Playstation 3 Soon Into Production

Roy van Rijn writes "According to Forbes, the Commercial Times reported that Taiwanese ASUSTeK Computer Inc. will be delivering PlayStation 3 consoles to Sony starting this month. The news comes amid concerns that Sony may not have enough Cell and RSX chips to meet production goals of 2 million units for launch. The report also states that, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, also a Taiwanese company, will soon begin making the PlayStation 3 consoles for Sony too. Total monthly shipments from manufacturers are expected to be 200,000 units per month."

Comments

Don't do the math

[davevt5]

If you do the math you're probably thinking that means there will only be 1.6 million units ready to go by launch (assuming both Asustek and Hon Hai each hit 200k/mo.) The article goes on to state that the production will increase to two million units by October -- at least for Asustek.

The question is, will there be enough cell processors to stuff into these boxes with yields being so aweful?

Re:Don't do the math

[sane?]

Nah, the question is if there will be enough customers for it to make a difference.

If Sony pull this one off and don't have a damp squib launch someone will be due a huge bonus. I don't bother with consoles and even I am interested by the Wii if the price is right.

Re:Don't do the math

[Kjella]

If you do the math you're probably thinking that means there will only be 1.6 million units ready to go by launch

And if you believe slashdot, that'd be 1,599,998 too many and both who want it are idiots. I think it'll be more even than that - it has the brand name, tons of people have PS2 games, it has a HD-capable player built in and so on. Wii is probably very cool for the right games, but for some games a keyboard/mouse, gamepad, joystick or steering wheel is the best. Not every game is going to benefit from it. And we have of course Microsoft, who'll continue to drop money into the Xbox whether you want them to or not, and money does buy you exclusive titles and the like. I look forward to finally seeing all three in action - hype is really tiresome.

Re:Don't do the math

[andrewman327]

Equally important, will the supply chain be able to deliver all of the parts in time? After all, what good is rapid manufacturing if you cannot deliver. I am sure that no matter what happens in terms of cell chips and the like, there will still be a shortage during launch. Perhaps the company wants it that way, as it might raise interest in the product.

The media will hype this as a good sign for Sony using the generic and technologically unaware phrases they always use:
"Well Jim, the PS3, as Sony has named it, is flying off the shelves. They just can't keep them in stock. This next generation gaming console is moving straight from truck to customer."

Re:Don't do the math

[MaWeiTao]

Four or five years ago I had the chance to visit one of the first few semiconductor foundries producing 12-inch wafers.

It was explained to me how yields are always pretty bad during the ramping up phase but once things get going the number of defects decrease dramatically. I don't recall the specific details or how long this phase lasts, but I'm not surprised that there would be problems leading up to actual production. That's kind of the point of this process, to identify as many problems as possible beforehand.

They may have problems early into the production run, but given the complexity of the PS3 I expect Sony will have numerous other issues to contend with beyond defective chips. I expect problems as bad, if not worse than the Xbox360's overheating power supply.

Re:Don't do the math

[k_187]

yes, Sony will sell more than 2 PS3s

Re:Don't do the math

[twistedsymphony]

Yeah they had the same goals for the PS2 at it's launch... and then the Emotion engine had yield problems. On top of the question of yields I wonder if the market is really as excited about this console as people are assuming it is.

Sure there are die-hard, rabid, Playstation fanatics who would still buy one if the price was your first born. But if you look at the fact that Sony has always had lame launch titles, the PSP's consumer excitement around it's launch could be described as "apathetic" with the die hard fans camping out for a product that didn't even sell out.... Root kit lost a lot of fans... as did Sony's double talk arrogance and bad mouthing of their competition, and lets not forget the clear rip-offs of Nintendo's Wii-mote and Microsoft's Guide button, and perhaps most importantly THE PRICE. Heck the reason for the high price was because of the Blu-Ray drive, and reviews thus far have shown that HD-DVD is stomping all over Blu-Ray. HD-DVD has 2 layer discs (15gig per layer/30gig total) and uses the awesome VC-1 codec. Blu-Ray can't get good yields on dual layer discs and even single layer discs have yield problems forcing them to only be able to use 80% of it... ~20gig. Not to mention they're using the woefully outdated MPEG2 codec and most reviews have said that some of the movies DVD counterparts look better then the Blu-Ray versions.. Even early Blu-Ray players can only read single layer discs, so will the PS3 be stuck to only reading single layer discs as well? NOT GOOD FOR PS3 SALES particularly if Sony was banking on people buying it as a cheap Blu-Ray player. nobody wants another UMD movie format.

I think low yield might be the least of their problems. Every day I see more and more of the die-hard Playstation fans going from "of course I'm getting one" too "I'll wait and see" or in some cases "I decided to get an 360/Wii instead".

Heck you can tell how much the fan base has soured from the dramatically decreasing number of ignorant and belligerent fanboy comments to PS3 news.

Re:Don't do the math

[avirrey]

Good god if this wasn't filled with propaganda and superflous adjectives. Cite the credible sources for 'HD is stopping over Blu-ray'. For those who didn't read the Cell Yield article and haven't the faintest clue about semiconductor manufacturing: Yields always start out low, and even more so for Processors. What I will say is stop looking at redundancy logic the end all to yield improvement since this was a known from the beginning to be required. If their yields are at 10-20% they have more on their hands than redundant logic. There are in many cases issues with the test simulation software that is buggy meaning there is nothing wrong with the processor itself. In my experience, at launch, test bugs account for about 60% of fallout. If this scenario holds, then retesting the processor will make it pass. The number I would be looking for is "How many processors are not saleable percentage wise?" I don't remember the price of these processors, maybe someone can post, but test equipment can be fairly affordable relative to the price of a processor, this certainly should not be the bottleneck.

Re:Don't do the math

[CastrTroy]

Yes, but the Wii still has ports for the old school GC controllers, so if games just want to use standard controllers, they can do that. The controllers are already pretty cheap ($20 US), and will probably get cheaper once there's 2 systems that support them. So, for games that don't care about or don't need the new controller functionality, they can still use the old controllers.

Re:Don't do the math

[Borland]

Y'know, I can't refute your logic, but it is still flawed. What people say, and what people do, are two separate things. Plus, you're assuming that initial production problems will continue for the life of the product.

In addition, you cite the PS2 for two major problems the PS3 is facing: Initial production problems and low quality launch titles. The problem with using that logic is that you are making a comparison to one of the most successful consoles on the market. A console that is still outselling the 360.

If the PS3 is facing doom, why isn't there a sharp spike in 360 sales? Everyone who thinks the PS3 is crap but wants power should be flocking to Microsoft's banner. I have no current sales figures at hand, but the last time I looked I didn't see the 360 even beating the last generation console.

But as I said earlier, I cannot refute your post. Everything you say may come to pass and the PS3 will dive like Enron stock. But I think you base your conclusion on insufficient evidence.

Re:Don't do the math

[thatguywhoiam]

I feel the need to call bullshit on a few of these....

Sure there are die-hard, rabid, Playstation fanatics who would still buy one if the price was your first born. But if you look at the fact that Sony has always had lame launch titles, the PSP's consumer excitement around it's launch could be described as "apathetic" with the die hard fans camping out for a product that didn't even sell out....

Its true that the DS is handily beating the PSP in sales, especially since the DS Lite launched; but apathetic is alittle strong. The PSP is selling about half as well as the DS. That's still something like 200k units per month.

Root kit lost a lot of fans...

Rootkit fiasco lost a lot of nerd fans. Jo Q Public still has no clue. They don't even know what a rootkit is.

... as did Sony's double talk arrogance and bad mouthing of their competition, and lets not forget the clear rip-offs of Nintendo's Wii-mote and Microsoft's Guide button,

Arrogance: check.

Wii rip-off: undecided. Its a natural progression, the tilt sensor they added, if you ask me. More likely this feature was bumped up in priority when Sony saw the impression the Wii remote made. I can see that one either way to be honest. This is sort of like saying that every single digital music player is ripping off the iPod.

MS 'guide' button: what are you talking about? I don't even know what this is. Hardly a feature that's touted as interesting, at any rate.

and perhaps most importantly THE PRICE.

Price is bad, I agree. Way bad in comparison to the other consoles, specifically. Of course, we don't actually know the final price yet.

Heck the reason for the high price was because of the Blu-Ray drive, and reviews thus far have shown that HD-DVD is stomping all over Blu-Ray.

Really! I'd like to see that. Cite a source?

HD-DVD has 2 layer discs (15gig per layer/30gig total) and uses the awesome VC-1 codec.

So? Blu-ray has a max storage of 200 gigs, over six layers. The codec is irrelevant; you can write a Blu-ray disc with MPEG-2, or the awesome VC-1 codec, OR the 'even awesomer' AVC codec. HD-DVD can only use MS-approved codecs and by the way, that has DRM built-in to the wrapper. (H.264/AVC does not necessarily have this stipulation (weak praise I know), but ALL MS codecs will have to deal with this.)

Blu-Ray can't get good yields on dual layer discs and even single layer discs have yield problems forcing them to only be able to use 80% of it... ~20gig.

I've seen this mentioned nowhere, and your use of the word 'yields' for optical media is kind of suspect. Source?

Not to mention they're using the woefully outdated MPEG2 codec and most reviews have said that some of the movies DVD counterparts look better then the Blu-Ray versions..

Yeah you said that before, and its still completely wrong. Check yer facts jack.

Even early Blu-Ray players can only read single layer discs, so will the PS3 be stuck to only reading single layer discs as well? NOT GOOD FOR PS3 SALES particularly if Sony was banking on people buying it as a cheap Blu-Ray player. nobody wants another UMD movie format.

Pure speculation and unfounded at that. UMD is a different animal.

I think low yield might be the least of their problems. Every day I see more and more of the die-hard Playstation fans going from "of course I'm getting one" too "I'll wait and see" or in some cases "I decided to get an 360/Wii instead".

Feel free to get up from Slashdot and leave the PC for a little while, your impression might change.

Re:Don't do the math

[zoney_ie]

I don't see the cause for the uncertainty as to what will happen with the PS3. Sure the Xbox360 has been out a while now, but nevertheless, there are many parallels with the PS2 launch.

People seem to have short memory spans in recollecting how much the release price of the PS2 seemed when it came out, how limited the games were at the beginning, how it was probably a less powerful console than the Xbox, etc.

It's pretty much a direct replay. The PS3 will sell about the same numbers, it'll go well over in Japan, and do OK elsewhere until Sony can decrease the prices due to cheaper components. And there'll be more games by then.

As for DVD with PS2, and Blu-ray with PS3. Again, I'd still say it's a rerun. There's not as much incentive on the face of it for consumers to go from DVD to Blu-ray, but the clincher is HDTV. People are slowly but surely switching to HDTV, and as such, it is inevitable that there will be a migration from DVDs. What they'll migrate to is still an open question, but having Blu-ray on PS3 (and again, cheaper than or comparable to standalone players) does give that format a leg up over HD-DVD (and encourages faster migration from DVD).

