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The counting issue is sticky. I for example don't consider myself an ubuntu user, but my work desktop, and 4 or so servers at work run ubuntu. My home machines are all gentoo. I think that most long time linux users are multi-distro in this sense. Of course there are always the stats from as a base to work from. With some stats you could possibly extrapolate.

According to the Linux Counter Debian is third on the list being installed on 15.97% of registered machines (after Ubuntu and Others). Yes, it is a self-selecting sample, but the numbers are large enough to carry some weight, IMHO.

Linux Counter is a very old project where you install a crontab entry to report some general information about your machine and "ping" a central server to count the number of active Linux machines.
Slackware referred to this project in a welcome message for over a decade, so members of the project disproportionately use Slackware.

It seems like they just want uniquely identify the computer (ie. for networks behind nat) plus version info. Is this not http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/ and http://counter.li.org/ doing the same thing?

...

Besides, any formula involving zombies needs to include some mention of number and location of malls, and at least passing mention of braaaaainzzz.

If the numbers in TFA are true (36 million students, growing to 52 million by the end of 2009), then this is absolutely huge in terms of Linux install base. In fact, I think this project would approximately double the install base.

I know that "counting" the number of Linux installs is essentially impossible, but here are some random numbers I've accumulated that point to the approximate size of the Linux user base:
1. The Linux Counter estimated 29 million installs in 2005. This estimate involved numerous assumptions, such as extrapolating from 8 million installs reported by Red Hat in 1998.
2. According to an IDC study, the Linux marketshare for PCs was ~3% in 2003.
3. There are about 1 billion Internet users. Browser logs indicate that Linux accounts for ~0.8% to ~3.9% of web traffic. This gives us an estimate of 8 million to 39 million Linux users. (The upper estimate is undoubtedly an over-estimate since the value comes from W3Schools, which probably has a greater fraction of 'technical' users.)
4. According to Canonical's server logs from OS updates, there are approximately 6 million active users of Ubuntu (see here and here). Assuming that Ubuntu represents 30% of Linux usage (based on this), you can come up with an estimate of 20 million Linux users.
5. According to Fedora's logs for OS updates, there are approximately 2.8 million installations of Fedora Core 6, and 1.6 million of Fedora 7. Assuming Fedora represents 9% of Linux installs (again, based on this), you can estimate 48 million Linux users.

Obviously all of these methods have their own problems. I'm not claiming that any of these estimates are robust. However they do at least suggest a range for the number of Linux users (~20 million) and the marketshare of Linux (~1% to 2%).

So, this single project, it would seem, is drastically increasing (doubling?) Linux usage. This is huge, in my opinion, because a generation of students who have learned Linux will be far more likely to use and improve upon FLOSS when they enter the job market.

One could say that it's very popular but at my last check, pclinuxos was more popular. http://www.distrowatch.com/ agrees.

So you presented distrowatch as the basis of your allegation that the obscure PClinuxOS distribution is somehow more popular than Ubuntu. Do you happen to know that what distrowatch measures isn't the install base of the individual linux distributions but in fact the number of hits on a certain distrowatch page that covers a certain distro? That means that, if you have an happy idiot who likes to spend it's day refreshing some obscure distrowatch's distro page then that distro is bound to get hugely popular. Heck, the fact that distrowatch lists something named Sabayon as more popular than Mandriva, Slackware, Gentoo and even Debian should be a clear sign that Distrowatch is a joke at measuring the popularity of linux distributions.

You don't have to go much further to get other sources of statistics that show that Ubuntu is the second most popular distro behind Debian and that pclinuxos doesn't even appear in the chart.

I'd like to see stats on how many machines shipped with Vista only to be re-formated with XP, or in the case of myself and 2 co-workers, our favorite Linux distro. No way to really get that info though as few folks (myself included) bother to install Linux Counter on their PCs. I still have it running on a bunch of old servers, but haven't bothered to install it on any new laptops. I know more and more folks are wiping Vista off and going back to XP, including several of my customers.

