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Scientists Who Failed to Warn of Quake Found Guilty of Manslaughter
An anonymous reader notes that the BBC reports "Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L'Aquila. A regional court found them guilty of multiple manslaughter. Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes. The 6.3 magnitude quake devastated the city and killed 309 people." The scientists were first charged more than two years ago.
They were found guilty not primarily for failing to predict the earthquake, but for releasing a statement saying there was probably not going to be one. They are accused of giving people a false sense of security resulting in them not taking necessary precautions.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
The moral is: don't work for (the Italian) Government as a scientist.
Palm readers, Farmer's Almanac, anyone who publishes a book about Nostradamus, etc ...
This is beyond ridiculous. It's just stupid.
Wearing pants should always be optional.
I am imagining a large exodus of seismologists from Italy very shortly....
Courts tend to have a history of rejecting cases that would open the floodgates and bog them down until the end of time. Unless you wanted an inquisition against local news meterologists or something?
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Seismologists investigated the tremors, but concluded that there was no direct indication of a big quake on the horizon.
I predict this case will result in a higher number of scientists lowering the threshold for significance, p is less than .45.
sysadmins and parents of newborns get the same amount of sleep.
1) Italian scientists stop making predictions. 2) World opinion finds Italian courts guilty of gross ignorance and incompetence.
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If there's a hurricane right off the coast and you tell people there's NO CHANCE it's coming ashore, and it does, then yes.
the third funiest legal system (after U$A and UK)...
If falsely re-assuring people that a disaster won't happen is actionable, then a lot of politicians and government employees are in big trouble.
On top of that, did they establish that the scientists did not believe their own statements?
Now, at least in Italy, you can expect any expert of any hard (or impossible) to predict field to start spouting worst case scenarios for every question just to avoid liability.
Real dumb move Italy. Just because you wanted a scapegoat, you've screwed yourself over for real issues.
The government asked for their assessment, and they gave the best prediction they could given the data they had. Nearly every other seismologist in the world would have given the same assessment. They are being sentenced to prison because they did not predict the quake, pure and simple. The lesson here is that if the Italian government ever asks your assessment on anything, the only valid response is "fuck off and die".
Quick google result here
See? Now you got me karmawhoring!
*ticks 'Post Anonymously'*
Where does it start and end?
As a professional engineer, accountability starts the moment you have a license number in your state.
Any opinion you give on any project makes you liable.
The problem is that too many people are giving opinions on subjects that affect other people's lives and have zero accountability. this trial is a precursor to what may eventually become the norm.
Picture these so-called experts on TV talking about this and that and if they are found wrong and someone was affected by it, then they can be held accountable.
The same will be applied to lawyers and politicians and before you know it, people will be better off if we hold people with some sort of power (over other people) accountable.
Here's a link for those who actually want to RTFA: Italian scientists guilty of manslaughter in 2009 earthquake
Let me guess, this case was prosecuted by Giuliano Mignini, who argued that the defendants must have belonged to a dangerous satanic cult?
How will this ruling affect earthquake predictions from this point on?
"Scientists predicted that sometime this week a massive earthquake will cause all of Italy to break off and fall into the ocean, killing everyone. This marks the 27th week in a row that scientists have made that prediction. When asked about the failure of the previous 26 predictions to come true a lead scientist replied 'It's always possible we're in error and the earthquake might be a little smaller, and might not kill everyone, and possibly might not happen at all. But better safe than sorry. We're sticking with our prediction, so don't say we didn't warn you.'"
This Space Intentionally Left Blank
You can now be tried for NOT yelling FIRE in a crowded theater.
s/[stupid comments]/[intelligent discourse]/gi
While I agree with many of the commenters that this is a bad decision that sets a bad precident, let's make something good come from it and now apply it to bankers and economists with respect to the ongoing banking crisis...
Either we'll get some of them in jail, or (more likely) the laws will be changed quickly.
predicting earthquakes doesn't exist anywhere in the world of science anywhere in the world to any degree
if the italian court system is more interested in "somebody has to pay!" than commonsense, then this doesn't say much for italian justice
shame on you italy. reverse it. overrule it
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
IIRC, there was a woman who sued a local TV station and/or weatherman for an incorrect forecast and (I think) her resulting illness doe to being dressed improperly based on his forecast. It was a few years ago (maybe as much as 10-15). A quick google didn't bring it up - though apparently sexual harassment and discrimination is rampant in broadcast meteorology. She did not prevail in her suit.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
Some weather services offer weather insurance. Elsewhere, they shouldn't be relied on.
