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Consumers Unlikely To Pay $500 for iPhone
narramissic writes "A survey by online market research firm Compete Inc. finds that of the 26% of those who said they're likely to buy an iPhone, only 1% said they'd pay $500 for it, while 42% said they'd likely buy the phone for $200 to $299. Sixty percent of likely iPhone buyers would be willing to make the switch to AT&T wireless to get it."
I can't begin to count how often in the past people cheered about a product that ended up either vaporware or less-than-desired. I also can't begin to count on the opposite happening: a non-starter product release that turned out to be better than expected. I've been a PDA user since the Apple Newton days, and I've been a PDA Phone user since pre-Blackberry days (although I never had a Blackberry, I prefer full PDAs). I currently use an HTC Trinity P3600 and love it -- GPS, EDGE/3G, 2GB storage card, WiFi, and more. It runs the horrid Windows Mobile 5 but I absolutely love the phone, and combined with Google Maps online + GPS, it replaced 3 devices that I had tethered with me constantly.
The iPhone looks terrible to me for a variety of reasons -- locked application support, AT&T (love my T-Mobile), restrictive networking (GPRS and not EDGE/3G?), etc. But the iPhone will probably win in version 2 because of what has made Apple a powerhouse -- it's the interface, stupid. My iPod is really a great device (even though I don't use it since I have EDGE-radio streamed from my home media PC). I loved the iPod for the interface. I'm glad my wife, sister, father, mother and brother all have iPods -- I have to do absolutely NO work to keep them happy.
My #1 complaint about ALL PDAs and ALL phones has always been the interface. It seems that techies designed a horrid interface around features, rather than integrating everything into a smooth GUI. Apple's interface alone will sell millions, and people will pay the price.
One thing that people seem to forget time and again is that you can not judge tomorrow's prices on yesterday's prices. Inflation has destroyed the US dollar (down 50% in 5 years), so prices double of what we paid 5 years ago can be considered "par" with the fall in value of the dollar. I think $500 is a reasonable price for all of what the iPhone offers -- even though it is merely version 1.0. By the time the iPhone is actually released, who knows how much inflation has caused wages to "rise" and incomes to "soar." With the Democrats taking over, I don't doubt that inflation will get worse than even the high-spending Republicans forced the issue.
Don't look at prices as a constant. In terms of US dollars, we're almost all wealthier in the number of dollars we earn -- even though we are poorer in terms of what those dollars can buy us.
Sidenote: Apple is also wise to set this price point. It is just pricey-enough-sounding to make the device a little more elitist than the $49 Razr that every 12 year old seems to have. Getting the superstars and Paris-Hilton-models using their phone will make everyone want one, and as sales go up, prices tend to go down. Apple's biggest problem in the short run will be supply -- I guarantee they won't have enough to keep up with demand, even at $500.
I paid $650 for my HTC Trinity P3600, and if Apple can integrate a GPS and EDGE/3G, I'd pay $1000 for it just on the interface alone. Give it a few weeks after release, and I think people's opinions of the device will change. They'll see what it can do for them (especially business folks, teenagers with money, and young adults with new credit cards), and they'll jump at the chance to have one early for $500.
Oh sorry, I thought we were talking about the PS3.
God spoke to me.
Consumers Unlikely To Pay $500 for iPhone
I hear it's also got less space than a Nomad. Lame.
The theory of relativity doesn't work right in Arkansas.
What percentage said they wouldn't buy one at all?
*Runs away*
/* No Comment */
Not that I disagree with the assessment that nobody wants a $500 phone, but does anyone else really doubt how accurate these online marketing surveys are? To qualify (and get paid) you usually have to answer a question like the following one from a survey to gather information about enterprise class printers:
How many people work in your company worldwide?
- 1
- 2-5
- 6-15
- 16-100
- 101-10000
Well, you know that if you don't answer with the last one, you don't get to participate or get paid. You know that people lie their asses off.Possibly. I am going to get it (eventually), but I make above-average money and have no kids or anything. I think most consumers expect it to drop in price like other cell phones, IE the razr which was once rediculously priced but now is handed out willy-nilly. Whether that happens or not is yet to be seen, since Apple has no intention of being a typical mobile phone manufacturer.
I'll pay $500 for the wireless internet device / OS X hand-held computer and you can keep the iTunes / Mobile phone functions..
I'm getting one. My Treo 650, while nice, is bulky, and never syncs my contacts and calendar correctly with my Mac. I even have the "MissingSync", and it still doesn't work right.
The iPhone is more than a media player, it's the ultimate PDA. That is what I'm looking for. Something ultra modern, but without the lame keypad at the bottom. Can't tell you how many times I've had to open up my Treo to fix the keyboard when a letter get's pushed the wrong way....
It's either on the beat or off the beat, it's that easy.
I moderate therefore I rule!
--
46% of potential Ferrari buyers said they would buy a Ferrari for $12,000-$18,000. Less than one percent said they would buy a Ferrari for the current list price of $1,000,000.
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score
So only 1% would purchase it at $500, but a full 60% would switch to Cingular to get it. At what price would they switch? $299 or $499? Summary doesn't say, nor does TFA.
Sloppy.
Per Square Mile, a blog about density
Personally, after the initial excitement wore off, I decided to wait to see if OpenMoko's phone is going to be all it seems it could be. Apple lost me when they took a perfectly good computing device and made it phone+music player with some PDA functions tacked. Go ahead an mod me troll, but I've got a stack of apple laptops. I buy stuff for its value and Apple's stuff often packs good value. Not the iPhone though -- I don't see the value there.
