At Current Rates, Only a Few More Years' Worth of IPv4 Addresses
An anonymous reader excerpts from an interesting article at Ars Technica, which begins "There are 3,706,650,624 usable IPv4 addresses. On January 1, 2000, approximately 1,615 million (44 percent) were in use and 2,092 million were still available. Today, ten years later, 2,985 million addresses (81 percent) are in use, and 722 million are still free. In that time, the number of addresses used per year increased from 79 million in 2000 to 203 million in 2009. So it's a near certainty that before Barack Obama vacates the White House, we'll be out of IPv4 address[es]. (Even if he doesn't get re-elected.)"
Can we start the discussion by not immediately going to the "NAT will save us" argument? Just accept that while NAT deployments might put it off, IPv6 deployment is inevitably necessary.
This is zillionth news article I read about running of ipv4 addresses, first in 2000, then 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2014... what next? /8 subnets, they clearly don't take use of all of it, so it's not a problem to cut piece of cake from those ip ranges.
some corporations are given
i'm pretty sure, if we are in trouble, we can find "few" millions of unused ip's...
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/map_of_the_internet.jpg
We'll never run out of IPv4 addresses. "Peak-IPv4" is a myth created by those who hate America and want Asia's IPv6 to take over. 4 octets forever!
I've already got MY ipv6 address.
4 octets should be enough for everyone.
WTF am I doing replying to an AC at 5 A.M on a Friday night?
It has not yet become a big enough of a problem for the large sections of unused address by universities such as MIT and Harvard to be recalled.
Ah but nobody will take away the IPv4 address I got myself, 127.0.0.1 !
Take Nobody's Word For It.
Anybody not paying for a business line will being going through so many layers of NAT in the near future that getting bittorrent to work will be quite difficult...
It's really irritating to still be hearing that long since debunked claim that Gore claimed to invent the internet. In the video where he supposedly claimed that he invented the internet he says nothing more than that he took initiative on the internet. Implying that it must have previously existed to take initiative on. Which for politicians of that day was somewhat remarkable considering the almost complete lack of competence in the area in general.
Commercial fusion power will be a reality in 20 years.
We should not forget that within IPv4 space, reallocations do happen. Some organizations are AFAIK still sitting on routeable /8s for no good reason whatsoever, and possibly, maybe, some of that space will be redistributed one way or the other. Then of course those parts of the world that have actually switched to IPv6 are not likely to switch back (but you'd have to pry their 4to6 and 6to4 gateways from their dead, cold fingers), and actuall large segments of the Western world lives quite comfortably (fsvo) behind one or more layers of NAT.
So are we actually that close to running out?
Could be. It could also be that reallocations happen in IPv4 space that make the matter a little less urgent for just long enough that IPv6 wins the hearts and minds of the resisters or their objections are in fact addressed.
-- That grumpy BSD guy - http://bsdly.blogspot.com/
I just helped out a friend who lives in a remote rural section outside of Chicago. I tried for years and years to get her lit up on decent broadband service.
Finally, we got a relay from a WiMAX provider --
When I went to connect her broadband with a Cisco router - I discovered that she was assigned a FRIGGIN /27 of public numbers!! (i.e. she now personally burns 32 usefull IPV4's)
I was gonna call their support ... but why bother?
You never know if she's gonna need 30+ public ip numbers right? Just because she lives alone - she may get many friends real soon!
---- "Logoff! That cookie shit makes me nervous!" - A. Soprano
I live in one of the most tech-focused parts of the country (downtown San Francisco) and as far as I can tell there's no way for a normal consumer to order native (i.e. not tunneled) IPv6 here.
When I moved to my current apartment in 2004 I specifically went with Speakeasy because they were talking about rolling out IPv6 to customers. Over 5 years later, those plans are still stalled as far as I can tell. None of the other providers seem to be even making a peep about it. If I'm wrong, someone please correct me - I'd love to switch to an IPv6-capable provider.
I've pretty much concluded that IPv6 just isn't going to happen -- instead providers will just force all of us normal people into shared IP addresses. From a technical perspective this isn't hard to do: just move the software that's currently running in your home NAT router onto the DSLAM and only provide a NATed view. For the ISPs there's no downside to this since not only can they avoid rolling out IPv6, it means they have complete control of your network connection.
