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iPad Isn't "Killing" Netbook Sales, According To Paul Thurrott
mantis2009 writes "Paul Thurrott, the prolific technology analyst and Windows expert, reacts strongly to an article highlighted on Slashdot. Thurrott takes numbers from IDC and the Wall Street Journal, indicating that netbook sales have not in any meaningful way been affected by sales of Apple's tablet computer, the iPad. Money quote: '[N]etbooks and sub-12-inch machines will sell 45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013. If I remember the numbers from 2009, they were 10 percent of all PCs, or about 30 million units. Explain again how the iPad will beat that. Please. Even the craziest iPad sales predictions are a small percentage of that.'"
Paul Thurrott would say that.
We should note that Paul here has both a vested interest in dogging on the ipad and a long history of making hyperbolic statements about how the iPad can't or won't succeed. Also, the original graph clearly showed the growth rate changing, a flow variable, not the number of units, the stock. If the growth rate drops off and is replaced by growth in iPads, how in the world is that not a takeover? What manufacturer will net into a market where the rate of growth is much less than it was even 6 months ago.
ipad kills netbook sales through chinese lookalikes and jealous competitors
he who controls the spice controls the universe
Even if he's 100% correct in what he says about the figures, I wish /. would not give this guy a platform to rant on. I've written many a rebuttal to his posts simply because he says things simply to be controversial He's an 'expert' in nothing other than being a total asshat
Didn't they sell a million of them last month? That's about 25% of netbook sales (48million in a year would be about 4 million a month). That doesn't sound like a small fraction to me.
Could we have finally other news than the iPad?
Explain again how you know that they will sell 45.6 million netbooks in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013? Oh right, you're just pulling numbers from your ass. You can't predict future sales of products, especially not netbooks, which prices keep going up to the point of not selling anymore since people will buy regular low-cost, full-sized laptops instead.
Wait a minute, Apple is making a new product called iPad? Why isn't Slashdot covering that at all?
On a serious note, forecasts for 2011 and 2013 neither proves or disproves anything. Summary would have better of quoting some of the numbers from 2009, but I guess that would dampen the trolling/flaming that would ensue.
Carbon based humanoid in training.
I think if the iPad had a competitive price point it might be an interesting battle, one in which the iPad might win... But right now the iPad is priced like a laptop. If you look at the typical Netbook price and the cheapest iPad then we are talking above 100% price increase.
ePC - £199
iPad - £429
"Full" Laptop - £400
However what you might see happen is the iPad gets bundled with 3G mobile services and winds up costing a fair bit less in relative terms... Netbooks have tried to bundle with 3G but I think it is safe to say it has been fairly unsuccessful.
Wouldn't the iPad fall under "sub-12-inch machines"? Wouldn't it then be part of the "45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013"? And though I did bet a bottle of polish vodka on the iPad selling 5 million times this year, now that I know the 1st month numbers, I guess it could well be 7,5 million. Looks like it could take a pretty significant percentage in 2011 ...
But then of course I'm not a prolific analyst and expert.
Netcraft has confirmed that BSD on netbooks is dying...
As a content creator, for me, the Ipad just doesn't cut it. I see it as being targeted for consumers who want an appliance for accessing information and not creating it. For anything more than that, you will still need a device offering the flexibility that traditional computers offer. Examples being graphic applications, music compositions and programming (et al.)
Having said that, I think once the content has been created, using a tablet might be just another interesting way of interacting/interfacing with said content (think live shows using it as a MIDI controller, for instance.)
So let me get this straight, the argument here is that the iPad isnt effecting netbook sales because the projected number of netbooks to be sold in 2011 hasn't been changed in the last month ...
Seriously, someone fucking fire timothy, he hasn't posted anything that wasn't a blatent slashvertisment or flat out obviously wrong in at least 2 years.
Why don't we wait until someone gets some real sales numbers and there has been more than a month before we start talking about how its effecting the market.
I don't think the iPad is going to effect much either, but I don't try to back that up using sales PROJECTIONS made by people who aren't actually doing the selling. The WSJ must be pretty damn smart to predict the future with 0 input to base it on.
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Not to say that there aren't going to be SOME people who decide to buy an iPad over a netbook (just like there are going to be some people who decide to buy a Livescribe smartpen over a netbook) but the graph of prospective "iPad cannibalization" shows that by far the iPad is more likely to "kill" sales of Apple's own notebook/iPod numbers. In any event, the fallacy in all of this killing talk is in assuming that every iPad sale must come at the expense of some other electronic tool that would've been bought. I know many people who are interested in an iPad who would have never bought a netbook in any case. And vice-versa, by the way.
There are two kinds of people: 1) those who start arrays with one and 1) those who start them with zero.
Android tablets are coming out every day. ARM based Netbooks are selling for less than $100.