Anyways, it'll be fun to watch. I'll happily take a PS3 if given one, but unlike last time, I don't have a 21st birthday in hand. I suppose I could get married and put it on the wedding list this time round.

Re:Don't do the math

[timeOday]

You didn't even mention the PS3's stupendous. price. Money talks, and the PS3 is just too expensive.

Re:Don't do the math

[twistedsymphony]

I apologize for not citing sources for the HD-DVD over Blu-Ray debate. I figured it was common knowledge at this point, what with the AV forums buzzing about it.

The whole thing about Cell yields isn't that they're low (of course we expect them to be low when starting production) it's that its look like they'reFAR LOWER THEN EXPECTED.

And since you asked, I don't have a link but IIRC the last cost estimated the Cell and RSX chips cost Sony ~$110 a piece. No idea about how the RSX yeilds are. I'd almost be more conserned about RAM yeilds though.

Re:Don't do the math

[Mattintosh]

If the PS3 is facing doom, why isn't there a sharp spike in 360 sales?

Because you're making the same flawed assumption as millions (if not billions) of humans do for just about everything else - that there are only two sides and that one of them must "win".

It's human nature, and human laziness. The mind simplifies every situation to a binary true/false, yes/no, on/off, right/left, up/down, good/bad decision in order to keep from having to do analog comparisons requiring much deeper thought processes. So, in this case, it's Sony PS3/Microsoft Xbox360. This is an incorrect view for several reasons. First of all, Nintendo is making a strong showing in this round. There are clearly 3 (if not more!) players. Second of all, since the market we're looking at is a "luxury goods" market (you can live without video games), there's no guaranteed "winner". Everybody could just shrug and say "meh" and not buy anything, at which point Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo all lose money.

IIRC, this is known as a "false dichotomy", but I'm no philosopher/psychologist, and therefore I make no guarantees about it.

What I do know for a fact is this: I'm going to buy a Wii. I am not going to buy either an Xbox360 or a PS3.

Re:Don't do the math

[Borland]

Because the price is irrelevant right now. If the games are equal in quality between the 360 and the PS3 a year from now, then the price will be important. If Blu-Ray tanks and goes the way of Betamax, then price will be important. If the PS3 holds a minority share of game content, then price will be important.

If the games are superior on the PS3 a year from now, then price will be less relevant. If Blu-Ray achieves even modest success on the market, then price will less relevant. If the PS3 holds the PS2 library percentage then the price will be less relevant.

The list of "ifs" go on.

The problem with this debate is that both sides are taking the best case and worst case outcomes to predict thier console's success. The only indicator I see is that the PS2 is still, in June, outselling the XBox360. Why have the masses not flocked to the 360 banner after all these Sony snafus?

The only reason I can see, is that no one has really given up on the commercial success of the PS3. Look, the PS3 detractors may well be right. But the only hard numbers in evidence do not support those conclusions yet. For cripes sake, at least wait until the first month's sales are out in November.

Re:Don't do the math

[twistedsymphony]

Well the PS2 launched at the same price as the PS1: $300. In addition to that the PS2's only competition was the hanging by a thread Sega Dreamcast, which was following up one of the worst selling consoles in their history. MS wasn't even on the radar during the PS2 launch, and neither was Nintendo. PS2's only competition was the Dreamcast, a great console but poorly marketed, with little to no 3rd party support and following up one of the WORST selling consoles of the previous generation. Again again the PS2 wasn't expensive. It was the same price their previous console launched at, it wasn't surprising at all.

The PS3 doesn't have a market in their favor this time. Towards the end of the Xbox 1's life it was selling just as many units as the PS2 on a day to day basis, hardly a comparison to the brow-beating the Saturn got in comparison to the PS1.

As for the PS2 outselling the 360... need I remind you that the PS1 outsold the PS2 for the first year of the PS2's life, uptake on expensive new consoles is slow and it's expected that last gen consoles will still sell very well into the start of the following generation. I think it's actually impressive that the 360 is selling ALMOST AS MANY units As the PS2 considering it's more then twice the price.

I'd have to disagree, the PS2 launched with one non-competitor (the dreamcast) and 2 distant non-competitors (the unproven Xbox from that crap company MS and Nintendo's un-inventive Gamecube). The PS3 by comparison has a very serious competitor with a head start in the (Xbox 360) and they also have another very serious contender with the Nintendo Wii...

Re:Don't do the math

[ichigo 2.0]

Did you actually get modded insightful for that nugget of joy? I guess some of the moderators actually thought that they would only sell 2 PS3s. I guess I'll take a karma hit from that aforementioned moderator, but that has to be the dumbest insightful mod I've seen to date. :P

Re:Don't do the math

[Dan Ost]

Whether it is too expensive really depends on what you
think you're getting for your money. A console that can
play the entire back catalog of PS1 and PS2 games, in
addition to new games made specifically for it certainly
has appeal to people like me who have older consoles
that will need to be replaced in order to play the
game library they've acquired over the years and who like
picking up old games for a couple of bucks (lots of older
games are more fun that these pretty new games).

If I decide that a $600 PS3 has more value for me than
a $400 Xbox360, I'll buy it when I'm ready to upgrade
consoles. I'm not a poor college kid and so an extra $200
for a one-time purchase won't even show up on my financial
radar.

I suspect there are lots of people like me who have decent
jobs and are willing to pay for the product they want rather
than settle for a cheaper product that isn't what they want.

Re:Don't do the math

[Anonymous Coward]

yes, there are more than two idiots

Re:Don't do the math

[samkass]

Your HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray "common knowledge" links are amazingly inaccurate. ("Common knowledge" is very often not "correct knowledge".) Blu-Ray and HD-DVD support *exactly* the same codecs, so image and sound quality is going to be *exactly* the same. Blu-Ray has a lot more content coming out for it, since twice as many studios are producing for it. And the PS3 will be cheaper than most HD-DVD players. By the end of this Christmas shopping season, I'd be surprised if HD-DVD has anyone still believing in its long-term viability. Articles like the ones you cited, of course, are largely fueled by Microsoft money/fandom and anti-Sony propaganda, not reality.

Re:Don't do the math

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

"If the PS3 is facing doom, why isn't there a sharp spike in 360 sales? Everyone who thinks the PS3 is crap but wants power should be flocking to Microsoft's banner."

A.) Nintendo's the popular rival right now.
B.) The 360's library isn't exactly stunning right now. Part of the hooplah over the PS3 is the expectation it'll have the same sort of library the PS2 did.

Re:Don't do the math

[chaim79]

Sure there are die-hard, rabid, Playstation fanatics who would still buy one if the price was your first born.

You mean the price has gone up??? Damn... better start procreating if I want one...

Re:Don't do the math

[FatherOfONe]

Don't let reason and sanity get in the way of bashing Sony... :-)

Lets see now... 75% of the content providers are behind Blu-Ray. Only ONE content provider has backed HD-DVD.

Less than 100k units sold of HD-DVD.

6 Million (PS3) Blu-Ray players will be sold in 4 months.

The war is over guys Blu-Ray won. Now the only battle is between Blu-Ray and downloadable content, and seeing that most people don't have Gig to the household, it looks like Blu-Ray is here for a while.

Content is king in this battle and Sony learned from it's Betamax/VHS war.

Warner will soon realize that they made a mistake and switch also, that will be the final death nail in HD-DVD. Toshiba can't live forever at a $200 loss per unit. Sony can with the games making up for lost profits.

Heck the list goes on and on. HD-DVD is dead.

Re:Don't do the math

[Skreems]

The only indicator I see is that the PS2 is still, in June, outselling the XBox360.

Isn't that a bad sign for BOTH companies? Think about it: at this point, Sony wants people to be waiting for the PS3 ship, and buying one of those. Instead, they're buying their soon-to-be-out-of-date console in apparently pretty large numbers. Are those same people really going to turn around and buy a PS3 in six months? I seriously doubt it. And with such a lively interest in games for the PS2, how many developers are going to ditch the platform in favor of spending 10x as much money to develop for the new hardware?

Re:Don't do the math

[Borland]

As for the PS2 outselling the 360... need I remind you that the PS1 outsold the PS2 for the first year of the PS2's life

Nope, but why isn't the Xbox outselling the 360 if adoption is an issue? 24,000 is a pretty paltry number from your cited article. You are right about the stiffer competition, but stronger competition doesn't indicate failure; the success hinges on the price being worth the product.

All I'm saying is that it is still too early to predict gloom for the PS3. No, the sales figures of the 360 isn't conclusive, but I'd be a lot more convinced if they were much stronger. Everyone could be waiting for a Wii, but I'm not sure that's it either.

Re:Don't do the math

[be-fan]

Absolutely right. The average age of Playstation owners hit 21+ sometime in the mid-late 1990s. The average subscriber of "Official Playstation Magazine" is 24. For these people, a $100-$200 difference in initial launch price isn't going to be a dealbreaker. What will decide the fate of the console is whether it has the games people want to play. Microsoft's biggest problem is that their library isn't up to snuff. They had the same 1-year headstart in this generation that the PS2 had on the last generation. By this time in the PS2's lifecycle, it had built up a very decent head-start on the library front, and its sales were pulling even with the PS1s. Microsoft has not managed to do either of these things with the 360.

Re:Don't do the math

[TommyBear]

That's not really true. That definitely was not the case with the XBox 360. Everyone was aware that the MS had problems producing the console in enough numbers. No one said that 360s were flying off the shelves.

Developers were screaming. EA was about to have a a small calf and my studio was sitting back watching all the fuss, as we worked on our PS2 title, hoping that MS wouldn't stuff it up in the end.

So I think the same will apply for Sony. If they can't produce enough consoles, game developers like EA are going to let the world know. They, like alot of other developers, have invested in new titles that will ship close to launch of the PS3.

There are something like 167 titles being produced for the PS3 at the moment. That's a lot of competition for a potentially narrow market if Sony's production numbers are too small (shudders).

Re:Don't do the math

[twistedsymphony]

I'm not saying the PS3 will fail, and I'm not saying it will fall under the weight of the 360 and Wii. I'm simply saying that with all the technical problems they're having with processor Yield and Blu-Ray etc. the Actual product desire might prove to be a bigger stumbling block for them, they wont be able to run away with the market uncontested like they did with the PS2 :)

Re:Don't do the math

[JavaTHut]

If you do the math you're probably thinking that means there will only be 1.6 million units ready to go by launch (assuming both Asustek and Hon Hai each hit 200k/mo.)

Fortunately for Sony, demand seems to be dropping by about 200k/mo., so it should all work out

Re:Don't do the math

[poot_rootbeer]

The question is, will there be enough cell processors to stuff into these boxes with yields being so aweful?

