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Another Step Towards the Driverless Car

jtogel writes "At Essex, we have for some time been working on automatically learning how to race cars in simulation. It turns out that a combination of evolutionary algorithms and neural networks can learn how to beat all humans in racing games, and also come up with some quite interesting, novel behaviours, which might one day make their way into commercial racing games. While this is simulation, the race is now on for the real thing — we are setting up a competition for AI developers, where the goal is to win a race between model cars on real tracks. As the cars will be around half a meter long, the cost of participating will be a fraction of that for the famous DARPA Grand Challenge, whereas the challenges will be similar in terms of computer vision and AI."

224 comments

  1. In case of rapture by Harmonious+Botch · · Score: 5, Insightful

    At least now they won't cause accidents.

    Seriously, this is a technology whose time has come. Persuading elderly drivers to give up their cars is difficult, and the baby boom generation is putting a lot of people in that situation in the next decade or two.

    1. Re:In case of rapture by Adambomb · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I must say, I was envisioning disaster when contemplating a world with driving controlled by systems created by humans who arent there to react to unaccounted conditions. You make a bloody excellent point though. The fact that a significant enough percentage of drivers really should NOT be driving would make this a great opportunity. Make it either Opt-In or by Court Order to have to use such automation, and it looks better and better.

      I still would have to be VERY VERY sure of the system and see it tested out the wazoo before I would ever consider getting in one. I don't trust a team of EE and SE specialists to think of all the possible reactions they would need coded in for outlier situations. Even an autopilot for an airplane doesnt have to worry about falling trees, landslides, or elk...unless its a REALLY REALLY bad day at least...

      --
      Ice Cream has no bones.
    2. Re:In case of rapture by binarybum · · Score: 5, Funny

      Persuading elderly drivers to give up their cars is difficult

          Have you ever really tried? Sure they get ornery and wave their canes around a bit, but most of them are fairly frail and the task can be completed with ease. Sometimes they're confused and just think you're a valet - these ones will hand you the keys with a smile!

      --
      ôó
    3. Re:In case of rapture by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is a technology whose time will never come. The liability is, and always will be, enormous.

    4. Re:In case of rapture by WormholeFiend · · Score: 1

      Persuading elderly drivers to give up their cars is difficult

      Just tell them how easy it will be to find the farmers market...

    5. Re:In case of rapture by suv4x4 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Seriously, this is a technology whose time has come. Persuading elderly drivers to give up their cars is difficult, and the baby boom generation is putting a lot of people in that situation in the next decade or two.

      Not just, consider accident caused by drunk drivers, by drivers fell asleep, careless drivers...

      But don't expect a smooth transition. An "AI" driver could silently save thousands of lives, but the first cases where the AI was the reason for an accident will cause major outcries.

      It's the nature of human beings to react like that.

    6. Re:In case of rapture by timeOday · · Score: 1
      I don't think it's insurmountable. Air bags cause unnecessary death sometimes, but they're a big net gain and we keep them.

      I do think we'll see unmanned transport planes first, though. Flying is easy. There's less to crash into, you only land at a pre-set number of known locations, and planes can be much more expensive than cars to cover the costs of new technology.

    7. Re:In case of rapture by stratjakt · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I bet you can't wait to be stuck in a state run home, either.

      You're probably young, so the ageism can be explained.

      I know people in their 80s, perfectly capable of driving, and renewing their license.

      We don't need dorks mandating new technologies to use. We just need the DMV to do it's job, which is to make sure only qualified drivers are qualified to drive.

      --
      I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
    8. Re:In case of rapture by 70Bang · · Score: 1



      The issue of DARPA is still to be decided. There's a Grand Challenge 3 this fall, two years after #2 completed the desert challenge; i.e., they figured people would need two years for preparation. And that is for realistic traffic. Six hours, six miles...in Europe. There's a demo to be met by April 13. I'd be comfortable saying I've received 200 messages so far. They've been coming in pretty regularly since the May 1, '6 News Release (a two page PDF).


    9. Re:In case of rapture by Xymor · · Score: 3, Insightful

      How many traffic accidents are caused by human errors everyday?
      Drunk driving, Sleep driving, Stupid driving, Sick driving...
      Seriously, most people would benefit from an RELIABLE A.I. system to drive for them.

      Once AI systems are more reliable them us, then the time will be here.

    10. Re:In case of rapture by nernie · · Score: 1

      I think the title is a bit misleading--this isn't making any tangible step towards driverless cars. The reason why getting computers to drive in the real world is so hard is that the real world is so complex and unpredictable. Things like developing an automated controller for a real car are not trivial tasks, and there are countless unpredictable situations that will only come up when you try to drive a real car in the real world.

      This might be a fun idea, but I don't see it doing much towards removing the driver from the car. For that, I'm much more interested to see how the new Urban Challenge from DARPA turns out.

    11. Re:In case of rapture by suv4x4 · · Score: 1

      I don't think it's insurmountable. Air bags cause unnecessary death sometimes, but they're a big net gain and we keep them.

      I do think we'll see unmanned transport planes first, though. Flying is easy. There's less to crash into, you only land at a pre-set number of known locations, and planes can be much more expensive than cars to cover the costs of new technology.


      That's insightful, although I wonder if they will want to shift so much responsibilities for a so expensive machine onto AI for a plane. A pilot is held to much stricter requirements than a casual driver.

      I think we'll see various helpers gradually implemented in all of those transport vehicles, not giving the AI full autonomy. In fact we already have lots of electronic helpers, so this will be met with less resistance.

    12. Re:In case of rapture by Timbotronic · · Score: 1

      I don't think we're even remotely close to having vehicles that can be autonomous in all situations. There's certainly a solid case to be made for automatic driving on freeways and interstates. For one thing, widespread use of dynamic cruise control can significantly reduce traffic congestion by stopping the ripple effect caused by over braking.

      But urban settings with a lot of pedestrian traffic are a complete technical and legal nightmare. Then there's the issue of very poor quality roads or severe weather conditions where driving actually takes a fair bit of effort and judgement.

      I'd like to see the same kind of autopilot for cars that you see in small aircraft. In that case the pilot is still in controll when taxiing, for takeoffs, landings and emergencies. The autopilot kicks in elsewhere. For driving you'd be responsible for getting out of the 'burbs/city and onto a freeway before handing over. However, you'd still have to be prepared to take control for an emergency.

      --

      One of these days I'm moving to Theory - everything works there

    13. Re:In case of rapture by celkin · · Score: 1
      "Sure they get ornery and wave their canes around a bit"

      Or they call the AARP and try to take over America and demand more money in MediCare. South Park anyone?

      P. S. I don't understand HTML.

      --
      "Oh c'mon, I wumbo, you wumbo, he/she/me...wumbo, wumboed, womboing...wombology? The study of wumbo? It's first grade,
    14. Re:In case of rapture by GeneralAntilles · · Score: 1

      Sure as hell takes any fun out of the experience, though.

    15. Re:In case of rapture by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But when will AI systems be more reliable then us? I think the self-driving car is just one of those things that's always going to be 20 years away. Maybe they should try powering an AI system with cold fusion...

    16. Re:In case of rapture by NonSequor · · Score: 1

      You also have to consider how resilient such a system could be to tampering. If it relies on GPS (and I don't see how it wouldn't), then what will it do if I jam the GPS signal? Will the car know how to get off the road safely with the GPS data jammed? Can it still get to safety if I jam the signal near a busy highway and there are hundreds of cars trying to pull over at the same time?

      --
      My only political goal is to see to it that no political party achieves its goals.
    17. Re:In case of rapture by Dean+Hougen · · Score: 1

      I'd like to see the same kind of autopilot for cars that you see in small aircraft. In that case the pilot is still in controll when taxiing, for takeoffs, landings and emergencies.

      Planes frequently land themselves these days.

      Dean

    18. Re:In case of rapture by NerveGas · · Score: 2, Funny

      I just want it so I can sit in the rear seat and watch a movie, play video games, work, whatever. Hey, put some "limo-black" tint on the rear windows, recline the seats, and get jiggy while your car cruises down the highway. You can't beat that.

      --
      Oh, you're not stuck, you're just unable to let go of the onion rings.
    19. Re:In case of rapture by Timbotronic · · Score: 1

      Planes frequently land themselves these days.

      Small aircraft don't. Not unless you're very lucky anyway!

      --

      One of these days I'm moving to Theory - everything works there

    20. Re:In case of rapture by Dun+Malg · · Score: 1

      You also have to consider how resilient such a system could be to tampering. If it relies on GPS (and I don't see how it wouldn't), then what will it do if I jam the GPS signal? Will the car know how to get off the road safely with the GPS data jammed? Can it still get to safety if I jam the signal near a busy highway and there are hundreds of cars trying to pull over at the same time? Don't be daft. You're overthinking it. It certainly wouldn't use GPS for anything more than coarse navigation, as even an optimistic 2 meter accuracy is insufficient to keep you in your own lane. Maneuver will likely be managed with optical sensors. Is there a problem with people shining spotlights in each others eyes on the road today? Unlikely it will be a problem when it's robots driving either.
      --
      If a job's not worth doing, it's not worth doing right.
    21. Re:In case of rapture by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah! Fuck the poor!

    22. Re:In case of rapture by Don_dumb · · Score: 1

      The fact that a significant enough percentage of drivers really should NOT be driving would make this a great opportunity.
      For those who aren't aware Essex in the UK is synonymous with terrible drivers (it is the home of 'boy racers') so it is just a little ironic that their Uni is the one trying to find a replacement for human drivers.
      --
      If this were really happening, what would you think?
    23. Re:In case of rapture by CastrTroy · · Score: 1

      I've always thought the whole driverless car idea was crazy due to the liability issues. Right now when somebody gets in a car crash, most of the time it's blamed on human error, and the car company is not at fault. When the car company is found at fault (Firestone tires?) they end up paying through the nose and lose a lot of money. Once you start making driverless cars, every accident becomes the fault of the car company. Not just fatal crashes, but all the other little bumps and bangs that happen. What about black ice? What about kids darting in front of the car? All of a sudden you'll be able to sue the company for anything that happens, because you aren't in control, the car is.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    24. Re:In case of rapture by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We've essentially got the unmanned planes now, if we want them. Autopilots can do all functions of a flight. Pilots still don't like that (no surprise, of course), and the liability concerns for the airlines are simply enormous, so it hasn't happened yet.

      So I think we'd see it in cars before planes. The consequences of a problem are significantly smaller (one or two people versus over a hundred, etc), for one, which will provide less disincentive for the manufacturers. Plus people are lazy. Sure, there are people who love driving, but if I could sleep or read or something through the daily commute, I'd love to. I'd pay extra for it. On the other hand, the cost of a pilot and copilot probably isn't a big factor in the cost of the flight and aircraft.

    25. Re:In case of rapture by Dog-Cow · · Score: 1

      You have no real idea what ironic means, do you? If Essex is the home of bad driving, it makes perfect sense for a nearby University to do research in replacing the drivers. It's not ironic in the least.

    26. Re:In case of rapture by Don_dumb · · Score: 1

      Yeah, good point. Consider me corrected.

      --
      If this were really happening, what would you think?
    27. Re:In case of rapture by smellsofbikes · · Score: 4, Insightful

      What we NEED is the same thing pilots do: recurrent training and tests every other year to make sure you're still able to run a vehicle safely: medical, knowledge, and performance tests. You fail, you're out, until you've gotten your skills back into compliance.

      It isn't the middle-aged who oppose this plan.

      --
      Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
    28. Re:In case of rapture by f97tosc · · Score: 1

      Seriously, this is a technology whose time has come. No, it hasn't. The posted story is really cool, and the results are awesome. Also, the title is quite to the point: "Another step towards...". There are quite a few steps to go. For one thing, there is a BIG difference between results in a simulated 2D world and a real 3D world. Having worked in one of the Grand Challenge teams, I can say that usually the greatest problem is often to understand the surrounding envrionment in order to make the right inferences and decisions. How do you distinguish a stone, a shadow, a curb, sensor noise, a person, an empty vehicle, a driving vehicle, a cloud of dust, etc, from a video feed and some laser distance sensors? In real time?
  2. Robot research in academia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    equals bullshit. And I ain't no troll.

  3. Oblig by commisaro · · Score: 2, Funny

    I for one welcome our new automated race-car overlords.

    1. Re:Oblig by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From Essex, it's got to be an Escort Cabriolet, surely?

  4. A possible use by dosius · · Score: 1

    I wonder if a driving android can be constructed.

    *RUNS*

    -uso.

    --
    What you hear in the ear, preach from the rooftop Matthew 10.27b
  5. In Soviet Russia... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ....car drives you!

  6. In racing games I try to crash and burn by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    Somehow I doubt that using my actions during a racing game where I don't actually die and can push beyond reasonable limits on actions is a good source for data for driving simulations.

    I know ... why not use GTA: San Andreas for the data?

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
    1. Re:In racing games I try to crash and burn by vivaoporto · · Score: 1

      I would go for Carmageddon, the father of all gore car games :D

    2. Re:In racing games I try to crash and burn by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      Because then the car will automatically take you to where the hookers are.

      Of course, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    3. Re:In racing games I try to crash and burn by Kuroji · · Score: 1

      Because we want our cars to drive us to work, not get the unique stunt jumps. Doing that on autopilot takes all the fun out of it!

  7. Re:In case of rapture or old folks driving by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 4, Funny

    Persuading elderly drivers to give up their cars is difficult, and the baby boom generation is putting a lot of people in that situation in the next decade or two.

    I find backing over them works fairly well.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  8. Not just for older drivers by rolfwind · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I would love to have a driverless car: let me get some work or reading done while lounging in the back seat (safer) of my car while it is driving me through the daily rush hour. Because I can get work done, I can either drive off later or am in less of a rush to get where I'm going. No more tedious trips of hours upon hours of driving.

