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Internet Traffic Still Growing Quickly
linuxscrub writes "I guess the previous articles about internet traffic doubling/[time period] being wrong were wrong? A new IDC report states that internet traffic will nearly double annually until 2007. They even use /.'s favorite unit of capacity/storage, the LOC. They predict that internet traffic will be 64,000 LOC/day! Wow, 64000 LOC, that sure sounds impressive!!"
it's all due to pr0n and gaming....
How much is 1 loc in gigabytes?
:)
And in the article they talk about petabits. Im confused
I fought the corporate America, and the corporate America bought the law.
If you're gonna use an obscure acronym three times, write it in full the first time.
Free Java games for your phone: Tontie, Sokoban
but if the Library Of Congress continue initiatives to archive the net, even if all traffic is not new content, the unit is not constant.
Every tradition has to start somewhere, right?
Free Java games for your phone: Tontie, Sokoban
over and over and over... guys, there is no command.com on my system. Give it a rest!
Wee more karma to the ACs!
IDC Finds that Broadband Adoption Will Drive Internet Traffic Growth
27 Feb 2003
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., February 27, 2003 - IDC predicts that the volume of Internet traffic generated by end users worldwide will nearly double annually over the next five years, increasing from 180 petabits per day in 2002 to 5,175 petabits per day by the end of 2007. To put these figures into perspective, the entire printed collection of the Library of Congress amounts to only 10 terabytes of information. By 2007, IDC expects Internet users will access, download, and share the information equivalent of the entire Library of Congress more than 64,000 times over, every day.
"Some industry observers have speculated that slowing growth in Internet traffic is at the root of the current telecom malaise, but IDC research shows that not only is Internet traffic growth strong, but it will continue at near triple digit rates over the next five years," said Sterling Perrin, senior research analyst, Optical Networks at IDC.
This has some interesting implications for telecommunications equipment suppliers, particularly in the optical market. "As long as the total amount of voice and data traffic on the network continues to increase, then the need will arise for carriers to buy equipment, such as next-generation optical, that transports and manages it cheaper and more efficiently than the earlier generation of pure SONET-based products," said Perrin.
The IDC study finds that, although growth in the number of Internet users will continue to be an important traffic driver, the migration of those Internet users to bigger access pipes will be even more significant. In particular, broadband adoption by consumers around the world will make this the fastest growing and largest segment in terms of Internet traffic volume generated. By 2007, IDC believes that consumers will account for 60% of all Internet traffic generated, versus roughly 40% for business users. Mobile Internet users are expected to have only a minimal impact on overall traffic volume during the forecast period.
IDC's recently released study, Worldwide Bandwidth End-User Forecast and Analysis, 2003-2007: More is Still Not Enough (IDC #28875) provides a five-year forecast of global Internet traffic growth over the next five years, broken down by business, consumer, and mobile user segments. The study, which quantifies how much Internet traffic will be generated by end-users, draws on a wealth of IDC survey data including IDC's Internet Commerce Market Model, version 8.3, as well as IDC's forecasts for broadband and mobile access
To purchase this document, call IDC's sales hotline at 508-988-7988 or email sales@idc.com.
None of them are inspiring. I was thinking maybe I could run for election next time with just one promise, "I will work to lay the backbone for a fiber optics network to eventually reach into every house in our electorate!". Then we'll see the amount of data sent over the internet more than doubled each time :)
Anyone who says this growth is logarithmic is wrong. It's exponential. Cue a horde of morons saying otherwise.
-Mark
It stands for [L]ibrary [o]f [C]ongress.
Okay. So let me get a couple of things straight. LOC = Library of Congress, right? And they're moving 64,000 of these around PER DAY?
THAT'S ASTOUNDING!!! Have you ever been to their main building, the Thomas Jefferson Building? It's freakin' HUGE!
Where'd they find 64,000 of these buildings and just how exactly are they moving them around??
Maybe I should've posted this as a question to Ask Slashdot.
I've been hitting the Internet Radio pretty heavily recently. 128 kbps streams whenever I can get them. Not many are free, still, but there's enough to keep me happy.
Which makes me wondere if the Next Big Thing won't be Internet TV.
Not crummy little windows, mad pixelation, and choppy frame rates, but real, HD-quality, big-window content-on-demand, bypassing the satellite and cable companies entirely.
