Kojima Predicts the End of the Console

nathanielinbrazil writes "Konami founder and developer Hideo Kojima predicts gaming console is a dying breed. Anticipates gaming on demand via Internet. 'It's a bold prediction,' Sony Computer Entertainment Japan President Hiroshi Kawano told reporters nervously. 'We hope he continues to develop for platforms, but we deeply respect his sense of taking on a challenge.' Kojima launches his follow-up game Heavy Metal Solid Gear: Peace Walker in late April designed for the PSP."

Comments

Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

It's the other way around. Most of my friends have ditched computers for consoles in the last few years with virtually none returning.

Aside from steam, I've ditched computer gaming too.

Re:Doubtful

[tepples]

Most of my friends have ditched computers for consoles in the last few years with virtually none returning.

Kojima is talking about ditching consoles for handhelds.

Re:Doubtful

[LatencyKills]

I like computer gaming for the depth - Total War, Master of Orion, etc. Console gaming fulfills the high adrenaline stuff - God of War, Uncharted. Of course, computers get some of that too, but not all of it. But all of this is really off topic. What I believe he's trying to say (having not read a single line of TFA) is that there is strength in a subscription-based gaming service. It's an interesting concept. If you pay $2 an hour to play Bioshock 2, and I finish it in 6 hours, that's only 12 dollars. But I have a friend who is on like his fourth play through - he'd be up near $50. It seems to me then that a subscription service penalizes heavy gamers but would be great for mid-casual gamers like me. It would also save me the heartache of paying $60 for C&C4, when at whatever hourly rate they wanted to charge I could find out that it's awful in an hour or less. Ultimately I think there's room for both services, if for no other reason than the ability to play games in places where there is no significant connectivity.

Re:Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

Count me in that group as well. I used to love PC gaming, but the enjoyment just isn't there anymore. Mainly it is the hardware / driver / tweaking issues and ridiculous DRM that killed it for me. Substandard ports from consoles were also a contributing factor. The controller doesn't compare to the tried and true keyboard + mouse combo, but aside from that it is just an overall better (and easier) experience on the console. I don't have to worry about hardware compatibility, limited installs, or rootkits; I plug it in and it just fucking works. At the current rate of bullshit, I don't think PC gaming is going to survive. If they can get their act together and undo the past 5 or 10 years of fucking PC gaming over then it might have a chance.

Re:Doubtful

[WrongSizeGlass]

What I believe he's trying to say (having not read a single line of TFA) is that there is strength in a subscription-based gaming service. It's an interesting concept. If you pay $2 an hour to play Bioshock 2, and I finish it in 6 hours, that's only 12 dollars. But I have a friend who is on like his fourth play through - he'd be up near $50. It seems to me then that a subscription service penalizes heavy gamers but would be great for mid-casual gamers like me.

I apologize for the generalization, but aren't most heavy gamers also better gamers simply due to the nature of their many hours of experience? Perhaps they'd burn through Bioshock 2 in only three or four hours the first time through, and even less the next time through. With 'volume discounts' they may actually get a better deal than a mid-casual gamer in the long run.

Re:Doubtful

[megamerican]

I think in terms of the end of next decade he is right. The console will be replaced with iphone/ipad type devices which can be tethered to your TV/computer/etc... and be used as a gaming device.

This is also the way the desktop computer will be going as well.

Re:Doubtful

[DeadDecoy]

I'd hate to have that for any bioware or strategy game due to the sheer amount of gameplay involved. I imagine quite a few people here would be poor if they had to pay an hourly fee to play Civilization; Small games can last up to 6 hours :P. If we moved to a subscription based architecture, developers would probably change their design strategy to generate short bursts of content, which will ultimately lead to smaller, more shallow games. No offense to Telltale games, but the episodic content of Monkey Island and Sam & Max feels like a shadow of their predecessors' former glory. I wouldn't mind seeing what the industry does with subscription based content, but I wouldn't want to see it move as a whole to this form of distribution, at least for some developers.

Re:Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

As long as I can get HD high resolution graphics from that tethered device that don't look like someone took a shit on my 52 inch tv when the mobile device is tethered I might be sold. But right now there's always an (understandable) degradation of quality when moving from a tiny screen to a large one. Also games designed for tiny screen don't play like games designed for large screens. Large screens provide more real estate to do more cool stuff.

Re:Doubtful

[poetmatt]

it helps to read. he's basically saying consoles aren't portable enough. So that means handhelds.

I wonder if the portable market is better than console. More competition in that area would certainly be nice though.

Re:Doubtful

[Hatta]

I used to love PC gaming, but the enjoyment just isn't there anymore. Mainly it is the hardware / driver / tweaking issues and ridiculous DRM that killed it for me.

Clearly you don't remember fiddling with config.sys for those last few K needed for the game you just bought. And then flipping through the manual looking for word 6 of paragraph 2 on page 12 so you could actually play it. If PC gaming can survive that, it'll survive this no problem.

Re:Doubtful

[binarylarry]

As a long time PC gamer, I'd say games are easier to play now than they ever were on the PC. Games tend to support the vast amount of hardware out there, even low end stuff. I haven't had a driver issue in a long time, you may want to upgrade to computer made after 2000. DRM can be an issue but it's only invasive on a small number of titles that I don't buy (they're usually console ports anyway).

And to me, the experience is dramatically better than a console (although I only play PS3 and Wii). You get more varieties of games, not just action and party games. Vastly better multiplayer, better graphics, more challenging types of games (from indies to AAA), etc.

PC gaming is awesome.

Re:Doubtful

[jedidiah]

He probably does.

That sort of stuff is positively benign and quaint compared to the nonsense they pull today.

Re:Doubtful

[metamatic]

It seems to me then that a subscription service penalizes heavy gamers but would be great for mid-casual gamers like me.

It also penalizes people whose gameplay style is explorational, like me. When I get a new GTA game, usually the first thing I do is spend a couple of weeks just wandering around the city looking at stuff and learning my way around.

Re:Doubtful

[tomhudson]

Console makers are predicting the end of Konami.

After a hiatus, I just bought another console game earlier this week (my 34th for the Wii - Pinball Hall of Fame - The Gottlieb Collection), so consoles are alive and well.

Konami, on the other hand ... only one game from them, $89 and it was absolute trash.

Re:Doubtful

[jshackney]

Next time, try reading the article. He's talking about platform independence, not subscriptions.

"In the near future, we'll have games that don't depend on any platform. Gamers should be able to take the experience with them in their living rooms, on the go, when they travel wherever they are and whenever they want to play. It should be the same software and the same experience."

This is the only part of the article that is relevant to the article's title. The rest is about Kojima's new game. Imagine that, a headline that sucks you in only to find out there's little to no content.

I kinda agree with Kojima. It would be nice if games were platform independent. I stopped computer gaming long, long ago when escalating hardware requirements left me in the dust. It's cheaper just to buy a console every few years than it is to upgrade my PC with every new software release. I used to be heavy into flight simulation--the cost of entry is high. Too high.

Re:Doubtful

[biryokumaru]

Spending less time playing a game isn't often better, particularly with games with a great deal of intriguing storyline like Bioshock. Anyone who thinks the merit of a game is how quickly you can power through it is missing something rather important.

Re:Doubtful

[PopeRatzo]

Aside from steam, I've ditched computer gaming too.

Aside from cigarettes, I've given up smoking.

Re:Doubtful

[Yvan256]

It's the usual quantity vs quality. Some people prefer one over the other. Me, I still need to finish Metroid Prime 3.

Re:Doubtful

[Sheik Yerbouti]

While that was true at one point Moore's Law has eroded the assertion that computer gaming has a high cost of entry quite a bit. I just built a new Linux workstation that would actually be a quite good gaming rig for $600.00 that's pretty darn cheap. Desktop hardware prices have continued there downward trend since you left gaming on the PC. This particular PC has quad core athlon xII, 4GB ram, Nvidia 9800GT with 512MB ram, 1TB Hard drive, Optical drive etc... Next month it will be even cheaper. And in addition to gaming with it it's also a computer which you were likely going to have to buy to read slashdot.

And we seemed to have reached a plateau on raster based 3D graphics the trend is still up and to the right in terms of transistor counts and polys and shaders and what not but it seem more shallow to me the last few years. We may in fact be approaching the point of integration for hardware accelerated 3D in to motherboards that are acceptable for most games. I will somewhat boldly predict we will see quite good 3D cards built in to MOBOs within the next 5 years.

