Roadkill Forcing Cliff Swallows To Evolve
sciencehabit writes "Cliff swallows that build nests that dangle precariously from highway overpasses have a lower chance of becoming roadkill than in years past thanks to a shorter wingspan that lets them dodge oncoming traffic. That's the conclusion of a new study based on 3 decades of data collected on one population of the birds. The results suggest that shorter wingspan has been selected for over this time period because of the evolutionary pressure put on the population by cars."
That will be the downfall of your species. Those who march in front are merely the meat-shields for the warriors that follow, the first torn down by the musket balls and horse mounted cavalry while those behind remain to actually fight.
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This could be tricky, if this gets classified as a new species, how do we factor in the need for persistant traffic in environmental impact reports? If we cut traffic this species would lose its competitive edge and thus habitat and could become extinct!
Now if only humans would evolve that fast...
Disagreeing with you does not make me a troll.
If I keep on smacking my kids, their arms will get shorter?
...And this is yet another proof that God exists. My prayer circle has spent the last 10 years asking for Divine intervention to halt the senseless deaths of road-adjacent animals. Thanks to our unceasing intervention, He knew to trim a wee bit off the tip of every bird's wings (gradually, of course, so that mommy birds would still recognize their babies - and left longer wings on the sinner birds so that they would die and serve as a warning to others). Praise Jesus!
these evolutionists are just trying to force these lies down your throats.
how can the birds be changed by the overpasses? the bible tells us that the overpasses have existed since the creation of the universe, 3 decades ago.
What is the new air speed velocity of an unladen cliff swallow?
There is going to be less meat on the little swallow wings. Less meat == less reason for swallows. Perhaps I should hit a few short winged swallows with my car to select for swallows with more tasty swallow wing meat.
The article says it's because they are more maneuverable, but what if they just sit on their asses a lot unlike their easier flying longer winged relatives? Fly less, get hit less.
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution:
Evolution by natural selection is a process that is inferred from three facts about populations:
1) more offspring are produced than can possibly survive
2) traits vary among individuals, leading to different rates of survival and reproduction
3) trait differences are heritable.
Fly less, get less food, starve to death?
I was driving up in the mountains a year or so ago and saw a chipmunk run out into the road between me and the car coming the other way. Now normally this is pretty much certain doom for the chipmunk, but this one stopped calmly on the yellow line, stood up and waited for us to pass before continuing. I've always wondered if the evolutionary pressure of traffic combined with their short generation cycles would lead to critters less likely to become roadkill. Guess I have my answer.
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
The definition of evolution existed for over century before genetic material was discovered.
Keep changing the goalpost because the facts don't match your dogma, kinda like "climate change"
Yes, this may be due to evolution, not of the birds, but the automobile.
To generate increased fuel economy, today's automobile is a lot more streamlined than ones of the past. So there is less air disturbance. It may be that the birds with smaller wings are not affected by the turbulence as much as the larger winged birds are now, and can thus survive an encounter, whereas in the past, there was enough turbulence to affect the birds regardless of wingspan. Also, changes in traffic patterns and vehicle types changes the exhaust, which changes the local plant life, which changes the insect life, which ultimately changes the birds.
While it is simple to observe that long winged birds are being disproportionately killed and that the population's wingspan is growing shorter, and conclude that some sort of selection (Is it natural selection when birds are hit by cars?) is taking place, the reality may be quite different.
When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
It's actually related to the amount of CO2 in the air - atmosphere volume has increased via burning liquid fuels, which increased the air density at the surface, which allowed shorter wings to provide the same lift as the larger historical wings. Or the car thing.
Fly with a purpose when needed, live. Play dodge the highway traffic because you can, splat. If it takes more effort to fly then maybe you cut down on your recreational flying. Sort of like higher gas prices.
more idiots. From antilock brakes to airbags to life-saving medicine and surgery, the more people likely to benefit from these technological advances ensures that more idiots, imbeciles and morons remain alive and viable to pass on their stupid-genes.
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I had to go through a set of lights by a couple truck stops back in the day more than once a week. I noticed grackles (crowish kinda birds) that would wait on the posts or nearby for the lights to turn red. Then they would jump down and pick the grasshoppers and bugs out of the 18 wheeler grills. When the light turned green, they all flew back up and waited. They were quite well fed.
ill take the dark side of the observation and say its just the pollution from the vehicles that pass by as well as chemical's seeping into the roadkill before they eat it causing the birds to have stunted growth issues, in this case, when it comes to the bird's wing's...
Yeah, the maneuverability part was supposition (it's not like they tested the birds with shorter wingspans to see how much more maneuverable they were).
Here's an alternative possible explanation. Older birds are bigger. Older birds have slower reactions. As overpasses became more common, it was predominantly older birds which were killed disproportionately by passing cars. Consequently the birds may have increased in number, but their population distribution is now skewed towards the younger, smaller end.
Slight pedantry: The swallows aren't being forced to evolve. The selection pressure is causing evolution among the swallows.
What effect does this have on their air speed and coconut carrying ability?
re: I see hawks or eagles circling some highways nowadays
:>)
My understanding of why birds of prey are often seen circling highways is that they are taking advantage of thermals, rising columns of air heated by the asphalt/cement roadway surfaces, to power and maintain their gliding and flying. The fact that there's also an abundance of roadkill may have something to do with it also. See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge-tailed_Eagle#Behaviour_and_diet for how the eagles can observe thermals with their infrared vision.
OK so change the definition when things stop working out for you.
Like you just did when you claimed natural selection but not evolution? No. That has always been the definition of evolution from when Charles Darwin first put it in writing.
Is that seriously enough time for such an evolution to take place? I was not aware evolution happened so quickly, even accounting for their quicker viability for reproduction. Seems like there might be a million other reasons why this is happening, not because of something so recent.
Because, contrary to popular judeo-christian mythology, evolution is NOT magic.
Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
... to simply avoid building nests that dangle precariously from highway overpasses? Why not chose safer nesting places? What if a huge truck passes on top of the bridge, shaking it so much that the nest comes off and falls down on the highway below? Then the brood is dead, shorter wingspans or not...
1) more offspring are produced than can possibly survive
Why is this fact required? Don't the other two suffice by themselves?
systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
We often get stories like this where some scientists make some observation and declare that that was due to evolution. If evolution is such a great theory, how about someone come up with a prediction for once, as in something like, "Due to these conditions, this so-and-so life form will eventually evolve to have such-and-such appurtenances with such-and-such characteristics". Anybody up for the challenge?
Dropbox drops it like it's hot.
In other words, while the early bird gets the worm it's the second mouse that gets the cheese?
If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
What happened then was hilarious. The hare saw the left head light, became scared and jumped to the right. Being now closer to the right head light, it became scared again and jumped to the left. Then again to the right, and so the hare became trapped between her head lights. This continued until the next village where there was light all over the place, and the hare got away (... while the village people shook their head how anybody could let a perfectly good hare run away after having had such an easy opportunity for miles...)
Fast forward 35 years later. I was also driving on a nightly country road, and you guessed it a hare. Not knowing how to dress one either (and not being that fond of venison anyways), I just followed it for 2-3 jumps, then briefly switched off my lights to let it go...
So, apparently hares didn't evolve in those 35 years...
Because, contrary to popular judeo-christian mythology, evolution is NOT magic.
Please defend your statement by pointing out the section of the Bible where evolution is discussed.
Because folks confusing what a bunch of right-wing fundamentalist nutjobs spout on TV vs. actual Christian religious tradition is part of the problem.
You are aware that the size difference in fish is NOT to seperate fit from unfit fish but that is a seperation on AGE of the fish?
Basically you are suggesting that the answer to a healthy fish stock for the future is to kill all the young and life the adults to swim free...
I know this is Slashdot and that with your intelligence we should all be grateful you got so little practical experience with reproduction but I think that even you might need to read up a bit on how a species survives.
Hint: It involves adults dying and being replaced by something that came out of them before they died.
