Slashdot Mirror
Astronomers Upset About Asteroid Panic
DrMorpheus writes "According to the New Scientist, astronomers are horrified by press scares over asteroids - including the recent furore over QQ47 - which briefly had a one-in-a-million chance of crashing into our planet in 2014. So much so that they are toning down the scale they use to rate the threat posed by asteroids in an attempt to discourage journalists from covering potential collisions. Some even want the way asteroids are assessed to be completely overhauled."
Newsgroups: sci.astro,sci.astro.seti,sci.answers,news.answers
Subject: stinking reporters
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Followup-To: press
Date: 17 Sep 2003 19:35:25 -0400
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Ok polpee. We need to reign it in a bit on the atroesid cemmtons, uamky? Form now on, I want all ceerrnnsdpcooe hnavig to do wtih eatrh killres slambrced like tihs, ukmay?
No more talk aoubt how tsehe atsdoiers, umkay? If you're ccnettaod by the psers, jsut rinmed them taht tehy're more lleiky to get kellid by lgiitnnhg 10,000 tmies an hour than to have an ateosrid flal on them, then hang up...uamky?
A programmer is a machine for converting coffee into code.
Even as the commotion over QQ47 was dying down
Umm... what commotion exactly? I know it got some coverage on a slow news day, but seriously, was anyone actually worried about this?
W
-------------------
This is my SIG. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." Mark Twain
At some point in the future, Earth will get hit by a global-killer! That's statistically probable, too! (given infinite time... well, ok... maybe we don't have INFINITE time, but... close enough for government work).
;)
Oops! Shouldn't have posted this... now the National Inquirer will have fodder to run with this overly-used story for another 10 years.
I'll start worrying about the accuracy of asteroid collision prediction after they manage to figure out how to predict rain 3 days from now with better than 70% accuracy. 8/
Diplomacy is the art of saying, "Nice doggie!" until you can find a rock.
The hype and panic brings needed attention to an often overlooked scientific field: watching out for big ass shit that could annihilate us. We spend far too little on this kind of work as it is.
do we really need to be notified every time an asteroid is within a percentage of a collision course? the media should focus on the more interesting statistics of astronomy.. like.. uh.. mars!
Reporters: The Sky is Falling, The Sky is Falling!
Scientists: STFU!
Reporters: Aw, damn.
Try to hack my 31337 firewall!
Having a 1 on the Torino scale is kind of like having a Blue on the Terrorism Threat Scale, or a DEFCON 4 instead of 5. It's kind of cute but it's not very meaningful.
Changing the scale won't change the sensationalist, advertising-powered press at all. They'll continue to report asteroids as "harbinger of the approaching eschaton" whether it's on the Torino or Donuto scale (instead of covering, say, the deleterious effects of gasoline consumption by SUV's on the environment, or the tobacco industry's clever solicitation of candidates for DEATH).
We recently had heard in the office over one of the Yellow Machine that's made by Anthology Solutions.
Asteroid? Not worried. Vaguely worried. Sorta worried. Kinda worried. Somewhat worried. Fairly worried. Worried. FEAR FEAR FEAR
The Torino scale is trying to represent two completely orthogonal scalars (chance of collision and consequences of collision) with a single scalar. It's going to end up misrepresenting something.
Don't believe them!! They're trying to... hey, get out of my room!, AARRRRGHHGHH.....
[NO CARRIER]
Do we have to have 10,000 I can scramble the letters postings?
Move on people, nothing to see here
DROS - Open-Source Robot Software
What will it take before we get more money for watching the skies and funding for technologies that can divert a disaster? I think inciting panic or fear without exagerating the risks or facts can have a positive social change.
Right now, most of the sky is ignored and there is no solution to moving a huge asteroid just a little bit to avoid collision with the Earth or the moon. If Joe Sixpack demanded some kind of plan eventually something would be debated in Congress. The alternative is to watch a small part of the sky and do nothing if a real threat is detected.
What gets me is that people actually panic even when they put the statistics right there in the page, 1 in a million chance. There is greater chance that we would nuke ourselves out of existance. Or yet maybe I could win the lottery, think ill go buy a ticket.
Serenity|Chaos
Please stop paying attention to us! We don't need funding or publicity! Give our money to the effort to stamp out terrorist bad breath!
This sounds suspisciously like an Onion article in the making...
"Your superior intellect is no match for our puny weapons!"
Well, it would be funny if I had someway to get to another earth-like planet ...
Of course, with essentially no space program, there's nothing we could do even if we DID believe them, so maybe they're worrying over nothing.
See what I've been reading.
It's not only the astronomers who are worried about one of these things coming, it's Bruce Willis who is worried, too.
He's afraid he's going to have to wear that hideous cordoroy space-suit again and listen to Ben Affleck mope about J.Lo.
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
Space.com had a nice piece about this too.
karma capped
Oh wait, they are all dead, I forgot.
Where is my green/blue/yellow/orange/red?
Perhaps we should always be in an elevated state for possible impact too!
I understand that the scientists should be concerned that their data not be misrepresented, but the blame for any panic that ensues following one of these press releases lies on the media that reports it, not the scientists.
As long as the information the Astonomers release is accurate and fully explains the likelyhood of an impact, I think they're covered. There is enough of a peer review process involved that keeps inaccurate information from being disseminated. And the scale they use to rate the impact probability seems quite satisfactory to me. (granted, I'm no astronomer)
Maybe I'm assuming too much, but media hype doesn't usually make it past my BS filter. Until I hear a report from a multiple reliable media sources, I'm unlikely to believe in wild claims of global destruction. But that's just me.
Traxman
Brian Marsden of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, worries that the public will stop taking the asteroid threat seriously if false alarms continue.
Seriously though, did they ever? When was the last time you saw someone look at a headline about a potential asteroid collision, and witnessed a reaction other than a chuckle, or a sarcastic remark about life insurance?
The public knows there's virtually no chance of such an event actually happening, though I'm sure this is due more to an unconscious perception of invulnerability than to any widespread accurate education on the subject. Furthermore, they know that it would be utterly beyond their control regardless. If an asteroid of sufficient size impacts the earth, no shelter or duck-and-cover is going to help, so why worry? I can't imagine that too many people twist themselves into a panic over asteroid collision headlines. They're more of an amusement than anything else -- and it's not as if the astronomers responsible for keeping vigilence over such matters are in danger of losing funding.
