Slashdot Mirror
Japan's 20-Year Plan for Space
rwven writes "Japan has just released information on their new space plan which will take them through the year 2025. Included in their plan are robots and nanotechnology for moon surveys as well as an eventual hydrogen powered mach-5 capable plane, a mach-2 capable passenger airliner and a manned mission to the moon. They will consider missions to mars and other planets after 2025. Space.com is also carrying this story."
I've had flying cars in my 20 year plan for about 50 years. I think TIME Magazine and National Geographic have as well. So, we'll see this Japanese stuff in 2057 is what they're saying, right?
schild
editor, f13.net
...their plan is to buy all the real-estate on the moon.
The more competition in the arena of space, the more designs get tested out, and the quicker we find what reduces the cost of spaceflight and what makes it more expensive. The only downside is that we'll have to deal with the oversized Hello Kitty decals flying overhead :P
What a crazy random happenstance!
I wonder how much cooperation is going to be forced on the space faring nations over the next couple of years as they vie for more expensive technology with ever shrinking resources.
If brevity is the soul of wit, then how does one explain Twitter?
Over the next decade, JAXA's plan calls for scientists to develop robots and nanotechnology for surveys of the moon
I thought Nanotech was still in its infancy. What are they going to do, dump a bunch of buckyballs in a crater?
Top 10 Reasons To Procrastinate
10.
And why is the Japanese government getting involved?
Boondoggles. The Japanese government is corrupt and is known for spending money on construction projects that have little public support.
I had prepared this rather long post in response to the Shuttle Rollout, but I'll sneak it in here since it mostly applies.
Shuttle Rollout -- What crack? We don't see no crack
I started to prepare this post when the rollout was in jeopardy, now: engineers determined the crack was a "minor imperfection" Hopefully not famous last words. I'm surprised the CNN.com article Shuttle Rollout Under Way hasn't been posted on Slashdot's main page yet.
These things are big, the external tank by itself if 154 feet long, so about the size of a 15-story building. Even though these things haven't been up in space for the last 2 years doesn't mean they are weathering and aging just sitting on the ground. The vertical assembly building has its own weather, so it's not like these things are sitting in an air-conditioned office 27-7.
The fleet is getting old and were expected to have been replaced by now, though after each having each done something like 50-100 missions individually -- numbers we will never see. What percentage of car owners are driving cars built in the early '80s?
Until a replacement vehicle comes along we should have been building at least one new shuttle every 5 years. Didn't get 50 missions in? Tough -- decommission at like 10 or 15 years. Sure it can cost more money to build things more slowly 1 at a time, but if you schedule for it, and budget for it, its not necessarily more expensive. Just make sure your build rate is commensurate with the mission increase. Then you get to use better materials, better technology in the newer vehicles. Granted there is something to be said for uniformity in guaranteeing safety, but the shuttles are not all identical by a long shot. Columbia couldn't dock with the ISS for instance, but could theoretically have brought the Hubble down from orbit.
There are costs in certifying old equipment, which may not equal new equipment cost, but I'll bet in the Shuttle's case they are getting close, or exceed what replacements costs would have been if we had kept a low turnout build process in place.
Now we are paralyzed and unable to do anything reasonable with our manned program.
My recommendations:
Letter To Iran
All this Japanese talk of the moon and beyond is great -- and welcome, but I think Japan should concentrate on simply putting a human above 62.5 miles safely first...without cancelling the program.
"Other aerospace projects include a passenger airliner that will travel at Mach 2 -- or twice the speed of sound -- for five-hour Tokyo-Los Angeles flights and an unmanned, hydrogen-fueled plane that can travel at Mach 5." - these are projects, many projects dont go past the ideas stage. dont be fooled by the word eventual, it shouldnt be there
Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job. - HHGTTG
They have obviously run out of places to put hidden giant-mecha hangers, and are looking for room to build more.
Robotic moon surveyors, indeed!
my comic
This is one thing that I love about Japanese culture -- the ability to plan long-term. Their companies will develop 5-year plans while here in the US, we're preoccupied with every 3 months...
One man's Funny is another man's Offtopic.