Good-bye "channels". Hello IPv6 URI's.
So how much is one official LOC? :)
the size of the LOC is doubling every century or something.
that given 64000 LOC a day the world's major Internet routes are still peered on 1200 baud modems or Joe Hacker hasn't made his quota for many moons. Where do we go from here?
In all seriousness, they can't mean Lines Of Code, surely?
Resistance is futile. Reactance buggers it up.
The link is just to a press release for "Worldwide Bandwidth End-Use Forecast and Analysis, 2003-2007: More Is Still Not Enough"
The document itself can be yours for the tiny sum of $4,500, surely an absolute bargain considering is contains an amazing FIFTEEN pages!
A pizza of radius z and thickness a has a volume of pi z z a
Of course the traffic may not be to chase after obscure documents, but simply more larger files, more peer-to-peer, more p0rn, etc...
I wonder if the traffic can be correlated back to the actual number of "transactions" that are being done on the Internet? Like when I visit a website, a lot of the traffic (large banners, pop-up, etc) aren't really what I am doing or after.
Is this simply a bandwith increase or are we talking about more real transactions? Probablly a bit of both...
D.O.U.O.S.V.A.V.V.M.
Shouldn't be doing this, but I can't resist. Before the partially /.'ed article loaded I did look it up at E2:
Lines Of Code.
A particularly clueless method of "measuring" the output of a programmer, motivated by the fact that "we're paying her to write lines of code!"
This ignores such trivial objective matters as the difficulty or quality of the code, as well as the obvious subjective matters (I can write 5 good lines one day and 1000 the next).
When a suit starts talking LOC (and kLOC), it's time to break out the code generators: M4, YACC, LEX, and most importantly custom-built programs that write programs. All of these enable the programmer to leverage effort to create LOC (to use a turn of phrase said suits might understand).
And that's just plane wrong in this context;
LOC == Libraries of Congress
Look a monkey!
animal or vegetable? Sounds delicious either way.
5.175 petabits is about 1 bit per square centimeter of earth.
Johan Veenstra
Your infinite number of monkeys is too small! (That, or the typewriters broke)
--
Account, no thanks, got enough already
If the Library of Congress is 10 terabytes that's less than 300 lifetimes' worth. (Which 300 people should be included?)
Another useful measure is the EB, or Encyclopaedia Britannica, which is about 200Mb. So one LoC = 50,000 EBs = 300 lifetimes.
They're using demons imprisoned in fireplaces as a source of power.
[This is a book reference]
Yay me!
Yet another pointless unit to make people go woo. Along with the width of a hair.
They might as well talk about the total mass of all electrons and photons (you never know) ammounting to the waight of 29 elehpants with the number growing to 30 elephants and two donkeys. Have these people hear of SI units?
Mouse powered Chips, Open source Processors and Lego
[L]ibrary [o]f [C]ongress, eh? I was trying to figure out what the hell [L]ines [o]f [C]ode meant in that context.
It is intresting to consider that nobody yet has considered the rise in broadband (especially in the UK) on the rise in internet traffic. Whereas previously the standard 56K (if you where really lucky) restricted internet usage it terms of download speed and bandwidth, broadband has opened it up and now massive files (e.g. whole Linux distriubtions) can be downloaded in less than a day.
Murphy's Law of Research: Enough research will tend to support your theory.
They predict that internet traffic will be 64,000 LOC/day! Wow, 64000 LOC, that sure sounds impressive!!
Just take a friendly guess where they are all going! Slashdotting anything and everything stepping on their way..
love slashdot. populate it. use it. abuse it. hate it. kill it. miss it. stop following links, they only kill servers.
64,000 LOCs/day!?!?!
What happens when it goes past 65,535 LOCs/day!!!
Does IPv6 fix this?
And if it is compressed what type of compression do they use?
What storage format are they basing this on? 1 LOC from Microsoft word compare to 1 LOC from say Open OFFICE would have radically diffrent sizes..
If they are going to pull some value out there rear and name it, the least they can do is provide full technical details on that unit of measurement.
Personal Website
You didn't take into account the amount of visualization (images) a person does during a day. That's thinking too.
occultae nullus est respectus musicae - originally a Greek proverb
I wonder what percentage of that astounding amount of traffic was actually created (written, composed etc.) by the sender.
