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Is This The Big One?

Quivering Coward writes "There has been a marked increase in seismic activity in southern California in the past several days," pointing to this map from Caltech Earthquake Net, including a 5.2 and 3.6 this morning (2004/06/15). "Could this be the big one? Is 'the big one' ever going to happen? NASA is doing their part to predict the future of Earthquakes."

151 comments

  1. Run by Isosonys · · Score: 5, Funny

    Run go to another state. Just RUN. That is all Thank You.

    1. Re:Run by cluckshot · · Score: 5, Interesting

      You might have a day or two left but well the Lunar Land tides maxed on June 3 and they do it again on July 1. The orbital max differential occurred on June 15 for apogee and will max for Paragee on July 1. I suppose with all the other data we see a high probablility of Earthquake as the moon approaches the close approach on July 1.

      The time to be concerned is when the moon is at 45 Deg to the longitude of So. CA.

      Click on the Earth Moon Viewer Apogee/Paragee Calc if you want to check out the exact times etc.

      --
      Never Politically Correct ~ I prefer the facts If you don't like what I say, get a life, or comment yourself.
    2. Re:Run by barakn · · Score: 1

      Paragee? What the hell is that? I've heard of perigee....

      --
      "I'm so moist I'm sticking to the leather." -Kermit the Frog on The Late Late Show
    3. Re:Run by Urkki · · Score: 2
      • Does it make you feel *that* good to nit pick a one-letter mispelling of a word that isn't commonly used? I mean, you seemed to have understood him, knowing that he meant perigee. So what is the big fucking deal?

      Relax. Slashdot is an international forum with lots of non-English speakers. He (and I) may have guessed what was meant, but you can never be sure if you guessed right or really know how to spell it yourself, if the writer made a typo or didn't actually know how to write it, or if writer actually meant something the reader didn't know. It was in no way insulting reply, so I wouldn't be so fast to call it "little kid shit"...
    4. Re:Run by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      insignifigant things

      "insignificant".

    5. Re:Run by troon · · Score: 4, Funny

      "Nitpick" is one word. "Paragee" is a two-letter misspelling of "perigee", although "mispelling" is a one-letter misspelling of "misspelling".

      Oh, and it's "insignificant", not "insignifigant".

      I had to be so careful not to make any typos in this post! ;-)

      --
      Ydco co ,df C erb-y go. a Ekrpat t.fxrapev
  2. What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Bob+Cat+-+NYMPHS · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That's from the Caltech quake map link. heehee.

    Anyway. A couple of small quakes and /. starts worrying about the end of the world? Get real.

    1. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by elmegil · · Score: 2, Informative

      Absolutely. Look at the last week...there were actually more, bigger quakes, closer to civilization (the two noted above were over 40 miles from listed cities) a few days ago, and they haven't fallen into the ocean. And the overall trend doesn't appear to be obviously greater than the background levels.

      --
      7 November 2006: The day Americans realized corruption and incompetence weren't addressing 11 September 2001
    2. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Smidge204 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Unless, of course, all this shakin' is weakening the underlying structure gradually. (Small shifts, crack propagation, etc). If that's the case then your "it hasn't broken under worse conditions before, therefore it won't fail now" conclusion is, if you'll excuse the pun, a bit shaky.

      Of course, this only matters if you actually consider west California "civilization". For me this is all strictly academic. :)
      =Smidge=

    3. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by elmegil · · Score: 1

      Of course if that's your perspective, every one could be "the big one" and you might as well go find somewhere else to live.

      --
      7 November 2006: The day Americans realized corruption and incompetence weren't addressing 11 September 2001
    4. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by RockModeNick · · Score: 1

      I know Smidge, and he definatley knows his stuff when it comes to structural stability.

    5. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      A couple of small quakes and /. starts worrying about the end of the world?

      Southern Cali == world?? You must be American.

      Apart from Californians themselves, I wonder for how many Americans this will literally be the end of the world as they actually die from depression when the output of mindless TV shows and movies slows down to a trickle.

      -hadohk

    6. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Southern Cali == world?? You must be American.

      Leaping at every opportunity to trot out the tired old anti-US jokes? You must be yet another european with a deep-seated inferiority complex.

      As for those mindless shows, I've been over there and you take them far more seriously than we do here. Get over yourself.

    7. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Sure that's possible, but it's also possible that all of the shakin is releasing built up pressure, and you really need to be afraid when it stops shaking.

    8. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      The real question is What happens if everyone clicks on an earthquake at the same time?"

    9. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The OP didn't say anything and got +5. Why not make jokes?

    10. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by digitalsushi · · Score: 1

      Hypocritically, "American" could refer to just about anyone on either of the two continents in the Western Hemisphere.

      --
      slashdot: where everyone yells sarcastic metaphors to themselves to understand the issue
    11. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Get real."

      The average /. reader: Chicken Little in a tin-foil hat.

    12. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Oshkoshjohn · · Score: 1

      I am missing something. I fail to see any problems affecting the rest of the United States when California west of the Sierra Madre range slides into the Pacific Ocean.

      --
      Goddamned kids! Get off my lawn!
    13. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0


      It would be the end of the world for anyone caught up in you simp.
      Just as it would be the end of the world "The Big One",
      if you were a resident of Montserrat and the entire top blew off the mountain.
      It's not being Montserratian then is it?
      F no, it's called being human try it sometime you Fing worthless sack of self indulgent excrement.

    14. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by RedLaggedTeut · · Score: 1

      "What happens if everyone clicks on an earthquake at the same time?"

      Let's analyze this: Because of relativity, you have choose a point in spacetime where you measure same-time-ness from; So, clicking at the same time must be taken to mean that the click arrives at the same time at the quake server.

      For the click to arrive at the same at the quake server, the clickers have to be at the same internet distance, and the server has to be able to handle the clicks at the same time. You could use a rack of dual-core processor servers, but I suggest you simply use akamai.

