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Computers May Thwart 2010 Census

smooth wombat writes "With the Constitutionally mandated census of 2010 just around the corner, it appears the Commerce Department's attempt to use handheld computers to gather census information may not come to fruition. Originally, the contract was awarded at a cost of $596 million to Harris Corporation. However, the GAO has now estimated the revised contract, now costing $647 million, could grow to $2 billion and the equipment may still not work properly. There is consideration that the paper and pencil method might have to be employed to complete the census."

287 comments

  1. Any history buffs out there? by pegr · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Recall that Herman Hollerith came up with punched cards for the 1890 census. He founded the company that became IBM. Here's some linky goodness.

    1. Re:Any history buffs out there? by xav_jones · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yeah punched cards seem to have worked well for Florida ...

    2. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Lilith's+Heart-shape · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I remember now. I remember how it started. I can't remember yesterday. I just remember doing what they told me.

    3. Re:Any history buffs out there? by hardburn · · Score: 1

      More to the point, the 1890 census wasn't expected to be completed with pencil and paper before it was time to start the 1900 census. So what hope do they have this time around?

      --
      Not a typewriter
    4. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Creepy+Crawler · · Score: 3, Funny

      Yo Chad, whats hangin?

      --
    5. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Kozz · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I remember now. I remember how it started. I can't remember yesterday. I just remember doing what they told me. Politicians say "no" to drugs, while we pay for wars in Saudi Arabia.
      --
      I only post comments when someone on the internet is wrong.
    6. Re:Any history buffs out there? by An+ominous+Cow+art · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But now the holy dollar rules everybody's lives, gotta make a million doesn't matter who dies.

    7. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Oktober+Sunset · · Score: 1

      Well, I'm swinging, but my wife's pregnant.

    8. Re:Any history buffs out there? by sleigher · · Score: 2, Interesting

      you guys aren't really gonna heed a call to revolution.....

      --
      All points of time and space are connected.
    9. Re:Any history buffs out there? by KevinKnSC · · Score: 2, Informative

      They'll still use computers for all the tabulation at census offices. They're just talking about replacing the traditional paper-and-pencil questionnaires used by Non-Response Follow-Up Enumerators with a handheld computer. If the computers aren't ready, they'll go back to the optical scan forms like they used in 2000. As an aside, I was a NRFU Enumerator for the 2000 census, and suggest it as an excellent part-time job for students, retirees, those with flexible schedules, etc. It's good pay for being outside in the spring, talking with your neighbors, and taking part in a fundamental piece of American democracy.

    10. Re:Any history buffs out there? by cayenne8 · · Score: 1
      "you guys aren't really gonna heed a call to revolution....."

      Not if I can get a million dollars.

      :-)

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    11. Re:Any history buffs out there? by callmetheraven · · Score: 1

      Selling skin, selling god, it all looks the same on the credit card.

      --
      You can have my SIG when you pry it from my cold, dead hands.
    12. Re:Any history buffs out there? by cayenne8 · · Score: 1
      "As an aside, I was a NRFU Enumerator for the 2000 census, and suggest it as an excellent part-time job for students, retirees, those with flexible schedules, etc. It's good pay for being outside in the spring, talking with your neighbors, and taking part in a fundamental piece of American democracy."

      As long as they don't send you to the projects, or somewhere that will get you shot.

      Or..do they give extra hazard pay for those assignments? Seriously....

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    13. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You failed to invoke Godwin. You can read about it here:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_IBM#IBM.27s_role_in_WWII_and_the_Holocaust

      In summary, efficient handling of census data to track down Jews et al. earned accolades.

      "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." --George Santayana

    14. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Hadlock · · Score: 1

      Sup?

      Florida elections are only funny when you're not the one receiving annonomous "Chad Happens" bumper stickers on your car.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    15. Re:Any history buffs out there? by cheater512 · · Score: 1

      At the rate at which the US exchange rate is dropping you'll have a million dollars soon. :D

      Unfortunately it'll be worth half a euro but oh well. ;)

    16. Re:Any history buffs out there? by arb+phd+slp · · Score: 1

      (twenty) seven years of power, the corporation claw. The rich control the government, the media, the law.

      --
      There's a perfect xkcd for my sig but I'm too lazy to look it up. sudo someone go find it.
    17. Re:Any history buffs out there? by arb+phd+slp · · Score: 2, Informative
      I enumerated in the projects. Our entire team went out as a big group and we did whole blocks all at once.

      The trick is to find the nosiest elderly neighbor (there's always one) and use her or him as your informant.

      It was a great job. I was a senior in college saving up for grad school last Census. Up to that point, it was the highest paying job I'd ever had. I learned a lot about statistics and real estate; knowledge that has come in handy since.

      --
      There's a perfect xkcd for my sig but I'm too lazy to look it up. sudo someone go find it.
    18. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Z34107 · · Score: 1

      It's all how you look at it.

      When the dollar is strong, zomg we have a trade deficit!

      When the dollar is weak, zomg we're closing the trade deficit!

      --
      DATABASE WOW WOW
    19. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Keen+Anthony · · Score: 1

      Good call. It's about time someone made a Queensrÿche reference on Slashdot, and a post Operation: Mindcrime one to boot.

    20. Re:Any history buffs out there? by arb+phd+slp · · Score: 1

      "you guys aren't really gonna heed a call to revolution....."

      Not if I can get a million dollars.

      For a price I'd do about anything except pull the trigger. For that I'd need a pretty good cause.
      --
      There's a perfect xkcd for my sig but I'm too lazy to look it up. sudo someone go find it.
    21. Re:Any history buffs out there? by Skater · · Score: 1

      That is my absolute favorite album. I'm surprised by how many other people recognized the lyrics. :)

    22. Re:Any history buffs out there? by bergeron76 · · Score: 1

      Harris Semiconductor is based out of Florida.
      Reliable Polling data from a Florida Corporation?

      No thanks.

      --
      Don't think that a small group of dedicated individuals can't change the world. It's the only thing that ever has.
    23. Re:Any history buffs out there? by knarf · · Score: 1

      Who do you trust when everyone's a crook?

      --
      --frank[at]unternet.org
    24. Re:Any history buffs out there? by smithmc · · Score: 1

      "you guys aren't really gonna heed a call to revolution....."


      Not if I can get a million dollars.

      For a price I'd do about anything except pull the trigger. For that I'd need a pretty good cause. But would you buy an AK-47 for your best friend? Business, the American way?
      --
      Downmodding is the refuge of the weak. Don't downmod, make a better argument!
  2. Anyone have any idea... by Darundal · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...what accounts for the differences in the estimate and the cost? What cost(s) were underestimated?

    1. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Brian+Gordon · · Score: 1

      The cost of government. I could probably throw this thing together myself in my spare time in a month, but when you bring in executives and contracts and managers, everything gets muddled up.

    2. Re:Anyone have any idea... by CaptainPatent · · Score: 1

      Anyone have any idea what accounts for the differences in the estimate and the cost? Um... the US government?!
      --
      Well, back to rejecting software patent applications.
    3. Re:Anyone have any idea... by petermgreen · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Government departments often have regulations that require them to put contracts out to tender and give them to the lowest bidder to prevent people handing out government contracts to thier friends.

      The problem is if they put them out for bidding as fixed price contracts they probablly wouldn't get any bids and if they did those bids would be very high. So the bids are only estimates. Of course this makes the bidding a farce as everyone tries to put in the lowest estimate they can and sponge more money later once the governement department is locked in.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
    4. Re:Anyone have any idea... by jo42 · · Score: 1

      a) Sheer incompetence.
      b) Sheer greed to milk the Gooberment contracts for all they are worth.
      c) All of the above.

    5. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Gat0r30y · · Score: 1

      The impression I got was that it takes ~ an hour to get acquainted with the systems. Apparently some of the people in their test group just couldn't figure it out. And, since this is the government, instead of fixing the problem by requiring individuals who are qualified and competent to administer the census, they are gonna try to change the hardware and software of the device to I suppose fit their needs better? Yea, that sounds about right.

      --
      Prediction: The real iPhone killer is going to be sex robots from Japan. Think about it.
    6. Re:Anyone have any idea... by homey+of+my+owney · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is what decision by committee yields.

    7. Re:Anyone have any idea... by modecx · · Score: 0, Troll

      This is what decision by committee yields.

      Which is why I've always said that the monotheistic God of certain religions can't be one particular god, but a committee of gods in a perpetual circle jerk. What other severely screwed-up creative force could have come up with things like the duck-billed platypus--or Jack Thompson?

      --
      Constitutional rights may be respected, repealed, or modified; but they must never be ignored.
    8. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Urza9814 · · Score: 2, Informative

      True story I was just told today: Girl working in Procurement at a US Army Depot is sent a list of parts needed for a radio. The radio is supposed to cost $30 each. She brings the list to her superior officer to get it OKed, and he notices the resistors listed are +/- 5% tolerance. He decides that the army deserves the very best and changes it to +/- 2%. It then has to be sent to his superior too, who makes the same decision and changes all the resistors to +/- 1%. In the end, the radios cost $250 each.

    9. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      yeah, i used to be a contractor on that project. 1st problem was that the Census dept basically said, "Don't ask us, you figure it out". 2nd problem was the contract was awarded to Harris and Accenture - trying to get those two groups to work together in any sort of organized fashion was impossible. 3rd, its government.

    10. Re:Anyone have any idea... by shadow349 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      So the bids are only estimates.
      I've done work on construction estimates that were of similar (~$250M) size that were submitted as "GMP" - Guaranteed Max Price. Yeah, Change Orders will pad that somewhat, and there is some contingency, but together they won't be more than 15%.

      Of course this makes the bidding a farce as everyone tries to put in the lowest estimate
      Which is why I've always felt that the process should pick the second lowest bid. It's trivial to shoot for the bottom ... it's impossible to shoot for second from the bottom.
    11. Re:Anyone have any idea... by porkchop_d_clown · · Score: 2, Funny

      ...And, since this is the government, instead of fixing the problem by requiring individuals who are qualified and competent to administer the census...

      And, what, exactly, do you have against equal opportunity?

    12. Re:Anyone have any idea... by NewbieProgrammerMan · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yay for non-technical decision makers making technical decisions!

      My favorite procurement/supply story is from a guy I worked with in the Navy; we needed a switch for some system that required replacement parts to be some super-special reliability grade, so he got the part number and called up the company from home. "Hi this is Billy Joe Ray Bob's electronics supply in Podunk, Lousiana; I need a BR-549 limit switch, how much are they?" The answer was something like $12.

      He calls back a week later as Petty Officer so-and-so from the USS Neveryoumind, and then the BR-549 limit switch costs $349. Apparently the super-special reliability grade sticker they put on it after they take it out of the bin costs $337.

      --
      [b.belong('us') for b in bases if b.owner() == 'you']
    13. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Dahamma · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Which is why I've always felt that the process should pick the second lowest bid. It's trivial to shoot for the bottom ... it's impossible to shoot for second from the bottom.

      Unless there are only two bidders.

    14. Re:Anyone have any idea... by jammo · · Score: 1

      Finally a succinct answer to a question that has (at the back of my mind) bugged me for a while. Guess I read too many bad newspapers.

    15. Re:Anyone have any idea... by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      However, the GAO has now estimated the revised contract, now costing $647 million, could grow to $2 billion
      $2 billion sounds rather more than $250M and even that is not a gauranteed maximum here!

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
    16. Re:Anyone have any idea... by cayenne8 · · Score: 1
      "$2 billion sounds rather more than $250M and even that is not a gauranteed maximum here!"

      You must be new to government contracting.

      :-)

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    17. Re:Anyone have any idea... by DerekLyons · · Score: 2, Informative

      That would be a bullshit story - as the Army buys complete radios, not components. It would also be bullshit because when the Army does buy components, its buys them to MIL-SPEC, no more and no less.

    18. Re:Anyone have any idea... by SourceVisigoth · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I could buy that argument if it were possible to recruit, train, and manage 800,000+ people who have decent technical skills for a low paying, short term job. Keep in mind that that most non-response follow-up enumerators work for 2-3 months tops, make around $12/hour, are part-time, and have no particular interest in data integrity or security.

      The decennial census absolutely needs to be a turn-key operation for the tens of thousands of local recruiters and trainers. When you have an organization that expands from 20,000 people to nearly a million for the span of a few months, you simply can't demand that they "Just hire smarter people!". People with good technical skills and no other job/commitment just don't exist in those numbers.

    19. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Urza9814 · · Score: 1

      I dunno. It was told to me by someone I consider fairly honest, and the girl working in the depot was his sister...and it was also quite a few years ago. Possibly 40 years ago, if not more. But yes, I suppose it could be BS. But then again, this is the same person who has (and I have seen) 17,000 resistors that he bought army surplus a couple years ago, so obviously they were using them for something.

    20. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Hadlock · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Schools also buy complete tables, chairs, etc, but that doesn't stop them from specifying X years more warranty on them than already comes from the factory. When ordering radios you say "we want them to last X amount" i.e. better transistors and the manufacturer says "sure, we can do that (for X + 45% markup)" and then charge the government for any additional holdups involved in building and testing a non-standard product.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    21. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Jake73 · · Score: 1

      Yep. I've done work for clients where the client's client mandated that all resistors be 1%. This included, for example, resistors used as pull-ups and LED current-limiting resistors.

      Ridiculous. Of course, the resistors don't really add much to the cost. It's the gratuitous use of industrial parts and other things that raise costs.

    22. Re:Anyone have any idea... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Depending on the radio and use that may have been a good decision.
      Having worked on equipment that a 5% tolerance may cause a very expensive crash.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    23. Re:Anyone have any idea... by bigtrike · · Score: 1

      So if a switch breaks, they buy a whole new radio?

    24. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Disclaimer: I work for Census, on another project on this contract.

      I don't know where your information is coming from, but it's not true. My boss mentioned she heard it on the radio this morning and was wondering who said that and why.

      The problem is essentially that the software doesn't work the way it's supposed to, for a multitude of reasons. Our training and manuals are very good - I'm reviewing some now, and I was impressed with how well they explain the software and procedures. Our debriefing notes from the people that worked on operations that are already completed for the 2008 Dress Rehearsal reflect very few problems with the training/manuals.