You know people are to far removed from nature when people seriously suggest that killing the babies is the way to preserve a species.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Now, they either wait patiently or bolt across the road when everything looked all in the clear.
Here the squirrels like to run 3/4 across a road, where they do a quick 180 and then head back to the original curb. And the little rat bastards always make it, even if you floor it. I guess only running 3/4 across the road is an evolutionary advantage to running curb-to-curb. 8^B (squirrel smiley face)
There is more to "judeo-chistian mythology" than just the Bible.
One centimeter ain't going to help you there either...
It was long enough for your father.
The 36 in your name is your IQ?
Are the short-winged swallows unable to mate with other swallow in their parent population?
There is no dispute that traits are inherited and that of the traits in the gene pool of an organism, certain traits can be selected, either through breeding or through environmental selection pressure such as road kill of swallows, soot on trees with moths, or superbugs emerging with antibiotic resistance.
Has anyone, however, observed this selection effect going on for a long enough time for the emergence of new species?
Has anyone seen mutations arise that weren't in the gene pool of an organism and seen the mutated form "take over" a population because the mutation conferred a survival advantage, in other words, a Hopeful Monster in the lingo of evolutionary biology?
So in the Arthur C Clarke sense of any tech beyond current knowledge takes on the appearance of magic, evolution is and remains magic. There are a variety of hypothesized ways to generate entirely new species, but they have not been observed directly.
I have no respect for a bird that gets killed 4 - 6 feet off the ground.
I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
Its the same thing, get educated:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptation
I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
I'd say that the Book of Genesis was part of Christian tradition, and that explicitly states that God created animals and man from scratch, in direct contradiction to the Theory of Evolution.
What Bible are you reading? From Genesis 1:
11 And God said, Let the earth bring forth grass, the herb yielding seed, and the fruit tree yielding fruit after his kind, whose seed is in itself, upon the earth: and it was so.
12 And the earth abrought forth grass, and herb yielding seed after his kind, and the tree yielding fruit, whose seed was in itself, after his kind: and God saw that it was good.
I'm missing the part where it "explicitly" says "from scratch with no evolution involved." It just says God said, "Make it so," all Captain Picard like, and then it was carried out through some unspecified agency.There are literally no details about how it was done. Likewise with the animals:
20 And God said, Let the waters bring forth abundantly the moving creature that hath life, and fowl that may fly above the earth in the open firmament of heaven.
21 And God created great whales, and every living creature that moveth, which the waters brought forth abundantly, after their kind, and every winged fowl after his kind: and God saw that it was good.
22 And God blessed them, saying, Be fruitful, and multiply, and fill the waters in the seas, and let fowl multiply in the earth.
23 And the evening and the morning were the fifth day.
24 And God said, Let the earth bring forth the living creature after his kind, cattle, and creeping thing, and beast of the earth after his kind: and it was so.
25 And God made the beast of the earth after his kind, and cattle after their kind, and every thing that creepeth upon the earth after his kind: and God saw that it was good.
Even the word "day" could better be rendered "time period." A "day" might be 1 billion years. In any case, evolutionary theory neither proves nor disproves God. In fact, if you read Origin of Species, you'll find that Charles Darwin was not the atheist demigod smarmy atheists like to make him out to be. He speaks quite openly about God and pontificates that "Hey, maybe this is how God speciates animals." (Also, he wasn't particularly concerned with the ultimate origin of life. He was specifically concerned with speciation.)
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I'm pretty sure none of these analogies are valid...
+1 Disagree
Sorry, I meant to add the correct analogy you guys were looking for: the first model year of a car is always to be avoided, because they haven't worked out the kinks yet.
+1 Disagree
A "day" might be 1 billion years.
And "seed" might be asteroids, "fowl" might be spaceships, "creeping thing" might be nanotech bots and "blessed" may be "provided a 1 billion year support contract". If you like to provide your own translation of every word and concept in the Bible, you can make it anything you want it to be, prove anything you like and be infinitely update-able.
If we were to accept this, it must be very comforting that Genesis can seem to be more than simplistic myth. But it doesn't stop it being fiction.
I'm pretty sure any non-idiotic *anybody* simply says the Bible is a collection of stories and parables with valuable life lessons for the place and time in which it was written. As with all old stories, they're usually rooted in some factual event that occurred at the time. Christians take it a step further claiming its writing was guided by God. Idiotic Christians take it even one step further claiming every word as a literal truth, but luckily there are very few of those.
I know it's fashionable to assume everybody who believes in Christianity takes every kernel of the Bible as an absolute truth, but most take the book as a whole. You talk about ignoring the details - with all of our modern science, we *still* can't grasp the details of how the universe was created.
Hell, I'm not even a Christian. Why do you jump to inflammatory conclusions and make me take their side?
+1 Disagree
There is an exhibit at the New England Aquarium about exactly this. It claims that fishing has drastically reduced the size of Atlantic cod since the 17th century.
[Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
Except I literally mean that "day" in the sense of a 24-hour period is not the best translation for this word. The Old Testament wasn't written in English. It was written in Hebrew. The Hebrew word "yom" does not have an identical meaning to the English "day," and can be used to refer to lots of different spans of time.
As far as "myth," I don't know that the atheist myth of the universe simply creating itself spontaneously and purely by accident is any more credible than believing that a really smart person was directing those same natural processes to achieve an intended result.
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You almost believed what? That this is what Genesis 1 says? I was copying from a text that had footnote references, and I missed taking one out. But feel free to otherwise compare it to any KJV text.
Today's Sesame Street was brought to you by the number e.
Evolution by natural selection is a process that is inferred from three facts about populations:
1) more offspring are produced than can possibly survive
2) traits vary among individuals, leading to different rates of survival and reproduction
3) trait differences are heritable.
None of that generates new genetic material.
Without new genetic material, this "evolution" is unable to "progress". If evolution is simply "change", there is no controversy - it's quite obvious that organisms are able to change from generation to generation. (And evolutionary theory is completely unnecessary to observe this, as Mendel illustrates)
But there is an evolution controversy, and it's rooted in the evolutionary belief that if you add up a lot of small changes, you eventually end up with a big change; and that you can get from simple species to complex species by a lot of small incremental steps.
Keep changing the goalpost because the facts don't match your dogma, kinda like "climate change"
What change in goalpost?
Without new genetic material, evolution from simple to complex species does not happen.
"Atheist myth" is an oxymoron. Atheism, in and of itself, has nothing to say about the origin of the universe beyond rejecting the absurdity of supernatural beings bring involved.
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And where is your observational proof that there is no God?
Exactly the same place as my observational proof that there are no unicorns. I don't believe in them either, do you?
the early worm gets eaten.
Why is this fact required?
It's just a fact of life. It is significant to evolution because living things of the same species compete for the same resources, and those with even a slight advantage conferred by a heritable trait are more likely to pass that advantage on. Hence, natural selection.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
None of that generates new genetic material.
No, it doesn't. New material is generated in a variety of ways. Mutations are(as far as I know) the most common development of novel genetic material. Duplications, inversions, copy mistakes, mistakes in damage repair, etc. You can get new genetic material from interbreeding between related species(say, lions and tigers). You can even get direct genetic integration from virus infections(endogenous retroviruses) and the like. This is grist used by the process of evolution. It does take a while, as there is no guarantees that any individual change will be beneficial or will spread to others. In the only example we know of, it took about 3.6 billion years to turn a basic single celled organism into us.
But there is an evolution controversy, and it's rooted in the evolutionary belief that if you add up a lot of small changes, you eventually end up with a big change; and that you can get from simple species to complex species by a lot of small incremental steps.
In as much as it is possible to prove that, it has been done.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
They have evolved 4D.
You just can't see them.
They can see you, though.
They watch.
A lot.
I have never seen a unicorn. I will happily admit to that. But it would take a huge leap of faith for me to affirmatively deny that a horse-like creature with a horn on its head has ever existed here or anywhere else in the universe. The best I can say about unicorns is I don't know. Much less would I form an entire secular religion around the fact that I have never seen a unicorn and therefore affirmatively deny their existence.
