Consumers Not Impressed With 3D Printing
Lucas123 (935744) writes "Putting a 3D printer beside the coffee maker in every home, as some manufacturers hope will happen someday, is a long ways from reality as consumers today still don't understand how the technology will benefit them, according to a new study. The study, by Juniper Research, states that part of the problem is that killer applications with the appropriate eco-system of software, apps and materials have yet to be identified and communicated to potential users. And, even though HP has announced its intention to enter the 3D printing space (possibly this fall) a massive, mainstream corporation isn't likely to change the market."
Whining about lack of software as a roadblock to mass adoption of home 3D printing is absurd at this point in time.
Inexpensive 3D printing is still barely more than a toy for hobbyists. I have one (mendlemax 2), and while I love playing with it, I recognize it for what it is.
The path forward as I see it for home 3D printing is:
- spend a long damn time in the hobbyist domain
- eventually capabilities will hit a point where actual useful products can be produced, but it will still be way more effort to do so than to buy the equivilant mass-produced item.
- small niche markets will open up offering custom things and replacement parts that are no long available. I forsee a long period of time where 3D printing is practical, but at a small business level rather than a home level. The "bring your model down to staples" phase if you will.
- eventually some people will start using these services regularily and start dreaming of having one at home
- this is when 3D printing at home really takes off
This is however so far away that I may not be alive to see it. When the time comes, I'm sure someone will whip up a slick UI...
It's the same deal with photo printers. It's much easier and cheaper to go down to Walmart or Costco when you need to print out your photos and get them to use their professional quality machines to do the job. I think that 3D printers will end up in the same sport. You'll go down to Walmart, and get them to print out an item for you. You'll only need it maybe 5 times a year, so there's no point in owning your own 3D printer. There's already services where you can send a 3D file and somebody will print it out and ship it to you.
Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
I'm in agreement. I don't really need more small plastic crap around my house. I'm way more interested in ShopBot style CNC where you can actually build useful things like furniture, etc.
Working the 3d printer booth would probably be the only job at a Walmart retail location that I would ever consider.
Would make a nice job for young people that are aspiring to some line of tech work.
if they could create a 2D printer that wasn't a crotchety piece of shit, then people would be more excited. I don't look forward to trying to unjam some 3D printer nozzles full of melted plastic.
The way this technology was presented to "The Public" a few years ago, it sounded like we would soon be buying stuff online and printing it at home. For those of us who recognize it for what it is--basically just a CNC hot-glue gun--it's still pretty impressive. But it's nowhere near the game-changer it was said to be. It'll happen, but it's going to take time for the software and chemical engineers to work out the wrinkles.
“If I'd asked my customers what they wanted, they'd have said a faster horse.” – Henry Ford
Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
Most people weren't impressed with the first home computers, either, and couldn't see a need for one. It'll take time, better and cheaper technology, and more known use cases. Look how long it took us to get from the AT and XT and Apple II and "you can use it for recipes and Oregon Trail!" to the iPad, Facebook, and Skype.
As soon as people learn that they can print a new battery cover for a remote control, or replace a small broken part of a kid's favorite toy, or some amazing thing no one has yet thought of, they'll start picking up. Personally, I can't wait. (I mean, I can wait, and I am waiting, but I'm really looking forward to having one and I already have a bunch of things in mind for when I get one. Just waiting for them to be a bit cheaper.)
The same way you download and print random cute, funny, or pretty pictures, imagine being able to download and print random neat stuff like this. (Sample I saw from a Makerbot in a Microsoft store.)
Dear Slashdot: next time you want to mess with the site, add a rich-text editor for comments.
Load file.
Press print.
Yeah, real inspiration.
"Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
Take my money now!
My friend's company just got a multi-million dollar 19-axis robot for carving custom wood. They're the only ones in America with one that does specifically what they do. It has already paid for itself in 3 years. If they didn't work with wood and did prototypes or CNC or something more 3d printer friendly, dropping a few thousand on a top of the line 3D printer would be no problem. A shipment of materials costs more than that. The staff hours carving custom parts out of plastic alone would pay for it. So I'd say they need to target businesses first, use the funds to make the technology much better, THEN go cheap and target the residential customers with even lower priced machines.
3-D is ok for a one-off prototype. But who needs a $1000 device that takes hours to print a happy meal toy?
Raj and Howard in front of a 3d printer:
Raj: Ooh. I, I think it's done.
(Opens door to printer)
Raj: It worked! We printed a whistle.
Howard: Amazing. You realize these things go for 25 cents a pop at a party store.
Raj: And we made it in only three hours!
We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
I think that the problem is that most people are using 3D printers now are engineers making prototype parts for machinery, which doesn't interest the mainstream.
Now, if you post a bunch of 3D printer template files for sex toys... now you'll get the mainstream's attention!
Wow... I almost see the great unwashed masses heading to Target now for "That there plastic dildo maker" Janet told me about :)
Of course consumers are not excited. The excitement of a 3d printer isn't creating a duplicate plastic part that you could purchase in a store for 30 cents. 3D printers are exciting to people who create their own stuff: creators. There's a fundamental cultural divide between creators and consumers: tablets and for consumers, laptops and desktops are for creators. Saying that consumer's aren't ready for 3d printers is like saying consumers aren't ready for a new programming language. Of course they aren't, they don't care. Consumers get excited about a new toy (maybe even one designed on a 3d printer, by a creator) or a new app or game (built in a programming language by a creator).
They aren't us. Wishing won't make it so.
Right now we have a consumer culture that doesn't really teach people to make and repair their own things (which is what a 3D printing would mostly be useful for). So while a 3D printer might someday be useful for a mechanic who needs to make car parts or a shoe salesmen who needs to make a custom shoe, most people are still expecting to go to someone else to get those things. As the technology improves and can make more things (metal parts, rubber, glass, composites) and people get more used to it, we may see the market for the technology grow, assuming it isn't outlawed first.
Lets not forget that while most of the orders will be simple extra-cheap toys or minor repair parts, there will be dicks. I mean that both in the sense of 'person who drops off an order and never picks it up/pays for it' and '3D printed sculptures of male sexual organs.' Often, the two will overlap.
Que the "Oh NOES! You can use them to make teh undetectable gunz!! The story at 10:00" local news teasers.