If you believe people who plan on buying a sub-$200 netbook will really buy a $400 Ipad, you have got
a screw loose.
The utter lack of progress in netbook specs in the past 18 months is due to Microsoft's oem licensing policies for XP and Windows 7 starter. They practically give it away to the netbook manufacturers to muscle linux out but their specs require specific (minimal) display resolution, cpu speed and memory (notice how it is impossible to fine a 4gb netbook from anybody). My 2 year old AspireOne is "okay" but I'd jump for a newer model if they where in any fashion better.
Not necessarily higher quality. Or more powerful. Or better features. But Apple's goods have an air of luxury around them (smells like hipster). And a price tag to match. Sure there are regular folks who will save their pennies and buy an Apple product, but the real market is in the upper class. Which limits them to fraction of the market, admittedly with a higher margin. You're probably paying $100 just for the Apple trademark on an iPad. Virtually nobody is choosing between an iPad and a value priced Linux/Windows netbook. I'd prefer a netbook (even a cheap one), so I can have a decent keyboard. Although I haven't handled an iPad myself, I've seen reviews that were quite negative about the touchscreen keyboard.
Seriously? This guy has been so wrong on apple over the years that I think taking his opinion on apple or anything tech would be like believing exRaider Jamarcus Russell that he was doing well at QB.
seriously slashdot should have higher standards than Thurott
It's either on the beat or off the beat, it's that easy.
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I dropped 300 bucks for my netbook last year on a whim. I had a pretty burly laptop at the time...then the nVidia sli bug kicked in and fried my video cards. I had nothing else and I had another project come up, so I took my netbook in and used it for development (obviously hooked it up to a monitor, mouse, keyboard, etc.). Worked like a charm for me. And I do a lot of .NET development and SQL stuff, but that little Atom processor and the 2GB of RAM was plenty enough for my needs (and actually, I was able to catch a timing bug that I couldn't replicate on a higher end Win7 notebook, but I digress).
See, I can get actual WORK done on a netbook. I can do paperwork, make website edits, do a whole lot of other things without having to lug around (or pay for) a much more expensive high end laptop...and I don't see myself replacing that netbook with a bigger laptop anytime soon unless I'm stuck using higher end systems for a client. If I need to do something really high end, I use my desktop at home or whatever a client dumps on my desk for work purposes. Otherwise, the netbook is all I'd need...the only real reason I had my old laptop was for gaming, and I'm better off doing that on my desktop at home anyway.
The problem that a lot of folks have with understanding why tablets just aren't that much a threat to netbooks is that netbooks and tablets sate two different market segments. Tablets are fun, show-off things that you use to waste time (though just like netbooks, they really suck for gaming). But you can actually get work done on a netbook and a good one will cost you less, too. Sorry, tablet fans, but that's how it is. They may be super cool to you and you think that you paid 500 bucks for a great thing, but you know in your heart that you paid 500 bucks for a goof-off device.
Apple has built a robust and vibrant software ecosystem around mobile devices that has generated more excitement among consumers and developers alike than we've seen in 5 years.
The thing that has got to be eating Microsoft execs up is that even if Microsoft entered the revived consumer tablet space tomorrow, they would be starting years behind.
I've known a lot of microsofties over the years, most of them former; I don't think the Microsoft corporate culture today is capable of delivering successful consumer products in this space.
Generally speaking, affect is a verb and effect is a noun. When you affect something, you produce an effect on it. Even in the passive voice, something would be affected, not effected.
Paul Thurrott knows the world ends in 2012. He only quoted netbook sales for 2011 and 2013.
That's exactly how it's being marketed. Nowhere do I see or have I seen it being marketed at content creators.
Why would you even try to shoehorn your needs into a device that clearly won't do what you want?
Netbook sales were already leveling off. Looking at the sales figures, they have continued their downward growth trend that started months before the iPad was released. I have no idea how this is stretched into an iPad effect.
It' too soon to tell if iPad will crush other products. Since the thing isn't really launched worldwide yet, and the 3G versions were just released and supply is already constrained it's easy to see that the thing is a commercial success. We won't know what demand truly is until it's launched worldwide and supply catches up with it.
How well the Android slates deliver will show the iPad's place in the category it defined, so perhaps by Christmas. I wonder if there will be Moorestown units out by then, and Windows Mobile 7. Probably not with enough scale or buzz to get their peak markets rolling.
What a lot of people seem to be missing is that like the iPod and iPhone the sale doesn't end when you open the box - What His Jobsness has sold you is a store you can carry in your pocket so that you can buy books, music, movies and apps from him any time you so desire. And unlike Best Buy and BlockBuster and Borders, the store never closes - ever. It's right there in your pocket ready to close a deal whenever you are.