Hey, if Japan just gets me decent sat. imagery for New Hampshire that Google Maps can use, I'd be happy ;-)
Honestly, while they wouldn't say it publicly, they're getting involved because of China. China has been very successful with their space program as of late, and as a strategic foe of Japan, and with some high-profile failures recently, Japan has to play catch up. Not that it's a bad thing, mind you - I'd love to see both of them dump all of their money into spaceflight and related research that they can, so that everyone else will reap the benefits. Research is expensive. Hardware is expensive. Testing new designs out is very expensive. Let the Chinese and Japanese pay for all that they can ;)
What a crazy random happenstance!
I think there is a fundamental difference in thinking between corporate USA and much of the rest of the world. US corporations are increasingly quarterly driven and "long term" is starting to mean thinking two or three quarters out. I have not RTFA, but I expect the Japanese actually have a planned program.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Now they can put the robot we saw in action here in space and have them fight the ultimate war of the machines. Imagine you having nuke armed robots on mars attacking flying robots over jupiter... pretty cool
fuvoo: watch something
I could live in Japan. I already watch way too much anime and read too many magnas. They have, like, five story stores there with nothing but. :-)
Why should Asian space efforts go for "manned" space flights?
I love Star Trek as much as anybody but the human body is a very difficult payload to sustain. If Japan is going to do serious planetary exploration (...and I wish them well at this...) then the first step should be to define goals and discard things with a low payoff
Apart from publicity stunts and tourism (... which should be self-funding ...), what goals are served by putting humans on the moon or in cislunar space?
Robots can explore far more cheaply than humans, so for any particular amount of money, we can do more exploration with robots than with humans.
The idea that humans can make on-site decisions better than robots can is simply an artifact of time-scale. That is, while there is some necessary time-lag between a robot noticing a funny rock on Mars or Titan, reporting back to Mission Control on Earth, and then acting on directions ... so what? The robot is patient, doesn't sleep, and if properly powered doesn't have to worry about food supplies.
Like I said, I love Star Trek but until we get really, really serious advances in technology, lunar and cislunar exploration is more sensibly done with robots.
But I'd be interested in contrary views.
--- Attorneys Assisting Citizen-Soldiers & Families -
if you want to make Eris laugh, make plans
Deliriant isti Americani.
Perhaps it would be best if we were to convince the Japanese that they should take over the stewardship of the Hubble Space Telescope and the Voyager Probe, both of which are now slated for abandonment by the Bush administration. This would give the Japanese the ability to take over efforts that were well run and highly successful. As discussed here on slashdot, the very small costs would hardly be a blip compared to their current plans.
Americans could then consider this just one more instance of outsourcing under the Bush administration, a policy that they've applauded. -- ScottCost reductions will only happen if there is significant competition from cost consious buyers. The space market will have to change a lot before that happens.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
A Japanese on the Moon in 2057!
Hey, we're realalistic.
or else you would know that they are MANGA and not MAGNA.
yes, typo, I know. But still....a real Otaku would use a japanese to engrish spellchecker.
click me
I wonder if the space ship will use 4 rocket boosters mounted sideways, in an innovative space saving design with front rocket Drive.
Um, sorry, I'm not really bright today, you're being sarcastic right?
"Space: The Final Frontier. These are the voyages of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. It's twenty year mission: To explore strange new worlds... To seek out new life, and new civilizations... To find new markets for Sony Walkmans, Plasma screen TVs and those cute little Tamagotchi... To Boldly Go Where No gaikokujin Has dared go Before..."
[up music, cue plastic model... pan camera to simulate entry into warp speed...]
Orginally posted by Guppy06:
"Gee, but everybody on Slashdot already knows that manned space exploration just isn't worth it! Everything we could possibly want to do in space can be done by robots!"
Was that sarcasm? I hope so. There are very good things that could eventually come from manned exploration of space. It could lead to the eventual colonization of space which could be an escape from the whole hell's kitten affect. Not to mention that there are things the humans might be able to adapt if something goes wrong that robots can't. It's still risky and dangerous now but that's why it needs developed. Trust me, once China reachs the moon and starts putting coloneys up there the US will suddenly have an interst.
Of course there really isn't a specific need except consider countries that stop exploring become third world countries.
