MIT vs. Las Vegas
spellcheckur writes "Techno-mag-turned-fashion-rag Wired Magazine has an article about
MIT kids counting cards in Las Vegas. I wish I could have made seven figures while I was still in college. Maybe I should get a how-to book." Also, any chance is a good chance to mention The Eudaemonic Pie.
Man... i swear we have nothing better to do... University people have been counting cards in casinos for years... I don't think this is anything totally profound... I know for a fact its been done for at least 40 years by geeks... Read Geeks 2.0: A History of the Internet for a good story about some people almost getting busted while trying to see if the doppler effect could be used to predict the landing of a roulette ball in play...
Insert Sig Here
This guy makes this card-counting ring sound like an action movie (something like Rounders, sorta). I think that Vegas in general is a place full of crooks, Casinos and players alike.
This was almost as bad as a Travel channel special on Vegas. It's an advertisement to the public trying to tempt them to go there.
If we tell them that THEY too can afford to lose money, they will come!
The article states the current key issues in a passing sentence- that the chances of being able to do this are basically nil now. Not that they are watching, but that casinos use a 6 deck shoe that is shuffled 2/3 of the way through (before the real advantage begins). Having frequented Atlantic City, the process of counting cards in the privacy of home is one thing, doing it with bells, flashing lights, scantily clad cocktail waitresses, and the most important distraction, the other players, is quite another. The article was a fun read. Made me envious.
Interesting to me that the kids who have the cash (or are given the cash) to go to MIT feel the need to try and rip off the casinos...
There's no such thing as an unbiased news source, everyone's got an agenda.
Really old news:
;)
This happened in the days of the single deck. This actually caused the use of the six deck shoot (or shoe or whatever).
I read the article in Wired, thought "Hey, I could do this" then realized that it can't be done anymore... Oh well... Anyone else know of any get rich quick schemes that work?
I don't know about you Timothy, but I wouldn't mind making seven figures now.
"They do not preach that their god will rouse them, a little before the Nuts work loose." Kipling, 'The Sons of Martha'
best odds on teh floor is bacarat, betting on the player, *truly* 50/50...
of course the game is as exciting as flipping a coin, but oh well...
second best is craps.
third is BJ
... hi bingo
Sorry, but counting cards is not illegal, its not cheating. Its just a highly developed way to play blackjack. Now the casino's have the right not to let you play for what ever reason they decide, but they can't arrest you for counting cards, they can only kick you out and ask you not to come back. Considering its one of the only ways the house can be beaten legitimately, I say more power to anyone that does this.
"My head hurts, My feet stink, and I dont love Jesus." -Jimmy Buffett
To quote an old freind of mine : "Whats the point in counting cards, you know there are always going to be 52."
The article was a great read. It reminds me of a story about some 'techies' that built the shoe computer that helped them predict where a Roulette marble would drop. Apparently they would use the computer to calibrate the wheel's spin and the marble against each other and then try to calculate the region of the wheel the ball would land. I figure that if you can at least know which half of the wheel you're going to land the marble in, you've already got a hedge on the house. If anyone has any links to that story please post.
:)
Someone should make a "Ocean's Eleven" style movie about this type of stuff.
Personally, I stick to Craps. The odds are nearly even if you stick to the Pass line. Most people I've seen playing the game love to play all the sucker bets instead. At least I usualy walk out with my original money in my pocket and a few free beers in my tummy.
Dealers have to follow the house rules no matter what they think the next card may be.
If they have a hand below 17, they have to hit, no matter what If the table's rule is hit on soft 17, they have to hit no matter what. Doesn't matter if they know you've got a blackjack, or they're positive the next card is going to bust them.
You're right, though, card counting is perfectly legal. Most casinos don't have a problem with it until you start to win a lot. At that point, they can't have to arrested, but they have no obligation to allow you to keep playing.
(Also, the house advantage isn't anywhere near 90%, its a couple percent at best, depending on the rules you end up playing with)
"Can you win?" by Mike Orkin (Freeman Press- Scientific American) 'splains the odds of casino and sports betting games. Great writer, it's a book on statistics that is often hilarious.
Teaches you how to have hours of fun on the craps and blackjack tables without losing more the $20.
This issue of Wired, by the way, is just great. Expounds on water politics in western Asia and other stuff not discussed anywhere else. Well worth the yearly subscription of $10 to $12.
It's funny how nobody noticed who wrote the story.
Ben Motherfucking Mezrich. One of the best young fiction writers out there. According to the footnote it says he turned to writing non-fiction and his new book on this^ particular subject.
If you're unfamiliar with his works, I encourage anybody to check out Fertile Ground, Treshold and Reaper which rips on Microsoft-like organization and their set-top devices in a really good techno-suspense novel.
Apparently he's back. And it's good news.
"The guard doesn't seem to be bothered by the bulges under my clothes. He waves me through the metal detector, and I stumble toward my gate."
Thank god he didn't try to hide the money in his shoes!
Live web cams
"It takes a small amount of skill to know the right plays and count the cards..."