    Lower insurance premiums - and if the car has an fender bender, I can point to the manufacturer and hopefully won't be branded as an unsafe driver for life if I didn't do the driving. Safer roads for all. A recent study (posted on /. I think) said humans have trouble paying consistent attention to anything for an extended period of time without having our minds wander:

    http://www.localnewswatch.com/skyvalley/stories/in dex.php?action=fullnews&id=80157

    We'd be more safe.

    No traffic tickets - the AI can go closer to the speed limit than I have the patience to (now if they didn't consistently set the speed limit too low in a ton of places just to be asshats and be able to write tickets when they need the money....)

    Seriously, this isn't just for the elderly. Driving ceased to be fun for me long ago. If I had to do it only once a week on a nice stretch of fast highway, I might feel differently....

    1. Re:Not just for older drivers by Ford+Prefect · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I would love to have a driverless car: let me get some work or reading done while lounging in the back seat (safer) of my car while it is driving me through the daily rush hour. Because I can get work done, I can either drive off later or am in less of a rush to get where I'm going. No more tedious trips of hours upon hours of driving.

      Why not catch a train or bus to work?
      --
      Tedious Bloggy Stuff - hooray?
    2. Re:Not just for older drivers by rolfwind · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Time to my daily grind: 40 minutes one way. Parking 3 minutes walk to destination. 43 minutes total.

      Bus: Have a stop locally - 5 minutes walk. Take bus to a central station - 1 hour 5 minutes. Take second bus, unknown wait, to destination - 40 more minutes. 10 minutes walk to destination. 1h55m minimum.

      No thanks.

      Train? None here. I don't live in the city.

    3. Re:Not just for older drivers by celkin · · Score: 1

      Not everyone lives and/or works in a big city.

      --
      "Oh c'mon, I wumbo, you wumbo, he/she/me...wumbo, wumboed, womboing...wombology? The study of wumbo? It's first grade,
    4. Re:Not just for older drivers by drsquare · · Score: 1

      No traffic tickets - the AI can go closer to the speed limit than I have the patience to
      So if you're forced to go at the speed limit, it would take much longer to get to your destination than with a normal car. I don't see how this is an advantage.
    5. Re:Not just for older drivers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "None here. I don't live in the city."

      Well, that is your choice. I don't think you can use this as an excuse without justifying it in some way.

    6. Re:Not just for older drivers by bkr1_2k · · Score: 1

      That's a fallacy for any trip that is a "normal" commute, at highway speeds anyway. Well, assuming "much longer" is on the order of tens of minutes instead of single minutes. The time difference to go 16 miles (the average commute distance for US drivers) at 55 versus 75 is less than five minutes. I don't know about you but 5 minutes is worth far less to me than the idea of a relaxed drive to work where I can read the paper, or some work-related documents for the whole 17 minutes it takes to get there.

      Then again, I think automated cars are a very scary scenario unless everyone is forced to have one. Too many unknowns to account for without a person who can react. Sure, the computer can probably react faster, but only if it has the same prediction capabilities that I have as far as looking at other drivers, not just the action of their vehicles. I've avoided plenty of accidents by paying attention to the driver and reacting before their car started moving "unpredictably". Someone is busy talking to a friend while they're merging, or they're looking in the rear-view mirror checking on the kids or what-have you. That kind of behavior can be seen by a human driver (who makes the effort) but won't be noticed by an AI until after the other driver starts doing something wrong with respect to vehicle movement. That may be a split second, but it's enough for me to not like the idea of automated control over some vehicles and not all of them.

      And I work with unmanned vehicles for a living.

      --
      "Growing old is inevitable; growing up is optional."
    7. Re:Not just for older drivers by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      When I lived in San Francisco I had to take a bus, the muni train, and a bus to get to work if I didn't want to drive. Time to work in the car: twenty minutes or less including parking at the foot of Potrero Hill where there are far less spaces than cars in the neighborhood. Time to get there on public transit: At least an hour and a half. Usually more because the bus would rarely meet up with the MUNI in a timely fashion. I estimated at the time that it cost me about 25% more money in bus fare than it did in gas, too. And this is in one of the cities with a "good" public transportation system, at least for the USA.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    8. Re:Not just for older drivers by drsquare · · Score: 1

      The difference between 60mph and 40mph is getting there a third earlier, i.e. in twenty minutes rather than thirty. Even a five minute saving can mean the difference between getting a parking space and having to park at down the road. Even if the time savings aren't that high, it definitely feels faster. I hate going slow, especially when stuck behind some old cunt on an afternoon drive...

      I wouldn't want to read the paper in the car anyway. For one I don't read papers and two it'd make me sick, especially on the roads I drive on.

    9. Re:Not just for older drivers by evilgiu · · Score: 1

      I guess that the point would be getting AI controlled transportation units which you could take anywhere on the system and would stop anywhere you needed to go. Ok, so that's cabs for you. That's what public transport should be a huge mass of cabs. People shoudn't have to own cars anymore. The problem with current public transport (except for cabs) is that no matter how good it is, it mostly never gets you "quite there" where you could get with your own car or a cab. And it also takes more time. This is because when hauling 40 people in a bus, it has to make stops for many people to either get off or on it. Making lots of AI cabs move together in a constant flux seems pretty straight-forward, it's like the metro. The secret lies in how to make the units get in and out of the main traffic flow to make those individual stops. "Minority Report" and "I, Robot" were 2 films where interesting traffic solutions were depicted albeit maintaining the concept of private cars. But the same problem is still out there to be cracked: making it flow is easy, finding a way to enter/exit the system without incurring in multiple stops is a killer. Elevated or underground lanes?

      --
      It's not easy being green.
  9. Aww, can't get to Starbucks? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What's wrong? Get stuck behind a driver who understands the concept of a speed limit?

    Seriously, you can complain about elderly drivers once there's some sort of infrastructure in place to ensure that they don't *need* to drive themselves about.

    1. Re:Aww, can't get to Starbucks? by heinousjay · · Score: 2, Informative

      Understanding the speed limit is one thing. Driving under the speed limit in the left lane during rush hour is altogether a different story.

      --
      Slashdot - where whining about luck is the new way to make the world you want.
  10. Forza 2 by atomicstrawberry · · Score: 1

    I recall the Forza 2 team commenting just recently that their AI drivers were being powered by neural networks which they'd managed to train to the point that they were actually using some extremely cool braking and steering behaviors that they had never been taught. This seems quite similar.

    1. Re:Forza 2 by jtogel · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I don't know much about the techniques underlying Forza 2, but I went over and talked to the guys who worked on Forza 1, and we compared our approaches. At least for the first game, what they are actually using is recorded trajectories on different track segments which are then spliced together at the junctions of segments, so as to create similar-looking behaviours on unseen tracks. The problem here is of course that the new tracks are constrained to being constructed out of the same segments as the driver has already been tested on - there is no generalization. The track designers for Forza simply had to live with this constraint.

      We have ourselves gotten player modelling working fine with evolutionary neural networks, which can generalize, but the Forza team didn't consider these techniques reliable and fast enough in time for the release of the original game. Maybe things have changed with Forza 2.

      There is some information on the Forza AI on http://research.microsoft.com/mlp/forza/, and our approach to modelling is described in http://julian.togelius.com/Togelius2006Making.pdf.

      Note that all this is about modelling behaviour, not about creating new behaviour from scratch; there are some papers on this on my website as well.

  11. Reminds me of RARS by KlaymenDK · · Score: 1

    http://rars.sourceforge.net/
    Anyone have first-hand experience of how that is coming along? Can you program these with neural nets also, or still "just" hand-coded? (My own experience is nigh on a decade old.)

  12. Not driverless by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No no no! I don't want a driverless car, I want a car with native linux drivers!

    Who doesn't want a scandinavian driver?

  13. say goodknight by User+956 · · Score: 1

    Thats great and all, but will the AI-enabled cars also come with an afro wig and a black leather jacket? Oh, and they should probably be bulletproof.

    --
    The theory of relativity doesn't work right in Arkansas.
  14. Oblig by PixieDust · · Score: 0

    In Soviet Russia, car drives YOU.

  15. Where are the Competition Specifications? by TempeNerd · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The links go to an AI presentation of virtual cars and a news release saying there will be a competition without any details about the competition. Did I miss something? Is the only news that they have developed neural nets to drive a virtual car?

    The competition sounds like a manageable project for academics (versus the DARPA event).

    Is the competition still in the vapor-ware or maybe-someday stage?

    Anyone have a link (perhaps IEEE) that has details?

  16. I would love one by icj · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Being legally classed as being blind, I would love to have a driverless car. I would live the independance it would bring.

    1. Re:I would love one by KlaymenDK · · Score: 1

      Having near perfect vision, I too would love to have a driverless car. I too would love the independence it would bring.

      For years I've been thinking that we should make something like a TCP/IP for traffic (taking into account limited acceleration and taking collision avoidance much more seriously of course). Self-steering and indeed, self-driving, cars should make this a whole lot more plausible.

      The difficulty in a change-over will as always lie in dealing with the part of the population who does not want to let go of the wheel (for reasons of trust or sport).

    2. Re:I would love one by KlaymenDK · · Score: 1

      As an AC pointed out, I was being insensitive. I apologize sincerely.

    3. Re:I would love one by try_anything · · Score: 1

      I think I would keep a close eye on my TTL. Who would be in charge of enforcing that, anyway?

  17. Am I the only one? by frosty_tsm · · Score: 1

    The courses he uses remind me of courses from Super Off Road.

  18. The Important Question by PixieDust · · Score: 0, Redundant
    Everyone's forgetting the REAL question here.

    Will these complex neural networks be running on Linux? Or can we expect Windows sludge?

    1. Re:The Important Question by jtogel · · Score: 1

      ...and for once, this important questions is actually answered: these neural networks are running on Linux right as I write this!

    2. Re:The Important Question by Harmonious+Botch · · Score: 2, Funny

      If it's windows, we'll have the red screen of death.

    3. Re:The Important Question by celkin · · Score: 1

      I think most people would prefer an iCar--an all-white exterior, an aqua interior, a dashboard full of random widgets, a blue Apple logo on the front, and when you upgrade the system to 10.4.9, it immediately takes the lives of many innocent people. P. S. I have a very old Windows laptop that has never crashed once and doesn't freeze up or catch viruss. It just runs slowly because Windows XP was not intended for a 5.5GB hard drive, so saying that all PC's crash all the time is as bad as those Dish Network commercials showing cable TV as always having a fuzzy, oscillating picture. They're just trying to scare you into buying their product. Hmm...my off-topic rant is longer than my main comment. Oh well, I mean what I said. Macs and satellite TV really grind my gears!!

      --
      "Oh c'mon, I wumbo, you wumbo, he/she/me...wumbo, wumboed, womboing...wombology? The study of wumbo? It's first grade,
  19. Can't help it... by Idbar · · Score: 1

    This might sound like the windows based car....
    "Sometimes the outcome of the race is that both cars find themselves stuck against some wall."

    1. Re:Can't help it... by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      stuck against some wall.

      Stuck against some wall is Microsoft market-speak for "crashed and burned."

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    2. Re:Can't help it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      hahaha did you here the one abuot windows bing sucky!

      LooooLocoopter

      asl?

    3. Re:Can't help it... by Idbar · · Score: 1

      You got the point...

      although... silly me... I think I read "struck"

  20. Traffic by et764 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    A few months ago I was thinking about doing something like this, but in heavy traffic situations. What if the course had way more cars than should ever actually fit, and the cars independently tried to minimize their travel time around the course. I wonder if the computer could get a better overall throughput than people seem to do on the crowded highways of, say, Seattle.

    1. Re:Traffic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would be insanely easy for an AI to do better throughput than traditional driving in high traffic situations. People in general follow a greedy algorithm, which if you think about it is pretty obviously subpar.

      One person needs to change lanes to exit, but nobody will let them in. Eventually they just have to cut in front of someone and that lane comes to a standstill for a few seconds. That few second pause takes /forever/ to disappear if there is a solid line of cars behind it. The "slowdown wave" just travels backwards until traffic is thin enough that it tapers off. An AI could avoid this simply by being "nice" and leaving space, or slowing down a little bit to let drivers in. Obviously this could be done without an AI if everyone magically became a lot less greedy drivers, but I think we all know that's not going to happen.

      This is just one example of how we drive being horrible overall, there are a bunch similar to this.

      Another one that always gets me: when you're next at a stop light that turns green, consider how much faster you could get going if everyone hit the gas at the same time. Things like this would require a centralized system of some kind, but AI drivers are a good first step. Too bad it will never happen (the liability issue, which would require serious government commitment and intervention to avoid).

    2. Re:Traffic by et764 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I think the reason why we don't all start accelerating at the same time when the light turns green is that we normally stop closer to the car in front of us than we are comfortable driving. I frequently stop less than a car length behind the one in front of me at a light, but I don't feel comfortable driving that close behind a car. The reason for the lag is to leave a comfortable distance between you and the person in front of you.

    3. Re:Traffic by Nethead · · Score: 1

      I know that a computer could do better VOTING for traffic solutions than Seattle does. Can we say Monorail, and Viaduct? Maybe New Evergreen Point Floating Bridge?

      --
      -- I have a private email server in my basement.
    4. Re:Traffic by TheThiefMaster · · Score: 1

      No, the reason for the lag is that it takes time to notice that the car in front is moving, and it takes time to get your car to start moving. More-so in a manual car, because you might have to put it in gear or whatever. It may only be a couple of seconds, but it adds up fairly quickly.

    5. Re:Traffic by Bwian_of_Nazareth · · Score: 1

      The problem with getting going at the same time when the light turns green is that when the front car brakes, the reaction time of the car behind it is not zero. You need to allow some safe distance between the cars. And that distance depends on speed.

