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The New York Times On Earth's Magnetic Flip-Flop
TolkiEinstein writes "The New York Times reports that, relatively speaking, compasses may soon point South. It's long been known that Earth flips magnetically every half-million years or so, and, with the north pole's magnetic field at about 10-15 percent [less than] its strength of 150 years ago, many geologists feel a flip is coming up. Computer simulations also suggest that the current state of the magnetic field is indicative of an upcoming flip. Though it would take hundreds of years to complete, the impact on life may be significant but not catastrophic, including phenomena such as power-outages, satellite malfunctions and disruptions in the rhythmic functions of some animals such as loggerhead turtles. The EU plans to launch a trio of satellites in 2009 to assume polar orbits & monitor the field." (Cross your fingers for some nice solar wind.) Update: 07/13 17:02 GMT by T : Note: the summary here originally misstated the Times' article; the field 's strength has decreased 10-15 percent, rather than to 10-15 percent.
I'm sure this is Bush's fault, somehow, according to the left. I'm waiting for Peter Jennings to blame this one on Bush.
And, since the magnetic field will be weakened, there'll be a supposed worldwide 24/7 aurora. Now that's kewl.
Candy-Coated Knowledge
Beings aspergers AND pulling chicks... I enjoy the challenge!
As the Earth's magnetic field is the only thing that protects us from the solar wind...
Could they have possibly picked a more random animal for that example?
And won't someone please think of the turtles?!?!?!?!?!
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Dr. Evil has launched several satellites to orbit the polls to harness the energy of the magnetic flop and create a death ray capable of destroying mankind.
All to extort the wealthiest nations on the planet for...one MILLION dollars.
The preceding message was based on actual events. Only the names, locations and events have been changed.
"Armed forces abroad are of little value unless there is prudent counsel at home" - Cicero
I had my homework al done, but the magnetic poles flipped and wiped my harddrive...
What if we all donated spare refrigerator magnets, magnets from old hard disks, etc. and carefully arranged them at the north and south poles. These giant piles would hold the poles in place. Perhaps a lucky chain letter spam from Bill Gates would help get people to donate magnets to the cause.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
The aurora borealis, or northern lights, occur due to charged particles entering the Earth's magnetic field, being guided to the magnetic poles.
If the magnetic field flips, what about the auroras? Will we have (weaker) auroras all over the place while the field changes?
File not found. Fake it(Y/N)? _
It will be hilarous if the poles flip about the time .
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the Mayan calendar ends, hopefully it will go as gracefully
as scientists have predicted
As The southern hemisphere has its winter during our summer,
I am wondering if the seasons will flip flop as well ???
I also wonder if the polar shift will effect magma flows
I wonder if the magnetic field has any effect on plate tectonics too
Hopefully not, It is suppose to be a weak force
Peace,
Ex-MislTech
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the impact on life may be significant but not catastrophic, including phenomena such as power-outages, satellite malfunctions and disruptions in the rhythmic functions of some animals such as loggerhead turtles
And just how would this be different to any other day.
Apart from compasses pointing south and and increased demand for factor 500, we shouldn't all begin to panic needlessly.
The compass was a pretty shoddy means of navigation anyway, with the movement of the poles and all. And sunbathing?! What kind of pasttime is that?!
This could affect global warming though. Combined with the greenhouse effect we could all be fried little geeks.
I wonder if it would be possible to set up a network of gigantic electromagnets and attempt to impede or even reverse the earths magnetic flip flop?
May the Maths Be with you!
It has to be pointed out that there is a significant difference between "The field's strength has waned 10 to 15 percent." which is what the article says; and "the north pole's magnetic field at about 10-15 percent it's strength of 150 years ago" which is what Timothy says. The former means that the field strength is still 85 to 90 percent of the original value (still nearly intact), while the latter means that it is only 10-15 percent of that value (nearly gone). This distiction not insignificant. That being said, it's still neat to follow (even though I don't think that I'll be around at the end).
Doh, stupid enter key....
What I meant to say before bumping the enter key on an incomplete post was...
In the summary, it says the field is at 10-15% of where it was 150 years ago, but the article says it has WANED 10-15%, which would actually make it 85-90% of where it was 150 years ago...
From the poster's text:
"and, with the north pole's magnetic field at about 10-15 percent it's strength of 150 years ago"
From the article itself:
"The field's strength has waned 10 to 15 percent, and the deterioration has accelerated of late"
Those two quotes are not the same. The poster's lack of attention to detail has turned the articles 10 to 15 percent reduction (a relative value) into a 10 to 15 percent strength (an absolute value). The meaning is totally different, and the poster should apologize for spreading mis-information.
