Slashdot Mirror


Another US Tech Trade Deficit

eldavojohn writes "The United States is suffering again from a massive trade deficit — $38.3 billion in 2006. And it's been going on since 2002. From the press release: 'In 2006, Asia supplied 60 percent of all US imports of advanced technology products. Europe supplied more than 20 percent, and North America more than 15 percent.'"

498 comments

  1. How long by downix · · Score: 5, Insightful

    When a country exports all of it's facilities, manufacturing, and infastructure overseas, how long before that countries trading partners realize that they can cut the country out of the loop entirely?

    --
    Karma Whoring for Fun and Profit.
    1. Re:How long by MontyApollo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The US is a huge consumer. They can't cut us out all the way.

    2. Re:How long by BrianRoach · · Score: 4, Insightful


      You see this all the time now with Chinese produced goods. They copy whatever it is they were manufacturing for American company X, then produce it for themselves and ship it into the US. Basically, all they need is someone in the US to handle sales and distribution (Walmart, for example).

      - Roach

    3. Re:How long by stevesliva · · Score: 1

      When a country exports all of it's facilities, manufacturing, and infastructure overseas, how long before that countries trading partners realize that they can cut the country out of the loop entirely?
      Sure they could, but they need customers. The loop that the US needs to be worried about getting cut out of is the profit loop. Sure there are lots of manufacturers in China and the rest of Asia, but they're in killer competition to underbid each other to manufacture stuff designed in the US or Japan and sold in the US with the profits going not to the manufacturers, but to those foreign corporations. What they want is more of the total profit, but to get that, they need better brands and more of a retail channel. They'll be looking to acquire that.
      --
      Who do you get to be an expert to tell you something's not obvious? The least insightful person you can find? -J Roberts
    4. Re:How long by downix · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And with what money shall the US consume if it does not manufacture anything to sell for profit? Technology was the last real growth manufacturing field. Without turning one thing into another, to sell for profit, there is no more real consumption as rather than generating money, you are just recycling money. And then, when you buy foreign made goods, that recycled money leaves the country, leaving you with less to purchase with. It is an entropic cycle, and will eventually fail.

      --
      Karma Whoring for Fun and Profit.
    5. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's like asking the bartender to give you more beer even though your tab keeps getting longer, because you're his best customer.

    6. Re:How long by MontyApollo · · Score: 1

      It is in the foriegn companies' best interest to keep the money flowing though, so they won't "cut us out", which was the point of the first post I thought.

    7. Re:How long by *weasel · · Score: 1

      Exactly. If you look at the products that, e.g., the Chinese make for the Chinese market -- they've already 'cut us out'.

      But that doesn't mean they want to stop doing production runs of American designs for the American markets. Not when there's still a pile of cash to be made from factories that would otherwise sit idle. As their own market becomes larger and larger it'll naturally be less and less advantageous for both of us to continue the relationship - and we'll amicably part ways and our manufacturing will move on down the line.

      Yesterday, Taiwan. Today, China. Tomorrow, Vietnam/Cambodia. and so on.

      Manufacturing will go fully automated (and probably distributed) long before globalism shrinks the pool of cheap labor to a point where the US would get burned for coughing up our manufacturing infrastructure.

      --
      // "Can't clowns and pirates just -try- to get along?"
    8. Re:How long by Ohreally_factor · · Score: 3, Insightful

      they need better brands and more of a retail channel. They'll be looking to acquire that. coughcoughLenovocough

      The main problem for the U.S. is that wages are relatively high, while they are low in these rapidly developing countries. And we're apparently on a generally downward spiral while they're on a generally upward spiral. The competition you mention is going to keep wages in these countries from rising quickly, so the "floor" is going to be lower, and workers in the U.S. are going to be in for some long term pain.

      There are a lot of other factors involved, such as the lack of effective regulation (for product safety, working conditions, environmental issues, etc.) that play into this in complicated ways. But the bottom line is that we're in for some belt tightening here in the U.S., barring some major technological breakthrough.
      --
      It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.
    9. Re:How long by Jackie_Chan_Fan · · Score: 1

      bingo. We're doomed because we really dont care about our country. Oh we sit around and say its the best at everything.... when its not.

    10. Re:How long by Skuld-Chan · · Score: 1

      The US is a huge consumer. They can't cut us out all the way.

      Until no-one is making any money because all the jobs have been exported too... Is this one of those #3 profit moments?

    11. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      profits going not to the manufacturers, but to those foreign corporations

      That's true, but there's still a trade deficit. The profit that you're talking about is just shifting value around within the country. At some point the businesses which produced the imported goods will want to buy goods or services for the money that they were paid with. A trade deficit means that in the future either the money will be worth less or you'll have to make good on the value by providing more than you consume.

    12. Re:How long by zx75 · · Score: 1

      Why on earth would we? We make a ton of money by exporting our goods to the US. Being the largest consumer market in the world (in terms of total goods consumed, not population) why would we choose to cut out such a rich market?

      The only reason I could possibly see is if the US dollar were to become worthless, and better profits can be made elsewhere. But until that happens, there is no worry about countries deciding to *not* ship to the US.

      --
      This is not a sig.
    13. Re:How long by russ1337 · · Score: 5, Funny

      >>> with what money shall the US consume if it does not manufacture anything to sell for profit?

      What are you talking about? You do what the rest of us do and put it on your credit card

    14. Re:How long by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      so much for the "the design professionals will save our knowledge economy, so it doesn't matter that we've lost the ability to make or tie our own shoes" school of economics. Though I figure it'll take a number of years before our fearless leaders have it fully and painfully (for us) engraved in their viewpoints.

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    15. Re:How long by archen · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I've actually had discussions on this sort of topic and I didn't realize the implications until later. It's almost impossible to get an electronic system manufactured in the U.S. now because we've shipped all of our capabilities overseas - mainly to China. I was having a discussion with a friend about a product which he was talking about producing - a one time thing, for himself. I mentioned that it was a pretty cool idea and that he should consider making such a product commercially and selling it. He said that it wasn't worth the effort. You need to produce the product, that means using a Chinese manufacturer. They will copy it and undercut you to hell and back, whether you have a patent or not. So really there is no reason to think up new products because in the end China will end up screwing you.

      There is an amazing amount of gadgetry out there now days, but I wonder how many products never come to life because people (in the U.S.) understand that there is no way to really make any money on it.

    16. Re:How long by russ1337 · · Score: 1

      >>> .....So really there is no reason to think up new products because in the end China will end up screwing you.

      Wow.,.. Just when I was thinking about putting the laptop down, having some breakfast and taking a shower, you removed my last piece of motivation for getting out of bed today - altogether.

    17. Re:How long by daveschroeder · · Score: 2, Informative

      Looks like you have no idea what a trade deficit is. Here's some help.

      We don't "owe" anyone that money. That's the imbalance between what we export vs. what we import, i.e., we import that much more. A trade defecit - and some would argue any large trade imbalance - is unhealthy for the economy as a whole.

    18. Re:How long by Carewolf · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Wages are even higher in Europe, yet according to the story you import more electronics from Europe than you produce yourself.

    19. Re:How long by hiryuu · · Score: 1

      It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.

      Best .sig I've read in a long time - got a good out-loud chuckle out of me. :)

      --
      Karma: Excellent, but still won't get you laid.
    20. Re:How long by cHiphead · · Score: 1

      You will stop as soon as there is no money, and in the cycle, if we, the US, do not fix the trade deficit, money will just gush out of our economy, eventually it will decimate the economy and the money printers wont be able to afford paper and ink to print more money on.

      Cheers.

      --

      This is my sig. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    21. Re:How long by saider · · Score: 1


      (looking puzzled)

      "you removed my last piece of motivation for getting out of bed today"

      --


      Remember, You are unique...just like everyone else.
    22. Re:How long by Bluesman · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They can't if they care about their economy.

      But what if they don't care? The Chinese don't have a history of being enamored of the global free market. They might be willing to cut of their nose to spite their face, especially if their new middle class gets too uppity for the party's taste.

      Our massive debt that the Chinese control means that they could sink their economy and ours with a single move. It's like a financial nuclear bomb, only the Chinese have the only trigger.

      I'm all for globalism, but the massive amount of debt the U.S. government is creating isn't going to go away, and there will be consequences eventually.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    23. Re:How long by LeadSongDog · · Score: 1

      Who needs to produce anything anymore? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Second_Lif e, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Islands or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands. Youll note they all get by very nicely in financial services and tourism.

      --
      Oh, I'm sorry sir, I thought you were referring to me, Mr. Wensleydale.
    24. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You owe someone products and services to the amount of the trade deficit and they have small green pictures of your presidents to prove it.

    25. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      "And with what money shall the US consume if it does not manufacture anything to sell for profit?"

      The US shall pay with freshly printed US dollars. You could ask why other counties should accept freshly printed US dollars. The reason is that the other countries will buy oil with that. You could ask why these other countries would not pay in their own currency. The reason is that they can't which is caused by a deal between US and the Saudis that forbids the Saudis (and others) to sell oil in other currencies. As a side remark: the attack on the Iraq coincides with their trying to sell oil for Euro in the oil for food program. Generally weapons of mass distruction are found in oil exploiting countries that try to sell their oil in other currencies than freshly printed US dollars.
      It is a great concept.

    26. Re:How long by myth24601 · · Score: 1

      you removed my last piece of motivation for getting out of bed today /puzzled look too

      --
      No matter where you go, there you are.
    27. Re:How long by daveschroeder · · Score: 1

      No. You're still wrong (if you're the same AC). That's not what a trade deficit is.

      We're importing - and buying - that much more of their products than foreign nations (in this example, Asia) are of ours. We don't "owe" them anything.

    28. Re:How long by russ1337 · · Score: 1

      well, i was considering getting out of bed... but if China's going to steal all my ideas... what's the point. I may as well get some more sleep / watch tv.





      jk....

    29. Re:How long by superpulpsicle · · Score: 1

      Is got more to do with our overpriced real-estate than export/import.

    30. Re:How long by kripkenstein · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And with what money shall the US consume if it does not manufacture anything to sell for profit? Technology was the last real growth manufacturing field.
      On that note, perhaps you or someone else understands enough economics to explain something to me.

      The US has a trade deficit with (say) Japan of $80 billion, if I am not mistaken. Now, assuming 1 PC per Japanese citizen (sure, not all have one, but some have more than one), that is over 100 million PCs. Say each PC pays Microsoft $200 (for Windows + Office, plus additional stuff like SharePoint for some of them). That comes out to $20 billion paid to Microsoft, in rough estimate.

      Is this $20 billion included in the $80 billion trade deficit? That is, would it be $100 billion without Microsoft?

      I ask this, because if this is so, then it might explain why US policymakers seem to let Microsoft so easily off the hook for monopolistic practices - they are offsetting around 20% of the trade deficit right there.

      On the other hand, is perhaps this money not arriving to the US, but rather received only by "Microsoft Japan" (I assume there is such a thing)? If so, then from a trade deficit point of view, software sucks: you can pay all your salaries to programmers in the US, then make one copy and move it to Japan, and sell it for $20 billion, all of which stays in Japan and never reaches the original location that produced the code. You can't do this with cars and TVs.

      All of this seems odd, I am sure I am missing something. Economists, please explain :)
    31. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Same AC. You don't get it. The trade deficit is the value difference between the exports and imports, but it isn't measured by looking at the goods, it's measured by looking at the money that is exchanged for the goods. A trade deficit means that you (net-)export money. Money is a promise that you can buy goods and services with otherwise worthless pieces of paper. If you keep making promises in return for goods (racking up the tab), sooner or later someone is going to ask you to make good on those promises before they allow you to keep "paying with your name".

    32. Re:How long by daveschroeder · · Score: 1

      Yes. And that's regulated by the value of your "name" in the world economy. The exporters are taking our money for their products, and they're not obligated to. In any case, a trade imbalance such is this isn't healthy; I think on that point we both agree.

    33. Re:How long by composer777 · · Score: 1

      We still have the best scam artists here in America. We're still top notch at figuring out ways to rip people off.

    34. Re:How long by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      There's an easy way out- that each consumer needs to do. Refuse to buy. Treat Made In China as the warning label it should be. Just say no to buying. The resulting depression will fix the issue.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    35. Re:How long by SIIHP · · Score: 1

      "coughcoughLenovocough"

      Yeah that worked out great, buy a brand with great reliability, then rebrand it, losing the mindshare the previous brand had.

      I don't see why you think this is a good example.

      --
      I only go to buffets for the unlimited soft serve.
    36. Re:How long by SIIHP · · Score: 1

      "It's like a financial nuclear bomb, only the Chinese have the only trigger."

      No, actually, that's wrong.

      We could voluntarily default on the debt.

      --
      I only go to buffets for the unlimited soft serve.
    37. Re:How long by RexRhino · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And then, when you buy foreign made goods, that recycled money leaves the country, leaving you with less to purchase with. It is an entropic cycle, and will eventually fail. U.S. dollars only have value because they can be spent on U.S. goods. When the U.S. has a 'trade deficit', it means that those foreign countries are sitting on those dollars we send them (or, more likely, purchasing U.S. government bonds). We give them peices of paper (or nowadays, bits on a computer), and they send us DVD players and Barney toys.

      Eventually, they will spend those dollars on U.S. goods, as that is the only thing they are good for, or sell them to someone else who will spend those dollars on U.S. goods.

      International trade no longer takes place in gold... the countries we are trading with have no choice to buy U.S. goods eventually.
    38. Re:How long by pokerdad · · Score: 1

      The US is a huge consumer. They can't cut us out all the way.

      The point is that the US is on the road to broke, and if nothing is done to stop this trend you will cut yourselves out. Keep in mind that the companies selling you stuff and the companies lending you money aren't one and the same, and there may come a time when their interests will colide. When that day comes will it have massive global reprecussions - sure, but that doesn't mean that this trend will be allowed to continue forever.

    39. Re:How long by joggle · · Score: 3, Informative

      Is this $20 billion included in the $80 billion trade deficit? That is, would it be $100 billion without Microsoft?

      Yes, this is included in the trade deficit calculation so yes, if your numbers were correct then the deficit would be $100 billion without Microsoft. Washington state is one of the very few states with an international trade surplus in large part due to Microsoft and Boeing. Other companies with a trade surplus are restaurant chains that sell franchises overseas (such as Starbucks, McDonalds, and KFC).

      On the other hand, is perhaps this money not arriving to the US, but rather received only by "Microsoft Japan"

      The money is funneled through Microsoft Japan. Microsoft in Redmond still gets a slice of every license sold there (or at least for the great majority of licenses). In the case of restaurant chains usually the franchises are locally owned and operated so the American company only profits from the initial franchise sale and (sometimes) from the ingredients sold.

    40. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That brings us back to the original point: You can't keep buying stuff and only give promises in return. The bartender will stop accepting your promises (because he will start questioning the value of your promises). The fact that you're his "best customer" doesn't change that.

    41. Re:How long by aldousd666 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      england seems to be doing alright. what do they export? deficit doesn't mean 'debt' in case those of you hadn't caught on yet. All it means is we import more than we export. It is not a disaster. It's not even necessarily bad.

      --
      Speak for yourself.
    42. Re:How long by aldousd666 · · Score: 1

      services and intellectual property. it's called a post industrial society. there are a number of such countries on the planet. it's not bad, and we're not running out of wealth.

      --
      Speak for yourself.
    43. Re:How long by Thundercleets · · Score: 0

      The US is rapidly becoming a "Banana Republic" where cheap raw goods are traded for expensive finished goods.

      There is no way the US economy can sustain "the American way of life" if the majority of production and services are moved to cheap labor countries.

      This is what happens when you let multi-national companies set your forign policy.

    44. Re:How long by servognome · · Score: 1

      Microsoft in Redmond still gets a slice of every license sold there (or at least for the great majority of licenses).
      That only occurs if Microsoft decides to repatriate the money and pay taxes on it. Unless there is a compelling reason to do so it makes more sense to just keep that money in local banks.
      --
      D6 63 0D 70 89 81 BB 8E 7B 7C 5F 5D 54 EA AB 73
    45. Re:How long by RexRhino · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Wages are even higher in Europe, yet according to the story you import more electronics from Europe than you produce yourself. WRONG! According to the article, the U.S. imports more tech products from Europe than it does from Canada and Mexico (i.e. North America). It doesn't say anything about more tech goods being produced in Europe than the U.S..

      The U.S. actually maintains a trade surplus in tech good with Europe, to the tune of $13 billion... Europeans buy far more U.S. tech products than the U.S. buys European tech products. http://www.aeanet.org/PressRoom/prac_TCS_2007.asp

      China, and their cheap consumer electronics is where the overwelming majority of the U.S. deficit is coming from. Europe is in an even worse state in that regard.
    46. Re:How long by downix · · Score: 1

      They actually are a heavy exporter of textiles and chemical products. Also they export "cash" in that their banking system is heavily used by other countries.

      --
      Karma Whoring for Fun and Profit.
    47. Re:How long by Feynman · · Score: 1

      As Robert Reich discusses in his book, The Work of Nations, this is "vestigal thinking." Manufacturing ("making stuff") is not the only way to earn a profit. (Think consulting, for example.)

      As another poster noted, the future of the U.S. economy is in areas such as intellectual property and services (specifically those that need not be performed in person). Reich calls this "symbolic analysis."

    48. Re:How long by loftwyr · · Score: 1

      That $20billion (or so) that you mention is already accounted for. The trade deficit is a measure of (imports - exports). So, yes, it might be $100Billion without Microsoft but that really doesn't make a difference. Cars, food and other finished goods is the lion's share of what the US imports and exports.

      In your example, you're right in a way. The money from anything sold in Japan by Microsoft doesn't enter the US. It stays offshore to prevent paying taxes in the US. In fact, much of the money that comes from sales of US goods, even including those sold within the US, move offshore quickly to avoid US taxes. The money is moved to tax havens where the tax rates are very low. If enough of this happens, the company will set up a "Head office" offshore and claim to be a non-US company and pay almost no taxes.

      In Microsoft's case, the manufacture of the software (pressing the discs, packaging, etc.) is done outside the US. So even so many (not all, they use overseas programmers too) of their programmers are in the US, most of the money never sees a US bank. This is true for most large companies. So if Microsoft folded up and a thousand small companies were born (or at least could thrive without anti-competitive pressure) the US economy would be better off as the smaller companies would be more likely to use use manufacturing for their products.

    49. Re:How long by Bluesman · · Score: 1

      Haha, ok, you got me.

      I guess we could nuke New York, too, if we wanted.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    50. Re:How long by Bluesman · · Score: 1

      The trade imbalance is peanuts compared to the amount of dollars the Chinese hold in reserve currency. Even if we were to run a trade surplus with China, it would do very little about the treasury bills their government currently owns, and that we taxpayers pay interest to.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    51. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      See what the Anonymous Coward said at (#20332231). It explains how else the dollar keeps a value. Even though it is a badly written rant of a coward i found some truth in it.

    52. Re:How long by phlinn · · Score: 1

      "The trade deficit is the value difference..." is incorrect. It is the monetary price difference. Value is a different concept, which is often conflated with price, but is much more important. Examine the subjective theory of value for instance. Although the definition of value is contested, this is one of the most popular definitions, and the one that makes the most sense to me.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    53. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That would be nice.

      If they weren't shipping out the services jobs either.

      Face it, with the money workers earn in the West, it's hard to compete with someone who's willing to work for a quarter or less of what you're earning, and lives in a cheaper country in terms of cost of living, unless people start demanding quality again (And what's preventing the offshore worker from providing that? Moving up the value chain isn't a notion exclusive to the West).

      The only jobs that aren't going offshore are jobs like plumbing and construction. (Yay? I want my college money back?).

      Enlighten me how either (1) Our wages won't drop a ton (2) Companies won't outsource in a race to the bottom?

      Next you'll be telling me I'm not working hard enough or not being competitive enough :) What should I do, work 80 hour weeks?

    54. Re:How long by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Yes, but reserve currency is a bit like smoke- the US could, if we choose to, utterly destroy the entire Chinese investment in reserve currency merely by ending the printing of dollars and creating a new currency for use internal to the United States only. Very quickly the value of the "orphaned" US dollar would fall to the point that it would be just so much garbage.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    55. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's why I explained that "it's measured by looking at the money that is exchanged for the goods." It started with a bartender analogy, so you'll have to excuse if we're not going to use precise terminology here.

    56. Re:How long by CDarklock · · Score: 1

      But we do manufacture things to sell for profit. Sure, we brought most of our goods from overseas, but the profits realised at the point of sale usually ended up in an American company's coffers. Who cares what country did the work? I care who got the money.

      --
      Microsoft cheerleader, blue flag waving, you got a problem with that?
    57. Re:How long by Parasome · · Score: 1

      In principle, yes. However, I think your numbers are a bit off. You assume not only that there is one PC per Japanese citizen, but that every one of them gets a brand new copy of Windows every year, which clearly is not the case (I rather think that, like everywhere, the number of Windows sold in the private sector roughly equals the number of PCs sold). For the same reason, these sales would be at the Microsoft Tax level. Further excluding small children and the elderly (not so many non-tech people have more than one PC in active use), I'd reckon the estimate may be off by up to an order of magnitude, which would mean 2% (or maybe 4%) instead of 20%.

    58. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      LOL, and many of those "US" products the Europeans are buying were produced in China.

      The only good news there is that the Large Shareholders in those American companies are getting rich (and probably spending their money in Europe)

    59. Re:How long by RexRhino · · Score: 2, Insightful

      LOL, and many of those "US" products the Europeans are buying were produced in China. None. Most of those tech products European are buying from the U.S. are software, biotech and pharmaceuticals, aerospace technology, industrial electronics and robotics, etc., things that China doesn't export.

      China exports low cost consumer electronics, such as DVD players. That is because the cost of labor is the biggest single cost of consumer electronics. However, the cost of labor on a 787 is negligible, the cost of labor on an industrial CNC mill is negligible, the cost of labor on Adobe InDesign in negligible, the cost of labor on the newest cancer drugs are negligible.

      Europe buys their consumer electronics directly from China as well. That includes so-called "European" brands such as Nokia, which are mostly manifactured in China, India, or the less developed eastern european countries where labor is cheap, such as Romania.
    60. Re:How long by Ohreally_factor · · Score: 1

      You're going at it from the wrong direction. Before the Chinese bought IBM's PC operations, who'd heard of Lenovo? So, yes, they did leverage the old brand to build up the "new" brand. How would you propose that Lenovo keep the IBM brand? I don't think IBM is going to sell their name.

      Further, the OP wasn't just talking about the brand but about distribution/sales channels (specifically retail, but retail isn't the only channel that matters).

      --
      It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.
    61. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      man u r uber 1337

    62. Re:How long by SIIHP · · Score: 1


      You completely missed MY point in your rush to share your opinion. Lenovo took a well regarded product and renamed it in a way that destroyed any good will IBM had for their notebooks.

      "How would you propose that Lenovo keep the IBM brand?"

      License it. And that, among other things, is what I was talking about that you completely missed.

      "Further, the OP wasn't just talking about..."

      No, but I was so let's stick to what I was talking about specifically, and not points that I didn't address, mmmmk?

      --
      I only go to buffets for the unlimited soft serve.
    63. Re:How long by ChatHuant · · Score: 1

      As another poster noted, the future of the U.S. economy is in areas such as intellectual property and services (specifically those that need not be performed in person). Reich calls this "symbolic analysis."

      The problem I can see with this, regarding the US economy, is that all those areas are extremely portable. Moving car manufacturing (for example) from a country to another requires a *lot* of investment and infrastructure in the target country. For IP and many services the costs of such a move are much smaller, both in capital and infrastructure. With the growth in communications many services can be outsources (and many already are). Moreover, the few services that aren't easily portable (like waitressing or other personal services) are quite low tech, and therefore low paying. But IP stuff like software development can easily be outsourced (as many here know). I already heard about a number of medical services (for example, interpretation of X-rays) being outsourced to qualified physicians in India and other countries. Tax services too. Financial services can be outsourced as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't already.

      The US used to have a huge advantage in the high quality of the education, compounded by the fact that it managed to attract so many bright people from abroad. This is changing - many countries are improving their education infrastructure, and the US immigration policy is more and more skewed towards less qualified candidates. So the question is: in twenty years, what unique services will the US be able to offer in a competitive way?

    64. Re:How long by Wansu · · Score: 1


        The only jobs that aren't going offshore are jobs like plumbing and construction.

      Yeah but go to a construction site and tell me who you see working there.

      --
      Wansu, th' chinese sailor
    65. Re:How long by Solandri · · Score: 1

      And then, when you buy foreign made goods, that recycled money leaves the country, leaving you with less to purchase with. It is an entropic cycle, and will eventually fail.
      This assumes conservation of currency, which is not the case. The money supply is constantly increasing, to reflect the increase in wealth (stuff of value) within the U.S. as well as inflation. As long as the increase in wealth within the U.S. exceeds the amount of money being sent abroad (coupled with inflation devaluing money sent abroad), the cycle can continue indefinitely. Obviously it's not an ideal way to be operating, but it is sustainable under certain circumstances.
    66. Re:How long by Tango42 · · Score: 1

      I would imagine Microsoft Japan is a wholly (or at least majority) owned subsidiary of Microsoft (US), so Microsoft Japan's profits still end up in the US eventually.

    67. Re:How long by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      Now, assuming 1 PC per Japanese citizen (sure, not all have one, but some have more than one), that is over 100 million PCs.

      The school system in japan just moved to linux as a test bed for further linux deployment.

      Your redmond/japan trade recovery program is about to receive a "slight" bump in the road.

      http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS8141249791.html

      As for china the estimates are 90% of software is pirated, and secondly OSS is gaining
      massive ground there:

      http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/ar chives/2006/01/a_big_step_for.html

      Noticing a few more Asian's and Indian's engineers at your work place ?

      Hear of any companies that had their idea appear overseas and be reproduced
      and resold for much less, essentially ignoring all copyright/patents?

      World Trade is great if everyone honors the system of who invented it owns it,
      but that may not happen for some time.

      In the cult of cash, morality takes a back seat to the bottom line.

      I have said many times, in the long run, it is bad for accounting to
      be the primary consideration for engineering decisions.

      This applies for long term economic stability too, funny enough.

      Overseas labor has no OSHA, has no FDA, just ask ppl with dead pets
      from tainted chinese pet food, or ppl that used the tainted tooth paste.

      On a price point your no going to beat them unless you build robots
      here to do the labor for less than any other country can do it,
      and the sad fact is china or asia will end up making the robots for us.

      Any way you stack it the US is in a economic tailspin of its own design.

      The race for the bottom has begun.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    68. Re:How long by bryan1945 · · Score: 1

      I remember hearing something about this a while back, but I may be mis-remembering.

      Apparently, the gov group that determines trade surplus/deficit puts the value of software at the material value of the cardboard box and CD/DVD. Say $10 instead of $200. Something about how they have not upgraded how to figure out the value of things like software (not pure hardware).

      So your numbers are probably right, but the money is being under-reported so it looks like we have a huge deficit.

      --
      Vote monkeys into Congress. They are cheaper and more trustworthy.
    69. Re:How long by rastoboy29 · · Score: 1

      Your friends fatalism is a self fulfilling prophecy, and basically an excuse for cowardice.  He seems to think that he must have a monopoly to be successful.

      Instead of whining about unfair competition, he should actually fucking try it, instead.

    70. Re:How long by mutterc · · Score: 1

      The U.S. does manufacture things to sell for profit and export - music and movies.

      That's why the Powers That Be are so big on DRM and trying to stamp out IP piracy - it's not just about getting big campaign contributions from the "content industry", it's about protecting the only industry the U.S. has left.

    71. Re:How long by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      The only reason I could possibly see is if the US dollar were to become worthless, and better profits can be made elsewhere I don't know if you've been paying attention to the US dollar recently, but it's lost 25% of its value relative to the pound, and more relative to the Euro or Yuan in recent years. Of course, when it becomes uneconomical to sell things in the USA, it will become cheap to buy things from them (assuming they still remember how to make anything then), so it all evens out in the end. Unfortunately, the evening out process is likely to result in a substantial disruption in standard of living for a lot of people.
      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    72. Re:How long by drsquare · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The British economy is almost entirely based on debt. It's not a good example to follow. We have millions of people employed by the government doing non-jobs, their wages paid by private finance-initiatives, which means jobs otherwise done by the public sector are done by the private sector, at much higher cost and much less efficiency, but it looks good on the books as the cost can be deferred for twenty years, by which time all the current politicians will have retired and won't have to deal with it. Millions of people in Britain are buying things they can't afford on credit cards. It's a huge ticking time-bomb waiting to explode.

      Our 'sceptred' isle is overpopulated, millions of pensioners unable to work, but Gordon Brown has raped the pension fund, so we need millions of immigrants just to make ends meet. Once the supply of cheap labour runs out, the shit is going to hit the fan.

      In fact I'd say that Britain is the world's biggest pyramid scheme.

    73. Re:How long by big_paul76 · · Score: 1

      Actually, it's even worse. The US has a huge trade deficit AND a huge budget deficit.

      That usually means that your currency value ends up in the shitter.

      However, there's a few things going on here that keep that from happening.
      1) Everybody wants access to the US consumers. Americans shop more than almost any other country, basically they buy crap that you couldn't sell (at least not in these quantities) to very many other people
      2) Wealthy people all over the world see the US as the safest place to stash their cash. They see the US as the least likely to have an asian-flu type meltdown, or be taken over by maoists or something.

      Now, the second one is kind of like the emperor's new clothes or something, as long as everybody plays along, then everybody's fine. But if some of the highly mobile capital were to leave the US (estimates around the tens-of-trillions range) then the US is going to be in for a world of hurt.

      --
      The plural form of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", not "evidence".
    74. Re:How long by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Considering that the US still manufacture 3 times the product - by dollars - than China, and that the US' total manufacturing annual output is equal to the ENTIRE GDP of China, I'd say we're a LONG way from your position...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    75. Re:How long by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here is how the US balance of trade is financed:

      In 2006, the total U.S. trade deficit was $759 billion, which is $1455 billion in exports minus $2204 billion in imports.

      To finance the trade deficit, there was foreign purchase of about $350 billion in US Government securities (mainly by foreign governments).

      Foreign holdings of US corporate bonds increased about $450 billion, and foreign holdings of US stocks increased about $140 billion. Foreigners also directly invested about $180 billion into the US.

      So actually the trade deficit financed more by the purchase of US stocks and bonds than by the purchase of US Government securities. To finance the trade deficit, foreigners are investing in the US.

      Of course, Americans bought about $280 billion of foreign stocks and bonds, and made about $230 billion in direct investment in foreign countries as well in 2006.

      http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/inti nv/2007/intinv06.htm

    76. Re:How long by CodeBuster · · Score: 1

      so the "floor" is going to be lower, and workers in the U.S. are going to be in for some long term pain.

      Perhaps, but consider also the effect that such rapid growth is having on the Chinese population. The air is full of pollutants, up to twenty times worse than Los Angeles during the 1970s before the Clean Air Act (they are trying to get the smog down for the olympics by shutting down factories, banning cars, etc but it is still going to be a mess in 2008 because Beijing is such a dirty city). Their water is full of benzene, heavy metals, and agricultural chemical runoff. They operate lead smelters next to their rural schools and the people are being worked to death in the factories. At this rate the average life expectancy in China is going to be somewhere in the mid 50s for most of the population and they are poisoning their children with lead and mercury from so much dirty coal burning, so it may only take about 25 or 30 years for the "too many workers" thing to work itself out and not 50 or 100 as some other people are saying.

    77. Re:How long by FiniteElementalist · · Score: 1

      That's wrong, we have a trigger too: the printing press. (Or the federal reserve if you want to get technical)

      With all the bonds they hold, them pegging their currency to ours, and the amount they sell to the US a dose of hyperinflation could easily sink both of us. That would probably cause or follow a global financial crisis though.

    78. Re:How long by painlord2k · · Score: 1

      Maybe you don't know, but the new riches and the new middle class people in China, Taiwan and so on are spending their money building new homes, buying cars, etc. When the EU politicians cried about the [textile] trade deficits with China the Chinese officials remarked that to buy a single Airbus they need to manufacture and sell an helluva of T-shirts. Chinese are bigger customers of Russia for military tech because they lack the high tech and the trained workforce to build the high tech weapon systems themselves. So many $$$ go to Russia to buy military stuff. Then the Russians will spend the money to buy food and other stuff from US and EU or to finance the modernization of oil infrastructures and so on. Or they will spend money traveling like the Chinese middle class and new riches are doing now in increasing number. Chinese, Russians and so on are humans too; they work to be able to consume more. US have not a trade deficit, only a surplus of cash they are ridding themselves off exchanging with stuff and services imported from abroad.

    79. Re:How long by painlord2k · · Score: 1

      There are not "too many workers". And there were not. Never.
      Just now the Chinese workers are too few. This is because their wage continue to grow like their economy. They could have an excess of unskilled labor, but they have too few skilled, trained workers able to do any needed work.
      There are not enough skilled engineers, lawyers, physicians, etc. to cover all the growing need of the Chinese populations and staffing the industries to compete in the international market.

    80. Re:How long by dintech · · Score: 1

      True. While it's occupants have money to spend. When the government (and hence the people) are in massive debt to the rest of the world, it's unlikely you'll be generating enough surplus cash to afford luxury imports.

    81. Re:How long by bbdb · · Score: 1

      Enlighten me how either (1) Our wages won't drop a ton (2) Companies won't outsource in a race to the bottom?

      Because that hasn't happened in the past and this scenario has already been played in smaller scale with Japan?

      Japan several decades ago was a country of dirt-cheap wages, much like Phillipines now. When Japan got developed, its wages went up, to the point they are not competitive with USA even though their workers still get less purchasing power parity of their wages and work longer hours.

      Now, all that didn't make wages in USA go to the rocky bottom, did it?

      Hint: economy is not a fixed pie. Just because the other guy suddenly gets richer does not mean you have to get poorer. In fact you are probably slightly better off because he's much better off.

      Hint #2: the employment in manufacturing sector in China is... falling. That's right.

