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Tech Predictions for 2004
Quirk writes "The Independent has the predictions of Charles Arthur for 2004. 'The ubiquity of the iPod, the return of the Mac, and the simplicity of the portable memory stick are just some of the developments that could change our lives in 2004.'"
# Moore's Law will be deemed "obsolete". Despite this, faster computers will still be produced. We will also see x86-64 chips proliferate the market.
# Linux becomes ready for the desktop (they've predicted this every year).
# Doom 3 still won't be released.
# The total destruction of Microsoft's monopoly due to the utter, complete failure of their upcoming retarded product lines. Bill Gates' Ring Of Power tossed into the fires of Mt. Redmond and becomes molten slag. The towers of Microsoft crumble and all rejoice. (Note to Microsoft apologists : If you find this offensive, you need a sense of humour. If you're still unhappy with this, well, you suck.)
# BSD finally dies. (Note to BSD snobs : See above about Microsoft apologists)
# KDE and GNOME merge into one project. Supporters from both camps become outraged and civil war breaks out.
# Linux 2.7 will be forked, ported to run on vending machines and kitchen appliances. 2.6 becomes truly stable, and nobody will care.
# The RIAA will hand out more lawsuits, some of them for toddlers and livestock.
# Darl McBride follows the RIAA's footsteps, and starts suing toddlers and livestock too for unauthorized use of SCO intellectual property.
# Martians recover Beagle 2, reprogram it and send it back to to conquer Earth.
Which one was the iPod again?
I don't agree with everything he says, but I like this prediction:
* If you're buying a computer in the coming year, don't get one that uses Windows. It's simply too insecure. (Did you know there's a secret "administrator" account and password on every machine? You didn't? Every hacker does.) Get one with the Linux operating system installed (Evesham does them, for example) or an Apple machine running OSX. Both systems are fast, stable and secure. With Windows XP... well, sometimes two out of three really IS bad.
I cannot figure out if this prediction gets funnier or stupider each time I read it.
Anyone else got it figured out?
Actually, information would like a turkey sandwich.
Practically the entirety of business now relies on computers for just about everything, yet few, if any, can find careers working with computers?
Business isn't willing to pay for products, innovation and careers, so we get brands, mortgage commercials and layoffs.
The ubiquity of the iPod, the return of the Mac, and the simplicity of the portable memory stick are just some of the developments that could change our lives in 2004.
So, if I buy these Apple products and flash memory, my life will change and this gaping chasm which plagues my existance will be gone forever?
To hell with new years resolutions! Where's my credit card!
SEO Copywriter. Just Say ON
Picture phones will become pervasive; it'll be unusual not to have one.
Dear God, no: I think it's dumb to have one device that does two things badly rather than own two devices that do each thing moderately well.
But, then again, I'm a dreamer, eh?
Actually, information would like a turkey sandwich.
Irrelevant ramblings, false prophesies and old wife's tales. I don't trust ANY prediction unless said prediction is backed up by a) cold hard facts or b) senior, decision-making employee who can actually influence the fate of his/her own prediction. For the rest, all predictions are worthless. In fact, let's have a completely random top ten predictions from Seth for 2004!
Hate me!
After reading the no so well thought about Forbes advice, this guy has some great advice for Joe User. I've been saying this for a coule of years now, but maybe now they'll finally "get it":
* If you're buying a computer in the coming year, don't get one that uses Windows. It's simply too insecure. (Did you know there's a secret "administrator" account and password on every machine? You didn't? Every hacker does.) Get one with the Linux operating system installed (Evesham does them, for example) or an Apple machine running OSX. Both systems are fast, stable and secure. With Windows XP... well, sometimes two out of three really IS bad.
[...]
* If you're still using Windows, stop using Internet Explorer; instead try Netscape, Mozilla or Opera. IE has too many security holes for comfort.
* Ditto Outlook Express; try programs such as Eudora or Opera or Mozilla.
Or will these comments never reach the uninformed users?
Draw your own conclusions about the RIAA
There will likely continue to be an increase in crime due to several factors, such as increasing poverty because of neoliberal economic policies, and also due to importation of poverty from 3rd world, which also lowers wages.
I predict that this increasing poverty will cause a boom in home and auto security devices which are linked to personal computers in order to provide more sophisticated theft deterrents. For example, motion detectors which transmit detected motion signals to a personal computer via serial port or USB interface via either wireless transmission or signal wires.
The motion detected signals will be detected by software that will be able to be configured by an unsophisticated user to take actions that will scare off burglars. For example, play useful sound files output to speakers outside. The sound files might be randomly selected files that sound like a security officer talking to a dispatched about an intruder.
Also the computer could communicate with relays and stepper motors via via serial port or USB interface to turn on and move in a random, jerky manner an outside floodlight.
There are some products currently out now that can provide these deterrents, but they typically too expensive, unreliable, or too hard to use right now.
eat shiat and bark at the moon
* At least one other download store will join Apple in using the Dolby "AAC" encoding format, because that's the only way to reach iPod owners.
Um, hello? What? MP3 works perfectly well on iPods. Always has. Why is AAC the "only way" to reach iPod users?
Actually, information would like a turkey sandwich.
I just can't buy it. I have a perfectly nice MP3 player that's really small, and only cost me about 180 dollars, as opposed to 300 for the smallest ipod. Sure that big 40 gig ipod is cool, but I'm not paying 500 dollars for something I'll carry/drop while jogging.
