Solar power: Supply and demand tables start to turn
By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent
Published on June 30 2008 00:33
Just as the future started to look bright for solar power, prospects for some solar manufacturers have dimmed. The reason? Overcapacity in the manufacture of components is likely to cause a sudden shake-up for an industry that has been used to demand for its products consistently outstripping supply.
Shortages of silicon, the core component of photovoltaic technology - the conversion of sunlight to electric current - have plagued the solar industry for several years, keeping component prices high and frustrating demand. This fueled a rise - some analysts say a bubble - in solar stocks.
But the situation is soon to be reversed, according to several analysts. Dean Cooper, at Ambrian in London, forecasts that worldwide production capacity for components will increase from about 3 giga watts last year to 15GW to 20GW of production in 2010, largely thanks to a massive expansion of capacity in China.
Lux Research predicts that a watershed will be reached next year, when supply will outstrip demand. New Energy Finance, another analyst, agrees.
This spells both good and bad news for the solar market. It will result in a large hike in revenues: Lux Research estimates these will reach $71bn in 2012, or about triple today's sales, as stifled demand in the market can be satisfied. Prices for solar components are likely to plunge from about $3.80 per watt today to about $1.40 per watt by 2010, according to Mr Cooper.
But profit margins will also drop correspondingly, and if subsidised markets for solar energy start to stutter - as they reach saturation or as governments turn their attention to other renewables more deserving of subsidy - then this could mean problems for the market.
Most analysts predict consolidation, with bigger operators snapping up the smaller. In particular, manufacturers from the US and Europe are expected to hunt for acquisitions among the growing number of small companies in China, but there may also be some traffic in the opposite direction.
Oversupply will certainly be good for consumers, however. For years, solar companies have talked of "grid parity" - the point at which generating energy from sunlight falls to the same price as generating it from fossil fuels - as being many years off. But now, thanks to a combination of high conventional energy prices and the increase in component supply, some are predicting grid parity by 2012, or sooner.
Solar companies are also looking to invest in newer technologies to increase their capacity, widen the applications of solar power from roof-fixed systems, and cut their manufacturing costs.
Photovoltaic technology has progressed markedly in recent years, with advances making the cells more efficient, cheaper, lighter and easier to manufacture.
Newer techniques have focused on wringing more power from each module while using less raw material. The most important advance has been to "thin-film" solar cells - so-called because they are made by applying a thin film of a material such as amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride or copper indium gallium selenide to a substrate, such as glass or ceramics.
These technical advances have meant that manufacturers can now make their products more efficient by between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent a year, says Randall MacEwen, chief executive of Solar Integrated Technologies, a US-based solar specialist listed in the UK. "A lot of production capacity will come on with low-cost thin-film materials in 2009 and 2010," he says.
Further advances in solar materials are likely to include using polymer-based substances and more flexible substrates, and by honing techniques to allow them to be printed on to a flexible base. These will allow solar power to be applied to a much wider range of materials.
Some companies have already found ways to make their small solar panels at least pa
I once bought a hydration system that is claiming to be 'Camelback' brand on the header line, but when it arrived it was 'High Sierra' brand. The thing leaked from the start. The description was rather deceptive, so I filed complaint to eBay, who ruled against me. So I contacted the Camelback about the trademark infringement. In less than 2 weeks, I got a 'replacement' hydration pack as a thanks from their legal department who promised to follow up on it. It took a while but eventually the scumbag eBay seller is not using the brand name any more, and he disappeared altogether.
How much did the U.S. Postal Service pay Lucasfilm for the rights to Star Wars?
Nothing. The U.S. Postal Service does not pay licensing fees or royalties in the administration of its commemorative stamp program and, in this case, did not pay to honor the 30th anniversary of the Star Wars saga. Lucasfilm Ltd. and the U.S. Postal Service are working together without any monies being exchanged.
The Postal Service has a long tradition of commemorating American history, so in conjunction with the 30th anniversary of the Star Wars saga, this exciting new venture from the Postal Service is providing customers with new and creative ways to do business with us.
This is a blow to FOSS, anti-copyright and anti-paten movement. Implicit in this examption is that the other kind of activities are not exampt. (or maybe it's not all that implicit after all, but I am not a lawyer...) Also, if they are beginning to exampt this and that group of people for various reason, where they will stop? This area of law is relatively young and not all things has been sorted out yet, and introducing these sort of complication at this point in time seems not in the best interest of public.
