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Tesla Posts Biggest Quarterly Loss, Slashes Production of Model X and Model S (yahoo.com)

Tesla has reported the largest quarterly loss in its history, and said it was cutting production of its Model S and Model X vehicles. Here are the key third-quarter numbers with expectations via Bloomberg: Adjusted loss per share: -$2.92 (-$2.23 expected); Revenue: $2.98 billion ($2.39 billion expected); Free cash flow: -$1.4 billion (-$1.2 billion (expected). Yahoo News reports: The company said it plans to produce 10% fewer units of its Model S and Model X models in the fourth quarter and reallocate resources to the Model 3, its newest. Tesla expects to hit a Model 3 production rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018. "While we continue to make significant progress each week in fixing Model 3 bottlenecks, the nature of manufacturing challenges during a ramp such as this makes it difficult to predict exactly how long it will take for all bottlenecks to be cleared or when new ones will appear," Tesla said in its statement. Tesla said in October that it produced only 260 vehicles, well below its target of 1,500. CEO Elon Musk said the Model 3 was "deep in production hell."

145 of 260 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Its ok... by saloomy · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Many companies spend more money than they make starting out and reinvest more money than they make as they ramp up operations. That's pretty typical (take a good look at Amazon). They have a solid sales strategy, an exciting product roadmap and lineup, as well as a CEO with a proven track-record of dealing with struggling finances.

    People will give him money because they believe in his strategy and ability to execute.

  2. "...difficult to predict exactly how..." by turkeydance · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As Mark Twain said, it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future.

    1. Re:"...difficult to predict exactly how..." by ziggystarsky · · Score: 3, Informative
  3. Bond market tap turned off by fozzy1015 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Their junk bond offering of just 3 months ago is now trading at 95 cents on the dollar, effectively wiping out their yield. The only way Tesla is going to get the cash to keep going is a massively diluting equity raise.

    Longs, get out while you can.

    1. Re:Bond market tap turned off by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 2
      Please get into bond market and invest lots of money. We need a steady supply of saps, marks, rubes and assorted people playing way out of their league to keep our investments happy.

      Please don't understand that Tesla already got all the money. All it has to do is to pay interest and eventually pay off the principle. The day to day market price of its junk bond does not affect it directly. But pay no attention all that. Just bring in your money and invest in bonds using your super intelligent emotional self.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    2. Re:Bond market tap turned off by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 5, Funny

      Please don't learn the difference between principle and principal, as someone who invests in one is unlikely to earn the other.

    3. Re:Bond market tap turned off by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      So, that actually indicates that the market revised it's estimate of Tesla upwards and will give Tesla a lower interest rate next time.

    4. Re:Bond market tap turned off by AbRASiON · · Score: 1

      Care to elaborate on this further? What the implications are? I've heard many many a sour note on $TSLA for almost a year on trading circles from people, significantly more wise than I am regarding investing and the market.

      They continue to shake their heads though at how somehow TSLA continues to defy odds.
      Elaboration would be useful, if you can.

    5. Re:Bond market tap turned off by ChrisMaple · · Score: 2

      No, it may indicate two things: investors have seen better yield/risk elsewhere and sold their bonds at a loss to buy better bonds, or some of them think Tesla will be unable to pay and are getting out while they still can.

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    6. Re:Bond market tap turned off by michelcolman · · Score: 1

      I'm afraid you got that the wrong way around. If investors want to pay less for the same bonds, that means they want a higher percentage return (same absolute return on lower investment). Next issues will also have to be priced lower (i.e. higher return) to attract any investors.

    7. Re:Bond market tap turned off by queazocotal · · Score: 1

      Or be priced higher, if the model 3 ramp looks to be going well.

    8. Re:Bond market tap turned off by michelcolman · · Score: 1

      Yes, but fozzy1015 said it was currently trading at 95 cents on the dollar, to which gumbi west incorrectly replied that that meant a lower interest rate. Obviously if Tesla does better, the bonds will go up and interest rates down.

    9. Re:Bond market tap turned off by queazocotal · · Score: 1

      Not disagreeing.

    10. Re:Bond market tap turned off by Kevin+Stevens · · Score: 1

      There are a lot of criticisms around Tesla as a company, or at least a for-profit company, but having bonds trade at "95 cents on the dollar" is not one of them. Bond prices fluctuate all the time just like the stock market, and frequently go above and below par (IE 100 cents on the dollar). Bond prices are based around risk for a given level of yield. GM's bonds have gone well above and below par as well: http://finra-markets.morningst...

      The effective yield on TSLA bonds is 5.5%, this is nowhere near any sort of panic level. And "wiping out their yield" doesn't make sense either- the yield is the yield and based on what you purchased the bond for. If you are saying that the bonds lost 5% of their value according to their resale price, that is still only one years worth of yield, but otherwise this is just a blip in the market for buy and hold purchasers of bonds.

    11. Re:Bond market tap turned off by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      If I buy something for $95 and it returns $100 in 1 year, than the interest rate (5%) is lower than if I but it for $85 and it returns $100 in a year (about 15%).

    12. Re:Bond market tap turned off by michelcolman · · Score: 1

      In this case, you bought something for $100 which will return $100 and several coupons along the way. But now people don't want to pay $100 anymore, but only $95 to get the same coupons and $100 on expiration date. In other words, they want 5% more total yield on top of the coupons.

    13. Re:Bond market tap turned off by fozzy1015 · · Score: 1

      The effective yield on TSLA bonds is 5.5%, this is nowhere near any sort of panic level. And "wiping out their yield" doesn't make sense either- the yield is the yield and based on what you purchased the bond for. If you are saying that the bonds lost 5% of their value according to their resale price, that is still only one years worth of yield, but otherwise this is just a blip in the market for buy and hold purchasers of bonds.

      In less than 3 months the loss of principal on TSLA's unsecured bonds have wiped out a year's worth of yield. I would not be happy if I was a holder. http://finra-markets.morningst...

    14. Re:Bond market tap turned off by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      I get that now. They are effed.

  4. The emperor has no clothes! by mschaffer · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Ok, So who unplugged the reality distortion field? Unicorns are falling from the sky and moonbeams can hardly be seen emanating form the Tesla factories.

    Is anyone surprised? I'm not. After all, when production numbers were low, what did Musk do? He started firing people in mass. I guess he's the only one left piecing parts of the Model 3 together while he isn't sleeping. Not bad, though. He can put 8 or 9 together a day.

    I do have to wonder, though, what are they spending all of that money on?

    1. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by Puls4r · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Making cars is expensive. Making high tech cars is more expensive.

      Tesla isn't magic. Look at the sales numbers the big three have and how often they turn out new programs (that aren't really an entirely new product). The math is pretty simple. Tesla doesn't make enough money in their product line and is turning out a new program when the old ones aren't paying for themselves.

      It's a stock market thing, really. Look at the stock prices of the automakers. They continue to make successful products but their stock price doesn't increase. Yet a company like Apple hasn't put out a really innovative product in years, is getting destroyed by Samsung..... but continues to be a stock market darling.

      Welcome to the irrational world.

    2. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by WrongMonkey · · Score: 4, Informative
      Tesla must really be in trouble. Shills are shilling so hard that this one posted the same comment twice from two different accounts

      https://news.slashdot.org/comm...

    3. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Apparently the vendor that was building the power packs in the Gigafactory had an automation system that didn't work. Tesla had to hand-build the modules after firing them, and it will take time to ramp up.