For a lot of Mac products, the extra quality is worth the extra price, but I really don't see it for the ipod.
ad logicam Claiming a proposition is false because it was presented as the conclusion of a fallacious argument.
Return of the Mac? Mark Morrison is singing again?!
Noooooo!!!!
Some of the music download stores which opened in 2003, and are set to open in 2004, will "consolidate" - that is, close or merge, because it's not a great money-making market.
Quick question: what's coming out first? Longhorn or Duke Nukem Forever?
Actually, information would like a turkey sandwich.
Interesting article, but his predictions about online music stores are still not foreward thinking enough. Anyway, here are two things that I think won't happen but would be cool:
1) music download stores should offer a browsing/shopping experience that merges Internet ease with brick-and-mortar interaction; 2) brick-and-mortar stores should offer downloading/burning stations in stores.
Suggestion #1 really means offering an interface that allows online music store customers to see who else is in the "aisle" their browsing through, and chat with them, while listening to an "aisle" specific audio stream that users in that aisle can manipulate. For example:
Mindy75: hey, WebTurtle, have you heard the new Radiohead? Is it worth it?
WebTurtle: Hi. Yes, it's good. But have you heard their live album? It's even better.
Mindy75: Oh, no I haven't.
WebTurtle: Let's cue it up--I suggest the third track.
This is cool because it returns the human interaction element of going to a physical store and brings it to the online environment, while adding all the potential benefits of an online environment, such as streaming audio previews of any song on any album, and instant purchasing.
Suggestion #2 is a way for physical music stores to compete with online music stores. Many people don't want to buy music online or have the resources to download music to their computer. But why not extend the benefits of buying individual tracks in-house? These people can come to the store and use a kiosk to preview and download songs that can be burned to disc while they wait or burned to be picked up later (e.g., after shopping in some other stores in the mall). This is a great way to get a single without all the crappy extra shit that comes on the CD single; also a great way to make mix CDs.
Anyway, I've been dreaming of these two suggestions for about three years now, but I don't have the wherewithall to implement either of them. But, nobody else has done it yet, either... at least not to my knowledge. I think it's a cool idea -- especially suggestion #1.
------- "One of the joys of travel is visiting new towns and meeting new people." -- G. KHAN
This year is the year we go 64 bit! Which is actually quite a big thing (remember when we went 32 bit?)
The rivalry between AMD and Intel is getting pretty intense, and they're level right now. Who do you think will end up on top by this time next year?
It's going to be down to If I had to say, I would vouch for Intel. They have the money and tech. I do love AMDs inexpensive chips though. It will be good to see who brings the world into 64-bit and who screws up.
Who on earth posted this?? "The ubiquity of the iPod"? Where? Just because Macheads are gobbling the things up doesn't make it "ubiquitous" except within Mac circles. One can argue that cheapo MP3 players are far more "ubiquitous" than anything that Apple sells.
"The return of the Mac"? Does that mean 4.1% of market share instead of 4.05%?
Memory sticks as life changing? Sheesh - if my life was that pathetic I'd find a new life or take up raising sea monkeys.
All in all this is about the most pathetic list I've seen yet. But then I haven't looked at the other four or five that were posted last night...
Three Squirrels
BSD is undead. That's why you can't kill it.
What is wrong with this picture (paraphrasing) "in 2004, the cost of 256 MB USB memory will cut in half from it's current $223 (125 pound) price". What planet is he buying flash memory from?
"Spam will get worse"
"Apple won't release a tablet, phone, or camera"
These are some of the most amazingly crappy predictions I've ever seen. Easily half of them have already come true. The rest are obvious enough that my 5-year-old already knows they will happen.
---gralem
USB "flash memory" sticks will become very popular, and applications will be released that can be stored on them to run on any computer without altering its settings.
These things are hard to part with once you get them. They're so nice to have, being able to carry around documents or what have you, but the only thing that stinks about them is that you can't just "hand them off" to others like you can do with floppy disks or CD-Rs. When something like that costs $40 or $50, it's hard to let it go.
The other disappointing thing is that, unlike Floppys / CDs, if your system goes to hell, the BIOS isn't equipped to automatically boot or mount a USB memory stick, leaving you shit outa luck if Windows is behaving badly (reminds me of the time I thought I could help someone install a service pack on an XP machine by keeping it on my memstick...turns out that he needed the service pack to help fix a problem he had with USB devices (downloaded and installed a USB 2.0 driver fix for his motherboard that needed XP SP1, which he didn't have) and it left us both high and dry until I got back and burned it onto CD...he didn't really want to wait four or five hours to download the 50MB file from his modem).
But you know, I'd LOVE to see a bootable pendrive option...it would be so sweet and easy to help someone fix their computer by just plugging your handy-dandy USB memstick right into a USB port and have everything right there at your fingertips, rather than carry around bulky CD-R media.
Camera phones will never be that big. I work at a cell phone store, and the only people interested in buying one are people too young to sign on a contract. Sure, we sell some here and there, but most people see no need for it, because there isn't one. My thinking is that PDA phones and smart phones are the next big thing. They have the benefit of actually having added functionality.
The ubiquity of the iPod, the return of the Mac, and the simplicity of the portable memory stick
Haven't all these happened already ?
This guy isn't going out on a limb at all.
A few picks from his list:
"Spam will get worse before it gets better",
Well..... yeah!