      --
      Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
    82. Re:How long by bbdb · · Score: 1

      Face it, with the money workers earn in the West, it's hard to compete with someone who's willing to work for a quarter or less of what you're earning, and lives in a cheaper country in terms of cost of living,

      What makes you think he's willing to continue this indefinitely? He would like to have exactly what you have. More: people in 1920s/1940s in USA were materially off exactly like he is now. The momen he becomes JUST AS PRODUCTIVE - which you haven't shown - he becomes less competitive. Which is exactly what happened in Japan or Korea. Or at Airbus now.

      unless people start demanding quality again (And what's preventing the offshore worker from providing that? Moving up the value chain isn't a notion exclusive to the West).

      I'm not an American or Western European. Yet, when facing purchase of a car, I could consider buyign new Hyundai or pay actually more for used BMW. I bought used BMW. I love it and would never buy that Korean crap. I don't think a guy who sold me that BMW went to Hyundai dealer. So most likely I have indirectly increased demand for cars made in Germany.

      It looks like this from the other end: developed countries have lots of advantages:
      1. The western wages are high because western countries have rule of law and lots of capital, which enable them to have high productivity. Wages are function of productivity and not the other way around.
      2. The quality of institutions outside first world is improving, but it still doesn't match. With higher corruption and worse functioning the other countries just _can't produce_ those goods that would supposedly put you out of work. The ones that are endangering your job are only just as good as you are or almost as good, but still hungry. This won't last forever, though.
      3. And last but not least, _robots cost the same_ in Japan and Sierra Leone (in fact they are more expensive, in many African countries bikes cost several hundred dollars, and Americans visiting Europe are routinely shocked with loftiness of prices).

      Take for example pharmaceuticals. What does it matter that Burkina Faso has cheap workers? It just doesn't have the infrastructure, rule of law, capital, peace, and workers educated enough to make new pharmaceuticals. In fact, the work of those people is cheap precisely because Burkina Faso doesn't have all those things, not the other way around!

      --
      Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
    83. Re:How long by IamTheRealMike · · Score: 1

      That entire post is a collection of non-sequiturs.

      Let's take it one at a time shall we? "The British economy is almost entirely based on debt". This is a meaningless statement. All modern capitalist economies are based on debt (not just the developed ones), this is how fiat currencies work. If you don't understand the role debt plays in the money supply system, I can see that it'd be confusing, but to say that is to imply other countries aren't. Money is debt. That's what our money systems are.

      I think what you want to say is that the UK economy does not produce much. This is provably false. The UK had exports of over $460 billion in 2006, in a variety of industries. Big ones include financial services, engineering, and tourism. To pick a random example, ARM is a successful British company whos chips power hundreds of millions of mobile phones, portable games consoles and so on. ARM does not manufacture its own chips - the Chinese do that. They design them, and take a cut on every chip sold. Foreigners pay the UK for all kinds of things. Just look at how many Chinese tourists there are in London. Is the UK paid as much as before? Well, no, but then "before" the UK had a world-spanning empire so that's not a useful standard to compare to.

      You say the island is overpopulated. Such a statement is meaningless. What population size would not be overpopulated? 30 million? 10 million? Nobody who makes statements like these ever attempts to quantify them, making them worthless. Those "millions of immigrants" incidentally are the only thing keeping the population stable, for what it's worth. Without them the UK would be in permenant population decline, leading to endemic shortages of skilled labor across the economy.

      Does the UK have problems? Yes. Is it "the worlds biggest pyramid scheme"? Please, don't be absurd. The UK economy is one of the strongest around right now. A pound is worth two dollars, unemployment is low, the economy is moving and air quality is high ... compared to other industrial countries like Japan, America or China it's not doing so bad at all.

    84. Re:How long by alexo · · Score: 1

      U.S. dollars only have value because they can be spent on U.S. goods

      and oil.

    85. Re:How long by RexRhino · · Score: 1

      and oil. And the people who export the oil then spend it on U.S. goods, or trade the currency with other people who want to spend it on U.S. goods. The people who export oil don't want to be paid in worthless currency.

      U.S. exports are about a trillion dollars a year, the global market for oil is at about 300 billion dollars a year. The U.S. is the single largest exporter, with even more exports than China! The demand for U.S. goods and services is where the value of U.S. currency ultimatly comes from.
    86. Re:How long by Paracelcus · · Score: 1

      The "new" economics (vastly simplified version) I hand you a piece of paper we both agree that it has an arbitrary value of (for the sake of argument) $.0003, I hand it to you and we both agree that it has increased in value to $.006 and we continue this charade until somebody notices that nothing has actually been created but by then we both are millionaires and no longer care.

      Drinks on the beach in Bimini anyone?

      The American economy lives by taking in it's own laundry, the stock market is a fraud, the ridiculous increase in real estate values are a fraud, just like the Tech "bubble" that we all know so well was a fraud (a well documented fraud).

      Sooner or later the chickens will come home, but by then the coop will have burned down and all the corn will have been sold to China and other countries that actually DO make something. Then the chickens will have to draw straws to see who gets eaten first (by the Chinese, the Indians, Etc).

      --
      I killed da wabbit -Elmer Fudd
    87. Re:How long by Ohreally_factor · · Score: 1

      Has IBM every licensed the IBM name to another manufacturer? AFAIK, they have not, but I could be wrong. (Did Hitachi license the IBM name? I can't find anything that says they did.) Lenovo did license the thinkpad name from IBM and I think a few others. Tell me exactly how they "destroyed" the good will? IBM sells Lenovo products (and owns a stake of Lenovo, the second biggest after the Chinese Government).

      Anyway, if I understand Lenovo's goals, they're trying to make Lenovo an international brand, so keeping the IBM name as a front would be counter-productive in the long run.

      --
      It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.
    88. Re:How long by alexo · · Score: 1

      > The people who export oil don't want to be paid in worthless currency.

      They may not have much choice due to signed agreements (backed by US military might).

      > U.S. exports are about a trillion dollars a year,
      > The U.S. is the single largest exporter, with even more exports than China!


      Correction, the US is in second place, just behind Germany, but it is very close.

      > the global market for oil is at about 300 billion dollars a year.

      I wonder where you got this information from.

      According to available sources, global oil import/export is a tad above 63 million barrels per day multiply it by the price per barrel (about $73.5/barrel at the time of the posting of this message) and by 365 days/year and you will get around $1.7 trillion.

  2. I only buy American electronics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fortunately, I live in a grass shack without electricity.

    1. Re:I only buy American electronics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I admire your noble savagery. Do you want some American aid?

    2. Re:I only buy American electronics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I admire your American snark. Do you want a cookie?

    3. Re:I only buy American electronics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ha, sucker! I'm not even an American!

  3. The US is lucky that the US-$ is a global currency by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    This way, everybody else chips in when the US has to devalue its currency to pay the debt.

  4. Seriously by Corpuscavernosa · · Score: 1, Interesting
    We need some massive changes. I think Aug 23 article Free Tuition for Math, Science, and Engineering? is at least a step in the right direction.

    Technological advances aside, how to we compete with close to free labor?

    --
    We figured out a long time ago that it's easier to elect seven judges than to elect 132 legislators.
    1. Re:Seriously by megaditto · · Score: 1

      how [do] we compete with close to free labor?


      By adressing the reasons the forced/slave labor is free, perhaps?
      --
      Obama likes poor people so much, he wants to make more of them.
    2. Re:Seriously by DM9290 · · Score: 1

      "Technological advances aside, how to we compete with close to free labor?"

      depends what you are talking about when you say "compete". And it depends on what you mean when you say "we".

      The real question should be how do we maximize the standard of living. It does not follow that america's standard of living is connected in any way with its competetiveness internationally.

      Your employer can be the most competetive corporate machine on the planet, while you live in squallor on the verge of starvation. In fact, that is probably more likely than not. If you have any luxury whatsoever then clearly your employer is paying you ABOVE the minimal cost of labour and it is in its best interest to figure out a way to pay you less.

      --
      No one has a right to their *own* opinion. They have a right to the TRUTH.
  5. Lots of trade defecits! by mjh · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Holy crap, I just realized that I have a *HUGE* trade deficit with the local grocery store. I purchase almost 100% of my food supplies from them and they purchase *NOTHING* from me! And my employer is in equally dire straights. They purchase a ton of service from me, and I only a tiny fraction of service from them. Dear heavens, the world may end!

    </sarcasm>

    Seriously, this is a non issue. If trade deficits were an issue, then the above trade deficits would also be an issue for you personally. But it so happens that having the above trade deficits makes you, the grocery store, and your employer wealthier by allowing you all to specialize.

    Nothing to see here. Move along.

    --
    Key to financial independence: Spend less than you earn. Save and invest the difference. Do it for a long time.
    1. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by saleenS281 · · Score: 1

      Right, except your company sells things to consumers, and the grocery store buys things from it's distributor. Who again are we selling to? The martians? We're at a deficit on all fronts... a country cannot survive as a consumerist entity, sorry.

    2. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by zoney_ie · · Score: 1

      You're missing the point - it's more like if you are paid less by your employer (and anyone else) than you spend at the grocery store, on accommodation, everything else. Eventually, even if you're living on credit, you'll not be able to sustain such a deficit.

      --
      -- *~()____) This message will self-destruct in 5 seconds...
    3. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by fishybell · · Score: 1
      Wow. I'm so happy now that your oversimplified analogy has shown me the light of how big countries are just like people.


      It's just like when you inflate a balloon and bad stuff happens.

      --
      ><));>
    4. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Magnus+Pym · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If you abstract out enough, all you need is to eat, shit and sleep.

      In practice, things are not that simple.

      Have you any idea how much the dollar is falling w.r.t. international currencies? The pound is more than 2 dollars now. Do you know what the implications of this are?

      Hint: In the short term, a weak dollar might help local manufacturers, but it will devastate the middle class because inflation will follow shortly.

      Magnus

    5. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree - total none issue. As long as you, no person or company that you conduct any type of financial transaction with and the government you pay taxes to never export or import anything you'll be fine.

    6. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      If trade deficits were an issue, then the above trade deficits would also be an issue for you personally.

      Except that your example can be made a closed loop: I sell labor to the farm, the farm sells goods to the distributor, the distributor sells goods to the grocer, the grocer sells goods to me, and I continue to sell my labor to the farm.

      What are we selling to the Chinese? If they have no reason to use US dollars to buy things, why should they continue to accept US dollars?

    7. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by ShatteredArm · · Score: 1

      If they want to give us stuff for pieces of paper, I'm all for it.

      I never understood what the big issue with the trade deficit is. It's NOT a debt. They're not giving us stuff and expecting something in return later, we're buying stuff with our currency. And as Friedman pointed out, even if they don't send the currency back by buying our stuff, it's just as if they're giving us stuff for cheaply made pieces of paper.

      Trade deficit alarmism is pseudo-economics at its finest.

    8. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by stevesliva · · Score: 1

      Seriously, this is a non issue.
      I agree that it's not been an issue. And I agree that protectionism solves nothing.

      But I am concerned about productivity growth in the growing number of service jobs that are left here. The WSJ had a very interesting article about how it may become more challenging to make things that you can export, like healthcare and food service, more and more productive every year. I'd guess we'd better hope that the productivity gains of overseas economies can be imported in that case.
      --
      Who do you get to be an expert to tell you something's not obvious? The least insightful person you can find? -J Roberts
    9. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by sholden · · Score: 1

      Except of course your deficit with the grocery store is balanced by your surplus with your employer. And the grocery store's surplus with you is balanced by their deficit with their suppliers, and so on... Though you might be one of the many Americans who are running a net deficit themselves, and now that credit is tightening that's going to cause a world of hurt.

      The US trade deficit is balanced by foreign entities collecting US dollars. Since they can't do anything else with those dollars they just loan them back to the US (buying T-bill for example). Basically the US buys stuff from China and pays them with US dollars, which they then loan back to the US so it can buy more stuff.

      The US has the advantage that unlike an individual it can just devalue the dollar and pay it all back by running the printing press...

      But you are right, that a trade deficit isn't the end of the world, and a trade deficit in a particulr sector (tech...) is a complete non-issue. Just means the US sucks as tech relative to the rest of the world...

    10. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by ShatteredArm · · Score: 1

      The grocery store needs to sell something so it can have money to buy something. If we're exporting things in exchange for currency, the trade partner can do one of two things with that currency: (a) send it back in the form of a purchase or investment, and (b) burn it.

    11. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Jackie_Chan_Fan · · Score: 1

      Just wait until you cant afford to purchase those food supplies... you'll know why :)

    12. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by tepples · · Score: 1

      If we're exporting things in exchange for currency, the trade partner can do one of two things with that currency: (a) send it back in the form of a purchase or investment But if all our trading partners have enough of our currency, they can bid up the price of things in our currency, and the global purchasing power of our currency dwindles.
    13. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's difficult to tell the exact classifications, but the article and source materials talk a lot about products and goods. It's not clear whether that includes services. After all, where a chip is made matters a lot less for value creation that where the chip was designed. And the value created by Google is probably not counted anywhere here.

      I think we should be very careful of drawing conclusions from this.

    14. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by ShatteredArm · · Score: 1

      But in the end, that currency can only be spent in the US, so in order for it to have any real value to our trading partners, it has to be sent back. Even if our currency does get devalued abroad, is it really that big a deal? If at some point we can't afford imports, we'll just have to start manufacturing stuff, and that's what is being proposed as the "solution" anyways.

    15. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by ErikZ · · Score: 1

      Oh no! My budget for importing scones has gone through the roof!

      --
      Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
    16. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Somebody pay you? Congratulations, you're not running a deficit.

      No one is paying the USA.

    17. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by nuzak · · Score: 1

      > If you abstract out enough, all you need is to eat, shit and sleep.

      Yeah, except when someone craps where you sleep. Then we get laws to stop that.

      (Go listen to Lenny Bruce's "Eat, Sleep, and Crap" sometime. It's great stuff)

      It'd be nice actually, for my own country, the USA, to be taken down so many pegs that no one will harbor any more illusions about us being the emperors of the world, and maybe we'll all stop having to shoulder the cost of petty leaders, but I imagine we'll take the rest of the world down in a fit of infantile rage as it happens. Oh well, civilization was nice while it lasted.

      --
      Done with slashdot, done with nerds, getting a life.
    18. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Also, I'm reminded that the decline of the empires of the past generally started with foreign borrowing.

      I'm wondering if it could reach a point where our best course would be nationalization of foreign-owned assets.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    19. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by nuzak · · Score: 1

      > It's NOT a debt.

      All fiat money is short-term debt, actually. If all debts were settled today, the money would vanish. When the debt gets held where it won't circulate here, we issue some more debt, and that devalues the currency.

      Have you noticed where the dollar is? Yes, that helps us import more goods cheaply ... which just feeds the cycle.

      > Trade deficit alarmism is pseudo-economics at its finest.

      So is a hand-waving dismissal over their effects. Mercantilism is dead, but it doesn't mean deficits are harmless.

      --
      Done with slashdot, done with nerds, getting a life.
    20. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Ajehals · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Minor problem with that theory.

      Firstly the Us sends them dollars, they need dollars to buy oil, so they sell the US things in exchange for dollars which they exchange for oil. The oil producers then have lots of Dollars and are happy, they buy things from all over the world in dollars (because everyone needs dollars for oil).

      The problem arises when the dollar becomes less stable and loses value, at that point the oil producers either take a hit and make less profits, increase the price of oil (which means people want dollars even more badly and may increase the dollars value thus solving the problem in the short term, but pushes up process of anything that needs transporting or oil in some other way...) or they can switch to a more stable currency.

      If they switch to a more stable currency then the dollar sinks, the global economy takes a huge hit, but when the dust settles, the US is in a bad way because no one wants dollars anymore, as are all these countries that peg their currency to the dollar and whoever replaced the dollar as the currency of choice is sitting pretty.

      People don't swap goods for useless paper, they swap goods for paper that they feel will get them the things that they need, the moment that stops that paper really does become worthless and no one will want it, bad news if you need to buy things from abroad because you don't have a manufacturing base anymore and no one wants to buy your services.

    21. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      What are we selling to the Chinese? IOUs... Ones your children will have to pay for.

      No... Really...

      --
      Deleted
    22. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by wumpus188 · · Score: 1

      all you need is to eat, shit and sleep.


      Damn right. Sex is too abstract for /.
    23. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Znork · · Score: 1

      "It's NOT a debt."

      Actually, yes it is. A trade deficit has to be balanced by currency movements, such as loans or investments. US banks sell mortgage backed securities abroad, Chinese buy US corporations, etc. The investment part isnt really a problem (except, perhaps, for American pride), but the loan part is. If the creditors confidence that they will get their money back is shaken, then they will both demand their money back immediately (if the security is insufficient, such as a house that has fallen in value) and demand higher interest for further loans.

      At that point the power of the Fed to set rates becomes more limited; lower them and the US (state and banks) wont be able to borrow, resort to printing money and you get inflation, dollar depreciation and you have to raise interest again.

    24. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Znork · · Score: 1

      "The US has the advantage that unlike an individual it can just devalue the dollar and pay it all back by running the printing press..."

      Mmm, you know, that's been tried before. As a strategy for loan repayment it usually doesnt work that well.

      At the first hint of printing presses running to cover US debt, everyone would unload dollars like they were monopoly money, it would become almost impossible for the US or any Americans to borrow any more money, inflation and interest rates would skyrocket. Americans with savings would have to move them out of the country or find them devalued along with everything else.

      In the long run it would probably solve the trade deficit, but I suspect that would be one of the most disruptive ways imaginable to solve the problem. Considering the situations in other countries that have gone through hyperinflation one could expect anything from wars with creditor countries to a revolution to ensue.

    25. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So when you go to work and earn "pieces of paper" you're quite happy with that? I'm sure.

      Wait to see how many pieces of paper it takes to buy stuff when the other countries that you have massive trade deficits decide they don't want your paper anymore.

      You see, the US doesn't have the manufacturing capabilities anymore to replace all the goods that you have become accustomed to having available.

      But hey, just ignore the reality, TV says everything is ok!

    26. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by tepples · · Score: 1

      If at some point we can't afford imports, we'll just have to start manufacturing stuff, and that's what is being proposed as the "solution" anyways. Manufacturing stuff out of what? Will the United States dollar always have the purchasing power to import energy and raw materials?
    27. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by sholden · · Score: 1

      Yes, all of that is what I mean by "devalue the dollar".

    28. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      What are we selling to the Chinese? We're selling control. China has a huge stockpile of US dollars. If the Chinese were to dump their dollars on currency markets, the value of the US dollar plummets. US dollars are held by most governments around the world. If the Chinese dump theirs, why would Korea/Japan/Saudi Arabia/Smogaria stand by and watch the value of their dollars drop like a stone? They'll all dump if China dumps. If that happens, the cost of living in the US skyrockets overnight since the US imports most of its goods. Consequently, the US will not publicly oppose China on anything substantial.
    29. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by jcr · · Score: 1

      Seriously, this is a non issue.

      Friedman pointed out in the mid-80's that over the entire history of European settlements in what is now the USA, from the founding of the Jamestown colony to the present, there's only been about fifty years in which we were not running a trade deficit.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    30. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by ShatteredArm · · Score: 1

      The US can get raw materials from the same place anybody else gets them--out of the ground. What we are purchasing is really nothing more than cheap labor. Although, the countries that export raw materials don't have their hands tied by environmental agencies like we do... So you may have a point there. ;)

    31. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by Discoflamingo13 · · Score: 1

      Thank you! Funniest thing I've read today!

    32. Re:Lots of trade defecits! by tepples · · Score: 1

      The US can get raw materials from the same place anybody else gets them--out of the ground. In addition to your point about environmental differences, not all countries have the same raw materials in the ground. Given a significant decline in the international value of the U.S. dollar, how would U.S. industry afford to purchase those raw materials that cannot be sourced within the U.S.?
  6. I bet our OIL was up! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You didn't see Bush stopping in Michigan on his trip a few months ago telling them how great the nations economy was! Its fairly obvious that we are producing so much less on every level in this country, wait till the FDIC tells the country it doesn't' have enough cash to cover all the failed mortgage companies, and the new loaning technique work hard to remove the PMI protection for the lender. 80/15/5 or 80/20 We need a large change in the way government works or this country is going into a large slide down hill.

    1. Re:I bet our OIL was up! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I dislike Bush as much as the next guy, but how is the fact that GM, Ford & Chrysler has a lousy product mix and that the UAW are lazy, stupid & greedy Bush's fault?

      Toyota & Honda are making record profits and are hiring Americans. Nothing wrong with the auto industry.

    2. Re:I bet our OIL was up! by sethstorm · · Score: 1

      Nothing a tariff can't fix.

      --
      Twitter supports and protects racists - by smearing their critics with the "Hate Speech" label.
  7. If this keeps on... by dtjohnson · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...we'll end up living in huts made of logs and sod, driving pushcarts full of firewood, and eating soybeans. Seriously, doesn't 'trade' mean an 'exchange' of goods and services? Obviously, the exchange is not happening, just a transfer of currency.

    1. Re:If this keeps on... by veganboyjosh · · Score: 1

      ...we'll end up living in huts made of logs and sod, driving pushcarts full of firewood, and eating soybeans. Seriously, doesn't 'trade' mean an 'exchange' of goods and services? Obviously, the exchange is not happening, just a transfer of currency.

      and that's why i'm getting used to eating tofu now, so that i won't have to later...

    2. Re:If this keeps on... by Ohreally_factor · · Score: 1

      Let's just hope that the logs and sod, the pushcarts, and the soybeans aren't all imported.

      --
      It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.
    3. Re:If this keeps on... by Jaysyn · · Score: 1
      --
      There is a war going on for your mind.
    4. Re:If this keeps on... by Eponymous+Bastard · · Score: 1

      Seriously, doesn't 'trade' mean an 'exchange' of goods and services? Obviously, the exchange is not happening, just a transfer of currency. Hence trade deficit.

    5. Re:If this keeps on... by theophilosophilus · · Score: 1

      ...we'll end up living in huts made of logs and sod, driving pushcarts full of firewood, and eating soybeans. Seriously, doesn't 'trade' mean an 'exchange' of goods and services? Obviously, the exchange is not happening, just a transfer of currency.

      QUESTION: What do the Chinese do with all of that currency?

      The majority of posters on this board misunderstand how currency works. A dollar is a promise to provide goods or services in the future. By the understanding of the parent, all our money is going to the Chinese to buy electronics and that is a bad thing (i.e. "the exchange is not happening"). However, all the Chinese have purchased with their electronics is paper. The value of currency only comes when the Chinese purchase something from us with that paper (or digital) currency. If the "exchange is not happening" then we have received free stuff because the Fed and Treasury will simply create more paper.

      The reality is that the Chinese are not just sitting on currency. They are buying from us and the exchange is happening. The Chinese just aren't exchanging the same types of things, hence the "deficit." The Chinese are investing in American debt. The housing boom (aka bubble) has been financed by the Chinese, which is a great thing. With the coming burst of the bubble, the Chinese are the ones set to loose on their investment.

      The reality is that we basically got free electronics and Slashdotters are whining about job loss. What do you think free (as in beer) software does economically?

      --
      Why have 1 person driving a backhoe when you could employ 20 with shovels?
    6. Re:If this keeps on... by HungWeiLo · · Score: 1

      Honda exports $2 billion worth of soybeans to Japan every year, in containers which carry car parts to the U.S..

      --
      There are a huge number of yeast infections in this county. Probably because we're downriver from the bread factory.
    7. Re:If this keeps on... by Ohreally_factor · · Score: 1

      Well, there you have it. We won't need to import logs and sod if we build our houses out of tofu. It'd have to be extra firm, of course.

      --
      It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.
  8. No such thing as a Trade Deficit by monxrtr · · Score: 1, Informative

    By definition of trade, something is given away and something is received in exchange. There is no deficit whatsoever that occurs from any single instance of trade, even if that trade involves promises to repay at a future time. Also, trade only occurs because that which is received is valued more than that which is given away in exchange. Thus, both parties *profit* from every instance of trade, at the moment of trade. That's the only reason trade occurs.

    Talk of "trade deficits" is political manipulation designed to bamboozle the uninformed. Anyone who believes "deficits" result from trade is as gullible as the Emperor's New Clothes.

    --
    "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
    1. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by geeknado · · Score: 1

      That's true to a degree, but it's troubling in that it highlights the continuing degradation of the US's manufacturing capabilities. We've clearly shifted more towards a service-oriented economy, but that's only increasing the size of our unskilled underclass...There simply aren't as many good career paths for a high school graduate with no additional training. "Trade deficits" are not necessarily a problem in and of themselves, but they can be symptomatic of actual issues of concern.

    2. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by monxrtr · · Score: 1

      No, there's no such thing as a trade deficit, EVER! They are not a problem because they don't exist, EVER! They aren't symptoms either, because they don't exist, EVER! If there was any negative "deficit" which could theoretically result from trade at the time of trade, people would not *voluntarily* trade thing A for thing B, EVER! Trade always and only voluntarily occurs, and it only occurs because both sides increase their wealth by trading, ALWAYS!

      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
    3. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Thus, both parties *profit* from every instance of trade, at the moment of trade. That's the only reason trade occurs. Talk of "trade deficits" is political manipulation designed to bamboozle the uninformed...

      You don't understand. Other countries are proping up our economy so that they can continue to export like the dickens. You would probably say this is a good thing: if they want to subsidize us by buying our stocks, real-estate, etc., then let them. However, it creates huge risk of having that carpet yanked out from under us when either they want to yank us around, or some other world crisis causes them to suddenly stop the investing.

      As I described elsewhere, optimizing the economy is more than maximizing total GDP. Yes, free trade (with deficits even) will indeed maximize total GDP. I have no argument there. However, it does create more risk, among other downsides. These are sometimes called "externalities" by economists, and they debate how important they are. Right-leaning economists will tend to dismiss externalities while left-leaning ones focus more on them.

      Think of it this way: for personal investments you are taught to diversify your portfolio by mixing high-risk and low-risk investments. High-risk investments usually pay more, but add uncertainty. Our economy is moving toward the high-risk end by giving up manufacturing and other offshored specialties. If WW-III starts, do we really want nothing but a nation of sales executives? Lack of economic diversity can kill us all. It is a dangerous game being played by W and Co.

    4. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by lawpoop · · Score: 2, Insightful

      By definition of trade, something is given away and something is received in exchange. That would be true if, for example, the US and China were trading material goods in exchange for material goods, but international trade is the exchange of material goods for paper money. It's starting to appear to me that this fractional reserve currency is basically a shell game, or musical chairs, and every so often the system crashes, with winners and losers. So it may actually be a problem if you have an actual material trade imbalance in order to play a shell game. And China is starting to look like it's holding the chips in this round of the game.
      --
      Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
      -- Pablo Picasso
    5. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by SIIHP · · Score: 1

      "However, it creates huge risk of having that carpet yanked out from under us when either they want to yank us around, or some other world crisis causes them to suddenly stop the investing."

      And ruin their own economy, and their own, in the process.

      You people always leave this part out of your fear mongering.

      --
      I only go to buffets for the unlimited soft serve.
    6. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by tepples · · Score: 1

      If there was any negative "deficit" which could theoretically result from trade at the time of trade, people would not *voluntarily* trade thing A for thing B, EVER! What is commonly called a "trade deficit" actually shows up in the devaluation of the United States dollar. The dollar will not have as much purchasing power as it had pre-1971, EVER!
    7. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by spicate · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Also, trade only occurs because that which is received is valued more than that which is given away in exchange. Thus, both parties *profit* from every instance of trade, at the moment of trade. By your logic, no one ever is on the losing end of a trade. Reality is full of counter examples. You're making the implicit assumption that people (or businesses) are perfectly rational actors with complete knowledge. They aren't - see the last 50 years or research in the social sciences.

      There is no deficit whatsoever that occurs from any single instance of trade, even if that trade involves promises to repay at a future time. Just to give you one example of how this is wrong... Material goods may depreciate at a different (faster?) rate than currency does. So if I give you cash for a car, that car will be worth at lot less in 5 years than the value I paid for it. You can't assume that somehow the use of that car balances out the difference, because the car depreciates EVEN IF YOU DON'T USE IT. New, better cars are on the market, and people buy those cars instead of your older model. Thus, people lose money in the trade... it happens all the time. If you borrowed to make your purchase in the first place, then you are doubly screwed.

    8. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by geeknado · · Score: 1

      No no, he's shouting louder than I am. He must be correct!

    9. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      they don't exist, EVER! And your promise of future exchange? If you fail to keep that promise, then what?

      people would not *voluntarily* trade thing A for thing B, EVER! Oh wait, thats what, and that's exactly what people are warning against. Claiming that trade is always possible by waving around some stale economic pseudoscience doesn't make it true. You can spend all day arguing about things like comparative advantage, but if Country A's best product is polished turds nobody wants, they're going to have to learn to make something else.

      because both sides increase their wealth by trading, ALWAYS! Capitalizing random words does not magically make the shortcomings of your economic model disappear (namely, where the hell are you going to find a rational person on this planet?) Here's a question, if you get a cheap $25 dvd player, are you actually wealthier? You may have obtained an object that you might be able to get $5 for at a pawn shop, but what's the opportunity cost of having $25 cash vs. having a DVD player?
    10. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by TubeSteak · · Score: 5, Informative

      By definition of trade, something is given away and something is received in exchange. There is no deficit whatsoever that occurs from any single instance of trade, even if that trade involves promises to repay at a future time.
      ...
      Talk of "trade deficits" is political manipulation designed to bamboozle the uninformed. Anyone who believes "deficits" result from trade is as gullible as the Emperor's New Clothes. Do you even understand what's being discussed here? TFA is saying that in the electronics sector, we are buying more than we are selling. It has nothing to do with 1-to-1 business transactions.

      My country buys 10 billion [currency] worth of widgets from your country
      Your country buys 5 billion [currency] worth of widgets from mine
      My country has a trade deficit of 5 billion [currency] in the widget sector.

      It's imports vs exports.
      When imports do not = exports, you have an imbalance.

      For your nonsensical post to be correct, we would have to be buying and selling widgets in equal quantities. Hint: we aren't.

      I really can't understand how anyone moderated you up.
      This stuff isn't that hard.
      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    11. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by bwt · · Score: 1

      You don't understand. Other countries are proping up our economy so that they can continue to export like the dickens.

      Um, no -- YOU don't understand. The US has the leading economy in the world. To suggest other countries are "proping up our economy" is patently absurd.

      A trade deficit measures money that is exchanged for goods. Whether or not it is a "good thing" or a "bad thing" is impossible to say without knowing what the goods are and whether their net value appreciates faster than the money that was traded. It's a very bad assumption to assume that all goods are simple consumables. Look at it this way -- many, many companies run a net trade deficit as they grow. That's precisely why they sell stock: to raise capital to finance their trade deficit. You build a factory and start selling widgets. It takes a while to pay for the factory, so the company has a net trade deficit, but this doesn't measure the increased value of the company which appreciated in place. What matters is how fast you are creating wealth and how you fare compared to your competitors. The US is quite comfortable on both points and the trade deficit is completely irrelevent. In fact, it probably is a good thing as it indicates we believe we can create wealth faster with goods than by holding our money.

      I would worry if we run a trade surplus, because it would mean we were accumulating liquidity faster than we could find profitable places to invest it. Consider a wise real estate investor: does he run a trade surplus or deficit? Provided real estate appreciates faster than money (which it does), he'd WANT to run a deficit.

    12. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 1

      Of course if people let you arbitrarily redefine the meaning of common terms to mean whatever you want, you can't lose an argument, EVER!

    13. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by russ1337 · · Score: 1

      >>> What matters is how fast you are creating wealth....

      I'm no economist, but I know there is a difference between investment and consumption.

      And, (here's the kicker) consumption does not generally create wealth.

      (Unless, of course, you can find someone to BUY your trash instead of having to PAY them to take it / bury it / what ever..)

    14. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by locofungus · · Score: 1

      "No, there's no such thing as a trade deficit, EVER!"

      Rubbish.

      China lends money to the US in return for interest plus the capital repayment at some point in the future. The interest that the US has to pay is a reflection of how risky that investment is for the Chinese. The trade in this case is an exchange of risk for interest, NOT an exchange of risk plus capital for interest (unless you are presupposing that the US is going to renege on repaying it's T bills)

      The US then uses those funds to buy _consumables_ from the Chinese. The US now has a deficit because it still owes the money that it borrowed but it no longer has the asset to repay it.

      While the US economy is growing this might not be a problem because the net assets of the US might be growing faster than the outflux of money. But there is still a trade deficit.

      The same logic applies if the US uses reserves to buy the consumables. Both sides might agree that doing the deal is better for them than not doing the deal but the US still sees a net outflow of assets and this is what is called a trade deficit.

      Tim.

      --
      God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = -@B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t," and there was light.
    15. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by CaptainZapp · · Score: 1

      but international trade is the exchange of material goods for paper money.

      OK, this may be a nitpick, but it's most likely not paper money.

      The relation of paper money to "book money" (currencies which are moved between accounts) is minuscule in the monetary system.

      If everybody at the same time would appear at a bank teller and ask for their deposits in cash the entire monetary system would be fuxored.

      Case in point: Compare the rates for paper money with the currency rates and you'll find a huge difference. This is because it's far more expensive to move and handle the physical product (bank notes and coins).

      Interbank transactions are virtually always movements of debts and credits between accounts.

      --
      ich bin der musikant

      mit taschenrechner in der hand

      kraftwerk

    16. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Er, it seems to be too hard for you to understand that the deficit is covered by *gasp* money!
      If you are willing to part with money to obtain goods (or services), then the goods or services must mean more to you. SO you profit. The seller profits because he wants the money, presumably to buy something else. So, in your own widget example, if you simply understand that money is a tradeable commodity (in the form of a negotiable instrument) that covers the shortfall in the barter(?), then you will understand his argument.

    17. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by lawpoop · · Score: 1

      I guess you are right -- they are trading material goods for book money -- but what I actually meant was that you are trading a material good for something with no inherent value -- paper money, book money, whatever you want to call it. I can't understand money other than it simply being an IOU, for the exchange of a good or service at some point in the future, from anyone trading in that currency. So, as poster was saying that trade is inherently fair and profitable for both sides, I argue that's only true when you are trading like materials. You can trade goods for goods, songs for songs, but when you trade materials for IOUs, I don't think that that's an inherently fair exchange.

