Slashdot Mirror
Merrill Lynch Predicts $200 Wii
Burlap writes "In a story at Forbes, Merrill Lynch predicts that Nintendo will severely undercut the competition with a $200 price point on the Wii." From the article: "An executive from SEGA, one of Nintendo's largest publishers, told Forbes.com on Tuesday that he expects the Wii to sell for less than $200. Post said the Nintendo machine, which features a wireless controller that responds to players' body movements, 'will appeal to a broad demographic of both hard-core and casual gamers.'"
If i had a nickel for every time an analyst made a prediction that turned out to be incorrect, I'd have the $200 necessary to buy the Wii!
Every dollar they price this below $250 increases the likelihood of me buying it by roughly 1%. =)
That's a Wii price. A small hit to the pot-o-gold.
Microsoft and Sony have given Nintendo some wiggle room on price here, so I think $199 will be the minimum price for the console through the end of the launch year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go for as much as $299 at launch, or even $350 if it comes with a strong bundle.
Arguing about vi versus Emacs is like arguing whether it's better to make fire by rubbing sticks or banging rocks.
http://games.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=185919&c id=15344390
I already extrapolated exactly this prediction from the data given in a previous article. The evidence I drew this conclusion from was the posted statistics in TFA of the previous note (the article is available here if you don't want to follow too many links).
How to use coral cache: http://slashdot.org.nyud.net:8090/~oscartheduck
Is there a constructive reason for such prediction? Will Merrill Lynch get a prize or something if the prediction is correct?
We already have Google popping up in every 3rd article, now we have Wii.
Please stop entering code 2,2,7,6,6,4
Merrill Lynch now owes you a dollar!
Anyone remember Merril Lynch's $900 ps3?
linky
Apparently, the justification for this is coming from Sega VP, Scott Steinberg. He believes that the Wii will launch at under $200 due to its far simpler hardware in comparison to the competition.
Nintendo has always had a profit on all the consoles they've sold.
I don't see why Nintendo couldn't sell at $200 and still make profit. My understanding is that the core hardware isn't that much different from the Gamecube. Sure, they might lose short term profits that they could have had, but it would be worth it if they could pull a Sony on Sony themselves!
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
The NES had a launch price of $200, the SNES had a launch price of $200, the N64 had a launch price of $200, the GameCube had a launch price of $200.
Nintendo has had launch prices of $200 for 20 years now, you have to be pretty fucking impressive to even have the nerve to utter that they could launch a console for an unheard-of-before price of $200
Well, at least that time Merrill Lynch may be spot on.
"The way we can tell it's C# instead of Haskell is because it's nine lines instead of two." -- wadler
I am planning on buying at least two of these. One for the family and another for the local children's hospital. I think this controller will really help in physical therapy dept. with the rehabilitation of children. If they offer games that appeal to older adults it could also be a Xmas gift for the grandparents/nursing home too! The boomer generation is the largest growing market and as of yet has been untapped. I think the people at Nintendo deserve a raise for this revolutionary product (pun intended)!
Console itself will be $200 isnt too far stretched, just still don't expect to get out the door without spending upwards of $200 MORE on games and accessories.
The raw console will be $200 with your standard one controller, but you'll not have everything you want for far more.
This article was written last week. I still believe that Nintendo was all but ready to throw out the $200 figure until Sony announced their price at E3 (Nintendo was quoted as being quite surprised that Sony chose to announce their price so early, and everyone else was shocked at the number). Now Nintendo is going back to discuss the possibility of a $250-$300 price point. After all, their whole model is the appearance of affordability for casual gamers, and $250 is still LESS THAN HALF of a PS3 and considerable cheaper than a 360.
