Games Industry Sees 12 Billion in Sales For 2006

Gamespot is reporting that, with the NPD numbers in, we can finally put the debate about last year's winners and losers to rest. Overall, the industry was the winner, with a record-breaking $12.5 Billion in sales last year. December accounted for almost $4 Billion all by itself. In software, the usual suspects prevailed. Madden topped the chart with 2.8 Million in sales for the PS2 version of Madden 07. Right behind was New Super Mario Bros. on the DS, with some 2 Million in sales of its own. On the console side of things ... well, as Kotaku points out 'everyone is a winner' this year. Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo have all put out press releases declaring themselves the winner of the Holiday console wars. The sad reality, though, is there can be only one. According to the NPD numbers, between the launch of the new consoles and the end of the year, some 1.1 Million Nintendo Wiis were sold with 687,300 PS3s following closely behind. Microsoft trails with its numbers from 2005; it sold 607,000 consoles in its launch year. Don't feel too bad for Microsoft, though. They sold 1.1 Million 360s in December. The article points out this means Microsoft met its '10 Million in sales' goal for the end of 2006.

Comments

Price

[HappySqurriel]

Riley also thought the PS3's high price--$499 for the 20GB model, $599 for the 60GB--wasn't as large a factor as many have made it out to be. "I think price plays a role there, but remember during the holiday season people have deep pockets," he said. "Kids know what they want, and if they tell mom to go buy a PS3 and she comes home with a Wii, they won't be happy."

Honestly, when it comes to console sales I don't think price has that much of an impact on early adopters because it is a planned purchase; something which is budgeted for and anticipated months in advance. Where price becomes a factor is that most console purchases are not planned and happen when one or two popular games are sold; when someone watches an advertisement on TV and goes out to buy a PS3 with Metal Gear Solid or Final Fantasy they will (mostly) be anticipating a price of $300 or $400 for the system and game combined.

Re:Price

[Thansal]

hmmm, I dono. I am willing to bet the price was a factor for parents figguring out if Little Timmy (after all, we Know little timmy isn't that smart, after the incedent with H2SO4, and probably can't get the cash together to buy himself one, or the fact that he is under 16 YoA) gets a PS3 for XMass or not.

True, to hardcore gamers price possibly isn't AS big a deal, but even there I am betting a number of people that would have picked up the PS3 (despite the lackluster showing of games) are waiting it out for better games and a pricedrop (where in over cases people would have been willing to pick it up and then wait for the games).

Oh, and with the 360's showin in December, it looks like the race is going to be between MS and Nintendo.

Re:Price

[fistfullast33l]

Honestly, when it comes to console sales I don't think price has that much of an impact on early adopters

You are crazy. On the one hand, you frequently attack the PS3 for its high price and then on the other you say that price doesn't matter. Everyone got sticker shock in May when the PS3 prices came out and immediately everyone said I'm going the Xbox 360/Nintendo Wii route. You can't have it both ways.

Re:Price

[vidarh]

Attacking the PS3 for it's high price and saying it doesn't has that much impact on early adopters is entirely consistent - if you read the rest of the message you'll see he points out that he thinks it does have an impact on the majority of console sales because most sales aren't planned purchases. Whether you agree with him or not doesn't mean he can't have it both ways.

Re:Price

[bdonalds]

But Thansal, your argument makes no sense. We all know that after the H2SO4 incident, Timmy was no more, so why would his parents buy him a PS3?

Re:Price

[Anonymous Coward]

You lie, Timmy's not dead!

[Shredder Voice]: Do I?

Noooo!!!

Re:Price

[ShadowsHawk]

I disagree. Many of my coworkers own PS2 and were fairly interested when I mentioned that the PS3 was coming out. Out of the 10 or so that I talked to, zero went looking for one after I mentioned that it was $500-600. I believe over half of these people purchased the PS2 on or near launch. I would say that price makes a HUGE difference to the average consumer.

Re:Price

[Chris Burke]

Yeah price isn't a big deal for that tiny fraction of people who can be called early adopters. People buying consoles as Christmas gifts for their families do not fit that mold -- again except for a tiny fraction. And they do often budget and plan for Christmas months in advance, but that does not mean that they can afford to budget $600 -- they're budgeting because they have limited funds. A lot of people doing this will plan to buy a cheaper console because $600 is too much.

And as far as the quote about kids telling mom to buy a PS3, I can tell you that may happen but most of the time mom is going to ask how much one of these PS3 gizmos cost, and when the kids say $600 she's going to tell them no way, and the kids will either settle for a cheaper console or go without. I think I know which way most kids would rather go.

Re:Price

[drinkypoo]

Honestly, when it comes to console sales I don't think price has that much of an impact on early adopters because it is a planned purchase

As the quote indicates, people are willing to go into debt for the holidays. You can expect sales of the PS3 and to a lesser extent the Xbox 360 to fall off more sharply on a month-to-month basis than the Wii, although the sales of the Wii will of course be less than they were in December as well. Still, the Wii has the lowest price so when consumers come out of their Holiday-induced idiocy they will stop buying PS3s.

This holiday I practically did nothing for Xmas. Thank god. I avoided my family entirely, and instead of exchanging gifts my lady and I put a first/last/deposit down on a much much nicer house to rent. Amazingly we did not go into debt for any of this. The retailers hate us. Fuck 'em.

Re:Price

[bberens]

I agree entirely. The 360 has had a full year of game releases and hardware improvements over the PS3. According to the summary MS sold more 360s in Dec '06 than it did in its release year. I expect Dec '07 to be similar for the PS3. The PS3 will get a year of hefty games, blue ray movies, and maybe a slight price drop. Once that happens Christmas '07 they will sell another million units easy.

Re:Price

[Threni]

It might make a difference to the number sold around launch, but Sony only stopped making the original Playstation last year - PS2s are still selling well, so although it's obviously nice to have a new product fly out of the doors upon release ultimately it's not important.

Re:Price

[Thansal]

Actualy he is just unable to drink nomore. They have to get him liquids intraveinously, thus why they didn't have enough to cover the PS3.

Re:Price

[Total_Wimp]

The money is there, all Sony has to do is convince them to part with it. They sold a whole lot of units despite being $250 to $350 more expensive than the Wii. They did that by convincing customers that their product was very good, but also by convincing them that $500 to $600 was the "going rate" for a "really good" gaming console.

Moms don't think twice about paying $800 or more for a sofa, because that's what sofas cost. If Sony can convince even a relatively small number of them that there's nothing wrong with paying $500 or more for a gaming console and that there's value in that purchase, their sales may very well continue to be strong.

A very good percentage of flat panel HDTV sales are fueled by the desire of women to get that big, ugly TV out of their living room. That's a whole lot of moms. They know how much that purchase cost and it was almost always more than a thousand dollars. This is where Blue-Ray becomes part of the value proposition for the PS3. When dad wants HD content for the new TV and junior wants a "next gen" game machine, it's not that hard to do that math and figure that either a PS3 or an 360with the HD-DVD add-on is cheaper than either a Blue Ray or HD-DVD drive plus a gaming console, even if that console is the Wii. Conveniently for Sony, any price advantage for the 360 or Wii disappears at this point. Both the 360 and Xbox will represent good value, and even be seen as money savers, for this particular purchase, while the Wii becomes a non-issue. At this point, the cost of the PS3 will be seen as "the going rate," and other factors will start to drive the decision making process.

I know this isn't an especially large percentage of households at the moment, but it's growing. HDTV manufactures have already succeeded in resetting the "going rate" for a TV and lower income brackets are starting to save up. As this number grows, the above scenario will start to look more and more realistic. In this environment, the cost for the PS3 could cease being an issue for a lot of people.

BTW, have you looked at the TV section Best Buy latley? SDTV has shrunk. It takes up significantly less space than HDTV. Things will flip very soon, if they haven't already.

TW

Re:Price

[donaldm]

During the holiday season people think they have deep pockets and come back to reality when the bills come in. The problem with buying a game machine be it PS2, PS3, Wii or Xbox360 is the fact that premium games will be of similar price. Of course if you are a buying a next gen game machine for your kids I doubt that very many games would be brought since this quickly adds up. This is fine if you have the money but many don't have much disposable income to pay for games unless they are second hand and second hand games are not "in the spirit" of giving.

So after the holiday season there will most likely be a slump in game sales which most likely will not pickup till March/April and this is the time when cheaper HDTV's are scheduled to hit the market which may provide a huge boost to sales of the the Xbox360 and PS3. This is not to say that people won't buy the Wii but the other machines can play HD movies and the Wii cannot so I can see this machine being relegated to the kids room with an SD TV and possibly one or two games per year, unless the parent is an avid gamer. Of course I could be wildly wrong and the Wii will get pride of place with a HDTV. Prestige does play an important part in the purchase of more expensive items be it a gaming console, gaming PC, HDTV, a car or a house.

People that can afford a HDTV and possibly a home entertainment system as well normally can afford a PS3 and/or Xbox360+HD-DVD add-on as well as having enough disposable income to afford games over the lifetime of the console. These are the people that Microsoft and Sony are targeting, not the people who can just barely afford a machine and one or two games per year. After all even selling a console at a profit is pointless unless people buy games and/or movies for it.

Re:Price

[Dev59]

Manufacturers haven't reset the going rate for TVs at all! In fact, 32" widescreen LCD HDTVs are already reaching price delta's easily comparable to 32" CRT TVs from not too long ago. Manufacturers and the market have done an excellent job of very quickly bringing down the price of HDTVs. Their penetration will grow exponentially this year.

It's all relative?

[antialias02]

I'm still scratching my head as to how 687,000 is "closely behind" 1.1 Million. (400,000 consoles is nothing to shake a stick at.)

Re:It's all relative?

[Anonymous Coward]

The 687k number was XBox 360's equivalent sales in Dec 2005 (Comparing XBox 360's launch XMas period with Wii/PS3's launch XMas period). In December 2006, they sold 1.1million.

Re:It's all relative?

[Otter]

I think the point is that relative to 10 million 360's, it's close. (Or maybe it's closely behind in dollar sales, not in units.)

Re:It's all relative?

[bestinshow]

The 687k number was XBox 360's equivalent sales in Dec 2005 (Comparing XBox 360's launch XMas period with Wii/PS3's launch XMas period). In December 2006, they sold 1.1million.

Wow, even the summary says "Microsoft trails with its numbers from 2005; it sold 607,000 consoles in its launch year."

This means that in 6 weeks Sony managed to outsell the XBox360 in its first few months of sales. Despite the massively higher price tag. Despite HD not being as new and shiny. It is a minor consolation to Sony, however now their fanboys have their PS3s and this year is going to be really tough. Still, they sold a boat load of PS2s, so they're making money there by the bucketload.

The NPD figures are USA only too. The Wii would have sold more but Nintendo shuffled some half a million into Europe for a launch there.

The fact is worldwide to date the PS3 has sold around a million consoles. The Wii has sold around 3 million. The figures on nexgenwars.com are clearly pulled from thin air though.

Re:It's all relative?

[Eponymous Crowbar]

The first several months of the 360's introduction were pretty rough for potential buyers. As bad as the PS3 shortages were, I can walk into a store right now and pick one up after just two months on the market. The 360 trickled out until it was already 4-6 months old (which was when I could finally find one to buy without putting any effort into the search). It was more or less sold out until then.

Re:It's all relative?

[AKAImBatman]

This means that in 6 weeks Sony managed to outsell the XBox360 in its first few months of sales. Despite the massively higher price tag. Despite HD not being as new and shiny.

In defense of Microsoft, their initial sales were also constrained by supply problems. So just barely edging out Microsoft's 2005 sales isn't much of a victory for Sony. It might make for some nice headlines, though. God knows that Sony needs some positive press.

The NPD figures are USA only too. The Wii would have sold more but Nintendo shuffled some half a million into Europe for a launch there.

Not just Europe. The Wii was also launched in Australia, New Zealand, Russia (weird?), and South America; placing rather massive demands on Nintendo's already strained production capabilities. Apparently, the Wii became the fastest selling console ever in Australia, adding to its record shattering sales in the UK and the rest of Europe. So far, the Wii has been a license to print money for Nintendo.

