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Tesla Posts Biggest Quarterly Loss, Slashes Production of Model X and Model S (yahoo.com)
Tesla has reported the largest quarterly loss in its history, and said it was cutting production of its Model S and Model X vehicles. Here are the key third-quarter numbers with expectations via Bloomberg: Adjusted loss per share: -$2.92 (-$2.23 expected); Revenue: $2.98 billion ($2.39 billion expected); Free cash flow: -$1.4 billion (-$1.2 billion (expected). Yahoo News reports: The company said it plans to produce 10% fewer units of its Model S and Model X models in the fourth quarter and reallocate resources to the Model 3, its newest. Tesla expects to hit a Model 3 production rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018. "While we continue to make significant progress each week in fixing Model 3 bottlenecks, the nature of manufacturing challenges during a ramp such as this makes it difficult to predict exactly how long it will take for all bottlenecks to be cleared or when new ones will appear," Tesla said in its statement. Tesla said in October that it produced only 260 vehicles, well below its target of 1,500. CEO Elon Musk said the Model 3 was "deep in production hell."
I don't know. I keep hoping all the Musk worshipping will finally end as people realize the emperor has no clothes.
Many companies spend more money than they make starting out and reinvest more money than they make as they ramp up operations. That's pretty typical (take a good look at Amazon). They have a solid sales strategy, an exciting product roadmap and lineup, as well as a CEO with a proven track-record of dealing with struggling finances.
People will give him money because they believe in his strategy and ability to execute.
As Mark Twain said, it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future.
Their junk bond offering of just 3 months ago is now trading at 95 cents on the dollar, effectively wiping out their yield. The only way Tesla is going to get the cash to keep going is a massively diluting equity raise.
Longs, get out while you can.
There's trouble, right here in River City!
Ok, So who unplugged the reality distortion field? Unicorns are falling from the sky and moonbeams can hardly be seen emanating form the Tesla factories.
Is anyone surprised? I'm not. After all, when production numbers were low, what did Musk do? He started firing people in mass. I guess he's the only one left piecing parts of the Model 3 together while he isn't sleeping. Not bad, though. He can put 8 or 9 together a day.
I do have to wonder, though, what are they spending all of that money on?
I'm one of them and hope that he delivers.
Got my Model S in 3/2014 and hope to trade it in for a Model 3 with similar battery size in a couple years.
80k miles on mine so far and still loving it. Battery acts just like it did on day one. I had two proper services so far and took the car in for two other minor issues (a tail light went out once, and the wind shield wiper fluid didn't eject once). Original brake pads but third set of tires (both of the first two sets got changed under tire warranty at my local BJs).
Does great in the snow so far (in North East Pennsylvania) on standard all-weather tires. It's rear wheel drive. Wondering how much better the four wheel drive models could possibly be.
I never had range anxiety and my wife got over it within six months of owning the car. We take it everywhere and she only takes her SUV when my car is unavailable.
Help! I'm a slashdot refugee.
In Australia at least the Model S is over $AU 112,000 the Model 3 is not really available until 2019 at around $AU40,000. So there's that. I am kind of surprised that the main players are not pushing up production e.g. Ford Electric etc because I thought that Tesla gave away most of their patents.
Many companies spend more money than they make starting out and reinvest more money than they make as they ramp up operations. That's pretty typical (take a good look at Amazon).
The Amazon comparison again... Amazon had free cash flow early on and put it back into the company. In their entire public existence, Amazon went to the capital markets just once. Tesla constantly needs other people's money just to keep the lights on.
Tesla != Amazon
I hope it ramps back up soon! So many pessimists in this crowd, when Elon is our best shot at an EV future.
Note that I know Volt and Leaf owners, all of them have a similarly positive experience (battery life strong after 180k miles, regenerative breaking making the brakes last a long time, and no mechanical issues with the motors to speak of).
So if it should come to pass that the financials tank Tesla, *hopefully* other vendors shall provide.
My biggest worry is so much of the world pinning all their electric vehicle viewpoint on Tesla, and if it fails at executing on the more mundane facets of running a large automotive company discouraging the rest of the market.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
Be the first is to lead the market, which requires huge investment, is risky, but can lead to lots of cash in the bank.
The second is to follow the leader, making products that fit the newly exposed demand - not cutting edge, but fit for purpose at a reasonable cost with reduced risk.
Add into the mix that cars are notoriously hard to get right (Tesla reportedly has lots of niggles that established car manufacturers have already solved) and now that vehicles like Volvo's Polestar and the ilk are on the horizon, from a brand reputed for reliability (albeit manufactured in China), and that Germany are building their own battery gigafactory -
Musk should be worried. The only way he'll make money is cashing in on that first wave, and it's already being spread out.
biopowered.co.uk - catalytically cracking triglycerides for home automotive use since 2008. Just say no to big oil!
Given that you are happy with the Model S, why would you want to exchange it for the smaller, more primitive Model 3?
...when government subsidy is our best shot at an EV future.
Perhaps his business model should stop depending on free tax payer money.
Making cars is expensive. Making high tech cars is more expensive.
