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Mushroom Cloud Reported Over North Korea

cbrocious writes "Yahoo! News is reporting a mushroom cloud over North Korea that occured on Thursday in Yanggang province near the border with China. 'The explosion in Kim Hyong Jik county blasted a crater big enough to be noticed by a satellite, the source said.'"

66 of 2,001 comments (clear)

  1. Misleading by b0lt · · Score: 5, Informative

    This probably isn't a nuclear detonation, since they would be instantly detected, due to the huge flash created. Back in the 80s, we had satellite technology to detect nuclear explosions. Don't you think we have it now?

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    1. Re:Misleading by xmas2003 · · Score: 2, Informative

      The double flash of a nuke is a very unique signature and yes, there are space assets looking for exactly this - read more about the South Africa test in 1979 - unknown if these same satellite can pick up the Slashdotting of my 22,000 Christmas Lights ... ;-)

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    2. Re:Misleading by Phanatic1a · · Score: 3, Informative

      The signal spectra. In other words, the same thing that makes the signature of an explosion different than the signature of an earthquake. Hell, the Fast Fourier Transform was originally used for the very purpose of distinguishing between earthquakes and nuclear tests.

  2. Duck and Cover by VeneficusAcerbus · · Score: 2, Informative

    You mean this movie?

    Remember what Bert the Turtle does!

  3. NYT: US Intelligence showed North Korea testing by dahorowitz · · Score: 2, Informative

    According to this New York Times article to be published tomorrow, Bush had received intel in the past few days that North Korea was preparing to test a nuclear device.

  4. More stories... by antdude · · Score: 2, Informative
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  5. NYT: Atomic Activity in North Korea Raises Concern by scupper · · Score: 4, Informative

    New York Times
    Atomic Activity in North Korea Raises Concerns
    By DAVID E. SANGER and WILLIAM J. BROAD
    September 12, 2004
    http://tinyurl.com/5kb3d

    WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 - President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon, according to senior officials with access to the intelligence.

    While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.

    Some analysts in agencies that were the most cautious about the Iraq findings have cautioned that they do not believe the activity detected in North Korea in the past three weeks is necessarily the harbinger of a test. A senior scientist who assesses nuclear intelligence says the new evidence "is not conclusive," but is potentially worrisome.

    If successful, a test would end a debate that stretches back more than a decade over whether North Korea has a rudimentary arsenal, as it has boasted in recent years. Some analysts also fear that a test could change the balance of power in Asia, perhaps leading to a new nuclear arms race there.

    In interviews on Friday and Saturday, senior officials were reluctant to provide many details of the new activities they have detected, but some of the information appears to have come from satellite intelligence.

    One official with access to the intelligence called it "a series of indicators of increased activity that we believe would be associated with a test," saying that the "likelihood" of a North Korean test had risen significantly in just the past four weeks. It was that changed assessment that led to the decision to give an update to President Bush, the officials said.

    The activities included the movement of materials around several suspected test sites, including one near a location where intelligence agencies reported last year that conventional explosives were being tested that could compress a plutonium core and set off a nuclear blast. But officials have not seen the classic indicators of preparations at a test site, in which cables are laid to measure an explosion in a deep test pit.

    "I'm not sure you would see that in a country that has tunnels everywhere," said one senior official who has reviewed the data. Officials said if North Korea proceeded with a test, it would probably be with a plutonium bomb, perhaps one fabricated from the 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods that the North has boasted in the past few months have been reprocessed into bomb fuel.

    A senior intelligence official noted Saturday that even if "they are doing something, it doesn't mean they will" conduct a test, noting that preparations that the North knew could be detected by the United States might be a scare tactic or negotiating tactic by the North Korean government.

    Several officials speculated that the test, if it occurred, could be intended to influence the presidential election, though a senior military official said while "an election surprise" could be the motive, "I'm not sure what that would buy them."

    While the intelligence community's experience in Iraq colors how it assesses threats in places like North Korea, the comparisons are inexact. Inspectors have seen and measured the raw material that the North could turn into bomb fuel; the only question is whether they have done so in the 20 months since arms inspectors were ousted. While Iraq denied it has weapons, the North boasts about them - perhaps too loudly, suggesting they may have less than they say.

    On the other hand, the divisions within the administration over how to deal with North Korea mirrors some of the old debate about Iraq. Hard-l

  6. If it was a nuke by jmichaelg · · Score: 2, Informative
    If it was a nuke, wouldn't Japan have noticed by now? When Chernobyl blew, Sweden was the first place to say something when their geiger counters went off. It took the Russians awhile to admit they had a problem.