      --
      Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
      -- Pablo Picasso
    18. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by CaptainZapp · · Score: 1

      I didn't intend to challenge your argument. I just couldn't let the "paper money" bit stand; as a database developer at an investment bank. :)

      --
      ich bin der musikant

      mit taschenrechner in der hand

      kraftwerk

    19. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Bluesman · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You are completely right as far as your economic analysis.

      But what's truly worrying is not that we have a trade deficit, which isn't necessarily bad. What bothers people are the political implications of other countries owning massive quantities of the U.S. public debt. The real cause of this is the U.S. government inflating its currency to pay for expensive political projects and favors (like, say, wars, subsidies, social security, and medicare prescriptions); the trade deficit only exacerbates the problem.

      The largest hidden tax on U.S. citizens is inflation of the dollar, but we really don't see it beyond 4 or 5 percent because other countries until now have highly valued the U.S. dollar, keeping dollars and treasury bills as a stable reserve currency.

      Our government is spending money like it's going out of style, and they're just printing more dollars to pay for a lot of it. The Chinese hold enough of the U.S. debt that they could sell off their dollar reserve and create a global "run on the bank" as every country in the world tries to sell off the dollars they hold in reserve before the selling price hits rock bottom.

      At that point, you'd see the value of the dollar cut in half or more overnight, and there would be massive panic and depression. The point is, there is NOTHING we could do to stop this. The Chinese hold all the cards in this scenario. The fact that the U.S. government let this happen is a complete abrogation of responsibility on their part. Should we find ourselves in a small recession and tax revenue drops, causing the government to devalue the currency enough that the Chinese want out, a small recession could turn into a huge depression.

      Now, will this happen? That depends. Do you think the U.S. government will reign in spending, save social security by severely cutting benefits, tell people that universal health care is an economic impossibility in our current condition, eliminate the prescription drug plan, and remove all agricultural subsidies and not start any wars?

      Or will they continue spending as they have been and pretend nothing's wrong so long as they get elected, while their financial advisors are buying gold, real-estate, and bullets in record numbers?

      I'm betting on #2.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    20. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by KevinIsOwn · · Score: 1

      And what exactly are your qualifications to use caps so damn much? You better have more than econ 101 under your belt to talk with such an air of self imposed authority.

    21. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by lawpoop · · Score: 1

      No, and I'm not trying to argue back. But as you pointed out, I was using incorrect terminology, and I thank you for the correction and the opportunity to clarify my point :)

      --
      Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
      -- Pablo Picasso
    22. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Anspen · · Score: 1

      The worst part is that even at 50% of todays value China would still be cheaper for moest production. Especially since most recources are priced in dollars. Inflation would skyrocket in the US.

    23. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by servognome · · Score: 1

      We've clearly shifted more towards a service-oriented economy, but that's only increasing the size of our unskilled underclass...There simply aren't as many good career paths for a high school graduate with no additional training.
      Programming & design can be considered service jobs.
      --
      D6 63 0D 70 89 81 BB 8E 7B 7C 5F 5D 54 EA AB 73
    24. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by geeknado · · Score: 1

      Is it really easy for most people without any additional education coming out of our public high schools to get jobs in either the programming or design fields? Mind, I actually did something like that...My degree is decidedly not in C.S...But I haven't encountered many people in the industry who have had any real success without at least /some/ college in their background.

    25. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Look, when the US runs out of money due to these deficits and there is nothing that all these US currency holders want to buy that the US makes, the only thing left for them to buy will be the very land upon which you live. And all the jobless frightened greedy US citizens will gladly take short term money offered for their homes and land when the offers come rolling in.

      I can't see how any of you could not take this seriously.

    26. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by servognome · · Score: 1

      Is it really easy for most people without any additional education coming out of our public high schools to get jobs in either the programming or design fields?
      As technology, tools, and access to information have improved it's become much easier for people to get into those fields. Used to be you couldn't make a metal widget without having been an apprentice, now you don't even need to know anything about metallurgy or machining, u just run a tool.
      --
      D6 63 0D 70 89 81 BB 8E 7B 7C 5F 5D 54 EA AB 73
    27. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No kidding.

      For any youngsters out there, there has been dire talk of the sky falling because of U.S. trade deficits since the 1970's (or even before, that's as far back as I can remember). In all those decades, the U.S. economy has been (generally) booming.

      This is irrelevant nonsense.

    28. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by geeknado · · Score: 1

      You're right, but my point was that so much manufacturing is being pushed overseas that it's difficult to get manufacturing jobs here /period/, regardless of how difficult or easy that work is. I don't think that it's become so easy to program that the simplicity you're describing applies to IT. Maybe I'm missing the thrust of your point?

    29. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by monxrtr · · Score: 1

      And your promise of future exchange? If you fail to keep that promise, then what? Then the subjective value of that promise changes to a lower value than it had in the past (present tense) at the time the trade occurred. That's why free market institutions such as credit ratings agencies, down payments, collateral, clearing houses, etc. evolved, because promises have risk, and are not constantly valued the same, just as nothing is constantly valued the same.

      Claiming that trade is always possible by waving around some stale economic pseudoscience doesn't make it true. You can spend all day arguing about things like comparative advantage, but if Country A's best product is polished turds nobody wants, they're going to have to learn to make something else. No, no TRADE, will ever occur unless *by definition* both person A and person B increase their wealth at the time good A is exchanged for good B. It doesn't matter what good A or good B are. Absolutely everything is extrinsically subjectively valued, and is never constant. What's subjectively valued as "gold" one minute can be subjectively valued as "polished turds nobody wants" the next minute. Trade only occurs when each parties values the other party's good more than their own, no matter what the goods are. Trade will never ever occur otherwise.

      Capitalizing random words does not magically make the shortcomings of your economic model disappear (namely, where the hell are you going to find a rational person on this planet?) Just trying to emphasize indisputable full set possibility PROOF. There is no other existing possibility. And absolutely every person acts with imperfect knowledge. Nobody is omniscient.

      Trade only occurs because that which is received is valued MORE than that which is given away in exchange. Any other possible explanation would be a nonsensical absurdity. QED. There's no "economic" model involved in this. This is strict epistemological elucidation.

      Here's a question, if you get a cheap $25 dvd player, are you actually wealthier? Of course you are wealthier! If buying a $25 dvd player didn't make you wealthier, you wouldn't off traded $25 for the dvd player, you would have been better off keeping your $25. By definition you are better off with the dvd player, otherwise you wouldn't have voluntarily exchanged the $25 for it.

      You may have obtained an object that you might be able to get $5 for at a pawn shop, but what's the opportunity cost of having $25 cash vs. having a DVD player? Subjective value is subjective and non-constant for every person. Trade only occurs precisely because people subjectively value things DIFFERENTLY.
      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
    30. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ah, that's right, capital words and subjectivity allows one to simply define away irrationality, fraud and all the other imperfections.

      I'm RIGHT, because I SAY SO. QED.

    31. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by monxrtr · · Score: 1
      No, it does matter what the goods traded for are, even if one of those goods are promises, IOUs, paper, "book money", "currency", or all the other "material" goods (they are all valued SUBJECTIVELY), nobody will trade one thing for another thing, unless by definition they are better off wealthier for doing so. If that wasn't necessarily true, why would you accept "money", or "paychecks" for you labor services? No exchange ever occurs unless it is voluntary. No voluntary exchange occurs (no matter what is it exchanged), unless that which is received is valued more than that which is given away, EVEN IF one of those things is that which you call "paper".

      but what I actually meant was that you are trading a material good for something with no inherent value Absolutely nothing has inherent objective value. Everything is extrinsically valued by human actors. This is a founding principle of the modern science of economics. What you speak of is what perplexed the ancient Greeks, who couldn't figure out why a diamond could be worth more than a glass of water.

      Nobody is forcing the other party to accept "something with no inherent value" (a false contradiction, by definition). It is voluntarily accepted in exchange. It wouldn't be voluntarily accepted exchange unless the person accepting it was by definition wealthier by accepting it for whatever good he gives away.
      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
    32. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by TheThiefMaster · · Score: 1

      Except that the "money" is specific to each country involved, not shared. If a country is buying (importing) more than it's selling (exporting) other companies end up with a lot of the buyer's money, which they don't really want if that country isn't selling much. That's a trade deficit, and it makes the value of the currency go down. People don't want your money, because they can't buy much with it.

      This is bad.

    33. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by monxrtr · · Score: 1

      By your logic, no one ever is on the losing end of a trade. Absolutely correct. Nobody voluntarily trades for something which makes them worse off.

      Reality is full of counter examples. You're making the implicit assumption that people (or businesses) are perfectly rational actors with complete knowledge. They aren't - see the last 50 years or research in the social sciences. Nobody is omniscient, nobody has perfect knowledge. People still don't ever voluntarily trade for anything unless they are better off doing so. If they were theoretically worse off doing so, they wouldn't voluntarily trade in the first place.

      Just to give you one example of how this is wrong... Material goods may depreciate at a different (faster?) rate than currency does. So if I give you cash for a car, that car will be worth at lot less in 5 years than the value I paid for it. You can't assume that somehow the use of that car balances out the difference, because the car depreciates EVEN IF YOU DON'T USE IT. New, better cars are on the market, and people buy those cars instead of your older model. Thus, people lose money in the trade... it happens all the time. If you borrowed to make your purchase in the first place, then you are doubly screwed. Nobody ever buys a car, trades cash or credit or whatever for a car, unless they are wealthier by doing so. You can't assume people are not more or less aware that value is not constant, and they trade in spite of the risks that future subjective valuations will change. At the time of any and all trade, however, both parties are by definition wealthier. If they weren't, they wouldn't do the trade.

      And money can depreciate too, EVEN IF YOU DON'T USE IT. That's what non-constant subjective valuation means. All risk factors are in spite of taken into account with everyone's more or less imperfect knowledge comprehension of risks of changing future subjective valuations, AT THE MOMENT OF TRADE. And yet, you and absolutely nobody else ever voluntarily traded for anything that did not increase your wealth at that moment of exchange. You wouldn't trade for food, you wouldn't eat food rather than keep it in storage, unless it by definition made you better off at the moment you did the action.
      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
    34. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      The US has the leading economy in the world. To suggest other countries are "proping up our economy" is patently absurd.

      Those are in no way contradictory. Enron used to be the biggest energy company. However, that is not proof that it's techniques were sound in the longer run.

      Look at it this way -- many, many companies run a net trade deficit as they grow. That's precisely why they sell stock: to raise capital to finance their trade deficit. You build a factory and start selling widgets. It takes a while to pay for the factory, so the company has a net trade deficit,...

      Yes, but you are in risky territory while you are in such debt. Chapture 11 (bankruptcy) is often a lot easier for individuals than countries. "Chapture 11" for a country could bring death and starvation, help only comes if others have pitty on you.

      You have reaffirmed my points, perhaps without realizing it.

    35. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by monxrtr · · Score: 1

      By "buy" you mean US currency holders will trade US currency to US citizens and US citizens will trade land to US currency holders. And that will only occur if US citizens increase their material wealth by trading their land for US currency and vice versa. If the subjective value of US dollars declines or becomes worthless in the future, US citizens won't trade anything for that US currency, no matter who holds it. So who cares if "there is nothing that all these US currency holders want to buy that the US makes"? The US makers of whatever may similarly not want to buy that US currency back. That changes nothing of the fact that both parties benefited from the trade at the time of the trade and both parties are subject to future unknown risks of changing future subjective valuations for all things which are traded.

      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
    36. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by doktor-hladnjak · · Score: 1

      This of course is predicated on the condition that they'd actually want to buy the land. In a damaged economy, the value of that land would be very limited if it's not profitable to own. Rent collected + value of goods/services being manufactured/grown - property taxes - other costs of owning such as maintenance would need to be positive.

    37. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by X.25 · · Score: 1

      Talk of "trade deficits" is political manipulation designed to bamboozle the uninformed. Anyone who believes "deficits" result from trade is as gullible as the Emperor's New Clothes.

      Wtf are you smoking?

    38. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by spicate · · Score: 1

      People still don't ever voluntarily trade for anything unless they THINK they are better off doing so. Fixed it for you.
    39. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by servognome · · Score: 1

      I don't think that it's become so easy to program that the simplicity you're describing applies to IT.
      It's not here yet, but it is getting there. Standards allow tools to be created so that developers can focus on content rather than nuts & bolts. Also, Hardware is much more forgiving to code that isn't optimized, on top of that compilers help optimize your code.
      A large number of programmers today wouldn't be able to program 25 years ago; either their algorithms aren't optimized, their code isn't tight, or they don't understand enough about how the hardware works.
      --
      D6 63 0D 70 89 81 BB 8E 7B 7C 5F 5D 54 EA AB 73
    40. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by geeknado · · Score: 1
      I agree. The barrier to entry into the field is getting progressively weaker. That said, until we have computers that actually program themselves/can translate very simple English instructions("computer, give me a report that shows me what I want to know"), you're at the very least going to have to have enough foundation in basic logic to produce even inefficient algorithms...Certain kinds of thought don't seem to be natural to most people.

      Still, you're right-- in 20 years, this /might/ be solved by technology to some degree, assuming the global economy keeps ticking/we don't find people refusing to trade with us because they really do control /all/ the manufacturing. :)

    41. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by theophilosophilus · · Score: 1

      Why would my country want something we already have? Of course there will be a trade deficit in widgets.

      Assuming I was importing gadgets and exporting widgets to your country, my country will have a trade deficit in the gadget sector because my country is importing more gadgets than I am exporting. Deficits aren't a bad thing they just indicate that my country doesn't want to buy what we already have.

      --
      Why have 1 person driving a backhoe when you could employ 20 with shovels?
    42. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by lawpoop · · Score: 1

      No, it does matter what the goods traded for are, even if one of those goods are promises, IOUs, paper, "book money", "currency", or all the other "material" goods (they are all valued SUBJECTIVELY), nobody will trade one thing for another thing, unless by definition they are better off wealthier for doing so. That's bullshit. Nobody is a perfectly rational actor with omniscient knowledge. You are claiming that people are never cheated, fooled, or ripped off? Sorry, I don't buy it.

      If that wasn't necessarily true, why would you accept "money", or "paychecks" for you labor services? No exchange ever occurs unless it is voluntary. No voluntary exchange occurs (no matter what is it exchanged), unless that which is received is valued more than that which is given away, EVEN IF one of those things is that which you call "paper". How an actor values a good or service depends on their circumstances *at the time*. If I were dying of thirst, I wouldn't bother applying for a job to buy some water; I would search directly for water. However, in my current circumstances, I'm decently fed and watered, so I will go in to work for a paycheck, which I'm betting based on imperfect knowledge, will improve my position in the future. However, if my company goes bankrupt tomorrow, I will not finish out my two weeks, because I know the paycheck will likely be worthless. If I am unaware of the financial status of my company, I might finish out my pay period in exchange for a paycheck, the value of which I misunderstand. If the US dollar crashes, I may not go to work at all, since the money would be worthless.

      Absolutely nothing has inherent objective value. Agreed.

      Everything is extrinsically valued by human actors. This is a founding principle of the modern science of economics. What you speak of is what perplexed the ancient Greeks, who couldn't figure out why a diamond could be worth more than a glass of water. I misspoke. What I meant was that there are goods and services that have inherent human interests, such as food, water and clothing. The value of non-essential items derive their value, as far as human perceive them, from the value of essential items.

      When people have their basic needs met, being food, water, shelter, perhaps social interaction, etc. They being to play distribution and value games where they assign values to things that don't meet their basic needs, such as paychecks or gold coins. However, when one or some of the basic needs aren't met, non-essential items tend to lose most or all of their value.
      --
      Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
      -- Pablo Picasso
    43. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Universal health care would be CHEAPER than our current situation.

    44. Re:No such thing as a Trade Deficit by monxrtr · · Score: 0

      That's bullshit. Nobody is a perfectly rational actor with omniscient knowledge. You are claiming that people are never cheated, fooled, or ripped off? Sorry, I don't buy it.

      Nope, I've already explicitly stated everyone is not omniscient, everyone has different imperfect knowledge. (Your criticism may apply to neoclassical economics, and while I went to the #1 school in the world for economics, University of Chicago, I prove my assertions regardless of any Chicago or Austrian School influences. Took classes with multiple Nobel Prize instructors. And yes what I say here contradicts their macro economic bullshit). Of course people can be cheated, fooled, ripped off. Everyone knows with more or less uncertainty (differing amounts) that they *can* be cheated, fooled, ripped off. Even if they didn't know, the possibility that they could be would never be removed because it ALWAYS exists. People can be cheated, fooled, ripped off, WITH OR WITHOUT, government regulation. Government is run by the same exact PEOPLE who are potential trading partners. In absolutely every case whatsoever, however, transfers of things can only occur by two distinct full set possibility (mathematically, philosophically, epistemologically) methods: A.) voluntary trade OR B.) violent redistribution. There's no other possibility for the transfer of material property possession from one person to another.

      In absolutely every trade which ever occurs, everyone always has the choice to NOT trade. So many on this topic have committed the exact same fallacy which they smell a mile away in threads where the RIAA claims piracy = lost sales, by assuming preventing trade with "foreigners" means trade at better terms with "them". Copyright + Patent discussion is what brought me to /.) Why did people trade in some instances, and not trade in other instances? FOR ONE POSSIBLE REASON ONLY: that which is received or held onto is valued MORE than that which is given away (or held onto) in exchange, IN SPITE OF all the risks that a person could be cheated, fooled, ripped off. Any other possible explanation is an absurdity, such that they intentionally sought to make themselves worse off, or they randomly exchange random things at random valuations for the hell of it. QED. Each person evaluates those risks with various levels of consciousness. And ABSOLUTELY NOTHING can ever remove those risks either. Those risks of being cheated, fooled, ripped off will ALWAYS exist, no matter what. That's why people COMPETE for trade business by establishing good REPUTATION. But every time people trade, they trade with those risks subjectively evaluated and valued with more or less consciousness in the weight equation of a simple yes or no valuation question: is B worth more than A to ME (and is A worth more than B to ME for the other guy). And of course A and B both come with unknown risks, including but not limited to being cheated, fooled, ripped off, future subjective valuations diverging radically for A and B, etc.)

      People see "bad" movies all the time. People eat disappointing meals. People attend sub par concert performances. The possibility that the movie will be bad, the possibility that the meal will be disappointing, the possibility that the concert will be sub par, are all reflected in the PRICE the buyer is willing to pay, now, and in the future based on previous experience feedback. And in some instances, parties, seeking REPUTATION will offer REFUNDS to garner future trade business with customers. Of course intentionally poisoning someone is criminal violence. But nothing whatsoever can remove the possibility that someone will intentionally poison another.

      How an actor values a good or service depends on their circumstances *at the time*. If I were dying of thirst, I wouldn't bother applying for a job to buy some water; I would search directly for water.

      It always does depend upon circumstances, *at the time*, because trade always and only occurs in the present tense. If you were dyin

      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
  9. It's true by solevita · · Score: 5, Funny

    Too many of the US' imports are coming from abroad.

    1. Re:It's true by daeg · · Score: 1

      Not only are there too many international exports, we rely too far on them. Industry should be scattered over the globe to protect against natural and political disasters. Imagine, for instance, that India and China somehow get entangled in a war. They enact trade barriers against each other to hurt the other economically (both are huge exporters). Both countries suffer, but so do other countries. Less trade gaps and a more even distribution of wealth (and thus production capability) should decrease the number of major conflicts, both armed and not.

    2. Re:It's true by darkob · · Score: 0, Redundant

      In fact, 100% af all US IMPORTS are coming from abroad!

  10. $80 oil by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world -factbook/print/us.html

    We import over 13 million barrels a day, which is roughly 5 billion barrels a year. Oil prices dropping $8 a barrel would nullify our deficit.

  11. We do it to ourselves by DukeLinux · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I vote in EVERY election in my precint. I vote against ALL incumbants and against any additional spending. I am doing my part. I think when the dollar finally collapses people will get a clue that deindustrializing along with de-educating our kids was a really bad idea. I am not sure if our Government fully appreciates the impact of a bunch of pissed-off gun-owning "peasants." Shrub never read the history around Viet Nam and wonderfully repeated it. I bet he knows even less about European history...regarding uprisings, inserection and revolutions, etc.

    1. Re:We do it to ourselves by megaditto · · Score: 1

      Parent is absolutely correct.

      If you lived through the Civil Rights and Vietnam times, you know how stupid GP sounds.

      For one, pissed-off citizens are no match for US military: see Kent State or Little Rock examples. You know how much damage your 12-guage is going to do to a Bradley? might scratch off some paint, but that's about it. Civil uprising in America is a non-starter these days.

      Parent is also correct about the Democrats: it took two Republican presidents: Nixon and Ford, to clean up the decades-old mess started and maintained by the democrats.

      --
      Obama likes poor people so much, he wants to make more of them.
    2. Re:We do it to ourselves by doconnor · · Score: 1

      "it took two Republican presidents: Nixon and Ford, to clean up the decades-old mess started and maintained by the democrats."

      You talk as if Nixon resigned because from the exhaustion of cleaning up the Democrat's mess.

    3. Re:We do it to ourselves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "I am not sure if our Government fully appreciates the impact of a bunch of pissed-off gun-owning 'peasants.'"

      Be sure that it does. See Waco and Ruby-ridge. Also see the current definitions of "terrorist".

      A revolution will never happen in this country. Ever. Too many lugs lulled into a false sense of security - including by the Second Amendment, the useless damn thing. They still get drunk and laid, they have the right to gamble at the casino and shop at the mall, and that's all that matters.

      "They can't take my gun away from me!" Fine - keep your little 6-chamber pea-shooter, while you stay in your cave afraid to come out. The government still has the nukes, helicopters, bombers, SWAT team, Navy Seals, media...

    4. Re:We do it to ourselves by Foolicious · · Score: 1

      I vote against ALL incumb[e]nts

      You're operating under the mistaken principle that change is always good -- which it is not. By refusing to vote for an incumbent, you may be eliminating the best candidate. If spending is your concern, you should choose the candidate that votes most according to the manner of spending that you deem appropriate. What if the incumbent has a tremendous track record and the challenger is a total putz?

      Also, it's important to note that "deindustrialization" is a result of a freer market, a maturing economy and industrial/technological advances. It's not like the United States had a formal plan to just stop its big industry. It has just maintained a relatively free market where companies and individuals can decide, within the framework of the law, how and with whom they want to do business. If that means making parts for a car in Mexico for costs reasons because you have to give a huge chunk of the retail price of the car to ridiculous unions with whom you made equally ridiculous deals, then that's the way it goes. If that means you want to have some pollutant-spewing factory in China make the cloth for your clothes, then that's the way it goes.

      So should the framework of the law be changed? I don't think we need any more protectionist schemes from the US government, unless we're willing to deal with the fact that some, if not all, of those schemes will drive costs through the roof. Even then, the reintroduction of big industry wouldn't necessarily guarantee a reversion to the US's prior industrial status, nor would it mean that reattaining that status would guarantee the same things that it used to. The world's changing. There are many hard-and-fast economic, social and political rules that allow us to learn from history, but there's very little chance that we should meddle just to make things 100% like they used to be either.

      Just my 2 cents.

      --
      Please don't use "umm" or "err" or "erm".
    5. Re:We do it to ourselves by RAMMS+EIN · · Score: 1

      ``The government still has the nukes, helicopters, bombers, SWAT team, Navy Seals, media...''

      No, that's in Soviet Russia.

      In USA, media has government.

      --
      Please correct me if I got my facts wrong.
    6. Re:We do it to ourselves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Uh huh. Even if the army did universally side with the government, you still have *shitloads* more chance of a successful revolt than we do in the UK. At least your entire population isn't terrified of guns and knives and any weapon left after all the guns and knives have been taken away. At least most of you aren't begging for more government surveillance. At least you have meaningful human rights legislation.

      Your government may hold most of the power, but it isn't a monopoly, and most people don't want it to be. Be glad of that.

    7. Re:We do it to ourselves by DukeLinux · · Score: 1

      Well written. I tend to agree we probably cannot return to our "old ways" but I think we are being sold out faster than we can cope socially and economically. Couple that with a rapidly declining education system and how can we possibly end-up on top economically. My belief is that the Dollar will at some point collapse and we will have to pay for our excesses. I have had my daughter in three private schools and even they keep lowering their standards. It's sad amd frustrating. On voting. Mine are protest votes. I have NO confidence in either party. I personally know some politicians who are really trying to do the right thing. Too bad. Yes, the world is changin rapidly, but outsourcing ourselves is not the complete answer. I have friends and co-workers moving BACK to India and China respectively. The reason...greater opportunity. It is already starting. Great 2 cents...makes me think :).

    8. Re:We do it to ourselves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are assuming the government will still be strong. If the Bradley can't be fuelled up or the SEALs aren't getting paid and eventually sell their weapons for food the government isn't going to get far. Look at Iraq. An elite expeditionary force is having rings run around it by a group of Arab politicians conniving with criminals, religious fanatics and some locals with an honest grudge. Looking at things from the force-on-force perspective is just too unsophisticated, reality never works like that.

    9. Re:We do it to ourselves by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      I am not sure if our Government fully appreciates the impact of a bunch of pissed-off gun-owning "peasants."

      Iraq is showing us daily.

    10. Re:We do it to ourselves by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 1

      Actually, if you heard his speech to the VFW in KC this week, you could have heard him massacring Viet Nam history. The sad thing is we've become a country of ignorant ideologues who don't even know how wrong he was.

      --
      I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
    11. Re:We do it to ourselves by Foolicious · · Score: 1

      Yeah. It's a tough balancing act, you're right about that.

      I still have a lot of confidence in these collective united states, not meaning their government bodies or institutions as much as a collective people and national "being". Whether it's greed or work ethic I couldn't tell you, but we've (I'm from the US) got a knack for working through tough situations creatively to come out ahead or on par. My biggest fear is that the government and big influential social institutions (mainstream media for one) will stifle free thinkers, which won't allow us the same opportunities as we had in the past to live out those freedoms guaranteed in the US and states' Constitutions. When the law and ill-conceived social constructs have so clamped down that individuals cannot operate under the freedoms outlined in these documents, well, that's when things REALLY start to go down the tubes.

      --
      Please don't use "umm" or "err" or "erm".
    12. Re:We do it to ourselves by DukeLinux · · Score: 1

      Since I am feeling positive right now, our history is one of correcting ourselves when we got off course. Maybe we don't see the correction as these things take time.

  12. Well, yeah.... by FooAtWFU · · Score: 5, Insightful
    It shouldn't be the least bit surprising to anyone that we import our electronics from overseas. It's also not surprising or even necessarily bad that we have a trade deficit. We're the rich country, and we're spending money on buying stuff. And it's not like global trade is a zero-sum game; we remain pretty darned capable of generating wealth ourselves, and indeed can do so far more effectively than manufacturing a bunch of cheap electronic parts.

    Yay, so the markets are hiccuping because people didn't understand the risk associated with the debt securities they were buying. let's get scared about the trade deficit by posting scary-looking numbers when most people don't understand any of the concepts behind them, oooooooooooooooooh. scary! :P

    --
    The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    1. Re:Well, yeah.... by Bobzibub · · Score: 1

      I would be concerned about the general trade deficit though. Consider how much the US dollar has dropped in the last six years, it should be boosting exports and suppressing imports -- like bananas. ; ) Since that doesn't appear to be happening, it appears that the elasticity is low and the green back has a lot more dropping to do.

      Perhaps the US simply has a surplus of wealth and an industrial production deficit?

      As far as the sub prime mortgage backed securities, nobody understood the risks. And the market wasn't regulated as far as maximum leverage levels etc--from the consumer taking out the loans to the banks issuing the securities to the investment funds lapping them up. Never heard that one before!

    2. Re:Well, yeah.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would be very interested to find out in what areas/ways the US is "pretty darned capable of generating wealth" for the export market. Any examples?

    3. Re:Well, yeah.... by zoftie · · Score: 1

      after gold standard was lifted, the whole world economics became unhinged and perverted. There are no base rules, but some ideas why it works like it does. It seems cheaper currency makes for good investment into a country ... but if currency is cheap and there is a default coming onto a country's bank, then it will be cheaper even. So it is investing into a country when things are about to be 10x cheaper then 10-20% cheaper.
      Money doesn't like to stand around, so fact of deficit doesn't mean end to all things, perhaps a reshuffle of the old ones. Bad ideas get sifted out, new ones take hold for the benefit of most people. That given,there might be short term poverty...
      As in Russia when there was a bank default, investments just flooded the country, and now there are jobs and prosperity, relative to what it was. And people are far better off then they were before.

      It seems like flushing old money out of the system rejuvenates the country... iMO

    4. Re:Well, yeah.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  13. Lobbying screws us again by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    No other country tolerates such lopsided trading. Such lopsidedness creates instability for both individuals (job loss and frequent change), and the state (recessions, credit bubble poppage, etc.). The math used to justify "free trade" ONLY looks at total GDP and fails to take into account other important factors, such as stability, military secrets, income equality, etc. All factors are important, not just total GDP.

    Are "they" naive or lying with math for taking us down this road? I suspect the latter. This is because multi-national corporations spread their resources all over the world so that they are more immune from the bumps caused by heavy-handed free-trade than small companies, individuals, and individual countries. They can hedge their situation better than those who will feel the brunt of the downsides. They are acting selfish by dumping the risk and side-effects of "free trade" onto others, namely us. Early pro-trade writers, like Adam Smith, didn't really understand these other factors, using simplified equations instead, and thus greed does not always work to mutual benefit.

  14. Not just technology which is coming from elsewhere by smooth+wombat · · Score: 1
    Even law firms are getting into the act.


    Just means bigger bonuses for the guys at the top because it makes them look good at cutting costs, while the folks at the bottom continue to slog along getting 2 - 3% raises.

    It's the way the free market works. Except if you're a big Wall Street brokerage firm or hedge fund in which case when the free market means you're about to go under the Fed will step in and save your asses with a bailout. But I digress.

    --
    We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
  15. Basic Economics 1001 by Ancient_Hacker · · Score: 0, Troll
    "Trade Deficits"!

    There is no such thing.

    For every thing we buy from far away, we give back little pieces of paper. In other words, we "trade".

    The essence of trade is that both sides would rather have what the other guy has.

    So we fork over $49.95 for a CD player.

    Some place in Taiwan has decided they'd rather have $49.95 than have a CD player. We decided the exact opposite.

    After the "trade", both Ching-Chong Charlie and us, we are both happier.

    That is the essence of trade.

    So where is the "deficit"? We have fewer pieces of green paper, but that's okay, we got something better in exchange.

    Poor C-C Charlie is stuck with little pieces of paper, only good for buying things priced in dollars. Which would be another "trade", beneficial to both parties.

    1. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by operato · · Score: 1

      at this rate you might as well hand "ching-chong charlie" everything you own. you give them little pieces of paper now and before you know it they'll own all your asses and pay you little pieces of paper that amount to nothing.

    2. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You don't get it, do you? I'll bet you scored the original post a troll, didn't you?

    3. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by Carewolf · · Score: 1

      The deficit is that you sell a CD-player for 30$ dollars, but another one in your house-hold buys one for $45 . That gives you are trade deficit of 15$. Since you don't have any money you loan the $15 every time you trade, slowing putting you into deeper and deeper debt. With your lack of logic it is no wonder the banks are going bottom up in America.

    4. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1) You can't moderate if you post.
      2) The original post was a gross oversimplification of economics that sought to define 'deficit' out of existence in a way that suggests not a deep understanding of economics, but rather the heartfelt application of an appealingly simple philosophy. For some reason the author (you?) included ethnically derisive nomenclature in this expression of post-adolescent certitude and in the process got labeled a troll. I think the author is sincere, but the intellectual horsepower behind the assertion warrants no more attention from the average /.er than an actual troll.

    5. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by KillerCow · · Score: 2, Interesting

      So we fork over $49.95 for a CD player. ...
      That is the essence of trade. ...
      So where is the "deficit"? We have fewer pieces of green paper, but that's okay, we got something better in exchange.


      Where did your piece of green paper come from?

      Did the government just print it out of thin air for you? If so, then it has no value, and no one will accept it in the future. Your currency will crash and you will have massive inflation. Soon, your $50 will not even buy you a stick of gum from an overseas producer. Why would they accept it when it means nothing?

      Did you take a loan to get it? If so, then you are going deeper and deeper into debt, and sooner or later, you wont be able to borrow any more. Who will lend to you when you have no ability to pay them back?

      The deficit is that you didn't sell $50 worth of materials to create that $50 that you used to buy materials.

    6. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by forgotten_my_nick · · Score: 1

      That is what you are doing now and why China and the Middle east pretty much own the USA. They only need to call in the debts and the US is screwed. Mind you the rest of the world and those countries would be screwed too.

      As it stands instead they are trading in the $ to buy companies and real estate.

    7. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is actually by design (put in motion after WWII to prevent future wars). If countries "own" huge pieces of each other, then there is a massive incentive to not go to war. You'd be destroying your own investments.

    8. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by Ancient_Hacker · · Score: 1
      Thanks, all. Now I have a better idea of the level of economic knowledge out there. i.e. around 0.00%

      Perhaps you could all benefit by turning off talk radio and actually READING A BOOK.

      You might start with PJ O'Rourke's commentary on "Wealth of Nations". Deep, insightful, and amusing too.

    9. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by forgotten_my_nick · · Score: 1

      *shrug* Prehaps you can do a bit better then a strawman/ad hominen attack?

      How about actually read the current news? Rather then a book written in 1776?

      http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/art icle600750.ece

      http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/21/america/wea lth.php

      http://news.independent.co.uk/business/analysis_an d_features/article2891171.ece

      http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/article_38 43.shtml

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/m oney/2007/08/08/cnchina108.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedb ox

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/m oney/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml

      Big companies like Lenovo being bought out by China, or more recently the US government blocking China from buying Unocal (US blocking on average 10% of US companies being bought up by China).

    10. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by Ancient_Hacker · · Score: 1
      IMHO the fact that "The Wealth of Nations" was written long ago, and is still read and acknowledged to have a lot of relevance, is a big plus.

      And let's compare how bad a "trade deficit" is. Below you'll see a list of countries, their relative per capita GNP, and their trade deficits. See if you can spot a pattern or correlqtion:

      Country GNP per capita Trade deficits
      USA High High
      Canada High High
      Sweden Very High High
      China Very Low Very Low
      Argentina Low Low and infrequent
      Burkina Faso Very Low Low

      See if you can spot the correlation, if any.