"legal music download sites will arrive properly"
already happened
"The majority of the download stores will keep using Microsoft's Windows Media Audio format, but Apple won't support that on the iPod."
Of course.
" Picture phones will become pervasive; it'll be unusual not to have one."
This is not going out on a limb. It'll be hard NOT to buy a phone with a camera in it, since that's the trend already.
"Neither the Windows Media Center nor tablet PC formats will take off. Both will grumble along in background sales, but won't ever become mainstream products, nor even significant in sales terms."
Already happened. In fact, MS already sent out letters dumping the tablet PC within the last week.
"* If you're buying a computer in the coming year, don't get one that uses Windows. It's simply too insecure. (Did you know there's a secret "administrator" account and password on every machine? You didn't? Every hacker does.) Get one with the Linux operating system installed (Evesham does them, for example) or an Apple machine running OSX. Both systems are fast, stable and secure. With Windows XP... well, sometimes two out of three really IS bad."
has this guy heard of root?
He's going to say battery still not dead yet. I have iPod 24 months old now and it still holds around 80% of it's charge still.
The PC Weenies: 11 Years of Online Tech 'Too
Why not go a step further and add telephone notification or email notification to the system, plus ability to remote control the system from your phone via Java or email. Here in Japan, everyone's mobile phone has email and all the new ones can run Java apps; in fact, the very latest Vodafone has a digital TV tuner. According to Charles Arthur's predictions for 2004, everyone in the States will have fancy phones, too. Imagine the following: The home security system can send updates in real-time to the homeowner, including video-feeds from the outdoor or indoor cameras. From the mobile phone the homeowner can run a Java app to send commands back to the home security system (or send them via email if the phone doesn't support Java). Incoming email: someone is tresspassing. Remote Homeowner: *uses Java app to view video feed* -- ah, it's just my son coming home from school. Incoming email: someone is tresspassing. Remote Homeowner: *sees video feed: it's a stranger* -- selects option to play audio warning on outdoor speakers. (if that doesn't work, he or she can dial the police and report a burglary in real time!) Incoming alert: someone is tresspassing. Remote Homeowner: ah, it's Ned Flanders. *selects option to play sound of Homer snoring*
------- "One of the joys of travel is visiting new towns and meeting new people." -- G. KHAN
Have a look at this. You can boot Knoppix (or a stripped down version) from a USB memory stick. Cheers.
DVD Ripping, Divx, VCD, SVCD under Linux
Why not go a step further and add telephone notification or email notification to the system, plus ability to remote control the system from your phone via Java or email.
Here in Japan, everyone's mobile phone has email and all the new ones can run Java apps; in fact, the very latest Vodafone has a digital TV tuner. According to Charles Arthur's predictions for 2004, everyone in the States will have fancy phones, too. Imagine the following:
The home security system can send updates in real-time to the homeowner, including video-feeds from the outdoor or indoor cameras. From the mobile phone the homeowner can run a Java app to send commands back to the home security system (or send them via email if the phone doesn't support Java).
Incoming email: someone is tresspassing.
Remote Homeowner: *uses Java app to view video feed* -- ah, it's just my son coming home from school.
Incoming email: someone is tresspassing.
Remote Homeowner: *sees video feed: it's a stranger* -- selects option to play audio warning on outdoor speakers. (If that doesn't work, he or she can dial the police and report a burglary in real time!)
Incoming alert: someone is tresspassing.
Remote Homeowner: ah, it's Ned Flanders. *selects option to play sound of Homer snoring*
------- "One of the joys of travel is visiting new towns and meeting new people." -- G. KHAN
I agree with what he said about viruses - that there will be more viruses out there that send spam, steal credit card info, steal passwords, ect. I'm not sure about his claim that those virus writers will be members of organized crime, though.
However, he also says that viruses won't be that destructive because people who have made recent viruses didn't have them destroy hard drives when they could have. What he ignores is that a virus that destroys it's host is pretty much useless, because it no longer has that host. Viruses like Blaster and Sinkin are dangerous and destructive because they continue to spread for months while the user does not know they are infected. If the virus killed it's host quickly it would not spread nearly as much.
I have blog like everyone else
>>reinstalling and reconfiguring crashware
What if that's your job?
If Windows actually worked as advertised, A LOT [more] of us would be out of work.
This is sad, but true.
You know you're a geek if you've ever replied to a tagline.
iPod sales have increased 140% over last yr and are anticipated to increase even more this yr. Powerbook sales have increased by 40% and PowerMac sales have improved by 30%. Mac sales are rising and won't be slowing down anytime soon with new G5 lineups coming this yr which includes hitting 3GHz and beyond and Xserve servers and Powerbooks. In about 5 days we will see the cheap iPod introduce which will just mean more sales for Apple and almost complete dominance in this sector of the market.
I don't see Apple surviving past 2005.
I don't see you making much headway as a fortune-teller, let alone a business analyst. (I know, "same difference")
I have decided that the "Apple is dying" thing is a disease. It has to be some sort of brain-inhabiting virus that just keeps moving from host to host. No matter what you do to stamp it out (facts, figures, lobotomies), it has already moved on to the next susceptible (i.e. apple-bashing, close-minded) brain. I guess we will have to live with it. It almost makes me wish Apple did die, just so these people will finally *shut up*.
(By the way, in between the PPC, iMac, and G5 you have things like the Titanium Powerbook, iMovie and all of the other amazing iApps, OS X, and, of course, the iPod and iTunes Music Store. So, yes, your theory is a bunch of garbage.)