The coolest voice ever.
Brian Marsden of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, worries that the public will stop taking the asteroid threat seriously if false alarms continue. He says altering the scale is not enough: "It's time we got rid of it."
Good. The public can't do shit about approaching death from the heavens anyway; except for possibly burning and looting everything for some false alarm. What we really need here is a huge, "laser" to blast em outta the sky; that is, if our crack team of off-shore oil-riggers miners can't nuke it first.
Would you mind clarifying how that works?
Any sufficiently simple magic can be passed off as mere advanced technology.
What makes me concerned is that the scientists are realizing that the press is wrapping it all up in sensationalism now. (i.e. "Scientists say this is the 'Big One'", etc.) What if they do find something of a concern and begin to second guess themselves about whether to say something.
Granted that the probability of getting hit by a large asteroid is more or less remote, but I'd like to know which of these things are under a closer "watch".
!@#$% whole-grain cereal. When I want fiber, I eat some wicker furniture. - G. Carlin
than the people who declare we're all going to die after only a nights worth of orbit data (And yes I am an astronomer dammit!). There are too many people trying to do sloppy science by deriving an orbit after only a night's worth of data and then send out a press release (*cough* University of Pisa *cough*)
It makes us look bad that they declare we're all going to die and then later late week after they've gotten more data and re-crunch the numbers have to come back and say "Ohh, yeah, please ignore what we just said"
This really isn't anything new. The amount of sensationalism that is poured through journalism now is gotten silly. It has really become a form of entertainment, rather than a reliable source of information. Its really too bad that you have to take the news with a grain of salt generally, since everything is jumping to conclusions, rather than giving you the facts and leaving out the opinions.
E.
Never rub another man's rhubarb - The Joker
I noticed if you read the fine print on the scale, it states "In case of a 10, please reinstate all previously rebuked views of religion, in case they're right... " sounds suspiciously like a sell-out... I knew those pesky scientists have been leading me on all along...
After years of study, me and my team of crack monk... I mean scientists have reached the conclusions Me+Pie=Mmmm, or, given infinate time, the earth has a strong statistical probability that it will eventually be devoured by a giant lesbian space ninja.
Banaaaana!
I for one welcome our new asteroid overlords.
Perhaps they could use a color-coded scale from red to green.
Multiply probability of impact by consequences of collision and you get a meaningful weighed probability of disaster.
Low probability * Low damage = Low danger
High probability * Low damage = Medium Danger
Low probability * High damage = Medium Danger
High probability * High damage = High Danger
Seems reasonable to me
Instead of quantifying the damage an asteroid will cause on impact it would be better to rate how difficult an asteroid would be to deflect into a safe orbit.
What will it take before we get more money for watching the skies and funding for technologies that can divert a disaster?
Watching the skies for asteroids is comparatively inexpensive. The distances that telescopes are required to resolve in order to detect a threatening asteroid within sufficient lead time are far shorter than those routinely resolved by Hubble or Chandra, and lower-power telescopes = lower cost. It's the research into asteroid diversion techniques that really must be beefed up. I can almost understand the bureaucracy's reluctant attitude toward funding such projects -- why, they reason, should they pump money into research for circumstances that in all likelihood will never occur?
Nevertheless, the price for such an event, one asteroid at the expense of the human race, is far too high. This presents its own kind of pragmatism, which mustn't be ignored by those with the power to decide.
The coolest voice ever.
I don't care if they think an astroid is going to hit us I want to know where an astroid that is going to hit us will impact. That way, I can run up my credit cards and travel to that spot, set up a lawn chair and enjoy the show (an laugh at those on the other side of the world who will eventually starve or freeze in the ensueing nuclear winter).
Michael Moore seems to have hit it on the head about the U.S. news organizations jumping from remote possibility to remote possibility getting everybody as scared shitless as they can. film at 11.
well, it's nothing one behind the ear wouldn't cure
Obviously, the people that panic because of a one-in-a-million chance of an asteroid hitting the earth are the same ones that buy lottery tickets because of a one-in-sixty-million chance of winning the lottery. Apparently a large segment of the population suffers from a Rainman-like inability to comprehend either large numbers or statistics. Perhaps we SHOULD be careful what we tell these people. It's like when I was babysitting the 7-year old next store, and causually mentioned that because rivers meander, some day the river slough a half mile from his house would be where his house his. He started screaming and crying -- he couldn't comprehend the fact that "some day" would be long after he was dead and his house had been torn down anyway.
"Freedom means freedom for everybody" -- Dick Cheney
Keeping an potential asteroid hit a secret may be better for everyone, but it's not better for me.
M@
Krispy Cream is people
Some even want the way asteroids are assessed to be completely overhauled."
What needs to be overhauled is how the astronomers interact with the press. Perhaps they should simply not hold press conferences on "maybes". Especially when certainty will be available within a few days anyway.
The problem isn't the system, the problem is the people. Glory hungry amateurs and stupid journalists, feeding off of each other.
To hell with 'em all.
10. Fox News: "TERROR FROM ABOVE!"
9. CNN: "We now go to our Washington bureau for the latest on the Bush administration's responsibility for this catastrophy.
8. PBS: "If you send us $100, you'll get this nice Yanni videotape."
7. MSNBC: "In Scarborough country, asteroids are held accountable"
6. C-Span: "Tonight on Book Chat, the author of the "Meteor" tie-in novel weighs in."
5. CBS News with Dan Rather: "This meteor will sweep through the South like a tornado through a trailer park"
4. The View: "What do you think we should wear for this?"
3. Good Morning America: "Is your pet psychic? These and more stories after the asteroid report."
2. MTV News: "With this new asteroid in the sky, Meat Loaf has a few words to say about the fact that he is no longer the biggest `Rock Star' around"
1. James Carville on Crossfire: "Ken Starr is bringing this upon us! This asteroid will kill minorities and poor children!"