      Also, by the way, when you are hiring 500,000 people (yes!) who probably don't already have full-time jobs (because they don't have time to work on the Census), you sort of have to plan for getting people with low educations and the like.

    25. Re:Anyone have any idea... by davolfman · · Score: 1

      Hire retail merchandisers then. They almost all have to use computers on a daily basis, many have been made to use crappy handhelds for data entry before, and they're used to working for 2 or more companies part-time and dovetailing for more hours. They might have to pay a bit more in some regions, say at least $15/hr in California, but they really are a pretty optimum pool of labor.

    26. Re:Anyone have any idea... by DerekLyons · · Score: 0, Redundant

      Except that MIL-SPEC is a commonly used standard, even outside of the US military. Try again.

    27. Re:Anyone have any idea... by DerekLyons · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      It is BS, period. And did I not note that they did buy components? (For repair parts mostly.)

    28. Re:Anyone have any idea... by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      You'll note I did say they did buy components, but those are for repair parts not for assembling a radio from scratch.

    29. Re:Anyone have any idea... by Hadlock · · Score: 1

      Congratulations, you're either an excellent troll with nothing better to do, or are the most consistently negative person on slashdot, looking at your other comments, who ads absolutely nothing to the discussion. Kill yourself now. Mods, feel free to mod this to oblivion, but first I challenge you to look at his posting record and mod him accordingly first.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    30. Re:Anyone have any idea... by lucifuge31337 · · Score: 1

      Which is why I've always felt that the process should pick the second lowest bid. It's trivial to shoot for the bottom ... it's impossible to shoot for second from the bottom.
      Really?

      Company A works with partner company B. Here's the phone conversation: "Hey CEO B, this is CEO A. You see the gubment contract they just put out the RFP on? You want to take low or realistic this time?"
      --
      Do not fold, spindle or mutilate.
    31. Re:Anyone have any idea... by cgenman · · Score: 1

      The problem is if they put them out for bidding as fixed price contracts they probablly wouldn't get any bids and if they did those bids would be very high.

      And the difference between a high bid and routine 400% cost overruns is...?

      "Yeah, that Hamburger you wanted? Well, the menu says one dollar, but you're paying us two now, and another two when we hand it to you. Which will be in a month, maybe two... You'll still be hungry then, right?"

  3. Open source by Missing_dc · · Score: 3, Funny

    The bloat is occurring because the project is not open-source, it could be done for pennies, but would take 20 years to complete.

    --
    How amazed would you be to suddenly find that you just forgot what I wrote and you needed to reread my post.... again.
    1. Re:Open source by KevMar · · Score: 2, Informative

      I have this gut feeling that it would only compound the issue.

      The article says they only had a 1% failure rate in field tests. I bet the crew of 20 to 30 year old tech guys had no issues with it. They under esimated the end users. Yes, some systems are very simple but you still find people that can't figure them out. Not only were more computers "breaking", the support calls would have been greater then expected.

      With electronic, you now have to pay for the support of that electronic component.

      --
      Im a gamer, not a grammer major. This post is full of spelling and grammer mistakes.
    2. Re:Open source by aj50 · · Score: 1

      With electronic, you now have to pay for the support of that electronic component.

      You have to pay to support whatever system you use, irrespective of whether or not it involves electronic components.

      If you had a system where people had to fill out forms, you'd need to provide support for people who didn't understand the forms and you'd also have to have people to check that submitted forms were correctly filled in.

      --
      I wish to remain anomalous
  4. 1% error by Red+Jesus · · Score: 4, Insightful

    He also said the computers actually are easy to use, with a failure rate of less than 1 percent when tested in the field.
    One percent of three hundred million is three million.
    1. Re:1% error by eepok · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Ya, people are really bad when it comes to big numbers. I was a part of a research study as an undergraduate with the following premise:

      You're on a jury for a murder case with the scenario that a tan/brown man seen running away from a murder scene on a college campus. There was not enough of the attacker's DNA at the scene, but they were able to extract a DNA derivative that has matched that of a tan man in custody. Given that this derivative has a 99.9% successful rate, do you feel comfortable convicting the man in custody.

      I was the only one in my group of 12 to say "No, I will not convict based on this evidence." No one else understood that .1% = 1/1000. Nor did they realize that our university alone had 20,000+ people on the campus at any time let alone that it was in the middle of a city of 200,000+.

      Most people know what "fifty" is. Many know what "one hundred" is. Few understand what "one thousand" is. Too few understand the effects of millions, billions, and trillions.
      There's no way I'd convict with a .1% error, there's no way I'd accept a 1% error in the business of millions.

    2. Re:1% error by FamineMonk · · Score: 1

      using handheld computers to track and tally the millions of Americans who do not return the census forms mailed out by the government. The Census Bureau plans to hire and train nearly 600,000 temporary workers to help. And 1% of 600,000 is 6000.
    3. Re:1% error by Sciros · · Score: 1

      One percent of three hundred million I see you have already conducted the census! Can I split the $650 million with you?
      --
      I like basketball!!1!
    4. Re:1% error by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Alright, so when the test determines every last one of the 20000 tan/brown men on your campus to be guilty, then the twenty who are actually innocent will have a right to complain. Meanwhile, you're holding up the trial telling everyone "no, we'll keep this man locked up until we can get another few nines on that figure, all other logic but math be damned".

    5. Re:1% error by SatanicPuppy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      1% is pretty good in the real world...Most hardware failure rates for hand held devices are much higher than that.

      As far as 99.9% certainty...It's almost impossible to get that good in the real world. What would be your standard for guilt? Eyewitnesses, fingerprints, photos; for the most part they're not 99.9% accurate for identification purposes.

      It's an ugly inductive world. You're never going to be 100%

      --
      ad logicam Claiming a proposition is false because it was presented as the conclusion of a fallacious argument.
    6. Re:1% error by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      He also said the computers actually are easy to use, with a failure rate of less than 1 percent when tested in the field.

      One percent of three hundred million is three million.

      So what? They aren't buying three hundred million computers. Probably a few hundred thousand, tops.
       
      Further, pushing reliability from 99.00 to 99.9 cost a great deal of money - probably more than just buying the extra computers to cover the estimated failure rate.
    7. Re:1% error by VoltCurve · · Score: 0

      "You're on a jury for a murder case with the scenario that a tan/brown man" Guilty

    8. Re:1% error by Hadlock · · Score: 1

      and was screaming his head off the week before about how he was gonna "kill the b_tch". That 99.9% match goes a LONG way toward removing reasonable doubt
       
      Either you've never seen "12 angry men", or you're making a really subtle reference to that movie/story. I'm hoping it's the latter, 'cause otherwise you're an idiot.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    9. Re:1% error by eepok · · Score: 1

      That's the brilliance of the scenario. It gives you one clue to the identity of the person running away from the scene and the 99.9% statistic. It's an experiment in the capability of people to translate statistics into tangible numbers. If there's 200,000 people in the city, then statistically speaking, there's 200 people around that would have the same exact test result. If half are brown/tan then 100 that match the description-- if the person who committed the crime was tan/brown. One was brought in and tested. With at least 99 other people in the area fitting the exact description, there's not enough evidence to rationally convict.

      The results were pretty disappointing.

    10. Re:1% error by eepok · · Score: 2, Informative

      Of course, we'll never have 100%. I'd never expect that. But with no other evidence, it's just not enough to convict.

    11. Re:1% error by Have+Brain+Will+Rent · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I explained to a friend what efficacy figures like 99% meant for birth control. She (yeah I was explaining BC to a woman) freaked - she had never really understood just how bad the odds were (assuming you didn't want kids) when something was 99% - and she is a fairly smart thoughtful person so the average person probably has not got a clue... welcome to parenthood!

      --
      The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny - Aesop
    12. Re:1% error by espiesp · · Score: 0

      The real problem with trying to quanitify these numbers at all is the problem with figuring out what they ACTUALLY mean. 99% effective - Birth Control Does that mean that it doesn't work for 1/100 people? Does that mean that it doesn't work for 1/100 sexual encounters? Does that mean that it doesn't work for 1/100 male partners? These things greatly affect the ACTUAL real world reliablilty and are rarely mentioned.

    13. Re:1% error by vonmeth · · Score: 1

      Alright. Lets break it down further. Middle of a city of 200,000+. We automatically must cut that in half, since it was a man (and I'm being generous, as usually women out number men, if I remember correctly). Now, if we further break that down to cut out people the young and the very old. Lets say 1-10 years old, and 70-100. Now that is again, will have to be based on an assumption but that will cut it down a good amount. "Tan man" is pretty vague, but we might be able to rule out a lot of different races based on how well the given discription was. We further will have to cut down people that are at home, at work, or have a verifiable excuse that they were not at the scene of the crime. Are you starting to see that that .1% chance has just was significantly reduced?

    14. Re:1% error by GryMor · · Score: 1

      Given a population of 100 thousand, a 'reliability' of 99.9% and the knowledge that there is precisely 1 person who is actually guilty lets box this out:

                1 Guilty
      99,999 Innocent

      If you test the guilty party, there is a 0.1% chance of a type 2 error (actually guilty, test indicates he's innocent)
      If you test a non guilty person, there is a 0.1% chance of a type 1 error (actually innocent, test indicates he's guilty)
      If you have a person and the test indicates they are guilty, the chance that they are actually guilty is only 1%, that is 99% of the time, he will be innocent.

      Are you really willing to condemn someone on a 1% chance that they are actually guilty?

      --
      Realities just a bunch of bits.
    15. Re:1% error by stdarg · · Score: 1

      Was the man in custody randomly selected from the population? If not (and I doubt that he was, even in this hypothetical example), the "big numbers" don't enter into this problem.

      Also, you're completely ignoring how the failure rate is broken down into false positives and false negatives. Perhaps there's even a third failure state of "inconclusive" that the test can produce.

      What if you were told that there was a 99.9% success rate (true positive and true negative), a 0.09999% false negative rate (as in, he really is guilty but the test is negative), and a 0.00001% false positive rate (as in, he is not guilty but the test is positive)?

    16. Re:1% error by stdarg · · Score: 1

      You can't just guess the rates of type 1 and 2 errors, can you?

    17. Re:1% error by GryMor · · Score: 1

      I wasn't guessing, they specified the combined failure rate, which in that population would lead to 1000 wrong statements if everyone was tested. Even in the case where the type 1 error rate was 100%, the type 2 error rate would still need to be around .1% to account for the rest of the errors (though at that point, testing guilty would be an 100% indication of innocence).

      --
      Realities just a bunch of bits.
    18. Re:1% error by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, but a 1% hardware failure rate does not necessarily mean a 1% error in the data, especially if there are backups involved.

    19. Re:1% error by smithmc · · Score: 1

      He also said the computers actually are easy to use, with a failure rate of less than 1 percent when tested in the field.


      One percent of three hundred million is three million. And why would they need three hundred million computers? Are they handing one out to every man, woman, and child in America? TFA says they will be hiring 600,000 workers for the census - even if every one of them is getting a computer, that's 6,000 failures, not three million.
      --
      Downmodding is the refuge of the weak. Don't downmod, make a better argument!
    20. Re:1% error by Chasqui · · Score: 1

      Dude, she's not .01 percent pregnant.

      --
      my cube has a window...
    21. Re:1% error by eepok · · Score: 1

      I know this won't be read, but I feel compelled to reply being the person that others have come to for advice. The 99% statistic for birth control refers to it working, 100% as intended, for 99 out of 100 uses. If we're talking about the pill, then one must refer a full month's nightly doses as "one use". So, if there's 99% confidence in the pill, then, probability says to expect it not to work 1/100 months (over a period of time much longer than 100 months).

      Condoms are a different story. If the condom package says "99% effective", that means your soldiers are held at the gate 99/100 times you use the condom perfectly. According some research by planned parenthood, though, only 60% (or so?) of condom uses fall within perfect usage. That doesn't even put into consideration potential manufacturing flaws.

      Moral of the story: Don't rely on someone else to bring and use birth control, get tested yearly if you're active, see a doctor for ANY reason (don't delay), and if you wouldn't kiss it, don't poke it.

  5. wow... ideal role for the XO by advocate_one · · Score: 2, Interesting

    of course do a more businesslike version with a larger keyboard... but the XO with custom census gathering application saving the data off onto flash drives would have been perfect... pity the timescale is a bit short now...

    --
    Donald 'Duck' Dunn: We had a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.
    1. Re:wow... ideal role for the XO by FamineMonk · · Score: 1

      Hell there are lots of different things you could do. Buy N810s write custom software for them its something you could easily fit in to your bag or pocket. Hell if you had problems you could just have them bring 2 or 3 with them just to be sure they always have one thats working.

      This all seems really stupid when you think about the fact that a few people + some hardware could come up with something in a basement. $2 Billion, God Bless America.

    2. Re:wow... ideal role for the XO by adolf · · Score: 1

      Um. Uh.

      Hey, kids:

      The portable hardware probably isn't the difficult part, here. For fuck's sake: I've got more than enough horsepower in my 4-year-old Palm Zire 71 to organize, contain and transmit the output of one census worker.

      Which is cool, I guess. But all of the overpowered portable hardware in the world will not change the fact that the software and back end required to make it useful DOES NOT EXIST.

    3. Re:wow... ideal role for the XO by FamineMonk · · Score: 1

      I was under the impression that they were having hardware failures. If it is in fact a software problem then thats a different matter. But still 2 billion sounds way overpriced for something that still might not work correctly.

    4. Re:wow... ideal role for the XO by glwtta · · Score: 1

      wow... ideal role for the XO

      Yeah, Tigh gets shit done (when he isn't hitting the bottle, that is).

      --
      sic transit gloria mundi
  6. Horrible... by Stanislav_J · · Score: 2

    How could we possibly do a census with paper and pencil? I mean, we've never done it that way before, right?

    --
    "Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket." -- Eric Hoffer
    1. Re:Horrible... by JonTurner · · Score: 2, Informative

      I agree with your sentiment, however the problem with the "modern" census is, for many citizens, it goes far beyond the simple enumeration of all citizens proscribed by the Constitution and has become a multipage survey asking questions about plumbing, commute times, what languages are spoken at home, who raises your children, where you work, etc. It's so extensive, the government estimates it will take a person 38 minutes to complete the survey!
      See for yourself: http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/d02p.pdf

    2. Re:Horrible... by Bitsy+Boffin · · Score: 1

      Mod that man up! There is NOTHING wrong with a paper and pencil census. In fact, it's probably the cheapest and most efficient method.