Weather insurance is big in construction or weddings.
Way to go, Italy, for making scientists even more reluctant to speak publicly about their work. As a researcher, it gives me pause to think that some off-hand remark could land me in jail for years if I somehow instil a false sense of security in my listeners. I'm sure these scientists made a (responsible) claim to the effect of "there is no justifiable reason for alarm" in response to the tremors that preceded the L'Aquila quake. Now we can't even say that, unless we want to risk jail time. We'll have to talk like elected officials cornered in a scandal: "We can neither confirm nor deny that the results of our study is justification for alarm."
Well, these are the same Italian courts who decided there's enough evidence to support the idea that cell phones cause brain tumors despite the fact there's insufficient scientific evidence that's reliable enough to say that.
Which makes one wonder how much actual hard evidence they require, and how much they think about the effects of their rulings.
Unless the ruling is getting garbled as it passes through various sources, every scientist in Italy is going to have to start couching everything in such a way as to give themselves a wide latitude for interpretation.
There may or may not be an earthquake, it may or may not be catastrophic, it could happen any time between now and some other time -- when the ground starts shaking, you'll know. For now assume death is imminent, but don't panic.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
For not enforcing building codes that could withstand a 6.3 quake, or for failing to make a law to prevent the collapse of the buildings in an obviously seismically active region.
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
A large and devastating earthquake is imminent somewhere on earth 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
Jail them quirky weathermen also! 100% accuracy or death!
Table-ized A.I.
I remember back in the day, a guy predicted an earthquake . There was a lot of press and stress and worry. It didn't happen.
If it *had* happened, this guy would've been a hero (and perhaps not died of a heart attack the next year after being ridiculed by the media ).
There should be a standards group who outlines guidelines for earthquake warnings (if that really were possible), rather than a crackpot scientist here or there releasing reports to the wild via unfiltered channels whether it be an affirmation of an earthquake or not.
I'll go one better, POLITICIANS! They make a promise on the campaign trail and break it, right to prison.
Forget about weathermen, I'm just waiting to sue the Mayan-apocalypse-deniers when that prediction comes true. Oh wait...
We in the USA feel a bit better now that there is another "developed" nation that is more fscked-up regarding science than the USA.
Table-ized A.I.
They need to follow the ancient Chinese and bring back "The Mandate of Heaven"!
Back in the 'good old days', the emperor was blamed for disasters and would be overthrown since heaven has withdrawn its support. The conviction makes about as much sense, but if you want to see this silliness stop, impose more silliness. :)
They should also blame Astronomers if there's a meteor strike and weathermen if someone gets a sunburn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_of_Heaven
Don't anthropomorphize computers, they don't like it.
You can see a hurricane and tell what direction it's heading (roughly). It's fairly easy for a decent meteorologist to predict this stuff. Earthquakes are different. Having lots of small quakes, *typically* indicates that a "big one" isn't near (as the small quakes relieve some of the pressure). Unfortunately it looks like this was one of those *atypical* instances. IANAG, but have been living in CA for the past 5 years, so I've learned at least the "common knowledge/wisdom" about Earthquake prone regions.
I fail to see how anything these scapegoats said would change the survival rate of the earthquake. With or without accurate warnings, people would likely still have died just the same--since they cannot predict the exact moment an earthquake will strike, it's reasonable to assume some people would be caught in the wrong place at the wrong time--and fatally so, regardless.
How much different did they expect the people to behave had "adequate" warning been provided? Did they expect everyone to evacuate? Sounds just like a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't scenario for these guys.
Ultimately, the *earthquake* is to blame for the fatalities--not the (in)accuracy of the geologist's predictions or warnings.
They should not be held liable for deaths by natural causes. This is truly ludicrous. I hope they win on appeal.
So a "safer" method would be for scientists to dump all their raw data, and their conclusions and predictions on a judge. Let him sift it out, and decide if a warning should be made. Then no one will get "legally" hurt by the process.
