Slashdot Mirror
Web Site Selling "Earthquake Forecasts"
waytoomuchcoffee writes "The San Francisco Chronicle is running a story on geoForecaster.com, a site that offers 'earthquake forecasts,' for a fee. California is looking into claims that the site is practicing geology without a license."
Damn those SCSI drives know how to vibrate
They have a page for Snake-Oil too, I've heard that's a cure-all for gullibility.
They should be looking at PayPal doing bank practices but not being recognized as a bank. I think that'd benefit more people than going after a forecasting site. Though, I have no problems with doing both.
California is looking into claims that the site is practicing geology without a license. If you let people practice geology without a license, The terrorists have already won.
Sounds like typical snake oil salesmen to me. But I wonder, why on earth do you need a license to practice geology?
using namespace slashdot;
troll::post();
Practicing geology without a license?? That's a joke, right?
if(!cool) exit(-1);
I would have gotten FP if my proxy wasn't so slow.
That's right bitches, PROXY! You will never silence me!
Gonad-Man 4evar!
Propz to teh fallen trollies
For some reason, this reminds me of the commercials for news where they go, "There's something in the hamburger, news at 11".
Try not. Do or do not, there is no try.
-- Dr. Spock, stardate 2822-3.
I had exactly the same problem here in NZ. My father consulted for mining groups for several years, and was caught for practicing without a license. While he was as trained as anyone working in the field, the fines (based on his income for the previous decade) were enough to destroy his business.
It sucks
Shit, thats easy. Just teather Anna Nicole Smith. 100% foolproof.
I forecast that this company will go out of business at 2.5 on the Enron scale.
Very popular slashdot journal for adul
...into CmdrTaco's eye, it registers a 9.9999999999999999999 on the richter scale
"practicing geology without a license"?!? Does that mean that the local rock & mineral club, of which I'm a member, could be violating laws when we go out and study the local terrain, searching for specimens?
I'm glad I don't live in California. I'd hate to learn that my checking the webicorders could be illegal.
Lemon curry?
Is that a joke or what, I am astounded that there is a law against someone "practicing geology without a license", I'm interested, what does it take to get a "geology license", how much does it cost? What if someone in japan hosted a site predicting earthquakes in california, what then? This whole thing seems rather bizarre to me.
I would expect such blatant racism on Fark, but on Slashdot? Mods please ban this asshole.
You people act like you've never seen a scam before.
...if you practice geology without a license. How many children have to die in earthquakes before you allow forecasters to do their jobs?
I care a lot.
Someone has to.
There's a big foot stomping down.
The caption reads, "It's funny. Laugh."
It's Funny. Laugh.
"California is looking into claims that the site is practicing geology without a license." claims? there is no such thing as a geology licese! kind of wish there was a licence necessary for programming though...
Be sure to send me your credit card information so you can be billed the $9.95 you owe me for this information.
Unfortunately, the reality is increasingly that many in the scientific profession achieve success by attracting public attention, the public often being a poor judge of true innovation. Why? Because if you aren't making wild claims, CNN just doesn't care, and how does a Professor that has made a genuine contribution to their field compete with an idiot that is on CNN every second day?
There are those that have made a career out of telling the media what they want to hear. People who gladly accept publicity even when their self-aggrandization hurts serious research in their field.
For the perfect example, learn a little about the career of Kevin Warwick, the UK's foremost pseudo-scientist.
Science and academia are increasingly a joke. For some time now, it has been more about public image than genuine contribution to the human understanding of the world around them.
The next earthquake will originate from their server room.
Suddenly you need a license to look at rocks?
"That's igneous right there.. no wait... yeah.. or at least I'm pretty sure... "
Stalagmite or stalactite?
slashdot.org has received a warning from regulators who have alleged that the service is a sham and amounts to wilful Denial Of Service attacks.
Our proprietary methodology is based on a combination of published research and our own in-house research, which has been under development for the past three decades. We use a multitude of techniques to derive our forecasts and take a global approach in our models. There is simply no way to accurately and reliably forecast earthquakes using a single methodology.
Meaning, there is simply no way to accurately and reliably forecast earthquakes at all.
The NEIC gives you all the data you need to predict your own Earthquake as accurately as any other internet-diploma geologist.
That's like living in Vancouver or Seattle and paying for a weather forcast that tells you it's going to rain.
NEVER tell nerds they are wrong. Remember, they can't handle reality: it's all in their head.
Sounds like this is geared more towards professional geologists than amateurs.