      None of this stuff is really a surprise. Tesla expects a break-even status on the Model 3 in Q4, with margins improving in 2018. Yeah... it might push back a quarter... judging by history. At the same time, they are stabilizing the PV business and growing the energy storage business significantly, which now represent 20% of revenue.

      They will start 2018 with about $2.3B in cash, and likely be positive cashflow soon after.

    4. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by XXeR · · Score: 1

      I noticed that as well. It appears one is real, anyway:

      https://slashdot.org/~Puls4r
      https://slashdot.org/~BeauHD+(...

    5. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by quantaman · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Tesla must really be in trouble. Shills are shilling so hard that this one posted the same comment twice from two different accounts

      https://news.slashdot.org/comm...

      It's not a shill, the second one BeauHD+(Home+UID), looks to be some kind of bot re-posting other people's comments.

      Not sure what the tactic is, maybe once the account gets enough karma it will add a link into its sig or something.

      To be honest I've always wondered how /. avoids bot abuse.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    6. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by queazocotal · · Score: 1

      All of the Tesla subsidy has been repaid. Other car makers were not so rapid in repayment. Various other carmakers have had enormous injections of capital over the last couple of decades to keep them afloat that dwarf this, and have not repaid it.

    7. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by multi+io · · Score: 1

      Making cars is expensive. Making high tech cars is more expensive.

      High tech gasoline cars, anyway. A combustion engine with pistons and valves and injection and associated powertrain is expensive. With modern electric cars, the main complexities are probably the battery and the software. Both areas in which Tesla has quite some expertise, not less than any others anyway -- I think no other manufacturers produce more *electric* cars than Tesla does (except maybe Renault-Nissan). The others just produce more gas cars -- you know, the ones that are more complex in all the areas that won't be all that relevant in the future IF e-mobility takes off.

    8. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You underestimate the complexity of building a good car. The engine may be the hardest part, but the rest of the car isn't easy either, especially when you have to make millions and are in heavy competition. Mass producing such a complicated product with demanding consumers and low margin prices is extremely hard. The battery and software are trivial compared to the engineering that goes into a good chassis, safety systems, structural integrity, etc. Existing car manufacturers have decades of experience with these things and many of them offer a few EVs already and are working on new models, with R&D budgets that dwarf Tesla's. Adapting to a market in which EVs become a significant fraction just means that they increase ratios of current production. Tesla lacks the skill to mass produce anything. They will not be able to compete unless they tune down their sophomoric attitude and start learning from others.

    9. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by queazocotal · · Score: 1

      https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-repays-department-energy-loan-nine-years-early

    10. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Implying that BeauHD wasn't a bot from day one?

      Didn't we only recently run an article on AI generated submissions?

    11. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      And the article disingenuously says that Tesla "reported in October they had only built 260 Model 3's." Well, yeah - they reported -in October - on production up to the end of September, while trying to get the plant up and running. The article lets the reader assume they carried on through October and only produced that many cars. In fact, there has been no official word on total production for October (which hopefully beat September by a decent amount). Go to Teslarati website and see a more detailed description of the production issues and the battery pack problem. Apparently Tesla completely rebuilt the assembly line in a matter of weeks - that bottleneck should be solved soon.

    12. Re:The emperor has no clothes! by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      I've heard that before. Last time it was ULA claiming SpaceX couldn't manufacture enough rockets that didn't fail. SpaceX just beat their record of annual launches this week, with a single launcher family, while ULA got their record with three different rocket families, with separate production lines.

      Thing is, anyone who hasn't figured out Elon time, will think they can't do it. I think they can do it, it's usually a bad idea to bet against Elon on being able to deliver, but they may be 6 months or a year late. That's typical for Elon time.

  5. Re:Its ok... by MMC+Monster · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I'm one of them and hope that he delivers.

    Got my Model S in 3/2014 and hope to trade it in for a Model 3 with similar battery size in a couple years.

    80k miles on mine so far and still loving it. Battery acts just like it did on day one. I had two proper services so far and took the car in for two other minor issues (a tail light went out once, and the wind shield wiper fluid didn't eject once). Original brake pads but third set of tires (both of the first two sets got changed under tire warranty at my local BJs).

    Does great in the snow so far (in North East Pennsylvania) on standard all-weather tires. It's rear wheel drive. Wondering how much better the four wheel drive models could possibly be.

    I never had range anxiety and my wife got over it within six months of owning the car. We take it everywhere and she only takes her SUV when my car is unavailable.

    --
    Help! I'm a slashdot refugee.
  6. Possibly still too much a luxury by ceview · · Score: 1

    In Australia at least the Model S is over $AU 112,000 the Model 3 is not really available until 2019 at around $AU40,000. So there's that. I am kind of surprised that the main players are not pushing up production e.g. Ford Electric etc because I thought that Tesla gave away most of their patents.

    1. Re:Possibly still too much a luxury by bakes · · Score: 1

      Some of the manufacturers are starting to do so, but it's a very slow process. Hyundai's Ioniq line will be available in Australia next year apparently, as well as the revised Leaf, and several other makes/models (all electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid).

      --
      Ho! Haha! Guard! Turn! Parry! Dodge! Spin! Ha! Thrust!
  7. Re:Its ok... by fozzy1015 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Many companies spend more money than they make starting out and reinvest more money than they make as they ramp up operations. That's pretty typical (take a good look at Amazon).

    The Amazon comparison again... Amazon had free cash flow early on and put it back into the company. In their entire public existence, Amazon went to the capital markets just once. Tesla constantly needs other people's money just to keep the lights on.

    Tesla != Amazon

  8. Go Elon! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I hope it ramps back up soon! So many pessimists in this crowd, when Elon is our best shot at an EV future.

  9. Re:Its ok... by Junta · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Note that I know Volt and Leaf owners, all of them have a similarly positive experience (battery life strong after 180k miles, regenerative breaking making the brakes last a long time, and no mechanical issues with the motors to speak of).

    So if it should come to pass that the financials tank Tesla, *hopefully* other vendors shall provide.

    My biggest worry is so much of the world pinning all their electric vehicle viewpoint on Tesla, and if it fails at executing on the more mundane facets of running a large automotive company discouraging the rest of the market.

    --
    XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
  10. Two ways to make money in a new market by tttonyyy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Be the first is to lead the market, which requires huge investment, is risky, but can lead to lots of cash in the bank.

    The second is to follow the leader, making products that fit the newly exposed demand - not cutting edge, but fit for purpose at a reasonable cost with reduced risk.

    Add into the mix that cars are notoriously hard to get right (Tesla reportedly has lots of niggles that established car manufacturers have already solved) and now that vehicles like Volvo's Polestar and the ilk are on the horizon, from a brand reputed for reliability (albeit manufactured in China), and that Germany are building their own battery gigafactory -
      Musk should be worried. The only way he'll make money is cashing in on that first wave, and it's already being spread out.

    --
    biopowered.co.uk - catalytically cracking triglycerides for home automotive use since 2008. Just say no to big oil!
    1. Re: Two ways to make money in a new market by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      from a brand reputed for reliability

      Are you fucking kidding?? They haven't made a "reliable" vehicle since they discontinued the 700/900 series over twenty years ago.

    2. Re: Two ways to make money in a new market by The+Cynical+Critic · · Score: 2

      He says that Volvo is "reputed" for reliability and when it comes to sales it's your reputation that actually matters, not how well you're actually doing. Just look at Masterlock. They're a joke among locksmiths and people who just pick locks for fun, but still somehow a market leader.

      As for reliability, can't say I've got much experience with their post-90s cars, but I know plenty of people who have owned original V40s and V70s and they've all been solid cars. This may be an anecdote, but my parents bought a V40 the year I started in 1st grade and by the time they gave it away the year after I got my Bachelor's Degree it had only broken down once (which was covered by warranty).