I live in Vegas, and I actually know a guy that can do this, and can really clean up at a Blackjack table. It's not about actually remembering every card's place in the deck and trying to predict when the card will come up, it's about trying to predict when face cards will come up. Their's actually a rhythm/pattern to it while you're watching the cards come out, so a REAL easy way to spot someone doing this is to look for someone that's trying to use a make-shift metrinome, like someone rolling a chip in their hands or tapping the table in a specific, contantly-repeating pattern. Pit Bosses can spot this shit through a hurricane, so unless you can count in your head, you're fucked(it seems simple, but it's hot, noisy, and if you're cheating, you're probably pretty nervous).
It's important to note that it's not like Rainman where you're going to be able to say a 10 of hearts is coming up next, or anything specific like that. You just want to be able to predict with good odds that a face card is going to be up soon. A lot of tables, however, use multiple decks, so it gets pretty hard. Extremely high-roller tables have even been known to use a new deck for every hand. Most tables, though, just have a big plastic holder with 6 shuffled decks inside.
It's really not that hard, and my friend can make about $5,000 a weekend on average, but remember, you may have to sit at a table for 8 hours a day for 2 days to make this kind of money, but hell, that's a work schedule, and a $1,000 a day isn't bad. Just remember, the trick to not getting caught is don't be a stupid fuck. Don't come in a 10am, play the $5 dollar tables, and 2 hours later be raking in at the $1,000 tables, or they'll nail your ass. If they even SUSPECT your cheating, they'll take the money, kick you out, and you can't do shit about it(what are you gonna do, sue them for the money you came there with?). And this is a at nice casino. God help you if you cheat at a shady casino.
Finally, math books without any of that base 6 crap in them.
I've met several people who have a very strong technology background and are card counters too (one of them happened to hail from MIT) - this was a few years ago, and some of them went on to create their own .com's, which ended up booming, then folding but ultimately paying out a princely sum to these individuals.
:)
What are they doing now? Hopping around the continent to the few casinos that haven't banned them yet and making the big bucks, though as they tell me the pickings are getting slimmer as it's just a matter of time until they get the boot and they're running out of casinos to pillage. Either way, they've got plenty of money, so it's not a major concern, but it seems as if the appeal of a casino-hopping lifestyle ended up catering to their likes more than technology. Sure, they have all the latest do-dads and high tech gadgets to play with as a result of their financial adventures, but their pursuit of technology seemed to ultimately take a back seat to lounge singers and blinking lights
At least in my experience none of these people made a direct correlation between their technology and card counting pursuits. Most were interested in card counting before ever hitting an "enter" key, but they are brilliant coders nonetheless.. Perhaps card counting begets good programmers, not the other way around?
The house does NOT have a 90% advantage. If they did, no one would play. The house has a very small advantage, but it's more than enough. A 1% advantage at a table where a million dollars moves through the betting circles is a $10k profit, every night! And this small percentage is the STATISTICAL advantage the house has if the players all play perfectly, and they DON'T, they take chances, especially when they are loosing, so it definatly adds up to a big profit for the casino.
Smart people should realize this and will understand that gambling against a casino is a form of entertainment, not something you should ever expect to profit at.
Now, playing cards with your buddies, then your putting your wits up against someone you know... that's REAL entertainment!
M@
Krispy Cream is people
You could probably do this, but of course, the trick to get rich quick schemes is to not get too greedy.
you could either get banned really quickly, get some seed money for what ever project, or cycle your 'leet card skilz so that you only skim your profits every once in a while. so that you come in under the radar.
"It is a greater offense to steal men's labor, than their clothes"
actually no - it didn't.
Beat the Dealer was written and that was all single deck - but the Wired Article is discussing the early to mid 90's with the MIT kids and they developed a system that would work on the 6 decks (involving several players that were to not look like they were in with each other).
Casinos will always catch on and prevent anything that is winning in their casino. They now have a few companies that have a database of people that they don't want in their casino, and then they can cross reference it with who these people checked in with, eat with, are seen with, etc.
This way they can see if people are in groups or not, instead of just random players together.
There are some odd things afoot now, in the Villa Straylight.
Haven't these geeks seen Casino? Personally I would prefer to have my limbs intact. As for this article, all it will do is get people who have know idea what they are doing into counting cards, they will lose money etc etc etc. Gambling is fun, Vegas is fun, but you aren't going to make money off it, no matter how many cards you count, and if for whatever reason you make a lot of money, the casino or whatever power that rules will make sure you don't keep it long.
This isn't as much "normalization" as it is "don't take so many drugs when you're designing tables."
my grandfather, a well-known math textbook author counted cards. He tried it quite a bit as an experiment, and used some stuff in his books. Shame he never told me wether he won anything
Sig (appended to the end of comments you post, 120 chars)
I think it's a fun game, playing these kinda tricks against casinos, actually out-smarting them. That it's totally legal is even better. That the casinos don't like it is another bonus.
Reminds me of hearing people talk about slot machines, and how they see people watching them to see which ones are paying off, and all the LOL's (little old ladies) sitting in front of them pumping their social security in. The thought that one machine would start "paying off," is kinda funny. Do you think the casinos don't know about this? They WANT you to think you are seeing a pattern and they WANT you to try to use it, becuase in the end you are going to loose some money, and they will get it. The slot machines are all computer controlled, and it's not just "pay out %99 of what you get in," it's probably programmed to appear to have a pattern, anything to get you to keep playing.
Gambling against casinos is entertainment, possible some exersize for the LOL's as well, but in the end money moves from the customer to the casino. If you're having fun in the process than it's worth it. Realize that when you walk in... don't become a Marge Simpson.
