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The Uncertain Future of Global Population Numbers

An anonymous reader writes "The question of global population is a pretty crucial one; how many people will there be in ten years? In forty? The New York Times notes research done by a group called the Worldwatch Institute, research that concludes world population figures are too fluid to make any sort of educated guesses. Childbearing populations combined with severe resource shortages in some parts of the world make pinning down a global headcount unfeasible for ten years from now, let alone out to 2050. The article continues beyond its original borders, as well, with commenters in the field of population studies noting we don't even have a good grasp on how many people were alive in 2007."

279 comments

  1. Easy question, easy answer by ViX44 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    2007: Too many.
    Future: Way too many.

    1. Re:Easy question, easy answer by The+Ancients · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Far future: none.

      You forgot the last one, which shows we should take more notice of the preceding figures.

    2. Re:Easy question, easy answer by timmarhy · · Score: 3, Funny

      if you really think there are too many people in the world, then why not shoot yourself right now and stop contributing to the problem?

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    3. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Ambitwistor · · Score: 5, Funny

      if you really think there are too many people in the world, then why not shoot yourself right now and stop contributing to the problem? That would only get rid of one person. It would be far more effective to shoot many other people.
    4. Re:Easy question, easy answer by cp.tar · · Score: 1

      if you really think there are too many people in the world, then why not shoot yourself right now and stop contributing to the problem? That would only get rid of one person. It would be far more effective to shoot many other people.

      Getting shot in the process would make it a killer.

      --
      Ignore this signature. By order.
    5. Re:Easy question, easy answer by houghi · · Score: 4, Funny

      They are working on that issue in many US schools and post offices and apparently the terrorists are willing to help out as well.

      So the real terrorists are the people preventing all this.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    6. Re:Easy question, easy answer by utopianfiat · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      It doesn't matter if you educate them. They avoid birth control because the catholic church has moved in in the name of God and told them they'll burn in hell if they use condoms.
      Basically, the catholic church is responsible for the persistence of AIDS.

      --
      +5, Truth
    7. Re:Easy question, easy answer by STrinity · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Future: Way too many.


      People have been saying that since Malthus and predicting a massive population collapse. The funny thing is, civilization keeps finding ways to accommodate larger numbers.
       
      You should also note that most industrialized countries are pretty close to zero-population growth without immigration -- Europe is a little below ZPG, America a little above. You want to stabilize the population, focus on industrializing the Third World.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    8. Re:Easy question, easy answer by leenks · · Score: 4, Informative

      It is worse than that. The Catholic church in Africa has told people that condoms do not help in stopping AIDS as the rubber allows the HIV virus to pass through (http://media.www.westerncourier.com/media/storage/paper650/news/2003/10/29/Opinion/Catholic.Church.Claims.Condoms.Dont.Protect.Against.Aids.Virus-542117.shtml) because it is so small, and that many condoms from Europe are laced with the virus to kill off Africans (eg http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20999747/)

    9. Re:Easy question, easy answer by microbox · · Score: 2, Insightful

      People have been saying that since Malthus and predicting a massive population collapse. The funny thing is, civilization keeps finding ways to accommodate larger numbers.

      So therefore: the world will never suffer population collapse. Good thinking 86.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    10. Re:Easy question, easy answer by rjhubs · · Score: 5, Informative

      You are very mistaken, this is an extremely complicated question, moreso than TFA states. In 1798, Thomas Malthus started worrying about population growth saying because we were growing at an exponential pace. This thought continued and Hardin used at as one of his main points in his famous paper the Tragedy of the Commons. But, as this became a more important question, we have gathered more data and it turns out our assumption that population growth would stay exponential was wrong.

      Here midway on the page are some graphs of current population estimates and global growth rates. You can see that global birth rates have already declined. And even the high end estimates for global population start to taper off. Some even predict global population will decline.

      The reasons for this decline are also complicated, but the two most prevalent explanations are first, the advent of birth control finally allows women to control when they have children. And second, and more importantly, look at this picture a growth rate of 0 means the population of that country is staying at a constant level (for every birth there is a death), negative means population decline, >0 means population growth. Notice that most of what we call "industrialized" nations are at a maintenance level or are in population decrease. That includes China and India, the two most populated countries in the world. While most the population growth is just in Africa and parts of the Middle East and South America(and note the south africa and egypt don't have growth). The reason for all this is explained as, as a society gets more 'industrialized' the need for families to be larger decreases. While in places where farming is necessary for survival, the incentive to have more children (free labor) is high. Its not that Africans don't have access to birth control, its that its more beneficial for them to not use it.

      So the prevailing theory today is that as Africa gets more industrialized, their population growth will go down and global population will stabilize. We could argue about whether or not Africa will get industrialized, but I think in absence of very strong evidence, we have to believe the more industrialized a nation gets, its population growth approaches 0 or even negative.

    11. Re:Easy question, easy answer by STrinity · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So therefore: the world will never suffer population collapse.
      No, merely that doomsayers need evidence stronger than, "If we extrapolate the trendline, it shows we're all doomed," before it's worth listening to them.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    12. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Verloc · · Score: 1

      Sure, and then when the developing world reaches our resource level we'll just be using the equivalent of 6 earths in resources. We need to redefine civilization and industrialization if we are to industrialize the globe.

    13. Re:Easy question, easy answer by 0xdeadbeef · · Score: 1

      If doom wasn't predicted, why would architects of the Green Revolution such as Norman Borlaug consider increasing food production a moral imperative? You people keep dismissing the cause for the effect.

      Blind faith in technological progress is particularly dangerous mental disease. Ten years ago the Tofflerians were saying the Internet would never be controlled, that it would bring about some kind of intellectual utopia, and that we didn't government policy protecting its beautiful state of anarchy because it was bigger than any one government.

      And yet, here were are, with clandestine traffic shaping, people being banned for actually using what was advertised, and the governments of the world censoring it and finding it an easier means to spy on everyone.

    14. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      Dunno ab't Africa, but in Asia, China has a one-child policy that's been around since the late 1960's, and Japan is actually shrinking in population as their mean age shifts upward.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    15. Re:Easy question, easy answer by HeroreV · · Score: 1

      Too many people is not the problem. The problem is that we aren't making good use of our resources.

      Saying we have too many people reminds me of those network admins who whine about ever increasing hard disk capacities and how hard it is getting to back up so much data. The problem is not that hard disks hold too much data, the problem is that we haven't yet figured out a good way of backing up all that data.

      People are good (overall). I want more of them. The earth could easily support 20 billion people; we just need to figure out how to do it.

      Trying to slow down population growth (see China) is not a solution, it is a failure to find a solution. We need to figure out how to handle more people, not how to prevent there from being more people.

    16. Re:Easy question, easy answer by DeepHurtn! · · Score: 1
      You want to stabilize the population, focus on industrializing the Third World.

      But perhaps the real problem is not just the number of people, but what they're consuming. Remember that one citizen of an industrialized country consumes many times more of the world's resources -- food, oil, everything -- than a villager in sub-Saharan Africa.

    17. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 1

      Actually, the people who don't understand an exponential growth curve and what it means on a planet of finite size are the ones not worth listening to.

      --
      Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
    18. Re:Easy question, easy answer by wavedeform · · Score: 1
      People are good (overall). I want more of them. The earth could easily support 20 billion people; we just need to figure out how to do it.


      Got any facts to back these statements up? Let's take the first one "People are good (overall)" Without even getting into a discussion of what good means in this context, I would say that that about the only thing that you can say that people are (overall), is hungry on a regular basis.


      As far as the 20 billion people figure goes, if you're pulling a number out of your... let's say hat... why not produce one that gives a little more breathing room, such as 500 trillion.

    19. Re:Easy question, easy answer by STrinity · · Score: 1

      Actually, the people who don't understand an exponential growth curve and what it means on a planet of finite size are the ones not worth listening to.
      I understand what an exponential growth curve means. I also understand the difference between one and an S-curve, which is what all recent census figures indicate we're on.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    20. Re:Easy question, easy answer by tabrnaker · · Score: 1
      Um, industrializing the third world will eliminate the third world.

      Our current capitalistic/consumer culture requires us to have people to walk on top to reach our current standard of living. Lifting up the downtrodden, our society's foundation, will bring our ivory tower crumbing down.

      Are you sure you thought about that comment?

    21. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Bush+Pig · · Score: 1

      Malthus was right, he was just a couple of centuries premature.

      Just because we've so far managed to produce enough to feed ourselves in the past doesn't mean we'll be able to in the future, especially once the oil runs out.

      --
      What a long, strange trip it's been.
    22. Re:Easy question, easy answer by STrinity · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Industrializing the third world will create new markets. It might also drive up the price of labor, but when that happens it tends to create a demand for cheap automation, which inevitably makes people more prosperous because everything gets cheaper.

      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    23. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the advent of birth control finally allows women to control when they have children.

      Roe v. Wade doesn't hurt either.

    24. Re:Easy question, easy answer by tabrnaker · · Score: 1
      Yes, we are prosperous. With our mountains of discarded wealth. Where cheapness means poisonous plastic.

      Richness is not a wood box full of plastic toys.

      Which would you prefer?

      Cheap mass produced utensils which can spread disease, or silver utensils which are naturally antibacterial? A lifestyle that requires most of the population to work 8-10 hours a day instead of 1-2? 500 channels of entertainment or a true family night? An education that leaves you with no survival skills, or learning what the land provides? The extrinsic pleasure of 50 different gins, or the intrinsic pleasure inherent in the one you created?

      I really don't see how the majority of the population participating as cogs in the machine, for the dreams of a select few, is equated with prosperity. Chasing after images of beauty instead of understanding the creation of beauty, isn't wealth. Possessing beauty will never make one beautiful.

      Don't you like how tangentially that is?

    25. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Peter+La+Casse · · Score: 1

      But perhaps the real problem is not just the number of people, but what they're consuming. Remember that one citizen of an industrialized country consumes many times more of the world's resources -- food, oil, everything -- than a villager in sub-Saharan Africa.

      I used to think that this was bad, but now I realize that it's good. In our current economy, everything that is consumed has to be produced by someone, leading to economic growth. People of industrialized countries produce more than villagers in sub-Saharan Africa, driving an economy that solves problems in an upward spiral. What we need are more citizens of industrialized countries, not fewer, and not just for the sake of our social welfare promises.

    26. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Iron+Condor · · Score: 1

      2007: Too many.
      Future: Way too many.

      So why do the republicans continue to claim that there is a social security problem? That claim is based on a prediction of declining numbers of taxpayers in the productive age bracket forty years out.

      They claim to predict not only how many people there will be 10 years down the road but also how many children those people will have such that they can make a statement about the number of 30-year-olds in 2045. And half of slashdot swallows it hook, line and sinker. And yet the same people tell us that there's unchecked population growth. Somewhere there's a disconnect here...

      --
      We're all born with nothing.
      If you die in debt, you're ahead.
    27. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      we have gathered more data and it turns out our assumption that population growth would stay exponential was wrong.

      Err, human population growth globally has been exponential right up until today. That's 200 years of exponential growth since Malthus so the assumption was totally correct. What definition of exponential are you using?

    28. Re:Easy question, easy answer by OakDragon · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I thought the population "bomb" was a bit passe, anyway, and the prophets of doom had switched to global warming - er, I mean global climate change.

    29. Re:Easy question, easy answer by HeroreV · · Score: 1

      By "people are good" I meant that I like people. I like high population density and populous cities. Was my comment really that confusing?

      The 20 billion number did indeed come from my ass. Please don't feel embarrassed saying (or typing) words like "ass".

    30. Re:Easy question, easy answer by homer_ca · · Score: 1

      Malthus didn't predict that we'd hit the energy lottery. Mechanized agriculture, powered by oil, and chemical fertilizers, made from natural gas, gave us a huge bonus in food output. We're getting very close to the end of cheap oil and cheap natural gas.

    31. Re:Easy question, easy answer by wavedeform · · Score: 1

      Actually I was less confused by your original post than your fact-free reply.

      I guess you must be a glass-half-full sort of person. When I look at the world today I see nothing but problems caused either by overpopulation or individual over-consumption of resources, depending on your POV.

      And just to prove that I'm not embarrassed: ass.

    32. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      chicks hate me, they contribute a lot

    33. Re:Easy question, easy answer by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Indeed, especially since the trend line that best fits the currently data is the logistic growth curve. Which has an asymptote at ~9 billion, IIRC.

      It's left as an exercise to the reader as to whether that's caused by reduced fertility rates or increased killing each other rates.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    34. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 1

      But, that is not the only curve in play, no? We're not exactly planning our futures for a stable state. There's some kind of assumption that we're going to have more to earn and more to spend in the future, and that will always be the case. I have never met a man who wasn't planning for a constant and stable future, who I didn't then immediately pronounce a severe loser who wasn't fulfilling his quota of Earth rape.

      --
      Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
    35. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Teancum · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Don't worry.... the next issue is going to be Solar System environmentalism. In other words, now that we've screwed up the Earth, let's not spread the "disease" called humanity anywhere else. They are already building the case.

      I personally think this is as absurd of an issue as the other extremists causes, but it is something to be aware of. I don't understand Lunar environmentalism, or the desire to preserve Mars as some sort of international version of Yellowstone (actually more drastic... they don't want any human structures on Mars), but there is a group that doesn't want human development off of the Earth. Watch for it, and how new human settlements will have to start with environmental regulations from h***.

      It will be real interesting just how far those who get up there decide to take all that legal BS and tell the people of the Earth to shove it.

      So if it isn't one thing, it will be another.

    36. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Kagura · · Score: 1

      Put very simply, I have a hard time not picturing a far future in which a war escalated into nuclear war has not brought modern civilization to its knees, where it will remain for decades or centuries until it perhaps rises to the level of civilization and quality of life that we enjoy in 2008.

      Does anybody have any wildly different expectation for the future?

    37. Re:Easy question, easy answer by LinuxLuver · · Score: 1

      That's a really dumb suggestion. Better to shoot people who make similarly dumb suggestions rather than recognise and deal constructively with problems.

      --
      Only boring people are ever bored.
    38. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Kelbear · · Score: 1

      In addition to the above, one theory of explanation looked at child-rearing from an economic perspective. The economic benefit of producing many chilren for farmwork and support during retirement starts to fall relative to the economic benefit of producing fewer children and investing in an education. When there's more economic opportunity the benefit of investing capital in a child's education gets higher and higher. The cost of the investment is prohibitive and there are positive economies of scale in the education, so more money ends up pumped into fewer children.

      Taking into acconut the reasons in the parent post, this also applies to the women. Having a child brings some sentimental value, but it is also expensive in terms of time and money. This time and money is weighed against the woman's education and career opportunities. As economic opportunities expand for the mothers, they have incentive to have fewer or no children at all.

    39. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Bertie · · Score: 1

      Yeah, and it's quite obvious where it is: Population growth is not uniform. Look at the title of this article - global population numbers. Not "Population numbers in the industrialised West", which are stable at best.

      Basically the sooner the Baby Boomers die off, the better for everybody they'll be leaving behind, as they're making one hell of a mess of the environment as well as the economy.

    40. Re:Easy question, easy answer by Author+of+5SB · · Score: 1

      I came across this post as the result of a Google Alert. It's refreshing to see so many people concerned about population growth. I'd like to add an entirely new dimension to the discussion. I am the author of a new book titled "Five Short Blasts: A New Economic Theory Exposes The Fatal Flaw in Globalization and Its Consequences for America." This new theory proposes that, as population density grows beyond some optimum level, per capita consumption begins to decline. This happens because, as people are forced to crowd together and conserve space, it becomes ever more impractical to own many products. Declining per capita consumption, in the face of rising productivity (which always rises), inevitably yields rising unemployment and poverty. And poverty is the leading cause of death around the world. This theory has major ramifications for U.S. policy regarding population and trade. The population implication is obvious, but why trade? It's because these effects of a high population density - unemployment and poverty - are actually imported when we attempt to engage in free trade with nations that are much more densely populated. We essentially become a combined nation with a combined labor force. The work of manufacturing is spread evenly across the combined labor force. The more densely populated nation gets free access to our healthy market while we, in return, receive access to a market that is emaciated by crowding and low per capita consumption. The result is an automatic, irreversible trade deficit and a loss of jobs. Typically, anyone who expresses concern about population growth is immediately dismissed by economists as a Malthusian. In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus wrote his "Essay on Population." In this essay he theorized that the human population, which tends to grow exponentially, would always be held in check by a shortage of food, the production of which only grows arithmetically, he thought. The effects of this shortage became known as "misery and vice" and Malthus' theory caused the field of economics to be dubbed "The Dismal Science." Of course, Malthus had no way of foreseeing the incredible advances that would be made in food production through fertilization, irrigation, mechanized plowing and harvesting, genetic seed development, and so on. But he was ultimately proven wrong and is now reviled by economists. To this day, economists are taught to ignore the effects of population growth. They dismiss it by assuming that man is ingenious enough to overcome any resource shortage or harm to the environment through conservation, recycling, yield improvement, substitution, and so on. Unlike Malthus, my theory deals not with resources but with space. The very act of attempting to use space more efficiently does harm to the economy by driving down per capita consumption and increasing unemployment and poverty. It is utterly unavoidable. Additional space cannot be created. Erecting taller buildings is the very epitome of conserving space. A single foundation is shared by more tenants. Walls are shared. Floors and ceilings are shared, and so on, reducing the per capita consumption of all the materials used in their construction. Space cannot be created by pushing back the sea, as the Dutch have done, because it simply raises the sea level infinitesimally, reducing space slightly in all other regions of the world. If you're interested in learning more about this new theory, please visit my web site at OpenWindowPublishingCo.com, where you can read the preface for free, join in my blog discussion and even purchase the book if you like. (It's also available at Amazon.com.) The book is written in plain language -not economic gibberish - and is aimed at average Americans. Forgive the spammish nature of this reply, but I don't know how else to inject this new thinking into the discussion of population growth without at least letting people know the origin of this new idea. Pete Murphy Author, Five Short Blasts

  2. Almost 7 Billion People... by cjfs · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ... and all still on the same rock.

    We need to get out more.

    1. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by cp.tar · · Score: 1

      It's not clear if sending one person to another world will ever cost less resources than what's needed to sustain that person on Earth for a lifetime.

      Sending two persons to another world at once would cost less than sending them separately.
      It is a matter of building a big enough ship. And of not only removing those persons from Earth, but all their future population as well.

      --
      Ignore this signature. By order.
    2. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by CRCulver · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It is a matter of building a big enough ship

      One of the major themes of Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy (namely the volume Blue Mars ) is that immigration into outer space cannot solve Earth's population problems. You could never move enough people off at once to counter the people being born at that same instant.

    3. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by sckeener · · Score: 1

      You could never move enough people off at once to counter the people being born at that same instant.

      Sure you can. It is just a question of dedication. If the ancient greeks could found colonies to solve their population problems and create trading partners at the same time, then we can do it.

      The major difference between then and now is resources devoted to the task. I mean if everyone on the planet was in some way contributing to the space effort, I'm pretty sure we could shift some of our population.