    Similarly, if it was a nuke, Japan's geiger counters have had plenty of time to go off by now.

  7. Re:OK some quick facts here by HorsePunchKid · · Score: 2, Informative

    I'm all for skepticism, especially when it comes to worthless AP/Reuters echolalia, but it's definitely making the rounds. (Remove the word "blast" from that search, and you can sort of see how many are just repeating AP and how many have actually come up with their own story.)

    --
    Steven N. Severinghaus
  8. Ooops - No Seismic Activity Last Hour, Day, Week by rm3friskerFTN · · Score: 2, Informative
    USGS Earthquake Activity indicates nothing happened

    See also this site

    Recall that 9-11 even created a seismic event

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  9. Little Known Fact by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    All GPS satellites have detectors for a nuclear flash.

    http://ares.redsword.com/GPS/old/sum_sat.htm

  10. Re: Well....From the TFA- by timeOday · · Score: 4, Informative
    Searching around, the NY Times recently reported conflicting expert opinion in recent days over signs that the N Koreans were preparing to detonate a nuclear weapon, and what the implications would be.
    One senior intelligence official noted that preparations the North knew could be detected by the United States might be a scare or a negotiating tactic by North Korea, while other officials speculated a test could be intended to influence the U.S. presidential election in November.
    This is going to be an issue in the election starting now. Do we have any choice but to play ball with the N Koreans?
  11. Re:Its a nuke. by Phanatic1a · · Score: 4, Informative

    Besides, "mushroom-shaped" clouds form from all large explosions, not just nuclear ones. Set off a big bomb, and you suddenly generate a large amount of superheated gas in a pocket near the ground. This rises so rapidly that it generates vortices around its perimeter, and the rolling of these vortices draws up a column of smoke and explosion debris, forming the stem. Then when the rising gas reaches a higher altitude where it's just about as dense as the surrounding air, it spreads out, forming the cap.

    A mushroom cloud could be from a nuke. It could also be from the explosion of a liquefied natural gas storage facility, or a MOAB, or cargo train filled with ANFO. It's not a tell-tale of anything other than a big explosion.

  12. Re:Am I the only one.... by pudge · · Score: 2, Informative

    The problem is that we don't have reporters in North Korea. We have reporters all over the world, so when something happens, it takes maybe a couple of hours tops to get a camera on it. Not so in North Korea. It's essentially a blackout. It took days IIRC to get some closeup video of the explosion in North Korea in April, and it was very limited.

  13. Online seismometers by uberdave · · Score: 5, Informative

    Are there any online seismometers that show this blast. A nuclear explosion would show one big spike, but large ordnance would show a series of smaller spikes.

    1. Re:Online seismometers by isolation · · Score: 5, Informative

      Yes.....
      Look at the data marked 3 days ago and compare it to the others. There is a spike.

      http://www.physics.hmc.edu/research/geo/seismo.h tm l#days

      --
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    2. Re:Online seismometers by onco_p53 · · Score: 4, Informative
      Yes.....
      Look at the data marked 3 days ago and compare it to the others. There is a spike.


      A direct link to the image
    3. Re:Online seismometers by dbIII · · Score: 2, Informative
      Hopefully NRO has at least one sat. in geosynch over the area
      That's a little bit difficult - North Korea is a long way north of the equator.

      All this technology and we're stuck with the same laws of physics as everyone else.

    4. Re:Online seismometers by rpjs · · Score: 2, Informative

      Hopefully NRO has at least one sat. in geosynch over the area.

      Uh, geosynchronous orbits are only possible 22,000 miles over the equator. You could have a satelite in geosynch above the equator on North Korea's general longitude, but I doubt even spy satellite optics are going to tell you much from there.

    5. Re:Online seismometers by stuktongue · · Score: 2, Informative

      I have no specific knowledge of NRO or anything else spooky. However, from watching TV shows, etc., it is well known that "spy" satellites operate in low Earth orbit (LEO) or maybe medium Earth orbit (MEO). These orbits are polar, allowing the satellites to be tasked wherever imaging, etc., is desired. Think "Clear and Present Danger".

  14. Re:Well....From the TFA- by cmowire · · Score: 2, Informative

    Ummm.. Sorta...

    First, a thermonuclear bomb will create a double pulse. A regular old nuclear bomb only creates a single pulse of light. The double pulse is because the fission explosion that is required to set off the fusion blast.

