Slashdot Mirror


When Microbes Ate the Ocean

museumpeace writes "When /. discussed a story about microbes that could break down water as a hydrogen source, many commentors went off on a tangent joking about runaway germs eating the oceans. Now, prof Joe Kirschvink and students at CalTech propose that indeed, the worst iceage ever, which nearly ended life on earth 2.3 billion years ago, was the result of algae evolving the ability to break down water and flooding the atmosphere with oxygen. The absence of oxygen consuming organisms at that time is said to have lead to destruction of atmospheric methane which had hitherto warmed the earth. The professor concludes: 'We haven't had a Snowball in the past 630 million years, and because the sun is warmer now it may be harder to get into the right condition. But if it ever happens, all life on Earth would likely be destroyed.'"

246 of 425 comments (clear)

  1. Re:The first Slashdot troll post investigation by AnalogBoy · · Score: 1, Funny

    I do agree with you on the ego thing. I've met -so many- linux zealots who can't back their claims of superiority with one fact, yet, they hate windows.. for no reason except the stereotypical "It crashes all the time!" and "Microsoft is a Facist Monopoly bent on world domination!". I forgot who said it, but i like him or her: "Open Source; Closed Minds".

    It was a good idea. The problem was the application - Stallmanism ruined the OpenSores image, in my mind. I will never recommend a linux solution where a "Established" solution could take its place. Partially because of technical reasons ; but mostly because i wouldn't want to risk having someone adminning them who's too busy keeping their thumb up their arse to care about the company.

    Slashdot is flawed, fundimentally. Unfortunately, its kind of fun. Screaming 14 year olds, as is said, having pissing contests over l33tness when they wouldnt know the difference between ATDT and ATH0, or SysV and BSD if it got up and shoved a clue by four up their output port. Hey, its better than sitting at work staring at the birds frying in the satellite transmitters on a slow day!

  2. Correction by Propaganda13 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It didn't end all life on Earth, and it probably wouldn't if it happened again.

    1. Re:Correction by spikexyz · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Yes, See SLIMES (subsurface lithoautrophic microbial ecosystems) that exist deep in the earth *completely* disconnected from surface activity. They get heat from the earth's core and food from breaking down rocks; these would probably survive and in time could recolonize the surface.

      See: Wilson, E.O. The Future of Life, 2002

    2. Re:Correction by SlashdotOgre · · Score: 4, Funny

      Well the microbes might not, but my Ice-Nine will!

      --
      Sadly, PS/2 was yet another victim of USB, which doesn't care what you plug into it, the electrical slut.
    3. Re:Correction by Bi()hazard · · Score: 4, Funny

      How are you gentlemen!!

      In a little while you'll notice that several test tubes containing water-processing microbes have gone missing from laboratories around the world. Well, it's in safe hands. If you want them eliminated, you'll have to pay me...one million dollars!

      Gentlemen, you have five days to come up with one million dollars. If you fail to do so, we'll set loose the microbes and destroy the world.

      Gentlemen, silence! I didn't spend six years in evil medical school to make things so easy for you. The million dollar payment must be delivered to us in the space shuttle Discovery, with a crew of operators who will join our organization. To ensure that pirates (we are all well aware that pirates are the greatest threat of the digital age) do not hijack the shuttle, it must be loaded with an arsenal of fully functional nuclear weapons.

      Upon taking possession of our one million dollars and its vessel, we will compensate the cooperative nations of the world by eliminating terrorism once and for all-by monopolizing it. Just as the FCC is eliminating dangerous rogue broadband providers, we will eliminate rogue terrorists and consolidate operations into a single, efficient, capitalistic evil organization. Cooperation is the only option. The power of Capitalism compels you! The power of Capitalism compels you! I trust you will do the right thing, gentlemen. So long.

    4. Re:Correction by Jerf · · Score: 3, Funny
      Have you considered writing fiction professionally? Screenplays in particular; Hollywood could use the help.

      ... you were writing fiction... right...?

    5. Re:Correction by BioCS.Nerd · · Score: 3, Informative

      Linky goodness for the interested: OSU Subsurface Biosphere (tons of articles for the interested)

    6. Re:Correction by Fallen_Knight · · Score: 1

      i took histrorical geologly in uni, and the "snowball earth" is just a theory and a poor one at that. Its centers aroudn some event setting off a runaway glaciation untill the entire earth was covered in snow.

      If it DID happen and all life was extingiushed, and the entire world was coverd in snow/ice, the snow would reflect sunlight and lower the tempatures even more, also block sunlight from heating the oceans and lower temps yet again.

      you would never beable to get out of the iceage again or something like that.

      or something like that, there were many holes in the theory that was diccused in class but not my major so i didn't pay much attention:)

      either way its NOT a thory considered even remotly viable by most geologists (acording to my prof)

    7. Re:Correction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Ah, but then Xenu droped the hydrogen bombs into the volcanoes, freeing the thetans. Now trust me, those hydrogen bombs are much more powerful than what we have today, and could easily have melted the snowball earth.

      I know, 'cause Tom Cruise told me so. You don't know the history of geology. Tom Cruise does.

    8. Re:Correction by maxpublic · · Score: 4, Informative

      you would never beable to get out of the iceage again or something like that.

      That conundrum was solved over 30 years ago. As glaciation reaches the equator and covers the oceans (not to mention all other forms of liquid water) precipitation drops to virtually zero - much like the conditions you see at Amundsen-Scott in Antarctica. That means that carbon dioxide, which is usually washed out of the atmosphere via rain, slowly accumulates over time. And I do mean slowly, since the primary form of input is through volcanic eruption.

      In any event, there's eventually enough carbon dioxide in the air that sunlight reflecting from the ice gets trapped between the ice and the carbon dioxide layer in the atmosphere. This heats up the atmosphere, which starts to melt the ice, which means less sunlight is reflected from the ice and more is trapped in the atmosphere, which means things get hotter and more ice melts, etc. etc. Your snowball world begins to melt and things start swinging wildly towards the other end of the spectrum: a Venus-like hothouse.

      What's to stop a runaway greenhouse effect? Well, with the ice melting and free water making a reappearance you once again get clouds. And that means rain. And that means that some of the carbon dioxide gets washed out of the atmosphere. The more ice that melts the more rain there is the more the carbon dioxide layer begins to fail.

      Snowball Earths can't be sustained indefinitely, nor can greenhouse Earths, so long as there's active volcanism.

      Max

      --
      My god carries a hammer. Your god died nailed to a tree. Any questions?
    9. Re:Correction by neurocutie · · Score: 1
      Well the microbes might not, but my Ice-Nine will!
      Oh sure, all of Slashdot is one big Grandfalloon... as is the human race...
    10. Re:Correction by The+Fun+Guy · · Score: 3, Funny

      Ice-Nine

      Good lord, a literary reference on /.? Without being worked into a goatse, "in Soviet Russia" or "4. Profit!" gag?

      I salute you, sir/madam!

      --
      The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them. - Mark Twain
    11. Re:Correction by istaz · · Score: 1

      "But if it ever happens, all life on Earth would likely be destroyed" ... and the cycle is repeated.

      --
      ...don't have one yet...
    12. Re:Correction by simcop2387 · · Score: 1

      i figured he was refering to this
      http://www.nuklearpower.com/daily.php?date=041028

      who would think that he would refer to something other than one of the better web comics out there.

    13. Re:Correction by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Life started once, I guess it could start again.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    14. Re:Correction by uncadonna · · Score: 1
      Your prof is worng to say that nobody takes it seriously. We had a couple of lectures at the Univeristy of Chicago Geophysics department on this in the past year. The theory is beyond viable. It currently appears to be winning from what I have seen of late (though it's a bit peripheral to my own expertise.)

      The question of how the earth escaped its snowball state, is indeed a good one. The dominant theory is that it was a CO2 buildup from volcanos that was unbalanced by the usual process of rock weathering. Unfortunately, most simulations show that as not quite enough. On the multimillion year time scale though you have enough time for an asteroid hit. One of our profs (not the guy giving the talk) suggested that an asteroid hit in the equatorial region after the CO2 built up, exposing open water. (Geothermal heat along with excellent insulation would have kept the abyss liquid.) This would allow enough of an albedo decrease that along with the CO2 buildup you might trigger the melting. I confess I had the same thought. I'm not sure if anyone has looked into this possibility.

      Another good question is how life survived the snowball without having to start entirely over from scratch.

      Everyone agrees that (presuming it occurred; I am assured that the geological evidence is compelling) it was a narrow escape.

      There is an excellent popuar book on the subject, called "Snowball Earth", by Gabrielle Walker.

      --
      mt
    15. Re:Correction by myowntrueself · · Score: 2, Funny

      "Yes, See SLIMES (subsurface lithoautrophic microbial ecosystems) that exist deep in the earth"

      ooh! ooh! I feel a pedant moment coming on!

      It says "Life *on* Earth" not "Life *in* Earth"

      --
      In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
    16. Re:Correction by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      Theoritcaly you should also get an increase in tectonic activity due to the alteration of the distribution of the load on the surface crust. As a substantial portion of the load from the oceanic basins would be transferred to the continental masses.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    17. Re:Correction by Sj0 · · Score: 1

      Uncanny! A person saluting another on slashdot for a literary reference? Surely we have found examples of the overmann on this day!

      --
      It's been a long time.
    18. Re:Correction by maxpublic · · Score: 1

      There would be no greenhouse effect at all if the carbon dioxide froze.

      Earth has never been cold enough for carbon dioxide to freeze. We're too close to the sun. To say "if Earth had been a bit further from the sun" is about as sensible as saying "if the moon were made of green cheese". It doesn't matter because Earth ISN'T further from the sun. The "if" here isn't worth a damn any which way you look at it.

      Max

      --
      My god carries a hammer. Your god died nailed to a tree. Any questions?
    19. Re:Correction by The+Fun+Guy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      We're deeply offtopic here, but if you take a look at the title of that day's webcomic, it reads "Episode 476: Red Mage in the Cradle", obviously a reference to the book "Cat's Cradle" by Kurt Vonnegut. This novel, written in 1963, is where Ice-9 is orignally introduced as a theoretical form of water which solidifies at room temperature, and is thermodynamically preferred over normal ice. Since contact with it would cause all water everywhere to solidify instantly, Ice-9 has the potential to freeze the world solid, therby killing just about everything on Earth in the blink of an eye.

      The book revolves around the pursuit of a small vial which may or may not contain a small piece of this incredibly powerful, incredibly dangerous substance, created by a very clever rogue scientist who didn't bother to consider the consequences of his actions. Written at the height of the Cold War, Ice-9, of course, is a stand-in for nuclear weapons... a technology which everyone wants to have, everyone wants the other side to *not* have, but one which, from a tactical standpoint, has no pratical application, since it can't be used without terrible consequences for all sides.

      --
      The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them. - Mark Twain
    20. Re:Correction by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      what with inflation and cost-of-living increases in the past few decades you might want to consider asking for One Trillion Dollars, which also would lend you credibility as a tier-one purveyour of world-class evil.

    21. Re:Correction by CFTM · · Score: 1

      "My mom took me to see Mel Gibson's movie The Passion and Mel Gibson says that you are snakes and you are liars. And if the Road Warrior says it, it must be true."

      Call me crazy but I think Cartman and Cruise have more than just the C in their last name in common.
      Here's an interesting psychological profile of Mr Cartman. It's a conspiracy folks, Tom Cruise really wants to be Eric Cartman!

    22. Re:Correction by CFTM · · Score: 1

      IANAGP and I don't pretend to know squat about Volcanoes, save they can release a hell of a lot of energy; I'm curious to whether having the Yellowstone Volcano blow would produce enough of the green house gases to knock the planet out of snowball state. As I said, I don't know squat about squat just posing hypotheticals because well this is slashdot and if you don't got an opinion here, you don't got an opinion!

    23. Re:Correction by WhiplashII · · Score: 1

      ooh! ooh! I feel a pedant moment coming on!

      Take a laxative, sometimes that helps...

      --
      while (sig==sig) sig=!sig;
    24. Re:Correction by uncadonna · · Score: 1
      No, a single eruption, even a gigantic one, is no big deal as far as the total CO2 in the atmosphere/ocean system is concerned. Human activity is already releasing many times more than a large eruption per year.

      However, it would take a LOT of CO2 to break out of the snowball state. It looks like the snowball lasted some tens of millions of years. On that time scale, under normal non-snowball conditions CO2 is removed by the reactions involved in erosion of mountain ranges. In the snowball, all that rock is covered up and you have tens of millions of years for the carbon to build up. Then you get a super-greenhouse to get you out of the state that the broken greenhouse got you into.

      (Note I am using the "geophysicists second person" grammatical form. We tend to refer to the earth as "you" for some bizarre reason.)

      --
      mt
    25. Re:Correction by CFTM · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the info :)

    26. Re:Correction by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 1

      /madam!

      Whoa let's not go crazy here!

    27. Re:Correction by mfrank · · Score: 1

      Not really, there's more to it than the snow and ice reflecting sunlight. It also prevents the rock underneath from weathering/eroding, which will prevent removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (via binding with freshly exposed rock). Volcanoes are still spewing out CO2, and the CO2 level builds up until temperatures rise, even with a low albedo. Eventually, CO2 levels are high enough that all the ice melts, weather goes crazy, erosion starts going gangbusters, and CO2 levels start falling (this is the part that there's geological evidence for).