Tesla isn't magic. Look at the sales numbers the big three have and how often they turn out new programs (that aren't really an entirely new product). The math is pretty simple. Tesla doesn't make enough money in their product line and is turning out a new program when the old ones aren't paying for themselves.
It's a stock market thing, really. Look at the stock prices of the automakers. They continue to make successful products but their stock price doesn't increase. Yet a company like Apple hasn't put out a really innovative product in years, is getting destroyed by Samsung..... but continues to be a stock market darling.
Welcome to the irrational world.
Idiots will keep giving him money...
Hey, c'mon, these kind of people will also vote for Trump and Clinton, whaddya expect?
They said it was impossible to burn through this much cash and still be behind.
Spamazon lost 18% last quarter, a number that is increasing each quarter, and was counting on AWS profits to accelerate to cover the losses in online sales.
It isnâ(TM)t happening. Spamazon is nothing more than pyramid scheme, with its future existence predicated on an ever rising stock price. Have you even looked at the P/E? Itâ(TM)s 281!
And Tesla doesnâ(TM)t have pockets that deep. When the bond market stops loaning them money, or collapses, thatâ(TM)s the end of Tesla. It is a poorly managed scam run by a CEO who routinely loses money and misses deadlines due to his hubris and incompetence.
And Tesla isnâ(TM)t a startup, theyâ(TM)ve been consistently losing money for over a decade. Tesla wonâ(TM)t survive long-term against a dozen established car companies, all coming out with hybrids or electric cars.
Time to shut it down and return whatever money is left to the shareholders.
The company said it plans to produce 10% fewer units of its Model S and Model X models in the fourth quarter
Is it just me or does that sound like a small reduction, not really qualifying as "slashes production" at all?
Shouldn't there be a journalistic rule for when something qualifies as slashing, say maybe over 50%?
Lets not get too melodramatic with the headlines.
If I had a DeLorean... I would probably only drive it from time to time.
In 2018 we still won't have produced all the cars we sold in 2016.
Buy a car today! You might get delivery by the end of the decade!
(but i wouldn't bet on it)
*Shrug* I like my Model S 75D, the bump to 4.2 second 0-60 I had done yesterday was a nice kick in the pants too. Now if I could just get the people in front of me to speed up... Fuel economy better than a Prius, quickness of a Ferrari, can seat family of 5 comfortably.
Period.
Will $CURRENT_YEAR be the year of the Linux Desktop?
As it just to happens, Elon is about to announce the launch of his new company: Musk Threads!
You cannot see them, but trust Elon, the my are real.
Only $1,000 a share!
And the Model X. The LOWEST rated car for reliability.
Yours,
Consumers Report
You're the idiot. He'll obviously prevail in the end. All of this is classic growing pains! Granted he could have done a better job.
As opposed to the rest of the automotive industry, and the coal industry, neither of which ever get any sort of government subsidy or tax breaks ever.
Oh wait, they actually get them all the f*&^ing time.
Sure, making so-called high-tech cars is not super easy, it's really hard to make any money selling cars when you cannot produce enough.
Also, since when are Tesla's cars "high tech". They are just reliability-riddled electric cars with fancy computers. More technology has been developed for the "run-of-the-mill" cars made by companies like Ford and Toyota than Tesla has. That tech, though, is just unappreciated, overlooked, and made to look easy by consummate automotive professionals that know what they are doing.
The difference is that Apple is making a profit. A lot of profit.
Yeah, Elon will totally prevail. Tesla sales will CATCH FIRE any day now:
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/220237-tesla-model-s-catches-fire-at-supercharger-station-in-norway
It is clear that Tesla stock will EXPLODE into the stratosphere:
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-battery-cells-explode-like-fireworks-in-video-of-1788573241
Come on Rei and and other dumbass musketeers, where’s you’re messiah now?
Making cars is expensive. Making high tech cars is more expensive.
Electric cars are over 100 years old. There is literally nothing high tech about a piece of shot Tesla.
As tfa says, Tesla turned out 260 cars in October. 260 cars. What a farce.
Musk is an arrogant prick, has no clue what it takes to do mass production successfully, thinks his own genius is good enough. Hence, "production hell"
At least when you vote for a major party candidate your guy at least has a theoretical chance of winning. Voting for Jill Stein etc. is as productive as voting for Elvis as a write-in. All you accomplish is wasting an hour of your life and making a bunch of other people stand in line a little bit longer.
No, they turned out 2000+ cars in Oct.
They only turned out 145 Model 3 in oct, for a grand total of 367 total.
"Profit is irrelevant." - Pets.com
In a way, I'll give him credit. The other dozen times companies have tried and failed to force electric cars on an unwilling public, they failed because they expected the profits to come from customers. Elon realized it was easier to use manufactured hype to squeeze money out of gullible investors. It's not like his - or any other CEO's - salary is connected to his company's success.
Didn't the first demise of electric cars predate assembly line manufacturing? Sounds like apples and oranges to me. Humanity doesn't care about a few hand-made cars nowadays; we need a billion of them.
Ezekiel 23:20
Meanwhile GM does about a million a month. But it's totally rational that the two have the same market cap.