I bet in 10 years we still won't have IPv6 in our homes, and the idea of having your own IP address (even a dynamically allocated one) will just be a memory. It's a shame.
... We'll run out. People won't be able to get new IP addresses. Entrepreneurs will see a market to sell IPv6 addresses. We'll have IPv6 addresses.
Some entrepreneurs will start earlier than others, and they'll have an edge.
... we won't run out, because more and more of the addresses in use will also become available, and as ipv6 uptake accelerates, ipv4 uptake will dramatically decelerate, and it will stop just shy of actually running out.
stuff |
After reading the headline, I didn't even have to RTFS.
For a limited time only, you can now purchase a .net address and get Internet sanctioned .biz and .tv addresses ABSOLUTELY FREE...!
"IPv6 addresses are too long and complicated to type"
...is like saying solar panels are too hard to build when you run out of slave labor in hamster wheels.
"We don't need IPv6 since there is NAT"
...is like saying we don't need new energy solutions because beeswax candles are a tried and trusted technology.
"The Internet will be overrun by zombies when NATs no longer protect us."
...is like saying avoiding antibacterial soap will cause untold misery and disease.
"Just re-allocate some of the wasted space in Class A nets."
...is like saying overcrowding of the planet can be mitigated by decreasing the size of houses.
True confidence comes not from realising you are as good as your peers, but that your peers are as bad as you are.
... can't get a DHCP address .... Film at 11.
Only a Few More Years' Worth of IPv4 Addresses
They (vested interest groups) have been saying that for a decade now.... guess what, we haven't run out yet.
The Mayans were right about 2012!
If the idiots in charge would just go about recovering the HUGE blocks of IP's issued to companies and entities that no longer exist this issue would not exist either, but then as someone else mentioned just implementing NAT in all the appropriate places would also avoid the issue, but from a corporate point of view, then there would be no market for NEW hardware that is IPV6 compliant and it is much harder to track activity from a NAT'd source than it would be if every electronic device in he world had its' own ip. I personally don't WANT my refrigerator feeding Safeway Inc. information on what's in my freezer box, or enabling them to target more ads based on what I buy even though I have gone to the trouble to get a members' club card under a false phone number with NO NAME associated with it...
This "problem" isn't a real problem it just interfers with the corporate right to make a profit of anything they feel like...
errr....umm...*whooosh* *whoosh* Is this thing on ?
lets just switch to ipv6 and just end it already, you hear me ISPs, get you butts in motion!
Someday we'll hit the human carrying capacity. And the band will just play on.
Yeah... I used to think that this will be a real problem. I have, however, seen so many articles about it (especially on Slashdot) over the years that it is getting harder and harder to believe "THAT date will be the final one...". You know, you've all heard stories about the boy who cried "Wolf!".
Every time I see another story about this, I get more certain that the problems - if there'll be any - will be postponed even more, if there'll even be any. Yeah, we'll have to pay a bit more for static IPs, whooppedoo.
(Yes, I study network engineering. I know what the problems would supposedly be.)
So there is no need to read the repost.
I will guess by your user id that you where in junior high then, or are old and senile and forgot the password to your old account. Either way the story goes that everyone needs many address they do not exist so we will all change over to IPV6 by Thursday. Hint the research is done by people who have a vested interest in selling gear or by grad students who have never worked anywhere.
When you have read the next three such articles and the country is suffering through the nightmare of a Palin presidency you will become cynical as well...
Two words: offshore drilling.
Is that thing still around?
I also know first hand IBM uses a lot of 9.0.0.0/8 today and that the world would have to do something drastic to make them change their usage as it isn't cost-effective from their standpoint unless they can save/get a large chunk of change.
Now, you'd think that means these devices are publically accessible, but noooo. If 99% of their '9.x.x.x' equipment that does have internet access attempts a connection, it gets NATed outbound to a different address entirely! So they sit on a mountain of globally addressable IP addresses, and then only use them internally for nearly all of them.
Just give me a sane IPv6 environment (give me richer DHCPv6 capability than I have today and a few other things that are just flat-out missing in the IP6 generation) and a /48 (or /56) for my house and I'll be on my way.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
I'm ready for IPv6.
