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New Research Forecasts Global 6C Increase By End of Century
jamie writes with this snippet from the UK's Independent:
"The world is now firmly on course for the worst-case scenario in terms of climate change, with average global temperatures rising by up to 6C by the end of the century, leading scientists said yesterday. ... [The study] found that there has been a 29 per cent increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008, the last year for which figures are available. On average, the researchers found, there was an annual increase in emissions of just over 3 per cent during the period, compared with an annual increase of 1 per cent between 1990 and 2000. Almost all of the increase this decade occurred after 2000 and resulted from the boom in the Chinese economy. The researchers predict a small decrease this year due to the recession, but further increases from 2010."
How do they know if the CO2 is from fossil fuels or from natural sources, is there actually a test for this?
Some people are only alive because it's against the law for me to hunt them down and kill them.
For many years to come one will wonder if the data presented to support claims such as this has been "tricked" to conform to someone's belief instead of representing reality.
Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out. - Cardinal Wolsey
At least we now have some falsifiability in this.
IF the forecast temperature rise is 6C per century, then it is .6C per decade. Let's see what we have so far:
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#msu_decadal_trends
Unlike Hadley, RSS uses satellite data, is consistent, and is open. They DO report a current trend of .15K per decade. This is far lower than the forecast.
This is my sig.
29 per cent increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008
You have *got* to be kidding me? What about all this emissions stuff they've been strapping to my engine?
Those crappy "Eco-Friendly" disposable cups and cutlery my employer's been stocking up on?
The recycled-paper-everything?
The ethanol they've put in my gas?
Those tiny cars I have to dodge around the highways?
All this has been for naught?
To hell with the hippies and their soy meat, time to go light some tires on fire or something....
"When I am king, you will be first against the wall..."
For those to lazy to multiply, that's a 10.8 degree Fahrenheit increase in the mean global temperature.
Sounds pretty alarming.
jdb2
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I sort of believe in climate change, but at this point in time, a day after we all got to learn that the top-institute for climate-change knowingly and willingly changed the numbers, lied... I can not take this serious. First I want to know how much has been fabricated and lied. After that, I might support this type of research again, but only after all the liars are banned from 'research'.
that the weather forecast is always right.
Oh wait, I thought it was supposed to be raining today?!?
All the emissions stuff they have strapped to your engine are to control particulate emissions. The combustion, or the operation of the engine itself, is what they are after. IF anything, cleaning up the soot from your engine probably made asthma sufferers worse and also increased the planetary temperature because nature can deal with larger particulates better than it can the really tiny aerosols. So basically, in order to be able to have motive power and not have all of our buildings and trees stained black, we've torched the planet. The hippies screwed up, but so did we.
Woops.
This is my sig.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/11/20/cru_climate_hack/
Relevant to this story.
So there I was, scribbling down some notes off the PC screen by hand, when I reached for the keyboard and Ctrl-S'd.
Unfortunately that's the way it looks from here, Vietnam a developing country which is almost all coastline.
Well as long as the methane clathrates don't thaw releasing their gigatons of methane we won't kill off ALL of the rest of the biosphere. (At least that's what my scientist friends are saying, we're far from that doomsday scenario). Still millions will die and millions of species will go extinct but most of us rich northern hemispherians (N. America, Europe, E. Asia) will do okay.
Glad that Florida will be underwater though. I guess Walt Disney knew better than all of us when he put the Experimental Prototype City of Tomorrow there. Now I know why he predicted we'd be living underwater!
he researchers predict a small decrease this year due to the recession, but further increases from 2010.
So now our environmental scientists are making economic forcasets
And by the way, let's jump to conclusion, blame the chinese, after all, they love eating dogs who poop a lot, and that has to produce a lot of methane! Also as we all know, since 2000 all of china got big cars, and huge freezers, and use 250L of water per day.
It's also a known fact that since the advent of fuzzy computers, scientists have been able to run models so good they can predict climatic trends on a century basis. Now I even know where to be for my 50th birthday to see snow.(the last snow on earth apparently, because by then it'll be so hot even the poles will look like hell)
nor to the statistician modifying data values.
We think it might be the multiple of a groat, furlong and an acre foot.
I wonder whether there is correlation between those who still use Fahrenheit exclusively and those who pretend that there is no such thing as man made climate change...
I'll see your Constitution and raise you a Queen.
It's even better - the source cited in the story above is the CRU (funny how "University of East Anglia" started being the source when everyone found out that CRU was more than a bit corrupt) - the same people who just got busted with all of that leaked data and incriminating emails just this week.
So they apparently decided to double down on their predictions, instead of trying to pretend nothing happened - but hiding the provenance.
Anyone want to bet the lead author on the paper wasn't the lead author last week, and got "promoted" when the real researchers' names were tainted?
This is complete rubbish. Carbon has 3 naturally occuring isotopes. There are differences based on the ratio of carbon isotopes.
If this refers to the 'triks' dug out in private mails from so-called hack in the mailsystem of CRU -which actually shows signs of an inside job-, check the response at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/ . Hint: quotemining.
See my previous reply. True, I had completely forgotton about isotopes. But I'm doubtful that you could turn this into a useful test of atmosphereic CO2 composition. Even if you can, does anyone argue about the source anyway? I don't see anyone arguing this point.
But assuming I could live until the age of a thousand, what's the worst case scenario assuming things continue as they are? Since oil and coal came from living things, it seems there's a limit to how much burning it all could affect our atmosphere. I'm guessing most of it came from the atmosphere in the first place, and that living things were not combining carbon and oxygen from geological sources. Are we in for a doomsday scenario that wipes out all life? It seems, at worst, things will get a bit warmer, and perhaps a bit wetter.
The researchers predict a small decrease this year due to the recession, but further increases from 2010. "
Interesting that a historically rather serious recession can only cause a small decrease. It seems like cutting CO2 back to the levels needed to stop global warming would require or cause a much more serious recession.
In fact it's very noticable that now everyone is worried about a 30's style global depression pretty much everyone has stopped talking about cutting CO2 emissions in a follow up to Kyoto.
Not that Kyoto cut CO2 of course
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol#Increase_in_greenhouse_gas_emission_since_1990
World CO2 emissions went up by 38% from 1992 to 2007. The US refused to sign, India and China were exempt and in the EU
As of year-end 2006, the United Kingdom and Sweden were the only EU countries on pace to meet their Kyoto emissions commitments by 2010. While UN statistics indicate that, as a group, the 36 Kyoto signatory countries can meet the 5% reduction target by 2012, most of the progress in greenhouse gas reduction has come from the stark decline in Eastern European countries' emissions after the fall of communism in the 1990s
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
'Climate models predict disaster' is not news. Climate model always predict disaster.