I know my logic was I would just make a Ghost image of Vista before ever booting it up (since nothing these days ships with the media), and at some point someone else may get this laptop and I can put Vista back on it for them, but at this rate our office may be using XP for a long time.

> I've never registered my copy of Linux, for one.

I you should feel totally ashamed of yourself!

Deal with it.

http://counter.li.org/

Certainly.

Some estimates place it as high as 29 million as of 2005... and this is before Ubuntu took off. I believe it may be higher, it could be lower, far lower, and we'd still be just fine in saying "millions", no?

We're like the damned Fremen - we're practically everywhere, yet no authority really sees but few of us ;)

/P

YOU'RE WRONG, as usual...

How am I wrong here? Was I hallucinating when you tried to compare a specific version of a specific product to the entire ecosystem of Linux distributions all the way back to kernel 0.0.1?

Along with the total number of users it has as well, maybe?

That is a troll, plain and simple.

I actually cannot find more than five virus outbreaks for Linux. You're welcome to try, if you think there have been more.

However, I personally know more than five Linux users, and even in an entirely self-selected counter, there are over a hundred thousand users.

I realize that's a small number, but please remember two things -- that is a self-selected counter, and you just said (more lies and spin) that there are less than five Linux users.

you can try to change the subject ALL YOU LIKE

I am talking about real measurable security. You're the one bringing it back to this one test.

It looks like you're evading this subject desperately here, because the numbers simply don't support your theory that Windows is even close to as secure as Linux. You've lost this one, be gracious and admit defeat.

(This is different than me "evading" the test -- you haven't given me one reason to doubt the numbers I've cited here, while I've given you many reasons to doubt your test. You may reject that I think it may be malware, but at least I am willing to talk about it. You, obviously, are not.)

http://i18n.counter.li.org/ wonder how long it will take to catch up and conquer. :)

While I'm sure you felt very clever by demonstrating your impeccable logic skills...you either missed or ignored my point completely.

My point is this - Linux has an insignificant presence on the desktop.

Companies are out to make money. When a hardware vendor is faced with the choice of paying the development/testing costs to provide native Linux drivers; they are going to make that choice with their own best interest at heart ($$$). The increased potential customer base they gain by supporting Linux will gain them less money than the cost to produce the drivers. That's why you can't walk into Best Buy and purchase a wireless network card that says it will work in Linux.

You don't need an in depth study to figure this out, and the only people who complain about how hard it is to measure Linux adoption rates are the Linux fan boys who want to imply how great Linux is doing and how it's gaining popularity.

Linux has made progress in a lot of areas, but it hasn't made much, if any, on the desktop in the last few years. Look at the chart at http://counter.li.org/ and it's pretty easy to see.

But hey - I apologize if you could understand my post. I forget that things like common sense are getting more and more rare on sites like this one each day. Because, yes, clearly, when I said both that I use Ubuntu and nobody uses Linux I meant either that I do not exist or that Ubuntu is not Linux. Myself, and everyone else here, would like to thank you for taking the time to point out the silliness of my irrational ramblings. You, good sir, are a scholar and a gentleman.

It's not a daemon, but if you want to be counted,
you could start here: http://counter.li.org/

there has been such an effort for many years, but it hasn't gained ground. heck, I barely remember to keep my entries up to date. http://counter.li.org/

Yes, go on and sign up, lets rise those stats!

http://counter.li.org/
Registered Linux User #185812

Define it as someone who's willing to be counted.

By the way... I think the number of Linux users is probably already higher than any of the hypothetical numbers you threw out.

It's obviously impossible to know for sure how many people use a given OS... especially when that OS is distributed freely and requires no kind of registration. However we can get some vague ideas from a few sources. The Linux Counter estimated 29 million in 2005. This was in part based upon verifiable numbers from Red Hat indicating 8 million installs in 1998 (yes, this is including corporate installs, not just home users).

Another (again not totally reliable) way is to use browser stats. W3school reports ~3.4% of browsers are running in Linux. Since there are 1 billion internet users, that means 39 million Linux users.

Again, these numbers are open to massive debate. But I think the real number is somewhere in the ballpark of 10 million to 40 millions users. Alot more than most people think.