This dude claims that we will run out of IPv4 addresses in March 2011, that is about 6 months before anybody else thinks we will.
http://ipv4depletion.com/old.html
> So it's a near certainty that before Barack Obama vacates the White House, we'll be out of IPv4 address
When Bush left, there was still plenty of IPv4! Shame to you, Obama.
lucm, indeed.
IANA has in place an agreement that as soon as one of the RIRs is assigned one of the five final /8s
You DO NOT talk about the final five. That is against your programming.
So if we change the Constitution to extend the President's term of office to eternity, we'll be OK? No election, no problem.
There are so many ways IPv6 remains broken and too many of the people with influence can tend to say 'working as designed'.
I know that's controversial, so I'll enumerate my pain points:
-DHCPv6 DUID is a pain to 'pre-provision'. When any operating system or firmware instance dhcpv6 for the first time, it sends out something that you'll never know what it would be ahead of time. In 99% of cases, the DUID is a generated value at 'OS Install time' that is used only for that specific OS, and a reinstall or livecd boot will change it out completely. stateless boot, multi-boot systems and multi-stage booting (i.e. pxe -> os) cannot hold together a coherent identity because DHCPv6 is explicitly designed not to do that. Binding by MAC is considered 'evil', but it has been the strategy used for ages. I wouldn't mind so much if DUID was commonly implemented as a value retrieved from motherboard firmware tables, but no one is stepping up to drive that behavior in a spec visible to all parties.
No PXE/bootp boot. I believe they are trying to reinvent, from scratch the boot design from IPv4, and are nearing completion. I fear the extent to which the baby has been tossed out with the bathwater (i.e. 'root-path' was dropped and no one has pulled it into dhcpv6).
Some standards are missing the capability to operate in IPv6. I.e. IPMI hase some IPv4 specific portions of the standard without IPv6 capable equivalents.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
Block most ips only give you 1 with 5 costs a lot more will comcast ban NAT with ipv6 and make you pay $5+ per pc.
They pull that carp on the tv side with there outlet fees.
I know of one organization, for example, that was originally awarded 11 Class C's. These are permanently assigned. One Class C was used to knit together nine routers (That's all.) Another was assigned to a branch office that had five PCs, one hub, and one router. Later they added an IP-addressable copy machine and printer, so that's nine IPs hard coded out of one Class C. When their main office got a little crowded they did manage to subnet this Class C into two and swipe half of it away, but overall I think they had 2700+ IPs and were using about 300 of them. There are so many other ways they could have handled it, but in the early years they gave them away. Who knew?
How about a moderation of -1 pedantic.
We managed to slow it down via massive use of NAT and the RIRs tightening the requirements to get blocks of address space.
upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
Most, if not all of the major backbones are all IPv6 ready - it's the last mile (once again) that are holding back progress. Those cheap cable / DSL modems your ISP gives you are likely not IPv6 compatible, nor are their last mile systems. They will likely resort to NATting multiple customers before spending money to upgrade to IPv6.
Call your ISP and ask them when you will be able to get a native public routable IPv6 address. Ask Linksys when their routers will be able to route IPv6. E-mail your favorite game developers and ask why their game isn't IPv6 ready (which is inexcusable these days considering there is no extra code needed for IPv6 compatibility).
The only reason IPv6 isn't already in widespread use is because there is no consumer demand yet. Think of the amount of headaches and connectivity problems NAT causes and it would all be gone with IPv6. No more messing around with port forwarding, no more rebooting shitty routers when their NAT table overflows, no more issues with symmetric NATs breaking NAT traversal.
Yeah, you're right about the Internet thing. But Gore did invent global warming! I just wonder how long before we have to start getting a giant ice cube from a distant planetoid every once in a while.
You got a market-droid answer, once that happens in a font line computer company, you have 5 years to sell your stock and fix your 401K, the retire or start a new life. Why do you think C* negotiate a golden parachute, so they can participate in the stock pump & dump before the implosion.
DEC, Compaq, Sun are just the biggest and once, the best, to go down this road.
Agreed, look at it another way: 2**32 is four billion address, which is one address per two world citizens. OK, I could share that IP with my wife, but given the number of devices in between us, that won't really work. Now I know, that places like Africa currently don't follow the pattern of "personal" computers, but how long will that last.
More realistically, given that my phone, web-server, car, camera, email, GPS unit, home security system, etc. all should have their own IP address, we need at least 20x what a 32 bit address space can provide. And then you've to add the 'wasted space' so that we can allocate blocks of addresses in a logical fashion.
