The exhaustion of IPv4 address space
FireFury03 writes "Cisco has an interesting article talking about estimates for the exhaustion of the IPv4 address space, and the inevitable move to IPv6. It predicts that the IPv4 address space will be exhausted in 2 - 10 years and suggests that it isn't worth trying to reclaim old allocations. With the mainstream use of IPv6 now potentially within the ROI period of many products the manufacturers need to start including support, but will the ISPs roll out native IPv6 networks before they absolutely have to? IMHO, ISPs providing native IPv6 support would be a Good Thing since it opens up the door for peer-to-peer technologies such as SIP without needing nasty NAT traversal hacks, but a major stumbling block seems to be a complete lack of IPv6 support on current consumer-grade DSL routers (tunneling over IPv4 is an option but requires more technical know-how from the end user)." Of course, Cisco may have some vested interest in driving up the IPv6-compatible router sales *cough*, but the bottom line is that the transition will have to happen at some point in the near future.
Interesting, but is 2 - 10 years as precise as they can be?
8 years seems to be a long time, to me...
Most of the major ISPs have already rolled support for IPv6. They started the rollout about five years ago when the lack of IP address began to be a problem. I know for a fact that Sprint is ready to roll it, they are just waiting for other networks to support it. T-Mobile is also ready to roll it as is AOL. It's not really a big deal. It's already been done. Everyone is just waiting to push the big red button and turn on the support. Hell, even Windows supports it.
Why don't more routers that are sold today tout their IPv6 compatibility? Are they not compatible with the new protocol? If not why not?
NATs at home can only hold IPv4 together for so much longer. Soon a killer ap will come out that just doesn't want to be NATted, and the whole Internet using public will demand direct addressing [at least they'll demand a solution that requires direct IP addressing].
Saskboy's blog is good. 9 out of 10 dentists agree.
I remember reading a while ago that NAT actually turned out to be better than IPv6 by virtue of it "solving" the limited number of addresses problem and simultaneously providing a defence against simple hacking attempts by hiding your real IP address.
Can anyone explain whether this is true or not and why?
Argh.
"and suggests that it isn't worth trying to reclaim old allocations."
Isn't worth it to whom?
"Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus."
You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. -- Harlan Ellison
Will *BSD die before the switchover to IPv6? Maybe a good Slashdot poll:
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
[ ] Microsoft
[ ] I don't know what IPv6 is, but I'll post anyway
[ ] Cowboy Neal encodes my packets
I'd say this is going to be a huge test of the internet and all the various pieces.
Can IPv4 and IPv6 coexist? When do the root servers transfer over? (have they already?) If they can co-exist, what's the motivation for *everyone* to switch?
What happens to smaller countries that don't have the resources to make hardware changes to keep up to date.
From a laymen's perspetive this seems a lot like Y2K in terms of the scope of changes required.
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
2-12 years is as precise an answer as Rummy can give about the Iraq insurgency lasting. If it's good enough for the main stream media, it's good enough for average joe six pack me.
Dick "Netcraft" Cheney: I think IPv4 is in its last throes.
Saskboy's blog is good. 9 out of 10 dentists agree.
It's a bureaucratic one. The manufacturers aren't going to spend time and money to make their products until it either makes business sense (Cisco, Microsoft) or they are forced to (TV stations that are having to support HDTV).
Evil Overlord Rule #86. I will make sure that my doomsday device is up to code and properly grounded.
TFA didn't help me get much of a clue. I tried reading it, and I said to myself: "aren't there one trillion possible IP addresses, available in principle? (minus 1)" just because of the 12-digit IP addresses i'm used to.
/8 in IPv4 address terminology) were supported, led to some institutions that were involved in the development of the Internet having disproportionally large allocations. MIT, for example, has an entire /8 block allocated to it (224 addresses, about 0.39% of the whole internet address space) and various US Department of Defense agencies have several such blocks."
