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VW Raises the Bar for Self-Driving Vehicles

Old Man Kensey writes "According to the UK Daily Mail, VW has produced a prototype Golf (code-named "53 plus 1" in a reference to Herbie the Love Bug) that successfully steers and accelerates itself at speeds up to 150 MPH on tracks designed on the spot without pre-programming. It sounds almost too good to be true given some of the problems CMU's prototype has had over the years, but perhaps VW has learned from and extended CMU's research (and within-an-inch GPS positioning probably helps too)."

177 comments

  1. GPS? by Bombula · · Score: 0

    Can anybody explain to us when "within-an-inch" GPS technology became available, as well as how and possibly why?

    --
    A-Bomb
    1. Re:GPS? by kripkenstein · · Score: 4, Informative

      "GPS accuracy can be improved further, to about 1 cm (half an inch) over short distances, using techniques such as Differential GPS (DGPS)." - Wikipedia

    2. Re:GPS? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Q: why does GPS even matter if this thing is supposed to be able to road-follow and do obstacle avoidance?

      A: someone posted below that this thing drives the course once, slowly and then spends a while (30 mins) computing/optimizing, and then drives. Placing a human, deer, or other obstacle in front that wasn't there could/would result in the vehicle crashing. Supposedly this is designed for testing tires/tracks repeatably.

    3. Re:GPS? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One possibility is that the US military have let them access the military timing signal for this prototype.

    4. Re:GPS? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Great, now with a ballistics computer operated rifle and GPS someone could put a bullet between the eyes of anyone thats been "tagged" that is within the firing range of the weapon ( miles ). With enough input sensors for weather etc. and extreme control of the loads could produce amazing accuracy. For that matter wouldnt even have to tag the person, just have the GPS data for where you know they will be at x time, say a preset speaker's podium at an outdoor event. This is assuming of course there is a clear trajectory for the bullet. This makes sense from my limited knowledge anyway.

    5. Re:GPS? by silverkniveshotmail. · · Score: 1

      there's the issue of wind, along with the fact that when you're dealing with inches, between the eyes is a very narrow target

    6. Re:GPS? by Murphy+Murph · · Score: 1

      You don't need the "military" code.
      By comparing the propagation delay between the L1 (1575.42 MHz) and the L2 (1227.6 MHz) frequencies you can model ionosphere effects and achieve quite a bit of improvement.
      Real Time Differential only gives you sub-meter results, regardless of what wikipedia states.
      Real Time Kinematic; using a receiver set up on a know point which transmits a correction factor for every satellite to your rover, is the best way to achieve cm level results (in real time).

      As for why - land surveyors love the shit. Not a replacement for conventional instruments, never will be, but a very useful tool.

      --
      I dub thee... Sir Phobos, Knight of Mars, Beater of Ass.
    7. Re:GPS? by cskrat · · Score: 1

      Don't forget slight differences in muzzle velocities from one bullet to the next. Not too big of a problem if your working within human+scope line of sight, but it becomes significant if you're trying to lob a couple ounce slug over obstacles toward your target. It would be best to use a small spread if you want to be sure of hitting your target or find another method if you can't have collateral damage.

      --
      My God! It's full of eval()'s.
    8. Re:GPS? by lagnis · · Score: 1

      Yeah, road construction around here is done with machine-controlled machines with GPS/GLONASS equipment to guide them, using RTK. We only use total-stations and other 'conventional instruments' when the margin of error is in mm instead of cm. Of course, if something disturbs the radio signal from the base you lose the accuracy, so I wouldn't want to sit in a car using that kind of system yet.

    9. Re:GPS? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget slight differences in muzzle velocities from one bullet to the next. Not too big of a problem if your working within human+scope line of sight, but it becomes significant if you're trying to lob a couple ounce slug over obstacles toward your target. It would be best to use a small spread if you want to be sure of hitting your target or find another method if you can't have collateral damage.

      So that explains why some Marine snipers can repeatedly hit a 12" target 1000 yards away? Do they somehow anticipate the velocity difference between the bullets?

    10. Re:GPS? by Eternauta3k · · Score: 0

      Differential GPS requires stations which, although available in the US (and if they're not right now, they'll be soon), you don't have many of abroad. Setting them up is a bitch because each station has to know its precise location.

      --
      Yeah. Would you choose a neurosurgeon who pokes around people's brains in his spare time? I wouldn't.
    11. Re:GPS? by silverkniveshotmail. · · Score: 1
      Don't forget slight differences in muzzle velocities from one bullet to the next. Not too big of a problem if your working within human+scope line of sight, but it becomes significant if you're trying to lob a couple ounce slug over obstacles toward your target. It would be best to use a small spread if you want to be sure of hitting your target or find another method if you can't have collateral damage. So that explains why some Marine snipers can repeatedly hit a 12" target 1000 yards away? Do they somehow anticipate the velocity difference between the bullets?
      how many miles are there in 1000 yards? which is larger: the space between ones eyes, or a 12" disc Good choice in staying anonymous, I wouldn't want anyone to know I said something that stupid either.
  2. No signal by andyck · · Score: 2, Funny

    car: No GPS signal driver: OHHHH SHITTT car: Grab the wheel if you want to live!

    1. Re:No signal by eclectro · · Score: 4, Funny


      A tunnel?!?! OHhh NOOOOoooooo...!!

      --
      Take the cheese to sickbay, the doctor should see it as soon as possible - B'Elanna Torres, "Learning Curve"
    2. Re:No signal by gjuk · · Score: 5, Informative

      Actually - some car-based GPS systems link up to the car's other sensors (accelerometer, speed, steering, parking radar, etc). While they're not accurate for any long distance, they're perfectly good for a short distance (maybe a few hundred metres) and the software in the system can use this info in the temporary absence of a GPS signal.

    3. Re:No signal by IdleTime · · Score: 1
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      If you mod me down, I *will* introduce you to my sister!
    4. Re:No signal by Millenniumman · · Score: 1

      The car should still be able to drive, it just wouldn't know how to get anywhere. So you'd be safe, but lost.

      --
      Stupidity is like nuclear power, it can be used for good or evil. And you don't want to get any on you.
    5. Re:No signal by MBCook · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm pretty sure I've seen my van do that.

      What I wonder about is why the link doesn't go the other way. I live in a hilly area. Some hills are large, some are tiny. The large hills can trip up the automatic transmission on my car. By the time it decides "I ought to downshift" I'm at about the bottom of the hill and and it has to shift back almost immediatly. Now I have learned how to avoid this by when I push the gas on those hills and such, but it got me thinking.

      Why not use mapping data to feed the automatic transmission? The data would be a suppliment to tell the car's computer "we're going up a long hill that has a slope of x degrees" or "this hill is short". That additional information would surely be helpful. You would need topographic information in the mapping data (as opposed to pretending the Earth is flat), but it might make up for it. At the very least, you could keep a memory of the 50 miles of road the driver drives on most (their home area) and the elevation for those spots. This would give the same advantage over most of the area the driver drives, without having to have all that topographic data for everywhere else. This data could be gleaned from the GPS and would fix the little "problems" like I described above.

      I would think this would all lead to better fuel effiency. At worst, if the system failed, you'd be back to what all automatic transmissions do today.

      Of course, CVTs wouldn't need this. And they are simpler. And more efficent. But we can't put those in every new car. Then what would all the transmission shops do?

      --
      Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
  3. Daily Mail by Duds · · Score: 2, Informative

    Just a note to point out the Daily Mail is roughly half a step about the National Inquirer in terms of credability, so this one could be entirely fictional.

    1. Re:Daily Mail by joe+155 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      whilst I don't know what the National Inquirer's credibility is like I would highly doubt if the Mail would publish something which is truely fictional. They do exagerate a few things and love to complain about anything, but I've never seen an out and out lie in the paper

      --
      *''I can't believe it's not a hyperlink.''
    2. Re:Daily Mail by O0o0Oblubb!O0o0O · · Score: 3, Informative

      German news magazine "Der Spiegel" has a pretty high credibility and they carry the same story:

      http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/0,1518,424288,0 0.html

      Unfortunately, the article does not seem to available in English.

    3. Re:Daily Mail by LordSnooty · · Score: 4, Informative

      You're not familiar with Sunday paper journalism in the UK? Nearly every title will, every week, feature some kind of "exclusive" blue-sky puff-piece about a "new" technology or scientific "breakthrough" which is invariably based on studies or announcements made months ago, or is in fact a highly speculative "what-if?" prediction. If the story contains the sentence, "scientist/engineers predict that in ten years' time...", then you know it's probably not worth reading for ten years.

    4. Re:Daily Mail by Tony+Hoyle · · Score: 1

      It's usually 5 years in my experience..

      "Scientists predict that the pill to cure cancer will be available in about 5 years"
      "Scientists predict that the flying car will be available in the shops in about 5 years"
      etc. etc.

      Papers like the daily mail take a few random facts and build an entire mythology around them... unfortunately they don't just do it for their science pieces - the daily mail is legendary for doing it with political issues too (google for the 'daily mail island' sketch.. still as funny now as it was then). Of course they're in a competition with the daily express for who can be most outrageously right wing (the mail - the paper that supported hitler just prior to WW2 - as a *massive* head start though).

    5. Re:Daily Mail by jawtheshark · · Score: 5, Informative

      Well, in summary (I just read the Spiegel article), the car in question first learns the track based on traffic cones. Actually, the only thing this cars knows are traffic cones. A program then runs on the collected data and calculates the "ideal" path. When the finanlly activate the "racing mode", the car "simply" drives the studied track and that *blindly*. There need not to be any traffic cones, and it will not stop if something unexpected happens (so if a rabbit jumps in it's way, the researches will have rabbit for dinner) It does react a bit on the data from the sensors in the racing mode, but it's more for avoiding small variations in the track like a wet spot.

      The car itself is pretty much a standard Golf GTI 2.0 Turbo (200HP) and the only thing they changed was stronger braking. They use the default sensors to make the program learn. Also, in the Spiegel article, there is not any mention of GPS.

      Oh, and the research isn't intended to make auto-driving cars for you and me. They want to create a way that cars do exactly the same test runs on test-tracks to check the settings of the car. The results would be more reproductible. If anything, this tech is to put test-drivers out of work ;-)

      They also mention that some of the tech was derived from a Touareg that they used in a competition of the US Defense Department in the Nevada desert. However, that one had completely different goals.

      I'm sorry that I didn't translate the whole thing, but it was just too long.

      --
      Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
    6. Re:Daily Mail by Snorpus · · Score: 1
      That would be Stanley, the modified VW that edged out CMU's H1ghlander and Sandstorm in last year's DARPA Grand Challenge.

    7. Re:Daily Mail by Cal+Paterson · · Score: 1

      It would be useful to remember that this is the same paper that pushed the MMR Jab issue; telling people that it would give kids autism and bowel diseases.

      A healthly amount of skepticism when dealing with the Daily Mail would be wise.