This smells like the very first step in becoming like US tax law: an unfair system benefitting mostly rent seekers that cannot even be fixed due to too much entanglement of too many different special interest groups.
Another case is health care, if you're sick in a hospital in San Francisco, does it matter that there are nurses in a 3rd World Country? Nope, all the matters is that we don't have enough nurses HERE.
Ummm Brit are exporting their patients to South Africa. Singapore is another country with top-notch healthcare but prices one fifth of US.
Margins on razorblades are actually pretty darn good for the manufacturors. Just think about it: why do you think Warren Buffet holds big stake in Gillette? Why do you think those blades can be manufactured in USA and not china? Another thing: blade market is not monopoly but it is oligapoly and I wouldn't be surprised if they are fixing price somehow.
Indeed. Back in the days of CGA, EGA heck even VGA, Amiga, C64, ATARI were considered "home computer" and game developers developed for those platform eagerly. I think once Linux gains sufficient momentum, lack of games won't be a problem. Personally I don't give a damn, b/c go and texas hold'em are only games I play.
> Is blockbuster a franchise or a chain? I guess it's a franchise.
Actually I am told, by an employee, most Blockbuster stores are chain. The franchise stores have Yellow canopy instead of blue. Personally I have only seen chain stored.
Re:Learned Professionals?
on
Working Hard?
·
· Score: 1
If you mean welfare for poors when you typed "social programs".... if my memory is working I think those welfare programs cost far less than "defense" and other welfare programs for coporates.
I really cannot remember one "Unleashed" book that I am satisfied with.... and that's after the fact that I bought it for like $15. Most of these tomes are poorly edited and have MANY technical errors.
I say everybody watch less than 5 hours of TV each week. The idiot boxes have done enough harm as it is. If your main source of entertainment is TV then you live a pathetic life. I say let's do away with TVs.
Slashdot Mirror
before RMS crashes the party!
I just hope Netcraft does not jinx this by reporting premature death of botnets...
TFA implies that the armor can be programmed, so you just make beowulf clustered armor from the secret service guys.
Two body parts that get much work out is a hand and d*ck
:P
This is from ft.com
Solar power: Supply and demand tables start to turn
By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent
Published on June 30 2008 00:33
Just as the future started to look bright for solar power, prospects for some solar manufacturers have dimmed. The reason? Overcapacity in the manufacture of components is likely to cause a sudden shake-up for an industry that has been used to demand for its products consistently outstripping supply.
Shortages of silicon, the core component of photovoltaic technology - the conversion of sunlight to electric current - have plagued the solar industry for several years, keeping component prices high and frustrating demand. This fueled a rise - some analysts say a bubble - in solar stocks.
But the situation is soon to be reversed, according to several analysts. Dean Cooper, at Ambrian in London, forecasts that worldwide production capacity for components will increase from about 3 giga watts last year to 15GW to 20GW of production in 2010, largely thanks to a massive expansion of capacity in China.
Lux Research predicts that a watershed will be reached next year, when supply will outstrip demand. New Energy Finance, another analyst, agrees.
This spells both good and bad news for the solar market. It will result in a large hike in revenues: Lux Research estimates these will reach $71bn in 2012, or about triple today's sales, as stifled demand in the market can be satisfied. Prices for solar components are likely to plunge from about $3.80 per watt today to about $1.40 per watt by 2010, according to Mr Cooper.
But profit margins will also drop correspondingly, and if subsidised markets for solar energy start to stutter - as they reach saturation or as governments turn their attention to other renewables more deserving of subsidy - then this could mean problems for the market.
Most analysts predict consolidation, with bigger operators snapping up the smaller. In particular, manufacturers from the US and Europe are expected to hunt for acquisitions among the growing number of small companies in China, but there may also be some traffic in the opposite direction.
Oversupply will certainly be good for consumers, however. For years, solar companies have talked of "grid parity" - the point at which generating energy from sunlight falls to the same price as generating it from fossil fuels - as being many years off. But now, thanks to a combination of high conventional energy prices and the increase in component supply, some are predicting grid parity by 2012, or sooner.
Solar companies are also looking to invest in newer technologies to increase their capacity, widen the applications of solar power from roof-fixed systems, and cut their manufacturing costs.
Photovoltaic technology has progressed markedly in recent years, with advances making the cells more efficient, cheaper, lighter and easier to manufacture.