      Maybe I'm wrong and haven't fully witnessed the Ford rot set in (the V40 was after all based on a platform co-developed with Mitsubishi), but I still think of Volvo as a solid brand.

      --
      "Why should I want to make anything up? Life's bad enough as it is without wanting to invent any more of it."
    3. Re:Two ways to make money in a new market by tomtomtom · · Score: 1

      Parents. The XC90 is the class leader by quite some way for large SUVs that you don't want to take offroad. It has consistently outperformed the BMW X5 and Audi Q7 (its two closest competitors) in the press reviews and sells very well.

  11. So why do you want to exchange S to 3? by ffkom · · Score: 1

    Given that you are happy with the Model S, why would you want to exchange it for the smaller, more primitive Model 3?

    1. Re:So why do you want to exchange S to 3? by MMC+Monster · · Score: 1

      1 - I'm a relatively short guy. The Model S is a bit big for me.

      2 - Newer tech. Want the autodrive features and everything else that's come out since early 2014 (ie: LTE cellular instead of the 3G in mine)

      3 - Something different. I know from past experience that after ~5 years I'm usually ready to trade in to something newer. Since I can afford it, why not?

      If Tesla no longer exists, I'll have to find a different electric car manufacturer. I know I'm not going back to an internal combustion engine. Filling up gas in the cold is for the birds!

      --
      Help! I'm a slashdot refugee.
  12. Re:Go Elon! (FTFY) by Fly+Swatter · · Score: 1, Insightful

    ...when government subsidy is our best shot at an EV future.

    Perhaps his business model should stop depending on free tax payer money.

  13. Re: Its ok... by BeauHD+(Home+UID) · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Making cars is expensive. Making high tech cars is more expensive.

    Tesla isn't magic. Look at the sales numbers the big three have and how often they turn out new programs (that aren't really an entirely new product). The math is pretty simple. Tesla doesn't make enough money in their product line and is turning out a new program when the old ones aren't paying for themselves.

    It's a stock market thing, really. Look at the stock prices of the automakers. They continue to make successful products but their stock price doesn't increase. Yet a company like Apple hasn't put out a really innovative product in years, is getting destroyed by Samsung..... but continues to be a stock market darling.

    Welcome to the irrational world.

  14. Re:lol by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

    They said it was impossible to burn through this much cash and still be behind.

  15. Slashing? Really? by LesFerg · · Score: 4, Informative

    The company said it plans to produce 10% fewer units of its Model S and Model X models in the fourth quarter

    Is it just me or does that sound like a small reduction, not really qualifying as "slashes production" at all?
    Shouldn't there be a journalistic rule for when something qualifies as slashing, say maybe over 50%?

    Lets not get too melodramatic with the headlines.

    --
    If I had a DeLorean... I would probably only drive it from time to time.
    1. Re:Slashing? Really? by BasilBrush · · Score: 1

      "Decimating" would be the correct word.

    2. Re:Slashing? Really? by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

      That, and the source for the "slashing" seems to be based on round number projections for 2017 annual production volumes.

      Stock is down ~8% though, FWIW.

    3. Re:Slashing? Really? by SuperRenaissanceMan · · Score: 1

      Isn't that literally "decimation?"

      --
      Any comment mentioning moderation is automatically Offtopic.
    4. Re:Slashing? Really? by The+Cynical+Critic · · Score: 1

      Lets not get too melodramatic with the headlines.

      That's unfortunately a tall order in this day and age when barely anybody wants to pay for subscriptions (so you pretty much have to do clickbait) and per-click revenue is just getting lower and lower (so you have to out-clickbait your competition if you want to stay afloat).

      It's a pretty sad state of affairs when you think about it... To be able to sell subscriptions, the closest thing to an antidote to clickbait, they need people to trust them, but to stay afloat they have to do clickbait, which makes people less likely to trust them. I get the distinct feeling that we're soon going to see online media outlets start going trough the exact same thing that traditional newspaper media has been going trough since the early 2000s.

      --
      "Why should I want to make anything up? Life's bad enough as it is without wanting to invent any more of it."
    5. Re:Slashing? Really? by Walter+White · · Score: 1

      Yes. But "decimate" has been so misused that most people don't understand it means "eliminate 1 in 10."

      They're not cutting total production. They're reallocating resources for a different model. "Slashing" is a totally inappropriate description of that, but if you want click bait, it works.

  16. So... what it really says. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    In 2018 we still won't have produced all the cars we sold in 2016.

    Buy a car today! You might get delivery by the end of the decade!
    (but i wouldn't bet on it)

  17. Catch me if you can... by grumpy-cowboy · · Score: 1

    Period.

    --
    Will $CURRENT_YEAR be the year of the Linux Desktop?
  18. Stay Away From The Purple Acid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    And the Model X. The LOWEST rated car for reliability.

    Yours,
    Consumers Report

  19. Missing the point by mschaffer · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Sure, making so-called high-tech cars is not super easy, it's really hard to make any money selling cars when you cannot produce enough.

    Also, since when are Tesla's cars "high tech". They are just reliability-riddled electric cars with fancy computers. More technology has been developed for the "run-of-the-mill" cars made by companies like Ford and Toyota than Tesla has. That tech, though, is just unappreciated, overlooked, and made to look easy by consummate automotive professionals that know what they are doing.

    1. Re:Missing the point by clong83 · · Score: 1

      Well, the fancy computers which manage battery power and such are reasonably 'high-tech' for one. The batteries themselves could be argued either way, I guess, but let's just say that the technology for the battery storage and powering they are doing didn't exist 25 years ago.

      I hadn't heard that they had reliability problems. In fact, I thought one of the chief selling points of an electric car, generally speaking, is that it should be much more reliable and require significantly less service than an ICE. Maybe Tesla has some issues, but sharing your source would be advisable.

      I swear I'm not a Tesla guy. I just don't understand why people get so emotional and pick sides on this company. They took some federal money? So did every other car manufacturer... They are helped by tax credits? Who cares, and that's not their decision anyhow. If you think GM would object if congress gave people a similar credit on buying a new pickup truck you are terribly naive. Don't like the idea of a recharge taking an hour? Neither do I. That's why I don't own one. But that seems like something of a personal preference. You think it's not managed particularly well? I agree, and I don't own their stock.

      Bottom line, they sell cars. A significant percentage of people seem to like them and are willing to pay for them. That seems like a foundation for a good business, whether you like their product or not. As it is, they can't seem to get manufacturing scaled up to meet demand, and the future of the company is up in the air because of it.

      Personally, I don't like Sony stereo gear. But I don't go on the internet and knock them and spread FUD about them at every opportunity. And I sure as hell don't go into someone's house and call their stereo system garbage.

    2. Re:Missing the point by Miamicanes · · Score: 1

      Autonomous driving on limited-access highways is relatively easy to do well, because even HUMAN drivers have their movements constrained by the road's design. The Tesla accident you're referring to happened on a non-limited-access rural highway with cross traffic... a scenario even the most enthusiastic Tesla owner will concede requires some degree of special vigilance, regardless of what you might be able to get away with doing on a freeway or in gridlocked traffic.

      And Tesla DOES value the lives of their consumers and those around them. Musk is honest enough to admit that people likely to buy a Tesla with autopilot routinely drive in a profoundly-distracted state ANYWAY, and did so long BEFORE they even GOT their first Tesla, so even an imperfect autopilot with known deficiencies is a net safety improvement for them. Other automakers bury their heads in the sand and totally ignore the reality of how people actually drive.