The figures on nexgenwars.com are clearly pulled from thin air though.

You have no idea how correct you are. The nitty-gritty of it is as follows:

It basically just takes time and research to estimate the numbers as closely as possible.

Now for the new consoles it is a little harder since there is no previous sales data to go off of. What I do for these is research how many they are expecting to have on launch and by the end of the year. For the launch counter I get it to around the number expected, and then I slow it down to pace it so that it will reach a good estimate for the end of the year, and as usual I will adjust anything if any official word comes in.

Re:It's all relative?

[Jesterboy]

Just another one of Zonk's oddly worded summaries; 687k is how much the Xbox 360 sold in December 2005, at which point it was available in North America, Europe, and Japan. I think Zonk is trying to compare launch performance; the 360 launched during November in North America, and was followed closely with Europe and Japan launches in December, whereas the Wii had a simultaneous launch (I think...) in the beginning of December.

For the December 2006, Microsoft sold 1.1 million Xbox 360 consoles, following along with the Wii. Although, it should be noted that the Wii is probably still experiencing supply shortages.

Re:It's all relative?

[Jesterboy]

Oops, nevermind; 607k Xbox 360s were sold in 2005, 687k PS3s, so the OP was referring to PS3s... Obligatory foot is in mouth. ^_^

I have to concur with the OP though; 400k consoles is not "close" at all.

Re:It's all relative?

[Brianech]

There is a pretty big difference here though. Both had comparable shipping figures, yet the 360 KEPT selling. Its not that Sony is shipping significantly more units than Microsoft did, its that they can't sell them. Hell my local walmart had PS3's in stock December 24th! I called a few EBGames to find out their stock (as I did for Wii too) And as of Jan 9th, 2/5 hadn't sold a SINGLE PS3 in january. All 5 had had stock since late December.

I dont have any next gen consoles, but right now I am searching in vain for a Wii (no one in this city has set dates, they drop them as soon as they arrive by courier. Just wanted to point out I am not a fan boy of any company. While I thought Sony would lose its dominance of this generation, I dont know if anyone could have foreseen just how horrid they would really do. Getting outsold in Japan 2 to 1 against the Wii has got to have execs worried, considering Japan was Sonyland last generation. I think we'll have a better idea of which direction the console war will take after next holiday season.

Nifty

[Thansal]

Well, it is always fun to see the sales numbers.

I am VERY happy to see NSMB at number 2 (Hey, I am a nintendo fanboy, what can I say). I also am unsurprised (though still disapointed in the general public) to see Madden at #1.

What I AM surprised about is to see the number of Z:TP copies sold for the NGC vs the number sold for the Wii. And if you add the 2 numbers together you end up with it dominating the december market, and coming into the top 10 for the year, and that is cause for much rejocing to me!

Re:Nifty

[Anonymous Coward]

I also am unsurprised (though still disapointed in the general public) to see Madden at #1.

We bought that because the NASCAR, BUD drinking, chicks showing their saggy boobs, game hasn't come out yet. Beleive you me, I'd rather be palying a classier game like the NASCAR one than Madden any day!

--General Public

Re:Nifty

[techpawn]

I need to pay closer attention to game titles...

I was pretty SOL ASAP with all the accronims I mean WTF!

Re:Nifty

[The PS3 Will Fail]

"(though still disapointed in the general public)"

Why does it disappoint you that people buy and enjoy Madden videogames?

Re:Nifty

[Aladrin]

Sports games sell a LOT differently than other games. Sports gamers buy the game when it first comes out, and that's it. Buy-back prices suck because stores know they won't be able to resell the used game anyhow. Sports gamers just don't buy used games.

Why?

I'm not a sports gamer, but I imagine it's because they know in less than a year, the next version of the same game will be out and if you missed the launch of the game by 6 months, you can probably just wait 6 more for next year's better version and save some money. (Since you'd probably buy next year's anyhow.)

It isn't the same with other genres. You never know if there's going to be a sequel, and the sequels usually aren't better. So if you missed the launch of the game, 6 months later you'll just buy it used and save a bunch of money. Even an announced sequel to the game won't necessarily make you wait, as sequels suck and it could be 3 years before that sequel comes out. (Duke Nukem Forever, anyone?)

Re:Nifty

[Thansal]

Buying a Madden isn't a bad thing (hey, if yah like watchign football, I guess it is fun, I admitedly have no interest). However, buying the same game, every year, with NOTHING NEW (aside from better graphics and the new team rosters), makes me sad.

As a side note, this is the same reason why I hate seeing all these FPS games that are simply rehashes of the same ol', same ol' sell so well. I was afraid of this when we saw UT2K3 and UT2K4 (it felt exactly as if UT was turning into madden), however the games were segnificantly different, and more importantly there was not another UT until UT2K7. Only so much can progress in 1 year of time, where decent amount CAN happen in 3 (not saying UT2K7 is any good, as I have not seen much of it yet.)

Re:Nifty

[Thansal]

I know, thus why I was not suprised. I am disapointed b/c the Madden games really do not evolve much between years. Yah, if you look at it over a 3 or 5 year delay then you get a decent evoloution (I think, as I stay away from them mostly, just catch a few screen shots when ever the new one is about to come out). So why do you have to buy the new one each friken year? Do you have to have the exact uptodate team rosters and player stats (hell, you can program those in with most of the newer ones)? Are the graphics that much better (no)? Are the pointless features that they add in just to get you to buy the game actualy good?

Meh.

I am relatively incensed about this currently (more so then usual) because I am thinking of picking up a PS2+Games off of ebay, however I keep on seeing people with lists that look like "Madden '97, madden '98, madden '99, NHL '02, NHL '03, NHL '04".

Re:Nifty

[The PS3 Will Fail]

"However, buying the same game, every year, with NOTHING NEW (aside from better graphics and the new team rosters), makes me sad."

How many Madden games have you owned? There is more in each release than just new rosters. And to fans of the NFL that are looking for a football simulation, those updated rosters are important. Would it be nice if EA released roster updates? Sure - but that's not the way it goes. They've added numerous additions over the years including different play modes, mini-games, individual player career mode, et cetera. I just don't understand why someone would criticize others for buying and enjoying a game. Yes, I buy Madden. Not every year but often enough. Why do you care so much?

"As a side note, this is the same reason why I hate seeing all these FPS games that are simply rehashes of the same ol', same ol' sell so well. I was afraid of this when we saw UT2K3 and UT2K4 (it felt exactly as if UT was turning into madden), however the games were segnificantly different, and more importantly there was not another UT until UT2K7. Only so much can progress in 1 year of time, where decent amount CAN happen in 3 (not saying UT2K7 is any good, as I have not seen much of it yet.)"

What metric are you using to measure "difference" and how have you determined that UT2K3 and UT2K4 have higher ratings than Madden 03 and Madden 04? Where is the list of features that are different between Madden 03 and Madden 04? Certainly you must be able to list off the differences if you're so sure that it's such a small list.

BTW: You spelled "significantly" incorrectly.

Re:Nifty

[The PS3 Will Fail]

"Are the pointless features that they add in just to get you to buy the game actualy good?"

If you don't enjoy the games in the first place, why is it that you think you're a good judge of whether the additional content is enjoyable?

Re:Nifty

[Chris Burke]

I am VERY happy to see NSMB at number 2 (Hey, I am a nintendo fanboy, what can I say). I also am unsurprised (though still disapointed in the general public) to see Madden at #1.

Heh, I don't care since I don't own a DS, but you never know I may get one. Anyway, nothing wrong with Madden, especially if you don't already own a football game. I found it interesting that my friend, who isn't a gamer and is not into football at all, seemed quite interested in Madden after seeing it at a friends house. Personally I agree with him that football is a good basis for a video game. Picking plays and strategizing is rather fun. Not that I intend to buy it.

What I AM surprised about is to see the number of Z:TP copies sold for the NGC vs the number sold for the Wii. And if you add the 2 numbers together you end up with it dominating the december market, and coming into the top 10 for the year, and that is cause for much rejocing to me!

Yeah, I couldn't help but notice that the 'across all platforms for December' didn't include Z:TP which would have been 2nd or 3rd place behind Madden and maybe Call of Duty depending on rounding. I also find it odd that only half the people which bought a Wii bought Z:TP, but that's probably just because to me Nintendo console == the console you buy to play Zelda.

Re:Nifty

[KDR_11k]

To be fair, Madden for the Wii alledgedly added a lot of new stuff so buying that is justified.

Re:Nifty

[Guppy06]

"What I AM surprised about is to see the number of Z:TP copies sold for the NGC vs the number sold for the Wii."

People could find something to play the GCN version on. Sales of the Wii version were limited by the number of Wiis available to play it. Personally, I got the GCN version as soon as it came out rather than deal with the insanity of trying to get a Wii before Christmas (which fell into my lap on Wednesday).

Besides, there's also the "Link is a lefty and anything else is heresy!" camp.

Re:Nifty

[MeanderingMind]

Why do you care so much?

Because we feel it sets a bad precident.

It is true that over the years there have been many new features added to the Madden series. However, the number of features added each new year is small. This is not to say that they are bad features, but that alone they don't seem to be worth another $60 investment.

What worries us is the success of this model. If developers get the message that they can release minor updates as full blown games, the possibilities for abuse and mediocrity are numerous. Imagine Microsoft releasing Halo 3 each year, adding a couple more levels and some small number of new features included. The mere prospect is horrific.

It may be that only the more hardcore or well invested casual players care, but it shakes us to think that developers might see the Madden series and think, "Why am I taking 2-3 years to make a sequel to my game, when obviously players are more than happy to pay exactly the same price for far less new product!"

Part of the issue may be that "nerds" as it were, see new rosters as a very trivial feature while many of the principle buyers of Madden see it as a very big one. This is possibly because the nerds see the rosters as merely slightly different statistics and barely more than gameplay tweaks, while understanding how simple it is to take players already existing in the game and change their numbers.

Regardless, Madden and other sports titles aren't the only series that do this. Koei's Dynasty Warriors series has some variation or other that hits the market every year.

Re:Nifty

[MeanderingMind]

The reason is that to Sports Gamers the roster is a big feature.

Technically oriented people, including me, have a hard time understanding this because we know enough about the mechanics of the games to know what is and isn't difficult developement. Aside from completely new faces, and removing retirees, the amount of work that goes into updating the rosters is trivial. We don't see something any of us could finish the majority of in at most a week as something worth $60.

However, the common Sports Gamer doesn't know this, and doesn't care. These people follow the batting statistics throughout the year, know how many yards a receiver has run, how many free throws a player has missed. The statistics are half the game to them, which is why the rosters are so important.

Is this being abused at the expense of the Sports Gamers? Yes. Do they know? Probably not. Do they care? Unlikely.

As fearful as we may be that this model of developement will creep out into other genres, I think we're safe.

Re:Nifty

[The PS3 Will Fail]

"However, the number of features added each new year is small."

Again, how are you measuring this? What video game series is, in your mind, the antithesis of Madden?

Re:Nifty

[drsquare]

How do you know it's the same people buying Madden every year? Maybe people buy a copy every 3-4 years, and the huge playerbase keeps each version top of the sales charts.

Re:Nifty

[MaineCoon]

Just releasing a new roster would also mean large licensing fees, which are factored in. With the work in the roster, new player images, license fees... it adds up. At that point, throw some more features in and sell a new game. Rather than charge $15-25 for a simple 'roster update', charge $60 for a new game (keep in mind that stores get a good portion of that fee). Players will pick the enhancements+roster for $50 to $60 over a roster update for a third as much.

It's only abuse if they feel abused or harmed. They're buying more copies each year than the previous year, so that obviously is not the case.

Re:Nifty

[Anonymous Coward]

I got the chance to play both versions of TP over the holiday, and it is really, really weird to see the world flipped like that. Like, truly bizarre. F'serious. Especially when I realized that if you flip the Wii world map, you get a good approximation of the world map from LOZ:OOT.