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The iPad is best suited to enable the consumption of media (movies, music, web, ebooks, etc) whereas netbooks are most often used as simply small, inexpensive notebooks. Every person I know who owns a netbook uses it for work computing- Office, presentations, e-mail, scientific computing, I even use my old Eee 900 for editing and managing photos when I travel.
Currently the iPad is better suited to consumption.
But that's a software issue... all of the things you mention - presentations, editing documents, email, photo editing - those already work pretty well on an iPad, and in fact photo editing/review that you do on the road can be a lot better done with an iPad unless you are a heavy photoshop user. Over time, we'll see even better software to meet those needs.
I can actually type really fast using the onscreen keypad, but if you were replacing a small travel laptop many people could easily include a small bluetooth keyboard, like the kinds they have made for years now for other mobile devices. You wouldn't need to use it all the time but for more serious editing in a hotel room it might be nicer.
I say this all not to say if the iPad will or will not supplant netbooks, just to note that if you think of it as only a consumption device you are missing out on a lot of what it can do, and do well.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Maybe iPad sales are cutting into netbooks, maybe not. But what makes people think Apple can keep this up?
The MacBook Air looked like the granddaddy of netbooks, it was shiny and hot; and a year or two after its release, its just another expensive, light, and slow laptop for Mac users with too much cash.
The same is likely going to happen with iPads. Apple pushed the thing out the door quickly, but low-cost tablets have been in the pipeline for a couple of years, and you're likely going to see $200-$300 tablets with better specs than the iPad and no software restrictions this year.
Worked like a charm for me. And I do a lot of .NET development and SQL stuff... ....
The problem that a lot of folks have with understanding why tablets just aren't that much a threat to netbooks is that netbooks and tablets sate two different market segments.
And the problem with people that think the iPad lives in a different space is that they do not realize how few people need to do things like .NET development that cannot be done on an iPad.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
and you're likely going to see $200-$300 tablets with better specs
Why then is the Crunchpad (sorry, JooJoo) $500?
Before it was released, it was supposed to be $200 too... I'll believe that price point when I see it.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Why would anyone would quote Paul Thurrott? Why is this on Slashdot? This is like reading press release from Redmond, Washington.
The overlap is for grandma, who needed some kind of web device, and wasn't going to spend much at all on it. Until now, she would have gotten the cheapest laptop possible: a netbook. As of today, her geeky grandson is getting her an iPad. That's where the overlap is.
And the problem with people that think the iPad lives in a different space is that they do not realize how few people need to do things like .NET development that cannot be done on an iPad.
Still, there are fundamental difference in the way the devices are designed.
- the iPad is mainly a device designed with a "consumer" mind set. It's great to have around in the living room to watch video, listen to music, read e-books, read web pages (note the "read" verb) and maybe a few games. In short, the user is just a consumer of available media. For starter it lacks a real decent input device like a real practical keyboard. Not that its bad for its intended usage - it is not. A keyboard is not needed in the above list of usages and if you really need something better than an awful on-screen touch keyboard, you can dock one.
- NetBooks are mainly designed around a "producer" mindset. Although they cost a fraction of a laptop's price, you can use them to do all the above, but also run a word processor, do long chat sessions, type e-mails, be active on on-line forums, etc. it's a device which actually allows to produce content yourself. It's a device which is also suited to do some actual work on it. They have keyboard which, although reduce-sized, are still suitable to type on for a significantly long period of time and with a low enough error rate.
Even if not everyone is a programmer like the parent poster, lots of users can have needs (typing text documents, e-mails, chats, etc.) which a device designed to have on your lap and consume media with just can't fulfil.
Because they are geared toward different usages and target different markets, Netbooks and iPad won't cannibalize each-other.
If anything has to be afraid of iPad, that would be the e-Book readers (Both fulfils the same "media-consumer" niche). But even in that situation each has its own set of advantage: iPad are multi-purpose devices, whereas eBook readers are specialised and optimised thus featuring special custom displays (eInk) and much better battery life. (Just like camera-phones haven't killed the market of entry-level cameras with better lens and bigger sensors)
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So don't worry. Once you have the iPad you'll find a grand selection of stylish attire with pockets that fit it.
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We should note that Paul here has both a vested interest in dogging on the ipad and a long history of making hyperbolic statements about how the iPad can't or won't succeed.
This is in contrast to Steve Jobs who has a long history of making hypocritical statements and calling his products magical.
These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
Show me a netbook that's projected to sell 10 million units and support a media and application infrastructure that will allow it's manufacturer to continually reap income from the device long after sale?
Thought not.
Come Christmas, the iPad will be *the* tech item to buy.
Non impediti ratione cogitationus.
- the iPad is mainly a device designed with a "consumer" mind set.
I totally disagree. It's a large flat touch screen with one button and a large number of input (touch, bluetooth, network) and output (video, network, display) options. It is anything software makes it.