    6. Re:Traffic by JonathanR · · Score: 1

      Which means the drivers who are really paying attention, are watching the car in front of the car in front (amongst other things) for clues as to when to get their shit together.

  21. Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Original+Replica · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Make it either Opt-In or by Court Order

    Now this, to me, is a very important distiction. What if for this to work well, all the cars have to be computer controlled? What if computer control is then mandated? This is a whole new exciting level of "nanny government". Sure this might be safer in that there would be fewer auto accidents, but do you really want all transportation to be centrally controlled? Sure each car might be autonomous at first, but emergency workers need the ability to remotely turn on off, right? It's for everyone's safety.

    --
    We are all just people.
    1. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by codemachine · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are certainly control and privacy issues in automation, as well who is liability in case of an error (which is probably the one thing that won't be overcome - lawyers will never allow it).

      But on the other hand, getting killed in an automobile is much too common, especially given that almost everyone has to travel in one at some point, if not very frequently. Getting around shouldn't be so bloody dangerous considering how ubiquitous it is. Imagine not every having to let drunks choose between being responsible vs driving home drunk. And imagine not ever having to be on the road where some random drunk or incompetent driver, can end your life at any instant, where it is just bad luck that puts you in this spot.

      Automobiles are an outdated and obsolete technology, or at least should be. The problem is coming up with and implementing the "next step" when the current technology is so ingrained into our society and city planning. It is a very non-trivial problem to come up with something better, and another non-trivial problem to "upgrade" to that something better on a live production world.

    2. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not like there would need to be any real new laws to mandate this either. We already have operating licenses, registration fees, roadworthiness inspections, emissions standards, seatbelt laws, we have the precedent of implied consent... what you do in your car in a public place is not your own business whether or not it's dangerous and whether or not you're infringing upon anyone's rights in the process. If the supposed "public good" dictates that only AIs should be allowed to drive cars on public roadways they could put it into action tomorrow.

    3. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by droopycom · · Score: 3, Funny

      You are free to walk. (for the time being).

    4. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Short+Circuit · · Score: 1

      In such a world, more people would apply aftershave once they got to work, else their car would leave them in the driveway.

    5. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by 56ker · · Score: 1

      Science fiction becomes science fact. The American armed forces already have vehicles that can drive themselves - I remember at least one story by Asimov of a world where cars drove themselves. In that - technology got to the stage where the manufacturers insisted the government legislate compulsory AI driving and accidents disappeared overnight.

      The other posters fears about unaccounted for circumstances are unfounded. If there was some problem with the program it would default to safe mode (eg car would stop).

      We have autopilot on planes (in fact even planes that can land and take off by themselves), we have satellite navigation, we have remote driving of cars - so why not go the whole way and allow an artificial intelligence to do it?

      The problem is programs thrive on predictibility, even with built in radar, two camera so it can judge distance etc the drivers on the road are always going to act in a way the computer can't predict (foreigners trying to drive on the wrong side, drunk drivers, drivers talking on their cellphone or listening to the radio distracting them from driving). Like TECAS in planes I'm sure AI could now be used as a collision warning/automatic avoidance system in cars which would massively reduce accidents (even if only one car in a potential collision was fitted).

      Computers have evolved in leaps and bounds, whereas the car with slight modifications (legal requirement on miles per a gallon, safety standards, no man with red flag and 4mph speed limit any more) has stayed the same for nearly 100 years. It's time that hardware manufacturers realised that they can increase their market share by showing they care about the safety of their consumers (drivers) beyond just airbags by concentrating on the software than runs the car as well as the contest as to top speed etc...

      A lot of the more advanced features in cars are seen at the professional racing circuit though. As cars are now made by robots, you could even have an AI program design a car by evolutionary programming - I wonder what would it would turn out (obviously dependent on the parameters - eg fuel efficient or hybrid (solar/gas, LPG/petrol), seats so many people, cost of production etc). It's time there was innovation (eg electric car) in the auto market and we realised that the price of oil is only going to go up (as well as the environmental consequences to our health - noticed the rise in asthma in Britain and America anyone - think traffic pollution might be related or an exacerbating factor)?

    6. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by inviolet · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Getting around shouldn't be so bloody dangerous considering how ubiquitous it is. Imagine not every having to let drunks choose between being responsible vs driving home drunk. And imagine not ever having to be on the road where some random drunk or incompetent driver, can end your life at any instant, where it is just bad luck that puts you in this spot.

      The safety aspect is definitely a selling point. But that's not the killer app.

      The killer app for AI cars is: traffic throughput. Right now, traffic throughput is limited by our need to leave lots of space in front of our car so that we don't hit the guy in front of us. This creates low throughput through traffic lights because everyone must wait for the person in front of them to move away, before starting to move too. AI would need none of that.

      Ditto for freeway merges and weaves. AI could weave two lanes of cars together with ease... even without central automation or inter-car communication. All that is needed is a sufficiently standardized algorithm or a sufficiently clever computer. Our brains already do the same, even when the "DriveCar.exe" process is set to low priority in favor of a ringing cellphone.

      Can you imagine how fast traffic could move if (to name just one benefit) everyone rolled forward instantly when the light turned green? And if nobody slowed down to rubberneck a roadside accident?

      The implementation problem might solve itself too. Once AI cars prove their mettle, I can imagine that cities will designate more and more lanes as "AI only", with attendant increases in speed limit and throughput. Sort of like how HOV lanes work today. Soon we'll all be clamoring for an AI car in order to get the same benefits.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    7. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Nazlfrag · · Score: 1

      Yeah, just don't try to cross the road without your AICAR Pedestrian RFID tag.

    8. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      I don't know what all the fuss is about. I've been driving for 20 years, done some reckless stuff and had a few accidents. I haven't been killed once.

      Actually the chances of getting killed in a automobile accident are pretty low compared to other forms of death. I'm not sure I will trade in my freedom for the security of these low changes. Simple things like following the posted speed limit and slowing down when condition deteriorate and looking at the other traffic and hazards while your driving can change your probability of being killed in an automobile accident to almost nothing. This must be why there are laws about the speed and the driving schools most states require first time license applicants talks about situational awareness.

    9. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The other posters fears about unaccounted for circumstances are unfounded. If there was some problem with the program it would default to safe mode (eg car would stop)
      That would be great if there was a way to make sure every other car would stop too.

      We have autopilot on planes (in fact even planes that can land and take off by themselves), we have satellite navigation, we have remote driving of cars - so why not go the whole way and allow an artificial intelligence to do it?
      There are some differences here. First that aren't near as many plane with autopilot and those capabilities compared to cars. Second, the planes flight is planned and all the other planes are aware of possible close calls. You simply couldn't do this with cars and have the level of communications you would have with planes. Planes have control towers that follow the planes and inform others of them. Not only can they go around the traffic, they have the ability to go above or below. We don't have that with current cars. And finally, planes use expensive radars that look not only for objects but weather hazards that let the autopilot or pilot adjusting the outopilot to make adjustments.

      The problem is programs thrive on predictibility, even with built in radar, two camera so it can judge distance etc the drivers on the road are always going to act in a way the computer can't predict (foreigners trying to drive on the wrong side, drunk drivers, drivers talking on their cellphone or listening to the radio distracting them from driving). Like TECAS in planes I'm sure AI could now be used as a collision warning/automatic avoidance system in cars which would massively reduce accidents (even if only one car in a potential collision was fitted).
      There are some cars, And I'm sorry i forget their brand, that use sonar to gauge the distance of the vehicle in front of you while driving. It you get too close for your speed, it give an audible warning followed with cutting of engine power and finally applying slight pressure the the brakes as you get closer. You can override this in some situations by depressing the gas peddle. In California, Going across the hills in hte snow prone areas, there are sensors imbeded in the roadway that allow the snowplows to check if they are in their lanes during whiteout and low visibility conditions. So, yes, they are being used as tools to assist the driver in being safe. I would hope it becomes more usable in the future with more applications being available.

      Some of the challenges to having this would be making sure all the systems can inter operate with every other manufacturer, Putting some sort of traffic control system in place other then regular streetlight and stop signs, and embedding some sort of positioning system that is more accurate then GPS. (remember that darpa challenge entry who was disabled by a drop in the GPS signaling over some sort of correction)

      I think we are a long way from using them in mass on the open road.
    10. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by zCyl · · Score: 1

      Automobiles are an outdated and obsolete technology, or at least should be. The problem is coming up with and implementing the "next step" when the current technology is so ingrained into our society and city planning.

      Not to mention the fact that half of the people on the planet do not live in cities, and these are the people who usually have to travel farthest. City planning does not universally solve the problem of transportation.
    11. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Voltageaav · · Score: 1

      And this information came from where? More people I know have been severely injured or killed in automobile accidents than anything else. As a matter of fact, I can't think of anything that even comes close. As to your personal experience, that's what I call luck. Here's some data to back it up. http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/about/about.htm

      --
      Someone save me from this sanity.
    12. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Informative

      In 2004, your chances of dieing from some other cause then an automobile accident was so much greater.

      The page you listed showed figures of 43,354 people dies form injuries sustained ion a car crash. I have figure for 2003, or 2004. Assuming they are the same (and I don't believe the war deaths are counted because they are overseas and not in the US.) or similar in 2004, the totale number of deaths in the US was 2,398,343. This means that 2,354,989 Died from other causes. Thats a pretty big number compared to automobile accidents. 61,472 people died form the Influenza and Pneumonia alone in 2004. That is roughly 40% more then those who died from a car crash.

      Do you realize how small of a number this is? When more people catch a bad cold, developer Influenza/Pneumonia and die from it is greater then the total number of deaths related to car accidents in 2000?

      I'm not saying that those 43,354 people are insignificant or anything. I'm just saying we have better ways to spend out money. We have better places to concentrate on reducing deaths. Some day I would like to say less people dies from car accident but even less died from cancer or heart disease. Those two alone account for 1,204,362 deaths in 2004. That is about thirty times the amount of car accidents. And most car accidents deaths can be reduced if people simply followed the rules of the road and took caution during dangerous conditions.

      Did you know you could be cited for speeding if you didn't even go the posted speed limit in most states? It is called too fast for road conditions and usually accompany a loss of control citation after an accident. According to this site the most common causes of accidents is driver not paying attention. This includes not following the posted speed limits or following to close and so on. Check it out.

    13. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >Not to mention the fact that half of the people on the planet do not live in cities, and these are the people who usually have to travel farthest.

      It's probably worth mentioning that the vast majority of this half of the population can't afford to buy cars...A lot of them cannot afford a bicycle. While some of them spend 4 hours a day fetching water, it's a fair bet that most live where rhey work.

    14. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Walk where? I can either walk in a ditch or on the side of the road. Both are dangerous.

    15. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Snart+Barfunz · · Score: 5, Funny

      Just a small point - marketing driverless car software as a 'killer app' - probably a bad idea.

      --
      --- Yx3 = Delilah ---
    16. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by stygianguest · · Score: 1

      What about getting rid of traffic lights alltogether? If everybody has AI controlled vehicles, they could solve the crossroads problems in far superior ways. Both faster and more fuel efficient. The cars wouldn't have to stop, they can just adjust there velocities a little to prevent collisions. Imagine how completely insane (and cool) crossroads would look when cars never stop and miss eachother by mere inches! For a preview visit for example india.

      Hmm, I don't think I can see much room for pedestrians or bikes in the future. Well, unless we all carry some kind of gps locator that informs the cars etc of your position. Since people aren't that fast, it might be enough to adjust the cars' heading and velocities. People could be crossing roads without looking at all with cars racing past them at top speeds. I feel old even thinking about it.

    17. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by CheeseTroll · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The difference between dying in an auto accident and dying from pneumonia or cancer, is that auto accidents occur without warning, and affect people at *any* age, regardless of their health situation. Was I sad when my grandparents passed away? Of course, but at 90+ years of age, it was hardly what I'd call a tragic death. The same could not be said if my wife or kids were killed in an auto accident.

      --
      A post a day keeps productivity at bay.
    18. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by CastrTroy · · Score: 1

      You could remove the traffic lights in a lot of situations. If the cars knew where the other cars were, you wouldn't have to wait at a red light. You could still have crosswalks which would stop the cars so cyclists and pedestrians could cross, but you would get rid of a lot of useless traffic lights.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    19. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can you imagine how fast traffic could move if (to name just one benefit) everyone rolled forward instantly when the light turned green? And if nobody slowed down to rubberneck a roadside accident? Not much better at Traffic Lights. The peak flow accross the stop line is reached ~1 sec after the green starts.

      The real saving for traffic signals (lights) would be the reduction in intergreen. The could save quite a ~10 seconds per cycle.

    20. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Dog-Cow · · Score: 1

      Most people I know who have died, did so due to old age, disease or disease caused by old age. You really live in a strange place if the automobile is the leading cause of death. In fact, I can think of only 2 people I have known that were killed in automobile crashes. And one was murdered by a drunk driver.

    21. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      Sure, And I bet you would have been just as sad and tragic if you would have lost your wife or kids to pneumonia or cancer.

      I'm not trying to take anything away or belittle their deaths.

    22. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by CheeseTroll · · Score: 1

      Of course, that would also be tragic. But compare the numbers of deaths caused by illness in young people, to the number of auto accidents, and I think auto accidents will stand out more as something that ought to be actively avoided.

      The OP was comparing the # of auto-related deaths to the *total* # of deaths. Death is inevitable, obviously, but there are ways to put it off for a while.

      --
      A post a day keeps productivity at bay.
    23. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by drinkypoo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The killer app for AI cars is: traffic throughput. Right now, traffic throughput is limited by our need to leave lots of space in front of our car so that we don't hit the guy in front of us.

      Yes, and later, traffic throughput will be limited by the need to leave lots of space in front of the car so that if the car in front of us suffers an equipment failure (not necessarily computer-related; a blowout qualifies) the computers have time to work out a solution that doesn't involve collision.