Re:Nifty

[MeanderingMind]

Some good examples:

WarCraft. The differences between each installation of the series, even factoring in StarCraft, are large.

Mario. Whether it's Kart or a game with him running around squashing goombas the upgrades between these games were numerous.

Metroid. Prime and Prime 2 had completely new worlds, weapons, puzzles, and plot.

Final Fantasy. As much as we might have liked Square-Enix to stick with a particular gameplay system, they continually changed everything about their games with each new # (except the long and constant CG sequences).

Those are just a few high profile ones. There are other games spread across the spectrum, including shareware, that offer a large number of new features.

Re:Nifty

[The PS3 Will Fail]

Wow. That's great. You named some games and what they added - coming NOWHERE near defining a metric for measuring change.

Madden 2005: added the hit stick - a new control scheme, playmaker controls - allows more control of all players after the play has been called, new weekly talk radio show feature highlighting the season, introduction of player morale, franchise tags for working within the salary cap (just as in the NFL);

See? It's easy to list new features in Madden too. You claimed that Madden was unchanged when compared to other games. Okay - so I've cited a change list for Madden 04 to Madden 05. Tell me how you've determined that Warcraft 2 -> Warcraft 3 was a new game and Madden 04 -> Madden 05 was not. How are you measuring change? You never answered that.

Re:Nifty

[MeanderingMind]

I've made the mistake of assuming a sibling post of mine in this thread was a part of this particular discussion, and that's a cause of some of the confusion here.

What I was attempting to do was illustrate and expand upon the points I made here. I'll attempt to add some clarity to my position.

I never meant to imply that absolutely nothing was added between Madden games, but that in my opinion the changes were small and trivial because I'm a technical type who doesn't value the changes.

This highlights another point to be made. There is no universal metric by which game features can be measured, there is only each person's individual, unique metric by which they measure. Many of these metrics fall along similar lines, but ultimately deciding whether the additions in a new installment of a game are numerous or pithy is a decision each gamer makes for themselves.

It's easy to list new features for any game, the boxes themselves do that for us. However, we then give weights to each of the features we read and come to a conclusion on whether the new installment is worth buying for its price.

From where I stand, the new rosters, control scheme, weekly talk radio... those things strike me as worth very little. However, that's how I value those features and that's how I come to the conclusion that there's very little new to be found every year for Madden. Someone else, a big sports fan, will read those and be amazed at what's new and buy the game.

The reason why so many people slam Madden for "only updating the roster" is because for all of those people the new features are trivial and nearly worthless. Obviously these people aren't everyone, because the games still sell.

The whole thing isn't entirely relativistic, because to an extent there is some way to measure things (although it still is somewhat subjective). The amount of impact a particular feature has upon the game is a key factor. A completely new set of weapons, for example, is a big feature because of its impact on the game. A new control style usually isn't a big deal unless there was something horribly wrong with the old one, but can be quite nice regardless.

In short, because what people like me find impactful in video games rarely shows up significantly in Madden's new feature set each year there is criticism of it and the people who buy it. It is not without warrant, because we don't want to see the proliferation of feature sets we are wholly uninterested in. Perhaps it is rather unfair and not an understanding position to take, but it is not without reason.

Re:Nifty

[The PS3 Will Fail]

"I never meant to imply that absolutely nothing was added between Madden games, but that in my opinion the changes were small and trivial because I'm a technical type who doesn't value the changes."

What exactly do you mean by "a technical type"? Are you saying that you are analyzing the feature set and estimating the difficulty of the creation of that feature set?

"In short, because what people like me find impactful in video games rarely shows up significantly in Madden's new feature set each year there is criticism of it and the people who buy it. It is not without warrant, because we don't want to see the proliferation of feature sets we are wholly uninterested in. Perhaps it is rather unfair and not an understanding position to take, but it is not without reason."

Because I don't enjoy Final Fantasy games and do not play them, when a new one comes out, I don't jump on Internet message boards and insult people who do enjoy Final Fantasy games and complain about how they're all the same. Do you know why? I don't play the games so I don't feel as though I can evaluate what has changed between the latest release and the previous release. Why is it that people who don't play Madden can't show the same restraint? I just don't think you're in any type of position to make a judgement here.

Gears of War sales?

[Itchyeyes]

Madden topped the chart with 2.8 Million in sales for the PS2 version of Madden 07. Right behind was New Super Mario Bros. on the DS, with some 2 Million in sales of its own Where does Gears of War fit into this? The statistics I've read said it had sold 2.7 million copies as of Jan 2nd. Unless Gears sold over 700,000 copies in the first two days of the year, it would appear that these statistics are at least somewhat off.

Re:Gears of War sales?

[jonnythan]

Raw #s:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13769 3

Bottom line is that Gears of War was the best selling game of December, at 815,000 copies. It was #3 for the year with 1.8 million sales (following Madden 07 for the PS2 @ 2.8 million and New Super Mario Bros for the DS at 2 million).

It was #5 for all titles in December (the "All Titles" category lumps all versions of a single game together.. for instance, Madden 07 sales include sales on the PS2, PS3, 360, XBox, etc).

Re:Gears of War sales?

[Timesprout]

It was the top seller in Dec apparently with 815.7 K sales and 1.8 M sales since its release in Nov.

Re:Gears of War sales?

[Itchyeyes]

Ahh, suppose I fell for the old "shipped vs sold" trick.

Re:Gears of War sales?

[KirkH]

Not necessarily. These NPD numbers are for the US only. So 1.8 mil copies were sold in the US in 2006. Your number (2.7 mil by Jan 2) is probably worldwide.

Re:Gears of War sales?

[Anonymous Coward]

GoW was the #6 game for December, not #5. The neogaf thread is based on incomplete information which is reflected in the since twice-updated Gamespot article.

As you mention, it was only at the top of the per-platform list for December.

Analyst concerns

[AKAImBatman]

From the article:

Analysts were also skeptical, with some believing that the Wii sold more than NPD reported. "I don't understand how US Wii sell-through could be 1.1 million cumulatively, with Nintendo saying that they shipped half of their 4 million here and zero inventory on retail shelves at year end," said Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter. "Where are the other 900,000 units? I assume 200,000 are in transit, but this number makes no sense to me at all."

If the 1.1 million figure was just December, then it would make more sense. But 1.1 million since launch? That seems incredibly low no matter which way you cut it.

(Of course, that probably means that the PS3 and Xbox360 numbers are low as well.)

Re:Analyst concerns

[wframe9109]

I don't know how many stores are not included, but... Best Buy is one of them. I'm sure there were others. The numbers across the board are probably higher for each, perhaps with similar ratios...

Re:Analyst concerns

[Cheapy]

According to the raw data in a link above, microsoft actually had the best showing of the three.

Re:Analyst concerns

[miro f]

they said they were shipping 4 million consoles, with about half to go to North America.

1.1 million sold in USA alone tells me that they probably didn't meet their 4 million target, but I don't think they would have been pretty close

Re:Analyst concerns

[Rosebud128]

"1.1 million sold in USA alone tells me that they probably didn't meet their 4 million target, but I don't think they would have been pretty close"

NPD multiplies the estimates differently for each console. The lowest multiplier is used for Nintendo's machines (why this is, I don't know).

The reason why people like Patcher or others who get the numbers are so scratching their heads is because the software numbers are too high for both DS and Wii, higher than normal. We knew the attachment rate of Zelda: Twilight Princess would be high, but it is absurdly high (Wii's high software sales are even more surprising considering the Wii comes with a pack in game). To be fair, it is probably a little higher on both the Wii and DS hardware count. PSP looks like it is overstated (you want to see bad software sales? Look at PSP).

I just wish there was an alternative to the NPD. It is bad for the games industry to just have ONE main tracker for all of United States. In Japan, there are several (such as Media Create and Famitsu). Without competition, NPD can be sloppy and get away with it.

"Don't feel too bad for Microsoft, though."

[Half a dent]

Uh... ok I'll try not to.

Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[MikeRT]

The XBox 360 is a much, much better system already than the XBox ever was in terms of game library. Gears of War, 99 Nights, Quake 4, Enchanted Arms, Phantasy Star Online, Dead Rising and with games like Halo 3 and Lost Planet on the horizon for 2007, Sony faces a much tougher challenge. If Microsoft has already hit 10,000,000 units sold and is still climbing, as I suspect they are, it's probably only a matter of time before Square-Enix gets antsy and starts to think about Final Fantasy 13 and other games appearing on the XBox 360 and Wii.

I would expect 2007 to be the year that Sony finally gets its ass handed to it by Microsoft and Nintendo starts to return to its old status as a force unto itself in game production.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[Calinous]

The XBox had the great advantage of being able to run lots of the games created for the PC. Is the XBox360 better than the old XBox? Probably it is, but the XBox had a pretty good library of games on its own.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[Anonymous Coward]

If you say so, fanboy. On the other hand, Sony have a better console. They have more studios developing for them. Heavenly Sword, MGS4 et al aren't even out yet. More studios are producing Bluray content than HDDVD. You're not Zonk, are you?

Better console how?

From a theoritical processing power standpoint? Possibly, but that does not define a better console. As anyone can tell you 'Its the games, Stupid!' that determine which console is truely the best. Now, many developers were supporting the PS3 pretty heavily, but there seems to be a disproportionate readjustment of resources; for example consider what Konami's upcomming games were at the Tokyo Game Show:

• PS3
• Gradius series
• Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball
• Coded Arms Assault
• Pro Baseball Spirits series
• Metal Gear Solid 4
• World Soccer Winning Eleven series
• New Action Game
• New RPG
• Wii
• Soccer game
• Baseball game
• New Action Adventure game
• Music Simulation game
• New Action Adventure Game 2
• New RPG

To what it is now (they recently announced the cancelation of 4 PS3 games and 2 Wii games)

• PS3
• Pro Baseball Spirits series
• Metal Gear Solid 4
• World Soccer Winning Eleven series
• Wii
• Soccer game
• Baseball game
• New Action Adventure game
• Music Simulation game

As you read press releases there seems to be a pattern that the Number of exclusive PS3 games is disapearing at a rapid rate by being canceled or ported to another platform; this could just be random chance but there are tons of rumors that the biggest question at this years' E3 and TGS will be "Where is the PS3?"

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[revlayle]

MGS4 = franchise - but probably a good game ultimately. Heavenly sword... looks awesome, doesn't it? Not much else we know about it. Also, the pr0n industry has chosen HD-DVD, which EVERYONE knows, of course, that BluRay has lost now ;-)

I fail a bit to see what this has to do with BluRay vs. HD-DVD that much. Yeah, the system allow playing the two different media (360 = HD-DVD w/available add-on; PS3 = out of the box), but I'm not convinced that the reason people bought one of these system was the ability (or potential ability) to play certain new types of HD Optical Media (I'm sure it was on some consumer's lists of reasons, but how many really?).

Why is Sony a better console? I mean I'm sure it is a fine console and performs it's job well, once developers get a feel for it development kit and wrangling the power of the Cell... but still, what makes it better than a 360? (I would also ask the 360 crowd the same question... FIGHT!)

If all you got is MGS4 (yes, I would love to play it, but CERTAINLY NOT for 560-650 dollars!), this Heavenly Sword thingy (yes, I have seen video, *looks* very nice... that's all *I* know about it), and BluRay making it "better", then I would say, at best, and perhaps subjectively, it would be *marginally* better, if at all.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[Daetrin]

I would expect 2007 to be the year that Sony finally gets its ass handed to it by Microsoft and Nintendo starts to return to its old status as a force unto itself in game production.

You want to see a force unto itself? Take a look at the Japanese software sales for the first week off 2007! Nintendo has 10 our of the top 10 titles, 18 out of the top 20, and 24 out of the top 30. If you look at titles actually published by Nintendo itself it's 9/10, 15/20, and 20/30. The only bad news for Nintendo there is that some developers might be reluctant to develop for systems that are so clearly dominated by a single publisher.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[Anonymous Coward]

If they don't get more consoles into homes, you're going to see all of the studios without contractual obligations back out of their PS3 exclusives. Of course, the exclusives that are already set in stone should help sell some more PS3s, but I'm not sure how many. After all, how many people are going to pay $560 or $660 because they want to play a certain game?