You're right, they should've said Tesla was decimating production levels, not slashing.
There are shills on slashdot. Apparently, I'm one of them.
Kock bros are asking that you clean your mouth when you move from one to the other.
Also, they are now willing to buy you a helmet so that you keep from hitting your head against the bed or wall.
It is obvious that you now have brain damage
Didn't the first demise of electric cars predate assembly line manufacturing?
The GM EV1 was produced on an assembly line. It predates the piece os shits Teslas by over 20 years. There is literally nothing high tech about a piece of shit Tesla dumbass.
So you think that GM turns out a million EVs a month? No wonder America has math issues with idiots like you.
"Profit is irrelevant."
Sounds like something a Bord-assimilated Ferengi would say.
#DeleteFacebook
Are electric cars the only cars that are potentially profitable?
Because it seems sort of like you're moving the goalposts if there isn't some good reason why only electrics count...
"Profit is irrelevant." - Every company that went out of business
Elaborated on that for you.
If anyone fucking wanted them they would be.
Who cares if you vote for a winning candidate? Do you want to choose who you want to run the country, or do you want to be validated by choosing popular things?
If the latter, that's a sad sad life you must lead.
So you think that GM turns out a million EVs a month?
No wonder America has math issues with idiots like you.
There is zero percent of a manufacturing line that needs to be changed for electric cars.
But... but ...MUSK!
If you do not agree with the Muskovites your are a hater.
New Zealanders are well balanced with a chip on each shoulder. One represents Australia, the other the rest of the world
Isn't there like year long waiting lists for some of these cars? Wouldn't it be better to keep production as it is, get those backlogged orders out the door and then ramp down production? I'm guessing there will be some pretty pissed customers if they are still on waiting lists for their cars.
Who?
Uh.... Actually he didn't post that. I did. Which is very curious as to how it ended up under his ID.
Didn't the first demise of electric cars predate assembly line manufacturing?
Manufacturing A pillars has zero to with being and electric vs ice and Tesla can’t even get that right.
Well because slashdot decides to censor links that don’t toe the pro musk agenda. Here is the full link for your copy and paste pleasure.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/help-a-pillar-defect-found.88657/
https://dailykanban.com/2017/1...
Production Hell? How about Tesla as a business-to-business customer-from Hell.
The cost to make a Model S is around $30,000 and falling.
Electric cars are much simpler to make and maintain than ICE cars. This is also true for the Leaf and Volt.
If the range doubles (again) there will be a huge market for these cars.
1) After their ridiculous stock valuation drops to a reasonable amount, they get scooped up by a real automaker as a premium badge.
2) They remain a niche premium car maker.
3) They become a battery company.
They don't have the infrastructure to compete on a world wide scale with the big automakers.
As soon as electrics are well accepted by the public and hit critical mass, the big automakers are going to destroy Tesla.. because unlike Tesla they can actually build cars. Lots of them. They haven't been doing nothing and being disrupted by Tesla. They've been waiting until it makes sense economically.
It's that simple to forget when you have multiple /. accounts.
https://imgflip.com/i/vm4t4
So, I guess they aren't idiots after all.
Show me the production line and why they think they can produce 1500 cars?
The established auto makers poison pilled him by raising union interest. Which is unreasonable given that they aren't producing.
What exactly is so hard about making that many cars? The whole deal with electric cars is that they are actually simpler to make than gasoline cars... fewer parts.
I think his only choice is to move to Latin America and invest in robotic factories. Keep the American factory open as proof that we Americans are retarded and lazy.
Meanwhile GM does about a million a month. But it's totally rational that the two have the same market cap.
The only reason why GM does more than ZERO a month is because they had $100 billion in liabilities wiped clean & a giant frickin' loan to keep the lights on.
Don't be a jackass. Every manufacturer has flaws & things that slip through quality control.
You found ONE instance of something that should have been caught; okay that's bad & a black mark on the company & the service center.
But to say that Tesla can't manufacture an A pillar? Unless you can show multiple instances of this, you're just trolling
And the electric fad keeps marching on
"Profit is irrelevant."
Sounds like something a Bord-assimilated Ferengi would say.
What is a Bord?
WTF? Amazon has had 10 quarters and counting of net profit. AC is an idiot. Tesla will never make a profit, probably will close in 3 years as capital dries up...
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
It seems to be a dupe from 5 minutes prior:
https://news.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11303939&cid=55473243
What is a Bord?
It's when a bunch of top level managers get together only to end up assimilated into the collective. A Borg-board, or Bord.
Thankfully the lack of mental power means that even with a collective mind there's not enough mental capacity for the super-organism to live long. If you find yourself attacked by a Bord then give it a logic puzzle that will overwhelm it. Most any shampoo bottle will do. The organism will get stuck in a "Lather. Rinse. Repeat." loop and stop the attack. This will also speed it's inevitable death as it starves from a lack of knowing when to stop for food.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
As Detroit Electric continued their decline, they bought car bodies from other manufacturer's (DeSoto I believe) and performed a relatively simple conversion.
AFAIK, there have always been third party aftermarket conversion kits available.