  20. Re: Its ok... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The difference is that Apple is making a profit. A lot of profit.

  21. Re: Its ok... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    As tfa says, Tesla turned out 260 cars in October. 260 cars. What a farce.

  22. Burn it Down by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Musk is an arrogant prick, has no clue what it takes to do mass production successfully, thinks his own genius is good enough. Hence, "production hell"

  23. Re: Its ok... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    No, they turned out 2000+ cars in Oct.
    They only turned out 145 Model 3 in oct, for a grand total of 367 total.

  24. Re:Ha Ha!!! by WrongMonkey · · Score: 3

    I'm waiting for Rei to post, too. Two weeks ago, he told me to put my money where my mouth is and short Tesla. I'd like to thank him for the stock tip.

  25. Re: Its ok... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Didn't the first demise of electric cars predate assembly line manufacturing? Sounds like apples and oranges to me. Humanity doesn't care about a few hand-made cars nowadays; we need a billion of them.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  26. Re:Slashing? - should be decimated. by Whiney+Mac+Fanboy · · Score: 5, Funny

    You're right, they should've said Tesla was decimating production levels, not slashing.

    --
    There are shills on slashdot. Apparently, I'm one of them.
  27. Re: Its ok... by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 2

    "Profit is irrelevant."

    Sounds like something a Bord-assimilated Ferengi would say.

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  28. Re: Its ok... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Who cares if you vote for a winning candidate? Do you want to choose who you want to run the country, or do you want to be validated by choosing popular things?

    If the latter, that's a sad sad life you must lead.

  29. Re:Its ok... by MoaDweeb · · Score: 2, Insightful

    But... but ...MUSK!

    If you do not agree with the Muskovites your are a hater.

    --
    New Zealanders are well balanced with a chip on each shoulder. One represents Australia, the other the rest of the world
  30. Re: Its ok... by Puls4r · · Score: 2

    Uh.... Actually he didn't post that. I did. Which is very curious as to how it ended up under his ID.

  31. Google is your friend by Latent+Heat · · Score: 1

    https://dailykanban.com/2017/1...

    Production Hell? How about Tesla as a business-to-business customer-from Hell.

  32. I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by bravecanadian · · Score: 3, Interesting

    1) After their ridiculous stock valuation drops to a reasonable amount, they get scooped up by a real automaker as a premium badge.

    2) They remain a niche premium car maker.

    3) They become a battery company.

    They don't have the infrastructure to compete on a world wide scale with the big automakers.

    As soon as electrics are well accepted by the public and hit critical mass, the big automakers are going to destroy Tesla.. because unlike Tesla they can actually build cars. Lots of them. They haven't been doing nothing and being disrupted by Tesla. They've been waiting until it makes sense economically.

    1. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by BasilBrush · · Score: 2

      You're giving the traditional car companies far too much credit. Look at Toyota for example, they are still trying to promote hydrogen fuel cells. They don't know that that technology has been beaten.

      GM and Hyundai have good EVs, but just like Tesla they can't produce even a fraction of what the market is demanding.

      The only traditional car company that's doing as well as Tesla is Nissan.

    2. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by bravecanadian · · Score: 1

      You're giving the traditional car companies far too much credit. Look at Toyota for example, they are still trying to promote hydrogen fuel cells. They don't know that that technology has been beaten.

      Yes, I'm sure they are unaware of what Tesla is doing.

      GM and Hyundai have good EVs, but just like Tesla they can't produce even a fraction of what the market is demanding.

      They produce millions of cars a year. If the market was demanding EVs they would be making them. We aren't there yet.

      The only traditional car company that's doing as well as Tesla is Nissan.

      Doing as well as Tesla? Tesla sells a rounding error worth of cars each year in comparison to the traditionals.

    3. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by BasilBrush · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yes, I'm sure they are unaware of what Tesla is doing.

      Which wasn't an answer to the point I posed. My point was about the dead-on-arrival technology of Hydrogen Fuel cells, not Tesla.

      They produce millions of cars a year. If the market was demanding EVs they would be making them. We aren't there yet.

      I'm afraid you are ignorant of the market. There is a demand for Bolt (Ampera E in Europe) that is not bieng fulfilled by GM. In fact you can't even order the Ampera E in Europe any more as they have no stock being delivered.
      Similarly with Hyundai and the Ioniq EV. Current waiting times are 9-10 months from order.

      It's a fact that the demand there and GM and Hyundai are unable to fullfill it.

      And I didn't even mention the other car manufacturers that don't even have a credible EV yet.

      Doing as well as Tesla? Tesla sells a rounding error worth of cars each year in comparison to the traditionals.

      Again you are being mislead by old technology. We're talking about their ability to service the EV market. The number of old tech ICE vehicles they produce is irrelevant. As you can see from the Bolt and Ioniq examples I gave.

    4. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      The problem with the Ampera is that GM sold Opel to PSA. That is what makes things difficult.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    5. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by olau · · Score: 1

      They don't have the infrastructure to compete on a world wide scale with the big automakers.

      Ah, see, but that's where it gets interesting: the big automakers don't have the infrastructure either to compete on a world-wide scale with Tesla on BEVs.

      Apparently it's not unusual that it takes some time to work out the production line for a new car model. The difference here is that we a) get served an overly optimistic timeline, b) get to hear about it because news about Tesla always make it to the front page. It's too early to tell if it's going to pan out or not.

    6. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      As soon as electrics are well accepted by the public and hit critical mass, the big automakers are going to destroy Tesla

      Which was actually the original goal Musk had for Tesla.

    7. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by blindseer · · Score: 1

      .. because unlike Tesla they can actually build cars. Lots of them.

      I seem to recall when some of the big American auto makers were in trouble that Tesla was just waiting for some factories to get sold off so that they could buy them up, and hire all or most of the people that used to work there. Instead they when to Uncle Sam and got a sweet "loan" to keep them afloat. The companies can't build cars. Much of their revenue, last I checked, was in loans for car buyers. Most of their expenses are in the sweet health care deals they make for their workers.

      The likes of GM and Chrysler-Dodge-whatever-they-are-hyph-en-ated-with-now aren't car makers any more, they are banks. They buy and sell car loans, buy and sell commodities like steel and rubber, buy and sell stock in auto part suppliers, and underwrite health insurance plans. It's kind of like how McDonald's is in the real estate business. They buy buildings, land, and work out mortgages, and then leave the actual selling of burgers and fries to independent businesses.

      I remember seeing on Buick's this little badge on the driver's door about how the frame was built by some other company. It had logo of an old style horse carriage and a established date that indicated that it in fact built horse carriages long ago.

      Tesla does much of the same, or did. They buy a lot of parts from a lot of different people, and assemble them into a car. The batteries are made by a subsidiary. I doubt they make the tires. They make the frames now but they didn't always. Had the government not stepped in then Tesla would likely had bought some of those failing GM factories, then fixed them up to make electric cars.

      What we got was a big fat bail-out in loans, and then another less obvious bail-out in "cash for clunkers". Keep the government from propping up these dinosaurs of industry. Being "too big to fail" means being too big to succeed. We should have let them fail, it would have been a rough ride for a while but we'd come out better on the other side. Such as getting car makers that know how to make cars again.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    8. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by randallman · · Score: 1

      "They don't have the infrastructure to compete on a world wide scale with the big automakers."

      So only established players can play? History is full of counter examples. IBM, Kodak, and Blockbuster to name a few. Sure, they can't build the infrastructure overnight, but they already have enough factory capacity to produce the Model 3, which was their original purpose.