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You missed the critical word "more". Suppose that there is a bird that produces both blue and orange offspring, and that there is plenty of food and lodging available for both types. However, the polka-dot hawk eats all the orange offspring. Over time, the blue-orange bird may well evolve to not produce orange offspring, because those offspring aren't successful. Note that it is not that "more offspring are produced than can possibly survive", just that one type of offspring doesn't survive because it is unfit for an environment including polka-dot hawks.
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In as much as it is possible to prove that, it has been done.
You do not have enough time for random mutations to generate enough possible answers for natural selection to sift out the "right ones". You're left with some unexplained and unobserved form of guided mutation, which natural selection is incapable of providing.
It's not remotely proven, which is why it is necessary to point out the difference between natural selection and evolution, and why the various examples of natural selection are not actually proofs for evolution as it is claimed.
There are species of bacteria who have several times more 'genetic material' than humans or swallows. The amount of DNA has nothing to do with evolution. If you meant 'changed' rather than 'added' when you said "new genetic material" then I agree with you, the sentence is a bit ambiguous.
"Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
You do not have enough time for random mutations to generate enough possible answers for natural selection to sift out the "right ones".
3.6 billion years is plenty of time.
You're left with some unexplained and unobserved form of guided mutation, which natural selection is incapable of providing.
What a useless, unsupported claim. Who was guiding this "guided mutation" that you start with? And upon what grounds are you basing your idea that natural selection is incapable of producing the results we see?
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
there is an evolution controversy
No, not really. It's about as close to a settled fact as you can get in science.
if you add up a lot of small changes, you eventually end up with a big change
Right. What is the alternative, add up a lot of small changes and then not see any change? Australopithecus came down from the trees, got longer legs, shorter arms, better vision, upright posture, wider pelvis, smaller teeth and a larger brain. Is it still an Australopithecus, or is it now a Homo Habilis? I fail to see any logic in your statement, these small changes have added up to a new animal.
"Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
3.6 billion years is plenty of time.
Human genome size is 3 billion base pairs, with 4 possible values for each pair.
Let's say that you can vary half of the human genome without consequence . (Note: Many human genetic defects are caused by very small genetic changes; this restricts the actual number of viable variations) That leaves 1.5 billion base pairs that *must* be a certain value in order to create a functional human being.
Out of 4^1.5e9 possibilities, you need a specific sequence for a human being. You need to try 9*1e1e8 possibilities to expect to randomly happen upon it. Note that a googol is a 1e1e2 (1e100).
Even if we relax the "minimum number of base pairs for a human being", the numbers are still ridiculously large. If only 300 million base pairs are necessary, you still need to try 1.8e1e8 possibilities before you might randomly hit the human combination.
How many combination do you need to try each year to reach that in 3.6 billion years? That's 3.6e9, or 3.6e1e0.95.
1.8e1e8 divided by 3.6e1e0.95 - you're still dealing with around 1e1e8 (1e100000000) individuals every year. Again, for reference, a googol is 1e100. The number of chances we need to have tried per year is orders of orders of magnitude greater than an already ridiculously large number.
One more fun calculation. Mass of single bacterium: 1e-14g. 1e100000000 individuals is 1e99999986g, or 1e99999983 kg. Mass of earth? 6e24 kg.
So no, we don't have enough time, because for the expected chance of human life to pop up to equal one, we need a universe much much much much older than it is currently calculated to be.
What a useless, unsupported claim. Who was guiding this "guided mutation" that you start with? And upon what grounds are you basing your idea that natural selection is incapable of producing the results we see?
You just agreed with me that natural selection does not generate new genetic material. It is incapable of creating, is it only able to destroy the failures.
Random mutation doesn't have enough tries in several billion years to exhaust the entire sample space of "possible genetic combinations".
That leaves non-random mutation, which is "guided" mutation - but then we need a mechanism that provides non-random mutation, which as I note is "unexplained" and "unobserved".
There are species of bacteria who have several times more 'genetic material' than humans or swallows. The amount of DNA has nothing to do with evolution. If you meant 'changed' rather than 'added' when you said "new genetic material" then I agree with you, the sentence is a bit ambiguous.
Can you have a self-reproducing lifeform with a single DNA basepair?
Considering that you need to code for proteins to decode DNA, proteins to build protein building blocks, and proteins to harvest energy to operate the other proteins, there is a minimum size of genetic material needed for a bacterium, let alone a vertebrate with specialized cells and tissues.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome#Genome_size
Looking at the list on wiki, there is most definitely a correlation between amount of genetic material and functionality/capability. You cite the existence of bloated code, but that fails to prove there is no minimum size for code. In fact, that's an absurd claim to anyone with passing knowledge of software development.
if you add up a lot of small changes, you eventually end up with a big change
Right. What is the alternative, add up a lot of small changes and then not see any change?
Yes. If a body part gets bigger, then smaller, then bigger over hundreds of generations, you end up in an equilibrium rather than with runaway "progress".
See Darwin's finches - they're not becoming a large beak/small beak species, but rather varying with the cycle of seasons for their part of the world. Hundreds of years later, they're still finches, and their beak sizes are still varying up *and* down.
There was change, but there is no net change. Thus the need to distinguish between "natural selection" (variation within a species) and "evolution" (one species into something entirely new).
YOU are the one providing an incorrect translation, you are the one insisting it means what you want it to mean.
The Hebrew word "yom" means "period of time". It may be used to mean 12 hours, may be used to mean 24 hours, and it may be used longer periods of time. For example Genesis 4:3: "And in process of time(yom) it came to pass, that Cain brought of the fruit of the ground an offering unto the Lord." In that case "yom" means "one growing season". That is a several month period of time.
To quote Lewis Black:
He believes that the earth was created in seven days. Whew! Takes my breath away. And why does he believe that? Because he read it in the Old Testament, which is the book of my people - the Jewish people. And that book wasn't good enough for you Christians, was it? You went, "No, we've got a better book, with a better character, you're going to LOVE him!" And you called your book NEW, and said our book was OLD!
And yet every Sunday I turn on the television set, and there's a priest or a pastor reading from my book, and interpreting it, and their interpretations, I have to tell you, are usually wrong. It's not their fault, because it's not their book. You never see a rabbi on the TV interpreting the New Testament, do you? If you want to truly understand the Old Testament, if there is something you don't quite get, there are Jews who walk among you, and THEY - I promise you this - will take TIME out of their VERY JEWY, JEWY DAY, and interpret for you anything that you're having trouble understanding. And we will do that, if, of course, the price is right.
The next time you want to argue Old Testament translation and interpretation, try asking someone who speaks the language. I don't claim to be fluent in the Hebrew, but I rather suspect I've spent more time in Hebrew School than you have.
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P.S.
I Kings 11:42: "And the time(yom) that Solomon reigned in Jerusalem over all Israel was forty years."
Yom = a period of 40 years.
Isaiah 30:8: "Now go, write it before them in a table, and note it in a book, that it may be for the time(yom) to come for ever and ever."
Yom = a FOREVER period of time.
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- - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
Yeah and it also says that the plants grew from the earth the way they do today. God didnt just produce full grown trees, they were brought forth and then yielded seeds. It could have said "And God created trees of their full stature already bearing their fruits", but it doesn't. Also the hebrew word for day has three meanings... it means "a 24 hour day" but it also means an unspecific era of time much longer than a day. Many words had multiple meanings because they had fewer words back then, and you have to translate based on context and historical setting.