      This gives the answer: The click is handled by the akamai server closest to your location, so what happens is, two or more earthquakes are spawned, one near you, one near every other one who clicked. Then every akamai server executes the click on his local earthquake.

      Of course, if you had quantum-entangled clickers, you ACTUALLY could click on a single earthquake at the same time, but all of your clickers have to be identical twins to each other - This is kind of unrealistic isn't it ?

      --
      I'm still trying to figure out what people mean by 'social skills' here.
    15. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Mark+of+THE+CITY · · Score: 1

      If everyone clicks on the earthquake at the same time, you slashdot the server, maybe.

      --
      The clearance system sounds logical. It is not. It is completely arbitrary. -- John Bolton
    16. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ya mean that all those greedy pigopolists will be shaken to death and then drowned....And ya mean that ole Bill Gates' 50 million dollar mansion will go down with it when the 'big one' has sympathy quakes up and down the west coast as well?
      Gee, what WILL we do without all those evil momopolistic barrators who have made the lives of ordinary people hell for so long. And GOD had to do it as no man had the guts.
      Ya know that ole Billy Gates even had the gall to demand a tax abatement for his personal residence ---his home!-- on the grounds that 'wealthy people' are 'above this kind of taxation'. Said he had prominent guests. Now what happens to you when you do not pay the taxes on your house, or if you claim a tax abatement on it to your local county authorities just like Gates did with the King County Commission in Washington State. WHAT WOULD THEY SAY TO YOU!?

  3. Answers to your question. by baywulf · · Score: 0

    Maybe. Yes.

  4. Yeah, sure.. by Lord+Bitman · · Score: 4, Funny

    NASA is "predicting" the earthquakes

    --
    -- 'The' Lord and Master Bitman On High, Master Of All
    1. Re:Yeah, sure.. by Pi_0's+don't+shower · · Score: 3, Informative
      Exactly. As every goephysicist knows, you cannot predict earthquakes! We just don't know enough about the Earth's interior, including all the fault lines and their details to be able to do it. The best we can do, as far as I know, is to detect tremors and give a few minutes warning. From the article above, here's what Arthur Smith has to say:
      Scientists cannot predict earthquakes - otherwise we would not have so many where hundreds or thousands of people get killed, like the recent one in Japan. After an earthquake has happened there are various things geologists look for in the "fault" associated with the earthquake to give some idea of how long it will be till the next one. The "fault" is the part of the earth's crust where two sections are sliding against one another in some fashion. To make real predictions would require knowing the location of all these faults (some kind of map), knowing at what stage each of them is (how much tension there is and what kind of things are preventing the fault from slipping) and how they interact with one another. Even for very carefully studied regions like southern California, we have only a very small fraction of the information that would be needed for true prediction.
    2. Re:Yeah, sure.. by strictnein · · Score: 1

      no no no... NASA is causing the earthquakes... not predicting them

    3. Re:Yeah, sure.. by Lord+Bitman · · Score: 1

      find the closest available human and get them to explain what you did wrong.

      --
      -- 'The' Lord and Master Bitman On High, Master Of All
  5. The future... is now by Jorkapp · · Score: 5, Funny

    We simply cannot allow this to happen. Should the ground open up, then the land of the molemen, warlocks, and trolls will release their soldiers! We must defend ourselves!

    Therefore, I am introducing the MWTDA (Molemen, Warlock, and Troll Defense Act). All citizens are to be in posession of:

    * Either a large water gun or a hose
    * Trashbags

    Military combat units are also under orders to be in posession of the forementioned weaponry.

    [Obligatory Simpsons Quote]
    [Homer] You're right. I'll deal with those murderous trolls.
    [Bart] Huh?
    [Homer] I mean - I'll deal with those murderous trolls. ...Later...

    [Homer] (Being chased) Marge! Lisa! Now!
    * Marge and Lisa open fire on the jockeys with a watergun and hose - incapacitating them.
    [Homer] Bart - Go get me a trashbag.

    --
    Frink: Nice try floyd, but you were designed for scrubbing, and scrubbing is what you shall do.
    1. Re:The future... is now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny
      Should the ground open up, then the land of the molemen, warlocks, and trolls will release their soldiers! We must defend ourselves!

      We're ready for them. When the ground opens up and the soldiers are released, buildings and freeways will collapse crushing them.

    2. Re:The future... is now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard, I mean everyone knows that it's the C.H.U.D.s that we should be worried about.

    3. Re:The future... is now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      we'll give you gold...

  6. All we have to do is ... by LennyDotCom · · Score: 4, Funny

    We just need to blow up a small tactical nuke deep within the fault line and we can save the west coast. Trust me I saw it in a movie once. It worked like a charm.

    --
    http://Lenny.com
    1. Re:All we have to do is ... by tdemark · · Score: 1

      I thought that caused the big one.

      What stopped it was adding a single point support approximately 2 meters in length.

      - Tony

    2. Re:All we have to do is ... by CamMac · · Score: 3, Funny

      The small tactical nuke encourages the fault line to shift earlier and with more force than it would have naturally.

      Most of California, despite heroic attempts by the Govinator, violently slips into the pages of History.

      Washington and all other civilization on the west coast is saved.

      --Cam
      PS The Church rewrites the Soddom and Gamora tale to reflect current events.

      --
      All jocks think about is sports. All nerds think about is sex.
    3. Re:All we have to do is ... by i+chose+quality · · Score: 1
      Washington and all other civilization on the west coast is saved.
      washington is on the west coast?
      --
      the computer is online
      i am not at it
      what a waste of ressources
    4. Re:All we have to do is ... by KnightStalker · · Score: 3, Funny

      Oh, I see you've somehow become aware of the secret state of Quincy, the east border of which extends from Vancouver, B.C. all the way to Cannon Beach, OR, and which (to the untrained eye) looks remarkably like the Pacific Ocean. *holds up mysterious chrome rod* Look over here, please...