If you had a scanner and printer combined and could just hit a "replicate" button, you'd be on to something.
if you had a way to take the scan data and use that, then you'e really have something. Because then I can make cases for things by putting the thing in and doing a simple subtraction fro an extrusion and I'd get a mating surface. It would provide a pragmatic way to obtain dimensions, rather than busting out rulers and using trial and error.
Slashdot's rate-of-post filter: Preventing you from posting too many great ideas at once.
People can do regular photo printers because they can make photos. They have documents because they can create documents. There is all sorts of easy-to-use software out there that allows you to make up your own creation very easily without any real skill. To make shit on a 3D printer, first you have to plop down a thousand dollars for a crappy one. Then you have to go make a 3d model, which is way harder than snapping a picture or writing a word document or coming up with a quick flyer. Oh and then you have to spend tons of money on this really expensive powder and other compounds, and oh fuck it I'll just go buy a couple of toys from the store for cheaper. These are niche products.
I know people who toss the remote and buy new when the batteries wear out.
Unless it produces items with an idiot proof phone app which automatically are assembled and functional after printing, I can't see them using it. It better have a big "ink" tank because some people will buy a new printer when it goes empty...
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With 3D printers it is a bit more extreme...
How often do we really get stuff, Like from molded plastic?
If I had a 3d printer, I may print out some jig every few months... however for the most part it will sit there and be unused.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
First. During my day job I frequently work with a professional 3d printer. As a hobby I own a Reprap (hobby 3d printer). I would describe myself as a 3d print enthousiast. However I do not see 3d printers live up to the hype. the mantra: "Everyone will print everything in 3d from toys to funriture and a 3d steak". My argument is new technology does not replace everything else there was before. People still walk/ride bikes/take a car/boat/train because planes and helicopters excist (who would have thought)! My opinion: Some things will be printed such as unique small items and parts to repair stuff. And the 3d printed steak.. not going to happen. We already have vega-meat-replacement nobody calls them steaks. One example what it is usefull for. I am currently printing a lense cap holder to snap two caps on a strap. This needs to be printed because almost noboby had a 71mm and a 57mm cap. I print this because it will never excist as a product.
a) I can make plastic things that I desire
b) I can make plastic things for others
c) Brittle, fragile or low-resolution is not a replacement
The problem with (a) is that the average person is not an artist, so a "3D scanner" is still required and those have not surfaced despite their existance. So you're stuck with downloading 3D models that OTHER people have made.
(b) involves getting those files much in the same ways as early mp3's. There's no killer software/market for it other than stupid proof-of-concept firearms.
(c) ultimately means you can make LEGO-like bricks but not toothpicks. I can print off the parts for a 3D BJD(Ball Jointed Doll) but I still have to sand it down, and the parts will be hollow like a chocolate easter bunny otherwise it will be too heavy.
The two major failing points are resolution and durability. Nothing produced for the consumer will ever be durable enough. And without being able to dye the plastic in-situ it will largely be limited to making replacement parts for things people already have rather than making new things.
It's the same deal with photo printers. It's much easier and cheaper to go down to Walmart or Costco when you need to print out your photos and get them to use their professional quality machines to do the job. I think that 3D printers will end up in the same sport. You'll go down to Walmart, and get them to print out an item for you. You'll only need it maybe 5 times a year, so there's no point in owning your own 3D printer. There's already services where you can send a 3D file and somebody will print it out and ship it to you.
I think this is accurate. I'm not ready to buy a 3D printer but I'd drive over to The UPS Store and have them print something out.
Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines.
People order sex toys instead of going to retail stores. They prefer discrete packaging. Porn consumption took off when you didn't need to go out to an adult video store but could order at home. Digital cameras offered private erotic photos without taking them out to be developed.
I really doubt many people will want to collect their phallic shaped object from a pimply faced kid at a department store any more than they currently do free from libraries' 3D printers.
This summary just leads to an article that links to a report that they want you to buy which seems to say, "We don't know that people print sex toys." There's no indication consumers were consulted.
They need to look at the phallic shape of most Thingiverse uploads, re-write their white paper, and not charge £1750 to tell us they are ignorant of what they purport to write about.
Two of my co workers own such device. One of these devices is now located in a student office. First, it was assembled for a week. Second, auxiliary pieces where printed. Third, replacement parts where printed because the original pieces were sub standard. Fourth, little gimmicks, gifts, a statue from the Easter Island, and a 3D representation of a software system where created.
In summary, the tool never produced anything of value. Therefore, the stuff lacks a real use case in real life for real people.
In more than one way it will be the killer application, for not only will it be the application that makes everyone want one but also the application that will send a very, very powerful enemy onto 3D Printing: Printing car replacement parts.
Think of all those small and not so small little bits of plastic that you have to pay for through the nose when (or should I say, as soon as) they crack. On your car, your motorcycle, your various other appliances. But with car manufacturers this will not be very popular, as one can imagine. They make quite a bit of money with spare parts and the planned obsolescence of various parts that "just so happen" to wear and tear.
Now, with patents it's fairly easy to keep other manufacturer from ruining this very profitable market. It's way harder if every Joe Random can make their own parts, essentially for free.
If you thought the battle of content owners vs. file sharing was fierce, just think what the battle between car part manufacturers vs. part printers will be.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
The problem with most low-end extruder-type printers is that the engineering sucks. Most 3D printers work by trying to push a string with a gear (which jams or fails to feed), trying to weld a hot thing to a cold thing (which produces weak welds), trying to perform a process that is very temperature-sensitive without air temperature control (which makes the process fail frequently), and trying to weld a plastic that has too high a coefficient of expansion (which causes cracks during cooling).
Some of them then follow up by building a 3-axis motion system out of thin wood (too flexible), and using screw threads and nuts (too much play and backlash) instead of Acme lead screws and recirculating-ball nuts (like real CNC tools.) The end result is miserable process repeatability. This is why a big fraction of hobbyist-level 3D print jobs fail.