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I'll use a more basic example for you. Suppose that we had 65 six sided dice, and that 65 sixes represents a particular complex genome(you could use any combination of 65 results, but it is mathematically immaterial). Randomly hitting that result has a probability of 3.8x10^50. That would correspond to the silly conception that you are using above. Pretty damned unlikely. But, then, that bears no resemblance to actual evolutionary theory. Take a very much simplified version where results of 6 are kept. At that point, it generally only takes 25-30 rolls to get the required result. Quite a difference, wouldn't you say? Here's a simple example of that in Perl if you want to try it yourself:
#!/usr/bin/perl
my $number_of_sixes = 0;
my $number_of_rolls = 0;
my $number_of_attempts = 1000;
my $total_rolls = 0;
for(my $i = 0; $i while($number_of_sixes my $number_of_dice = 65 - $number_of_sixes;
while($number_of_dice > 0) {
my $dice_roll = int(rand(6)) + 1;
if ($dice_roll == 6) {
$number_of_sixes++;
}
$number_of_dice--;
}
$number_of_rolls++;
}
$total_rolls += $number_of_rolls;
}
print "Total number of rolls: $total_rolls\n";
print "Total number of experiments: $number_of_attempts\n";
print "Average number of rolls to get 6 dice each time: " . $total_rolls/$number_of_attempts . "\n";
Now, in reality, natural selection acts as a filter on the random inputs of genetic additions. Thus, your prime mistake is exemplified in this statement:
you still need to try 1.8e1e8 possibilities before you might randomly hit the human combination
Natural selection acts to conserve working combinations and discard detrimental combinations. Just like applying the filter of selecting 6's dramtically drops the required number of tries to reach an unlikely outcome, so to does natural selection radically drop the generations required to reach complex lifeforms.
You just agreed with me that natural selection does not generate new genetic material. It is incapable of creating, is it only able to destroy the failures.
Non sequitur. It does not follow that because natural selection does not generate new genetic material that it is a process which is only destructive. It facilitates increased fitness. This is certainly an additive or, as you seem to prefer, creative process.
Random mutation doesn't have enough tries in several billion years to exhaust the entire sample space of "possible genetic combinations".
Since such a thing isn't remotely required by evolution, this is another non sequitur.
That leaves non-random mutation, which is "guided" mutation - but then we need a mechanism that provides non-random mutation, which as I note is "unexplained" and "unobserved".
No, this is just your attempt to interject a "god of the gaps" into your inability(or refusal) to correctly understand what evolutionary theory is and how it works. A sadly common occurance.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
There was change, but there is no net change.
The level of ignorance which this statement implies is breathtaking.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
'Creation' implies a creator, and a time before which the universe existed. Most rational materialists believe in neither.
The level of ignorance which this statement implies is breathtaking.
Apparently the concept of oscillation is beyond you.
What is the average of a sin wave?
Take a very much simplified version where results of 6 are kept. At that point, it generally only takes 25-30 rolls to get the required result. Quite a difference, wouldn't you say? Here's a simple example of that in Perl if you want to try it yourself:
Your model is incapable of failure (extinction), which makes it rigged.
It assumes that every single "correct" base pair you hit is "hard-saved" from ever being lost. Your model only takes 25-30 independent rolls to "hit" the target, because every dice is rolled in parallel and is utterly independent of the dice around it. You end up measuring how long it takes a single dice to roll a 6, which on average is 6 rolls, and should definitely have been hit once by the 30th roll P(30) = 1-(5/6)^30.
If that model had any bearing on reality, it predicts we should see life from scratch and new lifeforms popping up every day! After all, with 4 base pairs, all 4 possibilities can be rolled pretty easily. (You're also looking at a 100% mutation rate for every base pair location. I wonder how an organism with 10 million base pairs rolls for 300 million base pair slots?)
Natural selection acts to conserve working combinations and discard detrimental combinations. Just like applying the filter of selecting 6's dramtically drops the required number of tries to reach an unlikely outcome, so to does natural selection radically drop the generations required to reach complex lifeforms.
That estimate was a first pass approximation and did ignore natural selection; but it also ignores extinction rates and "bad mutations".
Certainly there's no real world guarantee that every "correct" mutation to the genome gets saved and never gets corrupted. (Natural selection is going to determine survival or death with 100% certainty based on a single base pair mutation in a 10 million/1 billion base pair sequence?)
The models we've used also ignore that code doesn't work incrementally. Half of a protein is more likely going to be a non-effective protein rather than a half-effective protein. The dice are interdependent. "THE" is a word and has meaning. "TNE" is not.
So let's try a different analysis. How many generations do you need to get from "nothing" to human? If we assume each generation can add one "correct" base pair, that takes 3 billion generations. That's not too hard to hit with just bacteria, but at the "halfway point", it's not bacteria any more - it's something with a reproduction period measured in years, not hours. To fit evolutionary timelines, we are exponentially increasing genome size, but organisms with larger genomes have much slower reproduction rates and longer reproduction periods (less individuals, less chances). To make it fit, the mutation rate on the later generations has to be much higher, and there has to be more than one addition per generation.
You end up cramming billions of "good" mutations into several hundred million years. But we don't observe rampant mutation in higher life forms - and rampant mutation is more likely to break than to improve. ex: With 30 million "correct" base pairs; 30 million chances to mutate "incorrectly", and being generous, several million chances to mutate "correctly".
Non sequitur. It does not follow that because natural selection does not generate new genetic material that it is a process which is only destructive. It facilitates increased fitness. This is certainly an additive or, as you seem to prefer, creative process.
If natural selection only removes individuals from the population, it cannot increase genetic diversity, which means it cannot add the information needed to get from life Zero to humanity.
Perfect natural selection does improve your chances if it only lets the "most correct" individuals reproduce, but that assumes a winner take all system where every tiny reproductive advantage is propagated across the entire po
Well that's the difference between Evolution and Creationism, isn't it? Evolution is a scientific theory that is, and indeed must, be open to constant refinement and challenge in the light of the proven, reproducible evidence. Creationism is based on the bible, the infallible word of God, no proof needed, end of discussion.
If you want to open the can of worms that says the bible might be wrong because it's the work of mere men, then that's fine with me.
This is all well and good. But you'll find a great number of people have based a religion on the translation being a "day". What the Hebrew translation is matters very little.
It also seems a bit odd to split a totally flexible periods of time into defined parts. On the first totally arbitrary and flexible period of time God did this. On the second totally flexible and arbitrary period he did this. Exactly when the first became the second is totally flexible, as there is no obvious reason to split the two, The first could cover the period of the second, being totally of a totally flexible length.
I guess my point is the story is riddled with literary devices, metaphors and figures of speech. Which is fine, because that's what it ultimately is; a story. It was designed to be a good read. It is no basis for understanding the universe.
Apparently the concept of oscillation is beyond you.
Apparently the history of life on this planet is a mystery to you.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
smaller body, smaller food requirement.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
Its a claim so absurd that it could only be brought up as a strawman in order to discredit an opponent when you no longer have an effective rational argument to use...
Your model is incapable of failure (extinction), which makes it rigged.
And your model ignores everything we know about the development of life, which makes it at best an example of a complete misunderstanding of evolution.
It assumes that every single "correct" base pair you hit is "hard-saved" from ever being lost. Your model only takes 25-30 independent rolls to "hit" the target, because every dice is rolled in parallel and is utterly independent of the dice around it.
And you completely miss the point. My example is a very crude example of how filters turn random input into non-random output. Of course it doesn't take into account mutations, extinctions, etc. It's a model which can be expressed in a short Perl script, after all. But it's still closer to what is actually happening than the mess you posted.
Certainly there's no real world guarantee that every "correct" mutation to the genome gets saved and never gets corrupted.
Of course not. That's a legacy of my model. And I've made more complex models which do not guaranteee survival of "correct" genes and model sexual reproduction, random deletions, random additions and various mutations. The same filtering process is apparent there, too.
(Natural selection is going to determine survival or death with 100% certainty based on a single base pair mutation in a 10 million/1 billion base pair sequence?)
If the mutation is sufficiently detrimental, certainly. Most of the time, it is not. You and I both have novel mutations in our genes which are not present in our parents. Yet, we've survived long enough to type out these messages, and I've survived long enough to reproduce, so my novel combinations have a chance to perpetuate.