'1999 climate model validated by 10 years of actual data'. *That* would be news.
I can't help but wonder why this report surfaced just before the Copenhagen talks.
It's almost like someone was trying to influence the outcome of those talks by dropping in a really dire prediction of the results if the talks didn't come out the way they wanted them to.
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
It is not only the estimates of temperature increase that are rising, but so are the uncertainties. We know very little about how the feedback cycles work once the temperature changes so many degrees, and we know next to nothing about how they work when faced with such quick changes. We do not know how much methane hydrate there is stored on the ocean floor, but we do know there is a lot of it and that an eruption of it 55 million years ago was at least in part responsible for a 6 degree C rise in global temperatures. It is also thought that the biggest mass extinction event ever was caused by massive volcanism and methane hydrate release. There is plenty of evidence that large parts of the ocean can and have previously become anoxic during climate changes. This is really bad news not only for everything that lives in the ocean, but also for us since a large part of our food supply comes from the ocean.
Basically, we are getting into a territory where all bets are off, and it is not good news for humanity. I am linking to wikipedia since that is good place to start to read up on this stuff and find links to the actual research.
A predicted 6 degrees Celsius rise in a century? Oh, how scary! Let's introduce onerous carbon-curbing measures.
But wait, the models that make these predictions all have CO2 as the driving factor behind climate change. The historical record shows, however, that the atmospheric CO2 concentration follows changes in global temperature instead of leads it. Not surprising: higher temperature -> oceans heat up -> less dissolved CO2.
Moreover, there is a perfectly plausible alternative explanation for what is causing the rapid climate fluctuations (historically going both up and down on a fairly short timescale): the sun. If you include the EUV and X-Ray bands of the spectrum, it becomes obvious that the sun's output changes much more than it is being given credit for: http://www.usc.edu/dept/space_science/sem_data/SEM%20Data%20Graphs/SEM_1996-2009.jpg
There was no lying. People who already doubt the results pull a sentence out of context, demand that we all forget normal idiomatic uses of English words in that sentence, and then claim that it is an indication of falsified data. That is all, nothing to see here, move along.
Palm trees and 8
20 million tons generates approximately 0.5 degrees of cooling when in the upper atmosphere.
We'd have to loft 240 million tons of SO2, which could buy us time to clean up the CO2
Of course one would want some safety measure in case an actual volcano erupted.
So loft 200 tons.
Hot sulfuric acid and copper shavings, you could make it at home.
I have a couple of issues with the article (actually more, but this is for starters...)
1. If the vast majority of increases is due to Chinese economic expansion, why are we targeting USA and EU for further cuts in emissions...ever heard of Pareto's law? Oh, yeah...the point of the Copenhagen meeting is to extract more wealth from the "rich" nations to give to the poor dictatorships...
2. If the melting of all the polar ice is going to occur, and sea levels will rise that much, seems to me the "highly desirable" location of the British Isles will be underwater...or is it going to preferentially not rise there? I note the cover of Algore's new book which was photoshopped to add four hurricanes (one of which is rotating the wrong direction) and the polar ice cap all "melted" in spite of snow and ice cover in extreme northern Canada, and finally Cuba completely submerged...(can't believe Algore would do that to his commie buddies)
How stupid do they think we are?
And yet another idiot proves he can take quotes out of context and is too lazy to educate himself on what was actually being discussed.
See the posts above linking to the response from the people involved. Moron.
The century ends after 23:59:59 on December 31, 2100AD (not the year before as some think)
2100 ad is not a leap year
6C is 108 decimal or l in ascii
Then maybe England and Sweden will be able to resume their wine production as they did before the Medieval ice age.
Make a chart yourself.
Chart the increase in Carbon Dioxide
and the temperatures you can get from Hadley CRU
If you make this chart, you'll find a poor correlation over the last decade, where this 28% increase in carbon dioxide occurred.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYLmLW4k4aI yes, all that. and then our magical input with just a few parts of a million.
>>Nonsense. This is only true if it's a linear relationship. Given that the greenhouse effect involves a complex feedback cycle, that is not a valid assumption.
Yes, as we all know from Al Gore's memorable definition of what a "non-linear system" is: "It's a fancy way they have of saying that the changes are not all just gradual. Some of them come suddenly in big jumps."
I used to work doing modeling of both ocean seawater and other things (like heart cells or full cardiac cycles) which attempted to accurately simulate whatever ODE or whatever it was we were simulating. These models were incredibly sensitive to the various constants used, and what the starting assumptions were. They'd fly off into incoherent-land if these values were not very precise, or if the constants didn't match each other. The only way we could calibrate or test our simulation was by, say, pulling out a rabbit's heart, wiring it up, flooding it with some solution, and having the severed heart beat for us when driven by impulses at different frequencies and amplitude. Testing and experimentation is the only way to truly know something, as Feynman said. If we just relied on the models without doing followup experimentation with them, we'd have gotten wildly inaccurate results.
Climatology, on the other hand, is "science-y", but not really science. It wants to be science, it really does - and goes through the window dressings of having peer reviewed journals and conferences and all of that - but ultimately it is not science. There is no experimentation involved (or if you will, there is one large experiment running all the time), and there is no control for the experiment. Forgive me if I do not allow your models to substitute for actual experimentation, for the reasons listed above.
As one of my professors once said, never listen to anyone who claims to be really accurate over the sample data set. It's real easy to be accurate on a sample data set. Hell, you can always just spit back out the original numbers if you want - for my neural net spam filter, we could have just returned the classifications of each email and claimed 100% accuracy, for example. If you don't think that climate researchers actually make bullshit claims like this, check out the wikipedia page on global climate modeling, and look at, say, this graph: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GCM_temp_anomalies_3_2000.jpg There's charts like that everywhere on wikipedia, showing how accurate the climate models are, even back in 1930, decades before the models were created.
What is important is the accuracy going forward into new data, and as they do, they've found numerous glaring problems with the predictive ability of climate models (such as rainfall changes being 25% of what is expected). (For some fun laughs, read predictions of what life would be like in 2010 written 10, 20 or 30 years ago.)
The simple fact of the matter is, I don't believe any (self-described) scientist who claims he knows how much temperature will move in the next 100 years, unless he says it will range somewhere between absolute zero and the temperature of the sun.
And if it sounds like I'm picking on climate "scientists", well, I am, but I had a number of friends who worked in the field at SIO, and they're generally smart and nice guys, and think there's a serious problem. Their problem lies in claiming more knowledge than they actually know. (Again, this is not how actual science works.) And it's not like other fields have looked enviously at the tremendous success of real scientific fields, like physics, over the last hundred years. Psychology, sociology, hell even scientology and philosophy have tried to co-opt the patina of science for themselves. (Nearly every modern philosopher since Wittgenstein calls themselves an analytic philosopher, which was a movement to directly make philosophy more "scientific" and less heads-in-the-cloudsy.)