For starter it lacks a real decent input device like a real practical keyboard.
I think you missed the part where I said "I can type very fast on it". Is it better than a physical keyboard? No. But I can type almost as fast due to the larger keys and built-in correction. The keyboard is far from awful, it works really well even for typing longer text.
I can type OK on an iPhone too (thumb typing) but on an iPad I can type almost as fast as a full size keyboard.
For very long typing sessions, someone who couldn't get used to the on-screen keyboard CAN use a very nice keyboard if they must - a bluetooth keyboard works just fine.
People were gushing over a netbook a moth or two back where you could detach the screen and convert a netbook into a touch screen tablet. Well why is it not just as good to have a similar thing where the screen starts out detached?
NetBooks are mainly designed around a "producer" mindset.
And here's the key - only of text, and even that marginally so. By the very nature of the things the screen is not great, the keyboard tiny. And what if you want to draw? There is more than one kind of input.
Netbooks are not designed around a mindset other than "small and cheap", they do not help producers or consumers by design - at least not any further than giving you a computing device that is somewhat compact with good battery life - the same as the iPad.
lots of users can have needs (typing text documents, e-mails, chats, etc.) which a device designed to have on your lap and consume media with just can't fulfil.
Except is can, and is. I know a number of people that use iPads in meetings to take notes, and when traveling to work on documents and presentations. If the device were no good at production, there would be no Keynote or Pages for it, and those work quite well - as does Numbers, the spreadsheet program.
If anything has to be afraid of iPad, that would be the e-Book readers
Being a dedicated, fixed device that can attempt to fill one role better - they have much less to worry about. I worry for the Kindle though because Amazon is trying to branch out what the device can do with the developer SDK, in the end I think it will water down the product and allow comparisons between applications you can run on a Kindle vs. an iPad (or iPod touch).
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
He's also basing his argument on sales three years in the future. Even if there wasn't an iPad to compete, anybody with any experience with the tech industry knows that's a ridiculous statement to make. He even says "will" sell instead of "expected to" or "predicted to". Ooh. Maybe he's psychic?
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Why do people buy laptops when they already own desktops? the answer: portability, portability and portability.
Right, which the iPad excels at even over a netbook.
Different third-party apps, all non-free (and not only in the FSF) and wholly unsupported by the device manufacturer.
I was not aware your netbook manufacturer supported Photoshop, or Office, or any other program you buy to run on Windows. Or even Linux window managers for that matter.
Also, the third party apps, while not free, are very cheap. And some are in fact Free.
And your 'adapter' solutions all fail at the single thing the iPad has for it: portability!
Even adding a few adaptors it's still far more portable. It's like 2oz of weight.
Unlike an iPad, you *can* run applications meant for PCs on a portable device.
But most of them not very well, since they were built for a desktop and you are running them at the lowest end of the scale.
And I guarantee you, every single game that runs slowly on a netbook won't run at all on an iPad,
But any game or application that runs great on an iPad (since after all software that targets an iPad will be optimized to run well) will not run at all on the netbook. These days, the iPad gaming set is larger (especially if you factor in iPhone games, ALL of which run on an iPad and NON of which run on a Netbook).
You're trying to twist "is wholly uncompatible with the software most people want to run" in an advantage of the iPad, and that's simply idiotic
It's only "idiodic" if you ignore the entire application space of the iPhone/iPad. To ignore that, seems, well, idiotic. To use your own phrase, which you apparently don't mind bringing into play for ideas you disagree with.
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since I can't for instance play my vast collection of xvid encoded TV shows
One word: Transcoding.
And as a direct result, your battery life when watching will be far superior, so it's not like there is no benefit.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Get a Lenovo X200 tablet. It opens up to function as a laptop, or you fold over the screen and lock it in place to function as a tablet. Uses a high end Wacom setup on its screen that allows for you to use your fingers if you like for imprecise functions including multi-touch, as well as a pen for precise pointing and pressure levels (the pen is highly sensitive to the amount of pressure applied and programs can make use of this like Photoshop). It's a real PC though, runs a Core 2 Duo or Core i5/i7, has multiple USB ports, wired and wireless Ethernet, options for 3G or WiMax integrated if you wish, DVD drive and so on. It is in every way a modern, powerful computer, that you can use with your fingers or a pen on the screen if you like.
If you want a real tablet PC there's one out there right now and has been for some time. Couple at work have gotten various kinds over the years. This is nothing new. What's more, as I said, they'll act as a laptop with a full keyboard too.
The problem with tablets has not been lack of availability, it has been lack of demand. It really is a shitty interface for using a computer overall, and most people seem to prefer laptops. As such they've been out there, but rather on the sidelines because demand is low. The iPad has simply made it in to a fashion accessory, as people are buying them to be trendy. Same shit as people who buy faded, ripped jeans at Urban Outfitters.
aww, paul, your scarey, eh ?