      --
      * And remember, it's spelled N-e-t-s-c-a-p-e, but it's pronounced "Mozilla."
    5. Re:All we have to do is ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The state of Washington.
      You know, the Washington without the D.C. after it.

    6. Re:All we have to do is ... by Opie812 · · Score: 2, Funny

      washington is on the west coast?

      It will be after "The Big One"

      ...Washington DC that is...

      --
      I'm not a nerd. Nerds are smart.
    7. Re:All we have to do is ... by Jotaigna · · Score: 1

      So my piece of land in Ottisburg is increasing its value from now on? On a serious note, it has been earthquake activity along the plates down to the southern hemisphere. When the earth skakes, we all shake.

      --
      "The quality of life is inversely proportional to the number of keys on your keyring."
    8. Re:All we have to do is ... by rvw14 · · Score: 1

      Yes, I just talked to my dad in Seattle and Washington state is still there.

    9. Re:All we have to do is ... by palndrumm · · Score: 1

      Hell, with the right number of nukes in just the right place, and you could have a whole new west coast...

    10. Re:All we have to do is ... by MAXOMENOS · · Score: 1
      And all the venture capital will move from California to Seattle.

      "What about Portland?"

      "Please, be serious. Nothing happens in Portland."

    11. Re:All we have to do is ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Damn, and I was hoping to get the day off due to my workplace ceasing to exist.

  7. Belive it or not... by Repran · · Score: 5, Informative

    ...but a russion scientist actually predicted this would happen.

    --

    -- Contradictions only exist in thought - not in reality.

    1. Re:Belive it or not... by WhiteBandit · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Dr. Keilis-Borok's office is about 3 doors down from mine. :) I haven't actually talked to him yet though, but I'm working at UCLA this summer for the Southern California Earthquake Center.

      Interestingly enough, his team of researchers are claiming to have predicted the San Simeon earthquake in December and an earthquake last year in Japan. Using the same methods, he is predicting a minimum magnitude 6.5 to strike a 12,000 square mile region of Southern California by September 5th. This 12,000 square mile region is mostly in eastern California and the Mojave Desert (sites of the M7.3 1992 Landers and M7.1 1999 Hector Mines quakes).

      This M5.2 earthquake yesterday happened about 50km southwest of San Diego. It falls quite a ways out of the area of his prediction.

    2. Re:Belive it or not... by iCat · · Score: 1

      I submitted a story to /. on this a while back. Rejected - but there is more info here

    3. Re:Belive it or not... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In Soviet Russia the earthquake predicts you!

  8. Science Fiction can inform us by justanyone · · Score: 3, Interesting


    I read a really cool sci-fi story once where there was a big earthquake coming, everybody believed it and moved east of the line (into Nevada) and waited.

    The big day came, the earthquake happened, and ... it was the Eastern part that fell into the ocean. The western sliver remained, newborn cliffs towering above a freshly minted surf far below, having swallowed the rest of the U.S.

    Maybe those of us in Chicago ought to have life rafts, too (grin).

    -- Kevin Rice

    1. Re:Science Fiction can inform us by sadler121 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Maybe those of us in Chicago ought to have life rafts...

      Though this is a joke, one musten forget the The New Madrid Fault Line, and how many geologists believe that a "big one" could eminate from there, causing much more damage, seeing that buildings in the midwest aren't as "earth quake" proof as those in the west.

    2. Re:Science Fiction can inform us by isn't+my+name · · Score: 1

      >

      I believe that another issue with the potential damage that could result from a big quake is the ground. Much of the ground there is clay, deep soil and water. During an extended quake, some have predicated that it could become very quicksand like and simply swallow up structures.

      My dad is involved in the Civil Air Patrol and recently participated in multi-agency exercises to simulate a New Madrid Fault quake. If one happens there, it is likely to be much worse than a California quake because of the level of unpreparedness in the populace and the building codes.

  9. Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 days by Retric · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Could this be the big one? Is 'the big one' ever going to happen?

    Look earthquakes can and do happen. But as to the 'Big One' idea well I hate to be the one to point this out but the reason why that area is above sea level is because it floats so no earthquake can change that fact or sink it. As to moving out in the ocean yea it's going to happen but You me, our kids, our grand kids and our great great great great grand kids are going to be dead before that strip of land moves one mile from where it stand. And it's going to be a LONG time before 'the big one' that takes the last part of California out into the ocean.

    As to these earth quakes prediction a large earthquake well if you keep saying it's going to happen your going to be correct once and wrong 1000's of times. I think we are going to see a 6.8 +/- .1 some time between March 26, 2005 and March 28, 20005. So yea I am going to be correct but is that useful... sure if your building something but as to taking a vacation to miss an earthquake well I suggest moving.

  10. The Continental US by spoonani · · Score: 1

    Think of what this would do to the Continental US as we know it. Alas, no more would there be 10-10 numbers that call California, no white meat chicken at the Los Angeles Taco Bell, and higher prices prevailing on all laundry machines at the San Fransisco Sears!

  11. Earth moved by sckeener · · Score: 4, Funny

    Shhh...my wife thought it was me.

    --
    "Only one thing, is impossible for god: to find any sense in any copyright law on the planet." Mark Twain
    1. Re:Earth moved by Prowl · · Score: 1, Funny

      hmmm

      a slashdotter, with a 5 digit account number (give or take), getting regular sex

      i don't believe it...

      --
      That man tried to kill mah Daddy
    2. Re:Earth moved by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Wife: Do you smell something?
      Me: No, I think it was... an earthquake.
      Wife: ???
      Me: Yeah, earthquakes release gases trapped deep inside the earth.
      Wife: *gag*
      Me: Seriously. That explains the rumble too.
      Wife: *passes out*

    3. Re:Earth moved by Tstuckel · · Score: 1

      And I thought I was simply that good in bed...Did you ever think that viagara(sp?)would cause eathquakes???