      I live in New Zealand, now admittedly we are a very small country with only around 4 million people, but our recent paper and pencil census worked just fine. For a few weeks a bunch of temporary staff went to every house in the country and hand delivered sufficient census forms for the people living in said house On census night (the census is to be a snapshot of the population on a specific night) everybody filled out their census forms. And then the census people visited every house again and picked up the forms.

      Once they get back to the statistics office they get run through the reading machine.

      It's not like voting, you don't need the results quickly, it could take a year to collate the results if necessary. It would be such a long drawn out process if the census takers had to go around to every PERSON and take this 20 or 30 minute survey with each and every one, it wouldn't be a snapshot on a single day, it'd lose effectiveness.

      As for people complaining there is too much information asked... well, sorry but if you want your government to provide the services which people like you need, then they need to know some stuff about you all and the census is the best way to do that.

      --
      NZ Electronics Enthusiasts: Check out my Trade Me Listings
    3. Re:Horrible... by idontgno · · Score: 1

      a very small country with only around 4 million people, but our recent paper and pencil census worked just fine

      Except, perhaps, for that precision issue.

      But yeah, stacks of paper truckin' down the freeway have pretty good bandwidth, which was one of the major shortfalls in the electronic census thingie TFA was talking about.

      --
      Welcome to the Panopticon. Used to be a prison, now it's your home.
    4. Re:Horrible... by SourceVisigoth · · Score: 1

      I don't really get why so many people see this as a problem. They aren't collecting those data just for the hell of it. For all the problems people have with government spending and waste, I don't see how using statistical methods and sound research to make decisions with billions of dollars at stake is a bad thing.

      Are governments just supposed to throw darts at a board when deciding where and when to invest resources now? In reality, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. If they make an effort to gain solid information and make intelligent decisions, they're branded as Big Brother. If they just spend money randomly they're labeled incompetent and lazy bureaucrats. For the cost of 2-3 more days in Iraq I'd say making sure the census gets done right is a damned good investment.

    5. Re:Horrible... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Two reasons:

      #1) It's nobody's damned business what private citizens do with their lives.
      #2) The 8th Amendment precludes the government from making most of the "decisions with billions of dollars at stake" such as entitlement programs. But that old document hasn't mattered for more than 50 years.

    6. Re:Horrible... by tacocat · · Score: 1

      In that case whey don't they just email everyone their username/password for a website and let us fill it in ourselves. And take the ones that can't do it and have a manual cencus performance on the remaining residents. You'll probably end up with a pretty good correlation to the residents IQ or education at the same time.

      Sure, these things get expensive. I'm sure that during the time that Harris made the bid, to the time now, there have been no additional requirements made upon the system design or implementation.

  7. Are you serious? by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Originally, the contract was awarded at a cost of $596 million to Harris Corporation. However, the GAO has now estimated the revised contract, now costing $647 million, could grow to $2 billion and the equipment may still not work properly.

    1.4 billion is one hell of an overrun...and after all that, the equipment may still not work properly?

    Is the Harris Corporation currently hiring? I'd like to get me some of that boondoggle.

    --
    ____

    ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

    1. Re:Are you serious? by moosesocks · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The more pressing question on my mind is why they haven't been sued into oblivion. How can you seriously get away with that?

      --
      -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
    2. Re:Are you serious? by Hatta · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Corruption.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    3. Re:Are you serious? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      But also in the article:

      But interviews, congressional testimony and government reports describe an agency that was unprepared to manage a $600 million contract for the handheld computers that will be vital. Census officials are being blamed for a poor job spelling out technical requirements to the contractor, Florida-based Harris Corp.

      The requirements weren't good, so the product needs to be redesigned and rebuilt in a much tighter time frame. Costs are always going to go way up when that happens.
    4. Re:Are you serious? by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      one hell of an overrun ... Is the Harris Corporation currently hiring? I'd like to get me some of that boondoggle.

      Are you sure you want either "Harris Co." or a big gap on your resume?

    5. Re:Are you serious? by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The more pressing question on my mind is why they haven't been sued into oblivion. How can you seriously get away with that?

      Something this large and complex probably results in "gripe room" for both sides. The company can probably cite delays or problems with information, personal, staff testing, etc. that the gov't was supposed to supply but was either late with or bungled. And there's probably some vague contract wording that can be used as a weapon by both sides. It's an age-old dance with these kinds of contracts.

    6. Re:Are you serious? by twrake · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Facing corruption is not was politicians do. Census is not just counting heads it is also collection of a log of other (non constitutionally mandated information) the government had made this a constantly complex task. On the other hand the work is farmed out to workers low on the political food chain. And supervised by nearly the same type of people.

      In Pennsylvania you need to consider the census field workers and their equipment but, mainly you need to consider their poor supervision. For the 1990 census I had three (count em three) census mappers (geo people) to my house one of the oldest in the neighborhood each one was "lost" in my opinion. Those you live in the linear grid urban street areas are lost in the suburban areas. But most of all these people looked like urban political types lost in suburbia. One of the "suprises" of the 1990 census was there were more people in Philadelphia than what was predicted. My conclusion they are just better at counting people in their own neighborhoods and don't care about cheating the rest of the state our of their fair share.

      Given an ever expanding scope of the census survey, a government not really in the computer age, and under supervised workers I don't think the census will add up.

    7. Re:Are you serious? by moosesocks · · Score: 1

      Alright. Let's find the names of the politicians responsible, and make sure that their names are widely circulated.

      Then put them on trial.

      Then put the company on trial.

      From a technological/computational perspective, recording census data might possibly be one of the simplest tasks imaginable.

      No remotely sane company on the planet would hire an external contractor, and then take an inexplicable 3-fold cost increase in stride.

      --
      -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
    8. Re:Are you serious? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As someone else touched on, the contract was probably time and materials, not a fixed cost contract, meaning that the scope of the work may be greater now that when the estimate was developed. Some government organizations are great at scope creep, as well as underestimating what they need in the SOW/RFP, and occasionally the initial scope is deliberately minimized in an attempt to increase the chance of internally receiving funding for the project. I don't know that this is true in this case, but a project cost significantly greater than the initial estimate isn't always corruption or poor project management.

    9. Re:Are you serious? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, it's not corruption.

      It's "government business as usual" in the good ol' US of A.

    10. Re:Are you serious? by khallow · · Score: 1

      They probablty were helped by indecision on the government's part. It's common for such programs to change from year to year. Cost overruns might be a result of requirement changes as well. Course the smart contractor might be able to bribe someone to change the requirements in an expensive way.

    11. Re:Are you serious? by TheVelvetFlamebait · · Score: 1

      Prove it. Give some evidence. Cite some precedence, preferably not one of the majority of cases that are usually cited in these situations, where hyperbolic heresay, circular reasoning, and unmitigated bias/paranoia make up the majority of the argument.

      Perhaps the Government doesn't want to alienate business by suing for every mistake, especially when they require so many contracts, and their multinational corporations hold up the economy. It would be mostly consistent with US policy so far, certainly more so than corruption.

      --
      You know, there is a difference between trolling and pointing out the flaws in your reasoning. Just saying.
    12. Re:Are you serious? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you had bothered to RFTA, it says that the government agency was to blame for the delays and overruns due to their inexperience working with large contracts and outside vendors.

    13. Re:Are you serious? by aurispector · · Score: 1

      The contract started at nearly half a billion and could balloon to four times that amount? What did they do, start by reinventing enigma-era bombes and develop from there? This is a classic scam-the-government operation all the way. Retailers commonly use rugged hand held devices for inventory control and I'd bet with a bit of software tweaking you could use one of those for census data collection. The whole thing makes me wonder why I bother paying my taxes instead of just standing on the street handing out Benjamins to random strangers.

      Corruption is too mild a word by far.

      --
      I have mod points. The reign of terror begins now.
    14. Re:Are you serious? by Hatta · · Score: 1

      Corruption is US policy so far.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    15. Re:Are you serious? by TheVelvetFlamebait · · Score: 1

      That is exactly what I'm talking about. Thank you for giving me such a nicely-wrapped example of my grievances. The absence of a lawsuit we know is because of corruption. Why? Because the US government is corrupt. How do we know the US government is corrupt? Because of X example of corruption. How do we know that that piece of heresay was a result of corruption? Because the US government is corrupt. And so on, and so on, one shoddy piece of crap piled on-top of another masquerading as a foundation for an argument. It's self-justifying bullshit designed to absolve people of their responsibility to keep their own democratic government representing their own views.

      --
      You know, there is a difference between trolling and pointing out the flaws in your reasoning. Just saying.
    16. Re:Are you serious? by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      The requirements weren't good, so the product needs to be redesigned and rebuilt in a much tighter time frame. Costs are always going to go way up when that happens.

      That's the fault of the project team. Who spelled out what was needed? Did the contracter suspect it wouldn't meet their needs, but did it anyway knowing they'd get 4X the money because what they asked for wouldn't actually work? The problem with all these projects is that they are in the hands of people that have no qualifications and no responsibility. They get appointed to political positions or are government employees for life that are told they have to do something they don't want to do and don't know how to do. When it fails, it's the fault of the "government". But the private companies see the train wreck coming, tell no one, and hope they get more profit out of it. The solution is to have all contracts be performance based. If it doesn't perform the task, they don't get paid. If they get crap requirements from the government, they had better find out the real requirements, because if it doesn't work, they won't get paid. More contracts punish those that happily supply items they know won't work and you'll see two things, one, people will stop bidding on stupid governmental contracts to cure cancer or get a handheld in the hands of every Census employee with a working database for all the data. Second, when they are awarded, they will be on time and on budget.

    17. Re:Are you serious? by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      If you had bothered to RFTA, it says that the government agency was to blame for the delays and overruns due to their inexperience working with large contracts and outside vendors.

      Perhaps it is the outside vendors that are used to taking advantage of the government? I've seen government contracts. We've won bids, seen the contracts, then handed them back and said "thanks but no thanks, give it to the next on the list." Of course, they next on the list was happy to take it and didn't get done what the contract covered. In some cases, you get punished. In others, like this case, you get rewarded for not doing what the government wanted. It isn't about what the government asked for, but what the government wanted, and that was probably obvious but not clear, so the companies with lots of experience fleecing the government did it again.

  8. Go back to the 2000 census methods by davidwr · · Score: 1

    At least this way, you can say the 2010 census used proven techniques.

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
  9. Another waste of money by Harmonious+Botch · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Between driver's licenses, utilities, medicare, social security, public school enrollment, arrests, and other records, a good statistician should be able to get an answer that is close enough. To double check the results, canvass a few dozen randomly chosen counties, then adjust accordingly.

    But there is no reason that counting people should cost over half a billion dollars.

    We should be able to contract this out. Offer maybe a mere 50 million dollars to the entrant that can produce the best results. Anyone can enter. They do their counting by whatever legal method they choose. THEN the census dept does their random counties, and whoever is closest on those counties gets paid, and their results for the whole country are used.
    BTW, I'm assuming here that a census should be just counting heads; that all of the other questions that the census people ask, such as level of education, are none of their business. The constitution requires that people be counted. The goal was to ensure proportional representation. It does not require all of the intrusive questions that they ask now.

    1. Re:Another waste of money by drinkypoo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      BTW, I'm assuming here that a census should be just counting heads; that all of the other questions that the census people ask, such as level of education, are none of their business. The constitution requires that people be counted. The goal was to ensure proportional representation. It does not require all of the intrusive questions that they ask now.

      You are not required to answer any other question on the census, either.

      You can really just say "nine people live here, go away" and they will.

      All that information IS necessary for the government to provide all the services they provide today in a reasonable and efficient manner.

      Unfortunately, it would also require that those in charge be interested in reason or efficiency. All they want to do is separate you from money.

      So, I agree, but only in that the government should get their nose out of places it doesn't belong in a more general sense. Unfortunately, we could probably argue about what those things are all day.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:Another waste of money by Seakip18 · · Score: 1

      We should be able to contract this out. Offer maybe a mere 50 million dollars to the entrant that can produce the best results Unfortunately, since it's a gov't contract, I believe the mark up of 300% is required. Even if it's the lowest bid.
      --
      import system.cool.Sig;
    3. Re:Another waste of money by Red+Jesus · · Score: 1

      You can really just say "nine people live here, go away" and they will.

      All that information IS necessary for the government to provide all the services they provide today in a reasonable and efficient manner.

      Really? The government can make reasonable and efficient decisions without knowing statistics about its own citizenry? I realize that police can keep people safe without knowing what's in the trunk of my car, but that doesn't mean Congress can make sweeping decisions for a country of 300 million people without knowing large-scale trends that you don't get just by walking the streets of your constituency. Many Americans are concerned that the lowest income quintile keeps getting poorer. If the Federal government is going to do anything to help these people along, it needs to know a little more about them. How well-educated are they? Which regions do they live in? Are they predominantly of a particular ethnicity? Asking Congress to make decisions about America's future without letting them know about America's current state is like asking an engineer to build a bridge without telling him the strengths of the materials he has to work with.

      If you think Congress makes dumb decisions, then complain about the dumb decisions. But don't cut off their access to information that could help them make better decisions.

    4. Re:Another waste of money by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 2, Interesting

      ". Many Americans are concerned that the lowest income quintile keeps getting poorer."

      This is because of the fallacy of believing the pie is only so big, and has to be divided equitably. However, the pie is actually variable in size, and all one has to do is increase the size of the pie by working to increase one's proportion of the pie.

      There are plenty of unemployed people unwilling to work at any wage under a certain amount, even though they aren't qualified to do any work that provides such a wage as they desire. Meanwhile there are millions of people streaming over the border to work at wages that no American would work, because they make more here working for wages that nobody else will, than they could in their own country.

      The people holding signs that say "Will work for food" are liars. They won't work, for anything, they just want a free handout. And many are willing to oblige.