      Certain realities of physics make it a good idea (or even a necessity) to not have cars tailgating one another, even if they are automated and much better drivers than humans are.

      It would make far more sense just to replace the highways with rail lines, load cars onto trains, and ship them places. Then the cars can be loaded literally on top of one another.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    24. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by TGZubby · · Score: 1

      Stop Lights? What are those? With sufficient automation and car-to-car communication the cars can just shoot the gaps... no stopping required.

    25. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Do you realize how small of a number this is? When more people catch a bad cold, developer Influenza/Pneumonia and die from it is greater then the total number of deaths related to car accidents in 2000? I'm not saying that those 43,354 people are insignificant or anything. I'm just saying we have better ways to spend out money.

      Well, that's true. Twice this many people die every year just from bad drug interactions or drug allergies.

      You're actually more likely to be killed by the hospital than just about anything else... Alcohol-related deaths come close, though.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    26. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by notmuchtosay · · Score: 1

      I certainly agree that a car accident isn't the most likely way I'm going to die, but depending on the demographic it is more important. According to CDC and TSF data for someone 15-24 30% of the deaths are car accidents. It goes down in both directions from there. That seems to be a fairly high percentage.

      I think the other issue would be car accidents are very much preventable. Like you said driver distraction is a major reason for accidents. If people were more responsible with driving deaths probably would go down, alternatively if people were removed from driving than accidents would probably go down.

      Finally while the most important result of a car accident is death, however there are other consequences. Property damage and injury (308,000 Incapacitating, 759,000 non-Incapacitating, and 1,721,000 other) are important factors. A car accident can end someone's ability to work or cause a permanent drain on their funds due to an injury.

    27. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Original+Replica · · Score: 1

      "The other posters fears about unaccounted for circumstances are unfounded. If there was some problem with the program it would default to safe mode (eg car would stop)."

      That is precisely the problem. My worry isn't about a computer malfunction, it's more a worry of government malfunction. The more you concentrate power, the greater it's corrupting effects. What if your car wouldn't let you go to a protest? Or it "froze up" on your way to vote? I know this sounds 1984 paranoid, but this is the perfect tool for controling: who goes where. It's one more bit of personal responsiblity that we are so eager to give away the Uncle Sam.

      --
      We are all just people.
    28. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by rjstegbauer · · Score: 1

      I've been thinking about automated cars since I was about 10.

      I'm guessing that Car-to-Car communication will be required at some point, along with the other radar, vision, and infrared sensors. I think that infrared will be important to distinguish between a rock and a person. It's not perfect, but may be required in failure scenarios.

      I've also dreamt about the possibilities of never stopping for a stoplight, flying through just inches from the other cars. If that ever does come true, then the cars would have to block out the windows, so that the passengers don't have heart attacks and DIE. Like someone else mentioned...this could be the killer-app for cars. I wonder how long that would take to get used to?

      OTOH, this may also be one of those intractable problems and may never ever happen. I know that it will not be possible in my lifetime.

      Oh well,
      Randy.

    29. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I like the idea of dedicated limited-access lanes with a check in station. If you are on the highway you must be CC: your CC must be on to enter (or the gate won't open) and turning off your CC en route would be an offence similar to driving the wrong way on the interstate.

      This implementation would be cheap and incremental and also has a historical precedent.

      In the simplest implementation one could separate an underused HOV lane using regular concrete dividers. Access would be through standard manned or automatic toll booths which would be set up to query or activate the automatic mode. As the demand grows, the dividers could be moved, new lanes built or other really neat options could be explored.

      Historically, this parallels the development of the limited-access highway so we know it can be done.

    30. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And one was murdered by a drunk driver.

      Forgive me; I know the following statement is somewhat insensitive. But the picture in my head from this sentence literally pictures a drunk driver getting out of his stopped vehicle, running up to someone walking on the sidewalk and stabbing them to death.

      Is it Friday yet?

    31. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by NeMon'ess · · Score: 1

      Depends on what kind of equipment failure at 80mph. Even a tire shredding is pretty manageable if the cars can communicate. A car with a shredded tire is still going to be moving, just slowing down. The front bumper of the car behind it could even be used to push and stabilize the damaged car as they together merge over to the shoulder.

    32. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      I certainly agree that a car accident isn't the most likely way I'm going to die, but depending on the demographic it is more important. According to CDC and TSF data for someone 15-24 30% of the deaths are car accidents. It goes down in both directions from there. That seems to be a fairly high percentage.
      A high percentage doesn't always translate to a large number. According to the 2004 death rate totals, 33,421 people ages 15-25 years old died in 2004. This is a large number but 30% of that is about 10,026 people. So implementing something in the scale necessary to convert every car to an autopilot system, Add all the necessary supporting feature like a control tower in every city, guidance systems that are more accurate then maps or GPS systems, communication systems and the whole works would cost billions of dollars to start and then millions to keep running. So lets pick a relatively low number of 2 billion to get started and lets say 1 million a year for each county. Now I don't know how many counties are in the US, but I do know Ohio has something like 88 so we will use that number for arguments sake. So, 88 mil*50 states is 4,400,000,000. Now take that across the life span of 15-25 or ten years, we will 44 billion 4 hundred-thousand dollars($44,000,000,000) plus the two billion to get started.

      OK, We have a very large expense number but it is relatively small compared to the national budget which is in the trillions of dollars. But when we divide the number of people we are really intending to pprotect (the 30% of the 25-24 age group) we get something like 4,388,589.66 Per person. Granted the loss of property damage and other expenses will ofset this greatly. But think of how many people would live if we took 10,000 scientist, Put a system of communication in place and gave them each 4 million over ten years to find the cures for what is killing us and then use the remaining 388 thousand/person to reduce the number of distractions, defensive driving courses and improve our roads.

      Can you honestly say that the cost associated is being spent effectively or efficiently?
    33. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Despite the cool graphic I have in my head of cars zipping through intersections at pretty much full speed, with inches to spare, the problem I see with this is what about malfunctions? Even if the car AIs have reaction times in the milliseconds we're still talking about dozens to hundreds of feet to impliment a stop. What if the computer controlled car in front of you blows a tire? We're limited by the friction coefficient of the tire-road interface.

      I like the idea, but I still think that a PRT system would be better, at least in many areas. By having a track interface, you can essentially create disc brakes that clamp onto the rail. Your stopping power in this case is pretty much limited to your hydrolics and human limitations. Think somewhere between 'panic stop' and 'crush zone collapsing' in cars. The benefit of being able to make everything line powered while you're at it is a bonus. No more city smog from cars. The AI would be simplified because essentially all the other traffic would also be computer controlled,

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    34. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Oops.. Missed this:

      and you would have standard turn points and no multiple lanes.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    35. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      What would happen to car insurance company profits?

    36. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      I did some lose numbers in another post that attempt to equate a the amount an automated transportation system like what we are talking about to the cost per lost life in the 15-24 age group. This is significant only in the attempt to prioritize auto accidents for prevention in this way. And the significance is only to the best way to spend the resources that it will take to implement it.

      Take note, I am not attempting to trivialize the deaths of anyone in any ways. I am only attempting to show that if we were to spend the type of money necessary to have an autopilot in all the cars, we could spend it differently to a greater effect and much more then save a relatively small number of lives compared to all death causes. Also keep in mind that It deals with numbers in the billions of dollars range but on a national scale were the spending is several trillion dollars, it isn't realy as much as you would thinks.

      Please take a look at it and see if you could understand my position a little better. Don't concentrate on the actual numbers too much though, they are rough and serve no actual factual basis outside having something to place the project into perspective. Although I did attempt to keep them somewhat in line with the cost of running the control towers of a small Airport that is still large enough to land a plane on autopilot or send navigational instructions to one, I think they are conservative in that there isn't near as much traffic at these airports compared to the amount of vehicles that will need to be controlled. So they could still be too low as well as the costs of the damages associated with vehicle collisions wasn't attempted to be accounted for. I figure those were an offset directly related to the cost of implementing the system so I kept these numbers artificially low to generically account for them.

    37. Re:Safety vs. Freedom , again. by paulsnx2 · · Score: 1

      Computer control of cars will occur. It will get to the point that what we do when we "drive" is instruct the computer where we wish to go.

      Central control? Only to the same extent that your desktop is "centrally controlled". Cars will be able to navigate completely on their own. This is mandated by the fact that navigation decisions to adjust course, avoid accidents, etc. are too time critical to be done remotely. Gross routing can be done over a network, but this simply points out how many additional data points an automated system can factor into decisions when compared to people.

      The automated car can use infrared sensors that detect deer, moose, dogs, etc. Maybe even video to detect and avoid hitting endangered species. People can't do that.

      Even the most skilled driver can be killed by a drunk. An automated vehicle protects everyone else from the drunk, i.e. it can effectively enforce rules like "no driving head on into the oncoming station wagon". If the drunk is in a non-automated vehicle, the automated car may be more effective at recognizing the risk and avoiding them. Automated vehicles never get tired, bored, or distracted, and can monitor any number of inputs to help make such decisions.

      I suspect at some point we will see a series of tests in simulation proving that an automated vehicle can avoid accidents and fatalities that no human can avoid. And I'd like to be able to claim that the reason I long for the day of automated cars is that the 40,000 people killed per year on American highways have to be addressed.

      However, if the truth be known, what I really want is to take a nap now and then on long car trips.

  22. The underlying research by jtogel · · Score: 5, Informative

    If anyone actually is interested in reading the papers discussing the experiments we did (many more than you see in the videos!), most of them are available on my website.

    Some of them are of course better than others. I can recommend this one, about evolving general and specific driving skills, this one about co-evolution, this one about different learning techniques, and this one about modelling human driving and evolving tracks. There are several new ones, including one on physical cars, which are not on the website yet - mail me if you want a preprint!

    All this assuming that anyone actually reads academic papers... sometimes it seems that not even the guy who writes the paper actually reads it. (Not true in my case, of course!)

    1. Re:The underlying research by bmajik · · Score: 1

      I read the modeling human driving paper as race-driver instruction with real tracks and real human drivers is an interest of mine. I was expecting to see a discussion of the information processing problem, the acting-on-incomplete data, and so on, that must happen with a real human in a real car on a real course.

      The paper seems very game focused and the extrapolation to real driving seems a bit distant, but I concede not reading the other papers.

      One comment I have about your track modelling: all your track evolution approaches appear to be deviants of a 2d plan-layout problem of where to place points. Yet the plan view of a track is not what makes it interesting, but the "riding along it" view is how the driver experiences the track. One thing I noticed is that some of your tracks had violent left-right displacements of successive control points, that in 2d look like very sharp turns but of course to a proper driver would actually be straights because the vehicle can be piloted in the gap between consecutive wall-intrusions on the roadway. The track looks visually "busy" but is actually uninteresting.

      Real tracks are constructed of a few basic features - straights, constant radius curves, varying radius curves, and then compositions of these features, like chicanes, hairpins, and so on. The tracks you've evolved with your current models don't appear to evolve these features, but instead make tracks that look very disslimilar to anything one might find in the real world.

      I wonder if a segment/feature based approach, using some of the techniques you've already laid out (i.e. using connected bsplines to ensure continuity) might give tracks that have more value/segment, or have more correlation to real-world tracks?

      One other thing that came to mind - what if the bsplines are along the racing line, and the walls of the track are a variable distance away from the line on either side? IOW, relax your assumption that the path is always in the center of the track. In reality, the driven line of the track is what matters more than the shape of the track, as a proper drive will only ever have the car positioned on or near the line (you don't appear to discuss off-line or multi-car driving at all).

      Also, in the PDF i read there seemed to be some content errors - sentences that just were abruptly terminated. These weren't at column/page breaks.. but just in the middle of a column or so. Consider the last page of the 2007Towards pdf - the last content sentence on my PDF renderer appears to abruptly stop prior to the references section beginning.

      I can't tell from your papers or website - do you have track day or other real-world race experience?

      --
      My opinions are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
    2. Re:The underlying research by jtogel · · Score: 1

      Wow, that is a lot of interesting comments, from someone in the know as well... I am very happy to get people other than computer scientists commenting on my research!

      First of all, I know nothing about real car racing. I don't even have a driver's license, that's how bad it is. (To my defence, not every Swede has one...)

      This particular paper is very game focused, true. As such, it does not deal with noisy sensors and all that, but we do have another paper on how to model real (miniature R/C) car dynamics, evolve controllers in the model and transfer them back to the real car, bringing it all closer to the real world. It is currently being revised and will be up on the website within a week or so.

      Now to your actual comments. We chose no to rely on standard segments and instead on b-splines (or, in the earlier workshop paper, a form of parametrised segments) to allow evolution more room for its creativity. We explicitly wanted evolution to come up with things we had never seen before. But if it come up with features which would not have the intended effect on real drivers - such as differences in the width of the track that a human driver would just not care about - this is a problem. In that case it is a problem with our fitness function, thus probably with the underlying player model. We are aware of the need for more accurate player models based on more complex sensory inputs. And of doing all this with multi-car racing.

      One alternative would be to use an existing racing game such as Trackmania which comes with a track editor based on segments but which still allows for a lot of creativity in constructing tracks.

  23. Not just for older drivers - wives also! by mrbluze · · Score: 5, Funny

    Sitting in a car with my missus driving is much the same as being in a driverless car:

    1. Still get claw marks on all the passenger-side interior handles and the dashboard
    2. Still likely to hit every bird, squash every small furry animal on the road and drive over every cardboard box and bit of metal.
    3. Still get no response or admission of guilt when the car crashes

    Biggest difference is that the thing is more likely to know the way to someplace.

    --
    Do it yourself, because no one else will do it yourself. [beta blockade 10-17 Feb]
  24. Never gonna happen... by gkhan1 · · Score: 1, Funny

    If we start using driverless cars, the Blue Screen of Death will suddenly have a whole new meaning!