The Archos 7 looks interesting but is not that much cheaper than a comparable Apple product...
And for just $250, you can have 32GB of onboard storage.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
What hasn't been said loudly enough is that the stupid chart which all these discussions are based on is completely worthless. Under "April 2009" it shows the growth in percent from April 2008 to April 2009. Then under "May 2009" it shows the growth from May 2008 to May 2009, and so on. If the growth changes, then this can have two causes: A change of growth now, or a change of growth earlier.
Example: Sales April 2008 = 100, April 2009 = 500, May 2009 = 600. The chart will show 400% Year Over Year growth in April 2009. What will it show for May 2009? We don't know. It depends on the sales in May 2008. If these sales stayed constant from April 2008, then Year Over Year growth in May 2009 is from 100 to 600 = 500%. If sales doubled from April to May 2008, then May 2009 sales growth was from 200 to 600 = 200% only. In other words, we can look at this chart as much as we want, we don't know _anything_ about actual growth.
What would be needed to discuss this in any sensible way would be a chart with monthly unit sales. Then we could see how sales developed until March 2010, we could make an educated guess what sales should have been in April 2010 and compare with what they actually were, then we could look at estimated iPad sales of one million in April 2010 and compare that number with any deficit in April 2010 netbook sales compared to what we estimated. If netbook sales were down say 300,000 to 700,000 from what we estimated (and that might actually still be growth, if from looking at the chart we concluded that April 2010 sales should be 800,000 higher than March and they were only 100,000 higher then we would be 700,000 short from our estimate), then we might very very tentatively concluded that maybe the iPad is the cause. But we don't have this chart, so it is all completely bogus speculation.
But did this guy really say "[N]etbooks and sub-12-inch machines will sell 45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013."? If he said that then he is a complete idiot. If you told me 2009 sales numbers with that precision then I wouldn't trust you. Nobody knows 2009 sales within 100,000 units. But Thurrott knows 2013 sales with that precision? What an idiot.
With all that said, Apple could very well be selling 10 million iPads world wide this year. If they do, then most of the money spent on iPads will be saved elsewhere. And you just wonder where. Netbooks? That is the most logical conclusion.
Okay, the "correlation is not causation" loons have reached a new plateau of insanity. As far as i can tell there is neither correlation nor causation in the statistical sense involved here. There is an easily verified claim that the netbook market is currently larger than the iPad market, and there is an impossible to prove (except with the passage of time of course) but entirely reasonable belief that that will continue to be the case in the future. So where is the supposed correlation that is being incorrectly claimed to indicate a causation?
This Space Intentionally Left Blank
The tablet is going to kill the netbook. The Ipad is just the first real step in that direction.
Transcode over 150 GB just because one device doesn't support a standard?
Why on earth would you transcode the whole thing?
I transcode on the fly what I want to take with me. You can use ffmpeg you know.
Or...use a device that does.
That's odd, I prefer not to be hampered by whatever initial encoding choice I made, and the magic of transcoding means I can use whatever device works best for watching video.
And people claim using Apple devices lock you in! Apparently your video encoding choice is even worse at lockin.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
All Nokia's high end mobile phones like the N900, N97, etc. also have video out, while also supporting a bluetooth keyboard and mouse, and they are all way smaller than an iPad.
I'm unsure why you'd allocate the luggage or pocket space to an iPad during a business trip, exactly the same space would transport a Mac Book Air.
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"With an iPad, you can not only do what netbooks can do but you also can download applications specifically tuned to the iPad for multitouch and within the processor and gfx chip limits giving you a better gaming experience than you could get with a netbook running games designed for a more powerful PC."
Wow. That's putting the best possible face on saying the iPad is limited to Apple's Application Store.
an ipad isn't a netbook. Why are morons trying to compare the two?
With a 3G connection to your Citrix farm and/or whatever RDP host you want to use (including hosted), you can do almost anything a good desktop can do. The iPad isn't necessarily the compute platform you need - think of it as a handy wireless portable terminal, that plays movies. The screen is still a little small - perhaps with the next processor upgrade they'll come out with an iPad+ with 17" or so at 1920x1080.
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Don't worry. Those millions of netbooks sold with Windows - which ruined the netbook market - will be available soon on Ebay at incredible discount rates. And they run Linux great, just like they always did. As a bonus, the flash storage they use is much cheaper and has much more capacity than when they were first offerred.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
The iPad has only been out about one month.
It seems reasonable enough to me that the iPad, and other tablet devices, will have some impact on netbook sales. But I think the impact will be felt after a few years, not after one month.
It was an old G4 PowerBook and I had been intending to replace it this summer anyway.