0. Springfield News: "This is Kent Brockman. I for one, welcome our...."
the fact they immediatley start yelling "we're all going to die!" and then report the probability as being astronomically low. If an asterod pops up with a 1 in 2 chance of hitting us, then panic. But when you have a greater liklihood of being kicked in the ass by a midget than you do of getting hit, don't tell us.
There's a growing sense that even if The Future comes,
most of us won't be able to afford it.
-- Lemmy
tracking an asteroid is like looking at the graph of a function. it looks like a line, and it looks like it's heading right for us (ahh!), but in realiy, after some more data comes in, the trajectory is curved and the asteroid is going somewhere else.
solution? wait a while before reporting the damn things.
It's depressing to think that we continue to keep all of mankind's eggs in one basket when we don't have to. Zubrin says $20 billion and 10 years to get to Mars and $2B a launch after that -- that's 70+ Mars missions just for what we're spending for W's war in Iraq, which I suspect would do a lot towards addressing the idea of permanent colonization.
Get some puny dictator who poses no threat to the US or do something so great that it'd be remembered forever so long as humans draw breath...
Every year during my review, I just pray the words "slashdot.org" aren't mentioned.
Convincing the blond next door that an asteroid is about to hit the earth may be the only chance most slashdotters have of getting laid...
"Freedom means freedom for everybody" -- Dick Cheney
I say we let the press make the articles MORE sensational. Quite frankly, if some Enquirer or World Weekly News reader is incapable of grasping the odds when they are posted right in the article, let them riot. Perhaps a few of them will die in the ensuing chaos and keep Darwin happy. Our gene pool is becoming clogged at the filter.
"Curiosity killed the cat, but for a while I was a suspect."- Steven Wright
The gotcha is without mainstream media coverage and public opinion there is no way they are going to get additional funding. I think that the occasional bit of overwrought journalism is the cross they are just going to have to bare if they want to stay in business. Personally, given the trillions spent worldwide on "defense", I'm quite happy for a few billion to go on the effort to detect an killer asteroid in time to do something about it.
UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
All we have to do is put a little white triangle in space that we can control on the ground using a conputer. We can then just spin it around and around and fire little white dots of light to blast the asteroids into smaller and smaller pieces...
From excellent karma to terible karma with a single +5 funny post...
CowboyNeal Blows (up the earth)
1. We could send Bruce Willis up to blow the thing up with an A bomb
.... Or don't you trust the summer blockbusters of 1998 to save us from disaster???
2. We could send the 2 years in secret preperations building a new civilization underground that can live for 1000 years, then pick the people who get to live at random
The media craziness would be solved if people just applied a simple rule: Don't assign a Torino rating to an object until you have observations covering 1% of the time between now and the first potential collision.
All these level 1 rated objects have been reclassified as level 0 as soon as a couple weeks of data have been obtained; why not wait those couple weeks before publising anything?
Tarsnap: Online backups for the truly paranoid
Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Hey if they want a less drastic scale, they could use the Gran Torino scale. a "1" on the Gran Torino scale is the equivalent of a souped up Gran Torino, loaded with TNT, exploded in front of Vinnie's Restaurant on account of he whacked Vittorio "Two-Fingers".
Astronomers are clearly a non-political bunch. Else they might turn all the FUD into FUnDing.
but seriously, I think part of the problem is that scientists want to be the first to publish something about important things they have found, so we end up with people racing to the press to say they found something before other people found it.
Maybe what they need is some sort of identifier showing how much data has been collected to tell people how certain the track is. Right now, they just say, ooh, 1 in a million chance based on small dataset with huge error bars. But in reality it should be 1 in 5 billion because our error bars are huge. I really think this is the scientists fault for publishing really early data that has not been corroborated yet or refined--not the press... its not like they are hacking into the scientists computers and misinterpreting data, its the scientist trying to impress a good looking journalist or something or get some recognition...
--if only coffee and techno came in the same drink...
Keep notifing us. Please loudly exclaim when we have a 1 in a million chance of being hit. Perferably like "it is 80 times more likly that you will be hit by this astroid then winning the lottery".
Now, once the public starts demanding proper funding for watching out for these things, and determining what to do, then they can quite down.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Sorry for the misunderstanding
Your misunderstanding of basic terminology? You should be.
>> orthogonal scalars
>
> Would you mind clarifying how that works?
When mathematics hits language... no good outcome. I suppose the original poster meant that the Torino-scale combines two completely unrelated scales with each other.
The probability of an impact has nothing to with its potential (desastrous) effects.
Two orthogonal vectors are linear independent from each other, that is, one isn't a multiple of the other.
If you'd measure impact-probabilty on the x-axis, and the effects on the y-axis, any combination of these two can be described by a vector in this 2d-plain. however, if you only name the length of the vector, thus give only a single value where otherwise two would be needed (i.e. x,y coordinates or length and polar angle), your scale looses much of its meaning.
The human brain is immensely bad at assessing risks and consequences. Just look at the relative frequencies of fear-of-flying vs. fear-of-riding-in-a-car and compare those frequencies with the objective safety data for the two modes of transport. Add in fear of the unknown vs. complacency with the commonplace and all logic of probability and expected value go out the window. Since most people have never experienced an asteroid strike and since most asteroids never strike the Earth, it is easy to discount the possibility of the event.
And even statistics is inadequate for assessing the threat. On a deeper level, no single asteroid threat scale can work if different people have different levels of risk aversion. Which would you prefer: 1) an event that has a 1-in-a-million chance of killing 1 billion people or 2) an event that has a 100% chance of killing 1000 people. Different people will argue for different preferences despite the fact that both events have the same expected value of 1000 people dead. Some, who are risk averse, would abhor even the remotest possibility that a billion people might perish. Others, who are risk seeking, would rather take a 99.9999% chance of nobody dying to avoid the option in which 1000 people are most certainly killed.
Overall, I can see why the scientists want to downplay all the preliminary sightings of asteroids. With too little tracking data, nearly every rock they find looks like it might hit the Earth sometime. The real question is: how many false alarms can the public tolerate? If it is 1 false alarm per month, then scientists should only publish a threat assessment once a month.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
It's JIBBERISH. I'm not a physicist, but I play one on Slashdot!