So yes, IPv6 is the only way to go, if you like it or not. Couple of /8 blocks or NAT won't help us.
Browsers shouldn't have a back button!! It's all about going forward...
I guess the question is, how many applications break on the switch to ipv6? Seems to me that if it were so easy to port to ipv6, we would have done it already.
This is my sig.
While I'm sure eventually IP address scarcity will become a real problem, it just doesn't seem to be at this point, and doesn't really seem to be near it. Part of the reason is that there is a fair bit of unassigned IP space still, and a fair bit that is very underused. Organizations that got Class As way back in the day but have no need for all that. Then of course there's NAT, which has made the space go much further. There are lots of situations where NAT can be used, and even is desirable.
There's no question that a move to IPv6 will eventually be necessary, and it is a good idea over all. However I'm more than a little tired of hearing these "sky is falling" stories on IP space. Maybe this really is the time this time, but I'm doubtful because, as you said, people keep crying wolf about it. I've been hearing about the death of IP for at least a decade now.
I guess the question is, can a modern desktop operating system, out of the box, wire itself to an ipv6 network the same way one does with ipv4? Like, if Verizon decreed that FIOS shall use IPV6 addresses for everything, does that break the following operating systems:
a) Linux
b) Mac
c) Windows
This is my sig.
Only a Few More Years' Worth of IPv4 Addresses
They (vested interest groups) have been saying that for a decade now.... guess what, we haven't run out yet.
What "vested interest groups"?
We're not talking about Big Oil or Big Agra or Big Whomever. It's not a big fucking deal to be ready for IPv6 in advance. Most companies have a 2-3 year tech refresh schedule, just add IPv6 to it and be done with it. It's not like you have to roll out your entire infrastructure with it, just add a check box on your RFP for IPv6 for routers and firewalls, and when you need the routing configure auto-config.
What "vested interest groups"?
Hardware vendors, software (non-desktop) vendors, registrars, etc.
"Even if he doesn't get re-elected"
What the fuck does Obama have to do with IP addresses?
how many of the googol domain names are still left?
How would you calculate the maximum number of domain names that could exist?
Could anyone enlighten me why I dont notice anything about a shift from IPv4 to IPv6? What will the switch actually look like? 2 years isnt that far away...
Thus, solving the problem once and for all.
I've been hearing for years about how by this time in X years we'll have no IPv4 addresses left. I wish people would knock off the doomsday predictions or just freaking adopt already. While I don't see a lack of being able to connect because of lack of an IPv4 address yet but I do see some device makers trying to force users to use IPv6 by default and making it a pain in the ass to switch back to IPv4 easily. Which frankly pisses me off because most ISP's don't support it yet. (Hey Canonical, I'm looking at YOUUUUUUUUU Ubuntu Devs!)
That being said I would like to see some routers and devices being made that can sign an IPv6 address out on the LAN side and accept either IPv4 or IPv6 addresses on the WAN side that way users can start transitioning over and will be ready when the ISP's finally start upgrading their infrastructure.
We all know that IPv4 addresses will be bought and sold like any other commodity once new ones run out.
I currently use two IP4 static addresses - one at the webhosting company I use in the US, essential for the SSL certificate (shared between several domains, yech!) and one at my home address in the UK, not essential but losing it and using dyndns wouldn't really free up another address. Last year I asked both suppliers what plans they had for IPv6 adoption, and both replied "none". It seems to me they're leaving it a bit late, especially at the hosting end. If I think of all the places where I currently have an opportunity to input an IPv4 port number (even though it's usually just left at the default) it comes to quite a large number.
Phil McKerracher
http://tech.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=09/04/30/2051235
http://tech.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/02/22/1348210
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/10/17/1152211
There's no security value to NAT
Of course there is - it allows all manner of insecure and misconfigured gear to avoid being probed from the other side of the planet?
What you say can be true, but only where everybody's gear is perfectly configured and they're all running updated OpenBSD. I'm not likely to give a 10-year-old JetDirect card a public IP any time soon...
My God, it's Full of Source!
OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
It's just an academic question at this point, but why are all these new addresses neeeded?
Yes, I know NAT isn't a real solution for a shortage of addresses. But really, the vast majority of Internet-connected devices don't need a public address.