    11. Re:Basic Economics 1001 by bbdb · · Score: 1

      Big companies like Lenovo being bought out by China, or more recently the US government blocking China from buying Unocal (US blocking on average 10% of US companies being bought up by China).

      You might have missed in those news the strange fact that employment in China's manufacturing sector is actually falling.

      BTW - an insightful book wrote two centuries ago might be more relevant to what happens now than a flashy prattle of dumb journalists, who even if traveled, are typically ignorant. Here's a good example of one:
      The Accidental Theorist All work and no play makes William Greider a dull boy

      --
      Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
  16. The dollar is significantly overvalued. by tjstork · · Score: 1, Interesting

    It's really that simple, is that, USA pays its people too much relative to the rest of the world, and the easiest way to fix that is to devalue the dollar.

    Even at its relately "low" versus the EU of $1.30 - $1.50 vs 1EU, there's no way that a worker in detroit who does not get paid the same benefits (incl natl health care), as his german counterpart, and current economics says it does.

    Beyond that, we need to invest what dollars we have in education. Stop throwing so many people into prison and build more schools. Infrastructure needs money too, and honestly, some form of national health care is obviously useful. If National Health Care is such an economic drag, how the hell does the EU actually able to export its goods to the USA and not the other way around? Why is a BMW so frigging cheap?

    Currency yes, needs to be fixed, but we need to take care of business at home too.

    --
    This is my sig.
    1. Re:The dollar is significantly overvalued. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      By what definition is $32k cheap for a car (BMW 3 series, cheapest listed online)? 13 or more Chevy vehicles are cheaper than that. I admit that the average Chevy is not as good a car as the average BMW, but still, a BMW cheap?

    2. Re:The dollar is significantly overvalued. by drsquare · · Score: 1

      If National Health Care is such an economic drag, how the hell does the EU actually able to export its goods to the USA and not the other way around? Why is a BMW so frigging cheap?
      America does export plenty of goods. There are American fast-food franchises in every British town, there are Fords on every British road, there is American software on nearly every British computer.
  17. SOLUTION! by cosmocain · · Score: 1

    export more weapons. preferably weapons of mass destruction, which then can be found again (by chance, of course) and be a cause for war, which is good for the local industries!

    1. Re:SOLUTION! by PPH · · Score: 1
      It won't work. Even the electronics for munitions is going overseas.

      I was searching on-line for a datasheet for a Honeywell component a few months ago which definitely falls into the 'dual use' catagory. When I finally found it, my browser told me I had to install a Chinese font to view it.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
  18. Exact time: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When dollar is worth toilet paper.

  19. Why? by FatSean · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why is it in their best interest to send money through the USA when we don't make much of what they want to buy, and we can't afford to buy what they sell?

    --
    Blar.
    1. Re:Why? by shawn(at)fsu · · Score: 1

      and we can't afford to buy what they sell?
      What do you mean with that, I thought the only way to have a trade deficit was to buy more from abroad than locally. So if we have a trade deficit it doesn't seem like we are having a problem affording stuff.

      --
      500 dollar reward for tip(s) leading to the arrest of the person(s) who stole my sig.
    2. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What do you mean with that, I thought the only way to have a trade deficit was to buy more from abroad than locally. So if we have a trade deficit it doesn't seem like we are having a problem affording stuff.

      Short term vs long term viewpoint. If we have a trade deficit today- and it's large enough- it means that comparative advantage rules have broken down, and that the nation that no longer produces ANYTHING will start losing high-paying manufacturing jobs (gee, kind of like what we've been doing for 40 years now?). As those high-paying jobs fall off, more and more Americans are living on what are basically substinence level wages (albeit, substinence level in America is 40x what it is in China, especially after the housing market boom). If we're earning substinence level wages, that means no money for toys. Which explains why my previous 2 year upgrade cycle has been broken for the past 4 years.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    3. Re:Why? by Eponymous+Bastard · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What do you mean with that, I thought the only way to have a trade deficit was to buy more from abroad than locally. So if we have a trade deficit it doesn't seem like we are having a problem affording stuff. Well, no. The only way to have a trade deficit is to buy abroad more than you sell abroad. (By definition). It's ok not to buy anything locally if you also sell enough abroad to make up for it.

      As it is, the US is draining its bank account (international reserves, citizen's bank accounts through taxes, corporate bank accounts and just plain citizen's money).

      It might be interesting to put this in perspective. Does anyone know the total amount of international reserves/circulating money/assets in the US? Is $38.6 Billion a large chunk or just noise? It would make a lot of difference in the predictions of doom and gloom in this discussion.

      Any macroeconomists in the house?
    4. Re:Why? by shawn(at)fsu · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the explanation. I actually took macro in college and I realized I didn't like economics at all. My above post proves how much I didn't learn.

      --
      500 dollar reward for tip(s) leading to the arrest of the person(s) who stole my sig.
    5. Re:Why? by aldousd666 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      so you're saying that if someone loses their high paying manufacturing job, then they can't go do something else ever? not even 20 years from now? It's a local hiccup to lose a local industry to foreign competition, it doesn't make the next generation (next 4 year class of college students even) of workers immune to finding jobs. It's those high paying jobs anyway that make American companies unable to compete with foreign companies who don't pay them as much. So you're basically saying that we should somehow tell the other countries that they have to be fair and pay them as much as we'd like to make, because.. it's only fair that way... right? I don't think they'll buy it. And you will be left behind whining about how life isn't fair, while the people who adapt will be moving on buying more plasma screen tv's they shouldn't be able to afford.

      --
      Speak for yourself.
    6. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      so you're saying that if someone loses their high paying manufacturing job, then they can't go do something else ever?

      No, I'm saying that the options to high paying manufacturing jobs pay less than a living wage.

      not even 20 years from now?

      Unless something comes along that pays a living wage, not even 20 years from now. The race for cheap labor is a race to the bottom, not to the top.

      It's a local hiccup to lose a local industry to foreign competition, it doesn't make the next generation (next 4 year class of college students even) of workers immune to finding jobs.

      It just means that the next generation only has burger flipping available- because nobody can afford anything else.

      It's those high paying jobs anyway that make American companies unable to compete with foreign companies who don't pay them as much.

      And we want to compete with them exactly why? Why not just lock them out of our market so that we don't have to compete with them?

      So you're basically saying that we should somehow tell the other countries that they have to be fair and pay them as much as we'd like to make, because.. it's only fair that way... right?

      No, I'm saying that if they want to sell goods here, then they have to pay equal to American wages. If they don't want to pay equal to American wages, then I see NO reason why we should allow their imports AT ALL.

      I don't think they'll buy it. And you will be left behind whining about how life isn't fair, while the people who adapt will be moving on buying more plasma screen tv's they shouldn't be able to afford.

      At least until China realizes that all they're getting for those plasma screens are IOUs that will never be paid off. I don't see any reason why we can't just sink the Chinese ships trying to cross our borders, and make the plasma screens here. But hey- if you like selling out your nationality for cheap labor, so be it. There's a name for that: treason. And someday, patriots like me will be handing out the proper punishment for that crime.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    7. Re:Why? by Some+Pig! · · Score: 1

      If we have a trade deficit today- and it's large enough- it means that comparative advantage rules have broken down

      "Comparative advantage" is an interesting consequence of some very early econonmic models.
      Those models assume:

      Decreasing returns to scale
      No innovation
      (most fundamentally) domestic investment stays domestic.

      This is because those early models took agriculture as the paradigm. You can use land to grow A, B, or C, but you can't saw off land and float it over to another country with different climate, and more and more investment (land under cultivation) yields less and less return.

      "Comparative advantage" is an mathematical artifact of those restrictions.

      Those models have NOTHING to do with this topic, which is about offshoring production (absolute advantage), industrial production (increasing returns to scale), and innovation.

      When the formal assumptions are changed to reflect these facts, "comparative advantage" breaks down from first principles.

      This topic is vitally important. Will people please, please not be blinded by obsolete models.

    8. Re:Why? by phlinn · · Score: 1

      No, it does NOT mean comparative advantage rules have broken down. Believe it or not, us buying more abroad just means that our money is worth more to foreigners than the objects they are selling, and the objects we are buying are worth more to us than the money being shelled out. That is all.

      Buying things abroad increases the nations overall wealth. Wealth != money, and trade != a zero sum game. Complaining about a trade deficit is like complaining that I personally buy more physical goods than I produce. Panics about trade deficits require one to assume that some particular trend will continue indefinitely. It won't. There are always feedbacks. We currently don't produce nothing, and we will never produce nothing. We might, in the worst case, cease producing physical objects, but intangible services are still valuable to trade.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    9. Re:Why? by phlinn · · Score: 1

      "'Comparative advantage' is an mathematical artifact of those restrictions." prove it. I don't see where comparative advantage requires those assumptions you listed. Especially the third one, although it is mentioned in some simplified examples of comparative advantage. Comparative advantage can function even with out those assumptions, it just makes the examples more complicated.

      You mention absolute advantage. Even with an absolute advantage in every way, it is provably the case that trade can still be useful. That is a fundamental part of comparative advantage. As long as there is at least one area where the advantage isn't as great as another, trade can benefit both parties.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    10. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Even with an absolute advantage in every way, it is provably the case that trade can still be useful.

      Depends on how you define useful. I define useful as being safe, protective of the future. Foreign trade is almost NEVER safe, because it strips away governmental consumer, environmental, and worker protections. It is in fact highly dangerous to anybody who isn't an investor; and remains so.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    11. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No, it does NOT mean comparative advantage rules have broken down. Believe it or not, us buying more abroad just means that our money is worth more to foreigners than the objects they are selling, and the objects we are buying are worth more to us than the money being shelled out. That is all.

      That's all if you are only thinking in the short term. But in the long term, this destroys our manufacturing industry to the point that we can't afford to keep paying Americans a high enough wage to have houses, let alone buy foreign crap.

      Buying things abroad increases the nations overall wealth.

      Or at least that's the religious myth they keep spouting at us with no real data whatsoever. Overall wealth means NOTHING- how much space you have between the poorest and the wealthiest counts for EVERYTHING, at least as far as national security counts, because the wider that spread the higher chance you have of violent revolution.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    12. Re:Why? by phlinn · · Score: 1

      Fine, I define useful as producing a net benefit for both parties to the trade. Safety and protection are aspects of whether it's a net benefit, but they are not the only factors. Trade, foreign or domestic, is almost ALWAYS safe, because it is based on voluntary transactions rather than coercion, unlike many of the governmental and worker protections you think highly of.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    13. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Fine, I define useful as producing a net benefit for both parties to the trade. Safety and protection are aspects of whether it's a net benefit, but they are not the only factors.

      If you're dead, what other net benefit can exist? Money means NOTHING- price means NOTHING- efficiency means NOTHING if you cannot protect what you have.

      Trade, foreign or domestic, is almost ALWAYS safe, because it is based on voluntary transactions rather than coercion, unlike many of the governmental and worker protections you think highly of.

      If my only choice to buy a computer is to buy foreign, how is that not coercion? If my neighbor is starving because he got laid off from his job for cheaper labor elsewhere, how is that not theft? If you hide the pollution in China and claim that your US operation is environmentally safe, how is that not fraud? No, I'm sorry- foreign trade is ALWAYS about hiding fraud, theft, or coercion from the consumer- and thus libertarian free trade is just another con game like Stalinism was, promising much and delivering NOTHING.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    14. Re:Why? by pieinthesky · · Score: 1

      Why not just lock them out of our market so that we don't have to compete with them?

      Oh the irony. How many countries has the US skewered because they refused to play the "we're bigger than you, give us your resources" game. Now the hat's on the other foot and "lock them out of our market" is the new strategy?

    15. Re:Why? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At least until China realizes that all they're getting for those plasma screens are IOUs that will never be paid off.
      There's one thing in the US that Chinese want a lot of. Land. Sooner or later (now would be a pretty good time given the current sub-prime woes depressing property values) they'll buy up land at fire sale prices. And then you'll have mortgaged your children's future and they'll have to pay foreign owners to live in the USA.

    16. Re:Why? by timster · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Thanks for showing your open hate at the end there, MH42. Nice to know that marxists are still empty violent rebel types.

      Your economic theory is interesting but baseless. If you get out a map you can draw arbitrary lines on it and make any silly economic point that you please. Suppose you draw a line around downtown San Francisco, and you notice that goods and services come in while only trash goes out. You haven't made an economic point about downtown San Francisco; you've just found where some rich people live.

      National borders are of similar, diminishing relevance. I know that you believe that an American is somehow "worth" more than someone in China, but it's not really true; all men are created equal, and most of them manage to stay that way. Goods and services move into the US rather than out because the people in the US have more money.

      Sure, it won't always be that way; taking money away from the rich has always been the favorite pastime of the poor. But your predicions of collapse and calamity are far from likely. The US economy still produces a huge amount of product, despite what John Edwards would have you believe. Enough to pay off those debts easily enough should China come looking for their money.

      --
      I have seen the future, and it is inconvenient.
    17. Re:Why? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why the hell is it always *only* high paying American jobs that cause this problem? Why don't you consider that companies are saving money (short term) by off-shoring pollution, not investing in their own country (There really is quite cheap labor in some parts of the country), and fair labor standards? Besides, if it was solely based on labor costs, many countries would have to shut down (I won't list them, because then the pedantics will find some other excuse).

      Also, what they are saying, is that there is a pretty good chance that they won't be able to find "high paying" jobs to replace those they lost, *and* those college kids won't either, and slowly our wealth will be off shored (well, except the super-rich, who have protected their money and will be able to live in a nice classed society....)

      I guess Americans think of themselves as reduced down to consumers, just like the surface dwellers in "The Time Machine.". We just don't realize that the harvest is coming....

      I'm gonna add my standard line at this point. We could really use some tariffs and barriers to compensate for the unfair and unequitable(preditory) practices that other countries are using.

    18. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Oh the irony. How many countries has the US skewered because they refused to play the "we're bigger than you, give us your resources" game. Now the hat's on the other foot and "lock them out of our market" is the new strategy?

      More, how many countries has New York City skewered because they refused to play that game? I'll give you a hint- the other 49 states were the first 49 to fall to this strategy, not the third world. Yes, it's time for protectionism not for the businessmen in New York City (for whom such protectionism would be really bad- as you say, large amounts of their business is elsewhere now) but rather for the other 49 states.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    19. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 0, Troll

      Thanks for showing your open hate at the end there, MH42. Nice to know that marxists are still empty violent rebel types.

      I'm an American before I'm anything else- and when violence is the only solution left open, violence becomes the solution. You've taken away our jobs, you've taken away our way of life, you're in the process of taking away our houses with those stupid variable rate mortgages. What else is left?

      Your economic theory is interesting but baseless.

      It's not an economic theory, it's a national security theory.

      If you get out a map you can draw arbitrary lines on it and make any silly economic point that you please. Suppose you draw a line around downtown San Francisco, and you notice that goods and services come in while only trash goes out. You haven't made an economic point about downtown San Francisco; you've just found where some rich people live.

      Rich people should get what they deserve- death for stealing from everybody else.

      National borders are of similar, diminishing relevance. I know that you believe that an American is somehow "worth" more than someone in China, but it's not really true; all men are created equal, and most of them manage to stay that way. Goods and services move into the US rather than out because the people in the US have more money.

      I never said that an American is "worth" more than someone in China. I said that people in America don't owe the people in China a living. Let them build their own economy- and keep ours for ourselves.

      Sure, it won't always be that way; taking money away from the rich has always been the favorite pastime of the poor. But your predicions of collapse and calamity are far from likely. The US economy still produces a huge amount of product, despite what John Edwards would have you believe. Enough to pay off those debts easily enough should China come looking for their money.

      The US Economy produces nothing but paper. And even most of that is actually produced elsewhere- it's only the information on the paper that is the value added. When people elsewhere figure out that America's money is worth less than the paper it's printed on, they will go elsewhere. Money has no intrinsic value, only mythical value.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    20. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Once again, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Foreign Trade may very well be economically advantageous, but is it safe from a national security standpoint? I say no.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    21. Re:Why? by Nexx · · Score: 1

      I don't see any reason why we can't just sink the Chinese ships trying to cross our borders, and make the plasma screens here.

      Very simple. To make those plasma screens, you'll have to import rare earth elements from abroad. Those computers you're using to opine on to slashdot? They require rare earth elements too.

      How do you propose to buy items this country requires from abroad if there is no international wealth created by being competitive internationally?

    22. Re:Why? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They are, asian countries in particular are buying us debt. This also depresses their currency value making their products more competitive in terms of cost.

    23. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Very simple. To make those plasma screens, you'll have to import rare earth elements from abroad.

      We now have rare earth mines here in the United States for every one of the 92 naturally occurring elements, though some of them need some refinement that makes the ore too expensive on a world market. Try again.

      Those computers you're using to opine on to slashdot? They require rare earth elements too.

      Who do you think invented the microchip? Gallium and arsenic are available from domestic sources as well.

      How do you propose to buy items this country requires from abroad if there is no international wealth created by being competitive internationally?

      I challenge you to find an item we need from abroad, that has NO domestic production and NO potential for domestic production and NO alternative technology.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    24. Re:Why? by aldousd666 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      you don't have a 'right to a job' you have to right to apply for a job. if nobody wants to pay your for your services, learn some new services. nobody 'took our jobs away' they simply outperformed us for a lower price. I'm not talking about quality necessarily, that's another issue, and it varies as well. People go to work and get paid because someone feels the need for their services, and that it's worth forking out the cash for said service instead of, for example, doing it themselves. You don't get a paycheck because someone wants to give you a job, you get a paycheck because you can do something someone feels is worth paying you for. If someone else does it for a lower price, then quit your bitching and do one of two things: find another job doing the same thing somewhere else, or, learn to do something else and do that. Like I said, industries, especially in particular geographical areas, but eventually as a whole, go completely out of business eventually when we have machines or other products to replace them. So, in accepting the fact that we don't live in a stagnant society, and that nobody is going to just walk up and start paying you for producing nothing (services included), you should really quit bitching about 'poor people who don't have jobs,' and start thinking of 'how can we find useful services for these folks to perform.' Notice that's not the same thing as forcing someone (or the government) to pay them to do what they feel like doing, it's repurposing some good resources -- the people who need the jobs. If all of the sudden computers could write all of their own code, I'd be fucked too, but I'm well aware of that, and I'm ready to accept the risk, so I seek employment as a programmer. You're not going to ever find something that's just right and sit on it for enternity, it'll just keep moving, like the rest of the planet.

      --
      Speak for yourself.
    25. Re:Why? by MontyApollo · · Score: 1

      Why do people like to pretend they are addressing a post but instead go off on a different tangent? I did not say anything about foriegn countries sending money to the US, but yet one can apparently be insightful by pretending a post says whatever is convenient (not my definition of insightful though). I said it was in their best interest to keep the money coming in from the US. Therefore they won't "cut us off" and stop selling to us.

      Whether or not we will run out of money and at some point in the future and be unable to buy the goods is a completely different matter and not what I was addressing. Someone said they might go on a power trip and decide to cut us off, just because. And I said as long as we are sending money their way, it would be in their best interest not to cut us off.

    26. Re:Why? by fiendy · · Score: 1

      Once again, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Foreign Trade may very well be economically advantageous, but is it safe from a national security standpoint? I say no.

      And if you stunt your nation's (already poor) economic growth by refusing to participate in, reducing, or over-regulating international trade, then the terrorists have won.

      I don't say this to be trite, its just a fact.

    27. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 0, Troll

      you don't have a 'right to a job' you have to right to apply for a job.

      In that case, why should I bother with a job when it's easier just to shoot you and take what I want?

      if nobody wants to pay your for your services, learn some new services. nobody 'took our jobs away' they simply outperformed us for a lower price.

      No, they were allowed to have access to our customers by a government who refused to protect the borders.

      I'm not talking about quality necessarily, that's another issue, and it varies as well.

      Quality means nothing in the market- price is the only data the consumer has available to them, so that's what they make their decision on. Want quality? You need a protected market for quality.

      People go to work and get paid because someone feels the need for their services, and that it's worth forking out the cash for said service instead of, for example, doing it themselves.

      The more you do for yourself- the more that is done in your local community- the safer and less dependent you are on foreigners who couldn't give a shit about whether or not you have a service to offer.

      If someone else does it for a lower price, then quit your bitching and do one of two things: find another job doing the same thing somewhere else, or, learn to do something else and do that.

      And if you want a local community or a family, then you should be loyal to your local community and family. If not, you're just another traitor.

      Like I said, industries, especially in particular geographical areas, but eventually as a whole, go completely out of business eventually when we have machines or other products to replace them. So, in accepting the fact that we don't live in a stagnant society, and that nobody is going to just walk up and start paying you for producing nothing (services included), you should really quit bitching about 'poor people who don't have jobs,' and start thinking of 'how can we find useful services for these folks to perform.'

      That's exactly what I'm doing. The way to find useful services for people in our society to perform is by being LOYAL to our society and buying from people in our society, instead of being a selfish traitor and going elsewhere.

      Notice that's not the same thing as forcing someone (or the government) to pay them to do what they feel like doing, it's repurposing some good resources -- the people who need the jobs. If all of the sudden computers could write all of their own code, I'd be fucked too, but I'm well aware of that, and I'm ready to accept the risk, so I seek employment as a programmer. You're not going to ever find something that's just right and sit on it for enternity, it'll just keep moving, like the rest of the planet.

      And yet our fathers and grandfathers were able to- of course, they could spell too....unlike you.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    28. Re:Why? by phlinn · · Score: 1

      It's not coercion because no one is actively using force against you. No one is forcing you to do something, or avoid something. You are free to go your merry way. At most you can complain that they aren't acting on your behalf in a way that you would want, which is not the same thing as working against you. Enforced worker protections, such as forcing employers to hire union members, is coercion because it can't work without the government explicitly stepping in to override a voluntary transaction which would otherwise occur. If I'm not a union member, and you want to hire me, but can't because someone is explicitly preventing it, that is coercion. If I'm not a union member, and no one wants to hire me for their own personal reasons but could if they chose to, that is not coercion.

      This doesn't mean we can't enforce false advertising laws, or other anti-fraud measures, because use of fraud puts me in a transaction I didn't agree to.

      "foreign trade is ALWAYS about hiding fraud, theft, or coercion from the consumer". You really should avoid universal statments. Almost always at least provides some leeway. Your statment is assertion, with nothing to back it up. Foreign trade is USUALLY about maximising personal profit. That does NOT require fraud, theft, or coercion in order to occur. It's not theft from you if I hire someone who is cheaper, or buy from a cheaper provider, because I have no obligation whatsoever to act for your benefit. The only obligation I have is not to act against you.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    29. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      And if you stunt your nation's (already poor) economic growth by refusing to participate in, reducing, or over-regulating international trade, then the terrorists have won.

      Yes, the terrorists have won. They have won because they care to win and we don't care. So the real question isn't how to keep the terrorists from winning, because they've already won. The question is what we're going to do about it. Are we going to allow them to continue to control our economy from foreign lands? Are we going to continue to let terrorists into our open borders? Are we going to continue to let the Chinese poison our children? I say foreign trade isn't worth the cost.

      I don't say this to be trite, its just a fact.

      Yes, it is. I'm terrorized. But I'm going to do something about it. I'm going to start treating "Made in China" like the threat it is. I'm going to buy American-made diesel engines and stop running my car on middle eastern crap, and switch to bio-diesel. In fact, I already have. I buy American anytime I have a choice to, even if I have to pay 10x as much. If everybody did that, we wouldn't need to be in Iraq. We wouldn't need to get scared about China calling in our debt. We wouldn't need to worry about the New York Stock Exchange raping our savings- because we'd have jobs again. Big business is a drain that we don't need.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    30. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      It's not coercion because no one is actively using force against you.

      Ok, so where's my choice as a consumer? If there is no force, that means that there's a choice.

      No one is forcing you to do something, or avoid something.

      Except, of course, the people preventing me from buying 100% American made magnets.

      You are free to go your merry way.

      Really? Am I? Or is this just a fake freedom, like Stalin offered?

      At most you can complain that they aren't acting on your behalf in a way that you would want, which is not the same thing as working against you.

      I see no difference between treason and treason.

      Enforced worker protections, such as forcing employers to hire union members, is coercion because it can't work without the government explicitly stepping in to override a voluntary transaction which would otherwise occur.

      As is forcing me to buy magnets from China- which wouldn't happen without government explicitly stepping in to destroy American corporations producing magnets.

      If I'm not a union member, and you want to hire me, but can't because someone is explicitly preventing it, that is coercion.

      No problem, we'll just make you a union member.

      If I'm not a union member, and no one wants to hire me for their own personal reasons but could if they chose to, that is not coercion.

      Or rather we'll just have to send you to India because no jobs are available here.

      This doesn't mean we can't enforce false advertising laws, or other anti-fraud measures, because use of fraud puts me in a transaction I didn't agree to.

      Just as free trade puts me in a transaction I didn't agree to. I didn't agree to join the WTO, or NAFTA. I didn't agree to let Wal*Mart put my local mom&pop shops out of business. I didn't agree to let the market destroy my community. That is ALL fraud.

      "foreign trade is ALWAYS about hiding fraud, theft, or coercion from the consumer". You really should avoid universal statments. Almost always at least provides some leeway. Your statment is assertion, with nothing to back it up. Foreign trade is USUALLY about maximising personal profit. That does NOT require fraud, theft, or coercion in order to occur. It's not theft from you if I hire someone who is cheaper, or buy from a cheaper provider, because I have no obligation whatsoever to act for your benefit. The only obligation I have is not to act against you.

      All profit is theft of wages. Profit is the difference between cost and price- and is therefore unpaid wages. Maximizing personal profit at the expense of your neighbors is indeed theft; and treason. And it should be treated as such. Greed is a mortal sin. You know why they call them mortal sins, don't you? Because they encourage somebody else to kill you.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    31. Re:Why? by Nexx · · Score: 1

      Who do you think invented the microchip? Gallium and arsenic are available from domestic sources as well.

      And the rare elements now used come from domestic or foreign sources?

      I challenge you to find an item we need from abroad, that has NO domestic production and NO potential for domestic production and NO alternative technology.

      Diamonds. There is no industrial production of diamonds in this country. Of course, I won't say there are NO alternative technologies -- narrowly defining the scope of this issue creates a straw-man argument. Are there domestic sources? Sure. Are they economically feasible to obtain? That's the question that needs to be asked.

    32. Re:Why? by Xonstantine · · Score: 1

      Why is it in their best interest to send money through the USA when we don't make much of what they want to buy, and we can't afford to buy what they sell? Because we DO make what they want to buy. It's called the US dollar. Artificial as it may be, just about every oil importing nation needs them. It's the de facto currency of reserve. Now, there's a historic reason for this that no longer holds true today, but the inertia in the system is immense. To switch, you have to have something to switch to. The Euro seems to be the heir apparent, but we'll see how they handle the liquidity crunch from the sub-prime fiasco (which, for some unknown reason, was shouldered by Asian and European banks more than US banks).
    33. Re:Why? by Xonstantine · · Score: 1

      http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6h ist1.txt M1 - 1.37 Trillion USD M2 - 7.27 Trillion USD So 38.6 billion USD is a drop in the bucket. But drops add up over time.

    34. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      And the rare elements now used come from domestic or foreign sources?

      See next point- just because it currently comes from a foreign source, doesn't mean that we can't find an equivalent that will work just as well right here in the good ole' USA- but we won't try because of labor cost.

      Diamonds.

      There's a public mine in Arkansas.

      There is no industrial production of diamonds in this country.

      Which is not the same as saying that we can't start one up- industrial diamonds are just crystallized carbon after all.

      Of course, I won't say there are NO alternative technologies -- narrowly defining the scope of this issue creates a straw-man argument.

      Well, when it comes to diamonds, we don't need any.

      Are there domestic sources? Sure. Are they economically feasible to obtain? That's the question that needs to be asked.

      And my point in this entire discussion is that economics can be engineered and is fungible. National security is not. By protecting and creating domestic industries to make everything we use, we can basically tell the world to fuck off if we need to (like during the current Islamic Reformation).

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    35. Re:Why? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      house prices fall if nobody can afford them.

    36. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Oh, the Chinese can afford them- then we become a nation of renters paying our cash back to our Chinese overlords. Why do you think they want a trade imbalance in the first place?

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    37. Re:Why? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      which, for some unknown reason, was shouldered by Asian and European banks more than US banks

      Thank you for this I hadn't connected dots on that, but you are right. There have been some incredible machinations in the financial system and they just seem to get more and more blatant. IMHO things are worse than most people think.

    38. Re:Why? by cjsm · · Score: 1

      Well, I agree with most of what you say (except sinking Chinese ships, I'm anti-violence). The point is, why should American workers be forced to compete with the Chinese workers who labor under a ruthless dictatorship which quells dissent, and which the workers have little rights, and little power. They are practically slave labor. The American Government should be fighting for American workers, but in reality, the government is the enemy of the American worker. Their main mission is to do the bidding of the multinational corporations. The corporations want to use cheap slave labor in China at the expense of American workers, and so the American Government enables it. Ever since Reagan, the government has been fostering economic policies which make the rich richer and the middle class poorer. Dumb fuck Americans are too stupid to see what's going on.

      --
      This ad space for rent.
    39. Re:Why? by painlord2k · · Score: 1

      If foreign trade is bad, so must be trading with strangers not from your state or county or city. Better you only buy from your neighbors or from your family. Or better, don't buy anything from anyone and do it all by yourself. In this way you could maximize your worker protections and the preservation of your environment.

    40. Re:Why? by Dr_Barnowl · · Score: 1

      I agree with you. There is presently a problem with this though.

      Capital loves automation. I used to have a CEO that opined that all his coders would be out of a job in 5 years because "it will all just be configuration!". Aside from being worthy of placement on a demotivator poster, this little soundbite turned out to be false, but I think it's probably true in the long run.

      In the job I do presently, I'm using more and more open-source code. When I can't find something that suits my needs, typically I end up patching something open-source, rather than implementing it from scratch. The only stuff I touch that's fully bespoke is churned out by a standards organization with a thriving consultancy culture that works very hard to keep itself in employment.

      I love open source, to me, it's great that people are essentially contributing to the intellectual wealth of humanity in a way that can spread amongst the entire (computer-using) population.

      But this isn't the way that capitalism works. Because capitalists want paying for goods and services, and the only way to gain exchange medium is to work.

      Now, if you automate a process that previously took 10 men, so that it now only takes one (and all he has to do is learn to push the button right), you are creating the same amount of "wealth" (product). But the wealth is less evenly spread. Your button pusher will get minimum wage, and your 9 engineers are out of a job. But wait, the expansion of the economy will see that they are employed, right?

      Wrong - the myth that there is unlimited potential growth in an economy just isn't true. And besides, all the other companies are also automating their processes. And when they automate process automation design, even the automation engineers are out of a job.

      So who BUYS the products? No-one! They can't afford it, because capitalism requires them earn money by working jobs that it no longer provides.

      The increase in technological sophistication since the industrial revolution has improved the human condition immensely. And by and large, the hiccups in the employment market have historically been absorbed into other industries.

      But realistically, we are reaching the limit. We are automating more and more, and producing more with less people. The engineer side of me loves efficiency - the real-world person worries about employment.

      The only way out of this trap is a way out of capitalism. We can no longer attach the ability of a person to purchase to his ability to do useful work - because capital no longer want the work of men, and are gaining the means to eliminate their need, the work of men will become worthless.

      This can go three ways -
        * A global disaster (slow or fast) renders humans extinct

      'nuff said.

        * We all regress to an agrarian or hunter-gatherer lifestyle

      Without the means to support your technological lifestyle, the only place to turn to is to the land.

        * Society moves forward with its technology

      We change to a different way of keeping score. An equal allotment of resources for each person on earth would seem to be fair. This is obviously a form of socialism. Socialism historically doesn't work because people want more than their allotted share. The only hope is that when the technology advances far enough to give people pretty much anything they want, they stop wanting more than the next guy has. Fully immersive VR technologies are probably the only way to give everyone everything they want. So it boils down to - can we provide a full VR rig to every person on earth without destroying the planet?

      Maybe those Matrix AIs had it right....

    41. Re:Why? by dajak · · Score: 1

      At least until China realizes that all they're getting for those plasma screens are IOUs that will never be paid off. I don't see any reason why we can't just sink the Chinese ships trying to cross our borders [..]

      That's what I always say: just sink those ships with Microsoft EULAs trying to cross our borders, and make our own copies! (I am a European.)

      The race for cheap labor is a race to the bottom, not to the top.

      Well, until labour demand outstrips labour supply again. You're being too pessimistic. But this will of course not happen in our lifetime given that we still have a potential labor supply of billions of poor people to go, unless WWIII or some other cataclysm kills of (preferably the inferior) half the world population instantly. The WWIII solution however only works if means of production remain available, so there is no reason to be too enthusiastic about that option: controlled cataclysms are notoriously hard to manage. You can for instance try to nuke part of the world based on GDP/capita, but this can get out of hand if other countries don't appreciate your good intentions and join in nuking the wrong people and lands. The black death pandemic in Europe in medieval times is for instance often credited with improving living conditions and making the Renaissance possible in Europe, but the positive effects set in more than a century after, which isn't very helpful.

    42. Re:Why? by bbdb · · Score: 1

      Just as free trade puts me in a transaction I didn't agree to.

      Bullshit. There is no transaction between you and those who, say, buy whatever produced in India. That transaction does not involve you, regardless of whatever sentimental hyperboles you spin.

      I didn't agree to join the WTO, or NAFTA.

      Similarly, I didn't agree for my govt to impose idiotic tariffs on my very own nation (to its own disadvantage, but people en masse think with sentiments like you instead of trying to use their brains and add the numbers up). That is not trade, that is politics and govt regulation, and you mix two realms that overlap but do not cover.

      I didn't agree to let Wal*Mart put my local mom&pop shops out of business.

      So? It's none of your fucking business if some people in the local community buy at Walmart instead of this "mom & pop" business. Not to mention that "mom&pop" is cost-inefficient in comparison. Which makes those local consumers spend more than they would have spent at Walmart. Which means they don't save what they save with walmart for the same quantity/quality of goods. So they are left with less money they would have spent otherwise. So ceteris paribus, "mom&pop" cost.. jobs.