M@
Krispy Cream is people
Uh, not in Boston. You'll be lucky to get a converted basement in Roxbury with only 200 grand.
And I really doubt if you can get all of that through airport security; they've tightened up quite a bit at Logan... Then again, the article doesn't mention the risk of being "randomly" picked at the gate, either.. But then again, this story seems to have happened more than a year ago...
Greedy fucks at Casino's. They rig the game against you so that you basically can't win (i.e., house has 90% advantage).
If you were to go to The Wizard of Odds You'll notice that the house edge in most games is not 90%. It's more like 2-3%. They know that people are not stupid, and while some games are horribly rigged (Slot machines for example) most of them will give out 97% of what they take in...that 3% they keep is what lets you get a luxury room for $20 / night.
Then, when a few smart people (maybe one out of 1000) come along who can count cards and actually break even or better, they bitch and whine.
Execpt that one person can literally bring down the whole casino if they have an edge. Pretend that you can win 52% of the time. It takes one minute to play one round of blackjack. If you're making $100 dollar bets, you'd be making $240 / hour off of the casino. And to think that they don't let you get away with it.
Its just a technique -- a legal one, as opposed to casino's illegal techniques of winning. Look in Hoyle's rule-books on cards. They won't mention anything about it being illegal to count cards. However, their rules for blackjack don't set it up so that the dealer has a 90% advantage.
I won't debate that card counting is legal, as long as you don't use a computer or calculator. And you're right, they don't set it up so that the dealer has a 90% advantage. The advantage is that the dealer wins should both the dealer and the player bust. There are other little differences as well, but it's not overwhelming.
By the way, does anyone here really think that the dealers don't count the cards? Bullshit. You know damn well they do.
Dealers play by a set of rules. Hit on 16 or lower. Stand on 17 or higher. That's it. Not much card counting.
Furthermore, casinos have a number of tactics to foil card-counting, such as cutting the deck, starting a new deck, or mixing in several decks.
You mean they try to randomize a game of chance? They MUST be cheating
Everyone knows there is a house advantage in the casinos. When you enter a casino, you're on private property, and thus have to play by their rules. If you don't like those rules, you can go to another casino whose rules you like. But good luck finding a casino that will let you cheat.
One of the guys I used to work for was a statistics professor at Farleigh Dickenson University a while back. He has been banned from most (if not all) the casinos in Atlantic City. He goes out to Reno and Las Vegas every once in a while for a business trip and plays. When I told him where I was going for my honeymoon (St. Lucia), he asked me to find out if they had casinos.
The trick with most predictive statistics based winning is that there is also significant losing involved. He told me not to bother unless I have several thousand dollars to lose.
Ummm, Jon, aren't you supposed to be dead...? - Otter(3800)
During my last trip to London one of the gentlemen I was there with had arrived a few days earlier and joined a casino. One evening we decided to go play. In about four hours of basic strategy play I was up nearly £300 on £10 and £15 bets. My buddy who wasn't playing any strategy was up £600 at one point but lost it all playing £100 bets. I left with my profits but when we returned the next night we were told we were no longer welcome there.
Now I wasn't card counting, I don't know if I was doing something that looked like I was, but I am sure they didn't like me taking £300 from them then wanting to come back for more.
not a game of chance a.k.a. gambling (which is illegal)
Have you ever even been to Vegas? Gambling IS legal there...
Can you imagine a casino setting up a game of skill, i.e., the swing the sledge-hammer and ring the bell? Every strong guy in the world could walk in and win money, and that's not good for business. There has to be a chance for the casino to win, or there's no point in them offering it.
A computer once beat me at chess, but it was no match for me at kick boxing -- Emo Phillips
Dealers are trained to count cards so they can monitor if players are counting cards. When the count is favorable, they can spot opportunistic bettors, and employ counter-measures if need be.
As fascinating as the saga of beating the roulette wheels was, the factoid I got from that book that has stayed with me to this day was how to cook rice without measuring. No matter how much rice you are making or what size pot you are cooking it in, add enough water to reach the first knuckle on your finger when your fingertip is touching the top of the rice. NEVER FAILS.
MIT students are certainly not the first to take a scientific approach to card counting. Back around 1979 I read a mathematics book in the engineering library at Tektronix that explained card counting in great detail. It also predicted fractals would be a big thing.
baccarat does not have 50/50 odds...in fact the oddss in baccarat are still slightly against you...but the house edge is smaller when you bet on the bank actually...a lot of people don't like that, cause you're betting against the player...but it's the way to go in terms of edge...
see here.... http://fastodds.com/gameodds/baccarat.htm
"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true." - Homer Simpson
that card-counting isn't cheating. But rather, a legitimate strategy to a probabilistic game.
Unfortunately, casinos don't like losing money. Their sole business is the fact that people come in and give them money for no real reason whatsoever. As soon as someone comes in and discovers that by following their rules they can win that money back, then they are removed from the premises.
It really does not matter if you are winning at one table or another. If they begin to think that you will take their money instead of give it to them, you will be removed. Simple as that. Card Counting is not cheating, just as keeping a poker face during a poker game bluff is not cheating. It's just good strategy.
~ kjrose
The problem then becomes picking that time. Back-counting is part of the solution. So too is the fact that machine shuffling just isn't very good for the casinos, except in terms of hands/hour, which whilst it mostly favours the house, also favours the player under certain conditions.