  25. mod up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    if this comment isn't informative, i don't know what is

  26. The problem isn't in the technology by RandomWordGenerator · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The problem with driverless cars isn't the technology but insurance.
    Many manufacturers have been dissuaded from pursuing the technology and installing in their vehicles because in the case of any accident the corporation would be liable. Obviously the 'driver' wouldn't be at fault because they wouldn't be driving.
    No large corporation is going to put itself in line to pay out on every bump, scrape and minor slaying caused when their killer robo-cars Attack!

    1. Re:The problem isn't in the technology by Watson+Ladd · · Score: 1

      On the contrary, the problem is the technology. We simply cannot make complex, correct, software without huge expense. Even something as simple as automatic speed control can get screwed up. Example: The BMW's which spontaneously accelerated due to a software bug.

      --
      Inventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for further development.-- Frontinus, 1st cent. AD
    2. Re:The problem isn't in the technology by Foerstner · · Score: 2, Insightful

      By that logic, automakers wouldn't ever introduce new technology.

      Power steering? What if the pump fails during a hard turn?
      Air bags? What if some idiot doesn't buckle up and gets killed by the bag?
      Seat belts? What if the latch weakens with age and breaks during the impact?
      Windshield wipers? What if they crap out in the middle of a heavy rainstorm?!

      Sooner or later the technology becomes mature enough that the benefits outweigh the risk of liability. At that point, the manufacturer slaps another disclaimer into the owners' manual and adds the cost of doing business to the sticker.

      --
      The US free market: two halves of a government-granted duopoly are free to set the market price.
    3. Re:The problem isn't in the technology by NerveGas · · Score: 1

      If those go out, they are attributed to wear and tear in a harsh environment, but it's a lot harder to say that a software algorithm just got worn out...

      --
      Oh, you're not stuck, you're just unable to let go of the onion rings.
  27. Oh great! by codemachine · · Score: 4, Funny

    It is bad enough seeing a steady stream of cars and SUVs with only one person in them streaming out of the downtown at rush hour. Now we're going to have cars out there that aren't even taking anyone anywhere.

    The environmentalists will not be happy with this development!

    1. Re:Oh great! by Rolgar · · Score: 1

      How long till we see 8 year olds with their own car. And every parent with close to enough money to not think about it will buy one for their kid so they don't have to ride the bus, and the parents don't have to drive their kids to school. Expensive private grade schools will have a student parking lot. The parents will strap their kid in the car, and their will be buckle attendant at the lot to help the kids out of the car and set it to park themselves, and then load the kids in the car when they're ready to return home. You'll think the car is empty, but it will be full with a half dozen 10 year old girls headed to the mall 20 miles away.

    2. Re:Oh great! by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      You only need one or two self-driving cars for a family, depending on what time work starts. Carpool with the kid, and let the car drive him to school before returning home (or vice versa), wait for the scheduled return times, and go through the whole thing again.. automatically

      The beauty of it is that if everyone has their only personal chauffeur (i.e. self-driving car) we can completely eliminate storefront parking: the car will drop you off at the entrance and either go home or to a designated parking area (or drive itself to a garage for scheduled maintenance) to wait for a specified time or for you to call it.

      Computers were invented to free us from repetitive tasks. At a certain order of complexity, commuting is a repetitive task, hence it will eventually be eliminated. People might still drive for fun, but they won't have to if they don't want to.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  28. And try this against a real racer by tarball · · Score: 2, Insightful

    on a real track, and these algorithms wouldn't stand a chance. Racers know subtle moves and blatent moves that these systems will never be able to learn. Add the fact that real cheating and bending the rules has to occur under the nose of race officials, and that team cars run by algorithms would be banned from any racing venue for being dangerous morons within one or two races, and this would disappear faster than most vaporware.

    Implying that these cars could "drive themselves" in any meaningful or safe manner is idiotic. I would like to see what would happen if they put in place some rules based on sane driving.

    tom
    autocrosser and road racer

    --
    I hate sigs, and refuse to have one.
    1. Re:And try this against a real racer by jtogel · · Score: 1

      Hmm... why? Why would a machine learning systems never be able to learn such moves? And why wouldn't they be able to stick to the rules? Just curious.

    2. Re:And try this against a real racer by tarball · · Score: 1

      Because it takes realtime intelligence to survive on the track. It's not just knocking people out and getting ahead, it's winning while being watched by officials and your fellow racers, which these algorithms will never be able to do. You need to pick your trick and pick the spot to do it at the same time. The trick and the time change dynamically based on your track position and the cars surrounding you. And if you don't get caught by the officials, your fellow racers will take you out for sure if you are a danger to them.

      tom

      --
      I hate sigs, and refuse to have one.
    3. Re:And try this against a real racer by Timbotronic · · Score: 1

      Actually I think it would fascinating to pit humans against machines for racing. I suspect on a known track that you could make a machine very competitive indeed. Particularly on those stupifyingly boring oval tracks that Americans seems so fond of. Much higher tolerances to G Forces, no fatigue, and the ability to analyse every part of the previous lap would have to help.

      --

      One of these days I'm moving to Theory - everything works there

    4. Re:And try this against a real racer by tarball · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yeah, except the boring oval tracks, which I probably dislike more than you, would be the easiest place to kick the butt of a program controlled car. Because the program doesn't feel the dynamics of the air or the track like a human does.

      A boringly smooth road track with an entirely predictable car, like most F1 tracks and cars are becoming, would be the ideal combination for these algorithms. No one passes anyway, so maintaining position until a perfect pit stop occurs is the way to get ahead. Good pit in and out laps win races nowadays. This is where perfection in an algorithm could possibly win, whereas NASCAR is too noisy an environment for it to work.

      That being said, I don't watch NASCAR (much), and I am an F1 junkie.

      Hamilton is very likely the F1 version of Tiger Woods.

      tom

      --
      I hate sigs, and refuse to have one.
    5. Re:And try this against a real racer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You haven't answered his question - you're just saying "it can't" over and over, without giving a reason why. Why not? Why can a computer not learn the things you describe?

    6. Re:And try this against a real racer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful
      Because the program doesn't feel the dynamics of the air or the track like a human does.

      Um, why not? Presumably a robot car would also have robot senses to detect the influence of the air on the forces on the car, as well as variations in the road. What exactly makes you so sure that they won't? Please give me a real reason (eg. perhaps there is a physical law that says robot race car drivers are incompatible with known laws of physics? or maybe an affront to God, punished appropriately from on high?), not just an appeal to your authority as a race car driver.

    7. Re:And try this against a real racer by neomunk · · Score: 1

      The way the machine in question learns is not by programming in every possible circumstance and letting it look at a list of things it knows how to do. This particular machine learns the same way YOU learned to drive, experience. When it does well it repeats what it did, when it does badly it tries something else.

      The system being used isn't complex enough to handle those things yet, I mean this simulation has far fewer neurons than anything alive with a nervous system but it still does a damn fine job of getting from A to B in most cases.

      If you're really interested in this, google for the NetLogo package. (not the 3d one, just regular NetLogo) It comes with a whole bunch of neat models that can give you the basics of complex behavior evolved from interactive simple structures, like neurons.

    8. Re:And try this against a real racer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are an idiot. Read up on how neural networks function before spouting your ignorant "it can't be done" spiel here.

    9. Re:And try this against a real racer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sure chess players had exactly the same feelings as you 20 years ago.

    10. Re:And try this against a real racer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because he finds the prospect of a machine doing better than him (at racing) somewhat personally distasteful. Arguments like these do not need rational support evidence.

    11. Re:And try this against a real racer by tarball · · Score: 1

      So your argument is that because it will happen because you think it will?

      That's as cogent as the response of the other Anonymous Coward, who may have been you as far as I know, that I have to prove that the machine couldn't possibly win.

      --
      I hate sigs, and refuse to have one.
    12. Re:And try this against a real racer by tarball · · Score: 1

      Actually my point was mostly that they wouldn't know when they could get away with NOT sticking to the rules.

      --
      I hate sigs, and refuse to have one.
    13. Re:And try this against a real racer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, I think that it is rather foolish to think that the technical advancement will just stop here. Your opinion is just as valid as mine, except that my opinion is supported by the thousands of years of technical advancements, which are most likely to continue to happen in the future.

      You just don't want to admit that a machine will be better than you. Admitting it won't make you less good person.

      I'm the same AC as the grandparent, I haven't posted other replies to this thread.

    14. Re:And try this against a real racer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm the other ac. And (sigh) no, I don't want you to prove that the machine couldn't win. I only want to give me a better reason than "I don't think it can". You haven't given a reason - only vague voodoo about some inate advantage that humans have at solving certain, mechanically solvable problems.

      Regarding your distortion of the other AC's post - there's a big difference between "it will happen because I think it will" and "I have no reason to believe that it won't".

      Look, it's ok to say "I cannot forsee a time when a computer could safely and effectively drive a car". Obviously it's an enormously hard problem. But "a computer will never safely and effectively drive a car" is a much stronger statement, and needs some support. You haven't provided any.

      I reckon your position on this is because you feel threatened. At first glance, I might feel sympathetic, until you realize THAT MAKES NO SENSE. People don't race cars because only people can do it - they do it because it's FUN. How is it that you race cars and you don't know this? Does the existence of chess computers that can beat any human mean that I don't play chess for fun anymore? No, of course not. Don't worry - your job/hobby is secure, and will be even if at some point in the future the highways are filled with robot cars.

    15. Re:And try this against a real racer by jtogel · · Score: 1

      Now that's an interesting point. Hmm... it would require internally modelling the field of attention, and judgement, of the judge. Or just copying what the other cars do. But I agree, it makes the problem harder - and more interesting!

    16. Re:And try this against a real racer by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Typical. SOmeone in a field goes on and on about how My thing that I enjoy could never understand blah.blah.blah.

      Bad news, you don't do anything when driving a car that is magic.

      RObot racing cars would be boring because eventually they would become very near perfect. Faster response, larger base of knowledge, and they could be programmed for any eventallity that will hapen within the confines of a race track. Which, by the way, is far more predicatable then driving on the street.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  29. options by niloroth · · Score: 1

    there are some things that i really would not want to have to write into the code for a driver less car, but that would need to be addressed. What happens if you are driving along a road and someone jumps out in front of you while you are passing a car going the opposite direction? Does the car swerve to the right to attempt to miss the person, and risk running itself into an object that could kill it's driver? Does it swerve to the left and hit the other car? Does it drive into the person? What about an accident that happens on a free way at rush hour at high speeds like a blown tire, or broken drive train? The chances are small, but things like that will have to be written in. I would love to be able to get in my car, tell it a destination and go, especially if i could go out to a bar, put back a few too many, and not have to worry about how i am getting home. I just don't see it any time soon, sadly.

    --
    09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
    1. Re:options by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If I had to decide between killing myself, an innocent next to me (and possibly myself too), and the absolute moron in front of me, I'd choose the moron. If I could brake and swerve safely I would. But I wouldn't roll or hit a tree to save the moron.

    2. Re:options by hazem · · Score: 1

      It could be that every such scenario does not have to be programmed... but rather, a complex decision like that is programmed through some kind of decision logic that uses other smaller logic modules to handle the sub-parts of the decision.

      But if you give these cars the ability to communicate with each other and "smart roads", you might be able to end up with behaviors that are just not possible with current cars.

      Given your scenario, it maybe possible the car can slam to a complete stop - while communicating with all the cars behind it that it's doing that - thus, all cars in the lane stop almost immediately and don't pile up.

      Or maybe it can communicate with the oncoming car so that it slows enough that it can zip across the lane in front of the oncoming car and into the shoulder on the other side. Or maybe it can get the oncoming cars to hug the right side of the road, making room down the middle to avoid the accident.

      Or maybe the road itself has sensors that can detect pedestrians that the car couldn't see directly, helping to stop the situation before it even gets started.

      There are all kinds of interesting possibilities when you combine the ideas of smart roads and smart cars that work together - and they're likely to be far superior in terms of both safety and ability to get around than the capabilities of human drivers.

    3. Re:options by neomunk · · Score: 1

      The answer is that you don't program pre-written behaviors, you train them.

      You simulate that condition (and everything else you can think of) over and over and over again, letting it learn from it's mistakes. You make it a little different each time so that it can't be learning just that one circumstance. You repeat and repeat (at computer simulation speeds) until the car does at least as good as a person does, or make sure it does at least twice as good as Avg Joe.

      This isn't an expert system we're talking about, it's learned behavior, capable of intelligent decision making even when confronted with an event it's never experienced, as long as it's been trained well in SIMILAR circumstances. It'll make 'judgement calls' on the parts that call for judgement, all based on it's past experience. Just like you.

      Mind you, that level of complexity is a far way off from the model in the article, but we're talking about the foundations of that.

  30. difficult to back up by David_Shultz · · Score: 1

    The article mentioned the cars getting stuck in the corner. This is a problem with the NN architecture used. Backing up requires a very different sort of behavior than normal driving, so you require a way for your architecture to keep track of a particular state, and change behavior as you progress through that state (you need to back up for a set amount of time, then go forward and change direction). This problem is made clearer when imagining the absurdity of trying to get a simple NN like this one to learn how to parallel park. The solution is to add a node or two which maintain their values over time (i.e. they are not directly fed into by sensors) in order to set the car into different states. So, after evolving, one of the nodes will come to represent "back up" state. When the car gets stuck in a corner, the backup node will become activated, and will stay activated for long enough for the car to actually back up! I shouldn't have to mention that this is probably a difficult thing for the car to learn on its own, but without these extra memory nodes it is impossible.

  31. Surpassed by TORCS by novocastrian · · Score: 2, Informative

    TORCS is a more advanced racing simulation than Rars. Its held robot-programming contests for the last 3 years, with another about to start soon.