Home Internet connections, cell phones, etc. have no need for public addresses. Which begs the question, are these companies just being selfish in requesting so many more? I don't see any real legitimate need. And if this is the case, why are they still actually being given more?
This should be the first banned topic here. Every 6 months you hear that we have "3 years left." Now, this has been since what, 2001 we've been hearing this rubbish. It hasn't happened yet, when it does, or when we're actually close to it, THEN say something, it's getting old. Even the comments are the same repeated nonsense. Just make it a banned topic and be done with it.
They offer IPv6. It's tunneled as far as I can tell, but it's tunneled within their own network so it works well.
sonic.net is the best, you just can't get fast service from them in most places. Lucky for you one of the places you can get it is downtown San Francisco.
http://sonic.net/features/ipv6/
It'd be better if they supported native IPv6, but then again my home router doesn't support native IPv6 either (but it does support tunneling).
http://lkml.org/lkml/2005/8/20/95
It used to be one IP per HTTP Vhost until named-based virtual hosting came along. You can't do that with SSL, though. When I worked at a major hosting provider, it was not uncommon for a single server to have 25-30 IPs on it to run a bunch of SSL vhosts.
...is like saying overcrowding of the planet can be mitigated by decreasing the size of houses.
There is no overcrowding of the planet. This is yet another specious argument created in hope that no one challenges it with facts. Have you seen the interiors of China, Africa, USA, Russia? They are EMPTY.
The only places that are overcrowded are coastal port areas, where people who make that argument tend to live.
It's the same with v4. Use it better, use it as port areas, and the interiors can be populated with non-routable addresses. I have heard the v6 song for the past 20 years. It's been Standards Track protocol for the past ten. It will be another ten before the first signs of wide spread public deployment are seen. The only things that might possibly accelerate it is mobile devices with public IPs, and even then it is not really a make-it-or-break-it issue, as it can be handled with dynamic private addresses from provider's pools.
End anonymous moderation and posting on
1h2.tyj.56j.0as
I think that would solve the problem permanently.
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
As everyone known "in use" is a dubious term. The only subnets that I've ever seen fully occupied were /30's. Even my university has 2 class B's, where we could live with half of one - if we tried. Naturally this space is jealously guarded.
Meanwhile, in India, entire campuses are being NAT'd to /28's
Inefficient allocation are of course totally necessary when dealing with the prospects of future growth and variably-used DHCP pools, but I would be willing to wager at least 50% of the IPv4 space could be recovered if there was a serious effort at rationalisation - and that's ignoring the ridiculous situation of class A's.
And you thought only the USPS could deliver to the wrong address!
Which hardware vendors are you thinking of? One of the ongoing problems with native IPv6 deployment is that effectively no consumer-level CPE supports it -- Cisco don't exactly make stuff for Joe Sixpack, after all. As an example, Internode have been the first ISP here in Australia to offer native IPv6 (on a trial basis for now), but have basically had to tell interested people not using newer Cisco routers to use bridge mode, which is decidedly sub-optimal.
Fundamentally, we are going to run out of IPv4 addresses, and as other posts in this thread have said, it's going to be pretty soon in some regions, such as the Asia-Pacific. We need to be planning for this now, not when it actually happens, and if it takes "vested interest groups" to make it happen, so be it.
...is to go back to UUCP bang addresses. Pathalias can handle routing.
--
ihnp4!stolaf!bungia!foundln!john
Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
I think he was refering to devices that only accept xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx as well has how it is sort of harder to remember/use/write down on a piece of paper an IPv6 compared to IPv4.
An IPv6 looks like:
3ffe:1900:4545:3:200:f8ff:fe21:67cf
What wants to write that down or try to "use" it.
xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx could posibly still be utilized of you didn't use base16.
Allowing 0123456789abcdefghijklmnop..... then you could still use the format xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx
I don't want to do the math, but what base would you need to be in to fit 2^128 into the space xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx ??
;-) I'm not opposed to IPv6, I just think it's important to point out that people have been crying the "we are going to run out" message for over a decade now. That's longer than people have been crying about SARS, H1N1, and Mad Cow disease combined. Yes there is a need for IPv6, but the over-hype has killed a lot of the interest. If CNN/FOX were to report on the exhaustion of IPv4 today, it would get 5 seconds in the 3am timeslot. People are tired of the IPv6 talk... get on with the technology already.