Except the Italian people, of course.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
I heard the Italian Court consultant Thomas Jordan head of the Southern Calfornia Earthquake Center talk on this topic. Look at slides 15 & 16 about the difference between prediction and forecasting. The current methodology is to give a probabalistic forecast, like in weather, and not a yes/no prediction. The Italian scientists did not follow current methodology and gave a less useful prediction. The court convicted these scientists of negligence for not being current enough and might have cost some lives. Nearly the entire seismologic community including Dr. Jordan thinks the court decision was wrong.
It hasn't been a good week for science in the Italian courts, has it?
We should color code the system, imminent could be æthreat level orange"
First they came for Galileo.
Then they came for geologists doing their job.
Now they are coming for biologists.
If Italy keeps this up, we're going to hold our next scientific conferences in Spain or Portugal, not Italy.
Actions have consequences.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
When you lie for your bosses, save the evidence to make sure they fall with you, because bosses have no loyalty and they LOVE to send you to face the music.
The "scientists" in question seem to have massaged the figures, they weren't lying, they just weren't telling the absolute truth, someone hinted that someone would be pleased if their report said X, they said X and then Y happened and gosh, their bosses dropped them like the flunkies they were.
Life isn't a movie, if it was, this would have been a disaster movie and the boss would have died in some horrible way just seconds after claiming that what is obviously happening isn't happening.
But in real life, the underling takes the blame and the boss gets a promotion for finding the culprit and seeing that justice is done.
r.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
As a result scientists will in the future find different careers or say nothing and more people will die as the neverending stream of bogus precautionary false alarms are subsequently ignored by the people.
What I don't understand is why by their logic such a result would not be the direct fault of the courts? Line those judges up and charge them with conspiracy to commit manslaughter.
The geologists got into trouble for making false statements. Here is a quote from the article;
De Bernardinis said in a TV interview (recorded shortly before the meeting) “the scientific community tells me there is no danger because there is an ongoing discharge of energy,” a statement that most seismologists consider to be scientifically incorrect.
Notice that they didn't say something like "the scientific community tells me there is less danger because there is an ongoing discharge of energy," which would be scientifically supportable. By stating "no danger" they made an absolute statement that was scientifically unsupportable. They did not have to predict the earthquake; they just should not have ruled one out. There is an issue that the politician may have misinterpreted geologists but the geologists did nothing to correct the misunderstanding leaving the impression that there was zero probability of a major quake..
So yeah, make scientifically unsupportable life and death statements and there are consequences. Perhaps more scientists need to be held accountable for the statements they make.
This is the same country that locked up Galileo.
Could someone post an English translation of what the scientists actually said?
These guys are crazy. What do you think, how will this affect the number of scientists who work on quake analysis for early warning purposes? And their willingness to report anything? I mean, come on, think about it: a). they don't warn, something happens, they go to prison, or b). they warn - better safe than sorry -, people move out, nothing happens, and they'll get sued for all the costs. I really wouldn't want to be a volcano/quake scientist in Italy right now.
I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I can think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
Warning! Don't go to Italy!
Sounds like you're well on the way to developing some hardcore Nostradamosity. :) But really, it has nothing to do with science; Italy is just systematically corrupt. Whether it's nuclear waste disposal or child prostitution by the president, there's pretty much a 100% chance that someone is shirking the rules. The American media circus is nothing compared to the mess in Italy (and France and Greece, but that's a story for another time.)
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On the 2011 Corruption Perceptions Index they're #69 out of 183 countries - only slighty ahead of China and Brazil, and behind Poland and the Czech Republic/Slovakia. They really stand out among major Western European nations here, having a corruption score more in line with the FSU and Communist bloc countries.
is the one that can actually predict earthquakes, because he is the one that caused them, he lives in an active volcano, and wants one million dollars! Muhahaha!
Thank God, at least leap days are safe!
If by chance one happens on leap day, you sir are going straight to jail/hell!
I only look human.
My mother is a halfling and my dad is an ogre, so that makes me an Ogreling
We have an example in the UK of a comparably embarrassing prediction. On Oct 15th, 1987, the BBC weather forecaster, Michael Fish, stated: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't..." . It is a matter of record that later that night winds of hurricane force lashed the southern UK, killing 18 people. The difference is that we didn't find Michael Fish guilty of manslaughter. We laughed at him. We laughed at him because even the worst-educated person in the UK can see that with the best will in the world, predictions (even assuming that prediction is the right word for what the geologists did) can go wrong. In whatever God-forsaken part of the world I might have imagined that this earthquake episode might have taken place, I could scarcely have imagined a Western European country. To imagine that all, or indeed any, of the deaths that occurred could be laid directly at the door of these geologists is beyond insane. It's positively Neolithic.