That replacement will either be a netbook or an iPad.
I really only need it to do two things: surf the Internet and write papers. If the OS refresh due this fall does everything I need it to do with regards to writing papers, I'm going with the iPad rather than the netbook.
(Yeah, yeah, my geek guard should be revoked. After being in the IT industry since the early nineties, I'm done. I'm now enrolled as a grad student in philosophy. After a couple decades of living, breathing, thinking and dreaming IT, I only want my main machine to do one thing: let me do what interests me and get out of my way. If an iPad can do that, I'm all for it. If it can' t, a netbook can.)
I happen to think that anyone with a halfway functional brain can see that the iPad hasn't been out long enough to be affecting netbooks (or much of anything else) yet. The iPad MIGHT very well have a big impact on netbook sales. Who knows? We have to wait and look at real sales figures. But when it comes to analyzing the question, the last person to trust is Paul Thurrott. To call the man an "expert" on much of anything is giving him far too much credit. He's more of a Redmond sycophant than anything else. He clearly doesn't "get" anything that Apple has been doing for the past few years. Taking Thurrott's opinion about anything Apple-related is like trusting Karl Rove's evaluation of the Democratic Party. If a person is heavily invested in seeing the world in a certain way, he's not really capable of seeing something contrary. Based on Thurrott's track record with Apple, he's not the person anyone should turn to as an expert on this matter, IMO.
Netbooks are experiencing a lull in sales right now for a couple of reasons. For starters, they're not "new" anymore, so a lot of the people who wanted a netbook now have them. iPads are just starting the "new" phase now.
Also, I happen to think that netbooks are about to undergo a bit of a transition. Remember, netbooks weren't originally supposed to be "a very small laptop" -- that only happened after Microsoft got pissed off that Linux machines were actually starting to sell, and they forced the OEM's to lard up the specs until they could (badly) run Windows XP. Netbooks were supposed to be access devices, companion devices. And with the iPad, Apple has just proved what I've been saying all along: that such a device absolutely has a place in the world. So, as the netbook market begins to retool, look for new models with ARM processors, insanely long battery life, Android or similar operating system, and a low price tag. Look for these devices to begin emerging over the next 12 months, and appeal well to people who won't buy an iPad, either because the iPad is too expensive or because they really want something with a keyboard.
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Much nonsense has been committed to text by people comparing the iPad to some other class of device that they know. Then they complain because it doesn't do what their pet netbook / notebook / tablet PC does and use that as proof that the iPad is doomed to fail.
There's plenty of examples of that kind of thinking here, too. The need to fit the iPad into some existing class of device is strong. Enlightenment can be found by simply accepting that the iPad represents a new / different class of device; it's a useful tool and it's very well suited for some tasks. Other tasks are better handled by a notebook / netbook / tablet PC or whatever.
Each will discover the truth in their own way one day. It could be in an airport waiting room - there's all those people sitting around, some are reading a book, some are getting scorched laps from sitting there with their laptop / netbook and surfing the web or reading some email. And then there's those other folks who are watching a movie - or checking email / surfing the web on their iPad. Horses for courses, guys - don't unnecessarily limit your options.
My o' My. What venom I hear from the likes of those Apple Panboys. Did us Apple Fanboys sound like that back in the late 1990s when the whole PC industry was eating our lunch?
Wow!
More and more people are buying Apple products. They weren't sheeple or stupid idiots or people with money to burn and no brains when they weren't buying Apple products, and they aren't that now. These are willy consumers and see nice products at somewhat reasonable prices. Reasonable prices? A JooJoo tablet is the same price as an iPad. The WeTab (formally, the WePad) will be selling in Europe for $600. Remember the Zune? Came out at the same price as an iPod -- and the Zune was physically bigger, heavier and was brown. And, of course, there's the Adamo XPS which is just like the MacBook Air, but costs $500 more.
Looks like when companies build products to take on Apples' products, those products also take on Apple pricing too. You cannot build a 9" touch screen, well made tablet for under $500 and still make money. Even the HP Slate is going to sell for the same price as the iPad when it comes out in the end of July (running WebOS).
I don't know who this Paul is, but netbooks have been in the doldrums for a few months before the iPad, and sales have continued to drop since the iPad came out. There suppose to be 50,000,000 of them netbook suckers? He's an idiot.
The question is how other companies are viewing the iPad. Quite a few have quietly dropped working on up coming models, and instead are working on various tablet computers. Looks like these companies see the writing on the wall -- the netbook is pretty much dead.
And good riddance for netbooks too! Netbooks were money pits for most of these companies. You can't make money selling $300 netbooks. Heck, the Windows 7 license itself was close to $100. (Yes, I know: Linux is the answer. I use Linux too, but Linux based netbooks never sold very well. Linux is a nice kernel, and the GNU utilities are nice, but the Gnome and KDE desktops suck. Non-geeks hated them).