If it turns out to be above $250, I sure hope they include an extra controller and perhaps some sample games to show off functionality (Wii Sports, for example, seems fun but doesn't strike me as a game I would pay $50 for)
Um, we're seeing this misconception a [i]lot[/i] here. The Wii is not running on Gamecube hardware in a fancy white case. They didn't have IBM and ATI both design new custom chips for no goddamn reason, after all. The hardware is a good step up over the Gamecube, it's just that Nintendo is staying out of the dick-measuiring contest that Microsoft and Sony are getting themselves into.
I've upped my standards, so up yours.
Look at what nintendo did with the name wii itself: a new, original (and many would say bad) name for a console.. so they released it well before E3 and let gamers blow off steam about it in advance so it didn't blot out their showing at the event itself with controversy. Hell, I think that's why Sony released its price figures early, so gamers would have time to get used to the idea of having to blow 700 bucks on a console. With good news on the other hand, its to their advantage to release the price info as late in the year as possible, so as to maximize the "wow, wii is friggin cheap!!" glow that will drive gamers into the stores and wiis off the shelf. So my predicition is that the price will be released late in the game, right before when the system is going to be released, and that it will be on the low end of the price ranges we're all quoting here.
One word: inflation. The price of each and every component used in producing the Wii has increased significantly
No it hasn't. Consumer electronics aren't affected by inflation.
From capacitors and resistors to DVD lasers, they're all cheaper today than ever before.
I didn't say that, actually I very specifically said that there "was some improvement, just not as much as the others."
What part of that statement is not true?
It's not just that the Wii is slower than the 360 or PS3, it also doesn't have a lot of the modern features either of those have (it also doesn't have the incredibly convoluted PPU system they have either, but how difficult the hardware is to program for is another argument altogether). The GPU doesn't have pixel or vertex shader hardware, do you know what the last PC GPU that had a fixed function T&L pipeline was? ATI 7xxx series and Nvidia GeForce 2. On a 90nm process, you could make a GPU of that complexity for very cheap and get it to run far faster than the original 7xxx or GF2. I'm sure there are some console tricks include like in the original Flipper, but don't think you are getting the equivalent of a modern mid-range GPU to the 360/PS3 high-end. It is drastically lower class. The CPU is nearly an off the shelf component too. Lastly, supplying only a minimal amount of memory will also lower costs. They don't have to care about high res, because they won't even connect to a high res device. I don't think any of that matters to the success of the platform, I actually think that Nintendo was really smart. They have learned from the Gameboy (and to a much lesser extent, the GameCube). While you can grab headlines with selling jaw-dropping effects, price and games move units. At the end of the day, I would rather be the 3rd place hardware vendor with the 1st place sales sheet and Nintendo feels the same way.
No previous console generation was only twice as fast/capable as the one before it.
Given the large number of games shown at E3 that require the nunchaku I think it's very likely that it will be included with the console.
What capabilities does the Wii command that are unachievable on the GameCube today? I think nintendo is just releasing the obligatory new platform as a method to increase saturation of it's 'wiimote' controller. They should have just bundled the controller with whatever handful of games they plan to have it work with and called it a day. Consider:
Wii is hardly more powerful than gamecube. GC 1.5 indeed. Partial Wii Specs vs. GC Specs>
They are releasing AAA GC titles simultaneously with Wii anyway.
Wii has 4 GC controller ports and will accept GC discs as well as Wii ones.
What we really have here, just like GBA SP and DS Lite, is the GC Wii, with a pack-in wand controller and ethernet port.
As long as Moore's Law significantly outpaces inflation, you should see the cost of most consumer electronics continue to decrease, while their capability increases.
If $200 buys you X transistors this year, and 1.5X transistors in 2008, then as long as inflation doesn't exceed 22% a year, you'll be getting more capability for less money each time.
Or at least that's true as long as the cost of the chips needed for an acceptable game machine make up a significant portion of the cost of the machine. When the chips are (much) less expensive than the rest of the components, the relative cost curve will flatten out.