Boom Shanka
yeah. sure.
did anybody actually click on this? You have to pay to read the 2003 article...
very kind of him to explain "consolidate"
oh, btw what does "galvanise" mean?
is this really noteworthy? all download stores use mp3.
yeah. sure.
aka "files"
on the computer there will be a general software framework that can "read" these "files" and enable you to "work" with the "contents" independent of the OS and hardware: document files, excel files, image files, html files, audio files.
can anyone imagine normal users doing that?
I don't use the Mac, but I can't imagine that to be true: document and email macro viruses?
______________________________________________
sigamajig...
That's something I'm looking into and it is very interesting. 256M, though, is not enough. A 1G USB stick could be the sweet spot for having both apps, data, and (optionally) an entire OS. At current prices for 1G sticks, though, I can't see many people doing it so development will be stalled.
Most apps need to be installed or require a runtime environment that has to be installed
To boot a USB stick currently requires BIOS changes or a boot diskette/CD and waiting. The alternative is to have a VM of some sort 'run' the OS as a guest.
Fixing either of these issues seamlessly will take awhile...probably won't happen in 2004.
A firewall can not protect you from yourself. Turn off what you do not need. Do not use the firewall to do your work.
You are very good at deceptive marketing. Apple would be proud to have such supporters who are unable to do fair comparisons (hell, that's you why you use a Mac right?). Why don't you compare the iPod to a device that it's actually intended to compete with that uses similar technology?
$300 (Amazon) for a 20GB Rio Karma = 1.5 cents per megabyte
$400 (everywhere) for a 20GB iPod = 2 cents per megabyte
Also, it's not "Ipod" you fuckhead; it's "iPod."
it's not secretary, it's now 'administrative assistant'. secretary was way too gender based.
mind you, this has not changed the satus of nurse, but that term has had been much less of a differential then secretary for a much longer time
Creationists are a lot like zombies. Slow, but powerful and numerous. And they all want to eat our brains.
on most new mobos, there is a feature to boot off usb HD and pendrives, my soltek mobo has that feature and and i have seen it on older motherboards, unless of course, were speking of two different things here
*resistance is futile, or fuzzy, i dunno*
Happy new year. We got snow in Holland!
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
What he ignores is that a virus that destroys it's host is pretty much useless, because it no longer has that host.
Hmmm, not sure how you missed it, but I'm pretty sure that's exactly what he's saying here:
---------------------------------------------
SERENITY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Return of the Mac, eh? Well, I'm sure Apple's market share will increase, and maybe the Mac will 'return' eventually, but I think it surely will take longer than a year. This is not something that happens over night, you know...
Sig Nature
Er? Am I reading this correctly, he ranks Windows two out of three from that list? Well, my Windows box hasn't crashed on me in monthes. But, then again, I havn't turned it on in monthes. No reason to, since I got my Mac.
Well, I did kind of miss that sentance, but at the same time, he started the paragraph with There won't be a huge internet-busting data-destroying worm or virus.
I would submit that while, say, blaster or code red wasn't a data-destroying worm, it was certainly a very damaging virus to the internet and to networks. The way he starts the sentence makes it sound like data-destroying viruses are more dangerous to the internet, while I would argue that they are less dangerous because they affect fewer people and don't damage networks as much or as long.
I have blog like everyone else
They've been a bit down and not that special for a while in the past, but they've come back up I reckon they're gonna keep going up now. For the first time since Win 95 the world at large is just beginning to look at alternatives. OSS has it's inherent problems in the eyes of the companies who may use it (both founded and unfounded worries). Apple has released OSX in a few incarnations, all of which are pretty damn nice, filling the gap nicely when companies want to update their infrastructure.
When high capacity MP3 players are bulky and ugly they come out with iPod series 1. After the hype goes away they swoop in again with more capacity and Windows compatability. Finally they tie it in with the ITMS placating the music industry while locking people into paying them for music rather than any other download service. They don't even get hate mail for this lock in because, quite frankly, their product is good enough that people don't really want to bother with the inferior alternatives. How many people have you heard grumbling that they can't move from ITMS to Napster 2?
When 64 Bit is coming to be not only the next big thing but also buzzword of the day, the G5 comes out and holds its own because, once again, its a damn good product.
Next year the iPod moves into the low end arena and stands to smash the competition if it's priced right and done well (which it probably will be).
Already happened. In fact, MS already sent out letters dumping the tablet PC within the last week.
No, they sent out letters killing the wireless "Mira" displays.
There is a significant difference between the two.
--- I do not moderate.
Boy, talk about taking it to bizarre ends. How obtuse you are.
Not every device needs to be a Swiss army knife.
Actually, information would like a turkey sandwich.
But you know, I'd LOVE to see a bootable pendrive option...it would be so sweet and easy to help someone fix their computer by just plugging your handy-dandy USB memstick right into a USB port and have everything right there at your fingertips, rather than carry around bulky CD-R media
My Memorex USB Thumbdrive *is* recognized by the BIOS. It *is* bootable. And you *can* put Linux on it.
You're right. Your anecdotal evidence is much more valid than IDC's top five.
It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.
"3. The US will start another war on $random_country for support of $random_terrorist_group."
$random_country appears as random, but really is an item from the @countries_of_interest list. But you are right about $random_terrorist_group, except that "Islam" is concatenated to each of these groups.
Theoretically, the job of the IT industry is to make itself obsolete by self automation (recursive automation?).