      The key part of "Snowball Earth" is how the continental masses are distributed. If it's all at or around the equator, growing ice caps are covering ocean, reducing the earth's albedo while not interfering with processes removing CO2 from the atmosphere up until late in the game, when a lot of the surface is covered with ice and the albedo is pretty low. That was the situation with snowball earth. Nowadays, there's plenty of land in polar regions (Canada/Siberia) where growing ice caps will reduce exposed land surface and will lower the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere immediately (well, immediately on geological time scales).

      Most of what I've read about snowball earth was fairly recent (Scientific American). When did you take your class?

    28. Re:Correction by Ex+Machina · · Score: 1

      I hope you die. You have made everyone here stupider!

  3. Terraforming and the beginning of life by loggia · · Score: 3, Interesting

    While this sounds pretty bad, it seems that this was nature's way of "terraforming" our planet. It seems these bacteria might be handy for naturally creating other worlds we can inhabit. After all, we already have organisms that breathe oxygen.

    1. Re:Terraforming and the beginning of life by ornil · · Score: 1

      Remember, it took millions of years for this to work. We can hardly wait that long.

    2. Re:Terraforming and the beginning of life by phoenix.bam! · · Score: 1

      Little impatient are we? Humans have been around a long time and will most likely exist for a long time after. No sense not getting things started for the next technological advancement of humanity. And you know what, if we're exterminated before then, it won't matter anyway.

    3. Re:Terraforming and the beginning of life by Thing+1 · · Score: 1
      Could it be done? Yes. Will it? Undoubtedly, no.

      Mars will not exist in 50-60 years. We will take it apart. Someone else posted this more eloquently, but the gist of it is, once we have nanotech, how you gonna stop me?

      --
      I feel fantastic, and I'm still alive.
    4. Re:Terraforming and the beginning of life by -brazil- · · Score: 1

      Humans have NOT been around for "millions of years", nor are we likely to be around for such an amount of time - at least not in a form we today would recognize as human.

      --

      The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.
      --Henry Kissinger

    5. Re:Terraforming and the beginning of life by Thing+1 · · Score: 1
      Thank you for attempting to see inside my skull. However, you failed. Hint: it's not TV. Try books like Engines of Creation, Unbounding the Future, Nano, Ringworld, and sites like slashdot.org, nanodot.org, technocrat.net, ...

      Why am I responding to an AC, anyway?

      --
      I feel fantastic, and I'm still alive.
  4. War of the Worlds by oskard · · Score: 1

    But if it ever happens, all life on Earth would likely be destroyed.

    But according to Orson Welles, its also the best defense we could ask for!

    --
    Sigs are for Terrorists.
    1. Re:War of the Worlds by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      Er, um, H.G. moreso.

    2. Re:War of the Worlds by eobanb · · Score: 3, Informative

      UGH. *scratches another mark on the wall to keep track of how many times people have confused Orson Welles with H. G. Wells*

      Kids, Orson Welles did not write War of the Worlds. H. G. Wells did, in 1898. Orson Welles just made a dumb little radio adaption of it.

      --

      Take off every sig. For great justice.

    3. Re:War of the Worlds by Have+Blue · · Score: 1

      "Dumb"? It was done very, very well (arguably TOO well).

    4. Re:War of the Worlds by TheUz · · Score: 1

      Have you listened to the Mecury Theatre broadcast of the show? It's pretty cool, I think. Not dumb at all.

      --
      ^..^
    5. Re:War of the Worlds by TheLetterPsy · · Score: 1

      Ah yes, but what did George Orwell do?

    6. Re:War of the Worlds by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Yeah, right. I suppose next you'll be trying to convince us that Mel Gibson didn't write Hamlet.

    7. Re:War of the Worlds by zaxus · · Score: 1

      Ah yes, but what did George Orwell do?

      1984.

      --
      /. zen: Imagine a Beowulf cluster of Beowulf clusters...
    8. Re:War of the Worlds by Guysmiley777 · · Score: 1

      Predicted the current American government? (he was about 16 years early though)

      --
      Coding with assembly is like playing with Legos. Coding an application in assembly is like building a car with Legos.
    9. Re:War of the Worlds by slartibart · · Score: 1
      Hey at least they both did "War of the Worlds" in addition to having the same last name, so you can see why it's easy to confuse them. So it's not as bad as Homer Simpson confusing Cesar Chavez with Caesar Romero.

      Maybe you should lower your standards. These days, I'm impressed when people are able to tell the difference between "its" and "it's".

  5. The Easiest Way for Something to Actually Happen.. by eno2001 · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...is to just rename the planet. If we start calling Earth by a new name, say "Hoth" for example, the Earth will become an ice planet. Just get a significant number of the inhabitants of the planet to believe anything and it will come to pass. The boiling point of water for instance could easily be lowered or raised if we all, as a collective, just believed it to be possible for water to boil at, say... 90 degrees F. It's simple really. Just basic quantum fizziks with a little new ageyness thrown in for good measure. We now return you to your regularly scheduled propaganda.

    --
    -"...bad old ideas look confusingly fresh when they are packaged as technology" - Jaron Lanier (Digital Maoism on Edge.o
  6. Who Ate the Ocean? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    I gotta get out more... I read the headline as when Microsoft Ate the Ocean.

    1. Re:Who Ate the Ocean? by fossa · · Score: 4, Funny

      I read once read an eastern (China?) story about a couple brothers with super powers. One of the brothers could swallow the sea. A prince or someone important made him swallow the sea, then went into the dry sea bed to collect treasures. The brother began to get tired, and motioned the prince to return. The prince ignored him and was eventually drowned when the brother had to spit the sea back out... The brothers were then beheaded or something for killing the prince (I think they get away in the end, can't really remember). Not sure why I wanted to share that.

    2. Re:Who Ate the Ocean? by SgtPepperKSU · · Score: 3, Informative

      I believe you are looking for "The Five Chinese Brothers" by Claire Huchet Bishop. This was one of my favorite stories as a small child. And by the way, it was just a little boy that he was helping to fish - not a prince - that was drowned. The other brothers then trade places when they try and execute the first brother (one couldn't be beheaded, one couldn't be drown, and one couldn't be burned). At least this is how I remember it, I could be wrong on some of the brothers. Anyway, I thought I'd reply even though this thread twig is off-topic. I know I love rediscovering old favorites and thought I would share in case others are the same way.

    3. Re:Who Ate the Ocean? by Scarletdown · · Score: 1

      This was one of my favorite stories back in gradeschool (along with the Story of Ping). If I remember right, the special abilities of each of the five brothers were as follows:

      The first one could swallow the sea.
      The second one could stretch his legs indefinitely. (This was why he couldn't be drowned.)
      The third one could not be suffocated.
      The fourth one essentially had an iron neck.
      The fifth one could not be burned.

      --
      This space unintentionally left blank.
  7. Science is hard by ndansmith · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Determing the cause of a global freeze which we think happened 2.3 billion years ago has got to be pretty tough. Their actual article is not linked, so does anyone have a link or an idea about how they determined this?

    1. Re:Science is hard by superyanthrax · · Score: 2, Informative

      Here is a link to their paper:

      http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0504878102v1.pdf

    2. Re:Science is hard by Quadraginta · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I don't have a subscription to PNAS, so I could only read the abstract, but for what it's worth I think it goes like this:

      All the evidence seems to be geochemical, e.g. they look at the chemical composition of rocks of a certain age and, knowing the chemical reactions that produce that composition, infer the chemical composition and temperature of the atmosphere at the time. This is not unlike the way the Mars Rovers are using the chemical composition of rocks on Mars to acquire evidence for or against the prior existence of liquid water.

      They take for granted that everyone agrees there was a massive glaciation (the "snowball") at a certain time long in the past, and that the early atmosphere was reducing (high in methane, ammonia and water, low in oxygen and CO2), but underwent at another certain time, long in the past, and because of the evolution of photosynthetic organisms (the cyanobacteria), a fairly rapid change to an oxidizing system (high in free oxygen and CO2, low in methane and ammonia).

      What they suggest is that the two events are not unconnected. By discarding certain evidence and adducing other, they argue the two events may be close in time. Hence there might be some connection.

      The connection they suggest revolves around the facts that methane is a known powerful greenhouse gas, and the Sun was cooler in those days than it is now. I speculate they suggest the early Earth was unglaciated because large amounts of methane gave a strong greenhouse effect that compensated for the lower solar illumination.

      But then the evil cyanobacteria (cue Imperial March music) evolved and started producing free oxygen like crazy, which reacted with the methane to produce water and CO2. Away goes the methane, away goes the greenhouse effect (since CO2 is less effective as a greenhouse gas than methane), and the Earth plunges into the deepfreeze.

      Later, the Sun heats up a bit, so less greenhouse effect will keep the temps up, and also aerobic organisms start exhaling CO2 and farting a bit of methane, and all is once again serene.

      The "close call" is because if the Earth were further from the Sun, like near the orbit of Mars, then there wouldn't be any replacement CO2 greenhouse effect, because the CO2 would just freeze out as dry ice.

    3. Re:Science is hard by NeuroManson · · Score: 1

      If I recall correctly, weren't they linked to manganese nodules in shallow oceans?

      --
      Just because you can mod me down, doesn't mean you're right. Shoes for industry!
  8. Who will do the destroying? by unorthod0x · · Score: 5, Funny

    But if it ever happens, all life on Earth would likely be destroyed.

    There's one unwavering faith I have in the human race: The ability to destroy things. That evil algae doesn't stand a chance!

    1. Re:Who will do the destroying? by jd · · Score: 1

      What do you think humans evolved from, eh?

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    2. Re:Who will do the destroying? by Doug97 · · Score: 1

      We're not nearly as good at that sort of thing as we all like to think. How are we doing so far in our efforts to destroy certain diseases? Hmm, it's taking a while to exterminate the HIV virus, isn't it? Or what about the tuberculosis bacterium, we've been trying to get rid of that organism for over a hundred years. Or pests, like the mosquito, or rat? Nah, small fast-breeding creatures own us every time.

  9. life is already doomed on earth, go figure.

    --
    lameness filter thwarted.
  10. Breaking the Mold by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1, Insightful

    When are we going to realize that humans infest this planet like mold infests cheese? Sure, we make the milk into a nice, homey swiss. But after a while, even cheese rots, taken over by the critters more comfortable than are we in our own poisonous byproducts. We're not keeping the place tidy enough already, and the plants that will survive us are probably slavering at the chance to feed on our rotting corpses. What lovely mulch we'll make.

    --

    --
    make install -not war

    1. Re:Breaking the Mold by NanoGator · · Score: 1

      "We're not keeping the place tidy enough already, and the plants that will survive us are probably slavering at the chance to feed on our rotting corpses. What lovely mulch we'll make."

      Mmmm hmmm. So... are the plants going to spontaneously turn carniverous or something?

      --
      "Derp de derp."
    2. Re:Breaking the Mold by rm999 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      As I understand it, you are saying we will destroy ourselves by changing the ecosystem and allowing previously insignificant but dangerous organisms to become significant and kill us off (normally I would have glossed over your poetic post, but it was modded as insightful so I read it more carefully).

      I don't really get how that will happen. Yes, I agree that we treat this planet pretty badly, but I think the planet and humans are tough enough to take it.

      You may have a point, though. Many scientists postulate that humans are currently creating a mass extinction, similar to what killed off the dinosaurs (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction_e vent). IMO this is probably true, but not as bad as it sounds. Many of the species that are dying off are not important to the big scheme of things, and the complicated interweb of life will compensate. The mass extinction is sad, but probably won't be the end of humans.

    3. Re:Breaking the Mold by achurch · · Score: 1

      When are we going to realize that humans infest this planet like mold infests cheese?

      The difference, of course, is that mold isn't smart enough to know when it has to change its actions.

    4. Re:Breaking the Mold by aussie_a · · Score: 1, Troll

      The difference, of course, is that mold isn't smart enough to know when it has to change its actions.

      Neither are the SUV-lovers of America.

    5. Re:Breaking the Mold by GeckoX · · Score: 1

      ...And therein lies the kicker.

      Once we know for sure...it'll be too late.

      So best to ignore the _possible_ problem and remain boldly optimistic about our chances.

      --
      No Comment.
    6. Re:Breaking the Mold by Dadoo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The difference, of course, is that mold isn't smart enough to know when it has to change its actions.

      Given what I've seen so far, neither are humans, apparently.

      --
      Sit, Ubuntu, sit. Good dog.
    7. Re:Breaking the Mold by jarich · · Score: 1
      Once we know for sure...it'll be too late.

      That's your argument??

      Should we spend our lives look over our collective shoulders or should we balance our need (and desire) for technically advanced Stuff (like space shuttles, cheap nuclear power and really cheap CPUs) with our ability to deal with the consequences?

    8. Re:Breaking the Mold by mikael · · Score: 1

      I don't really get how that will happen. Yes, I agree that we treat this planet pretty badly, but I think the planet and humans are tough enough to take it.

      Have you heard about the antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria being found in hospitals?

      Combine that with the constantly increasing population densities in our cities, and the odds of some kind of pandemic increase.

      You just have to look at any intensive farming methods, to see that the occurrence of parasites increases whenever organisms are placed in population densities that don't occur naturally.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    9. Re:Breaking the Mold by david614 · · Score: 1

      I guess it is not too soon to ask who "cut the cheese" then? : )

      --
      ELITISM: It's always lonely at the top. Uninvited company is rarely welcome.
    10. Re:Breaking the Mold by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      They're already slavering, in sap, over the prospects of feeding on your corpse rotting in the ground when you go. It's just so slow that you don't notice it, until you slow down to their speed, interred amongst their roots.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    11. Re:Breaking the Mold by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      We'll just have to "wait" and see, it seems. It's a pretty foolish risk, but we're already pretty committed. Time, and our further actions, will tell whether we've already reached the tipping point. Too bad there's no bonus points, or even an audience, for "famous last words" like "we're tough enough to take it".

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    12. Re:Breaking the Mold by Fallen_Knight · · Score: 1

      ltos of speices no longer exist, i seem to remember a number like 99% of all speices to ever exist are now extinct

    13. Re:Breaking the Mold by grogdamighty · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure how you can claim that city population densities are unnatural. The progression of civilization over the past few thousand years has meant that no "natural" lifestyle has lasted more than a couple hundred years before being replaced (tribes to villages to towns to cities and beyond). Yes, higher population densities imply higher impacts from disease (duh?), but that certainly doesn't mean that we can't overcome it. Remember, New York and other major cities were beds of disease around the start of the 20th century - and now life goes on normally with much larger populations due to increased hygiene and medical care.

      --
      My other sig is funny.
    14. Re:Breaking the Mold by KtHM · · Score: 1

      Exactly. Who cares? I'll be dead before it's a big problem.

    15. Re:Breaking the Mold by not-quite-rite · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry, but what is a natural density for humans?

      Given our brains occur naturally, and hence thought has arisen naturally, and our ability to modify our environment has naturally given us an advantage, how is our population densities un-natural?

      All this "humans are bad" talk gives me the shits. If hippies think humans are bad, then they should euthanise themselves and quit annoying the rest of us.

      Plenty of rants to go, but I'm not going to use them all up at once.....

    16. Re:Breaking the Mold by kurzweilfreak · · Score: 1

      Almost sounds like Christianity, until you hit that last sentence.

      --

      kurzweil_freak

      5th Kyu Genbukan Ninpo/KJJR student

      Be the darkness that allows the light to shine.

    17. Re:Breaking the Mold by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      The Bat will be surprised to see my little old grey stars.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    18. Re:Breaking the Mold by Phragmen-Lindelof · · Score: 1

      "is that mold isn't smart enough to know when it has to change its actions."
      Since GWB is about as smart as a mold, this explains his opinions and policies. Thanks!

    19. Re:Breaking the Mold by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      Most of my post was hatred of the game. That hateful player, fool enough to play that game, just got caught in the crossfire. That's my way of playing. If they don't like the game, they can throw in to towel.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    20. Re:Breaking the Mold by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      Yo knock yourself a pro slick, gray matter live performas down now take TCB'in man. Chump don' want no help, chump don't GET da' help! Jive ass dude don't got no brains anyhow!

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    21. Re:Breaking the Mold by sirsnork · · Score: 1

      The space shuttles are technically advanced?

      Now that is a scary thought

      --

      Normal people worry me!
    22. Re:Breaking the Mold by B3ryllium · · Score: 1

      I'd like to see YOU design, build, and fly an equivalent platform.

      Disclaimer: Current music: John Williams - The Imperial March

    23. Re:Breaking the Mold by B3ryllium · · Score: 1

      Yeah, they want to have it both ways, don't they? Either we're a part of nature - and, therefore, anything and everything we do is "natural", or we're not a part of nature, and therefore we must be the enemy of nature.

      Can't be both. Crazy hippies.

    24. Re:Breaking the Mold by TiggertheMad · · Score: 1

      The mass extinction is sad, but probably won't be the end of humans.

      Fuck 'em if they can't take a global warming! No loss, most of them taste like chicken anyway...

      --

      HA! I just wasted some of your bandwidth with a frivolous sig!
    25. Re:Breaking the Mold by achurch · · Score: 1

      I prefer to think that those of us who do know better are also smart enough to figure out how to get past whatever disaster the rest of humanity uses to wipe itself out.

    26. Re:Breaking the Mold by Jim_Callahan · · Score: 1

      Yeah, i think that the black death pretty much showed us that plagues can't really do much to stop humanity. Maybe knock a particula civillization back in its quest to dominate most of the world for a few centures. Actualy wipe us out? Not likely.

      --
      ...it's really a sad day for America when we require a goddamn ACT OF CONGRESS to make our DVD players work properly. ~
    27. Re:Breaking the Mold by GeckoX · · Score: 1

      I'd suggest a conscious balance as opposed to an ignorant drive ahead. Is it really that hard to pay attention to the consequences of our actions while still moving forward?

      --
      No Comment.
    28. Re:Breaking the Mold by mikael · · Score: 1

      I really meant the unnaturally high densities of crowding entire extended families into single rooms. As happened in Edinburgh during the 1600's:


      The 1603 Union with England led to the Scottish King leaving Edinburgh and the city ceasing to be the location of the court. However, the Scottish Parliament continued to be based here, in Parliament House - now the centre of the Scottish legal system: housing the Court of Session, the Court of Criminal Appeal, and the Advocates Library (building began in the 1630's). But Edinburgh continued to Grow. It was overcrowded, noisy and filthy. By the 1700's people complained that they could smell the stench from Dalkieth, 8 miles away. It is from around this time when the name "Auld Reekie" began to be used to describe the city. This crammed, rat infested world where people lived in squalor and where hygiene was practically non existent, was prone to epidemics. Unsurprisingly the 1644-1646 plague outbreak hit Edinburgh hard, even forcing the parliament to move temporarily to Stirling . One Street, Mary King's Close below the City Chambers, was particularly badly effected, prompting the authorities to seal it off in 1645, locking both sick and healthy in together to await their deaths. For an insight into Edinburgh's 17th century living conditions, guided tours of this perfectly preserved close, supposedly haunted by the victims of the plague, have been proving popular ever since its recent reopening.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    29. Re:Breaking the Mold by CFTM · · Score: 1

      Stop throwing out psuedo-scientific terms to validate your case; besides who fucking cares if humans go the way of the Do-Do? I don't want to see it happen but in the big picture we're pretty irrelevant. Organisms will probably be living on this planet until the day that our Sun goes supernova. The chances of them being related to human beings? Pretty slim, but I'm ok with that; enjoy it while we can but life is dynamic and sometimes that means you no longer get a piece of the pie.

    30. Re:Breaking the Mold by halltk1983 · · Score: 1

      The bonus is, that if it gets warm enough, we won't even have to wste time cooking them!
      Fried Chicken!

      --
      Watch for Penguins, they eat Apples and throw rocks at Windows.
    31. Re:Breaking the Mold by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      That is why I don't care one iota what you think. Too bad we have to drag you, and your descendents, along with us as the rest of us act responsibly to survive. Hopefully, your children won't be as weird as you. Even more likely, your opposite sex will recognize that you're not fit to reproduce.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

  11. Oy Vey by $RANDOMLUSER · · Score: 1
    This is sooooooo plausible.

    I could write a short story (plot stolen from Heinlein) about "The Bio-engineered Energy Source That Got Away And Ate The Planet" in a heartbeat.

    Shit, there's about 17 research projects to do this funded ritght now:
    1) Sunlight + Microbes == Hydrogen
    2) ???
    3) Profit!!!

    --
    No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism. - Winston Churchill
    1. Re:Oy Vey by Vengie · · Score: 1

      I know I read that story when I was little -- it had the little aside about the number of nuclear subs that all could have nuked Queensland in time -- and tracking the "growing splotches" -- what was the name? It is escaping me right now and I'd love to re-read it.

      --
      When in doubt, parenthesize. At the very least it will let some poor schmuck bounce on the % key in vi. (Larry Wall)
    2. Re:Oy Vey by isny · · Score: 1

      I think that is...

      1) Sunlight + Microbes == Hydrogen
      2) Form religion based on #1
      3) Profit!!!

    3. Re:Oy Vey by fistfullast33l · · Score: 1

      Actually my thought on this article was:

      1) Read /. for research ideas.
      2) Publish paper based on /. article.
      3) ???
      4) Profit!!!

  12. I smell a Blockbuster... by FrankieBoy · · Score: 4, Funny

    Bill Paxton as the divorced Oceanographer who's trying to balance being a father to his 18 year-old son with his job.

    Susan Sarandon as the head of the Governments Task Force on the Environment. She's tough and passionate but is there anything she can do?

    Alec Baldwin as the President whos up for re-election. Can he fend off the powerful lobbyists yet still keep his office?

    Jennifer Lopez is the scientist with a solution, but no one will listen due to her reputation as being an alarmist.

    Wil Wheaton with a cameo as The Beaver.

    Steven Spielberg is rumored to be interested.

    1. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by hahiss · · Score: 1

      That really would be the Worst. Iceage. Ever.

      (Best said with the Comicbook Guy's sarcastic tone.)

      --
      "Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under." - H.L. Mencken
    2. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by Headw1nd · · Score: 1

      Who will play the algae?

    3. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by /dev/trash · · Score: 1

      That dude from General Protection Fault. Fred.

      +++
      http://www.drudgereport.com for the truth.

    4. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by bsharitt · · Score: 1

      I don't know, have you seen "The Day After Tommorow", it was rather horrible.

    5. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by Alsee · · Score: 1

      Casting swictch!

      Jennifer Lopez as the President whos up for re-election. Can she fend off the powerful lobbyists yet still keep her office?

      Wil Wheaton as the head of the Governments Task Force on the Environment. He's tough and passionate but is there anything she can do?

      Susan Sarandon is the scientist with a solution, but no one will listen due to her reputation as being an alarmist.

      Steven Spielberg as the divorced Oceanographer who's trying to balance being a father to his 18 year-old son with his job.

      Bill Paxton directing.

      Alec Baldwin as The Beaver.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
    6. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by Alsee · · Score: 1

      Ooops sorry Wil, I missed that edit on the second 'she'.
      I guess we could just write it into the script as a freak enviornmental effect.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
    7. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by OldManAndTheC++ · · Score: 4, Funny
      Better yet ...

      Bruce Willis and his crack team of swimming pool cleaners are used to dealing with filthy algae infestations, but can they clean THE WHOLE PLANET?!?

      don't miss ... Algaegeddon!

      --
      Soylent Green is peoplicious!
    8. Re:I smell a Blockbuster... by mboverload · · Score: 1

      That is seriously the most fucking funny thing I have ever read!

      MOD PARENT UP.

  13. I read that story... by phorest · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Definitely must be Vonnegut's Cat's Cradle!

    --
    God: When you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.
    1. Re:I read that story... by delibes · · Score: 3, Informative
      Yes, a good bit of sci-fi really. But without giving too much away, it was "Ice 9" and not some algae/bacteria that caused the trouble. On another tangent to the tangent, Ice 9 is a great Joe Satriani track.

      Oh wow! I just checked the Wikipedia article - "The book is currently being adapted into script form by Richard Kelly, the writer and director of Donnie Darko.". Yay!

      --
      This is not a sig
    2. Re:I read that story... by phorest · · Score: 1

      Ice 9 is (was) also Jerry Garcia's (grateful now that he's dead) publishing company name.

      --
      God: When you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.
  14. Isn't this roughly one of the plot twists... by gardyloo · · Score: 1

    ....in Stephenson's Zodiac?

    1. Re:Isn't this roughly one of the plot twists... by gardyloo · · Score: 1

      No, no it's not. Whoops.
          I think it's time for me to end this posting in a sudden and quite unsatisf --

  15. On a large scale... by MavEtJu · · Score: 1

    But if it ever happens, all life on Earth would likely be destroyed.

    In the past 30 odd years that I'm running around on this globe, this planet has been threatened so often with destruction that I'm not remotely worried about it anymore. On the scale of the universe we're nothing, both in size and in age.

    That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to keep the planet in the best possible shape of course!

    --
    bash$ :(){ :|:&};:
    1. Re:On a large scale... by maxpublic · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In the past 30 odd years that I'm running around on this globe, this planet has been threatened so often with destruction that I'm not remotely worried about it anymore.

      The alarmists aren't happy unless they're running around screaming "the sky is falling!". They're only really satisfied if they can convince you to do the same. Of course, if you don't they can always take the consolation prize of claiming that you're morally bankrupt for not panicking in the manner in which they approve.

      Thing is, it's so bloody common for little groups here and there to make a fuss about the sky falling that the rest of us - the calm, the sane, the rational, and the just plain tired-of-this-shit-and-don't-want-to-hear-it-anymo re folks - really can't get excited about it. And don't want to get excited about it, frankly. If we got up in arms about this crap half as often as all these chicken littles wanted us to be each and every one of us would've dropped from stress-induced heart failure years ago.

      Max

      --
      My god carries a hammer. Your god died nailed to a tree. Any questions?
    2. Re:On a large scale... by Clockwork+Apple · · Score: 1

      Even a broken clock is right twice a day. ;)

      C.

      --
      "Doctor, it's not the voices I hear in MY head, but the voices I hear in YOUR head that really frighten me."
    3. Re:On a large scale... by Moraelin · · Score: 1

      "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. ;)" ... but you still wouldn't use it for timekeeping. Much less plan your life around it.

      --
      A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    4. Re:On a large scale... by Jim_Callahan · · Score: 1

      Depends. My broken clocks are alarm clocks, and got thrown out a window for waking me up... is "hour hand puncturing numeral 3, minute hand at right angle to clock face" an actual time now?

      --
      ...it's really a sad day for America when we require a goddamn ACT OF CONGRESS to make our DVD players work properly. ~
    5. Re:On a large scale... by Clockwork+Apple · · Score: 1

      Im just saying, dont dismiss everything just because you feel the source is annoying. Which is what the gp seems to be suggesting. He seems to be looking at the clock, that he feels is broken, to see what time it ISN'T.

      When/If the awful end comes, dont you think that if anyone will have seen it coming, it will be "an alarmist"?

      Sure would be a bummer to have bugged folks for years about shit that never happened and then miss the one big thing that does.

      C.

      --
      "Doctor, it's not the voices I hear in MY head, but the voices I hear in YOUR head that really frighten me."
    6. Re:On a large scale... by CFTM · · Score: 1

      Don't get me wrong I'm all in favor of keeping the planet healthy and shit but the fact is the planet isn't going anywhere and there is probably going to be life here for quite sometime to come, regardless of what said environmentalists might say. It is fair to ask how involved we humans will be in that life, and we may not be all that involved if some bad shit happens but it's plain silly and extremely arrogant to level alarmist claims about the end of the world [which you are not doing, I just like my soap box dammit!].

    7. Re:On a large scale... by The+Fun+Guy · · Score: 1

      The alarmists aren't happy unless they're running around screaming "the sky is falling!"

      Hint: grant money allocation is correlated with the significance of the problem. Putting out some alarmist press for an obscure question in paleogeology is like wearing a WonderBra and a nose ring to the mall... it's just a way to get some attention.

      --
      The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them. - Mark Twain
    8. Re:On a large scale... by maraist · · Score: 1

      The alarmists aren't happy unless they're running around screaming "the sky is falling!".

      In positional arguing, one side needs to over-exaggerate their position such that the "compromise" is closer to their intended goal.

      Forget global warming, and other death-to-earth claims. (Nature will have the final word here.) What about industrial pollution of drinking water and the rise in asma and lung disease in cities due to direct human-affecting pollution or freon leakage..

      There are so many more direct problems associated with cost-effective pollution. Maybe people care about it, maybe not. But by extending the problem to killing off innocent people that don't live/work in urban areas, it becomes a moral crisis.. The only problem is that these people go too far in their plausibility and their arguments are thereby dismissed.

      --
      -Michael
    9. Re:On a large scale... by Listen+Up · · Score: 1

      That is not true whatsoever. My wife is currently working under a graduate research grant in Biology which was granted to her because of the overall betterment of scientific undestanding which her work will give. There is no significant problem that her work is aiming to solve. When her work is finished, she will continue in her studies under another research grant under the same premise.
       
      There are only a few people who feel that their information needs to be presented to the masses in an alarmist fashion. And then there are people like you who make broadly ignorant statements about all scientists and research grants because of those few alarmist type people.

    10. Re:On a large scale... by Shotgun · · Score: 1

      My God died, wrested control of the keys to Hell, and rose again to become more powerful than you could ever imagine. Any questions?

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
  16. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by delibes · · Score: 4, Insightful
    WTF? "another -1% of O2 and things would not ignite in the free atmosphere".

    Did you study arts at college? Whether something burns depends on the heat you expose it to, the type of material itself, and also (yes) the availability of oxidiser (O2 in the air). Methane gas, coal, and all your other favourite fossil fuels will burn in 19%-O2 air just fine. They might produce marginally more carbon monoxide, but they wouldn't just stop.

    If combustion was that sensitive, I think most candles wouldn't burn because they'd use up the oxygen around them to quickly. And blowing gently on a flame would always put it out rather than increase it, because there's less O2 (about 16%?) and more CO2 in your exhaled breath.

    --
    This is not a sig
  17. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by cnettel · · Score: 1
    Do you have any source for this? Remember, it's the partial pressure of oxygen, not the percentage of the total air, that is the most important factor here. This would mean that you couldn't ignite in the free atmosphere a few hundred meters up in the atmosphere (or on a hill or mountain of that height, relative to the sea level). You would also not have been able to smoke within an aircraft, even during the times when that was allowed. (Hey, even the relative humidity would be enough to knock oxygen your claimed single percent off, and if you don't get outright fog or mist, things ignite and burn quite well...)

    This is not to say that it wouldn't have consequences. The likelihood of natural fires after lightning strikes and other events would naturally change if the oxygen level changed, but so would anything that changed the frequency of thunderstorms themself or any other climate factor, or the type of vegetation.

    The oxygen level has changed significantly enough during the history of landliving vertebrae to be reason not to worry. And as humans cope with several thousand meters with some performance degradation, but no total collapse, we wouldn't even have to worry for our own direct survival.

  18. Re:it couldn't happen again... by Headw1nd · · Score: 1
    Has it occurred to anyone that we might be able to use this as a source of hydrogen for a hydrogen economy??? It's indirectly solar power, guys.

    Hmmm, if only we knew where to find these so-called "blue-green algae"

  19. Re:The Easiest Way for Something to Actually Happe by eis271828 · · Score: 2, Funny

    I believe! I believe! Aw crap! my blood's boiling!

  20. Re:it couldn't happen again... by RedWizzard · · Score: 1
    Has it occurred to anyone that we might be able to use this as a source of hydrogen for a hydrogen economy???
    What did you think the first line of the summary was refering to? "When /. discussed a story about microbes that could break down water as a hydrogen source, ..."
  21. I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by scotty777 · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Did this happen to Mars?

    The article points out that if Earth was a bit farther away from the Sun, then the Carbon Dioxide would have frozen out of the atmosphere, thus preventing that particular greenhouse gas from bringing on a subsequent warming period. Mars has almost exactly that situation. One or the other of the poles is always cold enough to freeze Carbon Dioxide out of its atmosphere. Too little greenhouse gas ==>>planet stays too cold==>> water permenantly locked up as ice.

    With the discoveries of the last couple of years we know Mars has lots of water and Carbon Dioxide, and Methane to boot! AND we know that temperatures permitted liquid surface water in the distant past.

    Is this reasonable? Could cyanobacteria have doomed Mars? anyone?

    1. Re:I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by Detritus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think that it is more likely that Mars was doomed by its relatively small mass. Its escape velocity is only 5 km/s, and it doesn't have a strong magnetic field to protect it from the solar wind. This means that the atmosphere will rapidly leak into space.

      --
      Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
    2. Re:I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by spleentor · · Score: 1

      you're slightly correct. i've read research that says because of mar's smaller mass its core cooled over time, slowing and eventually stopping its internal dynamo. this of course weakened its magnetic field. allowing solar winds to gradually blow its atmosphere away. interesting thing, mars has areas of different magnetic field strength (because the rocks in those areas have more iron in them) which creates pockets that have a denser atmosphere than the surrounding areas.

    3. Re:I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by Quadraginta · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Now that is one interesting question, worthy of a back of the envelope calculation. Does the lower escape velocity of Mars (5 km/s) versus Earth (11 km/s) really doom Mars to far less atmosphere than the Earth?

      If we integrate the Maxwell-Boltzmann probability distribution of the speed of gas molecules from the escape velocity of a planet to infinity, we get the fraction of gas molecules that at any instant are going faster than the escape velocity. Presumably if this fraction is higher than some limit, a limit determined by the net influx of gas from cosmic sources, e.g. microcomet impacts, then the planet will lose the gas, over geological timespans.

      God knows what that limit is, but we might as well just run the calculation for Earth at a temperature of 300K and fiddle with the limit until we find the Earth losing its H2 and He but keeping H2O, the next heaviest gas, as well as N2, O2 and so forth. Then we can use the same limit with Mars' escape velocity to calculate the maximum surface temperature at which Mars can hold onto the various gases.

      I'll append the code itself as a comment to my own post, but the results I get are these:

      escape velocity = 5.00 km/s
      log10(escape probability) = -50.0
      gas -- max surface temp (K)

      H2 -- 25.8
      He -- 51.1
      H2O -- 230.3
      N2 -- 358.1
      O2 -- 409.0
      CO2 -- 562.5

      The mean surface temperature of Mars is about 200K, so this crude calculation suggests keeping water is iffy, but nitrogen, oxygen and CO2 are probably there to stay.

      On the other hand, the observation is that Mars has kept its water. Now, water is the lightest of the interesting common gases in Earth's atmosphere (N2, O2, H2O and CO2). That fact suggests Mars should have no more trouble holding onto a nitrogen/oxygen atmosphere than the Earth does.

    4. Re:I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by Detritus · · Score: 1

      See here for a atmospheric temperature profile for Mars. It can get close to 350K at high altitudes. You also get a lot of monatomic oxygen at the upper part of the atmosphere.

      --
      Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
    5. Re:I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by RoLi · · Score: 1
      The mean surface temperature of Mars is about 200K

      Don't you think that the mean temperature is pretty irrelevant because it won't stop the planet from losing its atmosphere in areas with it's maximum temperature?

      Mars' maximum temperature is a little less than 300K (maybe 290K) so it will lose not just water but also O2 because it is split up by ultraviolet rays in 2 Oxygen-atmos.

    6. Re:I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      Well...it was a back of the envelope calculation. There are many complicating factors I didn't take into account, from the nonuniformity of the temperature and density with altitude to the variations in solar illumination over the year, the effect of high-altitude photochemistry and so on.

      But the point of a rough calculation is not to get definitive answers but just to get a basic idea of what's going on before you plunge into detailed calculations and complex models. It's a "common sense" check on the hall of mirrors you can get into with complex models and half-million lines of code calcualtions.

      Do I think I can make firm predictions of which gas might have been lost and when? Nope. Do I believe, in general, the result that the lower escape velocity of Mars can't easily account for the difference in atmospheres? Yes.

      Also, do I think the mean temperature is irrelevant? Not irrelevant, no. The nature of thermal equilibrium is such that all the other interesting temperatures on Mars (daily max, yearly max, max as a function of altitude, etc.) are all going to be related to the mean. So the mean is a rough general stand-in for any and all of them.

    7. Re:I wonder... (Mars climate evolution) by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      ...suggest something more like 10^-15 or 10^-20

      Why so? I have no clue what the appropriate probability should be -- I'm not even convinced it has any plausible physical meaning in this context. I just regarded it as an adjustable parameter and ran the calculation for Earth until the escape temperatures for H2 and He were below 300K and that for H2O above.

      Yes, I've heard the argument that the Sun in its T-Tauri stage blew away all the light stuff from the inner planets. I'd be a weensy bit suprised if the 1/9 smaller potential amount of outgassing on Mars completely explains a 1/1000 smaller mass of atmosphere today. And how do we know there's no tectonics on Mars? It's got volcanoes and stuff. And what about the role of ingassing from comet impacts? Mars should get more of these, no?

      Anyway, I'm not trying to express a serious opinion on where the Martian atmosphere went! I just wanted to see if a quick and dirty calculation could shed light on whether escape velocity could easily explain the difference.

  22. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  23. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by TheGavster · · Score: 1

    While your numbers are dodgy, you do have a point. If our cheap hydrogen making bacteria go out of control over the oceans, we really just have to light the resultant cloud of gas on fire. Probably look really bad from space to see flaming oceans, but it beats slime-green, I guess.

    --
    "Because Science" is one step from "Because old book". Try "Because of my experiment testing my falsifiable assertion".
  24. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by aliquis · · Score: 1

    I have nothing useful to say, I just want to thank for some very intresting information :), but I have no mod points today :)

  25. Interesting by youknowmewell · · Score: 1

    Wonder what would happen if we eliminated 'overpopulation' of the human species? Perhaps the lack of oxygen consuming beings would cause an ice age? Would that be a kicker.

    1. Re:Interesting by Detritus · · Score: 1

      What's the total biomass of homo sapiens compared to that of ants and termites? Hint, we would not be missed.

      --
      Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
    2. Re:Interesting by imgumbydammit · · Score: 1

      Actually you're not too far off. The little ice age which wiped out the Greenlanders is thought to have been caused indirectly by the black plague. Many people died, including large numbers of farmers. Much of the land in that had been under cultivation went back to being forest, which pulled more CO2 out of the atmosphere. Europe, at least, became cooler.
      According to the theory, the other two "little ice ages" in the last 2'000 years had the same sort of causes: the fall of the roman empire and a series of plagues in the third to the sixth centuries; and the reduction of the population of the Americas from 50 million to 5 million after the Europeans arrived.
      Source: The Economist, dec 20th 2003.

      --
      That's right: I'm gumby dammit.
    3. Re:Interesting by ikkonoishi · · Score: 1

      Hmm so if we could turn a few deserts into forests we could solve global warming forever.

      All we would have to do is remove a mountain to let the moist wind off the ocean blow across the desert without losing its moisture when it goes over the mountain.

    4. Re:Interesting by EnderWiggin99 · · Score: 1

      Is that all? I suppose just making it invisible is not an option.

      That would truly be a long night's work.

  26. Re:it couldn't happen again... by drerwk · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Evreything is indirectly solar power.
    you forget radio nuclide decay heat...currently estimated to be about 1/2 of the heat in the earth.

  27. Vonnegut anyone? by ConfusedGuy · · Score: 1

    Dr. Hoenikker unavailable for comment.

  28. important reminder by cahiha · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's been known for a long time that the oxygen in earth's atmosphere first arose as the result of microbial action. It's pretty self-evident that that must have gone along with major climatic changes. What appears to be new about this story is that they link a particular glaciation event to this change in the planet's atmosphere.

    The scientific details aside, this story is an important reminder: our global climate is not necessarily stable. Earth could become a frozen snowball again, or it could become like Venus. Furthermore, we don't know what would trigger either transition (it's possible, for example, that short term global warming leads to long-term freezing).

    The best way of preventing that for the time being is to drastically reduce our changes to the planet's atmosphere because we know that, without human intervention, the global climate has at least supported higher life forms for hundreds of millions of years.

    1. Re:important reminder by Chandon+Seldon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No, the best plan is to work to produce self sustaining off planet / underwater / deep-antarctic colonies. That way when the climate changes it'll just be expensive rather than fatal to the species.

      --
      -- The act of censorship is always worse than whatever is being censored. Always.
    2. Re:important reminder by cahiha · · Score: 1

      Continued human activity isnt a good cause, tho; it doesnt require totalitarian style central control of, well, pretty much everything. Odd how the solution to "global cooling" "global warming", "nuclear winter", etc etc is always an unelected, unaccountable ruling clique of "enlightened ones", isnt it.

      Take of your tinfoil hat.

      The solution to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions is simple economics: stop subsidizing inefficient technologies, and impose taxes that correspond to the true cost of an activity. Then, let the market work it out.

    3. Re:important reminder by mOdQuArK! · · Score: 1
      stop subsidizing inefficient technologies, and impose taxes that correspond to the true cost of an activity. Then, let the market work it out.

      Pleeeeez, that would cost rich people too much money. Do you have any idea how hard it is to make wads of money when people keep insisting that you stop using resources without paying their true cost?!

    4. Re:important reminder by cahiha · · Score: 1

      No, the best plan is to work to produce self sustaining off planet / underwater / deep-antarctic colonies. That way when the climate changes it'll just be expensive rather than fatal to the species.

      Just think it through what a "self-sustaining off-world colony" would actually mean; it is utterly implausible using current or foreseeable technologies.

    5. Re:important reminder by Chandon+Seldon · · Score: 1

      Just think it through what a "self-sustaining off-world colony" would actually mean; it is utterly implausible using current or foreseeable technologies.

      I disagree. 99% of the nessisary technology exists already, and the remaining percent consists of engineering problems not stuff where we need radical new scientific discoveries.

      Now, we currently neither have the infastructure nor the political landscape to do it, but it's still the best plan for species survival.

      --
      -- The act of censorship is always worse than whatever is being censored. Always.
    6. Re:important reminder by cahiha · · Score: 1

      I disagree. 99% of the nessisary technology exists already, and the remaining percent consists of engineering problems not stuff where we need radical new scientific discoveries.

      I see. So, you think we have the technology to lift millions of people into space, together with all the building materials, factories, and other stuff necessary to grow food and produce replacement parts? Because that's what it would take for a self-sustaining colony. Well, that's a neat trick. Do tell us more.

      it's still the best plan for species survival.

      In different words, you are saying that we are a doomed species.

    7. Re:important reminder by mrRay720 · · Score: 1

      >So, you think we have the technology to lift millions of people into space

      A colony doesn't need millions of people. A few thousand should more than suffice. Besides, people are biological people factories. We only need get enough up there to have enough biodiversity and get em going at it like rabbits. If weight is really an issue, start sending up kids (obviously with sufficient supervisory adults) and let time take it's own path.

      >together with all the building materials

      Well I doubt this colony will just be sitting in empty space. Wherever we end up - moon, mars, elsewhere - we can make use of resources at that point.

      > factories

      Nanotech and self-assembling/reproducing machinery would be an excellent boon here. As long as we have the required resources where we go to, and a way to make it, it can happen.

      > and other stuff necessary to grow food and produce replacement parts?

      Give it an atmosphere, and the basic buildin blocks of life in a handy greenhouse, and we can do the whole food thing. For replacement parts - see factories.

      Yes we probably need a few more advancements than we currently have, but not much. The rest is all down to determination and a desire to see it actually happen. Currently that doesn't exist.

      Just like daytrips to the moon. We could have them right now - after all, the technology to get there and back was sufficiently advanced in the 60s to do it. There's just not the investment there any more.

    8. Re:important reminder by Jim_Callahan · · Score: 1

      That's pretty much the opposite of the point here. The point is that completely non-human-dependant changes could screw us all over, so we need to find out what they are and how to exert control over them if we want to survive. It may be alarmist sensationalization of an otherwise innocuous scientific study, but that IS the course of action implied by the story.

      --
      ...it's really a sad day for America when we require a goddamn ACT OF CONGRESS to make our DVD players work properly. ~
    9. Re:important reminder by CFTM · · Score: 1

      You're busy thinking about yourself and not thinking about the species as a whole [and so you know, I'm probably thinking about myself when it comes down to it as well, aka this post isn't an attempt to gain a moral high ground]. As a species we only need one ship full of probably 13 people to continue; I could be wrong on the number needed but it's not too many.

    10. Re:important reminder by cahiha · · Score: 1

      A few thousand should more than suffice.

      And how are a "few thousand" going to produce the chips, plastics, alloys, ceramics, machines, electronics, chemicals, and food that a colony needs to sustain itself?

      Nanotech and self-assembling/reproducing machinery would be an excellent boon here. As long as we have the required resources where we go to, and a way to make it, it can happen.

      If that technology existed, we'd be using it on earth instead of fighting wars over oil and minerals. In fact, it doesn't exist and isn't even close to being realized. The only way we have of getting resources out of the soild is with huge machinery and large work crews.

      Just like daytrips to the moon. We could have them right now - after all, the technology to get there and back was sufficiently advanced in the 60s to do it. There's just not the investment there any more.

      Manned space travel is trivial in comparison with self-sustaining colonies in space or on other planets. We will likely have centuries of manned space travel throughout the solar system before colonies become self-sustaining.

    11. Re:important reminder by cahiha · · Score: 1

      As a species we only need one ship full of probably 13 people to continue; I could be wrong on the number needed but it's not too many.

      And these "13 people", how are they going to sustain themselves? Where are they going to get food, water, shelter in space? Order it over the Internet? Even the most inhospitable spot on earth is paradise compared to space, the moon, or Mars.

  29. Saving the Planet? by Cytlid · · Score: 4, Funny

    The absence of oxygen consuming organisms at that time is said to have lead to destruction of atmospheric methane which had hitherto warmed the earth.

      So if I am generating methane I'm really saving the planet? Will someone explain this to my wife?

    --
    FLR
    1. Re:Saving the Planet? by tyme · · Score: 1
      Cytlid wrote:
      The absence of oxygen consuming organisms at that time is said to have lead to destruction of atmospheric methane which had hitherto warmed the earth.
      So if I am generating methane I'm really saving the planet? Will someone explain this to my wife?

      No. If you are generating methane, you are killing the planet by contributing to global warming (methane is a greenhouse gas, and we're currently getting all the warmth we need from the sun). However, 630 million years ago the sun was not as hot or bright as it is today, and the earth needed a prodigious greenhouse effect to keep the planet from freezing, so greenhouse gasses were necessary.

      To recap:

      • 630 million years ago: methane = good
      • now: methane = bad

      So listen to your wife, and lay off the bean dip.

      --
      just a ghost in the machine.
    2. Re:Saving the Planet? by Shano · · Score: 1

      I believe the Earth has been considerably hotter in the past than it is now.

      The planet has gone through cold periods (ice ages), and hot periods, and we're currently somewhere in the middle, possibly towards the cool side.

      I very much doubt global warming or cooling will have any long-term effect on life on Earth. Whether it will affect human life is another matter, and one we should be concerned about, but life in general will keep going quite happily (assuming we don't turn the whole planet into a nuclear wasteland, in which case there'll only be cockroaches and politicians left).

  30. Obligatory H2G2 reference by Schrockwell · · Score: 1

    "I have got to tell you the most important thing you've ever heard. I've got to tell you now, and I've got to tell you in that pub there."
    "Why?"
    "Because you're going to need a very stiff drink."

    The only difference is that, instead of Vogons, now it's algae (not that the two differ in many ways).

    1. Re:Obligatory H2G2 reference by shobadobs · · Score: 2

      The only difference is that, instead of Vogons, now it's algae

      So you're into the explain-your-obvious-joke-immediately-afterwards school of humor, eh? Then here's one for you!

      Q. What's the difference between Neil Armstrong and Michael Jackson?
      A. Whereas Neil Armstrong did the earthwalk on the Moon, Michael Jackson molested small children.

      The funny part is where you expect it to be said that Michael Jackson does the moonwalk on the Earth, but instead, something completely unexpected is written (not that the moonwalk and child molestation differ in many ways).

    2. Re:Obligatory H2G2 reference by fbartho · · Score: 1

      well for one Algae poetry is regarded as the definition of "Average" in terms of its ability to make you wish to end your own life, as compared to the pool of muck that is LJ-world. The only remaining debate is how much nicer the Vogon poetry actually is.

      --
      Gravity Sucks
  31. Simpsons Quote by Elitist_Phoenix · · Score: 1

    "Would you say its time to start cracking open each others skulls and feasting on the goo inside?"
    "Yes, Yes, I would Kent"

    --
    "I'm going to f***ing bury that guy, I have done it before, and I will do it again. I'm going to f***ing kill Google"
  32. Re:it couldn't happen again... by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 2, Informative
    Everything is indirectly solar power.
    you forget radio nuclide decay heat...currently estimated to be about 1/2 of the heat in the earth.


    And where do you think those radionucleotides came from?

    That's right. They were created when some distant star went supernova. It's all due to solar power...
  33. But what about Mars? by EmbeddedJanitor · · Score: 1

    Nice way to package up a theory that there was life on mars and simultaneously answer the "what happened to all the water" question.

    --
    Engineering is the art of compromise.
  34. Can't wait for the Spielberg movie. by Ohmster · · Score: 1

    Title would be "Amoebic Shark". :)

  35. we are in an ice age now!!! by cdn-programmer · · Score: 1, Interesting

    For about 80% of the last 540 million years the earth was about 10C warmer than now. We are presently in an ice age.

    The earth was completely frozen over about 1 billion years ago and this ice age lasted probably about 1/2 billion years. Most likely it waxed and waned. When the oceans are completely frozen over they cannot absorb CO2 and the levels build up to over 100x what they are now. This is the change that the paleoclimate shows is required to lift the temperature enough to start thawing the oceans. By looking at this we can see the global warming folks are out to lunch.

    In any event - the CO2 is released by volcanizm and these processes continue even though the planet is frozen over. When the levels get high enough to melt the ice then the CO2 starts to be absorbed and ends up in the carbon sinks. This can cause the earth to tip back into an ice age and the oceans can freeze over again.

    Mixed into this equation is the role of water vapour. When the earth is fozen over - there is effetively no water vapour in the atmosphere. If one looks at the ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY CURVES one can see that below zero there is effectively no water vapour in the atmosphere. This is why it is so cold at the top of mountains.

    So - as the oceans freeze over then the H2O in the atmosphere is also lost which accelerates the cooling of the planet.

    At the present moment the earth would have to freeze down to near the tropics in order to flip us into a completely frozen over ice ball. There is enough water vapour especially in the humid sub tropics to trap enough heat that this is quite unlikely.

    However it is very likely that we will see the advancing of another period of glaciation because there have been about 20 or so in the last 2+ million years.

    This being said - eventually our current ice age will end and the planet will warm up about 10C. When this happens the poles will lose their ice caps - water vapour will form at high latitudes and lock the planet into a warm period which in the past has lasted typically for million of years.

    The reasons for this are not completely clear. Dr. Tim Paterson from Carlton University has published that the orbit of the solar system in the galaxy may be the driving factor. The theory is that cosmic radiation increases the cloud cover which reflects energy thus cooling the planet.

    It is also likely that the amount of land at high elevation is a significant factor. The earth was much warmer 30 million years ago than now. At that time we did not have the high Denver Plateau - the Tibetain plateau and most of our modern mountains such as the Rockies, Pyrenees, Alps, Andes, Himilaian and hellenic ranges were not formed.

    Land at high elevation reflects energy into space - which is why you can freeze to death at the top of mount Everest for instance in spite of the fact it is in the subtropics and it is the middle of May. Furthermore the cold scrubs the water vapour.

    At low elevation water vapour functions as a fairly effective blanket and furthermore in the tropics for instance at 40C it will be in concentrations of over 70,000 parts per million (eg 7%).

    Water Vapour in fact is the 3rd most abundant atmospheric gas.

    Compare this to the CO2 levels of 370 PPM.

    If we were to increase CO2 levels by over 100x then we get CO2 into the range of 37,000 ppm and that this level it can do the job that water vapour is doing now. Note that at 19x it cannot. This is proven by the Ordovician ice age where in spite of CO2 levels between 13x and 19x greater than now - the earth cooled by about 10C and an ice age similar to what we have now developed.

    At this time we also had a period of mountain building: The Taconic Orogeny.

    One last point. Most of our global warming folks are looking at data that goes back no longer than human history. While this may seem to be a long time - it is not significant.

    If one were to map the pages of the Encyclopeadia Britannica to the last 540 million years

    1. Re:we are in an ice age now!!! by HalfFlat · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They should also include the water vapour in their climate models and this is something else they have not done. They include the 5th most abundant gas at 370 ppm (CO2) and ignore the 3rd most abundant gas which is at an average in excess of 10,000 ppm (H2O). Nevertheles it is true that H2O is quite variable and ranges from close to zero to over 70,000 PPM mostly dependant on temperature and available liquid water. Nevertheless the H2O in the atmosphere is responsible for the planet being about 30 degrees warmer than it would be if it were not present. And it is NOT is the climate models used by the IPCC.
      Where on Earth did you hear that these climate models do not incorporate water vapour? That's nonsense. Of course they include water vapour. A two second google search for example brings up this paper on climate model sensitivity, which includes statements such as the following, right on the first page:
      The importance of water vapour feedback was clearly demonstrated in early radiative convective model climate change experiments. For example, in the late 1960s Manabe and Wetherald (1967) showed that under assumptions of fixed relative humidity in models, water vapour changes roughly doubled the 1C warming caused by a doubling of CO2 alone. Indeed, so important is the water vapour feedback, that it is generally appreciated that without this feedback climate change would be relatively small for all credible emission scenarios.

      Why are you so quick to denounce researchers investigating global warming? Why would they not have paleoclimatologists among their numbers?

    2. Re:we are in an ice age now!!! by uncadonna · · Score: 1
      You lost me at "this [lack of water vapor] is why it's so cold at the tops of mountains". Wrong in a very elementary sense.

      That was long before you completely lost me at "It is my opinion that our global warming folks should take a degree in paleoclimatology and learn what the earth is telling us before they go spouting off. " Oh please, let's do consult the paleoclimatologists. The IPCC, of course, does.

      And your mistyped final sentence, which I presume you meant to say there's no water vapor in the IPCC models. First of all, the IPCC has no models; it simply reports on the science other groups do, including running various classes of computer models. Anyway, doesn't the idea that professional climatologists who get articles in Science and Nature have never thought about water vapor strike you as even slightly implausible?

      --
      mt
    3. Re:we are in an ice age now!!! by cdn-programmer · · Score: 1

      What I meant is that quantitative CHANGES in the amount of water vapour is not being modeled. This is in chapter 7 of the report.

      They clearly are saying that while they are doing their best they have a ways to go. The GCM assume water vapour changes are short lived in the atmosphere and that water vapour levels themselves are forced by other green house gasses. The paleoclimate record shows that water vapour concentrations will change with mountain building and ocean current changes. Thus the water vapour itself would be expected to drive climate change.

      A for instance is that if we were to remove the mountains and high plateaus then both the atmospheric circulation patterns that create rain shawdow desserts would dissaper and the arid conditions would also disappear because the temperture increases over these land masses would allow the air to hold considerably more water than it does now.

      Water Vapour has a powerful feedback mechanism. If we melt the poles for instance then the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere keeps these poles melted. If we freeze the whole planet then the loss of water vapour keeps it frozen for millions of years until CO2 levels can build up.

      We have had several million years of erosion on the high elevation land areas and it is possible that the earth has passed the point where the next glacial cycle will kick in. If this is the case (which I doubt) then we may well revert back to the hothouse climate that the earth enjoyed over 80% of the last 540 million years.

      As for the GCMs. re-read chapter 7. They keep saying positive things on each of the points they have addressed - yet in every instance they point out that they have serious weakneses. Maybe this is because they want to do more research and want more funding. To me it means they don't have the problem licked. In fact - often the GCM's don't even predict the correct direction of change and this is illustrated in many websites that talk about why we are still waiting for greenhouse.

      eg http://www.john-daly.com/

      wrt water vapour itself 7.2.1.3

      Since the SAR, appraisal of the confidence in simulated water vapour feedback has shifted from a diffuse concern about upper-tropospheric humidity to a more focused concern about the role of microphysical processes in the convection parametrizations, and particularly those affecting tropical deep convection. Further progress will almost certainly require abandoning the artificial diagnostic separation between water vapour and cloud feedbacks."

      wrt cloud cover ch 7.2.2.1

      Measurements of cloud drop size distribution indicate a significant difference in the total number of drops and drop effective radius in the continental and maritime atmosphere, and some studies indicate that inclusion of more realistic drop size distribution may have a significant impact on the simulation of the present climate (Hahmann and Dickinson, 1997)."

      wrt Convection processes ch 7.2.2.2

      "The general effects of the convection parametrization on climate sensitivity are difficult to assess because the way a model responds to changes in convection depends on a range of other parametrizations, so results are somewhat inconsistent between models"

      wrt Boundry layer mixing and cloudiness ch 7.2.2.3

      "This points to the need for new approaches for boundary-layer turbulence, both for clear-sky and cloudy conditions"

      wrt rainfall. ch 7.2.3.3

      " These aspects have been explored only to a limited extent in climate models. No studies deal with true intensity of rainfall, which requires hourly (or higher resolution) data, and the analysis is typically of daily rainfall amounts."

      wrt cloud processes 7.2.2.5

      " In spite of these improvements, there has been no apparent narrowing of the uncertainty range associated with cloud feedbacks"

      wrt precipitation ch 7.2.3.3

      "Accordingly, it is important that much more attention should be devoted to precipita

    4. Re:we are in an ice age now!!! by Latent+Heat · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Sorry you got modded troll -- maybe you can get some justice in meta-moderation.

      I guess I am going to "troll to your troll."

      The point of the Mann "Hockey Stick" is not so much as that there were warm and cold periods in the past beyond the horizon of human history. The point is that the climate has been dead flat for 1400 years and only in the last 100 or even 50 years has the climate warmed, suggesting an anthropogenic source. The other part of the Hockey Stick is that the Medievel Warm Period and Viking Greenland colony days were local and not global effects.

      Trouble with the Hockey Stick is that the times past data is from tree rings and other proxies and has really big error bars. The recent past data is from meteorolgical temperature records with all of the attendent problems of heat islands and the like. The reason you don't do proxies for the recent past is that the numbers would be all over the place and wouldn't show the blade of the Hockey Stick. The reason you smooth the heck out of the proxy data is that, well, they are so noisy.

      Then you have those two Canadians who pointed out that the flat part of the Hockey Stick may be an artifact of data handling, but, wouldn't-cha-know-it, the Canadians are not climate scientists, so we can safely disregard everything they point out.

      Apart from the Hockey Stick, there are the climate modelers. I believe that their deal is that yes, water vapor is the main greenhouse gas, but the tropics are at 100 percent humidity anyway, so you won't get any more of it, so CO2 is the "swing vote on the court" if you will. They are also assuming strong positive feedback mechanisms -- is it that warming will release more CO2 from reservoirs? Is it that warming will release more H2O at higher lattitudes. I am kind of shakey on that part.

      You know, I have heard it argued that it is not entirely clear that the rise in CO2 is anthropogenic. Yes, CO2 is rising as we cut down the rain forests and burn fossil fuel, but at only half the rate, and the rest must be going into sinks. Or maybe the sources and sinks are the dominant effect, and the increase in CO2 with civilization may only be correlative and not causitive. But there are an awful lot of people who are sure of themselves.

    5. Re:we are in an ice age now!!! by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Ahh, another ice age. Well that exlains why the caps a melting.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    6. Re:we are in an ice age now!!! by cdn-programmer · · Score: 1

      It only takes on idjoit who wants to suppress ideas for this to happen. Before the idjoit came along it was at plus 4. However I didn't express the water vapour in the climate models as well as I could.

      They still do not know if there is a quantitative change in water vapour. This IMHO is a very significant issue. Also they don't really know if water vapour increases whether the planet will cool for a short while due to increased cloud cover. Tim Patterson addresses this issue mind you and say cosmic rays affect cloud cover enough to force us into an ice age.

      Now your comments are well taken. I agree. What you may not know is that there has been a letter written from a number of profs and ex profs to the Canadian government. You can read about it here:

      http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php

      Apparently the communication was scrubbed from the materials the minister was presented with. When you look at the list of who wrote it you will find the credentials are pretty imposing.

      But this is what bigots do. If you say something they don't like to hear - rather than address it they attack you or try to suppress what you say.

      -------------

      One thing we should try to do is compare the climate of the late Cretaceous to now. Or we could chose miocene I guess. Back then the planet was 10C warmer than now with no ice at the poles - at least no glaciation. The humidity of the planet was a lot warmer and many of the young mountain chains we have now didn't exist back then. In addition the atmosphere was considerably thicker than it is now with about 31% O2 in place of the 21% we have now.

      The thing is - we are locked into a snowball earth now because partly we have very arid poles and a lot of land at high elevation. The question in my mind is whether there has been enough erosion to remove enough of that high elevation land to place us into a stable hot house phase. I suspect the earth is bistable at this time and I suspect we can be in either a hot house or a snowball earth phase. But when caught in one or the other we stay there.

      The thing is that increased CO2 is so small that it isn't going to make any significant difference. You have to add all the greenhouse gasses togather and multiply the concentrations by the efficiency of the gas and when you do this you will see that CO2 is a drop in the ocean.

      A quote from the website above:

      "97% of greenhouse gases are water vapour by volume. Moreover, because of its molecular weight and absorptive capacity, water vapour is 3000 times more effective than CO2

      ---------------

      Changes in CO2 might change the overall absorbancy from 97% by an additional 1% - assuming equal contribution (which it is not) and assuming that H2O is not changed (which is also not true) and assuming a 30% increase in CO2 - Ie a 30% increase in the 3% CO2 presently contributes.

      Now look at an El Nino. The increases in H2O are VERY SIGNIFICANT. Surely we should be able to see some temperature response due to the long term effects of an El Nino. I have not seen anyone publish anything - in spite of the fact the H2O quantitative changes are very significant.

      There is another factor which people do not talk about.

      This is the fact that H2O operates at ground level. CO2 is dispersed through a much greater elevation range - however it is heavier than air so it should tend to concentrate a bit on the ground. Here mixing and air currents need to be modeled. The IPCC says they are weak in this area.

      So if the balnket of water vapour near the surface of the earth is not as thick - then the energy can disperse. OTOH if it is thick then the H2O holds the energy and the CO2 above it doesn't matter because the energy gradient prevents the energy from even reaching out of the lower atmosphere. For this reason I would expect higher H2O at low elevations to warm the lower atmosphere and simultaneously cool the upper atmosp

  36. Re:The Easiest Way for Something to Actually Happe by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1

    The boiling point of water for instance could easily be lowered or raised if we all, as a collective, just believed it to be possible for water to boil at, say... 90 degrees F.

    We'd have to get rid of a bit of excess atmosphere. It's doable, but we'd have to be careful, otherwise we might have to deal with the messy effects of explosive decompression

  37. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by inflex · · Score: 1

    Quite right, the +/-1% was most likely incorrect. The source, I cannot recall. That's what I get for replying to /. before coffee.

    After coffee I would have written something like "It'll be okay because the Iraq invasion and subsequent burnoffs along with ..." hrmm, nope, can't think of anything to combine GWBush/Iraq/Microsoft/Intel/Apple/NataliePortman, better have another coffee.

  38. Modern myth? by DragonHawk · · Score: 1

    I've seen this idea -- that slightly higher or lower concentrations of oxygen in our atmosphere would mean huge fireballs or no fire at all, respectively -- put forth before. I'm starting to suspect it's some kind of modern myth. I found nothing on Snopes.com though.

    --

    dragonhawk@iname.microsoft.com
    I do not like Microsoft. Remove them from my email address.
    1. Re:Modern myth? by jzylstra · · Score: 2, Interesting

      According to what I learned in college: "If oxygen were to reach a value of 30% of atmospheric gas composition, fires would occur whenever a lightning bolt hit humid vegetation."
      http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/cu rrent/lectures/Gaia/#EXAMP

      So there is some truth to that.

    2. Re:Modern myth? by srleffler · · Score: 1

      But of course if the Earth's atmosphere had 30% oxygen content, whatever vegetation evolved here would be fireproof.

  39. The problem with these 'grey goo'-like scenarios.. by mikiN · · Score: 2, Insightful

    is that these organisms, being carbon-based lifeforms, consist of more than just water, so they need to consume nutrients besides water to multiply, and probably just to survive at all.

    As long as those nutrients remain available, the organisms can go on converting water, but as soon as the available amount of nutrients starts falling, the population growth will decrease as well.

    Even if we suppose for the moment that the organisms are immortal and are able to survive on water and solar energy alone, they can never multiply beyond a certain point, at which the nutrients required to multiply are exhausted. The water conversion rate will then be proportional to the size of the (stable) population. It is not hard to imagine a process countering the water conversion taking hold at that time.

    --
    The Hacker's Guide To The Kernel: Don't panic()!
  40. Re:it couldn't happen again... by drerwk · · Score: 1

    Sol is our sun, not all suns.