I seem to recall hearing that Sony has already addressed the problem of poor Cell fabrication yields by only requiring that 7 of the 8 SPE's on the silicon be functional, allowing chips with imperfections to be used in production.

Re:Don't do the math

[caffeinatedOnline]

I feel the need to call fanboi on your entire response...

Sure there are die-hard, rabid, Playstation fanatics who would still buy one if the price was your first born. But if you look at the fact that Sony has always had lame launch titles, the PSP's consumer excitement around it's launch could be described as "apathetic" with the die hard fans camping out for a product that didn't even sell out....

Its true that the DS is handily beating the PSP in sales, especially since the DS Lite launched; but apathetic is alittle strong. The PSP is selling about half as well as the DS. That's still something like 200k units per month.

Considering that the DS or sales numbers were not even brought into the discussion, where the hell did this come from? The OP was describing the consumer exitement about the PSP and the less then spectacular launch titles for the system, which after the die hard $ony fans had gotten theirs, dropped to apathetic. I don't know anyone that was excited about the PSP mainly due to the lackluster titles at launch.

Root kit lost a lot of fans...

Rootkit fiasco lost a lot of nerd fans. Jo Q Public still has no clue. They don't even know what a rootkit is.

That's funny... I get asked all the time by people who know that I am into computers about it. It was featured on the network news, CNN, MSNBC, etc. etc.

... as did Sony's double talk arrogance and bad mouthing of their competition, and lets not forget the clear rip-offs of Nintendo's Wii-mote and Microsoft's Guide button,

Arrogance: check.

Wii rip-off: undecided. Its a natural progression, the tilt sensor they added, if you ask me. More likely this feature was bumped up in priority when Sony saw the impression the Wii remote made. I can see that one either way to be honest. This is sort of like saying that every single digital music player is ripping off the iPod.

MS 'guide' button: what are you talking about? I don't even know what this is. Hardly a feature that's touted as interesting, at any rate.

Natural progression? I think you hit the nail on the head, though. When $ony saw the impression that the Wii controller made, they made the feature a priority... it has nothing to do with saying digital music players are ripping off the i-pod. It's like another music player coming out with a click wheel.

and perhaps most importantly THE PRICE.

Price is bad, I agree. Way bad in comparison to the other consoles, specifically. Of course, we don't actually know the final price yet.

Ummm... where have you been? The price has been known for quite awhile now. $499 for the basic, $599 for upgraded system.

Heck the reason for the high price was because of the Blu-Ray drive, and reviews thus far have shown that HD-DVD is stomping all over Blu-Ray. Really! I'd like to see that. Cite a source?

Here
Here
and here

HD-DVD has 2 layer discs (15gig per layer/30gig total) and uses the awesome VC-1 codec.

So? Blu-ray has a max storage of 200 gigs, over six layers. The codec is irrelevant; you can write a Blu-ray disc with MPEG-2, or the awesome VC-1 codec, OR the 'even awesomer' AVC codec. HD-DVD can only use MS-approved codecs and by the way, that has DRM built-in to the wrapper. (H.264/AVC does not necessarily have this stipulation (weak praise I know), but ALL MS codecs will have to deal with this.)

A six layer blu-ray disk has not been produced outside of the lab, and may be years (if ever) before it is able to be mass produced. Where do you come up with that hd-dvd can only use MS approved codecs? You are just spouting FUD now, as blue-ra

Re:Don't do the math

[thatguywhoiam]

Thank you for the references. (although the 2nd link simply references the first, from projectorcentral.)

It's a fact that every Blu Ray movie released so far is on a single layer disc, and that the currently available players are only able to read single layer discs. It's a fact that every Blue Ray movie released so far is using the MPEG2 format. Sure the players can support VC-1 but it doesn't actually help the quality if they're NOT USING IT. As for price. the HD-DVD entry point is $500. The PS3's entry point is $500, but if you want HDMI you'll be paying $600.. Stand alone Blu Ray players are more expensive then that. By christmas the HD-DVD price point is expected to drop. you'd be foolish to thing the PS3's price will drop by the end of the year.

We can't compare a game console with HD-disc capability with a mere Player. By that argument, the X360 will cost much more than the 'non-crippled' PS3 when you buy the HD-DVD add-on drive.

There are two issues with the current state of blu-ray. One, Samsung's player is crap. It can only handle single layer discs (as you pointed out). Two, these early movies have been encoded in MPEG-2, for whatever hairbrained reason. But this only means we don't have an effective demo of blu-ray yet.

I envy you for having electronics stores that have side-by-side comparisons of the two. Nothing like that around me, and I'm in a major city (Toronto).

Re:Don't do the math

[HellPhish]

I decided to get an 360/Wii instead.

Re:Don't do the math

[JAppi]

At that price there will be millions of nerds unable to get a PS3 even if their life depended on it.

Re:Don't do the math

[Yocto Yotta]

Nintendo is also releasing a new DualShock-ish "Classic" controller. If you hate the C stick, this is a nice improvement on a standard design.

Re:Don't do the math

[balloot]

Check out Amazon.com's sales rankings. If HD-DVD is "dead," then Blu-Ray was never born. The Toshiba player ranks 300-400 in electronics, while Samsung's Blu-Ray player is in the 8000's.

Re:Don't do the math

[thatguywhoiam]

Ah, yes. Of course I am a 'fanboi', if I disagree with your conclusions.

Considering that the DS or sales numbers were not even brought into the discussion, where the hell did this come from? The OP was describing the consumer exitement about the PSP and the less then spectacular launch titles for the system, which after the die hard $ony fans had gotten theirs, dropped to apathetic. I don't know anyone that was excited about the PSP mainly due to the lackluster titles at launch.

Console 'excitement' is always measured relative to its competitors. That's where I got that. Infantile spelling of Sony with a $ noted.

That's funny... I get asked all the time by people who know that I am into computers about it. It was featured on the network news, CNN, MSNBC, etc. etc.

I counter your anecdote with my anecdote. Go ask 10 people outside your workplace what a rootkit is.

Natural progression? I think you hit the nail on the head, though. When $ony saw the impression that the Wii controller made, they made the feature a priority... it has nothing to do with saying digital music players are ripping off the i-pod. It's like another music player coming out with a click wheel.

Fair enough.

I noticed that you say nothing of my criticisms of Sony. Fanboi indeed.

Ummm... where have you been? The price has been known for quite awhile now. $499 for the basic, $599 for upgraded system.

Yes, that is the number being tossed around at the moment, but if its all right with you, I'll pass judgement when there's something shipping.

Here, Here, and here

First source admits that the Samsung player has an HDMI scaler bug, and notes that the movies are encoded with MPEG-2, not AVC. Your second source repeats what the first one said, if you'd read your own links. Third source, your most credible, links to an AV forum where the guys who ran out and bought HD-DVD players are announcing that - suprise! - they like their new toys. It is what it is, but this is hardly an authoritative dataset!

Sony's first discs will be encoded in MPEG-2, the same video codec used by today's standard-definition DVDs. The initial reason for doing so was simple: Sony already had encoding tools in place that could easily be adapted to Blu-ray Disc. "We started working with Sony Japan a couple of years ago developing an MPEG-2 encoder specifically for this format," says Eklund.

And this proves... what? That we haven't seen blu-ray demonstrated properly, with a proper codec (VC-1/AVC) yet. That is all. Its worth noting, but if you take from this that all blu-ray discs will be MPEG-2, you are dead wrong.

Once again, bullshit. The manual for the Smasung BD-P1000 states that it is only capable of playing single layer discs. Hopefully $ony has the state of mind to put a dual layer lens in the PS3.

You misread. I wasn't saying the Samsung had issues - I specifically mentioned those. I was speaking to the GP's point about blu-ray being like UMD, and as I said, they are totally different animals. UMD is not backwards compatible with anything, for starters. Who's the fanboi now?

Feel free to talk to someone besides your playstation fanboi friends and your impression will change.

I do, all the time. Believe me I have no dog in this fight. I don't plan on buying any of these consoles. I did receive an X360 as a gift, used it for awhile, then sold it. Now I'm waiting to see what the PS3 and Wii can do.

But don't let that make any sort of dent in your binary worldview. Can we not discuss the issues with these machines without resorting to this pigeon-holing?

Re:Don't do the math

[DrXym]

Shortages are part and parcel of new product but I also expect that they are cynically engineered to ensure demand outstrips supply. If they have more boxes than they can sell, it makes the product look like it is selling badly. Therefore if you cut the stock to the bone, you can ensure lots of juicy headlines about fights breaking out between people trying to buy the last PS3.

Sony is not alone on this. Microsoft did it with the XBox 360, and no doubt Nintendo will too with theirs.

Re:Don't do the math

[Firehed]

Me too. I was a bit intrigued when I first heard about the Revolution and the back catalog, but since it gained the final name of Wii and most notably the insane gameplay that'll come from the Wiimote, I'm almost certainly going to be picking one up. Even if just for being able to play my old classics without the requisite blow job. If it can help my golf game without the greens fees, so much the better.

Re:Don't do the math

[dubbreak]

Maybe you should look up the meanings of THEN and THAN. I thought the meanings were common knowledge, and there are lots of articles on the subject.

All in jest, but "AV forums buzzing" does not make something "common knowledge". Simple grammar rules such as when to use than or then SHOULD be common knowledge, however that is much too optimistic for slashdot :D.

Re:Don't do the math

[deinol]

I apologize for not citing sources for the HD-DVD over Blu-Ray debate. I figured it was common knowledge at this point

Not meaning to pick on you, but far too often people are surrounded by others with the same interest. So while the forums and people you hang out with might be closely watching the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray battle, not everyone has time for it. I personally haven't paid attention to it at all, as I know getting an HD TV is fairly far on my horizon. By the time I get around to it, the war will have been decided.

You also have to remember a place like slashdot can give a misleading feel for what is 'common knowledge'. There are a lot of people with varied amounts of techincal knowledge, so the chances of someone who does know about something any specific topic will likely respond.

I myself have been following the info on new consoles. It affects me directly because I'm likely to buy at least 2. I do think that eventually I will get a PS3. But most likely, long after it is out and the price drops below $300. I'll be content with a Wii until then.

Re:Don't do the math

[davevt5]

Not to say I'm sticking up for the 360, but... to be fair, it launched in such short supply for the holiday season that it might have well just launched in January. I wouldn't look too closely at the sales for the last 8 months. I would instead focus on sales from Black Friday through Christmas.

Re:Don't do the math

[quizzicus]

Your claims about cell yields are poorly supported. The first two links simply refer to the third one, in which the interviewee speculates on what the yield will likely be, based on the chip size. IBM has not released official yield data to the best of my knowledge. The interviewee also states that chips that aren't up to PS3 spec can be used in a number of other products.

Re:Don't do the math

[7Prime]

Yeah, but, who hates the C stick?

I'm just waiting for them to releas the WiiBird (Wii-only Wavebird with no nubs to stick in the ports, and possibly rumble feature)

Re:Don't do the math

[twistedsymphony]

Maybe you should have read my sig before wasting your time with that post.