... be VERY afraid.
Perhaps O'Reilly's "No-Spin Zone" could be useful for changing the trajectory of this whirling hunk of rock.
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
After the second civil war, we'll be much more worried about the next world war, which will make a mere asteroid crashing into the earth look like a tiny drop in the bucket.
pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate.
. . . by the awful news about Jo Lo and Ben Affleck.
Or was it Johnny Cash and John Ritter?
Nothing to feel bad about. Most people didn't read about the discovery of those bipedal sapient weasels in Burma because of all the ruckus over Bob Hope dying.
Stefan
But the lotto is worse odds than that and millions play that :)
We do need to take any threat seriously though, it will drastically affect life on earth.
Ha! That was easy! Surprisingly you use the exact same password as I do! What are the odds?! Needless to say I changed it.
Any technology distinguishable from magic, is insufficiently advanced.
By God! That meteor masses ten million old Ford Automobiles!
too obscure for ya, mebbe?
Hey, it's half past two in the night here. I've drunken a beer or two this evening and what's more important, this isn't my native tongue. I'm not exactly using english mathematical terms every day, you know. Now shut up.
Oh my god, there's a black hole in the center of our galaxy that could ANNIHILATE ALL MATTER! Is that High Danger? Maybe in a few billion years, but it's really not a big deal right now.
Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Who gives a damn if the probability is 1:100,000,000 -- the more scares the more likely stupid bumpkins will fund space travel.
What we really need is a good 1:1 for people to think about. That will get us into space in a hurry.
Big Brother Bush is doubleplus ungood.
exactly, the probability is close to zero, so the product of probability and danger is close to zero... the above table didn't attempt to list all possible values
The role of the media has long since been entertainment and titillation, rather than information. If it's bad, frightening, panic-indusing, worrying, or rabble-rousing, they'll print it.
What you describe would be reasonable (though I would argue that it loses too much data to really be useful). But that's not how the Torino scale works. As for how it does work, I couldn't tell you... I was unable to discern the pattern of how the two values (no more math terms for me) were combined.
Astonomers should embrace the public's irrational fear and push Congress for more funding on the locations of earth intersecting asteroids.
It worked for the PATRIOT act, why not astronomy?
WE'RE ALL GUNNA DIE!!!1!
---
ps -aux | grep mind
Just claim its a terrorist threat, seems to work for every other thing anyone wants funding for in the US at the moment
An infinite number of monkeys will eventually come up with the complete works of
I know this is a little off topic, but...
I was thinking about the various reports I've heard about deflecting an asteroid or shooting it with a missle. One idea I just thought of would be to somehow increase the speed of the asteroid so that it would miss earth. Maybe by using a solar sail or attaching rockets to it that would increase it's speed. If you had enough warning ahead of time then maybe you wouldn't actually have to have much acceleration as long as it was continuous (such as the solar sail idea).
Do you think that would be possible? Would it work any better than blowing it up or deflection?
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score
I've been following the Current Impact Risks page ever since I found out about it over a year ago.
In order to report on this issue responsibly, all that's required is to ignore any object on the list until the NEO survey folks has collected observations over a span of 20 days or more. Before that, the orbits are too unclear to be worth reporting upon. Practically all objects fall of the list before the obeservations span 20 days.
Sadly, some reporters want to get the story out first, so they jump the gun.
With reasonable men I will reason; with humane men I will plead; but to tyrants I will give no quarter. -- William Lloyd
I will sell, to the highest bidder, a lottery ticket in the year 2014 which will guarantee you a 1 in a million chance of winning a multi-million dollar jackpot.
Boy, the media should pick up on this story and cause some hysteria.
Want to improve your Karma? Instead of "Post Anonymously", try the "Post Humously" option.
However:
.9999999999 chance that we were looking up our own assholes while collecting the data, which was statistically insignificant anyway and our methodology was blatently bogus and ignored most of the obvious confounders and such.
"Scientists" cannot entirely escape blame either. For decades they have existed in an unofficial unholy union with the press.
"Warning! Recent study says if you've ever heard the word "FAT" you're going to die! 1000 times more likely to die TOMORROW!"
Appendix Z of study:
Technically our findings are true. We're all going to die. There's also a 1 in
Oh yeah, and "1000 times more likely" means you're still more likely to win every state lottery on the same day. Nothing to get all worked up over really, but if we said that right up front in the abstract we'd never make the front page of the NYT (free registration required). Plus, we're good people and really need the grant to feed our children. You like children, don't you?
THINK OF THE CHILDREN!
P.S. We put all this back here in Appendix Z because we knew the press's eyes would be pretty well glazed over before they got anywhere near this far into the thing, but we can still honestly say it was here.
No, we will not write a letter to the editor politely pointing out that they effectively misreported our results. You think we're idiots or something?
We have Doctorates! (Ummmm, it says to continue press any key. Where the HELL is the any key? No, I will NOT "RTFM." You think I got a doctorate so I'd have to read an F'in manual?)
Appendix Z^1:
Ha, ha! Just serious.
***********************
Don't even get me going on the unholy trinity of "scientists," the press and the government.
There are those who have accused me, based on previous posts, of being anti-science with a poor and disrespectful view of scientist.
Well, I am a physicist by training and hold science in the deepest respect. Would that more scientists even knew how, then I could shed myself of whatever contempt by virtue of familiarity I have picked up over the years.
To be fair to the astronomers it doesn't surprise me that they're shocked and stunned by all of this. They're the least likely group to have engaged in the above type of behaviour, spending more time looking at data and less time talking to the press than just about any other branch of science ( including the physicists).
Welcome to the real world guys. Now you've got a better idea of the crap Carl had to put up with.
KFG
Very good point... helllloooo nurse! Er, I mean... funding!
Want to improve your Karma? Instead of "Post Anonymously", try the "Post Humously" option.
Astronomer: We'll set it permanently to code orange and everyone will ignore it.
A professor told me that he once mentioned to his class that something or other didn't matter in the long run, because in a few billion years the sun was going to go nova and devour the Earth.
A girl in the front row began sobbing hysterically.