      I know, because I was once one of them.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    5. Re:Another waste of money by Moridin42 · · Score: 1

      All that information IS necessary for the government to provide all the services they provide today in a reasonable and efficient manner.


      Really? The government can make reasonable and efficient decisions without knowing statistics about its own citizenry? I realize that police can keep people safe without knowing what's in the trunk of my car, but that doesn't mean Congress can make sweeping decisions for a country of 300 million people without knowing large-scale trends that you don't get just by walking the streets of your constituency.


      Uh.. saying that the information is necessary for efficient supply of services isn't suggesting that the information is not necessary to the efficient supply of services. I should be amazed at having to point out that "IS" does not equal "IS NOT" in meaning.
      --
      I don't expect morality, equality, consistency, or justice from the law. I expect only legality.
    6. Re:Another waste of money by dwarfking · · Score: 1

      You are not required to answer any other question on the census, either.

      Unfortunately not true, look at 13 USC 221, which is the current controlling law for the census.

      Unfortunately, the way the original Constitutional requirement was written said

      "[The Census] shall be made ... in such Manner as [Congress] shall by Law direct."

      Which of course the Congress uses to basically do what ever they want, including requiring more information than just a head count.

    7. Re:Another waste of money by Lumpy · · Score: 1


      It doesn't cost that much, Harris is simply trying to pull shenanigans and get some free money for a project they plan on failing already. This is the status quo for government projects.

      You should check out the screw ups that dont get press. Hell look at the overruns on the mess that is the "big dig" you cant tell me there is not some shady things going on there.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    8. Re:Another waste of money by Harmonious+Botch · · Score: 3, Insightful

      ....the lowest income quintile keeps getting poorer. If the Federal government is going to do anything to help these people along, it needs to know a little more about them. Why are we implicitly assuming that the feds should do anything in particular to help these people? The last thing they need is more government 'help'. The 'war on poverty' has been going on for 40+ years now, and - as noted - the poorest group is getting poorer, not wealthier.

      If you think Congress makes dumb decisions, then complain about the dumb decisions. But don't cut off their access to information that could help them make better decisions. Parent - and congress - seem to assume that if you just knew enough about people, you could make good decisions for them. The latest atack on poverty didn't work? Well we just need more data.

      But the fact is that you can never know enough about a person's needs and circumstances as the person himself. Leave him alone, quit meddling in his life, lower his taxes ( by not wasting his money on cencus boondogles ) and he will probably get rich on his own.
    9. Re:Another waste of money by HTH+NE1 · · Score: 1

      You are not required to answer any other question [other than head count] on the census, either. Unfortunately not true, look at 13 USC 221, which is the current controlling law for the census. Okay, answer the head count truthfully, nothing else, and staple a $100 bill to the form for the maximum fine. (Assuming of course a blank answer cannot be interpreted as a false answer.)
      --
      Oh, say does that Star-Spangled Banner entwine / The myrtle of Venus with Bacchus's vine?
    10. Re:Another waste of money by Gospodin · · Score: 1

      This is because of the fallacy of believing the pie is only so big, and has to be divided equitably. However, the pie is actually variable in size, and all one has to do is increase the size of the pie by working to increase one's proportion of the pie.

      Another reason for the fallacy, as Thomas Sowell keeps pointing out (bless 'im), is that this statistic invariably refers to the lowest quintile of households, not people. But the lowest quintile of households contains slightly over half the number of actual people that the highest quintile contains. The lowest quintile of households contains large numbers of single young adults who are just getting started and will do fine.

      --
      ...following the principles of Heisenburger's Uncertain Cat...
    11. Re:Another waste of money by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 1

      Another fallacy is that the lowest quintile is always the same people; it ain't. There is in fact pretty good mobility of people getting out of that quintile.

    12. Re:Another waste of money by STrinity · · Score: 1

      Statistical methods of calculating population size will have margins of error error above 1%, which could be enough to throw a state an extra representative, or deprive them of one. You want to get as close to 100% as possible.

      --
      Les Miserables Volume 1 now up with my reading of
    13. Re:Another waste of money by socialhack · · Score: 1

      Between driver's licenses, utilities, medicare, social security, public school enrollment, arrests, and other records, a good statistician should be able to get an answer that is close enough. To double check the results, canvass a few dozen randomly chosen counties, then adjust accordingly. I seem to recall the existence of some law that prohibits such cross-agency information sharing.
      --
      Never leave a dead horse unbeaten!
    14. Re:Another waste of money by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      But there is no reason that counting people should cost over half a billion dollars.

      I just love it when folks present unsupported opinions as facts.
       
      Fact is, that works out to about $2.00/person - which is actually pretty cheap.
    15. Re:Another waste of money by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 1

      You are not required to answer any other question on the census, either.

      Unfortunately not true, look at 13 USC 221, which is the current controlling law for the census.

      I can't believe they got away with that. Looking over the text of Title 13 from your link, there don't appear to be any restrictions on the extent of the questions in the census. The government could turn this into a major money-grab simply by making the census so long -- or invasive -- that no one is willing to complete it. Allowing for under-18s and the minority of citizens with way too much time on their hands, at $100 each they could easily extort over $20 billion just in fines, all at the whim of the Secretary of Commerce.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    16. Re:Another waste of money by Hadlock · · Score: 1

      ...And until the Supreme Court rules on owning weapons, we have the right to overthrow the government by force if we decide it becomes too greedy. That assumes the dollar doesn't depreciate so much that $100 is almost pocket change. Heck, in 1998 $20 mostly filled up your tank. Now $40 fills your tank. $100 is about 80% of a month's worth of gas if I don't travel out of town or go visit family uptown.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    17. Re:Another waste of money by Hadlock · · Score: 2, Informative

      Agreed. Education helps enormously, but while you can force-educate, you can't force-motivate. Also, it's hard to see the forest from the trees. On the flip side, there was a study done that many people continue their way of life due to the fact that their family and safety net are all blue collar workers, and would rather stay with them than risk alienating them. Like the 4% unemployment rate being a steady factor, the lowest quintile is always going to rate drastically lower than the other four. Yay humanity.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    18. Re:Another waste of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm currently being bugged by someone from Statistics Canada who has been trying to get me to participate in a 6-month labour force survey. She said it was legally mandatory, and that for the integrity of the economy, they had to know the personal details of the person who lives in my house, in my apartment number.

      When she first approached me a couple months ago (entering the house without permission, I might add), I told her I didn't want to participate, mainly just as some libertarian-style trolling. Obviously, if this information was that important, they'd get it straight from the revenue agency. If the government considers my employment information sufficiently private to not share it from the revenue agency to the statistics department, then it's sufficiently private for me to have the right to not share it with the statistics department myself.

      From a statistical point of view, though, if someone doesn't want to participate in a survey, or if you are unable to reach them, you go down to the next person on your list of randomly-selected potential participants. From a research ethics point of view, nobody should be forced to participate in a survey against their will. Plus, when you force people to participate unwillingly, you jeopardize the integrity of the data they provide you.

      The easy thing would be to go along with the survey, but I had originally thought that I would have been well within my rights to tell these people to go away and it would have been over quite easily. Now it's clear that this is a right that needs to be fought for.

    19. Re:Another waste of money by ralphdaugherty · · Score: 1

      It doesn't cost that much, Harris is simply trying to pull shenanigans and get some free money for a project they plan on failing already. This is the status quo for government projects.

            This is totally offbase and clueless. Even a casual reading on this subject would show that the original specs and number of changes the gov made to the project (in the hundreds) is the result of big problems, but one of them isn't Harris trying to get free money.

        rd

    20. Re:Another waste of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As much as it pains me to say it, the parent is wrong.

      Refer to Section 221 of Title 13, Chapter 7, United States Code
      http://www.access.gpo.gov/uscode/title13/chapter7_subchapterii_.html

      Fortunately, the fine is = $100 for not answering the survey. In addition, you have to allow official census workers entrance (and exit) from your home.

      So much for privacy.

      PS. IANAL.

    21. Re:Another waste of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You assume that the purpose of the census is to get an accurate count of people. That is okay, because as a fellow tech-minded person I tend to think that is why things are counted as well.

      The census is a game where political parties create a byzantine set of regulations in hopes that they can over or under represent certain demographics and thereby maximize their political advantage in the next election cycle. Politicians should never be in charge of a census or redistricting, but they are. How sad.

      I agree with your statistical argument, but unfortunately the interpretation of the Constitution dictates a head count as being required. Let this be a lesson for everyone who writes a spec (or a Constitution) to avoid implementation details in a long living specification.

    22. Re:Another waste of money by JCSoRocks · · Score: 1

      Absolutely. I think nearly all college students end up qualifying as poverty stricken individuals because they work part time for beer money and get the rest of their money from college loans. On paper they make $10,000 a year and live with 5 other people in a 3 bedroom house - obviously we should roll out special programs to help these poor, poor people!

      --
      You are using English. Please learn the difference between loose and lose; they're, there, and their; your and you're.
    23. Re:Another waste of money by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      You can't force educate people because education requires motivation, which as you stated, can't be forced.

      You can make education compulsory, but that doesn't educate anyone. We should teach people how to learn, because learning is life long. Schools aren't doing that any more.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    24. Re:Another waste of money by Hugonz · · Score: 1

      All that information IS necessary for the government to provide all the services they provide today in a reasonable and efficient manner.

      So arguably they've never got any information...

    25. Re:Another waste of money by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Really? The government can make reasonable and efficient decisions without knowing statistics about its own citizenry?

      The meat of my comment, which you missed while making your futile attempt at pedanticism, is that government not only can not make reasonable and efficient decisions any day of the week, but more importantly is not interested in doing so at all. The Federal government is a system intended to separate citizens from money and place it into the hands of the people in control of it.

      If you doubt this, just take a look at how the people at the top of the current administration are getting rich off the War in Iraq, War on Terror, and War on (some) Drugs. And guess what? They're taking the money out of the country as fast as they can, and they're hiding it in non-extradition countries. Doesn't that seem a little, you know, corrupt?

      If you think Congress makes dumb decisions, then complain about the dumb decisions. But don't cut off their access to information that could help them make better decisions.

      If you think Congress makes dumb decisions, you're a fucking tool. Congress makes brilliant decisions - brilliant from the standpoint of getting what you can, while you can, and everyone else can go fuck themselves. If you doubt that why don't you watch some congresscreeps thank god for their constituent corporations sometime. Thank God for Dow Chemicals! Thank God for General Motors! HALLELUJAH!

      Now I rewind and revisit this point by addressing this particular sentence:

      Asking Congress to make decisions about America's future without letting them know about America's current state is like asking an engineer to build a bridge without telling him the strengths of the materials he has to work with.

      Congress doesn't give one tenth of one shit about America's future or they would stop hanging out at the country clubs, get in a taxicab, and go talk to some actual citizens. Of course, they will never do this, because they know if anyone actually recognized them, they would be taken out and lynched by the first true patriots they met.

      The simple fact is that the vast people running our country, and even the vast majority of people working for them as peons, have never known true adversity. They have never known what it is like to go hungry unless they went on a hunger strike in college for some people they didn't even know, or fasted for health-consciousness. They have never been in the legal system "for real" - they jump out as soon as they get in (witness the various vagaries of the Bush family; before them of course (and roughly to the present day) you have similar fun with Kennedys. These people have never known what it is to be an "average" American and have about as much chance of understanding it as your average data entry key puncher has of understanding the life of a night soil man with a leaky basket on his back. They do not care, they will never care, and they only want your money. The only chance we have of getting a functional government back is to strip it down to the bare metal and then rather than rebuild it, leave it the hell alone. The government governs best which governs least.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    26. Re:Another waste of money by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The people holding signs that say "Will work for food" are liars. They won't work, for anything, they just want a free handout. And many are willing to oblige.

      Sure, I agree with that. On the other hand, Americans work more hours in a week than almost anyone else in the world, our health care system is complete bullshit, and our life expectancy and infant mortality rates are poor and getting poorer - worse than Cuba, France, or the UK, all of which have the much-reviled-by-americans national health programs. I think it's pretty clear that the government is not serving the people.

      I don't think Clinton was responsible for the economic boom during his administration; besides, it was a bubble, so it wasn't really good (in the balance.) But I am quite sure that the current administration is at least partially responsible for the severe economic downturn we are currently experiencing; at least its severity. The true (monetary) cost of the war in Iraq is probably something around $3 trillion (when you factor in pensions and medical care for soldiers, assuming they get them) and growing. There are about the same number of jobs as when Bush took office (in spite of his promise to create more) but more of them are in the military or working for the department of homeland security (AKA the department of lies and bullshit) and more jobs are also part-time, meaning more people are working multiple jobs. Unemployment is high and rising. The government is supposed to stimulate the economy, not destroy it.

      I really do understand that any democracy (not that we live in one) is doomed once the people realize that they can vote themselves entitlements. I get it. But at the same time, I believe in compassion and the recognition that none of us stands alone, and I believe in the idea that the government should not be a machine for inefficiently separating the citizenry from money. Cut out all the bullshit tax cuts for the rich (where did we get this idea that you should be rewarded for success) and we honestly won't need all these entitlement programs. Produce minimum wages on which people can actually live, institute a flat tax, and actually charge people their taxes. The top taxpayers in this country typically pay taxes on only 50% of their income.

      In this country we have a very "fuck you" attitude about helping people who are down on their luck. This is understandable; no one wants to create a freeloader. Give a man a fish, teach a man to fish... but if the man is laid up in bed because he can't get health care, often even because his insurance company denied an entirely legitimate claim for some bullshit reason, he's not going to be learning how to fish. People need to be at a certain level to even function in a way we consider human. Until that, they're "just" animals. And, I might add, when you make people feel like shit for accepting aid then you are only self-defeating.

      When you go to get some kind of assistance from the government, the entire procedure is set up in such a way as to make you feel like a loser, and like a number. We have known for many years that people tend to rise or fall to your expectations. We are probably all familiar with experiments in which members of a class are told that they are better or worse than the others because of their eye or hair color; young students who are told that they are superior behave in a superior fashion, with test scores rising; the converse is true of the students told that they are inferior. Even more telling, if you switch them around the next week, the scores reverse! There was another study in which a teacher was given a group of "developmentally disabled" students and told that they were gifted students - and the students performed to her expectations, and not at all in line with their former scores.