Re:Don't do the math

[caffeinatedOnline]

Ah, yes. Of course I am a 'fanboi', if I disagree with your conclusions.

Actually, I use fanboi to describe someone who slavishly supports a particular item.

Console 'excitement' is always measured relative to its competitors. That's where I got that. Infantile spelling of Sony with a $ noted.

Huh? Since when is excitement measured relative to it's competitors? This comment makes no sense. And $ony is a joke on the rootkit, rather clever if I don't say so myself. Hoping that it catches on.

Yes, that is the number being tossed around at the moment, but if its all right with you, I'll pass judgement when there's something shipping.

Ummm... that was the price announced by $ony. It's fine with me if you want to wait to pass judgement, though =)

First source admits that the Samsung player has an HDMI scaler bug, and notes that the movies are encoded with MPEG-2, not AVC. Your second source repeats what the first one said, if you'd read your own links. Third source, your most credible, links to an AV forum where the guys who ran out and bought HD-DVD players are announcing that - suprise! - they like their new toys. It is what it is, but this is hardly an authoritative dataset!

Hmmm... then show me one review that says Blu-Ray is better then HD-DVD in it's current form. The OP stated that hd-dvd was whooping blu-ray, and from what I can find on the net, he's right.

And this proves... what? That we haven't seen blu-ray demonstrated properly, with a proper codec (VC-1/AVC) yet. That is all. Its worth noting, but if you take from this that all blu-ray discs will be MPEG-2, you are dead wrong.

You stated to the OP that he was wrong. I was just proving his point that the current blu-ray disks are encoded in MPEG-2. Maybe you should read back to what you posted to the OP.

You misread. I wasn't saying the Samsung had issues - I specifically mentioned those. I was speaking to the GP's point about blu-ray being like UMD, and as I said, they are totally different animals. UMD is not backwards compatible with anything, for starters. Who's the fanboi now?

No, you didn't mention that. What I mentioned was that the blu-ray players currently only read one layer, which you said was unfounded. And I wouldn't call myself a fanboi, more of a anti-fanboi of $ony.

And I agree with your willingness to discuss these machines without ....pigeon-holing.... wait....what the hell exactly does that mean?

Re:Don't do the math

[7Prime]

That was sorta my thought, at first, but then I started thinking about it like this: Sony is making a profit on the PS2, or at least breaking even, at this point. The only reason to create a new console is to attempt to get more people to buy your consoles, when the older one starts flagging. The PS2 is doing quite well right now, though, so many Sony's plan for the PS3 is for it to be gradually adopted, thus furthering the life of the cheaper, but more profitable PS2. If PS2 sales start to drop, it's only because people are preparing to get a PS3, which is not a bad thing for Sony either.

The bottom line is, people aren't really "done" with this generation, yet. They're pretty happy with the quality of technology thus far, which is why the PS2 greatly outsold the far more powerful XBox and GameCube consoles. Hotcakes are going to be selling like Wiis, though, because it's not so much a new generation, but a new kind of console experience all together... not just an upgrade. I predict that PS2 sales will be strong for a good 6 months to a year into the PS3s life, with some great new games coming out. By then the PS3s price will drop enough that people will slowly start buying them.

I'm not being a Sony appologizer, however, I think the PS3s price is outragous, and I'm not buying one until it falls below $300, but it may not be a bad strategy for Sony to extend the launch period, and continue the PS2 legacy a little longer. After all, it's not about how many console one sells at launch, it's about how many consoles they sell over the console's lifespan.

Re:Don't do the math

[7Prime]

Ummm, dude, I probably agree with you on every single one of your individual points, but you still come across as an asshole. Actually, if you read his post, it doesn't come across as fanboyish in the slightest, he takes a good step back from everything and surveys it fairly well. If anything, YOUR post comes across as anti-Sony fanboyish. I may agree a little more with your actual conclusions, but you could learn some communication skills from this guy. Oh, and spelling a company you don't like with a "$" sign, that's so funny, I wish I'd thought of that!

Sure, I don't believe the PS3 will be a huge success, but I don't believe it will fail either... the PS2 did so well, the PS3 is guarenteed a good ride for a while on its success, even if it is little more than a toaster glued to a frying pan. Now, the PS4 may be a disaster because of it, but that's a different story.

Re:Don't do the math

[TheRaven64]

The war is over guys Blu-Ray won. Now the only battle is between Blu-Ray and downloadable content, and seeing that most people don't have Gig to the household, it looks like Blu-Ray is here for a while.

Now, try saying it this way:

The war is over guys DVD-A[1] won. Now the only battle is between DVD-A and downloadable content, and seeing that most people don't have 100Mbit to the household, it looks like DVD-A is here for a while.

You see, most consumers seem to care a lot more about convenience than about quality. If I could download 2GB H.264-encoded films, then I could (on my current connection) download a film in about an hour; if it were streamed then I could begin watching it as soon as I decided what to watch. Considering that many people consider 700MB MPEG-4 rips to be adequate, a 2GB H.264 film should be ample.

[1] Or SACD, if you prefer.

Re:Don't do the math

[Captain DaFt]

Why is it when a litany of Sony's crimes against consumers is listed, David Manning almost never gets mentioned?
  http://www.museumofhoaxes.com/manning.html
  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/film/4741 259.stm

fake reviews, poor quality products, high prices, proprietory formats, anti-resale patents, destructive DRM; Just how the hell does Sony still have fans? Is apathy really that powerful?

Re:Don't do the math

[caffeinatedOnline]

Yeah, reading back on my post, I guess I do come across as an asshole. Sorry about that, stressful day at work. And the whole $ony thing, it has to do with the rootkit... it hid the files using the $? After the M$ stuff, I thought that it was fitting. I agree, and even admit, to being an anti-sony fanboi fanboi. I just get tired of reading so much fud on both sides of the fence without anything backing it up.

Re:Don't do the math

[Afrosheen]

Actually alot of the production problems are nailed pre-production during the prototype and test phases. I work for a prototyping firm and they can get the process down well enough to predict manufacturability and failure rate. Of course, once the product hits a full production environment, it can be re-engineered further to make production yields higher and costs lower, but initially you nail the big bugs during prototyping.

Re:Don't do the math

[FatherOfONe]

Toshiba is loosing over $200 per unit now. When the PS3 hits the shelves the price difference between their player and a Blu-Ray will be $0.00. Oh and you will get a game machine with the Blu-Ray machine.

Blu-Ray hasn't seriously entered the market yet. When it does in November the war is over.

Re:Don't do the math

[Groo Wanderer]

"Articles like the ones you cited, of course, are largely fueled by Microsoft money/fandom and anti-Sony propaganda, not reality."

As the author of at least one of the articles you are picking on, I can say unequivocably that I have no particular love for MS, nor do they pay me, nor did I ever get anything from them other than a mouse/keyboard for review once.

You are dead wrong here, and resorting to ad homenim attacks only shows that you have no real arguement to rely on.

            -Charlie

Re:Don't do the math

[timeOday]

I suspect there are lots of people like me who have decent jobs and are willing to pay for the product they want rather than settle for a cheaper product that isn't what they want.

I guess we'll have to wait and see just how large that market is. I look at PCs. From the early 80s to the late 90s, PC technology advanced rapidly, but the average price of a computer stayed high (say $2400?). There was lots of new technology, and people were willing to pay for it. Then, in the late 90s, something funny happened; people decided to take tech advances in the form of lower prices instead of increased capability. Technical progress slowed, and prices dropped through the floor. Computers got "good enough." You can still buy a $3000 PC, but most people don't do that any more.

With the cheaper XBox 360 and the much cheaper Wii, not to mention the PS2 which is still selling well, I have to wonder how much demand there is for a console that costs as much as a PC.

Re:Don't do the math

[thatguywhoiam]

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Huh? Since when is excitement measured relative to it's competitors? This comment makes no sense.

Perhaps. It seems to me that these things don't ever launch in a vaccum, as it were. When a new console comes out, it is inevitably compared to other offerings as a value proposition. But I see what you mean. In the end, this is subjective. I know people who bought a PSP just for GTA; or a DS just for Advance Wars. So one could be honest and say they were excited about the PSP launch, and another could disagree, and they'd both be right. If we're talking mass markets, I would (subjectively) say the PSP had a ton of advance buzz around it, but Nintendo seems to be soundly thrashing them in word-of-mouth grassroots-style buzz. Just my impression though.

Ummm... that was the price announced by $ony. It's fine with me if you want to wait to pass judgement, though =)

The reason I say this is, I have a hunch (and only an unfounded hunch) that they will change the price up just before launch. Fanboys will scream "yay Sony" and the thing will STILL cost more than it should have; it will just seem more palatable after everyone got used to $600. But this is total speculation on my part.

Hmmm... then show me one review that says Blu-Ray is better then HD-DVD in it's current form. The OP stated that hd-dvd was whooping blu-ray, and from what I can find on the net, he's right.

Ah, well... we're moving the goal posts a bit. That's ok though, we can find common ground here. I am in complete agreement with you re: blu-ray in its current form. I just don't believe the state of either format, as it stands today, is much to talk about. How many of these things are out there in the world? Anyways, the original (GP) point was that Sony had hobbled the PS3 with the expensive blu-ray drive and that this was a bad decision. It remains to be seen.

You stated to the OP that he was wrong. I was just proving his point that the current blu-ray disks are encoded in MPEG-2. Maybe you should read back to what you posted to the OP.

I was speaking of the UMD comparison, and of the idea that blu-ray's 'current form' (MPEG-2 played back on buggy players) will somehow be representative of the format as a whole. I still disagree with this.

What I mentioned was that the blu-ray players currently only read one layer, which you said was unfounded. And I wouldn't call myself a fanboi, more of a anti-fanboi of $ony.

Sorry - I should have been clearer, I am aware of the Samsung unit's 1-layer limitation. (It also sounds like a 747 taking off, by the way. It was obviously shipped too early.)

And I agree with your willingness to discuss these machines without ....pigeon-holing.... wait....what the hell exactly does that mean?

Pigeon holes! Never heard that one? Like the little holes that messenger pigeons would fly into. It means to put something in an unnecessarily narrow category, with no context.

Re:Don't do the math

[caffeinatedOnline]

Glad to see that we could find some common ground here. In all actuality, I think that both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are really trying too hard. While those people with neophilia are rushing out to buy both the players and the movies, I don't see the average person finding anything so 'wow' about them. Their DVD players will work just fine. In the current state of the technology, they won't really see that much of a difference. Heck, I am always one to jump on the new technology bandwagon, have a HDTV with HDMI, and have no inclination to buy either player.

