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WP7 Predicted To Beat iPhone By 2015
WrongSizeGlass writes "InformationWeek is reporting that Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple's iPhone by 2015 according to IDC. IDC predicts 2015 will bring: Android 45.4%, WP7 & WinMobile 20.9%, iOS 15.3%, RIM 13.7%, Symbian 0.2%, and 'Others' 4.6%. These numbers would move WP7 into 2nd place and leave iOS in 3rd place with a slightly smaller piece of the smart phone pie than they current hold (15.7%). The author of the InformationWeek story isn't buying IDC's forecast, because of WP7's anemic sales to date and Microsoft's recent stumbles with its first two updates. I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8."
http://xkcd.com/605/
no.
"The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."
Not so fast...the author seems to base WP7's success on the success of Nokia, which is uncertain at best.
Yes, Nokia sells more cellphones than most other cellphone manufacturers COMBINED...however, a large majority of those sales are S40 devices, simple dumbphones that can't do much more than call and receive texts, but have a week plus battery life.
Nokia has, since mid-February, doubled-back on their future strategy. First, it was WP7 ONLY...then they were going to continue to release Symbian and Meego, now, Symbian is dead as of 2010.
It sounds to me like Nokia has no clue what they are going to do. At best, their explanation for the smartphone market has been murky; at worst, they still haven't addressed how they are going to make up the marketshare currently held by 600 million S40 dumbphones. Mostly people who do not want a dataplan or a smartphone. WP7 will not sweep into the low-end and take that market share. It's like Ford giving up making Fords, and deciding that they will only make high-end Lincolns to suit everyone.
I said it before, Samsung seems to have figured this out. They will use Bada on the low end, and Android on the high end. In this case, I would take a lot away from WP7's percentage, and bump up the "Others" category significantly.
The World is Yours.
I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8.
I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.
#DeleteChrome
Am I the only one who thought this was an odd comparison?
As the summary mentions, 4 years is a long time range to be making such predictions. Who knows if there'll be a killer platform to come out or if Windows will scrap WP7 altogether?
Going to need a confirmation from Netcraft before I believe that iOS is dying.
Then in the year 2016, this forecaster will return to Earth from whatever planet he is in, once what he is smoking wears off.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
There's no reason to think it will overtake iOS at this point, in fact it's not doing all that well. Conversely - it's amusing people think MS has no chance in the smartphone market now (same way people mocked Kinect not too long ago). Never count someone with that much money out completely.
That would explain this story!
What is he smoking in his pipe . . . ?
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
Let me tell you my prediction. Let me just grab my 10-sided dice, roll the numbers a bit and get back to you.
I'm sure I'd get results which are just as precise.
"I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8."
I wonder if iOS 4 will still be Apple's smartphone OS or if Android 3.x will still be Google's smartphone OS in 2012.
Seriously, all operating systems go through major revisions. Microsoft just seems to make it more prominent in their branding.
How can they possibly even attempt to make this sort of prediction and be taken seriously? In four years time there may be a totally new, undreamt of technology that has made mobile phones redundant. There may be a new vendor on the market who has come from nowhere with a proper Linux-based O/S and taken over everything. Who knows?
Is it a seriously slow news day today or something? It's not April 1st for another 48 1/2 hours, so they're not playing us for April Fools.
I especially like the line of "I love how even the "Others" category has 23 times more users than Symbian, which has been the dominant smartphone platform for the better part of a decade.". WTF else does he expect, as reported here - http://news.slashdot.org/story/11/03/28/0256210/Nokia---No-More-Symbian-Phones-After-2012 - if Windows phones are the replacement for Symbian, then it's fairly obvious Symbian will be no more - hands up if you keep a mobile for 4 years?
They can beat iphone 4 in year 2015
This is a ridiculous speculation by IDC. From this article:
IDC also hugely underestimated Android growth (again), predicting 24.6 percent market share by 2014. But Android already exceeded the projection in 2010 -- just months after IDC's forecast.
Seems like they're pulling numbers out of a hat to me.
Better known as 318230.
Word Perfect 7 came out in 1996. So by 2015, that'll mean it only have taken 19 years to overtake iPhone! Though, I don't really know how one is related to the other and I'm pretty sure they didn't foresee an "iPhone" even existing, as early as 1996.