"The IPv4 address space has 32 bits, limiting it to an absolute maximum of 232 (roughly 4.3 billion) possible addresses. For both administrative and technical reasons (the latter in large part being related to routing), IPv4 addresses are allocated in blocks which are restricted to sizes which are powers of 2; this leads to many addresses being unused at any given time. In addition to this, substantial parts of the IP address space are not easily usable because of early technical decisions reserving them for private network use, loopback addresses, multicast, and unspecified future uses, which has resulted in some of these limitations being programmed into devices; working around these limitations will require substantial amounts of re-engineering to increase the amount of available address space. Finally, some of the IPv4 address allocations made early in the development of the Internet (in the 1970s), when only blocks of 224 possible addresses (called a
THANK YOU wikipedia.
Besides the huge amount of fully routable IP addresses IPv6 will open up, what are the benefits to the average end-user? I mean, will anyone accessing a 4 Mb cable connection through NAT really notice any difference by upgrading? Even large corporations, who also use private IP address space, (as far as I know) don't need fully routable addresses for every machine. So, what exactly is the major benefit? Just asking...
It will be interesting (and perhaps this has already been all worked out, I haven't looked into it much) how they allocate the IPv6 addresses. It seems fairly clear now that the life of the v4 address space was definitely shortened -- although by how much is not clear -- because of the very large chunks of space that were handed out and never fully utilized. (Class A allocations; IIRC IBM had a massive one and I'm not sure ever used much of it, and I'm sure they're not the only one.) Of course this wasn't viewed as a problem at the time because there were so many more addresses than anyone imagined there would ever be devices.
I just wonder how we're going to resist the temptation to do the same thing again, now that we have another glut of address space. On one hand we don't want to end up with vacant blocks of addresses, but we don't want to be too niggardly about it either, or else individual static addresses won't ever 'trickle down' to end users and we'll be stuck with the same mess of NAT traversals and subnets that we have now.
I'm sure that this issue has been addressed (or will be addressed) but I'm just curious how the IANA will find the 'balance point' between assigning enough high-level blocks to make sure end users can get static global addresses, while not overassigning. Perhaps there should be some sort of a periodic review process for high-level address block assignments to see how fully utilized they are, and either assign an entity more addresses or reallocate underutilized resources.
"Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
in 2 to 10 years lots of things will happen. some people will die, some will be born...
aw, c'mon...
in a month europe, brasil and a few other nations will force a global netsplit, so we'll have 2 "internets". double the address space for the same price, so this prediction is not only imprecise, it's useless!
my R$0,02.
What ? Me, worry ?
I have my IPv4 address. Why should I worry? Perhaps I can even sell mine to the highest bidder when the shite hits the fan.
Hell, maybe the address shortage will create this crazy new "Road Warrior" world where IP addresses are a rare commodity and people have to fight each other with mad overclocked computers just to get some packets routed. And then Mel Gibson can play an ex-help-desk-guy-turned-hero whose Mac was killed by software pirates in the movie version.
All I know is, I'm training my kids how to catch sharp boomerangs.
if(!toilet_paper) roll.replace(new roll);
I'd love to know the zombienet operators' take on the conversion to IPV6.
Lacking <sarcasm> tags,
Perhaps this is an AskSlashdot, but who is making a decent(affordable) IPv6 router for the home? And where can one locate documents on SIP/RTP in IPv6 land?
lick the cancle button (at least thats what our Chinese QA says)
fe80::02d0:c1ff:fe5c:0010/10
2002:c0a8:1122::5efe:0a01:0101/48
2001:7f8:2:c01f::2
I mean, DNS goes a long way towards turning that hex into something memorable, but as a sysadmin it does NOT make my life easier. Let's reclaim some of thoseI've been playing with IPv6 off and on since 2000. My current IPv6 plant incarnation is a Cisco 2610XM tunneling traffic from btexact (best tunnel broker if you want to play), a Cisco 1605 that is sometimes online, and a FreeBSD box. I don't have a site up this time, just taking it slow and playing, doing this mostly because the CCIE lab has started requiring IPv6.