HP can probably solve those problems. Many of them are similar to the problems inkjet printers and pen plotters face. HP made both of those technologies work well. It wasn't easy. As one engineer pointed out, intuition fails you when trying to understand what's going on with ink at microdroplet size. HP had to use supercomputers to simulate the fluid dynamics before they got a print head that worked really well. (Of course, most of the engineers who did that were laid off years ago.) Many of the problems with 3D printers are cheaply solveable if you're making hundreds of thousands of them, not hundreds.
This is why we can't have nice things!
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
I can see why consumers aren't impressed with it.
My program manager convinced the higher ups in our company to spend the few grand to get a consumer grade 3D printer for our project. It took him weeks to get it set up and working correctly and the parts we made were not robust. But since it was for prototyping, the robustness didn't matter. So long as we got a few weeks of use out of them, it was cheaper and faster than sending the design files off to have fabricated.
But therein lies the problem with 3D printing in consumer space. Consumers don't *want* prototypes that only last a few weeks. Most people I know who have access to consumer 3D printers have built a few knickknacks they have on their shelves or charms they have on their key rings, and nothing else.
As for work, as our prototype designs started stabalizing and we needed more durable parts, they invested in a 3D printer that could work with several different materials (from soft rubber to hard plastics.) The catch? It was 70 grand.
tl;dr: 3D printing won't catch on among consumers until you can do more with it than print the OpenGL teapot and low-quality cell phone cases.* (And personally, I can't wait...)
* Yes, I do realize that a hobbyist can do a lot with a 3D printer. Most people aren't hobbyists.
I think if you want to sell them to people, you may need a useful consumer application first. I don't mean "application" like a software program. I mean a use-case.
Really, right now, 3D printing has been developed and marketed for hobbyists, even if the marketing people didn't know that's what they were doing. They've said, "Make your own designs and share them with others!" Admittedly, that's great stuff, but most people don't want to design their own products. They want their products to be designed by someone who knows what they're doing.
So if... Let's say Amazon released a 3D printer, along with an extensive library of real, useful products that could be printed out-of-the-box, without any difficult setup or calibration, then you might have a product. It would have to be something like, "I unpacked it from the box and plugged it in. And then the next day, I was shopping on Amazon, and along with the option to 'buy' the doodad I wanted for $11, there was an option to 'print' for free! I even got to select my color." That there is a workable business model. Sell the printers, sell the printing material, as well as selling the same products via mail-order for those who don't own a printer.
Of course, there's an obvious objection that occurs to me: Someone might say, "But can you really make a whole Amazon store of objects that can also be printed? Sure, I can print out some crappy little plastic toy, but nobody is going to bother to buy that same thing online!" Well there's your problem right there. If you can't come up with a large selection of real products that can be printed with these things, products which people would otherwise buy from retail/online stores, then the printer is not a consumer product. It's a more of a toy, or a machine that hobbyists can use to produce things, or businesses can use for prototyping or other purposes.
Seriously? I think the easier question is how often to we get stuff that isn't from molded plastic.
When I can pick up a dishwasher replacement part printed out by Whirlpool at my local kinko's and it costs less and is just as good as a cast one then 3D printing will have arrived. Till then it's for hobbyists and specialist.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
When the technology reaches the point where you can use a 3D printer to decorate a cake or make fancy chocolates by the dozen (hopefully, make both and other things besides) in a matter of minutes then a 3D printer will find space next to the coffee maker. At least in the sort of home where a gourmet kitchen would see daily use.
is laughing at you gullible, naive idiots. 3D printing a car or a house ... Jesus Christ what is wrong with our educational system when unmedicated adults believe such asinine bullshit?
I love how it's the *consumer's* fault for "not understanding"! Hey idiots, they understood JUST FINE, the market has spoken, now fuck off with your 3D hyperbole already.
Excellent point - fully agreed on photo printing, and I don't see why 3D printing would be any different.
Lets not forget that while most of the orders will be simple extra-cheap toys or minor repair parts, there will be dicks. I mean that both in the sense of 'person who drops off an order and never picks it up/pays for it' and '3D printed sculptures of male sexual organs.' Often, the two will overlap.
The first problem is easily solved, just make them pay when they drop off the file to be printed.
As for the second issue... well, as any of us who ever tried to have racy photos developed at Wal-Marx know, they'll probably refuse to print those. Or at least, refuse to give it to the customer (phrasing!)
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
It's the same deal with photo printers. It's much easier and cheaper to go down to Walmart or Costco when you need to print out your photos and get them to use their professional quality machines to do the job. I think that 3D printers will end up in the same sport. You'll go down to Walmart, and get them to print out an item for you. You'll only need it maybe 5 times a year, so there's no point in owning your own 3D printer. There's already services where you can send a 3D file and somebody will print it out and ship it to you.
I think this is accurate. I'm not ready to buy a 3D printer but I'd drive over to The UPS Store and have them print something out.
See, that's exactly why I'd like to acquire one - there's money to be made printing stuff for other people.
I wanna be the guy making that money.
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
hate new things and are afraid of anything that can compete with their monopolies, of course they're killing 3D printing. That is their way. They don't think. They only react out of fear.
That said, the maker community is not exactly small, and I think it's entirely reasonable for a device like this to be content with targeting that particular market, but in the end the maker community is still going to represent a fairly small fraction of the total number of appliance users out there. Trying to measure the appeal of a device that tends to appeal only to one relatvely tiny community by looking at the general population is not going to be indicative of how desirable that thing is for people who could actually use it.
Why does a 3d printer require mass consumer appeal to take off? What's wrong with it just being an appliance thats going to only most strongly appeal to somebody in the maker community?
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
Sex toys are usually made from special molded rubber compounds, arenâ(TM)t they? I assume they possess some kind of moisture-resistence or anti-fungal qualities. The sort of plastic coming out of cheap 3D printers does not look suitable for sliding in and out of human orifices.
Its a cool toy but its only that.
I think the reason 3D printing hasn't become more ubiquitous is that there really is no need to print much in the average home. I'm having a hard time trying to imagine what the average person would need to print often enough to justify buying a 3D printer for.
Even as a geek I'm having a hard time coming up with more than a couple of things I would ever like to print myself, especially given the resolution of hot plastic deposition technology still isn't upto printing very fine/small gears or other highly detailed parts.
For me at least, the current situation is that for the 2 or 3 things I would ever want to print, it still works out both cheaper and better print quality for me to pay someone with a commercial 3D printer to do a run for me, rather than buying my own makerbot or whatever.