... guess Elon knew the situation and was cutting staff/production
Better to sell a car you don't have then to try and sell a car you have.
I'm sorry one of my finger was drunk when I typed my comment.
Obviously it should have been "Borg-assimilated".
#DeleteFacebook
OK. Ford. Toyota. VW. BMW. Mercedes. Honda. Subaru. Or any of the other half-dozen companies that manufacture 100k+ cars in the US and didn't get a giant check from Uncle Sam for the privilege.
Thinking you can defeat the two-party duocracy by voting third party is like a redneck thinking he can defeat the US military with a hunting rifle.
The headline makes it out as if Amazon is rolling in it and though your right those figures aren't too fancy. If you take a look at net income its only in the millions. Where as the $40 billion revenue could still just be money from investment and finance.
Adding a bricks and mortar business such as Wholefoods (not to mention it being a supermarket chain) isn't going to really boost those profit margins as most businesses in that bracket only bring home 1% 2% profit margins as it is.
I'd hate to say it but the GP does have a point even if he may be wrong. But he/she is less wrong than you if you think that Amazon is anything like an Apple or even a Google. It would be very easy to see Amazon take a nose dive still.
Destroyed? In what way?
Nothing? what would qualify as "high tech" to you?
Apple's P/E is only 19. That compares to e.g. Lenovo sitting at 19.3. Samsung's not great at 12 but has tons of capital tied up in things that are unexciting (fabs, shipbuilding, etc).
Try half of that. GM is a lot smaller than they used to be and even VW and Toyota normally make less than a million cars a month.
Tesla would haemorrhage money even if you would remove R&D spending from the books completely. Moreover, its R&D expenditures are tiny compared to major car manufacturers, who all spend many billions a year.
Again, the point was never to necessarily win, the point is to choose who you think would do best.
Unless you're a loser who defines their worth as a human being by how popular your choices are. "Yay! People agree with me! Duuuurr"
Where Tesla went wrong is making a niche vehicle and not having a strong demand for it. The other car makers can easily build a niche vehicle and never think twice. Even if they lose money, they make it up on popular models with great margins like pickups. The other negative for Tesla was how it sold cars and why it never really ran a great marketing campaign. The only people ever interested in Tesla was wealthy people with disposable cash and a curiosity for technology. Even the model 3 is not cheap and for many still a second or third car because of its limitations. Not sure Tesla has ever been designing a car for the masses.
Mostly the government's. Musk loves taxes. Eff him.
That said, detailed videos of the model 3 are appearing and it's still a stylish, well designed, technologically advanced vehicle. After tens of thousands of cars have rolled off the production line and their owners have beta tested the bugs out it, I think it will become a classic.
Meanwhile GM does about a million a month. But it's totally rational that the two have the same market cap.
It's almost as if you don't know that GM was bailed out by the taxpayer not too long ago.
No sig today...
Yeah, other cars never catch fire.
Your article is about one fire in 2014. There have been a (very) few others, but Teslas actually have a much lower rate of fires compared to ICE cars.
Again,
Any rich idiot can make anything "work" by just throwing money at the problem.
For a while.
But making profit is a different matter entirely. In fact, that only comes about if you don't throw money around and give products away at or below cost.
Sure, you can say "R&D", "investment", etc. So long as that's not the ENTIRE business (or so long as it is your entire business and is inherently profitable). Ford do ten times more R&D than Tesla ever could, they just don't throw their money on things they'd "like" rather than things they think could be feasible.
Musk throws his money at the problem, utilises pretty normal methods and products to achieve it (Tesla batteries are standard lithium cells, Tesla cars use off the shelf motors and components with a bit of software, etc.), but can never sell it at a profit. Even SpaceX - with governments throwing money at it - can't really make a profit which is sustainable in the long-term. One launch failure takes them into immediate loss for a long time. There's a reason that NASA never tried to land and re-use rockets (more hassle than it's worth) and why SpaceX are now following suit.
Sure... you can get some industry movement. But I don't see Ford, BMW, etc. rushing to compete with Tesla. They've used him as a guinea pig so they don't have to waste their own R&D money and found out that - actually - making a profitable electric car is hard (which they already knew) and that sales will never justify it (Tesla - despite the big words - own precisely NOTHING of the car market).
As time goes by, short of some amazing miraculous invention, a unique selling point, something that no-one else has that people want and will pay through the nose for, some technology, some patent (which Musk doesn't have and/or is giving away), Tesla and the other ventures will all start to run out of money, either through Musk's boredom or because they just get overrun by the incumbent manufacturers.
Sales are easy. When you're selling at or below cost.
Profits, however, are another matter entirely.
Musk doesn't make profit. He is, therefore, not that good at business even if he's rich.
Apple and Samsung are neck-and-neck when it comes to overall unit sales, but Apple now makes roughly twice as much revenue from mobile devices. This is despite the fact that Samsung sold more than 30 different phones in 2016, whereas Apple sold just three.
his phone on the top shelf
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
Don't be a jackass. Every manufacturer has flaws & things that slip through quality control.
Difference is that GM would go ahead and manufacture it, defect and all.