Re:Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

'shh! Just don't mention the lenslok...'

Re:Doubtful

[Gilmoure]

And then flipping through the manual looking for word 6 of paragraph 2 on page 12 so you could actually play it.

Stoopid SIM Earth!

Re:Doubtful

[Monkeedude1212]

You mean back when the team consisted of 1 programmer, 1 animator, 1 artist, and 1 person in marketting? And getting a game to sell a million copies was impossible because there were barely that many home PC's?

PC Gaming back then was entirely different than it was now. I would say that PC gaming was at its peak those years before the NES blasted off. It's been the slowest downhill incline ever since, with a few upward bumps to give us glimmering hope.

Re:Doubtful

[blahplusplus]

"Clearly you don't remember fiddling with config.sys for those last few K needed for the game you just bought."

But notice how once you had that fixed, dos games were often much more stable and less crash prone. Note also you can run dos games today under dosbox emulator but many older windows direct X games are still horribly broken, Mechwarrior 2 for windows specifically used an incredibly early version of direct x which doesn't work on modern systems.

Windows is not some panacea try running an old copy of FF7 for the PC on a modern system.

Re:Doubtful

[sznupi]

"Windows is not some panacea try running an old copy of FF7 for the PC on a modern system."

It's especially telling when it's usually much more straightforward and faster to just run the console version under emulator than the native PC one.

Re:Doubtful

[aztracker1]

I could see it going either way, with a bit more emphasis on OpenCL, and WebGL I could see in 3-5 years that web gaming could improve a lot. Most game controllers have a pretty standard layout, and button settings. Not to mention, I've been enjoying Quake Live quite a bit. I'd be ashamed to see too much more emphasis on the likes of FarmVille, but hey, it happens. Who knows really, it would be possible to have some very immersive environments in a fullscreen web centric UI. I think it could be done to the level of say EQ1, or Runescape fairly easily without any plugins in most of the v.Next browsers.

Re:Doubtful

[BigSes]

EMM386!! Origin games were notorious for their requirements when it came to memory management in DOS. Ugh!

Re:Doubtful

[Hamsterdan]

What about when a publisher doesn't support newer OS versions? Star Trek Armada support stops at Win98. It does run on XP, but sometimes it drops back to the desktop (I love when it does this in multiplayer). So I still have a machine running on 98SE, because it only runs fine on that OS.

They don't support their game, and don't release source to the game engine so people could port it to newer platforms. I'm pretty sure they don't even sell it anymore.

Same goes for Star Trek: 25th anniversary, A call for Unity, and many other games (TIE FIGHTER, I'm talking about you)

So I still have an 800Mhz P3 under 98SE (512MB) for old games, along with an overclocked (am5x86 133@160) 486 class machine (32MB beast) running DOS 6.22/Wfw 3.11 for even older games

Not all games can be run under ScummVM/DOSbox/VDMsound in a reliable fashion

Re:Doubtful

[CronoCloud]

Yep, PC gaming was at it's peak from 83-87. Because then, there was no other real way to play. Course, if you couldn't afford a computer then, you were out of luck and had to stick with a 2600 until the NES started rising.

Re:Doubtful

[armareum]

I believe Dust 512 due to come out next year will look to achieve just that

Re:Doubtful

[anarche]

hahahaha! ahhhah manuals. who needs em now?

Re:Doubtful

[ucblockhead]

FYI: IL*Surmovik is available for the PS3, and you can get a USB flight stick control. It's not perfect, but it does mostly work. (It's unplayable without the flight stick.)

Re:Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

If you're paying by the hour speed is your friend.

Re:Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

But a console isn't a console any more. Consoles are now capable of running games, applications, internet connectivity/communications, booting other operating systems. They have firmware upgrade, patches for games, etc. They have basically become stripped down PCs. In a few more years, the line between a console and a PC will blur even more as consoles become powerful enough to run heavy duty apps and gain enough software support.

So you see, your friends haven't ditched computers for consoles. They've ditched computers for another kind of computer.

Re:Doubtful

[ZosX]

I tracked down a copy of lightspeed (never could find hyperspeed which is better) on some abandonware site one day. Fired it up and it asks a question right from the manual. I used to have all of these memorized, but now I can't find a damned one. I tried a crack, it corrupted the exe. I was really sad. I was totally looking forward to sweet nostalgia. That game did a lot of things that were really cool and was pretty ahead of its time in a lot of ways. If anyone has a copy of the manual, they would totally be my hero forever!

Re:Doubtful

[ZosX]

laptops are portable.

Re:Doubtful

[mjwx]

As a long time PC gamer, I'd say games are easier to play now than they ever were on the PC. Games tend to support the vast amount of hardware out there, even low end stuff.

Hardware is considerably less varied then it used to be. There are only two CPU manufacturers and two GPU manufactures and they both use the same framework (DirectX unfortunately)

I haven't had a driver issue in a long time, you may want to upgrade to computer made after 2000.

Drivers are only ever an issue for the bleeding edge, wait a month or two and the problems are gone. I havent had a driver issue since Fallout 3.

DRM can be an issue but it's only invasive on a small number of titles that I don't buy (they're usually console ports anyway).

The industry is dealing with DRM, Valve and Stardock have proven that you get the same amount of sales without invasive DRM. Even EA is starting to wake up.

If you want to be a PC gamer without the cost then one should become what I term a "last years gamer". Just hold off on buying brand new PC games for 6 to 12 months and enjoy the benefits of price reductions on both games and hardware. I kind of wish I had the patience to do it.

Re:Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

Manual fot lightspeed:
http://www.the-underdogs.org/game.php?id=639

Manual for hyperspeed:
http://www.the-underdogs.org/game.php?name=Hyperspeed

Re:Doubtful

[bigstrat2003]

It's cheaper just to buy a console every few years than it is to upgrade my PC with every new software release.

That's not particularly true, unless you're buying very far ahead into the technology curve. A new console (at the release) will cost you $300 or $400 (The good version of the 360 was $400, as I recall), and an occasional upgrade to your PC will run you about the same. And when you're in between upgrades, you'll be able to run all the games you want just fine. It's not like every game is an order of magnitude more demanding than the last.

Re:Doubtful

[poetmatt]

article is not about PC's. It's about saying handheld devices versus consoles.

This is not "Consoles are dying, pcs are the solution". As much as that may be the preferred route, Kojima has a good suggestion: an open access device that works on a laptop/tv/over the net/etc.

The flaw? Every device has different graphics capabilities: you don't *want* every display to look the same. Otherwise you get the equivalent of games like borderlands or starccraft 2 or MW2 where your resolution/field of view is artificially limited for sake of continuity.

Re:Doubtful

[jimnorcal]

Well, yea, having older machines to play older games is akin to having an NES still around so you can play your NES cartridges. It works both ways. However, with PC gaming there's still a chance you could get your older games to play on newer OSes with tweaks or emulators or something (you can emu your NES/SNES too but it's not as good as having the original console by any means). Of course, it may not play as well as it would on the original OS/333MHz PC, but it would still be playable enough to enjoy it. Now, enter x64 computers and hardly anything works. haha SO, yea, my point is that playing old games is like playing old console titles. It's best to keep an old machine around just as it is to keep your old console around. However, keeping around a big bulky PC sucks compared to keeping around a tiny console.

Re:Doubtful

[Anonymous Coward]

Computers have become a lot less user(owner) friendly since then.

Gonna go out on a limb here

[Pojut]

I know the guy is widely respected in gaming circles, but...is there anyone out there other than me that can't stand most of his gaming work?

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[Anonymous Coward]

MGS was good. Megaman is a classic. I don't like consoles.

The latter MGSs had horrid cutscenes.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[HAKdragon]

What does Megaman have to do with Kojima?

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[poetmatt]

maybe he mixed up capcom on that. Anyway, Konami and Capcom have both made great games over the years. Plenty of flops too, but their great games are now definite cult classics.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[Hatta]

Have you played Snatcher?

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[MikeBabcock]

I enjoy his games but I often wish he worked under another manager who would help direct his work a little more smoothly.

Notably, this is the same Kojima who didn't think HD was that big of a deal for games and didn't see the point in going all super high resolution for MGS4 ... and didn't.

Consider that MGS4 has load times worthy of watching an entire sitcom episode when other PS3-specific games like R&C or Uncharted have stream loading and almost no delays between levels as a result.