While that won't happen for a long time, if ever, continued improvement in technology/manufacturing processes and an increasingly computer literate population mean fewer and fewer 'support' jobs will be required.
Once upon a time, any computer was surrounded by scientists; typically the very ones that designed and built it from scratch. Today, hardware generally takes care of itself most of the time (can you remeber the last time you replaced a vacuum tube?), and software is.. well, ok software took a nosedive, but the general populace are getting more literate so it kind of cancels out..
Opportunity knocks. Karma hunts you down.
Generally I thought his predictions were pretty good, but this one was a little too late:
Digital media players will be released which can store and display gigabytes of photos. Hard disk space and small liquid crystal displays are cheap; and both nature and marketing people abhor a vacuum.
There are already a lot of these things around! There's the Archos if you also want to listen to music, but plenty of photo-only oriented devices like the XDrive or Nixvue Vista. Heck, even the iPod has an attachment to store photos now (no viewing though).
Some of these devices can even view a few different kinds of RAW files, not just JPG's or movies.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I have an iSkin case for it - thin rubber that helps a bit to cushion shocks.
How durable are they? Well, I won't say why but my iPod has endured multiple repeated hard slams onto a floor - I don't mean dropping it, I mean throwing it as hard as you can at the floor beneath you.
And of course the HD is almost never actually spinning. Lots of people jog, I use the iPod in my car which can get really bumpy at times, and never has it skipped or been hurt at all.
If what you want is something where you can jog or hike while listening to music, there really is nothing better than the iPod because of the variety of music you can store.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I have a loathing for picture phones because I feel as you do. But I wanted good bluetooth support, and bought an Ericson T610... now I have a picture phone. Will I use it? Not much. I tried it once at a concert just for the heck of it and the results were really poor.
So I think what he's saying here is that every camera maker will get in on the trend of providing a phone in the camera, not so much because consumers demand them as that the companies think they do.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
"Ubiquitous" and "omnipresent" mean "existing everywhere at the same time". "Endemic" means roughly the same thing except within a specific region, sometimes with a sense of being confined to that region.
"Obsequious" and "servile" mean "submissive to the will of another".
ipod and mini ipod will be hit by a wave of cheap replacements that both allow you to store/play music AND video. These will integrate with mobile phones (2G).
I think instead the wave of small devices coming out to do what you say will be hit by the mini iPod. People might buy a phone with that capability, but still use an iPod.
Multi processor machines will begin to take off in the business environment. Single user, multi machine setups will smooth the rollout of Linux/OpenOffice and make people more productive
Businesses will never adopt multiprocessor in a big way because few business users need multiprocessing, most people at a company are very single-task focused. I already saw the push for multi-processor pentium computers die a number of years back. They'll remain a niche very useful for technical people (though the realm of technical jobs will expand slowly).
Also, few businesses will adopt multi-processor computer for technical people who need them because they are all looking at costs and ubiquity of platform too much and very little at benefit. Ubiquity of platform is unfortunately the watchword at companies today.
Not that any of that will slow the adoption of Linux.
Appliances that take advantage of home broadband links and WiFi will take off.
I see that as being at least two years off still, until Apple tries to build something. No-one else has any good ideas it would seem, and if anyone did they would have announced them early as is the trend (for anyone but Apple).
Microsoft will get scared, and will run towards early launch of XBox 2 as a home machine. Failure will spell the fall of Microsoft.
I think you are right about early release, but I'm not so sure about the failure. This remains a big open question as far as I can tell. The game market is really fickle, or at least willing to move platforms quickly. It all depends on the games they get, and the games other don't! Sony will, however, continue to dominate no matter what as they have their finger on the pulse of what is needed to be a really widespread platform.
The Apple House will be unveiled
I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds ominous. That's not a Poe reference, is it?
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
is this really noteworthy? all download stores use mp3.
All? Only one, the only one that doesn't offer music from major artists and labels. ITMS uses AAC.
I also agree with the prediction that one other store will cave to using AAC, after the wave of miniPods arrives and gives the market a sound marketshare thrashing.
a "files"
on the computer there will be a general software framework that can "read" these "files" and enable you to "work" with the "contents" independent of the OS and hardware: document files, excel files, image files, html files, audio files.
You missed the point. He's saying whole applications will be released on USB sticks that you can just plug them in and run - kind of like game carts.
Can I imagine users doing this? Oh yes.
I don't use the Mac, but I can't imagine that to be true: document and email macro viruses?
What email macro viruses? Mail.app doesn't support them - not even Javascript. What document viruses? OS X does not have VBA support needed for these things to work. You fail to understand just how poor Windows security has become and hoe well off other platforms are actually having learned and applied lessons on security.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Are ther any statistics on Mac viruses? Obiously we never hear about them because their affect is much less noticable but I'm curious nonetheless.
Maybe you couldn't find a Zen because they weren't selling well so the store only ordered a small limited stock?
T Money
World Domination with a plastic spoon since 1984
I expect consumer use of VOIP will reach flashover for consumers this year, IF the government does not meddle. I think it WILL meddle due to the ranting and raving of local Bell companies. We are already seeing the statements of the FCC in regards to whether they will regulate VOIP.
Why is it that for the past couple of years we hear that Apple's MACS are returning? Didn't they return with the IPod last year or the IMAC so long ago? What the hell? Do they keep getting flat tires on their way to the party?