Nope, these companies see the writing on the wall: They're all coming on with tablets. HP's Slate will be coming on at the end of July running WebOS. Android tablets are in the works for Dell and other companies. They're not waiting around for ChromeOS which will be a disaster. Anything that'll run on ChromeOS will run on a iPhone OS or WebOS based tablet. Besides, the trend is people using web-based data in native apps. Look at all the Android and iPhone apps, and how many of them are simply apps that give you the same data you can get from the company's webpage? And, people are PAYING for that instead of using the free webpage. That should tell you something. It's the real reason why Flash is dead. Despite what Adobe thinks, nobody want to run an AIR app when they can run a native app instead.
And, all of these companies will sell their tablets for about $500 -- matching the iPad's price. Why? Because you can make money on a $500 tablet which is something you cannot do with a $300 netbook.
By the way, nothing I mentioned called netbooks worthless or that you were an idiot buying one. You bought them for a good reason and are probably pleased your bought one.
The problem is that netbook computers not profitable to build. And, that's their real downfall.
Not sure what netbook you use, but my Asus 1005PE can play World of Warcraft and Farcry. 720p video is a little out of reach on mine, but other netbooks with ION graphics chips, like the Asus 1201n, can play newer games AND watch 720p video. The price of the 1201n is only 489CND on sale right this very second. The problem with these more powerful netbook is you lose the battery life advantage netbooks are known for. The 1201n for example is only about 5 hours while watching movies. The IPad is most certainly NOT a powerful beast.
Killer app for me on the iPad: Reading free manga online.
It's way better than trying to view manga with a desktop or laptop. I can actually be in bed or on the couch and casually read.
After witnessing two very important classes of users, I can honestly say that the iPad offers what no other platform has done to date.
First, K - 12 users. The iPad is the best learning tool ever invented, bar none. Doubt me, then put one of an iPad in the hands of a 2 year old with spelling software and you'll have a child reading at the age of three.
Second, and this is the big one: Baby Boomers. By now, they all wear reading glasses, want to surf the web, read books, participate in social networking with their children and grand children, look at photos, etc... But, with big fonts, and a simple touch interface. There has literally been nothing to date that can touch it, and it is slowly becoming a revolution in how those with sight impairment can consume media.
We have seen only the tip of the iceberg with this device. And though there will be many, many competitors in this arena, if the past history with the iPhone is any indication, Apple's competitive advantage in UX will prove to be unbeatable in the marketplace.
When it comes to the largest demographic in the history of the planet, and children... I think Apple has nailed the most lucrative markets available.
The numbers look pretty grim for netbooks since the pre-iPad hype that dominated CES, and they get worse after the iPad introduction and worse again after the iPad shipped. But even so, I wasn't really sure that iPad was killing the netbook until Thurrott said it's not.
Thurrott was pro-tablet right up until Apple reinvented the tablet. Now he will be anti-tablet right up until Microsoft has an iPad copy for him to promote.
The guy is paid by Microsoft and Dell and has no credibility.
He whined and whined and whined about iPhone v1 and v2 not having "such a basic feature" as Copy/Paste and multitasking of 3rd party applications. Then when Microsoft announced they were killing Windows Mobile in 2009 and would be back in 2011 with "Windows Phone 7" which would lack both Copy/Paste and multitasking of 3rd party applications, Thurrott cheered them. So, keeping score: not having Copy/Paste in 2007-2008 during your first 2 years in the phone market is just totally inexcusable, while removing Copy/Paste in 2011 in your 10th year in the phone market is just fine, no biggie.
He also said of Steve Jobs' "Thoughts on Flash" that "he can't disagree more" with it. That shows Thurrott knows nothing about mobiles, where there is no FlashPlayer at all, and nothing about the consumer market, where vendor neutral standardized audio video is not just the norm, it's a religion.
To the actual issue of tablet versus netbook: it's clear that perceptions of the tablet and netbook have been changed, same as iPhone versus the smartphones of 2007. A month ago, HP released an HP Slate teaser video, then just recently they bought Palm and we hear the Slate has been canceled because Windows 7 is apparently not a mobile OS. (You don't say!?) Compared to a netbook, iPad is half the size, half the weight, double the battery life, and 1000 times sexier. It makes a netbook look like a pocket protector. Half the size and weight and double the battery life ... that just can't be argued with. Even with a small Bluetooth keyboard added, iPad is still much more mobile than a netbook. And you can use a 100% scale Bluetooth keyboard and get real typing done.