The transport works just fine, the application support is still a hassle. If its a barrier for me after five years of dinking and nothing left to do Cisco wise except complete my CCIE
Moving to IPv6 from IPv4 is as much a change in mindset as moving from IPX to IPv4 was
I am very easy to get along with, but I don't have time to waste being nice to people who are being stupid. -Theo
Don't use real IP addresses after the gateway. I do IP
MASQUERADING. I get only 1 ip address from my provider.
I've got a wireless webcam, a zaurus wireless pda, company assigned laptop, my linux development desktop computer, my Apple G3 running LinuxPPC (my gateway, web, imap server),
My oldest son't room with a Linux based AMD 64bit server, a
mini mac, a sharp zaurus, my 2 youngest boys room and thier
computer and a laptop up in thier room, my hombrew robot,
a hacked compaq IA-1 that runs linux that I use to monitor my firewall, email, etc.. All these devices get to the outside world on 1 ip address. I have multiple servers that
are accessed by the outside world via port redirection as
well.
My point is that we should be tighter with ip address allocation.
In general, corporate networks today are so completely firewalled that they might as well be behind NAT, and some (bless 'em) are -- Intel for one uses nonroutable addresses internally.
Lacking <sarcasm> tags,
So, today you have to pay extra to get a fixed IP. I can understand that, somewhat, because there is a limited number of IP-numbers.
Now, if we have an unlimited number of IP-numbers, then I will be pissed if they expect me to pay extra for a fixed IP. What is their explanation and motivation for a higher price for a Fixed IP?
So maybe one of the reasons that they are trying to delay the introduction of IPV6 is because they know they will no longer get the extra income from customers that are paying for a fixed IP.
The Internet is full. Go Away!!!
To make most efficient use of the 4.3 trillion possible IPv4 addresses, all we need is one giant honking DHCP server for the world to use. Of course, the USA should run it forever.
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
If the IP 4 address space was properly allocated then we could probably get another ten years out of the system. We have for example BBN occupying three class A blocks and HP taking another two or three. Set against this is the continent of Africa which is assigned one block.
Ed Almos
The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws. - Tacitus, 56-120 A.D.
I have worked in the internet service business for over a decade now. I have seen a lot of things come and go, and a lot of predictions about when we would run out of IP space.
The bottom line is that the only people who realy WANT a rollout of IPv6 is Cisco. Why? Because the vast majority of their existing installed routers will not support IPv6 with anywhere near the same feature set and packet rate as those routers can handle with IPv4. Thus, IPv6 means people upgrading equipment that isn't really deficient.
Most people have no concept of:
a) How much IP space we have left.
b) How extremely inefficent we have been with a large percentage of the address space.
c) How much assigned, announced, and routed space is completely unused.
d) How much the rate of growth has flattened.
e) How wrong every prediction about when we run out of IP space has been thus far.
If you search the nanog archives, you'll see posts by myself going back many years stating essentially "Somebody tell me why we need IPv6 again?"
Do not hold your breath. We're 10-15 years away from IPv6, because it will take an even larger gross expenditure for the service providers to upgrade to support IPv6 than it did for the broadcast industry to upgrade to HDTV.
This is what industries that rely on revenue growth do when their customer growth flattens. They invent a new widget, come up with reasons why everybody needs it, market it, and hopefully everybody buys the product all over again. IPv6 is admittedly a good bit different; it was created by geeks in attempt to solve a perceived problem. However, it was siezed upon by the router vendors as a future "upgrade when growth flattens" path.
Don't buy into the hype. IPv4 is here to stay for a long time. Even when IPv6 starts to have some decent degree of market penetration, you will always find most of the devices on the net are IPv4 behind IPv6 to IPv4 NATs.