-Mark
I would love to get a Wii (all my consoles were from Nintendo, with the exception the Atari 2600), but I belive the price will be prohibitive when it gets here (Brazil). The consoles are quite expensive, but the games are WAY expensive. I was looking forward to get a newer Nintendo system (my last one was the N64), but after seeing the price of the games for the Game Boy Micro, DS and GC I gave up. Just to give you an idea:
The cheapest Game Boy Micro I found goes for R$399.00 ~ $181.00 (expensive, but affordable considering you only need one console). GBA games: R$ 69.00 (older games) to R$249.00 (WTF!?) ~ $31.00 to $113.00
I don't know anyone who has any of these consoles, but I know quite a few people who have PS2. The PS2 costs about $295,00 (with mod chip installed), but the games are virtually free due to piracy.
Is the situation similar in other countries? That would explain why Sony sells so many PS2.
"...personality goes a long way."
An executive from SEGA, one of Nintendo's largest publishers...
If you had uttered this phrase to me 8 years ago, I would have told you that you need better jokes.
I must admit I'd be getting a Wii and then I can play Pokemon! *sputter cough* I mean Resident Evil...
On the serious side though, I'm in that group of "buy another console? Over my dead body!" I pinch pennies all the time now and I don't get to buy/play what I want anymore. Part of me actually wants all these consoles to undersell their expectations and then maybe just maybe these consoles will stop being pushed out so frequently.
Oh well, I can always play on my computer.
Oops, how did this get here?
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
I think the real factor that will affect the starting price is the availability of the console. If the manufacturing yield is as high as might be expected, the might be able to have a boat load of these available at launch. Rather than try to ride the early adopter wave at a higher price point, I think Nintendo would be better off making the Wii something everyone wants to buy. A $200 price point with a good catalogue of launch titles could easily cattapult the Wii into the lead for market share, especially if it launches early enough before the holidays. The sooner they grab more marketshare, the sooner 3rd parties get excited about the console and ramp up their development schedule.
An additional item to think about is the back catalogue of games available. I have no idea what kind of pricing scheme they're going to be using, but that's another revenue stream that is entirely dependent on the amount of consoles out there.
IMHO, the only reason I see the Wii launching at $250 or above is if they're going to be in short supply. Since they won't be making the initial revenue in volume, they'll have to compensate by increasing their margins until their production capacity catches up. Either way, Nintendo won't be using the same loss-leader formula as MS and SONY, so they have a little room to adjust their pricing options (which I'm sure is why they haven't even started talking about price yet).
FTFA:
TRANSLATION: "Lower-cot publishing environment" == "lower licensing fees" + "fewer resources to develop each title"
If they're able to cut the price of a game down to $20-$25 bucks (
... they'll do 5 things:
- take a huge bite out of the underground market for chip mods/pirate games
- beat the crap out of the competition
- get rid of game rentals - why rent when for $20 you can own?
- more than make up the $$$ on volume
- developers/publishers also get a much larger market, as the games become impulse buys. At $20, every game becomes a million-unit seller.
After all, with a console at $150, and games at $20-$30 a pop, it's the no-brainer buying decision.At $50 - $70 a game, people think twice, 3, 10 times before they buy ... at $20, they'll buy one a week.
Highly unlikely. The Gamecube was easier to develop for (using your criterion, anyways), and games for that went at the same price as everyone else's.
-Erwos
Plausible conjecture should not be misrepresented as proof positive.
At $50 - $70 a game, people think twice, 3, 10 times before they buy ... at $20, they'll buy one a week.
Many new DS games are $35, so I doubt that Nintendo would sell a console game for less than a portable one.
-G
www.pixelstatic.com
Bingo!
They kicked the PSP arse with the DS by using that tactic.
DS games are typically $20.00 to $40.00 new first day release.
PSP games can go upwards of $70.00
It's a no brainer. I own 2 DS's and 2 of every game I wanted. I have spent less than a friend that is a PSP nut and I have more games than he does.
