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Dvorak On The Future Of The Xbox
Thanks to PC Magazine for its John Dvorak-authored editorial discussing his view of the present and future for Microsoft's Xbox game console. Dvorak rages: "Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail, leaving the Xbox in the dustbin with the last great American hope for a super game machine, the 3DO box from circa 1993", before continuing: "I think it can be argued that high-expectation syndrome was partially responsible for the deaths of both the 3DO machine and Sega. It definitely plays into the Xbox story... Compare this rollout to the original Sony PlayStation 1's debut... it just kind of appeared and worked its way to the top by attrition." He ends by musing: "Keeping the Xbox alive is important to Microsoft. Its pride and prestige are at stake... We will see an Xbox II. Whether it fulfills Microsoft's dream or becomes a collector's item remains to be seen."
right? I mean it's so crappy that it is dead.
Cry Cry Cry
I do a little work in the 'industry'. That guy is a complete IDIOT. Not to mention he sounds like a Nintendo (or Sony) fangirl. He's probably really 14 years old because that's about where his knowledge level of the industry stands.
What color is the sky in Dvorak's world? The Xbox is outselling the Playstation 2. Xbox parties have quickly replaced LAN parties, and the fact that you can mod the hell out of it has almost turned soldering into a fad. The only place I can see the Xbox as hurting Microsoft is that PC gaming may suffer as a result. But what does Microsoft care if they already control most of the PC world through Windows anyway? If anything, the Xbox is increasing Microsoft's stronghold in the home.
This written from a Gamecube fan.
The World is Yours.
Wasn't his editorial written concerning how Microsoft should be pouring money into cleaning up the 'spaghetti code' that he claims runs amok in Redmond? Granted, I skimmed through the article awaiting my father's recovery from retinal surgery, but I really do not remember any in-depth discussion of the Xbox. I hope his editorial is seen as a call for a new management paradigm, and not just another voice calling for the solution of a problem by more spending. That would make some investors a wee bit nervous, don't you think?
is it that bad seein a hot chick again? if i see a hot chick walkin down the hall i dont say "repost"
As a self-proclaimed Apple expert, he:
- Predicted the death of Apple for years and years,
- Predicted that the stratospherically successful iBook would be a disaster,
- Most recently, he predicted in March of 2003 that Apple would move the Mac to Intel in the next 12-18 months. Apple's got 3 months left to do it... what do you think the odds are?
The guy should change his name to "Anonymous Coward" for the amount of trolling he does. So now he's an Xbox "expert," eh?Dvorak?
"It is our blasphemy which has made us great, and will sustain us, and which the gods secretly admire in us." - Zelazny
From the sales figures, the x-box is certanly not dying, hell, i finally bought one last week (refurb though). Although the increase in sales could be because everyone already has a PS2, so now people are buying xboxs. But has Microsoft actually made any money in their gaming department? They have $50 bil in cash or whatever, so any loss is inconsequential, but iirc, microsoft took like a $200 hit on each console, its probably more now that they're cutting prices. I think the demise of the xbox will be its use of standard PC hardware, 1 $25 modchip and a standard IDE hard drive and you can copy as many games as you want, depriving microsoft of more money. Not that thats the reason i bought an xbox...
"Sic Semper Tyrannosaurus Rex."
Dvorak is slowly becoming the Nostrodamus of the high-tech industry. I think it's about time he started writing apocalyptic theories in book form and sold them through thinkgeek. Meh, he certainly doesn't deserve space on any part of slashdot.
schild
editor, f13.net
It's kind of funny, but after reading your post history you seem to complain a lot about "fanboys". Don't you think it's a little stupid to draw lines in general? It's natural to favor one flavor of things over another, but it's the lowest form of human behavior to start arguments and wars over it.
To sum it up: who the fuck cares? It seems the only way to escape such an immature stereotype is to either own all three current systems, or none at all. What the fuck is wrong with you? Really? Stop worrying about the large, multi-billion dollar corporations who own your soul and steal your dollars, and go play your fucking video games. You should be siding with consumers in general, and not voluntarily giving more power to an already overwhelming and controlling entity.
Smell like cabbage...