"What's wrong?" asked the professor. "It's in like four billion years!"
The girl stopped crying, relieved, and brightened. "Oh! I thought you said four *million* years!"
All employees must wash hands before seeking equitable relief.
Asteroids are panicing?! We should panic!
Ugh... some of these asteroids are the size of hefty animals, small buildings, or even American cars.
If one is headed our way, I'm hoping for a direct hit. I sure wouldn't want to pass a stone that large...
I for one, welcome our asteroid-inhabiting overlords.
Astronomers are horrified that reporters are fomenting panick over a one in a million shot of earth's annihilation?
What the hell am I playing lotto for with odds of about 26 million to 1 for then?
the ones we see. So far every one that we see has been studied for a couple more days and the threat has been eliminated. Even if they found that it was absolutely going to hit the the planet, there's 10 years for them to come up with a way to send up some nukes and blast it out of the sky.
The REAL problem is the ones we DON'T see coming. It's all well and good to say "yes, we're watching, and we're making sure that nothing will hit the planet", but we can't possibly watch every corner of the sky all the time. And it will be one helluva shock to the powers that be when someone comes along and says "This asteroid is bearing down upon is, we weren't watching and we now have three weeks to come up with a plan".
People don't seem to realize that there has been no escalation in the chances of earth being struck by a signficantly sized asteroid now than there was in the thousands of years we have gone without being hit. There was the Tunguska explosion, in which an asteroid struck in an unpopulated area (which I'm estimating describes over 87% of the earth, taking into account the ~70% covered in water), but other than that what else?
If an asteroid was large enough sure, it wouldn't matter where it hit, the effects would be globally catastrophic. But when was the last time an asteroid like that hit, much less a smaller one like that involved in the Tunguska explosion? A pretty long time ago I'm sure. And I see no reason why, suddenly now we have to prepare for asteroid collisions, when we are no more likely to be hit than we were 50, 100 or 1000 years ago.
Anti-asteroid measures should be kept on the backburner if at all, not only to prevent hysteria but because there are much better ways to use the scientific and monetary resources.
So...what do they do? Instead of waiting the two days and seeing if the risk is real, they announce right away.
Let's consider the possibilities if they had waited a couple of days. In the overwhelmingly most likely case, they find after a couple days that things are OK, and so say nothing. No panic. All is well.
In the extremely unlikely case, it turns out it does have a reasonable chance of hitting the Earth, perhaps high enough that we actually need to do something about it. In that case, would a delay of TWO DAYS OUT OF 11 YEARS really have made a difference?
Either someone was very irresponsible in announcing in the first place, or someone was trying to get publicity for astronomers (perhaps to help with funding?)
You know you love scaring us!
"If you are a dreamer, a wisher, a liar, A hope-er, a pray-er, a magic bean buyer
The damage is very hard to determine without knowing precisely where an object will hit. Since even a small object could cause massive casualties and destruction if it were to hit a city the primary factor has to be the chance of collision. This is how the Torino scale works.
it occurs to me that "sorry for the misunderstanding" would make an excellent sig!
-pyrrho
It should be noted that jpl lists two Torino scale "1" objects at the moment. Neither have possible impacts any time soon... Should practical imortality become available soon, I'll pay more attention.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk
-- Stephen.
It's not too hard: the scale treats chance of collision as more significant than consequences of collision. Bascially 2-4 represent very low chance of collision, 5-7 represent significant chance of collision, and 8-10 represent certain collision. Within those ranges the lowest number is the is for events with less significant consequences and the highest number is for more significant consequences.
please forgive him, he'd never heard of other languages before... He learns something new everyday!
He thought you meant 2d-bland and that you were worried that the scale was about to set loose it's meaning... you can understand the confusion.
Oh, Anonymous Coward
-pyrrho
Astronomers Upset About Asteroid. Panic!
Asteroid scares (along with virii and genetic engineering) are an important part of contemporary mythology, just like radiation in the fifties. Until there are proper anti-asteroid mechanisms in place we need to exaggerate and fret over these percieved threats. It dulls our eyes to the pain of everyday problems and frustrating hierarchic structures. Give the people dreams of threats from space lest they get restless and rise anew.
Heh. I can almost imagine the National Enquirer front page. "Osama bin Laden alive and well - living with Saddam Hussein on asteroid!" The picture, of course, would be the duo sitting astride the asteroid waving scimitars in the air in the style Slim Pickens in "Dr. Strangelove" as the bomb drops from the B52.
UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
I don't think it misrepresents anything. Each value is associated with both a specific kinetic energy and a specific probability. The Torino value not just the result of multiplying the two numbers (which would introduce the orthogonal vectors issue you mentioned) but rather a unique area on the plane defined by those two 'vectors'.
~Idarubicin
I don't actually know how the Torino scale works. I just objected that two orthogonal values could be combined to give a meaningful value.
A day after CNN issued the announcement that the end of the world was coming in 2014, it posted this headline (which, in my opinion, isn't too comforting either).
As if that weren't enough, the article suggests that the blame should be placed on the Near Earth Objects Information Center for releasing the report in the first place!
So let me get CNN's plan straight here:
1) Ignore the facts and post inflamatory headlines that are meant to instil fear.
2) If you are proven wrong, blame the source from which you ignored the facts.
3) Profit ? (sorry)
Ever notice how the media has an armageddon du jour? First it was a nuclear winter, followed by a mass starvation caused by overpopulation, then the air becoming too polluted to breathe, then a world-wide drought, then the ozone hole, and then global warming. The liberal media has desperately tried to tell us that America's policies would spell the End of Civilization As We Know It. However, as it became obvious to everybody that those events failed to take place or were much less worse than feared. (Remember all those best-sellers in the 70s saying that by 1990 we'd all be dead of a "population bomb" or back in the stone age or something like that?)
However, sensationalism sells. Once it became clear that we aren't going to bring our own doom upon the planet, the media had to fabricate another way to off us. Enter the asteroid. Fueled mainly a pair of "deep-hurting" level films and a populace who hates to remember the difference between fantasy and reality, we were suddenly bombasted by a flurry of magazine articles and Discovery Channel specials gleefully showing us exactly what would happen if a large meteor or comet would hit earth. "Look!" the repressors of intellect say, "A comet killed off the dinosaurs, it's our turn!" Combine this with a generally jittery attitude (Y2K, terrorism, etc) with some mangled probabilities of impacts of various sizes and some spiffy CGI, and we have a fine example of Junk Science.