      The system is set up to be self-defeating, by making people feel less than human for needing help.

      All you have to know about the way we treat the poor in this country is to know that our pr

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    27. Re:Another waste of money by Harmonious+Botch · · Score: 1

      Unsupported? Please read it in context. It was followed by an explanation of how the process could be done much cheaper.

    28. Re:Another waste of money by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      If anything your 'explanation' demonstrates how little you understand the problem domain of collecting the required statistics (the census is far more than mere counting) across a large population spread across and enormous amount of land. Even if you do restrict it to just counting - comparing a few random counties still doesn't cut the mustard due to the incredible variability between US counties.

      Etc... etc...

      "Lame ass uniformed handwaving" != "an explanation of how it could be done cheaper".

  10. Re:We'll still be using XP by Spy+der+Mann · · Score: 1

    Also, according to the image on page 4, in 2015, we STILL won't be using Vista.

    And that's good news! :D

  11. Why not use home PCs? by easyEmu · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Is there a law that requires census workers to knock on people's doors, can we not allow people to register for a census on the internet? Would that not be easier and less expensive?

    1. Re:Why not use home PCs? by Chandon+Seldon · · Score: 1

      They already send census forms by postal mail. The door-knocking is for households that don't fill out the forms. Maybe they could increase the response rate with a website - it's probably worth trying - but there'd still need to be knocking on doors.

      --
      -- The act of censorship is always worse than whatever is being censored. Always.
    2. Re:Why not use home PCs? by XxtraLarGe · · Score: 1

      That was my thought exactly. There's nothing about a census that should require going door-to-door. At the very least, they should allow people to opt-out of the door-to-door if they voluntarily fill out a census online.

      --
      Taking guns away from the 99% gives the 1% 100% of the power.
    3. Re:Why not use home PCs? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, because the people living in poverty, the Amish, and isolated rural areas don't count anyway.

    4. Re:Why not use home PCs? by Chyeld · · Score: 1

      *sarcasm on*
      Wow, I never knew so many people lived at the public pool....
      And no one lives downtown apparently...
      *sarcasm off*

      How exactly would you be able to trust any sort of information you received via a volunteer internet based collection?

    5. Re:Why not use home PCs? by easyEmu · · Score: 1

      Every public library has free internet service. We could also put registration systems on all the public transportation systems. Make census registration mandatory when you assess your personal property. If you do not have personal property then you likely ride public transportation. Anyone who is an adult, does not pay personal property tax, and who does not use a form of public transportation at least one time in the whole year is probably staying at a homeless shelter, so we should only have to send door to door people to all the shelters.

    6. Re:Why not use home PCs? by easyEmu · · Score: 1

      You mean like paying taxes online? Why not tie the census to social security number like everything else in our lives?

    7. Re:Why not use home PCs? by Frosty+Piss · · Score: 1

      Physically interviewing each person is much more accurate and much less prone to fraud.

      --
      If you want news from today, you have to come back tomorrow.
    8. Re:Why not use home PCs? by easyEmu · · Score: 1

      Just use the census bureau to audit people like the IRS does. There could be steep penalties for claiming more people live in your household than actually do.

    9. Re:Why not use home PCs? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      2 or 3 botnets sending in false data just for fun... I can imagine the hilarity that would ensue when a town of 30 gets a Federal windfall diverted from somewhere else.

    10. Re:Why not use home PCs? by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      census on the internet? Would that not be easier and less expensive?

      "Hmmm. Odd coincidence. 57 million citizens are ex-princes from Nigeria and in desperate need of cash."

    11. Re:Why not use home PCs? by Chyeld · · Score: 2, Informative

      1. Because legally you can't tie an SSN in such a manner, the only legal purpose for government requesting an SSN is for tax and SS purposes. The only time the government can touch your SSN is when the act can be construed as touching one of those items somehow. This is how the states were forced to change from providing licenses with DL#s based on your SSN to 'random' DL#s.

      2. Because participating in a census is voluntary and thus any numbers you garnered in a digital census would be skewed to unfairly over represent those with easy access to a computer, unless you simply used the computer as the 'alternative' to the forms you currently fill out and send in.

      3. Because not everyone has an SSN.

      4. Because a census wants to capture everyone, including those without SSNs or computers.

    12. Re:Why not use home PCs? by LiENUS · · Score: 2, Funny

      Just use the census bureau to audit people like the IRS does. There could be steep penalties for claiming more people live in your household than actually do. Or if you say fewer people live in your house than actually do they could take away those extra people like the IRS!
    13. Re:Why not use home PCs? by smithmc · · Score: 1

      Is there a law that requires census workers to knock on people's doors, can we not allow people to register for a census on the internet? Would that not be easier and less expensive? Sure - for those folks who have computers and Internet access. But somehow, I don't those are the folks that the Census Bureau is worried about missing...
      --
      Downmodding is the refuge of the weak. Don't downmod, make a better argument!
  12. It's the people stupid by Bryansix · · Score: 1

    The problem with the computers is two-fold. One is they aren't designed to work with large amounts of data. The other is user training. Having been in college for the 2000 census, I can tell you that the government will hire any douchebag to complete the census in time. Therefore the users will be stupid. This system better be designed with a 90 great grandma in mind or it won't get results. That means it HAS to be intuitive. Furthermore the Census will always be off. If people returned the mail in form then the computers wouldn't be needed. Some people will never submit their information while still others who know what the Census is used for (Government subsidies and aid is tied to it) will over report the number of people in their household.

    1. Re:It's the people stupid by Amouth · · Score: 1

      i never understood this.. why not to a 2 fold system

      1) web based fill in for address
      then
      2) no spoken for addresses - mail out form
      then
      3) have postal workers get the info for the remaining addresses

      all being spaced out by a few months..

      i mean.. the post office basicly visits every location every day 6 days a week (i know not ALL but damn close percentage wise)

      really i just don't undertand why the hell it is all that fucking hard.. sure people can poke holes in what i posted.. but others can fix them.. but 2billion is bull shit

      --
      '...if only "Jumping to a Conclusion" was an event in the Olympics.'
    2. Re:It's the people stupid by Lost+Engineer · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure all computers are good at is working with large amounts of data.

    3. Re:It's the people stupid by Bryansix · · Score: 1

      Not these computers suposedly. Computers are also good at organizing things too. The problem is these one's aren't designed to organize or export this data easily. At least that's what I heard on the radio. KFWB.

  13. What the hell is a GAO? by peipas · · Score: 1

    Government Accountability Office, apparently.

  14. What's Wrong With Paper? by prichardson · · Score: 1

    I know computers are capable of doing the job, but what was wrong with paper? Paper doesn't crash, get deleted, or require technology training. Further, if someone loses a paper copy of the census, it doesn't cost that much to replace.

    It doesn't even have to be nice paper, just as long as it can be written on.

    --
    Help I'm a rock.
    1. Re:What's Wrong With Paper? by stokessd · · Score: 1

      They could use Hipster PDAs, they are all the rage and don't crash:

      http://wiki.43folders.com/index.php/Hipster_PDA

      I'd be willing to provide say a million of them for a mere 20% of that projected overrun.

      Sheldon

    2. Re:What's Wrong With Paper? by Chandon+Seldon · · Score: 1

      It's awfully useful to have data in computer storage if you want to query it for information.

      Consider this question: What is the median income of urban black males ages 30-37?

      Now consider answering that on a computer - if the data's in an SQL database, that's like two queries. In contrast, answering that that given a warehouse full of filing cabinets is basically impossible.

      --
      -- The act of censorship is always worse than whatever is being censored. Always.
  15. What? by AbsoluteXyro · · Score: 1

    How the hell can it be that hard to count people?

    1. Re:What? by compro01 · · Score: 1

      counting isn't the hard part. the problem is finding all of them and collecting all the other demographic trivia, then collating and interpreting those findings.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
  16. Is Diebold making the computers? by Tired+and+Emotional · · Score: 4, Funny

    Lets hope not. The population of the West Coast and the North East combined would come out at zero!

    --
    Squirrel!
    1. Re:Is Diebold making the computers? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Diebold Census results:
      25% male
      24% female
      51% republican

  17. Too much data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    The problem is as it always is with the federal government. The Constitution only says one thing about the census:

    "[An] Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

    from Article 1 Section 2, but our government has increased what is actually collected from a simple head count to a great deal more (intrusive) information as defined by 13 USC 141.

    If the census only covered what is mentioned in the Constitution, one of those simple hand counters (the click type) would suffice.

    During the last census, one of the census workers came to my house with this big long form. I told him that there were 2 voting age adults and 3 underage children residing there. He started asking all sorts of other questions, how much do you make, what race is everyone, etc. When I refused to answer he became all indignant telling me I was required to answer because it was a Constitutional mandate. When I pointed out that I did answer based on the Constitution he became angry.

    At that point I told him to have me arrested and I'd see him in court and closed the door.

    The fact is, the government needs all that data to continue with their social engineering and that is something I won't support.

    So yeah, the system has cost overruns, and could be handled with just a piece of paper and a pencil, if, the government would do only what they were supposed to do.

  18. Can we not train people? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Big worries for the nation's first high-tech census should have been obvious when tests showed some of the door-to-door headcounters couldn't figure out their fancy new handheld computers.

    Are there seriously people out there who are NOT TRAINABLE to this extent? Or to ask it another way, did the census people hire people who are incredibly dense, averse to learning new things, and/or stubborn?

    Or maybe I should ask it this way. Did the company who designed the software do such a poor job designing the interface that it's impossible to use?
  19. This is simple... by msauve · · Score: 1

    just take an enumeration, which is all that the Constitution allows, anyway. ("The actual Enumeration shall be made ... within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct...counting the whole number of persons in each State...")

    Without the need to gather all that other illegal crap ("How many toilets in your household?"), a census take needs little more than a cheap handheld clicker.

    --
    "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    1. Re:This is simple... by TimothyDavis · · Score: 1

      ...counting the whole number of persons in each State...

      Am I the only one creeped out by this? Does this mean that amputees aren't counted?
    2. Re:This is simple... by statemachine · · Score: 2, Informative

      Read the original version of the Constitution. There are provisions for fractional people.

    3. Re:This is simple... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Now that's what I call dark humor....

      - T

  20. Use the Post Office by wile_e_wonka · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think they should just use the post office to conduct the census. They already go to everyone's house. They could just hire some more people for the census and expand the job of the mailperson for a few months.

    1. Re:Use the Post Office by Sentry21 · · Score: 1

      Except they don't go to everyone's house at a time when people are likely to be home (necessarily). My mail sure as heck doesn't come when I'm home, and only when I was working graveyard shifts in the past has that ever happened. The problem with censuses is that they're not just going door-to-door, it's going door-to-door and asking questions of people over the age of 18 who live there. That's why they need census-takers.

    2. Re:Use the Post Office by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1
      I think they should just use the post office to conduct the census.

      The census is conducted by mail. The census workers are there (among other reasons) to contact people don't return the mail-in form by the cutoff date...

      Fron TFA: They would use the computers to collect and transmit information from residents who failed to return the census forms mailed out by the government.

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    3. Re:Use the Post Office by OldeTimeGeek · · Score: 1

      Letter carriers don't come to my house. I live in a condominium. They don't go to my sister's either. She lives in a newer housing tract that has a mailbox cluster for every eight houses. And my friend who lives in a 50-unit apartment? He's never seen the mail person - they only have access to the mailboxes, not the units.

  21. It's not that complicated.... by ocirs · · Score: 1

    I don't see why a couple hundred servers at a few million along with a nicely designed site with php and mysql for a few hundred thousand wouldn't work. Internet surveys are extremely popular these days and the information wouldn't have to go through multiple hoops to be stored in the database format where it can be analyzed.

  22. How is it the computers' fault? by pembo13 · · Score: 1

    Are computers just not powerful enough for the task? Are the incapable of performing the required computations? If not, I don't see how this is the poor computers fault. On another note: I am guessing a slate of Tungten Es with custom software is out of the question.

    --
    "Thanks for all the money you paid to us. We've used it to buy off ISO among other things" -Microsoft
  23. Foreign census experience by Bombula · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I was living in a Gulf country a few years ago when the government there conducted the census. They just sent out an army of 20-somthings with PDAs to do the surveys. I believe most of the survey was multiple-choice, but there were some numeric entries (how much I earned per month and what y rent cost, for example). You could do those with multiple-choice too, obviously, with a selection of ranges.

    The whole census survey took about 15 minutes. They collected a lot of data - I'd say there were between 60 and 80 questions. Since I'm a geeky sort of person, I asked the kid how it worked and he showed me - the PDA (a Compac Pocket PC) just ran a macro in MS Office which dumped each survey as a file into a folder. That folder synced via wireless/mobile-phone link to where the main data center was.

    The country has a population of about 4 million, and he said there were 200 people doing the survey for several months. Seemed pretty straightforward, and I can't imagine it cost that much - certainly labor and not the PDAs was the primary expense.

    --
    A-Bomb
    1. Re:Foreign census experience by Sentry21 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I worked for a company that did mobile data collection software, including actual survey design (flowing questions, ask this question based on this question's answer, filter these responses, ask this set of questions once for each child listed in previous questions, etc.).

      This stuff is trivial to implement if you do it right, and all it takes is commodity Palm hardware (or PocketPC hardware running an emulation layer, or Windows tablets). It's trivial to do, syncs automatically, and can export all the data in a format easily used for generating whatever reports or correlations you want. The fact that the government is screwing this up (or rather, their contractor is) is just an example of not shopping around (or perhaps limiting their shopping to only American companies).

      There's no reason that it should cost anywhere as much as it does, unless they're hiring way too many people (or can't manage the travelling salesperson problem). It's just a mismanaged government cock-up, is all.

    2. Re:Foreign census experience by NMerriam · · Score: 1

      Similarly, I built a Palm OS census application a couple years back that was to be used by doctors and nurses when traveling to third-world countries. We'd gather data on several thousand patients per week. It almost seems like you'd have to go out of your way to make something as simple as a tablet whose sole purpose is collecting census data in any way too complicated. It's a bunch of fields, you fill them out, it synchs up at the end of the day (or hell, they can do it over cell networks in real time if they feel fancy). Sure, you should have good security which adds expense, but beyond that...WTF?