I can ignore the writing and bad jokes and horrible timeline issues as standard low budget Japanese fare (try reading some manga sometime), but the production quality really wasn't there for me, except on sound.

Oh well. He can have his opinions but they're not valuable to me.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[CelticWhisper]

Me. For starters, I HATE stealth games or stealth elements in non-stealth games, so MGS is right out. I played Lunar Knights for the DS, which had sneaking sections that pretty much ruined that one as well. The only good thing I think he's ever done is the Zone of the Enders series and the second game, while overall better than the first, had parts that were absolutely infuriating. One particular boss battle sees me turning the game off at roughly the halfway point because of how absurdly hard it is compared to the rest of the game both preceding and following it ("cross swords and grab, cross swords and grab," in case you were wondering). Shame, too, since the best parts of the game were after that sorry excuse for a boss battle.

Atop it all, a lot of his work seems both pretentious and ridiculous at the same time, which is not a good combination to me. You expect me to listen to a man wax lyrical on the nature of war after he's spent an hour running around with a cardboard box over his head, and then take all this seriously? Sorry, no deal, no cookie.

A visionary he may be, but a creator of fun games he is NOT. Hideo Kojima, of all people, saying that consoles are dying translates into "Buy stock in Nintendo. Lots of stock. NOW."

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[mister_playboy]

You expect me to listen to a man wax lyrical on the nature of war after he's spent an hour running around with a cardboard box over his head, and then take all this seriously? Sorry, no deal, no cookie.

You summed it up much better than I could have! Kudos.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[Anonymous Coward]

Agree, MGS4 was maybe the most boring game I've played. It's a few minutes of actual gameplay, followed by 10 minute cut scene, then few more minutes of gameplay, another massive cutscene and so on. The guy obviously wants to direct movies more than produce games. I never finished MGS4, and know others who felt the same about it. All hype.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[dysonlu]

"You expect me to listen to a man wax lyrical on the nature of war after he's spent an hour running around with a cardboard box over his head, and then take all this seriously?" You obviously don't appreciate japanese humour.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[CronoCloud]

No one has, because only the editors and staff at video game magazines owned Sega CD's! Same goes for the Neo-Geo.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here

[mjwx]

I know the guy is widely respected in gaming circles, but...is there anyone out there other than me that can't stand most of his gaming work?

No, you're not. Kojima doesn't produce games really, he produces movies. The last MGS was something like 60% cut scenes, you could get away with that in 1997 perhaps but in the day and age of writing stories into the actual game play (Deus Ex, System Shock, Half Life) the cut scene should never be over used like it was in the last MGS. That game wasn't a game, it was a movie that required you to press buttons to progress, it may have been a quite good movie but it makes as much sense as putting Quick Time Events into books.

Note to Kojima/Playstation fanboys, this post contains humour, sarcasm and trace amounts of hyperbole. Please consult a doctor if mouth frothing persists.

It's true

[Xtravar]

The console makers keep shooting themselves in the foot. I'm going to build a gaming HTPC soon. I can't buy both PSN and XBL content because I don't want to update my consoles and lose features, get banned, etc.

Re:It's true

[Anonymous Coward]

Perhaps you might want to read about PC gaming and DRM? It makes the tech news at least twice a month as something falls foul of the latest scheme to prevent you from playing a game you've purchased. Oh, I see, you want to run the superior pirate versions.

Ulcer

[Thanshin]

There must be some hundreds of people who've felt the hit of those declarations.

I can only imagine how I'd roll with such a punch... "This will be the year of Linux on the desktop" - Bill Gates... Unngh.

Re:Ulcer

[rolfwind]

I can only imagine how I'd roll with such a punch... "This will be the year of Linux on the desktop" - Bill Gates... Unngh.

Bill Gates also predicted in the early '00s that in 5-6 years everyone would have a tablet PC.

The thing is, even people famous in the fields they are farseeing are often wrong. Now, Bill Gates predicting that for Linux may be a short term propaganda coup for Linux (or a trap when it doesn't turn true) and it's nice to hear them share their vision of things but reality is a different beast.

I respect Kojima, and I'd pay 10x as much attention if Miyamoto said it, but it's better to apply critical thinking rather than have it become a self-fulfilling prophecy by virtue of edict.

Re:Ulcer

[bigstrat2003]

Bill Gates also predicted in the early '00s that in 5-6 years everyone would have a tablet PC.

On the other hand, it's entirely possible that now, 10 years later, everyone will have a tablet PC. I think the iPad is a shitty, shitty product... but I also know that Steve Jobs' true (only) genius is as a salesman, and if anyone can make it happen he can.

He predicts the console will be replaced...

[Anonymous Coward]

...by Sun's Java-based diskless network computers.

Not so certain...

[Drakkenmensch]

Many people have predicted the move toward either One Single Console To Rule Them All, or in this case none at all. The problem with this sort of prediction is that it does not account for the profitability of such systems. As long as money CAN be made by putting out a console, someone will. And as long as someone does, others will want a share of that pie, thus competition. It's the reason why Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo could fold eventually and still we'd end up with a multiple console market competition.

Re:Not so certain...

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

Many people have predicted the move toward either One Single Console To Rule Them All, or in this case none at all. The problem with this sort of prediction is that it does not account for the profitability of such systems.

Actually, I believe it does to some extent. Right now, most console makers profit primarily upon game licensing revenue. Nintendo makes some money on the hardware as well. So what happens when a company decides to undercut the existing players and just sell the hardware at a profit, while making game licensing as cheap as possible. We're looking at an iPhone store model here, where developers pay next to nothing and the hardware maker is content to profit on their own apps and the hardware profit. It's the profitability of the current model that will keep existing players from adapting fast enough, opening the way for the "one true console" maker to gain enough momentum to dominate the market. Once established, such dominance is hard to shake.

I'm actually surprised none of the major TV makers have gone this route, providing a built in console for little added cost, perhaps even opening up the spec to competitors, just as a way to get a head start and grab some more market share. Apple is certainly considering such a market, although they might have too much going right now to do it.

Re:Not so certain...

[Nerdfest]

Perhaps the major game studios should get together a build a console. It's actually surprising it hasn't happened .. as a group, they certainly have the money these days. I'm not sure it would be a good thing ...

Re:Not so certain...

[phantomfive]

Yeah, this seems like the frustration of a person who has just gone through the difficulty of porting over various platforms. I've had similar thoughts after trying to make J2ME work in different phones, and going crazy with the various incompatibilities. I'll bet he had a lot more trouble porting the metal gear solid platform to PSP than he expected.

Seriously, at one point my coworker said, "This is crazy, I want to finish this and get a job doing web programming where there are no incompatibilities." I said, "what about the browsers?" He said, "Yeah, there are only three of them!" and I had to confess he had a point.

Re:Not so certain...

[Monkeedude1212]

Thats the problem though, Microsoft has found that their entertainment industry is a bit of a money pit. Maybe not as bad as some people make it sound, but its not nearly as profitable as Office or Windows. Every X-box sold means they are losing money (the cost of producing one is more than the cost they sell it at, or the margins are so thin they don't make enough to justify shipping it out). They try to make more money in licensing for games, but more and more people are going "I don't want to pay $70 for a new game, I'll wait for it to go down to $30 used" - and so game sales are down.

If you lived in Canada, they had 1 vs 100 on Xbox live as a way to get people to buy XboxLive Gold subscriptions. I remember the calender for shows going at least till July, and some for even the christmas season this year. It appears to have been pulled, or post-poned. It's no longer active, and the only reason I can think why is that the cost of running it didn't bring in enough subscribers. And no one wanted to pay for advertising, which is why they had the same 4 ads played over and over.

Point is, games are where the money is at. You sell the console for petty sums and make it all up in game licensing. If you pay Microsoft to allow your game on the 360, that means the price of the game goes up, which means less sales, which means less profit for both you and MS. Microsoft has tried to counter this by buying up other game dev companies, or working in a coexisting sense. However, Microsoft has a knack for pissing developers right off. Remember Bungie? There's a reason why they left the agreement they had with MS, they didn't like working under them. And how many game companies can you name that were bought by MS that have either dissolved or turned into suck? I can think of one for every finger, at least.