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[twistedsymphony]

Why is Sony a better console? I mean I'm sure it is a fine console and performs it's job well, once developers get a feel for it development kit and wrangling the power of the Cell... but still, what makes it better than a 360? (I would also ask the 360 crowd the same question... FIGHT!)

I agree that the PS3 is a fine console, and that it does have a lot of potential, but as far as I'm concerned potential is synonymous with hopes and dreams... I own all 4 consoles from the last generation, I own the big 3 from the generation before that. And I currently own a 360 and a Wii. At some point or another I end up buying most consoles, but I never buy them before such a point where the gaming experience is worth more then the price of admission (console+necessary accessories+games). I didn't buy my Xbox 1 until the controller S came out (the games were there at launch but I hated the controller), I didn't buy my PS2 until Gran Turismo 3, I didn't buy a Gamecube until Resident Evil 4. I bought both my Xbox 360 and Wii at their respective launches. I considered the Xbox 360 to be somewhat over priced, however hooking it up to my HDTV I needed ZERO accessories out of the box to get the gaming experince I was looking for, and it had a number of games I wanted, not just one or two: PGR3, Condemned, COD2, and DOA4. With 4 solid titles that I considered "need to have" games and all of the accessories I needed in the box (hd cables, headset, wireless controller) I bought it. The Wii only had Wii Sports and Zelda that I was interested in (though some titles like Trauma Center, Elebits, and Red Steel seemed worth a try as well), it also required me to purchase some $30 component cables, but the overall cost was still fairly low, which made it worth the price of admission. As of right now the PS3 has a net ZERO games that I have interest in playing, I'm sure Resistance is a decent game but nothing about it really excites me, the rest of the launch line up I either already have access to on the Xbox 360 or just doesn't look very fun. Not to mention the net cost is quite substantial... not just the price of the console but I'd also need to purchase some component video cables to connect it to my TV (since they're not included for whatever reason), as well as a bluetooth head-set for online play (which can also be fairly pricey).

Maybe I'll buy a PS3 down the road, but I don't buy things based on potential, I buy things based on what's tangible or within reach at the time of purchase. MGS4 might be a good game, maybe it wont be. I'm not going to spend $500+ now for the hopes and dreams that good games will eventually arrive. Many children have potential, even those of a proven pedigree... but not everyone gets to be an astronaut when they grow up.

What make the 360 better then the PS3? For me it is first and foremost TANGIBLE RESULTS. I have close to 20 games for the console already, some new classics that I'm sure to return to many years from now, I have an online system that is really good RIGHT NOW, as opposed to something that just shows promise. I have an achievement system that has let me get more replay ability and ultimately more enjoyment out of every title I own.... PS3 might have potential but I wont buy one until it's got something I can use.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[stikves]

Why is 360 better for developers?

I can't tell much. I'm not a game developer. But John Carmack did a recent interview and told why: summary here

I guess it means something.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[jam244]

games like Halo 3 and Lost Planet on the horizon for 2007

FYI, Lost Planet was released today.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[Guppy06]

"it's probably only a matter of time before Square-Enix gets antsy and starts to think about Final Fantasy 13 and other games appearing on the XBox 360 and Wii."

360, sure. But Final Fantasy has always been a showboat of pushing graphics and sound, which isn't the direction Wii is going. And with their focus continuing to be on Japan, the only thing that would make S-E shift FF from the PS3 to the 360 is if the 360 actually overtakes the PS3 in Japan.

DQX on the Wii? I'd put money on it. KH3? Maybe. But FFXIII? I wouldn't hold my breath.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[Guppy06]

"Heavenly Sword, MGS4 et al aren't even out yet."

Exactly. There's no point in getting a PS3 until then, is there?

"More studios are producing Bluray content than HDDVD."

More studios are producing DVD content than BluRay and HD-DVD combined. Currently, they'd have a bigger market if intsead it played DVDs but only in French.

So we have a game system for games that don't exist and a movie player that caters to a niche market. What's the point?

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[Rycross]

See, and here I buy consoles to play games, not sit around and imagine how cool those future games will be. Shows what I know.

Only one who comes off as a fanboy here is you.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[MeanderingMind]

That is really crazy.

You have to go down 15 titles before you find one for a non-Nintendo system. Many of those games in the Top 10 have been out for months! Animal Crossing has been out over a year and it hit #7! Brain Training is halfway into its second year and still hit #15!

I'm simply stunned. From the get go I thought Nintendo knew what they were doing. I was certain they would do well, but I don't think I ever imagined this kind of success.

Simply wow.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[thatguywhoiam]

The XBox 360 is a much, much better system already than the XBox ever was in terms of game library. Gears of War, 99 Nights, Quake 4, Enchanted Arms, Phantasy Star Online, Dead Rising and with games like Halo 3 and Lost Planet on the horizon for 2007, Sony faces a much tougher challenge. If Microsoft has already hit 10,000,000 units sold and is still climbing, as I suspect they are, it's probably only a matter of time before Square-Enix gets antsy and starts to think about Final Fantasy 13 and other games appearing on the XBox 360 and Wii.

Squeenix will never jump. But you may have a point. However its not like the PS3 is bereft of good looking releases either: Lair, Heavenly Blade, Motorstorm, and F1 Championship hit in March alone.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[FatherOfONe]

In short you will buy your PS3 this year if a few of the big names hit.

Then when you compare games like Madden (the number one selling game), and others for all your console, you will more than likely see the PS3 is a better game. Thus you will probably buy the PS3 versions of cross platform games and then the Sony dominance continues again.

The good news for you is that you may be able to get your PS3 cheaper than $500. My prediction is that by Q4 of this year they will be in the low $400 range. Sony just needs to finish the software emulation of the PS2 and PS1, then they can remove those chips from the PS3, thus being able to lower the price.

The other good news is that you will be able to watch BlueRay movies with the other six to ten million other people that will have a Blue Ray player.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[twistedsymphony]

In short you will buy your PS3 this year if a few of the big names hit.

Maybe, I don't care about "big names" so much as good games, they don't have to be a well known franchise. Condemned and Dead Rising are some of my favorite titles on the Xbox 360 so far and neither is part of any franchise. Basically I need games that will get me excited at the prospect of playing them. And with the price of the console there would need to be at least 5 or 6 of those titles before I would invest.

Then when you compare games like Madden (the number one selling game), and others for all your console, you will more than likely see the PS3 is a better game. Thus you will probably buy the PS3 versions of cross platform games and then the Sony dominance continues again.

That seems to be a popular "promise" but so far it hasn't really panned out. While I don't care for the Madden series I am a big Tony Hawk fan and the latest offering of that franchise is markedly superior on the Xbox 360 when compared to the PS3 version. Having played both the 360 simply looks better and has a really nice online mode, while the PS3 version has none. All things equal I'd still prefer the 360 version because I find the controller much more comfortable and I enjoy the achievement system as I mentioned earlier.

I've never like the Sony controllers, I find they can cramp my hand after long gaming sessions, I was excited when I saw the new boomerang design as it looked a whole lot more comfortable then the previous controllers and was quite disappointed when they went back to the old shape (though I'm probably in the minority in that regard). Similarly I was quite disappointed when Sony decided to no longer support the "entitlement" system they had announced as the achievement system on the 360 has grown to be one of my favorite features of that console.

The good news for you is that you may be able to get your PS3 cheaper than $500. My prediction is that by Q4 of this year they will be in the low $400 range. Sony just needs to finish the software emulation of the PS2 and PS1, then they can remove those chips from the PS3, thus being able to lower the price.

That would be a real treat, BC doesn't really matter to me all that much considering I have quite a collection of past and present consoles, however rendering old games in HD is quite nice and having that feature on the 360 has allowed me to enjoy several of my favorite older Xbox titles (though there are a few more that I wish they would support). That would be a big plus if the PS3 added that feature as I would much like to replay some of my favorite PS2 titles again but in HD. This, however, seems quite a ways off.

The other good news is that you will be able to watch BlueRay movies with the other six to ten million other people that will have a Blue Ray player.

Unfortunately this is a negative for me. I don't like either "next gen" disc format as I'm annoyed with the large amounts of DRM that's been implemented.

Re:Sony faces a formidible challenge this time

[FatherOfONe]

"That seems to be a popular "promise" but so far it hasn't really panned out. While I don't care for the Madden series I am a big Tony Hawk fan and the latest offering of that franchise is markedly superior on the Xbox 360 when compared to the PS3 version. Having played both the 360 simply looks better and has a really nice online mode, while the PS3 version has none. All things equal I'd still prefer the 360 version because I find the controller much more comfortable and I enjoy the achievement system as I mentioned earlier. "

Yep, that is too be expected with a first gen PS3 game and a second gen 360 game. But given the hardware difference between the two consoles one can conclude that the PS3 version could be done better. Just the fact that every PS3 has a HD alone could make streaming of levels somewhat possible in games like Tony Hawk. Now another difference is the soundtracks and levels, heck with a 9GB limit on the DVD that could be HUGE compared to 25GB or even 50GB (DL-BRDVD). As far as you not liking the controller, I would imagine there will be plenty of 3rd party controllers out there, but I am somewhat shocked that you like the 360 controller, but again that is personal preference. I like quiet systems, or more specifically near silent systems. To me this is huge because the system is right next to me when I play.

Unfortunately this is a negative for me. I don't like either "next gen" disc format as I'm annoyed with the large amounts of DRM that's been implemented."

This is good and bad news for you then. The good news is that you will have the system that will be the clear winner in the format war and thus have something similar to your DVD's of today but with more storage. The bad news is that DRM is here to stay, and even Microsoft appears to LOVE it. You and I totally agree on DRM, but the content providers are kind of sick and tired of all the stealing going on and they are serious about trying to stop it. The good news is that for honest people like you and myself this won't really effect us that much.

On that note, I fully expect games to go to a download and pay method to get around all this piracy out there. Games like Everquest and WoW prove that this model works well and I fully expect to see more games like Tekken 5 released. It will be a download only game.

Sounds like world of warcraft got boring in 2006?

[guysmilee]

Sounds like world of warcraft got boring in 2006?

Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were online

[Anonymous Coward]

retailers. For instance, amazon.com it seems got screwed when it came to its wii allotment. I can't find one online retailer that is selling either the wii or ps3 at retail(the ones above retail are "used" for instance on amazon). It seems like both Sony and Nintendo passed them up to go with brick and mortar stores.

Re:What you mean ...

[Duds]

Well that's just the thing, Sony DIDN'T sell all their PS3s. It's quite trivial to get on in the US now.

The real news - PS2 sales

[RichPowers]

The PlayStation 2 sold 1.4 million units in December. The PS2 has a great library of games (many of them discounted) and there are still plenty of new releases to look forward to (Rogue Galaxy comes to mind). The Interweb is full of all these geek debates about PS3 vs. Wii (and they are fun, don't get me wrong), but the PS2's success is do, in part, to its vast game selection. That, IMHO, will always be more important than tech specs. Hopefully, though, the new consoles will have a more robust game selection in the coming months.

Re:The real news - PS2 sales

[Anonymous Coward]

The PlayStation 2 sold 1.4 million units in December. The PS2 has a great library of games (many of them discounted) and there are still plenty of new releases to look forward to (Rogue Galaxy comes to mind). The Interweb is full of all these geek debates about PS3 vs. Wii (and they are fun, don't get me wrong), but the PS2's success is do, in part, to its vast game selection. That, IMHO, will always be more important than tech specs. Hopefully, though, the new consoles will have a more robust game selection in the coming months.

This may sound unconventional, but a friend of mine suggested in October that the PS3 was going to 'fail' in this generation mainly because of how popular the PS2 still is. His thought was that everyone who owned a XBox or Gamecube would likely be looking to upgrade their system over the next 12 months (or so) because their existing system has no games being released for it, whereas PS2 owners will feel perfectly comfortable sticking with their PS2 because it has the most high quality games being released for it; a large portion of the PS3's potential userbase will wait out the current price and lack of quality games because there is no pressure to upgrade.