You have proof that there are not 30 million end users? I would like to see something that shows that.

You have proof that there are not 30 million end users? I would like to see something that shows that.

You have proof that there are not 30 million end users? I would like to see something that shows that.

Collecting non-personally identifying data, that would be logged anyway during the normal process of the server function (httpd/ftpd daemons will log connection anyway wether or not FC owners choose to do something out of it) and publishing only the compiled form (the total number. Opposed to the complete obfuscated [rot5 scrambled ?] list, AOL-style), ISN'T EVIL (It just similar to the "number of visitors" counters back in the old Web 1.0 days).

Collecting data in an opt-in manner like http://counter.li.org/ to do statistic. ISN'T EITHER

Collecting data, that don't necessary need to be collected for technical reason (IP address vs. Pentium serial number), without telling it the user first, without asking permission to the user first, THAT IS EVIL (and regularly done by microsoft and other object of hatred from the /. crowd).

Pretty harsh words you've got there.

I should start by clarifying you that I've been a Linux user since 2000 according to http://counter.li.org/cgi-bin/runscript/display-pe rson.cgi?user=295182 . Maybe I should tell also tell you that I'm a supporter and programmer for some FOSS, maybe you'll even find that the software you're using has one or two lines I've written. That should qualify me as having "the initiative to go learn and legally use an alternative OS", don't you think?

Sadly enough, I live in a third world country, where deals between universities and big software companies like MS and IBM forces us to use their software. I don't feel like starting to justify myself for using pirated versions of their OS, I know it's wrong, but hey, I am not, as a student, ready to start paying 6 times my salary so these deals can go on and on, it's a dirty way to make business and I won't be part of it.

But aaanyway, who am I to judge the actions of a big American company? After all, they're Microsoft, I should be ashamed of my acts...shouldn't I?

Have a nice day.

PS1: I don't feel like a hypocrite, I see myself as a dirty pirate, with eye-patch and a parrot on the shoulder.
PS2: Neither do I look for admiration in the web, precisely on Slashdot, e-peen size doesn't matter I've heard.

from the Linux Counter
Distribution
153638 registrations entered 156607 values
distribution Count Percent
conectiva 769 0.50%
debian 31966 20.81%
diy 840 0.55%
fedora core 10480 6.82%
gentoo 13760 8.96%
knoppix 830 0.54%
kubuntu 782 0.51%
mandrake 11951 7.78%
mandriva 2073 1.35%
red hat 16238 10.57%
s.u.s.e 16159 10.52%
slackware 15754 10.25%
ubuntu 10812 7.04%
Others 24193 15.75%

shure, just 28 then.

The Linux Counter statistics claim that Ubuntu is not on the top, Debian is the number one, but then again, I'm pretty sure that people signing up for this counter are hardcore users, while Ubuntu has propably attracted a lot of new users. But it is the best stat I know, or atleast another view in this issue:
http://counter.li.org/reports/machines.php

Is this one close enough ?

1. Get this book: Invaluable. Read it, from start to finish. It's that good.
2. Get this other book: also very good.
3. Check out your local Linux/BSD/UNIX user group: google is your friend for this. For instance, NYCBUG is very good if you live in New York City. Also Linux International has got a lot of conference-related announcements.
4. Pick a Linux distribution, any Linux distribution really, and try to find forums and User's group in your area. Then, do the same for another distro. And another. Lather, rinse, repeat.
5. For complete newbies, Linux Questions and The Linux Documentation Project are invaluable places to start. For more advanced advice, check out Unix Guru universe, or the O'Reilly web site.
6. Finally, do check the local university and/or community college to see if they offer some sort of training
   

In case you were wondering what the real statistics were:
http://counter.li.org/reports/short.php

United States of America: 24797 registered users, 86.73 users/Mpop
Australia: 2338 registered users, 120.90 users/Mpop
New Zealand: 687 registered users, 177.06 users/Mpop

A lot more Linux users per capita Down Under than Out West.

The Linux Counter has more.

My rule of thumb is that perhaps 1 out of 200 Linux users register with the counter - but there doesn't seem to be a reason for Australians to register in larger droves than the Americans.