..you'll get predictions for everything. Some of them will even be *correct* predictions...
Microsoft have a lot of cash reserves. If they spend it on buying companies like nokia, then yes, windows mobile will have a large part of the market on "I just want to make a call" phones.
They'd have been better off buying RIM
After all, everyone knows the world ends in 2012!
So it's going to follow the same path Zune took in overtaking iPod players?
Yea, Windows Phones will overtake iOS and Android just like Zune killed the iPod and the original PCs sold like hot cakes... Sell your IDC stock while you're at it.
... if you're talking about the number of models of handset, and not about number of users
I mod down anyone who says "I will be modded down for this", regardless of the rest of their comment
Just got my update today. Nothing can beat getting Xbox Cheevos on your phone.
Win7 phonez....
My first Journal Entry ever, in 8 years! http://slashdot.org/journal/365947/aphelion-scifi-fantasy-horror-poetry-webzine
Microsoft has one major advantage that they have used again and again. It's not their money, their technology but rather last mover advantage. They know how make bundles of technology introduced while other players have dominate market shares and take away those shares. They did it search, in word processing, spreadsheets, servers and they are working their way on gaming systems and others.
They have the time and the money to get it right and the money to get out there. People are only locked into phones for a few years and that gives MS and their partners plenty of time to improve and extend their offering.
Android will always suffer (in a VERY GOOD way) from being open source.. but not all will see that as a virtual. Apple is a closed garden. MS will walk the middle path more open that Apple but not as "open" as Android. They will integrate completely with all their services from Hotmail to office. This type of integration they have thought about and planned for years and they will make small marginal improvements until they win.
That's assuming it do Zune.. or any of the other products they have canceled along the way. Can you say, "Bob."
http://www.hawknest.com/
...if the IDC "study" takes into account the effect of the AT&T - T-Mobile merger. Because if that occurs and there isn't a deluge of customers from T-Mobile to Sprint as a result, then the iPhone would be available for ... well, basically everyone except for Sprint customers in the USA, and you'd have to think that could only help the iPhone's market share.
The assumption that the author seems to have made is that most phones will be smart phone in three years.
If that holds true, and Nokia holds on to a 20% market share the "study" seems like reasonable speculation.
Of course the assumption has a lot of issues, but it is not really assuming that iOS loses any share in the mobile phone industry, just that the mobile phone industry and smart phone industry will merge. If that happens, and that is a big IF, and Android is at over 40% other Linux phones at 20%, and Windows phone at 20% and iOS having half of the high end at 10% of the over all market seems like not too crazy of speculation. But, I wouldn't call that a win for Microsoft.
Work bio at MMWD
We are predicting four years out on a category of product that scarcely existed four years ago? And we say a product that has been out for six months should be in second place in four years? I am confident that the predictions are right, after all that website gives us three significant digits saying Windows 7 will have 20.9% of the market-share.
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here.
All that is is missing is the Microsoft PR logo, like the one Gartner forgot to remove from one of their "reports" that MS paid for.
From their "estimates" it appears that the Win Phone 7 will have to rise in marketshare as fast as the Symbian will drop. Not much chance of that happening since the WinP7 market share is reported on March 8th as "taking a dive": http://vista.blorge.com/2011/03/08/microsofts-windows-phone-7-market-share-takes-a-dive/
Running with Linux for over 20 years!
the year 2015 will be The Year of the ZUNE!
I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
My prediction (which is only slightly less speculative) is that Microsoft will buy RIM (maker of Blackberry) to keep themselves in the mobile phone game.
Democracy Now! - your daily, uncensored, corporate-free
They can't abandon WP7 THAT quickly, that would thoroughly trash the 18 month (random guess) dev cycle for win phones. I'd give them abandoning it in 2014 after a couple of crazed christmas attempts - but that still makes the article a joke.
Oh wait - that's the point - the article is not supposed to be right, it's supposed to be a recursive mindshare generator. "Look, WinPhone7 is good because some article says so!".
My first Journal Entry ever, in 8 years! http://slashdot.org/journal/365947/aphelion-scifi-fantasy-horror-poetry-webzine
Because InformationWeek is the pinnacle of accurate information.
This just in: Steve Jobs leaves Apple to replace Ballmer as CEO of Microsoft.
There, that should help MS' market share a little.
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the author.
Mod grandparent down - that's goatse.