Basically, he thinks that after the Gamecube and XBox fans buy Wii and XBox 360 systems these systems will have such a lead in sales that developers will be focusing their efforts on these systems and ignoring the PS3; thus as people start upgrading their PS2 they will (likely) choose one of the other systems because it will have a larger library of high quality games.

Re:The real news - PS2 sales

[Thansal]

Your friend is only partialy correct. The blatent fanboys (who will refuse to switch companies) might stick with the PS2 over the PS3, and will upgrade theri system or the other 2.

The problem is that the large majority of gamers are not fanboys (they are the quite majority because the raving loony fanboys are the VERY vocal minority).

I am a Nintendo fanboy (though not a raving loony) and will thus be gettign a Wii, however I am also looking to pick up a PS2 this time around (I have been rather broke for the past few years, but have recently gained a decent paying job) because of all the thigns your friend said. A HUGE number of top rate games, many of them discounted (either via the "Classics" system or used), and some new games STILL being developed! (hell, the line up of games being released from the holiday season through this year is BETTER on the PS2 then on the PS3).

Re:Sounds like world of warcraft got boring in 200

[MooseMuffin]

Well, they did reach the 8 million subscriber mark http://www.blizzard.com/press/070111.shtml and have their first expansion coming out next week, which a good percent of those 8 mil will buy. I imagine Blizzard is fairly comfortable with their financial situation right now.

Re:What you mean ...

[gravesb]

Its not really fair to make any comparison right now. Until all produces can ship to meet or exceed demand, its impossible to make any kind of accurate comparison. Also, initial success doesn't necessarily mean long term success. The WII may appeal to people now because its unique, but it has to show that its control scheme is more than just a gimmick to hold onto its appeal. I certainly hope that it does, as it would encourage more innovation in general, but its far to early to crown a champion, or even a leader, at this point. Wait until at least next Jan, if not the year after that.

Re:What you mean ...

[ipooptoomuch]

It's okay because as soon as they realize it Bill Gates will be like "OH $%*#, QUICK, SHOVE 10 BILLION DOLLARS INTO IT" Xbox 360's will be $300 and all will be well :D.

Damning with faint praise?

[Anonymous Coward]

The XBox 360 is a much, much better system already than the XBox ever was in terms of game library.

Uh... well, yeah. And a PS3 costs less than the Cullinan diamond.

Re:What you mean ...

[Thansal]

ummm

Disclaimer: I am a nintendo Fan, however I will try to stay unbiased.

1.1Mill Xboxen sold in Dec (just dec, remember, both the PS3 and Wii were launched in Nov) says that they trounced the PS3. However (yes, you can see the glee in this Nintendo fanboy's eyes) the Wii is giving the 360 a run for its money with 1.1mill units sold in Nov/Dec.

Also that says the Wii's launch sales trounce the 360's, however you do have to remember that the 360 had a HORRIBLE launch when it came to product avalability, where the Wii is having an abundance of production (though they still sell out).

My prediciton?
Unless Sony pulls their act together (gets some GREAT games out FAST), it is goign to be a running war between the 360 and the Wii. Also I am willing to bet we will see Wii on shelves faster then we did for the 360, but simply b/c their production is going much better then the 360 did at launch.

Re:What you mean ...

[Shiptar]

I think the point was that Sony has already shipped to meet demand. That's why PS3s are sitting on store shelves.

Which is kind of silly, because as of last night there were a plethora of sub $600 PS3's with receipts for sale on ebay. Some for like 500 bucks. Not a bad deal.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[Anonymous Coward]

Easy, because online allotments don't make for crowds and lines and tickets and general mayhem which yeilds free publicity on the local news stations. Nintendo wasn't going to let Sony get all the free publicity due to their poor production rates.

I blame this on the pirates

[pipatron]

Always those pirates destroying for the industry! If there wouldn't have been all these pirates that downloaded all the games and broke the DRM on all the consoles, the industry wouldn't have this loss!

Oh wait.. "Record breaking" you say? Well, without the pirates they would have broken the record even better!

Re:I blame this on the pirates

[Thanatos69]

They will spin it into a great win for DRM, if it weren't for DRM there never would have been a record.....

Re:I blame this on the pirates

[acomj]

http://www.plocp.com/images/vista_MG_3800.jpg

seeing as ps2 games where going for 200->300 peso (2-3$)in mexico right next to the PC software, I'd say piracy is alive and well.

I had my doubts but after traveling abroad a lot this year (armenia and central america), I'd say piracy is actually a more significant concern than I'd previously though.

Re:What you mean ...

[Frostclaw]

Funny, while I was hunting down a Wii before Christmas I found DOZENS of PS3's in the city (Saint John, NB, Canada) and that trend still continues. I finally stumbled on a Wii a week after the new year, and have yet to see one since.

Re:What you mean ...

[MooseMuffin]

You realize that by outselling the Wii in both months since it has been available, the 360 has a larger raw numerical lead now than it did before the Wii came out.

This misses subscription services such as WoW?

[Hays]

World of Warcraft has 8million players. If they all pay 15 dollars a month (and I don't know that they do, because I don't know the fees in other countries) then that's 1.44 Billion dollars.

I'm not sure I see any PC games in the lists in the article, actually.

Re:This misses subscription services such as WoW?

[AliasTheRoot]

WoW has 8 million players true, but around half of them are in AsiaPac where the pricing model is completely different. We also don't know whether the 8 million figures are active subs or not. I personally have 2 accounts that have lapsed, do those count towards the 8 mill or not?

Re:This misses subscription services such as WoW?

[AliasTheRoot]

Meh didn't read the press release, they count only active subs. I'll be one of those reactivating my account soon with the release of BC. I guess those subs figures will surge a fair bit - availability of the expansion is going to be interesting.

Re:This misses subscription services such as WoW?

[jfodale]

Even if only 2 million of those subscribers were paying the $15/month model, they are still making plenty of money to appear on this list somewhere. Does the "games industry" no longer include PC games?

Re:This misses subscription services such as WoW?

[Hays]

Even if only 2 million of those subscribers were paying the $15/month model, they are still making plenty of money to appear on this list somewhere. Does the "games industry" no longer include PC games?

Exactly what I was wondering. Pretty sad if true.

Re:This misses subscription services such as WoW?

[Archie Gremlin]

The numbers in TFA do not include "sales of PC games, PC game subscriptions, or downloaded content" and only apply to the US market.

I've found it surprisingly hard to find estimates for the size of the PC games market or figures for what PC games sell well. This makes it more or less impossible to compare the PC and console markets. I'm beginning to wonder whether why.

cheers,
Archie

Re:This misses subscription services such as WoW?

[autocrawler]

I'm not sure I see any PC games in the lists in the article, actually. As I understand, NPD will make a serperate press release for that. All the information I can add on this is that in the UK, ELSPA announced that the PC game market increased its sales by 7% from last year, stopping the constant decline of the past years.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[ThomsonsPier]

amazon.com it seems got screwed when it came to its wii allotment.

Ah, there you go, then. They need to get them from Nintendo, not try to grow them on an allotment.

I'm a Mac head and Windows hater, but

[Quiet_Desperation]

they've done a nice job on the X360. The online stuff is trouble free and the games have been good. I'm *still* mucking about with Oblivion. It's nice to finally have downloadable content for consoles.

Re:What you mean ...

[gravesb]

Very good point, but it talks about some of the error in numbers. I wonder where those errors come from, and if the scarcity is artificially limited. Also, all three have features that haven't really caught on, such as Blu-Ray movies for the PS3, the full library of classic games for the WII, and Halo 3 for the Xbox360. There is still too many unknowns to make a decent prediction.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[MirthScout]

I don't know about PS3s since I see them in stores everywhere but...

I can't detect any unfairness in allocation of Wii consoles since they are equally hard to find at brick and mortar stores as they are hard to find online. I'd been trying to find a Wii console since mid-December and finally got one locally at Circuit City only because I used http://www.itrackr.com/ to notify me when some arrived (they were sold out again in less than 2 hours; probably less than 10 units).

Re:Sounds like world of warcraft got boring in 200

[Anonymous Coward]

FWIW, assuming 7 million people are still playing WoW, at the cheapest you can pay per month (~$12), Blizzard made over $1,000,000,000 on subscriptions alone. This doesn't include new people purchasing the game, paying for transfers, etc. Yeah I would say they had a successful 2006...

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[Thansal]

Here yah go

PS3 for $599.99

ATM no one seems to have the Wii instock (a few places had them as late as yesterday, but only game bundles).

If you are tryign to track down systems then:
buy wii, from techbargains
buy PS3, from techbargains
Wii Tracker
PS3 Finder (same people as wii tracker)

enjoy.

Wii and PS3 sold a lot of XB360s in December

[dtjohnson]

A lot of people bought xb360 in December because there were no wii or ps3 systems to buy and they got ticked off and bought an xb360 just to get a nextgen console. Even today, there are no wii or ps3 systems in most places. And don't even think about buying accessories like a second wiimote.

Re:Wii and PS3 sold a lot of XB360s in December

[CK2004PA]

That's like saying a lot of people bought PS2's because they couldn't find Dreamcasts for sale anywhere. I doubt people "settled" for a $500 Xbox, +$60 for Gears, +45 for extra controller +$15 for recharge pack. They probably just kept looking for a Wii if they really wanted one. I didn't , I wanted an Xbox especially after I saw what it could do. Also, I've seen the PS3 in action, its online "service" doesn't even exist. Are they kidding ? Maybe they will get a few bones on decent games but thats about it. The Wii is fun also, but not for serious gaming or anything online related.

Re:Wii and PS3 sold a lot of XB360s in December

[drinkypoo]

That's like saying a lot of people bought PS2's because they couldn't find Dreamcasts for sale anywhere. I doubt people "settled" for a $500 Xbox, +$60 for Gears, +45 for extra controller +$15 for recharge pack.

Then you're wrong. I don't know what the numbers are like but tons of people have come to provide us anecdotes about how they or someone they knew did just that. While the plural of anecdote is not data, at some point the numbers become compelling.

Re:Wii and PS3 sold a lot of XB360s in December

[Opie812]

I doubt people "settled" for a $500 Xbox, +$60 for Gears, +45 for extra controller +$15 for recharge pack

I almost did. I wanted either a PS3 or a wii and couldn't find either so I almost bought an XBOX360 because I was tired of looking and wanted something NOW.

I'm not sure what that says about me, nor do I know why I feel it necessary to relay this piece of info. Such is life, I suppose.

Re:Wii and PS3 sold a lot of XB360s in December

[Opie812]

curse you endtags! You are the bane of my existence.

(I'm just joking around, don't give me some CS reasoning as to why they're necessary and good practise. I know all that)

Re:Wii and PS3 sold a lot of XB360s in December

[CK2004PA]

Then you're wrong. I don't know what the numbers are like but tons of people have come to provide us anecdotes about how they or someone they knew did just that. While the plural of anecdote is not data, at some point the numbers become compelling. Data ? 10 million 360's, 4 million Wii's and 1 million PS3's. That's data.
But I'll bite, pretend I am wrong. In that case Xbox 360 STILL wins. They now have 10m to 4m over Wii, and 600k for PS3 (or is that 1m?). Studios see those numbers and then code for the 360, and the previously "Sony only" titles will become Xbox titles also. See how it works ? When you sell more units you get more games and people keep buying your console. The Wii is a fun too, people will probably have it AND either the 360 or PS3 (looking into the next 18 month crystal ball).
As for the PS3 ? The lack of developer love, HD-DVD now winning over Blueray, and now 10:1 market adoption of 360 over the PS3, the PS3 is the biggest loser, no doubt. Oh, plus the Wii is cheap, that helps. A lot.