Two more things.
1. The maths on all this is not trivial and most people think about the problem incorrectly (ie. there is no "random" in a finite set which has had discrete operations performed on it) and it effects their maths when they do try and tackle it this way.
2. I agree with you 100% about the distractions. The kind of brain which can hold a count, up to seven side counts, track shuffles through a machine on an 8-deck shoe, remember to effectively mask play, keep an active backcount going on surrounding tables, and still smile at the dealer and appear a lucky fool, act like a chronic smoker or toilet-goer to Wong in and out effectively, etc etc is extremely rare.
Also remember that most people who say they win at cards are LYING. I do not even play Blackjack, I can't do the above with my brain. I know hundreds of _gamblers_ some of whom lie about winning at cards. I only know one person who does, actually, win at cards.
True, card counting is not illegal. But did you notice that every time he was caught, the guy *ran* out of there, rather than go into the basement to have a "talk" with the bouncers?
www.HearMySoulSpeak.com
The Casino's are the entities that are involved with and/or organized crime, not card-counting groups.
Breaking into people's appartments, stealing their money, harassing them, killing people -- this is stuff that Casino's do, not card-counters. They are the one's involved with organized crime.
The rulings by courts that Casino's can exclude individuals for any reason are unconstitutional. McDonald's can't ban anyone from coming in there; restaurants can't ban people from coming there who come there and order cheap meals along with water to save money. In other words, they can't ban the people who aren't as profitable to them. So why should Casino's be able to?
Stories like this illustrate why gambling is illegal in most states. Casinos are run by crooks and mobsters, who will use illegal tactics to maintain their profitability (i.e., breaking/entering, harassment, murder, blackmail, etc).
I agree that gambling should be legal; however, it should be tightly regulated and controlled.
Casino's don't like card counters. Tough. That's not a good enough reason to ban them from your resort. Fast food places can't ban people for any reason, why should Casino's be able to?
If Casino's have a problem with card-counting, its up to them to come up with legitimate tactics to deal with it: cutting the deck, switching dealers, using large decks, mixing more thoroughly, etc. Plenty of tactics they can use which aren't illegal.
But quite frankly, I don't care if this ruins their business. They have billions of dollars to spend. If they aren't smart enough to catch on to card-counting schemes and develop counter-measures, they deserve to go out of business.
Bunch of big whiners. Waaah! Waaah! Keep on crying because your too fucking dumb.
social sciences can never use experience to verify their statemen
Actually, I think you'll find that in most casinos dealers do not count cards and they do not double deal... why? Oh, a funny little think I like to call The Law.
Most dealers are barely making enough money to stay alive, and if they are caught doing either of these things they will be fired and will most likely end up hungry and homeless.
The Nevada Gaming Commission has very strict rules on what kind of behaviour is allowable by casinos, and cheating is not allowed. If a dealer is caught cheating (and remember those cameras watch both players and dealers) they lose their dealing priveleges and have to find a new job.
Many casinos hire professional card manipulators, but not to deal, they use them to watch dealers and look for double-deals or anything else that is illegal.
A computer once beat me at chess, but it was no match for me at kick boxing -- Emo Phillips
"So 25-125 million dollars payoff for the team.
;-)
:-D. You see this again and again - from dot com to gambling, and in particular Long Term Capital Management. If you ever have some time to read a fantastic book about something... oddly similar to the wired article, check out _When_Genius_Failed_
I wouldn't mind that in my pocket"
neither would i
but if you're going to be making money honestly (which they are) then there are cases where people have made much more (some college dropouts, for example)
This article reminds me of the stupid stories about how some high school or college student made millions during the dot-com era. I regard these as a symptom of a problem, not as a role model to follow. There ain't no such thing as a free lunch, and when someone seems to be getting one, something is broken and sooner or later it's gunna get fixed
Replace MIT students with Nobel prize winners, replace millions with billions, and throw in a potential collapse of the western financial system... it is well worth reading.
Free as in *BUUURP!*
I first started counting in high school. I had a chemistry professor that turned me on to Beat the Dealer. Every weekend, I put on a fake mustache and hit the casinos. Back in 1980, the casinos really didn't care that much about who was playing, and I was only ever asked for an ID once. Since that time, I've counted off and on and have made, oh, about $75,000 over the years. Luckily I realized fairly early that the life of a gambler is, frankly, a crappy one.
I've met several pros over the years, and, without exception, their lives suck. Divorces, endless travel, few friends, tobacco fiends. Most that have been into the game for more that ten years or so wish they had pursued a more legit career.
As the article states, to make any real money, you have to play in teams. The lone counter can make a living, but not a great one. There is a high to playing and winning, particularly when you're young and you have more cash in your pocket than any of your friends.
Long term though, follow the advice of your elders. Get an education. Get a good job. Invest wisely. Take care of your family. That's a much better recipe for happiness. I know.
Best Windows Freeware
again no...that's not true...the way to look at it is house edge...if the edge is 0%, then the odds of you winning are truly 50/50...in any case, craps and blackjack have the best edge...