They're just going to be showing land which is here, and will be over there on a certain date...
"The Board of Registration for Geologists and Geophysicists examines and licenses geologists and geophysicists and certifies engineering geologists and hydrogeologists in California. Members do not receive a salary. These positions do not require Senate confirmation."
... we'll need to say IANAG, if California
cracks down on them for not being geologists.
Great this was my last hope for getting rid of the liberals in San Franpsycho. Oh well atleast I'll know when to buy my beachfront property in Sacramento.
It is unconstitutional to force another into a contractual agreement that violates their Constitution. I hold in my hands the Constitution of the United States of America. Look into the founding of the United States...WE ARE RECOGNIZED OF HAVING CERTAIN UNALIENABLE RIGHTS. Here comes the 10th Ammendment, stating that all rights not enumerated by the Constitution are reserved by the States (not State Government) or to the people ("the people" is an institution/organization: corpus corpus et al). Then here comes the unlawful ratification of the 14th Ammendment, stating that your rights are granted and are revokable as being a "citizen of the United States".
California is looking into claims that the site is practicing geology without a license."
The "state of California" appears to think that it owns earthquake waves and considers itself the granted entity to contract the study of earthquake waves. If that is true, then I'll be the first to issue a license to anyone that desires to harvest cheese on the moon.
After the unlawful ratification of the 14th Ammednment, the Constitution conclusivly comemorates that we:
"have certain unalienable rights reserved to the States or to "the people"...[that are not any more unalienable, they are granted by us after our long Revolutionary War to secure such, and we will revoke any rights as we see fit: including and not limited to your previously reserved right to forecast our earthquake waves without our permission]."
They already took your right of unresricted travel, as secured by the 10th Ammendment. They already regulate your freedom of speech over the internet; say somthing the FCC church or the ICANN church didn't allow you to say and they will terminate such. The "state of California" doesn't allow freedom of the press of earthquake waves and has claimed ownership of its territorial earthquake waves.
Is anyone still enjoying taking it up their a$$?
But I'm sure you already Gnu that.
to practice geology. Only a head full of rocks.
Take the cheese to sickbay, the doctor should see it as soon as possible - B'Elanna Torres, "Learning Curve"
Not being a liscenced geologist, I guess I can't say "look at all the rocks". They are merely alleged rocks until a state certifed geologist can certify my findings. California is weird, and everyday it seems like there is more crap to pile onto the compost heap of weirdness.
If Mr. Edison had thought smarter he wouldn't sweat as much. --Nikola Tesla
I was once investigated for practicing gynecology on a website.
My dog got freaky one day and hid under my desk for no apparent reason. Later, there was a small earthquake. Ever since, I've been issuing 'Brown Alerts' (her fur is brown) whenever she hides under the desk.
I didn't realize that her lack of a license was a reason to discredit her. *sigh* I'm really disappointed.
Anyone who has any basic knowledge of geology can predict where an earthquake is to occur. Siesmic gaps, the frequency of large quakes along specific fault zones, the actual types of fault zones. Facts: Large earthquakes occur along sliping faults like Western American coast. Larger quakes occur along subduction zones, where the plates slide under each other, such as lower north america, japan and northern india. We know where this stuff happens. It's just a matter of when. San Francisco is 10 years overdue for a magnitude 6-9. I've got my flashlights and water!
I'm skeptical, but it seems to me as if they've made it easy to test the accuracy of their claims. All we need is for one person to subscribe to their service, record all of their predictions for a few weeks, then compare it to public earthquake data from USGS.
Be sure to check that they don't change any of their data after the fact - i.e. that their archive of past forecasts really does match what they predicted. Also, make sure that the "updates" they make to each forecast aren't too dramatic - if the forecast says that there'll be an earthquake here in one week, but tomorrow the forecast says it will actually be 300 miles away from here, then it's a lot less useful as a resource.
Reading through their site, they certainly don't show many of the typical warning signs of a scam. Sure, it would be nice if they published their methodology, but it doesn't really matter. We can test the accuracy of their system as a "black box" without their cooperation, simply by comparing their forecasts to reality.
That said, here are my main concerns:
1. They claim 90% accuracy of earthquakes magnitude 6.5 and higher. Their sample period is three years - how many 6.5+ earthquakes have there been since 2000? Also, does this mean that of all earthquakes that did happen, they predicted them with 90% accuracy, or that of the earthquakes they forecast, they were 90% accurate? With the latter interpretation, they wouldn't be penalized for earthquakes they didn't forecast at all.