This is an absolutely classic post that represents everything that is wrong with AGW believers. The biggest scientific fraud of the century, and all you do is hurl insults.
If the data shows AGW, then it's correct. If the data doesn't show AGW, then the research is funded by the oil industry.
If the scientists say they are fabricating data, then they're not fabricating data, because their AGW theories already prove that the data is correct. Clearly the quote is taken out of context.
The fabricated data makes complete sense. The fabricated data matches the theoretical mechanisms. You are just looking for a way to defend your religion against evidence and facts. Now please take a deep breath and call us all denialists and Nazis.
And I can find a study that says the world will be colder in a century. It all depends on the agenda I want to push.
Why do people use the term Global Warming. It is a misleading term that does not properly identify what is happening to our planet. The fact is that the atmosphere is variable and will continue to fluctuate in terms of average temperature.
:)
The real problem we are facing is rising sea TEMPERATURES. Here's just one technical article that studies the effects of rising sea temperatures on phytoplankton on Australia's coastline: http://www.int-res.com/articles/feature/m394p001.pdf If you search the http://www.int-res.com/ site you'll find a lot more really technical research articles that are great reads if you like this stuff
Rising sea temperatures mess up the sea currents and make fish search out better habitats (or die), perhaps because of the rising temperature itself, or maybe because their food supply is damaged (due to phytoplankton dieoff). If something doesn't change soon, we are in danger of losing vast populations in the ocean. This will have huge repercussions on our global food supply.
In the end, it doesn't matter if we are the ones causing it, or the sun is. Who cares. It is a complex system, and you can prove, through science, that carbon emissions directly affect sea temperatures. Maybe it's miniscule. Maybe it's not, but we have to do something or we are in severe danger of entirely losing our oceans.
Imagine if the seafood industry went belly up. It would cause a worldwide depression the likes of which we have not seen or dreamed of, especially for areas that depend heavily on the ocean for their nation's food supply.
AT THE VERY LEAST, if we are not going to reduce carbon emissions or whatever we can to reduce the effect on oceans, we need to have an actionable plan for what to do once the oceans die. Because it will happen if this trend continues. Having a plan doesn't mean it's going to be used, but we need to be able to continue functioning as a species if it does!
Mod parent Troll or Flamebait. For reason, see the reply below by Laxitive (10360). Basicly quoting something from a study with no context. And then taking this no context sentence to make some sort of statement about the data used by professionals in global warming analysis.
**Disclaimer, I am not for or against the existence of global warming. I have not studied it enough to form my own view, based on fact. But I am strongly against people fucking with science and its credibility, unless there is a valid argument being made, in which case I am for it. There is no valid argument here. And I'm AC because I already moderated.
Honestly, i don't get the 'hoax' tag, the doom&gloom tag or even fear mongering could be seen as appropriate, but hoax?
Based on the knowledge we have, there isglobal warming going on, you can argue all you want, but temperatures are going up regardless of what you say about that.
However, these are conclusions based on our limited knowledge of the world & how it's climate works completely, it's possible that global warming is part of a normal cycle, it's possible it's due to sun output (although very unlikely, we should've detected that already), and yes, it's possible that mankind is contributing to the problem.
Given that we have measured & observed temperature rise, and given that we know pollution & CO2 emissions have a negative effect on the climate, why shouldn't we do our best to limit both pollution & emissions? Regardless of the question if we are solely to blame for the problem?
Hell, it's the air we breathe in, the water we drink, and the food we eat, why do we as a species insist on 'peeing in the pool we drink from'?
" ...
Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Josep G. Canadell, Gregg Marland et al.24
Abstract ..."
Efforts to control climate change require the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This can only be achieved through a drastic reduction of global CO2 emissions. Yet fossil fuel emissions increased by 29% between 2000 and 2008, in conjunction with increased contributions from emerging economies, from the production and international trade of goods and services, and from the use of coal as a fuel source. In contrast, emissions from land-use changes were nearly constant. Between 1959 and 2008, 43% of each year's CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere on average; the rest was absorbed by carbon sinks on land and in the oceans. In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely increased, from about 40% to 45%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake of CO2 by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability. Changes in the CO2 sinks are highly uncertain, but they could have a significant influence on future atmospheric CO2 levels. It is therefore crucial to reduce the uncertainties.
Not a word in the abstract about 6 degrees of anything.
I haven't seen anyone mention this yet...how can they say the temperature is going to rise 6C based on these CO2 levels? Do they have a working simulation of the global climate? As far as I know, they don't even have conclusive evidence that CO2 causes warming yet. The global climate is far too complex to predict to that degree of accuracy, especially when we're adding factors to it that can't be modeled based on historical trends.
With current advancements in internet and virtual reality, maybe a way to stop polluting/emiting greenhouse gases and/or survive to global heathing is to attach ourselves to machines and live a virtual life there, with minimal energy requirements, low pollution, letting the planet heal itself. And tell the machines that guard us to tell anyone who asked that they are dominating and using us to generate energy to not blame the human architects that designed that brilliant plan.
The only problem could happen is if some idiots want to keep screwing our climate funding a polluting underground city and driving around ships, but we can build an alternate virtual reality s specifically for them, with gateways with the main one.
For those who are interested in how climate change is being marketed, a while back I wrote a piece called "An Inconvenient Truth?" that is an analysis of some of the charts and diagrams in Al Gore's book and movie from an information design perspective. The bottom line is that Al Gore used every trick in the book to try to strengthen his case.
The recent CRU e-mails explain some some of the things I point out in the piece.
Yes, and while that's good in the short term, that's not a good thing in the long run. Why? Because the negative feedback pushes us back towards a lower temperature stable state for now. That means we see only limited changes for now. People think nothing is happening and don't change their behavior.
But at some point, we will be in the attractor for a different stable state, and then positive feedback will rapidly move us to a stable state at a higher temperature. That's mathematically and physically inevitable; the only unknown is the point at which that happens.
There's also likely to be hysteresis, meaning that we won't be able to get back to our current state easily.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/#more-1853
No doubt, instances of cherry-picked and poorly-worded “gotcha” phrases will be pulled out of context. One example is worth mentioning quickly. Phil Jones in discussing the presentation of temperature reconstructions stated that “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.” The paper in question is the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) Nature paper on the original multiproxy temperature reconstruction, and the ‘trick’ is just to plot the instrumental records along with reconstruction so that the context of the recent warming is clear. Scientists often use the term “trick” to refer to a “a good way to deal with a problem”, rather than something that is “secret”, and so there is nothing problematic in this at all. As for the ‘decline’, it is well known that Keith Briffa’s maximum latewood tree ring density proxy diverges from the temperature records after 1960 (this is more commonly known as the “divergence problem”–see e.g. the recent discussion in this paper) and has been discussed in the literature since Briffa et al in Nature in 1998 (Nature, 391, 678-682). Those authors have always recommend not using the post 1960 part of their reconstruction, and so while ‘hiding’ is probably a poor choice of words (since it is ‘hidden’ in plain sight), not using the data in the plot is completely appropriate, as is further research to understand why this happens.