      It is a paradox of perverted reality that those selfish consumers benefit USA and altruistic, dim gooks like you actually put it at disadvantage, nevertheless, that's how calm, rational thinking indicates it happens.

      For a supposed hacker, you can't count.


      I didn't agree to let the market destroy my community. That is ALL fraud.


      You're a sentimental fraud, that's all.

      All profit is theft of wages.

      That's what you get when you read marxism for dummies. FYI, the crucial point here is so called "transformation of prices" (labor into market prices), and marxists routinely "forget" to tell people that Marx has failed at this. As well as legions of lefties after him. Marx' labor theory of value is bullshit it turns out (go read e.g. Mark Blaug on rigorous mathematical proof), ergo this "profit is theft of wages" theory is bullshit.

      Labor is a COST. Not value. profit is made on merchandise on market outside the company, not on labor within the company.

      This businessman in 19th century has been employing lots of boys to turn the steam flowing to engine cylinders on and off. On off on off. One boy has cleverly tied the piston that was going down to the piston that was going up, and so it worked automatically and the boy went play. Businessman summarily applied his invention and selfishly and logically fired all the boys.

      Question: what happened to supposed value of labor of those boys? Evaporated? If so, why the value of enterprise and product wen t up instead of down when boys were fired? Why did his profit go up since supposed value of labor has evaporated?

      The key aspect here is of course necessity of labor. But its necessity does not make it _source of value_. It's still a cost, not value. That's why businessman's profit went up when he fired those boys. Thanks to which they could go to school while society as a whole had its production running without someone turning steam on and off in those engines (i.e. GDP has increased).

      This merciless, selfish act of businessman made little boys

      Profit is the difference between cost and price- and is therefore unpaid wages.

      "Marxism for dummies" does a lot of harm...

      Maximizing personal profit at the expense of your neighbors is indeed theft; and treason.

      Nope. It's really a virtue. Investment comes from nothing but profit. The opposite of profit is waste. Without profit there would be no technology, no civilization, no economy. More: there are well-founded arguments that achieving a profit (as such) is a MORAL DUTY.



      -- We should fire all Linux developers, without them so many little boys would have been employed in primitive and tedious jobs!

      --
      Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
    43. Re:Why? by BlackSnake112 · · Score: 1

      "...and that the nation that no longer produces ANYTHING will start losing high-paying manufacturing jobs (gee, kind of like what we've been doing for 40 years now?)."

      5-10 years if talking about computing
      15-25 years if talking about cars
      But 40 years? Lets see 2007-40 1967. The 1960s was a very busy time for the US on all fronts.

      I think someone posted enough to outlast the daily mod points.

    44. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      I'd go a couple steps further back and say ever since Nixon. But Nixon was a liberal in comparison to Reagan.

      But a part of this for me is a fear- we're heading towards a world war of religions. Aligning ourselves with Atheists isn't going to be a help in that war.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    45. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      If foreign trade is bad, so must be trading with strangers not from your state or county or city.

      Yes, but slightly less so. Foreign trade is bad because other countries are not covered by the same set of Federal Laws, giving them an absolute advantage, and you don't know how stable their government is, opening yourself up to potential consumer deaths when the supply is poisoned or cut off altogether. The argument against not trading with out-of-state, county, or city strangers is more money based- every dollar you spend with an out-of-state corporation gives 8 cents back to your neighbors, merely for the cost of doing business in your state. But every dollar you spend with an in-state manufacturer will give $8 of economic movement back to your neighbors- multiplying the power of your dollar to affect your community. This is in general of course- a much better example is the choice between driving and taking public transit, which in Portland, OR has become a $2.6 billion boon for the local community (since our trains run on clean wind and water energy, and our buses run on biodiesel and locally produced CNG, it's literally the difference between paying the Big Oil companies and paying local producers).

      Better you only buy from your neighbors or from your family. Or better, don't buy anything from anyone and do it all by yourself. In this way you could maximize your worker protections and the preservation of your environment.

      Absolutely- quite true. That's the 'gonie way.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    46. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      That's what I always say: just sink those ships with Microsoft EULAs trying to cross our borders, and make our own copies! (I am a European.)

      I've got no problem with that. The last time Bill Gates spoke before Congress, he proved himself to be a Free Traitor who cares NOTHING for America.

      Well, until labour demand outstrips labour supply again.

      Robots will keep that from EVER happening again.

      You're being too pessimistic. But this will of course not happen in our lifetime given that we still have a potential labor supply of billions of poor people to go, unless WWIII or some other cataclysm kills of (preferably the inferior) half the world population instantly. The WWIII solution however only works if means of production remain available, so there is no reason to be too enthusiastic about that option: controlled cataclysms are notoriously hard to manage. You can for instance try to nuke part of the world based on GDP/capita, but this can get out of hand if other countries don't appreciate your good intentions and join in nuking the wrong people and lands. The black death pandemic in Europe in medieval times is for instance often credited with improving living conditions and making the Renaissance possible in Europe, but the positive effects set in more than a century after, which isn't very helpful.

      Very true. And a century is too long- by then we'll have turned over all the jobs to the machines.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    47. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      There is no transaction between you and those who, say, buy whatever produced in India. That transaction does not involve you, regardless of whatever sentimental hyperboles you spin.

      There is when I have *NO* choice left but to buy from India, or China, or elsewhere. As I already do in certain small components such as capacitors and magnets (I've tried because of the incredibly shoddy ability to follow a capacitance oil recipe- this is the primary cause of motherboard failure).

      Similarly, I didn't agree for my govt to impose idiotic tariffs on my very own nation (to its own disadvantage, but people en masse think with sentiments like you instead of trying to use their brains and add the numbers up). That is not trade, that is politics and govt regulation, and you mix two realms that overlap but do not cover.

      I don't care about tariffs- I want zero contact. I don't want the choices of a toy manufacturer that I can't kill affecting my child's health EVER AGAIN.

      It's none of your fucking business if some people in the local community buy at Walmart instead of this "mom & pop" business. Not to mention that "mom&pop" is cost-inefficient in comparison. Which makes those local consumers spend more than they would have spent at Walmart. Which means they don't save what they save with walmart for the same quantity/quality of goods. So they are left with less money they would have spent otherwise. So ceteris paribus, "mom&pop" cost.. jobs.

      Except, of course, that Walmart stuff is crap and just fills up landfills. Which destroys my groundwater that my child drinks. That's treason- allowing greed to affect the local environment.

      It is a paradox of perverted reality that those selfish consumers benefit USA and altruistic, dim gooks like you actually put it at disadvantage, nevertheless, that's how calm, rational thinking indicates it happens.

      I don't consider piling up money to be a benefit. Nor do I consider contact with the REAL gooks (get a dictionary, idiot) to be a benefit.

      That's what you get when you read marxism for dummies. FYI, the crucial point here is so called "transformation of prices" (labor into market prices), and marxists routinely "forget" to tell people that Marx has failed at this. As well as legions of lefties after him. Marx' labor theory of value is bullshit it turns out (go read e.g. Mark Blaug on rigorous mathematical proof), ergo this "profit is theft of wages" theory is bullshit.

      Mark Blaug is the real fake- you missed the fact that he failed to separate out descrete units in his mathematical proof.

      Labor is a COST. Not value. profit is made on merchandise on market outside the company, not on labor within the company.

      If you were paying your workers what they were actually worth- there would be no profit. Only by cheating the worker of his worth can you have profit.

      This businessman in 19th century has been employing lots of boys to turn the steam flowing to engine cylinders on and off. On off on off. One boy has cleverly tied the piston that was going down to the piston that was going up, and so it worked automatically and the boy went play. Businessman summarily applied his invention and selfishly and logically fired all the boys.

      Except, that never actually happened- because nobody could turn the valves fast enough. If your premise is a lie, so is your conclusion.

      Question: what happened to supposed value of labor of those boys? Evaporated? If so, why the value of enterprise and product wen t up instead of down when boys were fired? Why did his profit go up since supposed value of labor has evaporated?

      The labor never existed to begin with, so it doesn't matter. Next time pick a real world example.

      The key aspect here is of course necessity of labor. But its necessity does not make it _source of value_. It's still a cost, not value. That's why businessman's profit went up when h

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    48. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      I've still got Mod points to spare- I'm noplace close to the 50 in a day limit.

      Having said that- in the 1960s was when Japan started to export cars to the United States, which was the beginning of the long, slow slide. Or did you think the first Datsun to hit these shores was in the early 1980s?

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    49. Re:Why? by bbdb · · Score: 1

      Nope. You fell in the same hole as Greider did.

      http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/hotdog.html

      --
      Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
    50. Re:Why? by painlord2k · · Score: 1
      Foreign trade is bad because other countries are not covered by the same set of Federal Laws, giving them an absolute advantage, and you don't know how stable their government is, opening yourself up to potential consumer deaths when the supply is poisoned or cut off altogether.


      Nonsense. Clear and simple nonsense.
      This is the same arguments protectionist all over the world use to protect their commerce against concurrents. I, an Italian, could say the same of the good produced in the USA and sold in Italy or in the EU.

      Then the 8 cents and 8$ is purely made up statistic. Historically protectionism went against economic growth in the [not so] long run everywhere and always.

      If I buy good or services at lower prices I am able to buy the same good or services and be able to spend the saved money in different ways (saving, investing, buy more of the same). I'm richer if I'm able to buy the same goods at lower prices. Protectionism, in the long run, make all poorer.
      This because in a world where commerce is possible, specialization of the production is possible and with specialization come a huge growth in productivity. The commerce is historically the source of the wellness and wealth of the nations.

      If it is not, please name a country rich that don't commerce.
    51. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      This is the same arguments protectionist all over the world use to protect their commerce against concurrents. I, an Italian, could say the same of the good produced in the USA and sold in Italy or in the EU.

      Absolutely, and it's true. The USA's bad labor protection laws (in comparison to Europe) give us an absolute advantage over the EU. Just as the lack of worker and environmental protection in China is kicking all of our asses.

      Then the 8 cents and 8$ is purely made up statistic. Historically protectionism went against economic growth in the [not so] long run everywhere and always.

      Bullshit. Protectionism worked just fine for the Chinook Trading Tribes, there was a reason why Chinook was the warm wind and the Five Brothers was the evil cold east wind.

      If I buy good or services at lower prices I am able to buy the same good or services and be able to spend the saved money in different ways (saving, investing, buy more of the same).

      Except, of course, that's money wasted to the greater community- because it's left our community to benefit somebody else, or it's been hoarded to benefit nobody. Savings and investing is the greatest lie in the world.

      I'm richer if I'm able to buy the same goods at lower prices.

      But the community is poorer, which is the point. There's a reason why people starved in the United States last year.

      Protectionism, in the long run, make all poorer.

      Community is a greater value than money. You're measuring your net worth entirely in terms of worship of an idol.

      This because in a world where commerce is possible, specialization of the production is possible and with specialization come a huge growth in productivity.

      Growth in productivity is just lost jobs.

      The commerce is historically the source of the wellness and wealth of the nations.

      Only if your priest is Adam Smith instead of the Pope.

      If it is not, please name a country rich that don't commerce.

      The Kalapuya considered themselves to be extremely wealthy. Of course, their wealth came not from commerce, but from living in harmony with the planet at a standard of living that was within the carrying capacity of their environment. They were wealthy enough to engage in commerce of course, but that commerce was not the source of their wealth, but rather the result.

      That's what I'm really asking for- our country to be self sufficient, and provide for EVERY citizen a job sufficient to provide food, clothing, and shelter- before "specializing" and allowing people to become rich. Because only then, only when everybody is taken care of and NOBODY slips through the cracks, can we call ourselves as Wealthy of a People as the Kalapuya could. Unless we are WE, and not individuals, we will never gain that simple wealth of a third world worker.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    52. Re:Why? by painlord2k · · Score: 1

      You have wrote that spending your money you enhance the local economy more than spending it in foreign goods at lower prices. If it is so, you have no excuses to not buy local. Whatever was or is the price. If the goods you need are not available, under your theory, you will have a greater profit producing them locally than buying them from abroad. This is the normal behavior of Marxists, they like talk the talk but they refrain to walk the walk. They prefer to someone else to walk the walk.

    53. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      You have wrote that spending your money you enhance the local economy more than spending it in foreign goods at lower prices. If it is so, you have no excuses to not buy local. Whatever was or is the price. If the goods you need are not available, under your theory, you will have a greater profit producing them locally than buying them from abroad. This is the normal behavior of Marxists, they like talk the talk but they refrain to walk the walk. They prefer to someone else to walk the walk.

      I buy locally whenever I can. The WTO and NAFTA are trade agreements that by law, prevent us from buying locally. INDIVIDUAL PROFIT is not a consideration int he analysis at all- because it's just a straw man, a fake.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    54. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      A good for instance in this case is Thomas the Tank Engine wooden trains. Wooden train technology uses magnets to join the trains together. Magnets are no longer made in North America- anywhere. ALL magnets in the world are made in East Asia. You literally cannot buy wooden railway sets that are 100% made in America. The WTO actually has made it illegal to manufacture magnets in the United States- not just unprofitable, but illegal, as in if we start up a magnet factory here we'll face tariff sanctions in the world court to prevent us from exporting those magnets.

      Needless to say, I have a 4-year-old boy. I knew this and didn't buy him such train, but others gave him gifts. Sure enough, he had a James the Red Engine that was manufactured between 2002 and 2004, in China. Because of that, I have to pay for expensive heavy metal testing that our health insurance won't cover, and he may have to go into Chelation Therapy to expunge the lead from his body.

      Tell me, is your free market willing to pay for that?

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    55. Re:Why? by painlord2k · · Score: 1
      I buy locally whenever I can. The WTO and NAFTA are trade agreements that by law, prevent us from buying locally. INDIVIDUAL PROFIT is not a consideration int he analysis at all- because it's just a straw man, a fake.


      Excuses.
      Or are you forced, at gunpoint or armtwisted, to buy chinese stuff?
      If your arguments are true, you buy local always, and what you are not able to buy you produce yourself. Doing otherwise is hypocrisy.
      And don't tell it cost too much money for you to buy local stuff or doing it yourself it is too difficult, too time wasting and so on. It is your point that local is always better. Not mine.

      The good of the community is a strawman. Because I know what is my individual interests, but I don't know what is the community interest. I say the community interest it is to commerce with all, you say different.

      <blockquote>The Kalapuya [wikipedia.org] considered themselves to be extremely wealthy.<blockquote>
      What they consider themselves is their businesses, and how I consider myself is my businesses.
      But it is interesting how you use as example an extinct people.
      Try again with something living and I could be more impressed.
    56. Re:Why? by jamesmrankinjr · · Score: 1

      (which, for some unknown reason, was shouldered by Asian and European banks more than US banks)

      Doesn't sound so mysterious, really. Europe and Asia needed some place to park the US dollars they get from selling us stuff. U.S. real estate (and real estate around the world) was going up for a long time, so they probably used some of those dollars to buy the-now-infamous mortgage backed securities.

      I don't have any figures to prove this, but it seems reasonable, no?

      -jimbo

    57. Re:Why? by Stu+Charlton · · Score: 1

      Unless something comes along that pays a living wage, not even 20 years from now. The race for cheap labor is a race to the bottom, not to the top.

      This ignores productivity gains. Wages rise as a national productivity rises.

      All of this talk about how trade is going to destroy our future, in my respectful opinion, false. The real problem you're talking about occurs if U.S. productivity eventually lags the rest of the world's productivty. That currently isn't the case. It is of note, however that U.S. productivity, which grew in the 1990's, seems to becoming stagnant again, as it has been since the 70's (and is arguably a major factor in why wages have been stagnant).

      No, I'm saying that if they want to sell goods here, then they have to pay equal to American wages. If they don't want to pay equal to American wages, then I see NO reason why we should allow their imports AT ALL.

      Because trade enriches both nations. I know you don't believe that, but I do, and I do think the data is available that proves it: you make the stuff here, it's no longer as cheap for the consumer.

      The primary issue we have is to transition the population towards more productive labour -- that would be highly skilled labour, service labour, or knowledge work. The "burger-flipping economy" assumes no increase in education or training in the workforce. This can, and has changed in the past (The G.I's bill of rights after WW2, for example).

      Besides issues with education, something the U.S. has faltered on for years, the economic world has very few macro tools for measuring, let alone increasing, productivity in the service sector. It happens, but we don't know how.

      --
      -Stu
    58. Re:Why? by Some+Pig! · · Score: 1

      prove it.

      For the first two in particular, see Gomory and Baumol, Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests, and references there. Samuelson himself has acclaimed their results.

    59. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      This ignores productivity gains. Wages rise as a national productivity rises.

      No, stockholder PROFITS rise as national productivity rises. Wages rise as a function of worker retention- and in a world where it's perceived by management that experience, citizenship, and education are worth nothing, there's no need to retain workers. Why endanger stockholder profits to pay wages you aren't FORCED to pay?

      All of this talk about how trade is going to destroy our future, in my respectful opinion, false. The real problem you're talking about occurs if U.S. productivity eventually lags the rest of the world's productivty. That currently isn't the case. It is of note, however that U.S. productivity, which grew in the 1990's, seems to becoming stagnant again, as it has been since the 70's (and is arguably a major factor in why wages have been stagnant).

      Productivity is about profits, not wages. During the 1990s, real wages fell when compared to inflation.

      Because trade enriches both nations.

      If by "nation" you mean the rich. In reality, the poor are just being decimated to pay for the "enrichment".

      I know you don't believe that, but I do, and I do think the data is available that proves it: you make the stuff here, it's no longer as cheap for the consumer.

      So what? If you have a $20/hr factory job, you can afford the higher prices. If you've got a $7.50/hr restaurant job, you're not even going to be able to afford the lower prices- everything you earn will go to food, clothing, or shelter. Cheap is worthless.

      The primary issue we have is to transition the population towards more productive labour -- that would be highly skilled labour, service labour, or knowledge work. The "burger-flipping economy" assumes no increase in education or training in the workforce. This can, and has changed in the past (The G.I's bill of rights after WW2, for example).

      All highly skilled labor and knowledge work can be done cheaper in another country. Service labor IS burger-flipping. Why should a corporation pay $40,000 in taxes here, to send an American to college and get back a skilled worker earning $40,000 here, when the same corporation can pay $4000 in taxes in India, send a bright young man to the India Institute of Technology, and have the same skilled worker in India for $10,000/year? That is absolute advantage. The one difference is the job that can't be offshored- the service job- which is shuffling papers and flipping burgers for federal minimum wage.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    60. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Or are you forced, at gunpoint or armtwisted, to buy chinese stuff?

      Have you bothered to read the GATT treaty? Certain products *MUST* be made in the second world, by the lowest common bidder, because otherwise the UN would be forced to blockade our ports. Magnets are among these, and gee, speakers, hard drives, and those little wooden trains my 4-year old likes so much all have magnets in them. China is the *ONLY* country by international law allowed to produce magnets right now.

      If your arguments are true, you buy local always, and what you are not able to buy you produce yourself.

      Almost true- I'm law abiding above all else, and for me local production has to be legal. I'd much rather *all* local production be legal- that's why I'm against the free traitors after all- but it simply isn't.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    61. Re:Why? by Stu+Charlton · · Score: 1

      Well, I'm glad you've got it all figured out. Have fun hugging your copies of Das Kapital.

      --
      -Stu
    62. Re:Why? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Nice wimpout- I was looking forward to an explanation of how wages were *strongly* linked to productivity, instead of to market rate as they appear to be. (note: if wages are linked to market rate, rather than productivity, then free trade is a betrayal of the working class- instead of accepting the supply vs. demand price of a given skill, it means that the upper class just will sign "trade treaties" to increase the supply until wages are depressed to whatever point they wish to pay- with anybody whose standard of living requires a higher wage priced out of the market).

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  20. It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by Colin+Smith · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The US declared bankruptcy on the 15th of August 1971.

    Nobody noticed or seemed to care. Which I have to admit I find a touch odd. But... at the same time, in 1972 and 1973 they managed to persuade the House of Saudi to denominate oil in US dollars so everyone had to buy dollars to buy oil. Perhaps you'll start to understand the close relationship between the US and Saudi now.

    This genius has allowed the US to export it's inflation to the rest of the world for decades. It may have been desperation or genius, but whoever it was that thought it up should be given the highest medal by the US government and people. It's given the US a truly massive advantage over all of the other countries.

    Of course, 40 years later, everyone is starting to wake up to the importance of currency, and the oil producers are starting to switch away from the US dollar as it's value dwindles.

    "A nation-state taxes its own citizens, while an empire taxes other nation-states."
    And inflation is just another form of taxation.

    Brilliant.

    --
    Deleted
    1. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by twitter · · Score: 1

      There's a carrier strike force named "Absolute Genius"? There's nothing new about gunboat diplomacy and it ultimately ends the same way.

      in 1972 and 1973 they managed to persuade the House of Saudi to denominate oil in US dollars so everyone had to buy dollars to buy oil. Perhaps you'll start to understand the close relationship between the US and Saudi now. ... "A nation-state taxes its own citizens, while an empire taxes other nation-states."

      Roll Britannia, Britannia rules the waves. Britian's own will never be slaves!

      You would think people could learn from the mistakes of others.

      The flaw - to enslave others you have to enslave yourself. It starts when you believe that slavery is OK. When you do that, your neighbors across the street don't look much different than someone further away. Slavery requires force. Force requires sacrifice. Your neighbor is the sacrifice and you are made of the same material.

      --

      Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.

    2. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by megaditto · · Score: 1

      All credit goes to Nixon. As much as you liberals hate the man, he is still the greatest President. And before you go on to mention his morals, he was voted in as the President, not a preacher (same for Clinton).

      --
      Obama likes poor people so much, he wants to make more of them.
    3. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's why iran(4th world oil producing country) is dangerous for the US: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Oil_Bourse .

    4. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And before you go on to mention his morals, he was voted in as the President, not a preacher (same for Clinton).
      they aren't preachers but they damn well better follow our laws and constitution, and that is why Bush, Cheney and Nixon need to be locked in a fucking space prison.
    5. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by faragon · · Score: 1

      Brilliant.

      Well, it is quite common that justice for the one is usually an unjustice for the other.

      The dollarification of the [oil] world economy seems to be a sword with two blades: while throwing inflation to the "Chinese Inflation Hole" and getting oil for free, the other side means deindustrialization, dependency, and artificial dollar value sustainment. Now we are facing a world wide credit crunch, mainly due to "financial engineering" which has delivered "false richness", implying hidden hyperinflation between the "real economy" and the "credit-monetary-multiplication economy".

      In my opinion, first world countries should be aware about the dangers of deintustrializing its countries (North America, Europe, East Asia, etc.), as a Chinese currency evaluation, or dollar/euro explicit hyperinflation could make impossible to keep the localization and derive the 1st world economies to the stagflation (deflation of non-oil related goods and inflation of oil-related goods). I hope a world wide convergence to an average standard of living.

      Now the markets cry for cheaper money from the Fed and the ECB, wanting interest rate lowering, being that a *robbery* for people's savings, much in the way of awarding/tipping financial-cheaters, speculators, and to punish the savings of rational, risk-aware, people. In my opinion it is very hypocrite to want a market liberalization when everything seems to be ok, and interventionism when financial abuse exploes: may be, keeping a liberal context, but with few debt limitation rules, the current financial mess could have been avoided.
    6. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      http://archives.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/meast/10/30/ira q.un.euro.reut/

      "U.N. to let Iraq sell oil for euros, not dollars"

      Not anymore.
      And how about those UN guys?
      Gone from strength to strength with full confidence of the US. I don't think.

    7. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      Well, it is quite common that justice for the one is usually an unjustice for the other. Well, yes, but you have to admit that it is a piece of geopolitical brilliance on the part of whoever thought it up. After all, the US had only just lost the cold war. Two years later and they've put a situation in place which will allow them to spend the USSR into oblivion.

      The dollarification of the [oil] world economy seems to be a sword with two blades: while throwing inflation to the "Chinese Inflation Hole" and getting oil for free, the other side means deindustrialization, dependency, and artificial dollar value sustainment Features I've also noticed about it. You can add some social and political aspects as well when you consider it makes it easy for politicians to spend money on the military industrial complex. You then get inevitable increase in the power of politicians because they always have money. It becomes important for large companies to try to influence those politicians so corruption increases.
      --
      Deleted
    8. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by faragon · · Score: 1
      Yes, I admit that the US have developed a brilliant geopolitical empire, but I'm not sure that the brightness could be maintained ad infinitum, as it implies a global deep disequilibrium. Artificially sustained standard of living drive to monetary problems; imagine if China decide about to flood the international market with dollars, it could be the last flick of the wrist to put down the US economy, and the rest of the world economy as collateral effect, into a critical situation.

      Being European myself, I want the best for the US economy, as in a globalized market, if a big economy gets sick, sooner or later will affect the others. That's because I was trying to argue that the world economy should avoid artificial disequilibrium, keeping the market free, but limiting the grade of speculation (some speculation is OK, but a grade of speculation 5 times your GDP is *dangerous*).

      Features I've also noticed about it. You can add some social and political aspects as well when you consider it makes it easy for politicians to spend money on the military industrial complex. You then get inevitable increase in the power of politicians because they always have money. It becomes important for large companies to try to influence those politicians so corruption increases.
      I'm scared/afraid by your last paragraph: what if politics, due its capacity to print money, and being corrupts, instead of managing the country resources properly, use the war for resources or to avoid bankrupt? That is because I want geopolitical and economic stability, it would be easier to reduce Trade Deficit, increase global richness, energy-efficient productivity boost, and the more important: true and huge portion of middle class.
    9. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      but I'm not sure that the brightness could be maintained ad infinitum, Oh no, it can't.

      We're seeing the results now, in order to maintain the status quo, oil must continue to be denominated in dollars, anything which threatens that has to be put down. Iraq switched in 2000 to Euros... and have now switched back to dollars... Iran is just about to switch to Euros for oil, and Venezuela are trading oil directly in other currencies.

      I predict that both Iran and Venezuela will either suffer coups, civil war or some other massive destabilisation as the US attempts to persuade them to switch back to US dollars. Sometime in the next 5 years or so.

      I'm scared/afraid by your last paragraph: what if politics, due its capacity to print money, and being corrupts, instead of managing the country resources properly, use the war for resources or to avoid bankrupt? To be honest, we've had 40 years of the situation. There are trillions of dollars out there. It's already happened. It's way too late.

      The US dollar is massively over valued, the trade deficit and national debt show that. Unless the US government can stop the oil producers switching (they have an iron clad deal with Saudi to stop them, and they invaded Iraq to stop them) the dollar is going to continue to slide into worthlessness as everyone unloads their USD reserves.

      The US will experience huge levels of inflation as the money comes home. Interest rates will rocket to compensate, US property and business markets will crash as credit becomes extremely expensive and the US will become a very poor country.

      The alternative is a long slow linear decline in the dollar. Which means somehow preventing panic in the markets and to do that you have to stop them predicting the decline of the dollar. I think this may be what Bush and buddies are aiming for. However markets simply don't work that way, they make exponential corrections.
      --
      Deleted
    10. Re:It isn't luck, it was *absolute genius* by faragon · · Score: 1

      The US will experience huge levels of inflation as the money comes home. Interest rates will rocket to compensate, US property and business markets will crash as credit becomes extremely expensive and the US will become a very poor country.

      The alternative is a long slow linear decline in the dollar. Which means somehow preventing panic in the markets and to do that you have to stop them predicting the decline of the dollar. I think this may be what Bush and buddies are aiming for. However markets simply don't work that way, they make exponential corrections.

      I'm glad to read such grade of insight, thank you very much for your exposition. I also expect the worst recession for Spain, where I live, since the 70's oil crisis. The context, in my opinion is quite similar to the 90's Japanese financial/stock-asset and housing bubble (credit crunch + deflation), we also have a huge levels of Trade Deficit. As individual, the only thing I can do is prepare for the hit: investment diversification (mainly public debt, avoiding the stock market and speculative funds), and living with no debts at all.

      I think that we'll be able to deal with the crisis, as World "real economy" has no important problems, it is just the "economy-fiction" that represent a global fight for power. Due that it is not a production problem, just a power distribution, I imagine only two solution/stabilization contexts: 1) a global agreement to solve the financial situation, 2) WW III (I hope this does not happen soon).
  21. Spain has a similar trade deficit by renau · · Score: 1

    USA and Spain has similar trade deficits, not in absolute terms but as a
    percentage of their GDP. The "excuse" for Spain is that they have lots
    of tourism that bring "cash", but I think that it is as much crap as
    the excuses that they say in USA (not a problem).

    Nevertheless, I am more worried about US because Spain shares currency
    with other countries with trade surplus (EU).

  22. Yup, we're going to crash. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No one cares where their goods come from.

    No one cares about workers rights when they are shopping.

    All we want is cheap and fast...

    We're gonna collapse as we undercut the bottom of our pyramid...

    Big surprise.

    1. Re:Yup, we're going to crash. by xgr3gx · · Score: 1

      Not me man. I actively try to find items made in the US. I will gladly pay more for a US made item over some shitty quality Chinese made item. Labor in China is so freaking cheap b/c it's practically slave labor. It's horrible. I think alot of people will start thinking that way now that China has been exposed for their cheap product manufacturing. All those toys recalls should open some eyes, at least until the holiday season. Crap.

      --
      Shameless plug alert: Game server control panel
  23. Worldwide trade deficit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The Planet Earth trade deficit with other spacefaring worlds stands at 0 Altairian dollars, unchanged since the last reporting period.

  24. Suffering? Not hardly! by sylvandb · · Score: 1

    I sure wouldn't call it suffering. I'd say we are enjoying a huge trade deficit. As another pointed out, we get to trade dollars (which we "print" at very low cost) for tangible stuff. What's not to like?

    Suffering comes later, if/when everyone else decides they have enough of our dollars. Then either they won't take any more, or they will send back the ones they have and buy out our entire country.

    sdb

  25. Nothing to see here... by russlar · · Score: 1

    Nothing to look at people, move along now...

    --
    Anybody want my mod points?
  26. Manufacturing by ShatteredArm · · Score: 1

    I guess being a factory worker is your idea of a good career path?

    1. Re:Manufacturing by geeknado · · Score: 1

      As opposed to being a fry cook or simply unemployed? Absolutely.

  27. Being a conservative without being a con by tepples · · Score: 1

    GWB and the rest of his administration are the golden boys of conservatism. It's pretty obvious to conclude that conservatives need to be thrown in prison and never, ever released.

    Conservative is just another way of saying criminal. By "conservative", you mean neoconservative, right? There was conservatism before the neo-cons.
  28. Here's how you can help ... by BayaWeaver · · Score: 1

    Don't buy stuff like this or this. Or your money will be going to Japan. I know it's hard to resist and many won't be able to when these are available in November and there'll be a long waiting list for them. I already have a D70 and a D200 but man, I just gotta get my hands on these new babies that were announced today. They'll be available only on November but my money is already starting to burn a hole in my pocket.

    1. Re:Here's how you can help ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      wtf? did nikon pay you to make that post?

  29. Re: [AC] It's true by everphilski · · Score: 1

    Maybe the non-american should read a dictionary.

    beyond the boundaries of one's country. No implication of overseas.

    Of course, you might not be an American, and it is rather public knowledge that you will skew information to try and bring us down to your level.

  30. Did the NAFTA authors submit the FP? by pla · · Score: 1

    and North America more than 15 percent.

    Nice tactful way to say "Mexico", guys...

    And I have nothing against that. "Grape-pickers" and all that - Thanks for the cheap stuff you've destroyed your bodies and your local environment to produce for us; enjoy the increasingly less valuable paper we traded it for (and to think, we laugh in school when we first learn the price of Manhattan...).

    1. Re:Did the NAFTA authors submit the FP? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because, you know, Canada's trade with the United States doesn't account for 85% of its exports.

  31. Please reformulate by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

    to specify neoconservatives. Traditional conservatives have been disenfranchised by their party and told they're variously Libertatians, Dinosaurs, Paleo-conservatives, etc. in order to keep them out. Too bad it also keeps out their good sense, sound monetary policies, etc.

    --
    "If still these truths be held to be
    Self evident."
    -Edna St. Vincent Millay
  32. Feh. by ErikZ · · Score: 1

    The US has been in trade deficit since 1976. At what point does it start to be "Business as usual" instead of "Suffering"?

    --
    Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
  33. Trade deficit a problem for many countries by MyNameIsFred · · Score: 1

    Many posters seem to think this is a US-only problem. This issue is much bigger. For example, the EU has a large trade deficit with China. Since the EU and US economies are about the same order of magnitude, and their trade deficits with China are similarly sized. I would argue that their economies have similar issues. All this discussion about exporting jobs, exporting factories, etc. needs to consider this.

    1. Re:Trade deficit a problem for many countries by Anspen · · Score: 1

      Many posters seem to think this is a US-only problem. This issue is much bigger. For example, the EU has a large trade deficit with China. Since the EU and US economies are about the same order of magnitude, and their trade deficits with China are similarly sized. I would argue that their economies have similar issues. All this discussion about exporting jobs, exporting factories, etc. needs to consider this.

      Two problems with this. One: that isn't quite true. THough they indeed have similiar sized economies the EU's deficit with Chine, while quite large at almost 170bn, is much smaller than the US one of more than $ 700 bn.

      Second: while the EU has a significant deficit with Chine, overall it has a quite small one of some $10 billion. Thanks to surplussed with other trading partners such as: the US.

  34. A better academic read on this subject.. by .Chndru · · Score: 2, Informative
  35. economics on Slashdot by syrinx · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I can tell that this will be a useful discussion. Once I'm finished reading the insightful and intelligent posts here, I think I'll go to the blog of The Economist or the Wall Street Journal and ask them about the latest Ubuntu release!

    --
    Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur.
    1. Re:economics on Slashdot by Hatta · · Score: 1

      I can tell that this will be a useful discussion. Once I'm finished reading the insightful and intelligent posts here, I think I'll go to the blog of The Economist or the Wall Street Journal and ask them about the latest Ubuntu release!

      And why not, they might have some interesting things to say.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    2. Re:economics on Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In light of many of your previous posts as well as your condescending attitude, perhaps, you would do better here.