They talked about global cancer rates rising from the years of diminished radiation protection. They also showed how during the transition period the magnetic "poles" will travel randomly around the globe, making random locations radiation hot spots.
This would be good for Australia. No longer "down under" ... finally "on top".
I had heard about this theory, but never believed it. Then I saw a Nova show on PBS called Magnetic Storm. It's very well made and very interesting. By the end of the show, I believed the poles are set to reverse and it's just a fact of nature. Nothing we can do about it except research and prepare our way of life so things don't go to Hell in a handbasket.
But why is the rum gone?
Stand clear of the doors. The doors are now closing.
Then real fun with the flipping of the magnetic field is not that it moves uniformly from one pole to another over time, but that as it breaks down, tens or hundreds of "north" and "south" poles can develop which are spread all over the planet - see this article in New Scientist. With any luck, maybe my house might end up at one of these new "North Poles" for a while, so at least I can say I've been there :-)
It's too late for me to die young
I blame it on too many people walking around wearing tin foil hats.
"After careful consultation with my administration's junk scientists, we have expanded our Axis of Evil to include the earth's axis as well. This rogue, um, thingy is responsible for the destruction of...does this thing say turtles? But...we don't care about...oh...anyway, this rogue "magnetic thingy" can only be stopped by drilling in the Alaskan oil reserves, therefore stopping all magnetism from happening. These weapons of magnetic disruption must be stopped at all costs."
I'm not a geologist, but don't things on this scale happen very slowly? You wouldn't go to sleep one night with your compass pointing north and suddenly have it point south when you woke up. This would happen gradually over hundreds or thousands of years. Although this is geologically overnight, the magnetic pole wouldn't move significantly during a person's, or turtle's, lifetime.
Having said that, I doubt even the turtles that rely on the field for navigation would notice. They would adapt to sense the less powerful field over time or they would loose the need to use it. Navigation is done by point of reference. And since the navigational lines of force are moving so slowly, the turtles wouldn't care. The North Pole being 200 miles from where it was for the turtle's great grandparents really doesn't matter to today's turtle. He just wants to get back to where he started from a year or so ago. The shift should be slow enough for him to do this.
The reduced magnetic field seems to be much more of a concern. But, again, we will adapt much like the turtles will. But instead of adapting our biology, we'll adapt our technology. It's not that we can't make a satellite or power grid that can handle solar wind and storms; it's just that we haven't done it. Why not? We haven't needed to. Think of the reduced magnetic field as job security.
Evana Kiniski -- it was amazing. you couldn't take your eyes off her. She had huge....tracts of land.
The problem with quotes on the internet, is that nobody bothers to check their veracity. -- Abraham Lincoln
i wonder if toilets will flush counter-clockwise ?
Sanity is the trademark of a weak mind. -- Mark Harrold
Has anyone thought of his relocation???
While the article does little to posit the consequences of these competing theories, it does provide a good deal of insight as to why and when the changes occur. It does conclude, however, that "many investigators believe that the trend [magnetic pole weakening] will not continue and the field will regain its strength, as it has many times in the past."
As a Physicist I can tell you that that is exactly like science works and that it has worked well for centuries.
There is a method that, when put bluntly, is like this: "If you put forward an extraordinary, off-mainstream hypothesis you've better a) come from a respectable university/research group, b) show some extraordinary, easily reproducible evidence for it too and c) get ready for some serious ad hominem bashing, ridicule and possibly loss of funds". It all comes with the territory.
I'm glad popular science mags like SA adhere to this standard.
The owls are not what they seem
There was a big "DO NOT PUSH" sign right next to the degauss button!
you laugh at them now, but they'll be the only ones protecting their brains when the magnetic poles stop protecting us from deadly radiation.
I thought it was dicovered by observation of the odd magnetic structure of ferritic magma flows on the ocean floor.
I used to think not, but since an event a few years ago, I'm at least willing to entertain the possibility that some basic form of magnetic field sensitivity, may exist.
I've always had a reasonable sense of direction - and I have generally attributed it to a good spacial awareness - however, an incident that occurred while travelling made me reconsider what really contributes to this 'directional sense'.