      --
      When the Dragon asks you to lunch, you might ask what will be for lunch before accepting.:)
    4. Re:Earth moved by pavlov112 · · Score: 3, Funny

      What about "wife" implies regular sex? I rather thought it was the opposite...

    5. Re:Earth moved by el-spectre · · Score: 3, Funny

      Heh... I like how a 6 digit # is '5, give or take'. Imprecise to an order of magnitude!

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
    6. Re:Earth moved by sckeener · · Score: 2, Funny

      As one of my single friends puts it:

      'I probably get laid as often as you, but at least I get a different girl each time.'

      --
      "Only one thing, is impossible for god: to find any sense in any copyright law on the planet." Mark Twain
  12. Beachfront Property by jazman_777 · · Score: 1

    In Yuma. Buy it now, while it's still cheap!

    --
    Slashdot: Failed Car Analogies. Amateur Lawyering. Anecdote Battles.
  13. Despite repeated warnings... by ObsessiveMathsFreak · · Score: 1

    ..Most buildings in california are not earthquake proof.

    Also most web servers in California are not /. proof. When will the next effect hit? ... SOON!

    --
    May the Maths Be with you!
  14. Hopefully... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    too much crap coming from Hollywood these days...

    1. Re:Hopefully... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "...too much crap coming from Hollywood these days..."

      Unfortunately, excrement tends to float, so it seems Hollywood has been constructing their own life-raft for years.

  15. So what? by dacarr · · Score: 4, Interesting
    It's an earthquake. BFD. Yes, during Northridge, it levelled an apartment building, knocked over a freeway interchange ramp or two, and toppled the big screen at Anaheim Stadium, but that was really it. The damage and death toll for that six pointer was trivial. And ten years ago, I heard it predicted by seismologists that there would be a 50/50 chance of a major earthquake hitting within the next thirty years.

    I mean, come on, people, are we expecting The Big One to cause the entire state of California to break away at its borders, and we start floating around the Pacific Ocean in some sort of bad remake of Space:1999, with Arnold Schwarzenneger in charge of Earth Base California or something?

    --
    This sig no verb.
    1. Re:So what? by Telastyn · · Score: 1

      For Northern California I've heard numbers closer to 90-95% for the next 30 years.

    2. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      See ya down in Arizona Bay...

    3. Re:So what? by sporty · · Score: 1

      I mean, come on, people, are we expecting The Big One to cause the entire state of California to break away at its borders, and we start floating around the Pacific Ocean..


      We can only hope ;)
      --

      -
      ping -f 255.255.255.255 # if only

    4. Re:So what? by WhiteBandit · · Score: 1

      This earthquake yesterday was really no big deal at all, especially since it was located 49km off the coast of San Diego.

      However the Northridge Earthquake was one of the costliest disasters in United States history. There were also 51 deaths attributed to that quake too.

      Revised predictions have an even greater probability of a large earthquake happening in Southern California soon. 85% chance of a M7.0 or greater happening within the next 30 years.

    5. Re:So what? by WhiteBandit · · Score: 1

      For Northern California I've heard numbers closer to 90-95% for the next 30 years.

      62% chance for a M6.7 or greater striking the San Francisco Bay area in the next 30 years.

    6. Re:So what? by Jmechy · · Score: 1

      BFD?! I'm trying to sell my house, we have just spent 4 months and thousands of dollars on it. If "the big one" occurs now, we have just lost literally months of man-hours and 100's of thousands of dollars.

    7. Re:So what? by dacarr · · Score: 1
      Oh, great! GREAT! Somebody here WANTS Gerry Anderson to produce it!

      I can see it now. "California: 2004".

      (Cue melodramatic funky yet inappropriate scifi theme from Space:1999)

      --
      This sig no verb.
    8. Re:So what? by dacarr · · Score: 1
      In which cace, you're in good company, since there are going to be a bunch of makeshift Red Cross shelters and millions in insurance payouts. (You did take out the earthquake policy, didn't you?)

      Point here I'm trying to make is that, invariably, while they are certainly costly, the damage tends to be relatively trivial - just incredibly messy. We've weathered worse, and we've recovered from FAR worse (1906 SFO, anybody?). Lives can't be replaced, but buildings can - and it doesn't take that long.

      And it could be worse. It could be a LOT worse. It could snow in the Los Angeles area. And stick. I think that would be exponentially more disastrous than any earthquake. I mean, we're talking about a population who can't handle driving in the rain. You do the math.

      --
      This sig no verb.
    9. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      I mean, come on, people, are we expecting The Big One to cause the entire state of California to break away at its borders, and we start floating around the Pacific Ocean in some sort of bad remake of Space:1999, with Arnold Schwarzenneger in charge of Earth Base California or something?

      No, we're *HOPING*.....

    10. Re:So what? by ggwood · · Score: 1

      But in total, earthquakes pale in comparison to the dollar and life damage caused by hurricanes - because hurricanes are far more common then earthquakes of equal destructive power.
      __________________________________________ ___

      --
      a war on terrorism? How can we end a war on a method?
    11. Re:So what? by ggwood · · Score: 1

      In the state of California, you can get earthquake insurance through the state. As far as I know you have to go through an insurance company to get it. It's probably going to run you US$50-100 per month, depending on the risk of your location. Can you afford not to have it?

      I have heard there are types of natural disasters (volcano? landslide? avalanch?) which a person just cannot get insurance against. At least in California, earthquakes is not one of them.
      ___________________________________________ ___

      --
      a war on terrorism? How can we end a war on a method?
    12. Re:So what? by TheLink · · Score: 1

      Basically if the risk is likely to affect "everyone" at the same time then they won't bet - coz if it happens they'd have to pay to tens of thousands of insured at the same time.