My prediction is that pro apple people will continue to say the ay of apple is on the horizon. *note I like apple I just find it funny that we hear the same pro apple stories very couple of months*
I think we were all surprised that one of these crosslinked pundit proclaimations was actually well thought out. A refreshing change. Still I'd like to comment on some things from the article:
* There won't be a huge internet-busting data-destroying worm or virus, because virus writers appear to have moved past that stage of simple, wilful destruction. Any of the viruses which appeared in the past year could have wiped hard disks clean once they'd propagated; they didn't. That suggests that, as in real life, where very few primary infections kill their hosts, the writers of "malware" have realised that destructive programs have shorter lives.
I disagree. And it all depends upon what one considers "destruction". The age of worm/virus destruction, especially in terms of security, commerce and privacy hasn't even begun yet. I still think that worm and virus development is in an infantcy stage. What we've seen thus far are little more than experimental forays into testing propagation techniques and sophmoric cyber protests. The ability to launch an exponentially-propagating set of code across billions of computers is too enticing to not begin to be explored on a more insideous (i.e. "commercial") level.
Sooner or later, we're going to get hit with something huge. It may not explode in a singular, destructive event like the remedial worms of the past, but it will likely be much more damaging in a less attention-getting manner. Look for the proliferation of worm-based secret proxies and information gathering tools. Look for spammers being the driving force behind the development of this technology, which will then be repurposed for even more nasty political and economic terrorism.
* There will be more viruses and worms that silently exploit holes in Microsoft Windows for criminal motives - such as passing on credit card details and bank passwords. These are the offspring of virus writers hired by organised crime.
I agree, as I said before, but I'll go one step further and identify "organized crime" as spammers, who will incubate this new technology which will then be used by terrorists.
* Legal music downloading stores will arrive properly, spurred by the arrival in Europe in the spring of Apple's iTunes Music Store, which will galvanise people with iPods (of whom there are a lot). Those people have ignored existing online stores because their iPod can't play the Windows Media format used by most operations.
I'm going to go against the grain on this one. I really do not think, unless the music and media industry fundamentally change from their current soulless, formulaic model of pushing unimaginative crap upon the public, that any of the current music-selling business models will be anything more than a fad. I believe the success of iTunes has more to do with boredom than it does innovation and the public's ever-increasing short attention span is going to nuke this industry, probably as soon as this year.
* Picture phones will become pervasive; it'll be unusual not to have one.
Hello? 1960? Are you there? Even now the camera-equipped cell phones are goofy and more annoying than they are practical. I have a hard enough time wanting to answer the phone in person. Hell if I'm going to be sending video at the same time. This will never happen in the next 5+ years, if ever.
* "PVRs" - which store TV programmes on a hard disk - will become more widely available at lower prices. They will compete head-on with DVD recorders, which have the advantage of permanence but the disadvantage of the cost of the disks. With hard disk capacity doubling for a given price, it'll be hard for DVD recorders to compete.
Now you're talking. This is going to be THE singular, huge tech goliath that shakes the modern couch-potato world. But its effect will manifest itself differently than what you predict IMO.
I would qualify this more by saying products like TIVO will be the big, HUGE hit
I don't think the USB drives will take off like he is thinking, I think that maybe that the SD cards will become the portable media for the new year and years to come, I truly belive that they cards are the floppy drive replacements of the future. With every one having a PDA, and both palm and MS both supporting the SD card. There is the key (as much as this is not liked here a /.) the backing of MS will push the SD cards into the like light. I have a card reader, and an SD card and some of the people I have to take larger files to have eather general card readders of a SD only card reader. And it sits in the palm when I am not using it.
"Did you know there's a secret "administrator" account and password on every machine? You didn't? Every hacker does"
This guy is clueless.
Sure, Windows has a hidden Administrator account. And Mac OS X has a hidden root account. And every Linux/Unix system has a root account.
... can be found here.
- First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then ???, then profit.
can i have an ipod cradle in my flying car?
Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
Windows may now be (reasonably) stable and there may be 3rd-party apps to help out with what's missing, but I really do agree with the author when he asks people to get a non-Windows system. Think about it. When you get a new Windows computer these days, you have to:
- put it behind a software firewall or a router
- get antivirus software (or else use something besides Outlook/Outlook Express)
- get 40-something critical updates, including SP1
- consider anti-spyware and/or pop-up blocking software
Can you imagine expecting a first-time user to know to do all that?
I don't think so, and the worst part is that this may mean the customer having to shell out X amount of extra dollars to speak to a PC tech after their system gets compromised by Blaster or they get so many pop-up ads as to render the system unuseable. A $399 PC won't seem so cheap if you end up paying someone at least once for support or can't use your computer during a critical period.
A Mac is expensive, true, but at least you aren't under serious threat of having an unuseable system just by making a direct connection to the Internet without multiple security programs installed. Even XP SP2 won't get rid of adware and spyware.
...the crime there makes NY City look like a upscale gated subdivision. And guess what? Neoliberal policies are importing Bogota and Mexico City here...
eat shiat and bark at the moon
He is a definite contrarian with a dislike for corporate power. This is well acknowledged in the political world. He is a card carrying union member. There are plenty of corporate butt-kissing politicians out there already. How about we get someone who is going to watch OUR back for us, instead of being in the pockets of the corporations?
eat shiat and bark at the moon
The weakest looking president I can think of would be Truman, and Kucinich is a couple notches below him. But I do like his views-- which is what is supposed to matter most in an ideal world.