2. They give themselves a near-perfect score if they underestimate the magnitude of an earthquake. Is this reasonable? Should they get credit for forecasting a 2.5-3.5 earthquake if a 5.5 hits? Or a 7.5?
3. After the first time they forecast an event (up to a year in advance!) they update their prediction daily. After the predicted time window has passed, do they score themselves based on the most recent prediction, or based on the first prediction? One could imagine that their methodology really does work - but only two days in advance. To make it seem like they can predict much farther in advance, they just make up random predictions and update them daily, changing the closest random prediction two days before a "real" prediction says an event will occur.
Maybe Low Beam... er, Gray Davis, can get some money out of them to fix up our budget.
*sigh* He'll probably just advance them half our budget for forecasts and then wonder where the money went.
"Owning a computer is like having your very own TV -- with a built in radio!" - Ed Helms
Well, I guess there are indeed suckers born every min...
WTF. Since when do you need a license to practice geology?
How soon till i need a license to go take a piss in the toilet?
No license? Sorry, can't go. Need to renew it first.
Think its a joke?
We're practically there already!
You can tell how powerful someone is by the magnitude of the crime they can commit and be able to get away with.
There was a guy I heard on the radio a couple years ago that used rainfall patterns to predict earthquakes. With the basic logic that the longer a fault lays dormant the bigger the earthquake, he also figured in how much rainfall an area was getting and the position of the moon. Apparently, when the moon is closer to a water soaked area the faults tend to go.
sig.
I wonder if the real issue is not that they are practicing geology, in the sense that school science clubs and hobbyists do, but rather in the sense that they are selling their "findings', claim to know what they're doing, and yet don't seem to have any sort of certification, licensing, or references to prove it.
Not the earthquake bit. But I understand there's oil to be had in Texas.
'Pleasure is the Disease, Pain is the Cure' - Lilith
I can understand needing a licence to practice medicine or do brain surgery, because you could kill someone.. or even a licence to be an architect or a lawyer because you could seriously injure or screw people up if you go wrong.
But doing scientific research into the planet? What is there to screw up there? Measuring some vibrations is hardly life-threatening, even if the quake turns out to be.
Watch out, they'll make you get a licence to be able to program soon.
mogorific carpentry experiments
But governments aren't skilled professionals, they're organizations that threaten to use force on people who disobey them. That may be an appropriate thing to do for stopping rapists and murderers, but it's a highly inappropriate tool for society to use on unlicensed housepainters, or for people who want to operate businesses without paying protection money. Sometimes they're able to hire people who are competent enough to decide who should be licensed, but then sometimes they hire people like the bozos at the Patent Office. The classic argument for why they're necessary is licensing medical professionals - and while they _have_ driven lots of dangerous snake oil peddlers out of business, they've also radically raised the cost of medicine by limiting the supply of approved medical schools, thereby limiting the number of doctors allowed to practice, and by requiring many services to be done by full-scale doctors when a skilled nurse could do most of them just as well, and requiring that people get prescriptions from doctors to buy medicine when they're usually intelligent enough to make their own choices for most normal problems.
In this case, if the government wants to bust these guys for being a scam that's selling bogus services to the public, that would be perfectly reasonable, but instead they're threatening to bust them for not getting a state shingle on their wall.
Bill Stewart
New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
and we love you so much!
Example:
In 1989 a major earthquake struck the Bay Area. Most remember it for four reasons, the Cypress freeway collapsed, it was pseudo televised on the World Series, a section of the bay bridge collapsed, and the Marina District fell down and burned.
If I remember correctly, the Marina District was built on unstable ground, and that just amplified the quake waves. I want to say it was built on silt, sand, garbage, or just man filled in for more property.
So, giving what happened here, I would sure like to make sure the ground I'm building on is geologically stable.
I'm not a geologist, but I think I'm heading that way given the current state of the tech industry.
'Pleasure is the Disease, Pain is the Cure' - Lilith
Yep, probably a scam .. but cant they go after all those astrology/psychic/feng shui sites , not to mention all the pyramid sales schemes... those scam are worse cos they rip off people not companies
Looks like someone read this recently-posted-on-Fark article and decided to try the headline writing technique out =)
Coincidentally, that site also mentions Slashdot.