    Doesn't matter. The planet is wired with detectors at this point to catch any "anomolous" explosions, through a variety of methods, in order to ensure compliance with the test ban treaty.

    And second, you are using a poor rip of the wikipedia. Remember, just because one *can* fork and republish the content of a GFDL-protected work, doesn't make it a good idea.

  15. CNN: "North Korea cloud 'not nuke blast'" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative
    1. Re:CNN: "North Korea cloud 'not nuke blast'" by Kethinov · · Score: 2, Informative

      CNN's story says the same thing the Yahoo story does. CNN interprets the South Korean report as "it wasn't a nuke" and Yahoo, BBC, etc interepret more objectively. The facts are, we just don't know. And not much else creates a 4km mushroom cloud. Plus the timing is more than convenient for a nuclear test.

      --
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  16. Re:It's a good thing... by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 5, Informative

    To respond to myself

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan -5 027-1.htm

    "The DPRK will seek force ratios of 3-5 to 1 in armor, 6-8 to 1 in artillery, and 4-6 to 1 in infantry forces to mount an attack. In attempting to breach a well-prepared defensive position, the DPRK may be expected to seek even larger ratios. This undoubtedly would be the case in attempting to break through DMZ defenses.

    Combined-arms operations constitute the foundation of tactical battle in DPRK doctrine. Utilization of the forward conventional corps, reinforced by the mechanized and armor corps, to fight from the DMZ to Pusan is called the Strike Force concept. This concept embodies how the DPRK is expected to fight, especially south of Seoul or in defense of the DPRK."

    "Without moving any of its more than 12,000 artillery pieces, "Pyongyang could sustain up to 500,000 rounds per hour against Combined Forces Command defenses and Seoul for several hours" Gen. Thomas A. Schwartz said in testimony in March 2001 before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Schwartz heads the United Nations and ROK-US Combined Forces Commands and US Forces Korea.

    Towards the end of the Korean War fighting in 1953, the Chinese were able to fire approximately 100,000 rounds per day against US forces, and the number of rounds per day was increasing. A 100,000 round day would be a light day in a new war.

    In 1993 and 1994, when the North Korean nuclear question emerged as an international issue, the North deployed large numbers of improved 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers to forward positions close to the DMZ. This was apparently meant to threaten South Korea's security while calling for nuclear negotiations with the US."

    "A major air campaign against northern forces would be required before the counteroffensive could begin. A US Marine Expeditionary Force (in division strength) and the 82nd Air Assault Division, along with ROK divisions, would launch an overland offensive north toward Wonsan from the east coast. Soon thereafter, a combined US-ROK force would likely stage an amphibious landing near Wonsan, and advance to Pyongyang. Subsequently, a combined US-ROK force would execute a major counteroffensive from north of Seoul aimed at seizing Pyongyang. This would be achieved either by linking up with the force at Wonsan, or meeting it at Pyongyang."

  17. Re:Well....From the TFA- by Phleg · · Score: 3, Informative

    Clinton and the democrats safely contained these crazy dictators.

    I'll concede this point if by "contained" you mean, "implemented cosmetic measures which allowed these crazy dictators to build up the weapons technology and arsenal's their unveiling now."

    Bush may not be helping much, but claiming that Clinton in some way "contained" the situation is laughable.

    --
    No comment.
  18. Re:Well....From the TFA- by bsharitt · · Score: 4, Informative

    China has a lot of troops at the North Korean border. They can be used to protect them, but are mostly there to overrun them if they get too stupid

  19. Re:Well....From the TFA- by gad_zuki! · · Score: 5, Informative

    >"implemented cosmetic measures which allowed these crazy dictators to build up the weapons technology and arsenal's their unveiling now."

    NK broke the reactor seals under Bush.

    NK lauched long range missiles under Bush.

    Rumors of NK's nuclear program growing in the past three years were under Bush of course.

    Saddam disarmed under Bush I and Clinton. Saddam's own son-in-law told Newsweek they had no WMD anymore and the UN agreed that the "threat" Bush played up was a seriously distorting the facts. After the invasion, guess who was right?

    Yeah, there is proliferation going on for two main reasons:

    The Bush admin is focused on the middle east region and only cares about WMD as pro-war propaganda.

    Other nations realized the lessons of the Iraq war weren't "with us or against us" it was "countries who really have WMD survive and don't get invaded." Works for Israel, it will work for everyone else.