      Admittedly it would an on going process and we couldn't limit ourselves to sol colonies. We'd have to think bigger and develop generational spacecrafts to send to other solar systems. Send a few men with a ton of women and include a genetics bank to draw on once the colony is established. Sending more women would solve issues on earth and space.

      Or better yet, develop artificial wombs and send unmaned spacecraft with only genetic samples. The ones providing the dna can then be sterilized on earth knowing that they have contributed.

      The chief obstacle is our own genetic heritage. There are many traits that have been useful over the eons, but will be a problem in the future. One example I can give that is current is garbage. In the past we could make a mess and walk away. Now we have to do something with it. Lucy didn't have those issues and no other primate other than man has this issue.

      There are others...criminal activity probably gave us an advantage in the past, but if we want everyone to survive we are going to have to work towards the common good...

      --
      "Only one thing, is impossible for god: to find any sense in any copyright law on the planet." Mark Twain
    4. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by yotto · · Score: 1

      Or better yet, develop artificial wombs and send unmaned spacecraft with only genetic samples. The ones providing the dna can then be sterilized on earth knowing that they have contributed.

      That will only lower the population of artificial wombs and genetic samples. How will that help population growth?

      For the record, I don't support solar system/galactic colonization because of population growth. I support it because I want to see what Jupiter looks like from Ganymede with my own eyes.

    5. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by njh · · Score: 1

      If space elevators are really $10/kg, then it would be plenty cheap to move everyone to space (total cost per person say $2k, so 14 trillion total - how much did the iraq war cost?). Once established in space, we have vast amounts of real estate from mars to the asteroids.

      Whether it is a good idea to bank on such a future is a different question.

    6. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by mac1235 · · Score: 1

      The ancient Greeks only had to walk for a few weeks, and then kill off the indigenous people to make a colony. Getting out of earth's gravity well is a bit harder. Also, with modern medicine and not practicing exposure, our growth rate is higher.

    7. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      On the plus side, there are no people on Mars to kill off.

    8. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by perlchild · · Score: 1

      I think you managed to dance around the problem's very core. The problem of overpopulation is underpinned by our resources being taxed, we are unlikely to be able to motivate everyone to spend resources they want to have to live, to allow someone else to live somewhere else, especially if it's resource intensive. Now terraforming another globe of rock nearby is not going to be cheap, nor is finding one further away that needs less 'forming. I think we're going to have to learn to live with each other and within our energy/resource means instead, just from a cost/benefits analysis standpoint.

    9. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by gd23ka · · Score: 1

      "You could never move enough people off at once to counter the people being born at that same instant."

      Science and fiction contents may vary across different pieces of literature. So that's a plot element Kim Stanley chose for her prose. Just because something is in a science fiction novel doesn't mean it's true though.

    10. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by CRCulver · · Score: 1

      Kim Stanley Robinson is a man. If you don't know that, you should hand in your geek credentials.

    11. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by gd23ka · · Score: 1

      Having sex with the author never crossed my mind.

    12. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by Naturalis+Philosopho · · Score: 1

      It's not about population control, decrease, or anything else regarding the Earth. It's about the biological imperative to reproduce one's species. Once we've seeded other star systems, the Earth can go hang as the species will go on. (And the Earth will become unlivable for humans be it from massive climate shifts soon or the far future when the sun expands this far our in the system, it's just a matter of whether or not it's our only home when it does.)

      After all, look how well colonization worked out for the Greeks in the long term. They are a major economic and military superpower still, aren't they?

    13. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by StaticEngine · · Score: 1

      Clearly you're not aware of the combined physics and genetic engineering research to develop a Railgun Vagina.

    14. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by xilmaril · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but in the Mars trilogy, they did it anyway, and the idea of not putting all their eggs in one basket was just one reason why.

      Also, there's a segment of any society that really wants to go see the fronter, and they really haven't had one for the last century or so. It'd be nice if antisocial but otherwise very useful types could go build a new civilization on mars, I think...

    15. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by John+Newman · · Score: 1

      After all, look how well colonization worked out for the Greeks in the long term. They are a major economic and military superpower still, aren't they?
      Thanks to their spread, they did manage to make themselves the major economic, cultural and military power in the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East for almost 2000 years (c. 480 BC to 1453 AD). Not too shabby for the inhabitants of a tiny peninsula of barely-fertile rock. In the long term, of course, we are all dead.
    16. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by Kelbear · · Score: 1

      The thread comments in a recent slashdot discussed the problems in financing long term space exploration/colonization/capital ventures. The cost is prohibitive, risk is high, and payoff is a long long way off. Possibly longer than the lifetime of the investor. It would need a pretty spectacular reward to outweigh investment opportunities at home.

      Not an insurmountable problem if space travel tech becomes efficient enough, but it's certainly a big one.

    17. Re:Almost 7 Billion People... by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Don't forget, their cultural legacy is still alive and well to this day: their language is one of the roots of our language, being part of many of our words (especially scientific ones), we know the names of all their gods, their math and philosophy is still taught, etc. You can't say the same for most other ancient cultures.

  3. Self limiting to a certain extent? by slap20 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As populations grow out of control, lack of food and resources in some parts of the world will limit population growth, and as diseases and virus' change, our antibiotics are becoming less effective. I think the issue with population levels, and the rapid rate of growth that we are seeing, is far more worrysome than global warming. At least in my opinion. I think we are starting to approach a critical mass point, where we are going to have to start doing something, start making large changes soon. Whether it be global warming, over-population, or some other issue, each is only one of many "Holy crap what are we going to do?" problems. I would love to see the release of Duke Nukem Forever, but will we really be around to see it? :-)

    -Eric-

    --
    ~Liberalism Is A Mental Disorder~
    1. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Bill+Dog · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think the issue with population levels, and the rapid rate of growth that we are seeing, is far more worrysome than global warming.

      Then I must notify you that you are thinking an unacceptable thought. With all the fluidity and complexity and variables in population change, it's okay to admit we can't predict, but with all the fluidity and complexity and variables in climate change, we can be certain of Global Warming.

      --
      Attention zealots and haters: 00100 00100
    2. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Shikaku · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Maybe I'm too hopeful of humanity, but if there's more people born and surviving in general, wouldn't that mean that those more people will be able to somehow INCREASE the world capacity of human life on earth in some way? Or better yet, maybe those people will help us in some other way, like inventing neat things for us, useful or just fun in general. For example, cheap space travel or terraforming. I say we should do nothing about the population problem except increase the capacity in all ways possible.

    3. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by mlts · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What I'm worried about is a perfect storm for a disease to hit. First, people are moving into more densely packed areas where human contact with many others is a must for most of the day. Second, with the wide ranging of travel, a bug which started in Arizona can make it to Berlin in a matter of hours and start infecting people. Lastly, even existing bacteria and viruses seem to be giving us trouble, as they mutate into strains resistant to known antibiotics.

      Its theorized that diseases that hit a high population tend to mutate into more lethal forms because it helps them spread more easily.

      I just hope that modern science could defuse a pandemic before it turned into the next black plague.

    4. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by MindPhlux · · Score: 0

      what the heck is a 'perfect storm'

    5. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by timmarhy · · Score: 2, Informative
      most reputable models point to a leveling out of the worlds population at 10 billion. personally seeing as we are at 6.6billion now i think we will pass that point by another 5.

      The reason we will peak is because if it wasn't for immigration developed countries would have had a negative growth rate, that coupled with the AIDS virus and effective birth control. poor countries will develop and large families will not be needed anymore. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html

      no doubt there will be alarmists that claim there is already too many people in the world, but that's their bullshit code for "we are more important than everyone else"

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    6. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by WaltBusterkeys · · Score: 1

      The expression "perfect storm" was popularized by the 2000 movie of the same title.

      The idea is that two or more bad things that are both rare individually happen at the same time, so that any response system is overwhelmed. In the movie, it was a typical Nor'easter (a big winter storm off the coast of Massachusetts) that was given additional fuel by the remnants of a hurricane moving in from the south. A fishing boat is big enough to handle either one of those, but not both.

    7. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by countvlad · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'm sure the population numbers are "fluid" but I think sure we can safely say it's monotonically increasing (albeit not in a strictly mathematical sense).

      No, the GP is right on this one. I'm far more concerned with overpopulation, because it's a driving force for the causes of global warming. As grossly overpopulated areas industrialize - and grow - so to will CO2, CFC, et al, emissions. And that's aside from the other obvious impacts on the environment overpopulation has, including the need for vast amounts of natural resources, which has and will lead to the destruction of the largest forests on this planet.

      Growing populations are clearly more of a detriment to the environment than global warming, which is still arguably "part of nature". By your own admission, there are many variables in climate change, and given our inability to determine even the most basic weather phenomenon or reach consensus on global warming, the *certain* effects the overpopulation are far greater AND more likely.

    8. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by IamTheRealMike · · Score: 1

      You should read the global baby bust. Under-population threatens to be a serious problem to developed economies in future - this is partly why immigration is allowed in such large numbers. I'm not saying it'll happen for sure, but I can well believe that in 30 years we'll look back on worries about over-population the same way we look at 70s worries about global cooling today.

    9. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by sudo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      From that article ... "But having averted the danger of overpopulation, the world now faces the opposite problem: an aging and declining population." (Written by another corporate sponsored lapdog working for the "New American" think-tank)

      In the article, it was estimated that the U.S. was going to reach a peak of 1.1Billion ... where a city the size of New York is built every 10 months.

      Yeah, sounds like an underpopulation problem to me. The article had very rose colored glasses on and completely ignored major factors, like overcrowding and deterioration of available physical resources.

      Overpopulation is not just a problem in the future, it's a problem now, dammit.

    10. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Spitfire75 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "If all living things strive to satisfy their innate urges, none ever forgets to go forth and multiply. They can't: wild creatures are programmed to breed for nothing, certainly not for old-age care. Homo sapiens, exceptional by its brain, broke this rule. Though sex remains one of the most powerful human instincts, intelligence, or the contraceptives it invents, allows people the fun without the function. Evolution has made us the thinking beings who know how to trade blind multiplication for the good life. This unique intelligence could also, however, make us the only species to vanish on its own, smoothly, without any ecological disruption typical of all previous extinctions. This most-evolved animal constitutes, in many ways, evolution's end of the road. The moment a wave hits its shore, it swiftly disappears."

      From this. Long, but very worth the read if you find this stuff as interesting as I do.
      http://endofspecies.com/?page_id=10

    11. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by TheRaven64 · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      As populations grow out of control, lack of food and resources in some parts of the world will limit population growth, and as diseases and virus' change, our antibiotics are becoming less effective Yup. Eventually the problem will take care of itself in the form of plagues, mass famines and so on. Having been fortunate enough to be born into one of the more affluent parts of the world, most of this will probably not affect me directly, but I'd still rather we avoided it globally. Arthur C. Clarke probably had it right with his prediction of the burning of the Vatican in 2015 - without the Catholic church opposing birth control the situation in a lot of parts of the developing world would be a lot better.
      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    12. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by STrinity · · Score: 1

      As populations grow out of control, lack of food and resources in some parts of the world will limit population growth, and as diseases and virus' change, our antibiotics are becoming less effective
      Thank you, Malthus, but in the 210 years since you first made that prediction, it hasn't come true.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    13. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by hawkfish · · Score: 1

      Under-population threatens to be a serious problem to developed economies in future - this is partly why immigration is allowed in such large numbers.
      Assuming we ever get there. Have a look at Jared Diamond's Collapse. I agree that it could be an issue if we do get there, but it is not clear to me that we will.

      I'm not saying it'll happen for sure, but I can well believe that in 30 years we'll look back on worries about over-population the same way we look at 70s worries about global cooling today.
      Plese stop repeating this meme - it is simply not true.
      --
      You will not drink with us, but you would taste our steel? - Walter Matthau, The Pirates
    14. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by MtViewGuy · · Score: 1

      I think the limitations on how much fresh water we can get and how much food we can grow on a per acre/hectare basis will limit how far human population can grow. It's also an issue of how we can transport foodstuffs around at reasonable prices, too. I see a possible dramatic drop in human population growth until new technologies that replace most of our current petroleum usage become widely available.

    15. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by STrinity · · Score: 2, Informative

      What I'm worried about is a perfect storm for a disease to hit.
      A perfect storm for a disease is what happened when Cortes met the Aztecs. There appear to have been very few or no diseases in Precolumbian America, so once European diseases were introduced, they ripped through the native population with an estimated 90% lethality rate. For a perfect storm to occur again, you'd need a completely virgin population, which doesn't exist in the modern world.

      Its theorized that diseases that hit a high population tend to mutate into more lethal forms because it helps them spread more easily.
      Just the opposite -- a disease that starts as highly lethal and highly contagious will evolve to being higly lethal, but not very contagious, or very contagious but not very lethal. Being highly lethal is an unstable niche unless the disease takes a long time to kill, as with HIV. Viruses and bacteria, like all forms of life, tend to evolve towards an equilibrium with their environment (i.e., us), so killing everyone is a bad idea for them. Diseases start out as lethal when introduced to a new population that has no immunity, as with the Americas after first contact, and Europe during the Black Death, but then settle into a steady state with much lower death-rates. Common equilibria for diseases tend to be, (A) minor annoyances like the cold and chronic conditions like herpes, which make people sick, but not so much so that they don't go out and spread it, (B) more significant annoyances like the flu, which can lay people up, but is generally non-lethal to anyone but the elderly, (C) long term chronic diseases like HIV that take years to kill, and (D) childhood diseases like chicken pox, where the adult population has aquired an immunity and the disease has no one to infect but children.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    16. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by fast+penguin · · Score: 1

      The decline in the work force in western world is not really that sharp that it would damage the economy -- especially ridicule when you consider the productivity increases. The bigger issue is the work-force/retired population ratio. Its a problem because of the short-sighted way politicians in most countries implemented social security. Its a ponzi scheme and they have been doing all kinds of gymnastics to keep it going -- extending the contributors pool, reducing on the work-wage/retirement-pay, increasing the retirement age, and other tricks. If this was done in the private sector, you can be sure, a few people would be going for jail if they come up with such a scheme.
      Similarly, medical assistance is paid through taxation of the current work force, so it puts a lot of stress in the economy, as taxes necessarily have to be increased. In my country, they have opted now for reducing medical assistance (which is provided entirely via taxes, managed by bureaucrats), so clinics on cities that people go to retire have been closing. First, the emergency room, now its the entire service.

      But then who would work to pay for the care of the elderly? I am no expert in economics, just an autodidact who started studying it to not look like an idiot when others were discussing it, but I personally like the idea of savings on commodities. Its true that they oscillate in price -- demand can be especially alarming as people discover ways to go without them -- but supply tends to become more expensive, and there are always uses for them. And you can diversify. So social security should just keep reserves of oil, metals, etc. ;) Even the Greens would like it, as it ensures some sustainability in using earth resources. Investing in capital will also get you dividends while developing the economy. Anyway, of course you want to privatize it, and let the free market find the best strategy.

      --
      My worst enemy gave me a copy of Windows for Christmas.
    17. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by mysticgoat · · Score: 1

      You are more optimistic than I am.

      The population crash will reduce the number of people on the world by 99%. Depending on what we do today, the remaining 70 million people will either be pushed back into a stone age existence, or be ready to usher in a Golden Age that could last a millenium or longer.

      If we package our current knowledge in ways that will survive the turmoils of the great crash, and are easily accessible to the survivors, then they will have the wealth of the emptied cities and farmlands to work with. The deserted tractors and trucks. The empty roads and rails. Irrigation systems and sewage systems that could be brought back into operation. And, if we figure out how to provide it to them, the knowledge to use this wealth of resources in a sane way.

      When you next see a newborn squinting at the world from its swaddling of baby blanket, remind yourself that you could be looking at one of the 70 million survivors.

      What do you know that you could pass on to those kids, that would make their life better? How could you transmit your knowledge across the crash?

    18. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      Thank you, Malthus, but in the 210 years since you first made that prediction, it hasn't come true.

      Yet.

      You do realize (and perhaps this is rhetorical since you don't seem to) that "210 years" is, let's see ...

      A quick search for "age of humans" comes up to about 1.5 million years.

      So a tiny fraction of the denominator.

      So give Malthus a break, it's hard to be that accurate when you're working with big numbers. Unfortunately, I think he will be correct sooner or later. "Sooner or later" being fairly small numbers in this case (less than 1000).

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    19. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by bar-agent · · Score: 1

      A perfect storm for a disease is what happened when Cortes met the Aztecs. There appear to have been very few or no diseases in Precolumbian America, so once European diseases were introduced, they ripped through the native population with an estimated 90% lethality rate. For a perfect storm to occur again, you'd need a completely virgin population, which doesn't exist in the modern world.

      No, the Aztecs weren't wiped out by European disease.

      Usually, they say Cortes brought smallpox to the Aztecs, who had never been exposed to it before, and it wiped them out. This is incorrect on all counts, as related by this Discover article from a few years ago.

      First, the Aztecs had been exposed to smallpox before the Europeans ever came. They knew about the disease and had a name for it. They weren't a virgin population.

      Second, it wasn't even smallpox that took them out. The symptoms didn't match at all. It was a hemorrhagic fever like Ebola.

      Third, it wasn't the Europeans that brought this disease. The Aztecs knew about the hemorrhagic fever, too, and had a name for it.

      What actually happened, was that the Aztecs had the bad luck to be invaded by the Spanish and wiped out by a recurring native plague shortly thereafter.

      --
      i'd hit it so hard, if you pulled me out you'd be the king of britain [bash.org]
    20. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

      You read too much science fiction. The world keeps chugging along the way its always chugging along.

      If this were WWII or the start of the Cold War when crazy dictators were busy killing literally millions of their own citizens, you might be able to justify your paranoia. But frankly, we're not doing so bad right now.

    21. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by tabrnaker · · Score: 1
      Critical mass point? Humans are very short sighted, blinded by their vices.

      That thing you see coming up, that's the edge of the cliff. Rest assured, the world will scramble to do something. Of course, it'll only be after we're off the cliff in mid air.

      Unsustainability is the reason why civilizations don't last. It's in the very definition of the word. As long as our civilization is unsustainable it will have an end in the near future. It's simple logic.

      As long as people abdicate their responsibilities we will never be sustainable. Sustainability is something that must mature in each human, it is not something that can be imposed by governments.

      I'm sure that in past civilizations, there were people with open eyes seeing the coming end. How many will see, when our western culture is dependent on the seven deadly sins for economic growth?

    22. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by tabrnaker · · Score: 1
      I'm currently working on a framework to 'create' a new culture. A database of sorts, with cultural information from around the world. Old world culture combined with the science of understanding. Not just a list of commands like the bible, but explanations of why, e.g., why do we boil water? Why salt meat? Why kill in a kosher manner, why am i unclean if my boyfriend jizzed on me :) haha

      There are so many sustainable practices that have grown out of cultures that have lasted millenia, but nobody seems to know about them. My goal is to develop an open system, that allows anybody to plug in whatever information they know about a subject, at whatever level of detail, and have that information shared openly. Designed like a human brain, it would be a tool for us to catalog and analyze the world around us.