So how do we stop this? Easy. We need a new armageddon. Fortunately, an ideal solution already exists: the Yellowstone Supervolcano. Apparently most of Yellowstone National Park is on top of a HUGE dormant volcano crater, and the floor of this crater is rising at an unprecedented rate! (By the way, don't you hate the current overuse of the word "unprecedented"? Unprecedented California Recall, Unprecedented Budget Cuts, Unprecedented SCO FUD, ad nauseum. A quick Google search already turns up some pretty impressive headlines, such as "YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO GETTING READY TO BLOW ITS CORK", or "Scientists warn of supervolcano that could blot out the sun". Now this, my fellow readers, is material. Within 5 years, the entire state of Wyoming will be evacutated (that is, if the volcano hasn't blown its top by then)! All you writers out there, this is your chance! Write 300 pages of drivel about the Krakatoa Explosion, some exaggerated reports of Yellowstone's geologic activity, and "11 simple tips to help YOU stay safe". Extra points for suggesting that this is partially caused by humans destroying the environment by snowmobiling, thus causing "seismic infrasonic vibrations" or stupid tourists throwing coins into geysers, "preventing a natural, steady release of geothermal energy".
In conclusion, Killer Asteroid slamming into a large city well-known for unique architectural tourist attractions = yesterday's news. Volcano turning the Midwest into a pile of liquid hot magma = new and improved.
"Chance of rain" in a weather forecast actually means "probability that you personally will get rained on," not "probability that it will rain somewhere in the area in question." Watch a time-lapse radar animation -- if those blobs travel across x% of the area, that's considered an x% chance of rain, even though the actual probability that rain will occur is 100%. (And of course weather patterns are vastly more complicated than simple celestial mechanics.)
The Torino scale is trying to represent two completely orthogonal scalars
Whuzzat?? I was asleep.
Look, if you're gonna mention me, at least add yourself as a fan, ok?
Opinions on the Twiddler2 hand-held keyboard?
Beleloved ABCNews anchor Peter Jennings reports from Bagdad:
"And from the world of science, professors from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts tell us there is no need to worry about impacts from Earthbound asteroids"
Wooooosh.
"WTF? Run! Arrrrrrggggh!!!!"
Shot of fire from sky, ending transmission.
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain with all your metadata.
he couldn't comprehend the fact that "some day" would be long after he was dead and his house had been torn down anyway.
I'm not sure that "don't worry, you'll be dead anyway" is the best method to placate a screaming child.
The BSD syslog Protocol already has a scale that can be adapated with a little tweaking. And then we can have notification relayed to a plethora of Syslog consoles that can take appropriate action (backup, shutdown, pager, send T101 back in time to stop it, etc). So we have:
which with a little tweaking becomesThe only downside I see is that it is the BSD syslog protocol, and I understand that BSD is dead...
Recycle PCs and build a wireless community network www.hillsborough.org.nz
Obviously their measurements are uncertain, and yet in the reporting we at best hear only vague suggestions that the present approximation may not be entirely accurate.
To take into account uncertainty in measurement, 50%, for example, must be appended with, for example, a +-20% margin of error, unless they are already reporting the maximum possible chance of impact, but that doesn't seem to be the case.
Assuming that this uncertainty is made more explicit -- given more specifically -- in the actual scientific agency (or what not) releases, this is absolutely a case of sensationalist journalism.
.sig Realistic fines for copyright in
Oops! Shouldn't have posted this... now the National Inquirer will have fodder to run with this overly-used story for another 10 years. ;)
That's the problem with the National Inquirer: they keep rehasing old news.
For timely and insightful coverage of the day's most pressing issues, you need to read the World Weekly News. Click here for an example of current events.
I went to newscientist's site, and I can't
seem to find a link to this article.
Could someone tell me how this appears
on slashdot, but not on their own site.
http://www.newscientist.com/news/
Barring any glitches, it should be churning out production data in three years. The observation program will then proceed over three to five years, depending on funding. Given the short cycle time between individual observations, PanSTARRS should usually be able to accurately calculate an object's orbit by the time a science editor gets wind of it. It beats a sharp stick in the eye.
Other projects intended to detect objects down to several hundred meters are still in the planning stage.
Luke, help me take this mask off
So we are or arn't goin to be hit? LOL
Since most of the damage will be caused by idiots running/driving scared the biggest danger is the hype.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Good to have a new one, but it really needs your mate to come crashing through the pub door yelling "Hey everyone, there's a big-ass asteroid gonna kill us all in 20 minutes time".
Engineering is the art of compromise.
To me, anyway, it used to seem that astronomers have really had to hype their research to attract attention. I mean, how many "Gee, it could be FRICKIN BLACK HOLE" articles can Scientific American write every couple of years that contain *NEW* information.??? Uh-huh. Zzzzzz.....
The instruments have only gotten more expensive, too. I noticed a surge in news articles as the last solar cycle was picking up, and since then I think there's been a constant attention from the media. And now astronomers can't deal with the consequences?
Congratulations on joining the hot crowd. Now your field is like any other where the buzz of the day is swooped down on and exaggerated by hawkish reporters trying to feed their own egos.
Jus' chill, 'k?
On a world-wide scale, the deaths of thousands of people would be considered inconsequential. So according to that scale, an asteroid that will definitely (as in 100% probability) destroy one full city would only be Medium Danger (High probability * Low damage). Now if I was in that city, I would be a little pissed about this not being big news, and the lack of warning (well, pissed for the short time I had left to live, at least).
Astronomers upset about journalists reporting that astronomers are upset about asteroid panic.
and I, for one, will welcome our new carbon and silicate overlords! You guys rock!
Gerhard Lizius, Letter in the Alarm, Feb. 21, 1885
Lizius, an anarchist, wrote this letter to one of Chicago's anarchist newspapers. It was one of a number of expressions of enthusiasm for dynamite that appeared in the anarchist press in the mid 1880s.