Do you think you stand a change against established commercial locations like copy shops, which have already secured real estate in prime locations and built up a customer base? When digital photo printing became a thing, you started to see digital photo printers in drugstores and pre-existing photo stores, not new, specialized shops just for that.
What is interesting is that you consider moving to the party store cheap.
For me it takes a significant amount of time and effort(and gas for my car)moving there. I mean in the order of 30-45 minutes and one or two litters of gasoline of my car(at 1.5 euros/litter). My salary is over 60 euros/hour.
Anyway in 3 hours I can make exactly 12 whisles at the same time with my HBOT printer in the same plate. It can be faster although I have only tested 12 groups for a 3D group party meeting. I switch on the thing and go away as everything is automated including bed leveling.
Also it could be personalized in 30 seconds with the initial or the name of the person that receives the present, something you don't get with any 25 cents party store whistle.
We (the party group) create our own filament at 6eur/kilo.
As an engineer I could use and need those machines. In the future(5 years) there will be millions and everybody will be able to do the same things I do, cheaply and easily.
It is an error trying to think in 3D printers as being used for the thing that had been used until this day. This is like predicting 40 years ago that the computer you will hold in your hand will be used for statistical central planning, population census, and ballistic simulations(actually IBM believed in that).
The fact is that thousands of individuals design and collaborate over the Internet, with places like thingiverse or grabcad is going to change lots of things, like the PC did. E.g suddenly you can design a collaborative car like with Linux.
Here's the reason people aren't impressed... because it has little to no use for the common person. ... in business. Hobbyists love them... and they are indeed awesome for hobbies.
They can create a "bust of the week" sculpture. Or they can make some sh*tty plastic toys at home for their kids. It's got the same usefulness as computer controlled sewing machines. Those things can do some really awesome stuff these days.
There's a fantastic use for these
But they don't have much day to day utility.
Same with 3D printers.
Sorry guys... I *love* some of the amazing stuff you can do with 3D printers, but it won't ever get the kind of mainstream acceptance that you're thinking of.
That would have been the headline in the 70s. This is why consumers don't generally drive innovation, and why judging the prospects of a new technology before its had time to overcome some of its early weaknesses is premature.
For just under $2,500 you can buy a MB Replicator 2 or a Type A Series 1; both are decent quality, consumer ready 3D printers.
Both of them excel at slowly making 25 cent plastic parts in a number of hours for about a dime. There is no legit use for the consumer yet. It's still "look mom, I can print plastic spider I just downloaded from Thingiverse!"
Sure, there's designers, engineers and artists that use them. But for the average guy at home? No way.
Industrial 3D printers are available and widely used already. However, those machines do not usually extrude plastic filament and are not $300 toys ...
Like a milling machine or lathe, 3D printing is fundamentally a commercial tech with some hobby applications.
Why? The DECISIONS involved in design and production require a different skillset than "consumer".
In other news, eating donuts doesn't make you a fucking baker.
China is using 3D printers that can churn out 10 homes every 24 hours. These are cheap homes at $4,800 each for rural areas. But the point is that not only for social issues but also for making huge money 3D printing is the breakthrough we have all waited for. Corporations will either love or hate these devices as the social changes that will occur will eliminate many traditional factories and industries. I simply fail to see why people can't predict the changes that we will see. It is true that the tiny unit used by hobbyists have limits but larger, industrial scale units are amazing.
And, even though HP has announced its intention to enter the 3D printing space (possibly this fall)..
HP doesn't count anymore. From what I hear, they're more or less gutting themselves of any real technical talent in favor of offshoring and overseas outsourcing, outright firing long-time domestic engineers and workers just to improve their bottom line in the short term. Don't expect any innovation or high quality from a company that's hiring nobodies just barely out of school at best who can't find their ass with both hands.
Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
I believe that 3D printing will eventually be ubiquitous. However, we're talking about something that's at least a decade or two off because not only does the technology need to mature but a whole infrastructure needs to arise to support it. Certainly, these machines will need to evolve beyond spitting out relatively rough hunks of plastic. The suggestion that the lack of a "killer app" is a major stumbling block to adoption is almost comical.
The article seems written by someone who lacks fundamental understanding of the technology and so holds unrealistic expectations. Unfortunately, this mentality seems pervasive as far too many people believe that the instant they hear of a new technology it's ready for mass consumption.
The reality is that many consumers struggle to set up a mere ink jet. They muddle through applications like Word and PowerPoint, using a fraction of available functionality. They need to call an electrician to replace a light switch and AAA to mount a spare tire. In light of all that, what hope in hell do they have of manipulating a 3D model, preparing it for printing and then assembling it?
Some day, the technology will likely affect the lives of nearly everyone. But I can't imagine it will happen in the way some people seem to be envisioning it.
Print me a beer and pizza; THEN we are talkin'
Table-ized A.I.
Right. But apart from some kitchen stuff and toys, they tend to contain electronics, or at least metal parts.
What a home printer can print out the latest fashions, then it will take off. Like a designer's new suit? Pay the designer directly, download, print and now you've got the latest fashion. If I can print the suit for what it costs me to go to a tailor, or a little more, this is a viable model for home adoption, and you'll see the fashion conscious adopt it early, and fairly quick trickle down to the rest of the population.
Easy Online Role Playing Campaign Management
I'd rather have UPS deliver a properly moulded item. Better finish and stronger.
I am not a UPS or UPS Store employee. But this pilot program they are running is fantastic. One of the locations is in my hometown, and their service is just great.
Now when I heard about this, I was like "Why the heck is UPS Store getting involved in 3D Printing?" and it occurred to me: UPS' business is delivering products to individuals. Imagine now a guy living in Montana who comes up with a product idea that can be 3D printed. He doesn't need to worry about manufacturing or logistics to ship to his customers at all. Now he just signs up with UPS Store's service, and his customers order online. They're told their product will be ready at their local 3D printer in 5 hours, or tomorrow if they want it delivered to their home. Basically this kind of service wraps up the logistics of a small manufacturing business all in one; the manufacturing, the delivery, everything is improved, inexpensive and done with good service (UPS' service has been great in my experience).