On that day, Satan will be skating to work.
Everyone knows the world is going to end in 2012.
Also, see this.
I don't always use unix-like operating systems; but when I do, I prefer FreeBSD.
All they did was move the current world-wide market share of Symbian over to WP7. This means they are making two assumptions:
1) Nokia will maintain its current smartphone market share in spite of WP7
2) Nobody else will provide WP7 on their phones. Or if they do, new adopters will cancel out market share losses by Nokia
The world will end in Dec 21, 2012
Need we ask what the pundits predicted for the iphone looking 4 years out this early in it's life? Sure seems to me that in the technology arena that 4 years is WAY too early to make big predictions, heck in 4 years MS could be bankrupt and Apple could have been split up over antitrust issues.
Oh well, anything to fill the pages in between the ads of you magazine...
Lets break it down a bit
Im pretty sure I can go find a kid in grade school who can show you that Android > Windows Phone > iOS. Do we really need these predictions every other week?
That link has now been altered to goatsex. Do NOT click! Mod Parent Down
Am I the only one that noticed that they're both 2nd-rate next to the 45% android prediction?
I don't pay a lot of attention to IDC's forecasts. In mid 2010 IDC gave an authoritative forecast of 7.6M tablets sold worldwide for 2010. http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22345010 They completely missed that. Why should they be any more accurate on the Windows phone (or anything else for that matter?)
Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But then I repeat myself. -- Mark Twain
Yes, WP7 AND WinMobile at 20%... including 0.5% WP7 and 19.5% WinMobile.
They abandon Kin six weeks after launch.
Running with Linux for over 20 years!
Everyone knows that 2015 is already earmarked as the year of the Linux Desktop!
Posts, MyBio or Sig, may contain satire, sarcasm, bolded nouns be sardonic or even witty & be Church of SD
Nah,
I think it's on the Zune track.
Just enough to be able to say random things for three years and annoy Paul Thurrott.
My first Journal Entry ever, in 8 years! http://slashdot.org/journal/365947/aphelion-scifi-fantasy-horror-poetry-webzine
They're not original. They're not funny. They're not even particularly insightful in any way. Please don't think that they are.
Funny is subjective. Please don't think it isn't.
As soon as Microsoft puts Kinect-like functionality in a phone or tablet, Android, iOS and others will have nothing to counter it. .
WP7 was a great attempt and was very slick and new which briefly made iOS and Android look old news at the time. But it was too little too late into a saturated smartphone market.
Kinect sold ten million in a few months - outselling all ipods iphones and ipads and being extremely impressive for any new technology release. But we're all still so obsessed over shiny smartphones that we're ignoring Microsoft's meteoric sucess with Kinect and failing to talk about the obvious next move from MS. Kinect is, quite frankly, is a real revolutionary change in interfaces. Something which it owns and it's competitors don't. Multi-touch was more an evolutionary gimmick wrapped in masterful marketting hyperbole. It's cute, but touch screens have been around a long time and are stupendously overrated: ultimate your hands are in the way of the display.
This is all if Microsoft actually gets it's shit together of course, something it's competitors have been doing better the last 9-10 years. If it does, it suddenly makes Windows mobile getting more market share entirely plausible.
One things for sure, gaming on smartphones is underwhelming - Apple sure isn't doing it right. Microsoft has proven sucess with gaming.
(Grips his android phone a little tighter)
After logging in slashdot still does not take you back to the page you were on. It's been that way for 20 years.
it only took, what? 1 month? to abandon Kin.
Do you even lift?
These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.
I found a reference where IDC claims that their forecasts are right 70% of the time - without any clear definition of right. In general weather forecasting is about 61%.
Does anybody do actual vs forecast benchmarking for these guys? I know the register had a long running gag about IDC's itanium forecasts http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/02/17/itanic_oracle_idc/page1.html is a good example. Is it because it feels like bullying to roll them over on this?
So, WP7 & WinMobile will have a market share of 20.9% four years ahead. Not 21%, not around 20% or ca. one fifth, not 20.90%. Nope, IDC can accurately predict with an precision of +/- 0.1 percent. Around here you would fail high school with such a claim.
iDoubtIt
At what - checkers??
That would most certainly NOT be funny.
Now, if you were wearing a clown suit...
My sig can beat up your sig.