At the time, I was in an aircraft heading from the southern hemisphere to the north, and after crossing the equator (not immediately, but within a few hours), my body was absolutely certain that we were heading south towards Mexico... whereas the aircraft was actually going north towards Canada.
Now, I would have thought that north was north, and crossing the equator wouldn't affect me (particularly since it wouldn't affect a compass) - but something wierd was certainly happening. The feeling faded after about 6 hours or so, and 'north' became 'north' again to my brain... but I'm really interested in any thoughts people have about what the cause might have been.
Wow... I remember seeing a show in discovery about carrier pigeons using the magnetic pole to navigate... (or at least that was the theory)... How will this affect migratory birds at large?
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Please don't repeat this to anyone else; so, you don't look like a fool. Oops, too late (as millions of /.'ers read your post)
I'm not a loggerhead turtle
Have you noticed how many foolish ideas have flourished in this supposed hotbead of intellegence this morning? According to the last poll responses, I'm guessing the average IQ is above 130 here (and well above most of your bosses).
Even if some posts are in jest, we've had folks questioning the results of a simple magnetic shift affecting the direction of the coreolis affect, (toilet flushes), tilt of the earth (seasons), loss of the atmosphere, and viability of all satellites in orbit.
Even if it happened over a couple years (which it doesn't), the only affect I've seen which is certain to happen is that the Government will be blamed for it.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
The poster says the article indicates the Earth's magnetic field is "about 10-15 percent it's strength of 150 years ago" while the article states "the field's strength has waned 10 to 15 percent."
This is a huge difference, and indicates utter carelessness on the part of the poster and editors. Please post a correction and own up to your mistates. Editors, please be more careful in the future.
"I hope that when the Earth's magnetic fields flip and new north poles are created, that one happens to be at my house. That way, I can tell my kids that we live at the North Pole, and that Santa lives upstairs and really does see you when you're sleeping and know when you're awake."
Rule #1 -- Politics always trumps technology.
You'd get them everywhere. You only get them at the poles because the field shields the rest of the planet. During the period of largely no magnetic field of any significant organization (the 2000-8000 year "flipping" time people have commented on), you'd get them almost every night everywhere.
Interestingly, although I can't find a link to it, I've seen estimates that the added solar radiation (NOT UV, so sunblock won't help) will cause 100,000 additional cases of cancer a year, but likely less than 5,000 additional deaths based on current cure rates. Given the increase in cancer treatment technology, the end result could be gorgeous nights and no signficant health impact on the developed world, and gorgeous nights and another health issue to raise money for, for the developing world.
I'd personally worry more about a climatic flip to an ice age than a dramatic weakening/flip of the magnetic field. Its hard to grow food for ten billion people on half the land, after all.
So once the poles finish reversing, will I have to hack my GPS receiver and invert its display to make its compass point to the new "North" pole?
And will we have to switch around all the highway signs so that I-95 North heads towards Mexico and I-95 South leads to Canda?
And will we have to rename North and South Dakota, North and South Carolina, etc?
The hell with the loggerhead turtles, I've got serious questions that need to be answered! :-)
A marriage is always made up of two people who are prepared to swear that only the other one snores.
Same reason there are northern and southern hemisphere compasses except it's a needle balancing issue. In the northern hemisphere, the "north" end of the needle gets pulled down, and it gets pulled up in the southern hemisphere. There are global compasses that work by allowing you to readjust the balance or by using a gimbaled disk magnet.
Hero: "If that compass (mounted to the mountain) changes direction by 180 degrees, we're all going to blow up!"
Floozie: " But won't that take, like, hundreds of years."
Cue the "exciting music" Hero: "Can't you see, we only have a few hundred years to defuse the bomb!!!!! or everyone within 1 acre of this part of the mountain is doomed!!!.
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And how, exactly, is that helping science?
The peer-review-process is badly broken. It only promotes ordodox science and the funding of already established old man.
Currently it takes two generations to accept a paradigm shift, to accept off-mainstream theories as better approximations of Reality.
Think were we could be if science would move forward much faster...
The ice ages are closely correlated to changes in the earth's orbit, usually referred to as Milankovich Cycles in reference to the first proponent. These consist of a 21,000-year perihelion cycle, 41,000-year obliquity cycle, and a 100,000-year eccentricity cycle. Since they all overlap, the superimposed curve is a bit uneven, just like the climatic cycle. Slide The 100k cycle is thought to have the greatest impact on climate.
Here's a brief overview of these cycles
There are, of course, a host of other factors that influence climate - for example, episodes of warming related to methane releases.
