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PS3 Delay To Have Little Impact?
According to analyst firm Strategy Analytics, the PS3's delay is unlikely to have much of an effect on the next-gen race, reports GameDailyBiz. From the article: "While 2006 sales will clearly fall short of previous expectations, Strategy Analytics maintains its previous forecast of PS3 sales of 121.8 million units through 2012 ... This compares to expected sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 of 58.8 million units over the same period." Gamasutra reports that, from Steve Ballmer's perspective, the opposite is true. From that article: "In every other generation, the first guy to 10 million consoles was the number one seller in the generation ... Did we just get an even better opportunity to be the first guy to 10 million? Yeah, of course we did." This all assumes the console launches this year.
If they drop it out of an airplane, it will have a bigger impact.
I don't see anyone who wants a PS3 not waiting a few extra months. I doubt anyone who wants a PS3 will decide to buy a Revolution or 360 just because they're out earlier. I know people are mostly impatient, but if that's what you really want, you'll wait.
the ps installed user base is too big to overcome. most ps2 owners will re up and get a ps3. most ps2 owners are satisfied with their gaming experience, and I have no reason to believe that this will change between now and when the ps3 is released.
the ps3 will do well. how well the 360 does isn't dependent on what Sony does, more on what microsoft does. they have been marketing the 360 poorly in my opinion, thus limiting the reach of the console.
un burrito me trampeó.
Whether or not the PS3 ships for the X-mas season is irrelevant.
Regardless of when the console launches, Sony will completely sell out of units to hardcore fans.
Hardware will not be available to families or casual gamers until at least 4-6 months after launch.
Those analyst forecasts are way off.
By my calculations, it's 121.6 (they must have forgotten to take into account leap year, tax increases, etc).
How can somebody make predictions on the sale of a new piece of technology, projecting 6 years into the future, and to be so arrogant that they use the tenth's decimal place to make their forecast? Whatever...
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Indeed, but the original PlayStation came out at a time when people had been VERY satisfied with their previous Nintendo system, the SNES. In fact, the first PlayStation was originally going to be a collaboration between Nintendo and Sony as a CD-ROM drive for the SNES. Nintendo pulled out, Sony continued developing it, and the cancellation of that contract turned out to be the worst decision that Nintendo ever made.
My point is, at some point in time, the "popular" brand of systems always falls. Atari, Nintendo (and Sega?), and Sony's time will eventually come... It might not happen with the PS3, but the important thing to remember is that can happen, and eventually will. All empires are eventually toppled.
How is that relevant? I still refuse to believe that they can project sales to four fucking significant figures with any degree of scientific accuracy whatsoever.
I don't think Ballmer is exactly right, nor whoever wrote the article either. If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360. It's common sense. If you are putzing along on a PS2 and get sick of waiting for the PS3, you'll get the itch and pick one up. Sad but true.
I think many people, including myself, will wait with a (much needed) pc upgrade until MS Vista (DirectX 10) capable hardware is around. Ok, I have run Kororaa with XGL (but normally run Gentoo), and I like it A LOT. However, I have kids... And unless there are compelling Linux gaming alternatives the upgrade may well be Vista... Also, I may need to by a new tv... An HDTV. Oooo, another 1,000$ So, if the PS3 will work as a Linux-based pc, too, then it is clear. It will be PS3. If it will be cheap, like 500$, then maybe both a new pc and a PS3. Oh, I almost forgot, I need a new car, too...
How many units of the original Xbox were sold? The 360 is up to 2 mil so far wasn't it? And so far I haven't seen better reason to get a 360 than the original Xbox. So I don't see them selling that many units this time around unless they do a dramatic change in the game lineup.
I guess this is as good an article to make this comment. As someone who has worked in retail for 6 years (Gamestop and now Gamecrazy) I am eternally amused that no analyst (that I've read, at least) has ever once mentioned that the installed PS2 user base is grossly overstated. Yes, the PS2 has sold well over 100 million units, but I would be very conservative in estimating that at least 30 million of those units(AT LEAST) are replacements for broken PS2's. It's really quite amazing to me that I've sold quite a few customers their 4th PS2 since 2001. The thing is, they're so invested in games, that they simply must replace their PS2 when it breaks, and they break... gosh, seems yearly.