      The "big automakers" have shown little motivation and even some hostility towards moving to E.V.'s. They've lobbied against increasing fuel efficiency standards and publicly shown skepticism towards the E.V. market. Waiting is right though. They would wait forever, which brings me to the next point.

      Technology advancement isn't a given. Especially without well funded basic R&D (which has diminished significantly in the U.S.), advancements in technology rely almost completely on market forces. This is unfortunate because most basic R&D doesn't have a guaranteed return and companies can't justify the expense. Tesla created relatively large demand for E.V. capable batteries. This demand has driven both economies of scale, causing huge price drops as well as increases in R&D to serve a market for longer range and cheaper E.V.s. Anticipated demand for the Model 3 alone roughly doubles the required battery capacity worldwide.

      So the other manufacturers are "waiting" for something that they know would never happen. Tesla decided to make it happen - and that requires significant planning and investment. Building cars is hard, and the incumbents have advantages there. But they don't have batteries and so much of their business and expertise is tied to combustion engines. Switching to electric will require them to throw out 50% or more of what sets them apart and keeps the barrier to entry to high. It's not too much different than what SpaceX did to ULA. SpaceX had to develop a rocket from scratch, which is hard and expensive. But ULA, despite all their expertise can't compete with the newcomer SpaceX, largely because like the "big automakers", they're so entrenched, it would almost be easier to start all over than to change.

    9. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by bravecanadian · · Score: 1

      Again you are being mislead by old technology. We're talking about their ability to service the EV market. The number of old tech ICE vehicles they produce is irrelevant. As you can see from the Bolt and Ioniq examples I gave.

      Again, you are missing the point. Tesla can't actually build their cars. They can't meet their own tiny milestones.

      Tesla is hoping to deliver 100,000 Model S and Model X delivers this year. They delivered 222 Model 3's this quarter.

      I think in the US the number of cars and light trucks sold last year was in the neighbourhood of 17 million.

      So stop trying to tell me how they are the only ones who can service this market. They are a niche player.

      The established car makers are all sitting on upcoming EV models, and they can actually produce and deliver them --- in most cases, worldwide.

      Tesla is just doing them a favour and popularizing the concept for them.

    10. Re:I only see a few outcomes for Tesla by BasilBrush · · Score: 1

      They are NOT all sitting on upcoming EV models. Most of them have only just woken up to the inevitability of BEVs this year. Most of the ones you see press releases about are vapour ware. They are not developed yet. Many of them have 2020 release dates!

      Like I say you don't know about this market. You are making the silly mistake of assuming that if they can build ICE cars they can simply switch to BEVs. Well they can't, it's a whole different market.

  33. You forgot to log out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It's that simple to forget when you have multiple /. accounts.
    https://imgflip.com/i/vm4t4

  34. Re: Its ok... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Meanwhile GM does about a million a month. But it's totally rational that the two have the same market cap.

    The only reason why GM does more than ZERO a month is because they had $100 billion in liabilities wiped clean & a giant frickin' loan to keep the lights on.

  35. Re: Its ok... by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

    WTF? Amazon has had 10 quarters and counting of net profit. AC is an idiot. Tesla will never make a profit, probably will close in 3 years as capital dries up...

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  36. Persistence is futile, we are "Bord"! by blindseer · · Score: 4, Funny

    What is a Bord?

    It's when a bunch of top level managers get together only to end up assimilated into the collective. A Borg-board, or Bord.

    Thankfully the lack of mental power means that even with a collective mind there's not enough mental capacity for the super-organism to live long. If you find yourself attacked by a Bord then give it a logic puzzle that will overwhelm it. Most any shampoo bottle will do. The organism will get stuck in a "Lather. Rinse. Repeat." loop and stop the attack. This will also speed it's inevitable death as it starves from a lack of knowing when to stop for food.

    --
    I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  37. Re: Its ok... by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1
    No, they were produced into the 1930's.

    As Detroit Electric continued their decline, they bought car bodies from other manufacturer's (DeSoto I believe) and performed a relatively simple conversion.

    AFAIK, there have always been third party aftermarket conversion kits available.

  38. Explains the Lay-offs... by dasgoober · · Score: 1

    ... guess Elon knew the situation and was cutting staff/production

  39. Re: Its ok... by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

    I'm sorry one of my finger was drunk when I typed my comment.

    Obviously it should have been "Borg-assimilated".

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  40. Re: Its ok... by RightwingNutjob · · Score: 1

    OK. Ford. Toyota. VW. BMW. Mercedes. Honda. Subaru. Or any of the other half-dozen companies that manufacture 100k+ cars in the US and didn't get a giant check from Uncle Sam for the privilege.

  41. Re: Its ok... by Paradise+Pete · · Score: 2

    There is literally nothing high tech

    Nothing? what would qualify as "high tech" to you?

  42. Re: Its ok... by mlyle · · Score: 1

    Apple's P/E is only 19. That compares to e.g. Lenovo sitting at 19.3. Samsung's not great at 12 but has tons of capital tied up in things that are unexciting (fabs, shipbuilding, etc).

  43. Ouch by DrXym · · Score: 3, Insightful
    The production plan for the model 3 was absurdly short and ambitious, so much so that it strains credulity that anyone thought it could be met. Those first cars are going to be rife with kinds of flaws - poor quality control, failing components, welding and other structural issues, recalls etc.

    That said, detailed videos of the model 3 are appearing and it's still a stylish, well designed, technologically advanced vehicle. After tens of thousands of cars have rolled off the production line and their owners have beta tested the bugs out it, I think it will become a classic.

    1. Re:Ouch by Waccoon · · Score: 1

      A car with a tablet for a dashboard destined to be a classic? No thanks. Real classics are timeless, not those that cash in on stupid (and functionally compromised) fads.

    2. Re:Ouch by DrXym · · Score: 1

      I've been insightful the whole time, thanks for asking.

  44. Re: Its ok... by Joce640k · · Score: 1

    Meanwhile GM does about a million a month. But it's totally rational that the two have the same market cap.

    It's almost as if you don't know that GM was bailed out by the taxpayer not too long ago.

    --
    No sig today...
  45. Re: Its ok... by michelcolman · · Score: 1

    Yeah, other cars never catch fire.

    Your article is about one fire in 2014. There have been a (very) few others, but Teslas actually have a much lower rate of fires compared to ICE cars.

  46. Re: Its ok... by Barsteward · · Score: 2

    his phone on the top shelf

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  47. Re: Its ok... by Joce640k · · Score: 2

    Don't be a jackass. Every manufacturer has flaws & things that slip through quality control.

    Difference is that GM would go ahead and manufacture it, defect and all.

    If the recall costs them too much? They just go to Washington for another handout...

    --
    No sig today...
  48. Re:Making Electric Cars is Cheap by Joce640k · · Score: 1

    So... a bit like your grammar checker then?

    --
    No sig today...
  49. Re:Its ok... by Joce640k · · Score: 1

    regenerative breaking making the brakes last a long time

    At least you got one of those spellings right.

    --
    No sig today...
  50. Re:Its ok... by idji · · Score: 1

    Don't worry. all the other car makers are getting into electric cars. Musk's goal with Tesla is to save humanity by getting us off oil, and that is mostly done now. He can safely let Tesla die knowing that he achieved his goal.

  51. Tesla is like Apple by MoarSauce123 · · Score: 1

    Neat designers, but totally inept in execution. Cars are screwed together for over a century in mass production and they cannot figure it out? Totally pathetic!