What changed under Obama? Nothing Good
Dollars to donuts, people will pay for the iPhone.
They said the original iPod was expensive, too. But there's are segments of society that won't flinch at $500 for a phone because it's not much money to them. And there are other segments of society that are willing to invest $500 of their hard earned money into something they really like.
The iPhone may be expensive for a "phone" -- but as a pocket computer, it's a pretty cool device. These nay-sayers are the same people shelling out thousands of dollars for HD TVs, and I paid $2000 for my iMac a while ago -- in the grand scheme of things, $500 is not that much money.
iPhone will sell like hot cakes and make Apple a tonne of dough.
Inflation has destroyed the US dollar (down 50% in 5 years), so prices double of what we paid 5 years ago can be considered "par" with the fall in value of the dollar.
If you consider inflation to be the value of precious metals such as gold, then sure, you can get to absurd values such as 50% (mind you, there's no such thing as absolute reference value). OTOH, if you consider consumer price indexes, it's much lower - between 5 and 10%.
The Raven
I seem to recall that Steve Jobs said when introducing the iPhone that they were aiming for 1% of the market initially.
The survey is backwards. It asks first if the person is interested in the iPhone _and then_ what price they'll pay. Apple has already said they aren't targeting every phone buyer. They're targeting phone buyers who are planning on/willing to spend $500+ on a phone. They don't (currently) care about the people who want an iPhone but are only willing to spend $200 (or whatever price).
I'd be more interested in what percentage of people who are willing to buy a $500+ phone are planning on getting an iPhone.
(And I'm going to skip the obvious commentary about wanting an iPhone but being "willing" to buy it for as cheap a price as the survey allows because many others are already making those (insightful) comments...)
We are not consumers! We are citizens and customers, not sheep.
Of course it runs NetBSD. BTC: 1NT7QvbetmANwaMzhpVL6
So basically, one person their entire sample was willing to pay the iPhone's nominal, current price? That's a pretty shoddy sample to be deducing the actual percent from.
Also, note that just because the majority of people won't buy a particular product, it does not follow that the product will necessarily fail. What percent of Americans owned iPods when they first came out? It's up to around 10% now, but we're also into the fifth generation and the prices have dropped while capability has increased. Since this is common with technology, I would expect the same from the iPhone.
Why are you attacking the poster? He's making cogent points in a very clear way. If you don't agree with hm, fine, but your personal attack is off-base and stupid. You're just revealing that you're too shallow to use reason to oppose what you obviously disagree with. You're making his argument look even stronger by comparison.
David
we don't know the cost yet, once Apple/AT&T tell us (they probably don't know yet) what the plans will cost per month then we can decide, if the rumors are correct and the plans will be in the zero-$10/month range then it looks pretty good, at $25/month it looks too expensive (for me), $500 for the iPhone and two years service is a steal...... $1500 is way too much and the real price will be somewhere in between
Here in the US, as opposed to say Japan or the EU, we pay for our $500 cell phones in multi-year contracts for phone services, so we actually think it costs us $50 for a phone, since it's bundled with our overpriced service.
In other places you pay the actual price of the phone and your wireless service is $10 to $20 a month.
The same thing will happen with the iPhone - US and Canadian customers will be offered a plan where we basically amortize the cost of the iPhone over 2 or 3 years of wireless service, and end up paying much more than we would if we kept it separate.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
The author surveyed 379 people of which 26% said they will buy iPhone. That is roughly 100 people, of which 1% said they will pay $500. That is just 1 person. Whoever translates this to 1% is a "statistically challenged" person.
Living With a Nerd
Why is 500 for the iPhone too much, when its 450 for the Motorola Q and its a terrible phone that people still buy?
"Slashdot, where telling the truth is overrated but lying is insightful."
I was reading this rediff article in which a middle class teen ager is complaining about price of tomato (20 cents a pound) and is carrying USD 400+ cellphone. They sure do have lot of money to buy cell phones.
The survey is backwards. It asks first if the person is interested in the iPhone _and then_ what price they'll pay.
Well, they tried to get people to pay for it who said they didn't want it, but they just kept hanging up on them.
Can you give me $500 for this pile of sludge? Thanks!
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Even if these numbers are completely accurate, and you assume that 200 out of the 300 million people in the US are cell phone buyers, this still means 300,000 iPhones would be sold in the US. Given that Steve Jobs said his companies goal was to have 1 million iPhones out in the wild, globally, by the end of 2008, this number is extremely reasonable. Remember, prices will drop, additional incentives will be created, etc. Also, keep in mind that once people see the iPhones in action, when the Jones' next door have one, etc., this no longer becomes a completely rational purchase. The iPhone won't work for me, so I doubt I'll ever buy one, but I still fully expect this to be a hit.
I am not going to pay $500 for just a phone, but I would pay $500 for a mobile computer. I am not an early adaopter by any stretch. Even if I was I would still not pay for the iPhone. It has to be open to developers so it can expand with my needs. The most resounding feature is how much it is limited. It is limited to Cingular with 2 year contract, no new apps unless Apple makes them, and the lifetime of the battery (they don't last forever). Ill pass for now.