~Berj
- a story from the Southeast Missourian website that features several quotes such as this one from Professor Nicholas Tibbs of the Southeast Missouri State University in Cape Girardeau:
-
this entry on the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics" website identifying a Michael J. Kozuch, Ph.D. as being a geoscientist "with active interests in Honduras"
- this web page listing Michael J. Kozuch in an academic reference to a geological map of Honduras.
- this web page listing him Michael as part of the GNS of New Zealand. The GNS, formerly New Zealand's Geological Survey, which was transformed into a government-owned company in 1992. Interestingly, the GNS website hosts the New Zealand Hazard Watch web page which provides "up-to-date information on volcanoes, floods, landslips, tsunamis, solar activity and earthquakes." The GNS website identifies Mike Kozuch as one of two project leaders of the Quake Tracker Development Team. Perhaps Michael used his experience with this development to try to make a website that was more financially rewarding.
My take? Present knowledge and technology cannot forecast an earthquake. In my opinion anybody that represents otherwise is incorrect...you can be the judge of the reasons for their statements to the contrary."You can't accurately predict earthquakes," he said. "The technology to do that doesn't exist. It sounds like a scam to me."
Michael J. Kozuch; Ph.D., Peace Corps Volunteer Geologist, Honduras 1987-1990; Seismologist with the Institute of Geologic & Nuclear Sciences (New Zealand). Honduras Expertise: General geology of Honduras, tectonic modeling and geophysics Current activities: Investigation of novel approaches in seismic hazard analysis and collection of geophysical information relevant to Honduras, email: m.kozuch@gns.cri.nz Mail: P.O. IGNS, P.O. Box 1320, Wellington, New Zealand, Tel: 64-4-473-8208 (wk) or 225 Country Club Dr., San Francisco, CA 94132 USA. additional information at: http://www.gphs.vuw.ac.nz:80/staff/kozuch.html
They "predict" a couple and then they use their secretly hidden devices to cause them.
Remember that "earthquake swarm" in San Ramon (a town of burb claves just over the hills from SanFran/Oakland)??? I think it made national news (my dad in New England rang me about it)...
Perhaps that was their testing of their "prediction" scheme.
So they predict a few, then the maybe "predict" an 8.5 for San Francisco if they don't pony up perhaps Venture Capital.
"Maybe you're safe, see? Or maybe there's an earthquake coming to your mudda's house. Or your kid's school, see? So let's see some investment here or we'll predict the penninsula back to orchards"
Have you ever tried talking to a reporter about something vaguely scientific? I agree with you that there are people in the public eye who make a living out of hyping up the media, but I tend to disagree with a lot of what you've said.
As someone who's had to talk to the media on several occasions about scientific subjects, I can say with some certainty that with very few exceptions, the media does everything they possibly can to sensationalise whatever information you give it. They can and do chop and change whatever you might say to put whatever spin they want to put on it, and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it. Welcome to capitalism, where populist media determines public opinion.
I've seen lots of friends get caught out by this. It's easy to read people quoted in the paper as saying something, and assume they were stupid to say it. In actuality it's much more likely that the reporter's chopped out every second word and rearranged some sentances to get a desired effect as well as completely and absolutely ignoring the 95% of your conversation where you stressed that whatever you said was excessively unlikely. They will have done just enough to have quoted you completely out of context, but stopped mind numbingly short of mis-quoting altogether.
tremors may harm you earthquakes may destroy your home give US your money
Paying for earthquakes forcasts..!!???
Right so the poor will die poor and the rich get ripped off before total destruction and die poor..nice way of doing business. I wonder who is behind this kind of sick toughts??
Should earthquake forcasts not be a public right?
Since most (i guess 90%) of the research is done of our tax?
Geologists have yet to predict an earthquake. What are they afraid of - competition?
I predict a major earthquake in California within the next 10 years. Do I have to have a license also to say that?
Woohoo...too bad I didn't get this in my previous posting (see above). Check this out... this comes from the Earthquakes FAQ from the Quake Tracker website created by Michael Kozuch, the guy responsible for geoForecaster.com:
4. Can earthquakes be predicted?
It is possible to estimate where big earthquakes are likely in the next 50 to 100 years, based on geological investigations and the historical record of earthquakes. However, it is not yet possible to accurately predict the time and location of the next earthquake. A number of physical changes have been observed before some earthquakes, but the problem is that so far, no particular change has been noted consistently. Some scientists have observed changes in the earth's magnetic and electric fields, gas emissions, changes in water well levels, and changes in the levels of dissolved gases in groundwater. Other scientists have noted changes in the frequency and location of small earthquakes. A very small number of earthquakes have been successfully predicted. The most notable success was near Haicheng, China in 1975, where 90,000 people were evacuated a few hours before an earthquake that destroyed 90 percent of the buildings. The prediction was based on unusual animal behaviour and a greatly increased number of small earthquakes (foreshocks) that suddenly stopped. One of the animal observations was that snakes came out of hibernation and died due to the cold. It is now thought that this was caused by unseasonably warm weather. However, scientists wrongly predicted a major quake in Kwantung Province, and for two months millions of people lived in tents before authorities decided the prediction was wrong. Later in 1976, an unpredicted quake, magnitude 7.8, in China's Tangshan Province took 250,000 lives. It was the most disastrous earthquake this century. Since then, China has moved its resources away from earthquake prediction and into improving the earthquake resistance of buildings.
I find it highly amusing that the FAQ page of the website hosting his earlier project says you can't predict an earthquake. I guess he didn't read the page.
Firstly, I am not paranoid: I am constitutional and above all I reserve my right to have excessive consideration of others and how they may attempt to subjugate my unalienable rights. Hence, I am paranoid.
To my understanding, a "license" is a contractual agreement that expresses and implies conditional premise of activity in a granted matter, establish a proponent or authority for regulation. Before I pass you the crackpipe, let's see how my comprehension withstands the scrutiny of Dictionary.com:
License -n 1: a legal document giving official permission to do something [syn: permit] 2: freedom to deviate deliberately from normally applicable rules or practices (especially in behavior or speech) [syn: licence] 3: excessive freedom; lack of due restraint: "when liberty becomes license dictatorship is near"- Will Durant; "the intolerable license with which the newspapers break...the rules of decorum"- Edmund Burke 4: the act of giving a formal (usually written) authorization [syn: permission, permit] v : authorize officially [syn: licence, certify] [ant: decertify]
contract -A formal writing which contains the agreement of parties, with the terms and conditions, and which serves as a proof of the obligation
Certify -To confirm formally as true, accurate, or genuine.
quo warranto -[So called from the Law L. words quo warranto (by what authority), in the original Latin form of the writ
I copied+pasted the definitions that may have applied more correctly to the premise of law, of which dictionary.com has initially disagreed with me upon in their general premise, but looking further through Dictionary.com's pages I submitted will provide references to certain dictionaries of laws that discriminate on subscription to services by contract that may or may not questionably apply to properly *research* my authority of participation in law as to suggest their definitions by my sustained knowledge.
To begin with, I emphasize the applicability of a certification, as one provided formaly by oath provided by a consistently honerable institution. Beheld a license is simply a legal obligation that does not provide evidence of qualification, yet is in modern day being misused as utility(ies) of instrumentality in enforcing laws upon duress review of an Admiralty jurisdiction. Yes, a license is used to subjugate or abridge unalienable rights as granting a privilige or benefit (beneficiary) while a Certification is divinly of respect to authority esteemed by AN OATH OF WRITTEN TESTIMONY BEFORE A CONSISTENTLY HONERABLE INSTITUTION, THAT ESTABLISHES FACTS THAT MAY BE EXERCISED IN PROXIMITY OF EXERCISING QUALIFICATION FOR STATUS APPEALING TO A FOREIN PARTY WITHOUT PRE-JUDICE.
If you realy want to discover the frauds being perpetuated by the various organizations being defined in the pattern of "state of ______", then simply issue a "WRIT OF QUO WARRANTO *" and you may discover that no legal mechanism establishes their implied grant of regulation of a subjective premise.
I must call it a night. Good luck and thanks.
But I'm sure you already Gnu that.
I once got arrested for collecting stamps without a license!
...astrology. They'll probably set up a 900 number next: call in and let Lady AstraShake predict YOUR earthquake future.
Dark, Visibility - Low, clearing by morning.
Government licensing programs are an attempt by various groups to get the government to give their members a monopoly and interfere with their competition. Occasionally they're done with good intentions, but they're still offensive to a free society. Certification is a different matter - if I'm hiring someone to do something life-threatening or risky, I'd want a skilled professional to do it, and certifications by professional organizations can help me make that decision.
As much of an anarchist as I am, I have to disagree with you. When my partner and I registered our business with the state of Washington, it was just a matter of declaring our classification, stating our size, and giving a physical address and other contact information. The reason? So the state government can send out tax filing information, so they can make sure they get their chunk. In order to do business, you have to let the government know you're doing business, and that's all the license amounts to.