I'm not so sure about a 3D printer in every home, but through a logistics company like UPS? This seems likely.
http://www.theupsstore.com/small-business-solutions/Pages/3D-printing.aspx
Do you think you stand a change against established commercial locations like copy shops, which have already secured real estate in prime locations and built up a customer base?
Yes. People do it every day.
For example, my in-laws opened up a gun shop 2 years ago, and they just opened a second location late last year; their sales volumes increase monthly, despite the fact that the same customers they service could just as easily go 2 blocks down the road and buy the same guns from Wal-Marx.
When digital photo printing became a thing, you started to see digital photo printers in drugstores and pre-existing photo stores, not new, specialized shops just for that.
10 - 20 years from now that may be an accurate representation of 3D printing, but considering the complexity of creating precise, repeatable 3D prints, I'd say today's environment in that field is more equivalent to regular photo printing in its infancy - back in those days, you either set up your own dark room, or took your film to one of the boutique stores that specialized in photo development.
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
Anyone who has used a 3D printer (I have a RepRap style one) knows that the killer app is rapid prototyping. Lots of people already use 3D printers to print out prototypes of parts to test them out or focus group them before sending them to production. You pretty much *have* to be a designer to be able to make use of a 3D printer right now, and I'm sorry but 3D CAD software has come a long way but it's too expensive and complicated for a home user. You'd need to come up with a Tony Stark-like CAD system for under $100 before it'll be ready for home use. Meanwhile, those of us who know our way around a CAD program are quite happy with our 3D printers, thank you very much.
"I have never let my schooling interfere with my education." - Mark Twain
For an engineer you certainly are clueless.
Most people don't make 60 EUR/hour.
Most people aren't going to drive to a party store and back just for a whistle.
The math you're using is the same faulty math Fred Hoyle used in is argument against evolution.
Fail.
It's the same deal with photo printers. It's much easier and cheaper to go down to Walmart or Costco when you need to print out your photos and get them to use their professional quality machines to do the job. I think that 3D printers will end up in the same sport. You'll go down to Walmart, and get them to print out an item for you. You'll only need it maybe 5 times a year, so there's no point in owning your own 3D printer. There's already services where you can send a 3D file and somebody will print it out and ship it to you.
I think this is accurate. I'm not ready to buy a 3D printer but I'd drive over to The UPS Store and have them print something out.
See, that's exactly why I'd like to acquire one - there's money to be made printing stuff for other people.
I wanna be the guy making that money.
There are web sites where you can find folks nearby with 3D printers and their costs. There were half a dozen within 10 or so miles. For me, though, that's not how I want to transact business.
Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines.
Until I can print something meaningful, like a house or a car or a TV or a pair of shoes, I'm not interested. I don't need trinkets.
Full disclosure: I'm in the process of getting my 3D finished up.
No, I don't think that 3D printers will be ubiquitous as computers, and cell phones, but I don't think they'll be a rarity either...eventually. They fill a niche but I think niche could be very large one day.
How many times have you broke something and wish you could replace it without having to buy a whole new item?
How many times have you needed a project box for something you're building and it wasn't quite the right configuration?
How many times have you wished you had some type of nicknack but you didn't have the ability to produce it?
All the above apply to me, as well as to the people I know that also have 3D printers. Maybe none of the above apply to you. But I bet you or someone you know would love to be able to create a custom cell phone case though. Or a special someone might like a lithopane of a sentimental photo. Or to help a child learn about physics and mechanical advantages with some custom gears.
Yes, you have valid uses. But those uses all fall under the hobbyist or creator category. Nobody is saying there is no use in those markets. The article and discussion is about consumer use of 3d printing, and so far there is no use case for that at all. Yes, it would be nice to replace a broken battery cover for a remote, but not at the cost of 3D printer, the associated materials, and most importantly, a place for it.
If I was still into RC cars I could see how having a 3D printer would be nice. The thing is though, I'd likely have to take apart my entire car and for each plastic part I would need to scan it into a local library of things to print. This would allow me to print off a spare part on the spot, do the fix, and get back racing with my friends at the track.
Here is the thing. The people that would consider a 3d printer for making parts would likely already be a few grand into the RC hobby. They'd still have to do a serious cost analysis on when exactly the break even point occurs for the cost of the 3rd printer vs just buying a slew of spare parts at the hobby store or online.
I would say the hobby stores could do great with this, but I think a lot of them are some how considered "pro shops" in order to sell the cars and parts. If it's not illegal, it would most definitely be a breach of contract with the manufacturer.
Either way, until they develop some awesome "sneed" that only a 3d printer can create for me, I'll probably not find a sold need as a casual hobbyist.
Would you be willing to drive to Joe's 3D printing service, LLC ?
There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
and built it from surplus machine parts, and I don't know what the average consumer would do with the thing. It's great for people like me who can use it to make parts for other stuff that they make, but what does the average Joe make or need to make? Why would the average Joe want to go to the trouble of learning CAD software and the intricacies of operating and getting quality prints out of a 3D printer? No, we are a long way from 3D printers becoming household items.
Both are way too early in their incarnations.
We're developing methods for use in medicine and engineering and architecture here at the UW to provide "spines" or "fibers" to make 3D printing stronger, to use biomaterials for compostable furniture, but it's just starting out. It's like when we started growing livers and other materials. Each step builds on the next.
Same for google glass. Sounds great, but it's too heavy, even after they downsized the battery and the whole invasive aspect freaks everyone out. There are methods to fix that - beeps and LED flashes when you record, using bio-electromechanical contact lenses that get their power from the eye, hearing aid upgrades or add ons for headphones that make it appear more functional, getting rid of the annoying jerks and the dependency on other devices.
those will come with time. I remember getting one of the early Rio MP3 players - a pale imitation of the later iPod mini.
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It will probably remain a niche tool for quite some time, like a drill press or a table saw. Not every house needs one of those.
It's the same deal with photo printers. It's much easier and cheaper to go down to Walmart or Costco when you need to print out your photos and get them to use their professional quality machines to do the job. I think that 3D printers will end up in the same sport. You'll go down to Walmart, and get them to print out an item for you. You'll only need it maybe 5 times a year, so there's no point in owning your own 3D printer. There's already services where you can send a 3D file and somebody will print it out and ship it to you.