I wonder what this means for the scientists and political leaders who dismiss global warming?
Does this mean I can sue weathermen and women for incorrectly predicting the weather?
I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
In this case, we aren't talking about scientists who are doing basic research to advance the pool of our scientific knowledge. We are talking about people who apply their existing technical understanding to give evaluations on the likelihood of very specific real world scenarios. I don't understand how asking a geologist "Is there likely to be an earthquake soon?" is inherently different from asking an engineer "Is this building likely to collapse soon?". It seems than in this context, the person was more of an engineer than a scientist, for any meaningful definitions of those terms.
I'm not saying that sentencing him was necessarily a good thing. If there simply wasn't enough data to make a reliable prediction and he told them that, then he shouldn't be held accountable ("Ought entails can", and all that stuff) just as an engineer shouldn't be held accountable in a similar scenario.
The crux of the matter is that the punishment is excessive. Sloppily-worded, yes. Sinister intentions, no. It was a show trial to vent political anger.
TFA: "The failure to remind residents of earthquake preparedness procedures in the face of such risks is one of the reasons that John Mutter, a seismologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, declined to sign the open letter circulated to support the Italian scientists. Mutter says that in his opinion, "these guys shouldn't go to jail, but they should be fined or censured because they should have said something other than what they said. To say 'don't worry' -- that sort of thing just isn't helpful. You need to remind people of their earthquake drills:..." [emphasis added]
Table-ized A.I.
Look. Quakes are an act of God.
The Pope is the Main Man when it comes to God.
The Pope didn't warn them.
The Pope is guilty of murder.
Be seeing you...
If there's a hurricane right off the coast and you tell people there's NO CHANCE it's coming ashore, and it does, then yes.
What if you tell people that the series of small squalls that have happened in recent years does not necessarily mean we will have a large hurricane come ashore this season, despite what the guy driving up and down the beach with a megaphone is saying, but you should still be sure to properly build your houses and the building codes do need improvement. So, if a large hurricane comes ashore the next year, 150 miles away from where the monster-shouter was voicing his concern, should we throw the weatherman in jail?
If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
This is a black day for science. This drumhead was obviously meant to find a scapegoat for what happened. Ultimately it falls into the same category as the Chinese astrologer who was sentenced to death by the Emperor for failing to predict the solar eclipse.
It is an affront to science and to humanity in general.
And on the Eighth Day, Man created God.
If scientists and doctors save a person's life, people thank God for the miracle.
If an "act of God" kills people, then people blame the scientists.
The real crooks are the cops and civil defense people
Corrupt building inspectors were most likely the biggest issue. Newly constructed buildings were not built to code and came crumbling down. Of course, it's a lot harder to go after those guys than just blaming some scientists who were making reasonable predictions based on the available data.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/world/europe/08codes.html
The honorable Vox Day says it best:
"It's both fascinating and informative, isn't it. Scientists are absolutely certain that the science is settled and they are more than willing to declare what laws should be passed, what classes should be taught, and what massive economic interventions and intrusions on individual freedom should be suffered due to the absolute reliability of their scientific knowledge."
"But hold them personally responsible for their predictions and declarations? Well, that's an outrage! Science isn't actually expected to be reliable, after all! I look forward to seeing climate scientists being similarly prosecuted one day for the complete failure of their predictive models. The evolutionary biologists should be safe, unfortunately, since they don't even have any predictive models."
He didn't tell me that the likelihood of rain exceeded zero and therefore I would get wet.
We are living in a world run by people with Borderline Personality Disorder.
While I'm sure the corrupt local politicians and businessmen (and a deeply cynical view of Italian government and business is seldom unrewarded) refused to listen to the predictions of the grizzled old volcano-hunter, dismissing his warnings as the ravings of a once-prominent vulcanologist who was just never the same after losing his leg to that albino volcano, fact is, they were correct in placing the chance of geological activity in a particular time frame as "unlikely".