Guess they just don't tell their bosses about it....

Get Counted!

United States of America: 24797 registered users, 86.73 users/Mpop
Australia: 2338 registered users, 120.90 users/Mpop
New Zealand: 687 registered users, 177.06 users/Mpop

A lot more Linux users per capita Down Under than Out West.

The Linux Counter has more.

My rule of thumb is that perhaps 1 out of 200 Linux users register with the counter - but there doesn't seem to be a reason for Australians to register in larger droves than the Americans.

Guess they just don't tell their bosses about it....

Get Counted!

where and how do people find out about LUGs

There are several lists of LUG's. Be sure to search multiple LUG lists in case the chairperson hasn't listed his LUG on every list. The list at Linux International is the only one I've recieved a continuance ping from since listing my LUG so it's probably the most accurate.

help get some statistics logged: http://counter.li.org/

At the same time, does Linux *claim* to innovate? No, it doesn't..

The GNU manifesto ( http://www.gnu.org/gnu/manifesto.html ) clearly says in the very first line that the point was:
"Unix-compatible software system which I am writing so that I can give it away free to everyone who can use it."
Stallman did not intend to innovate in software, he intended to make a good operating system that people could use.

The same goes for Linus, who in fact didn't even intend that much out of Linux. From an archive thingie I found on google ( http://www.li.org/linuxhistory.php ) with some early posts by Linus about Linux:

"Hello everybody out there using minix -
I'm doing a (free) operating system (just a hobby, won't be big and
professional like gnu) for 386(486) AT clones."

So.. it's unfair to criticize Linux or GNU for not being innovative, because that wasn't the point.

And, in fairness to everybody, innovation is a lot harder than refining an innovation once it is made.

On the other hand, I think it's also more honest to say that Microsoft is much better at presenting innovations (whether their own or other people's) than they are at coming up with innovations in the first place. Whatever else you criticize about Microsoft, you have to admire their marketing.

Why don't you ask the Linux Counter about the kernel version usage stats?

1. It's hard to pin down how many Linux installations there are, let alone users (or desktop installs.) But, people are trying.
   
   
2. It's hard to find the fraction of Linux users that play games. Some work can be done to estimate that.
   
   
3. Given some (probably unreasonable) estimates of the above, however, you can figure it out yourself.
   
   
4. Whatever the customer base for a Linux WoW, it has come a long way.
   

Tidbit: Linux 2.6 is now running on more than half the computers tracked.

Tidbit: Linux 2.6 is now running on more than half the computers tracked.

Linux turns 14
whoah!
can't believe linux is that aged
(http://www.li.org/linuxhistory.php)

Of course, any Apple Macintosh, GNU/Linux, and BSD user will have a problem with a only-MSIE policy, so I think it would be a good idea to inform them about this issue.

What came first of the chicken and the egg? The vendors won't release games for Linux because the userbase isn't big enough and the userbase won't switch to Linux because the lack of games..

It's called market potential. Whenever your company releases $HARDWARE or $VIDEO_GAME they have to ask the marketing people "who will buy this?" Based on the answers, you get publishers paying for development of Microsoft only hardware drivers and Microsoft only video games.

(Neither video games or hardware are Free as in Beer. Free as in Speech is possible, but discussing price-free drivers and games is beyond the scope of my argument here.)

I was asking around last year about the market potential for Linux kernel GNU systems. The biggest problem is find out just how many people use Linux in the first place (http://counter.li.org./

So, given that it takes a market of at least 100,000 units sold to turn a profit on a top-release $50 game with a $1 million to $3 million budget, are there enough desktop linux users to suppport a Linux game release? Is the market there?

Note that top-release $50 PC games for Windows sell upwards of 200,000 units in their first year, and upwards of 100,000 units for their next few. For example, Blizzard's Wold of Warcraft (http://www.blizzard.com/ cost $5-10million to make but sold 600,000 at $39-50 in its first 6 weeks. But that is on the extreme end of the spectrum.

Assume 50% of home desktop Linux users play computer video games[0].