Dynamite! of all the good stuff, this is the stuff. Stuff several pounds of this sublime stuff into an inch pipe, gas or water pipe, plug up both ends, insert a cap with fuse attached, place this in the immediate neighborhood of a lot of rich loafers, who live by the sweat of other people's brows, and light the fuse. A most cheerful and gratifying result will follow. In giving dynamite to the downtrodden millions of the globe, science has done its best work. The dear stuff can be carried around in the pocket without danger, while it is a formidable weapon against any force of militia, police or detectives that may want to stifle the cry for justice that goes forth from the plundered slaves. It is something not very ornamental, but exceedingly useful. It can be used against persons and things; it is better to use it against the former than against bricks and masonry. It is a genuine boon for the disinherited, while it brings terror and fear to the robbers. It brings terror only to the guilty, and consequently the Senator who introduced a bill in congress to stop its manufacture and use, must be guilty of something. He fears the wrath of an outraged people that has been duped and swindled by him and his like. The same must be the case with the "servant" of the people who introduced a like measure in the senate of the Indiana Legislature. All the good this will do. Like everything else, the more you prohibit it, the more will it be done... A pound of this good stuff bears a bushel of ballots all hollow, and don't you forget it. Our law makers might as well try to sit down on the crater of a volcano or a bayonet as to endeavor to stop the manufacture and use of dynamite. It takes more justice and right than is contained in laws to quiet the spirit of unrest. If workingmen would be truly free, they must learn to know why they are slaves. They must rise above petty prejudice and learn to think. From thought to action is not far, and when the worker has seen the chains, he need but look a little closer to find near at hand the sledge with which to shatter every link. The sledge is dynamite. . .
How about calling it the Edsel scale?
This seems pretty ironic in light of:
Show me on the doll where his noodly appendage touched you.
"...astronomers are horrified by press scares over asteroids
You know, the smartest people are the biggest freakin' idiots sometimes. This is opportunity knocking for one of the least recognized, most inadequately funded areas of astronomy in which the consequences of neglect could prove catastrophic, and these astronomers are horrified that they are recieving so much damn attention, negative or otherwise??? What did I just miss here???
Cripes, this is exactly what you want for this anemic area of research. Tell em: "People, I'm sorry to break it to you, but a giant meteor impacting this planet would blow us all to hell and it just so happens this one is passing close. It could happen again with less desirable results next time. Now about that funding..." Don't shune the spotlight you asses, USE IT.
If it isn't whining about the lack of attention, it's whining about too much attention. Sheesh... no wonder these projects aren't getting anywhere.
You need a FREE iPod Nano
a paraquote:
"there will be devastating destruction, everything you know will be crushed or burned or blasted into dust, nothing will be able to exist...............(long pause with lots of cool graphics) in a million years"
...another Tunguska event, this time over a populated area, before anybody gets off their ass and wakes up to the potential for destruction.
I, for one, can't wait! Well, as long as it isn't my city that gets it...
Don't just stand there, get that other dog!
Actually sensational journalists are right. Look, do you think that a train derailing and killing a hundred people should be reported? OK, I thought so. Asteroid marked 1 on Torino scale has a 1 in a million chance to collide with Earth and to destroy a continent, killing 2 billion people in the process. The expected value of damage to the humankind is thus a couple billion dollars and 2 thousand people. Do you still think this should not be reported? Do you still think this is not dangerous and scary?
Future Wiki -- If you don't think about the future, you cannot have one.
Luckily, it is very difficult to stop private citizens of the Earth from looking up. That's one source, and it is the one, (with some modifiers), we ought to be listening to.
The other wants us to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. (Partly to keep the slave-driven pyramid scheme which is the industrialized world from breaking the feeding cycle, but largely because they would prefer not to think too much about these kinds of impossible to solve problems themselves.)
To paraphrase one rather lyrical source. .
Here's to star-gazing and to hoping that the Shadow Government's mountain retreat gets it full on the chin! (Built for nukes, my ass! When the Shadow Government runs the entire world show, why the hell would it build bomb shelters? It's not going to nuke itself!)
-FL
If the public gets stirred up over a asteroid that may hit the planet 50+ years from now, won't that somehow help NASA? I can see millions of people all afraid of a comet, so politicians realize they'll be elected if they promise $$$$ to help stop the comet, and so NASA gets the trillions of dollars they've always wanted. Maybe it's just me, but panick over asteroids sounds like a good thing...
my karma will be here long after I'm gone
I am always amazed that these predictions were made some 2000 years ago, before we had the foggiest notions about astronomy, astrophysics, or even the fact that the earth was spherical!!
The physical sequence of events: impact of a large meteorite into the sea and more prolonged, secondary impacts of smaller objects surrounding its core, the subsequent shockwaves, earthquake, blanketing of the sky by dust and debris thrown up from the main impact, contamination of the water cycle, etc.
God is going to wipe us out the same way he did the dinosaurs!
It's scary to think that this comet is up there right now, orbiting silently, following the laws of celestial mechanics, until the pre-determined time..............!
In other news...
Astrologers Upset About Asteroid Panic - "Asteroids have no impact, it is all in your astral aura", claims several known astrologers.
Destroy one full city and no deaths elsewhere? That isn't an asteroid, it's a clean fusion bomb from those fiendish Jovians.
Cartoons are so insightful:
. gif
http://images.ucomics.com/comics/ga/2003/ga030916
Weeks of coding saves hours of planning.
When will the slashdot developers add a killfile???
Create a userid for yourself (if you don't have one). Go to preferences - comments. Scroll down to "People Modifier". Select "-6" for "Foe". Leave Threshold at 0 or higher.
Your foes list is now your killfile. Click the white blob against a commenter's name to add them.
It's done!
Irene KHAAAAAAN!
That action is ultimately futile since the gestation may not have time to go to term, and the offspring, if born, would not grow to reproduction age...
Stick Men
All the "no-zpin zone" means is that if someone tries to tell lies on his show, they will get called on it. There's a place for that, just like there is a place for Larry King's "softball" approach which means that just about anyone can feel comfortable coming on the King show.