National prestige. That's why. Not all money spent needs to be justified on a quantifiable physical or economic asset. Somethings just can't be graphed on paper. In the end, the feeling people get seeing their citizens on another planet can arguable have more of an impact on that society than spending the same resources on robot missions.
People are allowed to be people, you know. Naturally curious and sometimes doing dangerous and expensive things that have no obvious economic interest.
Burn Hollywood Burn
If Mars had plaid-skirted schoolgirls living on it they'd have been there twenty years ago. Am I right? Am I right? Is this thing on? Thank you, I'll be here all week.
You are in error. No-one is screaming. Thank you for your cooperation.
Wow, you hit the nail on the head. But your point about letting them do the reascearch is a good but misleading one. While it's good to let them pour resources into development, that might lead to them surpassing us in the feild of space exploration and in turn could lead to us playing catch up. While we'd be able to benifite from the technology they develop, you have to remember that infastructor is very time consuming to get into place, so we'd better not sit back too far or we may find ourselves left in the dust.
First mechas now space missions. What's next, ninja hackers?
But for exploring the moon, less than 2 light second away, frankly a remote controlled robot is far more than enough, and all decision making are on earth, without having to take tons of water, food, meatbags, air, and protection against radiation or whatnot. And that was I think the point of the poster. He was not in any respect speaking of implementing any decision making into a robot.
C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
visit randi.org
Where are they planning to take off from? All the space centers I have ever heard of have always been in remote locations. And last time I checked, these aren't in abundance in Japan...
It really strikes me that nobody evaluates the feasibility of things like Mach 2 air travel in the face of the end of cheap oil era on the horizon. Even as anybody can observe the total failure that today's airlines already are -- due to that very factor.
We can already do those...
Where's the friggin' VERITECHS!?!?!
Fifth Generation Project
There's no mention of Mechs. Or the Yamato. Not even a single reference to a wave motion gun! Ah well, maybe those are in the next 20 year phase.
Seriously though, good luck Japan! I only wish we were as forward thinking as you guys seem to be. As it is, we can't even find a few million to keep getting data from Voyager.
Learn from us, do yourselves a favor and budget past those 20. You'll be glad you did, someday.
Weaselmancer
rediculous.
How the heck do you get there if you aren't willing to leave the planet? I mean a robot can only do so much preparation...
Is this an improvement over the ~600mph and 50000' boost that an aircraft (such as the X-series research aircraft's B29s/B52s and SpaceShipOne's White Knight) could provide?
(747's already piggyback the Shuttle - granted, that's without boosters/external tank, but an aircraft that large still wouldn't be prohibitively expensive, and smaller aircraft can be used to further prove the concept).
Japan is broke as well is the United States. How does japan plan to accomplish this feat? More debt i assume?
Damnit.. why don't they have a moderation for "Groan" ... and then people that haven't groaned enough during the day can set that REALLY high...
and read nothing but really, really bad jokes all day.
But, while we're on the subject... "If Mars had Oil in it's belly, the US would have invaded it years ago, claiming the aliens were being ruled by an evil overlord"
"There is a reason Linux is free"
~me~
Bring on the MECHA!!!
GET FREE APPLE STUFF!
Aerospace really seems to be the one place that Japan is behined the US, the EU, Russia, and even China.
Take a look at there "plans".
A Mach 2 airliner? The Concorde already did that. A Mach 5 unmanned aircraft? The shuttle and X-15 already beat those speeds and they where manned.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
It's funny how we were dicussing Japan and Mars in the Mars Rover story and then boom, here it is again
In America, you spam computers In Soviet Russia, computers spam you!
a robot can only do so much in space, its decision making capabilities are limited by what is programmed into it, a human being is flexible enough to change the plan if the need arises. robots in space can only show us so much, i'm all for manned space exploration, 100% behind it.
besides, maybe this is the swift kick in the ass that the U.S. needs in order to get their space program moving at a faster pace.
/. is overrun by bed-wetting elitist nerds
let it be known, for anything other than servers, a *nix OS sucks
If we're ever going to get off this frigging rock, we need man-rated vehicles, we need efficient launch solutions, we need fast turnaround and we need sustainable habitats.