Craps (double odds) 0.60%
Blackjack 0.80%
Baccarat (banker) 1.17%
Baccarat (player) 1.63%
Pai Gow Poker 2.5%
Roulette (single zero) 2.7%
Three-Card Poker 3.4%
Let It Ride 3.5%
Sportsbook Betting 4.5%
Caribbean Stud Poker 5.26%
Roulette (double zero) 5.6%
Big 6 Wheel 11.1% to 24%
Keno 25%
actually, the blackjack edge can vary greatly depending on what the rules are in the casino...
(i pulled those stats off a web page..not exactly sure how accurate...but it reflects the order i'm used to seeing)
"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true." - Homer Simpson
He started out with investors, who got a lot of money. The money that went to the team got split between the whole team. He didn't do it all the time, having to be subtle. They were just doing it in college- how many actually dropped out or made it a career? I have to stand by the idea that while the money was awesome, it wasn't about the money. Once you have a few million, a shitty little savings account can pay quite nicely. There's greedy and then there's greedy. I wouldn't want to "work" in a casino if I didn't have to, either.
I spent a year in Iraq looking for WMD and all I found was this lousy sig.
Caltech students were also responsible for the famous box-stuffing (spamming, really) of a nationwide fast food chain (McDonalds, but I can't be certain) contest in which they took home a vast majority of the winnings by computer-printing their entries.
In addition, there's a very good review of successful and legal professional gambling by the technically savvy by another Caltech alumnus that was published in "Engineering and Science," a Caltech alumni publication. Get the PDF here or here.
Can't you see that everyone is buying station wagons?
I know that virtual card machines have to maintain virtual decks, but would these card counting schemes apply to them as well? And how might that affect detection of your methods by the casino?
These guys never heard of a cashiers' check?
They act as if taking money from Mass to Nevada
is a crime or something. I think it's just journalistic sugar, though, as it sounds just
like a quote from Midnight Express.
If you win large amounts at a casino, they matter-of-factly do the tax reporting "for you", and unless the stakes they were using were ill-gotten, there was no reason for "smuggling" it.
Leaving the country with large amounts of cash is another matter.
-fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
A guy at my work used to work at the JPL branch of the team, and has some pretty interesting stories. (JPL in Pasedena has a bunch of MIT grads and other assorted geniuses, and is a lot closer to Vegas than Boston is, so it's a natural fit for the club.) He was never one of the really big high-rollers, but did manage to get to go to Vegas with 25K or 50K several times.
On interesting thing he mentioned is that the club really started to fall apart when the group's average winnings began to fall far below what theory predicted. There were two possible explanations: Vegas had changed something to make the game more in their favor (but I guess nobody ever figured out what they changed) or the members were getting greedy and underreporting winnings back to the group.
One of those stupid little monopoly-money type casinos where the cash could be used to bid at an auction at the end--things like hammocks, phones, etc.
/. after all), and I happened to notice the roulette wheel. They had the odds posted beside it.
Anyway, I was wandering around the tables while my date was off dancing with her boyfriend (hey, I am posting on
50-1 payoff on guessing the right number.
There are only 38 slots to pick from.
Well, my first attempt at putting a chip on every spot got me throttled by a football player who said I was messing up the board. My later attempt of just telling the guy working it what my bet was just had him handing me 12 chips on every spin.
Very entertaining, humorous, and extremely sad that no one else in the junior or senior class happened to notice this.
I demand a million helicopters and a DOLLAR!
So a magic question, then, is what's X? Can you win $5000 a week at one casino and not be noticed? $10k?
The problem with that system is that anybody who is that good of a gambler will, of course, get greedy, and eventually get caught.
www.HearMySoulSpeak.com
I tried to google the reference, but about a year ago the NY Time Sunday Magazine or Wired had a story about professional card counters in Southern California card shops. It sounded like a pretty grueling job. These syndicates hired young men to gamble around the clock under avery strick set of playing rules. The odds were slightly in the players favor under these rules, but you needed to turn over hundreds of thousands of dollars a week to realize these odds. The card shops know who these syndicates are and who the players are and dont discourage them. The professionals seem to attracts lots of amateurs to the tables who then lose in favor of the house. The job gets tired quickly for the young men who play.
Sorry,
If they don't like card counters in the game, they should drop the game from their floor, or modify the game's rules so they can maintain their advantage without kicking people out.
The whole idea of being able to kick out people who have a perceived advantage rubs me the wrong way... If they're cheating, arrest them - otherwise the game is there to play, so play it.
Infact, the first thought I had was a Invader Zim flashback to Megadoomer - two kids playing and when one has a perceived advantage, the other yells "I'm not gonna play with you any more!"
"Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence." - Charles de Gaulle
Check out this amazing article about the first wearable computer built by Claude Shannon and Edward Thorp to predict roulette results.
Stop worrying about the risks of nuclear power and start worrying about the risks of not using nuclear power.
1) Dealers generally don't know if you're counting cards. The guy on the other end of the surveillance camera, on the other hand, does.
:)
2) Playing a "standard" game (always split 8s, hit on foo, stand on bar, yaada) will always be against you-- casinos aren't stupid. However, anywhere where casinos have to compete against one another, you have a chance to find "better rules"-- for the most part, anything that gives the player a choice is good. There are odds calculators out there on the web to tell you what you ought to "expect" from a given game. Expect odds for any game on a cruise ship to suck rocks.
3) Once you've found a close-to-even game (only off by a percent or so), then you can swing the odds barely in your favor by counting cards. Your expected payout is going to be less than a percent, and the fact that you've deviated from the "standard" play when the count is good will be a signal to the security camera operator to inform you that the house simply can't offer you a blackjack game anymore.