While I do own an Xbox360 (along with a PS2 (on my 3rd due to failed drives) and xbox) due to the blunders of $ony lately, I refuse to give them anymore of my money. I use to be a firm supporter, from digital cameras to laptops all the way to cdr's. But in the last 5 years, the quality has gone to shit, and the price keeps climbing. While not really a fan of Nintendo the last couple of systems, I think that the rest of my family will enjoy the Wii, and will be buying that as my second system.

Re:Don't do the math

[DeeDob]

"A console (PS2) that is still outselling the 360"

ok, so... Lot's of people mention that like it matters in the market but really it's a statistics that doesn't say anything.

People prefer to buy a 150$ old generation console compared to a 400$ new generation one. What's so surprising? Average Joe prefers the lower price that's all.

If the same reasoning is applied to PS3 and the 360/Wii, then the sales for the next gen will be:
Wii > 360 > PS3.

By the same reasoning, the PS2 will also outsell the PS3 for a long time. So will the PS3 flop because the old model sells better?

I call that reasoning irrelevant in the new gen market (i hate "next" gen since it's already out and just awaiting the competition [360, PSP, DS]).

Re:Don't do the math

[thatguywhoiam]

Definitely. I'm in the same boat as you; I have an HDMI-enabled HDTV, but am underwhelmed with the optical media. (Also an aging PS2, my third as well. Bad, bad lasers in those things. At least the 'slim' ones are more reliable, and don't sound like a leafblower.)

The way I see it playing out is: dual-laser pickup mechanism is developed; both formats receive a tepid response as standalone formats in the marketplace; downloads become more viable and compete with optical media; eventually whichever format is more useful for computers probably wins out. In this case blu-ray has an edge for storage, but in reality it'll probably be a lot more like the difference between DVD-R and DVD+R (i.e. basically nothing).

Sony quality: it does seem to have gone downhill, hasn't it, at least in certain areas. Some of their consumer electronics lines appear to be strong still - witness the Bravia, no one has a problem with those TVs. But the PS2, let's not get into that. What a nightmare. Pro video, they're still pretty strong (i.e. DigiBeta). I like Samsung these days, they are my Sony replacement lately.

I was not a big GameCube fan, although I quite liked the N64. The Wii, that is really intriguing. I just hope it remains intriguing after a few hours of play. I worry about the gimmick factor, and the fact that they are putting so much focus on the controller (which can be ripped off, after all... it is essentially a 3rd-gen lightgun). I think the remote is brilliant, but it almost makes you wonder if they forgot about the actual console... let's hope not.

Anyways, Wii is September and PS3 is November; I'll meet you back here and we can compare notes. Cheers.

Re:Don't do the math

[KDR_11k]

I wonder where people get the DS whooping PSP ass thing from. Fanboyism?

Software sales are a lot better for the DS than the PSP and the system clearly trounces the PSP in Japan (other territories don't have as much consistent sales data tracking). Overall they're equal in the US, the DS wins by a few million units in Japan (gap widening) and noone knows what it's like in Europe. The software sales are the strangest bit, the DS is getting overproportionally more software sales than the PSP (or at least it gets titles into the top ten much more frequently).

Re:Don't do the math

[Don_dumb]

Nah, the question is if there will be enough customers for it to make a difference.

Oh there will be enough. Perhaps not from the /. community, but I have talked to friends who own PS2s and will buy the PS3 because "its like the PS2 but better". Of course they have simply seen some screenshots (probably HD cut scenes) and assumed that it will be. I am pretty sure these guys in particular, are an accurate reflection of the major demographic of the PS3.

I reckon Sony could make a PS3 out of cardboard and it will sell millions, and I think they know this as well.
I however am with you, I don't usually bother with consoles, but I play less, can't afford to keep upgrading this box (and dont want to buy more M$) just to play games. But I find myself drawn to Nintendo's new offerings.
I really don't know how I have resisted the urge to get a DS Lite yet.

Re:Don't do the math

[tcc3]

But hes right, and your just repeating Sony propaganda. On paper Bluray looks impressive, but what Sony had actually been able to produce has been lackluster at best. Bluray does indeed support all the same codecs, but for some crazy reason they are only using the outdated MPEG2. The transfers on several of the Bluray movies, to put it bluntly, suck. Thats not bluray's fault, but it is the studios', and that harms public perception of this "true HD" experience Sony has been bragging about. I'm hungry for HD content, but in the end, the smart bet it to wait a year or two and see weho the victor is. But given their history, I wont be surprised if its not Sony.

Re:Don't do the math

[Zemran]

I agree wholeheartedly. Everyone that I speak to, my son included, is desperate to get one. I ask them why and it is just because it is the next in line after the PS2. Talk about the price and the fact that it is overpriced to get the Blu Ray into mainstream and they don't care, they just want a more powerful PS2 regardless. Sony got the market right when, unlike the rest, they provided backward compatability.

I do not doubt that the PS3 will succeed but if they get it wrong will it be the end of the line for the PlayStation? The customers are already sold but what if Sony does not deliver i.e. it is not 4 times better? Will these people want the PS4 in x years? Probably.

Re:Don't do the math

[heinousjay]

I'm reminded of the wisdom of the ancients:

The future's uncertain, and the end is always near.

The success of the PS3 is not yet fait accompli. Don't let your zealous heart block your vision.

Re:Don't do the math

[hkmwbz]

it has the brand name

So did Nintendo.

tons of people have PS2 games

Tons of people had Nintendo games.

it has a HD-capable player built in

The world doesn't care (yet). HD will be "it" in a few years. Right now, it's struggling with customer confusion (is that TV HD or not?), two HD formats to make things even more confusing, etc.

Wii is probably very cool for the right games, but for some games a keyboard/mouse, gamepad, joystick or steering wheel is the best.

Maybe, maybe not. But there's a classic controller available anyway, so who cares?

I look forward to finally seeing all three in action - hype is really tiresome.

You think so? Then you should really hate Sony. Sony, after all, has been caught lying again and again and again about their new consoles. Remember PS2 and all the fantastic stuff it could do? Turned out it couldn't do half of it when it was actually released...

I personally hope Sony fails miserably this time around. They are arrogant liars who treat their customers like dirt. They deserve to be smacked down like Nintendo was. Nintendo has learned its lesson, is now the underdog, and must act accordingly. Sony needs to learn this lesson too.

Re:Don't do the math

[7Prime]

No harm done... and it took a lot more courage then most to admit a mistake. But yeah, I agree with pretty much all the facts you stated. Any respect I used to have for the playstation brand, is gone. Unfortunately, I still don't have much more respect for the XBox brand, so currently there's a big gaping hole to be filled. I'll admit to becoming a bit of a Nintendo fanboi and Wiitard, but my love of epic RPGs is something that Nintendo can't currently be expected to fill in for. That was the one genre that was completely owned by the playstation, and I'll be interested to see what becomes of it.

Re:Don't do the math

[hkmwbz]

6 Million (PS3) Blu-Ray players will be sold in 4 months.

What was that about "reason" again?

Re:Don't do the math

[hkmwbz]

A console that can play the entire back catalog of PS1 and PS2 games

It can't.

Re:Don't do the math

[k_187]

apparently I did. I have no idea how, but I did.

Re:Don't do the math

[Dan Ost]

Just last week there was an article that claimed that
40 PS1 games wouldn't run on the PS3 and that Sony had
declared that unacceptable.

Have you got evidence that Sony isn't planning on having
the PS3 support both PS1 and PS2 games?

Re:Don't do the math

[hkmwbz]

Most PS2 games would work, but not all.

Re:Don't do the math

[hkmwbz]

Why do you say, "the world doesn't care (yet). HD will be it in a few years?" Yet you discount the fact that the PS3 has a HD-capable player in it which will take advantage of that "it" in a few years.

By then, the next console from MS and Nintendo will be released.

And Sony will be ready for this by including an Blu-Ray player in the PS3.

Too expensive, too early.

Re:Don't do the math

[codemaster2b]

2GB = ample...

Well, lets test your hypothesis. Standard DivX codecs don't do hi-def well. But there are alternatives from Microsoft and divX in HD.

DivX-HD Codecs range from 14MB/sec to 28MB/sec at acceptable quality. WMV-HD Codecs range from 38-50+ MB/sec at acceptable quality. Those are at sub-super-HD sizes of 1280x720.

So, take a 1920x1088 signal down to 1280x720 encoded divX-HD and a 120 minute video acceptable at a BARE minumum of 1.6 GB. True Hi-Def? No. I don't have any data for native 1920x1088 encodings.

see

ok

[coaxeus]

just when we thought this thing couldn't get more japanese :)

What?

[Erwos]

"The first consignment is for 4 mln units, the report said, noting that monthly shipments will start at 200,000 units, rising to 2 mln in October."

Does this mean they're going to ramp up from 200k per month to 2m per month in the space of about two months? That sounds just a bit unbelievable to me.

-Erwos

Re:What?

[SenatorOrrinHatch]

Multi-teraflop processors just for kids to play games on sounds perfectly believable tho, eh? Maybe the guys who make this stuff are smarter than most people can imagine.

Re:What?

[oahazmatt]

That sounds just a bit unbelievable to me.

I'll take "Things said about Sony's recent business decisions" for $1,000, Alex.

Re: What?

[djupedal]

...sounds just a bit unbelievable to me

Not when you understand the process. 'ramp up' is your phrase, not theirs, and the use therin intimates something in place later where little or nothing was before.

In this case, the manufacturing ability to pump out 2 mil/mo is in place now, however, the first runs will be throtted back, simply as a shrewd process monitoring precaution, until things are felt to have smoothed out, at which time the 'full speed ahead' signal is sent to the line(s) and the spigot is then opened up all the way.

Tora! Tora! Tora! or perhaps better said as 'girigiri...'

Re:What?

[zlogic]

Perhaps some of the the 200K/month consoles will be used for testing purposes, so that they won't screw when devices are made in large quantities (problems like too much thermopaste in Macbooks, Xbox 360 failing when put on carpet). Some problems may appear only when you make a lot of consoles. If you have to recall 400K units it's cheaper than 4 million.

Re:What?

[cthellis]

I do believe what they mean in this case that they will deliver 2 million units by October (and then continue on to fulfill the rest of their contract at whatever production rate they are at by then; 400k or so?), not that they will be able to produce 2 million units PER month by then. ;-)

Especially seeing that Sony could not remotely sell through 2 million units a month from just ONE of their suppliers.

Re:What?

[grazier]

You're making a few assumptions. One, that making each PS3 happens immediately, and two that all their capacity is making is the PS3 all the time. The 200k per month of the PS3s have likely been in the build phase for a bit by (random number)5%(/random number) of their capacity. While that's been happening, the other 95% of their capacity is probably pumping out another product which is likely near the end of that products contract fulfillment commitment. Once each person completes the work they need to do for that product, they start working on PS3s. Presto, you got enough people working on enough PS3s to do 2 million/month. Say it takes 1 month to build a PS3, expect the rate of build starts to hit (2,000,000/30) for each day in the month of September (simplistic view, but the general idea is there).