IPv6 is a done deal. To borrow a quote from B5..."the avalanche has already started, it's to late for the pebbles to vote". It's even required on most networking certs now. With more adding it as time goes on. I only hope that OS companies will shift more resources into research for preventing host exploitations. As others have stated. You can use NAT to append your private IPv4 IP's to your IPv6 IP from your ISP, but that will cost a delay in latency.
A decade ago, common houseplants weren't sending twitter updates to the Internet at large.
In a good number of cases you don't even need DHCPv6. Router advertisements will do the reset. Basically the router announces the prefix it is using to the LAN and then the computers there will pair it with their own MAC address to create a unique IPv6 address. If you wish to control which computers on the subnet have access to the outside world, then just configure your firewall as necessary.
My Windows 2000 PC supported this 5 years ago and was able to connect to an IPv6 network this way.
I am not saying that router advertisements will solve all the problems, its will simply be good enough for most people.
Note there is a more recent specification for also announcing the DNS server via router advertisements too, though in most case it would probably a safe hack to assume "subnet prefix" + "::1" is the router which is also acting as DNS proxy.
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
But what if he resigns?
Since the 80's, my science textbook said scientists said oil would run out in 20 years, coal in 40 years... guess what, we haven't run out yet.
Not sure whether I'll prove your point or disprove it.
Have a nice day.
Now that he has read this, he just might, to piss of techies!
It'll happen but not a second sooner then it absolutely has to. Think about it, if there's no driving force to roll out a new technology, as a company why would you? What's the return on a philosophic investment for a service provider? Customers don't want it, eventually they'll simply need it. Not to mention it's really a chicken/egg thing where early adopters (like the parent) will be tunneling anyway.
Quack, quack.
While it may not happen quite as quickly as people trying to get you to read their article or sell you new hardware want you to think, I don't see how we'll be able to put this off forever. Eventually, everything will get swallowed up by the internet. Your phone, your tv, your radio, you dog, and you house will ALL have their own IP addresses eventually.
Think of the adorable puppies!! How will the people of the future have adorable puppies if we don't migrate to IPv6?!!!?
Helping solve the problem is much harder.
Are you part of the problem, or part of the solution? If all you're willing to do is criticise, then I think you're part of the problem.
The Internet's nature is peer to peer - 20050301_cs_profs.pdf
Name me one reason why household appliances, or even a phone, or your dog .. requires a direct IP address?
Why can't we put our second priority devices on a NAT network and save a bit of ip-space?
Now, It's dwelling with the faucet open without any good result at all...
--- I am known for the ones who want to find me on the net. Is that a privacy risk or a privilege? One might wonder..
OK, I could share that IP with my wife, but given the number of devices in between us, that won't really work.
Divided by technology?
Or what kind of devices are you referring to exactly ? *nudge nudge wink wink*
--- I am known for the ones who want to find me on the net. Is that a privacy risk or a privilege? One might wonder..
Why recreate the wheel if they already got ipv6 for that?
By using that approach of alphanumeric [a-z] you'll also get a lot more errors in spelling, O & 0, I & 1, ..
HEX solves that entirely by only allowing [0-F].
--- I am known for the ones who want to find me on the net. Is that a privacy risk or a privilege? One might wonder..
The population of the earth is 6.8 billion. There are just under 4 billion IPv4 addresses available. That means that, theoretically speaking, the Internet is doomed to failure because there aren't enough IPv4 addresses to go around.
BUT
About 80 % of the world's population live in poverty. They can't afford a bite to eat, let alone a PC with internet access. That leaves us with 850 million people.