You don't have to be smart to use a Mac, you just have to be smart enough to buy one
One of the terms of the AT&T/Apple deal was that AT&T /not/ subsidize the price of the iPhone.
Or, rather, my wife is getting one.
Her birthday is in June, and she needs a new iPod and a new cell phone, and we're already with Cingular and are happy with the service. She saw that you can show pictures to people on that wide screen and said "I want to be able to do that." And now that we've got a baby on the way, it will make it a helluva lot easier than having to lug photos around or view it on my iPod's comparatively small screen, or the tiny screen of an iPod Nano. And having her address book and calendar with her would be very convenient.
So it's not for everybody, but for her it can replace having to carry around two larger items that, were I to buy them separately, would cost about the same price.
I'm in the hole of the broadband donut.
Oh, I remember!!.
$500 + may work without a forced 2 year plan but the I-phone will likely force you buy a 2 year high cost data plan as well a 2 year voice plan
I know that $500 is a lot to shell out for a phone, but I have a $300 phone, but paid less than half price for it, because you usually sign some service contract to get a ridiculously low price. So while people might not be willing to pay $500, hardly anyone is going to be paying that price, they'll probably be paying around that 200-300 mark anyways.
Most americans aren't willing to pay *anything* up front for a cellphone. But we will accept a two year contract at double the normal rate, as long as we get the phone for "free".
So they'll do the same thing with the iPhone that they do with every other phone. They'll offer 'em at half the price, and charge you an arm and a leg every month for 24 months or more. And most Americans will thank them for it.
That, and employers will buy them for their employees. So yes, only 1% of those surveyed would pay $500, but in the end, more than 1% of those surveyed will end up with an iPhone.
Didn't RAZR phones used to cost about $500? I seem to remember how ridiculously over-priced that seemed, but they give you a deal on the phone when you get a service plan. So the iPhone will probably end up costing $250 - $300 with a 2 year plan.
"Apple launches the iPhone, aiming for one percent of the global mobile market." - 1/10/2007
Study: Consumers aren't willing to pay $500 for iPhone "only 1 percent said they'd pay US$500 for it" - 2/23/2007
Wow. In only six weeks they've managed to estabilish exactly what Apple already said and, in a sensationalist bid, are framing exactly what was predicted as a terrible failure.
As another poster's written: Most people would buy Ferraris for $18,000 but less than 1% will at their current price... and Ferrari is absolutely fine with that.
In exactly the same way, Apple created a flagship brand that's not supposed to be owned by everyone but is supposed to increase brand awareness, move more people to iTunes and sell a hell of a lot of iPods to people who'd like to be able to upgrade "one day." Apple doesn't want the $50, minimal to no profits, tied to carriers for subsidies market. They chose their market, went after it, and all this article does is confirm their estimates were apparently exactly right. Given most companies over-estimate, 0.5% would have been a more realistic expectation based on a 1% prediction. That independent research supports 1% too is the shocking part.
Don't mention your UID as a basis for any statement on /. unless it's lower than 100000. Ever.
Slashdot. It's Not For Common Sense
This isn't a PDA. You can't add software to it. You can't write software for it. It is worthless as a computing device. This is why it is not worth $500.
+++ATH0
Why does everyone hate Cingular (or AT&T Wireless)? I seriously have no idea. I've had them for a while and never had any problems. Or is it just typical "hate big company" mentality?
If they drop the price that low, it'll put the iPhone into direct competition with the high-end iPod (currently $350). Since the iPhone has more features, a cheap iPhone has the potential to cannibalize iPod sales. That's no good for Apple because lowering the price means lowering the iPhone's profit margin at the expense of high profit iPods.
All signs indicate Apple's trying to position the iPhone a step-up from the iPod, not a replacement. I really doubt it will ever drop below the price of the most expensive iPod, even with a contract.
This crap should be on FARK.com, not slashdot.
:)
*Note: I read FARK as well
Lest the irony be lost, SBC or Southwestern Bell Telephone Company was once part of Bell Telephone, which was split by courts over its monopoly status into Bell Atlantic (now Verizon), SBC, and others. SBC just ate its mother and took her name.
-- Political fascism requires a Fuhrer.
"Would you buy an Apple iPhone for $500?" 15%
"An iPhone looks as cool as a Mac or iPod. Would you buy an iPhone for $500?" 25%
"An iPhone is bigger than a RAZR. Would you buy an iPhone for $500?" 3%
"Given that you can't run your own apps on it, would you buy an iPhone for $500?" 5%
"The Democrats wield power in Congress. This means taxes may go up. Would you buy an iPhone for $500?" 3%
"Would you refuse to buy an iPhone for $500?" 85%
"It's Tuesday tomorrow. Would you refuse to buy an iPhone for $500?" 87%
"If someone were to ask you if you'd buy an iPhone, would you reply 'yes'?" 9%
Surveys, don't you love 'em!
Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
It ISN'T an OSX handheld computer.
In order to be a computer, one would need to be able to install/develop software on/for it.
Instead, it is just a toy.
+++ATH0
I've got this great commercial post blocker software. It will block not just dada21, but dada1-20 as well! $19.99, but for the first 100 slashbots to order, it's only $9.99! Just mention the code "IMADUFUS" for your special deal.
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
You can't even buy a PC laptop for the same price with the same specs. Actually, I think if you spec out a similar PC laptop, it costs MORE. And it is durable, and the industrial design is excellent.