This from a guy who claimed Apple should stop making computers and software and that blogs offer the world nothing new when it comes to original reporting.
I really don't see how this guy knows wtf he's talking about...
the company has not been able to get worldwide sales, especially Japanese sales [..] but it still has not been popular enough to become a profit center for Microsoft.
I never remember Microsoft stating that they intended to make a profit on the first Xbox. It was their introduction to the market - and for a debut product they've done remarkably well. They've done better than Sega and (arguably) better than Nintendo.
The product itself is rather good for a first effort (controller slip-ups excepted). It's definitely the platform with the most longitivity due to the superior hardware specifications.
All this has recently been compounded by Microsoft's decision to cancel or delay the release of its online game True Fantasy Live Online.
A game company cancelling a game is not a big deal in the industry. Heck, I've worked in the games industry for 6 years - and been working on 2 titles when they were killed in various stages of development. Cancelling a title isn't a death-blow to a company as large as Microsoft.
Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail
They're doing very, very well. Their main competitor is Sony. Sony is not going to take competition sitting down and has been fighting just as dirty as Microsoft, especially on their home turf in Japan. Microsoft has made impressive headway - done well in the US and Europe, but absolutely slaughtered the competition in some markets like Australia.
It's not like Sony hasn't made some mistakes - the PSX (Playstation 2 media center) pre-emptive strike against a possible Xbox 2 based "Media Center" was a disaster for Sony. There's no reason at all to doubt Microsoft's future in the console market.
The 3DO machine was the first 32-bit console; there were great games for it and it had powerful underpinnings. Its $700 price tag was probably the main thing that killed it, but it also suffered from the same problem that the Microsoft Xbox has suffered from: high-expectation syndrome.
Huh? 3DO comparisons aren't valid. 3DO was DOA because it wasn't marketed towards kids (who couldn't afford it), adult gamers weren't interested because there were no games (and Sony hadn't yet created the adult gaming market) - AND the 3DO didn't live up to the hype. But by all accounts from a consumer and developer perspective, the Xbox hit all expectations placed on it. I certainly have no regrets about my purchase, or about developing for it. I've played some great games, have some great games, had 2 titles published - and there are a number of games that I'm looking forward to.
I had experts come on my radio show and tell me flat-out that the Xbox would become the number-one gaming console, with Sony number two and Sega and Nintendo probably dropping out. [..] The relative lack of hot games reinforced the negative attitude, as did the promises that many of the hot games on the Sony platform would be "ported"--and when they were ported, they'd somehow be better. Some were marginally better, but not enough to change anything.
So somebody in marketing exaggerated a product's claims to a member of the mainstream media. Yawn. Really, were you born yesterday? Calling yourself a "journalist" would be some sort of exaggeration, but I don't blame you for trying.
However, you seem to forget that there weren't many good games when the Playstation 1 launched either. Sure, there was "Wipeout", but the PC version (or "port" as you seem to think that's a dirty word) looked much better. The killer Playstation 1 game, "Metal Gear Solid" began development when the machine was being designed. According to lore, they had a prototype running when the hardware was only at 30% of it's final speed. It was *several years* after the launch of the PS1 until that game eventually came out.
And it's the same situation on the Xbox - only last year and this
Shut up, nobody cares about you. Go do something productive and break all your fingers please.
I want 2D games back.
Mr. Dvorak comes over as a barely-intelligible fanatic.
I'm the first to admit that the X-Box has not achieved global domination. The only company ever to have made such a first-impact on the console market is Sony, and they did this with the PS1 when they entered a market which was much less business-savvy and brand-conscious than the current console market. Microsoft have also yet to crack in to the Japanese market, although I sense this wasn't really one of their initial priorities. All the indications are that their focus is shifting in this direction, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this change.
What the X-Box has achieved in its first generation is to ship at least as many consoles as (and probably a good many more games than) Nintendo, despite Nintendo having many generations worth of experience of the market and a console with a remarkably low price-point. That this has proved expensive for Microsoft shouldn't come as a surprise, but nor should it diminish their achievement.
I highly respect this guy, he's a brilliant and insightful person, and rarely have I questioned his views.