4) Even without counting, you can "make money" playing blackjack. On a good table, you can basically expect to keep your losses to a sufficient minimum (over large amounts of hands) to cover free drinks. Cheap entertainment over the long haul.
5) Even counting, you can't expect to walk up to a $5 table with twenty bucks and expect to parlay it into, well, anything. You need enough of a bankroll to handle long strings of "bad luck"-- numbers I've seen are between 200 and 400 times the wager at the table.
6) Similarly, a night of counting cards isn't going to make you fabulously wealthy overnight. If you play fifty hands at a $5 table, and you've pushed the odds into your favor by a half a percent, which is really good, your expected return is to walk out the door with $1.25 more than you started with. Glamorous, huh?
7) It's not illegal to count cards. It's also not illegal for a casino to tell you they're unable to offer you a particular sort of game.
With all of this, you have to play an awful lot of blackjack before you've parlayed your bankroll to where you can graduate to a bigger table with bigger payoffs. You can't lose count, you can't "feel lucky". Most people are better off simply playing the "rules" and making it back on free drinks...
-JDF
Just wondering, how long can someone be banned?
If they were all banned in their 20s, what's to stop them from doing it again in their 40s?
I think I could be happy on a few million for 20yrs....
hmmm...what are you doing to plan for retirement? Studying math....
"Only one thing, is impossible for god: to find any sense in any copyright law on the planet." Mark Twain
The funny part is that when I loaded the page, I got a casino pop-under.
Any sufficiently simple magic can be passed off as mere advanced technology.
I was thinking that the whole way through reading the article (yes I read all 6 pages before deciding to post a comment,
Some things I found rather un-nerving though were this on the fourth page:
My first few days in Las Vegas, I get a small taste of the new paranoia. I awake one morning to discover that my laptop has been stolen out of my locked hotel room while I slept.
And this on the sixth page:
Lewis decided to go it on his own, forming an alliance with Jill Thomas and Andrew Tay. Then a few months later, someone broke into Thomas' apartment, stealing more than $50,000 in blackjack winnings from a safe in her bedroom. Although he has no proof, Lewis suspects that the robbery had something to do with the MIT team.
Pretty crazy stuff, almost like something out of an X-Files conspiracy episode or other equivalent conspiracy show/movie. I wouldn't imagine some Casino thugs ordering a break-in of someone's house to steal a measly $50k. But, I could imagine some Casino thugs ordering a break-in of someone's hotel room to steal some card counting trade secrets.
I've been a blackjack card counter since the late 1970's. I started out using the Revere APC system but switched in recent years to the excellent yet simple Knock-Out unbalanced count system.
:)
This article, as with most Wired pieces these days, has a few grains of truth along with a lot of hype and dazzle. Here's a few points that should be made.
Fact #1: You don't have to be a math genius to count cards. Using the Knockout system, I just start with a count of zero and add 1 to my count every time I see a card with a value of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7. I subtract 1 from my count every time I see a 10 or face card. The size of my bet changes as the count goes up. It's that simple.
Fact #2: You can't make money at Blackjack unless you already have money. The way the statistics work out, you need a bankroll of approximately 1000 times your minimum bet to have a reasonable assurance that a bad statistical swing doesn't wipe you out. That means about a $5000 bankroll just to sit down at a $5 minimum blackjack table. Playing at that level will net you approximately $17.50 per hour.
Fact #3: It's pretty boring. While everyone else is having fun, you're sitting there playing a game that is the gambling equivalent of working a factory job. It's repetitive and tedious; you get penalized cash every time you make a mistake. Most people find that they don't have the discipline to do this over the long haul.
Fact #4: It's the antithesis of glamorous. The people you meet who are really trying to make money from the casino industry are a pretty unsavory lot. The few who have the discipline, bankroll and skill to beat the casinos also realize that it's important to look just like another player. The professional card counter at a given table is probably the paunchy, middle-aged guy in the "I love Las Vegas" tourist T-shirt.
Fact #5: It's a dying art. In the 70's, the games were so good, that it took very little to get an edge. The casinos aren't run by mobsters anymore though, they're run by Harvard graduates who understand the games just as well as you do. The rules aren't as favorable, more decks are in play, and they're introducing "Universal Shufflers" that have the capacity to destroy the concept of card counting permanently. The casinos make their money from slots now; they don't have to offer a hyper-competitive blackjack game to lure in players.
Fact #6: If you have a large bankroll, the willingness to study, the discipline to stick to your game plan no matter what, you can make some money playing blackjack. If you have all of the above, however, I guarantee you that you can find a better way to make money.
All of that being said, blackjack isn't a bad hobby. Friends of mine like to gamble, and my business sometimes finds me in Vegas. Instead of handing my wallot over to the casino, I instead make some money, have some free drinks and meet interesting people. That's not so bad.
Just don't listen to too much hype from Wired.
Neat article. However, I was rather perturbedby the opening anecdote about ferrying an enormous amount of cash through Logan Airport- the same one that the hijackers that destroyed the WTC flew out of. Bricks of hundred dollar bills, box cutters, no questions asked... just what the hell does security do there anyway?
"FDA staff reviewers expressed concern about the number of patients who were left out of the study because they died."