Your complaints about Macs used to be valid. I used to have the same complaints. Wake up -- they don't apply anymore.
+++ATH0
I don't know where you get this idea that Cingular is run by bumpkins but it's not my experience. I travel throughout the midwest (usually driving) and I've had very few problems, no more than I had while using my old Verizon account or my work-purchased SprintNextel phone. In fact, in my experience, the Sprint network is the worst.
Even if I wanted this phone, I will NEVER do business with AT&T wireless again. They basically lied to my face on several occassions and when the facts became apparent, tried to blame it on a telemarketing firm!?! And I still had to pay to get out. If you buy one of these phones, it doesn't matter how cool it is, unless it's completely functional *without* being connected to the wireless network!
They made it clear $500 is the price with a contract.
It took two years and the much cheaper iPod Mini before Apple sold even a million units. The Mini and Nano are still the most popular by units sold. In comparison, Jobs expects to sell 10 million iPhones in the first year of the iPhone.
I'll hold out the possibility that the next generation iPhone might sell better, but this first one is going to sell much like the 1G iPod. Certain market segments (Slashdot users, rich teenage girls) will indeed flock to the iPhone initially and think nothing of the expense. Unfortunately, once they've exhausted that small pool of inelastic demand, no one else is going to buy it.
As soon as it's out, I'm buying it. Heck, I'm even getting the $600 one with more memory. I'm sick of crappy phones and I'm willing to pay to bet on apple. They haven't failed me yet.
#1 iPhone is just the first entry. It will be the high-end entry. And there are plenty of people who will pay for a high-end entry. Going to market with a high-end entry is a good practice for getting experience with market acceptance of cutting edge features. You can then separate out what provides you competitive advantage at lower price points versus things people will pay a premium for. Remember IT IS MUCH EASIER TO LOWER PRICES THAN RAISE THEM
#2 iPhone is trying to re-invent the market for mobiles. People are anchored at the current price points for the current set of phones. Just as the original iPod was something people would say "No way I will pay $400 for an MP3 player", people currently for the most part cannot see paying a premium for a cell phone.
At least in some cases, people don't know what they actually want/will buy. The only real way to find if people are going to buy one is to offer them for sale.
When the treo 700p first came out (my current phone) I paid $599 for it. So, I honestly don't see the difference. People were also willing to spend $499 for the 700w when it first came out.
To top it off, many people signed a 2 year contract to get their treo 700s for $100 cheaper. I signed a 1 year contract because I knew in a years time I would get tired of the phone and want something else. The early termination fee from Verizon is $175. The great thing is, my contract with Verizon expires the same month the iPhone comes out.
Of course, the price has come down on it. Unlike the iPhone which will stay at $500 for a very long time.
People are just cheap, thats what it comes down to. But hey, you get what you pay for.
until (succeed) try { again(); }
$500 actually doesnt seem out of whack and seems modest? given what phones cost and how they are financed
In Canada, Rogers (the canadian provider for iPhoe) has the Treo 680 for $299 with a 3 year plan (and you have to take a specific call plan/data rate). if I take a 2 year term i pay $449, $499 if I go with a one year.
If I get a blackberry 8700r, i can pay $299 if I sign for a 3 year term, and 599 if I go for 1 year.
HP ipaq 6955 - $649 + 3 year term and $749 for a 1 year term.
I estimate the phone to be around $600 which is very much the same as what I see for other devices and when I compare to those noted above which one I am going to sign up for.
Check out this eBay item. A Ferrari at $62,000. Rather appropriate for this discussion.
Okay, the real reason I like that eBay item is in connection to the seller's Nov 30th transaction.
Price is NOT the determining criteria. Usability of higher end features are the criteria for judging whether an iPhone will "sell".
Everyone I know has been absolutely PO'd by cell phones that are physical messes, from hinges to keys that malfunction & screens too tiny, messy, linty to read (unless you are 20-20), and battery covers that need to be taped on, etc, let alone the complaints about lack of proper sync and computer like functions.
A significant % of onsumers can't wait to dump the crap they have now as it is a real waste of their time, not having a truly competent Computer Digital Assistant (CDA), instead of a PDA.
Additional models and features will arrive and so will the 3rd party Applications. Apple is NOT behind the curve sleeping at the wheel. Given their product intro cycle, I can guarantee you right now they are already designing the 3rd Gen iPhone and have probably outlined Gen 4 iPhone. Apple doesn't mess around with one trick ponies.
Apple releasing the info 6 months ahead of time was a grand statement to their marketing survey and marketing analysis strategy in my estimation. They are going to feel out the market for quite awhile before they actually have to cast some things in stone.
"Well, I'd buy one for a thousand bucks, therefore the premise is wrong." Sorry, that's just not a good argument. What percentage of people pay more than $400 for a phone? I'd imagine it would be very low. Those who don't pay that much do so for a very good reason: money in the bank making interest is better than money in a gadget depreciating rapidly. Of the people who would pay more than $400 for a phone, you have to substract people who get corporate push email, and people who happen to like their existing phone enough to use it for a couple more years. The percentage of people left over is big enough to make Apple some decent money, but not big enough to be a landscape-changing event. At best, Apple has a device that will inject some much-needed design sense into the industry, generates incrementally more mindshare for Apple, and lets them not lose tons of money doing it.
I love Apple and i dislike Microsoft for all the reasons that I love Apple.