In other businesses, though, the license includes a lot more important shit. For instance, not anyone can go into the mechanic business. You have to demonstrate that you can dispose of used oil and other fluids in an environmentally safe fashion (dumping them down the toilet is unacceptable). In the food business you have to demonstrate that you can prepare, cook, and serve food without giving out food poisoning as a seasoning.
In the state of california, I can see a definite interest for the government to try to filter out shysters in the earthquake business. Ever yell earthquake in a movie theater? Well, start up a business and pass yourself off as a geologist and start selling people "earthquake insurance" because your methods have accurately predicted a 6 point earthquake in the next 6 months. After 6 months of work, pack up and go to a different county or something.
Now, I don't like the idea of having a master list of who's allowed to do business in a given area, but with people screaming left and right about how this or that business fucked 'em over, what's the state to do? Have you got a better idea?
I know, the state shouldn't have to protect people from their own stupidity, but a good shyster does his damndest to convince people no matter who they are. And just for the record, I don't much care for the fact that states protect people from their own stupidity as much as possible.
Like what I said? You might like my music
I copied+pasted the definitions that may have applied more correctly to the premise of law
Um, did you make sure you were licensed to do that with the content they provided you? Or is that covered by fair use? :)
Laugh, it's a joke.
Like what I said? You might like my music
The leaning tower of Pisa is a bad example as all evidence indicates that the lean is intentional, i.e. it was intentionally designed and built with a lean.
Thusands of California rockhounds are being rounded up for questioning and detention without lawyers for praticing geology without a license. Sources closest to the source say the mis-information these backyard geologists are dispensing is just plain horrific!
-- Many men would appreciate a woman's mind more if they could fondle it
Damn, everything must be freaking licensed. Do I need a license to walk my dog too?
Requring them to be licensed is idiotic. Just because someone claims to be a geologist doesn't mean the government, a lawyer, a home owner, a businessman or a company has to work with them.
Anyone should be able to be a geologist and perform geological studies/functions/business without being "licensed" by the government.
The onus should be on the government (or anyone else that uses geologists) to only *use* those that *do* have a licsense.
Think of it this way... Is the government going to step in and say "only certified CNAs are allowed to build computer networks or install a DSL modem". Of course not. But if you ran a company or an organization, you would probably want to make sure the one you *do* employ *is* a certified network administrator.
It's as simple as that. This is yet just more stupid laws and legislation and crap that isn't needed when a little common sense on the end of the "consumer" would resolve it all.
What if they have a license? It's entirely possible. Just cause you have a piece of paper doesnt mean you have scruples.
oops the quote was from a different url. But the usgs talks about that quake too. Somehow the url got a space inserted in it so it should be predict.html not pre ict.html.
p re dict.html
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/eq_
The actual interesting part of this story is that you have to have a license to practice geoplogy ?
they've been predicting tons of disasters for years, a lot of them geological- has california ever tried to stop them?
Creationists are a lot like zombies. Slow, but powerful and numerous. And they all want to eat our brains.
First of all, this sort of filth is not the image we're going for in this company. Not to mention your unfair and unlicensed use of "New Slashdot Math" (50% man + 66% horse?) outside of a karma related function. That could get us sued! I'm sorry, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to ask you to take your considerable artistic talents (and by that I mean cutting and pasting someone else's ascii art) elsewhere. You're fired. Pack up your things and be gone by 5.
Now then, why exactly is the man naked and the woman clothed?
I predict this article will be reposted as a dupe within the next 48 hours.
Of course, since this is a business you aren't allowed to share the predictions with anyone.
Gee, I'd like to help you out Mom, but the terms of service won't let me warn you about that big earthquake that's going to hit tomorrow... oops.
Excepting risk analysis for building and industrial siting which is based upon an understanding of the geology in the area in question, anything other than near perfect prediction is useless.
If one could say that there is a 50% chance of a major earthquake in Mexico city in 2005, what are the residents supposed to do? Spend a year at the beach?
Just like how you need a license for your pet fish, Eric.
I am unique, just like you, and you, and you...
California is looking into claims that the site is practicing geology without a license.
I didn't know you had to have a license to look at a rock...
Defrauding people, dumping used oil down the drain, and poisoning people are already illegal. Licensing programs simply assume that you're already guilty until you get your license.
but with people screaming left and right about how this or that business fucked 'em over, what's the state to do?
How about telling those people to grow up and make better decisions next time? Or tell them to get a lawyer and sue -- this used to be the reason we had courts.