Newer techniques have focused on wringing more power from each module while using less raw material. The most important advance has been to "thin-film" solar cells - so-called because they are made by applying a thin film of a material such as amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride or copper indium gallium selenide to a substrate, such as glass or ceramics.
These technical advances have meant that manufacturers can now make their products more efficient by between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent a year, says Randall MacEwen, chief executive of Solar Integrated Technologies, a US-based solar specialist listed in the UK. "A lot of production capacity will come on with low-cost thin-film materials in 2009 and 2010," he says.
Further advances in solar materials are likely to include using polymer-based substances and more flexible substrates, and by honing techniques to allow them to be printed on to a flexible base. These will allow solar power to be applied to a much wider range of materials.
Some companies have already found ways to make their small solar panels at least pa
Don't they know OSS is PERFECT in every possible and imaginary way!!!! :)
I once bought a hydration system that is claiming to be 'Camelback' brand on the header line, but when it arrived it was 'High Sierra' brand. The thing leaked from the start. The description was rather deceptive, so I filed complaint to eBay, who ruled against me. So I contacted the Camelback about the trademark infringement. In less than 2 weeks, I got a 'replacement' hydration pack as a thanks from their legal department who promised to follow up on it. It took a while but eventually the scumbag eBay seller is not using the brand name any more, and he disappeared altogether.
until I read this in the FAQ:
How much did the U.S. Postal Service pay Lucasfilm for the rights to Star Wars?
Nothing. The U.S. Postal Service does not pay licensing fees or royalties in the administration of its commemorative stamp program and, in this case, did not pay to honor the 30th anniversary of the Star Wars saga. Lucasfilm Ltd. and the U.S. Postal Service are working together without any monies being exchanged.
The Postal Service has a long tradition of commemorating American history, so in conjunction with the 30th anniversary of the Star Wars saga, this exciting new venture from the Postal Service is providing customers with new and creative ways to do business with us.
limiting yourself just to tech stock.
This is a blow to FOSS, anti-copyright and anti-paten movement. Implicit in this examption is that the other kind of activities are not exampt. (or maybe it's not all that implicit after all, but I am not a lawyer...) Also, if they are beginning to exampt this and that group of people for various reason, where they will stop? This area of law is relatively young and not all things has been sorted out yet, and introducing these sort of complication at this point in time seems not in the best interest of public.
This smells like the very first step in becoming like US tax law: an unfair system benefitting mostly rent seekers that cannot even be fixed due to too much entanglement of too many different special interest groups.
Maybe it should be called googlicking? googlicked?
if it has enough segments to display "SUCKER!"
Tidy profit is no longer sufficient for these two word: CEO paycheck.
Parent post is moderated as funny but it's just too close to realities....
Oh, you mean the court decision to appoint Bush the Idiot as the president of USA?
Ummm Brit are exporting their patients to South Africa. Singapore is another country with top-notch healthcare but prices one fifth of US.
Margins on razorblades are actually pretty darn good for the manufacturors. Just think about it: why do you think Warren Buffet holds big stake in Gillette? Why do you think those blades can be manufactured in USA and not china? Another thing: blade market is not monopoly but it is oligapoly and I wouldn't be surprised if they are fixing price somehow.
Indeed. Back in the days of CGA, EGA heck even VGA, Amiga, C64, ATARI were considered "home computer" and game developers developed for those platform eagerly. I think once Linux gains sufficient momentum, lack of games won't be a problem. Personally I don't give a damn, b/c go and texas hold'em are only games I play.
> Is blockbuster a franchise or a chain? I guess it's a franchise. Actually I am told, by an employee, most Blockbuster stores are chain. The franchise stores have Yellow canopy instead of blue. Personally I have only seen chain stored.
If you mean welfare for poors when you typed "social programs".... if my memory is working I think those welfare programs cost far less than "defense" and other welfare programs for coporates.
I really cannot remember one "Unleashed" book that I am satisfied with.... and that's after the fact that I bought it for like $15. Most of these tomes are poorly edited and have MANY technical errors.
That penguine mascot is rather kid friendly. I think linux community has a perfect tool to indoctrinate kids and free them from the dark side.
I say everybody watch less than 5 hours of TV each week. The idiot boxes have done enough harm as it is. If your main source of entertainment is TV then you live a pathetic life. I say let's do away with TVs.
oh... your monitor is SO big!
Terrorists have already won. :(