I think this is accurate. I'm not ready to buy a 3D printer but I'd drive over to The UPS Store and have them print something out.
See, that's exactly why I'd like to acquire one - there's money to be made printing stuff for other people.
I wanna be the guy making that money.
There are web sites where you can find folks nearby with 3D printers and their costs. There were half a dozen within 10 or so miles. For me, though, that's not how I want to transact business.
Somebody set up a "quick fabrication shop" in a commercial center near my house... I haven't stopped by yet, but from the outside their storefront seems just as inviting as the next small retailer.
Just like every other new industry throughout human history, it's going to take some time before 3D printing, either self-done or outsourced, is ready for mass adoption.
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
These machines are for people who want to build new stuff. They're tools for machinists and others who want to work with wood, plastic or metal. People who have workshop in their garage. i.e. They're tools for people who know they need them. Furthermore, because they're the current "in" thing, they're being used in instances where a CNC milling machine would have been far more appropriate. This stupid crap with 3-D printed guns, for instance.
soylentnews.org
And while you might be able to use the 3D printer to replace the remote battery cover, you couldn't use it to replace the remote.
That's the thing that confuses me. Enthusiasts are saying that 3D printing is going to be super ubiquitous, and everybody is going to have 3D printers, but... to do what? Nearly all the examples they give are stuff that only hobbyists will want to do. When I think of items that I use on a day-to-day basis that could be entirely produced using a 3D printer, about the only thing I can think of is maybe a plastic spoon... and I can buy tons of those at the dollar store very cheaply.
Almost anything that I, as a non-hobbyist consumer, might want to 3D print, has embedded electronics and microcontrollers that probably won't be 3D printable for a very long time, if ever (you might 3D print circuits, but how about a capacitor? Or a resistor? Or a controller? Or a battery?).
Even for completely non-electronic stuff that would require absolutely no extra components/parts (because you're not printing a metal spring or rubber grip with your one-click consumer 3D printer), 3D printing it would require a bunch of assembly and most people don't want to bother with that.
I can see a distant future, in many decades (or centuries), where 3D printers might be versatile enough to be useful to a general consumer... but that's so far off that they won't bear much resemblance to the 3D printers of today, any more than a 1950s videophone bears any resemblance to an iPhone.
Yes, ease of use and time are a big problem, as is strength and costs, both are issues on production based 3d printers as well, so don;t go thinking the big ones are better.
No, what many forget is that many people simply don't create much.
You can buy a small personal machine shop for your garage for about the price of a small 3d printer, you can also put together a nice woodshop as well. You can also buy tools to fix your car, or professional grade photo/video editors for photo and video editing. So why doesn't everyone have these? They have no need or want of them.
The only reason printers in the home took off because people found a use for them, or got them free with their computer. Kids could type and print reports for school, you could print off reports for work, etc... What purpose does the average person have for modern 3d printers? NONE. It doesn't matter if the price is $30, it's time consuming, fickle, technical, and expensive. Do you rally want to spend 8 hours, and $10 on plastic to make a vase you can buy at Walmart for $3. Of course not.
It doesn't matter how simple you make it, or how cheap, so long as it's easier and cheaper to just go buy the item you can print, it will never be on the kitchen counter. Get us somewhere close to Star Trek level replicators and yes, then we may see it, but until we get anywhere close to that, it's simply not going to happen in the average home. At the moment hobbyists and professionals are using them because they either need them or want to play with them, but the average home has absolutely zero use for one, anyone who says otherwise is riding the hype train and probably trying make a buck from it. Current 3d printers belong in labs, machine, hobby and fabrication shops, not the kitchen counter and it will remain that way for a long time yet.
Better hope the right open source company takes this and runs with it before the Apples and Microsofts and AutoDesk's of the world take it and run with it. Otherwise the walled garden approach will infiltrate real objects and we'll be regulated to death. LED screen says Error: Your custom widget looks too much like ACME widget Model #32456, you must pay for right to print this object. Enter unlock code to enable printing this and similar objects.
Digital is, by definition, imperfect. Analog is the way to go.
...and they can see with their own eyes that it sucks. At least the stuff that isn't proprietary. Fortunately, a lot of those patents are coming due this year, so the quality should get a lot better.
by Mike Buddha -- Someday the mountain might get him, but the law never will.
I don't really care what the masses think of 3D printing, I enjoy one around the house to solve minor inconveniences like replacing the missing bin out of my parts drawer or a smarter solution to hang tools in the cellar. It's literally given me the capability of thinking about an idea and getting it into a physical object in a matter of hours.. Not all the things I make are revolutionary, but it's an awesome to be able to create something custom that can't be found in stores or easily purchased. It's like a bit like Linux and opensource, it's here.. it doesn't need to take over the world or be on everyone's computer. The people that do understand it takes advantages of the bonuses.. if you don't understand it or don't feel it has a place in your lives, that's fine..
Get one that prints with sugar (either crystal or powdery paste) and they'll beat a path to your door.
Water is wet.
This tech is immature and in its infancy. Of course the average consumer isn't ready.
One thing I haven't understood yet from what limited reading I've done on 3D printers (I think I'm a pretty typical consumer in that I have not gone out of my way to learn about them) is what material the printed objects are made of. Can I print a decorative button for my coat? If I can, will it have as much strength as the button I'm replacing? Can I have it printed the same color?
Can I print a coffee mug that I can use? That might be cool - I could put whatever engraving I want on it. But again I'm not sure what material I'm dealing with. Is it waterproof? Is it strong? Is it toxic?
Would I be able to use printed objects as hardware? Are they strong enough to act as screws or screwdrivers?
It might be good for kids. I could replace those missing pieces from various board games. Could I print out new D&D dice?
So far my impression is that you get one material - some sort of resin, and you get one color. I don't think I have that many needs for things made of plastic resin.
I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
I can picture a "fabricator" which is loaded up with strips of resistors, capacitors, transistors, LEDs, diodes, ICs, and mechanical items, such as spring wire, soft wire, hard wire, screws, and a roll of thin sheet metal. It could 3D print the housing, cut and bend wire as needed to create hinges, closures, battery terminals, etc., and print a circuit board. A pick-and-place tool could grab the chips, solder them to the printed circuit board, and then close it up with a sheet metal cover.
