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Science of the coin-toss: Bias in Heads-or-Tails
MrSharkey writes " An interesting
article published in Science
News puts a new scientific spin on the outcome of the venerable
coin-toss. "A new mathematical
analysis suggests that coin tossing is inherently
biased: A coin is more likely to land on the same face it started out
on.""
heads they're wrong.
tails they're right.
rock-paper-scissors to settle the disputes of mankind. And drunken boxing.
-fren
"Where are we going, and why am I in this handbasket?"
And the society shaking ramifications of this are what? We will stop tossing coins before football games and instead have a pocket sized random number generator and the teams pick a number?
Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree. -Martin Luther
Yes you can, as long as the other person didn't hear this same story on NPR last week.
The House Between - Original Sci-Fi Series
Their preliminary data suggest that a coin will land the same way it started about 51 percent of the time.
I wonder what their margin of error was.
Back to One Potato, Two Potato. Well all know that is more accurate anyway.
Who gets the funds to study these projects? I want a grant to study something like this. I can probably come up with a hypothesis like, hmmm, do strippers like drunks or sober people more. Wheres's my money !!!
Stay tuned for new sig...
i'll finally be able to to be CT first in de_aztec :)
Wait.. that's how SCO is deciding who there gonna sue.
I just don't want to think about it!
Bias:
Heads 49.9%
Tails 49.9%
Coin becomes
Self-aware 00.2%
step one: go to vegas
step two: bet on coin flipping
step three: PROFIT!
wait, that makes too much sense.
dang
Jack the sound barrier. Bring the noise.
I never can catch the damn thing because I'm too clumsy, so it rolls around the floor a few times before resting on a side. Do that, and guaranteed random results. Especially if you have uneven hardwood floors like me!
Bored? Why not join a decent mess
I bet Rosencrantz is pissed to find this out!
No, the coin always hits the ground beacuse of gravity. Heads I'm right, Tails you're wrong ;)
You may toss.
Heads: I win.
Tails: You lose.
Nice and simple.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
That is, of course, unless you staple it to the back of a cat ...
maybe the folks over at SCO could help test this theory... they're all a bunch of tossers ;) ...I'll get my coat..
Yes, but cats always land on their feet! So what if you strapped a piece of bread, butter-side up, to the back of a cat? What then, Mr. Smarty-pants? I think the universe would implode or something due to the cosmic forces created by this new cat-toast hybrid.
There goes my "randomly" generated PGP key. @%*&!
I also reply below your current threshold.
You must be rather singy with the butter. I can drop it from any height, and it'll land butter side down. ;)
"I can't give you a brain, so I'll give you a diploma" - The Great Oz (blatently stolen sig)
I thought about it for a second, and given the odds of throwing 9 heads in a row AND doing it right as you were using it as an example were astronomically high - stood up and said 'that's a two headed coin'
Teacher smiled and proceeded to show the class the two headed quarter
This kind of energy theft is why, whenever I am flying, I like finishing a bottle of water at altitude, sealing the lid good and tight and then opening it back at ground level. I feel I'm just doing my bit to spread the entropy.
"The first thing to do when you find yourself in a hole is stop digging."
If you've ever watched a football game, you'll notice that the coin always hits the ground. This is done for at least one reason, to prevent tampering by the tosser
Look, referees have a hard enough time as it is, without you throwing in needless insults.
I only flip it to the other hand if it doesn't land on the side I want.
paintball
(1) look ay coin
(2) place bet
(3) flip coin
(4) not applicable
(5) profit
Seeing as it's the way Bush determines his foreign policy choices, I think it's very important to study the coin toss.
I'd post a longer comment but I'm heading to Vegas
an ill wind that blows no good
> Seeing as it's the way Bush determines his foreign policy choices,
> I think it's very important to study the coin toss.
Eek ! Somebody please hand him the coin with the "don't bomb" face showing next time !
25% Funny, 25% Insightful, 25% Informative, 25% Troll
Somehow I doubt this was the most expensive experiment ever...
Research materials budget - 0.01 $
...because these scientists are useless tossers.
hmm, are you suggesting that all I have to do is flip a coin and get tails to disprove the existence of gravity? :P
So basically, they proved that if you flip a coin so that it fully rotates 0 or more times, it will land on the same side it started.
Excellent! I wonder how it will land if you rotate it N+0.5 times! Oohh the mysteries of science...
Looks like I'll have to find a new way to make those all-important, life-changing decisions.
Once a coin is flipped and then covered so that the outcome is not revealed the coin is in both states*. Heads or tails.
Of course I 'll leave it up to the astute reader to determine if heads means the cat dies or if tails does.
-- Robert
* of course if you are standing on the border facing north between California and Nevada it also depends if you are left or right handed to determine which state it lands.
Bet this
shit. now how am I supposed to choose my response reliably to a slashdot poll?
I'm a geek, so I don't toss coins: I roll a d20 instead. 1-10 I win, 11-20 you lose!
"After about 10 floors, it doesn't matter what side of the cat you staple the bread to, nor does it matter if anyone's there to observe it or not."
- Schrodinger's Dog.
Eek ! Somebody please hand him the coin with the "don't bomb" face showing next time !
Thats not how it works in this white house. His coin says "Bomb Iraq" and "Bomb Syria"
If you have a mortgage, but your salary more than covers your mortgage payments, you do not have a deficit.
However, if you already can't pay your mortgage and your solution is to move to a bigger house in the hope that by stimulating the housing market it might get you a better-paying job, the US goverment would probably like to hire you as a financial adviser.
You are incorrect on this statement. Bush does not use a coin on complex decisions of this gravity. It show a total lack of politcal acumen to even suggest such a thing. First he must have his advisors input, by viture of this the EINY, MEINY or Rock, Paper, Scissors methodology of the forgien policy decision making tree. For example, The Iraq War had three proponents. Chaney, Rumsfeld, and Powell. In studing each persons initial, mind you initial, public position, it is obvious the EINY, MEINY method was used as Powell was out goes Y O U. So please give our government its due for having a more educated matrix of decision making.
> Ever seen the movie "Black Hawk Down"? Bill did that.
Bill produces movies ?
25% Funny, 25% Insightful, 25% Informative, 25% Troll
His wife is in a coma.
Actually, they turned out a profit by selling their research meterials on ebay:
For Sale: Unique Gambling Penny
Scientifically proven to land on tails 59.439% of the time!*
(*Special throwing instructions included.)
Quoth the Penguin, "pipe grep more!"
So if the govt job is better, the plan worked!
What I do is write comments on slashdot that look plausible but are actually completely false. I like to use pseudo-science and obscure jargon to back up my arguments and convince the unsuspecting spectator. Sometimes I just make unverifiable claims with an air of authority and that's enough to convince people to give me karma.
Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
"if the person who calls the toss never sees the face of the coin upon the toss,"
Then the coin was showing both heads and tails until you resolved it by looking at it.