  36. Oil is sold for dollars. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They need something that they can only buy with dollars: Oil. One suspected reason for the recent "interest" that the US has developed for the middle east is that there are ambitions to trade oil in euros. If that were to happen, the demand for dollars would be reduced dramatically and that would not only leave the US with much higher prices for consumer goods, but also with a relative oil price that would cripple the country's own oil-dependant economy.

    1. Re:Oil is sold for dollars. by Colin+Smith · · Score: 2, Insightful
      --
      Deleted
  37. Feudalism is the answer by drooling-dog · · Score: 1

    No worries - we're sliding headlong into feudalism, the conservative utopia. There will always be a plentitude of feudal lords to serve on their Manors. Surely they will treat their serfs with kindness, compassion, and generosity, as they have through all of history.

  38. Submitter is fear mongering by SIIHP · · Score: 2, Informative

    From TFA

    "U.S. technology product imports exceeded exports for the first time in 2002 starting a trend that left a $38.3 billion trade deficit in 2006 after reaching a high of $44.4 billion in 2005."

    So it actually went down.

    Also

    "in 2006, the United States continued to export considerably more than it imported in two technology areas: aerospace and electronics."

    Oh, the horror.

    --
    I only go to buffets for the unlimited soft serve.
  39. Maybe there's a reason ... by LaughingCoder · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Tell me another country whose government routinely punishes their most successful companies (AT&T, IBM, Microsoft) while at the same time spending billions to prop up failing companies (Chrysler). This is backwards behavior that naturally leads to trade deficits. What surprises me is how the US government does not smarten up and notice everyone else laughing at us.

    --
    The more you regulate a company, the worse its products become.
    1. Re:Maybe there's a reason ... by notamisfit · · Score: 1

      That's probably about 99% of the problem right there. Both sides of the mainstream political spectrum want the United States to be the economic superpower it once was, without any understanding of how it got there (ie, probably not central planning, punitive taxation, and subsidies). We handcuff domestic companies and make them unable to compete, and then we act shocked when they go out of business. Then, right out of the pages of Collectivism 101 (see also: Health Care), we claim that "freedom" has been given a chance and failed, so greater government control is needed. At this point, I wouldn't be too disappointed if the whole damn thing falls apart. Those who are capable of doing something that can create value will likely continue doing so, and those who can't, or won't, won't be able to continue their scavenging.

      --
      Jesus is coming -- look busy!
    2. Re:Maybe there's a reason ... by b0s0z0ku · · Score: 1
      Then, right out of the pages of Collectivism 101 (see also: Health Care), we claim that "freedom" has been given a chance and failed

      Single-payer health care is a good thing for capitalism, since under the CURRENT system, employees are tied to their employers under risk of losing their insurance. If everyone were insured irrespective of employment, employees would be much more mobile and likely to start their own businesses, thus increasing innovation.

      -b.

    3. Re:Maybe there's a reason ... by notamisfit · · Score: 1

      Socialized medicine (I won't euphemize it) may or may not have some benefits. But it is a violation of my rights to have my property forcibly taken from me to pay for someone else's health care. Because I have a selfish interest in living in a society in which individual rights are respected, I am therefor opposed to socialized medicine.

      --
      Jesus is coming -- look busy!
    4. Re:Maybe there's a reason ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem isn't that we punish our companies; it's that other countries pour tax dollars into propping up their country's companies. We do this with agriculture, which is a major cause of most of the world hating us (you know, terrorism, and all that).

      Are you suggesting that we should socialize our businesses like other countries do? Is permitting privatization what you mean by "punishing our businesses"? Or do you just think that they shouldn't pay taxes?

    5. Re:Maybe there's a reason ... by Aram+Fingal · · Score: 1

      Actually, I think these legal actions are important in maintaining the quality of US industry and, therefore, combating trade deficits. The problem is that recent Republican administrations have not done a good job applying the law to keep free markets free. The Clinton Administration tried but they didn't have enough time. To address your examples, the IBM antitrust thing never really went anywhere (except to employ lots of lawyers) but I think I see the other two examples a bit differently than you do.

      Many people complain that phone service didn't get any cheaper, and customer service didn't get any better after the breakup of AT&T but there were some good things that happened also. Audio quality of phone lines increased dramatically and the "Baby Bells" invested heavily in internet infrastructure. I would bet that the good points of the AT&T breakup outweighed the bad by a significant margin, although it's never possible to do a real analysis of that kind of situation. You would have to compare what actually happened to what would have happened in the alternate reality where AT&T remained a monopoly but everything else was exactly the same.

      Microsoft is still in possession of their monopoly power for now and, as the article says, the US still dominates the software industry. The problem I see is that Microsoft's monopoly is a prime motivator for foreign interests to try and build a competitor and use political means to protect and promote it. Here in the US we forgive Microsoft for many of their flaws because they are American but people in other parts of the world don't see things that way. The fact that Microsoft has the market power to remain complacent in many areas and still keep their profits, makes the technical barriers lower for some future competitor to rise out of Germany, Japan, China, India or some other country. A breakup of Microsoft would be one of the best things that we could do to preserve the ability of the US software industry to compete in the long run. They need to compete at home to be able to compete abroad and you can't have free markets without antitrust actions.

    6. Re:Maybe there's a reason ... by LaughingCoder · · Score: 1

      Many people complain that phone service didn't get any cheaper, and customer service didn't get any better after the breakup of AT&T but there were some good things that happened also.
      That may be true, but per my assertion, the vast majority of US phones are now made abroad. Back when AT&T had a monopoly every phone was US-made. Of course that was because it wasn't possible to attach any other phones to Ma Bell's network, but it certainly made for favorable conditions as regards the trade deficit.

      I would bet that the good points of the AT&T breakup outweighed the bad by a significant margin
      I agree that the US consumer benefited overall from the AT&T breakup. However, so did foreign companies who could suddenly participate in the huge US telecom market.

      A breakup of Microsoft would be one of the best things that we could do to preserve the ability of the US software industry to compete in the long run.
      That is debatable. Why would the US software industry suddenly be better able to compete sans Microsoft, but foreign companies would not? I think if you remove MS from the equation it would be a free-for-all, with a much larger share of the pie going overseas. For starters, if Microsoft were to be dismantled, there would be a massive $20+ billion dollar per year dent in US tech exports that would have to be made up by other US companies. Much of that business would no doubt go to other US companies, but a healthy chunk would also go abroad ... contributing further to the tech trade deficit.

      My original comment was specifically addressing what I perceive to be one significant factor in today's tech trade deficit. It is a completely different discussion as what affects these tech trade deficits have on the country. FWIW, I happen to think they don't matter much in the grand scheme of things.
      --
      The more you regulate a company, the worse its products become.
    7. Re:Maybe there's a reason ... by Magada · · Score: 1

      You, like other Ayn Rand cryptofascists, live under the impression that since you're superior, you'll never get really sick. Guess what? Your beloved "selfish interest" dictates that drugs/treatments for life-threatening conditions will always be expensive in an open market (from a cost/price perspective) because:
      a. demand is relatively inelastic (i.e. most people want to live as long as possible)
      b. individual clients are not likely to hang around much

      That's why many sane countries create socialized medicine systems - essentially state-run monopsonies, which are then supposed to squeeze the profit margin of drug and healthcare providers as thin as possible, on one hand, while ensuring that everyone pays their "fair" share for the advantage of having "free" access to healthcare on the other. A difficult balancing act, to be sure, which usually leads to corruption in the system, underfunded hospitals and less-than innovative drug makers, but which provides chronic sufferers with a reasonable standard of care and usually places a lot of emphasis on preventative measures (like vaccination, family planning and the fight against obesity) because they give more bang for the buck than actual healthcare. This is not to say that the rich can't buy the best, of course - that is true in any system.

      This beats the alternative of having profit-motivated insurers - go-betweens which are selfishly interested to squeeze BOTH sides of the deal as tightly as possible - that's how you get the US situation where hospitals run on essentially zero profit margins, yet a month-long hospital stay is a recipe for bankruptcy, while common drugs cost an arm and a leg.

      --
      Something bad is coming when people are suddenly anxious to tell the truth.
  40. Trade Deficit: So What by TonyXL · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Would you rather the US have:
    a) Jobs where things like iPods and iPhones are conceived from ingenuity, designed, and perfected (ie, the way things are now) OR
    b) Jobs where things like iPods and iPhones are assembled

    The fact that our economy and employment are pretty strong proves that the trade deficit is meaningless.

    1. Re:Trade Deficit: So What by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's quite artificial, and why americans are madly trying to get the rest of the world to buy into "intellectual property" crap. China has A BILLION PEOPLE. They already out-innovate america - what americans call "pirated" electronic gear in the chinese market because they violate some trivial american patent are often BETTER than anything you can get in america when you look at all the features. Civilian america is now a real technological backwater compared to europe or urban asia. You're living in a dream world. The only reason the world still takes america seriously is the large and well-equipped military - basically, you're trying to be a swarm of red ants. That's not sustainable. Europe, Russia, India and China will only put up with your shit for so long, and you don't need a classically large military to engineer a bioweapon.

    2. Re:Trade Deficit: So What by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Europe, Russia, India and China will only put up with your shit for so long, and you don't need a classically large military to engineer a bioweapon.

      The problem with your theory is that at least two and possibly three of the four entities you mention won't even exist 50 years from now.

      Europe: has a less than replacement birth rate and an increasing muslim population due to both immigration and high birth rates. The indigenous people will be pushed off the continent.

      Russia: has an even lower birth rate than the rest of europe, and a higher muslim population to boot. Furthermore, they share a 4000 mile border with a country with an insatiable appetite for oil & other natural resources, and a 60 million boy surplus. That means the Chicoms will have a 60 million man army before long. Russia has zero chance to survive. It is too late for them.

      India: shares a border with Pakistan. When Musharif (sp?) is ousted, it will be a matter of who pushes their button first. If it is Pakistan, so long India. It's been real.

    3. Re:Trade Deficit: So What by LindaMack · · Score: 1

      When China decides it wants to use their US dollar savings, aka the trade deficit, the dollar will slide down and/or inflation will rise. However, the Chinese will not want that to happen too fast, as they don't want their savings to become worhtless. So what will most likely happen is that the standard of living in the US will continue to improve slowly, while China catches up, let's say in a couple of decades (wild guess). So, the trade deficit is not meaningless, but its future effects perhaps grossly overstated.

      --
      Why, let's just say I do the dirty work for the other side, no matter what side you're on

    4. Re:Trade Deficit: So What by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm puzzled as to why you think islam is relevant here. It's a _religion_. A muslim european or russian is still a european or russian, and muslims have been a significant part of the population of europe (aside: russia is properly considered part of europe) since the early middle ages. Since soon after the dawn of the religion in question, actually.

      Basically, you've bought the american ruling elite's crazy anti-muslim propaganda (very similar to nazi's anti-jew propaganda when you get right down to it) hook, line and sinker.

    5. Re:Trade Deficit: So What by neuro88 · · Score: 1

      Would you rather the US have:
      a) Jobs where things like iPods and iPhones are conceived from ingenuity, designed, and perfected (ie, the way things are now) OR
      b) Jobs where things like iPods and iPhones are assembled


      These choices aren't mutually exclusive. We aren't sending our manufacturing to China in order to gain the ability to design products.

      So I think I'll go with c.
      c) Jobs where things like iPods are conceived, AND jobs where we manufacture these products.

      Because lets face it, we have people for both positions.

  41. Canada by Valacosa · · Score: 1

    and North America more than 15 percent.
    Nice tactful way to say "Mexico", guys...

    Yup. North America contains the United States and Mexico. We're certainly not forgetting anyone, eh?

    --
    "Live as if you'll die tomorrow." Ridiculous. You could die later today.
    1. Re:Canada by n+dot+l · · Score: 1

      Shh! We're avoiding Anti-US feelings abroad by lying low, remember?!!

  42. Good enough, I guess by cloud99 · · Score: 1

    Quite a simplistic analysis and one that basically ignores US designs being produced overseas as well as US companies with subsidiaries overseas. But apparently relevant enough for political purposes.

  43. Imports are paid for by exports by microbox · · Score: 1

    A deficit implies that currency is moving in one direction much more than the other. In the old days, that meant less "money" in the economy. With floating exchange rates, it means the buying power of the currency is reduced. Thus, running large "deficits" puts downward pressure on the value of the US dollar, which in turn penalizes importing, and *generally* helps exports. If the currency deflats too much, then there will be inflationary problems (penalizing exporters), and there will be no realised economic growth... which puts you in the poor house.

    In the long run, every import has to be paid for by an export. On a local scale, if an economy stops exporting as much as it imports, it ends up like Flint Michigan. That the US hasn't ended up like that already is testimony to the strong domestic economy.

    I'm curious to know what your point is? That the US can't overspend? What's your rational? Did you just think that up, or repeat what someone else told you. If so, what's your source? What theory is it founded on? Deficits are real problems talked about by economists in government, financial and acedemic circles. Are all of these people trying to bamboozle the uninformed?

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    1. Re:Imports are paid for by exports by Anspen · · Score: 1

      In the long run, every import has to be paid for by an export. On a local scale, if an economy stops exporting as much as it imports, it ends up like Flint Michigan. That the US hasn't ended up like that already is testimony to the strong domestic economy.
      No, it's a testimony to two things: the fact that the currency exchange with most east Asian currencies isn't free floating (the Yuan isn't allowed to fall) and the fact that most resources are denominated in dollars (which makes it much more likely that for example Saudi Arabia reinvests in the US). If these two things weren't true the dollar would have slid far more against other currencies which would have created inflation (gasoline at 7$/gallon anyone?) and resolved the deficit that way. The good economy has helped at times (there was a lot of real investment in the US in the 90's) but these days the real investment pale in comparison to the currency manipulations (which is mostly in treasury bonds)
  44. News? by CopaceticOpus · · Score: 1

    How is this a news item? "The U.S. trade deficit, which has been enormous for the past several years, once again failed to magically disappear for no reason." In other news, crime, cancer, and car accidents are also failing to suddenly blip out of existence.

  45. Re:Suffering? Not hardly! by Znork · · Score: 1

    "As another pointed out, we get to trade dollars"

    The trouble is, you're borrowing the dollars which you then trade.

    "when everyone else decides they have enough of our dollars."

    When everyone else decides they want their money back because the US, its banks and its citizens start defaulting on their loans you mean. The last weeks trouble at several European banks is a typical example; US banks have sold mortgage backed loans to European banks, which finances American consumption and trade deficit.

    Sure, you can try 'printing' the money to repay the foreign debt. I think Germany tried that once upon a time, maybe you could take a look at how well that worked out?

  46. Root cause by narsiman · · Score: 1

    Nothing that the US or UK or China could do to make this 'problem' go away and still retain their fiat currencies. The G8 nations have to move to a Gold standard (100% backed by gold). That way the money is backed by something tangible and limited in quantity and accrued only by plundering not by a printing press.
      There you go - now you have the origins of Peace on earth - when we decimated gold and introduced the money printing press, we obviated the need to plunder another nation, so long as we allowed the US to "benevolently" plunder everyone thru inflation. Both Nixon and GWB2 said FU to benevolence and we have a monetary crisis.
      The federal reserve can do all it wants but the only solution is to eliminate it.

    Guys - Vote for Ron Paul. He is the only candidate who undestands these issues (Colbert report jokes apart) and is willing to do something about it.

    1. Re:Root cause by notamisfit · · Score: 1

      The G8 nations won't go for a gold standard, for the simple reason that it's impossible to run a welfare state without going into debt up to your eyeballs. And welfare statism will not go away as long as people believe they have a right to require others to live their life for them. Plunder really isn't a necessary part of the equation; more gold was produced in the last century by peaceful, voluntary trade than was ever lifted by the conquistadors and their ilk (unless you're one of the nutjobs who shouts "exploitation" at every instance of peaceful trade).

      Paul's probably not the worst choice for president, he gets at least part of the issue, but like most libertarians, he can't integrate them into any sort of meaningful principle.

      --
      Jesus is coming -- look busy!
    2. Re:Root cause by thelexx · · Score: 1

      I like gold, and I like Ron Paul. FWIW, having tried and mostly failed to sway anyone I know into physically owning any bullion for any reason, I think it's counter-productive to mention gold or the relative merits of backed vs fiat currency to people when trying to interest them in RP as a candidate. People have been so conditioned that gold is useless and worthless to them that some are even convinced that we are somehow stunting industrial usage of it by private ownership These otherwise sane people would likely vote to have our government re-implement a confiscation policy. The gold ETF activity the last week or so though shows the smart money knows where safety is. Well, some consider them smart. Panicky whiners are likely terms that would be used by others. We shall see, but I know which side world history is on in the long run.

      --
      "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world." - Alan Greenspan, 1999
    3. Re:Root cause by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      The real problem is that politicians like to spend money they don't have. Throughout human history, the leaders have never ever been able to remain within budget. And they're the ones who'd have to vote for a monetary system which essentially prevents them from taking the country into debt.

      I'm not sure gold is necessary or desirable. It has inherent deflationary properties when used as a currency which cause all sorts of problems. Human beings don't like to appear to lose money, even if the resulting money is actually more valuable.

      An ideal currency would neither inflate nor deflate and would somehow be independent of the politicians.

      --
      Deleted
  47. Trivial to do by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    once we no longer have the ability to pay. We have done a fine job of looking and thinking VERY short term. Far too many even on /. that think in terms of sending jobs elsewhere due to costs, with no real knowledge about teh true costs involved (ask mattel; no only are they now going to have to start doing real QA, but even the chinese gov is pushing to double the price of nearly everything).

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  48. Imbalance of trade excludes cash by davidwr · · Score: 1

    The "trade deficit" or "balance of trade" counts the value of actual goods and actual services exchanged. It does not include the offsetting value of cash or whatever is being used as a medium of exchange.

    Thus if I sell you $500 in widgets and buy $400 in widget-drivers, I have a trade surplus of $100 with you, and you have a $100 trade deficit.

    Another way of looking at it is that you export $100 cash to me than I export to you.

    At the end if the day, if all the goods and services traded were to suddenly become worthless, I'd be $100 ahead of the game.

    Of course, if the currency became worthless, well, that's another topic for another day.

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
    1. Re:Imbalance of trade excludes cash by monxrtr · · Score: 1

      In your scenario widgets + $100 is more valuable to person B, and Widget-drivers - $100 is more valuable to person A. Both profit from the transaction. There is no monetary "deficit", there is no wealth "deficit": the exact same things which existed before the trade exist after the trade. They merely have been transferred from one party to another party, and both parties are "ahead of the game". That's because trade generates net society wealth in absolutely every instance of transaction.

      Of course, if the currency becomes worthless, or the widgets become worthless, or the widget drivers become worthless, that is a CHANGE IN SUBJECTIVE VALUATION, and has absolutely nothing to do with trade or the NONEXISTENT "trade deficit".

      If Kid A trades two bananas to Kid B for 1 apple, Kid A does not incur a 1 banana "trade deficit" nor Kid B incur a 1 banana "trade surplus". The same amount of fruit exists after the trade as existed before the trade. The fruit has just been voluntarily re situated to a net societal wealth increasing voluntary distribution. Absolutely every example of trade will just be a variant of the most basic example. And it only occurs because that which is received is valued more than that which is given away.

      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
  49. What you're describing by ShatteredArm · · Score: 1

    That's not a problem with the trade deficit. You can have a trade deficit without having borrowed a single dime. Likewise, you can spend irresponsibly without having incurred any trade deficit. If you're defaulting on your loans, it's not because you spent too much on imports, it is that you spent too much. There is no "foreign debt" at all. A trade deficit does not imply debt of any kind, it is nothing more than a purchase. You do not borrow anything when you purchase foreign goods in exchange for cash. There is no agreement to pay anything back later.

    1. Re:What you're describing by n+dot+l · · Score: 1

      You do not borrow anything when you purchase foreign goods in exchange for cash. There is no agreement to pay anything back later. Right. Similarly there is no agreement that the foreigner has to keep taking your dollars in exchange for their tangible goods. They take the dollars now because they're hoping that the trade deficit will reverse itself in the future and they'll be able to spend those dollars on tangible goods of their own. But if the trend continues long enough that confidence will fade. And they won't wait forever, either - inflation is eating away at the value of those dollars they can't spend right away, it's not like they'll sit around until the billions you gave them in exchange for boat loads of goods won't buy so much as a stick of gum.

      What happens to the US when oil producers decide they aren't interested in your dollars any more? I mean, sure, you could threaten them with war but that might seem a bit imperialistic (that nasty word just won't go away, will it?) and they might band together against you. How, exactly, do you propose to fight Russia, China, and the middle east all at once? Who will ally with you? Europe buys most of its oil from the Russians...
    2. Re:What you're describing by ShatteredArm · · Score: 1

      The US has oil reserves for that very reason. The way I see it, there are two extremes: (a) Use our resources up now so we don't have to build up a trade deficit. (b) Incur a trade deficit, and maybe if our currency gets devalued, we begin using up our own resources. It would seem wisest to produce what we can, but there's no reason to do that if it costs more. There are two major factors that encourage our trade deficit, and they are (a) people not willing to work for "market value" (well, not even being able to work for market values, what with minimum wage laws...), and (b) high costs of government on businesses. Maybe you're right that at some point our money won't be worth as much and it will become cheaper to produce stuff here, but I don't see any reason for us force ourselves to suffer now to avoid the possibility of the same suffering later.

  50. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 0, Troll

    On this issue, you'd be better of not trying to fix it at the ballot box- and fix it at the cash register instead by refusing to buy foreign-made goods. If enough US consumers did that, the trade imbalance would be fixed.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  51. Imminent decline by amightywind · · Score: 1, Insightful

    When a country exports all of it's facilities, manufacturing, and infastructure overseas, how long before that countries trading partners realize that they can cut the country out of the loop entirely?

    When you learn of such a country please tell us about it. The U.S. runs a large trade deficit because developing economies tend to be net exporters and lift the U.S. standard of living by providing cheap goods. It also runs a deficit because many nations (Japan, China, some Euro countries) have a strong demand for safe U.S. treasuries and seek to protect their own export industries. The huge U.S. consumer economy is still a unique market in the world. Low U.S. inflation since the Reagan era has made these a particularly good deal for both parties. Higher inflation or a weaker dollar will likely end the practice as export profits look for better opportunities. The U.S. is an intensely competitive economy. It isn't perfect, but I laugh at you naysayers who predict its imminent decline. During the Bush administration the U.S. economic growth has exceeded the entire size of the Chinese economy. Judge the U.S. by how badly foreigners want to get in here. A few weeks ago they pulled some Chinese guy from the landing gear well of a 747, freeze dried. Too bad, we could use people with guts like that.

    --
    an ill wind that blows no good
    1. Re:Imminent decline by LindaMack · · Score: 1

      You are correct that China and others are unlikely to want to damage the US economy. That said, they're also likely to want to cash in on some of their surplus. This will probably mean lower dollar as there will be more dollars in traffic with nothing new behind it (money already spent, aka the trade deficit). But it's likely to happen slowly so I don't see any catastrophe happening because of that. Only that the standard of living in China and US gets more and more on equal terms, but that will take a long time - at least if history is anything to judge from.
      To add to the uncertainty of the US economy sliding downwards, economic effects of things like computers and aviation weren't exactly predictable before these became everyday stuff. I think the same will happen with advances in energy production/consumption.

      --
      Why, let's just say I do the dirty work for the other side, no matter what side you're on

  52. Service Sucks. IP Empire is Doomed. by twitter · · Score: 1

    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Second_Lif e, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Islands or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands. Youll note they all get by very nicely in financial services and tourism.

    Ah, the vaunted service industry. Look up working hours and you will see that people in those industries get worked to death for very low pay, especially in those islands.

    You might have pointed to the equally hyped "information economy" where we supposedly think things up and own the ideas but that too is bullshit. That one flunked because our big dumb companies offshored their research too. Trying to keep other people from doing things with what they invent and know is currently flunking. Trying to back it up with embargo and military force will fail as our economy and technical prowess do.

    Some people have gotten very rich exploiting Chinese slave labor, but they have screwed the rest of us and their children to do it. A nation that does not make things of value to others will soon be poor. A nation that trades with enslaved people is soon enslaved.

    The US still has food as an export, but that depends on petroleum. Unless that dependency is solved, we can be squeezed out of that last apparent advantage.

    --

    Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.

  53. The World is Flat by PineHall · · Score: 1

    I read the book "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman. It describes what has happened in the last 20 years and how many different unavoidable events have converged to "flatten" the world (globalization). We tend to think that India and China have lowered prices on cheap goods. They see things differently. They want to compete with us at the high end. That is their goal and they are racing us to the top. He argues that American creativity can keep America on the top, but Americans need to be better educated and they need to be motivated. (It was a good book.)

    1. Re:The World is Flat by Overzeetop · · Score: 1

      Actually, I think Americans need to realize that there just aren't enough smart, motivated people to be a "superpower." I interact with these bozos every day, and I can tell you that there are a lot of people who really should be making $4/day in a sweatshop becuase - quite honestly - they don't have the intellegence or perseverence to learn how to make $40/hr to operate, program or design a modern industrial machine.

      It's not that we have more stupid people, they (China, India) just have more people from which they can select, and the smart-people fraction is going to be pretty mucht the same. Combine that with the fact getting out of really bad poverty is a motivating factor, whereas in the US we're still riding the mid-20th century wealth base, and slackers don't really reap the results of their sloth.

      I don't think a major economy like the US will have a devastating crash. It may be a bumpy ride, but for all its faults, the US tends to adapt fairly well. That and, let's face it, it's not really in the best interest of anyone for the US or EU to take an economic nosedive. Sure, there are lots of places which poltically masturbate to such thoughts, but when it comes down to it - the world economy is still a closed system, and the failure of one part will cause pain in others.

      --
      Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    2. Re:The World is Flat by notamisfit · · Score: 1

      Not only are we riding the 19th-20th century wealth base, we're actively seeking to undermine it. Both China and India have had up-close-and-personal lessons regarding the failures of command economies, and we're still trying to subvert our economy to government control and "social responsibility".

      --
      Jesus is coming -- look busy!
    3. Re:The World is Flat by b0s0z0ku · · Score: 1
      Both China and India have had up-close-and-personal lessons regarding the failures of command economies, and we're still trying to subvert our economy to government control and "social responsibility".

      We DO need some regulations, though -- do you really want our cities' air to be of the same quality as the average Chinese or Indian large city? If you think that the air is bad in, say, NYC or LA, you've not seen anything until you've gone to say, Datong in China (or even Mexico City). As far as governmental control -- are you talking about health care? Socialized medicine would assume a burden currently carried by employers AND cause employees to nor be tied to their employers any longer for health care (thus making them more likely to go off, start their own businesses and innovate). Socialized medicine is corporate welfare in the most positive sense of the term.

      -b.

    4. Re:The World is Flat by notamisfit · · Score: 1

      What regulations are necessary for clean air? If dirty air caused by a corporation causes tangible harm, get their director's asses in a courtroom and find them civilly or criminally liable for negligence. All without a bunch of taxpayer-paid hacks running around enforcing myriad bits of alphabet-soup legislation. As for socialized medicine, I oppose it on moral grounds (I have no right to a hospital's goods or a doctor's services unpaid simply by the result of government fiat), but practically, employers and employees alike will end up paying out the ass for it.

      --
      Jesus is coming -- look busy!
    5. Re:The World is Flat by Overzeetop · · Score: 1

      So you think large, questionable class action suits which help nobody but the plaintiff's council are good ways to get clean air and water? Yikes.

      As for socialized medicine, the most common reason to oppose it is that many in the upper-middle class do not want to get worse care for free than they get in the current employer-paid plan, and they want to be able to pay more for service of their chosing. Okay, that last part is bullshit - they want to get the service of their choosing paid for by their current (employer paid) plan. Doctors services would still be paid under a universal healthcare plan, they would be paid for by higher taxes. It's like buying into a group plan with 300 million participants - great if you're young and in perfect health, not as economally beneficial otherwise. The problem is that we (as a nation) can't afford good healthcare we are accustomed to for everyone. The government is the best example of the costs of a large group policy - their basic package is very good, but costs about $12,000 a year on the family plan. I once advocated not going with a universal plan, but instead allowing everyone in the US to purchase an individual plan at the gov't rate (i.e.- requiring healthcare insurers to offer the gov't plan for the gov't rate to any citizen). It was a good idea when you consider a fed employee pays only $3000 for those benefits (25%), but at the full rate, it would take more than a full time FMW salary to pay the premiums in such a plan. Not so hot. And if you tried to shoehorn 80-90 million families into that you end up with a trillion dollar pricetag. So you need not worry about your doctor's not getting paid, but you might fear your tax bill!

      --
      Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  54. No, actually, it doesn't say that, you didn't RTFA by SIIHP · · Score: 1

    "TFA is saying that in the electronics sector, we are buying more than we are selling."

    That's wrong. From TFA

    "in 2006, the United States continued to export considerably more than it imported in two technology areas: aerospace and electronics."

    The article uses the term "technology" without defining it, but it also clearly states that we are running a trade surplus in electronics.

    --
    I only go to buffets for the unlimited soft serve.
  55. Re:Correction Requested by aldousd666 · · Score: 2, Informative

    you're an idiot. If we only bought american goods, then we'd inflate our local prices, and foreign companies would kick the crap out of us abroad, and we wouldn't have anyone able to compete. Then instead of losing SOME money to them, we'd have whole companies go out of business. You weren't paying attention in economics class where you. It might sound nice to say 'buy american' but if we really did that, and boycott foreign stuff, you'd drive the price on american shit up so much there would be no way in hell anyone but americans would buy american, and foreign business is what keeps a LOT of companies afloat.

    --
    Speak for yourself.
  56. the August 15, 1971 "Nixon Shock" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    In case anyone's wondering what he's talking about...

  57. Nice Pipe Dream by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But come on, universities dropping their cash cows on the whim of a single D-senator? Yeah, right, and Bush is going to bring the troops home from Iraq, legalize pot and gay marriage, and give us all free health care.

    A big chunk of banking and government revenue is in the form of Student Loans. Diplomas are little more than job coupons. Half of the system depends on young people spending their way into life-long debt, for fear of slipping into a lower class. Do away with it and make free college for everybody? Wake up.

  58. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    If we only bought american goods, then we'd inflate our local prices,

    Thus increasing the wages of American Workers, which would in turn allow us to afford those higher local prices, and encourage production of goods here at home to keep us safe from foreign wars and governments.

    and foreign companies would kick the crap out of us abroad,

    Only if you're stupid enough to tie your business to a foreign market instead of creating goods for your own nation's people ONLY. We've got 300 million people who, to maintain their standard of living, need the same amount of goods as 1.2 billion third worlders. What kind of loser needs to sell to the third worlders with a market like that here at home?

    and we wouldn't have anyone able to compete.

    This makes no sense. Why compete for small third world markets when cooperation to use the larger first world market can bring larger rewards?

    Then instead of losing SOME money to them, we'd have whole companies go out of business.

    Only the non-patriotic treasonous ones- which should go out of business anyway.

    You weren't paying attention in economics class where you. It might sound nice to say 'buy american' but if we really did that, and boycott foreign stuff, you'd drive the price on american shit up so much there would be no way in hell anyone but americans would buy american, and foreign business is what keeps a LOT of companies afloat.

    Those companies, I call them free traitors, deserve to go out of business if they're too stupid to be able to stay in business with this big of a market. And yes- we're at the point where we've got such an incredibly high standard of living in comparison to everybody else that we either need to produce it all ourselves for ourselves while waiting for the rest of the world to catch up, or we need to go through a depression to reduce our standard of living. A BUY AMERICAN campaign will achieve both.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  59. Re:Correction Requested by aldousd666 · · Score: 1

    Hah, so american companies have enough to produce stuff locally and virtually be no further off because we'll spiral into an endless cycle of local inflation, but we'll be able to afford it (thus staying the same in your perfect model.) Should we just forbid people from traveling too? How about shut off the internet? There isn't, never was, and never will be a benefit to buying only american. You don't have to agree with me, the market will back me up on this one.

    --
    Speak for yourself.
  60. Re:Correction Requested by spun · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It might sound nice to say 'buy american' but if we really did that, and boycott foreign stuff, you'd drive the price on american shit up so much there would be no way in hell anyone but americans would buy american, You were the one not paying attention in economics class. If the price on American goods goes up, more American companies will enter the market to create those goods, bringing the price back down.
    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  61. Government bonds are to blame. by rleibman · · Score: 2, Informative

    And with what money shall the US consume if it does not manufacture anything to sell for profit? Technology was the last real growth manufacturing field. Without turning one thing into another, to sell for profit, there is no more real consumption as rather than generating money, you are just recycling money. And then, when you buy foreign made goods, that recycled money leaves the country, leaving you with less to purchase with. It is an entropic cycle, and will eventually fail.

    When that money leaves the country it leaves in Dollars, other countries may trade that currency, but eventually they are still U.S. dollars and have to come back into the U.S. The majority of these end up buying treasury bonds. China is now the biggest holder of treasury bonds. They own our asses... and our children's.

    The solution (or at least part of the solution) is a very libertarian one: stop the growth of government, stop the congressional borrow and spend cycle, stop printing money and bonds. Bonds are a tax on the future.

    Our trading partners buy bonds because they have dollars they've gotten from the stuff we've bought from them. They are a fairly safe investment and gives them a good return. If bonds were not so easily available they'd HAVE to spend that money in real investments in the U.S. The money that is now going to fund the growth of government would instead go to fund investment and economic growth

    Trade imbalances aren't bad on their own, it all depends on what you do with the imbalance, if you use it to fuel Government they are terrible (look at the Latin American Economies of the 80's and what they did with the inflow of foreign currency in the form of loans, same effect). Use them to fund growth and trade imbalances are not a problem.

    Basic Macroeconomics, cxu ne?

    1. Re:Government bonds are to blame. by mgblst · · Score: 1

      When that money leaves the country it leaves in Dollars, other countries may trade that currency, but eventually they are still U.S. dollars and have to come back into the U.S. The majority of these end up buying treasury bonds.


      They can also spend that money on things like property, and companies - so they end up owning more and more parts of the US. This is scary for a lot of people.
  62. What are you talking about? by spun · · Score: 1
    Let's dissect this piece of illogic.