--
Power to the Peaceful
(Fortunately things never got that bad (for the rich) even during the great depression.)
--
Power to the Peaceful
2004 is the year every musician and artist gets introduced to their very own sub $400 high quality recording studio. That includes their very own high quality DVD recording studio. That includes Creative Commons licenses exploding across the Internet. That includes the RIAA taking one very big DUMP!
Look for audacity and cinelerra to rise to the killer app level in a few weeks. Now, that changes our lives a lot, doesn't it?
However, there is a demand for non-picture phones from people who simply aren't allowed to have a camera at work. Those sorts of jobs ain't burger-flipping, making it likely that somebody will address the demand for a phone with all the hot features execpt a camera.
/. If the government wants us to respect the law, it should set a better example.
Instead, buy one with Linux.
/home/knoppix/Olympus. Drag and drop in Konqueror.
.bz2's, .tgz's, or even rpms?
Or buy one with any OS and install Knoppix in twelve minutes.
Then try to find some apps
Most are included, apt-get for nearly all the rest.
or gamesthat run on it.
Loki, Wine. Loki games sure are cheap on eBay.
Try to install them. Try to install the myriad of different libraries that each require, and the myriad of libraries that each of these requirements require.
Something particularly difficult about typing 'apt-get update' and 'apt-get install' ?
Try to print something on your printer.
Postscript/CUPS works flawlessly with my APPLE Laserwriter 16/600.
Cry like a baby.
Neener Neener, Windows User!
Try to copy your pictures off your digital camera.
mount
Try to share your hard drive so you can access stuff from another computer.
you lack exposure to Samba and the wonders of FTP, the program GFTP specifically.
Cry like a baby.
You sure do bitch a lot.
Hose up system.
Synonomous with installing Windows.
Go to store and buy a retail copy of Windows and wish you had bought a computer with Windows in the first place.
I'm quite confident that day will never come. Buy Windows, you mean people do that? How quaint.
I'll say it again, Linux is great and all, but is not a viable desktop system yet, and won't likely be anytime soon.
Sure it is. I've been using it instead of Mac OS9 since April. Is there a learning curve? Absolutely. What I'd really give my left arm (or at least a couple fingers) for is a good INTUITIVE vector-based drawing program. I'd even PAY HANDSOMELY for a port of Mac Graphic Converter. But not pay handsomely enough to buy a Mac these days. Maybe when the 1GHz iBook makes it under $999.
And yes, I'm sure YOU could do all the above just fine, but really, what Typical End User will, realistically, recompile stuff into their kernel, load/unload modules, download and install stuff from
I've rarely, if ever had to do any of this with the Knoppix hdinstall.
What typical end user just happens to know all about using Samba, manually editing text files, changing run levels, mounting stuff from the command line, etc? NONE!
Finally we can agree on something. Perhaps to my credit, I've been able to apply my generic computer knowledge to learning Linux and use Google for the things I don't understand. But Knoppix really cuts down on those instances. I find it much easier to install and use than many "traditional" distros. Is it perfect? No. But it's damn good. Keep in mind that I jumped in 'cold turkey'. I've run Macs since 1991. I literally sold my much-loved and much-upgraded beige Mac and was left with the dual PIII machine I'm typing this on. I tried Windows 2K and gave up after a week when any attempt to burn CDs resulted in a BSOD and reboot. I began seriously regretting the day I packed up and shipped my Mac. So I installed Mandrake in desparation, used it for a couple months, made some dumb mistakes, then moved to Knoppix. Now I wouldn't have Windows as my desktop OS.
Really, just because you're an elite hacker who does this stuff for fun
Not at all. I'm just a fairly bright guy that can learn new things. I was a custom cabinetmaker for ten years, for heaven's sake.
doesn't mean it's at all within the realm of possibility for REAL consumers/computer users out there.
Who, pray tell, would be more 'real' than me?
A 400 hard disk that can only be used to play music is going to become ubiquitous? Riiight.
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Does he mean I can break into any Windows machine I want? I'm not a hacker, so... What's the account and password?
But it is heading toward it.
A device that stroes a picture in our personal files whenever we see something that is worth recording could come from a phone, which already has the network and needs the camera and bandwidth, or from our PDAs, or from adding the relevant bits to camreas.
That suggests convergence to me.
You are obviously brighter than the typical end user. Most people I know in the real world (outside of geekville), are NOT capable of doing anything you described. Family, friends, people who work in other departments at the place I work, none of THEM, and THEY are who I call typical end users, would have a clue. Having been a support person for Microsoft products, I can tell you from first-hand experience that getting a typical end user to do something as simple as opening a dos window and getting a directory listing is NOT as simple and easy as you and I think; FOR TYPICAL END USERS .
And yes, I have been using/configuring samba via command line text editors for years, thank you. My mom, however, who is a little brighter than the typical end user, does not have a clue about the concept of sharing directories in Windows. The thought of trying to get her to understand this, and to teach her how to configure Samba, is horrifying!
Really, REAL END USERS are quite different from those of us in geekville who don't mind figuring this stuff out on our own. Most don't want to know, and shouldn't be asked to. That's why they have Windows. It would be nice if Linux could serve as a replacement, but it simply can't, not now anyway, and probably not any time soon.