Have you got a better idea?
Independent private-sector certifications. Need a mechanic? Look for the certification.
But if you trust your good friend to fix your car, you ought to be able to hire him to do it without fearing the license police.
"practicing geology without a license"???
What the hell? I would understand if they were investigating for fraud, but telling me I can't practice geology should get every boyscout and student busted. Idiots.
Malachi
http://www.google.com/profiles/malachid
The trouble with licensing iseen't the result - it's the requirements to get the license.
What sounds reasonable:
A) To get a licence, you must pass a really difficult test and demonstrate
B) To get a licence, you must spend 3 years in any crappy shool of your choice and work for 7 years of in the field,in any crappy compay of your choice.
For smart people like you, you'd rather hit the books and choose A. Unfortunatly most licensing requiremnts are closer to B.
My brain has an almost infinate capacity for knowledge*, but I onoy have 40 more years on this earth. I should not have to spend 10 years of my life in drudgery to get another license, when I could quickly learn enough in a year, with concentration, to pass a difficult test.
* except for spelling.
Moneyed corporations, non-working 'poor' and criminal prisoners are turning productive citizens into tax-slaves.
For instance, in the San Francisco (no irony intended) quake of 1989, the newspapers in the area reported a 50% increase in lost pet advertisements in the classified ads sections in the week leading up to the quake.
If these earthquake prediction distributors have developed a method to monitor this, they could issue forecasts that may actually be based on relevant statistics without "resorting" to geology or any other kind of science.
Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
government IS currently conducting an investigation into PayPal business practices. The FDIC oversight commision filed a complaint about their policies, for just what you are suggesting...More to follow...
Others have commented on the scientific reasoning why this happens, so I won't go into it. Growing up in San Francisco, this is something they told us about when I was in 2nd grade. The last big earthquake San Francisco had experienced was in 1906 ('89 was still in the future), and as you can well imagine, in the days of horse and buggy transportation, the animal response in the minutes before the earthquake was intense. Horses all over the city were flipping out.
"The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
Government liscencing programs are done to ensure the quality of technical government employees, despite your anecdotal complaints. When Kansas builds a highway, someone needs to design it, which includes all the overpasses. And in proper Confuscian manner, these liscenced are conferred by tests are written and standardized, not a general seal of approval by your local Doctor Approver General. These tests are usually designed by a professional organization in conjunction with the government. Its like a government approved certification, and prevents Governor BillyBob from appointing his idiot son to design the new capitol (which would need be evacuated when discovered that the dome is prone to collapsing).
Outside of the medical field, liscencure is only required by the government if you want to work for the government. Some employers often desire liscenced engineers, even though they don't contract to the government.
As far as I can tell, the real reason doctors are expensive is good old Malpractice Insurance. Insurance is expensive, but losing your practice with 20k left to go on your school debt is more so. The insurance company knows its shit. They reward the most court defendable medical processes with rate reductions. Of course, this often means more doctor involvement (which drives up costs), but your practice really really fears malpractice, far more so than the cost of hiring another doctor.
Our Government is errected to establish the peace needed for prosperity, not to oppress and tax. If you have any specific problems with government liscensure that aren't paranoid ramblings about the Man, please let us hear them. These things are done on a State to State basis, though many times there is a common theme.
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Open Source Sysadmin
Greta van Susteren and John Coale
l awyers Patrons; Greta: "I like the ethics"
T heir law firm is charged by the West Virginia's disciplinary board for active soliciting, which is illegal there.
(Also listed as John P. Coale or John "Bhopal" Coale http://home.snafu.de/tilman/prolinks/greta.html
introduced by husband John is New OT8
Greta is a legal talker for CNN, e.g. for the OJ trial, co-hosts CNN's "Burden of Proof".
Photos: http://home.snafu.de/tilman/prolinks/greta.html
(And their law firm did it *again* after the ValuJet crash !!) The lawfirm "Coale, Allen and Van Susteren" represented
Amy Frith on a lawsuit against Wellspring, a cult recovery facility.
Greta was named one of the 20 Outstanding Young Lawyers
in America by "American Bar Association Barrister Magazine."
John filed Lisa Marie Presley's divorce (CNN 18.1.1996),represent(ed) a Waco victims family member (Stan Sylvia),and is currently litigating against the tobacco industry !!!
Coale was also involved in Prozac and Ritalin litigationand praised CCHR: "They are very efficient and a wealth of information"
Should every citizen be expected to have the knowledge of a medical degree, mechanic and engineer? Hopefully not.