[RANT]
But, with that said I'll hang onto my Cingular HTC 8125 because it's a full PDA with phone capability. It has Wifi, Bluetooth, EDGE, GPRS, and I can install programs that other people have written for it, not just who Microsoft decides codes good enough and can afford to pay their licensing fees. Plus, I may be in the minority here but I write my own programs for my pocket PC phone.
So, unless Apple does a 360 and comes out with a SDK and full integration into XCODE and lets anyone who wants to develop applications for it then they can keep their fancy dancy ipod phone PDA wanna be thingy! Oh, and they won't because once Apple makes a stupid mistake they stick with it no matter how much it costs them.
People who pay would pay $500 for a phone are going to be the people replacing their pocket pc phones that currently run windows mobile 5.0. They are used to paying $5 to $10 per app/game and have a handful of favorites. If Electronic Arts writes programs for the iPhone they are going to want at least $50 for it. Also, I imagine many people who currently have pocket pc phones have written some of their own applications for it. So, if you want a phone, a media player, and a PDA then you will need to carry around at least 2 devices, your PDA and your iPhone. Unless your PDA is a pocket pc phone then forget the iPhone. And the worst part is that if you do decide to carry both your iPhone and a PDA your iPhone will have twice the memory and 10 times the computing power of your PDA but at least it will have WiFi and Bluetooth so you can uhmmm, hmmmmm, well never mind forget that because why would a phone need those?
Another shoot yourself in the foot move Apple has done with the iPhone is that they are not going to allow cell providers to subsidize the it, like all the other phones on the market are today. Currently Cingular is the only provider lined up to support it and they are going to have a hard to marketing it at $500 and since they can't subsidize it then they won't be able to lock you into a 2 year commitment the way they like. After all the rebates and subsidized pricing I paid $99 for my Cingular HTC 8125 and I got a $50 reward (visa) card and 1 gb mini SD card for it. So, the way I look at it is that Cingular gave me the phone so that I would use their service for 2 years. Fine, that's the way I like it. I am with Cingular anyways because they have the most subscribers (at least in my part of the world) so the majority of my calls are in network. So, the only way Cingular could match such an offer would be to subsidize their service and charge full retail for the phone which in most cases would mean giving the customer 2 years free service if they buy the phone and sign up for 2 years! You're kidding right Steve?
And I feel so strongly about it I'll rephrase my original statement in simple terms:
IT'S JUST A PHONE! It is NOT A PDA / PHONE!
Besides the oooh see how cool this thing looks, until I drop it a couple times, factor this is no better than a razor. I've dropped my 8125 at least 2 dozen times and it still works like a charm. A friend of mine has an iPod Nano and luckily he got the extended warranty because he has had to send it in 6 times in the last 4 months already! I was going to get one of those (the nano) until I saw it in person and realized that I couldn't go a week without breaking it. From what I have seen from the iPhone it's no different except even with an extended warranty how can you be without your phone while Apple is fixing it all the time? Yes touch screens look cool and all but they are prone to scratches and eventually cracks. People baby their brand new expensive toy for a certain period of time, with some correlation as to how much they paid, but at some point people start using a phone they way they use all their phones tossing it here and there and dropping it. How many times have you dropped your phone on the parking lot or sid
Encryption: I may not agree with what you say, but I will defend your right to encrypt it...
Apple is all about price structure. For them it basically boils down to a simple reality. Today they are charging $350 for their top of the line IPod that will play video. This phone will do everything that IPod will do (give or take storage space) AND it's a phone. Isn't it worth $150 to dump that extra device and to be the coolest kid on the block? If they priced it any lower, they'd be canibalizing their IPod sales for what would ultimately be a lower margin product.
This sig has been temporarily disconnected or is no longer in service
Sorry, couldn't resist.
It doesn't proove their estimates were right. It prooves that they (likely) did a survey similar to this one, and that's where they got their numbers. Statistics are real, so surprise surprise, a second survey said much the same thing. Jobs isn't going to set himself up for an embarrassing fall, particularly because of the the way the Apple brand is marketed.
These _are_ just estimates.
Relax I just want some peanuts.
Expensive cell phones have become class symbols. Nobody really WANTS or uses these devices in any practical way, they just buy the shit to impress their friends. Or to boost their own personal self-esteem. Or they're just idiots.
Personally, I'd rather lounge in a chair in my living rooms and put on a nice record or CD than spend hours of my pumping this shit into my brain. I want to ENJOY my music, not shovel it down on the go.
Well, I guess you could practically use it on things like car trips and etc, but most people just use them when they should be doing something else, like paying attention to what the people around them are doing / saying and looking both ways before they cross the road. The golden rule for these types of things are : Just because you can, it doesn't mean you should.
This is one of the things that held back the newt. It was just way to damned costly for most people.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
The iPhone looks to me like a cool device. It basically looks like I can take all of the mac things I need with me on my phone (Mail, iCal, Address Book, tunes, etc.) really easily. That's exactly what I want and I expect it to be able to sync effortlessly.
But, in terms of sales figures, how many non-mac users will by this just as a phone. I can't imagine it working seamlessly with a Windoze box, nothing does, even iPods. So, is Apple limiting it's iPhone market size to mac owners (plus a few PC owners)? That's still not too shabby, and the mac owners are the ones who actually pay a premium for technology. I definitely don't see it being supported by any corporate IT department since you can't install Windows (or Linux) on it.