I don't know what its like exactly at Sony or Nintendo, but it can't be too different. Nintendo has at least branched out to the casual gaming crowd and will easily keep afloat so long as they do what they've been doing. Sony has the benefit of Blu Ray winning the format war, so if you're thinking of a Blu Ray Player, the only reason not to buy one is the price, which when you consider its a gaming console as well (if you like gaming) then its a solid investment. So - if the trend continues, yeah, Microsoft will either have to change its ways, or it'll end up cutting the whole console business out of its strategy. Because right now, they aren't doing so hot.

Re:Not so certain...

[Anonymous Coward]

Er, there's a categorical difference between one console and zero consoles. Your argument only works as an argument against one console. Zero consoles obviously implies that there is no market.

Re:Not so certain...

[stewbacca]

One Single Console to Rule them All...isn't that a PC? I mean, isn't that the argument FOR PCs and against Macs in every PC vs. Mac thread ever?

Re:Not so certain...

[Drakkenmensch]

How can you be so sure that nobody WANTS to own a console just because there are none to sell? There was "no market" after the great video game crash of Atari in 1983, but that did not stop Nintendo from making a smash commercial success with the NES a few years later.

Re:Not so certain...

[Anonymous Coward]

IE6, IE7, IE8, Firefox, Opera, Safari, Chrome, Konqueror... and those are the ones I care to test on, there are more.

Re:Not so certain...

[Drakkenmensch]

Consider that a console is a single model built on an assembly line with the same hardware, the same firmware, the same OS. Now compare PCs... literally thousands of possible combinations of hardware , software and operating system. PC is Legion, for it is many.

Re:Not so certain...

[VGPowerlord]

If you lived in Canada, they had 1 vs 100 on Xbox live as a way to get people to buy XboxLive Gold subscriptions.

And in the United States. I think it was available in Europe, too.

But only to Gold subscribers.

Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[Anonymous Coward]

Heavy Metal Solid Gear? ROFL... Should be Metal Gear Solid ;)

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[lowlymarine]

That's far from the only error in the summary. My suspicion is that it was written just to infuriate those of us who have OCD about proper grammar and sentence structure. EG:

Konami founder and developer Hideo Kojima predicts gaming console is a dying breed. Anticipates gaming on demand via Internet.

The flow of that is positively dreadful.

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[WrongSizeGlass]

I find the lack of commas alarming. William Shatner could never read that if it was in a script.

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[e4g4]

My initial reaction to reading that was: "Is Hideo Kojima releasing a game with that title to get confused parents to buy the wrong game when little Johnny asks for Metal Gear Solid?"

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[Anonymous Coward]

Not to mention that Amazon and the others I just checked say June...

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[Anonymous Coward]

I believed it. Although it's easy to forget once you've heard it a thousand times, "Metal Gear Solid" is already nongrammatical word salad. Is "Heavy Metal Solid Gear" for a spinoff series a stretch?

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[Anonymous Coward]

Heavy Metal is a totally different series

Yeah, if you're going to screw up the name, at least mix it up with something awesome like Metal Wolf Chaos. (Are you a bad enough president to save the dudes?)

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[Anonymous Coward]

But that is the beauty of Shatner. He reads commas where there are none to be read.

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[fondacio]

For such a short summary, it sure contains a lot of errors. Kojima is not even a founder of Konami - the company was established in 1969, and Kojima was born in 1963. He only joined Konami's MSX division in 1986, when the company had already been making video games for a while. He did go on to become a VP for a while. And this error isn't even in the original article.

procrastination

[tilminator]

Procrastination drives much of my own gaming, and I think this holds for a large share of people. The closer a game comes to my "legit" computer usage, the more likely I will pick it up. So yes, game consoles do not stand a chance with me.

Re:procrastination

[Anonymous Coward]

So true.

Dying?

[Anonymous Coward]

Is this related to that "other os" thing dying...? ;-)

Heavy Metal Solid Gear?

[Syberz]

The game's name is Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker. Heavy Metal is a totally different series.

I trust you not

[Neuroticwhine]

While i love seeing these predictions from time to time... i actually played his last game and realized that whoever wrote it must have been completely bat shit crazy. I wouldnt trust the guy to wipe my ass, much less predict the future of gaming. Imo of course.

Re:I trust you not

[Anonymous Coward]

The fact that the quote came from Kojima is quite pertinent here. I'm convinced the guy doesn't even like videogames. He just wants to make a movie (MGS4 was what, 30 minutes of gameplay diluted into 6 hours of cutscenes?). So what he says might essentially be true; consoles are dead to him, and he's moving on. I think we'll all be happier for it.

Re:I trust you not

[Jedi Alec]

I wouldnt trust the guy to wipe my ass, much less predict the future of gaming.

Ehmm, do you typically trust other guys to wipe your ass? Because if not that statement doesn't really mean much. ;-) I hesitate to speak for others, but purely on a personal title there are *some* things I really only trust myself to do...wiping my ass ranking pretty damn high on that list.

Java? Internet? iPad? Magic?

[WrongSizeGlass]

"In the near future, we'll have games that don't depend on any platform," Kojima said

Kojima makes his prediction as he designed a follow-up game called Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker, scheduled for a late April launch. His development company, Konami Corp. has partnered with Sony and the portable PSP device.

What magic codebase or architecture is he talking about? Surely it isn't Java ... and internet based gaming isn't reliable for those without great broadband ... and the iPad will be OK for casual games but not a 'console quality' gaming experience. Is he talking about a handheld device (aka PSP?) that plugs into your TV, then hits the road with you?

Re:Java? Internet? iPad? Magic?

[DunbarTheInept]

I am 100% convinced that every game will depend on a platform. Nobody's going to be writing self contained all-in-one games where the game embeds the whole platform (what, is this 1975, with embedded "pong" consoles.?)

You will need something to run it on.

What he probably meant to say was "don't depend on any particular specific platform."

Re:Java? Internet? iPad? Magic?

[VGPowerlord]

What magic codebase or architecture is he talking about?

The first thing that came to mind when I read the summary was OnLive. With OnLive, all the processing is done on OnLive's side.

Heaven forbid you get any lag, though.

Mutually Exclusive? I think not

[tsj5j]

Consoles are merely a platform whereas the internet is a medium. I can easily imagine a future (or even partially present) where internet speeds make it viable for optical media to be obsolete, and hence allowing for games to easily and confidently implement online multiplayer components without alienating their player base that suffers from poor connections. (though it might be a sad one with DRM).

Depends what type of gaming

[rolfwind]

For casual gaming, yes and this has already happened to a degree with smartphones.

But for hardcore or graphics intensive games, I don't see anything beyond PCs or consoles. Heck, the trend is so much towards consoles, this generation we have 3 of them with respectable size audiences. Six, if you count the DS, PSP, and PS2 (because it's still selling). Back in the original NES days, there was one winner and the rest were afterthoughts.

Years ago, things like the Wii Controller would only differentiate the systems if it came standard with the console, but really dedicated hardware like the Balance Board would never have taken off (power glove, super scope, etc anyone?) and after the initial game very few others would follow because the install base just wasn't there. Now even more dedicated hardware than the console/controller itself is taking off.

I just don't see platform agnostic gaming being feasible in the near-future. It's usually the attention to detail and tailored package that makes the experience and sale.

Re:Depends what type of gaming

[VGPowerlord]

Back in the original NES days, there was one winner and the rest were afterthoughts.

Of course, the NES generation was the last one where one single player dominated the entire video games console industry.

The very next generation was split nearly 50/50 between the Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo.

The two generations after that, Sony made a strong showing, causing Sega to leave the market completely and hurting Nintendo. Nintendo burned bridges by sticking with cartridge format for the Nintendo 64 and had poor third-party support on its subsequent console because of it.

This generation, Nintendo clawed its way back to the top with the Wii, with the Xbox 360 hot on its tail... Sony didn't fair so well this time around... but that could (theoretically) still turn around, as the PS3 Slim (with its price cut) has doubled PS3 sales, or so Sony said just recently.

Re:Depends what type of gaming

[esaulgd]

Six, if you count the DS, PSP, and PS2 (because it's still selling).

No, in 2009 the PS2 finally gave up the ghost and only sold in marginal quantities. And the PSP is only having healthy sales in Japan.

Re:Depends what type of gaming

[bigstrat2003]

This generation, Nintendo clawed its way back to the top with the Wii, with the Xbox 360 hot on its tail... Sony didn't fair so well this time around... but that could (theoretically) still turn around, as the PS3 Slim (with its price cut) has doubled PS3 sales, or so Sony said just recently.