Re:Wii and PS3 sold a lot of XB360s in December

[CK2004PA]

Oh and I forgot one more thing, you are both wrong for another reason. The PS3 was easy to find before Christmas and after (had about a 2 week run for you fanboys), so why "settle" for the 360 ? See? You lose again. Nice try though!
(I'll give you the Wii, but someone looking to spend $250 and dropping $500+++ is not a reasonable assumption, unless they are a big gamer, in which case they had a 360 already).

Is it just me?

[silentounce]

Someone a little trigger happy on the topic selection? I'd rather not have icons over the first comment when I'm trying to read it. Where can I mod the topic as -1 Redundant?

The real race starts

[shirizaki]

Initial release is nothing but the adrenaline rush. It's now up to developers to make quality games that take proper advantage of the hardware and for the hardware people to keep up production quality.

To that effect, if the Wii doesn't get unique games (instead of the same games on other systems with enhanced controlling schemes), the Wii might end up being the loser. Waving a remote might sound awesome for the next few months, but then people will realize that other games treat the Wii as a gimmick instead of a real console.

Microsoft has to ensure proper Live maintenance, and try to bring the price down. If either the PS3 or Wii picks up online steam, people will question their $50 a year charge just to play online. MS might just try to float with just Halo 3 as it's flagship, but there might just be a point and time when FPS gets tiring. Then what's left?

Sony has their work cut out for them. Thankfully, I don't hear about consoles keeling over, so they got 1 thing right this launch with no consoles just dying. Now they just need to work on their online segemnt, especially if their deal with xfire leads to a centralized friends list like xbox live:http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/316.html. All of the perks of Live witht he fee of free might just have people eat the $500-$600 price tag. Now it's just getting developers to make awesome games for the PS3.

i think we're seeing the death of mass 3rd party console exclusives. Some companies (Capcom) might stay exclusive for a few franchises, but I thnk alot of developers will be multiplatform publishers. The real winner in this generation? Us. Anytime there's heated competition there's been great games (SNESGenesis, PS2Xbox)

Re:The real race starts

[Thansal]

You hit so many perfect poins about what we have to watch for in the comming year(s).

I fully am with you about On-Line being the real make/break for the systems this time around.

MS has Live down pat, and if it wasn't for the charge (Even though $50 a year isn't THAT bad), I would very likely pick up a 360. They fixed up the system, they have live workign off the bat, they are courting developers and starting to get soem great lookign titles going (that was the killer on the xbox, no good games). They even have realized they need some J-RPGs (and boy have they scored with their first coupple steps into the field). They are still churning out their standard Action games with good online play (hey, it is what they are known for, currently).

Sony still seems to be ignoring On-Line, have lost alot of their exclusives, and alienated alot of devs and players. If they pull together with XFire (especialy if it is linked wither their existing XFire System), and start gettign some good online content going they should be able to pull through. The key ofcourse is that they REALLY need to get Developers back on board, if they don't, well they are dead in the water with a serious lack of games.

Nintendo I am a bit more optomistic about (though I have my wories). They know that online is VERY important. They are already familiar with the field via the NDS WiFi network, and the VC store is already doing great. They already have some great games out and more on the way (including some that look like they could do well in the online field). They need to start gettign a few online games out there, especialy some mass apeal ones (yah, sure, pokemon will sell well, but they need something for older players). I think their best bet for a "Killer App" is Smash Bros. Every one is waiting for it, and an online Smash Bros would be awsome in many people's minds. The other side of the problem is that they NEED to drop the friends code system as well as let you actualy chat with other players. If they don't fix up those 2 issues I could see their online offering (and thus a key point to the next-gen wars) fallign flat for them.

yah, umm, my 2 cents.

The X360 is attractring the critical RPG element

[Quiet_Desperation]

I bought an X360 initially for Oblivion, and wound up also buying my first FPS (Prey) in many years, but I'm still a big RPG/platformer head. The outlook for RPGs on the X360 is really quite good. More than a few of us RPG fans would like to see the FF series go cross platform. If Blue Dragon, with its FF based pedigree, does well on the X360, Square-Enix will have to factor that in. From what I have read Blue Dragon has single handedly sold a hefty number of X360s in *Japan*.

10 million worldwide?

[Daetrin]

Don't feel too bad for Microsoft, though. They sold 1.1 Million 360s in December. The article points out this means Microsoft met its '10 Million in sales' goal for the end of 2006

According to these NPD numbers Microsoft has sold a cumulative total of 4.5 million 360s in the US. So if they've hit 10 million they must have sold 5.5 million in the rest of the world. They've sold 200k in Japan so that would mean 5.3 million split between Europe, Australia and other smaller markets. I had the impression that the US was by far and away Microsoft's strongest market, is there some factor i'm not considering?

Re:10 million worldwide?

[pnattress]

The complete lack of PS3s in Europe over Christmas and for the foreseeable future?

2 million Super Mario Bros.

[jimbob666]

2 Million New Super Mario Bros. sales on DS speaks volumes. Games don't need to be over complicated and cost $ millions to produce. Keep it simple yet very playable!

Re:What you mean ...

[Anonymous Coward]

As Wii production increases it should catch up with the 360. A good chunk of the 360's holiday sales were simply because it was easier to find than the Wii or PS3 so people used it as a substitute.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[TheThiefMaster]

Well I bought 2 wiis (one for someone else), one not much before Christmas by ringing a store exactly as the delivery arrived and then getting there in time, and one on amazon.co.uk on December 22nd which was delivered on December 23rd (yes, the Saturday before Christmas).

I don't see what people are complaining about, I had no trouble getting any before Christmas, and I didn't pre-order either. I guess you just need to know where to look and be lucky. Though both wii play and extra nunchuks were sold out at the time.

The "console wars" fiasco

[Lisandro]

Sheeze, can we put this to rest already? It seems that, for the last couple of console generations, all that people care about is who won and who lost. Number of shipped consoles vs. sold ones, launch date numbers, millons invested in advertising, etc. Nevermind the endless drooling over polygons per seconds, CPUs, memory controllers and the works. People live and die by these numbers, claiming that company X is the winner of this generation while company Y is in the brink of bankruptcy.

Come on guys. I can understand (barely) this kind of insaness from fanboy sites, but please, can we move forward? If you like consoles, why do you care beyond which one is more fun to play, or has more games that appeal to you? Do we really have to get into the pissing contest of which one sold an extra 10 units this month? I mean, is it relevant? Is it even interesting? If you like consoles, you have not one, nor two, but three excellent options to chose from, and that's it. I'd like to see more discussion about games rather than units shipped, Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD or whatever is trendy this week.

Re:The "console wars" fiasco

[ZombieRoboNinja]

Maybe if you have $1300 lying around to spend on all three consoles, it doesn't matter to you which one wins. Those of us with a limited gaming budget are very much interested in which console will end up being super-popular and having a huge host of third-party titles to choose from, and which will rot on the shelves and consequently end up in the bargain bin next to the Dreamcasts in six months.

Re:The "console wars" fiasco

[Lisandro]

Which has nothing to do with units shipped, launch sales, hardware specs and assorted crap. If you want to know which console will be "super popular", wait until the next-next gen consoles are released and pick the one that did the best in the previous one for $50. That's the only sure way.

Re:The "console wars" fiasco

[ShadowsHawk]

Very true, that is the best way to get the most popular console. For those that want to get a good idea of which will carry the most games, the listed information is important. It's not important to you or I, but it is to them. Personally, I'd like to see an interview with Bethesda to find out where the hell Fallout 3 is!

Re:The "console wars" fiasco

[JFMulder]

People need to see these numbers because seeing that a huge portion of the market bought into the same thing as them makes them feel safe about their purchase.

I bought a 360 and I'm happy to see Microsoft have a huge lead on Sony right now becaus this means that over time Japanese are going to develop more for the 360 and I'll be able to have nice japanese RPGs or 'Ninja Gaiden's next to the 'Gears Of War's, 'Halo's and 'Elder Scroll's made by the rest of the world.

Re:The "console wars" fiasco

[flitty]

One anecdote to demonstrate why people Care.. My Friend: "dude, i just bought a dreamcast today! the graphics are sweet and it's so much fun!" Me: "Didn't you hear they aren't gonna make those anymore, or any games for it from now on? They announced it last week." My Friend: "$&#^!!!"

Re:The "console wars" fiasco

[xenocide2]

Just a theory, but perhaps fanboys recognize that a console is a long term investment, and that developers follow the money.

Following from this, they're also interested to hear how well their investment is doing, and how likely unanticipated games are to arrive in the future. Examples: nobody would have suspected RE4 would have been released on the gamecube, but not only was it, but it was also an exclusive for something like 8 months. Another one is the repeated rumor of MGS4 being moved from ps3 to 360.

Re:The "console wars" fiasco

[captain_cthulhu]

If you like consoles, why do you care beyond which one is more fun to play, or has more games that appeal to you?

it's important if you consider your purchase as an investment - albeit an investment in fun. For example, if I went out and purchased a PS3 for $600 without considering it's marketshare, supply, demand, price, future support, etc... then what happens if MS and Nintendo trounce Sony and force them out of the game? I'm out $600, that's what.

I would love to own a PS3 but I am not going to buy one until the whole HDDVD Vs. Blu-ray war is decided. If HDDVD is chosen as the standard, the price of the PS3 will instantly be cut in half [guessing]. Even with the betamax albatross around its neck, the PS3 is still a good deal at $200-$300.

The war

[Anonymous Coward]

Well its great to see companies fighting for our dollar does keep the price low. But when you say whos winning the war its sony, Its that bloody PS2 they made it just keeps selling and selling and game well companies have not stopped making games for it...

Its sony true ace in the pocket till the Ps3 production ramps up and better games come out.

But Nintendo is doing great, and once their online archive gets sized up its gonna be Mint.

I look forward to seeing how this Year unfolds

and the 360... meh its their, in its own little world.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[Thansal]

Wait, Wii Play is out in the UK? DAMN YOU!!!! (If you have gotten a copy of it, how is it?)

However you are right. If you REALLY want a Wii it isn't that hard, just requires persistance. One of the easiest ways is to find out when a store is gettign a shipment and camp the fark out (I have 3 friends that did this, and thus have 3 Wiis). I am to lazy to do this and thus still have no Wii, however I am patient and will simply buy them once they are redaliy avaliable (I predict a month or 2). Admitedly, if I get lucky and get a chance to buy one I will ofcourse snap it up in an instant.

Re:What you mean ...

[Chris Burke]

Okay, put down the Sony-brand crack pipe which only smokes Sony-brand proprietary crack.

If what you're after is marketshare, then selling out is irrelevent if the number of units you sold was not enough to get you the marketshare you needed. If I had one Burke-brand computer to sell, and someone bought it, could I claim Dell, who still has ample supplies, was losing to my hot seller?

Microsoft selling 1.1 million units without selling out is a good thing, as it means their production is ample and there is still strong demand for the console. At over 10mil units sold, they have a substantial lead in the console wars, giving them all-important momentum. There is no rational way to say that Microsoft isn't winning right now.

Wii had decent production, but the fact that they sold 1.1 million consoles and were sold out is a bad thing, as it means more people wanted to buy the Wii but couldn't, artificially limiting their market share. Each console they produce now is going to satisfy the backlog -- I have a couple family members whose Christmas present was "the promise of a Wii when we can get one". While this means in the longer term they have decent potential marketshare, they're still stuck way behind Microsoft and they are not going to be able to catch up any time soon as production continues to limit sales. Though at least they sold more than Sony.

Sony had terrible production, and sold fewer consoles than everyone else. Being sold out is a bad thing as they are now in 3rd place. Unless their production suddenly shifts into impossible-mega-drive to make up the extra 500,000 units they didn't have to sell this Christmas, their position in 3rd place is solidified through most of 2007. The worst news for Sony, though, is the reports that they aren't sold out any longer and PS3s are sitting on shelves, meaning there weren't enough "we'll buy one as soon as it becomes available" to take up the new production and help them make up lost ground. There could be a lot of reasons -- though only Sony-brand crack could make you believe that price wasn't a major one -- but if this trend continues and Sony doesn't do something, then you're looking at the loser of this generation. Certainly, as of right now, they are behind.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[damiangerous]

Circuit City had Wiis in stock this morning briefly online. They also had them in store, the one nearest me was showing as available for about an hour.