Such machines would not be cheap (to start with), and would be really expensive to stock with an adequate supply of components. An appliance repair shop might invest in one, but Joe Sixpack won't. At least not this year.
John
I predict that 3D printers in the home will be out at about the same time that we start to see Linux as a mainstream OS on most home desktop computers. In other words, not everyone needs to print 3D objects often enough to really warrant their own personal 3D printer. The same reason most home users don't need all the functionality of unix. It will be a novelty by many for awhile, and you'll probably see 3D printing being an option at Walmart and FedEx Kinko's for some things. But it's still a very niche product, and won't be mainstream for a very long time. Maybe one day, if they get to the point of having a 3D printer with almost the same functionality as a Star Trek Replicator, then it will become an appliance in the kitchen.
Even if you wanted to replace the battery cover. Where are you getting the drawing from?
Are you going to scan in the now missing/broken one? Are you going to draw it from scratch?
Is the manufacturer going to give it to you? How many prints will it take for you to get one
that fits right?
Even if you had a 3d printer available it would probably be easier and cheaper to just buy
a new remote.
The problem is, every advance that will lead to a faster and cheaper consumer "fabricator" will also apply to an industrial "fabricator". Why would an average Joe spend all that money to stock his "universal fabricator" when he'll never use the vast majority of those components. While an industrial pick and place unit only needs the parts required to build a specific item
3D printers are at the same stage laser printers were at around 1995...they're an emerging technology, progressively getting more capable, and eventually the price point will come down enough that they'll be within reach of pretty much anyone who can afford a computer.
Give those same consumers a cheap 3D printer, along with a modeller that doesn't require a degree to produce 3D printed objects with and they'll take off. All it takes is a little clever advertising. Hell, not even clever. "Why pay for a $40 Otterbox case for your smartphone when you can print your own for free, no matter what brand or size?" I'd buy a 3D printer to avoid that shit.
3d design and modelling isn't for the faint hearted.
In this world of digital consumers, not as many are digital makers.
Taking those steps from concept to real solid output has a complicated tool chain.
It might become easy to copy existing items when software can take a photo
and convert it to a solid object with one click.
But creation from an idea will always be for those willing to put in the hard yards.
Go well
The reason can be summarized thus: too expensive for too few applications. You can only print inert models or simple mechanical parts. At best, you can print toy parts, but who seriously wants to invest tens of thousands of dollars and then wait hours to print something they could have just got at Walmart? Until they print quickly, cheaply, with multiple materials, and can print electronics, it's a garage tinkerer thing. Solution? Get out there and figure out how to do that rather than griping on /. that nobody wants an overpriced lego maker.
You have clearly never used a 3d printer. Even a commercial 100k$ one.
It's easier to fight for one's principles than to live up to them.
And then someone uploads the plans for the 5000 piece Lego Millennium Falcon (currently $4000 on eBay). You can never predict the uses people will find for new tech. Oh, and goodbye overpriced Games Workshop figures :)
Doing more than canned customization of existing models takes a certain amount of experience, talent, desire, creativity, etc. and if you don't do it all that often it's cheaper and easier to have a service like Shapeways do the print and send it to you, or go down to Kinkos once they have them, and save yourself the expense and hassle of keeping your own highly mechanical and often finicky piece of equipment running smoothly. Look at examples out there on the web, early prints by a lot of DIY folks can look pretty cheezy. Most people would just as soon buy some completed gadget they don't really need, than to figure out what they actually need and design one themselves.
Considering the popularity of predesigned artwork, Paint By Number, Needlepoint, etc., most people need to have it all figured out for them. A vending machine with a jukebox of existing models that you can tweak a little is what most people will want. In fact it's been done before-- Mold-O-Rama came out in 1962. Was a mild success at amusement parks and other touristy places, and lasted a few decades. A 3D printer is a slight improvement, but for most people, only when they can pick the model out of a catalog, or have it 3D scan their head and make them into an action figure.
These should not be associated with Comp. Sci programs, but with engineering, and start-up programs. There are ways to make this happen in schools.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Singular article, plural noun.
When I see people write like that I imagine someone with bare feet, leaning on a gate and chewing a straw.
heh, "long"
Maybe its the plastic resin or the roughness of voxelated structures.
Peole dont realize a lot of these intricate items would be impossible to mold or very expensive to mill.
Worse than that I think. I don't personally have a 3D printer, but have a maker-space with one a few blocks away and it's great. I absolutely think the idea of having 3D printers available to the public at storefronts or even the library would be a wonderful thing, and a far more natural fit - not least of which because the distributed usage means you could justify *much* higher quality machines. Printing plastic is great, but if I also have the option of ceramic or sintered titanium, or even large-format plastic (want to print a custom park bench?) at a reasonable premium and similar convenience, then it becomes truly powerful. But for personal ownership in the near term there's a major problem.
Assume you could, today, get a fast, reliable 3D plastic printer for $100 that can produce items of a quality comparable to high-end injection molding. Now, look around your house - how many consumer items can you find that could be printed in a finished state? Or to at least a finished enough state that you might reasonably expect "some assembly required" for a store bought product of the same type? No motors, no electronics, just plastic. Not many I'd guess, unless you have a lot of decorative or organizational items. Now, how much money would you save in a year by printing those things instead of buying them? Enough to justify the cost of buying and storing* a 3D printer? In most cases I doubt it. (*we must never forget the perpetual reduction in living area implied by possessing something - it can add up quickly)
Home 3D printing just isn't there for it to appeal to people accustomed to being consumers, and it probably won't be there until you could can print an electric mixer, which is obviously a *far* more complicated problem. That means that it has to appeal to people as a means of self-expression, and has to be able to deliver satisfying final products to people who lack the engineering or artistic skills to be able to exactly specify what they want. If you can deliver that then even kit-form output is probably acceptable, so long as it's relatively simple and well-documented. Heck, it may even help contribute to the "I made this myself" emotional impact. A worthy vision, but it's going to require a cultural shift before it will ever see mass adoption.