    There have been several robots that use various learning techniques, though none to my knowledge have been full-blown AI/neural net solutions. To be honest, I query the advantages of doing it that way. A robot that has code to plan a smooth & optimal path around the track & calculates braking and steering accordingly will do much better (initially at least) than an AI robot that needs to learn this information. Perhaps bots that use a mix of the two (preplanning to begin with then learning to fine-tune any errors in the plan) would be the best solution.

  32. In the future, it'll be a movie. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In the year 74AD (the yearly calendar was adjusted in 2010, but took a few years to change globally, oh and AD now stands for Another Date), a man stumbles across a car from the past, but is baffled when it doesnt move by itself, and there a strange circle on one side of the car,.............anyways, havoc is created on the loads (formally roads, but people no longer know how to pronounce 'R's, and replaced them with 'L's) when this guy drives round at stupidly slow speeds, and the AI cars smash into walls and buildings, hahahhaha.

    the car is a ferrari, taveling @ 160mph. normal cars now travel @ 160mpns (miles per nano second)

  33. Re:Will they cooperate or compete by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wonder what will the do. Realise that you can flow the whole track allot faster
    by cooperating with other cars or compete for every little gain (given that the objective
    of the AI is to get around faster and not faster then others) and bog everything
    down like most people on the roads today ?

  34. Re:sad by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's sad that you are actually contemplating this so you can get drunk and have a computer
    drive you home. Maybe you would also like a computer do most of the thinking for
    you, especialy since you have so little time between all the things your daily life requeres
    you to do. Maybe you just want too much and nothing will ever be enough.
    And maybe this is the wrong place for a rant like this. But hey don't take it too hard ,
    let the computers and tv do the thinking for you, and give you a nice answer that will
    not disturb your conscience too much.

  35. Sweet...! by adamchou · · Score: 1

    Does this mean I can finally leave my blowup doll at home and ride in the carpool lane?

  36. Yes, by FMota91 · · Score: 1

    but is it Linux-compatible?

    --
    09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C1 bottles of beer on the wall. Take one down, pass it round... Oh, umm...
  37. Better Yet by Dean+Hougen · · Score: 2, Informative

    I'm all in favor of robot contests and all but more important, from my point of view, is the ability to share resources (such as test environments, robot chassis, sensors, vision-processing code, etc.) outside of the competition itself.

    The biggest unnecessary impediment to robotic research right now, as I see it, is the difficulty researchers have in making comparisons between systems. You demonstrate your racing code on your robot in your test environment. I demo my code on my bot on my test track. The results are different but what does that show? On the other hand, if we both have the opportunity to try out our code on the same robot in the same test environment and mine clobbers yours, then the whole world can clearly see that mine works better. (Or, I suppose it is logically possible that yours would outperform mine, but that seems pretty unlikely, now doesn't it?)

    We can get some kind of head-to-head comparisons in competitions, to be sure, but even then it is often just the environment that is the same. Typically the contestants are still providing all of their own hardware and software (as in the DARPA Grand Challenge and TFA). Even if we provide contestants the same hardware (xor the same software), limiting our comparison time to a couple of days a year impedes progress. We should be able to test our systems year 'round.

    What we should be doing is making our code and our hardware and our test environments available to one another on a daily basis. If I want to see if I can evolve a better neurocontroller for your race car than you did, you should allow me to download my code onto your race car to drive around your track next month. Want to see if your code does a good job of driving my FIDO-class planetary rover over a simulated Martian surface? Download it onto my bot and run it in our Mars room or our outdoor OK/Mars test site. If you want to see if your rover hardware design can outperform the classic rocker-bogey design, pack it in a crate and ship it to us and we'll run it around our test environments for you.

    Of course, it isn't quite as easy as that since the labs with the coolest robots in the world (which cost a pretty penny) can't spend all of their time and resources running experiments for other people at no cost - they have to get something out of the deal too. But that issue is not insurmountable.

    I do applaud the provision of the simulation version of the race, which gets us running the same (simulated) hardware in the same (simulated) environment. (Interested readers should see http://julian.togelius.com/cig2007competition/ for the Java code. It is very simple and fun to try out.) The one question I have there, what is the license like for the simulator? I didn't see a README file or a note on the webpage. I didn't dig into individual source files or anything. Open source of some stripe would be nice, so that we can all improve it and share the improvements with one another.

    Also, if anyone can suggest a more realistic racing simulation environment that could provide a better bridge to the real world competition that the simple 2D sim mentioned above, I'd appreciate it. An open interface is, of course, a must.

    Dean

    1. Re:Better Yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      The Player/Stage project works along these lines and is fairly widely used.

      http://playerstage.sourceforge.net/

    2. Re:Better Yet by jtogel · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the nice comments! It's all very free and open source, though I haven't gotten around to spelling it out explicitly or attaching any particular license to it. I too would really like to have a more sophisticated simulator to work with, but I have two really important requirements which all the alternatives I looked at so far have run afoul of:

      * The simulator should be 100% cross platform (I regulary use Ubuntu, Mac and Windows, and researchers who want to participate in the competition can well be expected to run more exotic systems). This pretty much rules out anything written in c, as the graphical frontend would be platform specific.

      * It should be easy to get started with. Really, really easy. Even if I might be willing to spend a week learning the systems, researchers who want to participate in the competition will certainly. We're talking about something like five minutes here, provided you're proficient in programming in general (but not necessarily the specific language chosen).

      Someone higher up mentioned TORCS (or was it RARS? I keep forgetting which is which...) and while it seems nice enough a simulation, with quite a user base, it is clearly not platform agnostic and easy to get started with enough.

      Has anyone got a good suggestion? Otherwise, there is some serious development work to be done here, at some point...

    3. Re:Better Yet by Dean+Hougen · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the input. I've had quite a number of my students use Player/Stage (and Gazebo), both for research and for coursework. It certainly has some good points to it and I thank the good people at USC and elsewhere for making it available and open. At the same time, I'm always looking for better tools.

      Dean

    4. Re:Better Yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There was a program sponsored by DARPA to handle this issue called Learning Applied to Ground Robots (LAGR). They had Carnegie Melon develop at least 20 vehicles that were identical and then given to different universities and companies working on the project. The goal was for everyone to develop and share there computer vision and A.I. software without any excuses because the hardware and OS (Linux), were identical. The real problem with autonomous vehicles is not the path planning and navigation, it's path planning in navigation in unknown and noisy environments. The current state of sensors for robots are nowhere near good enough. For robots it's the equivalent of a human driving after 20 beers.

    5. Re:Better Yet by Dean+Hougen · · Score: 1

      Thanks. I thought of mentioning LAGR but my post was already long enough.

      LAGR certainly had some good points to it, such as ensuring each team had standard hardware and could use the same test environment. However, it was a very closed and focused program, which meant that its overall effect on robotic research was very limited. (Full disclosure: I applied to the LAGR program but was not selected to participate.)

      Dean

      P.S. I like your beer analogy in a post about a program called LAGR.

    6. Re:Better Yet by TempeNerd · · Score: 1

      Have you looked into using real neural tissue???

      Over the years, a number of researchers have done things with "brain on a chip" kind of circuits.

      I'm sorry I don't have a more recent link - but here is one from 2004
      http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id =28418

  38. testing & riding; was: re: In Case of Rapture by 70Bang · · Score: 1


    If the issue is the Rapture, I think most of the people left behind will have tougher aspects of their lives than whether their cars will function safely.

    As far as testing goes, when we were working on the jeep two years ago, we had a nice, big, back yard to play, courtesy of as he has considerable acreage (20? 30? 40?). It cuts down additional neighbors and there's a lot of nature preserve. You can't hear the traffic a few blocks east of it from the major thoroughfare coming it's like a nature preserve in most of it.

    When we were testing, it was someone in the front seat to stop it if something went wrong; also you had a walkie talkie to talk to the pit crew. Everyone had a two-hour shift. Big tips: Go before you start. Only drink water with you if you must. There's nothing like driving 100 yards away from the bathroom and you can't stop. You basically sat behind the wheel and if something looked abnormal, you could wire it back for feedback (or stop it if it seemed terrible).

    The feature I've always thought would be nice for the open traffic vehicles is to be able to chain them together such that if ten cars are passing along a common stretch of distance, they could be spaced out, but a safe distance apart. It would be like a e-(train and caboose). The head of the chain would know when to stop for lines, to stop before railroad crossings, etc. That should reduce accidents, permit a decent speed beyond today, and perhaps give them a certain lane for e-trains and people would have to move over. Think of a rush-hour lane in some larger cities.

    There would be the inherent problems of taking advantage (criminally). Broadcast a signal telling it to go ahead measurement ahead, then turn right, then stop. Ducks in a barrel. Pop a barricade up and watch the vehicle stop. Another sitting duck.

    Most vehicles with fatalities to so because someone forgot there's a real-world Physics Police . They don't issue warnings.

    As far as safety issues: at 4:12am this morning, someone hopped onto I-465 and started driving against traffic for nine miles. That is, until someone didn't react fast enough and they had a contest of car vs. (oncoming) SUV. All three died. The driver (at fault) couldn't switch directions (if they even realized it) when they realized there was a problem because the medians are made from nasty pieces of concrete. But they did have several exits to get off. They also could have pulled off to the shoulder or median and sought help. A lot of people managed to avoid the car and there was an onslaught of 911 calls.

    Most of the good pictures aren't online, poorly uploaded, etc. The local affiliates showed cars which looked like the T-1000 when it was blasted to some pretty funky thin, rough edges. If they were still alive, there would have been nothing to pry apart because the pieces were just big enough to hold together but too thin to use the Jaws of Life against. I have seen a couple of these ((back in the day). A few with just one car: 90+mph and running into a street light. It hurt the light pole but goodly sized trees have a few, big scratches into the bark. Give yourself the task of scraping as much bark as you can in fifteen seconds. That will be considerately more damage than most accidents rip off.

    Something which most people don't think about is: if the front end crumples too much, the engine has to go somewhere. It certainly doesn't jump out from under the hood and clear itself from the car. It's not going to deflate into a small piece of rubber. Imagine parking an engine in your passenger area at a pretty good speed and (people) trying to survive. Did you watch Twister and see the tower fly into the truck's front window? That's minor.

    _____________________

    As far as taking the keys away, my grandmother wi

  39. One big traffic jam by Propaganda13 · · Score: 1

    I thought this would be time based trials, but read this "while outwitting the opponent cars but to do so it needs to be smart, it needs adapt to the behaviour of the other cars as it drives." Great, I get to spend my time developing a driving robot just to have another robot freak out and slam my car into the wall. Haven't they heard of baby steps? Hopefully, they'll use time trials and a run with a remote controlled car to weed out the obviously not ready ones. Seriously, if they just race then a quick start and swerving towards any other car will probably get you ahead since I think a lot of teams would program in collision avoidance.

  40. Kindergarden Lesson by vbwyrde · · Score: 1

    There is an old kindergarten lesson that goes like this "Don't build anything taller than your head - it could come crashing down on you." That's what this reminds me of. You can build it. But is it wise to do so?

    1. Re:Kindergarden Lesson by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's also an old kindergarten lesson that goes like "what the fuck are you talking about?" That's what your shit-ass post reminds me of. You can post. But is it wise to do so?

  41. Do it properly...implement random deletion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I think the important part would be to properly implement the congestion avoidance algorithms. So when the queues at an intersection get too long, we randomly select vehicles from the queue for instant destruction in a car crusher at the side of the road. Note that the contents of the packets, sorry cars, get deleted too. After a few weeks of this congestion will no longer be a problem.....

    hmm, the captcha is cleanse...:)

  42. In Soviet Union by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 0

    ... how does the rest of it go?

    /dials Branson Information

  43. Only works on wide roads by Animats · · Score: 3, Informative

    Notice that in all the examples, the road is much wider than the car. That's not by accident.

    Driving using reactive behaviors is easy if you have plenty of room. On narrow roads, though, those approaches fail. You have to look ahead. In fact, to drive in the real world, you need a controller that plots at least an S-curve ahead. Otherwise, you'll end up in a tight spot pointed in a direction that won't get you through.

    You don't necessarily have to "plan", in the AI sense, but you need a fairly good dynamics prediction capability, after which you can run a reactive controller on the prediction.

    We went through this with our DARPA Grand Challenge vehicle. We started out with a reactive planner, but it just couldn't deal with tight spots. Most of the other teams ended up with S-curve planners, too. The reason you need S-curves is that you need to be able to achieve both a desired position and direction at a point ahead of the vehicle. So you need a curve with at least two degrees of freedom.

    The predictor needs to know enough about the vehicle dynamics to make reasonable predictions. For example, predicted S-curves have to be built knowing how fast you can change the steering angle and how tightly you can turn given the current speed and ground bank.

    If you need to do this stuff, read up on adaptive model-based feedforward control. The idea is that you have a system that learns how the system behaves as the inputs change and builds a model. Inverting the model gives you a predictor. Given a predictor, you can control.

    A useful feature of that approach is that, while you're using one predictor, you can be training a better one safely. Predictors are trained by watching; they don't have to be in control. So you can start out with some dumb controller and work your way up to better ones, without crashing. This is probably how mammals learn motor skills.

    1. Re:Only works on wide roads by jtogel · · Score: 3, Informative

      This is an interesting argument, and yes, we are experimenting with predictive control and internal models as well (experiments running as we speak). But I think that the real power of predictive models only show when you have multiple agents involved. People often underestimate the power of reactive control just because they assume that humans can't tune them well enough. But evolution is not limited in that way, and can sometimes do things with reactive controllers you just wouldn't think possible. (Stefano Nolfi has done some thinking and experimenting on this, see for example his paper "Power and limits of reactive agents".)

      In the case of our (admittedly simple) model, we have a limited line of sight, and I think a good reactive controller can perform optimally (however you define that, often optimality is just another buzzword) given the limited sensor data. We did try evolving reactive control on much narrower tracks with good results - see for example our papers on track evolution. What the controller learns is often just to slow down when coming up to a narrow passage.