    1. Re:Tesla is like Apple by enjar · · Score: 1

      Apple has the largest market capitalization of any company. If that's inept, I'd certainly like to be more inept.

  52. I'm betting on Elon by TomGreenhaw · · Score: 1

    6 months from now, we'll be talking about how they resolved the Gigafactory battery production kinks caused by vendors who under-delivered and Model 3s flying off the assembly line.

    Every business like this has its highs and lows.

    --
    Greed is the root of all evil.
    1. Re:I'm betting on Elon by djinn6 · · Score: 1

      Well, their stock price just dropped like a rock. If you believe in Tesla will turn it around in 6 months, then you should start looking to buy.

    2. Re:I'm betting on Elon by TomGreenhaw · · Score: 1

      I'm betting they will fix the battery production bottleneck.

      I was gonna buy what little I could afford when it was $50 a share, but a friend talked me out of it. I'm tempted to put a little money where my mouth is but as much as I love Tesla, its high market cap seems hard to explain and justify.

      I think their stock price just dropped because the new tax plan drops electric car subsidies in addition to the production delays. If that tax plan passes, all electric cars will have more headwinds depressing sales.

      While I don't think this tax plan will get the votes to pass once the American public realizes its a windfall for the top .01% when everyone else is ultimately screwed, I wouldn't have predicted victory by President Trump.

      --
      Greed is the root of all evil.
    3. Re:I'm betting on Elon by djinn6 · · Score: 1

      I'm betting they will fix the battery production bottleneck.

      I don't think that's being questioned really. They're not going to let this one problem drive them into bankruptcy, so it'll be fixed eventually. The question is whether it reveals the existence of a systemic problem that will continue to drive back delivery dates until Tesla becomes insolvent.

      Given that they were planning to ramp up production, the recent layoffs don't make much sense. When you have production problems, the last thing you want to do is have fewer people working on it. In other words, I think Musk is worried that the revenue from Model 3 wouldn't come in soon enough to keep the company afloat. Remember that a lot of Tesla's cash is actually from the half a million preorders, each of which provides $1000 ($500 million total). Even when they deliver on those cars, Tesla won't see all that much additional cash.

      Looking at their Q3 statement, they've not grown their revenue one bit since Q3 last year. Meanwhile, they spent $300 million in R&D, $600 million in administration, and $1 billion in infrastructure. To fund all this, they borrowed another $2.1 billion. Of course, if investors continue to believe in Tesla, they'll have no problems keeping it afloat by issuing even more loans. But eventually that's not going to work anymore.

      So if we assume no more loans and no more huge infrastructure investment, the $500 million gross profit from car & solar sales will cover half of their costs, leaving them $500 million in the red each quarter. Looking forward, they're ramping down Model S and X production, so there'll be even less revenue. Meanwhile, their costs have grown quite a bit since Q2, by about $80 million R&D + admin costs and $200 million cost of sales. So the $3 billion cash they have on hand will last another 6 quarters max, and possibly as little as 4.

      Overall I wouldn't say they're close to insolvent, but their sales revenue and gross profit are both going the wrong way, and very quickly at that.

  53. Re: Its ok... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    You mean the vehicle you couldn't even buy, the vehicle that offered about 150 km of range for $100k or more of manufacturing costs? OK...

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  54. Good thing going with cars. by Neuronwelder · · Score: 1

    Sometimes I wish he would drop some of his programs and concentrate on cars. I think it would be a big loss to humanity if the company sank. There's always room for improvement on the highway.

    1. Re:Good thing going with cars. by BostonPilot · · Score: 2

      This does seem to be a common thing for Elon - he's stretched very thin, and he takes on unnecessary risk.

      I can't imagine trying to run Tesla and SpaceX at the same time. SpaceX seems to be doing pretty well, though I don't follow it as closely as Tesla. But Tesla... geez, I shake my head at some of the decisions they've made.

      On the subject of unnecessary risk, I think it made sense for Tesla to not use dealerships. They would have had the same problem that Apple had trying to sell through third parties who had no interest in selling their products. I well remember trying to buy Apple gear at Circuit City only to finally leave after the salesperson kept trying to talk me out of an Apple and into a PC. Very similar to what Tesla would have experienced if they tried to sell through dealers. So, yeah, necessary risk.

      So, 2 unique things, Electric Cars + No Dealers.

      Then Elon has to do self driving... I'm not sure why he found that necessary? Why not wait until the other manufacturers were offering it? I would have been happy to buy a nice BEV without self driving. Not only is it a distraction for Tesla from just trying to sell BEVs, but it's a huge risk - how many hugely expensive lawsuits will Tesla find itself in over this technology? Why did Elon think it was necessary? I'm not saying that Tesla owners don't love it, but why add risk to an already very risky proposition of trying to deliver BEVs that people want?

      So then, same thing with Falcon Wing doors... Yes they're cool, but I would never buy a vehicle with them. Too complicated, too expensive to repair once the warrantee is over, and again, if everybody else can do an SUV with regular doors, would it really be so bad to have just delivered regular doors on a BEV that people would love?

      So then, the whole thing with the schedule of the Model 3. I think it's an unwise risk to try to do an accelerated program to get it onto the road. I can see a couple reasons why Tesla probably thinks they need to. One is that they probably don't have the cash to take a couple years to get production going. They don't have lots of other car production to prop up the business the way the more traditional companies do. And of course, the other companies are catching up quick. If they take too long to get the Model 3 out, they'll have lost their lead against all the other companies. But maybe that would would have been the point to innovate on other stuff like self driving cars? Tesla certainly seems to be more agile than the other companies, and they're in a great location to get some of the best talent in the world, but I worry that by trying to shortcut the ramp up to manufacturing in production quantities that they might kill themselves. Why not start the Model 3 as a low production line, placed midway between $35,000 and the Model S? And then as you get higher production rates going drive the price down to $35,000? I would have bought a $50,000 Model 3. It would have been price competitive with the BMW i3 and a whole lot more desirable.

      I get that some of the things Elon does is probably more about investors and Wall Street than it is about simply producing a well engineered BEV. And I have to give him credit, the fact that almost every car company is now working furiously to produce electrified cars is almost all because of Tesla. In a few years, everybody will be producing electric vehicles and the failure of Tesla won't matter. But right now, if Tesla should implode in the next year or two or three I think there is still time for the other manufacturers to back off from BEVs and that would be a real shame for the planet.

      I wish Tesla nothing but good luck, and I hope to buy a Model 3 in a couple years if they're still around (and the quality is good).

    2. Re:Good thing going with cars. by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Of all his enterprises, I want Space-X to succeed the most. I want cost to low Earth orbit slashed. I don't really care about the other stuff (like the Mars mission), but dramatically lowering the LEO cost will be a great benefit to everything we do in space.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    3. Re:Good thing going with cars. by Neuronwelder · · Score: 1

      agreed..

    4. Re:Good thing going with cars. by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      The $35,000 deliveries won't begin until late next year. They'll fullfill the higher end, more expensive orders first, IIRC.

  55. Re:Its ok... by Major+Blud · · Score: 1

    Don't worry. all the other car makers are getting into electric cars. Musk's goal with Tesla is to save humanity by getting us off oil, and that is mostly done now. He can safely let Tesla die knowing that he achieved his goal.

    I think his goal is more likely to make money, otherwise he would have been selling the previous models at below cost.

    Do you think his goal will be achieved if Tesla were to die tomorrow, before the majority of cars are mainstream? I think that would hurt things more than help.