Re:Sounds like world of warcraft got boring in 200

[jfodale]

I imagine Blizzard is fairly comfortable with their financial situation for the next 10 years.

I buy all consoles ...

[Anonymous Coward]

... so if I have a bias (and I'm sure that I do), then it's not a very large one.

The way I see it is this: if there are no Wiis nor PS3s on the shelves (and they've both been out of stock every time that I've popped into any of the towns around here), then there is only one new-gen console that people can easily buy, and that's the 360.

For being able to maintain such good stock levels throughout Xmas, MS deserves congratulations.

But on the other hand, this also means that they cannot claim that they sold their large number of 360s on pure merit. If the other two consoles had also been well stocked, MS's sales figures would undoubtedly have been substantially smaller.

Re:What you mean ...

[CaffCoder]

Thats nonsense. The 360 has been out longer. Its a proven console, and it has a larger market penetration (more consoles in homes than the wii or the ps3). Knowing this as a game dev or publisher you can see there is very little risk to doing a title on the 360. And there are lots of good titles on the 360 currently whereas on the ps3 for instance I haven't seen anything worth shaking a 650$ stick at. Plus if you own the 360 and another console you might be more inclined to get the 360 version because you can earn achievment points.

I wouldnt say they are loosing the console war I'd say they are slowly gaining ground against nearly everyone who thinks they should just fail.

I'm not a huge MS fanboy I'm just stating the facts as I see em.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[TheThiefMaster]

Wii Play: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Wii-Play-Wiimote-controlle r/dp/B000INYT0G/sr=8-1/qid=1168620977/ref=pd_ka_1/ 202-6446174-2571802?ie=UTF8&s=videogames

Availability: In Stock

There's a great review covering all the games on wii play on there too.

Microsoft purchases Capcom?

[revelous]

Maybe just a rumor at this point...but it would be a very smart move.

No, they lost 'new console launches'

[Chris Burke]

Measured in each of the three consoles' respective launch windows, the Wii sold more than any of the others, as in they had the best launch. The game spot article titled "Wii tops new console launches" makes this clear.

Of course all of them were production limited initially, so all this by itself really means is that Nintendo had the best pre-launch manufacturing story. Now I guarantee you this wasn't an accident, and manufacturability was a major consideration in the Wii's design. Still it doesn't tell the story of right now, which is that the 360 is way ahead, thanks to the whole year they had to fix their production problems and sell consoles with no next-gen competition.

Speaking of, I am once again boggled at the Sony fanbois who use the PS1 and PS2 as proof that PS3 will dominate Nintendo and MS, but forget about that all-important year lead time PS1 had on N64 and PS2 had on Xbox and GC. Now the shoe is on the other foot and Sony is starting this generation as the marketshare underdog.

The race has only begun.

[Crasty]

Another system that sold just over 10 million units... Sega Dreamcast. So 10 million hardly makes you a winner. Sony's numbers are artificially inflated by the ebay factor. Yes they sold the systems, but they also were not all sold to end users. Sony is not doing as well as it would like you to believe, and people generally aren't going to warm up to spending $600 for a console once the "wow it's new" factor is gone. X360 has the best base, and Nintendo is doing quite well. It's safe to say businesswise, Sony has already put itself in a big hole this round. However if PS3 does make Blu-ray the medium of choice, it will have been worth it in the end.

Re:What you mean ...

[toolie]

Also that says the Wii's launch sales trounce the 360's, however you do have to remember that the 360 had a HORRIBLE launch when it came to product avalability, where the Wii is having an abundance of production (though they still sell out).

You have a seriously dicked up definition of abundance when you claim the Wii has an abundance of production when it doesn't even match the demand.

Re:What you mean ...

[MeanderingMind]

Assuming $600 is trivial.

if what you're after is marketshare...

[brokeninside]

Sony and Nintendo are both trouncing Microsoft. Sales of the XBOX 360 a year after launch are lower than sales of both the PS/2 and the Nintendo DS for December. If marketshare is your metric, Microsoft is in a distant third place in the video game market.

Aside from which, it isn't really honest to compare sales of a console one year into it's lifespan to to sales of consoles out for less than three months. Contrary to your assessment, not being able to keep up with demand in and of itself is neither good nor bad. It /can/ be bad if consumers are so frustrated that they /exclusively/ turn to substitutes. But so long as the consumers are not frustrated to the point where they never buy the console, that demand is not presently being met is neither here nor there. At most, from a free market perspective, it tells you that Sony and Nintendo aren't pricing the console high enough. Nintendo could have doubled or trebled their profit if they took this into account and announced that it will ship originally for 600, go down to 400 in january and go down to 250 in february where it will remain.

Also, momentum is less than it's cracked up to be. The Sega Dreamcase sold 300k units on pre-order and an additional 500k within the first two weeks of launch. It continued to build up momentum even after the release of the PS/2 and Gamecube, only starting to drop off once Sony and Nintendo ironed out production issues and could meet demand.

Once late spring and early summer roll around then we'll start to get far enough into the life cycles of the next generation consoles to start making useful comparissons. Once January 2008 rolls around and we can compare Christmas season numbers, then we'll have an even better picture.

Re:if what you're after is marketshare...

[Chris Burke]

If marketshare is your metric, Microsoft is in a distant third place in the video game market.

Point taken, but we're clearing discussing next-gen console video game market share, not video game market share in general (which would also include Windows as a game platform with a lot of marketshare, but again not relevent to this discussion).

Contrary to your assessment, not being able to keep up with demand in and of itself is neither good nor bad. It /can/ be bad if consumers are so frustrated that they /exclusively/ turn to substitutes. But so long as the consumers are not frustrated to the point where they never buy the console, that demand is not presently being met is neither here nor there.

And what do you think will happen when over the months the marketshare remains constrained and thus the potential market for game sales is reduced and game developers switch formerly exclusive titles over to other consoles with better sales potential, exclusives that may have been the reason why someone was waiting to buy that console over another? There is a reason why market share numbers are considered important in console gaming -- they help determine what console is most attractive to developers, and thus what console is most attractive to consumers, which then feeds back into developer decisions, and so on. You better believe people will jump ship to another console, anything other belief is just unrealistic.

At most, from a free market perspective, it tells you that Sony and Nintendo aren't pricing the console high enough. Nintendo could have doubled or trebled their profit if they took this into account and announced that it will ship originally for 600, go down to 400 in january and go down to 250 in february where it will remain.

You are combining Sony-brand crack and Super Smack Brothers in dangerous ways if you think Nintendo would have posted anything remotely like their current sales numbers at $600, or even $400. Demand would have dropped much more rapidly than an increase in price, in large part because it is the Wii's low price point that justifies it's weaker graphics and the inherent risk of trying a completely new control style. So much more so if they had actually announced that they intended to drop the price by $350 in just a few months. Companies usually keep price cuts a secret since if known they will impact sales at the current price. Instead of not being able to find any, Wiis would be sitting unmolested on the shelves until February.

Sony might have been able to charge a little more, since anyone able to swallow $600 could probably swallow $650, but even then you would see a drastic drop off in sales had they gone any higher. Sony is in bad enough shape being production-limited at ~700k units; reducing their marketshare even further by raising the price would have been a terrible idea even for Sony.

Also, momentum is less than it's cracked up to be. The Sega Dreamcase sold 300k units on pre-order and an additional 500k within the first two weeks of launch. It continued to build up momentum even after the release of the PS/2 and Gamecube, only starting to drop off once Sony and Nintendo ironed out production issues and could meet demand.

Um, no. The Dreamcast was discontinued six months before the GC was released, and was basically dead well before that as developers were fleeing the console and sales were sluggish, the PS2 launch having taken all the wind out of its sails. Try the WP to catch up on some of your console history.

If your point is that momentum is not determinant then fine, as I said MS is winning, not that they've won. However saying momentum isn't that important by bringing up Sega, I think you should revise your point to say that it is possible to fail despite having excellent momentum if you screw up often enough and badly enough. Saturn, Se

Re:What you mean ...

[MeanderingMind]

Actually, I think his definition is fine.

If he was claiming there was an abundance if Wii's available, that would be one thing. However, he's claiming there is an abundance of production. Nintendo's production rate appears to be approximately 1 million a month, which is quite abundant. How quickly that abundance of production is eaten up or demanded only affects the abundance of the Wii itself, and not of its production.

Re:What you mean ...

[MeanderingMind]

In North America.

The 360 went from ~8 million worldwide to ~10 million worldwide in the period following the launch. Nintendo went from 0 to ~4 million worldwide. If the 2:1 ratio and current sales rate continue, we'll see Nintendo as the worldwide leader before long.

Re:What you mean ...

[krakelohm]

Well that's just the thing, Sony DIDN'T sell all their PS3s. It's quite trivial to get on in the US now. In 2006 Sony was selling all their PS3's.

Re:What you mean ...

[Anonymous Coward]

Sony had terrible production, and sold fewer consoles than everyone else. Being sold out is a bad thing as they are now in 3rd place.

Don't feel bad for Sony, then, because they weren't sold out. There are plenty of PS3s available right now. I've gone looking for a store with a Wii, and in all the cases where it's come up, the stores had PS3s available but not Wiis.

Full disclosure here is that, as many people know, most game stores display empty boxes. In the cases where the actual console boxes where in a display case, there were PS3s but no Wiis. In several cases when asked about the Wii, the salesperson would mention that they had PS3s available. So I can't say in absolute terms that every store I went to had PS3s but no Wiis. But I can say that, if I wanted a PS3, I know several places I could get one. I know nowhere I can get a Wii.

Sony may have sold out at launch, but by mid-December, they were able to meet demand. Which, of course, is actually worse for Sony, because that means that the meager PS3 sales don't represent production problems, they represent actual demand for the console.

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[Pollardito]

I can't find one online retailer that is selling either the wii or ps3 at retail that's because you blinked, Amazon sold out of their first allotment in like 15 seconds? online retailers made out like bandits, it wasn't brick-and-mortar stores that were requiring buyers to pay for huge bundles to get the console (huge bundles = guaranteed sales on games, mandatory purchase of marked up nintendo-branded memory cards, console replacement plans)

Re:What you mean ...

[MeanderingMind]

I think a lot of people laughed at Bill Gates when he claimed Microsoft was winning the console war. While what he said is rather hard to argue against, it seems rather premature to claim victory when the race has really just started.

However, it has been noted time and time again that while the Wii can coexist with the 360, the PS3, or both the same can not readily be said of the 360 and the PS3. While it is possible they both will survive and even do well this generation, it is just as if not more likely that one will effectively crush the other.

Taking that into consideration sheds some extra light on Gates' jubilation. A 10 million console head start, and the greatest threat to your success fails to live up to expectations. It is even possible, if unlikely, that Sony will be forced to drop out of consoles altogether (perhaps after a PS4), leaving Microsoft as one of two clear giants of the industry.

Quite simply, the position the Xbox 360 is in now is a very, very strong one. They've already sold a number of consoles equal to half what Nintendo's previous offering achieved. I'd be in a state of euphoria myself were I Gates. It would have been very difficult to imagine after the launch a little over a year ago that everything would go so well for Microsoft. The only thing the could go better would be a catastrophic explosion or meteoric impact at Sony HQ.

Re:What you mean ...

[seebs]

It's been shown long since. The flexibility and smoothness of control are unequaled, and now the question is just how well developers will use it.

The Wii control scheme is not just a gimmick; if it were, there wouldn't still be new players trying one and then going out and waiting in line in the cold in the hopes of getting one.

Re: FF was never pushing graphics / sound.

[trdrstv]

... Final Fantasy has always been a showboat of pushing graphics and sound, which isn't the direction Wii is going.

Nope. So far no version (including Kingdom Hearts) supports progressive scan, nor do many support even Dolby Prologic II. Pushing graphics and sound (despite looking pretty with great music) was never a priority. If it was last gen they would have done what Techmo did and supported the X-Box exclusively.

Re:What you mean ...