"Would it kill you to put down the toilet seat?" -- Maya Angelou
It isn't just an MP3 player. I couldn't see spending $180 on a MP3 player alone. I'd rather get a walkman and listen to FM/CDs for 30 bucks. However, on my $400 iPod, I can use it to wake me in the morning, backup important files and boot a copy of OS X Server. Can your $180 MP3 player do that?
You could soon carry a stripped-down operating system in your pocket to boot any machine to look like yours.
Thats kinda funny because some people have been talking about doing this with there new Amiga's since the entire OS is only around 50-100M a cheap flash memory stick would make there computer portable.
I believe it's already been stated you can boot off these as well, which is pretty cool.
Heres my amiga prediction. AmigaOS4 Shall be released this year, first as a Developer Pre Release CD for those who purchased the early bird Amiga's and then a free copy of the real CD will be released for those with the early bird systems.
Giving IE users a taste of their own medicine since 2005 - http://pods.-is-a-geek.net/
I don't use the Mac, but I can't imagine that to be true: document and email macro viruses?
I don't use MS Office, so maybe I'm wrong... Wasn't MS Office for the Mac changed a long time ago to not execute macros automatically. I think you at least get a dialog these days.
As for the hard to imagine part... I guess Windows will do that to you. I've been using the Mac OS daily for nearly 7 years now, and I've never had a virus infect any of my systems. Viruses simply are not a problem on the Macintosh platform. I personally find it hard to imagine fearing infection just trying to update a system on the first day of use. Seriously, is that just anti-MS propaganda or prudent advice?
Don't be so confident about the destructiveness of viruses. As recent outbreaks have shown a virus can circle the globe almost instantly and infect the majority of available hosts in minutes.
A particularly devestating tactic would be to infect a host and hook itself into file system calls. It could begin encrypting the entire drive in the background with a random key. It could transparently decrypt any requested files on-the-fly so the computer would continue to work just fine. Aside from a possible slight slowdown, you wouldn't even notice you were infected and the virus would have plenty of time to encrypt the entire drive.
So long as you don't power down, the key remains in memory, everything works fine, and the virus continues trying to infect other targets on the internet. Infected computers would remain up and running and attacking for hours or days or even weeks. The instant you reset the computer the key gets wiped from memory and your entire harddrive is unreadable garbage.
If the virus loses it's network link it goes into kamakazi mode, wipes it's key, and destroys any remaining unencrypted portion of the harddrive as fast as it can. If it detects an attempt to back up the drive, it goes kamazi. If it detects a disinfection attempt, it goes kamazi. And then of course it would have a timer to go kamaki.
Yes, the infection would self-terminate after a few hours or days, but virtually every infectable machine would be slagged.
The virus could randomly go "dormant" on say one tenth of one percent of infected computers. It would first "wake up" and start attacking at random time delays after most copies have self destructed. That gives you an installed base of several thousand random machines to re-initiate further waves of infection.
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- - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
Criminality in developed countries has been steadily decreasing according to official and serious statistics for the last few years (look it up yourself, ia am doing quite enough debunking your lies). If shooting don't decrease in the US is because USians are nuts, but aprt from that even in the US criminality is going down no up.
Poverty has also decreased steadily in all developed countries, the US specially.
Rich countries do not import poverty, pervert liar. Most people that travel to other countries either to work or looking for assylum stay in the countries closest to were they live (Afghans mainly went to Iran, Kurds to Turkey for example, we are talking millons here, not a few thousend that rich countries would allow) and generally people that can afford to travel are better educated people that make a net contribution to the economy. The whining of some people in rich countries for receiving a few thousend of migrants is frankly disgusting and just reflects some darker agendas which I don't wish to discuss here.
As for poor migrants, full economic sectors would collapse without the help of foreign low skilled workers. Just look at the south of the US (check who is doing all the gardening, janotorial and construction work) or the agriculutral sectors in France and the UK.
The US has been receiving poor migrant workers from Latin American countries for generations and at the same time its economy has grown and poverty has been diminished.
Ditto for the EU: when poor countries join the EU (Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland) supposedly people in richer countries were going to get poorer and jobless. Well guess what, it did not happened and all economies growed.
So no, your "predictions" are based in nonsense and as such have only value as a resource for this rethorical exercise.
IANAL but write like a drunk one.
What document viruses? OS X does not have VBA support needed for these things to work. You fail to understand just how poor Windows security has become and hoe well off other platforms are actually having learned and applied lessons on security.
Mac OS X DOES have one big gaping security hole... it's called Microsoft Office. Granted, that's not Apple's fault, but since Office is one of the most purchased apps for the Mac, it's worthy of notice.
The Mac can propigate Word and Excel macro viruses just as well as Windows can... but not much else. Any attempt to access the hard drive fails when the script starts looking for "c:\". Generally, Macs are carriers but not itself afflicted by the macro viruses.
Office on the Mac is not as big of a hole because of a few reasons:
1) Not many people use Outlook on the Mac because they already have Mail.app.
2) Most of the office macro exploits rely on the VBA stuff I mentioned before to do anything of interest. And because not many people store things in Outlook, there's almost no access to email viruses.
I have Office and it's not nearly the security hole the Windows version is. Add into the mix the lack of integration into the OS that Office has on OS X and it's not really an issue at all. I can't think of one Word macro virus that will actually run on Office X.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Destructive viruses won't disappear, but will instead get smarter. Even though a virus too destructive for its own good may not work, there are other ways to be malicious, such as a virus that remains hidden, spreading until a certain date, and then...
------- "A true friend stabs you in the front." -Eliot