    --
    If you post as Anonymous Coward, don't expect a reply.
  56. Re: Its ok... by bobschmagogee · · Score: 1

    Your link is showing SALES, not production. According to the article, "Tesla said in October that it produced only 260 vehicles, well below its target of 1,500"

  57. Good by Tighe_L · · Score: 2

    Battery powered cars aren't the future. Hydrogen combustion engines, and if made safe nuclear cars. https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/...

  58. Re: Its ok... by slashdice · · Score: 1

    And that "musk" is really just ass gas.

    --
    Copyright (c) 1990 - 2014 Dice. All rights reserved. Use of this comment is subject to certain Terms and Conditions.
  59. "Devil's Advocate" in Elon's cannonization hearing by Latent+Heat · · Score: 1

    Sometimes you need what the Vatican called a "Devil's advocate" when considering whether to venerate person as a saint.

    Heaven knows that the late Christopher Hitchens was "one step above a stalker" of Anjezë Bojaxhiu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/....

    On the other hand, Mother Teresa became an object of unquestioning cult veneration while living and after her passing. Her personal sacrifice, her willingness to work with the sickest of the sick among the poorest of the poor, what saintliness. "Mother Teresa" becomes a throw-away line in a Sunday sermon.

    Maybe, just maybe, this saintly lady had her own obsessions. She was running a hospice, after all, but maybe her practice could have made better use of pain-relief medication rather than having end-stage cancer patients in agony, telling them that their suffering is a virtuous imitation of Christ?

    So why do I "believe" the godless Mr. Hitchens instead of Catholic Christian believers regarding Mother Teresa? Maybe I have heard many accounts as well as experienced for myself where belief becomes an ideology not properly tempered by common sense? Don't tell that patient that their indescribable pain is making them go to Heaven, give them some morphine, please! Yes, Mr. Hitchens may have been crazy to doubt Mother Teresa's goodness, but there is that trope that crazy people sometimes utter truths, not just that, warnings one ought to heed.

    So what is so wrong about "making her a saint." For all of Hitch's knocks, Mother Teresa is in Heaven for all I am able to know and for all I am permitted to judge. On the other hand, the rush-to-sainthood on her, in light of suppressing her human frailties, weakens the moral authority of the Vatican with respect to its role in steering others towards becoming unheralded saints. I am told the Vatican cut corners in this process (like Elon getting his Model 3 line running?) by leaving out the Devil's advocate.

    OK, I have played out the analogy of Missionaries of Charities to a car, but one can get the idea. Father Elon is shepherding us towards our de-carbonized transportation Future, but there is an Amen Corner of supporters who cannot admit to any of his shortcomings. Do you think that the Niedermeyers (and Hitchens) are doing a service in that their absence, there will be no questioning taking place?

  60. Re: Its ok... by dbialac · · Score: 1

    There isn't anything high tech about hooking a battery up to a motor with a variable resistor controlling the speed at which the motor turns, and regenerative braking has been around since the launch of the Prius. There is technology in the batteries, but I doubt this accounts for such a massive loss.

  61. Re: Its ok... by guruevi · · Score: 1

    Ford borrowed $6B to stay alive in 2009 and gets $2B in subsidies. Pretty much all auto makers, even Tesla get subsidized in the US.

    VW/Mercedes/BMW get protectionist treatment from both EU and Germany governments as does Japan for their manufacturers.

    --
    Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
  62. Re:Its ok... by Zontar_Thing_From_Ve · · Score: 1

    Note that I know Volt and Leaf owners, all of them have a similarly positive experience (battery life strong after 180k miles, regenerative breaking making the brakes last a long time, and no mechanical issues with the motors to speak of).

    I think your well meaning post is confusing both types of cars and specific models there. The Volt is a hybrid. It's not fully electric. The similar sounding Bolt is fully electric, but it's only been available for about 1 year at best, in most places just since earlier this year. The Leaf is fully electric but it first got sold in 2010 and given its very limited range (about 85 miles on a full charge under average conditions) it's highly unlikely that anybody has a Leaf with 180k miles on it. You may be thinking of something like a Prius hybrid here.

    I had a Leaf on lease for 3 years and I really liked it. Never had a single repair on it. The only complaint I have is that the stock tires were rated for something like 60,000 miles but I had to replace them all around 30,000. I've never had a car where the stock tires lasted as long as they were rated for. My life circumstances changed and I had to turn the Leaf back in when the lease ran out, but I'm definitely interested in the future in getting another electric vehicle. My whole experience with the Leaf was great.

  63. Re: Its ok... by plague911 · · Score: 1

    annnnd why would that impact the market cap now?

  64. Re:Its ok... by swillden · · Score: 1

    Don't worry. all the other car makers are getting into electric cars. Musk's goal with Tesla is to save humanity by getting us off oil, and that is mostly done now. He can safely let Tesla die knowing that he achieved his goal.

    I think his goal is more likely to make money, otherwise he would have been selling the previous models at below cost.

    The goals of making money and getting us off oil are not mutually exclusive, they're complementary. In order to make really big changes in the world, you have to create a self-sustaining enterprise, which means you need profit.

    Do you think his goal will be achieved if Tesla were to die tomorrow, before the majority of cars are mainstream? I think that would hurt things more than help.

    I don't think it would do more than set things back by three or four years. All the automakers are moving towards electrics. Volkswagen in particular is going all in over the next few years, in large part to shake off the stink of their diesel emissions fraud. Many governments around the world have enacted plans to ban all non-EV auto sales by specific dates in the not-too-distant future.

    I don't think we'd be where we are, with essentially the whole world convinced that EVs are practical, effective vehicle for at least some use cases, and likely to be practical for all in the next decade or so, without Tesla blazing the trail. So while Tesla failing now would set us back a bit, Tesla really has accomplished Musk's primary goal for the company.

    But I don't believe Tesla is going to fail. They have problems to solve, but they'll solve them, and there's plenty of capital available if they need another infusion to work through the problems. That there are problems is no surprise; lots of people shook their heads when Tesla announced their plans for ramping up production. "Aggressive" doesn't begin to describe it. So maybe it'll go a little slower than planned, that won't kill the company. They already have a big lead on the competition, and this delay isn't going to be enough to erase that.

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  65. Tesla can't "lose" by Catbeller · · Score: 1

    First and foremost, Musk is worth 20 billion dollars, more or less. Tesla ain't going anywhere. Along with SpaceX, Tesla is his child and he says he's never giving it up. He can float the company for years even if he sells nothing. And he will sell.

    The Model 3 (E, let's be real) is the most sought after car on the planet right now. There are problems somewhere in the manufacturing process. Rumor has it that the batteries are being hand-assembled. This is not a problem: they will automate it after it shakes down. Making things is hard.

    The customer base is going no where, the admirers admire Tesla even more than they did yesterday. The problem is he had to take Tesla public to raise funds, and now the sharks are circling, wanting power, wanting to buy up shares, wanting to eat the company, sowing discord and BS. SpaceX, I hope, never goes public and keeps on doing the impossible with Wall Street having no say in it.

    Eventually, within a few years, the assembly line will be automated, the batteries will be 30% cheaper, and may be even those new Toshiba SCiB 2s that Toshiba claims they'll have ready and will eliminate the faults and give three times the range. I heard - and I can't know this - that the idea is to drive the price of the Model 3 down to something like 22,000 dollars. Perfectly possible. At that point, I hope the other companies can keep up, or Tesla wins this race for good.