Besides the replacements, there are tons of users that have second and third machines. Much like the GBA buyers, they just had to get the special edition units, or the slimmer unit, or... whatever, you get it.
I'd say that the installed user base for PS2s, based on my own experience, is overstated by 40-50%. The PS2 won the last console war, but not by nearly as much as the sales figures show.
(and, yes, the Xbox had quite a few return customers due to broken hardware, but not nearly as many. The Gamecube appears to be indestructible)
I understand a decimal place, when applied to millions of units, equals hundreds of thousands. That doesn't diminish the principle that the analyst numbers are garbage. You're applying a decimal to a 3 digit number, which means you're forecasting a number with more accuracy than a percentage point. It's no more accurate than a fart in the wind.
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They want their FF13, their gran turismo 5, metal gear solid 4: The Baby Snake, and whatever the hell exclusive sequels the ps3 will grab.
Sadly, since i love all of those games i'm one of them. Unless the 360 gains a ton of games of genres i like along with a universal amount of glowing reviews for a few of these games I won't touch the thing. I dont' even give a flying craphole about upgraded graphics. I don't even have hdtv so i won't be able to see the details in baby snake's feces. Although my projected purchase period for the ps3 is at the very earliest 2years (i hate launch prices and i see ps2 rpgs keeping me occupied for quite some time).
Right now the only games i'm interested in(for the orig xbox and 360) have better or equal counterparts on the pc. THe same cannot be said for the playstation games.
Hmmm... Pie...
Microsoft astroturfers strike again. Maybe one of you weasels can explain why the parent was modded -1?
Boy oh boy are you thick.
How can you predict that 121.8 million consoles will be sold if the price is not known.
I think the delay will have some impact, just not alot. I think the key factor for Sony will be price and the quality of the launch titles. I do beleive Microsoft and Nintendo are both primed to take a pretty good chunk of the market. I still beleive the launch price of the PS3 may seal its fate.
I just finished talking to a "normal" gamer buddy of mine today. You know, he likes to game, and his kids like to game. He was telling me about how much he and his kids love Call of Duty 2, and how smooth and amazing it looks on a Radeon 9200. As I sat there fighting to keep my mouth closed, he went on to mention he was buying a gaming PC "just for him," with a fancy new GeForce 6600 (no, not the 6600 GT).
I almost laughed at him, but then I realized: he doesn't care about fancy TRMSAA or Angle-dependent Anistropy, he doesn't really notice fancy real-time lights or shadow-maps. The only thing that matters to him and his kids is the game looks decent (ie, at least 640x480 resolution, reasonable resolution textures, and billinear filtering).
And why not? A whole half of the gaming population bought into the PlayStation all because it could do fancy new 3D rendering, even though the unfiltered textures and 100 polygons per scene looked like crap. Most of them traded up to the Playstation 2 because it could do much better polygonal detail and allowed higher video and texture resolutions, plus DVD.
So, here's the problem: most people think that the PS2 looks great, and it is in fact almost as good as you can get on a standard TV. So, why should people upgrade when the current console does everything they think they need?
If you don't have an HDTV, the PS3 doesn't really offer anything over the PS2 except Bluray, and again, the DEMAND for Bluray depends on you having an HDTV. All the selling points for the PS3 come back to this HDTV thing.
And normal people don't care about HD. Take my sister and her husband: they have Sony everything, a nice Sony DLP widescreen, plus a matching Sony 5.1 receiver and speaker set. It's great, except most of the things they watch are in SD, and the speakers are set up in two clumps on either side of the room. The closest they get to watching HD is through their DVD player, but I know better than to argue with them.
Look at the XBox 360. IT LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN PREVIOUS GENERATION CONSOLES, there is no doubt of that. The problem is, it doesn't look GOOD ENOUGH to warrant the upgrade, so people stick with their current-generation consoles and games. You can be sure that the PS3 will encounter the same problem.
I mean, people convince themselves all the time that Sony equipment is somehow "better" than other brands, but what happens when it's Sony versus Sony? I expect all those eagar PS2 buyers won't be so eagar to go PS3. The only console to offer anything really DIFFERENT is the Revolution, but that gives it as much risk of sinking as swimming. One thing I am sure of: console sales this generation, overall, will be lower than last generation.
Man is the animal that laughs.
And occasionally whores for Karma.