  41. Re:it couldn't happen again... by drerwk · · Score: 1

    Ok - tell me this, is the heat energy produced by iron sinking to the center of the earth also solar energy, or might it be a conversion of gravitational potential energy. How 'bout the energy of the earth's, or other galactic magnetic fields. And lastly, if as you say everything is energy from stars, explain the energy of the universe before there were stars. Can you say cosmic background radiation? There are others non-star derived energy source as well, but I hope the point has been made.
    To think my original intention was to post regarding the incorrect capitalization of "Caltech", which is missed be most non-techers.

  42. Re:it couldn't happen again... by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    That's right. They were created when some distant star went supernova. It's all due to solar power...

    Wow, you stretched that point so far I think I heard it scream. Generally, solar power refers to power derived from our sun (which is named Sol). Everything else would be called nuclear.

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  43. Re:The Easiest Way for Something to Actually Happe by waynemcdougall · · Score: 3, Funny

    Arthur: What does it say?
    Brother Maynard : It says: "I believe! I believe! Aw crap! my blood's boiling!"
    Arthur: What?
    Brother Maynard : my blood's boiling!
    Sir Bedemere: What, he's dead?
    Brother Maynard: He must've died while posting it.
    Arthur: Oh, come on!
    Brother Maynard: Well that's what it says.
    Arthur: Look, if he was dying he wouldn't bother to type "my blood's boiling!" He'd just say it.
    Brother Maynard: Well that's what's posted on Slashdot.
    Sir Lancelot: Perhaps he was dictating.
    Arthur: Oh, shut up.

    --
    Recycle PCs and build a wireless community network www.hillsborough.org.nz
  44. It has to be said by worst_name_ever · · Score: 2, Funny

    "Those crazy microbes are going to blow up the ocean!"

    --

    In Soviet Rush, today's Tom Sawyer gets high on you.
  45. Is this even possible? by jandrese · · Score: 1

    How do bacteria get the energy to break H and O apart? It's a difficult chemical reaction (the atoms are tightly bound). All of that energy has to come from somewhere (the sun?).

    --

    I read the internet for the articles.
    1. Re:Is this even possible? by Guysmiley777 · · Score: 1

      Its being done in labs right now (very slowly), and its the basis of photosynthesis. Taking water and splitting the hydrogen off to make carbohydrates. NOVA did a special last month about it: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3210/01.ht ml

      --
      Coding with assembly is like playing with Legos. Coding an application in assembly is like building a car with Legos.
  46. Blame microbes for everything. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    Microbes caused the ice age? That's not half of it... MICROBES ATE MY BALLS!

    I would put up a link to a website detailing the evidence for this, but I'm too tired, and come to think of it, I don't have the balls to do it.

  47. Re:it couldn't happen again... by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1
    Generally, solar power refers to power derived from our sun (which is named Sol).
    From a NASA press release on the planet orbiting HD 28185, a star 128.5 light years from Earth:

    Extrasolar moons of HD 28185 b and iota Hor b, if they exist, would have the additional advantage of getting enough solar radiation to support Earth-like temperatures. This would help keep water liquid, although it may not be necessary for life to appear.

    source

  48. Re:it couldn't happen again... by Chrispy1000000+the+2 · · Score: 1

    What about protonic decay, hun? What about that! :p

    --
    Sig
  49. Re:it couldn't happen again... by AJWM · · Score: 1

    Extrasolar moons of HD 28185 b and iota Hor b, if they exist, would have the additional advantage of getting enough solar radiation

    Yet another shining example of NASA attention to detail.

    --
    -- Alastair
  50. Nope, can't append the actual code... by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

    ...because the text of a C program has "too many junk characters" and is "lame" by /. standards. Golly.

  51. much better article by uncadonna · · Score: 2, Informative
    here.

    Hey editors, Google is your friend!

    --
    mt
  52. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by zippthorne · · Score: 1

    I don't know where you got your 16% figure from, but i've been in the mountains where PPO2 was as low as .12 atmospheres and I was fine. (ok a little winded, but i made sure to take things slow) Since I followed trails there and there was a restaurant, I can only assume that I am not special.

    --
    Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  53. HHGTTG sums it up by Chrispy1000000+the+2 · · Score: 2, Informative

    "Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." -- Douglas Adams

    --
    Sig
  54. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by Alsee · · Score: 1

    Another +1% of O2 and we'd have a fireball raging, another -1% of O2 and things would not ignite in the free atmosphere.

    Did you know that if the oceans were three feet deeper every living thing on earth would drown? And if there were three feet less water the entire planet would be a desert and everything would shrivel and die? :)

    -

    --
    - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
  55. How do You get that Job? by sycodon · · Score: 1

    Does anyone know how you get the job of coming up with ways for the earth to be destroyed?

    Just wondering.

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    1. Re:How do You get that Job? by sparkane · · Score: 1

      Ask this guy.

  56. The article is a little misleading by Legion303 · · Score: 1

    Scientists have known for a long time that early life on earth was anaerobic and that oxygen was a deadly poison, and that bacteria came along and changed the atmosphere. The real breakthrough in the paper might be the mechanism used by the bacteria to convert the atmosphere, but I haven't read it (and might not understand it if I did).

  57. Re:The Easiest Way for Something to Actually Happe by uberdave · · Score: 1

    Sorry, not so. Just because people believed the Earth was flat did not make it so. (Unless we're talking about redefining the word "flat"). The way the universe works is independant of our understanding of the way the universe works. Like Shakespeare said "That which we call a rose, by any other name would smell".

  58. typical wired pseudo-journalism... by tongue · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This is what happens when consumer journalists are allowed to write stories about real science.

    Newsflash: nearly all autotrophic life on earth (read: photosynthetic life, commonly known as plants) breaks down water when it creates glucose. Basically what the students have figured out is that cyanobacteria came up with a significant part of the chemical reactions that just about every plant on earth uses now, rather than those reactions evolving further down the chain.

    The fact that this occured isn't new. at all. originally it was thought that the O2 that plants make came from the C02 they take in, but it was demonstrated quite some time ago that the plants actually split water and use the oxygens from that for the 02.

    conclusion: cnet writers are idiots.

  59. This title is nice by bsquizzato · · Score: 1

    The title of this article puts into my head visions of millions of pac-men chomping down on the ocean.

  60. I don't think so by Sensible+Clod · · Score: 1

    Where is all this CO2 supposed to have come from? The planet is covered with ice, remember? All life has been extinguished. What on earth (no pun intended) is going to produce it?

    This has got to be in the top 5 dumbest theories evar...

    --

    The difference between spam and poop is that you don't have to dig through septic tanks looking for real food. -- Me
    1. Re:I don't think so by Sensible+Clod · · Score: 1

      Hate replying to myself, but I just noticed the words "volcanic eruption." Okay, but is this known for a fact? How on earth does a volcano come to be a contributor of organic gases?

      --

      The difference between spam and poop is that you don't have to dig through septic tanks looking for real food. -- Me
    2. Re:I don't think so by Elshar · · Score: 1

      CO2 (and a LOT of other greenhouse gases, btw) aren't 'organic'. You're thinking of things like methane which are typically formed by biological organisms.

    3. Re:I don't think so by Moridineas · · Score: 4, Informative


      Wikipedia. Volcanoes. Easy to read about it.

      Quote: "Volcanic activity now releases about 130 to 230 teragrams (145 million to 255 million short tons) of carbon dioxide each year."

      Sometimes much higher if there is a extremely large eruption.

    4. Re:I don't think so by dheltzel · · Score: 2, Funny
      If volcanoes produce this much CO2, why weren't they include in the Kyoto talks. It seems like they would be adversely affected by having to cut emissions and ought to have some sort of say in the matter.

      Equal Rights for Vocanoes !!

    5. Re:I don't think so by RoLi · · Score: 2, Informative

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Global_Carbon_E mission_by_Type.png Yeah, I know you tried to be funny, nevertheless CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels is well over 6000 million tons per year or about 20-30 times that what volcanos produce.

    6. Re:I don't think so by Baorc · · Score: 1

      Exactly, so people, to save us from the next Ice Age, we should all buy SUV's!

    7. Re:I don't think so by gstoddart · · Score: 1
      If volcanoes produce this much CO2, why weren't they include in the Kyoto talks.

      Something about geographic features not being valid signatories to treaties or something.

      Maybe we need a regime change? =)
      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  61. Ra's al Ghul? by NanoGradStudent · · Score: 1

    Ra's al Ghul is that you?

    (For those who didn't have a misspent childhood reading comic books, Ra's al Ghul is the eco-terrorist supervillain in Batman who seeks "balance" between man and nature, usually involving the extermination of the former)

    --
    Just a little guy, y'know?
    1. Re:Ra's al Ghul? by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      What is this peculiar insanity that afflicts people these days? Where the messenger holds up a mirror, and the reflected people believe it's some kind of raygun that's making them into the terrible visions they see of themselves within it?

      WAKE UP! I'm not making humans into self-destructos. I don't wish for that destruction. I wish we'd stop. That's why I'm pointing it out. How infantile are you, really?

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    2. Re:Ra's al Ghul? by NanoGradStudent · · Score: 1

      It was a remark made in jest, like (I thought) most of the "xxx, is that you?" memes. While I probably should have qualified that initially, I didn't mean to suggest that you were an eco-terrorist, or wished for the wholesale destruction of human kind.

      FWIW, I do agree with some of your sentiments; we need to be a warden to what little (in many places) remains of our environment. Headlong destruction of natural habitats and countless species of plants/animals/etc. can only lead to (or has already led to) trouble.

      --
      Just a little guy, y'know?
    3. Re:Ra's al Ghul? by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      I usually see that "XXX, is that you?" as sarcasm. As hard as unsignified sarcasm can be to detect in ASCII, mere jest is even harder when sarcasm is the norm. Sorry for not noting it - it was too hard for me.

      I'm also especially sensitive these days to "shoot the messenger" reactions. Because I'm often the messenger. I've been among groups of people who have been warning others, especially over the Internet, about the inevitable damage that many widespread mistakes are doing. Now that they're coming home to roost, especially in the environmental damage, I'm getting lots of attacks by people just starting to consciously consider the truth as it finally dawns on them. Their initial reaction is usually denial, so they shoot the messenger. Which is me. My patience is worn out, and it's hard to determine who deserves a better response than just a barrage of counterabuse. Like maybe "Sit, Ubu, sit. Good dog." :).

      --

      --
      make install -not war

  62. Canadian? by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 1
    We are presently in an ice age.

    Hey "cdn-programmer" I live in Canada too and I love it there as well but you really need to get out a bit more. May I suggest a short holiday to a place called the Caribbean? :-)

  63. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by nusuth · · Score: 2, Funny

    I have this vision of a raging fireball in an epic battle with unending floods, courtesy of one percent more oxygen and 3 feet higher oceans. Perhaps I could turn that in to direct to DVD movie. Thanks /.

    --

    Gentlemen, you can't fight in here, this is the War Room!

  64. Imediate Action Now! by TheLoneCabbage · · Score: 2, Funny

    I demand that the government employ thousands of (** remove** astronomers) biologists to blanket the (** remove** sky ) ocean watching out for these killer (** remove** aseroids ) microbes. At the moment we can only observe .00001% of the (** remove** sky ) marine biosphere. We need this protection now!

  65. Unfortunately... by jd · · Score: 1

    ...I have bad news. He was seen leaving Doctor Who's TARDIS and it can be therefore assumed that he was reading next thursday's newspaper headlines.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  66. Re:Rather unlikely to happen as long as we have fi by tehdaemon · · Score: 1

    Others have pointed out that this is part of the normal photosynthetic process. And yes, the plants use the oxygen. Sunlight.

    --
    Laws are horrible moral guides, moral guides make even worse laws.
  67. Cold at top of the mountains by sita · · Score: 1

    Mixed into this equation is the role of water vapour. When the earth is fozen over - there is effetively no water vapour in the atmosphere. If one looks at the ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY CURVES one can see that below zero there is effectively no water vapour in the atmosphere. This is why it is so cold at the top of mountains.

    You might be right, but I'm not following here. Absolute humidity is quite low in the Sahara too. You don't think that there is a connection to the fact air, and dry air specifically, has low specific heat, and since there is more air, and less land at the top of the mountains, it is colder? Could wind, carrying away whatever heat there was, play a role? Is it possible that the condensation of water vapour into rain cools the air?

    1. Re:Cold at top of the mountains by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1
      Is it possible that the condensation of water vapour into rain cools the air?

      No. Quite the opposite: Condensation of water produces heat. The reverse process consumes heat (that's the mechanism behind sweating, and that's also why raining tends to cool down the air - the water evaporates into the air, thus removing heat from it).
      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    2. Re:Cold at top of the mountains by cdn-programmer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You are partially correct. The cooling at the top of a mountain is due to the expansion of the air at high elevation. This takes energy and the energy is lost as heat.

      However the trapping of the energy at the top of a mountain is what I am talking about. There is a greater amount of solar energy at the top of a mountain that at the sahara dessert for instance. This can easily be seen. The air absorbs solar energy. The solar constant in orbit is about 1.3 kw/m^2 and at sea level it is about 1.0 kw/m^2

      The difference is what is absorbed by the atmosphere. And these numbers are from memory.

      At the top of a mountain you have two processes working:

      1) the energy is reflected back into space
      2) there is not much up there to trap it

      The lack of water vapour at high elevation is a critical factor. Get rid of the mountains and you have a number of factors that work together to warm up the planet.