      My only concern is how to make it independent of a computer? I know how to generate electricity, from the smelting on up to wire wrapping. However, i don't know how to construct even a simple 2.4Ghz cpu to run the program on :)

      Printed is nice, but gets stale quickly.

    23. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Agripa · · Score: 1

      What do you know that you could pass on to those kids, that would make their life better?

      How to jump to nuclear fusion based power from the stone age would be a good one.
    24. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by mysticgoat · · Score: 1

      Ah, for the simple enjoyments of blind optimism! As the guy carrying the umbrella said on the early Spring day: "You be optimistic... and I'll be dry."

      But perhaps it is worth it to some to filter their inputs through rosey glasses, if they have no intention of letting any worries get in the way of their chosen life style. Party on, Dude! You might as well, because I don't think you've got anything of value to contribute to the discussion, gentle ad hominems like your post included.

      So party on! And just don't bother to read these kinds of discussions any more, ok? You cannot contribute anything of value when you deny the validity of the data, and you will only get upset when you are told to go back to your toys and games.

    25. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

      Look. Your daily routine today is pretty much the exact same as it was 20 years ago. Nothing fundamental has changed. What makes you think something fundamental will change in the next 20? I can predict that in 20 years: the trestle I take to work will still have too many cars on it, the train will periodically get stopped because of mudslides, and everything I know and love now will still exist, with possibly a few new additions to the list.

      Discussions like this always remind me of the Christians who are convinced, utterly convinced, that the Rapture (which hasn't happened in the last two thousand years) is going to start any second now! I'm not an optimist, I'm a realist... and based on my experience the world just keeps chugging along the same way it always has, despite human paranoia about nuclear war, terrorism, biological disaster, etc.

    26. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by mysticgoat · · Score: 1

      Your daily routine today is pretty much the exact same as it was 20 years ago. Nothing fundamental has changed.

      Twenty years ago I had leisure time. I saw probably 25 movies a year. I read 50-100 books a year, most of them novels. I had hobbies. I took day trips on some weekends to the beach or mountains, often enough that they were not really special. I had dreams that I thought I could make manifest.

      None of that is true today. I saw fewer than half a dozen movies last year; getting out of town for a hike is a rare special occasion; my reading is constrained by a need to develop skills for the problems I expect to have to work on tomorrow. Hobbies are a memory. Dreams are for sleeping— no longer for pursuing in waking time.

      Despite making more money, I have less leisure time, and less resources available for pursuits other than career or business. My bank account is bigger, but I've got much less real wealth in my daily life.

      I'm not alone, either.

      Twenty years ago, the rails and roads you use were twenty years younger. Things were not needing repairs so often as they now do, and the cost of those repairs was much easier to bear. There was also much less pressure on those resources than there is now. The infrastructure that supports your life style was designed with a lot of surplus capacity and safety margin: much of that extra capacity and margin no longer exists: it is now being used.

      If the quality of your life has not degraded over the last 20 years, consider yourself one of the fortunate few. The more likely case is that your situation has also degraded, but accepting that fact would make going on with it too painful an experience, and the subconscious protective mechanism of denial has kicked in for you. Sorry to prick your bubble, but it is unfair for you to urge everyone else to go along with the delusions that have kept you reasonably happy. Let each find his own way to cope with a very uncertain world, where trusted bridges can collapse beneath you at any time when they fail from the increased loads put on them.

    27. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

      Twenty years ago I had leisure time. I saw probably 25 movies a year. I read 50-100 books a year, most of them novels. I had hobbies. I took day trips on some weekends to the beach or mountains, often enough that they were not really special. I had dreams that I thought I could make manifest.

      So stop working so hard, if you don't enjoy it. If you'd rather see 25 movies a year, take some time off and do that. The reason you no longer thing you can make your dreams manifest is simply because you've become such a cynical pessimist, the exact reason we're having this discussion.

      That says nothing about society in general. You can change your own life, but that's not what we're talking about here.

      Despite making more money, I have less leisure time, and less resources available for pursuits other than career or business. My bank account is bigger, but I've got much less real wealth in my daily life.

      So fix that. Get a lower-paying job which provides you with more leisure time. If your bank account's so big, retire! Work at Wal-Mart as a greeter, or get a job at the local McDonalds. You're a hell of a lot better off, financially at least, than I am, and you're still here whinging about how horrible the world is.

      Twenty years ago, the rails and roads you use were twenty years younger.

      Actually, they're laying new rails right now as we speak. And the highway I would use if I commuted in my car was just expanded to 4 lanes from two along half its length, with the other have planned for this summer. Maybe you just live in a place with crappy roads/railroads?

      Things were not needing repairs so often as they now do, and the cost of those repairs was much easier to bear.

      [Citation needed] What makes you think things needed fewer repairs in the past? What makes you think those repairs were "easier to bear?" What does "easier to bear" even mean, cheaper maybe?

      Unless you can give me some actual fact here and not just nostalgia-fueled vagueries, I'm calling BS on this particular point. Sorry.

      There was also much less pressure on those resources than there is now. The infrastructure that supports your life style was designed with a lot of surplus capacity and safety margin: much of that extra capacity and margin no longer exists: it is now being used.

      True. And it all still works just as reliably as it did when it was built. So what?

      Look, I agree whole-heartedly that this country needs to engage in a program of aggressive building of power plants (preferably nuclear), power lines, and various other pieces of infrastructure. The stuff we have works, yes, and it's still over-built, it's just not over-built enough. Nothing about that last paragraph indicates that the world is going to hell, it just means we have to work on the same thing we've always had to work on: improving things.

      If the quality of your life has not degraded over the last 20 years, consider yourself one of the fortunate few.

      Woot.

      The more likely case is that your situation has also degraded, but accepting that fact would make going on with it too painful an experience, and the subconscious protective mechanism of denial has kicked in for you. Sorry to prick your bubble, but it is unfair for you to urge everyone else to go along with the delusions that have kept you reasonably happy.

      Oh yeah, I'm the delusional one.

      Let each find his own way to cope with a very uncertain world, where trusted bridges can collapse beneath you at any time when they fail from the increased loads put on them.

      Hey, here's a foundation of my positive philosophy: no matter how great the world is, shit happens. Bridges collapsed on occasion, maybe a truck caught on fire (like that overpass in LA), maybe some inspector screwed up, or maybe there was a big storm and it sank (like one of Seattle's floating bridges). You'll just have to deal with it, it's not a perfect world.

      However, it is a pretty goddamned good world.

      (I blame that nasty model of pessimistic sci-fi written during the Cold War, personally. That and large doses of rationality-killing nostalgia.)

    28. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by pangur · · Score: 1
      For a perfect storm to occur again, you'd need a completely virgin population, which doesn't exist in the modern world.


      Welcome to Slashdot, as close to a completely virgin population as it gets.

    29. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by mysticgoat · · Score: 1

      This discussion has now gone well outside the realm of rational argument.

      I am content with what I have said here.

      I don't feel any great need to convince anyone about the rightness of my position. Enough has been said that any prudent person who is just coming upon this argument will explore the data themself, form their own opinion, and act accordingly.

      There is a great deal that can be done without a whole lot of cost to help safeguard the internet and other global infrastructure from destruction during a worldwide catastrophe. In fact the ancestor of the internet was deliberately designed to do that, and it still manages to carry all kinds of overlayed cruft, like a mindnumbing amount of porn, and of course slashdot. The work that needs to be done is mostly just staying aware of what 70 million survivors scattered across the globe would need if they were to rebuild civilization in a sane way, and planning our decisions about infrastructure with that contingency in mind. It is sort of like building a new house in New Orleans: yes, build it so the windows can be easily shuttered; yes, build it so it won't flood; yes, use hurricane strapping to tie the beams to the foundation, and the roof to the walls. Not much added cost, really, mostly just foresight.

      Or maybe another hurricane will never visit New Orleans. That's optimism for ya!

    30. Re:Self limiting to a certain extent? by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I ask you to cite an actual fact instead of boring everyone with nostalgia-fueled BS, and you immediately give up. And start ranting about 70 million survivors of... some... thing.

      Enough has been said that any prudent person who is just coming upon this argument will explore the data themself, form their own opinion, and act accordingly.

      Hard to do when you haven't actually provided any data.

      I'm chalking that up as a win for my team. Woot.

  4. And your evidence is...? by Wellington+Grey · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Optimists cite plunging fertility rates in some countries as evidence that Earth's human passenger list will not reach 9 billion. Pessimists see a chance of zooming well past that mark, and they add that with all the signs of strained resources (what's the price of oil today?), this trajectory will lead to some hard knocks. Some say we've already shot over the edge of the cliff and, like Wile E. Coyote in the old cartoons, simply haven't noticed.

    Looks to me like the optimists actually have some evidence behind them. The more crowded the world gets, the more expensive it will be to have many children, and the fewer people will have.

    -Grey

    1. Re:And your evidence is...? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Population is tied in with technological advancements which allow for the natural equilibrium to be artificially shifted. Overpopulation leads to conflict which leads to technological advancement and population reduction. The technological advancement resulting from the conflict enables future generations to strain the earth's capacity to unprecedented levels.

    2. Re:And your evidence is...? by HeLLFiRe1151 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Population has always been tied to economic and survival factors. When you see famine in Africa, you think why do they have more kids? They think they need more kids so that one or two might survive. It's exactly the same for most animals.

      --
      I've got 101 mod points and you can't have them!
    3. Re:And your evidence is...? by NMerriam · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I can't even tell if I'm an optimist or a pessimist by this standard, since it seems clear that both cases are true. I don't know why it is pessimistic to believe population will grow to 9 billion, I'd think that was the "good news" scenario, where mortality declines and resources are used more effectively, the way both trends have gone for the past several hundred years.

      Sure, when a society gets to a certain economic and technological stage, your birth rate declines (and in some first world countries is already below the replacement rate). So as the rest of the world catches up to our standard of living, we'll eventually reach some sort of rough global population plateau, but I seriously doubt we're going to hit that limit in a matter of decades. Africa could easily hold another one or two billion people with no new technology, just economic maturity.

      Yeah, peak oil and whatever other resource issues crop up will be a pain in the butt to deal with, but eventually they will be dealt with and the population will keep growing. Even the looming global disaster of fresh water is just a single technology breakthrough away from being an interesting historical footnote.

      --
      Recursive: Adj. See Recursive.
    4. Re:And your evidence is...? by TapeCutter · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yes we are all organic, the input of energy from oil and coal over the last 100/200 yrs has been reflected in a food and population explosion (germ theory was an added bonus). However, the byproducts from that energy boost have screwed up the environment to such an extent it will show up in the fossil record as 'the sixth great extinction' (along with a global layer of plastic dust). Vast tract of ocean are no longer productive, changes in storm tracks are screwing with harvests, even Santa's castle is melting.

      Econimists are now saying we must account for waste as a cost (insurance underwriters were saying it first), we need them (among others) to find a 'soft landing' for when oil declines and coal becomes expensive (due to sane emmision controls). However when I look at the politics and past civilization that have succum to rapid environmental change, I think it's more than likely that we will see a global population crash this century. Of course we will call the crash a war and blame the whole thing (including the initial shortage of resources), on the loser's nastyness.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    5. Re:And your evidence is...? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      I'm more on the pessimistic side as to how things will sort themselves out but I agree, the only way to save a faltering industrial revoution from imploding is to apply more science.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    6. Re:And your evidence is...? by imsabbel · · Score: 1

      Thats bull, really.

      The pesimists use the same data than the optimists, with different interpredation:
      Richer people have less kids.

      Just the optimists think everybody will get rich in the future, while the pesimists think that the dropping in resource availability will cause countries to tumble down to a pre-developed state at some time (including those nice 7.x children per woman rates we can still see in some african countries).

      --
      HI O WISE PRINCE. WHT TOOK U SO DAM LONG?
    7. Re:And your evidence is...? by vertinox · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah, peak oil and whatever other resource issues crop up will be a pain in the butt to deal with, but eventually they will be dealt with and the population will keep growing. Even the looming global disaster of fresh water is just a single technology breakthrough away from being an interesting historical footnote.

      For the life of me I can't remember or find the source, but a particular person in the field of sociology had figured out if the current rate of population (which is still exponential) there would be more humans than atoms in 17,000 years which he concluded something has to give at one point between now and then.

      The fact of the matter is that someday humans will have to stop having kids in order to make life comfortable for the living. In fact its arguable that mass death is often followed by times of economic prosperity such as the emergence of the middle class and renaissance after the black death of the middle ages. Now I'm not arguing for humans should die off but rather they should focus on accepting birth control as a societal norm until the individual is ready to actually have a child.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    8. Re:And your evidence is...? by hawkfish · · Score: 4, Informative

      Of course we will call the crash a war and blame the whole thing (including the initial shortage of resources), on the loser's nastyness.
      One of the most interesting (and chilling) sections of Jared Diamond's Collapse was the studies of the Rwandan genocide that documented how the same level of "genocide" occurred in tribally homogeneous areas. One particular area had a single Tutsui, but the death ratio was comparable to the rest of the country. To a large extent, the patterns of murder in this area appeared connected with land disputes caused by overpopulation.
      --
      You will not drink with us, but you would taste our steel? - Walter Matthau, The Pirates
    9. Re:And your evidence is...? by heteromonomer · · Score: 1

      > when a society gets to a certain economic and technological stage, your birth rate declines (and in some first world countries is already below the replacement rate). It's got nothing to do with first world or third world. I'm from the third world. There have been many two children families since the last 3 generations. The negative correlation is with education. Nothing to do with society directly.

    10. Re:And your evidence is...? by slysithesuperspy · · Score: 1

      I agree, before the industrial revolution the UK had a static population of around 6 million because that is all it could sustain. Like in Africa many children died, then they died pretty early anyway.

      I was convinced by some program, years ago, that "overpopulation" was a problem. I think its just scaremongering now (probably not intentionally) because the world would not sustain a population "too large."

    11. Re:And your evidence is...? by mysticgoat · · Score: 1

      I don't know why it is pessimistic to believe population will grow to 9 billion, I'd think that was the "good news" scenario, where mortality declines and resources are used more effectively, the way both trends have gone for the past several hundred years.

      Let's look more closely at the numbers.

      1. Current population: 6.7 billion
      2. Estimate for 2015: 7.2 billion
      3. Difference: 0.5 billion

      That is basically an increase of half a billion children younger than 7 years. I think it is a bit much to expect these youngsters to be providing us with knowledge about how to use our resources more effectively; we will need to accommodate their needs with what we already know. In fact, since they are still growing, we can expect these kids to more than double their drain on resources by 2025.

      A troubling aspect of population projections is that they are measuring by count, and not by biomass. The impact on the environment of a child who weighs 10 kilos is a lot less than the impact that kid will have when he grows up and weighs more than 5 times that. Even if some kind of celestial intervention caused absolute infertility of our species tomorrow, the weight of humanity on Earth's resources would continue to increase for another decade or more.

      The effects of human population growth should be measured in terms of changes in biomass.

    12. Re:And your evidence is...? by Fallingcow · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm always a bit baffled by people who are just *SO* disgusted by China's government-mandated birth control.

      It's something that most other countries on the planet will probably have to do eventually; WTF do they want a country with a huge population and out-of-control birth rates to do? Let people breed as they want, seeking to meet immediate, individual needs, so that they can collectively cause a huge starvation die-off a couple of decades later? Or collectively enforce birth control so the die-off doesn't happen and everyone's standard of living can start going up?

      Don't get me wrong, China's government sucks, but this seems to be the single issue that people always bring up when talking about how repressive they are, and I just don't see it. Given similar circumstances, I'd HOPE our government would do the same thing--we've just not had to deal with that problem yet.

    13. Re:And your evidence is...? by NMerriam · · Score: 1

      While technology has certainly raised the standard of living for those who benefit initially, is there any technology breakthrough that has not eventually (perhaps several generations later) presented even greater problems than the problem that was solved?


      Yeah, pretty much every MAJOR fundamental technology. The wheel, electric lights, refrigeration, the integrated circuit, printing press, internal combustion engine, etc. Sure, every one of those has negative consequences as well, but you'd be pretty hard-pressed to say that any of them have negative consequences that outweigh the positive. The only controversial one on that list would be the internal combustion engine, and there the issue has nothing to do with the technology and everything to do with the use of convenient (but limited and polluting) fuels.

      Cheap and easy desalination would be right up there with irrigation and crop rotation in terms of basic technologies that would enable population growth with minimal negative impact.
      --
      Recursive: Adj. See Recursive.
    14. Re:And your evidence is...? by NMerriam · · Score: 1

      Now I'm not arguing for humans should die off but rather they should focus on accepting birth control as a societal norm until the individual is ready to actually have a child.


      We do that already. I can't think of any first world country where birth control isn't completely normal and accepted by most as a matter purely of convenience and economics. There's no reason to expect that not to be the case with every other country as they catch up, since every country so far has behaved the exact same (economically inevitable) way. Nobody is expecting infinite population growth, but the idea that a permanent global population collapse is only a decade or two away is equally silly.
      --
      Recursive: Adj. See Recursive.
    15. Re:And your evidence is...? by Alegery · · Score: 1

      Your reasoning assumes people always act rationally about sex. Something there is more than sufficient evidence to disprove.

    16. Re:And your evidence is...? by glitch23 · · Score: 1

      Pessimists see a chance of zooming well past that mark, and they add that with all the signs of strained resources (what's the price of oil today?)

      The price of oil right now hardly has anything to do with scarcity. Inventories are at 10 year highs for the U.S. Recently, demand is down about 1% from a year ago for the U.S. and inventories continue to rise, sometimes as much as 3x what analysts predict. Yes, global diesel demand is growing but the last $20-$30 of crude's rise in price is due to assholes who want to buy it for a few hours/days/weeks and sell it w/o ever using it because it is a hedge against the falling value of the U.S. dollar. It's a money maker to them, that's all. Crude is bought/sold in U.S. dollars which is unfortunate at this point in time with the government continuing to devalue the dollar by lowering interest rates (although that's good for people like me who are looking for a house). Why the investors don't buy gold instead is beyond me but the investors prefer to make everyone, including their own families, spend more for oil than what is really required when looking strictly at supply/demand fundamentals.

      --
      this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. -- Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
    17. Re:And your evidence is...? by Prof.Phreak · · Score: 1

      The fact of the matter is that someday humans will have to stop having kids...

      Don't remember who came up with it, but one possible solution may be to set (and progressively increase) the reproductive age. If folks could only have kids after they're 30, there would be less kids, etc., if the population problem persists, increase age to 35, and so on and so forth. This also has a side affect of increasing the average lifespan.

      Not sure how one would enforce this though.

      --

      "If anything can go wrong, it will." - Murphy

    18. Re:And your evidence is...? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      No, you can pack humans into a small space and expect them to behave reasonably normal. The difference between civilization and anarchy is three square meals, people in a modern city such as Tokyo are not competing with each other for food/water since these things are imported into the city in sufficient quantities for all. Cut off the supply for a few days and I assure you, NYC would look a lot like Rawanda with tall buildings.