"Like just recently when the US papers published all those articles about a non-existant war in Cuba and got the US into a war with Spain."
That wasn't recent, it was about 100 years ago. There was definitely a war in Cuba at the time (the term "concentration camp" was invented here for one of the methods Spain was using to exterminate Cubans). It was a period of colonial horror visited upon Cuba which was unmatched until the Soviet reigh of terror during the 1960s.
What was "non-existant" was any act of war by Spain against the United States. This is what Hearst fabricated in his newspapers.
If you still doubt there was a war in Cuba, please check into the life of Jose Marti: "Marti went back to New York where he lived from 1881 to 1895. In that year, he left to join the war for Cuban independence which he had so painstakingly organized. There he died in one of its first skirmishes." (source)
Yes, a personal (but oft misplaced) sense of control explains why people don't fear driving a car. But why is there so little fear of riding in cars. Other than riding with that weird drunk uncle, most people think nothing of getting into the passenger seat of a car. They've been doing it all their lives (complacency with the commonplace).
As to survival rate, I would grant you that cars have a greater fraction of survivable accidents, than do planes -- crashing at 35 MPH vs. from 35,000 feet wil do that. The surivability of the millions of minor car accidents probably contributes to the public's non-fear of being a car passenger(more complacency with the commonplace). Yet the real issue is that airplane accidents are extremely rare -- IIRC there were 0 fatalities on commercial airliners in 2002. Hence, the old adage that one is more likely to die on the short drive to and from the airport than on the long flight between the airports.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
I read that as "Astronomers Upset About Asteroid; Panic!"
Music speeds up when you yawn, but does not change pitch.
Channel 4 news, a fairly mainstream and usually reliable UK news program which was almost unbelievable. The reporter opened the report by saying that an asteroid of such and such a size was going to hit the earth on such and such a date and the consequences were going to be this and that. It was only half way through the report they mentioned that the probability of it hitting was virtually zero, despite earlier saying that is was going to hit us, without any qualification. I can only assume this is exactly the kind of reporting these astronomers are talking about.
How disengenuous. For years astronomers have whipped up a frenzy about the latest asteroid encounter, presumably to compete for funding with the other "natural disaster" sciences of climatology and volcanology. The amount of funding they is proportional to how much fear they can produce in the the public. slashdot.org dutifully assists by publishing these stories.
an ill wind that blows no good
Want to find out who and why the public hystaria is happening? Take a quick look at my webpage, from the top.
Think first, then if you think the page sucks, email me. If you have tips or suggestions, email me.
Visit NanoNucleus
Once we get the proposed 'asteroid hit' probability scale proposed...... then we can have notification relayed to a plethora of Syslog consoles that can take appropriate action (backup, shutdown, pager)
It's good to have a backup if the asteroid hits, you know.
- "They misunderestimated me."
I for many years have worked for the US government in an underground center that analize extra terestrial activity, I have proof in the form of documentation and photographic evidence that we are going to be attacked, in a war of the worlds, if you will, the US government has held out on destroying material that does not belong on this earth, we are developing technolgy that is beyond our worldly ability, that threaten the "enemy" as we do not have the "wisdom" that they have to use this technology safely.
If you wan't to discuss this, email me at littlewood123@hotmail.com
(Now somebody will come and tell me "You can't have skew points, and what is it skew to anyway? Don't you know the first thing about geometry?")
Any sufficiently simple magic can be passed off as mere advanced technology.
All that's changed is our assessment or understanding of that chance.
(This message has been brought to you by the Society for Probability And Chance Education. Thank you.)Ceterum censeo subscriptionem esse delendam.
Would you say that "pressure" and "volume" are orthogonal units? Sure, I would too. But if you multiply them, interestingly enough you get another meaningful unit: energy. Pressure*Volume=Energy.
The fact that they are "orthogonal" means nothing. The rule in science is that you cannot add dissimilar units. You can multiply and divide them all you want.
The nice thing about multiplying two quantities is that if either quantity doubles, the product also doubles. Therefore one of the best ways to express a combination of two "orthogonal" quantities is via multiplication. (I have no idea how the Torino scale works, but it probably isn't an extremely complex formula).
Go read some web sites about dimensional analysis and you'll start to understand why it's legitimate to combine dissimilar units in certain ways.
Yes, it's the same thing I wanted to say... my English still needs some improvement, my phrase seems to say the exact opposite
it kinda looks like the author of the article was trying to write a story were there was none.
but what a hell of an engineering challenge.
given 20 years away from college phyisics. what would it take to park qq47 on the moon? and ya, the numbers are going to be big, but what ARE the numbers?
The only downside I see is that it is the BSD syslog protocol, and I understand that BSD is dead...
God I wish an asteroid would hit this BSD troll's house. Cant we just put all the trolls on the Moon and hope the asteroid hits them first? BSD isnt dead you moron. Read about how 2 million active sites run BSD over in the BSD section.
"Now, now Wayne, you know it's no fair to go fishing in that thar barrel."
"Aw but Maw. It was justa throw-away line with a bit of a hook in it...and look at the size of it...it's as big as...as big as...as big as an ASTEROID!"
Recycle PCs and build a wireless community network www.hillsborough.org.nz
If we could just get Bruce Willis up on one of those killer asteroids and have him redirect it towards Lindon, Utah...
most of the sky is ignored and there is no solution to moving a huge asteroid just a little bit to avoid collision with the Earth or the moon.
:)
Who cares if a huge asteroid hits the moon? That would be fun to watch
Well, as long as it isn't so huge that it causes the moon to break apart. That might prove hazardous to us earthlings.
That that is is that that that that is not is not.
I think that's the point being made.
[1] or 24 of whatever the ISO unit of armageddonosity is.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
...because they're generally bull.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Ford got rid of the Torino scales years ago. Since they stopped producing them in the 70's they no longer needed to weight them so out the door they went!
Yes again a chance computed. But look Statistics aren't
exact. When you tell a good statistician what who have done,
he or she will tell you forget it.
So I don't believe in that remote chance. For knowing it you
have not to know a theory but the real structure and we don't
know that.
Look for better scientists please.
regards
Ed