Instead, I recommend people start with Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack or Olaf's Knock-out Blackjack.
A good blackjack discussion website for serious players is Sanford Wong's bj21.com.
The Wired article is surprisingly accurate; usually the media makes a hash of articles about card-counting.
P.S. to any Griffin employees out there: I don't know anything about blackjack. Please remove me from your files. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. These aren't the droids you're looking for. :-)
I play Nerd-Folk!
I remember that, but later, well, even John Carmack got booted:
.plan file link. :/
<I>A few of us took a couple days off in vegas this weekend. After about
ten hours at the tables over friday and saturday, I got a tap on the shoulder...
Three men in dark suits introduced themselves and explained that I was welcome
to play any other game in the casino, but I am not allowed to play
blackjack anymore.
Ah well, I guess my blackjack days are over. I was actually down a bit for
the day when they booted me, but I made +$32k over five trips to vegas in the
past two years or so.
I knew I would get kicked out sooner or later, because I don't play "safely".
I sit at the same table for several hours, and I range my bets around 10 to 1.<I>
Sorry can't find the
Will code a sig generator for food
There are a ton of card counting techniques, and I believe it was in the rec.games.blackjack FAQ where I saw some payoff percentages associated with different methods.
I wonder how easy it would be to make a genetic algoritm that would find the "optimum" card counting technique.
Need Free Juniper/NetScreen Support? JuniperForum
Strictly speaking, even/odd and red/black bets on roulette aren't 50/50 either. They pay 1:1, as you'd expect from a 50/50 bet, but there are 38 spaces on a roulette wheel (37 in Monte Carlo, I'm told though)- 1-36 red/black odd/even, and two (or one) green zeros, which provide another color, and are neither even nor odd (you can debate whether zero is even, but the casino will not be swayed to your POV). This means your odds of hitting red on a red bet on a Vegas wheel are 18/38, or ~47.3%, but the payoff is only 1:1, as if the chance were actually 50%- it would be 1.11:1 if roulette weren't a way for casinos to rip you off. Incidentally, this means you can bet on both red and black, and still lose.
"FDA staff reviewers expressed concern about the number of patients who were left out of the study because they died."
Nope. You're forgetting the zeroes which, as I understand it, are neither red nor black, and neither even nor odd. Me, if I want to get rid of extra money, I just set fire to it at home and save myself the plane fare to Vegas.
This next song is very sad. Please clap along. -- Robin Zander
Pre-Night Court, Harry Anderson was a professional magician. Still is, I guess, but I bring it up to recommend his book Games You Can't Lose (B&N). He covers a lot, and with great style, including Blackjack strategy and winning legally at Craps, including the really good bets that they don't mark on the tables.
Plus, for all those hotshots out there who think it's cool to get tossed out of a casino, Anderson was banned from playing cards anywhere in the state of Nevada. Tells the story in the book....
N
-- Watch the REAL Jon Katz.
Casinos wiped out card counters ages ago with massive decks that screw up the math. Winning blackjack is still pretty easy with memorization of the tables and techniques Avery Cardoza came up with in his book Winning Casino Blackjack for the Con-Counter." Anyone who wants to come out ahead in blackjack really, really needs to read this book.
>Their sole business is the fact that people come
>in and give them money for no real reason >whatsoever.
BUt, but . . . doesn't the
hawk, Las Vegan in exile
I love to play blackjack. I used to play it a lot, but have since waned in my activities (most notably after 4 consecutive unlucky trips to Las Vegas).
It's really hard to look at an article like this and not run down to your local bookstore and pickup some of the many texts that show you the basics of card counting, but before any one does, there are a few things to consider:
You won't win a lot of money unless you have a lot of money to loose. Never, ever gamble with money you can't afford to loose; it's that simple. If you are planning a gambling trip, you have to set yourself a limit, and figure if you loose it all, you're still going to make rent, pay your bills, be able to get back home etc.
That having been said, lets assume you have $500 to gamble with. In fair conditions, playing in perfect form, (this is very, very hard to do) over the long run in a weekend, on averages, you may end up making ~$12 an hour. Yes, you could win much more, but on the other hand you could loose too. It's kind of hard to justify putting that kind of money on the line when your best expectation in the long run is to end up with the same amount of money you would get if you were working (albeit tax free as long as you don't win too much)
Then consider that if you learn the fundamentals of basic strategy (which is easy), the casinos edge over you really isn't that great, and you can take a smaller sum (say $100) last a long time, perhaps even get a few extra bucks, and just have a good time with your friends. I always take Vegas newbies to the Stardust, where you can get a $1 table 24/hr a day. Sure, they have a six deck shoe, but the play is slow and it's easy to learn. I find I have a good deal of fun sitting down with a $20 bill, making it last a long time, meanwhile getting juiced on free drinks (ok, $1 drinks, because it's hard to get a waitress and they won't come back often unless you tip them). The rule of thumb is, sit down with 20, leave with 10 and be completely sloshed. (never, ever, ever, get drunk trying to count cards or gambling with real money. It makes you play sloppy, and the booze silences that little voice inside your head that says if you go back to the ATM again you can't make rent).
The Internet is generally stupid
He was able to make money off of it, but I'm not sure how much.
The FBI also used card counting many years ago when they did some undercover investigation in Las Vegas. They siphoned cash through the Casinos and then did statistical analysis on how much of it made it to the banks. They used Card counting to limit their losses.