[Gat1024]

One more thing about Sony...

My local EB Games is having a sell on PS3's. $100 off. The PS3 can't be moving all that well if they're being discounted already.

This shows that Nintendo's shortages are a problem

[Pluvius]

Instead of looking at the total numbers since launch, looking at the monthly numbers is a lot more illuminating. In November, the Wii sold 475K units, while in December it sold 600K. Keeping in mind the Wii was released in the middle of November, this represents a 40% decrease in the sales rate, while the PS3 actually had an increase of about 50%. If this sort of thing keeps up, it could be a major blow to the Wii regardless of whether or not the negative sales growth is due to lowered demand.

The exact numbers for November and December:

Wii: 476K 604.2K
PS3: 197K 490.7K


And for those of you who scanned over the summary quickly, the XBox 360 sold 1.1 million units in December alone. Further putting things in perspective, the PS2 was still the best-selling console over the holiday season.

Rob

PS3 will never have a system seller

[pyrois]

I love Sony, and I think the PS3 is awesome. I'll definitely buy one when I can muster up 600 washingtons. There's just one thing I've noticed from listening to my friends and people on forums.

A $600 system can never have a "system seller" game.

This is not to say the system won't sell, but $600, as mentioned many times before, just isn't an impulse buy. Even the Xbox 360 at $400 for the premium version is a difficult "walk in and buy for Gears of War" system. One game just isn't enough.

The Wii, at $250, is definitely in the impulse buy range. If I see one on the shelf, I wouldn't even hesitate to pick it up, along with Zelda, and purchase it.

The PS3, at $600, for even semi-hardcore gamers, is just not an item that one can justify purchasing because one REALLY good game came out. When Halo 3 comes out for the 360, it will sell systems. If Halo 3 came out exclusively for the PS3, the price would be prohibitively large enough that people might still say "I think I'm going to wait for the price drop," or "I'll wait until it has another good game that I want."

On the other hand, Sony has done a good job of selling through all their units until Christmas. Pricing is correct when there is a readily available of supply for purchase, yet enough to match production levels. If they gradually drop the price of the system, interest may rise again to the point of sell-out. But really, who wants that? In many ways, I kind of wish the Wii were $300. Then maybe I could actually buy one without paying $400 for it off eBay.

Re:This shows that Nintendo's shortages are a prob

[Anonymous Coward]

...looking at the monthly numbers is a lot more illuminating...
The exact numbers for November and December:

Wii: 476K 604.2K
PS3: 197K 490.7K Not very illuminating at all. The only thing that tells us is that Nintendo released 476K Wiis in November and 604.2K in December, and that Sony released 197K PS3s in November and 500K PS3s in December (because there are still lots sitting on shelves).

Re:Anecdotal but it seems like the losers were onl

[VJ42]

Wait, Wii Play is out in the UK? DAMN YOU!!!! (If you have gotten a copy of it, how is it?) It's probably only worth it for the extra controller for the normal gamer (I got it with my preorder*), the game itself is only worth the extra £5 over the cost of a controller that it costs(Controller =£30, Wii Play =£35), considering that all other Wii games are usually £40. However it's very good for introducing new players to the Wii, though both laser hockey and cow racing are very addictive. The other reason to get it is if you are a duck hunt fan, I never was.

*walking in at 10:00AM launch day, and picking up my Wii, Zelda, Wii Play and Call of Duty 3 + extra Nunchuck was a great feeling, no hassle and no queues)

Re:What you mean ...

[blighter]

I don't know, with the kind of PR statements and decisions that come out of Sony HQ these days, a meteor impact might actually improve the company's performance...

Re:What you mean ...

[captain_cthulhu]

The worst news for Sony, though, is the reports that they aren't sold out any longer and PS3s are sitting on shelves

this is true! I can go down to BestBuy right now and buy a PS3. If I want a Wii, I need to wait until the next rumored shipment (Jan 21st is the current rumor) and wait in line before the store opens... 2 months after launch and 1 month after christmas! I saw this happening even before Christmas - I could have easily bought a PS3 before December 25th but very little chance to get a Wii. also, by this time last year, even though MS had production troubles, I was able to get a 360.

Coincidentally...

[NthDegree256]

...shaking sticks at consoles is exactly what the Wii is all about.

Re:What you mean ...

[Castar]

I don't know. Nintendo was originally claiming to be aiming to produce 4 million Wiis by year end. They only produced 1.1 million - I think they're definitely having supply issues. They haven't confirmed it, of course, but if you look at the numbers that's the case.

Personally, I suspect the accelerometers for the controllers.

NPD Numbers don't represent 100% of the market

[xswl0931]

Keep in mind that the NPD numbers only represent brick and morter stores (no online sales are included in their numbers) and even then only represent 60% of brick and morter (I believe even Walmart sales aren't included).

Re:NPD Numbers don't represent 100% of the market

[Mark Maughan]

Walmart is now included now and has been for a while.

Re:NPD Numbers don't represent 100% of the market

[Rosebud128]

Of all the retailers that are tracked, the ones that are not (40%) are estimated. Wal-Mart is definately included.

Microsoft measures its sales as shipped to retailers, not in consumer hands. There is not only a discrepancy in Microsoft's 360 hardware, but in its software as well. Gears of War has shipped 2.7 million copies, but this is not reflected in independent tracking. Why? These are shipped numbers. Microsoft is still a far way from getting 360s in ten million customers' hands.

Trust independent trackers before you trust a press release from any company...

Re:What you mean ...

[catprog]

Does that 1.1 million include Australia,Europe and japan?

Re:This shows that Nintendo's shortages are a prob

[miro f]

a couple of things of note

1) Remember that the US was the last launch that the PS3 made, they only had to supply US and Japan. After the US launch, Nintendo had to maintain a launch in Japan, Europe, US, Australia etc. That's most likely why the production numbers didn't ramp up as much. Of course, you people in USA probably would prefer that they kept them there to deal with the demand, but speaking as an Aussie with a Wii and no PS3, it definitely makes a difference here

2) everyone says that the current best selling console is the PS2. This is clearly wrong, and everyone is ignoring the real winner, the DS, which sold some 2.4 million or something. Just because it's a handheld doesn't mean it's not a console

I Still Havent Seen a Decent PSP Game Yet

[bartmank11]

Anyone wanna tell me about a Decent PSP Game ?? I have found no reason to update to 2.0 yet (Well there was that one time but i downgraded back to 1.5 and haven't seen anything to convince me otherwise) Personally With all the hardware out nowadays and all that other nice stuff, I still think my Super Nintendo Works better then anything out nowadays ! Thing has sat in my old moldy basement for 3 years now anyone wanna bet that after a couple blows in freaking thing its gonna work better then GTA San Andreas then my on launch XBOX. No cause these freaking things donsen't work like they should after a year or so even if you keep that $hit clean and nice. Its that reason i think the gaming industry's sucking lately and WII is gonna kick ass. AND BTW i hate nintendo's Kiddish style games and i am a playstation gamer at heart, give me Resident Evil and Final Fantasy Anyday but these guys aren't gonna design games for each of these hardcore system's and not Port it over to PC format. FACE THE FACTS 400-600 dollars is not fun to pull out, give the companines your business imagine what a PS4 is gonna be for price and ask yourself if you can keep doing this ?

Re:This shows that Nintendo's shortages are a prob

[Pluvius]

The NPD reports actual sales numbers, not shipment numbers. Granted, they are only for the US, and even then they're known to be conservative estimates since they don't get data from certain retailers (most notably Wal-Mart), but they're still a reliable metric when used to judge sales trends.

Rob

Re:This shows that Nintendo's shortages are a prob

[Pluvius]

Going by standard convention, no, the DS isn't a console. The distinction reflects on the fact that the portable gaming market is quite different from the console gaming market, just as the console gaming market is quite different from the computer gaming market. (Technically, we should be calling all of them computers.)

Rob

Re:What you mean ...

[Duds]

Oh absolutely.

But that neatly proves the point that the sales of PS3 were and aren't simply "What they can make", which is certainly still the case with the wii.,

Re:What you mean ...

[MeanderingMind]

1.1 million is the NPD's number, which a lot of industry analysts are looking at funny. Nintendo has officially announced 4 million successfully shipped, 2 million of which went to North America. With no Wiis in stores, it's hard to imagine that .9 million Wiis are hidden in warehouses somewhere.

The thing about the NPD, beyond only covering North America, is that it only covers 60% of retailers and doesn't cover online sales at all. If we assume that the 40% of remaining retailers had a Wii alotment proportional to the rest, that's 730k systems the NPD would miss. I don't think it's impossible the internet could account for the remaining 170k systems.

Best Buy Inventory Update

[jonhorvath]

I just went to our local Best Buy tonight and notice the following * No Wiis were available * 6 360 cores systems available, no premiums * Tons (more then 20) of 60G PS3 systems available. Not looking good for PS3 after the holiday season

The future is still undecided

[Anonymous Coward]

It's long been stated that we won't have an overall winner until 2008-2009.

It is clear that 360 is in the lead now with the largest user base and 5x-10x as many consoles out there (depending which reports you believe/read). This makes it an obvious target for developers.

It is also clear that the Wii has had a strong launch and that the PS3 launch has not been as good as the Wii launch. There are some PS3 consoles sitting on shelves (if they were cheaper, I would bet they would not be sitting there) and I am hard-pressed to find a Wii anywhere.

No matter how I cut it though, I don't see the Wii being a direct competitor and I don't see the PS3 launch as being that bad. I believe the Wii is an alternative to both systems, and one that has slowed the PS3 launch ("hey, i can buy a wii for cheap in the intermediate and wait a bit longer to see which decisions i should make") and helped augment 360 sales (microsoft did some nice pushing with cheap packages and availability due to launching a year before - no doubt they pulled a few PS3 fanboys to the 360 side, but probably not more than 200,000).

When you look at the games lineup, the PS3 lineup is the worst - but that will change. Next Gen developers are intending to develop for both PS3 & 360. Wii isn't really Next Gen, in the same sense. You can't as-easily port code between Wii and Next Gen due to numerous reasons. This means a lot of developers independently target projects on the Wii and not on the 360/PS3, meaning we should see a generally different slough of games (creating a differing market).

As 2007 and 2008 hop along, we'll begin to see the war between 360 and PS3 really take shape (IMHO, the war hasn't even began to get close to what it will be). More/better games, more analysis of the system from users, evolution of the platform services, format war, etc.

Let's see what happens at Christmas next year.

On the flip side, I'm excited to see the high industry sales and some pretty good systems all around. It means I'll have a job for at least another year! :)

Simple -- the Microsoft discount factor

[patio11]

Firefox has 10% of the browser market -- closing in on IE!
Linux has 2% of the desktop market -- largest gaining OS every year for the last 5!
Microsoft sells nearly double 3rd place competitor -- practical parity!
Microsoft has 2% of the iPod market -- barely worth mentioning except to snicker!

The cause for all is the same: the Microsoft discount factor. See, what happens is you take Microsoft's units sold/installed, and then multiply by a constant. Use whatever constant you need to achieve the result that the upstarts are plucky and, if Microsoft is the upstart, that it is getting squashed by the industry's de-facto monopoly.

Lets be honest, though, thats nostalgia selling

[patio11]

If you sold a NEW game today with similar quality graphics which featured a plucky carpenter jumping on the backs of crocodiles and picking tomatoes to increase in size, you would probably be extraordinarily lucky to sell 1,000 units. And people would think you were freaking off your rocker for selling them at $20 each. The pure essence of New Super Mario Brothers, reduced to a generic game, cannot command the prices Nintendo is getting for it. The difference is the brand equity built up in Mario. People will buy Mario for a variety of reasons (for me, every time I see Mario I'm magically transported to that sense of wonder I had as a kid the first time I found a warp whistle in SMB3), relatively few of which are "gameplay" (witness the variety of genres he works in). Mario has become a word which is worth money (nod to Neal Stephenson for this realization), just like you can take two totally identical shirts, put Tommy Hilfiger on one of them, and charge 5x the price for it.