If the recall costs them too much? They just go to Washington for another handout...
No sig today...
regenerative breaking making the brakes last a long time
At least you got one of those spellings right.
No sig today...
Don't worry. all the other car makers are getting into electric cars. Musk's goal with Tesla is to save humanity by getting us off oil, and that is mostly done now. He can safely let Tesla die knowing that he achieved his goal.
Neat designers, but totally inept in execution. Cars are screwed together for over a century in mass production and they cannot figure it out? Totally pathetic!
6 months from now, we'll be talking about how they resolved the Gigafactory battery production kinks caused by vendors who under-delivered and Model 3s flying off the assembly line.
Every business like this has its highs and lows.
Greed is the root of all evil.
You mean the vehicle you couldn't even buy, the vehicle that offered about 150 km of range for $100k or more of manufacturing costs? OK...
Ezekiel 23:20
Sometimes I wish he would drop some of his programs and concentrate on cars. I think it would be a big loss to humanity if the company sank. There's always room for improvement on the highway.
Don't worry. all the other car makers are getting into electric cars. Musk's goal with Tesla is to save humanity by getting us off oil, and that is mostly done now. He can safely let Tesla die knowing that he achieved his goal.
I think his goal is more likely to make money, otherwise he would have been selling the previous models at below cost.
Do you think his goal will be achieved if Tesla were to die tomorrow, before the majority of cars are mainstream? I think that would hurt things more than help.
If you post as Anonymous Coward, don't expect a reply.
Your link is showing SALES, not production. According to the article, "Tesla said in October that it produced only 260 vehicles, well below its target of 1,500"
Ahh, the good ol' "you vote wrong" argument. You know that things will never change and third parties will never win and we'll always be stuck with the ass hats we have now because of people like you, right? You understand that you and people who think like you are the problem with american politics, right?
Battery powered cars aren't the future. Hydrogen combustion engines, and if made safe nuclear cars. https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/...
Yeah, more leftist BS. Oil is one of the highest tax-generators, at least in Europe. We (Germans) pay something like 1.20 Euros per liter, of which 70 cents is TAX.
Petrol and Diesel are actually MAINSTAYS of taxation in many European countries, because of rampant tax dodging and massive socialist policies (which have dozens of millions on Social Security programs).
quickness of a Ferrari
In a straight line. Once. Maybe twice. Without needing to cool down the battery pack. Teslas can only be compared to a drag car. They're impressive off the line in a straight line, but they don't handle well and on tracks, they overheat their battery packs long before they can be competitive.
Making cars is 100 year old technology, there is nothing expensive about it at all. It is not a computer chip fab., it is rather something like an uneducated colonial like Ford could master. So Tesla fraud is failing not because of high tech, but because it was a fraud from the start.
German carmakers are really, really, really slow to move into battery production. Daimler had a facility but then decided to quit it again for "cost" reasons.
All German car executives lament about cost and capital requirements. So far no real coordinated action to produce batteries and double-no action to make cells.
It is important to note that some of the biggest shareholders of German car companies are the Oil Arabs.
And that "musk" is really just ass gas.
Copyright (c) 1990 - 2014 Dice. All rights reserved. Use of this comment is subject to certain Terms and Conditions.
Sometimes you need what the Vatican called a "Devil's advocate" when considering whether to venerate person as a saint.
Heaven knows that the late Christopher Hitchens was "one step above a stalker" of Anjezë Bojaxhiu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/....
On the other hand, Mother Teresa became an object of unquestioning cult veneration while living and after her passing. Her personal sacrifice, her willingness to work with the sickest of the sick among the poorest of the poor, what saintliness. "Mother Teresa" becomes a throw-away line in a Sunday sermon.
Maybe, just maybe, this saintly lady had her own obsessions. She was running a hospice, after all, but maybe her practice could have made better use of pain-relief medication rather than having end-stage cancer patients in agony, telling them that their suffering is a virtuous imitation of Christ?
So why do I "believe" the godless Mr. Hitchens instead of Catholic Christian believers regarding Mother Teresa? Maybe I have heard many accounts as well as experienced for myself where belief becomes an ideology not properly tempered by common sense? Don't tell that patient that their indescribable pain is making them go to Heaven, give them some morphine, please! Yes, Mr. Hitchens may have been crazy to doubt Mother Teresa's goodness, but there is that trope that crazy people sometimes utter truths, not just that, warnings one ought to heed.
So what is so wrong about "making her a saint." For all of Hitch's knocks, Mother Teresa is in Heaven for all I am able to know and for all I am permitted to judge. On the other hand, the rush-to-sainthood on her, in light of suppressing her human frailties, weakens the moral authority of the Vatican with respect to its role in steering others towards becoming unheralded saints. I am told the Vatican cut corners in this process (like Elon getting his Model 3 line running?) by leaving out the Devil's advocate.
OK, I have played out the analogy of Missionaries of Charities to a car, but one can get the idea. Father Elon is shepherding us towards our de-carbonized transportation Future, but there is an Amen Corner of supporters who cannot admit to any of his shortcomings. Do you think that the Niedermeyers (and Hitchens) are doing a service in that their absence, there will be no questioning taking place?