      --
      Recursive: Adj. See Recursive.
    3. Re:Foreign census experience by dbIII · · Score: 1
      Step 1 - Write census data entry software for cheaper system like Nintendo DS ...

      You do not just want some guy to toss together a macro in MS Office on a PDA for a single use system where you want to strictly limit the options. Real programs to do simple things do not take as long as people think - India's custom made electronic voting sytem is far superiour to what Diebold cobbled together from available bits and appears to have consumed less time and resources at every stage.

  24. Count Accuracy Unlikely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I will be 60 this year and as far as I know may have never been counted, unless I was
    counted somewhere around my 2nd birthday. Spent the first 34 years at the same address.
    While there we received census forms in the mail twice, with instructions to wait for
    a census worker to come pick them up. There was no address for mailing them back to
    anywhere and nobody ever came to pick them up. After I left that address I, my wife
    and son have never had any contact with anybody or anything regarding the U.S. Census.
    I have lived in the same home for the last 13 years in a St. Louis county suburb in
    Missouri that is less than 8 miles from our Lambert International Airport.

  25. Paint me Blue... by whisper_jeff · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Paint me blue and call me stupid, but really, how hard is it to make a hand-held computer designed to take and store census data? It's not like these machines need to calculate pi. It's data entry and retention. Right? How could that possibly require $2 billion dollars to implement? What am I missing? (beyond the obvious corruption and inflation of budgets to line the pockets of fat cats)

    1. Re:Paint me Blue... by ralphdaugherty · · Score: 1

      Paint me blue and call me stupid, but really, how hard is it to make a hand-held computer designed to take and store census data? It's not like these machines need to calculate pi. It's data entry and retention. Right? How could that possibly require $2 billion dollars to implement? What am I missing? (beyond the obvious corruption and inflation of budgets to line the pockets of fat cats)

            You wouldn't believe it if you read the specs for the thing. The gov actually is requiring a custom built PDA because they couldn't find anything on the market to perform to these specs. GPS, mapping, communications of entered data, and who knows what else besides data retention. Yet somehow small notebooks didn't cut it.

            I personally think it's dumb as hell, especially when all this is to try to count people that didn't respond to mailings and don't want to be counted/found/documented.

        rd

  26. Major IT failures seem so common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Bet if you did a study, a serious one, you'd find there's an irrefutable inverse relationship between the amount of money bid for a project and the success of that project. I know it sounds like a flippant witticism, but I'm sure of it, do the research and the figures will prove a direct *causal link* between the amount of money put in and project failure.

    I mean, what is it with these large scale IT projects? They take a simple problem and turn it into a money pit. Here in the UK we've had several high profile massive budget IT failures in the last 10 years, air traffic control, national health patient record databases, in fact the more critical it is the more of a spectacular unqualified fuck-up it becomes.

    Now, if you got a couple of average hacker nerds and gave then the same specs, but didn't tell them it was for a large scale project, or for whom, they would give you a faultless solution using commodity hardware, stock methods and free software in a few months at one *millionth* the cost we're looking at here. Every one of you here knows it to be true. So, my question is, what goes wrong? How can it possibly go so wrong? Are the people involved complete idiots? Or corrupt?

    What are the factors that turn a simple software project into an impossible task? Is it the stress of high budgets? Too many crooks spoiling the broth? And more to the point, when is some bright person going to break from this pattern of failure and realise that to award a major government IT contract to *more than one* complete no-name outsiders bidding a fraction of the cost makes more sense than giving billions of dollars to one contractor and putting all your eggs in one basket?

    1. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by b96miata · · Score: 1

      Awarding a contract to more than one provider ensures they all have someone else to point the finger at when it breaks. Hell, you see this even with contracts that measure in the 10s of thousands rather than the 100's of millions.

    2. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by DerekLyons · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Bet if you did a study, a serious one, you'd find there's an irrefutable inverse relationship between the amount of money bid for a project and the success of that project.

      I can refute it without even breaking a sweat. The Manhattan Project. The Apollo Project. The creation of the Polaris, Atlas, and Titan missiles... The creation of nuclear powered ships... Etc... Etc... Big ticket projects all - unqualified successes all.
       
       

      I mean, what is it with these large scale IT projects? They take a simple problem and turn it into a money pit. Here in the UK we've had several high profile massive budget IT failures in the last 10 years, air traffic control, national health patient record databases, in fact the more critical it is the more of a spectacular unqualified fuck-up it becomes.

      Mostly because we really don't have all that much experience building huge monolithic IT projects from scratch and to spec. The vast majority of the [truly tremendously] big IT projects to date (the telephone system, the networks big banks use, etc...) have been built piecemeal and grown from small beginnings.
       
       

      Now, if you got a couple of average hacker nerds and gave then the same specs, but didn't tell them it was for a large scale project, or for whom, they would give you a faultless solution using commodity hardware, stock methods and free software in a few months at one *millionth* the cost we're looking at here. Every one of you here knows it to be true.

      I know it's a common conceit of IT workers to believe so. I don't believe for a single second that it's true. 'Average Hacker Nerds' have essentially zero experience in building large systems, triply so for distributed ones.
       
       

      So, my question is, what goes wrong? How can it possibly go so wrong? Are the people involved complete idiots? Or corrupt?

      Or, just maybe, the projects are Really Hard in extremely specialized project domains.
       
       

      What are the factors that turn a simple software project into an impossible task?

      The persistent belief that these projects are 'simply software' and thus easy to do. Especially among people with essentially zero knowledge of the problem domain(s) and the issues involved.
    3. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by ralphdaugherty · · Score: 1

      Here in the UK we've had several high profile massive budget IT failures in the last 10 years, air traffic control, national health patient record databases, in fact the more critical it is the more of a spectacular unqualified fuck-up it becomes.

            Same here in the US. I contend it's because new software is web and SQL based whereas former large systems were terminal and record level IO based, but IS refuses to see that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.

        rd

    4. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by ralphdaugherty · · Score: 1

      What are the factors that turn a simple software project into an impossible task?

            not being simple.

        rd

    5. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by kabocox · · Score: 1

      I mean, what is it with these large scale IT projects? They take a simple problem and turn it into a money pit. Here in the UK we've had several high profile massive budget IT failures in the last 10 years, air traffic control, national health patient record databases, in fact the more critical it is the more of a spectacular unqualified fuck-up it becomes.

      Now, if you got a couple of average hacker nerds and gave then the same specs, but didn't tell them it was for a large scale project, or for whom, they would give you a faultless solution using commodity hardware, stock methods and free software in a few months at one *millionth* the cost we're looking at here.


      Obviously some one who has never worked on a large project. It it was "easy" for these "large scale critical" projects to be done; they would be solved, and it they would be non-issues. Oh, I'm sure most programmers can fast prototype a small scale solution within a week. Will that prototype fit all the specs and actually scale up? Not likely.

      I know its hard to believe, but there are lots of problems that are hard to solve. Open Source programmers aren't mad scientists that can magically invent with little apparent effort. They are people like everyone else that will run into the same problems everyone else does. I think most of these "large scale projects" fail because of project politics more than anything else. Project politics isn't something open source can fix. Ever heard of how many people couldn't play nice with others or didn't want to in the first place and just forked their OS project? That doesn't work for everything.

    6. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      I can refute it without even breaking a sweat. The Manhattan Project. The Apollo Project. The creation of the Polaris, Atlas, and Titan missiles... The creation of nuclear powered ships... Etc... Etc... Big ticket projects all - unqualified successes all.

      It's never a question about getting it done. That's easy. What was the set budget for the Manhattan Project? Something along the lines of "get it done no matter what the cost or Hitler will be ruling the world." With a budget like that, I think that many things could be accomplished. If they had a set budget before the project started, do you think they would have come in under or over budget? Is something that works at the end of the project, but took 10 years longer than it should and cost 10X as much a "success"? I'm not saying anything on your list fits that description, but that "success" has different terms. In project management, a project that is 1 day late and $1 over budget and works 100% perfectly is a failure.

      I know it's a common conceit of IT workers to believe so. I don't believe for a single second that it's true. 'Average Hacker Nerds' have essentially zero experience in building large systems, triply so for distributed ones.

      Yeah, tell a bunch of hackers to make up a new OS as good as anything commercial and it'll never happen. Or it just might and they'll cal it Linux. Give them something to do, and I have a reasonable expectation that they could accomplish it, even if big and distributed.

    7. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Yeah, tell a bunch of hackers to make up a new OS as good as anything commercial and it'll never happen. Or it just might and they'll cal it Linux. Give them something to do, and I have a reasonable expectation that they could accomplish it, even if big and distributed.

      ROTFLMAO. You honestly think an OS is the equivalent of the projects the OP listed? All I can say is you are seriously deluded.
    8. Re:Major IT failures seem so common by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      ROTFLMAO. You honestly think an OS is the equivalent of the projects the OP listed? All I can say is you are seriously deluded.

      I never said that. I said that random geeks with no plan can make a decent OS. Give them a goal, a little help, and I think they'd make the Census project cheaper and better than the private sector. It's one case where communism beats the hell out of capitalism.

  27. How to get big numbers across by sconeu · · Score: 4, Informative
    Many people don't understand big numbers... My favorite way to get across just how big ONE BILLION (pinky-to-mouth) is, is as follows:

    A rich man wanted his wife to stop bugging him for money. So he gave her $1Million, and told her to spend $1000 a day.

    Three years later, she came back, and said she was out of money. So he gave her $1Billion.

    She didn't bug him again for 3000 years.
    --
    General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
    1. Re:How to get big numbers across by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

      Uhhh, $1 billion is 100 times $1 million. So she would've been back in 300 years, not 3000. People in stone houses shouldn't throw bricks moron.

    2. Re:How to get big numbers across by SlashWombat · · Score: 2, Funny

      Uhhh, $1 billion is 100 times $1 million. So she would've been back in 300 years, not 3000. People in stone houses shouldn't throw bricks moron. Don't tell me, you must work for NASA! (No wonder the USA is falling behind in science!)
    3. Re:How to get big numbers across by Shakrai · · Score: 3, Funny

      Uhhh, $1 billion is 100 times $1 million

      Google doesn't seem to think so....

      People in stone houses shouldn't throw bricks moron.

      Indeed.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    4. Re:How to get big numbers across by cybernanga · · Score: 1

      GP is correct. A billion is either a THOUSAND Million, or a MILLION Million. It has never been 100 Million http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billion

      --
      www.Buy-Proxy.com - A "buyer-driven" global marketplace.
    5. Re:How to get big numbers across by maxume · · Score: 1

      It is probably exceptionally difficult to actually understand what spending $1000 a day for 3 years would get you, at least as some sort of coherent whole.

      I'm pretty sure that most people with 100 M&M's sitting in front of them would have great difficulty scaling that experience to 10,000 M&M's, and it would just get worse as you went up.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    6. Re:How to get big numbers across by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Short scale vs. Long scale. In the US, a Billion is a million million (10^12). Just about everywhere else (afaik) it's one thousand million (10^9).

    7. Re:How to get big numbers across by sconeu · · Score: 1

      You mean the UK. What we in the US call a billion, the UK call a milliard. In the UK, 1 billion is 10^12.

      Note: common usage may have changed since I learned that.

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
    8. Re:How to get big numbers across by jackbird · · Score: 1

      or perhaps one HUNDRED times one MILLION is ONE HUNDRED MILLION. Even an English major can do that one.

    9. Re:How to get big numbers across by geekangel · · Score: 1

      Throwing a brick in a stone house would be fine, unless you hit a person or furnishings or a window or something.

      The maths isn't too hot.

      But I'm concerned that this woman didn't invest her money at all. If you only spend $1000 a day, that's $365,000ish per yeah, which let's say is 0.04% of the capital. Surely she can get a higher interest rate than that! Really, she should never run out of money.

      Also, umm, she'd probably be dead before 3000 years.

      And, that marriage doesn't seem to be working out so well.

      But besides those things, all appears to be in order, carry on.

    10. Re:How to get big numbers across by TheVelvetFlamebait · · Score: 1

      3000 years. Gee, that's such a long time. What is it, like 100 days?

      --
      You know, there is a difference between trolling and pointing out the flaws in your reasoning. Just saying.
    11. Re:How to get big numbers across by bloobloo · · Score: 1

      No. We have used the short scale since the 60s. A billion is 1000 million.

    12. Re:How to get big numbers across by smithmc · · Score: 1

      3000 years. Gee, that's such a long time. What is it, like 100 days? How many VW Beetles per Library of Congress does it take to make 3000 years?
      --
      Downmodding is the refuge of the weak. Don't downmod, make a better argument!
  28. How can they possibly fuck this one up? by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Yeah, yeah, I know, the evil gummint. That said, this was farmed out to Harris Corporation. How could they screw up so dramatically? Every part of this project is pure COTS. Handheld computers are stock items, in the form of phones, PDAs, tablets, eeePCs, or whatever. In any of those categories one can get a device that'll run whatever software you want it to run for not much money at all. The input software on the handhelds should be trivial, and the backend is standard database. Big standard database; but that is nothing new. How can that start at over half a billion dollars and potentially quadruple from there? Even if you bought expensive commercial software the whole way, giant sun boxxen to run it on, and iphones for every last censustaker it shouldn't run anywhere near that. Heck, for that kind of money, you could develop an openMoko branch to be exactly the device you want it to be, probably three times over. WTF? I realise that the government has a reputation for lousy efficiency; but what about this contractor? How does a company this worthless survive?

    1. Re:How can they possibly fuck this one up? by Chrismith · · Score: 1

      If you RTFA, you'll see that the devices actually work just fine -- the problem is that the people the government is paying to use them can't figure them out.

    2. Re:How can they possibly fuck this one up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I work for Harris Corporation.

      Granted, in a division different than the one responsible for this contract, but I can tell you this: since Harris gobbled up the small high-tech company I previously worked for, our new product development has slowed down to the speed of molasses.

      What was once a brand of quick NPI is now slow, beaucratic, and full of over-spending.

      I recently left the company for greener pastures, and in my little corner of Harris, they have a turnover rate of over 15% per annum - greater than 1 person every month for more than 3 years.