The Wii will be in many, many more homes and will sell more games than the other two combined. Hell they already have more launch titles than the Xbox 360 has available now and the machine is not due for release for many months.
People want to be able to buy a game without having to research it 5 ways before buying it. If I blow $25.00 on a stinker I am not pissed. Blowing $50-$70 on a stinker get's me pissed enough to never buy another game for a certian console again.
Most games released today suck anyways. The last game I bought was the innovative "guitar hero" for the PS2 and the "DS Brain Age" game.
I play the DS brain age game every day along with my daily dose of animal crossing crack or a race at work with others on Mario Kart DS.
No games on the other platforms are interesting enough for me to play daily. And a lot of people feel the same way recently due to the recent explosion of ho-hum games from most game makers.
Now if they port Command AND conquer to the DS, I'd be extremely unproductive.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
Why are you fretting so much about the Wii?
Its CPU is basically a G5 from what I've read. And from personal experience, a 970 FX can easilly destroys the P3/Celeorn-hybrid found in the XBox and the Custom G3 found in the GC. Your "hardly comment" only goes to show how ignorant you are about these things. The Wii's GPU is at least 4 or 5 generations ahead of its predecessor, so that's going to make a big difference in performance. It's also pretty much guaranteed that the Wii will have a PPU. If this is the case, it will make a substantial difference in performance for 3D games, and free up the CPU to do other tasks. A dedicated PPU would be much faster than the software route the X360 and PS3 have taken.
I found most of what you sated to be more inflammatory than instightful. But it's good that you pointed out the backwards compatibily. I know you were trying to use that to state your case, but it's one of the Wii's strengths and it's just another reason for me to buy one.
The Wiimote isn't an afterthought like Sony's hack-job as an example, so all Wii games that can benefit from it, will support it. This is why the Wii is going to be great and you honestly can't deny you would love this sort of thing on your favorite console. You're only "trying" to spread "misinformation" by stating things like a "handfull of games." Like that's going to change anything, since Nintendo has a huge line up of Wii games, which are wiimote-friendly, which will be ready for launch. A bundled "main" controller won't have problems getting support from developers; Get real!
Anway, most of your points can easilly be applied to the other consoles, since they're basically upgrades. They haven't changed gaming, they've only moved consoles up to the level of mid-ranged PCs when it comes to visual eye-candy. Nintendo's Wii is the only console that has brought something new to the plate and it has all the potentional to evovle gaming beyond the current state of same, which MS and Sony are moving forward with. An upgrade is better graphics and more power, not a whole new way to game, which only the Wii can offer.
<]=)
Assuming that the rumored unit pricing is true...
At least Nintendo remembers why people buy videogame consoles instead of (or in addition to) general purpose computers. People bought all of the most successful game systems because they were a cheap and easy to entertain your kids, NOT because they were higher powered - consoles are all low powered compared to loaded gamer PC's. Of course, for every generation of game systems there is competition about who has the best spec's and, more importantly, the best games, but every time a company forgets that the most important thing is to be cheap and easy, they end up making an absurdly over-spec'd, over-priced, overly complex system that fails in the marketplace because they chased after the high-end niche market instead of the mainstream.
Winning Systems: NES, GameBoy, PlayStation, PlayStation 2 (pushing the high-end of pricing at launch, but came down).
Losing Systems: Intellivision, Atari Lynx, NEC Turbo Graphix, 3DO, DreamCast, Xbox. All tried to sell more functionality for more money than people were willing to pay.
When I look at the next generation systems, the Wii looks like the NES and GameBoy - a cheap and easy way to entertain your kids. And Sony and MS's next boxes look a lot like 3DO - great spec's, but wiped out by more pragmatic competition.
Sony's only hope is that they can somehow convince people to buy PS3's as their HD DVD player, which might get home theater enthusiasts to buy PS3's. The Xbox 360 seems doomed to me, once its real competition arrives.