      Unless of course the number of insured isn't going to be that high - they can usually refuse to make further bets.

      So either few are insured, or the insurance company thinks only a relatively few of the insured will claim in event of an earthquake.

      --
  16. Not Southern Cal by sfjoe · · Score: 4, Informative


    Many researchers believe the next major earthquake will be in northern California, not southern California. One reason is that the San Andreas fault 'creeps' in the south, slowly releasing energy (so the theory goes). In the north, the San Andreas is locked and last moved in 1906, when it released all its energy at once, devastating San Francisco.

    --
    It's simple: I demand prosecution for torture.
    1. Re:Not Southern Cal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What about the Santa Cruz / San Francisco earthquake of 1989? I think that counts as pretty big. Don't you remember the people trapped when the upper deck of the freeway fell on the lower deck?

    2. Re:Not Southern Cal by WhiteBandit · · Score: 2, Informative

      The San Andreas fault demonstrates aseismic creep in the central section of the fault, just north of Parkfield. Another area this occurs is around Hollister.

      The last time the San Andreas fault moved in Southern California was the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake.

      The last time it moved in Northern California is the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.

      Despite this, both areas have a high potential for devastating earthquakes. (The section around San Francisco itself last moved in 1908. The Loma Prieta quake was centered near Santa Cruz, quite a ways south of SF).

    3. Re:Not Southern Cal by dgatwood · · Score: 1
      Yes, it was big, but that wasn't the San Andreas fault. Faults are kind of like a crack in a piece of glass. You have the initial crack and then you'll sometimes see fracture patterns spreading out sideways from that crack.

      The '89 quake was on just such a secondary fault, the Hayward fault, way up in the Santa Cruz Mountains near Loma Prieta Peak (hence the earthquake's name).

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  17. Ahem... by linuxwrangler · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...How the bleep did this get by the editors. All this is is links to a couple of generic sites on earthquakes and some vague and unsubstantiated assertion about increasing frequency.

    The first link points to a recent earthquake map that has been available for ages. It's on my bookmarks to look at when there is an interesting event.

    The other is an article on NASA earthquake research.

    Nothing in either points to an increase in frequency and indeed typing "earthquake" and "increase" into Google news turns up no interesting articles.

    I guess those top-secret black government agencies have done a great job of keeping this monumental (non) story out of the news.

    --

    ~~~~~~~
    "You are not remembered for doing what is expected of you." - Atul Chitnis
    1. Re:Ahem... by GeoGreg · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Agreed. Not much news here. Plus, there is no particular reason (that I know of anyway) to believe that the next Big Quake will be preceded by increased seismic activity.

    2. Re:Ahem... by el-spectre · · Score: 1

      Well, there is some pretty decent evidence for "fore-shocks", or a swarm of activity immediately before SOME big quakes.

      Unfortunately, this phenomenon isn't always present, and significant fore-shocks (3,4,5 on the richter scale) tend to happen within hours of the bigger hit. There MAY be a swarm of small (2 or less) quakes for weeks beforehand, but these are tough to distinguish from regular background noise (and in fact may be just that.).

      I live in earthquake country, and don't worry about it too much. At least in california, if you have time to be scared, you're probably ok. The poor SOBs who get crushed rarely survive 30 seconds.

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
  18. The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by bersl2 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    What about the New Madrid fault? It's overdue for a 7+ magnitude earthquake, and it's in the middle of America.

    1. Re:The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by GeoGreg · · Score: 2, Informative

      Nobody really knows if the New Madrid system is "overdue", as it's difficult to discern a pattern from only one datapoint (the 1811-1812 series of earthquakes).

    2. Re:The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by EvilTwinSkippy · · Score: 1
      I guess it's slacking off.

      It's not hard to see why. With the current administration everything is nobody's fault. I am having trouble finding that one on the map, though.

      --
      "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
      --Dr.W.Edwards Deming
    3. Re:The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by Kelson · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually, I was just reading about the New Madrid system a few days ago. They've found evidence of past massive quakes in the area around AD 800 and AD 1300, suggesting a possible 500-year cycle.

      If that's the case, they're probably safe for another 300 years.

    4. Re:The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by GeoGreg · · Score: 1

      This may be related to the work of Susan Hough and others, who have done much in recent years to improve our understanding of the New Madrid 1811-12 series. Paleoseismic work is intriguing, for sure. Of course, one of my geophysics profs says that 1 data point is a finding, 2 is a trend, and 3 is a mess... ;)

  19. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by somapoi · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Umm ... .it floats on magma .. not on the ocean.

  20. No It's not the one. by EvilTwinSkippy · · Score: 3, Informative
    Wrong fault line. (The 5.5 Earthquake was out in the Pacific.)

    In fact, the earthquake patterns on the map show that today is a pretty ho-hum day.

    Nothing to see here. Move along.

    --
    "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
    --Dr.W.Edwards Deming
  21. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by CodeMonkey4Hire · · Score: 2, Funny

    So if California floats... like wood. And wood burns... like a witch... it's a witch!
    Burn it! Burn it! Burn it! Burn! Burn!...

    --

    Let's go Hurricanes!!! 2006 Stanley Cup Champions!!!
  22. One great big, festering neon distraction by georgewad · · Score: 3, Funny

    I've an idea to keep you all occupied:
    Learn to swim

    --
    Karma: It's not just a good idea. It's the law.
  23. Learn to swim by Discoflamingo13 · · Score: 3, Funny

    I'll see you down in Arizona Bay.

  24. If you keep making predictions... by Chemisor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you keep making predictions, eventually one of them will come true.

    1. Re:If you keep making predictions... by bw5353 · · Score: 3, Funny
      "If you keep making predictions, eventually one of them will come true."