Anyhow, I myself was curious about if/when IPv6 would be rolled out. One of the talks was about how to deal with IPv4 space running out, and a lot of the talk revolved around such things as multiple web sites running on the same IP (which was very uncommon then) and other ways to use less address space. Some audience members gave other suggestions for conserving IP space such as ways to use Network Address Translation to limit public IP use. I would say the feeling in the hall was that this was not a problem, and that people had to go the route of IP sharing, and aside from the need for more IP sharing, everyone pretty much liked the situation as it was, which was in contrast to the prevailing attitude in the world outside the hall. One audience member rose his hand and said, "What about IPv6?" The response to this was the entire audience broke into laughter - it was the funniest thing they had heard that week. After that I began thinking about IPv6 more along the lines of projects such as MBONE (anyone remember the hooplah over that years ago?). Not that IPv6 will never be implemented, but this story that IPv6 was needed straightaway could have been written 8 years ago. I haven't seen much headway in it in the past 8 years, except for products promising they were IPv6 compatible, just in case. Not that IPv6 will never be rolled out on a large scale, but I'm not holding my breath.
I don't think that IPv6 will see the end of NAT at all. NAT is a very quick and covenient technique for consumer DSL routers to use.
/28), even with the increased address space. And even when you do have multiple addresses allocated, what about the users that have one more machine than usable addresses? Small company networks etc? Now matter how many addressed IPv6 supplies, we will run out eventually, and much sooner than we expect.
For a start, a lot of ISPs only offer one address, partly to encourage people to buy more expensive packages with multiple addresses, and NAT transparently solves that issue.
There is no reason to assume that increased avilability of addresses will cause ISPs to offer more addresses to consumers - after all if they anticipate 100,000 single PC broadband connections, they are going to find it hard to get approval for 800,000 addresses (to allow a
Also low end ADSL connections often force NAT upon a user, allowing the vendor to create a differentiator between it's commercial and domestic offerings.
In the end NAT offers security, independence of allocated IP space to available addresses, simplified network management with an excellent delineation point between vendor and consumer (the ISP dosen't have to worry about what is inside the end user network), and a reasonable form of security. It's great for a small internet connected network.
That was my "link local ID"
I have had 10.x.x.x addresses for a long time and I am gonna keep them. You varmits need to find your own, your not taking away my net addresses. Same goes for the 192.168.X net. That's mine too, it's just my summer home.
Sorry about the writing. Robot fingers, you know? Cliff Steele in DOOM PATROL #23
is home nat routers. They effecively prevent you using either 6to4 or native IPv6 unless the nat router itself explicitly supports it.
and they are effectively closed devices so adding support requires the manufactueres cooperation.
note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
oh great, now we got to worry exploding IPs and routers. People shooting spam at us from every direction. You never know when your gonna step on a 419 and end up buying the "low rate M0RTgaT3".
Maybe we better give control to the UN after all.
Sorry about the writing. Robot fingers, you know? Cliff Steele in DOOM PATROL #23
The EU is so hot and fired up to wrench control of the intarweb from the US, so let THEM deal with it. If we can't be trusted with the DNS system, seems logical to me that the EU would be much better off orchestrating and paying for the upgrade to IPV6.
-Those who dance are considered insane by those who can't hear the music.
Let's not forget that any rollout of IPv6 aware devices is going to be plauged by patent litigation. Turns out that just before its release, and lot of "Intellectual Property" "Firms" simply guessed the IPv6 standard, or parts of it, and bought^H^H^H^H^H^Happlied for corresponding patents from the USPTO rubber stamping office.
That means for around the next 20 years we'll have the whole RSA debaucle played all over again in the IPv6 sphere. Expect to see "Innovative Ideas" lawsuits gouging money from OS makers and especially makers of routers(esp consumer grade) and other networking devices.
Look on the bright side thought. With any luck, we'll run out of IPv4 addresses before the litigation finishes, and then someone really WILL have to do something about it!
May the Maths Be with you!
There are *millions* of Linksys, Netgear, DLink, routers and access points out there. Most of which don't support IPv6. And I doubt these vendors are going to update all that firmware.
Nor will consumers be into throwing out old hardware "to get more IP space"... that's not exactly going to work (marketing wise).
Nor will people with old OS versions, or other odd devices (IP cameras, etc. etc.).
IMHO this will need government pressure, similar to the digital switchover for TV. Some sort of a date for compliance of devices, and a clean switchover date.
But will this increase the depletion of IPv4, or just result in home NAT starting to support the use of CIDR/16 chunks of of 172.16/12 instead of CIDR/24 chunks of 192.168/16? As an example, my Zyxel DSL Modem was pretty trivial to switch over to using 10/8 on the inside its NAT, and would have been easier if it was a model that the manufacturer intended to allow a normal sized NAT pool. (The Zyxel firmware tries to prevent use of spaces above CIDR/30 for non-router hardware.) While my five-year old router isn't thrilled at this sort of thing, my 1 yr old Belkin router is completely content with any IP space I want to assign it.
So the question is, how many of these devices will have Internet (as opposed to LAN) VISIBILITY (as opposed to merely connectivity) be a feature?
//Information does not want to be free; it wants to breed.
The only admins who don't like IPv6 are those who are either ignorant of the way it works, or who are too hooked on being worked to death. Both need help, treatment and beer.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
I'm using 6to4 right now, but it's not good enough! One of the greatest benefits of IPv6, true multicast support, does not work, since the underlying IPv4 layer does not support multicast.
Many applications could take advantage of multicast if it were available.
Some examples:
Bittorrent is a cheesy IPv4 emulation of multicast.
Game servers could multicast 'common' data and save roughly 50% of the total bandwidth used.
Mirror sites could multicast their updates. Debian, Redhat, and other mirrors would use a fraction of their current bandwidth.
If you went the bittorrent way, files could be sent via looping multicast, no more slashdotting the Id games servers.
Basically, any duplicate TCP/IP streams could be a single stream that gets replicated at the router. I want it now!
Think of it, even spam could be more efficient with multicast emails!
Shae Erisson - ScannedInAvian.com
Interesting, but is 2 - 10 years as precise as they can be?
8 years seems to be a long time, to me.
Yep, and thirty years ago they said that we would be out of oil in twenty years. Go figure...
Click here or here.
Sure, the hardware /supports/ IPv6, but if you try to do both IPv4 and IPv6 on the hardware, you take the load way up.
As long as IPv6 isn't required to get everywhere, they can save money by using smaller/fewer routers to do IPv4 work.
In terms of just memory, you almost double the use by having a separate table for IPv4 and IPv6.
We had an IT person in our london office at a previous job. When I was out there, I had mentioned that they were running out of IP's for the office and we'd have to assign a new block. She pulls out her spreadsheet which is fully poplated up to something like .253, and proceeds to show me all the empty space up to .999.
.255. We should just all follow her lead and go to .999. It's like a network that goes to 11 man.
Obviously we are underutilizing the ipv4 space, no one seems to use anything above
Need Free Juniper/NetScreen Support? JuniperForum
I recently asked my cable ISP what their IPv6 gateway was. They said, "We don't provide that service. Maybe you should upgrade to a business account."
They only offer multiple client services on business accounts, so technically I'm already in violation of their rules because of using a router and NAT even though I run no "server", just a couple of PCs.
Yes, Cisco has a vested interest in replacing all those legacy IPv4-only cigar-box routers like mine. Yes, my IP provider would love a reason to raise rates or otherwise push me into a "business" account (and thereby charge me more).
Fact is, I won't be buying a new router, I'll just recycle one PC into place as a gateway and continue to hide behind NAT because I don't care to pay business rates for home PC use.
No matter how much I dislike IPv6 because of its "second system" bloat, I have yet to find a free IPv6 tunnel provider. Yes, it's my fault, people tell me they're out there I just cannot find them.
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
A hack is just an idiom waiting for wider use.
Yup, this is a big issue. People want to have the liberty to do what they want in their own home. After all when you put a nail into your own wall, do you have to phone up the regional governing entity or pay to do so? Why should we have to do the same for our private computers?
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
Try a Cisco 87x router. These are sold in the UK, are fully IPv6, provide 4 10/100 ports in case your switch is v4 only, offer WLAN 802.11b/g option (does this carry v6? i dunno) and have lots of other nice features as well. Haven't had time to check compatability. Expensive - ish, see : http://www.broadbandbuyer.co.uk/Shop/ShopDetail.as p?ProductID=2277&CategoryID=325&ShopGroupID=78 (the top model in the series) but available now.
p roducts_data_sheet0900aecd8028a976.html
Data sheet : http://cisco.com/en/US/products/hw/routers/ps380/
IPv6 addressing architecture
IPv6 name resolution
IPv6 statistics
IPv6 translation-transport packets between IPv6-only and IPv4-only endpoints
ICMPv6
IPv6 DHCP
Until the ISP backhaul is routing IPv6 it's still not native all the way, so A&A or whoever your ISP is doesn't. Ask for a allocation and tunnel to the 6bone. Until not so long ago NTT UK offered ranges and free peering, and there were other free v6 peering intiatives. coupl'a years since i cared much about this so forgive me if anything changed (save the ready availability of IPv6 capable routers). Hopefully POPs with lots of LLU will be the first to go native in the UK, so we can have v6 and >=8Mbps to cope with all that traffic from my fridge, cooker, clock, toilet, kitchen drawer, hallway light . . .
As long as IPv6 isn't required to get everywhere, they can save money by using smaller/fewer routers to do IPv4 work.
I think that rather depends on how much of the network is IPv6 only - if there's a large chunk that's only on IPv6 then refusing to support it would be like telling the customers "we've decided to not route any of your traffic to the US anymore because that's cheaper for us". Customers would be leaving them in droves - they don't need to understand _why_ parts of the internet are inaccessible, it will just become known that this ISP is crap because they have "firewalled" off part of the internet in the interests of cost saving.
http://blog.nexusuk.org
They built this thing called "the Internet" that you might have heard of?
Testing this amazing new widget called a "router" required a fair amount of address space at one time.
Well, OK, actually they called it a "gateway" but that means something else now.
It's funny to see that the people who keep shaking their heads left and right when "IPv6" is mentioned are mainly ALL in the U.S. Fact: China, Japan, Korea and MUCH of Europe will move to IPv6 first...and much sooner no matter what the U.S thinks. Control is the issue, those moving to v6 see it as an opportunity to move away from having to call a U.S. organization to get address allocation. Also..since DNS becomes REALLY important with v6 (try to memorize IPv6 addressess..) Europe could use it as a means of setting up their own root DNS servers to take control of the future address space. Whoever has the DNS servers that people use will get control, and if Europe/Asia defines that first they will have control.
Sorry to be a ludite but this is really not an issue. Greanted we're placing more devices on-line, but so what? If I need to telnet into my toaster, I can just have my router forward a particular toaster port to it. He doesn't NEED his own IP. Similarly, do all the 1000-plus apartments in my building need to have separate IPs? Why? Most people read e-mail and look at websites, they don't need to host anything. We can all be on a LAN with a single internet IP, just like resnet in college was. Why not? if somebody needs an IP they can have their service set up that way but most of us don't give a shit.
I know, I know, there are more people in the world than there are IP addresses or whatever, but so what? I'd say that billions of people don't have a shot at owning a PC in their life anyway. Those who do can probably share IPs too.
It's a made-up crisis. There's nothing wrong with IPv6 but there's absolutely no dire need for it.
Ecce Europa - Web Design for Business
I mostly work in tech pubs (when I'm working), and this has been a constant issue for me. At some badly managed companies, I've seen engineers add SuperKewl Features to the product without authorization, thinking they can just throw them over the wall to the customers and forget about them. Wrong. I have to document their damn features, and that costs. If I don't document their damn features, then tech support has to handle the resulting calls, and that costs even more. And if tech support tries to tell a big customer, "Oh, that's an unofficial feature, we don't support it," that really costs!