I imagine that when the dust settles on the current generation of consoles, Sony will still be in third place, but it won't be a horrible showing, as it was turning out to be at first. The PS3 gets a lot more respect than it used to, but a lot of people simply aren't willing to buy multiple consoles, and chose the 360 a long time ago back when the PS3 was priced astronomically.

HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[tepples]

If you switch exclusively to HTPC gaming, what do you plan to do when friends come over, or when a relative drops kids off at your house? Apart from Sonic Kart and turn-based games like Checkers and FreeCiv, there aren't many notable PC games that let you share a PC and monitor with other players holding gamepads. Instead of splitting the screen (like in a racing game) or sharing a single view (like in a fighting game), most major-label PC games appear to need a separate gaming PC and monitor for each player. Or can you recommend some good single-screen multiplayer games made for the PC so that HTPC gaming can get out of the chicken-and-egg situation it's in right now?

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Thanshin]

If you switch exclusively to HTPC gaming, what do you plan to do when friends come over, or when a relative drops kids off at your house?

A - Have a party.
B - Sell them on the black market.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[bluesatin]

Both Left4Dead titles support split-screen with a little playing around in the config files, if I remember correctly.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Pojut]

Trine supports same-screen multiplayer gaming on a PC...and it's AWESOME.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Xtravar]

Many big name titles already don't support split screen on the 360 or PS3, because they realized their market is in online gaming with really good graphics. The Wii just doesn't count in this discussion, but yes it still serves that niche you speak of.

I forayed into console gaming. Found it fun, easy, and enjoyable until Sony and Microsoft became complete asshats. Going back to the ol' PC.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[hal2814]

Street Fighter IV was pretty notable. I prefer the PC version because I can use my hacked together arcade-quality USB joystick with it. It annoys me when I play tournaments using a stupid 360 or PS3 gamepad. Charge players like Blanka and Balrog just aren't the same. Which brings up MAME and emulators in general. Oh, and Madden has been multi-player single screen for a long time now for the PC (at least 10 years). The only was your statement really holds is if by "notable" you mean "FPS." And no, there are no PC FPSes I'm aware of that do split screen multiplayer gaming.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[tepples]

The Wii just doesn't count in this discussion, but yes it still serves that niche you speak of.

I forayed into console gaming. Found it fun, easy, and enjoyable until Sony and Microsoft became complete asshats.

In some ways, Nintendo is as much of a donkeyhat as Sony, just less competent at it. At least Microsoft has XNA, a limited platform for indie game developers.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[HarrySquatter]

Many big name titles already don't support split screen on the 360 or PS3, because they realized their market is in online gaming with really good graphics.

Many? Really? I doubt you could even provide 30 examples of multiplayer games that don't have split screen.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[HarrySquatter]

I should alter my statement. By "multiplayer" I mean co-op. So please, list these "many big name titles" that have a co-op mode but don't let you do it split screen. And since there are 1300 games between the PS3 and Xbox combined you should have no problems coming up with numerous examples.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[tepples]

Which brings up MAME and emulators in general.

I made a point to mention PC games because most emulated ROMs are not cleared for Internet distribution. So I'll pretend you said "Midway Arcade Treasures and Namco Museum" instead, in which case I sort of agree.

Oh, and Madden has been multi-player single screen for a long time now for the PC (at least 10 years).

Madden NFL 09 and Madden NFL 10 have no PC version.

The only was your statement really holds is if by "notable" you mean "FPS."

I'm assembling a list of HTPC party games and am looking for viable alternatives to console party games such as Bomberman, Smash Bros., Mario Party, and the like. Can you think of any more good ones?

And no, there are no PC FPSes I'm aware of that do split screen multiplayer gaming.

For co-op there are Serious Sam and L4D.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Pinky's Brain]

There's always MAME.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[MBGMorden]

When you look at the rise of online multiplayer, I think the style of gaming you describe is already dying out - even on consoles. When people play with multiple people, they tend to play online, with their own equipment. I'm sure at least 3 or 4 people will chime in with "BUT I STILL HAVE FRIENDS OVER TO PLAY!!!", and that's fine, but it's not a question of whether or not such a thing EVER happens, but rather if it's a situation common enough for the market to keep catering to it. If we're not past that point already, we're fast approaching it.

Besides - I can play video games all the time - with our without other players, when I want to kill time. Why would I waste face-time with my friends pulling out video games?

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Xiph1980]

You do know that it actually is possible to have fun without a computer on at all? Especially with friends over, you just have a party. And kids, even nowadays are easy to entertain by giving them (depending on the age ofcourse) a stack of paper and some crayons. I don't even own a game console, and *gasp* still get on pretty well, and parties really aren't boring orso. Infact, my experience is that parties without game consoles are more fun than parties with.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[BobNET]

can you recommend some good single-screen multiplayer games made for the PC

Scorched Earth.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[tepples]

I made a point to mention PC games because MAME comes without ROMs, and at $150,000 each, I'll pass.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[spire3661]

Street fighter 4 is a great PC multiplayer game.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Xtravar]

Oh sure, first it's 30 titles, now it's "it has to also be co-op".

I don't have time for this nonsense. I'm sure you play some great split-screen games.

All I can tell you is that more often than not, I've encountered 360 games I had presumed would play locally and only play online. Games where you would either expect it from the series or genre, or where the Wii version has local multiplayer.

So the fact that I can't play the games that I **desire and expect** to be able to is more important than rambling off a list of B or C titles that I don't want to play! The trend is there, and I can only imagine it getting worse unless motion sensing controllers take off on the PS3/360.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Jaysyn]

Unreal Tournament III for the PC not only does splitscreen, it will also do quad splitscreen. Unfortunately it appears that the only controllers that will work for this are the X-box controllers which kinda defeats the purpose of a PC FPS (at least for me, never could use console controllers for FPS games).

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, but you're also an adult. Think about kids who have friends over after school or siblings. Jesus christ since when did grown ass adults become the only market for video games?

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[mister_playboy]

How exactly would you set up K&M for four players while using one computer screen? Controllers would seem to be a necessity.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[Jaysyn]

The motherboard on my PC has 8 USB ports & you could add more with a USB dock.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[CronoCloud]

Since about 1993 actually, when developers, publishers and some console manufacturers figured out that some people had been gaming since the 2600 and the early arcade games and were thusly....adults. And unlike kids, we don't have to wait for birthdays or Christmas to get games. There's also more of us, because you're only a child for a short period of time.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[icebraining]

I made a point to mention PC games because most emulated ROMs are not cleared for Internet distribution. So I'll pretend you said "Midway Arcade Treasures and Namco Museum" instead, in which case I sort of agree.

I get when people say that we should get illegal copies of games because we should help the developer or because it's leading to more DRM, but objecting to downloading MAME roms? Really?

You know, "the law" isn't a very good moral compass, unless you find it immoral to play card games on a Sunday, in Alabama.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[drinkypoo]

To be fair, you can get motherboards for many common arcade games for less than $100, because people have stacks and racks of them. PROM burners (which also function as readers) are often available under $100. So for around the price of Neo-Geo games, you could have legal license to arcade ROMs. Keep the ROMs in boxes and throw away the motherboards to save space. It's still pretty spendy in most cases, but I suppose some people might be willing to pay.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg

[adolf]

Scorched Earth

Seconded.

Newer incarnations, most of which I've never tried: Scorched 3D, a browser-playable Java version called Scorch 2000, and others.

They're killing themselves.

[girlintraining]

Console makers are intent on depriving their customers of features that are easy to impliment, useful, and are value-added. Why? Because the content providers don't want that functionality available (DRM). As a result, computers become more versatile every year, while consoles become increasingly limited to single applications. In an era where information complexity is increasing exponentially, and we demand more for less every year, these two trends push the demand curve for consoles down.

Solution: Make consoles more useful and flexible.

What they're going to do instead: Dig themselves in a deep hole trying to serve the content providers instead of the customers. Eventually all three -- the content provider, the console manufacturer, and the customer, will become sick of the dichotomy and stop buying consoles.

Re:They're killing themselves.

[geekoid]

So your solution is to make console more PC like?

heh.

Re:They're killing themselves.

