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Wild Predictions for a Wired 2007
An anonymous reader writes "Wired has put up its predictions for the coming year, in technology, internet, and entertainment news. Despite their claim that they are 'wild' predictions, a lot of them make some sense. Some of their calls: 'Google Stock Hits $1,000 per Share. Internet Traffic Doubles to 5,000 petabits per day by the end of 2007. And 80 percent of it is peer-to-peer file sharing, mostly Skype video and BitTorrent. BitTorrent on TiVo: Speaking of, digital video recorders get BitTorrent baked in, bringing internet video to the living room. Spam Doubles: No-brainer -- but no one cares because we're all using IM, especially at work. Second Life Ends a Life: Skullduggery in Second Life -- probably digital adultery -- ends in a real-life murder. Year o' the Laptop: Half of all new computers sold in 2007 will be laptops and 20 percent of those will be Apple's MacBooks." What do you folks think? How many will Wired have called correctly by the end of the year?
Vista fails
Jacko getting short of cash again???
Donald 'Duck' Dunn: We had a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.
Internet Traffic Doubles to 5,000 petabits per day by the end of 2007. And 80 percent of it is peer-to-peer file sharing, mostly Skype video and BitTorrent.
Change that "spam", and then I'd believe it.
Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
Ah, Wired wildly predicting things; it's as if we've never left 1994, much less 2006. Bring on the memories.
So many social revolutions seen through the lens of that San Francisco circle jerk of media. So many people lead to the slaughter of the bubble by these losers. And someone at wired must work for Second Life because they've been over-hyping that non-event forever.
And I'm goin' win the big lottery! So if you could loan me a couple of hundred until then, I'll take good care of you when the gravy train comes in!
What is the point of making these wild predictions?
Donald 'Duck' Dunn: We had a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.
Second Life Ends a Life: Skullduggery in Second Life -- probably digital adultery -- ends in a real-life murder.
I see someone has been reading . That plot has been covered already.
Ce n'est pas une signature automatique.
Donald 'Duck' Dunn: We had a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.
init 11 - for when you need that edge.
that this is the year of linux on the desktop and that this is the year that sun's "whatever the hell we are calling thin clients this year" breaks the MS stranglehold on the corporate desktop.
i don't think either will happen, but some crackpot makes that prediction every year. this year, it would appear that cackpot is me :-)
sarcasm:
-noun
1. harsh or bitter derision or irony.
Half of all new computers sold in 2007 will be laptops and 20 percent of those will be Apple's MacBooks."
I doubt this. But then, Wired has always been even bigger Apple shills than Slashdot is.
Still no flying cars.
Damnit...
I was promised flying cars...
____
~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey
Not sure that this'll happen, unless you want to stretch the definition of "a major newpaper".
The latter was more-or-less already true before 2007 started. The former... It's too early to tell, never underestimate the power of marketing dweebs at selling crap.
Not really a surprise or news. I thought it had already been done, but I guess I could be wrong. Not like it'd be the first time.
Still 5+ years off. Also it's not really an online type thing until they get a USB medicomaitc or something like that. It's still going to require the wom(an|en) in question to go to a lab and/or doctors office.
That's hardly insightful or news. Already done, it's called congress.
Got bridge? Want one? This won't happen.
Wired, meet youtube, youtube meet wired.
Possible, but I doubt it. Most people are too lazy to move.
34486853790
Connection too slow for X forwarding? Try "ssh -CX user@host"
I'm a luddite I admit, but what makes IM so great?
There's no way to archive the messages is there?
Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?
How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?
I definitely have uses for irc (which is kinda like im I guess) but if it were my sole means of electronic communication I wouldn't get anything done. What am I missing?
How many petabits are wasted on "Frist Psot" posts one wonders......
Layne
Spam Doubles: No-brainer -- but no one cares because we're all using IM, especially at work.
Sorry, wrong, *buzzz*. Email will continue to be the corporate IT bedrock it's been for the last decade. While IM is great for those young folks with a short attention spam pushing around uber-important stuff like "OMG?!?!? He dumped her? Shes gonna like be sooooo drunk tonite!" -- and I'll admit it even has a place augmenting email in certain areas of the enterprise -- corporate america already has billions in infrastructure built around this more persistant method of communication. I for one have noticed that if I leave "on" an IM client at work I get pestered to the point where I just end up keeping it off, and eventually unstall it.
They were trying to establish a viable colony and needed to attract more colonists. "Hostile Frigid Waste" wasn't working, so Greenland it was.