      BTW: Toward the end of WW2 the Netherlands suffered through the worst famine in Europe since the potato famine of the 1800's.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    19. Re:And your evidence is...? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the book link, I read the third chimp and watched the series on gun and germs. For a different POV on the recurring collapses in Africa Geldof's book is not what I expected from the pompous looking photo on the cover.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    20. Re:And your evidence is...? by laejoh · · Score: 0

      I can't even tell if I'm an optimist or a pessimist.

      Oh, it's easy, just ask yourself:

      Is the planet Earth half full, or is it half empty.

      See?

      :)

      btw: in (Soviet) Russia I think they are used to saying: an optimist is a wrong informed pessimist.

    21. Re:And your evidence is...? by Kelbear · · Score: 1

      It may not be necessary to implement this though. In developed nations where there is plenty of economic opportunity, people tend to take these opportunities instead of putting additional time and money into raising more kids. Some raise fewer kids, concentrating their money into an education to create a productive skilled worker. Some take all their education money and put it into just one so that 2 parents yield 1 child resulting in a reduction in total population.

      Some take all that money and invest it in themselves so that they can take advantage of all the things they want that they wouldn't be able to afford if they had a kid.

      Poor struggling economies don't have many opportunities or luxuries to aspire towards so they default to producing children.

      Since not having children is a little lonely and unfulfilling, I'd be among those who want just one kid to focus my money and attention on. I'll get plenty of sentimental fulfillment and the family goes on.

    22. Re:And your evidence is...? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I'm always a bit baffled by people who are just *SO* disgusted by China's government-mandated birth control.

      Don't get me wrong, China's government sucks, but this seems to be the single issue that people always bring up when talking about how repressive they are, and I just don't see it. Given similar circumstances, I'd HOPE our government would do the same thing--we've just not had to deal with that problem yet.


      I don't even think China's government really "sucks" that bad. Now that Mao is gone and new leaders are in control, these people seem to be extremely smart, and enact policies that really are best for the society as a whole. Not only do they have the overpopulation problem under control with the seemingly harsh birth control policy, but they've made enormous economic progress in the past few decades, far faster than any other country I can think of.

      The price of this progress, however, is individual freedoms to be different. People who want lots of kids are out of luck, as are people who want to follow wacky religions. Of course, dissent of the government is harshly put down too. Is this level of oppression really necessary for the results they have? I honestly don't know, but it does seem to show what you can accomplish when you have a plan to change a society and implement that plan with force. It's not much different from a military if you think about it: militaries are great examples of groups of humans being able to accomplish specific, difficult goals in short timeframes, and this is done with a highly authoritarian power structure where individualism is quashed with force if necessary.

      If China had adopted a Western-style democracy back in the 50s, they would still be a backwards 3rd-world nation right now I think, with severe population problems and probably civil wars. When vital resources are in short supply, people just aren't very good about living together peacefully, and you need an authoritarian government. We in the West haven't usually had that problem because our population has been low and resources abundant.

    23. Re:And your evidence is...? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Nobody is expecting infinite population growth,

      The fundamentalists keep saying we should have this, and that they can all fit in the state of Texas.

      but the idea that a permanent global population collapse is only a decade or two away is equally silly.

      Don't be so sure; you don't know what unpredictable calamity might happen. I'm sure the people in 1918 weren't expecting a gigantic flu pandemic to kill tens of millions. With today's much greater population densities and much increased travel, a new "superflu" or something could get around and kill a billion or so before something could be done about it.

    24. Re:And your evidence is...? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Don't remember who came up with it, but one possible solution may be to set (and progressively increase) the reproductive age. If folks could only have kids after they're 30, there would be less kids, etc., if the population problem persists, increase age to 35, and so on and so forth. This also has a side affect of increasing the average lifespan.

      It'd also have the side effect of creating a population with a lot of genetic diseases and other problems (along with decreasing the average lifespan). Kids are better off if their mother is young, like 15-20. Remember, a woman develops all the eggs she's ever going to have while she's still an infant, so if a woman has a kid when she's 45, she's using a 45-year-old egg to do so, not a newly-generated egg. The chances for mutation are much higher then.

      Ideally, women should be having 1 or 2 kids when they're teenagers, and then giving them to older (40-60 y.o.) women to raise. Unfortunately, women for some reason seem to prefer raising their own children (seen with stupid cases where teenage mothers insist it's better for them to drop out of school, raise their kid(s), and mooch off their families instead of giving them up for adoption so they can finish school and get a real job).

    25. Re:And your evidence is...? by NMerriam · · Score: 1

      note I did say *permanent* global population collapse -- of course you never know what disasters will crop up next week, but eventually even a new plague or full-scale nuclear war would be overcome. The notion that the "optimists" are pushing is that we're so close to our resource caps right now that it would be literally impossible with any conceivable technology or resource management to feed and clothe another one or two billion people, that there's simply no way that many could exist on Earth at once. But we heard the same kinds of alarm when the population was half of what it is today, and we still don't have even the beginnings of a global shortage of food or living space (what we do have, unfortunately, is a lot of economic issues that make food a problem in specific areas).

      --
      Recursive: Adj. See Recursive.
  5. Ah, well, this one's easy. by jd · · Score: 0

    Only Cowboy Neil's alive. He's imagining the rest of us.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  6. One way to be sure.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Nuke from orbit.

  7. Don't know about 2050, but in 2063.. by scsirob · · Score: 3, Funny

    In 2063 there will be 30 billion.. All Borg. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Trek:_First_Contact

    --
    To Terminate, or not to Terminate, that's the question - SCSIROB
    1. Re:Don't know about 2050, but in 2063.. by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 1

      More precisely there will be 15 billion Republiborgs and 15 billion Demoborgs.
      You may think voting is futile, but you wouldn't want the wrong borg to get in would you?

    2. Re:Don't know about 2050, but in 2063.. by tighr · · Score: 1

      In 2063 there will be 30 billion.. All Borg. I haven't seen that film in quite some time, but I distinctly recall that the population of Earth was given as "9 billion, all Borg". However, the 9 billion number referred to the 24th Century Earth, which had been completely converted to Borg in the intervening 3 centuries (The Enterprise had been caught in some sort of temporal "wake" that allowed them to see the 24th Century Earth without their own histories being erased as they traveled to the past). It can be assumed that the reason Earth only has 9 billion in the 24th Century is due to colonization, such as the moon colonies that Riker mentions.

      Coincidentally, the number 9 billion was mentioned here in the comments as an equilibrium point in Earth population. Unrelated, but interesting nonetheless.
  8. Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 4, Interesting
    What few people realize, is that the earth can support more people than what is commonly called the "carrying capacity" - temporarily.

    Of course when you look at some examples:

    Easter islands, where the polynesians peaked at about 10000 inhabitants before falling to about 2000 because they chopped down all trees. (no more boats -> no more fishing, no more houses -> starvation, disease)

    Haiti, where the population has stripped their half of the island almost literally bare (almost the complete population survives on food-aid, now you can imagine what happens when the food-aid stops.)

    China, where groundwater continues to fall and many areas are already dry.

    Great Britain, which is extremely densely populated, has to import about half of it's food and is stupid enough to let half a million immigrants in every year.

    It becomes clear that the world just can't go on like that forever. It probably can't even go on like that for more than a couple of years. The green revolution has been made possible by oil and gas and both are getting much more expensive each and every year now.

    And no, it's not a "global problem" like the one-worlders want us to believe. Some countries will be able to manage well (like Iceland which with almost zero immigration and geothermal energy plants is well prepared), some will be average (like France which can keep the lights up with nuclear power, but has a huge 3rd-world immigration problem on the other hand or Japan which is overpopulated but may solve that problem with low birthrates and not mass-famine), some will turn into hell-holes (like England which has an even bigger trade deficit than the USA per capita and cannot feed it's population even now while oil and gas is still cheap and there is still some coming from the North Sea oilfields. On top of that immigration has transformed a once cohesive population into a society that with a huge potential for civil strife or even civil war, London is already one of the most crime-ridden cities in the world.) or continue to be hell-holes (like most of the 3rd world)

    I would be very surprised if there will be more than 3 billion people living in 2050.

    Of course the human species will carry on, future historians will probably think of the 20th century as some crazy period full of socialist (in the late 20th/early 21st-century USA usually called "liberal") experiments.

    1. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by kestasjk · · Score: 1

      Well at least now we know.

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    2. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by timmarhy · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      all of these problems would have occurred 2 decades ago if they were a real problem. we aren't running out of oil anytime soon inspsite of what the rabid global warming nutters want you to think. most of the price rises are due to artificial restrictions on supply.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    3. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 3, Informative
      all of these problems would have occurred 2 decades ago if they were a real problem.

      Maybe the Polynesian who chopped down the last tree on easter island had exactly the same thoughts? Who knows?

      First of all, many of these problems DID already occur, the easter island die-off occoured before the island was descouvered by Europeans, probably somewhen around 1500 AD.

      Second, many problems occured (like Haiti's complete lack of forest despite being a tropical half-island) but are merely covered up. (The do-gooders are sending food aid to Haiti to make sure the population continues to breed like crazy)

      Third, problems occur when they occur. To say they never occur because they didn't occur 2 decades ago is just plain nonsense.

      we aren't running out of oil anytime soon

      True, but the oil will be harder to get, more expensive to extract and there will be less of it.

      inspsite of what the rabid global warming nutters want you to think.

      Global warming has nothing to do with the end of cheap oil.

      most of the price rises are due to artificial restrictions on supply.

      It's true that the oil industry has shown a general lack of interest in building new refineries in the last years. (and that was a problem during Katrina because refinery capacity was not enough)

      However the reason for that is that the oil industry knows very well that oil and gas will peak (or already has peaked) and it doesn't make any sense to build a refinery which needs 10 years to pay itself when there won't be any fuel for it after 5 years. (Not because we are "running out of oil" but because the old, refineries can manage the slowly declining supply)

    4. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by seyyah · · Score: 5, Insightful

      ... let half a million immigrants in every year ...

      ... a huge 3rd-world immigration problem ...

      ... immigration has transformed a once cohesive population ...

      ... Iceland with almost zero immigration ... is well prepared ...

      So, Mr. Huntington, what do you think is the world's greatest problem today?
    5. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by YU5333021 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Eliot Spitzer? Is that you?

      The topic at hand here is GLOBAL population, not the British immigration policy. I can't figure out if if you are a British or an American troll, you seem to fit both categories well. Let's assume you could be either...

      Are the midwestern youngsters moving to NYC seeking career opportunities otherwise unavailable in their hometowns part of your evil immigration problem, or is it only the Mexicans? Or is it the Canadians moving to London vs. all the Polish people who moved there in the last few years?

      ...I really wanted to write counterpoints to everything you said, but it's a total waste of breath.

      You threw in a "liberal" or socialist or whatever cheap-shot crap at the end of your post, and since the discussion at hand is about uncertainty of future population estimates, I have one question for you: what is the "liberal" stand on abortion?

      To be more crass, go fuck yourself because no-one else will, (thus not contributing to the solution of overpopulation cause).

      Also fuck everyone who moded the parent insightful. It's hate speech at best...

    6. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by timmarhy · · Score: 0, Flamebait
      As far as i was aware no one really knows why easter island was abandoned? so it's not a great analogy to use.

      "Third, problems occur when they occur. To say they never occur because they didn't occur 2 decades ago is just plain nonsense."

      no it's nonsense to claim something which has been the status quo for decades (england importing most of it's food) is suddenly going to become a major problem for no reason.

      "Global warming has nothing to do with the end of cheap oil"

      HA! not if the cult and it's carbon credits insanity is implemented. The idea that oil is going to dry up in 5 years is just nonsense. I hear crap like this all the time (i work in the resources industry) and i just shake my head and laugh.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    7. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by chrispalasz · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I would be very surprised if there will be more than 3 billion people living in 2050.

      That's quite an exaggeration. I would be surprised if there will be less than 8 billion. After doing extensive world traveling in 2007, I think non-travelers forget exactly how absolutely huge the earth is. Of course there will be some individual nations (like China, to name just one) that start to give us a window into what happens to an overpopulated land area, but I don't believe it will become a global problem before it's too late.

      And it doesn't matter what kind of government you have. China is having ground water problems. They're currently working on a huge river project to redirect one of their major rivers to go north. They're cutting through mountains to make it happen. http://www.icivilengineer.com/Big_Project_Watch/China_River_Diversion/

      In a socialist government, they can say, "hmmm, this is a problem. Everyone stop what you're doing and fix it." Much like what Brazil did to restructure their use of fuel. Now they're using E10, and now they're oil independent.

      In a capitalist government, can't predict when it would happen... but SOME day people will say, "WAIT A SECOND! People don't LIKE the effects of overpopulation! If we think of a way to solve that... I bet we could make some money!"

      In any case, predictions that there will be a global problem anywhere near 2050 are entirely premature; and people that don't think mankind will find a way to survive (if survival is threatened) are naive.

    8. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by IamTheRealMike · · Score: 5, Informative

      What few people realize, is that the earth can support more people than what is commonly called the "carrying capacity" - temporarily.

      You state that as fact, but as far as I know the concept of "carrying capacity" is not defined or even studied. Whilst it makes intuitive sense that there must be some limit, it also makes sense that this limit would itself be fluid - changing with the march of technology and changes in living standards. I've never seen anybody calculate a carrying capacity for 21st century Earth, especially not scientifically. People who use the term invariably assume it must be lower than our current population - how much lower is usually pulled out of thin air.

      It becomes clear that the world just can't go on like that forever. It probably can't even go on like that for more than a couple of years. The green revolution has been made possible by oil and gas and both are getting much more expensive each and every year now.

      Your list of societies is disingenous - you list a primitive, fully collapsed society like Easter Island right alongside Great Britain, which last time I lived there imported half its food because you can't grow strawberries there year round, not because it was about to collapse. Britain could feed itself tomorrow simply by converting some of its farming capacity from meat production to cereal production.

      Also, the green revolution was triggered mostly by the development of nitrogen fertilisers, weed killers and crop varieties that could handle being treated with them. Although we use hydrogen from natural gas to make nitrogen fertilisers today, you can produce it using electrolysis without problem. And whilst it's true that today farm machinery is mostly gasoline powered, that's something independent of the green revolution. If you haven't already read it, I suggest checking out Stanifords Food to 2050 for a data-based analysis of whether the green revolution can be sustained.

      And no, it's not a "global problem" like the one-worlders want us to believe. Some countries will be able to manage well (like Iceland which with almost zero immigration and geothermal energy plants is well prepared)

      Only a small proportion of Icelands power comes from geothermal. Most of it is hydro. Iceland has much bigger problems than electricity anyway - there's basically nothing there, and whilst it has energy in abundance the economy is mostly based on industrial fishing. Once the fish stocks are exhausted, there'll be little left to sustain it.

      I would be very surprised if there will be more than 3 billion people living in 2050.

      Ah ha, I knew it. As soon as I read the term "carrying capacity" I was waiting for the ass-pulled number. Why 3 billion? Why not 2, or 4? Or 100 million? I don't see any particular constraints on slow population growth - it's been boringly linear for most of the 20th century in most developed countries, and in large parts of Europe is going to head sharply downwards soon due to natural demographic trends anyway. Whilst places like Africa or Chian might get miserable, Africa is already miserable and there's no obvious reason why in the long term China would see different population trends from other developed countries.

    9. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Of course the human species will carry on, future historians will probably think of the 20th century as some crazy period full of socialist (in the late 20th/early 21st-century USA usually called "liberal") experiments."

      I think they'll rather see the idiotic idea of basing a society on greed and how primitive all human beings of the era were. I'm sure they'll see simplicity and responsible forward looking cultures as geniuses and capitalists, communists, et al, as all fucking crazy.

    10. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by renoX · · Score: 1

      >What few people realize, is that the earth can support more people than what is commonly called the "carrying capacity" - temporarily.

      Uh? Why do you claim that few people realize this?
      It's quite obvious, except that of course the "carrying capacity" depends a lot on the technology and the way of living of the people..

      [cut]
      >some will be average (like France which can keep the lights up with nuclear power, but has a huge 3rd-world immigration problem on the other hand

      This show quite well your bias: the 'immigration problem' in France is not a huge problem, it is a problem mainly because our society isn't well adaptated for this, not because there is a ressource issue: we have lots of (unused) fields to grow food..

    11. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by arpad1 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah, Easter Island, a geographically isolated, stone-age culture with a total population that would give it "small town" status today has a lot to teach us about the dangers that face a globe-spanning economy with resources the Easter Islander's would dismiss as fantasies and technologies they'd scarcely understand.

      The rest of the post consists of either misrepresentation of the current situation as in your use of England as an example of the dangers of overpopulation or clear repudiation of the beliefs of Malthusian fear-mongers as in China which is economically in vastly better shape then it was when its population was significantly less then it is now.

      It becomes clear that the world just can't go on like that forever.

      On the basis of the examples you offer, it's quite clear that the world can go on like this forever since your examples are either a) inapplicable or b) unsupportive of your claim.

      In fact, history does provide a guide to the way the future's likely to unfold. When incomes rise to a certain level the population increase grinds to a halt.

      All the wealthier nations, once you subtract the population additions made by recent immigrants, have either very low population growth or a shrinking population. Japan's robotic technology expenditures are driven by a combination of their aging (shrinking) population and a refusal to allow immigration. Who's going to take care of Japan's rapidly increasing geezer population? The U.S.'s population increase is driven by immigration.

      If you look at the trends in global per capita income the conclusion to be drawn is that the global population increase will start slowing down within twenty years and top out about 2050 with global population decline to follow. I know that's the sort of thought to fill the zero-population racists hearts with glee but they'll have about as much to do with it as a rooster's crowing does with the rising of the sun.

      Of course the human species will carry on, future historians will probably think of the 20th century as some crazy period full of socialist (in the late 20th/early 21st-century USA usually called "liberal") experiments.

      Not just historians and there's no need to wait till the future. You can offer examples to the contrary but I'm unaware of any "socialist experiment" that can be deemed a success. With utter uniformity socialism's been either a failure or a disastrous failure.

      --
      Minutus cantorum, minutus balorum, minutus carborata descendum pantorum.
    12. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by gardyloo · · Score: 4, Informative

      The idea that oil is going to dry up in 5 years is just nonsense. I hear crap like this all the time (i work in the resources industry) and i just shake my head and laugh. However, the idea that oil is going to sharply decline in net production (because of the "easy" oil being tapped out), while becoming quite a bit more expensive as a consequence, is not nonsense.
            I have done research (serious, major oil-company-funded research, so you know where the money lies) on some new ways to find, extract, and process oil. The oil companies are VERY interested, mainly because the future looks pretty bleak. The very fact that Shell is considering as "promising" their MASSIVE in-ground processing, sandwiched between two groundwater reservoirs in the lamosite Green River formation in Colorado and Utah should tell you something about desperation.
    13. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You make rather bold assertions without any supporting evidence. I'm not going to do the work for you but;

      * 'carrying capacity' is studied as part of economics, social geography, anthropology etc.
      * The current GB population cannot be sustained even if everyone could live on grass.
      * Immigration is a large driver of population increase, even if the local birth rates fall.
      * The UK's birth rates are actually increasing so where's your trend there?
      * The largest contributor to Iceland's power is geothermal (about half).