      Bah, that's far too much trouble for me. It is much easier to go for "If you keep reading other people's predictions, eventually you will find one that turned out to be true."

    2. Re:If you keep making predictions... by node+3 · · Score: 1

      If you keep making predictions, eventually one of them will come true.

      This is his first (public) prediction. Your adage only applies after many predictions have been made (and where too few have been correct).

    3. Re:If you keep making predictions... by Alsee · · Score: 2, Funny

      I predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of earthquake predictions.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
  25. Just had one in the bootheel of MO by farmy4700 · · Score: 1

    Strange because we just had a 3.4 in the bootheel of MO 2 nights ago.

    --
    The phone is ringing, I cannot linger, watch out butt here comes my finger.
  26. Eh? by torinth · · Score: 2, Informative

    What?

    I'm sorry, but since when is a tiny 5.2 earthquake followed by an aftershock at the same location even notable?

    5.2's are nothing in Southern California, and you can see a map that looks exactly like that maybe once every month or two.

    I imagine that what probably threw people off is the extra earthquake that was originally reported by the USGS. That one was supposed to be centered near Lancaster, or some such, but it wasn't long before they took back the claim on grounds of instrument error.

  27. Sorry about that.... by clintp · · Score: 4, Funny

    Those "earthquakes" are actually just the collective sobbing and shaking of the Los Angeles Lakers fans.

    --
    Get off my lawn.
    1. Re:Sorry about that.... by el-spectre · · Score: 1

      Shit, more like a harmonic resonance caused by millions of us shaking our heads in disbelief...

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
    2. Re:Sorry about that.... by dont_think_twice · · Score: 1

      Personally, I was jumping up and down for joy. But I am in the midwest, so it probably didn't cause any tremors.

    3. Re:Sorry about that.... by el-spectre · · Score: 1

      Joy that the pistons won, or just general laker hate?

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
    4. Re:Sorry about that.... by dont_think_twice · · Score: 1

      Joy that the Pistons won. The fact that it was the Lakers that lost was just icing on the cake.

      I still remember "Vinne passes to Isiah, Isiah passes to Vinnie - he shoots AND HE SCORES!" over ten years ago. It has been a long time to wait for another one.

    5. Re:Sorry about that.... by sulli · · Score: 1

      And the cheering and stomping of feet of the civilized world. GO PISTONS!

      --

      sulli
      RTFJ.
  28. Slight New Madrid shake yesterday. by Mr.Sharpy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    There was a small earthquake near New Madrid, MO just yesterday. It was only 3.7 (I think), but it still serves as a reminder that its there and active. Interesting that there was a small quake there while all these quakes have been occuring on the West Coast.

    Recent US Earthquake Activity

    1. Re:Slight New Madrid shake yesterday. by CaptainCarrot · · Score: 1
      Interesting that there was a small quake there while all these quakes have been occuring on the West Coast.

      Actually, you'd be hard-pressed to find a time when earthquakes weren't occurring on the West Coast. Any New Madrid quake is going to coincide with California low-level seismic activity. It's pretty routine around here.

      --
      And the brethren went away edified.
  29. Why, a quake goes off, of course. by El+Jynx · · Score: 2, Interesting

    There's a trigger there, see. Their server si co-linked to several underground sets of renewable explosives and a gargantuan rocket turbine buried in the moon, the combination of which allows Quake Control to within a few square miles.

    Oh, come ON. NONE of you have ever wondered why the moon only shows us one face? What're the odds?

    Not yet available for Q3.

    --
    A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it well worth the effort.
    1. Re:Why, a quake goes off, of course. by TwP · · Score: 3, Informative

      NONE of you have ever wondered why the moon only shows us one face? What're the odds?

      The moon is gravitationally locked to the Earth's rotation. Tidal forces from Earth's gravitational field have induced a bulge in the moon; this buldge always points along the line from the center of the Earth to the center of the moon. At one time the moon was rotating faster then it is now, but the moon had to bend and flex as this bulge shifted around. Energy was lost to friction (rocks grinding against one another), and the moon's rotation slowed until it was gravitationally locked to the Earth.

      But don't take my word for it, I'm just a rocket scientist.

    2. Re:Why, a quake goes off, of course. by the_consumer · · Score: 1

      You'd think a rocket scientist would have the smarts to recognize sarcasm...

      --
      "If you're thinking what I'm thinking, you're right." -
    3. Re:Why, a quake goes off, of course. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'll take pWn3d for $1000, Alex.

  30. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by microTodd · · Score: 1

    March 28, 20005

    Looks like I have plenty of time to prepare...

    --
    "You cannot find out which view is the right one by science in the ordinary sense." - C.S. Lewis on Intelligent Design
  31. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 1
    That's so incredibly wrong that it's not even funny. Imagine the (likely) case where the fault isn't exactly vertical. There are two California-in-the-ocean scenarios:

    1) A cross-section of the fault slants like this, as seen facing North:

    California / Rest of US
    If that fault served as a major support for that edge of the tectonic plate, and during a quake the western plate slides further west, then it will also likely slide down the slope of the fault.

    2) The fault slants like this:

    California \ Rest of US
    If the quake results in the plate bearing California to move inland, then it will be subsumed by at the faultline.

    If you don't believe that faultlines can cause land to rise or fall in elevation, then I guess you also don't believe in these "mountain" things that people keep talking about.

    --
    Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
  32. Invitation by Jahf · · Score: 1

    Hey, if Silicon Valley happens to get toasted, y'all are invited to the Boulder/Denver area. Lots of space to grow and far more stable tectonics. We've got a large number of unemployed tech workers leading to a great pool to hire from. All you folks used to biking around Cali would love it here. Oh yeah, and by 2007 we should have a BART-style rail system (we already have a great bus network).