    8. Re:Daily Mail by Millenniumman · · Score: 2, Funny

      Here is the entire article:

      Volkswagen of the company of the thing to which it at least goes councils of the technology of the administration of the human being of machine for the second one turns the realizer. For how much regards those rather than to make the last one scompartimento, without suspensoid of the operator of fast warm turret widely. The mirror of 1 where same they are the lines given it are hit in any case. It is not sufficient time. Handlingparkors we have given to the problem, officially hardly in we same, as far as others those of these periods perhaps, if odontoiatria Kial that you say: The line of the foot and passion of the complete movement of pleasant time. Of consequence, calculating that can cause one an other distinction, the operator who Sunday is between 0 and 1 it would have to be the fixed sign. The conclusion of scompartimento of Volkswagen of companies 53 + 1: From later on as far as the alley of search on the template heating the survey of radar + the last gas scompartimento to where in the second one directly written extremity to give behind, from the company of Volkswagen. A coil of four turbos of champions of the motor 200 Holt under the Bakrd protection, only festivities third or because of quarter turns. But it demands that, from ütchengasse H, hardly 2/3 of the periods it do not have effect of the product on the small wheel of the sense. Since there is this, like for the last scompartimento experiment of high escape the operator whom it has carried out 53 + one, in the calculating, paper, within beyond that true easy feeding was one in in charge of the part posterior of this day. Great names 53 + one they are interprets to you within the sense that is the same way: History and section of the operator of Rongwai of scompartimento of the search that hour has company of Volkswagen in the race/lace automobile that initially the grassy carpet several first of satisfied Alkhnevsh film "to 53 and of the east is discovered of the successor that it is value. And it is in means of employing the experiment of the Transposition Volkswagen de Touareg Nevada after during 1 year. The system of teledetection of the automobile of where currently search of the American the defense of the passenger is 10 equipped without section, and he is faster of the this road of the desert approximately 200 kilometers. While "Stanley the hole of the stone, or after that the firm ones of the Crimea that cronometrano, to rifinire exclusively the turn of suspensoid of the glance. As soon as between speed of the first phase while trying systematically, one of the installation of the radiocaesium of the range member of the women's army auxiliary corps of vision of where the Parkors net the probe of the laser is thin, the list of H elaborates in those classified close ütchen. The warehouse that nobody that is in charge of suspension range within the video it has been made and the extremities have been criticized development and were progressive of the calculating interval circular program little detailed gives small. Then the model line learns the minute in if of the önnt of the 30 computers of the guarantee lack G and to be broken eye automatic rifle of understood it. With realizer of parking of voie/du the truck for how much the investigator of the university regards the mountain of program and from Amburgo has classified close Simon is begun. As far as these programs of 30 rare parts the line optimum of ütchengasse that it is H that has been calculated. As far as the highest decision that are taken beginning from the house and of the software of administration of Konsorten and the interval that As it tries after the spirit before complete point of the brake one the other adapted the sense that chooses majority in order to decide complete beam, the list of the section. With all these articles of the information and method to indicate the electronic councils then appreciate the electron that it is prepared, moreover like especially in Akilirotor, sense of the registry that does not h

      --
      Stupidity is like nuclear power, it can be used for good or evil. And you don't want to get any on you.
    9. Re:Daily Mail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ah, the Daily HateMail.

      Britain's foremost publication of right-wing propaganda!

    10. Re:Daily Mail by mcrbids · · Score: 1

      Oh, and the research isn't intended to make auto-driving cars for you and me. They want to create a way that cars do exactly the same test runs on test-tracks to check the settings of the car. The results would be more reproductible. If anything, this tech is to put test-drivers out of work ;-)

      Which brings into mind something that I've really run into repeatedly as a software engineer - the difference between tests and reality. It's amazing what people do!

      I've long been an advocate of agile software development methods such as Extreme Programming because of its ability to deliver software that works fast with minimal resource expense. However, the test-driven model of software (compose the test first, then write the software to match the test, then refine the test, wash - rinse - repeat) fails to account for the scenario unforseen by the test writer.

      People can do some very unexpected things. For example,

      1) They can double-click on a web link, as they've become accustomed to with everything on the desktop, causing it to be processed twice. (caused serious hell in one case)

      2) Make extensive use of the back button, even when it makes no sense to do so, then causing duplicate entries in a multi-stage process.

      3) Click "OK" on a bright red, dire warning with bolded letters and even type "I UNDERSTAND" in all caps, without ever reading anything, and then complain bitterly about the result.

      I've seen all of these, and many more, and have learned that what constitutes a "bug" is very, very VERY relative to what the user expects. The software could work perfectly to spec and design, and pass immense testing, and be exactly what all involved agreed was just critical - and still be perfectly and totally unusable.

      Thus, my focus has shifted slightly from XP to so-called "Agile Programming - less emphasis on formalized testing and more emphasis on user feedback. Our software has a software development turnaround cycle of about 1-2 weeks. We implement few fixes or features, test to a "reasonable" standard, and kick. Wash, rinse, repeat. Expect any new development to be adjusted or refactored 3, 4, 5, even 10 times after release.

      We've kicked out some 46 releases of our software in the past year alone. The software updates itself in just moments, and the update is voluntary - if the user doesn't want to, they click "OK" one time when they start the program.

      Reviews in our industry of our product have been rave. It works!

      --
      I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
  4. Rocker-Bogie by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wasn't it also CMU who also researched the rocker-bogie suspension? VW should put that on one of their cars. Then they'd finally have a real off-road vehicle. They wouldn't have to worry about navigating along the road. They could just drive over the cars in the way!

    Come to think of it, I wonder why people don't use the rocker-bogie suspension, especially the military...

    1. Re:Rocker-Bogie by pedantic+bore · · Score: 1
      No springs, no shocks...

      Cute and ingenious design but not something you'd want to go faster than about 2mph.

      (Let the obvious rocker-boogie jokes begin...)

      --
      Am I part of the core demographic for Swedish Fish?
  5. Research by Umbral+Blot · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is a good illustration of why research funded by a corperation is more likely to achieve results than that of academics. Academics are free to pursue whatever is most interesting as they work, and it is ok to get off on a tangent as long as some papers come out of it. However if you work for a company you need to get results, hence this car. Of course this model doesn't work quite as well for theoretical physics, but well enough for the computer science. I suspect we would have AI already if it could be turned directly into a product.

    1. Re:Research by pedantic+bore · · Score: 4, Informative
      Not exactly... Who do you think funds the academics?

      It's true that academics can pursue riskier, more speculative areas of research. It's cost-effective for them to do so; they've got less overhead and grad students are cheap, and success criteria is different than for businesses -- publish a bunch of well-regarded, widely-cited papers, and you're in good shape. (you never need to earn back the investment money)

      However, academics get their money from businesses and funding agencies who do have their eye on the bottom line. If an academic doesn't work on something that they feel is relevant (or abandons research they're funded to do in order to work on something cooler) then the money dries up really fast.

      I've been on both sides of this (currently funder, formerly fundee) and I can tell you without doubt that academic research is a market, just like everything else.

      --
      Am I part of the core demographic for Swedish Fish?
    2. Re:Research by tsa · · Score: 1

      This is no science. This is technology.

      --

      -- Cheers!

    3. Re:Research by Ruins · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The VW project sits on a few different fields of research under the umbrella term "Robotics", such as mobile robotics (path planning, SLAM, range sensor, scan matching), computer vision (getting meaning from video, tracking objects visually) and machine learning (training various software systems based on learning data, like road colour for example). All these fields have plenty of open problems and many problems that can only be solved in "controlled", a.k.a. near-trivial, environments.

      Just a few points about your post:
      1) AI will not already be available if it was a commerical effort. Not for at least a few more decades. This is coming from what I have read as a PhD student in Robotics and Computer Vision, so I *may* be a bit pessimistic. But many of the researchers I have talked to, both in and our of academia, feel the same

      2) Making an intelligent machine is hard, and it is a long term goal. Commercial projects generally require short term results. The academic research setting allows for long term research that may yield useful results 5-10 years from now. To give you an example, try search for SIFT, which came from academic research, and is now used in many commercial software and robotics products.

      3) I seriously doubt self-driving cars can make it to our streets anytime soon. Apart from the lack of adaptable machine learning and robotics systems, the *legal* problems will take a long time to overcome. Our legal systems, at lesat, in Western countries, will have major issues dealing with any semi-intelligent systems that makes decisions for us. Decisions which may directly cause injury and death. Liability is a problem when a learning system passes standardized tests, and it makes a mistake. Who is responsible, the system?

      --
      Berserk Manga > All
    4. Re:Research by pimpimpim · · Score: 1

      Hi, I'm currently a fundee, but where can I apply to a position of funder? Sounds like a nice job to me! ;)

      --
      molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
    5. Re:Research by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That sounds good, but guess what. We could literally do this (at a slightly slower speed to computation speeds) in the mid 90's. It's insanely easy. Picking out traffic cones visually is childs play, and the technology is literally in childrens toys now (how do you think aibo see's a bright pink ball?). Traffic cones are orange, building a software filter which sees only that wavelength of light is trivial. Mount two camera's, do a little trig and wam, you've got your traffic cone placement. Now do some curve fitting with a few heuristics to figure out which side of each cone you should be on. Now you just do a little path planning, some simple path optimization with a little bit of reactive control using a simple PID controller and whatever sensors you have on hand. Seriously, give me a car with 2 camera's, some wheel input and a few sensors and I (alone) could have this up in a month.

      Sorry, I'm not impressed. The "hard" part of this problem is the vision part, and they totally sidestepped that. The rest is just elementary robotics and a little reactive control to deal with slippage. This is nothing like what the academics are trying to do.

    6. Re:Research by pedantic+bore · · Score: 1
      Trust me -- it's more fun to do the research than cut the checks.

      --
      Am I part of the core demographic for Swedish Fish?
    7. Re:Research by indrax · · Score: 1

      I suspect we would have AI already if it could be turned directly into a product. How do you figure? Even ignoring the the potential for a singularity, the income possibilities for a decent AI are huge: Cheap but pleasing and polite telephone customer service. Video monitoring and loss prevention. 'Search' Medical diagnosis Any company that develops a generic intelligence will very quickly become the largest company in the world. (assuming no one else does rolls their own very very quickly) There is almost no product or service that can'tbe improved or replaced by AI. And that's not even counting: Robotics (household, manufacturing, military, DRIVING) Entertainment (everything done now, plus good game AI opponents and sex bots) Programming (including new AI's) Automated invention and design. (Hey look Dave, I just found a cure for cancer!) How's that for turning directly into a product? AI has gotten relatively low commercial funding because it is high risk, and people have gotten burned on it. Now that academic research has brought us seemingly much closer, more and more investors will place their bets.

    8. Re:Research by sacrilicious · · Score: 1
      research funded by a corperation is more likely to achieve results than that of academics. Academics are free to pursue whatever is most interesting as they work, and it is ok to get off on a tangent as long as some papers come out of it. However if you work for a company you need to get results

      It would be wrong to conclude that academic research is therefor a waste. Companies do generally demand results, but more to the point: companies demand results within rigid timeframes. The net result is that companies probably produce more useful results given a short window of time, but would never get to many of the useful results that require longer-term windows and various speculative mis-steps along the way that academic research opens doors to. I assume you're not advocating the elimination of academic research, but to make a point: the elimination of academic research would quickly lead to a thoroughly limited and inbred pool of company research. Generally speaking, profit-driven company ongoings tend to be more "development" than research, and are most productive in the "last mile" application stage, and worth a lot less in the early pioneering stages. And when companies ocassionally do invest heavily in true research, they're a lot more focused on locking up the results in patents and lawsuits than academics are.

      --
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  6. Oiled by ozmanjusri · · Score: 4, Funny
    VW Raises the Bar for Self-Driving Vehicles

    Self-Driving Vehicle promptly hits the bar, gets thoroughly oiled and rolls off into the red light district looking for a "service".

    --
    "I've got more toys than Teruhisa Kitahara."
  7. And this is why I don't feel comfortable by rolfwind · · Score: 4, Interesting
    lettin a car let me drive. The article goes on to state an experience in 1991:

    Everything worked perfectly until Pomerleau got to a bridge. The Humvee swerved dangerously, and he was forced to grab the wheel. It took him weeks of analyzing the data to figure out what had gone wrong: When he was "teaching" the car to drive, he had been on roads with grass alongside them. The computer had determined that this was among the most important factors in staying on the road: Keep the grass at a certain distance and all will be well. When the grass suddenly disappeared, the computer panicked.


    And that bug is probably fixed by now, but the problem is, how do we determine we worked out all the bugs? We can't even do that with Linux/Windows/Anything. The closest we come to that in the OS world is a microkernel with only a few thousands lines of code and controlled input.

    But how do we ever determine a program that learns and is subject to varying, uncontrolled data inputs is bug free? You can't and I wouldn't want to see the first literal blue screen of death when it happens.

    I don't want to sound like a luddite, but the article mentions that planes have been flying autopilot (did they forget to mention landing/taking off is still done by the pilot) since the 1970s. But I believe we'll have flying cars before self-driving* cars because the problem is several hundreds of a magnitude easier in empty 3D space where all you have to do is stay high enough off the ground and avoid collisions via radar/whatnot.

    *The only way is I see anything coming close to a self-driving car is on highways where lanes get marked magnetically and driving problem gets reduce to the car having to stay X feet behind the car in front of it.
    1. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by achesterase · · Score: 4, Informative

      Just for your info, planes have been landing themselves for ages. Autoland is used routinely in very low visibility conditions where it would not otherwise be legal to land the aircraft manually, unless you were using special equipment like a HUGS. If you're interested on learning more, search for Cat III autoland in Google..

    2. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Fullhazard · · Score: 2, Informative

      Comparing a computer driving system to windows is a bad idea.
      Firstly, Windows is an operating system. That means every day hundreds of brand new programs are written for it that have the possibility of screwing each other, and the system, up. If windows was only capable of running one program (Office, probably), the crash rate would go down to 1/1000000 (which, I believe, is better than human drivers)
      Secondly, when windows crashes nobody DIES. Compare car-driving programs to programs that run in hospitals to monitor patients. When one of those messes up, people are put into dangerous circumstances, and as a result, they are made significantly safer.

      Of course, your entire thing about 'not trusting cars that are taught' is moot
      The VW prototype wasn't taught how to drive, or at least it doesn't make that assertion in the article. The 'learning cars' were prototypes developed to win contests/grant money, not be street legal.

      Oh, and about Autopilot? Here's what Wikipedia has to say on the issue:
      Modern autopilots generally divide a flight into taxi, take-off, ascent, level, descent, approach, landing, and taxi phases. Autopilots exist that automate all of these flight phases except the taxiing. Landing on runway and controlling the aircraft on rollout i.e keeping it on the centre of the runway is cat 3b landing, used on the majority of major runways today.
      Autopilots are easily capable of taking off and landing planes.

      The way I see it, you're underestimating the power of computers. Remember, in order to drive a car, the controller doesn't have to be smarter than a person.
      It just has to be smarter than a 16 year old (15 in some states)

    3. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by njh · · Score: 1

      I understand where you are coming from, but evidence is that humans aren't very good either. And having several million cars out there experimenting with this new tech might reduce the odds of a problem to less than that of a human driver.

      Considering many of the drivers round here, I'd rather they used a cyberchauffeur...

      (Incidently, the Chauffeur were 'Brigands in bands, who, about 1793, pillaged, burned, and killed in parts of France; -- so called because they used to burn the feet of their victims to extort money.'. Now I've heard of hot foot drivers, but I wonder how the word became associated with professional drivers?)

    4. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At least in the US, drivers are likely to be resistant to autodrive for two main reasons: 1) they like the feel of driving; 2) an autodrive car would obey speed limits and stop at red lights.

    5. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Yaotzin · · Score: 1
      The way I see it, you're underestimating the power of computers. Remember, in order to drive a car, the controller doesn't have to be smarter than a person. It just has to be smarter than a 16 year old (15 in some states)
      I'm sorry, that confused me a bit. Are you saying that a 16-year-old is not a person?
      --
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    6. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by jtogel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The problem you mention, that you don't know exactly how the system will behave under all possible conditions, is a problem we have with all computer programs, especially those that include learning. On the other hand, this is a problem we have with humans as well. The reason (well, one of them) that we let humans drive is that we have done such extensive testing with humans driving, to see under which conditions they can drive safely and under which conditions the "behave unexpectedly" (icy roads, fog, weird intersection layouts, poorly marked turns etc). In the process, tens of thousands of humans drove themselves to death.

      So I wouldn't count out self-driving cars until we have done the same amount of testing with them.

      Another way we can try to make self-driving cars safer is to use something like Rodney Brooks' Subsumption Architecture, where the controller is structured into layers. The higher layers are responsible for "high-level" behaviour like navigating and planning fuel consumption, while lower layers do simpler things like avoid driving into walls based on sonar information. If a higher layer falls, the lower layers operate just fine without it. The function of the very lowest layer could then be just to stop the car if all the higher layers fail. Given that the layers are separate circuits, it's very unlikely that all will fail simultaneously.

      Much of the design can be automated. I'm myself working on using evolutionary algorithms to design car controllers. So far we do quite simple things and only in simulation, but with a good enough simulation it could then be transferred to a real car. Check out this post, including videos.

    7. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Fullhazard · · Score: 0

      No, but the average 16-year-old behaves alot like a computer in many respects, i.e. it acts logically most of the time but it sometimes 'crashes' for no reason, doing completely illogical things for no reason, inevitably causing mayhem... Plus, that section was meant as a joke, to liven up the all too interesting area of 'trained neural network navigating systems'

    8. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by 91degrees · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Perhaps, but I'd quite like a car that I could drive somewhere, press a button and have it drive home, then I can call it and it comes to pick me up (and drives me home if I've been drinking).

    9. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by MindStalker · · Score: 1

      Umm you've obviously never had kids. The answer to your question is an obvious, NO.

      But seriously the original poster was saying they need to have better driving abilities than a 16 year old. Though having a world of 17 year old virtual drivers scares me as well.

    10. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by MindStalker · · Score: 1

      Chauffeur is french for "to heat"
      In the first times of railroads, the driver had to keep the engine hot, hence the name.

      The fact that this Brigand was called Chauffeur as well is coincidental.

    11. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Neoncow · · Score: 2, Insightful
      2) an autodrive car would obey speed limits and stop at red lights.
      Or it would eventually eliminate red lights forever. Maybe I'm a dreamer, but one day I would like to have my car drive me to work while I'm napping (assuming I can't telecommute that day).
    12. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by siriuskase · · Score: 1

      But the pilot is still paying attention. If he isn't, he's got a copilot and maybe others backing him up, keeping him honest. If they are all sleeping or goofing off, that just shouldn't happen if the crew is at all professional.

      In the world of private automobiles, it would be different. The better the car got at driving itself, the more likely the "driver" would focus all his attention on something incompatible with monitoring the car. Just compare drivers of stick and automatic. The stick drivers must pay more attention to the sounds and feel of the car. Drivers of automatics have a hand free for other tasks and probably don't listen to the engine much either, especially if they buy cars with quiet interiors and quality sound systems. I'm teaching my kid to drive both cars. He prefers the stick, where he must listen to the car and still has a hard time when the radio is on. Just to keep him in the habit, I have him listen to automatic when it shifts. I want him to have the habit of paying attention to the car, the road, other drivers, and then maybe the radio.

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    13. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Airbus has an autoland function.

    14. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by siriuskase · · Score: 1

      Imagine the ramificatons at the work place. The best thing about commuting is that it gets you to the office wide awake and alert and ready to settle down to the days tasks. Now you'll have to find a particularly scary and dangerous project to devote to your first hour of the day.

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    15. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by MindStalker · · Score: 1

      Luckily in a true autonoumous system the speed limit would be higher and red lights would either be timed better or there would be no red lights at all (smart cars can be programmed to match speeds so that they glide through an intersection without hitting eachother smoothly this is extremly scary but safe)

    16. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by fprintf · · Score: 1

      Maybe the solution is strict driver licensing for auto-drive, much like they do for pilots with restricted visiblity flying. Add into that additional penalties for failure to obey certain rules, like staying awake, or not doing manual drive in the auto drive lane. Then if you give the additional incentive of allowing the car to drive 20mph+ or faster than the posted limit without then folks would have enough self-interest to drive an auto-drive vehicle.

      You could even combine incentives -- give the HOV lanes over to auto-drive cars. Then every car that rides in an HOV lane must be in auto-drive, and every car auto-driving must have 2 or more people in it.

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    17. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But overall they'd help people get to their destination much faster. why?
      because they'd ALSO help the general flow of traffic.
      how many times do you see the guy/woman who on the spur of the moment dives into an exit ramp or out of one?
      Human error and impatience are the main contributing factor of rush hour/stop and go traffic.
      The invention of metering lights, while frustrating has alleviated a lot of the issues with freeway and local traffic conditions.
      These factors don't matter much between 9am - 3pm, but when people start hitting the road, TRAFFIC is what happens.
      No matter how many lights you disobey (red camera lights now in key metro areas) or how fast you go, you will not get faster to your destination in the middle of rush hour. Maybe the most you will gain is 4-5 minutes, but then again, you should have LEFT sooner than later. That's the problem with US drivers. privledged born procrastination.

    18. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by CastrTroy · · Score: 1

      The problem is, is that with human error, you can always just blame it on the person. With computer controller automobiles, even 100 accidents a year (in the entire US) would be enough to keep the lawyers busy, and probably keeping the auto companies from making a venture like this profitable. Just think of how many accidents happen when it's icy. Now imagine if the auto companies had to pay for even a fraction of the accidents, because it was "their fault".

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    19. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually planes as old as the 747(not the original more like version 400) can take off and land themselves but pilots continue to do it a) because they like to fly b) job security c) they feel more comfortable this way, and maybe other reasons but Im not yet a pilot, just in my 2nd year at a flight college.

    20. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by siriuskase · · Score: 1

      After reading another message about how the autodrive car only has to be better than a 15 year old (I actually have one of those), I suddenly feel much more comfortable with the notion.

      I do think you make a good point about segregation of the autodrive cars and the others since even if the autodriver isn't necessarily the best driver on the road, it will "think", drive, and react differently than a human driver. I think as a human, I would eventually learn to anticipate the actions of an autodriver just as I have learned to anticipate the actions of various types of humans. It's like putting trucks, buses, taxis, and other professionals in their own lanes, local people on different roads than people headed to Florida, and maybe have teenagers on their own roads. Actually, it would be impractical to have all those lanes, but some smart traffic engineer might be able to figure out which vehicle classes might be able to safely share a piece of the road.

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    21. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Neoncow · · Score: 1

      Funny, I noticed that the first thing people do in the day is socialize to and get coffee. Maybe the self-driving cars could have a built in conference room and coffee machine. Then everyone could get that over with before they ever arrive at work.

    22. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by siriuskase · · Score: 1

      I can see that, or we want to limit to current technology, we can catch up on email and read slashdot

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    23. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by siriuskase · · Score: 1

      I might be able to save some money by buying a car that isn't programmed for icy conditions. Then I could just stay home on icy days. Why buy a car that's overengineered since it only ices here once or twice a year? The auto company would be immune if it did ice up and I did take the car for a spin.

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    24. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      If the car drove itself, you wouldn't be rushing to get the task over with. you'd just do something else while the car was taking care of the mundane crap. Also, the car never gets fatigued. You don't need to "make good time" if you don't need to stop and rest.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    25. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cheap(by aviation standards) autopilots can fly approaches right down to minimums, which is about 200 ft from the runway.

    26. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Neoncow · · Score: 1

      Hmm.. Both good points, but getting rid of traffic lights would really help me nap better (it's very hard to nap in a car that is constantly stopping and starting). Therefore, we need to implement this right now.

      To make it easier to implement, the autodriving cars could go slower (because as you mentioned we don't need to make good time).

      As a computer science student, I'm a fan of efficiency. There is the time savings of a few seconds * every traffic light * every car * the number of people in each car. Also, there will be less wear on the brakes. Finally, it would waste less energy (starting + stopping = wasteful). With the increasing popularity of hybrid cars, the mild braking action in the simulation would significantly increase milage.

    27. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      100% in agreement! I drove with a manual gearbox from my first lesson, and carried on after passing and getting a car, driving work vehicles etc.

      Last year I moved and circumstances forced a change to an automatic (you simply can't get manuals in my price range here). I know my driving is suffering from it, I'm getting lazy. Driving a manual, I had to anticipate corners to be in the correct gear, descend hills using engine braking etc. Now in the automatic I just plonk my foot on the accelerator and steer. I descend hills by riding the brake, the same as everyone else here does.

      And here's the kicker, I'm not paying attention to what's going on outside the car either. Stopped at a large junction waiting for a break in the traffic so I can turn and cross the oncoming lanes, I'd be balancing on the clutch in a manual, but I'd just got my foot on the brake, staring mindlessly at the traffic. See a gap, left foot up, right foot down, come within an inch of hitting a cyclist coming out of my blind spot. I've never had an accident or come close to it before, but now I don't even know when I stopped checking my blindspots before pulling out.

      This might seem an off-topic rant about automatics, but I'll bring it back to the discussion of self-steering cars.

      Until we have cars that can reliably drive around without needing any kind of human monitoring, until we have ONLY auto-drive cars on the roads, I will not buy any vehicle that reduces what I need to think about while driving. No driving assist, braking assist, hell I'd rather not have ABS (I was taught cadence braking and can brake faster than cars with the older style ABS).

      Next month I'll have a manual gearbox again. Hopefully I can regain my lost skills and attention to the road.

    28. Re:And this is why I don't feel comfortable by Jeremi · · Score: 1
      But how do we ever determine a program that learns and is subject to varying, uncontrolled data inputs is bug free?


      We can't, of course, but the thing is that the same problem applies to human drivers. How do we ever determine that a human that learns and is subject to varying, uncontrolled data inputs won't suddenly black out, go crazy, fall asleep, etc?


      We can't do that either, so in both cases it just comes down to doing lots and lots of exhaustive testing until we are comfortable that all the reasonably likely failure modes have been found and accounted for. You won't catch me in a computer-driven car this year or next year, but maybe in 10 or 20 years after they've put a few million miles of real-world testing under their collective belt, I'll consider it. But even then I'll be aware that I'm taking a calculated risk, just as I am whenever I do the driving myself.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  8. Duh by rolfwind · · Score: 1

    Duh, I meant to say I don't feel comfortable letting a car drive me. Yes, I'm up to late as it is.

  9. VW Raises the Bar by Zane+Hopkins · · Score: 2, Funny

    So how long until the car drives you home if you've hit the bar too hard ?

    No more soft drinks for the "designated driver".

    1. Re:VW Raises the Bar by ExKoopaTroopa · · Score: 1

      No more soft drinks for the "designated driver".

      woohoo !

      --
      Don't Tell Me What I Can't Do!
  10. Just for race tracks by froh42 · · Score: 5, Informative

    I have just read about 53+1 the other day (can't rembember where, tough) 53+1 is specialized on slalom courses and can navigate them faster than a human driver. The car first runs the course very slowly scanning it, then it has to pause for half an hour when a special software optimizes steering, braking and acceleration points and afterwards it goes around the course faster than a real driver could. The system is NOT flexible, for example when a human suddenly is on the track on the fast lap it will blissfully ignore the humans existance and accelerate right through the human and create quite a mess. The usage seems to be exactly repeatable driving for car or tyre development. Froh

    1. Re:Just for race tracks by Tony+Hoyle · · Score: 4, Funny

      ssh... you're dangerously close to adding facts to this discussion. Stop it! This is slashdot!

    2. Re:Just for race tracks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually that's exactly what the 53+1 is all about: racing the same racetrack again and again and again.
      The purpose of the 53+1 is not autonomous driving. The goal was to create a platform for testing new parts
      (new tires, brakes, etc.). In order to truly compare the performance of those parts you need a system that
      can drive the same course over and over in the most efficient way.

      The goal is not autonomous driving but obtaining reproduceable results on testing tracks.
      (There's a german article that explains this at http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/0,1518,424288,0 0.html)

      Oh well, posting as anonymous coward probably means that nobody will read this anyway.

    3. Re:Just for race tracks by siriuskase · · Score: 1

      Driving is so much easier when you own the road, as VW probably does. That is very disappointing additional information. This vehicle wouldn't even do well on a race course with other drivers. It would be the ultimate selfish road hog. Actually, I have met drivers like that, who expect the rest of us to look out for them while they do as they please, but you can't have 2 drivers/autodrive-cars on the same road at the same time.

      So this car is of use to people who have a private road and make the same trip repeatedly as in conducting road tests.

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  11. I can't believe it's not been done yet .... by Gorshkov · · Score: 1, Funny

    In Soviet Russia, the car drives you

    1. Re:I can't believe it's not been done yet .... by Ardeocalidus · · Score: 2, Funny

      No, in Soviet Russia, You drive the car. This article proves that!

    2. Re:I can't believe it's not been done yet .... by Gorshkov · · Score: 1

      D'oh!

  12. Details are little more than sketchy, but... by OpenSourced · · Score: 1

    It seems like the GPS cones positions are stored in some database, and then the Golf will drive itself by comparing its position with the positions of the cones. That's nice of course, but hardly a big breakthrough. Still far away from real-life driving, and little to do with CMU, where the driving is more or less real.

    --
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  13. In case anyone is still stuck.... by reset_button · · Score: 5, Funny
    53 plus 1
    ...the answer is 54.
    1. Re:In case anyone is still stuck.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      please post your source code!!

    2. Re:In case anyone is still stuck.... by WilliamSChips · · Score: 1

      Base 13.

      --
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    3. Re:In case anyone is still stuck.... by noidentity · · Score: 1

      Just think, some day we'll have self-calculating machines that do things like "53 plus 1" for us!

    4. Re:In case anyone is still stuck.... by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Car 54? where are you?

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  14. Speed limit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How does it find out the speed limit?

    1. Re:Speed limit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Road Signs? Maps?

  15. drivers wanted by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    i guess they never found any of those drivers they wanted and had to create digital drivers?

  16. Grass panic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Reminds me of many of my neighbors here in what was once called the "the meth triangle, methamphetamine manufacturing and trafficing capital of the world". You could always tell when the speed freaks were out of grass, they would be peeking out their windows and doors constantly.

  17. Driverless cars by XNormal · · Score: 1

    For more information about the challenges in achieving a true driversless car check this Wikipedia Article

    --
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  18. Reminds me of a William Gibson novel... by JensR · · Score: 1

    One of the voodoo priests in Count Zero (http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/000648042X/202 -3748552-0791032?v=glance&n=266239) has a Mercedes limousine that drives itself.

  19. So... What problem does it solve? by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    Even if it works. Well, it reduces driver boredom and allows them to do something else. That's it. It might in the long distant future also reduce accident rates. However it doesn't solve any of the other problems associated with car usage; expense, pollution and congestion.

    You're going to be spending just as much money on the vehicle, using just as much energy, producing just as much pollution and spending just as much time stuck in traffic.

    While automated driving is cool and interesting, it's not revolutionary, it doesn't solve any of the big problems caused by car usage we have today. It's worth noting that it's not possible for any of the existing public transport technologies to solve the problems caused by car usage either.

    http://www.vectusprt.com/
    http://www.atsltd.co.uk/
    http://www.skywebexpress.com/
    http://www.mist-er.com/index-en.htm

    --
    Deleted
    1. Re:So... What problem does it solve? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, the AI is still not ready to take on aggresive drivers on the road; give it a few more decades.

      And I agree: this whole self-driving tech for cars is rather useless if you end up being stuck in a jam. What we need are more dedicated bus lanes, express busses, and faster subway/metro.

    2. Re:So... What problem does it solve? by hyc · · Score: 1

      Well, if all cars on the road were automated, it's very likely that you could prevent jams from occurring in the first place. Most of the slowdowns I've observed tend to be caused by inattentive drivers, remove them from the equation and traffic flow will be smooth all the time.

      I enjoy being in control of my car too, but I think I'd be willing to give it up when I got onto a freeway if I knew all the vehicles around me would be driving consistently and intelligently. Just as long as I can still switch over to full manual for weekend outings at the track.

      --
      -- *My* journal is more interesting than *yours*...
  20. Nice, but not enough. by nbannerman · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Travelling at 150mph on a circuit is easy. Well, relatively anyways.

    Now if they managed to get this car travelling at 20mph down a city street during rush hour, we'd really have something useful on our hands.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm impressed. But a self-driving car on an empty track is a million miles away from the everyday driving conditions we encounter.

    1. Re:Nice, but not enough. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Simple solution, dont mix autonomous systems with non autonomous systems. Go all out and have all vehciles fitted or none at all. Its the only way to be sure because if we get to a stage where the computer can take on human drivers we are in deep shit anyway :) Anyway what is wrong with banning all vehicles in a city zone and having PUBLIC transport ONLY. It will make it a nicer place, less stressful, cleaner and easier to get around, just allow pedestrians, bikes and public transports. Force it by huge charges in the city zone and use that to fund better public systems and then eventually block private vehicles from those zones and then expand them.

    2. Re:Nice, but not enough. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But a self-driving car on an empty track is a million miles away from the everyday driving conditions we encounter.

      I'm sure it's not *that* far off. I mean, Germany is only 5,500 miles from me, and I encounter everyday driving conditions almost, well... every day. A million miles is way too large of an estimate, no matter where on earth you live.

      icblf

  21. hmmm by MerrickStar · · Score: 3, Funny

    Does this mean we won't be seeing the "Drivers wanted" slogan anymore?
    This would imply to me that the position has been filled.

  22. VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by mikelieman · · Score: 1

    As a Passat Owner and Driver since 1999 and the wife has a Jetta from 1998, let me comment on the reliability and build quality of VW products.

    They suck.

    That said, these jokers can't even design an ABS controller that lasts 5 years. How the hell do they think that they're QUALIFIED to design a life critical componant like this?

    --
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  23. Wikipedia is not reliable by mangu · · Score: 5, Informative
    GPS accuracy can be improved further, to about 1 cm (half an inch)


    I can claim to be a "rocket scientist", at least I have designed systems for satellite control and tracking, and I work for an aerospace company.


    You cannot measure a position to within less than a centimeter using GPS. You can design a ranging system that gives you a measurement with enough numbers to represent that precision, but it doesn't mean that you can trust such numbers.


    You cannot use GPS to give you better measurements than the accuracy of the GPS constellation orbit determination, and the satellites' positions vary more or less randomly due to residual atmosphere, solar wind, and solar radiation pressure. The end result is that GPS cannot give any reliable measurement to less than 10 cm, and one meter is closer to the best that one can accomplish in practical situations.


    A more accurate system than GPS is LAGEOS, which has satellites that are much heavier and smaller than the GPS satellites. They are basically brass balls covered with mirrors. Because of that higher density, LAGEOS satellites suffer less perturbation from non-gravitational solar and atmospheric effects. However, the equipment for doing ranging with LAGEOS satellites is not portable, it's meant for geodesy studies, not navigation.


    A good overview of different satellite ranging systems can be found in "Satellite Orbits", by O. Montenbruck and E. Gill, ISBN 3-540-67280-X, and here is a Wikipedia link for the most accurate satellite ranging systems.

    1. Re:Wikipedia is not reliable by Yokaze · · Score: 3, Interesting
      You cannot use GPS to give you better measurements than the accuracy of the GPS constellation orbit determination, and the satellites' positions vary more or less randomly due to residual atmosphere, solar wind, and solar radiation pressure.

      I don't think, that the satellite positions vary randomly in the sense, that they have gaussian variance in a deliberatly short intervall of time. But their positions contain a systematic error, which can be determined via a fixed known position (actually more, but who cares) and thereby be corrected. This, in general, is the principle behind DGPS. The accuracy does not depend as much on the position of the satelites, but the discrepancy between the systematic error between the fixed known position and the unknown one.

      That said, I'm still sceptical concerning the quoted accuracy. Especially for a moving object, like a car.
      --
      "Between strong and weak, between rich and poor [...], it is freedom which oppresses and the law which sets free"
    2. Re:Wikipedia is not reliable by Fordiman · · Score: 1

      What if you use two GPS readouts, mounted on the front and back of the car. They are a known position apart, and can give the system an idea of just how inaccurate the GPS is at any given instant. Couple that with the third fixed GPS, and I don't see how you couldn't get at least to-the-inch accuracy, even if the satellite margin of error is about 4".

      I mean, considering we get accurate measurements of things like atoms, that's a much bigger difference in scale.

      --
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    3. Re:Wikipedia is not reliable by emj · · Score: 1

      You are wrong, you won't get extra precision by mounting more cheap GPS:es. You need to be in the same spot for a very long time (couple of hours), monitoring the analog radio data, and have access to DGPS data.

    4. Re:Wikipedia is not reliable by mangu · · Score: 1
      I don't think, that the satellite positions vary randomly in the sense, that they have gaussian variance in a deliberatly short intervall of time. But their positions contain a systematic error, which can be determined via a fixed known position


      You are right, the satellite positions don't change randomly in a short interval of time, but their position *measurements* from Earth are noisy, and therefore vary randomly from one measurement to the other. Their orbits aren't known with absolute precision, because of the effects I mentioned, and must be determined from range measurements.


      GPS position determination is done by "pseudo-ranging", that is measuring the differences in the distance from the observer to each of a subset of the satellites. If there existed any trick to eliminate the errors in these measurements, they would use the same tricks to improve the orbit estimation. Therefore, one can safely assume that the most precise method for determining a position using GPS will not be better than the most precise method using for estimating the orbits.

    5. Re:Wikipedia is not reliable by Yokaze · · Score: 1
      but their position *measurements* from Earth are noisy, and therefore vary randomly from one measurement to the other.
      Real pure gaussian noise can be arbitrarily reduced by averaging/filtering. The noise only determines the convergence speed for getting an sufficient accurate result. The limiting factor for accuracy for a fixed object, however, is the systematic error.
      If there existed any trick to eliminate the errors in these measurements, they would use the same tricks to improve the orbit estimation.
      The same trick could be used, provided you can find a satellite with known coordinates in space within a couple of kilometres of the object in question. This, however, seems to me quite complicated in space for the reasons you cited. And probably, deteriorates the accuracy from a signal orignating from a ground based station too much to be of worth for determining a satellite's position. Otherwise, why would one need ground based stations anyway?
      --
      "Between strong and weak, between rich and poor [...], it is freedom which oppresses and the law which sets free"
    6. Re:Wikipedia is not reliable by guruevi · · Score: 1

      Well, next to that, in Europe there is another system (GALILEO) that does the exact same thing as GPS but isn't controlled by American's, if I'm correct, the russians also have their stuff. So if you use GPS (which is downgraded for military reasons) with the hi-res GALILEO (which has a civilian resolution the same as the American Military GPS sattelite streams) and DGPS, your positioning by the sensors (developed by Philips long time ago) on the wheels to locate yourself and the European radio beacons for positioning (used by police and ambulance) you get a pretty accurate system where one system can fail. The GPS system these days can (with a good mapping system) also give a warning long before a tunnel is reached so the user can start driving manually and there might be a system installed in a tunnel to give guidance.

      I wouldn't like my car automatic, I like to break the speed limits (by 2 or 3 times) and do some pretty insane tricks on the road (in a safe and controlled way) and I just love to drive and have control of the car.

      --
      Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
    7. Re:Wikipedia is not reliable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "brass balls covered with mirrors"

      Only the most egotistical, vain person on Earth could have ever concieved of such a thing.

  24. Self-driving? How about quality and reliability? by zerofoo · · Score: 1

    Self-driving is nice, but how about the basics like:

    Fixing glove box doors that break at the hinge constantly.

    Making window regulator clamps out of metal instead of plastic so the window doesn't fall into the door.

    Using MAF sensors that last longer than 30,000 miles.

    Using O2 sensors that last longer than the previously mentioned MAF sensors.

    Engineering sunvisors with built-in lights that stay working (wires too short so they break in the headliner).

    Assembling 2.0L engines so they don't use 3 quarts of oil every 3,000 miles.

    Re-engineering a 1.8t turbo overboost valve out of metal so it lasts as long as the turbo.

    Re-engineering combi-valves so they also last as long as the turbo.

    Making all oil pans out of steel so oil change technicians don't strip the pan threads after 10 oil changes.

    Making interior rubber coated plastic parts that don't peel after 2 years.

    Making brake light switches right on the first try - not the 4th or 5th revision.

    Let's get the basics of autos right first before we make them drive themselves....

    -ted

  25. But it's FUN to drive! by Albert+Sandberg · · Score: 1

    The forget that fact.. ok, want me to state an example? You're going to a party, you and your girlfriend (let's just imagine this can happen for a while) are driving there. Will there be an argument over who gets to sit in the passenger seat? ... no thanks :)

    1. Re:But it's FUN to drive! by vertinox · · Score: 1

      The forget that fact.. ok, want me to state an example? You're going to a party, you and your girlfriend (let's just imagine this can happen for a while) are driving there. Will there be an argument over who gets to sit in the passenger seat? ... no thanks :)

      My suggestion is to let her win whatever argument she wants to have and then you can be both in the back seat on the drive home from the alcohol induced party and let the car drive.

      Oh wait a minute this is slashdot... Well as long as you have a DVD player in the back seat and some kleenex and lotion you should be fine.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
  26. And yet only about 10% use public transport by Colin+Smith · · Score: 0
    "And I agree: this whole self-driving tech for cars is rather useless if you end up being stuck in a jam. What we need are more dedicated bus lanes, express busses, and faster subway/metro."


    So... Could we actually replace the car with any of the existing public transport offerings? Is it physically possible for the existing public transport system to accomodate a 900% increase in usage? 500% increase? How about even a 100% increase? Nope. We're basically wasting our time and money attempting to get people on to the existing public transport systems. Never mind that they don't go where people want to go, when they want to go there.

    --
    Deleted
    1. Re:And yet only about 10% use public transport by Osty · · Score: 0

      So... Could we actually replace the car with any of the existing public transport offerings? Is it physically possible for the existing public transport system to accomodate a 900% increase in usage? 500% increase? How about even a 100% increase? Nope. We're basically wasting our time and money attempting to get people on to the existing public transport systems. Never mind that they don't go where people want to go, when they want to go there.

      It's not even just the increase in usage. People don't use public transportation because it's not convenient. Until I can walk outside of my house and immediately jump on a train or bus that will take me exactly where I want to go without any lengthy stops or detours in between, I will not use public transportation. Since that's a completely unrealistic expectation of public transporation, I think it's safe to say that I will never use it as my main mode of movement. Why is that unrealistic? Because 90% (made up high percentage) of the population of the US lives in relatively sparse conditions, not the urban density of something like NYC.

      I live in a fairly dense suburban area, compared to where I grew up (on a farm, with the nearest neighbor being half a mile away), but it's still not dense enough to support the level of mass transit necessary to get people to give up their cars. For example, if I wanted to try taking the bus to and from work, I'd have to get on the 8:30am bus in order to be at work by 10:00am (for comparison, I usually leave my house around 9:45am by car and arrive at work by 10:00am). Then, to be able to get home, I'd have to get on the 6:30pm bus because no later bus routes go anywhere near my house. And even then, I wouldn't get home until 8:30pm on that route (again for comparison, I usually will work until 7:30 or 8:00, and arrive home by 7:50 or 8:20, depending on when I left work). Thus, for me, using mass transit ends up as a huge waste of time. That time is more valuable than what I would save in gas or wear and tear on my car.

      As for self-driving cars: You'll get my manually-driven car when you pry it out of my cold, dead hands. It's a neat idea for the car to drive itself, but there's no way in hell I'm giving up my ability to drive. Similarly, there's no way in hell I'm giving up my standard transmission. I don't care if dual-clutch sequential manuals are better, or slushbox automatics are progressing, or whatever else -- If I can't sling around the stick, I'm not driving it.

    2. Re:And yet only about 10% use public transport by Jeremi · · Score: 1
      Until I can walk outside of my house and immediately jump on a train or bus that will take me exactly where I want to go without any lengthy stops or detours in between, I will not use public transportation.


      You forgot to add "as long as I can drive my car instead". If (for whatever reason) driving a private vehicle becomes impossible or impractical, you'll end up either taking public transit, biking, walking, or staying home.


      Convenience is all relative.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    3. Re:And yet only about 10% use public transport by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1
      "Until I can walk outside of my house and immediately jump on a train or bus that will take me exactly where I want to go without any lengthy stops or detours in between, I will not use public transportation. Since that's a completely unrealistic expectation of public transporation,"


      That is exactly what PRT is designed to do. It's not an unrealistic expectation at all. Infact it's the cheapest, most efficient form of public transport.

      http://www.personalrapidtransit.com/

      --
      Deleted
    4. Re:And yet only about 10% use public transport by Osty · · Score: 1

      That is exactly what PRT is designed to do. It's not an unrealistic expectation at all. Infact it's the cheapest, most efficient form of public transport. http://www.personalrapidtransit.com/

      You know, as soon a that website did its shitty, "I'm going to resize your browser without your permission so that it looks like it's maximized but it's really not," thing, I gave up caring. PRT may be the world's transportation savior, but I'm never going to know because I'll never go back to that website. Way to go, shithead web designers!

  27. Re:VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ooh, ooh, anecdotal generalization. I can do that, too.

    I drive a 1998 Golf TDI with 267000km on the clock. Number of problems: zero. The only thing the car ever needed, besides diesel of course, was spark plugs, filters, oils, fluids, brake pads, rotors, cam chain, washers, shocks & springs, and tyres. In other words, the normal items supposed to be replaced according to the shop manual.

    My younger brother drives a 1996 Polo (petrol engine) with over 315000km on the clock now (he's the third owner). He's been driving it since January 2004. Number of problems: zero. Fill up the tank, change the oil regularly, and it goes without complaining.

    My girlfriend drives a 2003 New Beetle. It is nearing 100000km now. Only problems so far was a punctured radiator (hardly VW's fault) and a loose electrical connection that made the dashes light flicker from time to time.

    My friend's father drives a 2005 Phaeton V10 TDI. No problem whatsoever, so far. Unlike his previous 5-series BMW with its fucked up electronics that kept thinking there was someone on the passengers seat if you happend to put a coat or a briefcase there (and thus making the seat almost have a life of its own, trying endlessly to adjust to an imaginary passenger); or the E-class Mercedes he had that broke the turbo twice due to oil starvation, or the stupid electronic brakes that had all sorts of problems.

    So, you see, anecdotal evidence means exactly squat. Over here where I live I see thousands of VW's every day, including loads of 30-year-old Golf mk I, 20-year-old Polos and Passats chugging along just fine.

  28. Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by tugrul · · Score: 4, Informative
    You cannot use GPS to give you better measurements than the accuracy of the GPS constellation orbit determination

    Yes, you can. I just woke up, but I'll see if I can explain.

    In the case of DGPS, the reference station uses its surveyed coordinate to difference the time encoded in the signals it is receiving against the time it would expect given an estimation of where the satellite is. So any error in the satellite's predicted position is lumped in with all the other naturally occuring forms of error.

    In the case of RTK, or other forms of relative carrier phase positioning, the system attempts to determine and track the difference in the number of cycles of the carrier wave of the GPS signal between the base and the satellite and the rover and the satellite. This number multiplied by the length of the carrier wave, 19cm for L1 signals, gives you the length of one side of a triangle between the base station, the rover, and the point between the rover and satellite that is as far from the satellite as the base station is. So, the exact position of the satellite is not as important as the sight line vector the satellite forms against the base line between the base station and rover. And given the great distance of the satellite from the typical base station and rover, jitter in the satellite's position doesn't change that vector much.

    In conclusion, given the advances in relative positioning, limiting factors on GPS positioning today are the accuracy of the survey points, the ability of the electronics to precisely measure the carrier phase/doppler of the GPS signal, the quality of the clock in the GPS unit and the speed/accuracy of the algorithms that determine the carrier cycle count difference.

    1. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by mangu · · Score: 1
      So any error in the satellite's predicted position is lumped in with all the other naturally occurring forms of error.


      Right, and do you know what is the order of magnitude of those naturally occurring forms of error? Let's see: ionospheric refraction, considering scintillation activity is in the order of 1.5 meters. Tropospheric refraction is about 2.2 meters. Code multipath is 1.5 meters. Adding these we have an RMS error of 3 meters, even ignoring other factors, like antenna gain and receiver noise temperature.


      Differential GPS was created originally to eliminate "selective availability", SA for short, which consisted of a random jitter intentionally introduced into the broadcast satellite orbit elements to make it useless to foreign military powers. SA has been abandoned because DGPS made it obsolete. Its intentional error was between 30 and 100 meters, one order of magnitude above the natural errors I mentioned above.


      As I told you, I design satellite tracking and control systems for a living. Engineering is done with numbers, which is something that's often lacking in press releases. GPS is intrinsically useless for keeping a car in the correct lane in a highway, the best it can do is keep the car in a city neighborhood.
       

    2. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by Physics+Dude · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Right, and do you know what is the order of magnitude of those naturally occurring forms of error? Let's see: ionospheric refraction, considering scintillation activity is in the order of 1.5 meters. Tropospheric refraction is about 2.2 meters. Code multipath is 1.5 meters. Adding these we have an RMS error of 3 meters, even ignoring other factors, like antenna gain and receiver noise temperature.

      And your point is? These types of errors you list (including satelite path deviations) are presisely what DGPS corrects for if the well known GPS is in relatively close proximity to the onboard GPS. In that case, these unknown variabilities will be reasonably well correlated so they will be removed when taking the differential. (ie. satelite orbit changes, ionospheric refraction etc., though unpredictable, will be nearly exaxtly the same for both GPSs so it gets subtracted out). In my work we generally get DGPS accuracies of less than half a meter which is well below your quoted error of 3 meters RMS.

      For use with autonomous vehicles, one can generally do a lot better when the DGPS is augmented with a ground based equivalent of GPS like Terralites (XPS) which can and do routinely give accurate positions in the 1cm range.

    3. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by daniel422 · · Score: 3, Informative

      I'd have to agree with you here. We used DGPS years ago with UC Riverside experiments in autonomous vehicles at their CE-CERT facility. I was amazed with how accurate ground based differential GPS systems could get. We'd have an antenna on top of our research facility and a unit in the car. Accuracy in controlling the car was better than half a meter -- and this was about 8 years ago now. Of course, these were pretty low speed tests at the time, but still pretty impressive.
      Civilian ground based DGPS systems seem to be quite accurate in short range experiments (less than a mile from the transmitter site). I couldn't comment on rockets....

    4. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by mangu · · Score: 1
      these unknown variabilities will be reasonably well correlated so they will be removed when taking the differential


      No. DGPS can have an effect in eliminating some systematic errors, but that's all. It has no effect at all in improving random errors caused by noise in the system, like ionospheric scintillation. Scintillation is interesting because NASA uses GPS to measure scintillation. That is, they have a DGPS-like network of stations, and the errors in the measurements from those stations are used to determine the extent of scintillation. But those are random errors, they cannot be subtracted away.


      Errors caused by noise vary from one measurement to the next in the same receiver, the only way to eliminate them is by doing several measurements. Want to reduce a random error by half? Measure four times and take the average. Not exactly practical for a moving vehicle.


      For multipath errors, the best way to eliminate them is using multiple antennas, separated by several wavelengths. Works in a ship, but not so practical for a car either. And multipath is also a problem for the reference station in a DGPS system, because the satellites are moving with respect to the station and the satellite-to-station geometry keeps changing. Even if they did all the calculations needed to estimate the effects of the varying orbital geometry, how could their system account for the local variations, for instance the signal reflected by that 18-wheeler going down the street?

    5. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by theoddbot · · Score: 1

      Indeed. With RTK GPS systems, we routinely achieve 1cm repeatability. The key is to use a reference station and L1/L2 GPS receivers. The electronics is quite a bit more expensive than your bog standard consumer GPS gear, but it's definitely doable.

    6. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by swillden · · Score: 1

      With RTK GPS systems, we routinely achieve 1cm repeatability.

      On a moving vehicle?

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    7. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by tugrul · · Score: 1

      On a moving vehicle?

      Yes.

      Think about how quickly the satellites are moving even when you are sitting still. Even then, you are only sitting still with respect to the surface of the planet, not with respect to the orbit of the satellites.

      One neat side effect of measuring the doppler effect on the GPS signals, which is simply counting the carrier cycles and comparing it against the expected frequency, is that you are essentially keeping track of the relative range between you and the satellite. So once you figure out the ambiguity that locks in your position relative to the base station at one point in time, you don't need to figure them out again until you lose count of the cycles. Any changes since that time are reflected in the accumulated doppler. It's brilliant :)

    8. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by swillden · · Score: 1

      So once you figure out the ambiguity that locks in your position relative to the base station at one point in time

      Interesting. Do you need to be stationary for a period of time to calibrate your initial position?

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    9. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by tugrul · · Score: 1

      Interesting. Do you need to be stationary for a period of time to calibrate your initial position?

      Nope

      As I was explaining in the previous post, accumulated doppler documents the relative motion of the satellites and you. Given esimates of the satellite position, and the observations at the base station, keeping track of your position is not that difficult if you keep count of the carrier cycles. The difficult part is figuring out that initial base line between you and the base station, and people smarter than me have managed to do a decent job of it, even recovering rather quickly after a loss of count like an overpass. Combine that with an inertial system, and the performance is amazing considering that the system doesn't use anything in its immediate environment to back track its motion (ie, triangulating off of local land marks). Not practical for everybody yet, but the time will come.

    10. Re:Comments on Slashdot aren't reliable either... by tugrul · · Score: 1

      It has no effect at all in improving random errors caused by noise in the system, like ionospheric scintillation.

      I honestly don't know how they compensate for all of the sources of error, but these systems are quite fancy. As far as scintillation goes, the severity of the effects seem localized to the segments of the ionosphere between you and each satellite. Given that you typically have more satellites available than you need for a proper fix, there is some room to monitor the health of each signal.

      Multipath is a tough nut too, but the technology is there to limit the antenna's susceptibility to it, and to recognize when it is happening.

      None of this is perfect, but it is pretty good, and with external aids like inertial systems, its not the neighborhood positioning system you seem to believe that it is.

  29. 1 inch GPS by thogard · · Score: 4, Informative

    As far as I know that requires a DPGS like system on the track with extra real time feedback to the car.
    So they are cheating if you consider the real world.

    I've been in a car that could drive its self on one very well surveyed road. If it got confused it would beep and assume the human was in control within a second. The internal guidance system alone cost over 1/3 of a million dollars and it used several different GPS systems to cross check the fiber gyro.

    The only way cars are going to take over for driving the mini-van in place of the drive soccer mom is if there is a serious attempt to clean up the road markings. This means no more optional parking on the side as a road will either be a parking spot or a lane. Signs will need to be redone and cleaned up. The white lines must be far more precise than they are now and more places will need to deal with the yellow centerline (which has now been dropped in the EU even though its the cheapest road safety device ever)

    Things have gone a long way. 2 decades ago I had a system that would indicate that a steering adjustment needed to be done. A decade ago there was Miata convertible that could maintain road position and deal with deer. This year we have a VW that can avoid traffic cones. Maybe in a decade we can see a car that can avoid the phone talking, breakfast eating SUV driver.

  30. Re:Self-driving? How about quality and reliability by Zaatxe · · Score: 1

    The answer for those is "public tranport system". And you don't have to drive either!
    Go ahead, mod me troll...

    --
    So say we all
  31. Re:Self-driving? How about quality and reliability by rapidweather · · Score: 1

    I have a 1970 VW Bug, and it has 370K miles on the body running gear and transmission. The engine has about 120K on it, some parts reused from the original, such as the carburator and manifold. Builder got a big laugh when he put the motor together, used the big barrels and pistons, engine puts out more power than stock, they didn't tell me. Car pulls away from stoplight with suprising vigor, much to the suprise of those behind that were plotting their sweeping pass only to be denied.
    It does need a clutch, this one has about 180K on it, and is coming apart.
    Shifting takes a lot of practice/patience. Did put a new shift coupling back there, that helps a lot.
    There are no solid-state parts in the car, the turn signal relay has been replaced with a can-type, cheap and reliable. The radio is not OEM, does have transistors, but is probably worth all of 25 cents if the buyer is really needing a cheap radio. The turn signal lever wore out, too expensive to replace, so put a paddle switch on the dash for the turn signal setup.
    Gas guage quit, not the one in the tank, the one in the speedometer. Having fixed that, just keep a log of when tank is filled, and every 100 miles, refill. Seats are wore out, windshield wipers also.
    Ignition switch replaced with a custom setup, hidden "on" switch, and a starter button on the dash. Horn uses a relay, so it always works.
    Has a new spare tire, change a flat in 10 minutes.
    Drivers door sags, hold it up to close smoothly.
    No car payments for past 30 years. Can get 49.5 MPG at 55 MPH.
    Cops won't stop you, too embarrassed to be seen giving a ticket to something like that. Will pick off tailgaters from behind, and write them tickets.
    Front windshield gasket leaks top center, carry a bucket during monsoons.
    Car was painted with a brush several years ago, looks horrible.
    Tires wear evenly all around, can get 8 years between tire changes, they dry-rot first before tread is gone.
    The battery is a left over truck battery, holder modified to accept. Buy a new one for the truck, put the old one in the Bug. Keep a spare battery around, and carry jumper cables. Seems everyone else needs jumping off, not this one.
    Has a home-built "lights on reminder", not solid state, secret design, I'm not telling. The device is 25 years old, and shows no sign of failing.
    Most wiring has been changed and updated, everything has it's own circuit and fuse, OEM was crap.
    Lots of people want to buy the car, I say "you cannot afford it". They just imagine it will solve all their problems.

  32. Raising The Bar... by consumer_whore · · Score: 2, Funny
    "VW has produced a prototype Golf ... that successfully steers and accelerates itself at speeds up to 150 MPH...
    The're going to need to raise the bar a lot more if it doesn't brake yet!
  33. Speeding tickets by davidc · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This is surely the perfect car. I can just imagine the scene:

    Car pulled over by the highway patrol for doing 150 in a 65 zone.
    Officer is puzzled by the fact that the only person in the car is asleep, in the back seat.
    "Did you know what speed you were doing, sir?"
    "Huh, um, wha? Oh - the car was driving, Officer".

    Car has to appear in court next Wednesday.

  34. Re:VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And in homage to the founder:

    Hail Hitler

  35. You call that a translation? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1
    Maybe reboot and try again?

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    1. Re:You call that a translation? by Millenniumman · · Score: 3, Funny

      Well, when I saw that the German -> English translation was almost readable, I decided to run it through English -> Arabic/Chinese/Jananese/Russian/Italian/French -> English.

      --
      Stupidity is like nuclear power, it can be used for good or evil. And you don't want to get any on you.
    2. Re:You call that a translation? by maximthemagnificent · · Score: 1

      How exactly can stupidity be ujsed for good? I've never noticed adding a dose of stupidity helps any situation whatever,
      unless your goal is to manipulate the stupid people. That doesn't scream "good" to me, personally.

    3. Re:You call that a translation? by Millenniumman · · Score: 1

      That comes from a Dilbert comic. In it, the boss asks Dilbert and Wally to do something ridiculous, but they say yes anyway because they know he will never know if they did it or not.

      --
      Stupidity is like nuclear power, it can be used for good or evil. And you don't want to get any on you.
  36. It seems like you've had a bad experience by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1
    Or 5.

    Just one question - you know an awful lot about specific VW problems. Do you keep buying new VW's so you can find out more? Is there some other, darker problem you'd like to discuss?

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    1. Re:It seems like you've had a bad experience by cr0sh · · Score: 1

      I was wondering about this, too. With that many problems, I will be sure to steer clear of newer VW products, I think. My current daily driver is a 1994 Ford Ranger XLT 4-banger, with 150,000+ miles on it. I have yet to replace the MAF sensor or the O2 sensors (still pass with flying colors at inspection), and I certainly don't burn anywhere near as much oil. One of the other things I like about my lil' pickup is that the oil filter (Motorcraft F1-A) is the same filter as the one on my 1979 Bronco (which will NEVER be a daily driver, given the amount of gas the V8 in it uses!) - makes thinking about oil changes on both an easy issue.

      --
      Reason is the Path to God - Anon
  37. Again, by TheSkepticalOptimist · · Score: 1

    I have to state you can either have a completely automated system, or a completely human driven system, the two will not mix. And even then, this technology is too expensive to implement.

    I don't understand why car companies are wasting time and money in developing self driven cars. While there might be useful purposes for the technology, such as "off-world" exploration, or for use in the military, there will never come a time when we turn over control of our cars to a computer and sit back and enjoy the ride.

    There are too many variables involved in a self-driven cars, things that a computer cannot take into consideration, such as the often random and stupid nature of how people drive. In a mixed environment, where human and computer driven cars are allowed, it will be a huge disaster waiting to happen. The first time some idiot swerves across 4 lanes of busy traffic because they don't want to miss their exit (because they were not paying attention in the first place) and causes a massive car pileup because all the computer driven cars could not react fast enough to the sudden chaotic input will essentially pull the plug on the whole idea. Companies like VW and Honda working on automated cars will be named in a massive class action lawsuit that will effectively bankrupt these companies (good riddance, both companies are overly hyped about anyways).

    Even in an environment of purely computer driven vehicles, where you have a safe enough (and powerful enough) computers controlling all the cars, robust and secure wireless networks, along with radar and all the sensors needed so that every car knows about the existence of every other car on the road in a 10 km radius, there is still a level of uncertainty and chaos that computers will not be able to handle. A sudden rainstorm or white out, while may not affect the navigation of the vehicle, may cause the computer to react poorly in a sudden stop situation when it hasn't gauged the slipperiness of the road. Driving down a dark highway at night, human eyes may pick up the deer standing still on the side of the road, and slow down accordingly assuming the deer might dart across the road suddenly, but a computer will not register the fact that there is wildlife near the road, and will not react quick enough when the deer darts pass, regardless of how good the avoidance detection and mechanics are. There is no computerized counterpart for human intuition and experience.

    In the end, you will have to build a roadway underground, where you can almost guarantee no inadvertent input of chaos into the computer controlled environment. If you take weather and wildlife out of the equation, and can guarantee a pretty much predictable environment, then I would agree that computer driven cars makes sense. But it would cost trillions of dollars to upgrade the highway and transit systems to implement this kind of system for computerized car control, and I would move that it would be criminal to allow a human driver in this environment, enough for jail time and a life long suspension of your license. Movies like iRobot where Will Smith takes manual command of his car while driving down an automated tunnel is pure fiction, and it will remain that way.

    In the end, this is a pipe dream and I am afraid that every dollar wasted on this technology could be put into making cars more fuel efficient, ecologically friendly, or research in alternate fuels or power technologies. They can also be made safer, or at least, implement computer assistance that could effectively prevent the car from spinning out of control if the human driver isn't skilled enough to handle the situation.

    I don't think I am alone in assuming that this technology will never see the light of day in a real world application. The real world is too unpredictable and chaotic to turn over to a computer to drive around in. If they invent anti-grav engines and force fields, then maybe I would turn over my vehicle to a computer, but they don't even let the computer drive a spaceship 40

    --
    I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
    1. Re:Again, by Korin43 · · Score: 1

      I'm too lazy to read your entire comment, but I noticed you were complaining about mixed environments. What if there were special roads for people with these cars? "Toll road: Computer driven cars only" I could see people driving normally on normal roads, then switching over to automatic on roads designed for it.

    2. Re:Again, by donaldm · · Score: 1

      Well we do have deer in Australia but they are not normally in the wild (mainly in farms) but we do have kangaroo and it is not much fun when when a large roo jumps out from the the bush during the night or even the day and there is no way a human or even a computer controlled car can avoid hitting it. The strangest thing is the roo is liable to survive (well initially) the impact unless you are driving a truck.

      --
      There ain't no such thing as proprietary standards only proprietary formats. Standards are by definition open.
    3. Re:Again, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > I have to state you can either have a completely automated system, or a completely human driven system, the two will not mix.

      Sorry, mate. This is flat-out wrong. Anti-lock braking, tranction control and active ride systems are now available on family saloons. The majority of drivers who obtained their licenses after 1990 would find driving cars without these systems almost impossible in challenging conditions. Hop into a 1978 Ford Mustang and take it for a spin in the wet, if you don't believe me.

  38. Re:VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by x2A · · Score: 1

    "How the hell do they think that they're QUALIFIED to design a life critical componant like this?"

    How is calculating the fastest route round a cone layed out track "life critical"?

    --
    The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
  39. It solves a lot of problems, actually by Old+Man+Kensey · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Actually, you're wrong. Computer systems working properly (which is the big sticking point) can drive the car in a more efficient manner that will minimize wear. You know how teenagers love to gun it coming out of a light? Hello engine wear. Or aggressive drivers trying to jump forward into a spot that closes up so they have to slam on the brakes -- they're wasting gas, wearing out their brakes, wearing out engine parts... to say nothing of the time they go to panic-stop and suddenly nothing happens because a brake line sprung a leak from overuse.

    The holy grail is cars that talk to each other to get around more efficiently yet. If the traffic up ahead narrows from four lanes to two because of construction, and car computers can talk to each other and say "Hey, you're two miles back but get ready for this", then orderly traffic flow can be maintained as the cars merge into the remaining lanes and decelerate. This in turn saves gas, etc.

    Hell, think how much money you'd save if you car just automatically avoided potholes if it could. Tires, struts, shocks, suspension, all those would last much longer. Look at the figures on how much money it costs drivers annually in a city like Baltimore that's infested with chuckholed roads.

    --
    -- Old Man Kensey
  40. Re:Self-driving? How about quality and reliability by x2A · · Score: 1

    ...yeah, because AI programmers are really gonna quit their jobs and carreers to fix car window mechanisms.

    --
    The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
  41. Re:VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by mikelieman · · Score: 1


    "My girlfriend drives a 2003 New Beetle. It is nearing 100000km now. Only problems so far was a punctured radiator (hardly VW's fault) and a loose electrical connection that made the dashes light flicker from time to time."

    We had an intermittent FAILURE to start which ulitimately ( $500 labor, $10 wire ) was traced to a corroded wire/poor ground.