    14. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Epistax · · Score: 1

      Wow. You pwned him.

      I tip my hat to you.

    15. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by vbraga · · Score: 1

      In a socialist government, they can say, "hmmm, this is a problem. Everyone stop what you're doing and fix it." Much like what Brazil did to restructure their use of fuel. Now they're using E10, and now they're oil independent. Brazil puts alcohol on fuel to subsidize cane farmers. That's the only real motive. Alcohol contents increases when they need more money. Simple as that. And Brazil is not "oil independent". Brazil needs a lot of foreign resources for the catalytic cracking process.

      Yes, I'm Brazilian.

      If you done extensive world traveling you already now what are the first symptoms of overpopulation. On most Latin America you're going to find the slums, 'favelas' in Portuguese. When population boomed on 50 - 70, urban infrastructure almost crashed on most cities. And still today is a major PITA to live around those cities. In Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, Brazil major cities, crime rate sky rocket when you go the tiny border between the rich and poor areas. You're really safe if inside of one of those rich zones. I would never exchange Ipanema, Rio nicest neighborhood in my humble opinion, for most of the "developed" world: quality of life is way better here.

      That's what's going to happen and aggravate with overpopulation. A higher contrast between rich and poor and all the trouble this causes. I don't really believe in Malthusian mass famines or things like that. But more slums, more violence - more hate crimes: people don't like to see their rich neighbor when they only have money for food. And, sadly, I don't believe there's a solution for this. Close your curtains and have a whiskey, because the world is going to be really fucked up in a somewhat close future.
      --
      English is not my first language. Corrections and suggestions are welcome.
    16. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Teun · · Score: 1

      Hehe, it's pretty obvious that man lacks self confidence and is suffering from selectively reading the well know British tabloids.

      Plus the United Kingdom is only #51 on the list of population densities, for example The Netherlands is running one of the healthiest European economies from spot #25.
      South Korea is in place #21 and doing extremely well.

      Besides, the UK being an Island Nation seriously needs to stock up it's limited gene pool :)

      --
      "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
    17. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You make rather bold assertions without any supporting evidence.

      [moronic unsupported assertions deleted]

      "Economically harnessable electricity from hydro resources is estimated at about 30,000 GWh per year."
      "In 2003 the total installed geothermal electric power was 200 MW and the production around 1,420 GWh."

      Google, mutherfucker, do you use it?

    18. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One correction: Iceland and it's industrial fishing business is sustainable. They introduced a 200 mile exclusion zone then started forcibly protecting and managing it (the "Cod Wars"). The result is a sustainable business. See http://www.iceland.is/economy-and-industry/fisheries//nr/31.

      It also pretty much describes why we import so much cod from Iceland and why British waters are overfished. The CAP has its faults but don't think it's only those pesky Spaniards fault. Brits have been overfishing our waters for the last century. With modern boats we can now fish in deep water all year round instead of just coastal limits and shallow water that we were limited to a century ago. Sorry, don't have those figures to hand.

    19. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by STrinity · · Score: 2, Funny

      Whilst it makes intuitive sense that there must be some limit, it also makes sense that this limit would itself be fluid -
      Actually, no. The ultimate bottleneck for human population growth is the amount of available phosphorous. There are theoretical work-arounds for every other limiting factor, but the phosphorous limit would require mass-scale transmutation of matter to get past. Assuming we strip mine the entire solar system for phosphorous, the upper bounds for the human population on Earth is 10e22.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    20. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 1
      As far as i was aware no one really knows why easter island was abandoned?

      It wasn't abandoned. It just lost most of it's carrying capacity (and hence population).

      no it's nonsense to claim something which has been the status quo for decades (england importing most of it's food) is suddenly going to become a major problem for no reason.

      England destroying it's industry (outsourcing) and using up it's coal (they even have import most of their coal now) plus higher and rising oil prices are very good reasons.

      The idea that oil is going to dry up in 5 years is just nonsense.

      Please read it again:

      "Global warming has nothing to do with the end of cheap oil"

      Of course we won't run out of oil (I alread said so, didn't you get that?) but it will be expensive. With one barrel hitting 110 dollars it's already debatable wether we still have cheap oil or not.

    21. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 1
      The UK includes Scotland which is pretty poor from a farming-POV. England (which is not the same as the UK, FYI) is very densely populated and isn't prime farming country either (though better than Scotland).

      Also, England has a horrible trade deficit in almost everything. Essentially England exports just printed paper (pound-notes, stocks, etc) and gets indebted more and more. Even without Peak Oil, England could not function like that forever.

      You can try to insult me if you like ("lacks self confidence", oh my), I don't really care. People like you might be able to silence all opposition, but you won't be able to change the laws of nature.

      England will become a very unfriendly place in a couple of years, (and if you look at the crime statistics that's not merely a forecast, it's a continued process that began 2 decades ago) no amount of lies and politically correct nonsense can change that.

    22. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Zedekiah · · Score: 1

      His comment was perfectly sound; even taking just England, it still would only make 26th, at 388.7/km. Whatever the daily mail tells you, the country is not populated beyond manageable standards. The problem is with the management.

      To ease your imagined problem, I'll be leaving as soon as possible, I think, so you idiots can enjoy your BNP government.

      --
      What I wouldn't do for the ability to mod "-1, Plain Wrong"
    23. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 1
      His comment was perfectly sound; even taking just England, it still would only make 26th, at 388.7/km. Whatever the daily mail tells you, the country is not populated beyond manageable standards.

      No, that comment was not sound, but nonsense. Wether a country is overpopulated or not doesn't depend which place it scores in the ranking, it depends wether it can support it's inhabitants. Greenland would be overpopulated with 10 people/km, some highly productive farmlands may support over 500/km.

      Now, with that clarified, I repeat: England cannot support it's population and without tangible exports, it can also not trade in other goods for food. (Japan can do that, England could do that 100 years ago when it was a manufacturing powerhouse like Japan is today, but those times are long gone)

      The problem is with the management.

      The management is horrible, but even the best management can't change the laws of nature. The mistakes are already made a long time ago.

      To ease your imagined problem, I'll be leaving as soon as possible

      If it's imaginary and England is such a great place, why are you leaving? A lot of Britons are leaving, I wonder why. Even the Scots want to leave the UK...

      so you idiots can enjoy your BNP government.

      I'm not English, I'm not even near any Anglophone country (thank god). Anyway, I don't think any government will be able to save England from serious ressource shortages, even if immigration is stopped immediately. England could have made it with wise politics in the last 30 years or so. Of course not only about immigration but also not letting the railway-system decay and prepare maybe just a little bit. But instead your politicians decided to squander it all as fast as they could.

      Better hurry, who knows how long other countries will take in pompous hypocrites like you. I mean if diversity isn't great, why aren't you staying? Why are you fleeing from a "imagined problem"? Doesn't you get headaches from that much doublethink?

    24. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 1
      You state that as fact, but as far as I know the concept of "carrying capacity" is not defined or even studied. Whilst it makes intuitive sense that there must be some limit, it also makes sense that this limit would itself be fluid - changing with the march of technology and changes in living standards. I've never seen anybody calculate a carrying capacity for 21st century Earth, especially not scientifically. People who use the term invariably assume it must be lower than our current population - how much lower is usually pulled out of thin air.

      Carrying capacity has been studied by a lot of people and while it is true that you cannot exactly calculate it's value, you can estimate it.

      Actually you don't need to be a rocket scientist to do that, shortages and price hick p> Ah ha, I knew it. As soon as I read the term "carrying capacity" I was waiting for the ass-pulled number. Why 3 billion? Why not 2, or 4? Or 100 million?

      Earth had 1 billion during the industrial revolution and about 2 billion at the beginning of the green revolution. Many estimate the carrying capacity to be about 1 billion because that's what it was before the industrial revolution and coal-burning really took off. I'm just a bit more optimistic because I figure that efficiency (modern houses need a LOT less heating than those 200 years ago, tracktors running on plant oil may also be more efficient than horses) and technology can sqeeze a lot more out of the Earth. But yes, it's of course only an estimate, but I'm actually on the optimistic side within the group of people who seriously thought about it.

    25. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 1
      Of course the human species will carry on, future historians will probably think of the 20th century as some crazy period full of socialist (in the late 20th/early 21st-century USA usually called "liberal") experiments.

      Not just historians and there's no need to wait till the future. You can offer examples to the contrary but I'm unaware of any "socialist experiment" that can be deemed a success. With utter uniformity socialism's been either a failure or a disastrous failure.

      Did you even understand what I wrote?

      To ask somebody who calls the various socialist experiments a "crazy period" for socialist success stories is rather ... strange.

    26. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by bar-agent · · Score: 1

      The ultimate bottleneck for human population growth is the amount of available phosphorous. There are theoretical work-arounds for every other limiting factor, but the phosphorous limit would require mass-scale transmutation of matter to get past.

      An article in the Australian says we'll see shortages by 2040.

      Wikipedia says we'll run out in about 345 years at current consumption rates (which means we'll actually run out sooner).

      --
      i'd hit it so hard, if you pulled me out you'd be the king of britain [bash.org]
    27. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Zedekiah · · Score: 1

      You misunderstood my reasons for wanting to leave. It is the growing sympathy for nationalists (and, in extremes, fascists such as the BNP) that I'm quite so afraid of. That is why I wish to leave, and no other reason. If it were just the economy, I would stay. If society collapsed in on itself, I would stay, carfully forging my new empire out of the dregs of collapsed civilisation [/evil]
      The reason I'm leaving, I repeat, is because these guys scare the hell out of me.
      You argue that Britain is beyond it's point of no return, as far as exports and such go. I'm in no position to dispute this, but it is still moot in regards to immigration being a cause of trouble in britain, any more than being born here.
      I do not support britain, I do not even LIKE britain (as you assert I must do, because I state one problem is imagined? we call that a false dichotomy). And don't place the burden of "my" politicians on me, I didn't vote for any of them. Anyway, I'm fully aware doublethink doubleplusbad.

      --
      What I wouldn't do for the ability to mod "-1, Plain Wrong"
    28. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by SlowMovingTarget · · Score: 1

      "Get your daily phosphorous with Soylent Green!"

    29. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't need to go to Iceland to see what 1000 years of inbreeding can do, I can look at Bjork for that.

    30. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Much of Iceland uses geothermal energy for heating *directly* without being converted to electricity first so the > 50% figure is correct. Sadly, using abusive language and blindly quoting search engine output doesn't make you right but you are right at home on Slashdot!

    31. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by will_die · · Score: 1

      According to the majority of economic scientists the reason for the high price of oil is speculation. With the amount of oil being pumped, OPEC and others refusing to increase production; the US refusing to use thier own resources, the cost should be in the $70-$80 range.
      Currently the amount of processed fuel is at a 15 year high and oil usage is down from last year(high prices).
      However you have a worldwide housing market, it is not just the US it is various countries in Europe and Asian who are in the same trouble you hear about in the US. The people, companies and investment funds who would be investing in real estate are moving thier millions to oil and gold.

    32. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by StikyPad · · Score: 1

      Xenophobia.

    33. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 1
      According to the majority of economic scientists the reason for the high price of oil is speculation.

      The majority of "economic scientists" also told the world proudly that a "new economy" has arrived and that conservative economic laws just don't apply. No, I'm not talking about the 1990's, I'm talking about the 1920's.

      With the amount of oil being pumped, OPEC and others refusing to increase production; the US refusing to use thier own resources

      The US refusing to use their own ressources? All US-oilfields are pumping at maximum capacity ever since they peaked in 1970/71.

      OPEC is also pumping whatever they can. Recently Kuwait had to admit that their biggest oilfield (which holds more than half their oil) is beyound peak and declining. Of course you probably think they are just mean and want to "refuse to increase production", but sooner or later that just had to happen. Over 60% of Saudi-Arabia's oil production comes from just one oilfield ("Ghawar") and they started pumping in 1951 which means they are already pumping for 57 years. When that single field peaks and declines, there is nothing nowhere which can make up that loss. That field alone produces over 6% of the global oil supply. Just a comparison: The oil crisis of 1973 which caused the prices to skyrock from 2-3 dollars/barrel to over 20 was caused by a reduction of just 3% in oil production.

      the cost should be in the $70-$80 range.

      Just 5 years ago, it was assumed that about 23 to 25 dollars is the "fair" price of oil. How fast times change, heh?

      Currently the amount of processed fuel is at a 15 year high

      I wonder what is so difficult to understand about a peak. OF COURSE we are at an (not just 15-year but) all time high in almost parameters about oil. THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT. It just won't be possible to get much higher and those parameters will start to decline, either in a couple of years or they already have.

    34. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by rseuhs · · Score: 1
      Wait, just if I get that right: You are afraid that your politicians (which you didn't vote for) lose their power, actually even so afraid that you want to leave.

      Wow, so many contradictions at once, I'm overwhelmed.

      I mean, if you are so afraid of your politians losing power, why don't you vote for them? Doesn't make much sense to me.

      Also you don't like Britain, yet you say you would stay even if it would mean poverty and hardship if it weren't for political troubles.

    35. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Zedekiah · · Score: 1

      Because I wasn't old enough to vote, you insensitive clod. And I'm not afraid of them loosing their power, I'm afraid of the people GAINING power. Really, the english language isn't so hard to understand if you try.

      --
      What I wouldn't do for the ability to mod "-1, Plain Wrong"
    36. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      With the amount of oil being pumped, OPEC and others refusing to increase production; the US refusing to use thier own resources

      The US refusing to use their own ressources? All US-oilfields are pumping at maximum capacity ever since they peaked in 1970/71.


      He's a neocon wacko. They have a conspiracy theory that says the US sits on enormous quantities of easily-drillable oil, enough that we would never need to import it from the mideast again, but that drilling at these sites isn't allowed because of "environmentalist wackos". Their case-in-point is ANWAR, which, from what I've read, really doesn't have that much oil in it.

    37. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by bdjacobson · · Score: 1

      And, the more expensive it becomes, the less of a problem it is, because there is more incentive to use other means to transport yourself.

      If we hit $10/gallon for gas I guarantee you Toyota will be dumping millions into supercapacitor research. We've got enough coal for 200 years. Or we can go nuclear if you're the green type.

      Not to mention, have you heard of Suncor? It's as estimated there is as much oil as there ever was in the middle east in Canadian beaches, from the sand; and this company developed the means to refine it.

      Situation is only bleak to those who don't have the full picture.

    38. Re:Carrying capacity overshoot by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I think they'll rather see the idiotic idea of basing a society on greed and how primitive all human beings of the era were. I'm sure they'll see simplicity and responsible forward looking cultures as geniuses and capitalists, communists, et al, as all fucking crazy.

      Um, exactly which "simple and responsible forward looking cultures" are you referring to?

      The societies which aren't based on greed, namely communist ones, don't seem to work very well in practice. Yeah, it sucks that people are greedy, but that's a natural human trait. Try to make a society that's not based on greed, where people get hand-outs instead of being forced to work if they want to survive, and suddenly lots of people take advantage of that, refusing to work and demanding hand-outs.

      How you're going to get past this and move to a Star-Trek style socialist utopia where people aren't lazy and do interesting things merely because they want to, and not because they need to in order to survive, I have no idea. I guess if you somehow came up with the technology and energy so that everyone could live comfortable lives even if they didn't feel like working at all, and those who did work didn't have to exert any significant time or energy to support those who didn't, it'd be ok. But as it is, we don't have the resources available on this planet to make that happen; if lots of people don't contribute, lots of other people will have to make up for that. I don't know about you, but I have no interest in spending 14 or more hours a day doing something I don't like just so other people can sit around and watch TV.

  9. They plan to kill of 80% of us by CranberryKing · · Score: 1, Interesting

    probably in the next 2-3 years. I'm serious. Look at the Global 2000 plan or read the Georgia Guidestones if you don't believe. Alternative 3? Maybe.. I'm not going to provide the links. You'll have to do some actual research.

    If you don't have an Infragard membership or a place secured in [the real] Iron Mountain, you are like me and are fukced.

    Why is FEMA building all these prisons that remain empty? When you drive down the street, look at the backs of the signs on the opposite side. Do you see all the stickers? Those are tactical markers. Not in any language since they are designed for UN (Chinese? Russian? blankaznian?) troops to direct them to the local resources. Just start looking.

    Still the Sarah Connor Chronicles is entertaining. Don't pay attention to the banks beginning to crumble. The Visa check card is here so why use cash?

    1. Re:They plan to kill of 80% of us by Kelz · · Score: 1

      It must be nice to know what the future holds. I'm curious how your internet connection is in your concrete/steel bunker 100 meters below the earth.

    2. Re:They plan to kill of 80% of us by downix · · Score: 1

      I took your bait and read up on those. Hate to tell you guy, but the level of complicity for either plan to work borders on ludicrus. You would literally need billions of people in on the conspiracy for it to work, and as the end target is 2 billion, well guess what, the math does not add up. Add in that the only way for three people to keep a secret is for two to be dead, well, sorry dude, doesn't work.

      But go on believing the paranoia kool-aid. I'd rather deal with real problems rather than ghosts and jumping at shadows.

      --
      Karma Whoring for Fun and Profit.
    3. Re:They plan to kill of 80% of us by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

      The part the nutty conspiracy theorists always seem to miss is motivation.

      Why exactly would "the ruling elite" do this, again?

  10. The "It's 2008" Troll by HeX314 · · Score: 0, Troll

    "we don't even have a good grasp on how many people are alive in 2007." I have an answer: none. It's 2008. There needs to be a (-1; Nitpicky).

  11. 666 x 10^7 people after Good Friday March 21 2008 by mashiyach · · Score: 1
    To be more precise about a week after according the governmental POPClock

    Anyone knows about the actual accuracy of the clock?
    Mashiyach

    PS: This is about the time people claim that this world, or at least this run, will end or change (parameter change?) significantly.

  12. What is certain - change will happen by Memroid · · Score: 1

    As population continues to increase, the hectares of land devoted per person for food production will continue to shrink. This will mean that traditional diets will need to change - meat requires a lot of land to produce, and wastes a lot of energy in its production. People will have to eat lower in the food chain to prevent as much energy loss as possible. Limits to genetic/Green Revolution style crop improvements will be hit. Eventually humanity will reach its carrying capacity (no more resources available to allocate to additional survival) on earth. This actual limit is unknown, but suffice to say that we will probably expand greatly upwards, into towering buildings. There probably won't be much in regards to a 'back yard' existing on soil. Earth could possibly be described as a giant feedlot for humans. Climate changes could cause human migrations which we are not prepared for - even more so with modern infrastructure. Furthermore, continued population growth will lead to reduced agricultural and wildlife biodiversity, further use of pesticides to sustain the population for as long as possible, and numerous water-related issues.