There isn't anything high tech about hooking a battery up to a motor with a variable resistor controlling the speed at which the motor turns, and regenerative braking has been around since the launch of the Prius. There is technology in the batteries, but I doubt this accounts for such a massive loss.
Is that not a reference to the Model 3 only, though? Granted, a poorly worded one, but in the context with this immediately before:
"While we continue to make significant progress each week in fixing Model 3 bottlenecks, the nature of manufacturing challenges during a ramp such as this makes it difficult to predict exactly how long it will take for all bottlenecks to be cleared or when new ones will appear,"
And this immediately following:
Musk said the Model 3 was "deep in production hell."
It seemed to me that the statement was intended to mean "produced only 260 [Model 3] vehicles in October". For Models X and S, they delivered over 8,600 vehicles per month in Q3, so it doesn't seem likely that they would already have cut production 97% on those vehicles and neglected to mention it when announcing scaling back 10% on those models for the rest of Q4.
Thank you for adding value to this conversation.
Apple has a USP (Unique Sales Proposition) which is their own OS, their own programming languages, their own more stylish and more ergonomic technology.
Samsung is just one of hundreds of Users Of Google Technology.
That is why Apple is highly profitable and the Android folks are mostly struggling for a profit.
Ford borrowed $6B to stay alive in 2009 and gets $2B in subsidies. Pretty much all auto makers, even Tesla get subsidized in the US.
VW/Mercedes/BMW get protectionist treatment from both EU and Germany governments as does Japan for their manufacturers.
Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
Note that I know Volt and Leaf owners, all of them have a similarly positive experience (battery life strong after 180k miles, regenerative breaking making the brakes last a long time, and no mechanical issues with the motors to speak of).
I think your well meaning post is confusing both types of cars and specific models there. The Volt is a hybrid. It's not fully electric. The similar sounding Bolt is fully electric, but it's only been available for about 1 year at best, in most places just since earlier this year. The Leaf is fully electric but it first got sold in 2010 and given its very limited range (about 85 miles on a full charge under average conditions) it's highly unlikely that anybody has a Leaf with 180k miles on it. You may be thinking of something like a Prius hybrid here.
I had a Leaf on lease for 3 years and I really liked it. Never had a single repair on it. The only complaint I have is that the stock tires were rated for something like 60,000 miles but I had to replace them all around 30,000. I've never had a car where the stock tires lasted as long as they were rated for. My life circumstances changed and I had to turn the Leaf back in when the lease ran out, but I'm definitely interested in the future in getting another electric vehicle. My whole experience with the Leaf was great.
VW/Mercedes/BMW get protectionist treatment from both EU and Germany governments as does Japan for their manufacturers.
How exactly? Europe and Japan do not have protectionist policies like the US and China.
Roman decimation comes to mind. Musk is another stack ranker. I Won't work for someone who plays draw poker with employees.
annnnd why would that impact the market cap now?
Amazon is a lot older company than the Musk-led Tesla. Amazon's profits didn't show up until the last 3 years or so, meaning they ran losses for over 10 years. No, Tesla's not Amazon, but Tesla is making a profit on all vehicle's sold, so any loss they run is just reinvestment into growth. They're having to almost single-handedly create the EV market and infrastructure (especially for long-range BEV travel), so it's been spendy so far. Once Model 3 production ramps up to expected levels in 2018 they'll have 10's of billions of additional revenue flow. The demand for Model 3, S, and X have all continued to increase simultaneously up to this point. They're going to be fine.
Don't worry. all the other car makers are getting into electric cars. Musk's goal with Tesla is to save humanity by getting us off oil, and that is mostly done now. He can safely let Tesla die knowing that he achieved his goal.
I think his goal is more likely to make money, otherwise he would have been selling the previous models at below cost.
The goals of making money and getting us off oil are not mutually exclusive, they're complementary. In order to make really big changes in the world, you have to create a self-sustaining enterprise, which means you need profit.
Do you think his goal will be achieved if Tesla were to die tomorrow, before the majority of cars are mainstream? I think that would hurt things more than help.
I don't think it would do more than set things back by three or four years. All the automakers are moving towards electrics. Volkswagen in particular is going all in over the next few years, in large part to shake off the stink of their diesel emissions fraud. Many governments around the world have enacted plans to ban all non-EV auto sales by specific dates in the not-too-distant future.
I don't think we'd be where we are, with essentially the whole world convinced that EVs are practical, effective vehicle for at least some use cases, and likely to be practical for all in the next decade or so, without Tesla blazing the trail. So while Tesla failing now would set us back a bit, Tesla really has accomplished Musk's primary goal for the company.
But I don't believe Tesla is going to fail. They have problems to solve, but they'll solve them, and there's plenty of capital available if they need another infusion to work through the problems. That there are problems is no surprise; lots of people shook their heads when Tesla announced their plans for ramping up production. "Aggressive" doesn't begin to describe it. So maybe it'll go a little slower than planned, that won't kill the company. They already have a big lead on the competition, and this delay isn't going to be enough to erase that.
Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
First and foremost, Musk is worth 20 billion dollars, more or less. Tesla ain't going anywhere. Along with SpaceX, Tesla is his child and he says he's never giving it up. He can float the company for years even if he sells nothing. And he will sell.
The Model 3 (E, let's be real) is the most sought after car on the planet right now. There are problems somewhere in the manufacturing process. Rumor has it that the batteries are being hand-assembled. This is not a problem: they will automate it after it shakes down. Making things is hard.
The customer base is going no where, the admirers admire Tesla even more than they did yesterday. The problem is he had to take Tesla public to raise funds, and now the sharks are circling, wanting power, wanting to buy up shares, wanting to eat the company, sowing discord and BS. SpaceX, I hope, never goes public and keeps on doing the impossible with Wall Street having no say in it.
Eventually, within a few years, the assembly line will be automated, the batteries will be 30% cheaper, and may be even those new Toshiba SCiB 2s that Toshiba claims they'll have ready and will eliminate the faults and give three times the range. I heard - and I can't know this - that the idea is to drive the price of the Model 3 down to something like 22,000 dollars. Perfectly possible. At that point, I hope the other companies can keep up, or Tesla wins this race for good.
Someone up above says that Nissan is doing as well in the EV business as Tesla. In 4 years I've put 29K miles on my LEAF and I commute in it nearly every day. It's a fine car, but it's still something made by the old-guard car manufacturers. It's controls were slow and dated when I bought in 3 years ago (they are all effectively unchanged since originally designed in 2010). The radio/nav is terrible. Remote access to it is so unreliable Nissan decided to never charge for it (not to mention that the 3G module drains the 12V battery because it gets "stuck"). Thankfully mine is not affected, but Nissan has had some terrible battery issues (both the first 24kWh battery in the 2011/2012 and the first 30kWh battery in the 2016 models have serious high deterioration rates). This says to be very wary of the 40kWh battery coming in the 2018 model.
The LEAF just wanes in comparison to my Model S. In 7 months I've put 13K miles on the S (almost all highway miles on trips trips of 200-600 miles on-way). There's no surprise since the S costs almost 3x the LEAF: it should be better. But the S is a marvel. The tech level in the car is amazing, and the OTA updates of the interface software mean that things get fixed or improved.
As an aside, I think the S is too big a car for my tastes, but I didn't want to wait any longer for a long-range EV. I still have a 3 reservation (to replace the LEAF), but I may cancel it and just keep the LEAF. Also, my S had a minor issue with the driver's door panel that I needed to bring it in to service for 3 times to get fixed correctly. But hey, when I got the LEAF, it had a issue with the heater leaking that had it sitting at the dealer for almost a month while they waited for parts. This things happen.
He grew his businesses (VW, Audi, Porsche) on the teat of the government of Adolf Hitler. Designing the People's Car, a heavy battletank, gettting a factory built by the government among many other endeavours.
Musk is doing nicely as compared to Porsche. He can always bid for a Multi billion dollar contract as part of some war...
It's a shame Tesla's build quality is so appalling.
For a given period's definition of "decimating".
I assumed that number was in reference only to its Model 3 production, which was the one they were expecting to ramp up dramatically. It doesn't explicitly say, so you could be right. Could be interpreted either way, I guess. That's modern journalism for you...
Actually the 180k is a Volt, and yes it has been driven *way* more than an average car of its age, and while yes it is technically a hybrid, for this person it spends most of it's life pure electric, and as such can illustrate the improved value compared to ICE vehicles.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
Not much new in electric motors which drive the car... okay, I'll grant you that. The basic concept of the electric motor has remained the same since they were invented. But a world of difference in battery storage, power management, and charging capabilities. That is all the special sauce that makes them feasible in the modern day. Not to mention all the self-driving features they put into it. That's a complex modern computer algorithm if there ever was one.
I'm not a Tesla fanboi, but their cars are not a simple battery with some wheels and a motor which could have been done 100 years ago. That ancient car is analogous to a golf cart, minus the plastic pieces. You are correct, that is not modern or high tech in any way. Tesla is clearly more than just that, so some credit where credit is due.
I worked at a car factory during a new model launch. It took 6 months to go from 120 cars a day to 1000 cars a day. Every part in the car had to be 200% inspected and if problems arose it would have to be fixed before another car was made.
I thought 'decimating' historically meant reducing by a factor of ten (i.e., 90%)? I could be wrong about that. I do agree that a 10% reduction is pretty significant at a time when they are supposed to be ramping everything up.
It's a shame Tesla's build quality is so appalling.
I don't find that at all. Like I said, mine had a minor issue with the door panel that (IMHO) took too many times for them to fix, but they did eventually fix it. And the overall build quality is excellent.
For instance, my LEAF has a misaligned hood that Nissan couldn't fix after several attempts. Or our CR/V that had cosmetic issues when we got it.
Oh, I'm sorry. I'm trying to talk from personal experience with their real products here. That gets in the way of all the AC with the negative postings based upon hot air and no experience. Enjoy shorting!