The netbook had fatal flaws anyway. If you're going to have a keyboard, make it 100% scale. Every PC maker CEO spoke out against netbooks, even when they were most popular. So it would actually be surprising if we could have this Year Of The Tablet in 2010 and not see the netbook be very much affected. Walt Mossberg said iPad replaced 80% of his notebook use in the first week, so where does that leave a netbook? He's a techie. For consumers it is even worse, they are finding iPad replaces 95% of their Mac/PC use.
The iPad is a fashion toy, overpriced piece of shit for yuppies who like to do email by touchscreen. Get over it.
Notebook sales bite netbook sales. iPad sales bite iPod sales. Nothing to see here.
I'm not a big Apple fan, but I think for the mainstream user a tablet is a pretty viable alternative to a Windows/Linux netbook.
For starters, it's lighter and thinner, it is well suited towards web browsing (whether or not it has flash) and Email, which is what the majority of users would want to use. Netbooks are cool, cute little devices, but the keyboard can be cumbersome and get in the way, some have touchscreens (like mine), but Windows XP/Vista/7 are shit as far as touch is concerned. Don't take my word for it, take HP's they've had enough of Windows 7 and are moving to WebOS instead, which is awesome.
For me, this last bit is the kicker, with Microsoft lagging behind in the smartphone market, and now the tablet market... it's only a matter of time before these alternative OSs make their way to the desktop.
s/the prolific technology analyst and Windows expert/windows shill/
...its that CPU power and features haven't really evolved or changed in an y meaningful way in the last 4 years or so. My HTPC bought as a closeout 4yrs ago is still near top end in stats. Why? Dual core and Quad core CPU's are nice and all, but is common software really being written to take advantage if it? Does it really change the computing experience for the average user? Does Flash jump higher and run faster on anything? We are ta the point where all manufacturers can do is is cram more of the same in the box, and maybe change the color of the box, of and a bigger screen.
Netbooks pack just as much computing power as high end laptops 3yrs ago, and guess what, they STILL get the job done. We shouldn't be arguing about how weak netbooks are, or how they have limited utility. Umm, no they don't. We just keep buying poorly written, buggy software that works reasonably well with an extra 2Gigs of memory. Are we really doing anything today that couldn't be done 4 years ago? But, lets keep drinking, the Purple Drank.
I don't own an iPad, but you know what, Apple actually brought a product with something different to the market. Good for them, Will it make a splash, we will see. The Summer sales spike, then the back to school spike, then the Xmas spike will tell the tale.
iPads here are about 700-900 euro (depending on size, including ~75 import tax and shipping from the US), compared to 100-200 euro for netbooks. Are iPads that much cheaper in the states, or are the prices for netbooks just really high?
Or could it be, perhaps, that comparing these two is like comparing an office machine with a gaming machine?
Remote desktop is only one of the things it can do. It has other uses. If those aren't useful to you in a work environment it's not a tool for you. Personally at work I have no use for a cylinder hone. That doesn't mean a cylinder hone is a toy. You calling iPad a toy is not going to stop others from putting it to work for them. It's a new tool and we're still finding out what work it applies to but it seems to be a good number of uses for some.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
The thing that killed netbooks was when manufactorer stopped making them, and instead insist on selling regular laptops as "netbooks". Anything from 10" and up are not netbooks, they are small laptops. I have an eeepc 901, and I'd love to upgrade with one that has N450/470 CPU, but as it is, this means I have to buy a 10.1" laptop instead - no longer a netbook. Give me an updated 8.9" EeePC 90X with N470 and I'll buy it, even if it cost twice as much as my current 901.
Interestingly the article he is reacting to did not say "takeover" it said impact. He can claim there is no impact, but he would be wrong. The other numbers show at least a correlation of an impact. His own numbers shown an impact. I suppose if you lie about what the person you are responding to said it is easier to prove them wrong.
I have them both - an ipad and two netbooks. netbooks are cool in concept but worthless in practice. the screen is too small and the keyboard and trackpad are also too small. It doesn't matter what it can do... it does everything painfully.
My netbooks found homes being hooked to TV sets, where I don't have to suffer that 600 pixel vertical resolution. So much for portability.
The ipad is what you use when your body is tired of sitting in a chair and you want to relax and surf at the same time.
If people have 500 bucks to spend on the Ipad, this is definitely a sign that the recession is over. Thank you Ipad, for serving as our bellwether. No matter what its features are, the interface is too clumsy to be useful for much, other than flipping through photos. Lets face it, mouse and keyboard are far superior to touchscreen, for almost any task. Plus there is a great advantage to a traditional laptop that folds shut, in that the screen is protected quite wonderfully in transit. The average Ipad is going to get scratched up rather quickly, much like the Ipods do, which will ruin watching movies on them for a lot of people. If people are willing to actually spend money on something that is way less user friendly than a laptop, but also will look like a scratched up piece of junk in a month's time, the economy is doing just fine.
Always remember the chickens that have gone before