Maybe MS will have better luck with that.
Most people here are focusing on what this prediction claims (great market share for WP7 in four years), but can anybody explain why they're making this prediction?
I understand that in various industries, long-term projections are a valuable tool for suppliers, investors, and more. But in a business with 6-month product cycles, what's the value in predicting so far out? Who uses this information? How? When you consider that each and every cycle brings uncertain results, there's a huge accumulation of uncertainty when you're predicting what will happen 7 or 8 cycles from now.
I'd love to hear a statistician or researcher's thoughts on this.
Slashdot: come for the pedantry, stay for the condescension.
I see no problems with this happening, so long as both are close to irrelevant and Android has the biggest market share. I would call that a likely scenario at this stage.
"Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
Psh. Goatse is sooo beyond tired. I'm surprised the Slashdot trolls haven't picked up on Tubgirl yet.
Yes, and in which universe will that take place, kind Sir?
there won't be a need for WP7 in 2015 since we'll have reached singularity by that time. nice try though.
Yeah. Because Nokia's haven't been making smartphones with a web browser and email for 15 years now... You could install apps too. People were using it for web, email and telnet (maybe ssh too?) way back then!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_9000_Communicator
By 2015 Apple will have something much diferent than iPhone. While WP7 will be a better iPhone.
And I'm going to have sex with Natalie Portman tonight.
There, now that's been predicted, too. Now it's practically guaranteed to happen.
Overrated is a better way to describe xkcd.
I'm not an MS basher, so go ahead and bash me. I love Outlook and use all the features. I wish MS would get its act together and make a really good phone OS. Can any phone out there sync as nicely as an MS based phone to Outlook? They all have programs and adapters, but do any of them simply plug in a sync everything? If they do, then I think MS is going to have a hard time. If MS still owns the sync, I would think that many like me will easily adopt a Win Mobile 8 phone that syncs well and works well. It's possible. I'm using and loving Win7x64. Took them a couple decades, but they can get it.
jsut athnoer menagiensls ltitle psrhae for you to dcoede. Why do we wtsae our tmie dnoig tihs?
This is what happened when Gartner tried to predict the mobile market a few years out: http://www.asymco.com/2010/09/12/
They were so far off that it's hillarious today.
-- "So they told me that using the download page to download something was not something they anticipated." - Bill Gates
The Nokia share of 20.9% in 2011 happens to match the 20.9% attributed to WinPhone7 in 2015.
And just how likely is that, independent of the relative merits of the competition?
What appalls me is that people get PAID to produce this bovine effluent !!
This probably includes the number of WP7 phones relegated to landfills by their manufacturers...
(Hope this doesn't bankrupt you, Nokia...)
Every damn time that MS makes any significant move in a market they do not currently dominate, I am bombarded with people presuming the eventual *domination* of MS (whether they like it or not) to the exclusion of all others. MS has really only done that *twice*, desktop OS and Office suite, and *that's it*. They have not 'done it' in search and servers. They came closer in game consoles, closer than either search or server space, but they have not acheived near-monopoly status anywhere else or even become #1 in any of these markets.
MS is simply not the beast it used to be and/or the competitive landscape is a bit more competent. In OS space the only viable competitor at the time dominance was established was Apple, which MS successfully outmaneuvered in volume by managing to get cloning companies going and getting hardware companies to destroy each others' margins to deliver more volume to MS. My opinion is the office market was lost by simple business and/or technical inadequacies depending on which company you are talking about. Apple has learned how to be price competitive if it *has* to, while at the same time successfully marketing themselves so they don't have to. Google is going much further than MS did in enabling 'cloning' whilst mostly keeping integration with Google services very much intact.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
From a report co-authored by IDC and Gartner:
Pigs to Fly in 2013!
Linux computers, watercooled, photography
The iPhone arrived in 2007. Before that, anything even called a smartphone was so unadvanced it was a different market. This means that for all practical purposes, the entire market that this article is referring to has only EXISTED for under 4 years, and they feel capable of telling us where it will be 4 years from now?
Microsoft is essentially a NON player so far, so the only prediction I feel comfortable making is that Microsoft cash somehow funded these "predictions".