    I hear Austin might actually have a better labor pool and cheaper land, but seriously, it's HOT and not alot of outdoor activities for the geek types.

    --
    It is more productive to voice thoughtful opinions (reply) than to judge (moderate) others.
    1. Re:Invitation by TwP · · Score: 1

      Hey, if Silicon Valley happens to get toasted, y'all are invited to the Boulder/Denver area.

      SHHHH!! BE QUIET!!
      We don't want the housing prices to keep rising, and the ski slopes are crowded enough!

    2. Re:Invitation by Jahf · · Score: 1

      No no no, I own a home ... near a (small not well known) ski area ... I DEFINITELY want prices to go up :)

      --
      It is more productive to voice thoughtful opinions (reply) than to judge (moderate) others.
    3. Re:Invitation by TwP · · Score: 1

      No no no, I own a home ... near a (small not well known) ski area

      Would that be in Nederland up near Eldora?

  33. My first time was good by ee_moss · · Score: 2, Informative

    That 5.2 was my first earthquake, and it wasn't much. Building kind of shook a bit. Everyone went on with work like nothing. Some people didn't even notice.

    1. Re:My first time was good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How far were you from the epicenter? The perceived strength goes continuously from "very strong" to "wasn't much" to "didn't fell it" depending on distance.

      You can't say "that's how a 5.2 feels" just because you felt it. 5.2 is an absolute measure, what you felt was local and distance dependent.

    2. Re:My first time was good by stefanlasiewski · · Score: 1

      Hey, that's a good intro to quakes then. Most quakes are like that. Things shake a big, nothing big happens. Most quakes sound like a big truck drove down the street.

      However, note that you were 50 miles from the epicenter, and you are on a different faultline. That severely decreases the dramatic effect :)

      If you and the 5.2 were on the same faultline, it would be much more intense.

      We felt the San Simeon earthquake in the Bay Area, and we were a couple hundred miles away!

      --
      "Can of worms? The can is open... the worms are everywhere."
  34. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by hopemafia · · Score: 2, Informative

    And that is also wrong.
    You forgot the real scenario:

    California | or / or \ Rest of US...doesn't matter

    It's a strike slip fault...California is moving north relative to the rest of the continent at a rate of a cm or two per year, so give it a while (millions and millions of years) and California will border Alaska.

    Of course that's a massivly simplified view, but it adequately descibes the situation.

    There is absolutely no danger of California ever sinking into the Pacific (sadly), the best we can hope for is global warming melting the icecaps and raising sea level...that would cover most of CA's population with water.

    --
    If God had had a computer it would have taken him 7 months to create the earth...if he even bothered to do it at all.
  35. A map showing the location... by mzs · · Score: 1

    is on this page.

  36. Duct Tape by gCGBD · · Score: 2, Funny

    Maybe if you left coast people unrolled some big rolls of duct tape from the coast up to the mountains you could hold it together and avert the worst of the disaster. If you have some extra, cover over the primary fault lines really well as well ....

    --

    O=='=++
  37. If you want to know whether this is the... by exp(pi*sqrt(163)) · · Score: 0, Troll

    ...'big one' can I suggest posting on a seismologist's forum? /. is populated by geeks who aren't really expert in this field and the only quake they're likely to know about is the one they use to benchmark their graphics cards.

    --
    Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
    1. Re:If you want to know whether this is the... by xactoguy · · Score: 1

      Why was this modded as troll? He makes a good point, one that isn't trolling at all.

      --


      And so we go, on with our lives
      We know the truth, but prefer lies
      Lies are simple, simple is bliss
  38. Why is it "temblor" and not "trembler"? by Pvt_Waldo · · Score: 1

    Why is it that earthquakes are refered to as temblors and not tremblers? I mean really! The earth TREMBLES during a TEMBLOR!?

    I'm tembling with fear over the answers or moderation this post may get.

    1. Re:Why is it "temblor" and not "trembler"? by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      well, just so you're not trembloring with fear, that's not good for you

  39. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes, its really sad that the 6th largest economy in the world will not fall into the ocean in a cataclysmic earthquake... I hope you weren't planning on using it.

  40. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by CaptainCarrot · · Score: 1
    1. Land doesn't float on water. It's denser than water. It *does* float on magma, but that fact alone doesn't account for land above sea level. Even the ocean floor floats on magma.

    2. The California plate is moving north, the San Andreas being a strike-slip fault rather than a nascent rift valley. Its evenutal fate is to move to Alaska rather than head out into the Pacific.

    3. And what qualified you to make earthquake predictions anyway? You don't seem to know much about the geology around here.

    --
    And the brethren went away edified.
  41. Best website for quake prediction info by nightherper · · Score: 2, Informative
    http://www.syzygyjob.com/

    Be sure to put on your foil hat, as Jim Berkland is a frequent coast to coast guest

    --

    ...

  42. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by Retric · · Score: 1

    I said it floats I did not say it floats on the ocean. Thanks for playing but ya lost that reading comprehension test.

    Now we can say it floats, it floats on magma or the fact that the weight of the ocean + the weight of the rock under it float's on magma in such a fastion that the less dence land floating on magma is in a state of balance.

    PS: I am just messing with ya. I should have been more clear.

  43. West Coasters by jtev · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    It is amazing the arrogance of West Coasters. Here in the midwest we have a big tornado on a fairly regular basis, and it earns 30 minutes of news time after the fact, and ruining one evening before hand, none of this pissing and moaning about Oh, is this the big one, how am I ever going to handle going through the Big One. If you're that worried, move. there are plenty of places that don't get earthquakes. How is this News for Nerds, how is this Stuff that Matters?

    --
    That which is done from love exists beyond good and evil
    1. Re:West Coasters by Kelson · · Score: 1

      Frankly, I doubt the story was posted by a West Coaster - or if it was, it's someone new to the area.