These days, most people know that "multimedia" and "software demos" make up a large chunk of internet traffic. Most of this is copyrighted by someone else.
If only there were a practical and legal way to store this information in a central depository. With widespread multicasting, the sheer amount of internet traffic would be greatly reduced.
"Smoking helps you lose weight - one lung at a time" -- A. E. Neumann
so I took it you meant Lines Of Code?
The best weapon of a dictatorship is secrecy, but the best weapon of a democracy should be the weapon of openness.
frell? are they going to be gradually taking the caps off :P surely these numbers arent coming from afghanistan.
I know you are psychotic, but please make an effort.
How much of IDC's numbers are based on new users versus page bloat?
Just from the increase in graphics, flash, and java in web pages alone could acount for a doubling in bandwidth per year. Back in the Mosaic days Web pages were so light compared to what they are today.
At the same time the price of hard drives and RAM keep falling to record low. Nowadays it is routine to have 1GB of RAM and 100's GB for hard drives, soon we will be counting in TB.
Really it was no wonder that IDC predicted traffic will continue to increase. How could it be otherwise !!! In this view, perhaps the LOC will become the basic term for bandwidth/storage in the long run ?
Just like with the VCR, the porn industry gives consumers something they really want to consume. If the porn industry made HDTV 1080i on-demand video available for download, I'll bet HDTV and broadband would quickly become commonplace almost overnight!
"You didn't take into account the amount of visualization (images) a person does during a day. That's thinking too."
So now we have to figure out if we think in jpeg, gif or png?
Have a look at the traffic statistics of the public peering points in Europe:
LINX - London - 25Gbit/s
AMSIX - Amsterdam - 11Gbit/s
DECIX - Frankfurt - 10Gbit/s
If you look at it most of them double traffic even faster than in 12 month. I think it's closer to 9 month.
--
Andre
180 petabits per day? What kind of measurement is that? Where was it measured? How was it measured? Who was included? Were bits counted twice?
Just to give you an idea, I work for a large IP carrier, and we peak around oh, 200Gbps aggregate traffic entering the network. Gigabits/second is a good measurement of traffic, as is total gigabytes/terabytes... but to use the term petabit, implies they're using bandwidth, not data, and that asks where that was measured and how? There's not a lot of 200Gbps networks in the world.
This report was obviously written before the US anticompetitive DSL ruling. What effect will DSL gouging by the baby bells have on consumer adoption rates? I don't have the bucks to buy the report and see if they factor in pricing.
Keep in mind that IDC sells the document that details this fact. They also sell other things that put it in their best interest for this report to say what it does. After all, do you think they'd be much use to anyone as an intelligence gathering organization if they only had to report "nope, not much going on here!" Remember, whenever someone talks about something that they are selling, consider that the statements should be verified before taken as fact :)
For your security, this post has been encrypted with ROT-13, twice.
This is the single largest reason traffic is increasing out of sight, and was never on anyone's prediction list.
Disclaimer: Spam includes mail, popups, popunders, etc.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
Current data:
180 petabits/day = 22.5 petabytes/day = 273 gigabytes/sec.
Presuming 250 million people using the Internet, that's 1118 bytes/sec for each person, or 92 MB/day. Are you doing your part?
2007 prediction:
5,175 petabits/day = 650 petabytes/day = 7.66 terabytes/sec.
Presuming 1 billion people using the Internet, that's 7,850 bytes/sec per person, or 647 MB/day. An average of one CD per day per person.
If that is true, and all continues more or less the same, by 2007 consumers traffic will count for more than just 60%
*ducks
There aint no pancake so thin it doesn't have two sides.
I am not impressed. 64.000 lines of code? What is that? One Linux kernel source?
(attempt at humour)
In practice, most of what is delivered over the internet is Loads Of Crap. The size of a single Load just happens to be the same amount of data as you'll find in the Library of Congress.
Convert RSS to HTML - integrate webfeeds into your website
Can I get a couple of bagels to go with those LOCs? Onion or blueberry, please...
Thanks!
Bruce Lane, KC7GR,
Blue Feather Technologies
Everybody knows this is nonsense: it's only two bits, 1 and 0, but moving very , very fast!