The models we've used also ignore that code doesn't work incrementally. Half of a protein is more likely going to be a non-effective protein rather than a half-effective protein. The dice are interdependent. "THE" is a word and has meaning. "TNE" is not.
Proteins do not have to be perfectly effective to work. And non-functional or semi-functional proteins are not necessarily detrimental to survival, thus having no effect on survivability. For example, suppose a primitive proto-bacteria had a duplication event and now two proto-genes are generating the same protein. This very well may have no effect on its ability to reproduce(and it very well could, too; there are no guarantees). However, now one of those copies can be subject to mutation without affecting the original protein. It may end up non-functional(so called "junk DNA"), it may end mutating and functioning slightly different from the original gene(like the many related proteins responsible for blood clotting) or it may end up deleted at some point. In fact, if you want a good example of how proteins can evolve, look up the evolutionary history of blood clotting mechanisms.
So let's try a different analysis. How many generations do you need to get from "nothing" to human? If we assume each generation can add one "correct" base pair, that takes 3 billion generations.
Given that we share a large part of our genes with bacteria, roughly along the lines of 40%, then a lot of that took place rather rapidly. At a generation rate of 20 minutes and shooting for 40%(1.2 billion generations), that takes 937,000 years, roughly. Subtract that from 3.6 billion years, and you have a 40% human genome with 3.599 billion years left to generate the remaining 60%. The generations do get longer for multicellular organisms, but that is counter balanced by the development of sexual reproduction which speeds up the exchange of novel and complimentary genetic changes.
Let's look at it from the opposite side. We differ from chimpanzees by roughly 2% of our DNA, or 60 million base pairs. We diverged from their line about 6 million years ago. That's a rate of 10 base pair ch
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
No, my understanding of evolution is limited to attending a public lecture of the late Stephen Jay Gould and reading most of his popular-literature-for-the-layman books on the subject. There are things observed directly, such as the moths in smoggy London or the swallows in the highway overpass, and there are many things observed indirectly, such as the cladistic relationships in the fossil record or the Woese genetic distances. Gould discusses many of the gaps in scientific understanding of evolution, and maybe I haven't kept up on the latest science on the filling in of those gaps. But I was suggesting, that parts of evolution are "magic" in these sense of Arthur C Clarke, not magic in the sense of violating any natural laws, but magic in the sense that there are many hypothesized mechanisms for which scientific research is still filling in the details. At your suggestion, I Googled "nylonase", and as the name suggests, this is an enzyme that is inferred to have entered the gene pool of bacteria through a mutation that allows these bacteria to process a man-made substance. As another response to my post suggested, there is a big gap between what happens in bacteria with speciation in sexual-reproducing multi-celluar eucaryotic species. And something for which there is compelling evidence can be discussed in reasoned, even-tempered prose, without ad-hominen attacks on the knowledge of someone one barely knows, and without the words "zero" and "absurd" in shouting caps.
Apparently the history of life on this planet is a mystery to you.
You've called my statement ignorant, but my statement accurately describes an oscillating function. A sin wave is always changing, but if you sum up the entirety of its changes, it will always be between the value 1 and -1. If you pick an interval that is a precise multiple of its period, you have an average value of 0. There is no net change.
If you only looked at an interval where the sin wave is increasing and extrapolated, you might predict that the function goes to infinity as time goes to infinity, and that would be completely wrong.
Faced with an inability to defend your assertion, you have switched topics. Keep digging.
"that explicitly states that God created animals and man from scratch, in direct contradiction to the Theory of Evolution."
Explain why random movements of quarks creating animals and man from scratch is any different that God using the engineering method of evolution to create animals and man from scratch.
Bigotry goes both ways, you know.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
I do, using the definition of unicorn documented by Pliny the Elder. We usually call them rhinoceros (horn-nose) today.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
Faced with an inability to defend your assertion, you have switched topics. Keep digging.
You are the one switching topics. The fossil record clearly demonstrates the changes in lifeforms over billions of years. You refute that by appealing to a sine wave, with no justification for ignoring the evidence. Saying that you are ignorant is the kindest assumption.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
To be exact, from Pliny the Elder- a horse like animal with no fur, feet like an elephant, and a horn on it's nose. I've seen a few, in the zoo. But we usually call them by their Greek name instead of their Latin name, and that might confuse you.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
It also seems a bit odd to split a totally flexible periods of time into defined parts. On the first totally arbitrary and flexible period of time God did this. On the second totally flexible and arbitrary period he did this. Exactly when the first became the second is totally flexible, as there is no obvious reason to split the two, The first could cover the period of the second, being totally of a totally flexible length.
I don't see any problem with this. It's just dividing a big event we call "creation" into a discrete set of tasks, like you would do if you were writing:
World Create(ingredient matter, ingredient energy, String name)
... (and so on)
{
LetThereBeLight();
Divide(light, darkness);
Gather(waters, dry_land);
BringForth(plants); Create(animals);
Create(man);
I am a devoutly religious person. But I don't confuse the Bible with a science textbook. A person can believe the Bible without believing that it contains a detailed blueprint of the Universe. If God is a God of truth, then scientific investigation---which is a search for truth---bring us closer to him, not farther away. Science is only a problem for people who believe that the Bible contains all the truth that there ever is or will be; that if something is not explicitly in the Bible it must be false. I am not one of those people. I accept the Bible for what it claims to be: a testament of Christ that is more focused on our relationship with God than with specifically how we got zebras. I do not believe that God wants his children to be idiots. He wants us to explore the world around us and see all the cool stuff there is to figure out. If he spoon fed us every detail through religious texts, we wouldn't learn anything, just like you don't learn algebra by copying answers out of the teacher's manual.
Today's Sesame Street was brought to you by the number e.
But we usually call them by their Greek name instead of their Latin name, and that might confuse you.
Actually, no, because that's what they call a rhino in the Bible too.
Today's Sesame Street was brought to you by the number e.
And you completely miss the point. My example is a very crude example of how filters turn random input into non-random output. Of course it doesn't take into account mutations, extinctions, etc. It's a model which can be expressed in a short Perl script, after all. But it's still closer to what is actually happening than the mess you posted.
An algorithm designed to create a sequence of 6s succeeded in creating a sequence of 6s.
Is natural selection an algorithm that is "looking for" humans?
Of course not. That's a legacy of my model. And I've made more complex models which do not guaranteee survival of "correct" genes and model sexual reproduction, random deletions, random additions and various mutations. The same filtering process is apparent there, too.
That inheritance improves the odds slightly was not in question. The point was that there are other unaccounted forces (survival, environmental changes, luck) working against the unaccounted filtering effect, such that you cannot assume progress just because a filtering effect exists.
Proteins do not have to be perfectly effective to work. And non-functional or semi-functional proteins are not necessarily detrimental to survival, thus having no effect on survivability. For example, suppose a primitive proto-bacteria had a duplication event and now two proto-genes are generating the same protein. This very well may have no effect on its ability to reproduce(and it very well could, too; there are no guarantees). However, now one of those copies can be subject to mutation without affecting the original protein. It may end up non-functional(so called "junk DNA"), it may end mutating and functioning slightly different from the original gene(like the many related proteins responsible for blood clotting) or it may end up deleted at some point. In fact, if you want a good example of how proteins can evolve, look up the evolutionary history of blood clotting mechanisms.
Half a protein doesn't do what the full protein does. You want to claim every single half-protein or non-working protein is a survival advantage over not having one? (no bad consequences for non-functioning cellular components?) A significant enough survival advantage that the population is guaranteed to acquire the trait, 300 billion times?
Given that we share a large part of our genes with bacteria, roughly along the lines of 40%, then a lot of that took place rather rapidly. At a generation rate of 20 minutes and shooting for 40%(1.2 billion generations), that takes 937,000 years, roughly. Subtract that from 3.6 billion years, and you have a 40% human genome with 3.599 billion years left to generate the remaining 60%. The generations do get longer for multicellular organisms, but that is counter balanced by the development of sexual reproduction which speeds up the exchange of novel and complimentary genetic changes.