I see two potential paths towards such a cultural shift towards mass adoption of home 3D printing that falls short of "replicator" technology:
1) The direct route. Make an inexpensive but very reliable "toy" version that appeals to kids, then wait for a couple generations as the addiction is spread to subsequent generations, or if you're lucky it goes viral and becomes the "must have toy" for a season or two, and is sufficiently powerful that kids (and parents) have a sustained interest in it.
2) The backsliding "added convenience" route - Increasingly high-end printers become a staple of libraries, makerspaces, hobby-shops, or whatever, so that everybody has access to them at a very reasonable price. Ideally you have the option of send the "blueprints" ahead for pick-up or delivery within ~24 hours so that it's not notably less convenient than getting something professionally printed. Eventually everyone gets accustomed to using 3D printers on a regular basis, and small home versions become common for the small/urgent/imprecise stuff that's inconvenient to get from the print-shop.
--- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
Adoption takes time and is driven by money. Right now a home user for 3D printing is not really going to see money savings by owning a 3D printer.
Some industry will though. My guess . . . First, you are going to see 3D printing take over an industry, like autoparts. Think how much cheaper it is to sell a 3D model than to actually manufacture a part. So your Autozone, NAPA, Checker and other auto parts store will stop being warehouses of parts. Instead, they will have 3D printers.
You need a new alternator. We'll print you one.
The company that makes the 3D model gets a royalty on the part. However, the royalty is far smaller than the cost of storing so many parts.
After this, multiple industries do this. The price goes down on 3D printing and the features improve. More complex parts are printed with every lease.
You mean like this?
http://www.thingiverse.com/thi...
Or this?
http://www.thingiverse.com/thi...
Or this?
http://www.thingiverse.com/thi...
With the different types of printer systems (FDM,SLA, etc.) you have different results. All are dependent on how well the calibration is of a printer. I have seen FDM printers (The hot plastic type) that are very accurate and print very nice parts. I have 2 of these machines myself. Many of the parts I make don't have to be "flawless" but are able to make life easier. Making brackets, tools, parts for prototypes, etc. Depending on what material you are printing with depends on how "Fragile" or "Bumpy" It sounds to me like any you have seen were crap machines and crap machines print crap parts. If you know what your machine is capable of, and what choices to make in the part design, as well as the settings for the print, you can make a product that looks like it was mass produced at a factory. And if you need metal parts, print a part in a water soluble filament like Hips and then sand cast it. Pour the molten metal in and then enjoy your part manufacturing capabilities. . The SLA printers (the ones that use photo resin) are extremely accurate and create high quality parts. Maybe not as strong as FDM systems, but still very accurate and used in many industries. They do have small build areas, but any home use or diy system will usually have that anyway. Even if it is a device like a CNC plasma table, Laser cutter, CNC Mill or Lathe.
Wal-Marx
I think you meant Wal-Mart. Unless you're trying to imply that Wal-Mart is highly communist.
these things WILL need regulation
say it gets to point you can get it to make any simple part
my natural gas supply line to my water heater develops a leak-it needs to be made to the safety specs of the hose i would buy at a hardware store and it needs to be the yellow color than indicates its a natural gas hose. Say I need a new bolt or nut for my garden tractor-it needs to be the right hardness and other qualities for safety sake or the part could snap off under strain of daily use causing serious accident to me or others near by
say I need some electrical wire -I can NOT opt to use AL wire because Its cheaper or that I just happen to have AL and not CU stock for my printer otherwise one day my whatever will catch on fire
which means I have to understand the the specs of what I am printing which having been raised in a hardware store 95% of folks coming in that arent contractors have no idea about hardness of nuts and bolts where they are corrosive resistance, whether they need high heat sealant for a motor gasket repair, etc
and its that part of 3d printing that will need some kind of fix to save lives and limbs
In some ways I think we'll see hardware stores - and even Home Depot - migrate to a combination of pre-made and maker-made parts.
There are times I just need this one bizarre European screw that's missing. Not standard US, but if it could be fabbed at Home Depot or my local hardware store, I'd buy it there. maybe send them a preorder on their website and they start printing it, and I pick it up when I arrive.
But certain materials - hard forged steel, structural fiber backbone stuff, things that take a full load - that I would want to buy materials manufactured for high quality, not "plastic", but with top of the line strength.
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I don't mind a DRM logo on a printed part, identifying who made it in an unobstrusive place.
I do mind DRM designed to only allow me to buy a design of something that is already manufactured by many places from just one vendor.
And charge me $20 for a 5 cent part.
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Logos have little-to-nothing to do with Digital Rights Management. Your ability to modify a purchased (or freely downloaded) design should be out of the scope of this discussion.
The DRM I was talking about would've prevented a customer from 3D-printing more items of a particular design, than the designer's license allowed. Like you, I would not want a printer, that was designed to reject otherwise perfectly fine consumables because they were supplied by a competitor. I make a point of defeating such designs in my own "2D" printer today just to spite its manufacturer.
Yes, I would find that offensive too. Competition, however, would never allow that to happen.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
Competition, however, would never allow that to happen.
But in the telecom industry it happens all the time.
And in software.
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Because governments — both local and federal — make it too hard for meaningful competition to arise. Some of the hurdles come from well-intentioned regulations and laws, others — from corrupt practices of rent-seeking politicians. But the result is the same, one needs to be Google-sized giant to enter into a telecom business today, whereas a hundred years ago there were competing phone companies — even running wires parallel to each other.
Whereas we both agree on what we don't want, it seems, we are at odds on how to achieve that. You'd rather outlaw the things you don't like, whereas I'd like healthy competition to sort things out.
Lost me here. What are you talking about?
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
Whereas we both agree on what we don't want, it seems, we are at odds on how to achieve that. You'd rather outlaw the things you don't like, whereas I'd like healthy competition to sort things out.
Obviously one of us got his first degree in Business Management and knows that regulation is the only thing that works in the real world
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Awesome! Is that really, what they teach in Business Management? Are you sure, you didn't attend a "School of Government" instead?
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
Awesome! Is that really, what they teach in Business Management? Are you sure, you didn't attend a "School of Government" instead?
You mean Army school? Yes, but a lot of that was how to deal with terrorists.
Unlike you, I worked since my early teens and ran small businesses.
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Gasp! You mean an industrial pick and place machine? Think you'll compete with this any time soon?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...