  66. Tesla is a technology company that also makes cars by jlv · · Score: 2

    Someone up above says that Nissan is doing as well in the EV business as Tesla. In 4 years I've put 29K miles on my LEAF and I commute in it nearly every day. It's a fine car, but it's still something made by the old-guard car manufacturers. It's controls were slow and dated when I bought in 3 years ago (they are all effectively unchanged since originally designed in 2010). The radio/nav is terrible. Remote access to it is so unreliable Nissan decided to never charge for it (not to mention that the 3G module drains the 12V battery because it gets "stuck"). Thankfully mine is not affected, but Nissan has had some terrible battery issues (both the first 24kWh battery in the 2011/2012 and the first 30kWh battery in the 2016 models have serious high deterioration rates). This says to be very wary of the 40kWh battery coming in the 2018 model.

    The LEAF just wanes in comparison to my Model S. In 7 months I've put 13K miles on the S (almost all highway miles on trips trips of 200-600 miles on-way). There's no surprise since the S costs almost 3x the LEAF: it should be better. But the S is a marvel. The tech level in the car is amazing, and the OTA updates of the interface software mean that things get fixed or improved.

    As an aside, I think the S is too big a car for my tastes, but I didn't want to wait any longer for a long-range EV. I still have a 3 reservation (to replace the LEAF), but I may cancel it and just keep the LEAF. Also, my S had a minor issue with the driver's door panel that I needed to bring it in to service for 3 times to get fixed correctly. But hey, when I got the LEAF, it had a issue with the heater leaking that had it sitting at the dealer for almost a month while they waited for parts. This things happen.

  67. Re:Slashing? - should be decimated. by thegarbz · · Score: 1

    For a given period's definition of "decimating".

  68. Re: Its ok... by clong83 · · Score: 1

    I assumed that number was in reference only to its Model 3 production, which was the one they were expecting to ramp up dramatically. It doesn't explicitly say, so you could be right. Could be interpreted either way, I guess. That's modern journalism for you...

  69. Re:Its ok... by Junta · · Score: 1

    Actually the 180k is a Volt, and yes it has been driven *way* more than an average car of its age, and while yes it is technically a hybrid, for this person it spends most of it's life pure electric, and as such can illustrate the improved value compared to ICE vehicles.

    --
    XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
  70. Re: Its ok... by clong83 · · Score: 1

    Not much new in electric motors which drive the car... okay, I'll grant you that. The basic concept of the electric motor has remained the same since they were invented. But a world of difference in battery storage, power management, and charging capabilities. That is all the special sauce that makes them feasible in the modern day. Not to mention all the self-driving features they put into it. That's a complex modern computer algorithm if there ever was one.

    I'm not a Tesla fanboi, but their cars are not a simple battery with some wheels and a motor which could have been done 100 years ago. That ancient car is analogous to a golf cart, minus the plastic pieces. You are correct, that is not modern or high tech in any way. Tesla is clearly more than just that, so some credit where credit is due.

  71. Re:Slashing? - should be decimated. by clong83 · · Score: 1

    I thought 'decimating' historically meant reducing by a factor of ten (i.e., 90%)? I could be wrong about that. I do agree that a 10% reduction is pretty significant at a time when they are supposed to be ramping everything up.

  72. Re:Tesla is a technology company that also makes c by jlv · · Score: 1

    It's a shame Tesla's build quality is so appalling.

    I don't find that at all. Like I said, mine had a minor issue with the door panel that (IMHO) took too many times for them to fix, but they did eventually fix it. And the overall build quality is excellent.

    For instance, my LEAF has a misaligned hood that Nissan couldn't fix after several attempts. Or our CR/V that had cosmetic issues when we got it.

    Oh, I'm sorry. I'm trying to talk from personal experience with their real products here. That gets in the way of all the AC with the negative postings based upon hot air and no experience. Enjoy shorting!

  73. Re: Its ok... by clong83 · · Score: 1

    Simpler and more basic than an ICE, absolutely agreed. Won't speak to their self-driving capabilities since I don't know exactly what they are and aren't capable of.

    But is simpler a bad thing? In a complex mechanical system, such as a car, a simpler design can have a number of advantages in terms of serviceability, reliability, and longevity. The simpler the system, the less likely it is to have some critical component in the system break. The more complex, the more likely a minor defect can cause the whole system to stop working. A simple design certainly does not imply superiority. You can easily have a half-baked dead-simple design that sucks. That's usually called "oversimplified". But simplicity is not a flaw in and of itself.

  74. Re: Its ok... by djinn6 · · Score: 1

    But is simpler a bad thing?

    Depends on the perspective. You're coming from the car owner's perspective, so simpler and less maintenance is better. But from a business's perspective (since this is a story about Tesla the business), a simple design means it's easier for competitors to build and sell the same thing.

    A Model 3 isn't all that different from a Leaf, so when Nissan comes out with a new version that doesn't look like a squished lump of clay, it's going to take a big chunk out of Tesla's market share.

  75. Re: Its ok... by clong83 · · Score: 1

    Fair point. I don't know how much of their battery stuff is patented, but there will certainly be others coming around soon enough that have as good or better battery life/range. I think Tesla tries to differentiate itself with the autopilot stuff, and a bunch of ancillary features, like the supercharger stations. That may be what the coming war of the electric car manufacturers is ultimately waged on.

    Again, I won't speak to how good Tesla's stuff on that front is compared to other brands, so please don't take that as a defense along the lines of an Apple fanboy muttering, "But, but, but Tesla has better stuff and is way cooler!!" Just noting where Tesla seems to be drawing the battle lines. As you say, the Leaf looks like a squished lump of clay.

  76. Re:Its ok... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

    Still, people invest in Tesla, so some people think his plans are sound. Amazon didn't enter such a capital-intensive industry, and it's no surprise that they took less investment capital.

    --
    "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  77. Re:Slashing? - should be decimated. by david_thornley · · Score: 1

    Originally it was a very severe punishment for very disappointing Roman legions. Every tenth man would be executed, so a 10% reduction.

    --
    "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  78. It's ok... by countach · · Score: 1

    Sure they lose money on every vehicle, but they make it up on volume.

  79. Re:Its ok... by countach · · Score: 1

    Ahh, but you feel the need to keep an SUV. That's the problem. You could dump the Tesla and just have the SUV.

  80. Re: Its ok... by Paradise+Pete · · Score: 1

    ok, made me smile :-)

  81. Re:Go Elon! (FTFY) by aquacrayfish · · Score: 1

    Right, good thing that loan was only paid back almost 5 years ago...

  82. Re:Ha Ha!!! by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

    Hahah. Well it was bound to happen, the stock is inflated like heck. Good show.

  83. Re:Slashing? - should be decimated. by clong83 · · Score: 1

    Cool. I mean, not so cool if you were a member of an underperforming Roman legion... But that is a really interesting factoid. Thanks for sharing.

  84. Check why startups condense in America? by NewYork · · Score: 1

    Check why startups condense in America? http://www.paulgraham.com/amer...

  85. Re: Its ok... by RightwingNutjob · · Score: 1

    Lots of businesses borrow money. Only a select few get blank checks from the federal government to take the ouch out of bad decisionmaking and avoid negative consequences for their leadership. Carmakers and bankers. And only the really big ones at that.

  86. Success rises from the ashes by rhyous · · Score: 1

    All this sounds bad, but you know what, once the production issues are sorted, we will finally have a mass production of cars that don't use gas. Of course, regular car companies are scrambling to keep up. They want to be fast enough that they are ready if Tesla fails, to purchase the failed factories on auction, hire the same workers at 75 cents on the dollar, and not have have the burden of cost to train them, and add their expertise from gas car manufacturing, and turn a profit.

    Remember, many companies that bear the cost of innovation, die by that cost. And then success rises from the ashes.