Me, I'm still up in the air. It's a definite must for my wife, but $500 it too much, and I need to switch to ATT. When it reaches $300, I'm in.
CNBC had a guy on yesterday or Wednesday who was saying that his market survey was showing the demand for the iPhone, even at the price Apple quoted, is huge and way underestimated. The CNBC interviewer was also misinterpreting the survey data and thinking it was actually showing almost no demand. The guy from the company that did the survey corrected her and was talking about how huge the demand for this actually is. I don't know what company did the survey. Maybe it's on CNBC somewhere.
Well, since Jobs' stated objective is to capture 1% of the mobile phone market, it seems like he's right on track.
Next stupid non-story, please?
Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!
Usability of higher end features are the criteria for judging whether an iPhone will "sell".
Pity that it doesn't have any of the higher end PDA features that would justify the premium price.
It's $500 with a 2 year contract. Until we know what's IN that contract, it's ridiculous to make any purchasing decision. If it's $500 for unlimited calls and data then more than 1% will want it, if it's $5/min + $5/kB then nodody will.
A pizza of radius z and thickness a has a volume of pi z z a
Why are people so up in arms about a $500 price tag?
You are getting an iPod, which is worth a couple hundred bucks on its own.. and a phone, which is worth a bit too. Seems like a perfectly reasonable price to pay, especially when compared to how much your average cell phone service plan costs. I've got a cheap plan, but when I signed a 2 year agreement I was essentially promising to pay verizon $1200. I'm sure the amount people will end up paying to enable all the fancy features of the iPhone will be much higher...
So if you're going to pay that much for the service anyway, might as well have a kickass phone.
Ok so they are behind a bit, Their page says that they are shipping this month. Unlikely, but I'll buy one of these before I'd ever buy an iPhone. If they do all the things they say they will do this phone will kick Apple's ass. The phone is called "Neo 1973" what that means I don't know.
l
This presentation isn't as flashy as Steve Jobs' but is has me way more interested.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRvtAAXTIlg
Linux Devices has a good writeup.
http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS2986976174.htm
The Company Web Site
http://www.openmoko.com/
"It's because they're stupid, that's why. That's why everybody does everything." -Homer Simpson
I recently had to replace the battery in my iPod (20 GB iPod w/click wheel). It cost $70, which is about what I had expected. What I didn't expect is that instead of replacing the battery, they gave my an entirely new iPod (the same model, but still), with a 90-day warranty. The scratches on my screen are gone, the click wheel feels nicer, and the drive has many hundreds of hours less use on it.
I had no idea this was the standard iPod battery replacement policy. It certainly makes the cost of the replacement much easier to pay.
Like most new devices, they want to recoup development cost so they charge exorbitant price for about 3 - 6 month to get those are not financially challenged to buy these. These people will flaunt them like a fancy car or other expensive toy. However thinking what this iPhone does in one device it is not bad. The price of each item separately would cost as much if not more than $500.
If you follow the numbers as stated, 26% of people surveyed want an iphone but only 1% of those who want it will pay the price (0.2%) and of that tiny fraction, only 60% will make the switch to AT&T (0.156%). So, from the post, I determine that 1 in 500 will pay for the phone but only 1 in 641 will switch to AT&T. Is that good?
Confused? RTFA and let me know if it helps.
iPod prices are lower now than they were when the device launched. It's probably even more dramatic if you adjust for inflation. If there's one thing you can count on in consumer electronics, it's falling prices.
I think it's very possible we'll see a $300 iPhone in a few years. Either the best iPod will cost well under $300, or the iPhone WILL be the best iPod--in much the same way the Treo is the top-of-the-line Palm PDA these days.
Build a man a fire, he's warm for one night. Set him on fire, and he's warm for the rest of his life.
Where do they think the rest of the world will be in 2 years.
Using 3G or HSDPA, depending on the market... just like the iPhone, which Apple has noted will have different capabilities that make sense for different markets.
A 3G + WiFi phone in the US is way less useful than an Edge + WiFi phone, simply because there is far better coverage. If the point of the device is to always be connected, Edge is a better choice than WiFi. And given the device is already expensive, why add to the cost even more by including 3G?
Eventually the US will see a iPhone that makes use of a faster cell technology, when our cellular carriers get thier act together for wide deployment or more advanced networking. In the meantime, you have connectivity in many places and much higher speed any time you can get a WiFi connection (which is pretty prevelent nowadays).
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
You totally underestimate how much of the market dislikes all exisitng smartphone options and will be happy to snap up an iPhone.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
"sell it at a high price in order to pay for development "
This is not how economics works. If you invented a new bubble gum, if you spent $100B on developing this bubblegum, even it was the best bubblegum ever, you couldn't charge more for it than the market will pay. The market doesn't care a bit about your costs. The price is determined, ultimately, by what people will pay.
As far as charging a high price when it comes out, this is called segmenting the market. You charge the highest amount, and when sales go down, you drop the price. Then more people buy. When you've saturated this market, the price goes down and you attract different price-sensitive consumer segments.
The price, however, is not at all dependent on how much the company has invested in the design.
2006-11-01 ABI Research Reveals 58% of iPod users may choose Zune.
"ABI Research has released the findings of a new study that reveal that many prospective MP3 player buyers - including current iPod owners - would be likely to chooseMicrosoft's ( News - Alert) Zune over Apple's star product.