Free Software: Like love, it grows best when given away.
lol - Ocean's 11 reference?
I consulted on some neural net stuff for a company that does exactly what I said - there are a few of them that all compete.
I am surprised that they share the DB, but I guess it ends up being in their best interests.
There are some odd things afoot now, in the Villa Straylight.
Yeah, Swingers had a great portrayal of a vegas casino!
I can't wait to lose my shorts while a bunch of 80 yr olds look on with delight (although they're probably just happy to still be alive!)
double down, baby!
In the future, I would want to not be isolated from my friends in the Space Station.
worse, ever not strong guy would know they would lose. its OK if every strong guy wns, as long as there is enough guys arounfd to try and loose. As a matter of fact it is neccessary for a casino to have winners, or nobody would ever go.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Is why Poker is better than Blackjack.
In a town fille with college students you can stroll into a random frat party, sit in on or start up a poker game, and walk out 2 hours later with 500$. Blackjack is for suckers.
Kintanon
Check out JoshJitsu.info for Brazilian Ji
funny, when I went to dealer school I seemed to miss that class...
They eye in the sky is trained to catch people, the dealer is little more then an auotmaton, as far as the casino is concerned.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
The low house edge for blackjack already assumes that you are playing perfectly (i.e. basic strategy)... If you DON'T play perfectly then the house will rape you just as well as at any other game.
Even playing perfectly though you will lose over the long run at blackjack unless you count and wang in/out or modify your bets significantly to take advantage of the count information. Winning "more times than not" without counting just means you're on a lucky streak (which could be hundreds of games long).
In late 2000/early 2001 I spent 6 months playing on the team that MIT has since been rolled into. The Wired article, while admittedly full of dazzle and drama, is mostly dead-on.
Your facts are not quite correct:
Fact #1: Maybe you don't have to be a math genius, but you have to be pretty f-ing sharp. The count you've described is only the first step in a real counting sytem. Your "knockout system" is called the "running count"; the "true count" is the running count divided by the number of decks remaining in the shoe (which is determined by subtracting the number of decks in the discard tray from the total number of decks per shoe) rounded down to the nearests whole number. The true count determines your bet - you multiply the true count times your base unit (say $100) to determine your bet for the next hand. Today's team counter has to do all this on the fly, instantaneously, while simultaneously chatting up the dealer, checking out the waitress's cleavage, and doing whatever else it takes to look like the average Joe Gambler. Then he has to signal his BP to make the appropriate bet and vary his play according to the count. It requires significant mental resources!
Fact #2: Your math is correct, but there is a way to make money at blackjack without having a huge bankroll. You play on a team - a few senior members can provide most of the bankroll (and take most of the profits, alas).
Fact #3: I've always found counting to be a bizarre mix of boredom and pure adrenal high. Yes, you're repetitively processing the same data stream for hours on end. But you're also this undercover superhero of sorts - using your superior abilities to make gobs of money under the unsuspecting (well, when things go well) noses of these greedy corporate thugs. It's the purest form of excitement I've ever found.
Fact #4: I've never counted solo, but being on the inside of a successful team is quite glamorous. There's just too much money around for it not to be.
FAct #5: Possibly true. Counting only works if the casinos don't stop you, and they only don't stop you if they don't realize you're counting. When mainstream magazines start publishing articles about your system, it ain't too clandestine anymore! Counters are in a continual arms race with the casinos, and this particular weapon is about obsolete. Counters are still inventing new ones, but things like continuous shufflers and facial recognition software are getting harder and harder to counter. It may be that we're reaching the point where a counter and his mind can't beat the technological countermeasures used by the casinos.
Ever see those "We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone" signs? Fact is, if I own a property, I can tell anybody to get the hell out and come back, and if they come back, it is "criminal trespass"!!! Read the statutes for your state, I guarantee you you do not have a right to enter somebody else's property against their will! And if you really think you can't ban anyone, why not give out your address on the 'net, and we'll all come over and crash at your place for a couple weeks, ok?
"Freedom means freedom for everybody" -- Dick Cheney
What it essentially boils down to is that the casinos are asking people to choose to deliberately forget specific things, as if that was even possible.
Don't label something "offtopic" unless you know the topic well enough to tell what's on topic.
to do as you're suggesting, I'm not saying people don't do it, but I can tell you I was flown to El Paso, TX to testify by the DEA to testify against someone that did 4 $3000 cashiers checks in a day --- they couldn't make a drug case, but they could make a money laundering/structured transaction case -- you don't want to mess with the reporting paperwork -- there are lots of safegaurds in place to see aggregates that trigger reports as well...
But there's a somewhat famous story of a guy (occasionally attributed to MIT) who found a way to beat roulette, sort of. The idea was that although the game is in the favor of the house, if you're allowed to place bets while the ball is rolling you can shift the odds in your favor. The guy put a computer in his shoe heel to tell him where to bid, with some sort of feedback and a wire running through his pantleg.
I Browse at +4 Flamebait
Open Source Sysadmin
Anyway, I did some research, and strictly speaking you're right. There's no law against card counting, only the casino's right to bar known counters from its tables. However, a counter can get into legal trouble. If you try to sneak into a casino that's barred (which might be a casino you've never actually played at!) you can be arrested for trespassing. Even worse, they can refuse to give you your winnings!