      Those of us who actually live here didn't do much more than look up, say "Hey, the floor's moving" and go on with our lives.

    2. Re:West Coasters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here in the midwest we have a big tornado on a fairly regular basis,

      Tornados kill more people every year then we have lost in California earthquakes in the last decade. Last year 5 people died in a big earthquake. Northridge quake (1993) killed 50 because it affected the LA area, which has 10 million people. Loma Prieta killed about 50 also because it affected the SF Bay Area (about 8 million people) pretty heavily. Since then, it's been pretty quiet.

      These statistics are pretty good considering how many people felt the quake. In Iran and Turkey, similar quakes killed 50,000 people.

      How many people die in the states from tornados every year?

      I'm pretty amazed by your arrogance as a midwesterner, or your ability to distinguish stereotypes and realty. I doubt the article submitter has been in California very long.

      And every time there is a tornado you people keep pissing and moaning about tornados. if you don't like tornados, there are plenty of places that don't get tornados.

    3. Re:West Coasters by jtev · · Score: 1

      Um, thanks for SUPPORTING my argument. And I have never whined about tornados. Nor do I know anyone who has. Coasters are terrified of them, we just accept them as a fact of life, go into the basement and life goes on. It just pisses me off when people whine about environmental hazards of places they chose to live.

      --
      That which is done from love exists beyond good and evil
  44. what most people don't realize by sydres · · Score: 1

    especially tabloids is that in california the seaside plate is moving under the continetal plate
    if anything happens california will still be there
    just a little higher (inches or feet)

  45. Script revision: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Might I suggest changing: "Most of California, despite heroic attempts by the Govinator, violently slips into the pages of History."

    to: "Most of California, INCLUDING heroic attempts by the Govinator, violently slips into the pages of History."

    We don't want to leave any loose ends.

  46. Stop Plate Tectonics! by wcrowe · · Score: 2, Funny

    I am outraged that neither political party is doing anything about plate tectonics! How many earthquakes must occur before something is done about it?

    --
    Proverbs 21:19
  47. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by theapodan · · Score: 1
    Chances are if California ever did actually part with the NA continent, that it wouldn't sink anyway. Continental crust is relatively light weight compared to either oceanic crust or lithospheric materials, and thus "floats" on top.

    I wouldn't be worrying about this in any timespan that will have man extant. And usually a rift will develop an extra crack that will then fail, like Northeast Africa and the Red sea.

    Earthquakes will become more severe though, with more "big ones." No revelation there.

    It will probably happen sooner that a piece of Oahu or other hawaiin island will slough off into the sea, if you're a fan of huge disasters.

  48. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by Mark+of+THE+CITY · · Score: 1

    It will probably happen sooner that a piece of Oahu or other hawaiin island will slough off into the sea, if you're a fan of huge disasters.

    Mid-oceanic volcanoes sink under their own weight after their eruptive period ends. A ringed coral reef forms in the shallow water, and it is called an atoll.

    --
    The clearance system sounds logical. It is not. It is completely arbitrary. -- John Bolton
  49. Arizona Bay by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Tool - Aenima

    Some say the end is near. Some say we'll see armageddon soon. I certainly hope we will. I sure could use a vacation from this Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of Freaks Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA The only way to fix it is to flush it all away. Any fucking time. Any fucking day. Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay. Fret for your figure and Fret for your latte and Fret for your hairpiece and Fret for your lawsuit and Fret for your prozac and Fret for your pilot and Fret for your contract and Fret for your car. It's a Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of Freaks Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA The only way to fix it is to flush it all away. Any fucking time. Any fucking day. Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay. Some say a comet will fall from the sky. Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves. Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still. Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits. Some say the end is near. Some say we'll see armageddon soon. I certainly hope we will cuz I sure could use a vacation from this Silly shit, stupid shit... One great big festering neon distraction, I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied. Learn to swim. Mom's gonna fix it all soon. Mom's comin' round to put it back the way it ought to be. Learn to swim. Fuck L Ron Hubbard and Fuck all his clones. Fuck all those gun-toting Hip gangster wannabes. Learn to swim. Fuck retro anything. Fuck your tattoos. Fuck all you junkies and Fuck your short memory. Learn to swim. Fuck smiley glad-hands With hidden agendas. Fuck these dysfunctional, Insecure actresses. Learn to swim. Cuz I'm praying for rain And I'm praying for tidal waves I wanna see the ground give way. I wanna watch it all go down. Mom please flush it all away. I wanna watch it go right in and down. I wanna watch it go right in. Watch you flush it all away. Time to bring it down again. Don't just call me pessimist. Try and read between the lines. I can't imagine why you wouldn't Welcome any change, my friend. I wanna see it all come down. suck it down. flush it down.

  50. tides do *not* cause or affect earthquakes by Shooter6947 · · Score: 1

    > the Lunar Land tides maxed on June 3 and they do it again on July 1

    Note that there is NO empirical correlation between either the intensity of lunar tides and earthquakes nor the phase of the lunar tide and earthquakes. Exhaustive scans through 50 years of data show total non-correlation.

    It is possible that we may someday discover something that will allow that affects or causes earthquakes, and that we might therefore be able to predict them. However, the answer is not lunar tides, despite the number of uninformed persons who seem to think differently.

  51. Calm down chicken little by stefanlasiewski · · Score: 1

    including a 5.2 and 3.6 this morning

    Whoa, calm down. There's nothing unusual here.

    Magnitude 5 earthquakes happen about once or twice every year in Southern California. There were several smaller quake a few hours after the 5.3, but those are aftershocks and happen after every big quake.

    Also, a 3.6 is not unusual at all.
    Statewide every week, there are about 5-10 earthquakes that are magnitude 3-4. They happen all the time, and aren't really an indicator of anything.

    So calm down, take a deep breath and welcome to the earthquake state.

    --
    "Can of worms? The can is open... the worms are everywhere."