    2. Re:Only works on wide roads by Animats · · Score: 1

      I read the paper and made a copy of the most difficult map, track #8. I'll try to convert that into a form the Overbot software can handle, and run it.

      That map, assuming the vehicle is 2m wide and 3m long, has a narrowest width of 4 meters, which is not all that tight. The simulated vehicles in the article seem to have a rather tight minimum turning radius. They do skid in turns; unclear if the controller is exploiting that behavior to tighten turns. What is the minimum turning radius of those vehicles?

      Reactive control is easy if the turning radius of the vehicle is small. The paper on "Power and limits of reactive agents" uses a round vehicle with a zero turning radius, one that can turn in place. With a vehicle like that, you don't have to predict. The Roomba works the same way; zero turning radius and purely reactive control.

      I'll have to pass this along to the robotics group at UC Santa Cruz who now has the Overbot; they may follow up.

    3. Re:Only works on wide roads by jtogel · · Score: 1

      That's interesting. I have to get back to you about the minimum turning radius once I get to my "work" computer (just woke up). I'd like to know about the results!

    4. Re:Only works on wide roads by jtogel · · Score: 1

      According to my code, the minimum turning radius is 25 pixels. (The length of the car is 20 pixels and width 10 pixels.) But that's very minimum, at the speeds it actually travels the actual turning radius is quite a bit larger. I've never cared to calculate how much, as the simulation is not supposed to quantitatively model anything. However, we have been working recently on automatically modelling a small radio-controlled car, and evolving controllers based on that model that then perform well in the real world. I'll put that paper up on the website within the next few days.

    5. Re:Only works on wide roads by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      You have to look ahead.

      Any competent driving or racing course will teach you to "look well ahead" and think in seconds rather than MPH. One thing I often notice is drivers waiting at a traffic light (already within the intersection) that have their front wheels already turned in the direction they want to go.

      If the car gets rear-ended, it gets T-boned (left turns) into oncoming traffic or hits innocent pedestrians (right turns).

      Of course, defensive drivers care about what is happening behind as well as in front.

  44. Maybe they got modded down... by Khaed · · Score: 0

    But I didn't see them, so I'll join the bandwagon:

    In Soviet Russia, car drives you.

  45. Drifting! by Megane · · Score: 1

    Those cars are definitely drifting! In that first video, all four "wheels" are clearly going sideways at the same time.

    --
    #naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
  46. Re:testing & riding; was: re: In Case of Raptu by Dun+Malg · · Score: 1

    Something which most people don't think about is: if the front end crumples too much, the engine has to go somewhere. It certainly doesn't jump out from under the hood and clear itself from the car. It's not going to deflate into a small piece of rubber. Nor does it necessarily have to move straight back into the passenger compartment. BMW has made it a selling point to illustrate how their cars are designed such that the forward drive train (engine + transmission) breaks free of the body and is deflected down, so that the passenger compartment rides up over the top of it. Many other high end luxury cars are similarly designed.
    --
    If a job's not worth doing, it's not worth doing right.
  47. Re:testing & riding; was: re: In Case of Raptu by damiam · · Score: 1
    Something which most people don't think about is: if the front end crumples too much, the engine has to go somewhere. It certainly doesn't jump out from under the hood and clear itself from the car. It's not going to deflate into a small piece of rubber. Imagine parking an engine in your passenger area at a pretty good speed and (people) trying to survive. Did you watch Twister and see the tower fly into the truck's front window? That's minor.

    Safety. Yet another compelling reason to drive a mid-engined car.

    --
    It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.
  48. Just a little future sight here by gatesvp · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Some posters have posited the "what if every car were an AI car" scenario. But the transformations all talk about changing our current cars into AI cars.

    But I'd like to propose a different slant. If every car is an AI car, then how will this differ significantly from a distributed form of public transportation? If you break it down, the daily commute is filled with SUVs and a lone driver, with the SUV remaining parked (taking up space) for the whole day. So what about "transportion as a service" here (AKA: public transit and taxis)?

    I mean, if I need to get to work and the wife needs to go shopping with the new-born, in many cases we need two cars. But if my car can drive itself home, then the wife can just wait the extra time and have her car back. Point is, we can optimize roadway usage, but we can also optimize car usage time. Communities could own car pools and "rent" them out. With communities co-ordinating their own commutes, but also with cars that can do intelligent pick-ups, you can get by with less cars and with less "big cars".

  49. Got it all wrong by Leuf · · Score: 1

    Think how much better the mileage will be without that 175 lbs of dead weight.

    1. Re:Got it all wrong by codemachine · · Score: 1

      Heh, I knew there had to be a silver lining somewhere.

  50. A great step forward by jandersen · · Score: 1

    This is great news for road safety - now we just need to eliminate passengers as well as pedestrians and other road users so we can finally avoid people getting hurt in traffic.

  51. Driving in the wrong direction by 955301 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Does anyone else feel like automating our current transportation is insanity compared to building a new transportation system that actually lends itself to automation?

    Why are we trying so hard to make something designed to be operated by a human computerized so it stays on the road when we can make a road with rails on it?

    --
    You are checking your backups, aren't you?
    1. Re:Driving in the wrong direction by cyclomedia · · Score: 1

      The greatest lunacy IMO in developing road-worthy AI cars is in attempting to get them to visually recognise and read road signs and road layouts. If there was a standard AI car transponder system that complemented the visual representation of the world then that would be a start. Roads could then be upgraded to "AI compatible" when all their junctions,lanes and major bends are transponder-described so you could at least turn the AI on on the freeway to begin with.

      In the mean time we'd need to figure out how to prevent hacking (build your own transponder to crash traffic) whilst allowing roadworks (temporary override transponders) but overall it'd be a lot less effort if the car just "knew" that in 50m there was a traffic light (signalled transponder) controlled crossroads with a turn left lane HERE and a cycle jump start zone THERE and a speed limit of X kph rather than have to have a bunch of cameras on the thing just to figure out where the white lines are.

      --
      If you don't risk failure you don't risk success.
    2. Re:Driving in the wrong direction by Trojan35 · · Score: 1

      If the state of Silicon Valley's roads are any indication of our ability to construct transportation systems, we'd all be dead within the month if it's automated.

  52. Not so fast by had3z · · Score: 1

    In the overcrowded cities, the only thing that gets you from A to B is the "humanity" of other drivers, who let you take that left turn or entering the main street by slowing down, evan if they have priority. And many more situations that a robot would not understand, like anticipating a child's intention to cross the street, or some idiot's parking without signaling, and so on

    Indeed, it could give you time to shave or whatever during the morning rush, but i wouldn't count on it

    1. Re:Not so fast by geekoid · · Score: 1

      well the car would do the parking, so it would automatically broadcast it's intent and the other cars would automatically slow down.

      Ther are system right now that would bring a car toma stop if someone ran in fronmt of the car. They would perform better then any human could.

      Then you would also have a break over ride.

      You conme to an intersect, the cr broadcasts it's intent. If drivers didn't try to rush the light, you would have plenty of time to get onto that street. You could also eliminate carsds toping in the middle of crossings because they didn't guage the traffic well..or just didn't care.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  53. No Problem... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You do it by Risk Analysis. It's easy to score impacts and compare the results. I understand the other answers, and they may have validity in some circumstances, but with Computer AI you are able to examine the situation, evaluate the expected outcome, and take whatever action produces the most appropriate of all the outcomes which are possible.

    I would have no difficulty coding this up at all. I started my life coding Command and Control systems, and the Decision Support packages in these do exactly what I say above.

    An added bonus is that all this data is available for the accident investigation. No longer do you need to say 'He jumped in front of me and I couldn't stop!'. You will be able to read off a printout looking like this:

    Accident Report - 1109-22G/428-59B 12:08 1003473.209876GPS

    1109-22G log readout .....

    12:08:15.028 - Object moving from left on a collision course detected
    12:08:15.028 - Full braking applied
    12:08:15.029 - Override Broadcast to all objects within 40 yds of current position - details of proposed emergency manoeveure
    12:08:15.030 - Security Handshake with oncoming vehicles established
    12:08:15.031 - Object identified as running human - height 1.130m, mass 28.4 kg
    12:08:15.032 - Oncoming vehicle 428-59B agrees minimum damage manoeveure
    12:08:15.032 - Car trajectory adjustment begins to impact human on left crumple zone, oncoming vehicle 428-59B on rear right wing crumple zone
    12:08:15.033 - Impact optimisation calculation begins
    12:08:15.035 - Suspension height adjustment begins to optimise impact of human on left crumple zone .....

  54. wow, what country are you writing from? by fantomas · · Score: 2, Interesting

    No option to walk? you should speak to your political representatives and get pedestrian walkways put in either side of the road. Even sub-Saharan African countries can afford to do this (see page 27) - it doesn't have to be expensive - so I guess your country needs to think about its priorities on spending. Which country are you writing from?

    1. Re:wow, what country are you writing from? by Rosonowski · · Score: 1

      I think the OP was speaking in a rhetorical sense, but that aside, have you ever seen the sidewalks in an area with a freeze-thaw cycle? I live in Buffalo, NY, and most of the sidewalks, even in the richer neighborhoods, are cracked to shit, either from the freeze-thaw cycle or from tree roots. I've got a nice scar in my forehead to prove it, too. (But I've told that story so many times *I*'m getting sick of it.)

      --
      01101001 01100001 01101101 01101110 01101111 01110100 01100001 01101100 01100001 01110111 01111001 01100101 01110010
  55. Oh, this is just brilliant by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    While on my daily -1 hr minimum each way- commute through northern va, en route to the DC metro area, I'm often
    given to ponder what can be done to allievate this traffic. All the tools available, such as
    rapid transit, light rail, all pale in the face of telecommuting. Since in the area surrounding DC at any rate,
    no one actually DOES anything, they just drive, and sit in cubicles. They could do that at either home, or
    general duty remote branch offices. All kinds of things could be done to allievate this more and more
    horrific traffic, without adding a single square foot of asphalt.

    But now, we can have more cars and less people driving!

    What a great idea. That will really improve things.

    Good thinking!

    Keep up the good work.

  56. Mass Transit... by Notquitecajun · · Score: 1

    Isn't this why we have mass transit in big cities? Actually, I think that it only makes sense when you're in a place where owning a car doesn't make any sense. Other than that, we need to invest in making better drivers in America. Coming from Louisiana and now living in Georgia, I can relate that that drivers in both places are TERRIBLE. Plus, there's the issue of when the technology goes wrong...you've seen the movies... Of course, this could all be like the argument that the old computer guys made when they said all we needed was maybe ten in the world or somesuch, and I could be COMPLETELY wrong and this is the Next Big Great Awesome Thing. However, we still need a place for people to drive...because it's FUN.

  57. well that's nothing... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Being legally classed as being blind, I would love to have a driverless car. I would live the independance it would bring."

    Ever see Stevie Wonder's car?

    Neither has he. ;-)

  58. Evolutionary Neural Networks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm just a simple mechanical engineer who's played around (written) a few programs that implement neural networks trained with genetic search algorithms, which is almost exactly what the article talks about. I'm also no expert on them, so take this for what it's worth.

    Since this is /., most of you probably already know what genetic algorithms are and what neural networks are. For the two of you who don't, I'll give you the quick explanation: a neural network is function who's response to a set of inputs can be tuned by adjusting a set of numbers, and a genetic search algorithm is a stochastic optimization method you use when you have plenty of computing horsepower and absolutely no fucking clue how the system works.

    The beauty of the genetic search algorithm (GSA) is also the fundamental reason this thing won't be driving cars anytime soon. GSA's optimize by experimentation, so they can and will come up with solutions that seem to work very efficiently, but make absolutely no sense to a human observer.

    So, sure, you can have a GSA train a neural network for you that lets the car drive itself. With enough development time, it'll probably work incredibly well. But when the engineers sit down to figure out how it works, they'll have absolutely no idea, and they won't be able to deterministically audit the system. That's a bad thing when you move out of the carefully controlled environment of a computer simulation, or even the test tracks of an automotive proving ground.

    What does the AI do when the left forward sensors see a stationary mid-sized red body, the right forward sensors see a small dark obstacle in the middle of the road, the lateral accelerometers are reading zero, and the right rear shock potentiometer shows the back of the car is in rebound? Well, unless your engineers can tell from the list of several million floating point numbers that comprise the neural network weights, the only way to tell is through experimentation. The AI might respond by doing nothing, it might swerve wildly, it might shut off the engine or flash the left turn signal. You've really got no way of knowing without trying it.

    There's an inherent problem in deploying a technology that you can't audit. This problem is magnified by the fact that cars can kill people. This leaves you with the impossible task of trying to replicate every possible set of physical conditions on a test track. Until we have some way of doing that, no engineering group will release such technology for this particular purpose.

  59. Ehm. no it isn't by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    The killer app for AI cars is: traffic throughput. Right now, traffic throughput is limited by our need to leave lots of space in front of our car so that we don't hit the guy in front of us. Um, no it aint.

    Traffic throughput is limited by how quickly you can get cars off a particular road. i.e. Parking. You can have cars 1/10th of a second apart, but if it takes 10 seconds to park the thing, or even 5 seconds to turn onto another road, that is the limiting factor.

    If everyone has their own car, road performance is limited by parking bandwidth. Now, if everyone used a taxi...
    --
    Deleted
    1. Re:Ehm. no it isn't by Eccles · · Score: 1

      If everyone has their own car, road performance is limited by parking bandwidth. Now, if everyone used a taxi...

      In some situations, this might actually be the solution. You don't own a vehicle, you have taxi service with an autonomous taxi. It drops you off at work, and then drives on to its next pickup. Smart algorithms mean it moves on to the nearest person with autonomous taxi needs. Smarter algorithms might allow the taxi to share taxi service, perhaps with isolated compartments for each person.