"Microsoft killed my company, I hold a personal grudge. I don't use Microsoft products and neither should you."-JWZ
I don't know anyone who owns a shitty windows phone wtf? This is a stupid ass prediction, does anyone honestly believe this? If anything iphone and RIMM will have bigger market share, microsoft is in decline because they don't have a clue. MS has no hope of competing in this market, and windows phones have ALWAYS sucked.
is about the only way they can shift numbers like that.
Oh yes this is a brilliant plan that will decimate the fandriod army. Don't tell them or they might do it. That would lead to WP7 dominance with Exchange, Windows and Office stronger than ever. We definitely don't want them to think of this foolproof plan. Wink, wink.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
just some PR companies
not so useful comments from them
XD.....2015......we don't even know M$ is still in mobile biz.....
These guys write this garbage just to draw clicks. Not worth commenting further.
Don't bother looking at sales data, just look at Visual Studio 2010 and Expression. Microsoft's development tools are getting really, really good. It's a pretty big learning curve to get a feel for the enormous surface area of the new APIs, but the fact that you can target desktop, web, and mobile with the same framework is very, very powerful. Microsoft could really dominate if they opened up Silverlight more. Doing that might cost them some Windows desktop sales, but probably not many. And it would force Apple into another situation similar to what happened with Adobe, only this time the applications iOS users would miss out on would be far superior to anything they missed out on for lack of Flash.
Even if you're a diehard *nix or Apple type get a buddy with MSDN to hook you up with those tools and check it out. It's very cool.
WordPerfect 7. It was horrible, sure. The beginning of the end really for WP since 6.1 was truly the best. Anyhow I digress, seeing "WP" still makes me think WordPerfect, not Windows Phone. Just like PS2 makes me think of the IBM PS/2 and not Playstation.
They are the ones who said Wii was going to sell less than 15 million units in USA by 2010, while both the PS3 and Xbox 360 would each sell over 20 million units. A pity they missed Wii sales for, say, over 100%. http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/File:IDG_chart.png
I think they left the "O" out of the company initials. it's better phonetically at least.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Microsoft has paid IDC one billion dollars to make that prediction, and also promised that it would pay customers one billion dollars to buy their phones.
It's spring time, and my prediction, like last year, is the Mariners will win the world series. Don't make it so. Never gets on the front of slashdot.
WP7 will beat the iphone. WP7 will sell way less then the iphone, which will make it the winner of the crappiest phone OS ever.
Be seeing you...
no, no, no. You have no sense of humor. It would be funnier if the mother was in the clown suit.
Thanks for a bunch of shock sites.
Strangely none of these really shock me even though I didn't see any but goatse.
Tubgirl seems interesting, I probably try it for a while.
Also I know that there is the 2 girls one cup, I didn't yet see that video, but I know what it about.
I though about using it, but I think that tricking someone to watch a video isn't that easy
Did you know that record sells have gone up 400% since the year ending 1976? If these trends continue ....... ayyyy!
The thing is, if you could use a phone edition of Word to (most of) your document creation work, the question arises: what need is there for the bloated desktop version? And what exactly is it that a mini Word will be able to do that a pared-down OpenOffice or Abiword won't? I'm assuming you won't be creating multi-column books with table of contents, indexes, and hanging indents, etc. on your phone.
I'm not a lawyer, but I play one on the Internet. Blog
YMBGFAP.
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
So, they're expecting Android to have a 45.4% market share in 2015. Not 45.3, not 45.5. That means that they think that their predictions have a relative error of less than 0.3% over a period of 4 years. OR, it means that they are a market research company that doesn't employ anyone who ever took a statistics 101 course.
Oh, they know all right. They're getting their synergies leveraged by Microsoft. Over and over again. For money.
If you mod me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.
Come on guys, we know this is a good prediction because the Microsoft Music Players followed the same trajectory. Out of no where to a stunning success.
Libya scientific output will overtake US by 2015. I predict, by 2015 share of scientific papers published by country will be: China 17% Libya 15.7%% US 15% UK 5% But that will happen only if Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple's iPhone by 2015.
We can all play. Can you to better than IDC? I'll start.
Global smartphone OS share of sales (not installed base) for calendar year 2015:
Nokia will be in receivership having never shipped a single Windows Phone at retail. They will sue Microsoft, but the court will hold them to the clause in the contract that says if they go bankrupt Microsoft gets all their cellphone intellectual property. Steve Ballmer greets the sad news of his partner's demise gracefully: "It's a contract. You should read it before you sign it."