    U.S. dollars only have value because they can be spent on U.S. goods. So, they can't be spent on other country's goods? No, because:

    When the U.S. has a 'trade deficit', it means that those foreign countries are sitting on those dollars we send them Okay, so our dollars can be spent on other country's goods, too.

    Eventually, they will spend those dollars on U.S. goods, as that is the only thing they are good for Wait, what? Now we can't buy foreign goods with our dollars? But didn't you just say we are sending them our dollars? Maybe you mean only we can buy goods with our dollars, but other countries who have our dollars have to use them to buy our goods and no one else's. Huh?

    I don't think you have any idea how international trade actually works.
    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    1. Re:What are you talking about? by RexRhino · · Score: 4, Informative

      Okay, so our dollars can be spent on other country's goods, too. No, I didn't say that, you just made that up completly off the top of your head. U.S. dollars are the official currency of the U.S., and are only good for trading for U.S. goods (or trading the currency with other people who want to purchase U.S. goods).

      Now we can't buy foreign goods with our dollars? But didn't you just say we are sending them our dollars? We purchase their goods with U.S. dollars, which goes into an account at a U.S. bank, which they can then spend on U.S. goods... or trade that currency for other currencies in countries where they want to purchase something.

      But they can't use that U.S. currency to purchase things in France, or to purchase things in the UK, or to purchase things in Japan, unless they find a bank that will be willing to trade them a corresponding amount of those currencies... and to do that, there have to be people in France, or the UK, or Japan, who want to buy U.S. goods and so are willing to trade their own currency for U.S. dollars.

      There is no gold standard... The dollar isn't backed by any commodity. The only value that the U.S. dollar has is that it can be used to purchase U.S. goods. For every dollar the U.S. spends on foreign goods, those foreign traders need to spend a dollar on U.S. goods (or on U.S. stocks or bonds or property).

      I don't think you have any idea how international trade actually works. This from someone who thinks the U.S. is still on the gold standard and wants to emulate the trade policies of Cuba.
    2. Re:What are you talking about? by expatriot · · Score: 1

      >> For every dollar the U.S. spends on foreign goods, those foreign traders need to spend a dollar on U.S. goods
      >> (or on U.S. stocks or bonds or property).

      So America buys toys and cameras and they buy American companies. What could possibly go wrong?
      Maybe America doesn't control outsourcing, own the IP,copyrights, and patents, and valuable skills and knowledge are transferred away.
      At least America gets the cheap cameras and a lifetime of debt to pay off. Worth it to some.

    3. Re:What are you talking about? by theophilosophilus · · Score: 1

      Just a few of points.

      A dollar is a promise for future goods or services, it has to "boomerang" back to the US because unless those future goods and services are redeemed the dollar is just paper.

      Comparing rates in exports of consumer goods to imports of consumer goods is disingenuous. Consumers without money will never have need of consumer goods. Consumers without jobs will never have money.

      Trade is, by definition, an exchange. Therefore the phrase "trade deficit" is an oxymoron, you can't get more than you receive. Presumably, those that enter into a trade do so because they get a "good deal." In trade, both side obtain something that they desire. Otherwise, they wouldn't enter into the deal. However, the parent is correct in the sense that any economic transaction can be a bad decision. Selling a company involves the risk that the buyer will be a poor steward. However, that risk exists regardless of where the owners are based. Economic incentives encourage good management but a foreign owner may not be as inclined to favor American workers (the fact is management that favors American workers is a dieing breed).

      The people at Slashdot could care less whether all IP was released (information wants to be free).

      Outsourcing occurs as long as there is another country that does equivalent work for cheaper, thats competition. Competition can be accomplished on two levels quality or cost. Outsourcing will occur until American workers can improve quality or wages equalize. Wages will equalize when the supply of qualified workers begins to under pace the demand.

      A rise in wages brings with it a rise in demand for goods and services. A rise in demand for goods and services will first limit exports and will next increase imports. More imports means more American Jobs. Wages have already begun to rise significantly for skilled workers in countries like India and China.

      Cheap cameras are not all that we receive from free trade. Competition from free trade has lowered prices for everything ranging from cars to medical equipment. Further, even in markets where we have a surplus, like grain production, costs are lowered by affordable equipment. For example, before the Japanese invasion, it was difficult to afford things like cars and televisions etc. Today even a major portion of those under the Federal poverty line own a television and a car (compare quality of life to the pre global trade 1950s). The salary of a fry cook today goes farther than that of an engineer in the years before global trade was opened.

      --
      Why have 1 person driving a backhoe when you could employ 20 with shovels?
  63. Re:Correction Requested by aldousd666 · · Score: 1

    actually no, that doesn't happen. If that were the case then eventually everyone becomes a jack of all trades, we will lose specialization, and you cannot maintain quality with people producing everything locally. Besides resources are not unlimited locally either, there are some places that just have better raw materials, and all sorts of other things, like a more ready supply of workers. You might be right about 1 or 2 companies diving it to take advantage of the market, but it won't go so far as to actually make anyone competitive. They will still be a local oligopoly and will have near zero incentive to even respond to consumer demands, especially in necessity goods. Competition, particularly international competition is the quickest and most efficient way to drive prices down and standard of living up. Yes some people lose, but overall, the system is solvent indefinitely. The industries involved may fluctuate, nobody makes horse buggy's anymore, for example, but that's the way life is. You can't continuously have the government exhert more and more control, by passing more and more laws, more and more regulations, for one because it encourages a black market, and two, because it's just not enforcible unless you want to start giving those out of a job factory workers new jobs as 'trade police.'

    --
    Speak for yourself.
  64. There are a lot of things the US can do by backslashdot · · Score: 1

    If someone is providing a service or item that people want, you shouldn't stand in the way of their transaction. After all, if you are replaced by robots would you still be indignant? The world is manufacturing crap for the US. The US should make things to exchange. Do you think the world wants to collect pieces of paper?? If they want to earn all this money, they are doing it because they too require services.

    Instead of being pissed that others are making goods that people want to buy, there are plenty of things America can do to maintain its lead. People get paid for providing a useful service cheaper than others. If a service can be gotten for cheaper elsewhere, then a person should have the right to get it from elsewhere .. just like they have the right to refuse the service entirely.

    Anyway, there are still things you can do to earn money:

    1) Invent cures for diseases and slow down aging so that the life expectancy can be 120

    2) Develop cheaper sources of energy that can be used to purify and distribute water to people who need it

    3) Find out how to reduce crime to Japan's level, and then to one quarter of that. Then provide consulting to other countries.

    4) Assist in building global infrastructure .. this can be in the form of fabricating things in the US and shipping them elsewhere. This is already done for airplanes etc. Most of the world is severely undeveloped and needs infrastructure. As long as people have a need for roads, sewers, and houses ..this need is there.

    There are simply not enough workers in the world to build all everything people need, so there will always be jobs .. until people have self contained in-home energy generators that manufactures happy pills and food from raw minerals. But at that point there would be no _need_ for jobs.

  65. moron by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You are a buffoon and a non student of history. The US is HUGE. We have 50 states, a large enough "common market" so that back when we DID "make it in america", we had the fastest growing, largest middle class in the world, WITH savings, not debt. Stop equating debt with assets, they are NOT the same thing! The only thing this globalization has done is put everyone in the US at the mercy of the top 1% wall street pirates. We now have a larger wealth disparity between rich and poor than during the great depression, the largest public and private debt, the largest balance of payments deficit. And all of this can be traced back to 25 years ago when the big globalization lie was pushed.

    Sure they teach "globalization=good" in business schools,because that's who business schools cater to, the next generation of PIRATES and wealth looters, the wall street conmen! And it is good-for the already rich guys. It makes billionaires out of multi millionaires, and debtors out of everyone else. And their toadies at the stupid Fed overly inflate the economy, FORCING people to support wall street because you can't even think about saving money any other way, because they run the numbers higher than the cost of living increases! It's a goddamn SCAM!

  66. bailing out the rich guys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Look at this headline. Bailing out the rich guys. If the economy was doing good and the rich globalists were to be trusted this wouldn't be needed. This is desperation before a general collapse. Anyone who keeps believing those people is gonna lose, bigtime. There's a word the big casino owners have for folks like that, it's called "suckers".

    Trying to run a fiat currency scam economy has been tried going way back in history, they ALWAYS collapse, every single time, it is inevitable. You can't printing press your way to prosperity! You CANNOT do it! it will collapse inevitably. Once your economy is based on just keeping the rich guys rich and you steal from the wealth producers-it collapses. Overly inflating the money supply is THEFT from the producers. Kings have tried it, other nations, other central banks. You have to base your money on actual wealth production and that's it, nothing more, all this other paper financial products gambling action is just wealth skimming. It's busting now. It is going to get really, really bad as well, because it's just starting to collapse and they are in panic mode. Once the huge flight away from the dollar gets going in earnest, it will make the first great depression and the one in the 80s look like a picnic.

    1. Re:bailing out the rich guys by aldousd666 · · Score: 1

      when the feds "inject money into the economy," that doesn't mean they 'print money for them to use' they in fact loan them money from the federal reserve at a lower rate. Of course, who wouldn't take that loan at a low rate? printing press indeed. You know, I'll bet that just about less than 10% of the folks you meet on the street even know how the economy actually is working. I'll bet that less than 20% know when you put money in a bank they lend it out to someone else. From what I've seen people saying here, it's pretty evident that a lot of people really have no idea, even those who are in the tech sector and rely on this system heavily to work... I'm amazed.

      --
      Speak for yourself.
    2. Re:bailing out the rich guys by tibike77 · · Score: 1

      Quoth the parent, "I'll bet that less than 20% know when you put money in a bank they lend it out to someone else."

      And apparently, YOU don't know that when you put money in the bank, they don't actually lend it to anybody, they ALREADY LENT IT way in advance, and multiple times.
      Here's how it works. A bank has, say 10 mil USD deposited with the central bank and somesuch first.
      They can now LOAN OUT at least 90 mil USD to people. Yes, they can loan out 80 mil USD they DON'T HAVE, and nobody wonders if that's wrong or not.
      Whenever you deposit money at a bank, they get to loan out up to 9 times more money to other people. Again, money that doesn't exist. But nobody's questioning that.
      If you ask "but how can this work", it's because not everybody comes in to cash out at the same time, and that people generally pay back way more as they borrowed first.

      Basically, the whole banking system is a huge circular "I.O.U." system that's ever-expanding. Nothing more, nothing less.

      --
      By reading this signature you agree to not disagree with the post you just read.
    3. Re:bailing out the rich guys by aldousd666 · · Score: 1

      actually I do know that. But I didn't say I'd explain the entire macro model of capitalism in one post, I was just citing the fact that folks dream of banks as high security shoeboxes where they put their money, and for some reason get interest for it.

      --
      Speak for yourself.
  67. All trades are inherently fair by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    You can trade goods for goods, songs for songs, but when you trade materials for IOUs, I don't think that that's an inherently fair exchange. But the trade is made without duress. Individuals value different things differently. Someone may value an interest paying IOU (bond) as worth more than 100 playstations, so they trade you the hardware and take a debt in exchange.

    --
    Deleted
  68. This is quite obvious! by sudden.zero · · Score: 1

    Any idiot can see that the U.S. Economy is slowly failing. The reason for this is a combination of several things but the three major contributing factors are:

    1. Big corporations outsourcing all or most manual labor jobs overseas to make there production cheaper.
    2. With most of our manual labor jobs outsourced our economy is forced to rely on intangible things such as software. These intangible things we are depending so heavily on for our exports may be protected under US law but as we can see by what is going on in the WTO right now (See the article on slashdot about the US loosing its cases with WTO) they can not be protected once they leave the country. This puts the US in quite a predicament.
    3. The mass import of products from countries in Asia by retailers(The leader of which is Walmart ^^) due to the products being cheaper than American equivalents (If there even is such a thing anymore. See 1 for the reason there is a lack of American equivalents in most cases.)

    Not to mention the similarities between what is going on right now in the US and the many other fallen empires! In other words hold on to your hats ladies and gentlemen we are in for a bumpy ride!

  69. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 0, Troll

    Hah, so american companies have enough to produce stuff locally and virtually be no further off because we'll spiral into an endless cycle of local inflation,

    Well, there's a solution to that too- kill off the FED and stop producing fiat currency. The inflation will come down as the money supply tightens up (supply and demand, after all).

    but we'll be able to afford it (thus staying the same in your perfect model.)

    Yeah, unless of course we get smart and go back to the gold standard and stop allowing the government to print money.

    Should we just forbid people from traveling too?

    This is the information age, who needs to travel? Everything you can ever learn is right at your fingertips. Any experience you could ever want is available in the United States already, within 3000 miles of home, so who the hell needs to travel? Travel is just a waste of resources.

    How about shut off the internet?

    Rather, cut it off at the border- we created it, it's ours, why should we let somebody in China access it? Let them build their own.

    There isn't, never was, and never will be a benefit to buying only american.

    Except of course, NATIONAL SECURITY- but I guess you don't give a shit about that, being a traitor and all. Trade and other forms of foreign entanglement ties your economy to other economies, which allows dictators that the American people didn't elect to draw us into wars we don't want anything to do with. Like Iraq, for instance- there's no need for us to be in the Middle East at all- we have the ability to be entirely self-sufficient here, but because we choose to use cheap oil for our energy, we have to fight. If we had built our infrastructure based entirely on native materials, we wouldn't need to be messing around in the Middle East right now.

    You don't have to agree with me, the market will back me up on this one.

    The "market" is not loyal to America, and never has been, so is an insufficient predictor of what we need for national security at this point in history. In fact, the sheer chaos and greed of the so-called "free" market is a SEVERE danger to our health and well being as Americans.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  70. Straw man! by Gazzonyx · · Score: 1

    "it took two Republican presidents: Nixon and Ford, to clean up the decades-old mess started and maintained by the democrats."

    You talk as if Nixon resigned because from the exhaustion of cleaning up the Democrat's mess. I call straw man on that! If you're going to refute a claim, attack the proposed claim. Attacking a persons character (even if he was a liar) is a desperate move for politicians and has no place in academic discussion. Try again, and refute the claim with facts or admit it is legitimate.
    --

    If I mod you up, it doesn't necessarily mean I agree with what you've said, sorry.

    1. Re:Straw man! by doconnor · · Score: 1

      I wasn't trying to refute his claim, I was trying to point out the irony that he seems to be boasting that it took two Republican presidents to clean up the mess, when the only reason there where two Republican presidents during that period was because of the Republican's own huge mess.

  71. A Trade Deficit is just a Capital Surplus. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My country buys 10 billion [currency] worth of widgets from your country
    Your country buys 5 billion [currency] worth of widgets from mine
    My country has a trade deficit of 5 billion [currency] in the widget sector.

    It's imports vs exports.
    When imports do not = exports, you have an imbalance.

    For your nonsensical post to be correct, we would have to be buying and selling widgets in equal quantities. Hint: we aren't.

    I really can't understand how anyone moderated you up.
    This stuff isn't that hard.


    Then what's your excuse for flunking it?

    For one thing, your "widget" example relies on the unstated assumption that it's the same widgets being traded. It isn't.

    Second, we are only able to buy more things from overseas because we have the currency to do so -- in other words, a "trade deficit" is the mirror image of a capital surplus. It's a reflection of the fact that nations are different, and does not represent a problem any more than the same "imbalances" between US states or US cities, or even between you and the local grocery, are "problems". It's a function of where the lines (borders) are drawn , no more.

    Unless you're a screwball leftist who equates trade with theft, it ought to be clear that all trades involve *different* things moving in opposite directions.

    Destination USA
    American's Record Capital Surplus
    Isn't the Capital Surplus a Good Thing?

  72. Muahahahahah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Free Tuition for Math, Science, and Engineering?" Who would need this? I actually have a PhD in engineering and worked in one of the most prestigious US labs, was always one of the best students and have good publications, incl. patents. Guess what? I had to look three years for a job and do all kinds of odd jobs to survive. Now I will finally start a "real job", highly underpaid. After I will have paid off my CC debt (did I mention I had not a real job for three years?) and after I will have saved some bucks I will move to Japan or China. Either to work there or to start up my own thing. I mean seriously, who would recommend studying science or technology? Roughly 10% of PhD students make the transition into academics. The rest is screwed. Taking into account the costs of your education, cost of living in the US and opportunity costs you should at least make something around 100k (not a big salary in silicon valley or NYC, a house is about 1.5 million). I promise you that you will hardly be able to cash this in. Fro 100k you can hire 10 PhD educated scientist abroad and nothing is easier outsourced than R&D work. AFAIK a NYC police officer makes 60-100k after 5 years in service. Hence think twice about career choices. Dude, my advice to you: If someone mentions science and technology: Run as fast as you can!

  73. Four Letters: D.M.C.A by plasmacutter · · Score: 1

    The DMCA is the last remnant of the Dot-Bomb era where people thought you'd be able to sell bits for profit.

    The real information age isn't about selling information, it's about selling real goods with greater efficiency thanks to tech tools.

    The US can't generate those tech tools when the DMCA puts every tech firm under hollywood's technophobic thumb.

    I have at least 5 perfectly market viable (KILLER) ideas waiting to create entirely new leagues, but as it stands they'll be picked off in the starting gates by the DMCA if I so much as TRY to get VC for them.

    Want to stop the tech trade deficit? KILL THE DMCA ALREADY.

    --
    VLC FOR MAC IS DYING! IF YOU DEVELOP, PLEASE SAVE IT!!
    1. Re:Four Letters: D.M.C.A by xeromist · · Score: 1

      This was my first thought. The article blames the deficit on a growing Asian powerhouse but who's to say we wouldn't also have grown without inept legislation stunting growth. I found this passage interesting(if inconclusive):

      "By 1999, rising imports of life science technologies produced a trade deficit in a third technology area. After 2000, U.S. imports exceeded exports in five of the 11 technology areas."

      The DMCA was passed in 1998.

      --
      This sig is exactly seventy characters long and a real waste of space!
  74. Wanna learn something about History AND economy? by yooy · · Score: 1

    Wanna learn something about History AND economy? http://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-Great-Powers/dp/06 79720197 The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (Paperback) by Paul Kennedy (Author)

  75. Re:Correction Requested by Teun · · Score: 1

    What makes you think America has it's main export markets in the Third World?
    The USofA (and the EU!) cannot (and should not) compete with the low-tech high-volume products China and their likes sells us, instead it should concentrate on it's strengths and that's high-tech like aircraft, machinery and certain electronics.

    Of course the sceptics will claim the biggest foreign market for the US is war, but personally I think the world doesn't have much appetite for that industry right now...

    --
    "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
  76. Re:Correction Requested by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    > Why compete for small third world markets when cooperation to use the larger first world market can bring larger rewards?

    You're content to sell to a market of 300M Americans, from a labor force of 300M Americans. I'd like to expand that customer base by a factor of four, and in order to do that, I may have to increase the size of my labor pool by a similar factor. Unlike you Marxists, we capitalists will do anything for a buck. Even if it means bringing 1.2 billion third-worlders up to Western standards of living. Sorry if that offends you :)

  77. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    What makes you think America has it's main export markets in the Third World?

    Doesn't matter where the exports are going to- exports are a waste of resources we could be using right here in America.

    The USofA (and the EU!) cannot (and should not) compete with the low-tech high-volume products China and their likes sells us, instead it should concentrate on it's strengths and that's high-tech like aircraft, machinery and certain electronics.

    All of which, if you had RTFAd, is now made elsewhere. What's your next argument?

    Of course the sceptics will claim the biggest foreign market for the US is war, but personally I think the world doesn't have much appetite for that industry right now...

    No, that's our biggest reason for importing- protection of our interests costs quite a bit in military materials. Try again.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  78. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    You're content to sell to a market of 300M Americans, from a labor force of 300M Americans.

    Yes. I don't see any reason to go any further- nobody else has enough money for the labor cost we need to live on in America.

    I'd like to expand that customer base by a factor of four, and in order to do that, I may have to increase the size of my labor pool by a similar factor.

    Except you do it without increasing your labor cost, and all you do is encourage the race to the bottom. Want more? Then apply for statehood and accept federal laws regarding interstate trade, and accept a government in Washington DC.

    Unlike you Marxists, we capitalists will do anything for a buck.

    Including, apparently, feeding your children lead. Sorry- I don't accept killing human beings to make a buck as a viable business strategy.

    Even if it means bringing 1.2 billion third-worlders up to Western standards of living.

    Fine- get them to apply to Washington DC for statehood first, THEN trade with them when they have a minimum wage, an interstate highway system, and a reliable currency.

    Sorry if that offends you :)

    That doesn't offend me. Pretending to do so without first bringing them under the umbrella of worker, environmental, and consumer protections the United States affords to all of it's citizens is what offends me. Part of having Western Standards of Living means paying your workers $20/hr with full health and vacation benefits. When you capitalists can open an non-polluting factory in the third world that does that from the day it opens, I'll be all for it. Until then, only trade with countries which already have this. Is that so hard to understand?

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  79. There's no rare-earth in the USA? by FatSean · · Score: 1

    I wonder who we bought it from back in the 60s and 70s when the microchip was invented...

    Probably not a commie country, that is for sure! I'm sure we could find these rare materials from a country that plays fair.

    Maybe Canada?

    --
    Blar.
  80. Mod parent UP by Burz · · Score: 1

    IRI to stop pricing oil in dollars
    12:34:24 È.Ù
    Islamic Republic of Iran plans to stop pricing oil in dollars, IRI's Central Bank governor told IRIB on Friday.

    "Iran plans to stop selling its oil in dollars," Ebrahim Sheibani said, adding that Islamic Republic of Iran had reduced its assets held in dollars to 20 percent.

    Islamic Republic of Iran declared in December it would replace the dollar with the euro in foreign transactions and state-held foreign assets.

  81. Oil? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > I challenge you to find an item we need from abroad,
    > that has NO domestic production and NO potential for
    > domestic production and NO alternative technology.

    Oil, in the quantity that it is now used in the US?

    According to Wikipedia:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum

    U.S. Production is 8.7 Mio. Bpd, U.S. consumption is 20 Mio. Bpd.

    There is no way to make up for the difference in short time (say an election term) without a recession exceeding the scale of the 30's Great Depression.

    If you want to achieve it in a 20-year timeframe, then buy an american-made 50mpg car *now*, even if that means it would have to be a Toyota!

    1. Re:Oil? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Oil, in the quantity that it is now used in the US?

      Which could be replaced with a wide variety of other substances- fossil oil isn't the only oil.

      There is no way to make up for the difference in short time (say an election term) without a recession exceeding the scale of the 30's Great Depression.

      Oh, I'm not saying we'll be able to make the change to domestic production without a depression- I'm saying we need to make the change to lessen the danger of war to the United States.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  82. Intl. trade takes place in black gold: Oil! by Burz · · Score: 2, Informative

    Those exporting countries are willing sit on trillion+ dollar reserves because oil typically hasn't been available for import with any currency other than US dollars. Cutting a deal with Saudi Arabia (the OPEC swing producer) to price oil only in dollars in exchange for propping up their oppressive dictatorship, has caused the rest of OPEC to fall in line... at least until 2000 when Iraq switched from the dollar to trading oil exclusively in euros.

    In other words, there was an artificially-maintained relationship between oil and the US dollar, creating great demand for our currency and causing the world to subsidize the lavish/wasteful lifestyles of so many Americans. The more oil gets pumped to third parties, the more demand there is for greenbacks, and the more we can print up over here to send abroad in exchange for real goods and services.

    The oil-backed dollar is sometimes called the 'petrodollar'.

    Since 2000 Iran, Russia and Venezuela have started trading in euros as well and as of last month Iran has thrown down the gauntlet and excluded the dollar. Last month was also when China decided to start spending/investing that pile of dollars (their first investment fund, with more to follow, is $300bn.).

    1. Re:Intl. trade takes place in black gold: Oil! by RexRhino · · Score: 1

      Those exporting countries are willing sit on trillion+ dollar reserves because oil typically hasn't been available for import with any currency other than US dollars. Cutting a deal with Saudi Arabia (the OPEC swing producer) to price oil only in dollars in exchange for propping up their oppressive dictatorship, has caused the rest of OPEC to fall in line... But if the Euro was particularly more desirable than the dollar, why wouldn't Saudi Arabia just switch to Euro? It isn't like European governments are opposed to proping up oppressive dictatorships when the need arises, nor are they any less dependent on middle eastern oil (the U.S. imports about 49% of its oil, where as Europe about 90% of its oil). They have just as much to lose by seeing a radical Islamic government take over in Saudi Arabia.

      That is, of course, aside from the fact the the worldwide spending on oil, each year, is about 300 billion dollars ( http://media.www.michigandaily.com/media/storage/p aper851/news/2004/10/26/News/Oil-Spending.Grows.To .Almost.300.Billion.Dollars-1426133.shtml )... and U.S. exports each year are about 1.024 *TRILLION* dollars ( https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world -factbook/geos/us.html ) , making U.S. exports roughly 3 times the value of all the oil consumed in the world in any given year and totally shooting down the idea that the dollar only gets its value from oil.
    2. Re:Intl. trade takes place in black gold: Oil! by Dr_Barnowl · · Score: 1

      But if the Euro was particularly more desirable than the dollar, why wouldn't Saudi Arabia just switch to Euro? Iraq tried that, look where it took them.

      Iran wants to try it too. It's not surprising that the Bush administration has also been rumbling about Iran being a suitable candidate for annexation.
  83. Economics and slashdot by cartman · · Score: 2, Informative

    I read through a few of the posts here, and I think some of the posters are not experts in econ despite their claims.

    Although I'm not an economist, I am interested in the topic and have read some books about it.

    Some facts accepted by all trade economists:

    1. When the United States has a "trade deficit", it means that foreigners are buying US bonds (typically treasuries), or are increasing their reserves of dollars. (If you count selling bonds and sending currency as exports then the trade deficit is always 0).

    2.At some point in the future, foreigners will want their money back or will want to spend their dollar reserves, at which point the US will have to export more than it imports. Then the trade deficit will run the other way. There is no chance of other countries "cutting out" the US, because that would mean they sent us products and lent us money while getting nothing in return.

    3. The trade deficit increases the standard of living for Americans in the short term. It means that we can buy more things at Wal-Mart and other places than we otherwise could. It does not affect our overall unemployment rate. The only problem with the trade deficit is that it can't be extended indefinitely, which means that at some point we will have to export more than we import, which will be unfortunate for us.

    4. Although China accounts for a larger share of the trade deficit than any other single country, it accounts for much less than Europe and Japan combined.

    5. The reason Europe and Japan export things to the US is because they want to pay for imports from the US, either now or in the future.

    6. The trade deficit by itself is not necessarily a problem. The only problem is if there's a "hard landing" which means that Europe, Japan, and China demand their money back more quickly than the US economy can adjust, which would harm all parties.

  84. Re:Correction Requested by Teun · · Score: 1

    Doesn't matter where the exports are going to- exports are a waste of resources we could be using right here in America. Hmm, an interesting new market philosophy :)

    All of which, if you had RTFAd, is now made elsewhere. What's your next argument?
    Ask Boeing, Microsoft and Cisco, just to name a few.

    No, that's our biggest reason for importing- protection of our interests costs quite a bit in military materials. Try again. And what interests are actually better off with the policies of the last 7 years, Halliburton or Exxon maybe but they live of imports.
    --
    "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
  85. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Hmm, an interesting new market philosophy :)

    One for an overpopulated world. We don't have the resources to be spending them on exports, we need them right here at home to feed our own 300 million people.

    Ask Boeing, Microsoft and Cisco, just to name a few.

    Then maybe they should have their headquarters where their customers are, if it's that big of a problem for them to be patriotic.

    And what interests are actually better off with the policies of the last 7 years, Halliburton or Exxon maybe but they live of imports.

    The culture of importing and exporting would be impossible without Middle Eastern Oil. And it's not just the last 7 years- this problem started with the discovery of oil under the Middle Eastern Sand in the 1920s.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  86. The more we close our society... by rastoboy29 · · Score: 1

    ...the more we'll fall behind in everything--especially tech.

  87. Re:Correction Requested by tibike77 · · Score: 2, Informative

    First off... did you have a brainfart, or are you actually advocating USA ISOLATIONISM, on all fronts, economic, political and military ?!?
    You know it can never work nowadays, do you ?
    Not that I wouldn't just love to see the USA shut the hell up already and keep its nose out of other people's bussiness, work out internal issues first... but that will and could never happend.

    Second... fiat currency is insignificant compared to the "virtual money" in circulation nowadays, at least 90% of today's "money" doesn't actually exist at all (with a pessimistic estimate of up to 98% of it being virtual money... yes, that's one "real, paper dollar" out every 50 in "circulation" in the worst case scenario, or one out of 10 in the best case scenario).
    And government has zero fucking control over it, because it declined it in favor of the banking industry, just like most countries on this stupid planet.
    I'd really love to see a "bank run" in the world of today, with the banking system's bubble burst wide open to its rotten core all across the globe, governments forced to make banking a state issue rather than a private one.

    --
    By reading this signature you agree to not disagree with the post you just read.
  88. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    First off... did you have a brainfart, or are you actually advocating USA ISOLATIONISM, on all fronts, economic, political and military ?!?

    I've actually been advocating that since 9-11-2001.

    You know it can never work nowadays, do you ?

    Depends on how you define "work". It'll probably hurt a lot. It will most certainly lose us the top 1% of our income earners- but then again I consider them to be useless parasites anyway. It will mean the loss of materialism. But we will survive, and that's all that counts.

    Not that I wouldn't just love to see the USA shut the hell up already and keep its nose out of other people's bussiness, work out internal issues first... but that will and could never happend.

    The only reason we're ever in anybody else's business is because of the trade to begin with. We have everything we need in our 50 states- there's no need for anything more.

    Second... fiat currency is insignificant compared to the "virtual money" in circulation nowadays, at least 90% of today's "money" doesn't actually exist at all (with a pessimistic estimate of up to 98% of it being virtual money... yes, that's one "real, paper dollar" out every 50 in "circulation" in the worst case scenario, or one out of 10 in the best case scenario).

    Same difference- I say go back to gold.

    And government has zero fucking control over it, because it declined it in favor of the banking industry, just like most countries on this stupid planet. I'd really love to see a "bank run" in the world of today, with the banking system's bubble burst wide open to its rotten core all across the globe, governments forced to make banking a state issue rather than a private one.

    Actually, four times in the last 200 years the US Government has taken it over.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  89. Re:Correction Requested by JanneM · · Score: 1

    fix it at the cash register instead by refusing to buy foreign-made goods.

    OK. Time to stop importing US-made goods then. Everybody makes their own stuff and doesn't trade with others.

    Of course, it means any idea or design owned by a manufacturer in one country will be unavailable in any other. Lots of medicines and other ideas you'd be without.

    --
    Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
  90. Another US Tech Trade Deficit by infiniphonic · · Score: 1

    "Everybody knows all the best stuff is made in Japan."

    --
    Crisis is the rule, not the exception.
  91. Re:Correction Requested by tibike77 · · Score: 1

    Well, good luck with that then.
    And I don't mean it sarcastically.
    However, I wouldn't hold my breath until it happends.

    --
    By reading this signature you agree to not disagree with the post you just read.
  92. Re:Correction Requested by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    First off... did you have a brainfart, or are you actually advocating USA ISOLATIONISM, on all fronts, economic, political and military ?!?

    I've actually been advocating that since 9-11-2001. So... Where do you get your oil?

    It's been tried. Doesn't work. The rest of the world simply sails on by and continues developing economically while you recede. Then one day someone comes along and invades, wipes out your army, navy with superior weaponry and you're dead.
    --
    Deleted
  93. Re:Correction Requested by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I agree, the US should isolate themselves from the rest of the world. When the US runs out of petroleum once we have an embargo in place preventing you USians from purchasing petrolium, you USians will need to purchase oil from the rest of the world. Then we can overcharge you for the petroleum and your economy will crash and burn one way or the other. Wooooooooooooooooooooot! That is what you will get for bombing others for disagreeing with you USians.

    Signed
    ---The Rest of the World

  94. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    OK. Time to stop importing US-made goods then. Everybody makes their own stuff and doesn't trade with others.

    Fine with me, since there are no US-made goods left, only goods made in the third world and repackaged in the United States. Which is my whole point- we need to start making STUFF again instead of just managing a bunch of contracts that have no ability to be enforced.

    Of course, it means any idea or design owned by a manufacturer in one country will be unavailable in any other. Lots of medicines and other ideas you'd be without.

    No, actually, it means that any idea or design owned by a manufacturer in one country is a patent that can't be enforced in another. It's not THAT hard to reverse engineer stuff.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  95. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    So... Where do you get your oil?

    Used from McDonald's fryers, and I filter it myself.

    It's been tried. Doesn't work. The rest of the world simply sails on by and continues developing economically while you recede.

    Which, at this point, is EXACTLY what the United States needs to do. We need the rest of the world to catch up to us, and then rejoin it when the playing field is more even. We need to let the Islamics fight out their little reformation. We need to let Israel fail.

    Then one day someone comes along and invades, wipes out your army, navy with superior weaponry and you're dead.

    Well, if you keep a good eye on your borders and put some money into hundreds of millions of intelligent and mobile mines, maybe not.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  96. Re:Correction Requested by TempeTerra · · Score: 1

    Doesn't matter where the exports are going to- exports are a waste of resources we could be using right here in America.

    Not necessarily, or even often, true. Exports aren't wasted resources, they should be traded for other useful resources such that both parties benefit. Trading should result in increased utility for both parties.

    And of course importing cheap foreign goods will destroy any local production capacity for those goods - but that's just because it's inefficient to produce locally. However, any goods required for national defense should definitely be the subject of trade protectionism in case trading partners turn hostile and cut off the import supply.

    --
    .evom ton seod gis eht
  97. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Only one slight problem with that plan- We already know how to make oil, we actually don't need to pump it out of the ground anymore.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  98. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Not necessarily, or even often, true. Exports aren't wasted resources, they should be traded for other useful resources such that both parties benefit.

    Only individuals benefit from trade. The American people go without so that we can trade? That's stupid. Take care of our own first, then trade if we have SURPLUS only. When every American has food, clothing and shelter; that's when we should start trading again.

    Trading should result in increased utility for both parties.

    Utility is for the rich- and 75% of America is not. Let's try feeding everybody a balanced diet, and having a roof over everybody's head first.