[Anonymous Coward]

Well consoles have been running PC hardware for years now. They *are* PCs already, just slightly specialized and highly restrictive.

last console I played (and still do from time to time) is NES, and occasionally the Atari 2600. New consoles don't make any sense to me, I already have a computer that can run higher FPS and do more.

Re:They're killing themselves.

[Anonymous Coward]

In my day a PC would do anything you told it to do. I think this is still the case. I don't know how things staying the same is becoming "more versatile"

Also in my day a console would do only one thing, play games built for the system. I never heard anyone talking about installing linux on a NES. Recently console makers have experimented with making consoles more flexible I don't know enough to say if the experiment was beneficial to them but I'd guess no since they are RETURNING to the status quo of completely locked down instead of moving to a more open environment. I'd like to blame the people who take a look at the flexibility provided and then say "But it's not enough!" and force the console open more than the console makers are willing to risk. When you ask your mom for money and when she gives you $1 you don't say "But that's not enough" and take her whole purse.

Re:They're killing themselves.

[Anonymous Coward]

There is some merit in your argument, but at the end of the day a console is not a computer and most people are willing to accept that; otherwise you will end up bolting things on until you arrive back at a computer. I find it strange that you bring up DRM on consoles when it is drastically worse on PCs; in fact, it is one of the main contributing factors many people (including myself) cite in their decision to ditch the PC for the console.

Re:They're killing themselves.

[HarrySquatter]

As a result, computers become more versatile every year, while consoles become increasingly limited to single applications.

And at the same time console and console game sales keep growing every year with sales that are eclipsing the PC version of a game by sometimes more than a magnitude. You tend to overestimate how much DRM and the locked-down nature of a console matters to most people. That is, it's a non-issue.

Re:They're killing themselves.

[jedidiah]

The DRM is no less problematic on a console. It just doesn't get in the
way so much. The consoles are already walled gardens. They don't so much
need to f*ck with your general purpose machine in some vain effort to
prevent you from pirating their game. The console being crippled already
seems to solve most of the "problem".

DRM on a console will probably yield a more convenient result than trying
to do the same on a PC.

"Gigabytes on disk + needing disk in CD drive" always bugged the h*ll out of me on PC games.

Put it on the HD, or leave it on the optical disk. Don't pollute my system
and then make me dig out physical media every time I want to play something.
If I want 2600-esque physical media experience then I can just use a console.

Re:They're killing themselves.

[Anonymous Coward]

If it doesn't get in the way so much then isn't it by definition less problematic? I agree that it's a bit annoying to require the disc, but it's nowhere near as bad as what you typically find with PC games (which also require the disc on top of all the other bullshit they pull).

Re:They're killing themselves.

[MikeBabcock]

Isn't that what the failed XBOX project was?

The thing Microsoft dropped like a hot potato after trying to prove to the world that a PC-platform based machine would make a better console?

Interesting how their much more successful 360 doesn't use a PC platform at all anymore.

Consoles, VMs and the Internet

[NonSenseAgency]

The console itself may not be dead, but will just become one more internet "appliance", doing precisely what Konami says, accessing the net on demand to play the users game of choice. With VMs becoming more and more prevalent it is only a matter of time before they start to appear on consoles. It would not be very hard to do it now in fact. So a console could run a VM to appear to be any machine....or a PC could run VM to appear to be a console, hmmmm.

Re:Consoles, VMs and the Internet

[DunbarTheInept]

VM's introduce a huge slowdown unless they're able to use the hardware natively because the emulated machine is hardware-compatible with the host machine. So, the reason VMware works so well is that it emulates intel machines... on intel machines. If it had to emulate a different CPU, it would be quite a bit slower than the native hardware.

VM's are good for backward-compatibility with previous generation machines, where you can accept the slowdown of a VM because the new machine is faster than the emulated one. But as a way to compete with a competitor's machine of the same generation, both cutting edge, it won't be fast enough unless everyone's using the same hardware architecture under the hood.

Re:Consoles, VMs and the Internet

[VGPowerlord]

The console itself may not be dead, but will just become one more internet "appliance", doing precisely what Konami says, accessing the net on demand to play the users game of choice.

Like the Onlive console?

I wonder if this is Kojima's way of saying he plans on developing titles for OnLive.

Re:Consoles, VMs and the Internet

[NonSenseAgency]

All quite true. However, with the ability of modern consoles spiralling ever upward in power and ability, a point is soon reached where it will be "good enough" even if it is emulating a different architecture. Even in twitch games, if the machine can respond faster than your reflexes without perceptible lag, does it really matter that it is emulating a PC or a PS2? But this is all moot if the game is written to be truly architecture independent and there has been quite a lot of improvement along those lines lately too. Again, the hardware is "good enough" or soon will be, so the platform itself becomes irrelevant.

Re:Consoles, VMs and the Internet

[DunbarTheInept]

I don't agree because I think games will always expand to fill the available clock cycles - in sort of the same way that software bloats to fill the available disk space. People making the cutting edge games will make them fill ALL available CPU usage. If it's not using it all up, then that means features that were trimmed out can be left in instead of being cut.

By thinking that the human's reflexes are the limiting factor in how much CPU usage the computer needs, it shows you're not really thinking about all the work the computer does under the hood. Say you're playing a graphics-intensive driving game like GTA. Having more CPU cycles means the NPC's can be smarter. The drivers can drive more realistically. The machine can track the motion of all the cars in the city instead of having them leave memory when they get far enough away. (Current generation GTA games have the "peeka-boo" effect where things don't exist when you can't see them. More CPU cycles would mean better object permanence and people and cars can be doing things "off screen".)

Games will expand to fill the available CPU cycles.

Pfft

[Quiet_Desperation]

I haven't listened to anything that guy says since having to bleach my eyes after naked Raiden.

Now if he announced a web game where Snake invades Farmville with giant mechs I might take notice.

It'll happen at some point

[aztektum]

With services being integrated into TVs and being able to get home theaters streaming from a file server, I don't doubt a dedicated console will disappear from living rooms. The games will still be there, but they will be loaded on your server/computer and allow you stream them to whatever room you're in. Sort of like a localized OnLive.

Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will try to keep you locked into their platform, but that will only last a generation or so longer. I can see Steam becoming even bigger and integrating the streaming play, locking others in a different room out while you're logged into your account (unless they have an account of their own).

Re:It'll happen at some point

[Low Ranked Craig]

I really hope so. In my case it will ALL disappear. We're planning on replacing our 15 year old system which consists of a 60" RPTV, DVD player, XBOX, Cable decoder box, etc, with a 63" LEDLCD TV and a media pc. I will not be buying a dedicated DVD or bluray player, or any dedicated device. I will hook up the PC to my receiver and the TV. That's it. All DVDs and BluRays will get ripped onto the server in the closet. All my music is already on a server. Dedicated devices need too many remotes, take up too much space and collect dust.

These types of articles ...

[jsnipy]

These guesses at the future state of things are no more insightful than someone saying "FIRST POST".

He's right though...

[yurtinus]

It will come right after the year of Linux on the desktop.

Re:He's right though...

[Anonymous Coward]

Sure! It's the "other os" that died right?

Re:He's right though...

[Anonymous Coward]

And, unfortunately, right before Duke Nukem Forever is released for all consoles.

Re:He's right though...

[Anonymous Coward]

but still long before Duke Nukem Forever...

Engrish in summary

[Anonymous Coward]

Gaming console is dying breed! Han han han!

I hope not

[Kyru]

I can think of worse things to happen to gaming, but not many. Until the Internet is as reliable and widespread as electricity there isn't much chance of this happening and working.

Yes, and in 2015 we'll have flying cars.

[Ordonator]

The big theme at GDC this year was social platforms, with the evangelists insisting that hardcore gaming is going away forever within 5 years. 5 years ago, these same guys were using absolutes to describe the total decline of PC gaming. Nobody said a word about Facebook. The only prediction worth putting stock into is that the future will continue to become more unpredictable.

Reverse

[wisnoskij]

Was it not just a week or 2 ago that someone else said that the end of computer gaming was coming soon, and consoles would reign supreme?

Re:Reverse

[Anonymous Coward]

make 2 opposite predictions under 2 different pseudonyms then if either comes to pass claim one and deny having guessed the other.

Re:Reverse

[DdJ]

It's not a reverse. He's not predicting that gaming will go back to PCs. He's saying that gaming won't be tied to any specific platform at all.