Intermediate events:
June, 2011: At the launch of Angry Birds for Windows Phone 7 Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer appears in a green pig costume and facepaint to be pelted by Angry Birds plush toys for a press event. Rovio CEO Mikael Hed is heard cackling and gasping for breath as he's carried to his private jet, which was formerly Steve Ballmer's Gulfstream V.
In a joint press conference in August 2011 Larry Page and Tim Cook announce that between Apple and Google they are now shipping one million phones per day. The delivery is a bit awkward given the fierce competition, but the two give a convincing argument for fierce competition driving rapid progress.
March 2012: Apple, Inc. becomes the world's largest public corporation by market capitalization, surpassing Exxon Corp. They trade places back and forth for a few weeks until an Exxon tanker runs aground in the mediterranean, when Apple takes the lead for good.
December, 2012. Apple opens an eBay store, directly selling their products for whatever the market will bear. Prices for iPads normalize at 150% of suggested retail.
October 2013, another Microsoft Office refresh is released. The most widely read review begins: "All the same features, but they moved the buttons and changed the file formats again!" On launch day over seven billion specially targeted versions of malware plugins are available, so Microsoft includes a malware sorting interface that allows users to see how their documents are being stolen, and by whom - but it's unreliable and exposes some additional compromise interfaces and so is deprecated immediately.
At RTM in November 2013 Windows 8 for ARM and Intel officially named Windows# is widely panned. The usually verbose Anandtech review consists solely of the text "Breaks app compatibility." Mary Jo Foley just displays the Twitter fail whale without further comment. Others are less kind. HP announces that they're surrendering maintenance of Windows drivers for their vast armada of PCs, laptops, servers and printers to Microsoft as "not worth the trouble - let them deal with it." Dell and Acer go the other route, fully embracing the new features and benefits with multibillion dollar cobranded advertising campaigns. The ARM x86 emulator VM in the product will induce Intel to sue Microsoft for theft of intellectual property the following day, with successful petition to the ITC for an injunction against the products.
December, 2013 Microsoft announces their "Hardphone," for Christmas. Supposedly made from a "recycled" depleted Uranium frame and completely indestructible. FCC testing reveals that the Uranium it's made of, refined from Fukushima Corium, is not fully depleted and the product is banned in 135 nations as fatally toxic.
In January 2014 in Helsinki, one Sven Olafson becomes the first recorded death from exposure in an iPad queue, having lined up several months before the anticipated release of iPad 5. In consideration his family will receive a pre-release version and Apple will move the release date for subsequent versions to August. In its press release Apple states "We don't know what we can do here. We've enlisted all the available manpower of Southeast Asia, and we still can't meet demand for our products." Pundits prop
Help stamp out iliturcy.
The important analysis is Android dominating the market, and Symbian sinking. But really, that's easy to guess, even Nokia has announced they're stopping Symbian around 2012!
IOS share at 15.7 going down to 15.3 in 2015. that's too many digits to forecast the market in 4 years. It could just as well be at 10% or 20%.
And if Apple introduces an "iphone Nano" in the mean time, then the numbers could be totally different.
The same ppl that predicted in 98 that Linux would NEVER amount to anything in the server space against Windows. My prediction is that MS was paid again by MS.
early april fools!
How many more stories are we going to see where the publisher,author, who ever is being paid to help push this BS to the masses.
If anyone has seen the iPhone and what it is capable of , they would know that by iPhone5, the iphone will outnumber all others 4 to 1, simply because they are coming out with some HDMI connector to view what you see on your iphone unto your tv, just that alone replaces dvd players, etc....imagine that, netflix to your iphone and unto your tv, just that alone is worth a mint, never mind all the other bells and whistles they are planning.
The only down side i see to iphone is the lack of backup , in a way where apple could offer a service where you pay to backup your phone to a apple server location, then if you lose your iphone or want to restore a backup point, the phone comes back exactly as it was at the time of that restore point....only draw back to that is it would need to be encrypted to secure that data you have.
1. Let A = current hot technology
2. Let B = new upcoming technology
3. Let X = random number less than 5
4. Write headline "B will overtake A in X years"
5. Split article into multiple pages
6.