    From the Neo-Malthusianism perspective there is a limit to the amount of resources available, and that population can increase faster than food production can increase. From the opposite perspective (Cornucopian), the supply of resources is infinite. We can exploit outer-space, or use as resources things we can't imagine now.

    Which viewpoint is humanity's future? You decide.

    1. Re:What is certain - change will happen by rcastro0 · · Score: 1

      As population continues to increase, the hectares of land devoted per person for food production will continue to shrink.

      Food, or land for growing it, will not be the upper bound for population. Think about the ocean, think about the underground and vegetation growing under lamps. Using the "harder to use" or less hospitable food growing areas will take a lot of work or, more precisely, energy. Energy sources could provide a boundary, but from the atom or from the sun we should have plenty of energy. Infinte? No, of course. But large enough to be roughly equivalent to infinite.

      Also, as you indicated, there are different ways to feed a person, Meat being less environmently efficient. But the ultimate efficiency comes from not eating. I mean, it is possible to survive having nutrients directly delivered to the blood. This is even more efficient than a fully veggie diet. Personally I think it abominable. But I am sure once humanity reaches a food limit, if we ever do, then choosing between "feeding without eating" and "dying" will be the fork on the road.

      Me, I think the the size of the future population will be much more determined by culture, or the collective state of mind, as when people stop being interested in having kids. Though as a Darwinist I think the ones interested in having kids will tend to outbreed the others (logically) and dominate, so we should not expect population to dwindle because "nobody cares".

      --
      Quem a paca cara compra, paca cara pagará.
    2. Re:What is certain - change will happen by vertinox · · Score: 1

      his will mean that traditional diets will need to change - meat requires a lot of land to produce, and wastes a lot of energy in its production.

      Why not grow meat in vats? Its already being done in experiments and if you don't mind the thought of it, it will generally taste just as good as the real thing.

      The problem is that most people never think out of the box on these issues because they see problems as something that can only be solved with today's technology and not realize that in 5 years things will be completely different.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    3. Re:What is certain - change will happen by u38cg · · Score: 1

      Yes, but an important issue to be aware of is that global agricultural production is a fraction of capacity. This is largely down to first world subsidies meaning that the rest of the world has not had much incentive to move from subsistence farming to cash crops. Also, population growth stalls at a given level of development, because it is no longer economically necessary to have children; these factors combined mean that the future is not quite as bleak or scary as it is commonly painted.

      --
      [FUCK BETA]
  13. this problem is actually pretty easy to solve. by killjoe · · Score: 1

    the answer is simple.

    Stop brining people back from the dead.

    When somebody dies don't strap electrodes on them and shock them back to life. When somebody dies don't give them mouth to mouth and bring them back to life.

    Leave the dead alone.

    Now I know this will be difficult if your child has died from drowning or your grandpa died from a heart attack but we as a society must accept that people are going to die eventually. No matter how many times you bring them back to life they are going to die anyway.

    Maybe new stigmas can be attached to people raised from the dead. Maybe if people started shunning the living dead and called them zombies and such the relatives would refuse to bring dead people back to life.

    --
    evil is as evil does
    1. Re:this problem is actually pretty easy to solve. by Rakshasa+Taisab · · Score: 1

      Perhaps not everyone shares your definition of death, which is why many will see your post as advocating a form of murder.

      What if that person is hanging off the edge of a cliff, sure to lose his grip at any moment. Are you going to pull him back from the dead?

      --
      - These characters were randomly selected.
    2. Re:this problem is actually pretty easy to solve. by balloonhead · · Score: 1

      Around 1% of people survive an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest to discharge from hospital.

      The vast majority of these are outside their breeding years.

      This has no bearing on birth or death rates - they rarely last too long anyway.

      There are few people medically worth resuscitating due to the futility of it anyway. But we do it because society demands we try, and we can't predict which ones will be successful too well.

      Why not advocate getting rid of antibiotics? That would be about the most significant medical input of the last 1000 years - adds about 10 years onto life expectancy. If we cure cancer, we might add about 2 (most cancer deaths are elderly).

      Hell, why not get rid of the big problems with population? Fresh drinking water, immunisation, good nutrition, shelter, perinatal care? We might all have to have more babies, but they won't last too long anyway.

      --
      This idea was invented by Shampoo.
    3. Re:this problem is actually pretty easy to solve. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, a better solution is to stop giving aid to countries that already cannot support their baby-factory population.

    4. Re:this problem is actually pretty easy to solve. by vertinox · · Score: 1

      Stop brining people back from the dead.

      What? Do they even have the medical means to do this in countries where overpopulation is the worst?

      What you are saying is like going to a starving country in Africa and telling them they shouldn't eat so much because it causes obesity. Its not the problem! The problem is that there is no food!

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    5. Re:this problem is actually pretty easy to solve. by wxjones · · Score: 1

      A better solution is to convince more people to read Slashdot. If the whole world had the same level of sexual activity as the average Slashdot reader, the global population would plummet.

      --
      My SIG is a P226
  14. Let's be a bunch of overpopulation alarmists. Oh no, better yet, let's look at some facts: In most 1st world countries, you have tons and tons of people who are more interested in their career than in having children, so they're either single, or they're married with one or two children. Compare to the way things used to be, where people would have as many children as possible. So the population in these areas will either stay about the same or actually decline over time. Now let's talk about places where people still have a lot of children. They'll immigrate to the places where people have fewer children. No big deal. Besides, people in 3rd world countries have just as much of a right to live and procreate as do overpopulation alarmists. Oh, and the world could easily support a trillion people, and we're only at 6 billion right now.

  15. maybe J. Stalin had a point? by ionix5891 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "When you kill one, it is a tragedy. When you kill ten million, it is a statistic."

    1. Re:maybe J. Stalin had a point? by Creaturee · · Score: 0

      We're not killing, we're fight for democracy! Bill Vaughan: A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a national election.

  16. Doom by XB-70 · · Score: 1
    Mother earth is up against the toughest problem ever faced: the fact that females are 'programmed' to want to procreate. This most basic of instincts - coupled with deep, deep yearnings makes it impossible for us to put any realistic check on population growth.

    We are doomed.

    --
    *** Don't be dull.***
  17. Re:666 x 10^7 people after Good Friday March 21 20 by mashiyach · · Score: 1

    Sounds like you have never used a slide rule?

    For an engineer, who was originally trained on a slide rule, 666 x 10^7 is as special as 666 x 10^-2 or whatever 666 x 10^n.

    However, any measurement also has a certain accuracy, you can almost never measure anything exactly. Regarding people, even if in theory you could count each person when they are being borned or when they die, you would not know for sure how many they were at a precise moment. Regarding the population clock I just wonder how large this uncertainty is.

  18. The solution is obvious by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    For once, porn really is the answer!

  19. Environmental extremists by Simpatico · · Score: 2, Informative

    Environmental extremists have been controlling the population for years by banning DDT.

  20. The solution by underpants_gnome · · Score: 3, Funny

    I heard that a dude called Xenu knows the solution to the population prob...

    Oh wait, someone's knocking on my door. BRB.

  21. MODS by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

    As the other reply said the parent is not flamebait, a healthy population (and indeed the whole biosphere) is in dynamic equilibrium. Whack the dynamics too hard and it MUST find a new equilibrium, or cease to exist.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  22. Infuriatingly presumptuous bastards by CAIMLAS · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This whole approach irritates me.

    Thirty-five odd years ago, there was a similar group of scientists trying to figure the same thing out (or so they said). They made some crazy predictions; namely, that the world would be over-populated, and primarily due to the heat put off by large cities, the global temperatures would result in us all looking like overdone chicken. TEOTWAWKI kind of stuff, all largely targeted at the gas guzzling, "consumerist" way of life.*

    Or, at least, that's how the policy and information filtered down to school-aged kids in the late 80's/early 90's, and how it was communicated through laws and national/international (US and other Western countries) efforts to sap some of the world's hunger - primarily in Africa - to hopefully offset the problem now, so maybe in the future they could take care of themselves. Problem: Africa's population exploded, as did the disease and warfare. And the West is still funding this destructive cycle today, even though it's been proven - time and time again - to make the situation immeasurably worse, not better.

    The supporters of these policies would say "oh, but this just proves the policies were effective!" (with regard to the initial population decines after those seminal works were published) - but they would be wrong. The world population was already in decline before these "runaway population" projection supporters tooted their horns. And since then, world population increase has been anything but exponential. China's population shrank markedly due to birth control; the Western countries (including Russia) have all shrunk substantially in population, and India is moving that way now.

    What we should be trending and looking at predicting is what the next politically-foisted, crack theory will be. Just look back over the past 5 years, and you'll see an obscene amount of variance in just the "global warming/cooling/etc." argument; look back 30 years, and they're using the same models to predict something different still: the globe is cooling, new ice age - oh wait, it's warming, and we'll all look like overdone chicken by 2010... oh, what's that? 2008 is the coldest year on record in 30+ years so far?

    And the same thing applies to population hokum. You can not predict something this complex: there are simply too many factors, internal and external, which have sway. It is significantly more complex than the global warming/cooling argument, because it directly depends (and bases most of its assumptions) on the global warming/cooling expectations. Then you've got cultural changes (ie, women having fewer/almost no children - which is exactly what happens when countries become "westernized", and what was directly overlooked/unknown in the "explosive population" projections), wars, famines, poor land management, extinction of bees (needed to fertilize all flowering plants), epidemics/panemics, and any number of other things.

    * while some of it was noble, it went about it in such a reckless, dishonest manner that the message was largely discredited through the approach. yet enough was absorbed by members of my generation that much of the stupid policies and beliefs impregnated in our minds at a young age, and have taken root now that we are adults. yay, brainwashing.

    --
    ~/ssh slashdot.org ssh: connect to host slashdot.org port 22: too many beers
    1. Re:Infuriatingly presumptuous bastards by Teun · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This whole approach irritates me.
      snip


      The world population was already in decline before these "runaway population" projection supporters tooted their horns. And since then, world population increase has been anything but exponential. China's population shrank markedly due to birth control; the Western countries (including Russia) have all shrunk substantially in population, and India is moving that way now. From what orifice do you pull this information?
      The only significant country with a factual decline in population is Russia, or a little wider, parts of the Former Soviet Union.
      China's population is still increasing rapidly even though the government does since decades it's best to control it, your statement to the opposite is plain stupid.

      What we should be trending and looking at predicting is what the next politically-foisted, crack theory will be. Just look back over the past 5 years, and you'll see an obscene amount of variance in just the "global warming/cooling/etc." argument; look back 30 years, and they're using the same models to predict something different still: the globe is cooling, new ice age - oh wait, it's warming, and we'll all look like overdone chicken by 2010... oh, what's that? 2008 is the coldest year on record in 30+ years so far? That's what applied science is all about, you continually adjust your experiments with the latest knowledge.
      And the latest knowledge (that's not the same as the last few years of data!) does indicate a troubled temperature balance on earth, contrary to a couple of cold and wet years in the mid-eighties of last century.
      Would you be informed about the issues around global temperature you'd know it is a gradual process of many years, even decades and centuries.
      Individual years, even more so seasons are insignificant.

      And the same thing applies to population hokum. You can not predict something this complex: there are simply too many factors, internal and external, which have sway. It is significantly more complex than the global warming/cooling argument, because it directly depends (and bases most of its assumptions) on the global warming/cooling expectations. Then you've got cultural changes (ie, women having fewer/almost no children - which is exactly what happens when countries become "westernized", and what was directly overlooked/unknown in the "explosive population" projections), wars, famines, poor land management, extinction of bees (needed to fertilize all flowering plants), epidemics/panemics, and any number of other things. Yes these predictions are difficult, but no where as impossible as you seem to think.
      There are vasts amount of data available that link population against significant factors and many scientists are working on the important questions.
      Should we stop making these projections just because a potential pandemic or big meteor could entirely change the outcome? I think not!

      * while some of it was noble, it went about it in such a reckless, dishonest manner that the message was largely discredited through the approach. yet enough was absorbed by members of my generation that much of the stupid policies and beliefs impregnated in our minds at a young age, and have taken root now that we are adults. yay, brainwashing. In a place of power you would be a dangerous and reckless person!
      --
      "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
  23. Nope by SpeelingChekka · · Score: 3, Informative

    The more crowded the world gets, the more expensive it will be to have many children, and the fewer people will have

    If that were the case, then wealthier people would be having more children and poorer people would be having fewer. In fact it is the EXACT opposite; the people who can afford the least children, have the most, and vice versa. There are many reasons/factors that come into play, e.g. cultural (it's become "socially unacceptable", for example, amongst the "educated class" to have lots of children - you are considered low class now if you have lots of kids, this was not true even just a few generations ago in our own culture, e.g. my gran was one of over a dozen kids and that was 'normal' then; conversely in many African cultures here, for example, having many children IS regarded as 'wealth'). Another factor I believe is a kind of instinct present in many animals too whereby when times are tough and infant survival rates thus lower, more offspring are produced to increase chances of survival.

    The biggest drop in fertility rates amongst the world's wealthy educated minority did not actually coincide with education though, it coincided with the development and widespread availability of 'The Pill' in the late 60s / early 70s. Most of the world's poor either can't afford good contraception or aren't terribly interested in it.

    For various reasons the poor are still able to survive in big numbers - their basic needs, like food, are mostly taken care of. In some cases this is thanks to welfare and AID, in others thanks to industrial agriculture allowing the earth to produce a lot of food at low cost. Also things like basic medicines/vaccines are comparatively widely available now globally. So average infant survival rates are MUCH higher than they were even fifty years ago. People just aren't dying much, even in poor countries, so producing children IS very cheap UNLESS you actually want to house and educate them properly, but most do not do this.

    1. Re:Nope by riverat1 · · Score: 3, Informative

      I believe research has shown that the single biggest factor in fertility levels is the educational level of women. In general the areas with the highest population growth are the areas where women are the least educated.

    2. Re:Nope by SpeelingChekka · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yeah, I've wondered about this, I'm not completely convinced, but then again haven't studied the 'real research' ... if that's the case, then it may be that the feminist movement in the West has been the largest contributor to declining fertility rates. Likely it's a combination of the various factors (education / contraception availability / cultural), with some factors contributing more. Of course the downside to all this is that uneducated people are experiencing a population explosion - and of course, with lots of kids, it's even harder to educate them - while populations of educated people are in some places even in decline. Whether or not this is a "problem" depends on a number of things; if education is the answer, then it's only truly a "problem" if education levels do not "catch up" with population growth fast enough. Technology allows us (so far) to 'feed more people with less', so masses can survive, but if the ratio of uneducated to educated becomes too large, social problems may create downward spirals that undermine and destabilise the entire system. The worst case scenario is the collapse of industrialised economies and large-scale reversion of the entire world to third-world conditions (with a steep decline in population following that soon thereafter as e.g. dams break down and drinking water becomes polluted etc.). So-called "overpopulation" is not a problem though if most of those people are productive, hard-working and by and large obey the rule of law - technology will solve the resource problems while education could rein in exponential population growth. It's difficult to predict exactly which way it'll go, but I fall slightly on the side of pessimism these days - I don't see modernisation and its requisite work ethic growing fast enough amongst the uneducated, instead I see an increase in destructive ethics like entitlement and socialism (i.e. growing masses of lazy poor 'demanding' or stealing from the wealthier and unwilling to work).

  24. holy shit this is so easy! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    just count everyone's fingers and divide by ten!

    1. Re:holy shit this is so easy! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I've got twelve fingers you insensitive clod!

      And if i hear any Inigo Montoya jokes you'll be finding a nice dose of iocane in your coffee

  25. Re:666 x 10^7 people after Good Friday March 21 20 by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

    If you're going to bring logs into it then any number is 666 x n^m for some value of n and m. Even restricting it integer values of n and m we've passed quite a lot of such points already. Exactly how many is left as an exercise to the reader.

    --
    I am TheRaven on Soylent News
  26. Re:Guns don't kill people, Banks do by Teun · · Score: 1

    I think you're both wrong.

    Strife and even war has historically been caused by men wanting more, the kind of more (gold, fur, shiny stuff, bigger SUV) that woman expect him to deliver.

    So behind every war there is an greedy woman...
    :/

    --
    "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
  27. Carrying Capacity of Humans on Earth by BillyBob23 · · Score: 1

    One this is somewhat certain as far as human population on the Earth goes: at least according to my High School AP Environmental Science book. Populations in whatever constrained area have what's called a "carrying capacity"(called K). This is the effective numerical limit of population as it is constrained by limited resources. Global Warming aside, the generally accepted number K for humans on Earth is around 12 Billion. I don't know about you, but sitting currently at 6.5 Billion with 6 announced only a while back, I feel like 12 Billion is scarily close. Oh yeah...if I remember right the book said we would probably hit K sometime between 2045 and 2065. Once we hit K, there is a kinda population cleansing. 15-20% of the population dies in a very untimely manner, and we kinda start a little cycle of population. 12 Billion now, 10 Billion in a decade, 12 Billion in another decade, etc. This is a pretty consistent phenomenon in the animal world, and can be easily observed in rabbit populations in North America. They have around a 7 year cycle. There are even hunting laws in the U.S. that are synchronized with these K cycles (keeps populations more consistent). Of course, I've never heard a politician apply these concepts to humans... I'm just saying things don't exactly look to green on my side of the fence.

    1. Re:Carrying Capacity of Humans on Earth by Kelbear · · Score: 1

      New technology improves the situation to an unpredictable degree. We could be constrained by resource availability, but if new technology allows access to greater resources, "K" is raised. If new technology allows greater efficiency in using resources, "K" would be raised.

      However, new technology isn't easy to predict, and is perhaps impossible to predict. But it happens and we don't know how to measure that. Its effect on "K" can be dramatic as the industrial revolution demonstrated, and yet we can't predict how slow or fast technology advances, this makes "K" similarly unpredictable. Technology advancement could continue forever, or it could run hard up against laws of physics and stop. We really don't know.

      Fortunately as has been mentioned elsewhere in the thread, populations don't necessarily expand indefinitely.

  28. There is an upper limit. by sidragon.net · · Score: 2, Insightful

    People have been saying that since Malthus and predicting a massive population collapse. The funny thing is, civilization keeps finding ways to accommodate larger numbers.

    Agreed, but that does not mean it always can. So long as all our eggs are in one basket, we are constrained with finite space, and therefore, finite resources. With unchecked population increase, consumption will inevitably overtake maximum production limits, likely resulting in precipitous—and immensely uncomfortable—population decline.

    The quantitative questions are being addressed. (What is that upper limit? When will we reach it?) However, whether will we choose wise reproductive habits receives much less attention. I think we would rather not find ourselves under the hardships of overpopulation.

    You should also note that most industrialized countries are pretty close to zero-population growth without immigration

    While the first two questions remain outstanding, it appears we may be deciding favorably on the qualitative point, and my angst may be for nothing. Global population increase is slowing; the trend of declining birth rates is not limited to industrialized nations.