Using counter.li.org numbers Linux desktops = 0.025% (0.0125% gamers) of all desktops, then a WoW for Linux would have sold 144 copies in it's first 6 weeks[1]. Stats at geek.com (http://www.geek.com/ for 2004 show Linux desktops = 1.12 percent of the market. Assuming the highest number of Linux desktop gamers being 0.56 percent of the total gaming market, then a WoW for Linux would have sold 3,000 copies in it's first 6 weeks at $39-50.

That means between $7,200 and $150,000 could have been spent by Linux desktop users on WoW. While $7k will only pay a Bangladeshi salary, $150,000 would nicely cover one or two interns to make sure WoW compiles and runs on Linux[2][3].

0. Or assume a higher rate of gameplay, but consider less than 100% market penetration of your game, so that 50% market penetration is reached.

1. Note that Transgaming (http://transgaming.com/ needs far more paying customers pending their $5 votes than this to start work on a title, and WoW has been voted #1 priority by transgaming.com customers for several months before being supported.

2. Assuming a baseline Linux is being supported (e.g. SDL $VER + Glib $VER or LSB (http://www.linuxbase.org/) or Distro $FOO) and no additional cost for shipping and delivering the binaries.

3.$15 per month implies $2,160 to $45,000 a month to keep that Linux port updated. Considering Blizzard.com is reporting a 1.11 patch to the 5 year old Diablo II, over a similar 5 years a WoW monthly income could have added $225,000 to Blizzard's coffiers.

I say FUD. HP is doing plenty to support linux, as well as development. They sponsor:

- Gentoo ,GNOME,
- Linux International
- Free Standards Group (the LSB is a workgroup of these guys)
- the OSS Institute
- OSDL, Kernel.org
- etc.

HP has many people hacking the linux kernel. Of course, IBM is doing great stuff as well, but you sketched the situation in a much too black & white way.

Hey, people, visite the site Linux Counter: http://counter.li.org/ and search for Cuba. You'll see that we are not so behind in Linux world, neither in computers world.

D. (a Cuban living on Cuba)

Well, users visiting that site may be inherent of their distribution/Linux personality. Anyways, this site covers a larger swath of Linux users anyways (~ 140 000 people versus ~ 4 000): http://counter.li.org/reports/machines.php Heh, get counted! http://counter.li.org/

Well, users visiting that site may be inherent of their distribution/Linux personality. Anyways, this site covers a larger swath of Linux users anyways (~ 140 000 people versus ~ 4 000): http://counter.li.org/reports/machines.php Heh, get counted! http://counter.li.org/

Linus didn't have the POSIX specs when he started so he couldn't possibly have written to them.

But he did eventually get the POSIX specs, and made Linux conform with the specs.

As an interesting piece of history, here's the post which got the ball rolling.

I tend to buy second-hand Compaq hardware from e-bay. You can pick up a dual PII 400 Proliant for around GBP 200 with hotswap SCSI RAID and redundant PSUs. These are rock-solid and just sit there and work. If you want spare parts, just buy another one and keep it on a shelf. For shops that need more CPU power, they really should be buying off-the-shelf.

Of course, this doesn't solve the issue of how to know who is using linux. I have my servers registered with The Linux Counter although I don't think this is popular enough to be very useful. Perhaps if the big distros included it as an (optional) part of their installation software we could get a much better idea of what is being used and why.

Linux can do it just as well as Microsoft and Lexmark! Admittedly, you do have to install it yourself, but the feature is there and just as good as these so called professional vendors can offer!

Isn't being slashdotted a form of vigilante justice?

no.

despite the fact that most sites cannot deal with the volume of hits that being featured on slashdot brings with it, most crave it... so much so that, in the past, some have hired people to submit stories directly to slashdot - and, when this has failed, have harboured people to build up mod points in the hope that their stories will be accepted by the slashdot editorial staff.

for the admins - this is also a good test of their webservers under high load - a situation that is actually pretty difficult to simulate in real life.

I'll get flamed if I don't provide a RWE (real-world-example), so here

You can register at the Linux Counter and help people get an idea of how many users there are in the world.