Even if their forecast pleased certain business interests and politicoes, it is still true. They just went with the phrase describing the most likely outcome ("unlikely to occur.") over the less likely one ("Activity may occur."). We don't jail meteorologist for predicting thunderstorms and failing to include the unlikely outcomes: "50% chance of thunderstorms DURING WHICH YOU MIGHT BE STRUCK AND KILLED IF YOU DO NOT TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHICH I AM NOT LEGALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING."?, do we?
And this guy (Guy A, I guess) who got 'suppressed' and who actually predicted it with some accuracy-is he now responsible for telling people when an earthquake is not going to happen? And what happens when he eventually makes another prediction? What if they DO take him seriously, as some are saying should clearly have been done in the current instance, and shut down government, shutter businesses, and evacuate likely damage areas? And nothing happens for a week? For a month? Guy A can say "Well, if I get it right within a year, that's nothin' in geological terms, so still pretty good." all he wants, but he is going to experience a lawsuitquake of epic proportions.
So with Guy A beggared, and probably driven to drink*, and those other guys in jail, good luck getting a predictive statement out of a geologist ever again.
Reporter: So, when will this area be subjected to another earthquake?
Geologist A: Absolutely no idea. None whatsoever. The data suggest nothing.
Reporter: And what about you sir? Can you give us a forecast?
Geologist B: Uh...I'm here with the Luthiers' Convention.
*-rolling urine-soaked in the gutters of Montmarte until approached by a mysterious grizzled old one-legged vuclanologist....**
**-this is why I never RTFA.
"To be fair, I was left completely unsupervised." ~Anon
Yawn, the repudlickers promise to help the rich who can already help themselves and you think that's to be lauded?
Why don't the police get charged when they fail to predict murders? Why don't the finance ministers get jailed when the economy of a country fails to perform? Why don't lifesavers ger charged when someone drowns? Italian politicians and judges should be castrated to avoid reproduction. Perhaps then they will start to think in a logical and reasonable way
So here's a question: if this sets a legal precedent, will scientists who fail to predict other things get thrown in jail too? What about scientists who predict stuff that never happens? Jail time is rather pointless but what if a bogus prediction leads to people spending a lot of money? Can they sue for damages?
That's not the whole story either. If you read your own link carefully, it points out that Giuliani predicted the quakes using a method that has never been proven scientifically and has had no peer reviewed papers published. In other words, he's a crackpot who just happened to get lucky;
If you read this article ( http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/05/laquila-earthquake-prediction-giampaolo-giuliani ) you will see that Giuliani was no crackpot - in fact he presented his research to an American conference. Just because someone does not have a PhD does not mean they cannot carry out scientific inquiry. All you need is brains and money. He has some financial backers. It seems, and this happens so often, that because he didn't have the right credentials his work was ignored in Italy and he wasn't allowed to publish. It wasn't until he came to the USA that he was given a fair hearing.
If by misfeasance, a person can be tried for manslaughter, then, is it possible to try the politicians who signed the NDAA for conspiracy to commit murder?
The mind conceives, the body achieves, the spirit manifests.
'The prosecution has focused on a statement made at the press conference by accused committee member Bernardo De Bernardinis, who was then deputy technical head of Italy's Civil Protection Agency.
"The scientific community tells me there is no danger," he said at the time, "because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favourable."' link
AccountKiller
Actually when major earthquakes happen, it is often the case that the seismicity is artificially reduced. That's when stresses build up. Unfortunately this lower seismicity can last for years, causing observers to mistake the lowered seismicity for the normal level.
Tubby or not tubby. Fat is the question
sentence them to have their livers eaten.
Italy, the country where scientists got to jail and mobsters are free to roam around.
Your homework is to read the wikipedia article on "Philosophy of Science" and possibly "empiricism".
Your homework is to re-read the above comments and understand the context in which they were placed. I never said the scientists were operating on faith. That would be you inserting words into my mouth. You got both the statement and it's target wrong, I applaud your blindness, although yours was more likely due to your haste to diminish me, or to prove someone "wrong" on the internet.
I said that there were many on slashdot that were operating on the same basis as blind faith, basically the perspective of "they're scientists, so they can't be wrong". They believe with no attempt to even gather even the most basic of facts. It's the more wordy version of the same complaint we've seen for ages on slashdot: "Read TFA". Your disdain of the comparison doesn't make it less true.
Until we all have a society in which scientists being wrong when warning about disasters, is considered noble, then nobody will dare speak out...