:)
However, the XBox is clearly superior to the PS2 in a number of ways - namely the hard drive eliminating memory card confusion and enabling faster load times. It's graphics are far superior (HDTV 1080i anybody?) and faster. Ethernet out of the box. Rips and plays music. It has four controller ports (Sony is retarded). Granted it has its weak spots - that you need to buy an extra "output adapter" and "remote control" to unlock all its features - but that's only to make up on the money lost by MS on the base system.
Anyway, it seems to me Dvorak is probably taking some really good drugs, in which case I strongly suggest he make that the topic of his next article. If that's not it, I smell the stench of Sony's deep pockets and strong desire to keep a weaker product in the lead, hurting everybody in the end (see: ZIP drive). Or, perhaps he's never actually used an XBox. But I doubt he'd lie, or take a bribe. Drugs it is - do tell.
It does not matter what you think or say on this subject there is one thing you can all be 100% sure of.
:p
I will be playing games on a PC a long long long time after the XBox has come and gone.
Consoles come and go, the standard good old PC is here for the long run.
I don't know what all the fuss is about and why these XBoxers get so wound up on this subject.
The Xbox truly does not deserve to survive, it has already had an impact on the PC game market. With games being cross developed and the complexity of the PC version being dragged down to cater for console mentality and the XBox age demographic.
The Xbox is bad for the PC game market.
At the end of the day, the Xbox is just a PC with a really crappy spec.
I'm not trying to flamebait anyone on, but I've noticed people (not just on this newspost) like to say that the Xbox is ruining the PC market because of cross-platform development. Besides Deus Ex: Invisible War and Thief: Deadly Shadows, both of which were developed by Ion Storm mind you, can anybody name another game that was hurt as the result of this? I think people are mistaking Ion Storm's poor choices in development as some sort of nasty plot by Microsoft to cripple the PC market, because they certainly wouldn't want people to go out and buy PC's that run their operating system, heh.
I don't believe that the Xbox is failing. Just look at E3 this year, and you can see that Xbox exclusives like Halo 2, Burnout 3, Jade Empire, Fable, etc were walking away with a lot of awards, not to mention Xbox Live's success. I'm not trying to say that Xbox is the best system, because I think each of the big three systems has their own strengths, and I own them all. I think it's outrageous to compare the Xbox to the 3DO, though, as to this day I couldn't name you a single game for the 3DO, whereas the average gamer is probably aware of Xbox's lineup.
can anybody name another game that was hurt as the result of this?
Bungie was originally a PC (And Mac !) developer. And a damn good one too. (I hope you've all played Myth & Marathon)
I think the logic behind the 'XBox hurts PC' charge is that MS winds up buying development companies, and makes them XBox only. Like they did with Bungie. That, and the potentially more lucrative market for the XBox takes focus away from PC development.
--LordPixie
MS profits on sales of a surprisingly small amount of, well, anything. Think about how much MS makes when you use MediaPlayer, Internet Explorer, etc. MS isn't about selling a bunch of products, they're about controlling the platform. The idea behind the XBox isn't to turn a profit. It's to put a MS platform in as many living rooms that they possibly can. Once they've got that sort of control, then they can start making money. It's not like we haven't seen this before...
--LordPixie
You know you're wrong when even Slashdot doesn't agree with your anti-ms bashing.
You know, Microsoft takes a lot of heat for crushing the competition.
Now the XBOX is taking heat for not crushing the competition.
In my view the XBOX is doing well. I know just as many people with a XBOX as a PS2. Nobody I know has a GameCube (well except me I have all 3 but I'm sick).
Right now if most people want a new game system they pick the XBOX, the PS2 is seen as being "old" and the Gamecube is not seen at all.
Either way I hope there is enough market for all 3 and that the games keep coming.
http://www.kubuntu.org/
And considering how much money Microsoft is losing now, I don't think Microsoft will wait 12 years and will almost certainly give up before then.