I am the one true god. However, as an atheist, I don't believe in myself. I guess I have a self-esteem problem.
Spam Doubles: No-brainer -- but no one cares because we're all using IM, especially at work
I just stopped using one of my accounts at work because of spim. So yes, people care.
- Google Stock -- who gives a flying f*ck anyway except the tiny number who own some?
- Internet Traffic -- bandwidth is always in demand, but it will be 80% taken up by spam
- BitTorrent on TiVo -- more likely BitTorrent will be throttled by some dipsh*t judgment
- Spam Doubles -- sure, and more; but only those with no work to do use IM
- Second Life murder -- the miracle is that it hasn't happened already
- Year o' the Laptop -- long overdue, but 20% for Macs is optimistic
Happy NúJã!--
As the database engineer said when she realised she'd have to start using XML, "I remember when all of this was fields"
.. on the other hand the anal retention level for those that do stay is off the scale
I highly doubt with a democratic congress in charge things are going to be getting any worse for us in the areas of privacy and the government any time soon.
There is more to science than physics!
www.iomalfunction.blogspot.com
They're not predicting the Second Coming of the Woz?
Frog blast the vent core.
These predictions are being tracked on Who's Wrong (along with lots of others).
The clueless journalists that want to write about something 'edgy' and 'VR' discover that Second Life is a lame excuse for a massively-multiplayer online experience (pretty much used only by the clueless), and stop referring to it as if it's the be-all and end-all archetypical "VR" experience?
Nah, I doubt it too.
-Styopa
How can they call these predictions for 2007 if there's no iPod killer?
I was promised an iPod killer. I want my iPod killer. Where is my iPod killer?
"Oh drat these computers, they're so naughty and so complex. I could pinch them."
Marvin the Martian
I don't buy the whole Skype video being a large part of the doubling internet traffic. Internet video has been around for a good while now and Skype can market the hell out of it but i don't think it'll aquire such a large slice of the internet pipes. The move from email to IM is also unlikely, way too many business' and way too much money already invested in email servers/infrastructure.
Besides that, decent predictions. I think we can all vouch for notebooks slowly taking over the desktop market, case and point would be that this last year alone I bought a laptop for myself, my dad bought himself a laptop and my sister a macbook. I don't think macbooks will take such a large share of the notebook market allthough I do think they will be top contenders.
My prediction is that there will be more spam (seems like a sureshot every year, unfortunately) and botnets will be taken ever more seriousely (I hope at least).
my 2cents.
Yes, I believe it. According to their future estimates per growth and multiple, it should be trading about $700 by the end of 2007, with a low estimate of $600. It might not happen by 2007, but if it continues to grow at the same rate for 2008, I would believe seeing up to 1,000 if it does not split somewhere in '07.
Vi havas e-poston.
I don't see how. Blu-ray is a better format, with bigger studios such as Fox and Disney. Not to mention the fact that Apple and Dell support it, along with a multitude of other large companies.
I forget, what does HD-DVD have? Microsoft, Pinoneer, and a few movie studios? I don't quite remember everything.
All this still overlooking the fact that blu-ray is the superior format, yes, betamax vs. vhs, bla bla bla, but currently, it isn't in a consumer fight like that. It's in an early adapter fight. But, when it becomes more affordable, do you think people are going to go out and get HD-DVD players, when they most likely already have one in their Dell or Apple computer? Not to mention that it's already in their PS3 that they have in the home media center, if they don't have a HTPC. And you have to give the PS3 some slack. It really isn't a bad console at all. Sure, it's a little pricey, but it's cheaper than the high-end 8800GTX XXX out right now.
So, tell me how blu-ray was going to lose again?
A major newspaper gives up printing on paper to publish exclusively online.
This actually already happened late last year.
Digg holds out for a big payday but ends up like Friendster (i.e., no friends).
This point should perhaps come with the disclaimer that Digg-competitor Reddit.com is owned by Wired.
"Spam doubles but no-one cares because everyone's using IM" -- they have got to be kidding. Not a chance in hell.
Everything I needed to know about life, I learnt from Blake's Seven
I added a bunch of these to Inkling Markets if anyone wanted to share their opinion that way: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/list?term=wi red/
Now that he's burnt through software and hardware makers,
You're right. It's nearly impossible to find hardware or software that works with Microsoft products.
So, despite tremendous family money and legal connections and great initial success, Microsoft will soon fail.