  20. Other possibilities by r_j_prahad · · Score: 4, Informative

    Paektu-san (Mount Paektu or White Head Mountain), is an extinct volcano and Korea's highest mountain (2,744 meters). It's located on North Korea's northern land border. It may have sprung violently back to life like North America's own Mount St. Helens.

    Also, forest fires occur there with some regularity (more than 130 at once this summer), and can produce large white mushroom shaped clouds under the right atmospheric conditions.

    Let's not jump to conclusions. Oh wait, this is Slashdot....

  21. Re:Not likely by einhverfr · · Score: 3, Informative

    Possession of the nukes all but guarantees immunity from invasion.

    The large number of missiles and artillery aimed at Seoul is their current deterrant for invasion. Nukes would add to that substantially.

    For example, if they could hit Seoul or Tokyo with their nukes, and still maintain teh firepower they have trained on Seoul, then they are safe, for the moment. However, if they think we are attacking them and hit Tokyo, then we have a doomsday scenarop.

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  22. Re:Ooops - No Seismic Activity Last Hour, Day, Wee by goneutt · · Score: 2, Informative

    The USGS FAQ on nuclear-seismic activity says that a small earth quake has the energy of abour 2000kilotons. If the NK are playing with fission they might reach 40-50 kilotons. The size of the explosion might fall of the bottom of that chart.

    The fact that there are no sensors in north korea might be a factor. Also, india and pakistan were bragging about their nukes, NK might not be so open. And if the USGS has noticed something THEY might be quiet about it. They like rocks, not politics.

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  23. No, the time is wrong by El+Puerco+Loco · · Score: 5, Informative

    The spike is at 16:10 UTC which would be 2:10 AM in Korea. The article says the explosion happened at 11:00 AM.

    1. Re:No, the time is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Fine Check out this Sizeooetwhatever in Japan http://www.fnet.bosai.go.jp/freesia/waveform/prev. html Set for "Selected Window" IZH 1day plot Date: 2004/09/10 (UT) Something bighappened at 2 AM, Same as the HMC plot, but this one is a hell of alot bigger. AKA so it was closer to this one than the HMC one. North Korea? Perhaps.

    2. Re:No, the time is wrong by Frogbert · · Score: 4, Informative

      I have a friend over there in Japan, it was an earthquake.

  24. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 5, Informative

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  25. Re:Well....From the TFA- by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 3, Informative
    First, a thermonuclear bomb will create a double pulse. A regular old nuclear bomb only creates a single pulse of light. The double pulse is because the fission explosion that is required to set off the fusion blast.

    The way I remember it, all nuclear explosions create a double pulse. The interval between the pulses depends on the size of the explosion. Fission bombs are measured in milliseconds and may not be perceptible to observers; the largest thermonuclear bombs have a delay between pulses of about a second. In an H-bomb, the time between the fission trigger and the fusion reaction is measured in microseconds, so that's not an issue.

    The effect is due to the physics of the expanding fireball. The initial reaction directly emits light, which is seen as the first pulse. Right after this, the expanding ball of opaque plasma surrounds the bomb debris, obscuring further light. The plasma itself is hot and bright, however, and as its surface area grows the total emitted light increases again. This is seen as the second pulse.

  26. Check other data by Rufus211 · · Score: 2, Informative

    check out this post in an earlier thread. This picture from Harvey Mudd (in LA, CA) shows that *something* happened last Thursday.

  27. Re:Troop numbers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Iraq had no indigenous anti-Saddam rebels,

    Ah duh, ever heard of the Kurds?

    Not to mention there was an al-Qaeda group setting up bases in the north that also opposed Saddam.

    Also all of al-Sadrs boys opposed Saddam too.

  28. Re: Well....From the TFA- by saden1 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Germany and Japan have constitutional laws preventing them from having a military. They both have peace keeping forces but no sizable armies to wage war or even protect themselves. If anyone, however, has the capabilities to raise a well equipped military they are it. Toyota and BMW can undoubtedly produce military caliber vehicles in no time. People don't know this but Japan once flirted with building infrastructure to manufacture and mass produce aircraft for the aviation industry but was deterred from doing so by the United States.

    --

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  29. Re:Troop numbers... by The+One+and+Only · · Score: 2, Informative

    Er, make that, "I don't like to see people use bad reasoning to oppose the Iraq war."

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  30. Re:Am I the only one.... by Bluetrust25 · · Score: 3, Informative

    There's nothing that makes a two mile wide mushroom cloud other than a nuclear explosion.

    Actually, any large fire could create a mushroom cloud that big.