I'd like to draw your attention to this Cringely article. It's a (long) opinion piece on MS' business model. Two points are made about the way MS works: 1) MS has incentives to increase losses. Yeah, you read that correctly. Without losses to balance off their massive growth in the Office/Windows department, they'd plateau and go nowhere. 2) Microsoft has basically saturated the PC market, and sucked as much profit as humanly possible from computer sales. Thus, they have to move into new markets.
Keeping the top two points in mind, the X-Box seems to be doing a perfect job of what MS wants. Now, I certainly don't expect you to whole-heartedly agree with the above article, but do at least read it...
--LordPixie
Dvorak, you can't be serious... he's kidding right... just trolling?
The xbox is alive and doing quite well... It's also quite superior to the ps2 in many ways. Anti-aliasing, high def support (beyond 480p), xbox live, games load quicker, look better and it's now pretty dang cheap. personally, I have even come to prefer the new s-controller over the PS2 controller, but maybe that's cause I'm playing the xbox so much.
"Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. "
That just goes to show, you can't have a monopoly without a market that agrees with you.
"Derp de derp."
I've read a fair number of Mr. Dvorak's columns over the years, and they've led me to a conclusion that the man isn't qualified to make observations about what he ate for breakfast, let alone the high-tech industry.
There's just this... feeling that I get from every column of his that I've ever seen. He has all of his facts straight, but he doesn't have a clue as to how to put them together. It's a testament to the incompetence of computer journalists everywhere that he still even has a job.
I turned my XBox on last night and it works just fine. Admittedly, it has been neglected of late as I've spent a lot of time on my PS2 playing FFXI. That aside, the XBox is not dying yet. Instead, the real threat comes from within Microsoft itself where the company has shown a history of cut and run on anything outside of Windows and Office. It's hard to argue the numbers though, since right now at least PC gaming may make more money for MS than XBox gaming since PC gaming must be driving some PC sales which of course means Windows and Office sales.
But, if they can come up with the games to drive sales in Europe and Japan, then things could turn around dramatically. I think (with no evidence whatsoever) that internal politics may be keeping them from doing what must be done in the way of aquiring local development talent for the overseas markets and of course marketing effectively there. There's no secret to what Sony did to become the dominant player in the console market. Microsoft just has to decide that this is a game they want to win. I think the future of the company depends on this more than they would like to admit given the rise of Linux and OSS solutions on the desktop.
To the making of books there is no end, so let's get started
Halo had a very large PC fanbase going for it before Bungie was bought out. I have absolutely no doubt that Halo would have been a significant success saleswise had MS not come along. It might not have been widely considered the best game on the platform, but a success nonetheless. Bungie had a excellent track record with the multitude of Marathon and Myth titles. The cult-following alone would have made Halo a hit. It most likely would have garnered mainstream recognition as well.
--LordPixie
If MS could get away with it they could always put create an PS1 EMU for the XBOX but that would hurt there sales of XBox games.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
Xbox is the best thing since sliced bread. He probably saw the sign outside "No nerds allowed, that means you Dvorak"
Bah.
Morgahastu got a 4 for funny?.. that's a 5 on informative!
"..you need to buy an extra "output adapter" and "remote control" to unlock all its features - but that's only to make up on the money lost by MS on the base system..."
Actually, making the remote control as a seperate purchase was a slick way to avoid paying licenses to the DVD consortium (or whateverTF they're called). At first I thought this was stupid, but now I realize it makes sense. You would have to pay another $15-20 per Xbox if they shipped it as a viable DVD player, and what if I don't want another DVD player? If I do want that feature, I buy it for a nominal fee. It's a great solution. When the XBox does drop low enough for me to consider making it my 3rd console, I don't need a 3rd DVD player, and don't incur the cost.
As to the extra video cables, that's just the sellers choice. Their are currently 4 ways to hook a console up to a TV (RF, Composite, SVideo, and Component), and I don't mind the fact that they don't ship every console with all 4 different types of cables. That also doesn't really count as an Xbox 'weak spot', since the other consoles also do the same.
Oh, and I try very hard to avoid excessive bias. Case in point, I don't own an XBox, still think it's an awkward, although interesting duck, yet will defend it's good points.
"... but that's only to make up on the money lost by MS on the base system."
So in conclusion, no.
-- I have fans? Wow.