There hasn't even been a hint in the emails about any data being falsified. If there had been, the "climate change sceptics" wouldn't try to use quotes such as that one. Now, however, they simply have nothing real to show us.
The real science in the article is the measurement of the CO2 levels and their trends. Taking this information and extrapolating it to temperature changes is conjecture. You can call it SWAG (Scientific Wild A** Guessing), but it is still a guess until they can put together a mathematical model for global temperature prediction that is open, peer reviewed, and tested with control data to confirm it is accurate. Let's look at this information and instead ask, if we think CO2 is warming the planet and we want to avoid that, what can be done to contain the meteoric rise of CO2 from China and India? This is an engineer's point of view, but it seemed pretty short sighted to take good raw data and obscure it by presentation with an unproven conclusion. Split your actual data from your speculation and you help the community out a lot more than this does.
Gosh and to think all the stats and indicators show we're about to enter one of the coldest times in the last 200 years, not warmest. Great going CO2 folks!
"Almost all of the increase this decade occurred after 2000..."
Is anyone else as confused by this statement as I am? I'm pretty sure *everything* that's happened this decade has happened after 2000 ...
This is just sad. I think it's pretty much certain at this point that humanity is going to destroy itself. We clearly don't have the will or foresight to do anything about stopping a run away green house effect on Earth that will end life as we know it, all because we'd rather be able to do our daily 60 mile commute to the exburbs in our SUB and pay a few dollars less for crappy electronics from China, than do something that benefits the survival of those who will live after us. Like the numerous pacific island civilizations that destroyed themselves hundreds of years ago by over consumption of resources on their island, it seems inevitable now that the same fate awaits the rest of civilization. Whether ignorance or just not caring, the politicization of global warming is going to be the end of all of us. It defies all rational, intellectual thought. If we do manage to somehow stop it, I have no doubt that the right wingers that are stopping climate change today will be remembered in history with about as much respect as the right wingers of the Middle Age who denied the Earth orbited the sun.
So, how can we solve it?
The 2'nd above requires that it be a percentage based on how much CO2 is from your area based on sat measurements ( and skip the garbage about population; that is about spreading responsibility; it will not happen). In addition, it has to be known that the base amount will grow. BUT, by allowing other nations to clean up their act, they can lower the amount that they pay.
This is probably the ONLY fix for all this. WHy? Because it prevents politicians from cheating. It keeps pols from claiming that another nation is emitting more, and they will. The reason is that this is measurable by sats, it can be easily seen by all.
In addition, it takes into account ALL EMISSIONS. Want to lower it, but can not cut back on CO2 right now? Plants trees. Route the CO2 from cement and power plants to algae and greenhouses.
Until a nation has the courage to do this, nothing will change. It is only when ALL NATIONS have to partake, will it change things.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
A whistleblower published the East Anglia Climate Research Unit emails.
Global Warming is a fraud, designed to gain tax free government grants.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
ur so stooooooooopid
"World leaders" are puppets of their various central banksters and traders. I think this is beyond obvious now, not even debatable. Now those guys *want* carbon credits trading, it is a way for them to make huge sums gambling without doing any actual work themselves, and being bankrolled by everyone else who *are* working, (about the same as now, just a new direction and game to play).. They tell the "world leaders" the tradeoff for getting them this new lucrative game is they get a slew more laws to pass to use over the heads of their serfs and subjects.
So, to answer your question "And how are world leaders likely to respond if the temperature drops during the 2010s?"..they will ignore it if this happens, say it is just a temporary condition, etc. Because they want and are getting those credits for the new market, plus they want even more centralized power.
note: the above has nothing to do with any scientific reality of ratio from naturally occurring co2 or "man made", etc, or the climate, I'm not making this a stance one way or the other on the subject, just saying what will happen with the world leaders. Climate change is irrelevant to the two top new things they-"they" being the puppets and their puppet masters- *always* want, more money and more power.
How do they know if the CO2 is from fossil fuels or from natural sources, is there actually a test for this?
CO2 is a molecule, containing one carbon atom and two oxygen atoms. One CO2 molecule is indistinguishable from another
Not at all. Carbon has three major isotopes. Carbon-14 is produced by nuclear reactions in the atmosphere, but decays with a half life of 5730 years, so fossil carbon has zero carbon-14. So, actually, all carbon dioxide molecules are not identical, and, in fact, you can tell which ones come from fossil sources.
However, if you look at the graphs of carbon dioxide concentation in the atmosphere, it's pretty hard to come up with any explanation other than that the carbon dioxide change comes from human activity.
(I'm sure the fringe can come up with some explanation. When you don't have to worry about plausibility or data, there's always some explanation to come up with.)
Right, I also found http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm which contains a good explanation of isotopic measurements of atmospheric carbon.
By the way - no amount of steel wool will clean the image of that video from your retinas. It's wonderful and terror inducing at the same time.
RS
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
For the record, realclimate is run by one of the very people with emails in the liberated data, and he is very very worried.
"His name was James Damore."
Science is defined by the scientific method. You put forward theories, work out predictions based on those theories, and then test those predictions. Then -- and this is the important part -- if the predictions of your theory fails to meet the facts, YOU DISCARD THE THEORY.
The simple fact is that the climate models used to predict catastrophic global warming are not predictive. Their predictions have not matched reality to date -- for example, none of them predicted the mild cooling of the last 10 years -- and so these models and the theories behind them can now be considered falsified. Clinging to a belief in the face of contrary evidence is the hallmark of religion, not science.
Nonsense. This is only true if it's a linear relationship. Given that the greenhouse effect involves a complex feedback cycle, that is not a valid assumption.
So it can be an exponential function, whatever, but you can either give me intermediate steps of some kind between now and 6C, perhaps by year, or certainly by decade, or you cannot. If you cannot, then quit trying to pretend that 6C actually means something because it means your number is crap. If you want me to believe in it, then that's fine, but you are making a religious argument, not a scientific one. Science is for things that you can test, and the moment you told me you cannot test 6C, you told me that it wasn't science.
This is my sig.
Virtually everyone admits that temperatures have increased substantially over the last ~100 years. The entire point of these reconstructions is to demonstrate that this rise is unprecedented over the past ~2K years and follows a certain pattern. If the same methods on the same species of tree in the same area in the same study not only fail to accurately replicate the thermometer record over the last several decades but also actually diverge substantially, this calls into question the entire pursuit.