    1. Re:There is an upper limit. by Tango42 · · Score: 1

      Population decline is not inevitable. Population growth must eventually stop, but we may well be able to stop it before overshooting the maximum supportable (which could well be much much higher than current populations, depending on future advances in technology) and then just have a stable population.

  29. There is plenty of evidence. by microbox · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The earth is a closed eco-system, unless we head for the stars. There have been many studies of population growth in closed systems. They end with a lot of suffering.

    It's quite possible that human population will trend nicely towards an equilibrium, however, our very economic system is based on perpetual growth and not equilibrium. It is a matter of time until we see some limiting factor in the natural world, that will prevent that magic 5% year-on-year growth. At this point, investment will collapse, and we'll be forced to develop equilibrium based economics.

    It is worrying that we are tending more and more to keep our system going by drawing down on our resources faster, instead of being conservative and clever about our use of the planet. If human population is going to gently move to towards equilibrium, then there must be careful consideration of sustainable development. If we continue our hack-n-slash approach, we may well end up with a disaster on our hands. We are already seeing signs of imminent future problems with arable land, energy resources, fresh water and climate change.

    Perhaps it would be sane to penalize obviously myopic economic activities, like mining oil-sands, trawler fishing, and massive deforestation. Unfortutely, our economic system is structured such that companies can gain "growth" by hiding costs in externalities. That is precisely the problem with "next-quarter" economics, and characterizes much of the mentality of wall-street.

    Our growth based economic system is a tradition that has grown out of the folkways of antiquity. It is no more or less wise than bacteria growing exponentially across an agar jell. This economic system co-exists with, and is ultimately subordinate to the matter-energy relationship that we have with the planet. This is analogous to the bacterial growth hitting the edge of the petri dish.

    Perhaps you could try to argue that we'll just find cleverer and cleverer ways of doing things. Blind faith in the genius inventor is an excuse for pillaging the world right now. It's just that the scientific method that gave us the industrial revolution is the same scientific method that is saying we need to curb carbon emissions. The problem isn't with science, but with myopic greed and stubborn ignorance about our relationship with the world.

    Expect human society to behave no wiser than the bacteria on the agar jell. We'll consume ever faster, and change our ways only after significant insurmountable problems arise. This situation is analogous to how a person sinks into depression, and then resolves to significant change after they realize that depression is not living.

    We learnt nothing from the extinction of the dodo. There will be many more dodos in the future.

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    1. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by STrinity · · Score: 1

      The earth is a closed eco-system, unless we head for the stars. There have been many studies of population growth in closed systems. They end with a lot of suffering.
      Studies involving animals that can only improve their exploitation of the environment through evolution. Humans aren't so limited -- as tool users, we can optimize our use of the environment with technology. The hard-limits of physics -- the amount of phosphorous -- are a long way away.

      It's quite possible that human population will trend nicely towards an equilibrium, however, our very economic system is based on perpetual growth and not equilibrium.
      Economic growth doesn't necessarily require population growth.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    2. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by microbox · · Score: 1

      Humans aren't so limited -- as tool users, we can optimize our use of the environment with technology. The hard-limits of physics -- the amount of phosphorous -- are a long way away.

      This is true, there is no argument there from me.

      The point is that if we really were such clever tool-wielding mammals, then we wouldn't (for example) gamble with highly unpredictable and potentially catastrophic climate change, because of a need to temporarily satiate ourselves. This justification through faith in an economic tradition should not fly in the face of what we *know* about the natural world. I've heard right-wing economists argue that the economy can fundamentally do without natural resources. It is not a sign of intelligence to destroy forests, topsoil, pollute the air and vast tracks of land, and then somehow think we'll cope with the consequences in ways we do not yet understand.

      It's quite possible that human population will trend nicely towards an equilibrium, however, our very economic system is based on perpetual growth and not equilibrium.

      Economic growth doesn't necessarily require population growth.


      This strikes me as a bit disingenuous. Population growth with a shrinking economy will mean less to go around. The very economic fundamentals are food, water, clothing, heat and housing. Less of these essential items will be an easy catalyst for those who would beat the drums of war. It does not paint a picture of a stable and peaceful future.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    3. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by STrinity · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The point is that if we really were such clever tool-wielding mammals, then we wouldn't (for example) gamble with highly unpredictable and potentially catastrophic climate change,
      As intelligent tool users, the question we should ask ourselves about climate change is at what point the economic tradeoff of stopping it outweighs the economic costs of letting it continue. This is a serious discussion that we should be having, but aren't because conservatives have their heads in the sands about whether it's happening at all, while certain extremists on the other side are running around like Chicken Little because they're assuming worst-case predictions will turn out to be true. There's no oxygen in the room for a serious discussion of the issue.

      This strikes me as a bit disingenuous. Population growth with a shrinking economy will mean less to go around.
      You're absolutely correct, which is why I didn't say you could have population growth without economic growth. My claim was the exact inverse -- you can have economic growth without population growth.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    4. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by microbox · · Score: 1

      As intelligent tool users, the question we should ask ourselves about climate change is at what point the economic tradeoff of stopping it outweighs the economic costs of letting it continue.

      While this is true, the situation is that we aren't having that discussion, but instead the very same people who were spreading disinformation about smoking and bad health are doing the same thing with the science of climate change. Now that the case of anthropogenic climate change has become more compelling, deniers are reaching for the adaptation argument. Adaptation *must* be explored because that is what we'll end up doing - despite are best scientific understanding, which is extraordinarily limited. We will choose adaption even if it means sea levels rising 20m, and billions of refugees. The reason for this is because of the extra-ordinary momentum of our perpetual growth based economic tradition, which is founded on primeval drives to consume.

      My point is that, at some point, that perpetual growth machine will meet its limitations, and that won't look pretty. Those very same smart-tool-wielding mammels will probably go to war with each other. We were intelligent enough to make tools, but the question remains as to whether we'll be smarter than bacteria spreading across an agar jell.

      I didn't say you could have population growth without economic growth. My claim was the exact inverse -- you can have economic growth without population growth.

      While economic growth doesn't rely on population growth - population growth relies on economic growth. Not in the strictest sense - because we can have more people with less to go around - but in the sense of traditions that are far more powerful than rational thought.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    5. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by STrinity · · Score: 1

      While economic growth doesn't rely on population growth - population growth relies on economic growth. Not in the strictest sense - because we can have more people with less to go around - but in the sense of traditions that are far more powerful than rational thought.
      The facts don't support this -- poor Third World countries have much higher growth rates than prosperous First World nations.
      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    6. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by microbox · · Score: 1

      Just because poor nations produce more babies doesn't mean that perpetual-growth-economics might not precipitate population collapse. In fact, if you think about it, the fact that the poorest nations produce more babies is evidence of peoples abilities to balance their desires with economic realities.

      Western women have been freed by birth control, and politics made possible by our cultural notion of our intrinsic equalness. Education, wealth and technology is the reason why the richest countries don't produce more babies. Thus, it should be possible to stabilize the world population by bring the world's poorest out of poverty and establishing educational institutions.

      Nonetheless, the richest countries consume most of the natural resources. On a per-person basis, the amount we consume in tremendous. That production of goods is based on a system that is drawing down on natural resources that we don't know how to replace. This includes fish stocks, arable land, fresh water resources, forest usage, air pollution, general pollution and energy resources.

      Do you think it will be possible to bring this level of consumption to the world's poorest? Yet that is exactly what they are trying to do with a lot of success in India and China. That's why it's *exponential* growth. We are shaping our environment with *exponential* proportions. This approach is likely to trigger an environmental collapse at some time in the future, unless we can work out how to make *sustainable* use of our environment.

      In short - exponential growth coupled with unsustainable procedures is destined for failure.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    7. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by FLEB · · Score: 1

      The point is that if we really were such clever tool-wielding mammals, then we wouldn't (for example) gamble with highly unpredictable and potentially catastrophic climate change, because of a need to temporarily satiate ourselves.

      People are free-thinking creatures, drawing from different experience, and just because some of them see more merit in more urgent satiation is no reason to call the race as a whole stupid. Perhaps some, by way of different information or experiences, are calculating the odds differently and "gambling" accordingly. Although the idea is relatively well wrapped up, there are still some difference in opinions as to the extent, effects, and human coping ability regarding climate change-- if not even in the scientific community, at least in the greater mass of people--and their everyday lives are a primary change agent.

      --
      Information wants to be free.
      Entertainment wants to be paid.
      You just want to be cheap.
    8. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by Teancum · · Score: 1

      When you have next to nothing, it is hard not to go anywhere but up.

      You are also missing the point that, at least of those countries that are granting basic freedoms to their citizens to be able to join the world economy, that they are joining in with the prosperity that already exists.

      This means that they are enjoying the same kinds of technology, and in some cases even skipping whole technologies to much more advanced forms. For example, few Chinese have land-line telephones, but cell phone coverage is nearly universal and in some ways better than even America or Europe.

      GDP is also a difficult thing to compare between one country vs. another anyway, but you certainly can see how some countries that 50 years ago were clearly 3rd world nations both in terms of infrastructure and poverty levels are now at nearly 1st world levels of affluence. What about South Korea, to give an example.

      There are other factors that impact the traditional 1st world nations as well for growth rates, including overbearing tax rates and business regulation that slows down economic growth.

    9. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by toddhisattva · · Score: 1

      The earth is a closed eco-system, unless we head for the stars. There have been many studies of population growth in closed systems. They end with a lot of suffering. Good work uniting the creationist understanding of thermodynamics with the socialist understanding of scientific progress!
    10. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by Kelbear · · Score: 1

      Both of you are correct. The population of countries as they become "developed" is that they start undeveloped with a high birth rate and high death rate, then an economic boom results in high birth rates and low death rates, then stablizes at low birth rates and low death rates.

      Unfortunately, this is still just historic data and the global economy is not the same as it was during the industrial revolution. Whether or not this same trend is occuring/will occur/can occur is still undetermined and hotly debated.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition

    11. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by TheoMurpse · · Score: 1

      As intelligent tool users, the question we should ask ourselves about climate change is at what point the economic tradeoff of stopping it outweighs the economic costs of letting it continue.
      That statement is only true if (1) the population, as a whole, is selfless; (2) we gain perpetual life; or (3) doom is so near that (simplifying the value equations a tiny bit) the majority of the population will still be alive for a long enough time to experience what they view as an unfavorable situation to doing without their wants.

      Assuming that humans will never be selfless beings (clearly we're not now, or we'd be working more on this problem already) and humans will not attain infinite life before we destroy Earth, it looks like we'll have to get dangerously close to ruin before things get fixed.

      Concerning a selfless population, humans will not willingly go without any amount of their wants unless they will recoup the benefit in the future. Hell, most Americans can't even deal with credit properly, and that's a much quicker-to-injury route than overusing resources.

      Concerning attaining perpetual life and the balance of ages, consider this: suppose it is projected that in X years resources will be ruinously depleted. Assume the average life expectancy of a human is Y. That means any person who is at least Y-X years old couldn't give two shits and still be considered highly rational (assuming their value system isn't "NUMBER ONE PRIORITY: perpetuate human life").
    12. Re:There is plenty of evidence. by microbox · · Score: 1

      Toddhisattva,

      Good work uniting the creationist understanding of thermodynamics with the socialist understanding of scientific progress!

      I would like to commend you on your amazingly clear statement.

      In fact, it cannot be said to be a statement. Nor can it be said to not be a statement. Furthermore, you can't assert that both of those statements are true, and neither can you assert that both of them are false.

      You like, stopped my mind or something.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
  30. Who can replace the 3rd world? by bussdriver · · Score: 1

    Long ago I read a paper that said for everybody to have a living standard on par with a European 1st world nation the planet could only sustain 2 billion people.

    Industrializing the 3rd world can not solve the problem simply because the current global system that supports industrialized nations depends upon exploiting 3rd world resources and labor. Note: I'm not even getting into environmental issues.

    - Alternatives:

    How about GM food? China has rice that causes birth defects. You already eat GM food like the cattle we are. Would be easy to slip it in, have gov help the corps cover it up like they do on so many things already. It could easily take a generation before its resolved and then the population is lower.

    How about a mutated gene? we use deadly bacteria and viruses to mix genes between creatures without any knowledge of how it works (fine, maybe we know 1% of the genetics field at this early stage.) Maybe its more humane for one of these new live-virus "vaccines" to go terribly wrong than to starve people by killing of major sources of food (or all the bees...)

    1. Re:Who can replace the 3rd world? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What study have you read that associated the modifications to the food in China with the birth defects? The amount of food that's available at the supermarket around the corner from my house is almost entirely GM. They've started adding an "organic" section recently, but aside from that, all the foods in the produce section are either modified or treated with chemicals, or both. People arn't dying left and right in the United States because of it. Not to mention the number of studies performed before the foods were allowed to be sold on shelves.

    2. Re:Who can replace the 3rd world? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      I personally think the world carrying capacity for human population is much higher than you are suggesting here. It may take some advances in technology, and require some creative thinking regarding food production far and above what is done right now.

      The complete opposite of what you have said here is that the current world population.... assuming it is about 8 billion give or take a few billion in either direction... can fit into the state of Texas, including food production.

      Here is another "factoid": New York City is one of the most efficient cities in America, in terms of energy usage per person and per capita resources consumed for each person there. That isn't to say that the people of NYC are poor.... which is hardly the case. But if you want to allow an increase in human population, there are methods that could be employed to support a much larger population in the world than we have at the moment... and give everybody a 1st world level of income/resources.

      We may have to change the way we do some things if this sort of population growth does occur, but I think it can be accommodated if it does occur. Certainly until the world population does stabilize, which it seems to be doing anyway. And that is assuming that we, as a species, stays on this rock now that we've discovered how to get off of it. Or that the resources that we, as a species, must necessarily come from this planet exclusively.

    3. Re:Who can replace the 3rd world? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Here is another "factoid": New York City is one of the most efficient cities in America, in terms of energy usage per person and per capita resources consumed for each person there. That isn't to say that the people of NYC are poor.... which is hardly the case.

      They aren't? By what measure?

      If you just look at their income and expenditure in Dollars, they may look rich, but that's only because everything is overpriced in NYC, especially housing. Considering that typical NYC residents pay thousands of dollars per month for very tiny, cramped apartments built 100+ years ago in not-so-great condition, I don't know that I'd say they're not "poor". When determining who's "poor" and not poor, you have to look at the standard of living. Judging by the housing in Manhattan I've seen, New Yorkers aren't very well off. Maybe they like it that way, because they can live in a busy city with lots of "nightlife" (whatever the fuck that is), and don't actually spend much time at home because they're either at work or in a bar all the time, but most other people have no interest in a lifestyle like that. They want a nice place to live, and you'll never get than in NYC unless you're a multimillionaire near the level of Donald Trump.

      I've visited NYC several times. It's certainly very "efficient", if you care about that. It's not cheap, though: so what if you don't need a car there? You're still going to be spending far more to live there than in another city where a car is mandatory, and unless you're in the financial or fashion industries, there's probably no jobs there for you (I'm an engineer, so there's absolutely no jobs there for me). It's a fun place to visit for a few days, but I wouldn't want to live there. And as another responder said, that city only exists because of millions of other people living outside the city (like in China) to support it.

    4. Re:Who can replace the 3rd world? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      The complete opposite of what you have said here is that the current world population.... assuming it is about 8 billion give or take a few billion in either direction... can fit into the state of Texas, including food production.

      I always hear this from fundamentalist religion nuts, and I don't believe it. You might be able to fit 8 billion into TX by cramming them into inhuman housing conditions, like giant ugly skyscrapers full of nasty apartments (think of the Chicago housing projects, but 100 stories high), and creating mass transit between these towers that actually works, but there's absolutely no way you can grow enough food for 8 billion people in the remaining space unless you resort to Soylent Green. Plus, every time another Hurricane Katrina or Rita hits the Gulf Coast, billions will die and society will collapse, unless you can somehow develop the technology to control storms.

      Are you a fundamentalist nut?

  31. In Other News... by Barkmullz · · Score: 1

    Our planet is in imminent danger of being eaten by an enormous mutant star goat!


    --
    Ronald said nothing. He flung himself from the room, flung himself upon his horse, and rode madly off in all directions.
  32. Peak Oil will result in a global die-off by SpecialAgentXXX · · Score: 4, Informative

    The population has exploded in the past century for one and only one reason - PEAK OIL. For every calorie of food that we consume it takes about 10 calories of energy to make. It is not sustainable to expend more calories than you consume. Through the use of oil, we have been able to have machines do the manual labor of farming. Through the use of natural gas, we have created fertilizers to grow crops. Take away the fossil fuels and our farming capacity dramatically drops.

    Industrializing 3rd world nations will only hasten the global die-off. Look at the HUGE impact on commodities that China & India have place since they industrialized. If China was to consume like we do in the US, it would take 7 planet earths. A real good DVD to watch is A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash.

    I strongly urged all /.'ers to read The Oil Drum blog, especially the daily DrumBeat's.

    1. Re:Peak Oil will result in a global die-off by Fantastic+Lad · · Score: 1
      I'm not sure about Peak Oil anymore.

      I've been thinking for a while now that, while perhaps on the horizon, peak oil is simply being trumpeted because it happens to be the least insane-sounding of the various real dangers pending. It is convenient, because it provides an unspoken legitimizer for the various wars in the world today. While people are offended and frightened of the idea of war for oil, it is something that they can accept as being within the realm of human possibility and that sort of acceptance goes a long, long way. "Oh, how terrible, but it doesn't contravene the laws of physics as I understand them. I won't quit my job tomorrow to spend time with my loved ones over this."

      But building prison camps and rapidly placing systems into being which are designed to manage an enormous and rapid population decline due to global disaster is, I think, the real underlying reason for the current wars and state of political turmoil in the world. Sometimes to fight forest fires, fire fighters will perform controlled burns to prevent outright disaster. I think we are seeing the beginnings of a controlled burn of the human population right now.

      The reason for it all will much more likely have to do with comet impacts over the next few years. I've mentioned in years past the twin sun/dark star theory and it's effect upon objects in the Kuiper Belt. --Essentially the un-ignited ball of hydrogen orbiting our sun, the presence of which neatly explains the otherwise weird orbital deviations long noted in the various planets, crashes through the Kuiper asteroid belt out around Pluto and sends a cometary swarm into a lower solar orbit every 300,000 years or so. This has just happened, I suspect, sometime in the 1990's, and we're seeing the early effects of that now. Comet and fireball impacts have risen very sharply over the last year both in size and frequency, with new and significant impacts coming every couple of days, some of which have even made the top layer of the news, but most of which are locally reported events which even the news agencies are not saying are 'a one in a million chance' anymore when the top of somebody's car or house gets a hole punched in it. Plus there's been the interesting phenomenon which should have been expected but I didn't think of it until it started happening. --There's been a dramatic number of new 'moons' being discovered around the gas giants in the last few years, 41 moons discovered since the new millennium, bringing the total number we know of in our solar system to 62, (as of last year, anyway). --One could argue that these discoveries are due to advances in telescope and probe technology, except that the discoveries of many of these new moons have been in descending orbital order on a time scale. Neptune and Uranus first, then the nearer planets. Hmm.