      You run into the problem, though, of commuter patterns, as you have a large group of people moving from the 'burbs to the city in the morning, and then all moving back in the afternoon. Perhaps taxis that drop you off at bus and train services would be the key.

      --
      Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a real useful invention.
    2. Re:Ehm. no it isn't by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      You run into the problem, though, of commuter patterns, as you have a large group of people moving from the 'burbs to the city in the morning, and then all moving back in the afternoon. You just need a cache of taxis at the burb/city end large enough to keep the service time down to within acceptable limits, say a 120 second wait. Bearing in mind that the taxis re-circulate once dropping off their passengers the cache doesn't have to be anything like as large as you might think.

      And it can be done today without requiring A.I. ...
      http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/prtquick. htm
      http://www.atsltd.co.uk/
      http://www.personalrapidtransit.com/

      The performance of a PRT system, like roads, is determined by how quickly people get on/off the road/vehicles rather than the distance between the vehicles or their speed. i.e. the number of bays in a station. Again, it's the interfaces which matter, not the roads/guideways etc.
      --
      Deleted
    3. Re:Ehm. no it isn't by Eccles · · Score: 1

      In my area, many people have 30 to 45 minute commutes. 90% of the taxi trips from the city center to the 'burbs would be empty, and a given cab couldn't do that many trips during one rush "hour."

      --
      Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a real useful invention.
    4. Re:Ehm. no it isn't by codemachine · · Score: 1

      Parking may not be a big issue if you can have your car drop you off, then go find itself a parking spot. Doesn't matter if it takes a long time to find a spot, and has to park a ways away, because you're already at work (or wherever your destination is).

      And as someone else mentioned, taxis and public transit may become more viable if it were tied into such a system. Your car/taxi may just have to take you to the nearest high capacity train or bus stop.

      Transporation really could be revolutionized with a number of changes, but they are always hard to make when the infrastructure is already built for another model.

  60. Towards by repetty · · Score: 1

    Is justs loves hows peoples pluralizes thes words towards.

    --Richards

  61. Re:testing & riding; was: re: In Case of Raptu by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    BMW has made it a selling point to illustrate how their cars are designed such that the forward drive train (engine + transmission) breaks free of the body and is deflected down, so that the passenger compartment rides up over the top of it. Many other high end luxury cars are similarly designed.

    Practically all cars are designed to do this. The engine and transmission mounts break (nearly all of them consist of two metal plates connected to one another only by a piece of rubber vulcanized between them) and assuming the car is right side up, gravity will cause it to go under the car instead of ending up in your lap.

    Of course, in basically all cases the engine is sitting on top of a cross member that connects the two sides of the front suspension, so in many types of collisions, this may or may not happen. But let's face it, life is made up of uncertainties and when you're moving down the road at a good clip, all kinds of crazy things are possible.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  62. Frederik Pohl by Illbay · · Score: 1
    In the late 70s, I read a very good SF book, Man Plus , by Frederik Pohl. The story was situated in the late 1990s, and everyone commuted to work by getting into the car, telling the system where to go, and settling back to read the news or watch the Today show.

    Sigh.

    --
    Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced.
  63. Please define reliable. by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    We make mistakes because we have to be flexible enough to handle the rather wild and chaotic world around us. That world isn't going to get any less chaotic, so AI systems are going to have to be similarly flexible, which means they're going to make mistakes in judgement.

    There's no such thing as perfect reliability. Is 99% reliable enough? How many people are going to be killed by an AI at that level of reliability? How big are the lawsuits going to be at that level of reliability. How about 99.99% reliable? How many people per year is that? 10, 20? Again it comes down to the level of damages when an AI system kills someone, because it absolutely will happen, there will be lawsuits over the resulting deaths and the manufacturers will be held liable.

    --
    Deleted
  64. Driving is misery by Valdrax · · Score: 1

    Seriously, this isn't just for the elderly. Driving ceased to be fun for me long ago. If I had to do it only once a week on a nice stretch of fast highway, I might feel differently....

    I hate to give a tedious, AOLer response, but... "Me too."

    I HATE driving. Hate, hate, HATE it. Every day I put my life in the hands of the collective attentiveness of every idiot on the road out there, and spend over an hour in state somewhere between abject boredom and fear of impending death just to go to work and back. It's either break-neck, wild speeders or stop-and.. well, stop traffic where I live. It's absolutely terrible, and mass transit options vary between non-existent to impractical (like a 1-2 hour trip combined with a half-hour of walking). The sooner that I can give my car over to (and more importantly the sooner all those cell-phone using idiots can turn their SUVs over to) an AI, the better.

    I miss being able to take public transit everywhere from my short three weeks in Japan years ago. It was mostly stress-free, and I could get some reading done instead of idling my brain while searching for danger on the road. One of these days, I hope to move somewhere where I can rely on mass transit again, but the way this country is going, auto-drive is more likely to be in my future than a good bus ride.

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    If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
  65. And where is my flying car??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In the 1939 Worlds Fair in New York, they predicted that everyone would have a flying car by 2000. Actually, most airliners can fly themselves from takeoff to landing.

  66. Nope, rail isn't the answer. by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    It would make far more sense just to replace the highways with rail lines, load cars onto trains, and ship them places. Then the cars can be loaded literally on top of one another. No, rail isn't the answer, the problem with loading cars onto rail cars is again, how long does it take to get the thing loaded...

    The thing is, the grandparent is incorrect, the throughput isn't defined by how close cars are together... Sure, in theory on an infinitely long road which nobody ever wants to get off of it might be but in the real world where people park and turn off of main roads onto smaller ones, it's the interfaces which cause congestion and poor road throughput.

    Quick thought experiment. We have an infintely long road, the cars are travelling 2 seconds apart. The throughput of the road is therefore about 1800 cars per hour. Now add a car park at the end of the road, it takes 10 seconds to get a ticket, open the barrier and enter the carpark. The road's throughput is now, 360 cars per hour because it's limited by the parking.

    So... How long does it take to load a car onto a train? 2 minutes on a good day?

    Say you... took the cars off the road. Created a simplified environment where there were no random incidents. No people on the road, no animals/children, no drunks, or nuts. Get rid of the steering wheel and turn the wheels into rollers on rails/guideway but kept the vehicles single person, as with cars. You would have a safe and reliable network which could go pretty much everywhere as with cars but one which wouldn't require AI, just a sensor in the front of the vehicle measuring relative speed & distance to the object in front. Now, if you did that and made stops offline, the throughput of the network could be defined by the distance between vehicles and in that simplified environment, computers could stop a vehicle very quickly indeed. Say 1/10th of a second between vehicles.
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    1. Re:Nope, rail isn't the answer. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      No, rail isn't the answer, the problem with loading cars onto rail cars is again, how long does it take to get the thing loaded...

      It doesn't have to take long. The cd-changer-type garage systems that stash cars seem to be timely enough.

      The thing is, the grandparent is incorrect, the throughput isn't defined by how close cars are together... Sure, in theory on an infinitely long road which nobody ever wants to get off of it might be but in the real world where people park and turn off of main roads onto smaller ones, it's the interfaces which cause congestion and poor road throughput.

      Well, I think it's somewhere in between the two. Also there's several ways to increase throughput; you can increase bandwidth (more lanes), you can increase frequency (cars closer together) and you can decrease latency at metered interfaces (improving the entrance/exit speed, as you suggest.) The latter is a limiting factor but it is not the only one and it is possible for roads with choke points to have all of these problems at once in different places.

      So... How long does it take to load a car onto a train? 2 minutes on a good day?

      Again, if you used a slightly more sophisticated system, probably a lot less than that.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:Nope, rail isn't the answer. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, rail isn't the answer, the problem with loading cars onto rail cars is again, how long does it take to get the thing loaded...

      Which comes back to "really neat things" mentioned elsewhere. Ferries and trains could load much more quickly and safely if we could just get the operator out of the loop. A quick back of the envelope calculation suggests that the main deck of a BC ferries C-class could conservatively load at about 2.5 cars/sec: that's less than 4 min from clear to load to clear to lift. For those who care, that's based on 15 parking lanes, 3km/h final approach speed and works out to 36km/h on the two lane loading ramp. By contrast "normal" city traffic averages to something south of 30 km/h. Additionally, since there's central control, the "flying minivan" problem goes away and the ramp safety intervals can also be greatly reduced.

    3. Re:Nope, rail isn't the answer. by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      Well, I think it's somewhere in between the two. Also there's several ways to increase throughput; you can increase bandwidth (more lanes), you can increase frequency (cars closer together) and you can decrease latency at metered interfaces (improving the entrance/exit speed, as you suggest.) The latter is a limiting factor but it is not the only one and it is possible for roads with choke points to have all of these problems at once in different places. Test the numbers, time some stuff, throughput of green lights, left, right turns etc. Adding additional lanes just transports vehicles faster to the next interface, where they get stuck in congestion caused by the low bandwidth exit. 1800 cars per hour, 3 lanes... How many exits are required to handle that kind of throughput? If you do the calculations you'll find that our road system capacity is primarily defined by the time it takes to move off the road and onto something else whether that be a parking space or another road.

      Again, if you used a slightly more sophisticated system, probably a lot less than that. If it takes longer than 2 seconds per vehicle, it's going to be making the problem worse rather than better.

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  67. I've always wondered.... by argStyopa · · Score: 1

    ...why we didn't develop something like the "cable car" system for personal vehicles.
    Kind of like, a belly-hook (or whatever device) on new cars that could engage continuously-running sub-pavement (cables/chains/whatever they use) that are under all major highways.

    Then you use your personal vehicle to drive around, but the minute you get on a major highway, you have the ability to link in, and just read a book or whatever. Since it's mechanical (no doubt supported by certain computer systems) the chances of failure could be minimal. Since all cars are moving at the same speed on a fixed path, even the consequences of failures wouldn't be too bad, I imagine.

    That would maximize the benefits of personal vehicles (flexibility) with the energy-saving, pollution-reducing, and labor-saving benefits of mass transit over highway distances.

    Personally, I'd love to take the bus/train more often, but too often REQUIRE having a car @ work for customer visits, unanticipated errands, etc. during the day.

    (hoping some urban planner reads this, goes "EUREKA!" and hands me a giant contract to plan it.)

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    -Styopa
    1. Re:I've always wondered.... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      becasue building a chain that goes 100's of miles might ahve some technical issues? and coast 100's of billions of dollars to build and maintain.

      Persoanl, I would not ride the bus or train if I didn't have to. gah..too much disease crime and stink for me.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  68. Speed limits by Autonomous+Crowhard · · Score: 1

    One of the neat things about automation is that it would have an amazing effect on the flow of traffic. Imagine if just 10% of the cars on the Interstates travelled at the speed limit? At first there would be more accidents as nuts try to road-rage a machine, but soon people would be forced to travel at the same speed. I think this alone would be beneficial to the traffic stats.

    1. Re:Speed limits by Vegeta99 · · Score: 1

      No, not really. Why do you think the interstates are limited access, multi-lane roads? So people (and automated vehicles, for that matter) can all go different speeds. You enter the roadway and prepare to exit in the rightmost lane, cruise in the middle, and pass in the left-most.

      Now, forcing people to follow THOSE rules? Not gonna happen, but certainly easier than making them all go /the same speed/.

      IIRC, people going BELOW the speed limit significantly are more dangerous than those going above.

  69. Re:In the future, it'll be a movie. by Rosonowski · · Score: 1

    It'd be a Red Barchettaof course.

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  70. Making better drivers? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    making better drivers is exactly what they're trying to do!

  71. Technology is Replacing intelligence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Technology is designed to help you, not replace you.

    This is one of those evil and highly unethical technologies that I think we all should shun - like Nuclear Power/Bombs, Cloning, and anything else. People don't want their lives governed by machines. And yet, the slashdot crowd IS TOO FUCKING DENSE to ever realize this. It's a fucking farce.

    Now that machines drive cars, we can all burn more fossil fuels and make the air we breath more cancerous and the weather more volatile for all of us. And the world will sink with the weight of the human race. Thank you, very much.

  72. freeze-thaw by fantomas · · Score: 1

    Not been to Boston but walked around part of Detroit with some local guys for a couple of days. Guess it must have been pretty central because they took me to a nice museum at one point. Seem to remember there were sidewalks there. Helsinki (Finland) pretty good for walking around as well: that is one city that's really nice to walk around, some great architecture. Not much need for a car there, trams are great as well.

  73. Mass transit costs too much time for many people.. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

    I'd have to agree. I've ridden the city bus before, but I literally had a bus stop within a block of my house, and the destination (either to junior high or downtown) was also within a block.

    Even so, I could compete with the time the bus took to get downtown from my place with my bicycle. And that was ~15 miles.

    Sure, reading while riding wasn't bad, but once you have a car and insurance the bus doesn't look like as good of a deal. $1.25, the cost of an adult far, back then bought enough gas for 30 miles, or downtown and back. Total cost on the bus would be $2.50, or twice as much as the marginal cost on the car. Add in that the car is faster and leaves on your schedule, it's a tought competition.

    That's why I like the idea of PRT. Eliminating all the stopping and even limited to 25mph, the individual car rail system would be able to beat both the car and the bus in speed, while allowing you to do something else, while being able to be powered by the relativly cheap electricity that's not being bought from a political hotbed.

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    I don't read AC A human right
  74. Correction by geekoid · · Score: 1

    Having vehicals moving at widley different sppeds causes accidents... well, really people who take risks to get around slower vehicals are the problem.

    If everyon is going 85, and one person is doing 70 you will have the same problem. Yet no one is going below the speed limit.

    The funny thing is, if everyone went the speed limit, most people would get to their destination faster, overall.

    I love moving fast, but overall having a system what automates everyone speeds would be better.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect