J. Allard Predicts Disappointment at 360 Launch
Eurogamer has an interview with J. Allard about the 360's imminent launch. Among other things, he admits that some people will be let down by the console supplies when it goes retail in Europe. From the article: "We decided we're going to take a little bit of heat on allocations, frankly, in all the territories rather than take a lot of heat in one or two territories. So, we're not saying Europe comes four months later, we're saying Europe comes now, but with that combining it with the physics properties of the silicon means we're going to have some disappointment in terms of what we can provide to retail and ultimately to the consumers this year, but that's okay, because we want to get the market started. We want to get started on a worldwide basis, we want to do the right thing for gamers, for our publishers and for consumers."
The fact that consumers won't be able to get their hands on this immediatly is secondary to reaction they will get from publishers with an innability to quickly ramp install base and help them get some ROI in Q4
Allard was basically saying, the whole time, that the won't make nearly enough units and that there will be problems and that the first games will suck and that the press should not descend on them like vultures. Talk about anti-hype! But I think what's important for MS is that they have their marketing machine in gear before PS3 launches (surely with its own set of troubles), and I expect they will.
"It's the best game that's ever been created"? I'm sorry, but your credibility just dropped to 0. I've played it, and it's a good game, but I can name 10 games I certainly enjoyed more off the top of my head (Hmm, Zelda : OOT, Goldeneye, WoW, Ico, SM 64, KOTOR just to pick some at random). I doubt you'll find any actual game critics who would name it in their top 5, let alone their favorite ever game (we are *not* counting single platform "unbiased" magazines/fansites that only cover Xbox). Hell, the rather unreliable Gamerankings doesn't even have it in their top 10.
The best PR requires at least a modicum of truth. Total out and out bullshit makes you look like an idiot Mr Allard, and I stopped reading your interview right there.
You go with "J. Allard Predicts Disappointment at 360 Launch" instead of something closer to what the article contends such as "J. Allard Predicts Supply Disappointment at 360 Launch". News, this is not...
Even though I have given up attempting to understand the purchasing habits of 'Normal' people, I honestly suspect that Microsoft is putting themselves into a horrible position with the Xbox 360. Microsoft is releasing their system too early (the XBox only launched 4 years ago), they system (and accessories) cost way too much, and the first generation of games (even by Microsoft's own admission) are not of next generation quality.
Even though it is by no means a scientific measure, I have talked to many XBox owners and it doesn't sound too peachy for Microsoft; most of them say that they think the 360 is cool but they have no plans to purchase one. The most common comment I have heard from XBox owners is that the XBox already produces 'good enough' graphics and it isn't worth $500 to upgrade their system.
I wouldn't doubt they do this on purpose. There is probably some historical, mathematical or even emotional reasoning to limiting the distribution on launch.
Lower supply, increase demand. Those who said "I'll wait a month or two to buy an XBox360", are now thinking, "Oh man, if I don't buy it NOW, I may not get it for a long time, I better get in line today for one".
They could even be completely lying, say supply is "Low", but don't provide any real numbers as to what "Low" means, and then get people lining up and "Low" could mean "Have enough for everyone", now they have a much nicer launch, plus they can say "Sold out!" which drives people even more to want one.
Tell someone they can't have it, or may not be able to get it, and all the sudden their wallet is open. Say we have over-stock on XBox360's, and people take their time getting to the store for one.
Modesty is one of life's greatest attributes
meaning you can make only so many chips (out of silicon) in a set ammount of time. there will not be an unlimited number of consoles ready by release date.
The games look good. Really good... But... To me it feels like the original Xbox all over again. Not to say the original Xbox was fun, but I didn't run out to buy it til it was $149. I feel the same about the new Xbox360 because even though I really want to play the "The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion" (it just look so damn awesome visually) I don't think it's currently worth the money to be the first to buy it before the holiday.
Maybe quarter2 will be good time to buy and I think many people feel the same way with the wait and see attitude. I don't think this means failure of the xbox, but i think many people are either waiting for a price drop in the console or what Sondy and Nintendo show us first and then make a decision on which console to get.
"I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
-Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
I've taken the liberty of shortening his answers considerably.
Eurogamer: What was the hardest part of getting to where you are now? The hardware or the software?
J Allard: Both.
Eurogamer: How many units do you think there will be available for launch?
J Allard: No comment.
Eurogamer: Has the launch proved harder than you expected?
J Allard: No.
Eurogamer: Are you worried that this is going to overshadow your message because the media's going to talk about lack of stock?
J Allard: I hope not.
Eurogamer: Can you be specific on the launch line-up, because it's still kind of ambiguous what games you're going to launch with the console.
J Allard: The ones that are done!
Eurogamer: Can I press you on that? Can you say with conviction which ones?
J Allard: No.
Eurogamer: What are you hoping for?
J Allard: All three of the first party titles to be there on day one.
Eurogamer: Are you saying these three key titles might not be ready for launch?
J Allard: Yes.
Eurogamer: Does that keep you up at night, the fact that you know you can't guarantee these three key titles from you, and other key titles from other publishers might not be there for launch?
J Allard: No.
Eurogamer: Would you risk putting a game out that was almost finished?
J Allard: It's up to the publishers, you know, it's happened before.
Eurogamer: Do you feel X05 was a success?
J Allard: Yes.
Eurogamer: Can you tell us a little more about Xbox Live Arcade?
J Allard: We're going to have 15-20 games this holiday.
Eurogamer: Can you list any of those?
J Allard: No.
Eurogamer: It'd be nice to see some retro titles on other systems, available on Live Arcade maybe?
J Allard: Maybe.
Eurogamer: What about the Xbox Live Market Place stuff? It's intriguing...
J Allard: It is intriguing.
Eurogamer: Is this very much a publisher lead thing, or is Microsoft Games Studios going to be doing experimental stuff as well?
J Allard: Both.
I posted on this a while back, and predicted a shortage, especially in the upcoming holiday season. I thought, and still think, this could be somewhat artificial so Microsoft can roll it out under way-too-high prices under the auspices of "rare" goods (anyone remember the Cabbage Patch Dolls?).
So, they create an artificial shortage, whip up crazed demand, sell way over price through the holiday season with the additional wallop of great sales afterwards from all of the parents who weren't able to get the box for their kids, but promised they'd get it for them as soon as they became available. Good marketing... turns my stomach a bit.
what you said is english - his bullshit isn't. He could have said, the challenges of putting out enough physical products, and getting enough chips from our vendors. He didn't instead trucating the blather by using the cute term that means something on the microsoft campus - but dick-all elsewhere.
We want to get started on a worldwide basis, we want to do the right thing for gamers, for our publishers and for consumers.
Anyone else find it odd that Mr. Allard separates the two and thus implies that they are not the same thing? Not a sermon, just a thought.
Power PC chips? In short supply?
I'm glad to see Microsoft continues to follow in Apple's footsteps.
The ______ Agenda
Nice for some more confirmation that Australia and New Zealand are at the arse end of the world. We get to wait until "early 2006". Clearly that's not going to be January or they'd just release it in December, so I'm betting we're going to have to wait at least four months after the US as usual.
Thanks MS. Yet again.
Bill
bamph
Isn't this true for every M$ product? Look at what happened to Longhorn... Instead of something new, we get a neutered package. M$ hypes and promises like mad up till it's time to push something out the door, and then everything starts to come unglued.
Insert Sig Here
Just from the title, it sounds like he's saying the system is going to suck. No, not so.... the only disapointment that's going to come of it is the lack of quantity early on. But I thought that's what all these expensive ass "bundles" were supposed to be about, so that only people who really really wanted one would be able to afford it. Frankly it pisses me off because you know the people selling them are set to make a ton of money. And I can already imagine how much they're going to go for on eBay.
I really want a 360 but I'm not willing to pay $800 for one... who knows how long I will have to wait. Oh well..
Joseph?
we don't care what you think of our product. It will suck, yes. We lied to you in what we can provied, we lied, but who gives a shit about it. We make it look so cool, that you will give us your money. And then, we launch the second extended version, and we will get your money again. Ain't that cool. ... flush them, I get 100 more from you tomorrow.
Damn, no toilet paper, I'll just use this 100$ bills here
"Freiheit ist immer auch die Freiheit des Andersdenkenden" - Rosa Luxemburg, 1871 - 1919
The slashdot headline has a finite amount of space.
It's the same as the comment subject limit.
Observe what happened when I tried your suggestion.
...has a release date! Australia is still being told "early 2006".
Call it misspoken. If he had said, "the phyical properties of silicon" then he would have been correct. He's even smarter than I. I knew that lead (Pb), for example, has the physical property of being a solid at room temperature. Unbeknownst to me, silicon (Si) apparently has the physical property of resisting MS game console production.
Thank god fanboys (Fb) have an electrochemical weakness which causes them to be attracted to all things new and shiny.
-- I have fans? Wow.
Technically xbox 360 is the first ever "rushed" console. M$ can rush windows OS out the door and get some hotfixes later. But I am curious to see how this console holds up assuming people really don't want to do console firmware upgrades.
Thank you for bringing a shred of sanity to Slashdot.
I'm the guy with the unpopular opinion
Stop
...that quote reminds me somehow remotely of something else...
THIS IS THE INTERNET. PLEASE PICK UP YOUR SERIOUS BUSINESS SUIT AT THE FRONT COUNTER.
I would call the Nintendo DS rushed as well. The firmware is far from perfect (switching off the system after changing conigurations?!? not able to remap the buttons in GBA emulation?) and outside Japan the launch lineup was awful with an N64 port as the flagship title (not a problem for me since I had no N64 but a problem for the rest). Some Sega consoles were rushed, too, I think.
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
Marketing should always be read in Advocatus Diaboli mode. Perhaps he's saying ithe 60 will exhibit an unusually large failure rate.
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
After all, the chips are supposed to be developed by now, and I don't expect them to change much over the lifetime of the console. Except maybe for some bugfixes that come with a firmware update.
Thus, claiming that the "physics properties of the silicon" will lead to initial disappointment is not very credible.
C - the footgun of programming languages
So does this mean when the shortage hits just in time for X-Mas, they'll all show up on eBay for like $1000 a piece? I mean seriously, I can envision them costing that much when the parent who has the spoiled brat child HAS to get this for them.
Paranoid comment of the day: What would keep M$ from secretly selling these on eBay for an extra $200 or $300 to all those people struck by the shortage...
"Some days you just can't get rid of a bomb."
Saying "I think" is redundant. If you hate "I, for one", you probaby can't like that too much either. Maybe you were making a joke?
It's all in the chemical equations:
Fb + Nc = Le
(Fanboy) (New Console) (Liquid Explosion)
GBA is not emulated, it's native. The system contains the same processor that the GBA houses (it's used as a second coprocessor in DS games). You can't remap the GBA buttons on a GBA, so there's no real reason to expect to be able to on the DS. That being said, I do wish that X & Y had been mapped to L & R.
The common shutdowns are irritating, but no huge deal as it takes so little time for the thing to boot up.
But at least we're not having to deal with random firmware updates in order to play new games (I don't know if the games update the firmware themselves, or you have to update the firmware to play games -- I don't have, and don't desire a PSP, as it sounds like an unstable piece of garbage from a distance).
MS has promised that 360 would be able to play HD DVD's when they came out - betting the farm on the HD-DVD format. Now that Sony has garnered most of the major Hollywood studio support with Blu-Ray, consumers now have even more reason to ditch the 360 in favor of the PS3 (which will have a Blu-Ray drive).
...hype to get more people eager to get one?
We want to get started on a worldwide basis, we want to do the right thing for gamers, for our publishers and for consumers."
The right thing for gamers and consumers isn't to release something with a shortage of available machines. Part of me wonders if it's an artificial shortage... Hype it up, make people want it, then make sure everybody knows there aren't enough of them to go around world-wide. Hope that the people on the fence will rush out to get it, just in case there aren't many of them available. But then, I'm cynical.
The right thing for everybody would be to accurately scope the demand for your product, and make sure you can meet that demand. If you have enough systems to guarantee Pepsi can give out 120+ a day, chances are you can tap some sort of reserve for the parts. Get them to everybody, stop talking about the massive shortage you expect.
"It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education." -Albert Einstein
No soup for you, Microsoft.
-Eric
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
The output screen can be changed and while it might be difficult with the current design they could easily have made the DS able to remap the keys if they were designing the GBA mode with that in mind. Personally I'd like to use Y and B instead of B and A, easier to reach.
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
I was just wondering if anyone out there had read "Jennifer Government" by Max Barry http://www.maxbarry.com/jennifergovernment/ . In that book, Nike released like 2 or three pairs of their new shoe line in order to drum up insane demand and charger whatever they want. Then, when they flood the market they stage shootings in order to display the lengths people are going to go to get them. Now I'm not saying M$ is going to go out and get some hired guns, but this cycle of fiddling with supply in order to bring demand to a boil could definatly spiral out of control. Playing with people's material wants and needs can lead to some seriously unexpected consequences. And on a less serious note, what do you expect from X-Box factories in Mexico?
I am and always will be a stereotype, because who in their right mind prefers mono?
You guys are all forgetting one thing. The Xbox360 will have a WORLD WIDE RELEASE within weeks of each other!!! No other company has EVER done that with a video game console. The idea and magnitude of doing this is crazy. You guys don't remember how long it took for the PS2 to finally hit US shores, while we were all drooling over it. Microsoft is setting a huge precedence here, whether you want and Xbox360 or a PS3. Do you think that Sony can wait 6 months before releasing in the US? Not a chance. With all these stupid conspiracy theories going around, you guys forget what this means for the industry as a whole. So thank you Microsoft for kicking Sony's butt into high gear so that I can have a PS3 sooner.
Meh...more FUD from MS that there won't be enough units so all of you sheep should go out and make sure you pre-order a costly bundle from your neighborhood retailer.
The more uncertainty MS can spread about supply shortages, the better to get the masses all riled about about having to find one for little Junior this holiday season.
Explain to me what is in my comment that warranted a 'Troll' moderation?
Morrowind was one of my favorite games ever, but it's no secret that both the PC and Xbox versions crashed frequently.
That would describe me. Mr. guilty.
On the other hand, while my father was carping on my video game habits, I was trying to imagine what fuck-all a 10 year old was supposed to do otherwise. Rent a car and go on a bender in Las Vegas?
Bah.
I also like people who pause at the stereotypes of gamers while they drink themselves into an early liver transplant at overpriced clubs where they can't hear the person next to them yelling in their ears. Funk-that. Instead, let me go online and meet and converse with many interesting people from all over the world - and blow their heads off into spouty meaty gibs in WWII simulations.
It's called PROGRESS of the social condition. Love it luddite-scum!
Only place that i know that has them
Have you ever been to a turkish prison?
Bill Gates was kind enough to preorder them all for poor children in Africa.
I genuinely appreciate Microsofts attitude towards this. As a european gamer, I'm sick of Europe being the last target market (ie. getting the PSP last, Nintendos handhelds last etc). This means that the first adopters in all the markets will get theirs (mine is already preordered and the delivery is confirmed), while the second comers will get theirs after the Christmas period. It makes good business sense, and it certainly makes europeans happy :)
You can take my comment with a huge grain of salt, because I have no inside info or anything. But:
I suspect later revisions to the DS will drop the GBA cartridge support. The newest Gameboy-micro already dropped older Gameboy support. So spending a lot of time working on clever GBA button-remapping features probably isn't worth Nintendo's effort, which would be better spent trying to get as many people upgraded to DS titles (like with all the old Gameboy and NES titles re-made for the GBA).
{ - Generic Guy - }