    Last summer, we had a brushfire here in Los Angeles and the mushroom cloud it created was five miles wide. I'd love to post a link to the pictures I took, especially the ones where the cloud reached overhead and turned the ambient light orange, but sadly, it wasn't digital film.

    Here's some photos from the news coverage.

  31. Re:Fallout? by Trigulus · · Score: 2, Informative
    Its not magic fallout.. sheesh.. its over 3000 miles to Alaska, over 4000 miles to Hawaii and over 5000 miles to the west coast. Fallout is not quite this mobile. example from http://www.cddc.vt.edu/host/atomic/nukeffct/enw77b 1.htm
    From the 15-megaton thermonuclear device tested at Bikini Atoll on March 1, 1954--the BRAVO shot of Operation CASTLE--the fallout caused substantial contamination over an area of more than 7,000 square miles. The contaminated region was roughly cigar-shaped and extended more than 20 statute miles upwind and over 350 miles downwind. The width in the crosswind direction was variable, the maximum being over 60 miles ( 9.104).
    --
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  32. Re:The seismometer is in California by ColaMan · · Score: 4, Informative

    No.

    Vibrations through the earth travel at many kilometers per second, depending on density.

    There'd be a delay (thats how you can triangulate earthquakes and such) but not in the order of 9 hours.

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  33. The time is right. by scum-e-bag · · Score: 3, Informative
    The spike is at 16:10 UTC which would be 2:10 AM in Korea. The article says the explosion happened at 11:00 AM.
    Seismic waves take time to travel through the earths crust, just like a tidal wave on the ocean. It is possible that the wave took 3 hours to travel to the measrurement center at physics.hmc.edu

    Those files have been slashdotted... anyone get originals?
    --
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  34. Re: Well....From the TFA- by GrayArea · · Score: 2, Informative

    Japan spends nearly $50 billion a year on its military (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rank order/2067rank.html). Mitsubishi actually manufactures a custom version of F-15 for the Japanese (defense) air force (http://www.mhi.co.jp/aero/english/productf/b02.ht m). Get your facts straight.

    --
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  35. Misleading statements by AlphaPB · · Score: 2, Informative
    The Republicans are trying to pin the blame on the Democrats, but according to an Utne Reader article this month it is the Bush adminstration that is quietly pushing for this.
    HR163/S89 was a well-known attempt by Democratic Congressman Rangel to protest the war in Iraq (and also to elicit a negative reaction towards the current Administration from the American public). He very well knew that there would be no way for it to pass the House and the Senate, but sponsored it as a political statement.

    It appears that the Selective Service system is gearing up for a new national draft, probably to be next spring. This draft is for both men and women from 18-25 but people with computer or medical training will probably be required to register them (and any new skills they acquire in these areas) until they turn 35.
    Registration of training and skills, as far as I know, is something that occurs only once the draft has been implemented. What's technically required from the age of 18 to 35 is that the registrant inform the SSS of their current address, even though at the moment this is unenforced. Seriously, how many citizens remember to register their new address with the SSS when they move? The SSS had problems with tracking down registrants during the Vietnam-era draft.

    Except for the issue of women in the draft (which Rep. Rangel included in the proposed bill to make it even more controversial), how has this changed from previous years? Are they really preparing for a "new national draft", or are you just saying so because you read the SSS's Annual Performance Plan? What exactly is it in the Performance Plan (and not Rangel's bill) that supports your claim?

    The chances are the new draft ... there will not be deferments for college
    Another misleading statement. There haven't been college deferments since 1971. The only deferment possible is until the end of the college semester.
    There is also quite a bit on the resumption of the draft in Bush's "National Security Strategy" report dated Sept 20, 2002
    Here's a link to the report in question. There was absolutely no mention of a resumption of the draft in the report. Where exactly, could you point out, should I read between the lines?

  36. Re: Well....From the TFA- by daiakuma · · Score: 2, Informative

    Yes, North Korea has attacked someone. Once, more than fifty years ago, it attacked what it considered to be a renegade government (which had just declared itself independent from the North) installed by an occupying power. The occupying power responded by bombing North Korea into the stone ages, and by committing various other atrocities. The occupying power was the USA. What the US did in Korea makes what it did in Japan look like a tea party. The war may be called "the forgotten war" (because the US of course finds it convenient to forget an extremely shameful episode), but North Koreans have not forgotten what the US did in their country. Since 1953, North and South have been in stalemate. Neither wants to launch an attack on the other, but neither trusts the other. In particular, the North still thinks of the South as a puppet of the US and, quite rightly, does not trust the US one inch. It is good that the North has nukes, since it means the stalemate will continue. Which means peace.