My prediction is that the Wii will outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360 by massive amounts, because Nintendo is (1) targeting the mainstream market, and (2) focusing on gameplay, innovating in areas like the controllers, and their downloadable game service, that don't price them out of their market. The risk I see to the Wii is that if game publishers don't think it'll do well, they won't sell games for it, hurting it in the general marketplace. But if Nintendo is committed to the Wii's success, I think it'll do decently well just on the strength that you can buy it (if rumors are true). As a parent, I think I'm more likely to buy a Wii for $200 just to play whatever the next cool Mario game is, rather than to spend $4-500 (or more?!) for the competition. Heck, the Wii controller is the only interesting thing I've read about any of these units, and it's on the cheapest one...
Enable 3D printed prosthetics!
After all, with a console at $150, and games at $20-$30 a pop, it's the no-brainer buying decision.
Or better yet! Why don't they give out the console for free! And pay you to take the games off retailers shelves!
[/sarcasm]
I'm looking forward to the launch of the Wii too, but let's not get carried away here. Nintendo has to adjust for inflation eventually, so consoles aren't going to launch under $200 anymore. And you fail to take into consideration the fact that the dollar is weak against the yen.
All this speculation is just setting up Nintendo for a fall. $250 is a reasonable price point. $200 is overly optimistic. $150 is foolish. What's going to happen when Nintendo announces a $250 launch price is that everyone who convinced themselves that it was going to launch for $150 is going to disappoint themselves - even though it will still be $50 - $100 less than the XBox 360!
Let's try to keep grounded in reality here.
Ok lets talk specs. Sources are from wiki and sites mentioned in above comments.
CPU: GC = 485 MHz IBM Power PC "Gekko" | WII = (rumored) 729 Mhz IB Power PC 790 FX
So this must be the "1.5" argument. Another poor soul who thinks processing power is the primary component of speed. I think its debatable if it's underpowered, but saying it's 1.5 times as fast is silly because the pipelines, instruction set extensions, materials, and god knows what else affects overall throughput. I have a new amd turion 64 2.0 GHz. My old model was an amd athlon 2.20 GHz. The new one compiles faster...
MEMORY: GC = 40 mg | WII = 512 mb of flash, possibly some other stuff
Well this is over 10 times more, not 1.5 more. And I believe this is a key component to the true perceived speed of this thing (besides the vid card). One thing nintendo seemed smart enough to realize is that new games are going to need a $hit load of memory, pardon my french. People want fast load times in large complex environments. This requires (fast!) memory. READ: memory is often more important than processing power.
Vid Card: from the rage3d rumor mill web site:
***
Revolution's ATI-provided "Hollywood" GPU clocks in at 243MHz. By comparison, GameCube's GPU ran at 162MHz, while the GPU on the original Xbox was clocked at 233MHz. Sources we spoke with suggest that it is unlikely the GPU will feature any added shaders, as has been speculated. "The 'Hollywood' is a large-scale integrated chip that includes the GPU, DSP, I/O bridge and 3MBs of texture memory," a studio source told us.
***
So again, we only see small change in processor speed, therefore its just 1.5 times better (sarcasm). Who knows what silly cartoon shading nutty graphics enhancements this video card features?
"Recursive bipartite matching"- try it!
Don't forget... I read somewhere that the GameCube controllers will work on the Wii. Talk about savings. That way I don't need to rush out and buy a bunch of controllers. Oh, and the Cube games will work on it too. Bonus. Sounds like Nintendo is ramping up for a winner. I have to say I hope to see stores start stocking more than 2 shelves of Nintendo games compared to a whole aisle of the other systems. As a Cube owner it's depressing to have poor selection, or see a commercial for a sweet game only to see the tag line: Only for PC, PS2 & Xbox. Game selection and price will be the KEY factors, not specs.
scratch the memory card.... the unit has a half a gig of flash memory for save games and other data. good enough to start. to expand, buy more flash memory later, or (as it is rumored) and external USB drive.