In other words, if your methodology suggests that it couldn't have been warmer from 0 BC to 1900 because tree rings were not statistically larger, but the rings actually fail to increase as predicted in recent history when we know it has warmed, then this strongly indicates that we also cannot rely on warmer past temperatures to be accurately reflected in increased tree ring size either. Of course you can speculate that pollution may be playing a role, but it is still just speculation and there are better documented conclusions one could draw from this, e.g., that tree rings do not correlate linearly with temperature, that changes in moisture content, sunshine, CO2, etc play an equally large role, etc.
Good non-politicized science should: pick a methodology; show how it correlates with the actual thermometer record; then document it clearly for better or worse over the entire course, i.e., actually show the divergence (and make the data and methods available for all for review). These so-called "scientists" actually went to the other extreme by trying to hide the divergence and present a view that was not supported by their actual research. Many of these same scientists have gone further still by refusing reasonable requests for the raw data and further information on their methods.
This is politicized "science" at its very worst.
You can drive whatever car you like for all I care. But you better compensate the rest of us if you damage our mutual environment.
So, what gives you the right to say that the environment is yours? If you can claim a right to say how it should be disposed, then, I have the same right too.
But...I say the atmosphere is mine, and really, you ought to be mailing me a check for even breathing.
This is my sig.
Considering that our only real alternatives (Nuclear, solar farms, on/off shore wind farms) are being blocked by aging liberal hippie douches, we are most assuredly screwed.
Well, you can. Fossil fuel has (nearly) no C14, as C14 is generated in the atmosphere and decays quickly. Fossil fuel has very little C13, as biological processes in most plants prefer C12 to C13, and fossil fuels are created from previous animal (i.e. recycled plant) and plant matter. Yes, the total carbon flux is much bigger than the human contribution, but we can measure isotope ratios very precisely. This was predicted and measured quite a while before global warming became a significant concern, as it also puts C14 ages off if not corrected for. See Suess effect, named after the chemist who described this in the 1950s.
Stephan
My population model shows that in 100 years, 98% of everyone on earth right now will be dead. Obviously, we need to stop all human activity before this event!
Of course the global warming hysterics true tyrannical intentions have been unmasked. Stories like this have zero credibility and do not belong in the politics not science section. How about a story about a space elevator?
an ill wind that blows no good
Then you're part of the problem.
If you don't think it's real, what did bleach all the coral then? Why is that entire country sinking into the sea and buying other land to move to? Magic? The new Twilight movie? This is the same idiotic non-believer crap as the "we didn't land on the moon" theory. Hey, get out your telescope, look up at the moon, and see the laser-bouncing we put there. How did it get there? Hmmmm.
Google's Super Secret Search Algorithm: SELECT @search_results FROM internet WHERE @search_results = 'good'
That whatever climate change is supposed to be, the proper way to deal with it is observe how the climate is changing, then adapt to a changing environment?
Where where all the climatologists when humans learned agriculture and started wantonly destroying the existing habitats wherever they lived?
Would that be because almost all of this decade was after 2000? Who comes up with these brilliant insights, I wonder.
Karma fed to this user will be promptly burnt. Be warned; be wary.
Rockoon, yes he is actually spending a lot of time on clarifying the issue against a shitload of thugs like you that try to distract us from the real problem.
Given the happenings of the past couple of days, I think it is pertinent at least at this time for the University of Anglia to release the data that was used in the study and the algorithm used to calculate the 6c/century figures. Let independent scientists verify that the algorithm actually works and does give the purported result.
Or are we still expected to believe the 6c figures because they said so?
If this study were accurate,
Temperatures would have been 30C higher in the distant past when CO2 levels were 4,500 ppm for example. What did we have at this time period instead, one of the biggest ice ages ever.
You can not believe this people. It has always been extreme exagerration.
Yeah... I'm gonna have to call bullshit on this one. That outcast is way beyond the capability of the climatemodels we have today.
I thought we were running out of coal and oil. Won't the problem sort of solve it's self once that happens?
I welcome the return of the Mesozoic temperatures. A worldwide reptile paradise.
Do you know how much the sea level rose in the twentieth century? 8 cm. almost nothing.
If an island is sinking below the sea, it is because it is literally sinking. There are islands where people can't live any more because they basically mined the island away. The islanders that were there were brought in to mine the guano (bird poop) around a century ago and their job is now done.
the quality of peer reviewed depends on the ... peers.
the fan boys don't understand how dark the 'scientific society' is. ordinarily they are just producing garbage papers in exchange for a living. that is harmless, until a few of them decides to change the world.
the reliability of climate models is less than economic models, and the latter is pure nonsense.
And almost everyone who says "but it's been hotter before" miss this crucial point. Thank you.
If you are reading this, then you are probably under 45 years old.
I think the average life expectancy is rising - currently 75 years old or so in most Western countries - for men.
But more importantly medicine is going through an exponential increase in its abilities. It hasn't yet reached microprocessor rates of doubling every 18 months, but we certainly have learned more in about the last 20 or 30 years about how the human body works than we learned in all of history before that.
This strongly suggests that the average life expectancy will start rising exponentially too, with a lag to account for the development of applications from the basic discoveries.
So it is not unreasonable to expect some of you reading this to live to 150, barring any nasty accidents. And that means that climate change will have a direct impact on your life. You may have to live through mass starvation, wars fought over resources like water, extinction of once common species and the rise of diseases once only found in the tropics.
So, whether or not it's a totally proven phenomenon is irrelevant - _you_ personally can't afford to act as if it is unproven: you need to take personal action now, in the hope that it will help to mitigate the consequences.
We as a species need to learn the lessons of all the previous civilisations that have managed to extinguish themselves through resource starvation; don't spend time arguing that it may not be happening - act as if it is while hoping that it's not. Definitely carrying on with research at the same time. Maybe we will show that it's not happening, and that would be fantastic, but we can't wait for that.
So it is not unreasonable to expect some of you reading this to live to 150, barring any nasty accidents.
You do realize that there are health and life insurance industries that will do everything they can to prevent this?
If you keep saying stupid things, people are going to call you an idiot. Deal with it.
Mass extinctions have occured naturally in the past, and usually there's no known external event (the end of the dinosaurs is an exception)
Ah yes, that class of animals that had large bulky bodies, ate huge amounts of food, and had relatively small brains with primitive instincts... No wonder they were vulnerable to extinction.
Oh, I got carried away -- you were talking about the dinosaurs, not humans.
The first chart is nice, but it tells only a litte, because we don't have an absolute scale. It shows an increase, but I'd rather like to see it unnormalized - on the *Kelvin* scale, I might add.