    --

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  37. NK != Iraq by rlp · · Score: 4, Informative

    A little history - In 1994 Clinton sent Carter to negotiate a treaty with North Korea. The North Koreans agreed not to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for hundreds of millions of dollars of aid in the form of food and oil, and assistance in developing a "peaceful" nuclear program. The North Koreans then used their "peaceful" nuclear program with assistance from Abdul Qadeer Khan from Pakistan to develop their own nukes thus secretly breaking their agreement. North Korea also has an active missile programs and has conducted "test firings" of multi-stage missiles - shooting them over Japan. Japan is not very happy about this.

    The U.S. with U.N. backing (the Soviet Union's UN ambassador had walked out - thus avoiding a veto) fought a war with the North Koreans in the 1950's. The war ended with an armistice in 1953 - not a peace treaty. North Korea has a 1.1 million man army out of a population of 22 million. They spend about 23% of their GDP on the military. The South Korean capital - Seoul is within easy artillery range of the North Korean border, and the North Koreans are believed to have a lot of hidden artillery in bunkers on the border. In the event of war, a lot of civilians in South Korea would die quickly. Finally, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il is a wacko. While his people starve, he imports large quantities of large items for himself (he favors Hennessy cognac). He's had Japanese citizens kidnapped to teach the Japanese language to North Koreans spies . He's a movie nut (owns 20,000 films) and kidnapped a South Korean movie director to make films about himself.

    China is North Korea's largest trade partner and patron. However, with China's economic boom - China now trades far more with South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. Nevertheless, China is still wary of Japan - remembering the horrors inflicted on China by the Japaneses during WWII. Since the war, Japan has become an economic rather than military power, and it's pacifistic constitution (written by the US) ensures that it will not again become a threat to it's neighbors.

    A nuclear North Korea threatens the balance in the region. It is not in the interest of China for South Korea to develop it's own nukes. It is not in the interest of anyone for the Japanese to develop nukes to counter the threat of nuclear armed missiles from North Korea. China's real nightmare - is if the region starts a nuclear arms race and Taiwan goes nuclear.

    So, the choices are as follows:

    1) Cut a deal similar to the 1994 Carter deal that the North Koreans violated (fool me once ...)
    2) Attack North Korea and risk immediate massive civilian casualties in South Korea.
    3) Drag China into the negotiations with North Korea and convince them to "curb your dog".
    4) Close our eyes, put our fingers in our ears and shout "La La La La La ...".

    Personally, I think the only viable answer is number three - and that's what we're doing.

    --
    [Insert pithy quote here]
  38. REUTERS - N.Korea blast unlikely to be nuclear by ferrellcat · · Score: 2, Informative
  39. Re:Forest fire? Don't think so. - WRONG by lombre · · Score: 5, Informative
    This CNN story claims that a US official suggests that the mushroom cloud might be caused by a forest fire. A little bit of physics knowledge [layman/common-sense] makes this suggestion laughable

    pictures speak a 1000 words

    ex 1

    ex 2

    you can find 100's of recountings of forest fires that have mushroom clouds

  40. Re:The Time Frame by nordicfrost · · Score: 2, Informative
    You sir, are a buffoon.


    Because the rest of us know that the NK is a media blackout zone on the planet. To enlighten you, let me give you the rules for a journalist to enter NK:

    1. No cellphones.
    2. No cameras above 4 megapixels
    3. No tele lenses for your camera.
    4. NO CELLPHONES! That goes twice for sat phones
    5. No recording devices.

    Now, this is provided that you actually get in to the country. Because you don't want to enter it without a vise, since they WILL treat you as a spy and you don't want that. I applied for a visa and was denied, since I work as a journalist.

    Trust me, if I had the opportunity to uncover this, reporting from the country, my (tabloid) editor would have it on the front page. Because, if this is nuclear (which I guess it isn't) it would be the foreign fucking story of the year.

  41. FALSE ALARM - japanese seismograph at 2 AM by Shmibbon · · Score: 4, Informative

    The 2 AM seismic event is strongest at KIS. That's located in the middle of the south shore of Japan (Chugoku-Shikoku area). It also shows up strong on the north/south motion graph (first graph is up/down).

    Check the previous days, there's plenty of spikes. It's just a damn earthquake in Japan.