Of those 850 million, around 25% are children with no internet access of their own. With 20% of the population being elderly (60+), let's assume that half are in care. So, minus 35%, that leaves us with roughly 550 million people. I'm not going to include technophobes or those incapable of using a PC for physical or mental reasons, nor am I going to go into the complexities of dynamic IP allocation, which applies for the vast majority of the lay population. A library or school, for example, despite having perhaps 100 computers, will only have one global fixed IP address. The local 192.168.*.* addresses obviously don't count as being usable. Let's also assume that the 180 million websites out there each have their own IP (I know this is not the case - many webspace providers simply allocate one fixed IP to several sites on their server)
That means theoretically that there would be enough IPs for everyone to have at least six of their own. So the question is: WHO THE FUCK HAS BEEN HOGGING ALL MY IP ADDRESSES?
last year my work bought 8,000 IP addresses at a dollar each
we ended up not doing anything with them so it's back in the pool
Is it like one of those "the web has to change" predictions which will be groundbreaking in 2009 ?
http://1997.webhistory.org/www.lists/www-talk.1994q2/0007.html if you want a reference ;)
--- I am known for the ones who want to find me on the net. Is that a privacy risk or a privilege? One might wonder..
A comment from an IPv6 workshop I attended last year, from (I think) Tata.com : content providers need to get on IPv6 else they will be left behind. As customers start to move to v6 (perhaps starting in Asia, but it doesn't really matter), any org that puts hurdles in the way of customers connecting at full speed is going to lose out.
No worries; when IPv4 runs out and IPv6 isn't ready its time for FidoNet'ing!
zone:network/node, and the numbers don't even stop at 255! And you can even perform "NAT" by assigning points! zone:network/node:point. So for example; 1:2012/13, and the list is endless. And since we'll be doing line switching networking again we don't even need firewalls anymore!
$ host -t AAAA google.com
google.com has no AAAA record
I'm sure many of you have seen the IPv4 Address Report, which attempts to predict when the IANA and RIRs will exhaust the unallocated pool of IPv4 addresses.
I've been tracking the results of those daily predictions for a while now and since this time last year, they've moved further away by about 6 months. There are graphs online at http://atchoo.org/ipv4/
We're still roughly at the same place we were back when this was discussed in April (ARIN Letter Says Two More Years of IPv4).
Cheers,
Roger
Do you have any better hostages?
Only a Few More Years' Worth of IPv4 Addresses
They (vested interest groups) have been saying that for a decade now.... guess what, we haven't run out yet.
No, but still-untapped address pools are becoming harder and harder to access, needing ever longer pipes to reach them. Eventually, the return on investment is just going to be too small to be worth it.</bad analogy>
"Good news, everyone!"
Exactly. I call Y2K on this.
I Hate NAT
I not only buy the service of internet client , I buy the service of internet server too.
How much of the current /32 is in use or addressable right now?
Should cell phones be full citizens on the net, or should they be NAT'd
by definition? Should a cell phone be running a server? Should a cell phone
have a fixed IP address?
I am tired of hearing about IPv6. Personally, I think IPv6 is horrible,
thoughtless design. And I am tired of hearing about it. Both sides have
to be able to use IPv6 for IPv6 to work. For IPv6 to work without a tunnel,
every device between the two systems has to know IPv6. Every modem, every
router, every firewall, every OS.
IPv6 will be implemented....half way. They will force everyone to run
IPv6. But not ALL of the intermediary hardware will be replaced for decades.
We will spend DECADES in tunneling hell because of the poor design decisions
of a few people just had to re-invent the wheel...and force every wheel to
be replaced.
ONCE AND FOR ALL!!!
(1.21 gigawatts) / (88 miles per hour) = 30 757 874 newtons
Having read this thread this morning, I was walking down the aisle in the store and came across a shiny new "Cisco/LinkSys" wireless router.
I read every bit of text on the box, and while there was plenty of info about what OSs it is "compatible" with, there was not a single mention of whether or not it is IPv6 compatible. No hype == no adoption.
This is a big barrier, the little consumer-level device at the end of the wire.
Most people with DSL have the "modem/router" that their service provider provided with the connection. If that huge base of installed equipment isn't upgraded to IPv6 (and who is going to pay for it?), then IPv6 is a FAIL.
A house divided against itself cannot stand.
Some users insist that there's no way for consumers to get affordable native IPv6 at home. Consider this: http://www.sixxs.net/faq/connectivity/?faq=native
You can get native IPv6 DSL almost anywhere in Germany. I'm going to switch soon as well. Also more and more data centers provide native IPv6 at no additional cost as well because they're actually running out of IPv4 addresses already.
There are billions of IPv4 gadgets out there, and some of them cost a lot.