Fact: Celsius and Fahrenheit are convenience units only, because they cannot show any ratio at all. A room temperature of 20 degrees Celsius is NOT the double of 10 degrees Celsius. Boiling water (1 liter at 100 C) does not contain 5 times the energy of the same amount of water at room temperature (1 l at 20C) - this is often overlooked when using Celsius or Fahrenheit based units.
Since the graph shown is normalized but conspicously omits its average or center. Now I assume the world average temperature is somewhere in the range of 10 to 20 degrees Celsius, but the exact value doesn't really matter as we will see right now.
We have a delta-t = 1 Kelvin with a base average of t-0 = [258; 268] K over a solid 100 years. If the world temperature average was 258 Kelvin in 1880, it is 259 Kelvin in 2000.
Fact: That means we have, on average, a temperature increase of 1K per 100 years, or an increase of 0,39 percent over ONE HUNDRED years.
Fact: Every year, the temperature rose on average 0.01K or 0.0039 percent.
Fact: Temperature differences of less than 0.01 K require very sensitive equipment to be measured correctly.
Question: did we had such sensitive equipment deployed worldwide back in 1880 or in 1960?.
Fact: For the age 1880 to 1960, all temperature gauges had to be read optically and written down manually.
Error range estimate: assuming we had 200 worldwide temperature stations with each of them submitting 365 daily averages to be computed into one year's average. (for a limited temperature station coverage in 1880-1960, before mass production of electronics made that point moot) - so we get 73'000 temperature values to calculate the yearly average temperature.
Let's imagine that out of 73000 temperature readings only 3 values were only 1 degree Celsius off. The person reading the temperature scale made an error and incorrectly reported 21 degrees when the true daily average was 20 degrees.
If we have 3 erroneous readings out of 73000, the error is 50% higher than the assumed increase in global temperature.
73000 readings throughout one year, distributed around the globe, done by lab assistants, students using whatever equipment they have. I would be highly suprised if more than 70000 of them are within a 1 degree range of errors.
So we have another
Fact: for all years up until around 1960, the margin of error is at least 50% higher than the presumed signal.
Only one single reading being off only one single degree could account for half the yearly's supposed temperature increase. With the signal being equal to an of 2 degree error in 73000 readings, all statistical and scientific results are to take with a very large grain of salt.
A temperature increase of 0.01K is probably less than the radiated body heat of a small bird resting somewhere near the sensor.
You think like a ReThuglican Jew
I think you owe Rockoon an apology for calling him a thug.
Especially as it is the environmentalists who are making demands, giving orders and suppressing dissent...
It is interesting that they measured an increase in CO2 levels and conclude that temperatures will rise by 6C in a century. The correlation between CO2 levels and temperature, however, might want to be investigated yet again. The period 2000 - 2008, when the increase in CO2 levels took place, experienced a steady drop in global temperatures. That in itself suggests a negative correlation. Don't get me wrong; I don't believe that temperatures will tend to fall as CO2 rises, but instead they should definitely rise. I'm just suggesting that world climate is an incredibly complex system, and we can't accurately estimate future temperatures without understanding how all of the variables contribute to the system.
We have a problem, but not an emergency.
Let's work to cut emissions and (more importantly IMHO) conserve our limited fossil fuel resources.
But let's not panic about global warming.
After all, the science is still fairly immature.
The hard part of unit conversions is not the multiplication. This temperature conversion is one of the only unit scales with different zero points that come to my mind--and it's one that people use all the time. Every unit conversion that's just a multiplication is abjectly trivial no matter how esoteric. This one is slightly more complicated and that seems to cause trouble.
If more people were more familiar with unit conversion in general, the world would be a slightly better place. It's an easy, ten-minute process to learn, and it makes you so much less afraid of math and physics.
This doesn't seem "cherry-picked."
Somebody shook the tree and some nuts fell out.
So what is the average temperature of the Earth? And what is the Standard Deviation? I'm too lazy to look it up, and you are being so kind and considerate to do the multiplication, I thought you can do my look up for me. Luvya dear
We get the most extreme 'end-of-world' slashdot posts from the UK.
Most who are unfamiliar with the biology of most "higher" organisms are woefully unprepared to image the consequences of such a profound temperature increase. If this pace goes on for only a couple of centuries, it would largely wipe out most vertebrate and plant species, which do not evolve fast enough to alter their basic ecological requirements. A 6 degree C change per 100 years, would change underlying ecological communities so fast, most species would die out, most likely because they would not be able to survive during vulnerable portions of their life cycles. This will be especially true for many vertebrates and plants that are unlikely to survive the challenges of being able to find sufficient water for lengthy periods as water scarcity grows more acute. With a 6 degree rise in global mean temperatures there would be almost no glaciers outside of the poles and a dramatic reduction of winter ice everywhere, hence dramatic reductions in melt water in virtually all rivers. Coupled with competition from burgeoning human populations and you can just about kiss most large species good bye.
If the present trend continues for a couple of hundred years, those of our descendants surviving are likely to look back nostalgically on the past and for the yearn for the elatively merciful ending of the world portrayed in the movie 2012.
The Global Warming Deniers are great at hurling insults, discovering conspiracies, and suggesting we should abandon science and return to the age of enlightenment of 7th century, but they have yet to come up with an explanation as to why all the world glaciers are disappearing.
Seawater does act as a CO2 sink and the rate of C02 uptake and consequent acidification has marine biologists and fisheries biologist alarmed. Seawater everywhere is becoming more acidic and pH's are dropping. This has immediate effects upon most marine invertebrate species that must produce sufficient exoskeleton to survive and upon larval fishes that must calcify their vertebrae quickly to "grow out of" especially vulnerable periods in their life cycles, when they can not out-swim predatory species, or move into habitats essential for subsequent survival during limited "windows" of opportunity, when currents may be favorable.
Like anyone is going to believe that, now.
Release the data so we can all have a look and verify those conclusions independantly. Without the raw data its just hear-say. Anyone can look at anything and come to their own conclusions.
As demonstrated with the CRU email leak from the weekend, there are many ways to look at data and there are ways to hide behind Freedom of Information laws while calling out doom on top of a soap box.
Give it a rest, it's over. Climate change was debunked the other day. Can't you report on something real?
I submitted article with the real truth, wonder if slashdot will post it?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html
"your pre-existing political beliefs tell you all you should need to know. "
And from this we can conclude that the Climate Deniers, like Nixon, have only one tool left in their quiver. If one can't come up with any rational scientific explanations to counter the findings of climate scientists that mean global temperatures are in fact rising as the result of burning of fossil fuels, turn to burglary to dig up "dirt" on your opponents, as if somehow the consequence of the entire debate rested upon how it is portrayed in the media. The entire debate if stalled and manipulated may well further enrich a few oil industry titans, but it won't do much to lower the temperature of what is going to be a much hotter world.