  42. Re:Forest fire? Don't think so. by HeghmoH · · Score: 2, Informative

    Going to a few airshows apparently trumps your layman/common-sense physics knowledge. Tiny airshow-level pyrotechnics can create mushroom clouds. Mushroom-osity is not unique to nuclear blasts, only the size is.

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    Mod down posts with a "Free Mac Mini/iPod" sig, they're spam!
  43. L.A.Times article = He's insane by spineboy · · Score: 4, Informative
    The L.A. Times had an interestng article about a Japanese chef who worked for him for a while and then escaped. It included such info as Kim Jong Il II (sp?) has EVERY GRAIN of rice hand selected by a staff of women - imperfect ones are discarded. Food is cooked over fires made from a certain type of tree on a remote mountain that reportedly has special powers. Water too is from a "special" location. Made everyone in his hunting party take the same drugs as he was taking, after a spill from a horse. Always "wins" every competition that he is in.

    He's either whacked or really, really different - I vote for the former.

    --
    ..........FULL STOP.
  44. Re:Ooops - No Seismic Activity Last Hour, Day, Wee by infolib · · Score: 3, Informative
    Well, that's just great, but North Korea isn't in Southeast Asia.

    Really? Where'd they move to?

    East Asia. Let's see what Wikipedia says:

    Southeast Asia is a subregion of Asia. It includes all of the following territories:
    Brunei
    Cambodia
    East Timor
    Indonesia
    Laos
    Malaysia
    Myanmar (Burma)
    The Philippines
    Singapore
    Thailand
    Vietnam

    When you look at a map it is obvious that Korea is really pretty far to the north, which makes it reasonable that it's included with Japan, Taiwan and some Chinese provinces in East Asia.

    --
    Any sufficiently advanced libertarian utopia is indistinguishable from government.
  45. Seismic Reading by dorpus · · Score: 2, Informative

    September 9th at exactly 9AM, there is a funny blip. http://www.hinet.bosai.go.jp/strace/24hour_wavevie w.php?orgid=01&netid=01&stcd=N.GENH&tm=2004090909& winnm=N_GENH

  46. look look by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    i know i'm just an anonymous coward,
    but

    do check out

    http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/hplot_e.php

    for 2004 09 09 16

    Something happened at 16:40 UTC.

    ==================

    For reference, also check out:

    2004 09 05 15

    which was the 7.3 Richter-scale Japan earthquake.

  47. good reuters article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative
    here. They quote several alternate explanations:

    "

    Yonhap carried conflicting reports about the cause of the blast, quoting one source as saying it could have been a forest fire and another as saying it may have been an explosion of at a weapons depot or factory.
    ...
    Other possibilities include a failed missile engine test, a high-explosives test as a precursor to a nuclear blast or an industrial accident, diplomats said.

    "In the northern part of the country, there are a lot of weapons factories and underground missile bases. The rocket-fuel could have exploded in the underground base, or something," speculated Daniel Pinkston, a North Korea expert at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California.
    "

  48. S. Korean government says it wasn't a nuke by sofakingon · · Score: 4, Informative
    From the Chosun Ilbo, the largest newspaper in Seoul.

    I live here, so I pray to God it wasn't a nuke.

    Gov't Confirms 'Non-Nuclear' N. Korean Explosion

    It was reported that there was a massive explosion Thursday around the town of Yongjo-ri, Kim Hyong-jik County, Ryanggang Province. U.S. Department of State, sources familiar with North Korea and the Korean government all confirmed the explosion. A high-ranking government official said Sunday, It is true that a large mushroom cloud about 3.5 to 4 km in diameter was observed by a satellite at around 11:00 a.m. Thursday. It was not a nuclear test, but the explosion seemed to be three times bigger than the one that took place during the Ryongchon Station accident,± and added, Both U.S. and Korean intelligence authorities are investigating what caused the explosion.±

    Chong Wa Dae Spokesman Kim Jong-min said, We noticed the explosion right after it took place and reported it to the president in writing during a National Security Council meeting. But we cannot decide the nature of the accident yet.±

    The accident took place in a mountainous region 1,500 meter above sea level around Yongjo-ri, where it is known that there were many munitions factories nearby. In particular, the exact spot of explosion is only 10km away southwest from the Yongjo-ri base for Rodong 1 and 2 missiles and some 30km away from the Sino-Korean border.