Of course there should be reasonable limits on liscencure, and your examples highlight the system's abuse. But what are some good guidelines for what gets liscenced and what doesn't?
I suggest:
1) The government itself has an interest in hiring qualified individuals.
2) A likelyhood of making poor long term choices, like prescribing antibiotics left and right.
3) Mistakes result in high societal costs, and these mistakes have commonly known solutions. In other words, there is a high correlation between passing a test and not making high risk mistakes.
There is another concern, however. We don't want to impose too great a cost on the economy through liscensure, so perhaps instead of liscence to practice we want liscence to practice with the government. This often occurs in Engineering fields, though some employers look for liscensure as a means of certification. What kinds of criteria should make a liscence manditory for practice? Perhaps:
1) The work is unreversable; once done cannot be undone
Of course these are just suggestions, and as such require both further inspection from myself and from others. We must be careful, we're not looking to justify the status quo, but to develop a new status quo.
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Open Source Sysadmin
Quit it with the anti-California rhetoric already.
The majority of US states regulate their geologists (Washington isn't on this list, but Washington hardly regulates anything).
Do any states register geologists?
Yes. Twenty-six states now have registration or certification laws: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Puerto Rico also has passed a registration law.
California has more geologic activity in it's little pinky then most states have in their whole territory. Regulation and strict building standards is why over 30-million Californians can survive in Earthquake, flood & landslide country. The potential for fraud is enormous. As a homeowner, I'm glad for the regulation.
In 1989, a 7.1 earthquake in the SF Bay Area killed 62 people.
By contrast, in 1999 a 7.4 earthquake hit Turkey, killing over 30,000 people. Turkey has regulation, but doesn't enforce it.
Yes, their are many factors involved in these two numbers, but regulation saved many lives in 1989.
"Can of worms? The can is open... the worms are everywhere."
Tear those delicate rectums to shreds!!
Thanks, you'll be helping /. alot.
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This exact comment has already been posted. Try to be more original...You already went there by alluding to it, you sick fuck. Get your cock out of Fido's anus right now!
Important Stuff:
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And the black women's hair-braiding fashion requires a cosmetologist's license to practice - they've busted people for practicing without one.
Bill Stewart
New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
It's not an social engineering question.
You see, the thing about a free society is that things just happen the way they happen. You don't have to trust that the smartest, deepest-thinking, most uncorrupted, luckiest, best-choice-making leaders are there to make everyone's choices for them.
I'm not saying you don't have the right answers to the licensing question. Even if you do (or especially if you do), you're not the one that makes the rules. The rules that a non-free society ends up with tend to harm one group of people unjustly for the benefit of another group. And the rules offer no guarentee of happiness for anyone except the guy who makes the rules.
Freedom is better.
I of course can't be bothered to go and look at the actual site - but it seems that if you have enough historical data (which certainly does exist), and you have a good current data feed - then it should be fairly easy to do something like this with neural nets.
It won't be 100% accurate, but it is certainly more accurate than many other methods.
On the other hand, if they just have it calling "rand() % 365" and then say there will be an earthquake that day... less reliable.
There are some odd things afoot now, in the Villa Straylight.
Add -ldl to the LDFLAGS in the Makefile.
It's the fees. The professional fees. Davis will tax anything the walks or breathes.
No object or enterprise escapes the review of State Franchise Tax Board in California.
In this particular instance, (geology license in state of CA), both A AND B are required... and the test is non-trivial. In the 80s and 90s CA had its own special test with horrendous pass rates like 20%; currently CA uses the ASBOG exam with 60-70% passes.
It also occurs to me that if one was drowning, yelling "Help! I'm drowning and I lost my bikini top" would probably be m
Amen.
I was wrong. $$$$$exyGal is a hot girl.
But if you advertise your consulting business as "software engineering", you probably are required to be licensed (in most US states). If you use the "E" word to sell professional services, you're practicing engineering and better beware of the licensing requirements in your jurisdiction. Even if it's not mandated by law, some contracts will require a PE's stamp on the design attesting to its adequacy. CYA? Sure it is, and I don't blame them one bit!
Why? Because the laws say so. Because you don't want unqualified people working on dangerous things they don't understand. Because the customer is wide-open to a lawsuit if they don't employ due diligence in selecting their contractors. You don't hire a javascript jockey to create an air traffic control system. Some jobs require verifiable qualifications in the name of public sfaety, and that's why we have registration laws.
Nice day to be out of town.