Personally, I would prefer that we stop burning fossil fuels and start burning oil company executives, but I suspect it will take a few more degrees of global warming before that solution becomes a widely accepted approach to dealing with a very serious crisis facing humanity.
Isn't the bright side of this lots more arable land in places like Canada and Russia? Seems like we'll need it if the population keeps going up.
This is not at all unexpected based on current climate models. Global mean temperatures are rising so fast that they are kicking polar ice melts into overdrive.
When vast quantities of ice melts it produces a lot of cooling. Once the Arctic ice has largely melted (already there is very little ice older than 1 year for much of the Arctic) expect to see the rise in global mean temperatures to return, except at a much accelerated pace. There will be an acceleration because the melting and warming will ultimately begin to unlock the large methane stores in a relative shallow Arctic Sea and because the ice pack, which reflects back much energy back into space will be gone and that energy will instead be absorbed by open water. Although there is considerably more ice in the Antarctic, the sea bed is deep and contains relatively little methane stores. In the Antarctic we will see a continuing calving of ice sheets and an then eventually a rapid rise in global sea levels. These won't become dramatic until about the 23rd Century, when we will see, cities like New York, Los Angeles, London, Tokyo, Osaka, Sydney, Mumbai,begin to be inundated with 10-20 m of seawater, in centimeter increments (note that the population of Venice, which has long had problems with rising water is now only a small fraction of what it used to be just 10-15 years ago).
That the Arctic melts are accelerating is seen in the increasingly irregular fluxations of the jet-stream, which is influenced by ocean current temperatures as warmer tropical waters converge with colder polar water in high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.
The big immediate problems with global warming won't be the temperature rise per se, as annual fluctuations are much larger, the most immediate problems for humanity and other animal and plant species will be the unprecedented rapid and locally unpredictable changes in available sources of freshwater.
You don't even want to hide how incredibly dumbfuckingblindedly biased you are?
Heres a tip. Stop paying attention to sites that moderate content by deleting dissenting opinions, run by people who delete data in order to hide problems with their work, and even plots to ruin the credibility of peer reviewed journals that publish articles with dissenting views.
When was the last time any of these guys actually performed the scientific method? Instead of doing science, they fuck around in another discipline (statistics) which they arent properly schooled in.. and who do they hide their methods from? People with math degrees.
"His name was James Damore."
"It says that one scientist was asked to beef up his conclusions to aid in making a bigger public splash. There's nothing wrong with that. A paper is like an essay. You make different points with different amounts of stress depending on what message you're trying to convey and what you can back up by reference or evidence."
There is a world of wrong with that. People go to prison for that.
Did you hear about the Iraq War? Did you hear about the calls for public trials for so-called "sexing up" of dossiers? You are batshit insane, a lunatic.
"I believe the climate change scientists know what they are doing. Group-think does exist, and entire groups of scientists have been shown to be wrong."
They have made sure that no scientist would claim otherwise, without the knowledge that the rest of the community would drink champagne the day they die and speak about how they would like to give them a few baseball hits in a dark alley. That sounds like a systemic inducement to not contradict to me, which is significantly greater than what "groupthink" implies.
The fact that nobody on the climate-change side sees anything significant in what has been exposed makes them out to have a cult mentality.
Who gives a flaming fuck?
there are some others who call themselves "scientists," who do similar things.
Real scientists, however, use the Scientific Method. Climatologists are generous with hypothesis, but not so much with testable ones, and zero experiments. They jump directly from hypothesis to conclusion, avoiding the science part.
Those who bear false witness and say the mean world temperature is not rising have one more fact that they seem unable to explain to account for:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasa
If is not getting warmer, why is ice melting everywhere at accelerated rates and bringing local temperatures in various places temporarily down with it?
The thug is the guy who is abusing their position to block open debate. In other words the guys at realclimate who can't take any form of debate what so ever. To the point where they bully and pressure those with dissenting pov's out of the circle. If you're so ignorant to think it doesn't happen, you need to expand your circle of friends.
Om, nomnomnom...
I have to dismiss out of hand because of the timing. This is political and not scientific. Any press release right before a summit on climate that makes such disastrous claims has to be assumed to be demonstrably false.
If global warming is now slowing down then those who like to bear false witness about global warming have even more serious explaining to do:
Rates of ice sheet melting in Greenland and the Antarctic are accelerating (as is the disappearance of terrestrial glaciers). Since these are based on measures of gravity rather than temperature, the global warming nay-sayers have to account for why the ice is melting more rapidly if the temperature is not going up?
Well whats the answer for this anomaly? Cooler temperatures cause ice to melt more rapidly? If so, how?
Is the Register a relevant source for anything? Not in my experience.
Interesting. Good to know we have so many climate experts here in Slashdot. Not that it means anything. WAKE UP people!
Heard any good sigs lately?
How come the world temprature has dropped half a degree since 2000?
It hasn't.
It is highly questionable whether this "pause" is even real. It does show up to some extent (no cooling, but reduced 10-year warming trend) in the Hadley Center data, but it does not show in the GISS data, see Figure 1. There, the past ten 10-year trends (i.e. 1990-1999, 1991-2000 and so on) have all been between 0.17 and 0.34 C per decade, close to or above the expected anthropogenic trend, with the most recent one (1999-2008) equal to 0.19 C per decade - just as predicted by IPCC as response to anthropogenic forcing.*
According to the GISS data (which takes the polar temperatures into consideration) the decadal trend over 1998-2009 is +0.19C! In light of the fact that the largest increases in temperatures have been observed at the poles, can you understand how a methodology which ignores polar temperatures might not give an accurate global picture of warming?
More importantly do you understand why your question, were it even true, is largely meaningless? If you don't yet understand that comparing the temperatures over a very few of the hottest decades on record (the 1990s and 2000s) has no significant bearing over a record stretching back a century and a half, I suggest you compare the last two decades to the 1890s and 1900s.
And how are world leaders likely to respond if the temperature drops during the 2010s?
Sadly the science tells us that is extrememly unlikely happen. But even if it did, world leaders should respond by accepting the advice of those who understand the statistical significance of any observed falls in trends as against the entire instrumental record. Perhaps you should work at gaining some such understanding yourself?
Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
Asshole alarmists citing other asshole alarmists and then calling anyone who doesn't agree with them the equivalent of Climate Nazi's.
Please do come and try to take my car, raise my taxes, etc.. The earth will cool somewhat because there won't be any more hot air coming from your pie hole.
Don't link to realclimate.org; its heavily partisan and apologetic for even bad science and outlandish claims.