Again, for reference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome
Consider that bacteriums have genomes in the range of Mbs, while humans have a genome 3.2 Gbs, The genomes are different by orders of magnitude, so 40% gene similarity does not capture all the relevant details.
Do you believe that 3.1 Gbs of human genome is filler? If true, you should be able to irradiate and randomly mutate somewhere around 99% of a human's DNA sequence with no ill effect.
Let's look at it from the opposite side. We differ from chimpanzees by roughly 2% of our DNA, or 60 million base pairs. We diverged from their line about 6 million years ago. That's a rate of 10 base pair changes per year. Using that rate, we have a possible 5 billion base changes in the past 500 million years, which is roughly the age of fish. We only differ from fish by about 25% of our DNA, or 750 million base pairs. At that rate, there was enough time to evolve a human from a fish 6.6 times.
You assumed that human
You are the one switching topics. The fossil record clearly demonstrates the changes in lifeforms over billions of years. You refute that by appealing to a sine wave, with no justification for ignoring the evidence. Saying that you are ignorant is the kindest assumption.
Slashdot topic: Bird wing sizes changing near highway, evolution!
My point: Finch beak changed and is still changing; but not really example of evolution.
Your point: Fossils. You're ignorant. (topic change + name-calling)
You're appealing to a subjective interpreted history extrapolated from fossils, switching the topic away from a scientifically observed fact.
Scientific observations of Darwin's finches is that their beak sizes have continued to oscillate over the seasons. They are certainly an example of natural selection, but there is no evolutionary "progress" going on - unless you think "smaller beaks" just like previous finches is to be considered a "novel mutation" and progress towards some sort of new lifeform. If you graphed the change of their beak size over time, you'd probably find something that looks like a sin wave. Is change without net change a good example of evolution? Does evolution just mean change, any change?
Observations of Darwin's finches are scientific evidence, and at no point in this back and forth have you addressed my interpretation (large/small beaks is oscillation, not progress), which is itself a very relevant analog to the original topic.
If you want to ignore scientific evidence and analysis, that's your call.
Shorter wings, yes. Same organs, same brain, same pretty much every thing except wingspan. Less efficient flight, requires more energy.
touche
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
Is natural selection an algorithm that is "looking for" humans?
Nope. We are just a happy accident in the history of life.
That inheritance improves the odds slightly was not in question. The point was that there are other unaccounted forces (survival, environmental changes, luck) working against the unaccounted filtering effect, such that you cannot assume progress just because a filtering effect exists.
Given that the evidence supports the fact that this is in fact what happened, that assumption is more than justified.
Do you believe that 3.1 Gbs of human genome is filler? If true, you should be able to irradiate and randomly mutate somewhere around 99% of a human's DNA sequence with no ill effect.
See, this is where your simplified version gets you into trouble. Genes are added to genomes all the time, from gene copying mistakes to interspecies breeding to bacterial gene interchange to endogenous retroviruses. Entire chromosomes are sometimes duplicated. Random events are adding genetic material all the time, and natural selection is winnowing out the non-working combinations.
You assumed that humans evolved from chimpanzees, extrapolated that rate to the past, and found it reasonable that humans evolved from chimpanzees and fish. That's circular reasoning.
Nope. I demonstrated that, if evolutionary theory is true, the rate of change as demonstrated by our closest living relatives is consistent with the amount of time that change had to have happened, which is precisely what you are denying.
Can you support the assumed human mutation rate with a measured human mutation rate?
Sure. Start here:
The average mutation rate was estimated to be ~2.5 × 108 mutations per nucleotide site or 175 mutations per diploid genome per generation
6 million years divided by an average generation time(20 years for humans, 15 for chimpanzees, so 17.5 average for both species) gives us 342,857 generations. This yields 59,999,975 mutations.
Can we reverse engineer all those intermediate organisms? (Can't do that now, but should be possible if evolution is true!)
Can we extrapolate the likely form and location of the intermediate organisms? Sure. That's how we discovered Tiktaalik, for example. The researchers worked from an understanding of the development of the tetrapods and the population distribution in the fossil records and predicted that they would find a proto-tetrapod in Devonian strata in Canada. And they did. As for whether they can be recreated exactly, then no, and there is no reason to expect it to be possible at all. We can compare related organisms to determine which genes were likely conserved or developed independently. That can get us in the ballpark(which is why we can infer a lot about intermediate species), but recreating an entire extinct genome is likely never going to be possible.
Filters always remove information. At best, with an analog signal carrying digital encoded information, you can remove the noise without harming the information.
Hey, you are almost there! Congrats!
Filters can be a part of an overall creative process
Bingo! That's what I was saying!
A random string generator has the potential to "write" a novel.
Indeed. And I have generated the first paragraph of "Romeo & Julliette" using one that starts with a small string of random gibberish and uses random mutations and selection to generate it. Of course, the couplet is just a model used to represent a theoretical genome which is fit to survive in a particular environment.
Having solved that simpler problem, does
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
Maybe I am crazy, but
"And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters. And God said, 'Let there be light,' and there was light."
sounds a lot like the Big Bang. The Infinitesimal giving rise to the Infinite sounds exactly like the work of a masterful God to me.
Right. What is the alternative, add up a lot of small changes and then not see any change? Australopithecus came down from the trees, got longer legs, shorter arms, better vision, upright posture, wider pelvis, smaller teeth and a larger brain. Is it still an Australopithecus, or is it now a Homo Habilis? I fail to see any logic in your statement, these small changes have added up to a new animal.
Why did you ignore this? Is it because it doesn't fit your "all changes are minimal," sine wave theory? Australopithecus is not just a variation of humans. We don't vacillate between those extremes. Why are you ignoring the thousands of examples out there of biological change over time in favor of your static vision of species?
This is why I bandied the term "ignorant" around. Either you are not aware of the numerous examples of cumulative changes resulting in new species, or you are. One is a form of ignorance, which is blameless and can be easily remedied. The other is a rejection of the evidence, and, given the fact that you are a literate human with access to the Internet for research, is far more problematic. I apologize for being dismissive, but I am really trying to get you to justify your position that changes over time cannot add up to speciation events.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
And none of this means you can't believe in Evolution. Because nowhere in the Bible, that I am aware of, does it say that nothing an change.
See, this is where your simplified version gets you into trouble. Genes are added to genomes all the time, from gene copying mistakes to interspecies breeding to bacterial gene interchange to endogenous retroviruses. Entire chromosomes are sometimes duplicated. Random events are adding genetic material all the time, and natural selection is winnowing out the non-working combinations.
"All the time" ... Observed how?
Nope. I demonstrated that, if evolutionary theory is true, the rate of change as demonstrated by our closest living relatives is consistent with the amount of time that change had to have happened, which is precisely what you are denying.
Danger, Will Robinson.
"If evolutionary theory is assumed to be true, I shall extrapolate a pattern that I shall then claim proves evolutionary theory to be true."
Sure. Start here:
"We investigated the rate and pattern of mutations at the nucleotide level by comparing pseudogenes in humans and chimpanzees to (i) provide an estimate of the average mutation rate per nucleotide"
In short, no, human mutation rate was not measured. They compared human and chimp genomes, assumed the difference is due to evolution and then treated that difference as the human mutation rate using dates derived from evolutionary assumptions. Exactly what you just said before in summary, which I challenged for being circular when used as a rebuttal to my challenge.
You plugged the estimated mutation rate into the problem and claim vindication when it matches evolution. That you seem to think this is amazingly convincing evidence for evolution is pathetic. Do I need to spell out why circular reasoning is not valid?
Can we extrapolate the likely form and location of the intermediate organisms? Sure. That's how we discovered Tiktaalik, for example. ..
Read this and question for a moment the fallibility of human imagination.
http://io9.com/5965389/a-book-that-will-make-you-question-everything-you-know-about-dinosaurs
Then look at these two pictures and tell me why the concept art is "scientific" as opposed to "fantasy".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tiktaalik_skull_front.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tiktaalik_BW.jpg
. As for whether they can be recreated exactly, then no, and there is no reason to expect it to be possible at all.