All of them run some specific firmware to function. A huge proportion of modern IP-gizmos run some embed variation of the Linux kernel (very often the case in modems, routers, multimedia -harddisk enclosure / -players, and cheap SAN/NAS for Soho). This kernel DOES support IPv6. So for a lot of IP-enabled gizmos, the IPv6 support is only a firmware-flash away. Whether the constructor *will* actually release an upgrade is another question.
The open-source nature of most tools involved in such embed device also enables the end-users to attempt such upgrade (think OpenWRT and other user-made firmwares), although the proprietary user interfaces might not be able to configure it. (i.e.: you can reflash your home router to support IPv6, but when logging on http://192.168.1.1/ the original interface handles IPv4 configuration. The IPv6 has to be done on the console using SSH or Dropbear.
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
My home and work internet access providers, a major cable TV provider, and a major incumbent telco provider, both do not have native IPv6 available. This is in the USA, where we need some leadership to take action and mandate universal IPv6 access everywhere, with a timetable for government sites to be increasingly available ONLY via IPv6. Unfortunately, this country has lacked leadership for many presidential terms, and continues to have this issue.
now we need to go OSS in diesel cars
IPv6 will not take off until there is stuff out there that people want to access that hasn't been able to get an IPv4 address.
Believe me, once that moment hits, IPv6 will become a differentiator and ISPs will race for it. Until then, they'll largely ignore it, because they can't justify the cost of setting it all up if no-one cares about it.
(I am an ISP Network Engineer)
Why not switch to IPv4.2?
i.e.: 9999.9999.9999.9999 instead of 9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999 or 255.255.255.255.
We'd have 9996000599960001 addresses, or 2327375 times as many as we do now, and the current addresses would still be valid and usable.
'For we walk by faith, not by sight.' II Corinthians 5:7
Ah, nothing like a hot cup of sarcasm with a touch of irony to keep warm...
Nothing like repeating the same old "stupid liberal" cliches for the millionth time.
Er, much like the Nobel Prize selection process, my post was meant to be a joke.
Sometimes you just gotta laugh it off, especially when trying to cope with what Congress is doing to this Country.
I know it was a joke. A very tired, ill-informed joke.
In some scenarios, a pre-provisioning capable scheme is required for certain circumstances and that is ostensibly where DHCP should be able to fill the gap, but it is restricted here.
stateless autoconfig w/ mDNS for all service discovery was the original vision of all IPv6 (which still makes sense in many contexts).
dhcp was brought to ipv6 with the recognition that some circumstances for more central management exist.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
Only after the last domain registration has been given, Only after the last DNS has been poisoned, Only after the IPv4 router has been sold, Only then will you find that no more IPv4 addresses cannot be consumed.
How can you read my mind that fast ? It has latency! :)
--- I am known for the ones who want to find me on the net. Is that a privacy risk or a privilege? One might wonder..
The IETF will happily accept individual Internet-Draft submissions for review. They'll publish them as RFCs if they have merit.
And this is the problem. These articles on Slashdot bring out all the people with "wonderful" ideas about how IPv6 is wrong, and how they'd have fixed it or done "better" instead. But as they say, "the proof is in the pudding", and these people never seem to be bothered even going into the kitchen, let alone trying to actually cook anything.
IPv6 is specified, has been implemented in most OSes and works. It may not be perfect, and may not be as widely deployed as it should be by now, but it's better than IPv4, and solves one of the fundamental problems IPv4 has (i.e. lack of address space), as well as incorporating a number of better ideas that were shown to be useful from the experience of IPX, Appletalk and IPv4.
IOW, I'm basically saying, you should have "put up or shut up", and as you and other "punters" here on Slashdot haven't put up ... well...
The Internet's nature is peer to peer - 20050301_cs_profs.pdf
IPv4 has suposedly been running out soon for the last fracking decade or so - and WTF does President Obama have to do with this
Don't forget the blocks of bogon addresses - those entire address blocks that have NEVER been assigned and are essentially blackholed by most internet-facing and backbone routers. (Look it up...)
correction, the USA does not lack leadership, it is a surfeit of leadership that is causing the problem you mention. we just need a good ol' fascist govt. to get the trains to run on time.
look sig is kool
1. Linux on the desktop
2. Exhaustion of ipv4 address space
3. Duke Nukem Forever
Warning: date order may differ in your universe
--
Let's make another big bang so we can test it.
Why is the word "asymptotic" absent from these recurring screamfests?