      I did say that peak oil was the least insane-sounding of several other theories. Comets are just a part of it. I also think we're in for some curious stuff with regard to aliens, but I'm not sure how many of us will still be standing if/when that comes about. Those who are still un-vaporized and not in prison camps, and not reduced in number through the deliberate 'de-foliation' of the human stocks through disease and bullet distribution, will no-doubt be well programmed to think of the other crazy events in religious terms. (They don't put that much energy into ensuring that most of the globe belongs to one cult or other for no reason!)

      When 'Christ' appears, he won't be human and he certainly won't be here to save you. What a great way to defeat a population! --Pre-program them through history/time manipulation via the forward planning committee to think of you as gods so the whole planet will bend at the knee without a fight upon the arrival of your main forces. Think that's nuts? Of course you do! --That's the only way any sane television viewer could think unless they've gone down the rabbit hole like I have. (Keanuuuuu! Where arrrrre you? You didn't tell me wh

    2. Re:Peak Oil will result in a global die-off by rastoboy29 · · Score: 1

      Yes but...

      If we used nuclear power, solar, and a bunch of other things to create electricity, we could use electric machines instead of internal combustion powered machines to automate farming, for example.  You seem to be focused on the problem, not the solution.

      In any case I take issue with the 10calories per calorie consumed argument.  That, sir, is what we can a statistic, and we all know about those.  If you look at the whole picture, you would realize that the reason, for example, that we spent a billion dollars on an oil platform, is because we get way, way more than a billion dollars of value from what it drills up.  That is probably one part of the equation that your statistic ignores.

    3. Re:Peak Oil will result in a global die-off by Capt+James+McCarthy · · Score: 1

      Why, oh why, did I read your post? Well, it is still good to see the "tin foil hat" folks out and about.

      --
      There are no loopholes. It's either legal or it's not.
    4. Re:Peak Oil will result in a global die-off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For every calorie of food that we consume it takes about 10 calories of energy to make. It is not sustainable to expend more calories than you consume.

      Let me introduce you to the laws of thermodynamics. You will always expend more than you consume. Humans are not 100% efficient (nor is anything else), so our available energy to do useful work will always be less than the total energy consumed.

      As to how that is sustainable, it's only sustainable while we can get additional energy from other sources. In a closed system, we would not survive, and there's no way around that. The additional energy to the "Earth system" comes from the Sun. Not only does it provide energy for photosynthesis, but it also powers the weather of the planet, which distributes water nicely.

      Through the use of oil, we have been able to have machines do the manual labor of farming.

      So instead of crops dying from lack of rain, we have use energy other than from the sun and have powered irrigation systems. And we have all sorts of other machines that allow us to farm a lot than a bunch of humans would be able to for the same energy expenditure. I'm fairly certain we've never been so efficient as we are today, which is why we all have a lot of food today, as opposed to the days when famine was an issue.

      Through the use of natural gas, we have created fertilizers to grow crops.

      We're not going to have a shortage of fertilizers anytime soon. Do you have any idea just how much fertilizer is a byproduct of pig farms, for example?

      Take away the fossil fuels and our farming capacity dramatically drops.

      Sure, unless we find other energy sources to replace fossil fuels. But if you're in favor of stopping industrialization, that's exactly what you're doing anyway. Artificially removing fossil fuels (as in not using them instead of using them up) and dramatically decreasing farming capacity. That's not a solution to the problem and it would cause drastic human population drops (from starvation) now instead of in a future where we've run out of fossil fuels and other energy sources.

      Industrializing 3rd world nations will only hasten the global die-off. Look at the HUGE impact on commodities that China & India have place since they industrialized.

      That's not true unless population growth continues at current rates. China's vast population isn't due to their industrialization. In fact, every nation with large population growths today are not industrialized nations. There's a definite trend towards having less children and being better off, so industrialization seems to be the answer.

      If I'm consuming more than the world can provide, the solution is NOT for me to consume less while population continuously increase. Even if I do start consuming 7 times less, eventually population is going to increase to 7x the current number and we're screwed as a species anyway, always having to lower consumption until that can't be accomplished anymore, because we're consuming the bare minimum for survival.

      I should never have to make a choice between my standard of living and the well being of the planet. Being alive isn't worth shit without a good standard of living. I should be able to consume however much I bloody want, and if are consuming seven times more than is sustainable by the Earth, than we should work to have a seventh of the current human population, all of them consuming as much as Americans. I'm not going to give up any convenience for a nebulous future earth, and I shouldn't have to because that's not a sustainable strategy.

  33. population by Creaturee · · Score: 0

    The sum of the intelligence on the planet is a constant; the population is growing.

  34. Georgia Guidestones by gd23ka · · Score: 1

    That rock will support many, many more btw. There's plenty of space left to populate and it shouldn't be up to establishment scum like Maurice Strong to decide. The true worry behind population control lies in the second part of the word.. control. Too large a population exceeds the ability to effectively monitor and control.

    Here btw is the population control agenda set in stone for all to see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones

            * Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature
            * Guide reproduction wisely - improving fitness and diversity.
            * Unite humanity with a living new language.
            * Rule passion - faith - tradition - and all things with tempered reason.
            * Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
            * Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a one world court
            * Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
            * Balance personal rights with social duties.
            * Prize truth - beauty - love - seeking harmony with the infinite.
            * Be not a cancer on the earth - Leave room for nature - Leave room for nature.

  35. Re:Guns don't kill people, Banks do by tabrnaker · · Score: 1
    Can't blame the women. Men who desire women who are not theirs to have will try to 'buy' them.

    If a woman goes away because you aren't keeping her neck deep in her vices, well, she wasn't yours to begin with was she? As long as women will prostitute their bodies for their vices and men will prostitute their minds and morals for theirs, well....

  36. You all need to do MORE research by CranberryKing · · Score: 1
    Your due diligence research is dubious. You looked at a couple of links so you could come back and say I was full of shit. This is not research. I won't answer every question about conspiracy theories. If you had a brain, you would be more thorough and keep an open mind.

    I've never really understood the mentality behind 'debunkers'. My only guess is it's insecurity. Wanting to seem reasonable and rational. Down to Earth. I'm curious how this person defines a minion and keeps themselves out of that description.

    There is no website that is going to enlighten you if you are looking for a specific outcome. Try reading some books for a larger perspective.

    Architects of Conspiracy
    Pawns in the Game
    Rule by Secrecy
    The Unseen Hand

    Hell even liberals can handle Confessions of an Economic Hitman..

    More specific areas:
    Trans Formation of America
    The Creature from Jekyll Island
    (any books on) HAARP
    The Montauk Project

    Just unplug yourself from your pod and don't be in such a rush to be a slave.

    1. Re:You all need to do MORE research by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

      This stuff is both awesome and hilarious. It's like if the ranting drunk guy on the street corner had a laptop and internet connection!

  37. Also on the topic of food importation by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 1

    I fail to see why this is a bad thing. Some areas of the world are better for producing food than others, just like some areas are better for producing wood, and so on. Why shouldn't the areas that can produce more than they need ship the products to other areas? This isn't Civilization 4, a city doesn't have to directly produce all its food. We can move resources around. A country is a highly arbitrary border anyhow. Bitching about England importing food would be the same as bitching about New York importing food. Just because New York is importing it from other US states doesn't change what is happening: The food is being grown where it is convenient and shipped elsewhere.

    1. Re:Also on the topic of food importation by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I fail to see why this is a bad thing. Some areas of the world are better for producing food than others, just like some areas are better for producing wood, and so on. Why shouldn't the areas that can produce more than they need ship the products to other areas?

      Yep, this is basic economics here: societies trade goods and services with each other so they can mutually benefit.

      However, the problem is that, if you have a society that's short on food, and want to buy food from another society which has plenty, you have to trade something of value with them. If you make nice cars like the Japanese, you can give them cars in exchange for oil or food. But what does Britain have to trade? And what does the USA have to trade? Not much, since they "outsourced" all their manufacturing to China.

      A country is a highly arbitrary border anyhow.

      No, countries' borders are generally the result of historical and cultural factors. The UK's borders have been in place for a very long time now, as have the USA's.

      Regardless, to address your example of New York importing food, even if the USA's borders were redrawn, making NYC an independent city-state, the above would still be correct. The people of NYC would have to export something of value in order to import food. If they can create enough value by monkeying with stock certificates and creating stupid-looking new clothes for women, then they'll manage. But for the UK, offhand I can't really think of anything of value the UK produces and exports, except for some sheepsmilk cheese I bought the other day. They seem to have bought into the "outsourcing" BS even more than we Americans did; at least our country is still large enough and has enough natural resources that many other industries are still around, even if they aren't very prominent. The UK is a tiny, overpopulated island. Just look at it on Google Maps (in the roadmap view): the England part is completely filled with roads, so much that it just looks like a giant suburb.

  38. Your Kidding? by CranberryKing · · Score: 1
    'the level of complicity for either plan to work borders on ludicrus'
    The world is composed of complicated systems. Many slashdot readers build complicated systems. It doesn't fit your world view so it becomes ludicrus. This is about as unscientific a statement as they come.

    'You would literally need billions of people in on the conspiracy for it to work'
    Absolutely not. It's called compartmentalization and it exists in virtually any organization. Does the president confer with you about foreign policy at his cabinet meetings? No. Do they effect you? Yes.

    "Could everybody stop saying 'Oh no', or the fucking Cool-Aid guys gonna keep coming in?.."

    1. Re:Your Kidding? by downix · · Score: 1

      I work on complicated systems. Complicated COMPUTER systems. Computers are programmable, limited, do not think on their own. Such a comparison is in and of itself a farce on its face. Your conspiracy is based on real people, with real lives, real ambitions, real dreams. Computers do their job, and thats it. People have a nasty habit of this odd thing called free will. Hate to break it to you dude, this does not meet the test of a system, or even plausable. UFO, JFK, Area51, those conspiracys are limited to the realm of the "it might be" but this one would require complicity by so many people that would have to be lobotomized first. And 3 billion people lobotomized, I think we'd notice...

      --
      Karma Whoring for Fun and Profit.
  39. Let's put this into numbers... by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 4, Interesting
    If you moved every single person in the world to the land area within Texas, we'd have less population density than New York City (cites: NYC, land area of Texas, world population).

    The water outflow of the Columbia River would provide each and every person with nearly 26 gallons of fresh water per day (cites: Columbia River).

    We could feed all those people - about 500 square meters per person - with the existing farmland within the US (cites: vegan food estimates, farmland in the US).

    Essentially, we could live mid-density, and feed and provide potable water for every single person on the face of the earth, and not require a single person living outside of Texas - no one on the other 6 continents, the oceans, or any other State. No one in Canada or Mexico.

    We could feed everyone without a single acre converted from farmland - wouldn't need to touch a single acre of forest, nor city, nor ocean, nor park.

    The earth can support a LOT of people; the problem is distribution of the resources. And that is a purely political issue. Concerns about too many people on earth are demonstrably false.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    1. Re:Let's put this into numbers... by aristofanes · · Score: 1

      land area of Texas 268820 square miles x 640
      =172044800 acres.
      World population 6.6 billion (10^9)
      population/acres =38.36 people per acre
      =24551 per square mile

      1 acre = 43560 square feet/38.36
      =1135 square feet per person
      =a square 33.7 feet per side

      No roads!

    2. Re:Let's put this into numbers... by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Note that NYC is over 25K/square mile. Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong, London all push beyond that. You have to think UP - vertically...:)

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    3. Re:Let's put this into numbers... by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1
      I've heard those numbers before and it's thought provoking, but your analysis leaves out a lot of important details.

      Where are the the manufactured goods coming from? What materials are you using to build homes? 26 gallons a day is enough for personal water usage, but is it enough for irrigation?

      Cities like New York, Singapore and Tokyo are not self-sufficient by a long shot. People can only live in at those densities by drawing on resources from a much much larger area. You will never find an area the size of Texas with all the resources that you need. At the very least you'll need to grow crops in different areas and you'll need people there to work those farms and more people to provide infrastructure to the farmers and probably someone to put the crops in cans and trucks to moves those cans and... now you're back to where we started with people spread out all over the world.

      Plus your numbers would require that we all go vegan. Good luck with that one.

    4. Re:Let's put this into numbers... by StikyPad · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but that begs the question: WTF wants to live in Texas?

    5. Re:Let's put this into numbers... by focoma · · Score: 1

      IANAE (I am not an economist), but you might be missing the point here. Sure, limiting the whole human population to a land mass the size of Texas might not be feasible, but it's just Texas we're talking about here. Filling up a theoretical Texas with people to the brink of unsustainability is far, far from a world-wide population problem. The fact that we can even imagine this thought-experiment gives credence to the claim that the problem isn't in the size of the world's population at all.

      You say that all the additional resources needed for a Texas-sized megapolis would involve spreading workers all over the world, but won't a land mass the size of the mainland U.S. alone (or of North America, at most) be sufficient, given our current state of technology? You say that we can't all be vegan, living only on the produce of U.S. farmland. But won't the U.S. meat industry be sufficient to feed the omnivores as well? I'm honestly curious here. If we concentrated all the necessary resources to sustain the current population into one place, how much land do we really need?

      Of course, we're not talking about the real Texas or the real U.S. here. Your parent post wasn't asking for a world-wide immigration; he's just showing why the "problem" is probably not a world-wide resource problem. Is it a political problem? Is it a problem with the distribution of wealth? Is it an education problem? A morality problem? All of the above? Maybe, maybe not. But something tells me the solution needs to be more complex than the Malthusian ones currently being advocated by many economists (e.g. 1) Instigate population decline. 2) ??? 3) Profit!).

      --

      - Francis Ocoma

      Please wait while Sig Request is being processed...

  40. I'm absolutely certain there is one.... by 3seas · · Score: 1

    ... myself. All the rest, could be just my imagination.

  41. Population reduction industries by gobbo · · Score: 1

    The U.S. transportation system and food industries seem to be by far the most efficient methods currently addressing the problem.

  42. something is wrong here. by glitch23 · · Score: 1

    Childbearing populations combined with severe resource shortages in some parts of the world make pinning down a global headcount unfeasible for ten years from now, let alone out to 2050. The article continues beyond its original borders, as well, with commenters in the field of population studies noting we don't even have a good grasp on how many people were alive in 2007.

    Maybe the people making these calculations should talk to the climatologists who think they have correct global climate models that can predict temperatures 50 years into the future despite all the variables involved. But hey, if people are willing to listen to such far out (no pun intended) climate conjectures then the people calculating the global population don't have anything to lose by talking to the climatology modelers. They will be able to cause mass panic and convince both public and private sectors to throw billions into fixing the problem. I would think measuring the global population involves a lot less guessing (counting people) than climate modeling (counting the bad molecules that supposedly cause the greenhouse effect) 50 years into the future.

    --
    this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. -- Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
  43. never enough by r00t · · Score: 1

    Q: What is the meaning of life?

    A: Reproduction.

  44. suffering is natural by r00t · · Score: 1

    We are not free from natural selection and such.

    Evolution selects for successful reproduction. For humans in the modern environment, the main cause of reproductive failure is birth control. We are most likely to overcome this via mental changes, though don't be surprised to see a bit of a hormone level arms race against the birth control pill as well. In the short term, expect stupidity. It's a fitness trait if it helps reproduction (which it does), and the trait is not exactly uncommon. In the long term you can expect more effective adaptations, such as a burning desire to raise lots of children.

    We will fill the Earth. If you resist, other people will fill it. (see above) Evolution demands that we fill the Earth.

    Life will be a difficult struggle in a world packed with humans. Our future can not be any other way.

  45. your "wise reproductive habits" by r00t · · Score: 1

    This is silly. Those who restrict themselves will simply be selected against, soon being replaced by future generations who have no qualms about selfishly grabbing as much of the Earth as they can. You might as well be one of them, allowing your descendents to be part of our future.

  46. meat grown in vats will be "just as good"??? by r00t · · Score: 1

    I guess if you like hot dogs and broth-injected meat with a bit of a corn flavor, OK.

    Industry won't be producing anything like an all-natural roast.

  47. You didn't READ my reply by CranberryKing · · Score: 1

    Okay, once again, it's called compartmentalization. People below don't know what the people above have in mind, they just follow orders. Kind of like a function in a program is limited by it's scope but doesn't need to know about anything else. This concept is 101 shit so I'm a bit surprised that I have to repeat myself here.

    Organizations fund educational institutions to indoctrinate people into a particular mindset. You think you are studying science, but it's the 'science' they want you to believe. DOH issues mandates to schools to vaccinate children with drugs that create autism, ADD, &c. The school nurse thinks she is doing the child a favor. She is a minion.

    Try thinking and using some of that "free will" you talked about instead of parroting the bs you were programmed with dude. Free your mind Neo!

  48. prove it by bussdriver · · Score: 1

    8 billion living in texas using current tech? I don't believe it. soylent green? free energy? full recycling? A human farm like the matrix?

    Population control isn't happening by itself there are forces at work. (see China, who BTW just extended their 1 child per couple law; aside form abortions, infanticide, and soon GM rice. )

    You just assert that things could work in a vague texas utopia. I've never read anything that leads me to think your premise has any grounding in reality.

    Modern recorded history has largely upper classes riding on the backs of the poor and sometimes a sizable middle class sits in the middle; but still dependent upon exploiting the poorer people. Sure, something new might happen someday but not likely.

    NYC is FAR FAR FAR FROM self contained. Don't be silly. They are almost all externalized; economically, food, power, etc. Walmart is cheap because they externalize their costs and your cost to the child slave workers in another country. CHINA puts out more CO2 than the USA now; however, much of it is the USA just our sourcing their pollution (along with the jobs, etc) along with everybody else having their stuff made in China. Then we complain about them needing to fix the problem...

  49. Just be happy. . . by Fantastic+Lad · · Score: 1
    Why, oh why, did I read your post?


    Fun and profit? Goes well with your morning coffee? Finger on the pulse of the world? Distraction from the boredom of an ultimately meaningless existence?

    Why read anything on Slashdot?

    Just take comfort in the fact that I'm the one with the hat so you can go about your life in blissful normalcy.


    -FL

  50. The long term. by sidragon.net · · Score: 1

    Those who restrict themselves will simply be selected against, soon being replaced by future generations who have no qualms about selfishly grabbing as much of the Earth as they can.

    Your point is taken; I understand the evolutionary implications. The problem of resource availability remains. Organisms that reproduce too rapidly doom themselves to some form of starvation in the long term.

  51. Amazing that ppl come up with crap like this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes, the ENTIRE population could fit inside of Texas. Of course, the energy requirement just to cool them would be ENOURMOUS. Or how about moving the waste out of there? Or how do you make anything there. After all, it is not our drinking, and bathing water that chews up so much. It is manufactuering and farming that eats up water and resources.

    All in all, stats like these are TOTAL BS and absolutely WORTHLESS.