Are you actually delusional, or just trolling?
We are all using IM at work? I highly doubt it. Most companies I have worked for, and most companies where my friends work, take great pains to prevent use of IM. Beyond just fear of employees wasting time chatting with friends, there is a perceived security risk (yes, there are precautions that can be taken if they bothered) of sending confidential data etc.
Ironically, this link was next to the article.
It is by the juice of the coffee bean that thoughts acquire speed, the teeth acquire stains. The stains become a warning
I find it far more useful to look at an oracle's track record than at their predictions. don't you? Pending predictions are just there to go in the bin until you can tell whether or not they're actually accurate.
Some cursory searching yields no old wired predictions articles. Anybody else have better luck?
Is the new buzzphrase of 2007 "baked in"? Kill it now, before it multiplies!
I pity people who think that the only way to get ahead is to screw someone else.
It's true that great power lies ahead both ways, but unfortunately the path of the "light side" is an unmapped uphill hike through thick forest, while the "dark side" provides shuttle service.
Ignore anything I said above, I actually agree with everything you believe - mod accordingly.
I am not a financial expert but I have enough working knowledge to know this is unlikely. At the current price, $460, GOOG has a market cap of 140B and reported revenue of 6B. Compare that to microsoft, whose market cap is double, about $280B, and income is 44B. A doubling of google's stock price would make google as valuable as microsoft, with only a fraction of the income. Google is simply not as valuable as microsoft, yet.
No doubt GOOG would hit $600 or $700 this year, but not $1000, it's too high too soon. The psycology and initial "wowwing" of wall street is over. GOOG must bring in the money for the stock to see prices that high.
And that's my extremely nutty prediction for 2007.
How many did Wired call correctly for 2006?
From http://www.ibiblio.org/pub/linux/docs/HOWTO/Advoca cy
Has AC called this one? Will "Zong" stop asking questions like "What do you folks think? Has AC called this one? Will "Zong" stop asking questions like "What do you folks think?....
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
A Googlephone, more seriously named...it integrates with Googlemaps, youtube, pics, and groups. Using GPS, all pictures and movies can be tagged with the location of where you are, making it possible to search for images and video by location. This in turn makes the organization of pictures much easier and streamlined. Also allows for your googlepage to be updated via cell phone for personal journaling. GoogleGroups will notify you of members or events in the area and allow you to spread beyond the GoogleTalk already available to use on the phone and let you actually talk with people. Also, groups could tag things to do in their city (ie I'm into museums, my group membership tags on my phonemaps local museums) Again, using GPS, allow pairing to find friends in cities by mapping a route to meet someone.
"I was promised flying cars..."
I think the Iraqi's have those.
Do they really believe their Google stock prediction? The market thinks it's pretty unlikely. If you agree with Wired, put your money where your mouth is. Here's the link to GOOG call options with a $750 strike price, a 1/18/08 expiration, and a price of only around $5.60:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GOOG&m=2008-01
Stock options are contracts you buy that let you purchase a share of the stock at the strike price on the expiration date. In practice, this means that you are making a bet that the stock will pass the strike price by the expiration date; if you are correct, you win the difference.
So if Wired's prediction comes true, you'd earn $250 ($1000-750) for every $5.60 you spend on the option -- a 4364% return on investment. Not bad for a year's investment.
I remember in about 1995 they had a cover with a big smiley face and it said, "The Long Boom." They were predicting a constantly booming economy for the next 25 years. Even then I thought it was naive.
-- QED
Oh -- a viewbie.
Make something. Anybody can look around. It's a coder's playground.
The Mars exploration predictions will probably come true, and the ones on Google are quite plausible ( which IMHO is not sufficient a reason to buy Google stock )
Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
1) Jobs will marry bigfoot.
2) Ballmer will be revealed as an alien, from (wait for it....) "The Planet of the Apes!".
3) No one will remember any of the predictions by the pundits, allowing them to claim successes.
4) Windows 'Vista' will be the most stable and secure Windows OS *ever*.
5) BSD will finally die.
6) Web 3.0 will be the hot new thing. 2.0 will be seen as just another 'bubble'. But with 3.0 it will be different, it will be a paradigm shift to a whole new economy.
7) Thanks to the MS/Novell deal, a new era of peace, cooperation and interoperability will break out between MS and FOSS.
Remember, you read it hear first.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
You are wrong.
Check your facts.
Jackass.
For those people artificial corneas are the best hope.
IANAL but write like a drunk one.