In other words, if we ended up with a world where every game ran on every console, every computer (PC/Mac/Linux), and every mobile device (PSP, DS, iPhone, Android, WP7), we'd be right where he predicted.

We get a lesser version of that today with cross-platform titles. I haven't seen PC gamers express much happiness at how that's turning out for them.

Re:Reverse

[Blakey Rat]

So weird! It's almost as if different people could have different opinions-- but that can't be right!

Re:Reverse

[Kittenman]

And Eurasia has always been at war with Oceania.

Re:HTPC gaming at a party

[idontgno]

Or by "party" did you mean "LAN party", which defeats the purpose of an HTPC?

"An" HTPC, perhaps. Multiple HTPCs, not so much. Since many multiplayer console games are still best played in multi-console LAN party mode. (Much less ass-hurt about "screen lookers", etc.)

Single-screen, single-console multiplayer console play is not something to be preserved as a valuable feature, but abolished as the crocky krufty wart it is.

10 types of people

[TheSHAD0W]

"There are 10 types of people... Those who understand binary, and those who do not."

Seriously, there are two kinds of spendy gamers out there. There are the non-technical types, who will go out there and buy a console, buy a bunch of games, buy new controllers... They have no desire for a true PC, don't want a desk to put the keyboard and mouse on, just want a little machine in their entertainment center.

Then there are the technical types, who want to upgrade their video card, processor, boot off a SSD... They want to be able to push the edge, and may get as much fun out of tinkering as they do from the gaming.

IMO *both* markets are worth pursuing, even if they diverge. Don't shove everything into one niche.

Re:10 types of people

[MikeBabcock]

And then there's the techies who work in computers for a living and maintain servers 10 hours a day who love going home to a PS3 that "just works" and can't be bothered paying to upgrade their PC regularly enough to keep up with the latest PC games.

Having paid the price of a good video card for my PS3, I've played a lot more hours of games on it than I ever expected and learned to love the console concept.

PS Stop it with generalizations you don't have stats to back.

Re:10 types of people

[7Prime]

Here here. I work as a video producer/editor and end up doing a lot of software troubleshooting at work, my main hobbies are music recording and sound design. At the end of the day, when I've finally been able to get myself into "leasure mode"... I don't want to have to do MORE technical things just to relax. It's hard enough to get myself settled into a non-productive mode, why would I want to turn around and risk stressing myself out even more?

At least gaming on PCs will have company

[dsmoses]

Since the future of PC Gaming is in doubt as well, at least they will have plenty of company. I guess that leaves Facebook games FTW.

Re:At least gaming on PCs will have company

[Dunbal]

What I think is really happening is that game devs are notoriously incapable of programming any challenging sort of AI for their games - resulting in people turning to multiplayer games for a challenge. Easier to give up than just convince the project leads to use a few less cpu cycles for eye candy and a few more cycles for better algorithms.

Of course there will always be demand for single player games because frankly the "lol lol lol I pwnz joo n00b!!11" gets old fast, as does the bunch of people incapable of actually completing a game and dropping out halfway through.

WRONG : What are the iPhone and iPad ???

[Weezul]

iPhone, iTouch, and iPad are information appliances with an incredibly well designed App Store, yes. As they are touch screen based, they are not particularly useful for business users that might need to write polite emails. So who uses them? We'll people browse the web and use web site apps, but the apps not oriented towards media consumption are GAMES !!!

I don't see why game consoles cannot have application stores that are every bit as successful as the iTunes Store, perhaps games requiring more storage will require different content models, like a cheap social initial game with costly running add-ons ala farmville, but the locked down hardware and distribution model historically occupied by consoles has actually expanded, not retracted.

Re:HTPC gaming at a party

[Anonymous Coward]

If you're having a party, and you're boycotting the consoles, what PC game do you load on the HTPC to play with your friends?

You realize you can have a party without playing video games, don't you?

Re:HTPC gaming at a party

[eddy the lip]

Psst: I think he meant a party with human interaction. Y'know, like in the old days.

Re:HTPC gaming at a party

[tepples]

The point of a party video game, as opposed to an online video game, is to be a conversation piece around which humans can begin to interact by trash talking.

Game content

[Neil Watson]

Doesn't the success of a platform be it console, PC or Internet live and die by the quality of the game? Would any of the big three consoles be big if there were no quality games? I don't think most people care what the game plays on so long as it meets their entertainment expectations.

Screen lookers

[tepples]

"An" HTPC, perhaps. Multiple HTPCs, not so much.

Now everyone needs to bring a gaming PC, a monitor, and a copy of the same game to the party. I was talking about parties where the people are here for some other reason, such as to celebrate a birthday, and they get an itch to play a video game. Do you always make sure to bring your gaming PC whenever you visit someone else's house just in case someone wants to game? I was also talking about situations in which not all players own their own gaming PC, such as kids still in school.

Much less ass-hurt about "screen lookers",

Not all video game designs depend on hiding information from other players, and a single screen is not necessarily split. What advantage would "screen lookers" have in a game like Super Smash Bros.?

Re:Screen lookers

[idontgno]

Now everyone needs to bring a gaming PC, a monitor, and a copy of the same game to the party.

Which is why the host provides all the PCs and displays.

Gaming is srs bzns; you gotta set it up RIGHT.

Not all video game designs depend on hiding information from other players,

But the good ones are. Sniper punkin' is much less fun if the target can see you zoom in on their ugly head. Ruins the surprise, ya know what I mean.

Besides, I think this discussion is veering widely away from any on-topic point. If one console is good enough, one HTPC is good enough. If one HTPC wouldn't be good enough, console wouldn't be either.

The only relevant wrinkle is that, for now, not all console games are on non-console platforms. Once consoles die their richly-deserved death, that will change (if the media publisher know what's good for 'em).

Re:Screen lookers

[Anonymous Coward]

The host provides all the HTPCs and displays? Wow, I'm NEVER going to host a party then. Do you have any idea how much that would cost?

As for the death of consoles, if you'd actually READ the article, you'd know that the summary is wildly inaccurate and that Kojima does NOT actually predict the death of consoles. They won't be dying any time soon.

Re:Screen lookers

[the_arrow]

So you have gaming computers worth tens of thousands of dollars in a special room just in case some friends decide to pop over for a quick game?

Is called the PC.

[Tei]

The PC is the Unique Gamming Platform.

The problem is that people like Sony and Microsoft are soo greedy, that want to control *everything* you say and do. Do you want to use a name with the letters "gay"? banned till 9/9/9999.

All these people (MS, Sony...) want to work in the "Bridge Tol" bussines. Just getting a piece for everything that moves in "his" hardware. Parasiting the work of others.

PSP is not the same thing...

[stewbacca]

Why do people keep insisting that PSP and iPhone games will supplant full-blown console games? They aren't even the same thing, to start with. I mean, unless I can hook up my wheel and pedals to my iPhone, then hook it up to a large screen display and into my surround sound, this is like saying the Sony Walkman will replace live concert audio systems.

Re:PSP is not the same thing...

[ucblockhead]

1) You can hook up a PSP to a television.

2) You can play all large number of PS One games on the PSP.

3) Some PSP games (Like "God of War: Chains of Olympus" or "Super Stardust HD") are very close to their console equivalents, differing mostly in handling the lack of a second analog stick.

End of All Gaming?!

[Anonymous Coward]

This reminds me of when everyone was predicting the end of PC gaming a few years ago. If PC and Console gaming both ended, we'd be left without gaming, highly doubtful.

Between the crayons and gossip stages

[tepples]

And kids, even nowadays are easy to entertain by giving them (depending on the age ofcourse) a stack of paper and some crayons.

My family's annual reunion tends to self-segregate into three areas: the table with the crayons and the modeling dough, the table with the video games, and the rest of the hall where the dominant activity is random gossip about friends of the family that others will probably never meet. I'm in charge of the video games, and I'm trying to prove that it's possible to replace the Wii with a PC, even among people between the crayons stage and the gossip stage.

Re:WRONG : What are the iPhone and iPad ???

[jedidiah]

The console vendors don't need to be megalomaniacal about distribution. The old model already
works pretty well for them. They simply don't have any need to lock you in like that. They can
do quite well with there being n+1 vendors out there where I can get a bit of media from to
play a game with.

The same goes for most stuff actually.

If Big Content weren't so paranoid about piracy, Apple would be moot.

Re:HTPC gaming at a party

[idontgno]

You have pretty limited experience with on-line games, don't you?