    Watch that flickering dash light problem. It'll likely get worse.

    --
    Technology -- No Place For Wimps! Grateful Dead and Jerry Garcia Chatroom -- http://www.wemissjerry.org
  42. Herbie was nuts by vixen337 · · Score: 1

    Have the people at VW not seen the movie at all? Herbie accelerated at the wrong times, didn't steer properly, would do all sorts of things that should have gotten his human passengers killed. Not my ideal driving machine. Pontiac is the one who needs to be developing self driving automobiles. A car like KITT is way better than Herbie. Too bad David Hasselhoff is busy almost killing himself shaving (or that good?).

  43. Raising the Bar to Drive by slowbad · · Score: 1

    You must be This__Tall to Golf -- Volkswagen's newest verb, replacing Farfegnugen.

  44. could someone please give stanford their due? by blackcoot · · Score: 1

    every time i see anything autonomous ground vehicle related, everyone goes off about how fantastic carnegie mellon university is while completely ignoring the fact that sebastian thrun's team at *STANFORD* won GC2. yes, i realize that thrun was red's student for a long time, but when you compare the radically different approaches it's pretty clear that it's thrun's vision, leadership, and team which earned the win. since vw was part of thrun's team, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor that any autonomous control of the 53+1 was largely a product of their collaboration with *STANFORD* and has pretty much bugger all to do with CMU.

    1. Re:could someone please give stanford their due? by matthewcraig · · Score: 1

      Their vehicle competed in an off-road contest with an undetermined route, also. This was an AI task much more complicated than driving on an established racetrack, at any speed. Someone hit "Zonk" and "Kensey" with a clue-stick.

  45. Trans-ams by jlebrech · · Score: 0

    The black trans-ams will also come with crime sensors.

  46. Re:Wiped is not reliable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You could claim to be Methuselah as well. Not claiming it doesn't change the fact that you are an aerospace engineer and not a "rocket scientist." What rockets have you worked on? a satellite isn't a rocket is it? Are you a satellite scientist or a rocket scientist?

    Mike
    (not a rocket scientist, but very few people are)

  47. You know, self-drive means "rented" to you and me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0



    You know, self-drive in England means "rented" to you and me. What, you don't watch The_Prisoner on sci-fi? His first day there, in the shop, looking for a map.

  48. Personally I hope they aren't using DGPS by OfNoAccount · · Score: 1

    According to the US Coast Guard NAVCEN site DGPS has:

    "availability of 99.7% per month"

    Now, assuming my math doesn't suck, that means that for 129 minutes a month it won't work... Those could be a very exciting few minutes!

  49. We could probably have self-driving cars today... by cr0sh · · Score: 1
    As as another poster pointed out, lack of roadway sign and marking standards are a big issue. Fix that, and it would go a long way to fixing the issue in general.


    However, we have all the technology to enable such a vehicle, especially if we limit it to highway travel (where conditions tend to be less variable than surface streets). One such improvement for guidance would be a combination of active and passive "dots" lining the lanes. The passive ones could be simple rare-earth magnets. The active ones would take a bit more work, but I can easily envision a small solar panel with an integrated RF/IR transponder - perhaps it could even communicate with other dots wirelessly to forward information toward on-coming traffic about road conditions and such. I am also thinking of a system like an ant-trail, where the communication could be forwarded by "hitchhiking" packets of information onto the car as it travels, and then it could deposit the info in a later dot (not sure if or how this would be useful, but it sounds like it could be in some manner).

    Couple this with signage broadcasting data, cars with navigational aids (GPS and radar, mainly), standard vehicle-to-vehicle communication protocols (so cars could talk to each other to let each know intent and yielding) - I would be willing to bet that all of this is easily available, without needing special DGPS systems installed. Even without special "active dots", most of the system would be easy and cheap to develop.

    The expensive and hard to develop part isn't the hardware - it's the software. This includes not just the software for the system and the cars, but the "software" (ie, business processes) needed for insurance and liability concerns for all parties involved.

    --
    Reason is the Path to God - Anon
  50. Re:VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by Khazunga · · Score: 1

    They're generally seen as very reliable cars. Not Toyota or Honda quality, but very good nevertheless. I own an Audi A3 (basically a rebranded Golf with better interiors), reaching now 200 000km and running real fine with no events besides normal maintenance except for a clutch spring failure at 85 000km.

    --
    If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you
  51. Re:Self-driving? How about quality and reliability by Khazunga · · Score: 0
    Aah, a public transport advocate. I don't know where you live, so I can't make the calculations for you, but here are mine:
    • Commute time door-to-door using automobile: 15min
    • Daily commute: 30km
    • Auto gas consumption: 8l/100km
    • Monthly gas consumption in commute: 30km*20days*.08=48l/month
    • Gas cost: 1.32/l
    • Monthly costs telecommuting by car: 63
    • Commute time door-to-door using subway: 45min
    • Monthly subway pass price: 27
    My solution? Car pooling. When a two person pool is head-to-head costwise and beats transport times 300%, public transportation must be called overpriced. And if we pooled three people, we'd make a profit.
    --
    If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you
  52. Slashdot ate the euros by Khazunga · · Score: 1

    Price and costs are in euros. /. ate the symbol.

    --
    If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you
  53. Re:Self-driving? How about quality and reliability by Zaatxe · · Score: 1

    I'm not a REAL public transport advocate, I just like it because here in Barcelona it works much better than in other cities I've lived and I don't have a car. Until about a year ago I lived in a 500 thousand people city in southern Brazil, where public transportation sucked and I had a car.

    Every case is a case. Right now for me, public transportation is wonderful because:
    1) I don't have a car, so I don't have a choice (he he...)
    2) I live in a neighborhood where I can go almost everywhere by foot
    3) When I need to use the public tranportation it is fast, reliable and available where I need/want to go
    4) After years driving, I kind of got tired of it

    Besides, here in Barcelona the gas is about 1.25 Euro a liter (it's 6 dollars a gallon) and a parking space cost around 2.50 Euro (3.20 dollars) an hour.

    Anyway, as I said, every case is a case. Because it seldom rains here, the gas costs a lot motorcycles can park on the sidewalks, lots of people here have small motorcycles and scooters. They are as numerous as cars. As you can see, one uses the options that suits him/her better.

    --
    So say we all
  54. Re:Self-driving? How about quality and reliability by siriuskase · · Score: 0

    Doesn't go where I want to go, and even if it did, I couldn't leave my crap in it all night or bring home a load of pine nuggets.

    --
    If you must moderate, please moderate as irrelevent, not something bad, because I'm sure someone will find this interest
  55. Re:VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by istewart · · Score: 1

    You mean glow plugs? I don't think a Golf TDI is gonna need spark plugs. :)

  56. Re:We could probably have self-driving cars today. by Animats · · Score: 1

    Actually, we had that in 1997. See Demo 97, where all that was implemented in a live freeway lane in San Diego. Then funding was cut.

  57. one thing this might be good for... by Rastan_B2 · · Score: 1

    is setting a lap time benchmark for track motor racing sports such as F1... lets see how good schumi, alonso et al. really are...

    On another note, if these scientists think they're so smart... let's see them do it with a motorbike =)

  58. This can't come too soon by btempleton · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Over 1 million people are killed in automobile accidents each year globally, 43,000 in the USA. Far more are injured or maimed.

    Estimates for the costs of crashes range from 10 to 30 cents/mile, factoring in everything -- health, repairs, suffering -- which is more than the cost of gasoline or depreciation.

    It's now down to an engineering problem to build self-driving, crash-avoiding cars. It's the largest preventable cause of suffering and death we have.

    --
    Has it been over a year since you last donated to the Electronic Frontier Foundation
  59. Why use CMU when you have Stanford by montge · · Score: 1

    Since they already were working with Stanford, why would CMU matter?

  60. Re:Research(fixed) by indrax · · Score: 1

    /I suspect we would have AI already if it could be turned directly into a product./

    How do you figure?
    Even ignoring the the potential for a singularity, the income possibilities for a decent AI are huge:

    Cheap but pleasing and polite telephone customer service.
    Video monitoring and loss prevention.
    'Search'
    Medical diagnosis

    Any company that develops a generic intelligence will very quickly become the largest company in the world. (assuming no one else does rolls their own very very quickly) There is almost no product or service that can'tbe improved or replaced by AI.

    And that's not even counting:
    Robotics (household, manufacturing, military, DRIVING)
    Entertainment (everything done now, plus good game AI opponents and sex bots)
    Programming (including new AI's)

    Automated invention and design. (Hey look Dave, I just found a cure for cancer!)

    How's that for turning directly into a product?

    AI has gotten relatively low commercial funding because it is high risk, and people have gotten burned on it. Now that academic research has brought us seemingly much closer, more and more investors will place their bets.

  61. to quote neo: by uNople · · Score: 1

    whoa...

  62. Re:VW? Reliability and Quality SUCK. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't know about you, but I'd consider the ABS controller a more life critical component than automatic cone navigating!

    If the ABS controller fails in a way that leave you unable to brake? That's potentially very deadly.

  63. Two bad experiences by zerofoo · · Score: 1

    My wife and I both bought VWs at the same time. She bought a 2000 Jetta GLS 2.0L and I bought a 2000 Golf 1.8T. We loved the fact that we could get great fit and finish in cars that cost less than $21,000.00.

    Both cars had very similar problems. The problems that were not similar were related to different engines.

    A friend of mine also owns a 2002 Jetta 1.8T.

    All of us have had similar problems. These are not one-off, outlying statistic, type stuff. These are repeated, widespread, design failures. So much so, that most of the issues were acknowledged and paid for by VW post warranty. That's a good move by VW, but I expect the design work and testing to be done on their nickel....not mine.

    No one paid me for the time and effort to deal with these problems (monthly trips to the dealer, time without a car or rental fees...etc).

    I still drive the Golf, and to VWs credit, the 6 year old car runs well and still feels "tight". That said, I won't buy another VW.

    I don't expect cars to be perfect, but our 2004 Jeep Grand Cherokee has 60,000 miles and it has been in the shop only twice for unscheduled maintenance. The Jeep is not as fun to drive, but it has given us a lot less grief than the VWs.

    -ted

  64. Aren't we over-reacting? {Score; 4, Insightful} by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Volkswagens suck. They try to ride on the coat-tails of being "German-engineered", yet fail miserably. I'd rather someone hold a gun to my head and make me buy a Ford.

    Contrary to their advertising campaign, there is only one stereotype that Volkswagen owners must suffer: They're chick-mobiles.

  65. a lone crusader in a dangerous world by Hard_Code · · Score: 1

    "Michael, why won't you answer me?"
    -KITT

    --

    It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
  66. Re:We could probably have self-driving cars today. by cr0sh · · Score: 1
    Yeah - I know about that project - I remember seeing a video demo of it with several cars in "train configuration" (where they were all following each other mere feet bumper-to-bumper at high speed), with the "drivers" (passengers? donors?) hanging their hands/arms out the window. I wasn't trying to suggest it as being a "new idea", I am more peeved that it is an old idea which should have been implemented by now.


    Thanks for the link, though...

    --
    Reason is the Path to God - Anon