Cheers.
-Dan

Re:What?

[be-fan]

Why not? A high-end GPU off newegg will do over a teraflop too. The difference between those teraflops and the ones in a supercomputer are that the former are not fully-programmable. Only about 128 gigaflops are programmable, and even that is 32-bit precision, compared to the 64-bit precision you find in a supercomputer. The rest is tied up in fixed function circuits that are a lot cheaper than a general purpose floating-point unit.

As for Cell, yeah, 200gigaflops is a lot, but it's also 200gigaflops from very simple in-order cores. Again, a high-end GPU has a couple of dozen quad-issue 128-bit vector cores running at hundreds of megahertz. Is it hard to believe that $400m invested in Cell manged to get 8 dual-issue 128-bit vector cores running at 3.2 GHz?

Yes, citing "2 teraflops" for the PS3 is taking advantage of people who don't know better, but its not something to be disbelieved. Its just a number you have to put into the perspective based on context.

Re:What?

[SenatorOrrinHatch]

My point was: since home entertainment systems have evolved that far outstrip a Cray xmp1, then is it so hard to beleive that industrial chip manufacturing processes have improved dramatically in the last decade as well?

Damnable lack of information!

[Rob T Firefly]

The article doesn't say a thing about what sort of truck they'll be using to deliver these PS3s, what roads it'll be taking, or which truckstops along the way serve the driver's favorite foods. How useless.

Re:Damnable lack of information!

[Anonymous Coward]

The article doesn't say a thing about what sort of truck they'll be using to deliver these PS3s, what roads it'll be taking, or which truckstops along the way serve the driver's favorite foods. How useless.

In related news three robbers wearing Darth Vader masks and Dr Who Tshirts made off with a truck load of PS3s. It is believed excess units with mod chips will be availible to the highest bidder on Ebay shortly. Unsold units will likely be dumped through Craig's List.

Re:Damnable lack of information!

[Zemran]

The article doesn't say a thing about what sort of truck they'll be using to deliver these PS3s, what roads it'll be taking, or which truckstops along the way serve the driver's favorite foods. How useless.

Sounds like you are planning a robbery... I'll have 500 units.

That somewaht vacant hollow sound...

[Churla]

Is the sound of fewer and fewer people caring.

I'm not going to say this is the end of the world for Sony, but I think they are going to be in for an awakening of sorts when they release and see how "meh" the reaction to this console will be.

Maybe they can slip in a doomed to failure media format like UMD to bundle with .. oh.. um.. nevermind.

Re:That somewaht vacant hollow sound...

[TommyBear]

They could bundle compact discs.... seeing that was one their formats that failed

Re:That somewaht vacant hollow sound...

[Mark Gillespie]

The not caring reaction is merely the sound of a few XBox360 fanboys who have been lead to believe their console is worthy of a "Next-Gen" tag, and are fearfull that the PS3 will make it look like last years news...

Logic redundancy?

[thatguywhoiam]

Can someone elaborate on this quote?

With chips that are one-by-one and silicon germanium, we can get yields of 95 percent. With a chip like the Cell processor, you?re lucky to get 10 or 20 percent. If you put logic redundancy on it, you can double that. It?s a great strategy, and I?m not sure anyone other than IBM is doing that with logic. Everybody does it with DRAM. There are always extra bits in there for memory. People have not yet moved to logic block redundancy, though.

Does that mean, logic redundancy built into the chip itself? or some other kind of process?

(aside to CmdrTaco: "Now-go-cry-about-the-price dept." No kidding. How much was my last iPod?)

Re:Logic redundancy?

[BenjyD]

I would guess that they are referring to the 'spare' co-processor on each Cell: each Cell has 7 SPEs (co-processors) working, but there are actually 8 in the silicon. That way, if one of the SPEs doesn't work during testing, you can just disable it and still keep the chip.

Re:Logic redundancy?

[Anonymous Coward]

That is what they are refering to. But even allowing for the redundant SPE, satisfactory yeilds are only at 10%. So basically Sony is paying for 10 processors for every shipped processor. No doubt this will increase as time passes and they refine the process. IBM's current 3 core PowerPC processors (the 360's processor for all those fanboys watching) is currently yeilding about 60%. The cell is effectivly a single core PowerPC with 8 SPEs strapped on, the issue is with the SPEs, not the core itself. The other problem with this chip design (apart from the obvious coding complexity) is that cores are prone to failure after the testing phase. This could mean something far worse than the disc read error of the PS2 or the 360 heating issues. The games are allowed 5 SPEs and the core, so no doubt most will use these. The remaining 2 assumingly functional SPEs are reserved for the OS and DRM (that's right, blu ray required an entire 3.2 Ghz processor for it's DRM).

The other issue that I am less informed of and have just heard traces of across the net is that there are too few blu diodes for the blu ray drive, any even if enough for the PS3, what about the players that need to be release on that ever further away date. No use releasing a new format with only a game mechine capable of playing the format. Yes the PS3 is cheaper than Sony's blu ray players (or any other from my knowledge) but the average consumer will certainly not see it in this way, it's a branding issue. Many people don't understand gaming and will dismiss it as a toy.

Re:Logic redundancy?

[Jimmy King]

I believe what is being referred to are the extra circuits that are built into DRAM. They have "spares" built into them assuming that a certain percentage are going to be bad, in which case one of the spare circuits is used instead.

Re:Logic redundancy?

[uarch]

Built into the chip (which is why they are getting much better yields than all of these random tech websites keep reporting.)

With this many transistors on this small of a process its pretty much standard to see redundancy. You see it in Cell and you see it in x86 cores.

It's relatively simple to recover faults in the cache and people have been doing it for a while (years). Static faults (aka. process errors) can be stored somewhere else. Transient faults (oops, a particle hit our bit and flipped it) on a cacheline are handled with ECC or sometimes parity on tag/state bits, and multiple ECC fields for data. These ECC schemes are sometimes also placed on non-cache data-arrays within the core.

In other logic it's a lot trickier to recover errors but you're starting to see it. This is most likely what he's talking about.

Re:Logic redundancy?

[thatguywhoiam]

Thanks for the response! Very helpful.

So what?

[the computer guy nex]

These kind of numbers were promised by the venders who manufactured the 360, and look what happened.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Ramping Up

[CopaceticOpus]

In other news, I'd like to announce that I'm putting $20 per week away in anticipation of meeting my goal of affording a PS3 at launch. There has been speculation about low yield (ok, so I already spent $10 of this week's money at Taco Bell.) But I'm hoping to be able to ramp up production in time to meet my goal of $1000 (PS3, a couple games, 4 controllers.) I'm sure my boss will understand and give me that raise!

Re:Ramping Up

[rbarreira]

Pre-order lists for games show them at 60 bucks or so.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/715/715867p1.html

Re:Ramping Up

[mrtivo]

The non-castrated PS3 is $599. I imagine 4 controllers will be $100, plus a few games and you are getting awfully close to $1000. Throw in tax and bundling fees, and you're there.

Re:Ramping Up

[mrtivo]

If they truly plan to have downloadable content, 60GB will be essential. Plus WiFi is nice so you don't have to run an unsightly network cable to your TV. I don't care about HDMI, but the larger HD and WiFi is more important than you think.

Re:Ramping Up

[cflannagan]

I'm speechless whenever I see a Sony fanboy try to defend PS3's pricing. Oh, for the record, I owned a PS2 before. And I don't even have a XBox or 360, so don't have a knee-jerk reaction by calling me a XBox fanboy.

Re:Ramping Up

[ivan256]

The WiFi is useless if you ask me... If the online service is anything like Live, they can stuff it (Subscription fee, plus micro-payments, plus advertising. Absurd and unacceptable.).

As for the hard drive, it remains to be seen if you can hook up external storage. If you can, why spend the money on the more expensive PS3 when you can spend that money on hundereds of gigabytes of third-party storage instead?

Regardless of all that, I hope Sony sells TONS of the cheaper model. If a majority of BluRay players don't support HDCP it'll be that much better for the rest of us.

Re:Ramping Up

[be-fan]

The low-end PS3 isn't castrated any more than any other cheaper model in a product line. Is the 17" iMac "castrated"? Is the 30GB iPod "castrated"? Is a Palm E2 "castrated"?

The reason people got on Microsoft's case about the "castrated" 360 was because it was missing a component key to its basic function of gaming (the HDD). The low-end PS3 doesn't have any of those limitations. It's got enough HDD for gaming, wireless controllers, etc. The only things its missing are "extras", like a memory card reader, HDMI port, etc. If you're not interested in the PS3 as a home media device, you don't need any of these things (except maybe the WiFi).

Re:Ramping Up

[7Prime]

Don't mention it, Wiitard! ;)

j/k

Re:Ramping Up

[CopaceticOpus]

$600 - PS3 (this is the price I've seen published most places) $140 - 2 new games (at the predicted new prices) $120 - 3 Controllers (bringing my total to 4, duh) $70 - Pizza and beer (or a third game... but this is more essential) $70 - Sales Tax Total: $1000!

Two consoles providers?

[Anonymous Coward]

We know about ASUSTek quality but how about the other one? The article does not relate anything about the quality assurance of the soon-to-be-shipped units. Will both companies meet the same quality? Both makers will use the same components? etc..

Assembly ramping

[Anonymous Coward]

The original article says that component suppliers estimate they will be supplying 1m component sets per month from Sept (i.e. 2m for Sept/Oct). That's the target, not 2m per month.

Remember also that Asus is only one of the assemblers. Sony themselves is assembling, and Foxconn may be pulled in later. If Asus is assembling 200k in the month between June and July, Sony themselves could be doing the same number i.e. 400k. Which would make 1m/month total between all assemblers actually quite possible by Sept, assuming all goes to plan.

So much could happen to bottleneck the supply, and their rather ambitious targets, but this does sound like a great start. It's also much earlier than I expected (for comparison, MS started assembling 360s in September before its November launch).

Should be plenty

[grapeape]

If the general interest everywhere else is like it is here, 2 million should be more than enough to cover launch. Its a bit jacked up how the "bad buzz" has spread well beyond the internet, especially since its somethig none of us have seen yet. My brother in law was asking me about the xbox 360 yesterday, and was telling me how he heard the ps3 was an overpriced piece of ****. He has no home computer nor email account so how he heard this I have no idea, but if its any indication of the "general public" that is always discussed here as not knowing anything its not a good sign.

Re:Should be plenty

[grapeape]

Actually coward it did, but he read it in a game magazine, I had forgotten he gets EGM, so I guess he is more in touch than the vast hordes of clueless people that sony fans are relying on.

Re:Should be plenty

[TommyBear]

Really? Well I'll give you a pointless anecdote to counter yours:

My FRIEND will not buy an xbox 360 because he is surrounded by people who are the general public(his friends) and all own PS2s and are buzzing about the arrival of the PS3.