See, if evolution is true, then there's no reason why we can't one day reverse engineer DNA completely (hey, it's random and we're semi-intelligent). At that point in time, we can create any arbitrary DNA sequence, and should be able to reconstruct the intermediate life forms from the DNA sequences. If it happened once by lucky circumstances, we can do it again, intentionally.
Natural selection works on a higher level, so to speak. Genes live or die in the organisms which they build. So, while the filters represent a high level view of how natural selection works, it would take a few more steps to make it more realistic: interpreting the "genome," building an "organism" from that genome and allowing it to compete in a simulated environment. This is, coincidentally, one of my current personal projects.
In short, there's nothing in natural selection that can select against specific base pair mutations. Natural selection can't select for the future, it only compares against now.
OK, let's go with that, noting that we are ignoring a large part of the organisms on earth. Most catastrophic genetic combinations are selecting against before birth.
Not by natural selection based on overall fitness, but by highly specific genetic "error-check" systems (against what reference?). Now how did natural selection work *before* that system evolve
Why did you ignore this? Is it because it doesn't fit your "all changes are minimal," sine wave theory? Australopithecus is not just a variation of humans. We don't vacillate between those extremes. Why are you ignoring the thousands of examples out there of biological change over time in favor of your static vision of species?
When was that observed?
Oh, it wasn't? You're extrapolating based on fossil evidence? That's nice.
This is why I bandied the term "ignorant" around. Either you are not aware of the numerous examples of cumulative changes resulting in new species, or you are. One is a form of ignorance, which is blameless and can be easily remedied. The other is a rejection of the evidence, and, given the fact that you are a literate human with access to the Internet for research, is far more problematic. I apologize for being dismissive, but I am really trying to get you to justify your position that changes over time cannot add up to speciation events.
You still aren't talking about the finches. Did you concede that as a point?
If you're going to concede the finches, which of those other "numerous" examples are based on observation of live specimens, and which are extrapolations from fossil records?
Do you think it is useful for the sake of scientific observation to distinguish between "evolution" that results in no change, as opposed to "evolution" that results in brand new organisms? Is it impossible to distinguish between the two, even though Darwin's finches are still finches after hundreds of years of "evolving"? Do you prefer a scientific lexicon that deliberately obfuscates different activity by using the same word in different senses?
"All the time" ... Observed how?
Examples include trisomy, insertions and gene duplication.
In short, no, human mutation rate was not measured. They compared human and chimp genomes, assumed the difference is due to evolution and then treated that difference as the human mutation rate using dates derived from evolutionary assumptions. Exactly what you just said before in summary, which I challenged for being circular when used as a rebuttal to my challenge.
Point taken. So, start here, then(a good overview of precisely the mistake I made). The lowest estimated mutation rate based simply upon human genomes is 1.0 x 10-8 per site per generation. Still the same order of magnitude, so it won't have a substantial effect on my point.
Read this and question for a moment the fallibility of human imagination.
And I suggest you read some of the comments by actual paleotologists on that page.
Then look at these two pictures and tell me why the concept art is "scientific" as opposed to "fantasy"
Because we also have fossils of the related species as well, which gives us a good idea of how the intermediate species will look. But, then, judging by your later comments, you've already decided that physiology can't be derived from fossil records, so I wouldn't expect it to matter.
See, if evolution is true, then there's no reason why we can't one day reverse engineer DNA completely (hey, it's random and we're semi-intelligent). At that point in time, we can create any arbitrary DNA sequence, and should be able to reconstruct the intermediate life forms from the DNA sequences. If it happened once by lucky circumstances, we can do it again, intentionally.
And why would you assume that? We could create a lookalike, but we will never know if we got all of the genes correct.
In short, there's nothing in natural selection that can select against specific base pair mutations. Natural selection can't select for the future, it only compares against now.
Of course.
Not by natural selection based on overall fitness, but by highly specific genetic "error-check" systems (against what reference?).
What are you talking about? I am talking about death. An organism with a broken metabolism won't survive past a single cell stage. An organism lacking cellular adhesion would not survive past that stage. No "reference" involved at all. Things that are broken just die.
Now how did natural selection work *before* that system evolved into existence, and where is your evidence that life works without it? (Even "basic" bacteria have this functionality)
Early life would have had more errors in transcription, which is exactly what we would expect. Later, as gene expression became more robust and complicated, selection pressure would increase for less error prone mechanisms.
It was a starting point to illustrate the enormity of the problem
And, as I pointed out, you ignored the reality of the theory in order to artificially inflate the problem.
This is part of why I don't consider evolutionary theory to be "solid scientific fact" as you do - it fails to do rigorous mathematical modeling. If it is so plausible, there should be math that puts my rough model to shame; and yet I haven't seen anything that attempts to capture the probabilities involved or how evolution comfortably meets the challenge.
That is because you are starting off from a bad theoretical foundation and expecting th
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
When was that observed? Oh, it wasn't? You're extrapolating based on fossil evidence? That's nice.
Fossil evidence, DNA evidence, geological evidence. You know, converging lines of evidence.
You still aren't talking about the finches. Did you concede that as a point?
Nope. Why would I? You have simply rehashed an old creationist canard which is usually presented to assert that microeveolution occurs while macroevolution does not. It's also usually presented as an example of Biblical "kinds." It is certainly an example of evolution. Whether it is an example of complete speciation is another question, but it has no bearing on the larger issue.
If you're going to concede the finches, which of those other "numerous" examples are based on observation of live specimens, and which are extrapolations from fossil records?
We have exactly two categories of specimens to examine: live and dead. The expectation that we are going to see vast evolutionary leaps in real time is part of this distorted view of evolution that you are pushing. It doesn't correspond to reality or to the theory of evolution. You can choose to ignore evidence from fossils and DNA comparisons all you like. It's just dishonest.
Do you think it is useful for the sake of scientific observation to distinguish between "evolution" that results in no change, as opposed to "evolution" that results in brand new organisms?
All evolution, by definition, results in change. So, no, it's not a useful distinction. It's just an attempt to evade the obvious conclusions of evolutionary theory.
s it impossible to distinguish between the two, even though Darwin's finches are still finches after hundreds of years of "evolving"?
I'm tempted to rescind my prior apology. Are you really so obtuse that you think that we should expect some drastic evolutionary change in those finches in hundreds of years?
Do you prefer a scientific lexicon that deliberately obfuscates different activity by using the same word in different senses?
No, I prefer honesty in approaching science and evidence, not deliberate obfuscation to support creationism.
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
Fossil evidence, DNA evidence, geological evidence. You know, converging lines of evidence.
So you can bring those to bear on the subject of finches and cliff swallows? Please, do cite away.
Nope. Why would I? You have simply rehashed an old creationist canard which is usually presented to assert that microeveolution occurs while macroevolution does not. It's also usually presented as an example of Biblical "kinds." It is certainly an example of evolution. Whether it is an example of complete speciation is another question, but it has no bearing on the larger issue.
So if a population oscillates between two dominant phenotypes (small beak/big beak; short wings/long wings), you are satisfied that this is an example of evolution even if there are no net changes to the organism's genome?
And you find that this is strong evidence that over a time period of millions/billions of years, that this oscillation will result in an entirely different animal?
I'm tempted to rescind my prior apology. Are you really so obtuse that you think that we should expect some drastic evolutionary change in those finches in hundreds of years?
If there is no net change over hundreds of years, how do you that into non-zero net change over millions of years?
No, I prefer honesty in approaching science and evidence, not deliberate obfuscation to support creationism.
We can both accuse each other of obfuscation, but I haven't relied on accusations of dishonesty and ignorance. I don't find it useful to slap "evolution" on any type of change, when the character of the change is entirely different. Does a child "evolve" into an adult?
So you can bring those to bear on the subject of finches and cliff swallows? Please, do cite away.