Not much new in electric motors which drive the car... okay, I'll grant you that. The basic concept of the electric motor has remained the same since they were invented. But a world of difference in battery storage, power management, and charging capabilities. That is all the special sauce that makes them feasible in the modern day.
Still it is very simple technology compared to, say, an internal combustion engine.
Not to mention all the self-driving features they put into it. That's a complex modern computer algorithm if there ever was one.
Tesla's self-driving features are rather crude compared to what others are offering, though.
You may have been exceptionally lucky with your Tesla, but there is no denying that they have serious quality issues.
Simpler and more basic than an ICE, absolutely agreed. Won't speak to their self-driving capabilities since I don't know exactly what they are and aren't capable of.
But is simpler a bad thing? In a complex mechanical system, such as a car, a simpler design can have a number of advantages in terms of serviceability, reliability, and longevity. The simpler the system, the less likely it is to have some critical component in the system break. The more complex, the more likely a minor defect can cause the whole system to stop working. A simple design certainly does not imply superiority. You can easily have a half-baked dead-simple design that sucks. That's usually called "oversimplified". But simplicity is not a flaw in and of itself.
then why is GM worth less than TSLA, mr dipshit? :)
But is simpler a bad thing?
Depends on the perspective. You're coming from the car owner's perspective, so simpler and less maintenance is better. But from a business's perspective (since this is a story about Tesla the business), a simple design means it's easier for competitors to build and sell the same thing.
A Model 3 isn't all that different from a Leaf, so when Nissan comes out with a new version that doesn't look like a squished lump of clay, it's going to take a big chunk out of Tesla's market share.
nah, you're a dipshit
We could all live in a cave eating cornflakes and some roots.
Instead we demand high fancy houses built of concrete, advanced chemicals with an oil guzzling heating. We spend enormous sums for automatic carriages moving our lazy asses from and to a comfortable place to work.
Then we buy a $700 Apple phone instead of just using that $20 bare-bone phone which would suffice to do the business we need to do.
To top that off, we dont enjoy the local woods then and now; instead we demand a super expensive brittle aluminum pipe to carry us 2000 miles over the air to a crowded beach. Where we demand to intoxicate ourselves with exotic breweries instead of our local grown root-berry-beer.
See how we are decadent and all the business of Apple and Boeing and Caterpillar is going to implode soon ?
Fair point. I don't know how much of their battery stuff is patented, but there will certainly be others coming around soon enough that have as good or better battery life/range. I think Tesla tries to differentiate itself with the autopilot stuff, and a bunch of ancillary features, like the supercharger stations. That may be what the coming war of the electric car manufacturers is ultimately waged on.
Again, I won't speak to how good Tesla's stuff on that front is compared to other brands, so please don't take that as a defense along the lines of an Apple fanboy muttering, "But, but, but Tesla has better stuff and is way cooler!!" Just noting where Tesla seems to be drawing the battle lines. As you say, the Leaf looks like a squished lump of clay.
Still, people invest in Tesla, so some people think his plans are sound. Amazon didn't enter such a capital-intensive industry, and it's no surprise that they took less investment capital.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
Originally it was a very severe punishment for very disappointing Roman legions. Every tenth man would be executed, so a 10% reduction.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
Sure they lose money on every vehicle, but they make it up on volume.
Ahh, but you feel the need to keep an SUV. That's the problem. You could dump the Tesla and just have the SUV.
ok, made me smile :-)
Right, good thing that loan was only paid back almost 5 years ago...
What does that loan have to do with the billions of subsidies they received?
Cool. I mean, not so cool if you were a member of an underperforming Roman legion... But that is a really interesting factoid. Thanks for sharing.
You're right, they should've said Tesla was decimating production levels, not slashing.
Now that would simply be hilarious to see. 9 quivering cars slowly surround the unlucky car, and then beat it to death with their tire chains. That'll scare 'em straight...
Check why startups condense in America? http://www.paulgraham.com/amer...
Casteism
Lots of businesses borrow money. Only a select few get blank checks from the federal government to take the ouch out of bad decisionmaking and avoid negative consequences for their leadership. Carmakers and bankers. And only the really big ones at that.
Modern EVs use 3 phase AC induction motors with permanent magnets (Leaf, Model 3), or without (Model S and X). Power to the traction motors is controlled by a combination of pulse width modulation and frequency (the speed at which the rotating field rotates) and phase shifts. No variable resistors (rheostats) involved except perhaps to communicate accelerator pedal position to the appropriate computer (a rotary encoder is more likely to employed here) This is pretty high tech but the concepts are well known and documented so any large car manufacturer could do something similar if they invested in the electrical engineering staff but so far they have shown very little interest in doing so, even the GM Bolt is almost totally bought in tech from LG.
All this sounds bad, but you know what, once the production issues are sorted, we will finally have a mass production of cars that don't use gas. Of course, regular car companies are scrambling to keep up. They want to be fast enough that they are ready if Tesla fails, to purchase the failed factories on auction, hire the same workers at 75 cents on the dollar, and not have have the burden of cost to train them, and add their expertise from gas car manufacturing, and turn a profit.
Remember, many companies that bear the cost of innovation, die by that cost. And then success rises from the ashes.