Oh please, what complete FUD! The guys who run real climate are actual climate scientists working for credible institutions whose science and maths are about as rigorous as you will find on any blog. Yes they have disagreements with others working in the field and they're not afraid to pull punches. But "bad science"? "Outlandish"?!!
C'mon, what you get on realclimate.org is the mainstream science. Cut out the cheap propaganda dude.
Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
I think they will find something else to scare us with. They will have to in order to further increase the percentage of our earnings they can control and further increase the percentage of the population that is dependent on government for life.
.. Blub falls right in the middle of the abstractness continuum. -- Paul Graham
...am, please shut up. You're making us all dumber.
Thou shalt not begin a subject line or post with the word "Umm".
+5 informative? - When did the average slashdotter lose the ability to read a graph?
Those charts do not show what the GP is claiming. In fact 20th century tempratures do not even appear on the chart!!! For one thing 100/500,000,000 is way too small to discern on the graph but the real reason is that the nature of moving averages is such that the last 100yrs is statistically unknowable on such a long timescale. Further, according to the text of these well known graphs the intervals used for the short and long term moving averages are 3Myr and 15Myr, in other words not only does it not show the 20th century, mathematically it CANNOT say anything about the trend over the last 3 million years!
I don't know if the GP pulled his conclusion out of his own arse or that of a lobbyist but the style of misdirection is typical of the disinformation that flows like sewage across the internet.
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Although it will becomel warmer at higher latitudes, don't jump to the conclusion that gardens will just pop up everywhere. High latitudes will still have very little daylight during about half of the year not to mention incredibly poor soils. This alone will preclude growing many kinds of plants.
As for world "leaders", they have just been informed that a rise of 6 degrees Celsius is in all likelihood to be expected REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEY DO and they have yet to have ANY MEANINGFUL response to the problem, perhaps other than to wait for scientists to tell them that its soon to get a lot warmer.
So while it may be fun to be Pangloss reincarnate, you better plan for some seriously warm weather!
You've never read the IPCC reports, have you.
There's an entire chapter on attribution. And the models include things like solar changes and though the extent and depth of this solar minimum wasn't forecast ***by an earth climate model and ***NOT*** a solar physics model*** the models when given the fact of the depth of this solar minimum agrees with the observations.
But nevertheless, the IPCC reports you don't believe in say that the sun has a large effect, though small compared to human influence accrued over the century and a half. And not knowing this shows you don't believe the IPCC reports because you've been TOLD not to believe in them. You have obviously not read them.
"Almost all of the increase this decade occurred after 2000"
And how much of the increase this decade would have occurred BEFORE 2000?
Honestly, sometimes the global warming crew just makes me weep. Can they at least start thinking again?
?
deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
I don't see a problem with spending money on Earth sciences, matter of fact I think it's a benifit to understand the planet I find myself living on. I do however see a problem with people deliberately peddling dangerous disinformation for profit, I don't care if the disinformation relates to medicine, evolution or climate science. The trend toward "wishfull thinking" and "equal weight to unequal sources" over the last decade reminds me of Sagan's nightmare...
"I worry that, especially as the Millennium edges nearer, pseudoscience and superstition will seem year by year more tempting, the siren song of unreason more sonorous and attractive. Where have we heard it before? Whenever our ethnic or national prejudices are aroused, in times of scarcity, during challenges to national self-esteem or nerve, when we agonize about our diminished cosmic place and purpose, or when fanaticism is bubbling up around us - then, habits of thought familiar from ages past reach for the controls. The candle flame gutters. Its little pool of light trembles. Darkness gathers. The demons begin to stir" - Sagan, Demon haunted world (Science as a candle in the dark).
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
While you're all arguing about the INEVITABLE, i'm buying up farmland in Canada. If this all pans out, my dynasty will be a rich and powerful one, commanding great swaths of fertile Canadian farmland that will be ripe when the climate warms up. Canadian oranges, anyone?
Suppose the oceans sink 60% of the CO2 emmited by humans per year leaving a 40% airborne fraction. Suppose this goes on for 10 years. Now there is 4 years worth of emmitted CO2 in the atmosphere. If emmission stops then it will take 6 2/3 years for the CO2 levels to return to normal.
I wonder how much more fossil fuels we can burn even if we try. Sure we could keep extracting fossil fuels as prices rise to keep doing what we have been doing, but maybe the things that have been being done with fossil fuels just aren't worth the price such fuels will command - at least most of the current uses for fossil fuels. There may not be demand for $200/barrel oil. If not enough people will pay for $200/barrel oil ( or alternatives equivalent in price to that ) then there may not be the scale to justify offering it at all.
Fossil fuel use could severely slow largely for economic reasons. Soon the sinks will aborb the excess.
And why might people choose not to pay for resources at high prices, when those resources are absolutely necessary? Only if they are UNABLE to pay for them. It would seem that the rich will keep buying the resources and the poor and unvaluable will do without. It may be that prices for fossil fuels don't change as much. It may be that more and more people cease to be able to find the means to pay the same prices they once paid as the fossil fuel dependent economy unravels ( maybe slowly over many years ). At some point once available economies of scale go away and formerly affordable things become prohibitively expensive and the world sinks into a dark age.
A short while after this story
http://politics.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=09/11/20/1747257
We get this one. (and I down loaded the data and perused it, the e-mails really are pretty damning)
I'm sorry, but as I always told my children and staff, trust is a precious commodity. DON'T lie to me, because if you do it will be found out and it will take YEARS for you to fully regain my trust.
Guess what all knowing and self appointed paleoclimate experts who portray they know what is best for the unwashed masses, the e-mails which leaked indicate you have effectively lied to me, my children, and marketed your position to governments and politicians like some cheesy multinational.
Collectively you are now no better than any of the self serving, politician buying scum running many of the largest corporations. How many of you will skew your findings to in hope of snaring that next big grant?
Sorry, but your credibility is gone. If the GW crowd is right, your unethical behavior has doomed man-kind as you blew your credibility. If you're wrong, well being outed may have saved us the trouble of descending into the economic and social abyss you would have guided us too. /rant
You might also consider that I know what I am talking about. If you look at the average posting on realclimate it is polite, clearly worded, based on facts.
If on the contrary you look at the climate skeptics' sites, they mostly consist of slander, fake facts, and the like.
About the plot you assume: you are currently basing your opinion on material coming from anonymous hackers with a climate-skepticism agenda. Way to go, Rockoon.
Check http://greenfyre.wordpress.com/2009/11/21/cru-hack-time-to-hit-back-hard/ for a response, I don't even want to bother with slander.
We have a future to save.
On your statistics claim: statistics are a part of science, it's a fact, face it. If you think realclimate does not understand it, make your case.
You are standing in the way of a better future.
Mashiki, just comment on their site politely and they will respond. Or what did you post that got blocked?