No, I bring those to bear on the larger issue of evolution.
So if a population oscillates between two dominant phenotypes (small beak/big beak; short wings/long wings), you are satisfied that this is an example of evolution even if there are no net changes to the organism's genome?
If that trait is being passed on to offspring, then yes, it is. In the case of Darwin's finches, you have distinct species(little to no interbreeding) which inhabit different niches and which display morphological differences which are readily apparent. You can find similar examples in ring species. The cliff swallows are indeed evolution(provided that the traits are indeed being passed on to offspring), but this is not a speciation event(at least, not yet).
And you find that this is strong evidence that over a time period of millions/billions of years, that this oscillation will result in an entirely different animal?
Since this is couched within the larger body of evidence regarding evolution, certainly. As for what type of animal the decendents of those birds will be, it all depends on the variety of environmental pressures which are exerted upon the species. In a few million years, those swallows may well give rise to flightless sea birds. In a few million years, invasive species in the Galapagos Islands may lead to the evolution of larger meat eating finches. Genetic drift may lead to something entirely unexpected. And they may all just go extinct, leaving some other species to adapt and fill their respective niches. It would take the ability to see the future to know how environmental pressures are going to affect their genomes in next few million years.
If there is no net change over hundreds of years, how do you that into non-zero net change over millions of years?
I said drastic evolutionary change. Those species are indeed ungoing evolution right now. Every species is. The process runs on geological time. We can chart genetic change, but you have already made it clear that you hold to the creationist idea of there being different "types" of evolution. You won't be satisfied by anything short of a major morphological change happening in your lifetime. Do you also dismiss plate tectonics because mountains don't spring up over the course of a human lifetime?
We can both accuse each other of obfuscation, but I haven't relied on accusations of dishonesty and ignorance.
Good for you. Having cornered many creationists into finally admitting their a priori assumptions, I no longer have the patience to assume that someone who is presenting the same old arguments is doing so in good faith.
I don't find it useful to slap "evolution" on any type of change, when the character of the change is entirely different.
The character is not different. That's the point.
Does a child "evolve" into an adult?
Is a child a population?
All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
Examples include trisomy, insertions and gene duplication.
Trisomy: "Trisomies can occur with any chromosome, but often result in miscarriage"
Insertions: "Insertions can be particularly hazardous if ..."
Gene duplication: "Gene duplication doesn't necessarily constitute a lasting change in a species' genome. In fact, such changes often don't last past the initial host organism"
Clearly evolutionary progress is inevitable.
Point taken. So, start here, then(a good overview of precisely the mistake I made). The lowest estimated mutation rate based simply upon human genomes is 1.0 x 10-8 per site per generation. Still the same order of magnitude, so it won't have a substantial effect on my point.
So estimate 30 million mutations over 6 million years - but not every mutation is an improvement - what is the ratio of "good" to "bad" mutations?
See, if evolution is true, then there's no reason why we can't one day reverse engineer DNA completely (hey, it's random and we're semi-intelligent). At that point in time, we can create any arbitrary DNA sequence, and should be able to reconstruct the intermediate life forms from the DNA sequences. If it happened once by lucky circumstances, we can do it again, intentionally.
And why would you assume that? We could create a lookalike, but we will never know if we got all of the genes correct.
The reason that's important to verify is that we don't know that you can generate a continuous line of organisms from bacteria to human with incremental changes.
In the CS world, the equivalent would be to mutate your way from DOS to Win8 with random bit flips. It may be possible, but it is tedious and not very efficient.
If it turns out that you need to make discrete million base pair jumps between viable species, you put a stake into the heart of gradual evolution. (Leaving you with punctuated equilibrium, hoping for consecutive lottery wins)
What are you talking about? I am talking about death. An organism with a broken metabolism won't survive past a single cell stage. An organism lacking cellular adhesion would not survive past that stage. No "reference" involved at all. Things that are broken just die.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programmed_cell_death
Early life would have had more errors in transcription, which is exactly what we would expect. Later, as gene expression became more robust and complicated, selection pressure would increase for less error prone mechanisms.
You're giving me a headache with the repeated circular reasoning. "I expect this, which is what I would expect". That's nice, but that's not evidence.
That is because you are starting off from a bad theoretical foundation and expecting the theory to match up to that.
Your dogmatic faith in evolution is noted. There is no reason why there cannot be a solid mathematical model for evolutionary probabilities. It involves many large numbers which places it solidly in the realm of statistics.
"Take away some of the proof, and all you have left is evidence that I personally disagree with."
If all the remainder of your evidence is fossil interpretation, then yeah, you're not even doing science any more.
If you're trying to recreate the past, you're performing forensics to discover history. What happened 200 million years ago is not something you determine with control groups and scientific experiments. You can collect scientific evidence to support a historical theory, but one does not deal with "proofs" in history. ("proofs" is the realm of logic and math)
Evolution is defined in biology as a change in the frequency of gene alleles in a population over time. Learn this and remember it. If you want to argue against evolution, that is the assertion you must refute.
I am arguing against the part of evolution that claims that bacteria can be incrementally improved by random mutation into a human being.
Evolutionary proponents don't help the issue by deliberately obfuscating the word to mean any type of generational change observed in biology. I can describe the difference with words, why do we need to obfuscate the vocabulary to prevent people from recognizing the distinction?
In the case of the finches, it entirely depends on which genes you're considering and the length of the observation. It does no good to just say "there is no net change" without specifying a time period.
I don't need to specify a time period. I only need to show that a sin wave does not scale with time. As time goes to infinity, a sin wave value stays within [-1, 1]. Contrast that to a linear, exponential, or even square root function, where value->infinity as t->infinity.
To use your sine wave example, if you look at it through 1 cycle or n cycles, you see no net change. If you look at it through half a cycle, you see a big change.
If you then extrapolate that quarter cycle observation to say that you will see an even bigger change over 1 cycles or 20 cycles, you'd be wrong. The net change you can have in a oscillating function is bounded. This does not help a bacteria evolve into a human being, which is the claim I dispute.
If evolution just means "change", I'm an "evolutionist", I just find that it doesn't scale as well as commonly believed.
No, I bring those to bear on the larger issue of evolution.
Which was not the original topic. The topic was whether the examples of "natural selection evolution" support that "larger issue of evolution".
For the sake of argument, let's say that the larger issue of evolution is 100% correct. Do cliff swallows and finches oscillating between phenotypes provide the type of change that will result in evolutionary "progress"? Note that no genetic testing has been performed here, and for all we know, the birds develop their beak/wings differently depending on food availability. (like how current generations are taller than previous generations due to better nutrition)
I believe your topic switch to the broader issue of evolution has already conceded that point - it's "No". You didn't make it explicit, but you're saying, "No, it doesn't, but we can believe that evolution happened in the past because of fossils and other evidence!" In other words, this isn't strong evidence for evolution, but there's other strong evidence!
Thank you for sharing your faith that evolution happened, but I don't find it relevant to the discussion. Science isn't about dogma, it's about reliable processes and repeatable observations.
You can test a process against a reference - put in known inputs and see if you get the expected outputs. Unfortunately, belief in evolution is a horrible litmus test for one's scientific ability. It's a subjective belief in a provisional history - how is historical belief a prereq for scientific observation and experimentation? It isn't. Yet that's what you have used when you call me ignorant for not professing evolutionary faith.
I hope our discussion on various evolutionary and scientific concepts has demonstrated that I am not ignorant. Mistaken and wrong, perhaps, but definitely not ignorant. Are you willing to incorporate that observation into your understanding, or does your evolutionary faith require you denounce me as a heretic against Science regardless of my ability or argument? Your call.
Good for you. Having cornered many creationists into finally admitting their a priori assumptions, I no longer have the patience to assume that someone who is presenting the same old arguments is doing so in good faith.
Having seen the logical fallacies you've flung against my points, I have little faith that you actually have answers to those "same old arguments". But that's okay, because I'm not threatened by the existence of an opposing viewpoint.