NASA has one man rated vehicle that is grossly expensive to launch, has a turnaround that is at best seasonal, and is currently used to service a barely sustainable habitat that is essentially a badly under-crewed garbage barge orbiting too low to avoid reentry without constant readjustment.
NASA, assuming they have ANY interest in the future of manned spaceflight, just isn't getting the job done. Competition is good. It took getting our ass handed to us by the Russians with Sputnik, etc. for us to even start giving a shit about space- if China or Japan puts a man on the moon, you can bet we'll be busting ass to beat them to mars.
500 years ago you probably would have been insisting on a land route to china, since it's Safe And Proven and Doesn't Risk Equipment Or Lives, etc, etc.
to power Japan's and China's space flights.
At least some countries believe in scientific research, even if we don't.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
You don't have to be so closed-minded and nationalistic. I think its fantastic that China, India and now Japan are working on their space programs, as they'll no doubt bring things that Europe, the US and Russia would not. What's more, any 'space race' that leads to "us" being overtaken can only encourage "our" governments to increase spending on space.
They're called planes.
Mada mada dane.
Cheated! I want my giant robots!
Nice to see Japan is ambitious about their space program. However I noticed they had no plans drawn up to keep Rodan from interfering. http://www.tohokingdom.com/web_pages/kajiu_bios/fi re_rodan.htm
...and I was SO sure this was about population density.
I wonder if it will have a huge Type R sticker on it. R standing for Lunar.
(think about it)
. (sorry)
My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.
Airlines may be failing but last year we tried to book a round trip Los Angeles to Tokyo flight and could not get one, even though we were buying weeks in advance. Go to LAX and watch, they have full 747 aircraft hourly on the Tokyo route. People are paying premium prices too. Some routes are very profitable although most aren't. Yes we did get to Japan but had to do the trip in off-peak season to get affordable rates for the whole family. If there was a concord-like aircraft that could do a transpacific route it would be booked solid even at $2K per seat.
I think it's great that someone is finally talking seriously about putting someone on the moon for real. How will they contend with the Van Allen belts that scared the yanks into faking it though?
JAXA, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, has an extensive English-language site. Some good stuff in there.
space race! .. space race! .. space race!
WURD!!
Japan ran out of space years ago?
From what it shows here there may not be many Japanese around to fly to the Moon... Oh, I keep forgetting, they will be the first to implant their 125 year old brains into robotic bodies...
We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
Trying to solve a problem is one of the fastest ways to come up with solutions to that problem. We are currently enjoying many of the technological advances acheived by (or for) the manned space program. Waiting for technology to advance enough to do something doesn't make as much sense as actively advancing it.
If you want a vision of the future, imagine a youtube comments section scrolling - forever.
I saw a documentary on the Concord a while back, and they said that the biggest problem they had wasn't technological, but getting overflight rights for a supersonic aircraft.
If countries wouldn't do it for British Airways, why does the Japanese government think they will for JAL?
"Everything we could possibly want to do in space can be done by robots!"
Except be flexible and respond to unexpected situations of course.
Government of the people, by corporate executives, for corporate profits.
Seriously, though, it's weird because 2025AD used to seem like THE FUTURE!!! Whereas it's actually now only 20 years away, which isn't really all that long. Computer tech aside, was 1985 all that different from today?
[Activates DeLorean, goes back to 1985] ... ...
Me: Hi! I'm you, from THE FUTURE!!! 2005, to be exact!
1985 Me: Wow, the 21st Century! So, did we get our flying cars?
Me: Um, no.
1985 Me: Jetpacks? Bionic implants? AIs? Robot servants? Semiballistic airliners allowing us to reach anywhere in the world in two hours? Space holidays? No more poverty or hunger? A cure for cancer? World peace? No more self-serving shitwicks in high political office?
Me: Sorry, no, none of that. But on the plus side, our videogames kick ass, there'll be a new Star Trek TV series and there's this thing called 'the internet'.
1985 Me: What, like William Gibson's cyberspace?
Me: Again, no, not really.
1985 Me: Wow. The future sounds really shitty. At least tell me I get rich in the next 20 years.
Me:
1985 Me: Laid on a regular basis?
Me:
1985 Me: Okay, find me a bottle of whiskey and some pills. I'm going to create a time paradox.
You must think in Russian.