Thermal
90% Professional Slacker
I know the New York Times is a blatantly left-slanted, Democrat-loving publication, but referring to John Kerry as "magnetic" is just too much.
Oh well, at least they did have the decency to call him what he really is: a flip-flop.
Moderators: Laugh. It's called political humor.
In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
One needs to look only a few million miles away for a spectacular example of what happens during a magnetic field flip. Our Sun has been flipping its field direction every 22 years. When its gets close to flipping its magnetic field lines sometimes break away from the main field and become localized loops in what we see are sunspots. A sunspot is a region of the surface through which a field loop passes and cools the temperature a few percent and appears less bright than the surround solar surface. Sunspots usually occur in pairs or groups of alternating polarity coresponding to the parts of the magentic field line loops either entering or exit the solar surface. Sun spots occur in patterns migrating fromt he equator to poles over the course of a flip cycle. Huge solar storms and explosions are associated with these solar magnetic disruptions.
The problem is no one has found a better alternative. If you take out all the conservative peer-review, then all kinds of kooks start getting publicity & funding. Think cargo cult stuff.
Truth has a formidable way of eventually winning: it is the truth. No matter how derided were the people who proposed plate techtonics or quantum physics, it eventually won out because it worked better than anything else. If a result is reproducible then someone will reproduce it and confirm it. It doesn't then matter what high-ranked people in various department thought of the idea.
This means that to be a successful scientist, you not only need to be creative, smart, inventive, patient and persistent, you also need to have balls of steel and a will of iron and prepare for the worst of injustice. Not only that, but when they do succeed after a hard slog, they often become the highly-ranked people who deride other people's ideas.
A proper supervisor tells their student about all this during their PhDs. You soon find out if you are fit for the job.
You go, NYT.
Ah, bitter dregs.
Once the GPS system fails it will have repercussions on everything that depends on it. Hmmm, NTP for one. Some utility companies even use it to monitor electric load on the powergrid, the mass movement of charge, etc. Most complex control systems are useless without accurate inputs. So how big was the "margin-of-error" people designed in that lowest-bidder control systems for that Nuclear Power Plants ? If you look at what happened at Chernobyl with un-self-sustained Nuclear Powerplants you have to start worrying.
If that is not enough to worry about, what will the effects be on the worlds international food supply ? I think we have all started to notice the "Weird" weather. Zetatalk (of Planet X fame) has nice pictures correlating the changes in the magnetic field with changes in temperature. I mean evolution happens over millennia can a significant part of the Earth's food supply handle a severe step-function input, and what will the transient response be like ?
Also have a look at these:e t.mov. mov
http://www-ssg.sr.unh.edu/406/Review/rev6.html
http://ds9.ssl.berkeley.edu/LWS_GEMS/movies/6magn
http://ds9.ssl.berkeley.edu/LWS_GEMS/movies/6sec6
The magnetic field is a 'random process'. There is no real good statistical predictor of when the next reversal will happen.
As another poster pointed out, it keeps the kooks out by being so conservative that even some legitimate breakthroughs may be squashed in the process. Unorthodox ideas will resurface time after time and if they're really up to it, they will eventually be accepted.
Yes, brilliant people will be ridiculed, careers will be wrecked and our understanding of the Nature grows painfully slowly. However, if it weren't so, in the end we wouldn't have science at all.
It only promotes ordodox science and the funding of already established old man
Orthodox science is well established, well tested and a robust foundation for new science. It should be protected at any cost. No new theory should dismantle an old theory that has stood . The new theory can only be accepted if it naturally incorporates the old theory at some limit (like Newtonian mechanics is a good approximation of relativistic mechanics at low speeds/weak gravity).
Currently it takes two generations to accept a paradigm shift, to accept off-mainstream theories as better approximations of Reality.
Indeed. What's the problem? You're going somewhere?
science would move forward much faster...
Yes. In the same way as a plane that falls apart at 30000 feet.
The owls are not what they seem
Simple googling... shows it is
Mainly it occurs on high end monitors. And they have sophisticated means built in to combat it.
-
There are, of course, a host of other factors that influence climate - for example, episodes of warming related to methane releases.
[Indignant look] Well it wasn't me...
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a real useful invention.
No new theory should dismantle an old theory that has stood.
I don't agree with that. Even a single reproducable counter-example is in principle enough to disprove a theory. Even in the absence of alternative theories.