7. Profit!
Coder's Stone: The programming language quick ref for iPad
There will still be a few of those things floating around out there, and there _might_ be more active WP7 handsets than active iPhone 1's. Maybe. Of course, the number of both will be dwarfed by the number of active iPhone X's.
Let's look at the market leaders (Windows on the desktops of the past (present?), Symbian on the phones of the past/present, and Android on the phones of the present/future. Why are the market leaders, what they are?
It's very easy to get through life now without ever seeing a Windows machine, but try to think back to when you used to see them -- or maybe you're in a situation where you still do. Where did Windows come from, how did people end up running that? How is the general public (I'm not talking about you, developers) ending up with Android phones?
You still don't get it? Ok, how about this: why do almost all iPhone users run iOS?
It's all about preloads. Joe Customer buys based on price and "bullet point features" of the total package (hardware or applications), and also a little bit of brand loyalty. He's generally not thinking too hard about what OS he'd like his phone to run.
Microsoft has shown in the past that they were very capable of getting hardware manufacturers to preload their OS; if it weren't for that, they probably wouldn't even be around today. And the Nokia deal clearly shows they intend to at least try that strategy again.
Who in 1986 or 1991 (or even 1996!!), from only looking at the products' virtues, and compared to its competitors, would have guessed Microsoft would still be in business the next year? Nobody. And yet, Microsoft's OS was obviously not destined to immediately die, and I don't mean that as a statement of hindsight. If you want to predict the future, quit worrying about whether iOS or Android or WP7 is "better" by human standards, and look at which is "better" by natural selection standards.
Saying Microsoft will fade out because their products generally suck, is like saying cockroaches are about to go extinct because they're icky.
Microsoft's strengths are in getting computer manufacturers to preload their software, and in creating network effects so that people who use their software end up "punishing" people who don't (e.g. "here, I'll just email you this proprietary-format document..."). This is what you need to watch out for. I don't yet see how they plan to network-effect their way to victory (is it silverlight?), but the Nokia move speaks for itself. When it comes to these kinds of moves, the company we're talking about is a jaw-droppingly-awesome history-making world leader who has made pretty much everyone their bitch at some time or another. Saying Microsoft can't manipulate the market is like saying Stalin can't muster troops.
When you look at it this way, WP7 passing iOS is a reasonably sane prediction. It all depends on the deals Microsoft makes, not WP7 itself. All those same people who accepted a Windows desktop will accept a Windows phone. Everything that you consider to be a strength of iOS is largely irrelevant to them, because iOS only comes preloaded on one particular phone, out of the dozens on the market.
And, for your next report, cows can fly, too.
Wishful Thinking. Windoze is dead.
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This is my apple will win:
When you buy an Apple phone, what do you get? An Apple phone
When you buy an Samsung Galaxy from AT&T, what do you get? AT&T apps that you can't remove. AT&T apps that start themselves up at random times without you asking... or being asked.... or being notified in any way! AT&T apps that suck your battery life and cause your phone to use all of it's charge in 10 hours unless you start the special kill application (not installed by default, paid for by in-app advertisements) that allows you to kill those stupid applications but which require you to run it every couple of hours! I'm ready to take my damn phone to the gun range and get an Iphone, but I have to pay full price for it.
I'm told that I can jailbreak it and remove those apps, but I keep hearing stories of phones being bricked by the carrier. I'd rather have my stupid razor back than this.
The first iPhone came out 4 years ago.
1. where nokia is strong, developing nations, folks can't afford smartphones
2. windows phone 7 doesn't run on feature phones
You heard it here first. And they will argue (successfully) in court that it can't be separated from the operating system.
Sorry pal, you're in the minority here. Most of us happen to think that posting links to XKCD and quoting the Simpsons is a perfectly valid substitute for a sense of humor!
I went to the Microsoft store in Mission Vejo and the store was empty, tablets on display weren't turned on and the ones that were didn't work. No one asked if I needed anything. I then went down to the Apple store and it was jammed, everything was working - just the opposite from the MS store. If the store is any reflection on where MS is heading, well, they look like the next Radio Shack.
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Running with mac for over 24 years!
I just read the headline and burst out laughing. 2015. Whoopee.
Microsoft needs to get rid of that idiot Ballmer. Until then, they are fscked.
Prediction does not always come true. Seeing is bleaving. We should wait and see, who will come with the most sophisticated phones and software.