When 1,725 teenage and adult US residents were asked whether they planned to buy an MP3 player in the next 12 months, of those responding they were likely to do so, 58 percent revealed they were "somewhat likely" or "extremely likely" to choose a Microsoft Zune player over the iPod or another MP3 player brand.
This 58 percent that were likely to go the way of the Microsoft Zune - all identified themselves as existing iPod owners. The respondents owning other brands, 59 percent, were also "somewhat or extremely likely" to purchase the Microsoft Zune as opposed to another brand - including the iPod."
This consumer here is buying two. One for himself and one for his wife. And I'll have to bail out of Verizon contract, which will cost some more. Apple just makes good shit, and they're going balls out with this one.
vlc? vnc? mplayer? gstreamer? AIM? Skype? How about a Game Boy emulator? Terminal? ssh? Firefox?
+++ATH0
The iPod is designed to be a music player, and does it very well. No one expects a music player to also work as a web browser, chat client, or a system administration tool.
Such is not the case for the iPhone, which is billed as a smartphone that "has Cocoa and OSX." Apple is essentially teasing us with the capabilities of the device and then saying "oh, but fuck you, you can't use anything except what we say you can." Arbitrarily. We all know the stated reasons are bullshit.
+++ATH0
Please spare me your pedantic definitions. You knew precisely what I meant.
I want to do what I want to do with the hardware that I PURCHASED. Apple is going out of their way to stifle the development ecosystem around this device because, as usual, they want absolute control.
The expectations around a "OSX-based smartphone with Cocoa" are SIGNIFICANTLY different from those around a game system.
+++ATH0
No, really! Its true!!!
You don't have to delete EDGE to add 3G.
You do if you want to keep the cost and size down (and even battery life). Engineering is constraints, and 3G is not useful enough at the moment to enough of the US to make inclusion worth those tradeoffs. Again, WiFi is way faster than 3G anyway so who cares if you are running on Edge or the faster 3G, when you can poke around and find a muhc faster WiFi connection for any real bandwith heavy needs?
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
All definitions of inflation that I've seen are based on prices of commodities, services, real estate, and not on relationship to other currencies. You're actually saying "Things haven't gotten much more expensive here but they are cheaper in some other countries". It's quite easy to interpret that as "Those currencies have appreciated".
The Raven
Shucks, when Lotus 1-2-3 first came out for the IBM PC (that's what we called them back then; now they are "Windows PCs"), it cost $495. Not for an office suite -- just the one application. And we paid it! Similar prices were paid for database and word processing software, such as it was. Mind you, it had a real manual that came in a three-ring binder and took up an impressive amount of shelf space above your workstation.
$500 is not too much to ask for a product with the range of features and excellent design of the iPhone. Uptake will be slow at first (as it was for the iPod), but they will sell a crapload of these babies. And no, I don't know how many Volkswagons that is...
Soylent Green is peoplicious!
Here in Moscow, most people pay as they go for mobiles. Very few have accounts apart from companies. No phones are ties to a provider.
The iPhone will fly off the shelves for $1000 as people with money like to be seen to have the best. It will sell even better after the price drops to $600 after three months and we average people can afford it.
Still, it could be interesting to see which provider has made a deal with Apple to provide the extra services. Ha! Probably all of them!
Sometimes it is sad to see what American people have to put up with in terms of mobile communication.
because of the inconvenient buttons.
Most of the time people dial without looking at the thinkg you typing in. Right now i am not looking at the keyboard typing with all of my 6 fingers (and that is 26 letters of Basic Latin + numbers and special symbols (ok, I do have to look for those...)) and of course, I am not going to look at the dialpad when I am dialing the number I have been dialing 1000 times.
And all that possible because REAL dialpads have tactile feeling.
Duh!
I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
I think the iPod has clearly shown that simplicity and usability are features. People are prepared to pay for these features. Even though the iPod's competitors often offer a lot more features for lower prices, people consistently go with the iPod - because it's easy to use, and because iTunes is easy to use.
I'm guessing that most iPod owners already own phones which would allow them to listen to music. Many of these people specifically bought an iPod because they don't want these two feature sets in the same device.
And there's something else: Personally, I own both an iPod and a cell phone, and I've noticed that I hardly ever take both of them with me. When I go jogging, I take my iPod with me. I don't need my phone for that. When I go to work or when I go ou, I take my phone with me. Don't need an iPod then. Ironically, if I buy an iPhone, it will not be as a replacement for the iPod, but as a replacement for my current cell phone.
Finally, the iPods with similar price points as the iPhone offer large hard disks, which the iPhone doens't have. Different market altogether.
They invented an awesome new feature which is currently unheard of in cell phones: the "it doesn't suck" feature.
Without UMTS, the iPhone probably won't stand a chance in Europe. So I'm guessing a revision will come sooner rather than later.
3G iPhone could arrive overseas by early 2008 http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2520 Expect higher prices at release: TFA 1% of 26% buy sight unseen,or .26%
World usage "estimated at 2.14 billion in 2005"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_phone
Over 5 million,buy sight unseen,2005 numbers.
So first year 10 million looks like cake.Hotcakes, actually.
Early production/distribution will fall short of demand,driving ebay crazies
The retail increase will be promoted/accepted by inclusion of widgets of some kind.
If it has simple Vid Phone setup, the pretty girly girls will all Need That.
Gauranteed.