So he is getting excited about the PS3 too, even though he has never owned a console. He is now saving to buy one at launch. Here in Australia that's a mean 1K.

So to sum up, you can throw around all the anecdotes and hyperbole you want. At the end of the day it's all speculation until things actually launch. The xbox is still not doing a spectacular job of selling, probably because people are waiting to see what Ninetndo and Sony are going produce. Or maybe it's content? Or maybe people don't want next-gen? Or HD? Who knows?

Also that 2 million figure will not be anywhere near enough. Those are worldwide units and last time I checked the earth's population is 6,529,296,015 and some of them have to be gamers right?

Re:Should be plenty

[grapeape]

Im sure your right in regards to that, I also have a coworker who is online and much more into gaming than I am and he is getting PS3, he claims that there are few 3rd party developers for the wii and that M$ is just trying to force users into the next version of webtv. I dont even bother to comment, usually just nod and smile.

Its all just rumors and speculation and even disproved rumors still abound. In the end people will buy consoles based on what they can afford, what their friends are playing and whatever rumors they choose to believe.

Re:Should be plenty

[hkmwbz]

M$ is just trying to force users into the next version of webtv

LOL. Sony is trying to force users into using their HD-DVD technology. This time around, they decided to use their gaming console to push BR on people. So they changed it from a gaming console to a BR crowbar.

WSJ article on PS3 lookout

[rfunches]

The Wall Street Journal ran an article today on concerns about long-term sales (subscribers only, I think) for the PS3. Wall Street analysts and industry watchers are concerned that the PS3 just won't succeed with the majority of gamers, especially with the Wii's lower price tag and innovative controller and the time lead that XBox 360 has.

Obligatory

[i_ate_god]

Will it ship with Duke Nukem Forever?

Supply and demand can be a bitch!

[Onuma]

This has happened before...PS2's yield rate was pretty crappy, if you remember. They were low on production numbers back then too. So low, in fact, that they couldn't even fulfill the numbers for the people who had preordered the system - they first went by date and who paid in full, and the next shipment went out to first-come customers.

Obviously, the PS2 did not hurt for sales at all. They supplied the numbers demanded of them eventually, and it was extremely successful. The only real killers for Sony are potentially the hype and the massive price. I saw a couple units go for well over $500 on Ebay. Personally, at $600 I won't be buying that Sony product any time soon - not unless I get about 3 pay raises!

TFA Not informative

[ursabear]

I, for one, welcome our new Sony over... ... Oops. The sixties perhaps weren't very kind to me... Now, on topic

TFA is very short, low on content, and really doesn't do much for me. The only nugget o' information is that Sony's using some well-known suppliers for unit production.

Personally, I don't get much time to play games any more - even my kids are almost too busy to play any more. But, we really enjoy our consoles when we do get to play, so I am looking forward to the PS3. However, as before, we will wait for a good while to purchase a PS3. I'd like to avoid the 1.0 problems that will occur, and I really don't want to pay top-dollar after waiting in huge lines at launch time. We waited more than a year for a PS2, and I'm glad we bought one at that time... we've really enjoyed it, and there was no stress in the purchase. OTOH, our local Target has only recently begun to actually have a 360 or two on its shelves, so there's no telling how long it will be before PS3s actually become available here.

I don't have a lot of faith that there won't be PS3 supply issues this holiday. I might believe that Sony watched Microsoft and learned something, but I'm adopting the "wait and see" attitude.

Re:That somewhat vacant hollow sound...

[twistedsymphony]

I completely agree.

Sony seems to forget that what made their past consoles so popular was because it appealed to the "casual gamer". People who were looking to get in at a reasonable price point and people who only bought one because it's what their friends had. A lot of people bought the PS2 because at the time it was a cheap DVD player. and while the PS3 might be a cheap Blu-Ray player it's still more expensive then the (now proven to be) superior HD-DVD players, not to mention neither next gen movie formats have met much excitement.

Aside from the Playstation name Sony is ignoring just about everything that made their past consoles so popular.

This is good news!

[VincenzoRomano]

Along with the same piece of news announced one month ago,two months ago, three months ago ...

Hon Hai Quality Issues

[||Plazm||]

I worked for Foxconn (a.k.a. Hon Hai) here in the states while they used their 'magic process' to manufacture PC's for one of the big PC maker's. As an Engineer its very hard to believe in a product that you see engineered with obvious flaws, built with obvious flaws, and then passed on to customers with obvious flaws. There's always some degree of this going on in any manufacturing environment. However, when these flaws go unchanged due to the wholly adopted philosophy of Quanity over Quality, such as Hon Hai uses, it is very frustrating.

I just hope that this type of manufacturing isn't passed on to the PS3 for Sony's sake and for consumer's sake (especially for the price they will be paying).

Re:That somewhat vacant hollow sound...

[geminidomino]

Blu-Ray player it's still more expensive then the (now proven to be) superior HD-DVD players

Is there a source for that?

Not flaming, I'm actually interested.

Cute tag

[mgabrys_sf]

Love the vaporware tag from the Sony haters. By that measure - so is the Wii - by virtue of neither being out yet. Must be one of those unmodable ways of spreading FUD that I've heard so much about.

Re:Cute tag

[grapeape]

There is a big difference though at least Nintendo let people actually play some wii games on some actual hardware while Sony showed video that they said was being rendered in real time behind a curtain. Im sure the ps3 will be released on time and specs wise will be infinately more powerful than the wii, but until someone actually can touch one and see a game being played on one its still vaporware.

Re:Cute tag

[mgabrys_sf]

Sorry I gotta disagree - Vaporware, has always meant a product or software package that was announced but never "really" in development and had no release date. This is not the case with either the Wii or the PS3. Now how MANY PS3s that's up for grabs, but with all the infrastructure in place - what do you expect to be created? The Coleco Adam 2?

FUD FUD FUD FUD FUD!

a slightly different perspective

[mihalis]

There seems to be a lot of concern in this discusssion to pick a winner, and then for a winner be an early adopter, but for a loser never ever buy it.

I think that's fine, I've done that myself, however for PS3 here is how it will work for me :

I will buy it - I decided a long long time ago and I don't particularly care what other peoples expectations of its features, value or prospects look like. Whether it's $600, or $1200, doesn't particularly matter to me. They last me for many years and I get a lot of fun out of them - PS2 was a particularly good deal, but if PS3 can save me buying an expensive separate dedicated blu-ray player it might also turn out to be a bargain.

I wont queue up or pay deposits or try really hard to get one early. I will simply wait until I happen to be in a store that has a pile of them and then I'll just pick one up.

I'll buy a few games - Jak and Daxter, Gran Turismo, Ratchett and Clank, maybe Pitfall. I'm sure a few wll be wicked and I'll love them. A few I'll play for an hour and give up on.

If PS3 takes off and starts to have even more awesome games, I'll buy a few more. If it's a failure, well, that's fine, I'm not too worried. Hey, maybe I'll buy an xbox 360 too. Several high-end consoles and some games works out a lot cheaper per hour of entertainment than, say, getting a babysitter and going out to the movies over and over. In a few years I'll let my daughter play some carefully chosen games from time to time.

I'm not going to pick a winner, and I'm not completely on one "side" or the other. Unless you count the side that says if I had enough money I'd have all the consoles and all the games and I also wouldn't have to work and would actually complete the odd game!

Re:a slightly different perspective

[mihalis]

this is a perspective that many of us in the "target demographic" cannot enjoy due to lack of resources.

I don't have the luxury of not caring about price

Sure, I understand the projected $600 price will be significant to many people, let alone the $1200 made up figure I mentioned. For me $600 is hardly trivial, but I will forego expenditure on other things to get a new games console because alternatives end up even more expensive, or are less justified. For example, I have a two year old digital SLR - it's still fine, and my wife has a digital small point-and-shoot. I'd like my own small camera too, but it's just a convenience argument, because if I plan ahead to need a camera I can carry my SLR, else I can borrow hers in many cases. A good digital point and shoot might be around the same price as a PS3, so I'll probably wait a bit, get the PS3 (which gives me access to content unavailable elsewhere e.g. PS3 games and blueray dvds), and then hope to have the cash for my own small camera maybe next year.

Re:a slightly different perspective

[nuzak]

If the next Ratchet and Clank is anything like Deadlocked or even UYA, I'll pass. Supposedly both R&C and the Jak series are over though.

If there's a Burnout 5, I'll be all over it. I just hope they get rid of "traffic checking". Or God of War 3. But I'll certainly never buy another JRPG again.

After all that, it's hard to justify the purchase price. I don't even own a HDTV. I guess the Wii was made for people like me. And now I'm picturing Mario in a Wii version of a God of War type of title -- savagely eviscerating the Mushroom King in a spray of spores. Actually, I'd pay good money for that.

Re:a slightly different perspective

[coop247]

I can't believe a post proclaiming that you were going to buy a PS3 actually got modded up, evil is afoot. Anyway.....

I agree, I'll buy one first chance I get, but I'm not going to camp out in a parking lot or buy one on ebay.

I read all the same complaints, "its too expensive", "I dont even have an HDTV, so what do I need a BRay player", blah blah blah. It was just in the news today that HDTV's are quickly dropping in price. So in a year or two you will have one, calm down.

I'd rather pay a little more now, rather than have to go purchase a hard drive and HDDVD add-ons seperate (go ahead and mod me down XBox fanboys).

Re:a slightly different perspective

[namityadav]

I am going to have the 'wait and watch' approach too. I waited and saw what the deals were with different types of HDTVs (Plasma, LCD, Projection). Then when Plasmas were cheap enough for me, were past the 1.0 version, and were the best deals in terms of PQ and weight / dimensions, I bought one. I did the same thing for PSP vs DS Lite. When I knew that everybody was loving the DS Lite, new games were getting good reviews, Lite started getting games that play through WiFi over the internet (Cart DS, for example), and Toys R Us started selling good package deals, I bought one.

I don't even know what console I am going to buy. Maybe a Wii for its innovative Wiimote, if people find it interesting after the initial hangover. Maybe I'll buy a PS3 if the BlueRay kicks off / if the Linux on the console is really useful etc. I might even skip all of them and continue with my PC gaming. One thing that I know is the Microsoft needs to do something really cool with their 360 games collection for me to get past my anti-Microsoft obsession.

Re:That somewhat vacant hollow sound...

[burnetd]

I'd guess he's refering to the issue that you some stupid reason the first batch of blu-ray discs used MPEG2 encoding instead of one of the MPEG4 variants like VC-1 to H264 that the first HD-DVD's, so they looked a little worse.

See Wikipedia about 3/4 of the way down.

They are also ignoring the only reason that HD-DVD players are cheaper than blu-ray is because Toshiba is taking a PS3 style loss on the players.

NPD Hardware Monthlies

[Gaz_EJ]

Its true that the DS is handily beating the PSP in sales, especially since the DS Lite launched; but apathetic is alittle strong.