  68. I had that book when I was a kid by karlandtanya · · Score: 1
    In the book I had, there were 6 brothers. One could hold his breath for a very long time, one could withstand great heat, one could swallow the ocean, one had a neck made of iron, etc.


    The story started with the prince drowning, and sentence was passed on the brother. But, the authorities did not know there were 6 brothers, so when execution day came, the appropriate brother was sent to be killed.


    If execution was to be by baking in an oven, they sent the brother could withstand heat. Beheading? Send the brother with the iron neck.


    Eventually, the authorities realized they simply could not kill this man. To resolve the issue, they forgave the brother who could swallow the sea. They ruled the prince's death the prince's own fault, since the initial brother had only swallowed the sea at the prince's order.

    --
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, it doesn't go away." - Philip K. Dick
  69. Not to worry by dheltzel · · Score: 1
    Global warming will even things out.

    Isn't it wierd how one scary theory cancels out another? It's almost like the scientists are having fun trying to outdo each other in their competition for "scary theory" funding, or whatever they call it in the current budget.

  70. CFC vs Bacteria: Fight!! by randomErr · · Score: 1

    SNK couldn't have planned a better battle.

    The CFC will warm the Earth at the same rate as the bacteria will cool the earth who will win? Will my backyard become a dessert, a winter playland, or just stay the same?

    --
    You say things that offend me and I can deal with it. Can you?
  71. Except... by mr.mighty · · Score: 1

    Mars has lost most of its atmosphere. Mars also seems to have lost most of its water. Mars seems to have had free-running water in the past, with a thicker atmosphere. The thick atmosphere is gone. Most of the water seems to be either frost, or polar icecap.

    It is suspected that Mars' atmosphere was kept in equilibrium due to volcanic activity. Once the volcanoes stopped (slowed enough that we don't detect any activity), they couldn't counter the losses anymore. Remember, a lower gravity means that an equivalent amount of atmosphere extends further out into space, due to the pressure. At the fringes, the effects of gravity are significantly lower, and so Mars had a harder job of keeping its atmosphere in the first place. Water vapour gets broken into oxygen and hydrogen, with the hydrogen flying into space and the oxygen reacting with the iron in the soil.

    1. Re:Except... by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      It has? I thought the consensus from the orbiters was that Mars has plenty of water. Frozen, to be sure. Or are you saying Mars may have a lot of water but it has a lot less than it started with? How do we know what it started with?

    2. Re:Except... by mr.mighty · · Score: 1

      It has a lot less than it started with. Now most of it is in the caps, or frost, with a little bit in the very thin atmosphere. There is evidence of running water having existed in the past. If it was all still there, you'd expect to see frozen lakes and rivers. You'd also have to explain why it didn't all sublimate into that thin atmosphere, making it much thicker.

  72. Ice-nine by marlingrando · · Score: 1

    I wonder would this ever be as disastrous as Ice-nine in Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.'s novel Cat's Cradle? http://www.everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=572596

  73. Another Kyoto scofflaw? by TheConfusedOne · · Score: 1
    Does this passage catch anyone else's attention?
    'We haven't had a Snowball in the past 630 million years, and because the sun is warmer now it may be harder to get into the right condition.


    I thought all this warming thing was solely the fault of us people spewing green house gasses.
    --
    --- I wish I could hear the soundtrack to my life. That way I'd know when to duck.
    1. Re:Another Kyoto scofflaw? by fluffy666 · · Score: 1

      I thought all this warming thing was solely the fault of us people spewing green house gasses.

      The sun has gotten 20% warmer OVER THE PAST 4.5 Billion Years. That is a slightly longer timescale than global warming.

  74. I wouldn't blame scientists by Moraelin · · Score: 1

    Science more or less just says what _is_. I.e., what happened or what can happen.

    There's nothing inherently "scary" in it. It's just trying to understand how the universe works. The universe as such, isn't either "good" or "evil", "friendly" or "scary". It just "is".

    It only starts to be "scary" when sensationalist journalists and wannabe messiahs take that science and repack it as yet another doomsday theory.

    "Here's how (we think) something happened a billion years ago" doesn't quite sell newspapers, outside academic circles. Yeah, those cyanobacteria were mean mofos, but how does that affect me nowadays? "If this happens tomorrow, we're all DOOMED!" however seems to. It's suddenly presented as something that is, or can be, your problem.

    So guess which of the two will journos spin the story as. Right.

    And then come the wannabe messiahs. There are people who actually need a good doomsday theory, and need to imagine that they're fighting to save the world. Preferrably one by which everyone else is a morally bankrupt bastard, if they don't immediately change their lifestyle.

    Some people just _need_ that warm fuzzy "I'm fighting to save the world" (and you all are morally bankrupt bastards contributing to the problem) feeling. Gives their lives some meaning, I guess.

    So once some journo has spun a story into something scary enough, a group of these _will_ rally around it, proclaim it to be The Ultimate Truth, and put it on a banner for their next crusade.

    And where I'm getting at with this long rant, is that it's not scientists that are waving around all these contradicting doomsday theories. (And much less as ultimate truths. Science has _no_ ultimate truth set in stone.) The ones you're seeing making the doomsday fuss are the journos and these wannabe messiah groups, not the scientists who are measuring oxygen concentration in rocks.

    And yes, you have correctly noted that fashionable doomsday theories do conveniently omit any factors which might even things out.

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
  75. Obligatory... Welcome... by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1
    I, for one, welcome our future subsurface lithoautrophic microbial ecosystem overlords.

    Ahhh...that felt good.

    --
    It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
  76. Actually, nope by Moraelin · · Score: 1

    "When/If the awful end comes, dont you think that if anyone will have seen it coming, it will be "an alarmist"?"

    When/if the awful end comes, I expect a scientist to see it coming.

    For starters, that's where the alarmist save-the-world crowd get (and then pervert) their ideas from. First comes the scientist who measures something, and only _then_ some doomsday prophet takes that and perverts it into a doomsday scare story to save the world from.

    E.g., it wasn't the eco-scare folks who measured the 1 degree celsius rise in a whole century (which started the global warming madness), it was first measured and plotted by some meteorologsists. The eco-scare gang only then came and took over the idea.

    So I'll just cut the middleman (especially the kind of middleman who doesn't even understand it, but is in it just to feel important by "saving the world") and get my facts directly from the scientists.

    Same with a clock, really. If I think it's broken, I won't take my time from it at all. Not to see which time it is, not to see the time it isn't. I'll NTP to a reference atomic clock instead.

    When/if the time comes, chances are about 11 out of 12, or about 92%, that the broken clock won't just show the wrong time, but the wrong hour altogether. Likewise when/if the awful end comes, probably the doomsday prophets will be in dada land, whining about some completely other topic.

    E.g., if the awful end comes as a hydrogen-producing bacteria run amok and massive glaciation, the currently fashionable scare-story would be that sex causes cholesterol and everyone should stop doing it. Or that the sudden drop in temperature is really still global warming. Or whatever unrelated.

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
  77. Reading comprehension by Llywelyn · · Score: 1

    The snowball earth happened 630 million years ago. Not 4.5 bya.

    That's a slightly shorter time scale than the age of the earth.

    --
    Integrate Keynote and LaTeX
    1. Re:Reading comprehension by fluffy666 · · Score: 1

      Reading comprehension???

      Pardon me, but I was replying to a person who was seeking to blame the temperature trend over the past 150 years on the main sequence progression of the sun, which as I correctly pointed out, implies an approxamate 20% increase on insolation over the lifetime of the planet thus far.

      Or, around 3% since 630 million years ago, which is enough to make a snowball earth very unlikely, but clearly has nothing to do with short term temperature trends.

  78. Shorter time scale? by TheConfusedOne · · Score: 1

    We've got reports from last year saying the Sun has been brighter recently and we've got higher sunspot activity than we've seen in 1,000 years. linky

    My, somewhat ironic, point was that everyone has been so busy pointing fingers at us humans that we forget that we're not the only ones in control of the climate.

    --
    --- I wish I could hear the soundtrack to my life. That way I'd know when to duck.
    1. Re:Shorter time scale? by fluffy666 · · Score: 1

      That is, of course, a completely different point to the one you were originally making, and highly controversial - for instance, it seems that activity his been constant over the last 50 years, yet the temperature record shows a strong warming over the last 25.

      Your second sentance seems to imply that climate scientists are a bunch of idiots who have completely disregarded solar influences; do you believe this to be true?

    2. Re:Shorter time scale? by TheConfusedOne · · Score: 1

      No, my point is more along the lines of "correlation does not equal causation".

      The best example is probably the infamous "hockey stick" warming graph. It appears that putting random data into it the controls used create a hockey stick result every time.

      I'm not saying that the people shouting about the science of global warming are idiots I'm saying that the issue is far more complex than most people appreciate.

      The issue about sun spots and increased solar output goes to the fact that even if Kyoto were fully implemented the overall mean temperature change expected from it could be easily wiped out by another increase in solar output. Conversely a decrease in solar output could create the exact same effect as Kyoto without a single polution control being put in place.

      Does this mean we shouldn't do anything about pollution? Of course not, in fact, if you look at the records you'll see that we've already done quite a lot to combat pollution. Further efforts should be encouraged just don't run around screaming "fire".

      --
      --- I wish I could hear the soundtrack to my life. That way I'd know when to duck.
    3. Re:Shorter time scale? by fluffy666 · · Score: 1

      No, my point is more along the lines of "correlation does not equal causation".

      Correlation is a reason for investigation. A lack of correlation is evidence against a factor (such as solar forcing being dominant in climate change).

      I'm not saying that the people shouting about the science of global warming are idiots I'm saying that the issue is far more complex than most people appreciate.

      AGW science IS very complex, yes. Which is why some of us get annoyed when it seems that people cast arounbd for any reason to try and discredit it without doing even a bit of research first. It is very similar to creationist tactics.

  79. Natural density for humans by protolith · · Score: 1

    I'm sorry, but what is a natural density for humans?

    Actually, depending on fat content, it is around that of water. A little less after death, due to gasses generated in decomposition.

    Humans, SG ~ 1

  80. MOD Parent Insightful by protolith · · Score: 1

    Humans have yet to demonstrate the ability to screw up this planet enough that for life to survive it would have to CHANGE THE GAS IT LIVES ON! in order to continue.

  81. Re:it couldn't happen again... by pclminion · · Score: 1
    And where do you think those radionucleotides came from?

    Not OUR sun... So it's "solar" in the sense of "star power" but not in the sense of "comes from Sol, our star." I think it's a useful distinction to make. If the sun burned out we'd still have that power.

  82. Grass by SgtChaireBourne · · Score: 1

    It's been ages since I've studied any biology / geology, but if I recall correctly, there was another major climate change about the time of the spread of grasses across the surface. They would change the composition of the atmosphere over time as well as change how heat is absorbed or retained.

    --
    Beta is broken and the link to classic doesn't work. Stop wasting our time or there won't be anybody left here.
  83. Re:it couldn't happen again... by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1

    Assuming Earth survived the "red giant" phase, yes...

  84. scientific review process by The+Fun+Guy · · Score: 1

    That is not true whatsoever... broadly ignorant statements about all scientists and research grants

    Actually, my statements are not made based on a layman's ignorance, or even based on a generalized theoretical concept of how grant funding works. It's based on my professional experiences as a scientist reviewing grant proposals and making recommendations on which proposals to fund, as well as my experiences writing and submitting research grants.

    As part of the review process, the panel of scientists responsible for evaluating the proposal takes into consideration the significance of the problem being investigated. How is significance defined? Typically, it's based on the professional judgement of the scientists on the review panel as to what constitutes an important problem. However, it is also based on mandates and directives from the funding agency. If someone highly placed (funding agency director, congressman, etc.) has been swayed by alarmist press surrounding the Iceball Earth phenomenon, and has, as a result, decided that we need to know more about it, then there will be a pot of money set aside just for that topic. These earmarked research funds ensure that this topic will get at least a certain non-zero level of funds, a guarantee that other topics don't have.

    Political pressure is one of the forces which drives research money in one direction or another. That's just a fact of science. The more urgent and important your research is percieved to be, the greater liklihood it will be funded. The more trivial and irrelevant your research is percieved to be, the less likely it will be funded.

    --
    The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them. - Mark Twain
  85. Blah by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 1

    Sigh we already have these algae, their called blue algae.

    We have things that eat them now, so they aren't a problem.

    When Oxygen was a poison to most creatures THEN it was a problem now it's not.

    Don't bunch your panties.

  86. Which side has the religion? by TheConfusedOne · · Score: 1

    I think the people making the most noise right now are the ones claiming that by not signing Kyoto we've doomed the planet. Of course, they do this to lay tha blame at the feet of the current President rather than acknowledge that Kyoto had been voted dead long before the current President took office.

    There are studies saying that Total Solar Irradiance varies by as much as 0.2% per day (due to level and location of sunspots). This represents a huge amount of energy but they aren't sure if it affects weather. The atmosphere actually expands during Solar Maximums.

    I just really don't see how ANY model can hope to gather all of these items together to come up with viable trends and solutions to global climate change.

    --
    --- I wish I could hear the soundtrack to my life. That way I'd know when to duck.