The moment you can experimentally show some effect of relativity, you know that Newton is wrong. Or more accurately, that Newton is only a good approximation for situations where the speed and distance is low.
I do agree with what you're probably trying to say though; for a new theory to be anything worth, it must explain all the occurences that the old did, and then some. An experiment which the old theory could successfully predict, must still be predictable by the new theory.
You know, it was the first Bush administration that caused this by failing to insert large, autonomous dynamos into the earth's crust. This would have stabilized the magnetic shift by generating huge electromagnetic fields.
Likewise, by killing the Texan supercollider the government stopped all research into magnetic field movements. This research would not only have helped in our understanding of magnetic fields, but would also have helped in the current War on Terror by providing valuable information on how subatomic particles can affect semi-psychotic behaviors.
And by ignoring the Kyoto protocols, the US has selfishly allowed its atmosphere to heat up, no doubt affecting the internal stability of the Earth's iron core, making the situation worse.
Plus, clear-cut logging no doubt has caused rotational differentials across the US and the world (due to less air resistence), placing undue stress on the earth's core.
Lastly, by killing millions, if not billions, of creatures, modern civilization has hastened the onset of this problem by robbing the world of counterbalancing "life" or "female" energy, energy that would have counteracted the obviously "male" and "destructive" magnetic shift.
I don't know whether to smile or frown at your statement. --The suppressive systems designed to keep people ill-evolved and ignorant certainly do work effectively, though primarily as population control measures rather than any sort of formula for attaining and sharing knowledge.
"If you put forward an extraordinary, off-mainstream hypothesis you've better a) come from a respectable university/research group, b) show some extraordinary, easily reproducible evidence for it too and c) get ready for some serious ad hominem bashing, ridicule and possibly loss of funds".
Ridicule should be a part of mainstream science. . ?
Hm. See. . . If enormous effort were not expended on instilling crippling thought patterns in people as they grew up, (largely through fear of rejection and being rewarded for punishing those who refuse to go along with the group, regardless of the inherent value of whatever the group happens to be doing). . , if the world was not thumb-pressed into submission through all manner of social and economic pressures, then the growth of knowledge through science would, I think, be truly astounding.
Don't get me wrong. --I certainly adhere to, "I'll Believe it when I See it".
But I also think just as often that, "I'll See it when I Believe it."
--When I finally grew a spine and stopped fearing ridicule and punishment, (which, interestingly, are entirely harmless threats the instant you realize their nature), I discovered that there are fundamental forces in the universe which are keyed on and indeed, which are made from the stuff of consciousness itself. There is nothing but energy, after all; why is it such a leap for so many to take the next few steps?
Science which is locked in the material boundaries of what has been deemed 'acceptable' is self-limiting to the point where it is nearly impossible to advance. Throw in a bushel or two of kooks and cultists, and the game is pretty much done for. --That is, when biased scientists affront the 'impossible' with nostril-flaring scepticism, they actually go a long way to preventing themselves from being able to register entire hosts of phenomenon. --As well as suppressing certain patterns of reality through the force of their own subconscious will and intent.
As such, extraordinary evidence will never be found under such conditions. This is the paradox upon which Faith is based. (A dirty word, to be certain, largely thanks to the other massive mind-control project known as Christianity.)
And that's just the way certain groups would like things to stay, and I don't see attitudes changing. It looks more and more like it will be a destructive and painful shifting of affairs after all. (More so for some than for others.)
Ah well. Interesting times and all that. . !
Cheers and good luck to you!
-FL
God damn it, I am tired of Jack Holes saying that a compass points north and when they flip it will point south.
Hello, Earth to idiots...is it that hard to understand that a compass does NOT point north, but it aligns with magnetic north & SOUTH.
If you want your compass right now to point south, paint the other end, and when they flip if you still want it to point to our current north, paint it's corresponding end.
This aint rocket science for Christ sake. Anything that can distinguish "north & south" will work EXACTLY the same when the polls flip, as it will still be aligning with the magnetic polls, just like it always has and always will. Though your stupid little GPS programmed by stupid people who have stupidly programmed it to "point north" and not "align with the magnetic polls" as it does will probably not work right, but only because of the stupid programmers.
Do not ask me why, but this crap really pisses me off, go figure.
The east coast and west coast rappers will be all messed up once the flip occures and north is south. What does happen to east and west, seriously?
~~ Behold the flying cow with a rail gun! ~~
Earth's pole is just gonna perform a binary switch in order to signify to aliens that it's time to invade.