Right you are, at least as far as NA is concerned. These numbers (via NPD) are actually a lot closer than I suspected. Hardware sales by month:

Month; PSP; DS
Jan-06; 179,000; 158,000
Feb-06; 170,000; 150,000
Mar-06; 186,000; 184,000
Apr-06; 162,438; 138,427
May-06; 159,659; 145,930
Jun-06; 221,000; 593,000

Of course, Japan is a wildly different story. Since Brain Training the PSP has been getting shelled in sales figures, iirc.

Re:NPD Hardware Monthlies

[Gaz_EJ]

Indeed, I'm aware that the overall totals favor the DS. But the prior post mentioned that the PSP was selling ~200K a month, and you will note that is an reasonable estimate, at least for the first half of this year.

As for the overall numbers, yes, I think the DS will win this "battle" handily. Sony has made a barrage of mistakes handling the PSP platform, not the least of which is holding the belief (as they still seem to with the PS3) that people will happily pay exorbitant amounts of money for their hardware, regardless of the titles which are available.

Re:vaporware?

[oahazmatt]

Oh, Nintendo can do wrong. Case in point, Virtual Boy.

As someone who's not going to buy the dang thing, I do take objection to tagging the PS3 as Vaporware. Since when does arranging deals with manufacturers equate to "it's never being released"? The Phantom is one thing, but to tag Sony's next big thing as vaporware is ridiculous.

PS3 and Wii wholesale?

[Kevin143]

What is the process for getting Wii's and PS3's wholesale?

Re:PS3 and Wii wholesale?

[ivan256]

Contact SCEA and Nintendo of America, and convince them that you can resell enough units and associated games and accessories that you're worth doing business with.

SCEA: 800-345-7669
NoA: 425-882-2040

As a small entity, you will be asked to guarantee a certain volume. Margins will be based on your volume, and there will be contractually enforced monetary penalties for not meeting quotas.

Re:PS3 and Wii wholesale?

[Kevin143]

I assume you need a registered business or corporation.

Are you familiar with the terms of the contracts? Do you have to commit to a certain number of units over a period of tim?

Re:PS3 and Wii wholesale?

[ivan256]

Generally all you need is a business checking account. This is common when doing business with any wholsale distributor, video game or otherwise. Your town may or may not charge a fee to register a business name. My town charges $5.

Do you have to commit to a certain number of units over a period of tim?

At launch time, anything goes with these contracts. Who knows what they'll ask of you, and it may not be the same as the deal they give to somebody else. I'm not familliar with the current terms for these launches since I haven't been a reseller for almost five years now (and I don't even think they've come up with them yet), but I'm sure that how many you're willing to commit to sell will be a factor in how many they'll let you have at launch. In general, though, the answer is no. If you wanted to sell PS2s in your independant game shop right now, you could sell one every six months and they wouldn't care. You're going to have sucky margins on such low volume though.

Shocking news!

[DrBdan]

Sony is planning to sell the PS3 soon so Sony is going to actually produce some PS3s. Shocking! Astounding! Wait... isn't this generally how commerce works? Company makes product, company sells product. Must be a slow day for news.

B

Hate to break it to ya, but

[ZakuSage]

Sony had a "Home button" on their PSP a year before 360 was even first shown.

Who buys a console at launch anyway?

[DrXym]

For the dubious privilege of being the first kid / man-child on the block with a PS3, you get to pay for a handful of mediocre games, uncertainty over whether your new console will work correctly, long waits for restocking if it doesn't, an online service that will invariably lag / buckle / crash on day one and a lucky dip of the usual problems that plague all new releases.

Let other people be paying beta testers. If the system is worth buying, it will soon become apparent once the hype dies down, what problems exist are sorted and supplies increase.

Anyway despite this, I do hope the PS3 does well, simply because the console market needs competition. The price and Blu-Ray drive don't do anything for me, but if Sony have garnished themselves a clue in the last year or so, they might produce something which is worthy of premium position (and price) it commands by the TV. A PS3 could do some tantalising things if it isn't encumbered with stupid DRM or other restrictions. But time will tell. I'll let the early adopters discover if its a piece of crap first with their own money.

What about the games, screw the system.

[mrshowtime]

Let's say Sony somehow manages to launch with 2 million systems, 1 million systems, 10,000 systems, it really does not matter as now the demand will outstrip supply regardless of the price of the PS3 INITIALLY. It will be very difficult to get a PS3 if they launch worldwide with 2 million systems. In fact, ebay sales will make up most of initial purchases. In the 360 line at launch at least half of the people there were buying to resell on ebay. Nontheless, where are the killer games? What is the killer app? ALL of the games shown at the E3 seemed way off from shipping and there was no mention that the Flagship title of Metal Gear Solid 8 would be ready at launch. Sony is in a very tight spot. Miss the launch and wait for the games and lose more ground, or ship unfinished, crappy games that drive their fans directly to buying an XBox 360 instead, at half the price. Lastly, Sony is going to become the niche player this time around. Parents faced with $5 a gallon gas this year may buy a $299 360, but certainly not a $700 PS3.

Re:What about the games, screw the system.

[cowscows]

Yup. In the end, just like everyone says, it comes down to the games.

I've been a big Nintendo fan for as long as I can remember, and I was enjoying life just fine having never owned a Playstation. Then one day I played GTA3 at a friend's house, and ended up buying my own copy along with a PS2 to go with it that next weekend.

Now granted, it'd probably take an unbelievably amazing new game to get me to drop $500+ bucks just like that, but a couple years down the line, if the price has dropped to something reasonable, a killer exclusive just might convince me.

Countdown

[himurabattousai]

This means that it'll be only a few months before I can walk through Wal-Mart/Circuit City/Best Buy and make the "Nyah!" guesture (the one where you put your thumb on your nose and wiggle your upright fingers) at all the dust-covered PS3 displays.

Re:Countdown

[nuzak]

Wow. Seriously, why does it matter to you? I think you need an intervention.

Re:Countdown

[himurabattousai]

It doesn't matter to me, except that I feel a bit insulted when Sony makes an even shinier console and expects me to buy it even though all it is is a shinier console. What, of what I'm looking for, will the PS3 be capable of that a PS2 isn't? Nothing. They assume me to be a fool and spend my money on their new toy, but they're the fools for making that assumption, and instead of getting my money, they get my jeers. I'm neither a Nintendo fanboy nor a Microsoft fanboy. None of the shiniest consoles appeals to me. If they all do poorly, I'll laugh at all of them.

Re:PS 3

[mihalis]

I've noticed that there are several problems with the PS3's currently being sold in Japan.

Can you explain this a bit? I thought PS3 hadn't launched anywhere yet? If it hasn't launched, just what is being sold in Japan?

Re:That somewhat vacant hollow sound...

[joystickgenie]

I have to disagree really. This is my opinion on the primary genera distribution over consoles.

PS2: Fighting games, RPGs, rhythm games
Xbox: FPSs, racing games
Gamecube: party games and platformers, puzzle, kids games

Across the board: Sports games, stealth

From that I would say that the other two consoles were primarily targeting casual gamers and out of the consoles it would be the PS2 that targeted avid gamers the most.

And there is the parallel from DVD and blue ray. Although I don't think the world is really looking to upgrade yet I think that the parallel is there.

The only mistake that I see Sony making right now is with the pricetag.

Re:That somewhat vacant hollow sound...

[Kjella]

and while the PS3 might be a cheap Blu-Ray player it's still more expensive then the (now proven to be) superior HD-DVD players

Well, blu-ray is supposed to have dual layer (50GB) and support VC-1 codec. In reality they're using single layer and MPEG2, so the blu-ray camp is shooting themselves in the foot at the moment. If they do get their act together, it does have the capacity edge with all else being equal.

Yabut,.....

[Groo Wanderer]

One problem with that theory, and you are correct, is that IBM hasw been making cells for how long now? Is it two years already?

They had production Cell blades at CeBIT, probably before but I never saw them in the flesh. Either way, if production ramp is slower than 6 months, you have a serious design defect or it is new fab partner time.

If my math is right, two years = four of those chances, right?

              -Charlie

Re:PS 3

[Black-Six]

The PS 3 is currently being sold in Japan. Wow, I thought I'd been living under a rock. The PS 3 was part of Sony's Blu-Ray launch in June after E3. As to the quality of the product overall, Sony's issued something akin to a Blu-Ray wide voluntary recall of all produts with the Blu-Ray drive until the problems with the drive are solved. As I stated, the drive has been causing disk errors and even been reported to have burned a few disks due to laser instability. It's the same hardware and software, yet its not region free yet, thus the massive production step-up for the coming U.S. launch.

Re:That somewhat vacant hollow sound...

[twistedsymphony]

well I'd agree partially... The Xbox does concentrate mostly on FPS and Racers, and the GC mostly on party, platformer... etc. But the PS2 doesn't really concentrate in any one area. Sure it's got more fighters then both Xbox and GC put together but it's also got just as many racing games as fighters. Most of the best selling PS2 games were cross platform games. Like Madden and Grand Theft Auto. There are almost as many rhythm games on Xbox (DDR, Karaoke games, Music Mixer, etc.) and GC (DDR, Donkey Konga etc.) as there are on the PS2 but I don't see those selling very well on ANY platform.

My point was that the PS2 appealed to a broader audience because it offered the largest catalog of games with enough variety to appeal to everyone. If I only want to play Madden I can choose any console I want. I'm most likely to choose the same console my friend has.

The PS2 ran away with the market early on, the dreamcast was a star for a couple of months before it faded away then the PS2 was the ONLY console in town for over a year with two non-competitors (the unproven Xbox and the child's console GameCube). 3rd parties only had 1 option during that time and consumers only had 1 option during that time. buy the time the other consoles came out Sony had the biggest back-catalog and consumer base. Casual gamers typically buy what their more video-game savvy friends own and or the console with the widest variety of cheap games. It's not hard to see how Sony's market share snowballed into what it is today. Ask any causal gamer you know who owns a PS2 why they bought that instead of an Xbox or a Gamecube and in my experience the answer is usually "because that's what all my friends had".

tubes...

[YesIAmAScript]

It will not be delivered by a big truck that you put something on. It will be delivered by a series of tubes.

not true..

[YesIAmAScript]

The BluRay players out there right now can play dual-layer discs.

You're just making stuff up. And when that doesn't stick, you make up new stuff.

I agree that the PS3 price will not drop by the end of the year.

Re:PS 3

[mihalis]

The PS 3 is currently being sold in Japan. Wow, I thought I'd been living under a rock. The PS 3 was part of Sony's Blu-Ray launch in June after E3.

Perhaps I'm ignorant of recent news on this, but please cite your sources. I do not believe PS3 is available for sale anywhere in the world.

Re:Xbox 360 Production Date

[mister_slim]

The first production 360s came off the line in August, if I remember correctly, but they didn't start producing significant numbers of consoles until sometime in September.