Call me old fashioned, but I like a dump to be as memorable as it is devastating - Bender
Wee more copyright infringement to the ACs!
www.timcoleman.com is a total waste of your time. Never go there.
I wasn't thinking Libraries of Congress. "Lines of code? Well, I guess you could measure text throughput that way. But why?"
Someone wrote a CGI script for Apache that responded by using the exploit to fix it *and* make the admin aware of the problem. If I remember correctly, it did these:
:-)
- install the necessary MS patch to prevent the exploit
- set the computer up to display an explanatory message halfway through next time it booted
- shut down Windows
Not legal to use, of course, but if you're going to use the exploit, you might as well do it constructively
I think in SVG. Lossless zooming is very important to me.:)
Is this a sigs-optional kind of place? 'Cause I am totally down with that if you know what I mean.
Exponential growth is the same as a geometric increase, OK?
:-)
:= exp{b log a} - this works as expected when b is an integer or a rational, and also gives you sensible answers for b irrational, and answers that are no weirder than the rest of complex numbers for b complex.
:-)
Doubling every [year, week, nanosecond] means x = A.2^{kt} for some suitable constants A and k; that's equivalent to x = A exp{kt log 2}, so it's also exponential growth.
(k depends on the unit you measure time in, and x=exp{kt} is exponential growth for any value of k: otherwise you'd get things that were exponential growth when you measure in years, but not when you measure in months or decades or Mars years or something
In fact, that's how you define raising to any power, formally. The "definition" by repeated multiplication ("a^5 = a*a*a*a*a") starts to break when you want to raise to the power of a complex or irrational number, so you *define* a^b
(If you don't think this is necessary, please try multiplying a by itself pi+sqrt(-3) times and explain how you did it
Exponential expansion for N^x is where x is held constant and N increases, e.g. 2^2, 3^2, 4^2, etc.
That's not what doubling every year does. Geometric expansion for N^x is where N is held constant and x increses, e.g. 2^2, 2^3, 2^4, etc.
This is geometric.
This has some interesting implications for telecommunications equipment suppliers, particularly in the optical market. "As long as the total amount of voice and data traffic on the network continues to increase, then the need will arise for carriers to buy equipment, such as next-generation optical, that transports and manages it cheaper and more efficiently than the earlier generation of pure SONET-based products," said Perrin
so I might not need to flip burgers after all once I get my electrical engg degree.
Has anyone checked the past performance of the predictors? Does IDC sell a research report that says "we were right 70% of the time for the last 5 years" that costs $4500 as well? Or maybe they could sell a report "Dot Bomb, we knew it was coming" for $4500.
I guess someone is buying these, what I want to know is how many "*BSD is dying" posts make up a LOC and are we there yet?
How many natalie portmans is that?
A byproduct of this is incorrectly routed "bits" falling out of routers connected to the internet. I left a port on our main router unplugged and my server room filled up with bricks, dictionarys and reading lamps....
Plug those ports now!!
Personally, I think we should use "whole internets" as storage measurements. They would be just as accurate as LOCs, I bet. And the great thing is, the basic unit would increase in size over time.
:P. we'd have to figure out how much can actually be stored, of course...
So you right now, a $200 hard drive could store, maybe, 46 picoWOIs, and in the future, a $200 hard drive might still store 46 picoWOIs, since the size of the internet goes up!
Or how about 'brainfulls'? About the amount of information that can be stored in a human brain. That would be kind of cool
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
Quasimodo - now that name rings a bell.
Pavlov did an experiment with cats as well:
Day 1
Rang bell.
Cat ate food.
Day 2
Rang bell.
Cat scratched couch.
Day 3
Rang bell.
Cat fucked off.
Day 4
Cat rang bell.
I ate food.
(With apologies to Eddie Izzard.)
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography
Too bad it'd still be ambiguous reference, thanks to ubiquitous use of "lines of code" by PHBs.
would be the juggernaut full of DATs, to renew the old adage about bandwidth.
Google passes Turing test : see my journal
There is, in fact, no reason to believe that any given natural phenomenon,
however marvelous it may seem today, will remain forever inexplicable.
Soon or late the laws governing the production of life itself will be
discovered in the laboratory, and man may set up business as a creator
on his own account. The thing, indeed, is not only conceivable; it is
even highly probable.
-- H.L. Mencken, 1930
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