  29. The Solution Is Obvious by BigBlueOx · · Score: 1

    The problem is that a bunch of "temporary workers" can't figure out the user interface on those Harris thingys. Well, they should be using Mac Airs ... or Apple AirBooks ...or whatever the hell they're called. Anybody can use an Apple, they're so intuitive! And cheap! Don't forget the cost savings!

    And again I have to wonder why I'm not in charge.

  30. Perhaps ballot stuffing by peipas · · Score: 1

    For example, by loosening up the definition of "citizen" only slightly, I can double the U.S. population. Every life counts.

  31. Silence of the Lambs by Ethanol-fueled · · Score: 1

    "A census taker tried to quantify me once. I ate his liver with some fava beans and a big Amarone.

    --Dr. Hannibal Lecter

    1. Re:Silence of the Lambs by Freeside1 · · Score: 0

      not that it matters, but I thought it was a "nice Chianti"

    2. Re:Silence of the Lambs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The parent is using the quote from the book, not from the movie.

  32. Who can you call? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    I'm pretty sure MacGyver did his own 1985 census with a paperclip, a piece of scotch tape, and 3 guys he found standing outside a Home Depot in Tucson.

    1. Re:Who can you call? by Eudial · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure MacGyver did his own 1985 census with a paperclip, a piece of scotch tape, and 3 guys he found standing outside a Home Depot in Tucson.


      No, that was his manned lunar mission. He made the consensus with a rolled up newspaper, an apple and an old rusty cookie jar.
      --
      GAAH! MY PRINTER IS ON FIRE!!! PUT IT OUT! PUT IT OUT!
  33. That, folks by ThorGod · · Score: 1

    is why I do not like having official work be done with computers!

    XD

    --
    PS: I don't reply to ACs.
  34. ...and quite the oxymoron it is! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    so, who really is holding them accountable?

    1. Re:...and quite the oxymoron it is! by TTURabble · · Score: 1

      ...And who is accounting for the accounters?!

  35. Old tech keeps working... by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1
    There is consideration that the paper and pencil method might have to be employed to complete the census.

    Dear Commerce Department, See: Why OldTech Keeps Kicking

    --
    It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
  36. unconstitutional by peter303 · · Score: 1

    Its been interpretated that an estimate is not a count. And thats what the constitution asks for.

    The Dems prefer a count while the Repubs would go with an estimate. An estimate is more accurate for people who own property.

    1. Re:unconstitutional by darkshadow · · Score: 2, Informative

      Maybe now, but in 2000 it was the Democrats that supported statistical sampling in the census.
      http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE4D9123BF930A1575AC0A961958260

      --
      -Darkshadow (There was a thing called Heaven; but all the same they used to drink enormous quantities of alcohol.)
    2. Re:unconstitutional by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 1

      You got it backwards. Dems want the estimates; Republicans want a count. People who own property are easy to find; they get counted. Estimates can correct for the transients you didn't manage to count because you couldn't find them.

  37. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  38. Conservatives are half right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When conservatives continuously tell everyone that government doesn't work, they are half right. Conservatives IN GOVERNMENT never work.

    Occam's Razor- just get all the conservatives out of government, and the problems magically disappear!

    1. Re:Conservatives are half right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or the more common truism: "Republicans say government is incompetent; then they get elected to prove it."

  39. Paper and Pencil? How's that work? by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 1

    Countee: [waves hand] "These are not the droids you are looking for...hee hee!"

    Counter: [pulls out pencil and checks 'dork']

  40. I am waiting for the day when by zappepcs · · Score: 1

    projects like this are not just put out for bid, but offered up like an X Prize. For a mere 10 million dollars they would probably end up with a device agnostic system that works with wireless and not, and compiles statistics for serving up to the web automatically. I can see the Google mashup now.

    Ferchrisakes, this is WHAT GEEKS DO all day long.

    Add a blind double check security login so that people can be counted at home on their computers. Then only check those with addresses and no data as well as addresses with more than one set of data.

    Then off you go, into the wild digital yonder of mashups and web pages with pie charts and 'stuff'

    Yes, I truly do believe it is that simple. The one guy that has a chance for the netflix prize all on his own is one of those bumps in the bell curve of design. If you put it up for bid, the only developers working on the project will be bound to follow orders from those above, and bright ideas will be lost in the suffle of stale coffee and boring meetings.

    Post the bid specs and lets see what happens? why not? I realize this has to secure information about persons but it's not like the system would lose any nuclear weaponry in Taiwan? right?

  41. why not by esocid · · Score: 1

    Just extrapolate or approximate by using a smaller census and count the number of employed and schoolgoing kids and just add the number of unemployed, homeschooled, and births to get a number that would have about a 90% confidence interval? Is a 95% confidence interval really worth that many billion dollars?

    --
    Absolute power corrupts absolutely. indymedia
  42. Re:Count Accuracy Unlikely by steveg · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In 52 years I've been counted once, to my knowledge. It was either the 1980 or 1990 census. Never before or since.

    --
    Ignorance killed the cat. Curiosity was framed.
  43. re by JohnVanVliet · · Score: 1

    2 billion ??? you could do the census using OLD trs 80 pocket computers so What will cost that much, 2 billion

    --
    "I don't pitch OpenSUSE Linux to my friends, i let Microsoft do it for me
  44. Let me just get this straight... by tommyhj · · Score: 0, Troll

    In the US, the government has to go around, manually counting people in the streets??? Aren't you people registered centrally with your citizenship at birth or something? I mean, counting people like that is what I heard they did in a very popular Christmas story 2008 years ago, but I honestly though technology and advances in governmental practices had made manual counting obsolete...

    1. Re:Let me just get this straight... by Alchemist253 · · Score: 1

      You don't understand, the Census tries to count ALL residents, legal or illegal, citizen or not.

      Furthermore, the Constitution of the United States REQUIRES that an ACTUAL ENUMERATION occur every decade. This effectively precludes the use of statistical sampling techniques.

      All things considered, given the massive amounts of money that we spend on other pointless endeavors, the relatively low cost of conducting an accurate census does not bother me much.

      Now... the cost overruns due to faulty contracting... those I detest.

  45. I agree by Lilith's+Heart-shape · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    You're right, and the people modding you down are full of shit. Two billion dollars for a census is unforgivable, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if some of Bush's cronies had stock in Harris. You're right; we should go back to the days when horse thieves were hanged, the days when the tax regime we have now would provoke widespread insurrection.

  46. Incompetent Buffoons by DigitalisAkujin · · Score: 1

    This is what happens if contracts are awarded to companies that have CEOs with connections to politicians. Politicians clearly have no fucking clue what it's involved so they simply accept the status quo from these leeches!

    The fact of the matter is this job could be done with this setup:
    -Each hand held machine would collect data as it's received and store locally.
    -Once back at the office they would be connected to the LAN with an Internet connection to a main server at census offices with an SSL encryption that would simply upload the results.

    Why is it that companies constantly over complicate the operation?

    Videogame developers do a better job of all of this on a tighter budget with less people and are expected to do so in less time!! Why are we paying them if the job isn't done? Cut them off now and get someone else for the job.

  47. My Other Computer is a Pencil... by mkcmkc · · Score: 2, Insightful
    One thing that 20+ years in the computer industry has taught me is that if you don't need a computer for a task, don't use one.

    Coincidentally, my first paying job was working as a US Census enumerator for the 1980 census. Paper worked fine. The real problems were with my fellow citizens who didn't want to be enumerated (which I can understand, though calling the police on me seemed like overkill).

    Finally, apropos of this topic, I recently discovered that the best "organizer" in the world is an empty file folder (or perhaps several) and a supply of sticky notes. Portable, easy to reorganize, no problem if you run your car over it, easy to back up, etc.

    --
    "Not an actor, but he plays one on TV."
    1. Re:My Other Computer is a Pencil... by asterix404 · · Score: 1

      Is there any chance that you in fact were given 2 billion dollars, and if you were to be given 2 billion dollars in 1980, how many pencils/stamps and single sided sheets of xerox'ed questioners you could in fact buy? Given the close to 300 million people in this country it would mean that the US is going to spend about 8$ per person to find out that they exist.

  48. pork by Sloppy · · Score: 1

    Tech issues aside, the mere fact that we are spending half a billions dollars on the equipment alone, should be enough to tell us it's a rip-off. Whoever gave out that porky contract should be tarred and feathered.

    As for tech: Technology is all about giving more bang per buck. When it gives you less, then you shouldn't call it "high tech." It sounds like these computers are lower technology than paper and pen; i.e. an engineer would look at the problem, say, "aha! I have an idea!" and propose upgrading the computers to notepads.

    --
    As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
  49. Canada had census forms online in 2006 by LordEd · · Score: 4, Informative

    Our last census had the option of filling out the census forms online. I didn't find out how many actually did it, but they were originally estimating 20% usage. Instead of getting the full booklet to fill out, you got an access code.

    http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2006/04/27/online-census060427.html

    While searching for a reference article, i found that there were some issues with Linux users, although they attempted to correct it.

    http://www.linux.com/articles/54366

    1. Re:Canada had census forms online in 2006 by Tatey · · Score: 1

      Australians also had the option of completing the 2006 census online, using their web browser. The process was straight forward and was completed in under 15 minutes. At the time, I was using GNOME and Firefox on my desktop and didn't encounter any compatibility issues. In fact, if I recall correctly; the site even went as far as to list compatibility with IE, Firefox and Safari.

    2. Re:Canada had census forms online in 2006 by ispeters · · Score: 1

      I tried to fill out my 2006 Canadian census form online and failed because the site was incompatible with Linux. I believe they had the problem corrected before the submission deadline, but I had already given up and submitted the paper form. The compatibility problem I encountered had something to do with their high-falutin' Java-based web application, which frustrated me because I didn't (and still don't) understand why what amounts to a sensitive multiple-choice form required anything more than HTML over HTTPS. I believe things will work better next time around, though, and I'm kinda proud not only to see my country making progress in this direction but also that the people running the show actually reacted to a bunch of Linux-using hippies and made the site more widely-accessible even if it did take some complaint.

      Ian

  50. Re:Flagrant Corruption by zippthorne · · Score: 1

    Indeed. And then bill the horse owner the amount of one horse. Then tax him every year for the horse feed.

    --
    Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  51. do they run vista!? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Also, the computers were not initially programmed to transmit the large amounts of data necessary."

    What the hell kind of computers did the contractor provide!? They need to be reprogrammed to support larger data transfers - wtf. And how does a large lot of handhelds (with a custom operating system, apps) come to more than half a billion dollars? I should have been a beltway bandit.

  52. Pretty crooked path... by ElboRuum · · Score: 1

    The census is much more than just a count of people. Quite a bit of statistical and demographic data is collected... questions like how many people per household, demographics of the occupants, and this data is not centralized... and no, they don't walk around the street like some Jar Jar Binks clones asking "Excueeze me, have you be-in censified? Mesa taking census!" Every household gets mailed a census form, and you just fill it out and send it back. If you fill something out on it wrong, they may send a census taker around to get the information corrected.

    1. Re:Pretty crooked path... by tommyhj · · Score: 1

      ok, thanks for clearing that up :-)

  53. Canada's been there, done that by WebCowboy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    can we not allow people to register for a census on the internet?

    Sure you can. I submitted my census questions via secure website during the last census in 2006...but that was in Canada. It was easier, and certainly less expensive to process (didn't save paper though, because everyone still got the mailer; you could fill it in and mail it back or log in with the information provided in the mailer).

    I'm not sure about how it goes in the US, but sending out canvassers only covers about two percent of data collection. Canvassing is only used for the following:

    * to survey transient populations--ie. the homeless--
    * to collect from remote locations such as the far north, where mail service and internet connectivity are slow, limited or unavailable
    * to get data from households who didnt reply via internet or the mailer (and to charge you if you refuse to respond to the mandatory questions on the census)

    I can't imagine, even given the 1000 percent larger population, that implementing electronic data collection for canvassers to get that two percent of data would require billions of dollars to implement (the US dollar hasn't depreciated THAT much ;-). But, then again, it IS a federal government operation we're talking about, and poorly specified requirements, unbounded scope-creep and mismanagement know no bounds.

    1. Re:Canada's been there, done that by easyEmu · · Score: 1

      I wonder what the percentage of population responding was in 2006 compared to the previous Canadian census.

  54. Republicans are "Computers"? by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So how does yet another Republican boondoggle contract for an essential government service mean that "computers" will thwart the 2010 Census? Are these incompetent Republicans really just a computer simulation?

    Maybe this really is all just some kind of Y2K bug VR nightmare. Would someone please reboot Gore, so I can go back to watching _the Simpsons_ when it was still funny?

    --

    --
    make install -not war

    1. Re:Republicans are "Computers"? by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Are these incompetent [politicians] really just a computer simulation?

      Microsoft Bungle 6.0 (tm)

      Don't we wish. A simple HD reformat would do the trick.

  55. It is done elsewhere by Thelasko · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This is not new and pioneering technology. There are companies that take similar surveys for market research purposes. Have you ever been asked to take a survey at a mall? Have you ever been at a bar when a beautiful woman with a tablet computer asks you to take a survey about cigarettes? I have. The Government is wasting billions of dollars to develop technology that has existed for years.

    Why doesn't the government just outsource the whole census to a market research company and be done with it?

    --
    One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
  56. Ambiguity by illegalcortex · · Score: 1
    I think that was the OP's meaning, but it can be read either way. It all depends on what the pronoun "that" is referring to. The full context is:

    You can really just say "nine people live here, go away" and they will.

    All that information IS necessary for the government to provide all the services they provide today in a reasonable and efficient manner. So you could definitely read it as saying "that" means the information about how many people live there. Again, I don't think that's what the OP meant (mainly from the capitalization of "IS"), but I'd cut Red Jesus some slack on the possible misread. The OP could have done a bit more to make his post less ambiguous.
    1. Re:Ambiguity by Moridin42 · · Score: 1

      Even if we accept such a possibility (which is logically sound, I'm not arguing that at all), there still isn't any commentary about cutting the government off from information it requires to supply its services.

      If we read drinkypoo's post the way we both seem to believe it was meant, then I'm right to point out that is and is not are not identical expressions as I did earlier.