    There is much talk about the cause of the explosion. The government official said, If a nuclear test causes an explosion, we can detect it by reading satellite data. Thus, the recent explosion in North Korea was not caused by a nuclear test.± The intelligence authorities assume that an ammunition depot with over 1,000 tons of dynamite or an ammunition car may have exploded, or there may have been a chain explosion of chemical material or a big fire. Some Chinese sources argue that a massive explosion took pace in a munitions factory. Hong Sun-jik, director at the Hyundai Economic Institute said, Other than the assumption that it may be a simple accident that took place due to old facilities, we cannot exclude the possibility that the explosion may have taken place due to the lack of control of the Kim Jong-il regime, or it may have been connected to a secret feud over the successor of Kim Jong-il following the rumor of death of Kims wife, Ko Young-hee.±

    Also, some strongly argue that it is not a simple accident because it took place on Sept.9, the Norths foundation day, which is considered a very important national holiday. Others argue that with Koreas nuclear experiments in the past at issue in the international community, it could be a false explosion by North Korea to intensify the Koreas nuclear issue. In other words, the North intentionally caused the explosion to deliver a message to the international community.

    The government official said, We will be able to know the exact cause only after North Korea makes an official statement or intelligence authorities announces the results of their analysis.±

    (Choi Byung-mook, bmchoi@chosun.com )

  49. It's not Nuclear by janvo · · Score: 2, Informative

    from cnn... http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/09/12/nkorea .blast/index.html

  50. Or you need to do some more reading. by tgd · · Score: 5, Informative

    The US tested many sub-kiloton devices.

    I suggest as a minimum reading a bool called the Curve of Binding Energy... I'm pretty sure its got a chapter talking about Ted Taylor's efforts to build micro-yield devices.

    Either way, your comment is completely wrong. Its far more complicated to created small yield devices, but not even remotely impossible. Its extremely unlikely that North Korea did that, though. While creating a nuclear detonation is simple given enough raw fissionable material (US and Russia both had no failed tests with primitive technology until we started pushing the envelope for smaller and smaller explosions), creating micro-yield explosions is, and the details is one of the closest kept nuclear secrets in the US.

  51. since the 1950's by evenprime · · Score: 5, Informative
    In practical terms it's impossible to build a nuclear bomb that yields less than about 5 kilotons.

    We've had smaller nukes than that since the late 1950's. Our AIM-26A and AIR-2A air to air missiles typically had 1.5 nuclear warheads. Some of these had the even smaller 0.25 KT warheads.

    More Info:

    http://www.milnet.com/aamtab.htm

    http://www.wpafb.af.mil/museum/arm/arm16.htm

    http://www.hill.af.mil/museum/photos/coldwar/genie .htm

    --

    "Weapons should be hardy rather than decorative" - Miyamoto Musashi
    I think that goes for OS's too
  52. Re:Impossible by Travis+Fisher · · Score: 4, Informative

    You're wrong. Do a bit of web browsing about the threat of nuclear terrorism sometime. Try this paper for a start. What you're missing is that there is another critical factor determining the efficiency -- for what time period the assembly is critical. A group with limited resources trying to build a nuclear bomb for the first time is likely to aim for a device with a minimum of technical sophistication. This means one of two designs, corresponding to the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. One was the "gun design," so named because a slug of uranium is shot into another subcritical mass of uranium. The other is the "implosion design," where a hollow sphere of plutonium is surrounded by shaped charges of convential explosive, which when detonated compress the plutonium into a super-critical density. The problem with these designs is that if you do a shoddy job building the thing, the nuclear chain reaction will take off when the fissionable material is only partway to the final "assembled" state. Then most likely the nuclear explosion blasts the parts back apart before they ever reach the final assembled state, and this flying apart of the material makes things subcritical again before much of the nuclear energy is released. This can lead to arbitrarily small yields. This is particularly likely (or maybe almost inevitable) if a bomb is built with the less-refined "reactor grade" materials as opposed to the more-refined "weapons grade" materials. The less-refined material has a far greater proportion of undesirable isotopes which randomly decay releasing extra neutrons which will start the chain reaction before the optimal stage of assembly.

  53. It's reported as intentional by Kalak · · Score: 2, Informative

    North Korea has invited diplomats to visit the blast site of what is reported tpo be a "deliberate detonation of a mountain" as part of a hydroelectric project.

    The spectacular start of a big project fits with the date of the blast in N. Korea.

    Nothing to see here, please move along...

    --
    I am, and always will be, an idiot. Karma: Coma (mostly effected by .hack)
  54. North Korea Says Blast Part of Construction Projec by dickens · · Score: 2, Informative

    From the VOA:

    North Korean foreign ministry officials have told British and Chinese diplomats that the explosion was the demolition of a mountain to make way for a hydro-electric plant.