"sending space shuttle missions to Mars."
I was unaware of any plans to send the space shuttle beyond low earth orbit. Way to go AP.
That's EXACTLY the same as my 20 year plan for space! Well, exccept for the line item under 2010 that says "...profit" and the last line that says "Continue profiting."
"Hell's Kitten"? Sounds like a bad 1950s movie.
Whaddaya know? It is. Well, 1970s movie anyway...
sounds like a reasonable plan, i agree with ThreeE though, they need to get people out there first - baby steps!
after the unknown debris hit the wing on columbia, i knew in my heart there was disaster ahead. they brought the shuttle back in without special consideration to the take-off incident (or at least any that we know about). i'm worried about this flight too, our ancient shuttles are kind of a joke and a blemish on NASA and our great country's space exploration.
i will soon be starting my moon real estate company...
Do or do not. There is no try. --Yoda
Good luck to 'em, but this doesn't seem to be funded. Will the Diet budget committes believethere won't be substantial budget increases in the outyears?
/..
Oh, the Space.com story is the same AP story ref'd earlier in the intro. Thanks for paying attention to details there at
-- Slashdot: When Public Access TV Says "No"
Everybody knows five year plans are the way to go.
Before we have affordable, useful and frequent human access to space, we need to build the infrastructure to support it. By itself, the private sector will never build that infrastructure.
By infrastructure, I mean launch facilities (spaceports) for crewed LEO vehicles; the vehicles themselves, with a payload capacity of at least 100 tons; maintenance, fuel and logistics depots in LEO to support crewed travel to out of LEO; vehicles capable of reaching the Moon in hours and Mars in a few weeks; regularized and dependable flights to support humans resident on the Moon and Mars; and the statutory and regulatory system to permit and regulate all this activity.
Building the infrastructure to support space flight will require a government-funded public works effort analagous to the construction of the Erie Canal, the building of the American railway network, and the nation's interstate highway system.
Each of these efforts had a transformative economic effect, yet the private sector was unable and unwilling to build them unless government took the lead with initiative, direction and funding.
Space travel will have a similar transformative effect. It will also require government to take a leading role in the creation of the engineering and technology that will enable the private sector to travel in space as routinely as it traveled on railroads after the railroads were constructed.
The efforts of Rutan and others are praiseworthy, but they lack, and won't acquire, the resources needed to build the needed infrastructure.
-- Slashdot: When Public Access TV Says "No"
Finally, a place to send all those SONY robot dogs... SPACE!
This plan by the Japanese is aggressive. They not only intend to enter the aerospace business, but they intend to dominate it and do it quickly.
It looks to me that, perhaps, the major technologies are in place for a real space race. Personally, I'll place my bets on China.
The reason that it can be true that 1+1 > 2 is that very peculiar nonzero value of the + operator
Well... if I start walking now...
UTF-8: There and Back Again
Astronaut: Houston, we've found a Lost Temple on Titan with a Beckoning Door.
Several Hours Go By
Ok, please note it. We've still got to collect the samples of martian rocks and dust from beneath the cliff-face. If we've got some time after the six-month long dust, rock and other kind of dust collecting mission we'll send a rover by for a closer round of picture taking in november.
"Your superior intellect is no match for our puny weapons!"
Chikan
Grope-fest
Pervert Express
It is by the juice of the coffee bean that thoughts acquire speed, the teeth acquire stains. The stains become a warning
Unless your one of those people who compares a 200billion$ manned mission to a 200million unmanned mission then sending people to mars is going to be worth less than spending the same cash and sending lots of robots. First off it's a planet aka a large place so it's better to send robots to 1000 places than send humans to study one real well. Second with robots if something goes wrong then you send another one with humans you either send replacement parts that might not be needed or have everyone dies or you can't do good science because you don't have interment x. Besides, spending billions on R&D for robot's gives us better robot's spending billions to send food and water to mares teaches us nothing.
Ok, now if you wanted to send say a 1000 people to live there for 30 years and setup shop so we could send millions of people to live there well that would be one thing but as long as it's a set up shop for a year and go home it's a waste of time IMO.