Apple's target,he top 1% do not care about costs. Certainly not cost in Hundreds. It is all junk, a thing to flaunt, to show off. That will be enough. The peasant classes
will tag along. This is a complete no-brainer.
How big is the high-end of the cellphone market? If you don't live in Asia or Europe, you might be surprised that the high-end is a lot bigger than you think.
Have you ever been in a Virtu store? Do you have any idea how many of these phones they sell? You probably don't. Why not? Because you're not the market. You don't hear about it because, frankly, you don't have enough money to buy one. And if you did have enough money, you wouldn't think it was worth it.
The fact is, the high end is filled with people who think, live, act, and make decisions differently than you do. There is no tradeoff between cost and anything else. In fact, cost doesn't exist - at that level, it's time that matters, not cost. You can always make money; it's time that you can't get back.
For this market, $600 is nothing. Does it make your live easier or better? If so, then it's worth it. Life is too short to use crappy products that aggravate you.
The only question, really is: is there enough of a high-end market out there? The answer is simple: yes. People bought iPods because they were easy, simple, and did the job. The iPhone won't be any different.
Apple is also wise to set this price point. It is just pricey-enough-sounding to make the device a little more elitist than the $49 Razr that every 12 year old seems to have. Getting the superstars and Paris-Hilton-models using their phone will make everyone want one, and as sales go up, prices tend to go down. Apple's biggest problem in the short run will be supply -- I guarantee they won't have enough to keep up with demand, even at $500.
Keep in mind that the Razr started as a $500 elitist product. This pricing strategy is known as walking down the price curve. It generally maximizes revenue, accounts for low volume parts and initial production runs with low yields, fits in very well with the customer's *willingness* to pay, etc. I think you are mistaken regarding its popularity though. It may be too large and the screen may be too vulnerable. I think it is more of a competitor for blackberry devices than mass market phones.
When choosing to buy an iPhone the question one asks is not "Are the features on the iPhone worth $500?" but instead "Are the features it has that i want in a mobile phone worth the $500 and can i get the same features for less?"
For all the glazed eyed drooling of the Apple fanatics out there at the "coolness" and "superior UI design" of the iPhone, most people will value the iPhone mostly on "does it do what i want cheaper or beter than the competition". Coolness and good-UI have a value, but they ain't overriding factors when it comes to mobile phones for most people.
My current phone has a UI that sucks (big time). However it is (somewhat) "cool" looking and, more importantly:
- It's small enough to put in a pocket in my pants without causing an unseemly bulge.
- It has bluetooth so i can easilly load stuff into it.
- I works well as a mobile phone.
Add MP3 playing to it's list of relevant features and you've got my next mobile phone.
Cool UI has a value but it's much less than $200 ($200 roughly being the difference between what i want and the iPhone)
If you are buying a $199 iPod nano you can simply pay $299 to upgrade to an iPhone and you've spent your $299 "luxury phone" budget and you got the state of the art. The iPod nano features are all there in the iPhone (plus video) except maybe the ability to strap it to your arm in the gym, but in that case there is the iPod shuffle only $79 that is only a $50 upgrade from a spare set of iPod headphones. These are all consumer prices. There is no unexplored territory here.
..
Jobs made the case for iPod sales cannibalization before he even announced the iPhone's price. He said people are paying $300 or more for a smartphone and then buying an iPod for another $199 but with the iPhone they get all that in one box for $499. It's very easy math. When you add in the desktop level Web browsing and Wi-Fi features you're reaching up to the plus $500 range and higher to get that feature. The iPhone can run full-scale modern Web applications because it's got the whole feature set, very similar to Firefox.
And once people are actually touching these things, then you get to measure the value of the interface and touch screen
If iLife, iWork, and other Apple produced software has it's universal installer work for installing on G4-G5 / Intel / and iPhone - I'd buy that iPhone for $500.
A whole real computer system, in a phone, with 8 GB of storage, and 1 GB of RAM.
Think of it as the Mac Mini Micro!
Add in a docking station to hook up a keyboard, mouse, 22" monitor, scanner, camera, DL DVD burner and external (to the phone) 500 GB hard drive. I'd pay up to $499 for that docking station (with the 500GB drive).
Then your computer IS your phone, with your most recently used applications and data files cached to the 8 GB of flash storage.
Plugged into the docking station - the iPhone is equivalant to the Mac Mini.
Select the Applications you want to run On the iPhone (say - iDVD and a handfull of movie clips).
Add some new video capture from the iPhone camera, and a few still photos, and sound recordings too.
Work on your DVD while riding the bus, waiting at airport, etc.
When you get back to your docking station, plug in your iPhone - burn your newly created DVD !
1 GB of RAM will run most OS X applications - DVD, iTunes, etc.
and on the iPhone, with the little screen, you could only look at one application at a time anyway.
Make the iPhone a REAL hand held computer, and I'd buy it and get rid of my laptop.
Good catch. It seems it was a grandson and not a son.
The iPhone is the ipod effect for the phone market. They make a high end top dollar Phone (like the $399 iPod was when it first came out with a 4GB HD) and afterward make more compatible cheaper versions that everyone else will buy. look at motorola V series.
I actually think that the iPhone will sell out, possibly before it is released. You might wanna watch out and place your pre-order... --------- www.mostofmymac.com
If a similar survey had been done before the iPod came out at its asking price the results would have been far worse