      If we read it as you suggest... then drinkypoo's post indicates that the number of people living there is information necessary to the efficient supply of services. Which is very likely to be true. And doesn't indicate that such information is the only information necessary.

      --
      I don't expect morality, equality, consistency, or justice from the law. I expect only legality.
  57. Re:Count Accuracy Unlikely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    On this general subject, the Census Bureau has far exceeded its authority with the American Community Survey. If any here has received this, I'm sure you know whereof I speak. Intrusive is an understatement. Here is a link to it (a pdf file on the CB's website):

    http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/SQuest08.pdf

    We decided a long time ago that we'll answer the constitutionally mandated enumeration questions only. All the additional data gathering we have ignored. From when they used such data for the WWII round up of Americans of Japanese ancestry to their recent loss of nearly 500 laptops full of data and posting of some 60 thousand peoples' data on the web (including SSNs), we simply do not trust them. Besides, I'm not about to send out unencrypted or give to some random data collector all my personal details (health, finance, home culture, travel habits, SSN, etc.).

    If you do not fill out the form, you get regular phone calls for a month - some after 10PM and some before 6AM (at least we did). Then, if you draw the short straw, you get regular visits for a month - up to twice daily near the end of the period (again, we did). Were I to do that to someone, no doubt I could be arrested.

    The bizarre thing here is, much of the data is readily available from other federal departments. But that of course is too sensible to use. Fortunately, the web is proving useful in co-ordinating the increasing resistance to this intrusion.

  58. Plenty's Wrong With Paper! by Cajun+Hell · · Score: 1

    what was wrong with paper?

    Who the hell is going to contribute to a Congresscritter's reelection campaign, if the critters only give out contracts for paper? Especially if you say it doesn't have to be nice paper. At least with "nice" paper, you can set the specs such that it matches only one company's product.

    It needs to be computers instead of paper, so that it costs enough to be worth someone's while to bid for the contract, so that they'll have reason to reward you in the next years' campaign.

    --
    "Believe me!" -- Donald Trump
  59. Damn it! by geekoid · · Score: 1

    This problem has been solved! Gdod damn contractors.
    If they are really this stupid, then they can just find out how UPS does it. I mean you need less functionality.

    AARRRGGGG

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  60. Break the Law by Jherek+Carnelian · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Census data was used to round up japanese-american citizens for interment camps during WWII:
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N.htm

    With the current "war on the unexpected" who knows how current census data will be used to abuse citizens like yourself.

  61. Good old government waste. by MaWeiTao · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They could have purchased hundreds or thousands of off-the-shelf PDAs and had a company develop a basic piece of census-tracking software for a mere fraction of what this project costs. Instead they'll argue they need some elaborate, over-priced piece of hardware under the pretense that only something so fancy can reliably handle the government's needs. The best part is that the devices might not even work properly. What in the hell are these companies doing that even with this much money thrown at them they can't do anything right?

    Still, that doesn't excuse the government's stupidity. It's like that stimulus package. As if enough money hasn't already been dumped into that some halfwit decided they needed to send out letters informing recipients that they were going to be receiving these checks. In many cases these notices will be arriving barely a month before the check arrives. Sending these letters out has cost the government over $40 million.

    It's time the government's budget were capped at the rate of inflation making allowances only for population growth. It's time they learned how to manage their expenses like the rest of us have to.

    1. Re:Good old government waste. by 91degrees · · Score: 1

      That's what I was thinking. An OLPC at $200 for each of the 600 000 workers would cost $120 million. The PCs could then be recycled and sent to poor kids overseas after the census is complete. Say another $2 million for developing the software (I think you could probably do it for about $100 000 but let's assume that counting requires some serious R&D).

      And to top it off, the census isn't really all tat useful. From a cost-benefit point of view, you can get information that's almost as good from a random sampling at a fraction of the cost.

    2. Re:Good old government waste. by arb+phd+slp · · Score: 1

      They could have purchased hundreds or thousands of off-the-shelf PDAs and had a company develop a basic piece of census-tracking software for a mere fraction of what this project costs. Instead they'll argue they need some elaborate, over-priced piece of hardware under the pretense that only something so fancy can reliably handle the government's needs.
      I was an enumerator 8 years ago and a basic PalmOS device with a custom frontend would have done the job even then. (I actually bought a Handspring with my Census money). I suppose software reliability and security would be essential, and and hardening the device against rough handling would be nice, but $2B for that???

      I don't know what "massive amounts of data" they are talking about. One enumerator can't gather more than a few kilobytes of data in one outing even on a good day. Sure, the central office needed massive bandwidth for uploading to Washington DC, but the individual census taker isn't going to have to move that much data.

      --
      There's a perfect xkcd for my sig but I'm too lazy to look it up. sudo someone go find it.
    3. Re:Good old government waste. by anjujindal · · Score: 1

      It was a good experience to read the articles and contents on this site. http://www.gujaratonnet.com/ http://www.gurgaonflowerplaza.com/

    4. Re:Good old government waste. by Hugonz · · Score: 1

      It's time the government's budget were capped at the rate of inflation making allowances only for population growth. It's time they learned how to manage their expenses like the rest of us have to.

      The government budget deficit IS the cause of the growth of the money supply and of chronic inflation. Remember they can monetize their debt (create account or actual paper dollars).

      But you're right. It is about time they learn to run without a budget deficit. Like we all do.

  62. Online Census? by f1r3f0g · · Score: 1

    We had an online census in NZ a while ago.

    From all reports, it went well.

    Had a person come to the household, with the census papers. On the papers, was a web address and a PIN code to access the online version of the census.
    If you filled out the online version, you ticked a box on the paper version, and gave it back to the nice person that collected them a week or so later.

    Didn't hear any reports about security breaches.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10371468
    Searching the site for "online census" will pull up a few more articles.

  63. Govt IT worker here..... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...posting A/C on Slashdot, naturally! Your tax dollars at work ;->

    ..what accounts for the differences in the estimate and the cost?

    Mainly, in my experience, we're required to predict 1.5 to 2 years in advance what the IT hardware and software will cost, which is a completely unworkable premise, but nonetheless our bosses order us to do it that way. We always pad the dollar figures upwards to account for the complete unpredictableness of the market by some fudge factor. Then we submit those budget estimates up to upper accounting management who completely alter the figures by some completely arbitrary and capricious amounts, almost always downwards, because that's the amount what they wish to spend, not what reality says the stuff will actually cost. Then by the time the upper management forwards their bastardized budget estimates to the executive management, the execs alter the numbers yet again to some mystery values which we have no idea whatsoever how they came up with. Then, there you have the budget estimates that actually get published. After all, the upper accounting managers and execs know far more about technology budget planning than us mere IT monkeys, since they've watched all those IBM ads on TV during the NFL games.

    What cost(s) were underestimated?

    All of them... by the time the above-detailed process has run its course.

  64. from harris.com by bluejay3132 · · Score: 1

    "Harris is committed to assisting the U.S. Census Bureau in meeting its current and future strategic goals of providing Census-related statistics with increased accuracy at a reduced cost."

    From harris.com, specifically here:
    http://www.govcomm.harris.com/solutions/marketindex/segment.asp?source=market&mkt=Database+and+Information+Systems+Integration&market_id=99&segment_id=68

    1. Re:from harris.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From the article linked by parent: "The U.S. Census Bureau Field Data Collection Automation (FDCA) program will provide advanced, automated systems that deliver data to the Census Bureau's computing systems in near real-time for integration with other data sources." Why would "near real-time" delivery of census data be necessary? We can't wait a few weeks for the last electronic uploads (or whatever) from census workers to be processed? Maybe that's part of the excessive cost, and it seems needless.

      - T

  65. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  66. OLPC to the rescue by crovira · · Score: 1

    No expensive proprietary solution required.

    --
    MSBPodcast.com The opinions expressed here are my own. If you don't like 'em... Think up your own stuff.
  67. "Mailperson"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've always thought that the gender-neutral form of postman should be "post officer".

    1. Re:"Mailperson"? by wile_e_wonka · · Score: 1

      All I know is that I get endless teenage-esque kicks out of "mail woman."

  68. Thwart, Thwarted, Thwarting, Thwarts, Thwartening, by Whiteox · · Score: 1

    Sorry... I just like the word!
    Thwart, Thwart, Thwart, Thwart, Thwart, Thwart,
    There is also Thwarter too! :)

    Main Entry: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary

    Pronunciation:
            \thwort\
    Function:
            transitive verb
    Etymology:
            Middle English thwerten, from thwert, adverb
    Date:
            13th century

    --
    Don't be apathetic. Procrastinate!
  69. Re:Count Accuracy Unlikely by Whiteox · · Score: 1

    Yup! All of us '55ers seem to have the same problem. Tend to be invisible occasionally.
    Maybe 'cause we're special? :)

    --
    Don't be apathetic. Procrastinate!
  70. Oh, is that all? by __aawkdb2598 · · Score: 1

    They'd rather spend all this money than admit that they already know all this stuff... ;)

  71. Yeah, like I want my mailman to know my girth size by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    please.

  72. I know it isn't Katherine's family's company... by unitron · · Score: 1

    ...but it still seems to me that any combination of "Harris", "Florida", "government", and "counting" is just bound to end badly.

    --

    I see even classic Slashdot is now pretty much unusable on dial up anymore.

  73. Missing explanation? by shanen · · Score: 1

    No, I didn't read the article,but I'm ready to bet a donut they're running Windows Mobile. That would explain everything.

    Google should be allowed to rebid with an Android-based solution.

    --
    Freedom = (Meaningful - Coerced) Choice != (Speech | Beer^2), and sad sock puppets' bad mods avail them naught.
  74. Just more privacy abuse by the government by RKBA · · Score: 1

    Ask any census taker what is the purpose of the census, and I'd bet a dollar to a donut they will either be wrong or will have no answer at all. As stated in Article I, Section 2 of the United States Constitution, the sole purpose of the census is to determine the number of representatives that shall be allocated to each state in the US House of Representatives. Thus, the ONLY question they are Constitutionally authorized to ask is: "How many voting adults live in this household." That is all they need to know for Constitutional purposes and that's the only information I've ever given to them or ever will. Don't be such damn sheeple, people.

  75. Ridiculous and Absurd. by znerk · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Originally, I had titled this post "Flamebait, my ass."
    Then, I decided that "Censorship ftw!" was a good subject line.
    Finally, I chose to put forth my own ideas, and rant about the modding as an aside.

    Feel free to skip over my rant by jumping down past "Rant Off" (marked in bold) to "My own take on the subject" (also in bold), but please do consider actually reading it, as I feel it adds to the discussion (Of course I feel that way because they're my own opinions. Your level of agreement may vary). Of course, I fully expect to be joining the above-mentioned posts in "modded to negative" land. (Who needs karma?)

    Rant On:

    Apparently, we here at Slashdot think censorship is ok.
    Apparently, "-1, Flamebait" is a good substitute for "I disagree, and am too lazy to reply."

    I wish I hadn't spent my mod points yesterday. If nothing else, I would have counteracted the "-1, Flamebait" with a "+1, Insightful", or a "+1, Funny" at the least. I'm not saying these posts need a +5, but a +2 would have been about right. I'm also not saying these score any technical points for grammar or punctuation, and they're a bit crude for my taste, but the sentiment and opinions being expressed are just and proper, and any citizen of the United States should feel a similar level of outrage at this blatant abuse (the stuff mentioned in the article, not the treatment these posts have received).

    I am repeating the posts I feel were modded unfairly, because without their context, my own post makes much less sense... and anyone browsing at a level higher than "-1" won't see the posts I am replying to with this one. My own "translation" of the intent of the posts (which may be wrong, of course, but I feel they're fairly accurate) follows each quoted post, in italics.

    Flagrant Corruption (Score:-1)
    by the0ther (720331) on Wednesday March 26, @03:52PM (#22873934) Homepage
    two billion dollars? are you effing kidding me? let's go back to the good old days when they would hang a man for stealing a horse.

    This is a reference to the blatant and obvious theft, mismanagement, and/or fraud involved in this situation.

    I agree (Score:-1, Flamebait)
    by Lilith's Heart-shape (1224784) on Wednesday March 26, @03:59PM (#22874042)
    You're right, and the people modding you down are full of shit. Two billion dollars for a census is unforgivable, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if some of Bush's cronies had stock in Harris. You're right; we should go back to the days when horse thieves were hanged, the days when the tax regime we have now would provoke widespread insurrection.
    --
    Arioch! Arioch! Hookers and blow for my lord Arioch!

    This is an agreement with the first post, and a disagreement with those who modded the first post down. There is also an insinuation of corruption in our government (surprise), and a statement that patriotism should be spurring on those of us who feel likewise to *do something* (Boston Tea Party, anyone?)

    I would like to point out that, while crude, both of these posts have valid points. I, too, agree that this ("this" being the topic of the article... remember? that blurb at the top of the page?) is an obvious sign of corruption, and just one more thing to add to the list of items to redress when we begin standing those people responsible for the mess our country is in against the wall.

    To those of you who didn't catch the gist of this thread:

    The GP was shocked and offended that someone is getting away with this obvious fraud and mismanagement, and no one is being held accountable for this gross oversight (or lack thereof). The comment about horse thieves may have been an attempt at tossing a little humor into the mix, to take the sting out a bit.

    This post's parent made the (apparently unforgiveable) mistake of agreeing with that sentiment, and got modded (Can you see the incredulous look on my face? Unbelievable!) Flamebait for it.

    --
    This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
  76. The real problem... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Note: I live in the city that is the home of Harris' main offices. These devices were developed here.

    According to some employees I have spoken to, these devices are basically ready for use, within the current budget. They're going through extensive testing at the moment, but all in all the devices work, and work well. The problem lies in the use of the device, apparently it requires a bit of training (estimated at 30 minutes). This was deemed unacceptable to the census bureau, so we have this problem.

    I don't think 30 minutes of training on a device before a months long census is that big of a deal, but this is the real problem.

  77. Woooosh! by PMBjornerud · · Score: 1

    Grandparent was obviously joking. I have no idea why so many replied...

    --
    I lost my sig.
  78. Harris Sucks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They have some really cool video stuff, but their "professional and government services" really blow. We paid maintainance on a piece of their half-working software for like 4 years without an upgrade and their tech support was useless.