The "human interaction" is richly-textured and explores the full breadth of human ass-hattery, just like in person. Except it might depend on a modicum of skill with the push-to-talk button. And has less chance to degenerate into physical violence and law enforcement attention.

Re:HTPC gaming at a party

[Jaysyn]

A - Have a party.

That's one of the scenarios I was asking about. If you're having a party, and you're boycotting the consoles, what PC game do you load on the HTPC to play with your friends? Or by "party" did you mean "LAN party", which defeats the purpose of an HTPC?

Any of these I guess.

What what ?

[Anonymous Coward]

The world is full of prophets. Everybody has something to predict lately. Obviously, when so many monkeys type... or do predictions, some of them are bound to be true.

In a friction-less environment...

[Lalo Martins]

In a reasonable world, I suspect he'd be right. Early-gen consoles ruled because they were cheaper and easier than computers, later-gen consoles ruled because, by being specialised hardware, they could deliver better performance than price-equivalent computers. But now we don't honestly need more performance than we already have, and the benefits of gaming on demand will outweight performance soon.

But we don't live in a reasonable world. We live in a world ruled by marketing. Manufacturers will keep finding new gimmicks to sell consoles for many years, rest assured. There's more and more expensive motion tracking (camera-based now, which takes a lot of CPU to run). Then there's 3D. Then there's things like facial recognition, gesture tracking, etc. Then brainwave controls. And Live and PSN have proven to my satisfaction that consoles can do gaming on demand via internet as well.

Never understood

[Latinhypercube]

I have never understood the need for games platforms like xbox and playstation, to want to make their own consoles. As far as I can tell, consoles are a dead weight, the developing companies spending years developing them and lose money on every console. They have to understand they are selling software NOT hardware. Hardware is best left to cheapo Taiwanese companies and marketplace competition.

Re:Never understood

[realmolo]

Uh, the console makers DO know that they are selling software, not hardware. The whole POINT of making a console (from a money-making perspective) is the software licensing fees charged to 3rd party software publishers/developers. Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo get a few dollars of EVERY game made/sold for their system.

That's why consoles will never die. The money to be made is too good, if you can get your console into a few million homes.

Ubiquitous Computing is the future

[steelvadi]

Vernor Vinge has it right, everyone is going to have a HUD. You could emulate anything the way he describes it.

Unless it is killed by THE industry...

Where's my Tinfoil hat?

Old news rehashed every 10 years

[bkr1_2k]

People have been saying this since PC gaming came about. It was nonsense then, and it's nonsense now. People don't care that they can get the game for their pc when that pc isn't attached to their 60 inch plasma tv. Furthermore, console games make playing with your friends, in the same room, at the same time, much easier. Consoles aren't going anywhere, and pc gaming isn't either.

Re:HTPC gaming at a party

[tepples]

Thanks a lot for pointing out that list. So I guess the HTPC is more like a fourth console than some console fanboys will admit.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Re:WRONG : What are the iPhone and iPad ???

[VGPowerlord]

I don't see why game consoles cannot have application stores that are every bit as successful as the iTunes Store, perhaps games requiring more storage will require different content models,

Question: What is the last console you used?

All the consoles of the current generation, starting with the Xbox 360 in 2005, have app stores. They go by the names Wii Shop Channel (Wii), Xbox Live Marketplace (Xbox 360), PlayStation Store (PS3 and PSP), and DSi Shop (DSi).

More online stuff?

[leety]

I play games to *avoid* interacting with humans. Plus I spent way too much time punching keys trying to get Keen4 or any of my point-n-click Sierra games to work, to live without a console.

Re:WRONG : What are the iPhone and iPad ???

[petermgreen]

It seems to me that the console vendors are trying (with some success) to have thier cake and eat it. The major games are still sold through traditional retail channels (and are still resellable for the most part* which is what keeps the game shops in buisness) giving them wide exposure. BUT they are selling the extra bits (both dlc and standalone stuff) exclusively through thier own closed distribution systems (avoiding retail markup on them) and those extras cannot be resold.

* Sometimes they include a bit of dlc that can only be used by the inittial purchasor in the box but the core game can still be resold.

Correction: Kojima isn't a founder of Konami

[Anonymous Coward]

Kojima isn't a founder of Konami. He's an employee. Konami has been around since he was around 10 years old.

About Fucking Time

[mjwx]

After years and years of people predicting the death of PC games it's nice to see that consoles are finally receiving the same treatment. Welcome console players, someone unimportant has predicted the death of your platform. You're almost real gamers now.

Re:10 types of people,

[mjwx]

Seriously, there are two kinds of spendy gamers out there. There are the non-technical types, who will go out there and buy a console, buy a bunch of games, buy new controllers... They have no desire for a true PC, don't want a desk to put the keyboard and mouse on, just want a little machine in their entertainment center.

Then there are the technical types, who want to upgrade their video card, processor, boot off a SSD... They want to be able to push the edge, and may get as much fun out of tinkering as they do from the gaming.

Then there are the large number of gamers who want the best gaming experience practicable, most of us are willing to buy decent PC hardware but not necessarily the most expensive and can run most modern PC games just fine. We are quite spendy, just not reckless like the other two.

Growing in number is a group I call "last years gamer". This group are older, typically over 30 and are PC gamers. Rather then buying a game when it is released they wait 6, 12 or 24 months before buying a game, that way their gaming PC is stable (driver issues all worked out, drivers are the biggest problem for bleeding edge gamers) and dirt cheap. Games also have dropped in price over this time as well. This requires a modicum of patience to do, which is why this demographic is growing as gamers get older. These people tend have large gaming collections, often at half the cost.

magic alternating stories

[ILuvRamen]

Anyone notice that the stories "console gaming is about to die" and "PC gaming is about to die" alternate on slashdot. It's so regular and odd that it could perhaps be made into some sort of game that could be played on a console or PC perhaps. It could be like virtual whack-a-mole but with only two moles; the opposite news stories. People are always going to play with both, get over it. Every time one drops 5% or something, people don't have to write about how it's about to die.

Uninformed?

[Anonymous Coward]

For a bunch of nerds you guys seem pretty uniformed about what's happening in gaming land. :P
Kojima is refering to cloud services like OnLive taking over in the near future.
This type of service is beneficial to both gamers and publishers.
Gamers have the advantage of availability and community while publishers have the advantage of a single platform to develop for and a lack of piracy.

Other titles in the same genre

[tepples]

I get when people say that we should get illegal copies of games because we should help the developer or because it's leading to more DRM, but objecting to downloading MAME roms? Really?

Some Slashdot users recommend downloading infringing copies of games. I happen not to be one of them. My position is that we should be voting with our feet for other titles in the same genre, not pirate versions. For example, instead of pirating Tetris, play Lockjaw or Nullpomino or Texmaster. Or instead of pirating The Lost Vikings, buy Trine. The key problem with that is that some genres popular on consoles are underrepresented on PC, making it harder for someone who wants to end consoles to find those other titles.

Games: Kojima Predicts the End of the Console

[lsatenstein]

We went from typewriter to computer keyboard. One thing about keyboard advantages is the tactile feedback that is necessary if we touch type. I touchtype at close to 100 words per minute. Therefore I conjecture that a keyboard will always be required. It may come to pass that with sufficient software development, that the voice to text could replace the keyboard that is used for quick data entry. I don't know though, if working on a flat panel with a beep signal for feedback will suffice as a keyboard replacement.

Console = DRM + Graphics Card + Peripherals

[billstewart]

Funny, a lot of people seem to be playing this WoW thing or its predecessors and relatives, even though they run on PCs...

Basically, a console is a DRM platform with a graphics card and various game-related peripherals (button-covered pads, tennis rackets, guitars, dance pads, etc.) Sometimes the graphics card in a console is more cost-effective than the equivalent one in a PC, but the peripherals use relatively straightforward interface technologies even if they don't have USB or DB9 serial ports; there's no reason a DDR dance pad couldn't hook up to a PC. It's really all about the DRM, locking the players and developers into a standardized platform where it's hard for the customers to steal the games and hard for developers to write games without contractual and financial arrangements with the hardware makers that keep the price of games high. Bah.

CmdrTaco Predicts End of Grammar

[YourExperiment]

Slashdot founder and devloper CmdrTaco predicts grammar in summary dying breed. Anticipates full sentences no longer necessary.