    And of course importing cheap foreign goods will destroy any local production capacity for those goods - but that's just because it's inefficient to produce locally.

    Efficiency doesn't matter as much as security does- destroying local production capacity leaves us dependent on trading partners instead of self-sufficient.

    However, any goods required for national defense should definitely be the subject of trade protectionism in case trading partners turn hostile and cut off the import supply.

    As long as we have a single homeless person in the United States, we have failed at national defense.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  99. Re:Correction Requested by TempeTerra · · Score: 1

    I'm glad to see that you're not wussing out and taking your philosophy half way ;)

    Only individuals benefit from trade. The American people go without so that we can trade?

    But surely you wouldn't say that trading the national corn surplus for central american bananas (which were then distributed to the people) would be robbing the people? What if there was no surplus of steel, but you could trade some of it for timber which was in extremely short supply? Surely these are ideal trading situations, regardless of your political leanings.

    Utility is for the rich- and 75% of America is not. Let's try feeding everybody a balanced diet, and having a roof over everybody's head first.

    A noble goal, but trade (foreign or otherwise) should make that easier not harder. I think you're assuming a pre-existing mis-distribution of wealth which is not relevant to the theoretical question of whether foreign trade is good or not.

    Efficiency doesn't matter as much as security does

    Concur.

    As long as we have a single homeless person in the United States, we have failed at national defense.

    Concur again.

    --
    .evom ton seod gis eht
  100. Not all "wealth" is the same by Via_Patrino · · Score: 1

    Objects are cheapier so the country is wealthier, but for how long?

    That depends of what kind of objects people buy and what they do with the savings of buying cheapier objects.

    There are two ways of making wealth last. Invest your wealth on production of more wealth or buy products that last long.

    People are generally buying consumer products like eletronics and big cars. Both usually don't last much since they're luxury products where the motivation to buy is buying the most "modern" model. They even do the opposite of producing wealth since both are energy hogs.

    Stuff are cheapier but people isn't buying the same thing cheapier but all their money can buy. So there's little real savings in the process to invest in production.

    In the short term it gives people a good life, since they're buying more luxury products, but if they shift wealth production overseas in the future they won't have money to buy those products.

  101. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    But surely you wouldn't say that trading the national corn surplus for central american bananas (which were then distributed to the people) would be robbing the people?

    I can when we could instead be using some of that land we use for growing corn for greenhouses to grow bananas, thus providing more jobs for more farmers. I can if the only reason we have a corn surplus to export to begin with is because we're paying taxes into a subsidy to raise it below cost (that's another part of my idea- no farm subsidies for businesses that export). I can if we can create everything we need right here, with no help from *anybody* else.

    What if there was no surplus of steel, but you could trade some of it for timber which was in extremely short supply?

    Timber isn't in short supply- it's a renewable resource. Just make Oregon's 3-for-1 law federal and nationwide (plant back 3 trees for every tree you harvest) and in 80 years you'll have more timber than we could ever use. And taking away a necessary item like steel to trade it for trees is just plain stupid.

    A noble goal, but trade (foreign or otherwise) should make that easier not harder. I think you're assuming a pre-existing mis-distribution of wealth which is not relevant to the theoretical question of whether foreign trade is good or not.

    Free trade has created the mis-distribution of wealth. Look at the top 1% of corporations supposedly headquartered here- NONE of them are truly domestic companies, they *all* use imports and exports. They have no loyalty to America because they are no longer American companies- just trendy PO boxes with overseas bank accounts to avoid income taxes.

    You'd be right if it was FAIR trade- but it's not FAIR trade, it's the exploitation of foreign workers and American consumers for the profit of the extreme minority.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  102. Take care of our own, then the US can trade. by sethstorm · · Score: 1

    Nobody 'took our jobs away' they simply outperformed us for a lower price. That required trade policy that was against the wishes of citizens who did not have money on pushing through NAFTA.

    Like I said, industries, especially in particular geographical areas, but eventually as a whole, go completely out of business eventually when we have machines or other products to replace them. Then invest in transitioning them so that there is no collapse. Even if it means open admissions to all US universities for citizens at the cost of some pork removal. There is nothing wrong with slowing it down to a manageable pace when things like this happen.

    you don't have a 'right to a job' you have to right to apply for a job. Remove Taft-Hartley if you want to cut regulation, renumerate/pardon those affected by its actions past 1980, and ensure it cannot be replaced. While you won't be able to get corporations to give up being a "virtual" individual, repealing that act would put union-busters in their place(including Reagan), history.

    You're not going to ever find something that's just right and sit on it for enternity, it'll just keep moving, like the rest of the planet. No justification for the transition to go the way it is now. Allow education to be obtained by citizens with no barriers, immigrants pay up - no exceptions or redefinition of the term "citizen".

    If someone else does it for a lower price, then quit your bitching and do one of two things: find another job doing the same thing somewhere else, or, learn to do something else and do that. Or you do the right thing and tariff the country to your level and create a equivalent tax credit for playing by the rules. Our country, our rules - they accept that we take care of our own and trade on our terms.
    --
    Twitter supports and protects racists - by smearing their critics with the "Hate Speech" label.
  103. The US dollar is falling... by Joce640k · · Score: 1

    The US dollar is falling in value so it isn't worth as much to them back home. This means they have to put up the price of oil to compensate.

    Meanwhile the US continues to waste trillions on defence/Iraq/public security theatre/etc.

    See a downward spiral coming...?

    In the late 90's the trade deficit was very stable, almost flat in fact. Now it's more than eight times bigger.

    Worried? You should be....

    --
    No sig today...
  104. I think you are missing the point by davidwr · · Score: 1

    If Kid A trades two bananas to Kid B for 1 apple, Kid A does not incur a 1 banana "trade deficit" nor Kid B incur a 1 banana "trade surplus". Actually, if Kid A incurs a 2 banana trade deficit and a 1 apple trade surplus. Kid B incurs a 2 banana trade surplus and a 1 apple trade deficit. In cash terms, the trade is even and there is no surplus or deficit.

    However, most transactions are not even swaps of goods or services. Most have a partial or complete cash component on one side or the other. If the Kid A traded 1 banana plus 10 cents for 1 apple, it would be clear that his deficit is 1 banana and 1 dime, and his surplus is 1 apple. Kid B's surplus is 1 banana and 1 dime, and his deficit is 1 apple. The term "trade deficit" or "trade surplus" refers to the cash component of the trade: Kid A has a 10-cent trade deficit with respect to Kid B for this transaction. Kid B has a 10-cent trade surplus.

    If you don't like it, make up a better term to describe the same thing. "Net cash outflow after all trades" to describe a trade deficit or "Net cash inflow after all trades" to describe a trade surplus seem a bit unwieldy.
    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
    1. Re:I think you are missing the point by monxrtr · · Score: 0
      No transactions whatsoever are "even swaps of goods or services". A values what B has more than what A has and B values what A has more than what B has, no matter what it is that is exchanged.. Trade occurs because what is received is valued MORE than what is given away in exchange. Nothing is taken; no trade deficit. Nothing is forced; no trade deficit. Everything which exists in the entire world reality before the trade exists in the entire world reality after the trade; no trade deficit.

      Using the terminology "trade deficit" is an absurdity. And it's an absurdity, as the many posts on this thread show, that leads massive confusion and false prognostications. It would be like calling ever hour of work a person did a 1 hour labor deficit because they traded away 1 hour of labor for something else; an absurdity. It would be like calling ever purchase every individual ever made whereby they exchange currency for another good (no matter what imaginary arbitrary borderlines are fudged) a currency deficit. That's absurd! The same amount of currency which existed before the trade exists after the trade. It would be like calling the entire division of labor structure which exists so that people specialize and trade away their excess production as causing a "trade deficit", i.e. the farmer who grows hundreds of thousands of bushels of wheat incurs "trade deficits" by exchanging the most marginal of his production away. A total absurdity.

      And both parties only traded in the first place because the exchange increased both of their respective profit wealth. Nations don't trade; only individuals trade. There is no difference whatsoever if the goods moved around are moved around in one artificial border "country" or moved around elsewhere. All individuals involved in all trade benefit, no matter where they are arbitrarily defined to reside.

      Just because governments can't short term pretend currency is real and not monopoly money (by forcefully and coercively establishing it as "legal tender" fiat currency) does not remove the laws of economics. But it's amazing how many otherwise bright people are utterly bamboozled when they start talking about "international trade" involving different currencies.

      If you don't like it, make up a better term to describe the same thing. "Net cash outflow after all trades" to describe a trade deficit or "Net cash inflow after all trades" to describe a trade surplus seem a bit unwieldy.

      That's absurd also. Both sides of the exchange increase their wealth by trading away a marginal surplus of something less wanted. Cash is just as subjectively valued as any other good or service. Drop some $100 bills on the ground and observe if anyone picks them up. Leave a box of donuts next to the coffee machine and observe if anyone helps themselves to some donuts. Credit is just as subjectively valued as food. That's why identity thieves steal people's identity to steal their credit. Promises are just as subjectively valued as electronics. That's why people borrow and lend with various terms. Cash is a part of everyday trade. But it's just one element of total subjective wealth, not the entire element of subjective wealth.

      The term "trade deficit" or "trade surplus" refers to the cash component of the trade: Kid A has a 10-cent trade deficit with respect to Kid B for this transaction. Kid B has a 10-cent trade surplus.

      And as I've already shown, that is an economic absurdity to call something a deficit which by definition increased subjective wealth and by definition still exists in reality. Nobody trades to be worse off. People only trade because they value what the other guy has MORE than what they have. The laws of economics don't cease to exist when you introduce imaginary borders. That's as unscientific as claiming the laws of physics or mathematics change from country to country.

      Again, THERE IS NO DEFICIT WHICH RESULTS FROM ANY TRADE! Let the general reader note the vehement objections such a simple demonstration incurs. That's

      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
  105. Re:Correction Requested by Time_Ngler · · Score: 1
    If it takes 1.2 billion third worlders working 12 hours a day in the cheapest of conditions to support our standard of living, what makes you think that we could support the same standard of living off of 300 million Americans working 8 hours a day and taking every other Monday and Friday off?

    We could:

    1. create a mini-world economy, where we have a mini third-worldish American population working in the same conditions as the real third worlders, supporting a mini-regular America population, who live as we do today, or

    2. some other more politically correct arraignment where there are a lot more people that are poor, but not third-world poor, and a lot fewer people are rich.

    Either way, the mean standard of living goes way down.

  106. Other nations leeching off the US Dollar by jesterzog · · Score: 1

    There is no gold standard... The dollar isn't backed by any commodity. The only value that the U.S. dollar has is that it can be used to purchase U.S. goods. For every dollar the U.S. spends on foreign goods, those foreign traders need to spend a dollar on U.S. goods (or on U.S. stocks or bonds or property).

    I realise that this side-steps the point, but there are still some countries that live or die on the US dollar, for better or worse. The US dollar can also be used to purchase their goods, and the money doesn't necessarily make its way straight back to the US.

    One thing that caught me by surprise when I was leaving Peru a couple of months ago was that the standard customs departure form asks people how much money they spent, expressed in US Dollars. US dollars are effectively the other half of a dual currency in Peru, along with Peru's on Soles currency. Virtually everyone accepts them, and some prefer them, at least on the tourist trail, and much moreso than in Bolivia or Chile (where I also visited). What amazed me most, though, was that even the Peruvian Government doesn't seem to have confidence in expressing amounts in its own currency.

    I suppose the main point, though, is that most countries that leech off the US dollar are probably doing so because they don't have a strong enough economy to keep their own currency stable... and so they're probably not in a good position to help keep the US dollar valuable if the USA isn't.

  107. Re:Correction Requested by JanneM · · Score: 1

    OK. Time to stop importing US-made goods then. Everybody makes their own stuff and doesn't trade with others.

    Fine with me, since there are no US-made goods left, only goods made in the third world and repackaged in the United States. Which is my whole point- we need to start making STUFF again instead of just managing a bunch of contracts that have no ability to be enforced. I'm sure you'll have fun making stuff without access to imported raw materials.

    Of course, it means any idea or design owned by a manufacturer in one country will be unavailable in any other. Lots of medicines and other ideas you'd be without.

    No, actually, it means that any idea or design owned by a manufacturer in one country is a patent that can't be enforced in another. It's not THAT hard to reverse engineer stuff. And vice versa.
    --
    Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
  108. Trade Deficit and Currency by Ignatius · · Score: 2, Insightful

    As a European, it I amazes me how many slashdotters seem to live in a complete state of denial, even going as far as to claim that "Trade Defcit" is an artificial and meaningless term - it is not! Unlike many other figures like the official GNP (which includes positions like "good will" and and other magic) or the official (hedonic) inflation rate, or the unemployment rate (determined by a telephone poll), the trade deficit is a very solid and easy to understand thing: the value of (real, tangible) goods and servicies going in minus the value of products going out.

    If you buy more stuff than you sell, then you have a net flow of dollars out. Whoever receives these dollars can do one of 3 things: (1) use the dollars (directly or indirectly) to buy US products, (2) lend the dollars back to the US (US bonds, treasury bills), expecting to get even more dollars back, or (3) buy stuff in the US (stocks, equity, real estate), again in the hope to make even more dollars from his investment. Since, for one reason or another, the US economy fails to offer enough products anyone outside the US wants to buy (1) (hence the trade deficit), we're taking about debt (2) and sell-out (3).

    A "normal" country wouldn't be able to do this for very long; as he would quickly (a) have its currecy devalued (if you have nothing to sell, no one outside needs your currency), (b) run out lenders (most countries dont have the luxury to indept itself abroad in their own currency to begin with) and (c) local assets to sell. Depending on whether you do or do not fire up the printing press you either end up in bancruptcy or hyperinflation.

    A super power like the US which is able to strongarm or otherwise convince the producers of some key commodities to trade exclusively in their own currency, can get away with it considerably longer as their are alway products to buy for dollars (most prominently oil) even if those are not made in the USA by US labour. This gives the dollar the liquidity which is necessary so that it even makes sense to lend back dollars to the US (instead of demanding real goods right away).

    It is even more helpful, if you can convice some producers of said key commodities (as e.g. Saudi Arabia), to set a good example by putting most of the money into US treasury bills and US assets (petro dollar recycling), as this postpones inflation and the devaluation of the dollar which in turn allows to keep the interest rates in a sane range as long as those bills are kept in the vault and are constantly renewed.

    Of course, not even the US can live on credit alone, eventually the lenders will want something "tangible", and if you cannot or don't want to provide goods, at least you can provide them "assets". Of course, there is only so much you can sell, so the trick is to invent more things to sell (e.g. "intellecual property") and to inflate the prices of existing investments. Since the inflation is in assets and not in consumer goods, this is not called inflation but a "boom" (after all, inverstors want prices to rise) before and a "bubble" after people realize that a high price dose not imply a sound and profitable investment (as happend in the dot-com crash and is happening right now in the real estate and mortage sector).

    You can, as some in this thread do, consider this a good thing for the US, after all, it basically means converting paper into Mercedes' and BMWs, and they would be correct if this games can be played infinitely - if you happen to be in the group that actually profits (that is, if you work in or close to the finance sector - if you're a production worker, well, too bad - maybe you can get a job as buttler or bodguard by those with better luck). Then it would make sense to deindutrialize your country and neither do you need an efficient education system as the rest of the world is supplying you with consumer goods basically for free.

    It won't work infinitely, though. The non-US world sits on an ever increasing pile of trillions of dollars in US-dept and overvalued assets. Ever

  109. Re:Correction Requested by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    Used from McDonald's fryers, and I filter it myself.

    Doesn't scale at all.

    Which, at this point, is EXACTLY what the United States needs to do. We need the rest of the world to catch up to us, and then rejoin it when the playing field is more even.

    Why should we do this?

    Well, if you keep a good eye on your borders and put some money into hundreds of millions of intelligent and mobile mines, maybe not.

    Maybe not, but I wouldn't put money on it.

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  110. Re:Correction Requested by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    we need them right here at home to feed our own 300 million people.

    Who among our numbers is starving?

    if it's that big of a problem for them to be patriotic.

    Since when is it their job to be patriotic (by your definition, apparently)?

    Based on your other spewage, you need to learn some economics. Your economic policies would take us down the path of Mao.

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  111. mod parent up by thaig · · Score: 1

    Thank - I think that this is succinct. I wish I could mod you up.

    --
    This is all just my personal opinion.
  112. Re:Correction Requested by yada21 · · Score: 1

    Of course he wasn't listening, that's why he's a marxist. He wants us all to be subsistence farmers - it would work (maybe) if the poplation was reduced to like 1/10th of what it is now. No doubt he'd be willing to choose - on totally objective criterion's - who lives and who die.

    --
    I will have a sig when the market demands it.
  113. Re:Correction Requested by Magada · · Score: 1

    Well, NK did. Apparently, with enough artillery, mines, conscripts and a couple deliverable nukes, you can be as isolationist as you like.

    --
    Something bad is coming when people are suddenly anxious to tell the truth.
  114. Really not true by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Chinese products are so low because they are cheaply made. In particular, the chinese foreign minister recently blamed Americans for the issues in Chinese manufactuering. His point was that mattel and other companies are only willing to pay so much for the goods (competition). As such, China is forced to keep their energy costs low( high pollution that we are ALL paying for; China accounts for about 90% of all mercury in the air), lighter-weight products to save construction and shipping costs( for the most part, read inferior material), decreased quality control (which is what we see is penny wise, pound foolish) and of course, low cost labour. Surprisingly, the labour cost it is NOT that low. Most of central America (and I would imagine the bulk of the 3rd world) make about the same amount of money. America, and probably the bulk of the west, would do better to use Central America for production. Energy is long term better deal for all (far less pollution in them), less transportation costs, and better quality control. Sadly, far too many ppl simply THINK that china is the place to be, rather than look into it.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  115. It gets worse by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Even the wealthiest of Americans are fleeing the dollars. The top 10 richest Americans have been moving their holdings out of here. In particular, Gates and Buffett have made a LOT of noise about the deficits, but few are listening. They have moved more than a 1/3 of their money elsewhere (supposedly with more to go).

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  116. Fine and Good, when true global trade by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    The problem is that China and others have their money fixed to ours. For example, up till recent times china's money was fixed to ours and several years ago, moved to the "basket", to which they control (but do not explain how they control it; in addition, the forumula is not forthcoming as it appears to be moved on other reasons).

    But, the real problem with China is that they are NOT a democracy. In a democracy with free trade, if trade is being screwed over by the gov, then the voters will tend to remove those leaders. With china, that is not possible. Worse, their leaders have a different goal in mind, but nobody really knowing what. I am a big fan of global trade. As you say, us is not a zero-sum game. But that requires money to float and it requires govs. to be freely elected. And that is NOT the case with a number of these countries where our manufactuering is increasingly being sent to.

    But you know that, after all your dad is an economist, right?

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  117. Now, this is scary by dcvchicago · · Score: 1

    What's scarier--the fact that the news item has an error (the 2006 US trade deficit was around $750 billion, not $38 billion), or that none of the prior comments picked up on the error?

  118. The Goose That Laid the Golden Eggs by dajak · · Score: 1

    So basically we have a goose that lays golden eggs, one a day. This is great, because everyone wants golden eggs. But there is a problem: the goose hands out IOUs for golden eggs all the time, and by now everybody has a big hoard of IOUs, much more than can reasonably be converted into golden eggs. As long as we don't question the proposition 1 egg = 1 IOU we can all feel rich, and the goose will continue to convert one IOU into one golden egg for someone every day.

    The problem is to make the goose stop issuing IOUs at will, while still converting golden eggs.

    Two constraints on the solution:
    1) It cannot depend on fooling the goose, because the goose is very shrewd. We wouldn't be stuck with the IOUs if it wasn't.
    2) It cannot depend on using or threatening force, because it is a mean monster goose out of hell that eats babies for breakfast.

    I fail to understand why China would be the first to break the status quo, except out of sheer malice. China will wait at least several decades until most Americans and Europeans with engineering skills are dead before it pulls a stunt like that. For now it will be content sending hordes of PhD students to the US and Europe.

    1. Re:The Goose That Laid the Golden Eggs by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      I fail to understand why China would be the first to break the status quo, except out of sheer malice They won't. But the oil producers might. They're selling the US oil and getting (soon to be worthless) bits of paper in return, and they basically hate the US anyway for it's continued meddling and interference. If the dollar continues to fall, they'll migrate their reserves (oh so slowly and carefully) into something else instead.

      http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=4743620 07
      http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/12/27/business/do llar.php
      http://www.ft.com/cms/s/277471c2-8889-11db-b485-00 00779e2340.html

      And so it starts...

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic le/2006/01/09/AR2006010901042_pf.html
      http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?page=article&i d=3436

      Even the US's strongest ally, Japan is planning to move away:
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aoJJUD7FH_7Q&refer=home

      The question is, will it be a slow, smooth change over decades allowing people to get used to higher inflation and higher interest rates, or will it be a disruptive one, bankrupting millions? With the social consequences of revolution, coups, civil wars, fascist dictatorships. Markets tend towards the latter as a gentle decline turns into freefalling panic...

      --
      Deleted
  119. Re:Correction Requested by pnewhook · · Score: 1

    This is the information age, who needs to travel? Everything you can ever learn is right at your fingertips. Any experience you could ever want is available in the United States already, within 3000 miles of home, so who the hell needs to travel? Travel is just a waste of resources.

    Spoken like someone who has never left their basement let alone travelled anywhere. Go visit a few places around the world and look for yourself with an open mind. I guarantee that will change your point of view.

    --
    Tesla was a genius. Edison however was a overrated hack who liked to torture puppies.
  120. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    If it takes 1.2 billion third worlders working 12 hours a day in the cheapest of conditions to support our standard of living, what makes you think that we could support the same standard of living off of 300 million Americans working 8 hours a day and taking every other Monday and Friday off?

    We couldn't- but then again, that may be a blessing in disguise. Have you read any Sayyid Qutb? He had a lot of crap- after all, he was the first Islamic Jihadist- but he was somewhat right about America's materialism destroying our spirituality.

    1. create a mini-world economy, where we have a mini third-worldish American population working in the same conditions as the real third worlders, supporting a mini-regular America population, who live as we do today, or

    2. some other more politically correct arraignment where there are a lot more people that are poor, but not third-world poor, and a lot fewer people are rich.

    Either way, the mean standard of living goes way down.


    I prefer #2- but to get there we're going to have to travel through #1.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  121. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    I'm sure you'll have fun making stuff without access to imported raw materials.

    The United States is quite rich in raw materials, thank you very much. Or at least we would be if we weren't exporting them to China.

    And vice versa.

    So what? Once we simplify our economy to a single country for the sake of reducing chaotic variables in the engineering, what does it matter if other countries copy us?

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  122. Re:Correction Requested by bbdb · · Score: 1

    If we only bought american goods, then we'd inflate our local prices,
    Thus increasing the wages of American Workers, which would in turn allow us to afford those higher local prices,


    ..and reducing overall purchases which would make a good portion of those workers unemployed (note: supply of labor would have increased, so its price, aka wages, would have fallen), in turn reducing purchases in the existing businesses which would go belly up and make their workers unemployed, which would again inflict downward pressure on wages, and so on until achieving new (old?), lower equilibriums of wages, employment and GDP.

    The economy would be literally rolled _back in time_ this way, it would have been like running reverse on video. You just don't get the math of it.

    This scenario has already been tried during Great Depression, when govt filled with sentimental illiterates like you prolonged depression of US economy into 1940s, while it could have been over by 1930 if govt didn't stupidly insist on enforcing high wages of union mob (nobody more was employed because wages were set artificially above their true, market price - no demand) enforcing high prices (which siphoned off the money that would have otherwise been used to make more purchases in new businesses and would get new companies rolling) while simultaneously strangling money supply (which caused severe liquidity crisis).

    You're an offshot of that righteous, sentimental, and tragically harmful idiocy.

    --
    Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
  123. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Doesn't scale at all.

    You asked where I get MY oil- not where we'd get ours if foreign sources were cut off. The answer there, is that we don't need it after last week's breakthrough with genetically engineered e-coli.

    Why should we do this?

    To keep the bottom 50% of our population from killing the top 2%.

    Maybe not, but I wouldn't put money on it.

    I would- it's now possible to solidify a border against *anything* crossing it, I've built the microbots myself, they're not that complex.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  124. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Who among our numbers is starving?

    The bottom 20%. Approximately. Since about 5% of those are homeless (though that number might grow in the wake of the subprime lending scandal), it's hard to measure. But the World Health Organization listed 4.5 million deaths from malnutrition in the United States last year. Of course, malnutrition in the United States rarely means a skinny corpse, due to the cost of transfat in relation to other available foodstuffs, but it does mean stuff like scurvy, rickets, and among children and infants, failure to thrive.

    Since when is it their job to be patriotic (by your definition, apparently)?

    Since they accepted incorporation papers from the State. Or, for individuals, since they were born here. It's everybody's job to be patriotic and pull together for the sake of the community.

    Based on your other spewage, you need to learn some economics. Your economic policies would take us down the path of Mao.

    Considering what China has done to us in the global marketplace, that would be bad how?

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  125. Re:Correction Requested by bbdb · · Score: 1

    What makes you think America has it's main export markets in the Third World?

    USA sells a lot of corn to Japan.

    Oops. Japan isn't thirld world anymore. Strange. It used to be.

    --
    Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
  126. For an economy worth more or less $10 trillion. by bbdb · · Score: 1

    "The United States is suffering again from a massive trade deficit -- $38.3 billion in 2006.".

    Geez. Next year this will turn US economy inside out.

    OK, no joking: frankly, the only reason of this deficit is that USA has money to spare and the rest of world doesn't (because it engages in war, or like in Europe, because it spends faithfully on govt projects and govt sectors, and then wonders why life gets worse instead of better).

    --
    Python is nice quick and flexible... but it provides so much rope a monkey would hang the whole ecosystem with it. -- in
  127. The concept exists, feel free to rename it by davidwr · · Score: 1

    The concept which we are talking about: the dollar/currency outflow from a country to purchase goods and services minus the dollar/inflow into a country from the sale of goods and services, exists. Any argument that the concept should be done away with will be ignored by most people and most economists.

    If you don't like the term, feel free to come up with a new term and get the world to adopt it.

    In the meantime, accept that a phrase's meaning comes from how it is used, not the literal meaning of its words.

    As to politically loaded terms: I disagree that the term "trade deficit" has any inherent "good" or "bad" connotations to it. It is true that politicians and others with an agenda have used the term in contexts that imply "goodness" or "badness" but on its face, it is nothing more than a neutral mathematical statement: Country A sent more of its local currency out of the country than it brought in through trade. Likewise, "trade surplus" is equally neutral: Country A brought in more of its local currency than it sent out through trade. Despite what those with agendas may imply, there is nothing inherently good or bad about either statement.

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
    1. Re:The concept exists, feel free to rename it by monxrtr · · Score: 0

      The concept which we are talking about: the dollar/currency outflow from a country to purchase goods and services minus the dollar/inflow into a country from the sale of goods and services, exists.

      Dollar/currency outflow exists from INDIVIDUAL to INDIVIDUAL only. "Countries" are just artificial labels for amalgamations of acting individuals. Only individuals trade. As there is no single instance of a "trade deficit" which results from any single instance of trade between any and all trading individuals, there is no "trade deficit" whatsoever, anywhere. In fact, examining trade between two individuals within a single artificial border country should suffice to show not just what a misnomer "trade deficit" is, but what an absurd concept it is. You walk into the grocery store and trade dollars for food. Both you and the grocer increase your wealth, PROFIT, by so trading. The same amount of dollars exist after the trade as before the trade, and the same amount of food exists after the trade as before the trade. There is no deficit anywhere! And in fact, both parties record in a strict economic analysis, an increase in subjective wealth PROFIT.

      If you don't like the term, feel free to come up with a new term and get the world to adopt it.

      Or get the world to admit through superior scientific and epistemological DEMONSTRATION PROOF that there is no such thing as a "trade deficit", and all who talk of such thing as a "trade deficit" are wholly and completely talking out their ASS.

      In the meantime, accept that a phrase's meaning comes from how it is used, not the literal meaning of its words.

      Meaning of words does not change reality or conceptions of knowledge.

      As to politically loaded terms: I disagree that the term "trade deficit" has any inherent "good" or "bad" connotations to it.

      Wow, you must be in an extremely small minority. The headline of the thread surely implied "bad", and most talked in just this thread about "trade deficit" with a "bad" connotation. Deficit implies LESS. That's a mathematical IMPOSSIBILITY, as I have PROVED. There is NOTHING LESS after trade in the sum total reality. And net subjective wealth INCREASES for both parties in the sum total reality. Where's the "deficit"? There is NONE. This strict mathematical, epistemological, and economic proof should get me the Noble Prize (I've replayed it many times on various internet message boards), as it really does revolutionize the entire field of economics by stripping away tons of false macroeconomic "theories". And I have 23 other Noble Prize worthy proofs that derive from this fundamental one in my repertoire. I lacked the confidence to assuredly demonstrate these claims for 5 years, and I had to study, and prove through competitive naysayers to tighten this baby up. And it's tighter than ever, and I like it. And I really do appreciate all who have tried to drill holes through it, as it forced me to back it up with ever more solid demonstrations. "I'd like to thank the Academy. Er, no." :D

      It is true that politicians and others with an agenda have used the term in contexts that imply "goodness" or "badness" but on its face, it is nothing more than a neutral mathematical statement

      It's a claimed DEFICIT. How is less MORE, "good"? That's an absurdity!

      Country A sent more of its local currency out of the country than it brought in through trade. Likewise, "trade surplus" is equally neutral: Country A brought in more of its local currency than it sent out through trade. Despite what those with agendas may imply, there is nothing inherently good or bad about either statement.

      The pertinent economic point is the goods imported are WORTH more than the currency exported, and vice versa, and it's completely artificially misleading to describe a "deficit" for something which occurs across imaginary border lines when the same description is not applied when trade occurs across other ima

      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
  128. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    ..and reducing overall purchases which would make a good portion of those workers unemployed

    Why would overall purchases decrease below substinence level?

    (note: supply of labor would have increased, so its price, aka wages, would have fallen),

    How does cutting off foreign imports (immigrants included) INCREASE the supply of labor? I would think that closing the borders would decrease the supply of labor.

    in turn reducing purchases in the existing businesses which would go belly up and make their workers unemployed, which would again inflict downward pressure on wages, and so on until achieving new (old?), lower equilibriums of wages, employment and GDP.

    I'm sorry, you lost me with how cutting off immigration and other imports increases the supply of labor.

    The economy would be literally rolled _back in time_ this way, it would have been like running reverse on video. You just don't get the math of it.

    Um, actually, that's the point. To roll the economy back to the idea of a self-sufficient, and therefore able to tell any other country to fsk off, United States of America.

    This scenario has already been tried during Great Depression, when govt filled with sentimental illiterates like you prolonged depression of US economy into 1940s, while it could have been over by 1930 if govt didn't stupidly insist on enforcing high wages of union mob (nobody more was employed because wages were set artificially above their true, market price - no demand) enforcing high prices (which siphoned off the money that would have otherwise been used to make more purchases in new businesses and would get new companies rolling) while simultaneously strangling money supply (which caused severe liquidity crisis).

    The difference being that we'd increase the money supply to go along with the increased wages. Or rather, revalue the wages to go along with the money supply. Liquidity is a fungible input- there's no reality to money to begin with, it has no intrinsic value.

    You're an offshot of that righteous, sentimental, and tragically harmful idiocy.

    Harmful to whom? To the rich, or to the poor? I'd point out that the Great Depression is EXACTLY what we need to end the materialism of the age.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  129. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Spoken like someone who has never left their basement let alone travelled anywhere. Go visit a few places around the world and look for yourself with an open mind. I guarantee that will change your point of view.

    The answer to that is, it's too dangerous. I'm looking for security, not a chance to be a martyr. Besides, I have everything I need within 3000 miles of home. Why should I go elsewhere?

    Oh, and keeping an open mind seems to be a great way to have your brains fall out.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  130. Re:Correction Requested by pnewhook · · Score: 1

    My answer to yours is 'knowledge is power'. If you don't know about something then you can only fear it. The only way to know if something is a real threat is to know it an understand it. Usually when that happens the preceived threat of the unknown is not justified in the slightest.

    But if you want to ignore things by sticking your head in the sand (and getting your ass blown off) then go right ahead. Incidentally the religious fundamentalists do exactly the same thing as you are doing - fear through ignorance.

    --
    Tesla was a genius. Edison however was a overrated hack who liked to torture puppies.
  131. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    My answer to yours is 'knowledge is power'. If you don't know about something then you can only fear it. The only way to know if something is a real threat is to know it an understand it. Usually when that happens the preceived threat of the unknown is not justified in the slightest.

    Oh, I understand it- I am it. I am the threat. I am exactly the same type of personality that has become radicalized all over the world. There is NO difference between me and a suicide bomber. I know the danger- apparently you are too stupid to know the danger.

    But if you want to ignore things by sticking your head in the sand (and getting your ass blown off) then go right ahead. Incidentally the religious fundamentalists do exactly the same thing as you are doing - fear through ignorance.

    Yes, which is the point. I already know the danger, so why would I put myself into the danger?

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  132. Re:Correction Requested by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    The bottom 20%.

    No they aren't. They're fat.

    Since about 5% of those are homeless

    Any most of the truly homeless are either mentally ill or simply unwilling to exist in society, they aren't relevant to the discussion.

    Since they accepted incorporation papers from the State

    No, their job is to abide by the laws of the country/state and serve their shareholders.

    Considering what China has done to us in the global marketplace, that would be bad how?

    Mao didn't do that. He's the one that killed 30 million by starvation during his great leap forward. And you call yourself a marxist.

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  133. Re:Correction Requested by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    Sure, if you like having 1/3rd of the population on the verge of death (that's with food aid from south korea).

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  134. Re:Correction Requested by pnewhook · · Score: 1

    Oh, I understand it- I am it. I am the threat. I am exactly the same type of personality that has become radicalized all over the world. There is NO difference between me and a suicide bomber. I know the danger- apparently you are too stupid to know the danger.

    I understand the danger - it exists mainly in the minds of people that are too afraid to face reality, people like you.

    The terrorist have only won when they succeed in forcing you to change your life - which is what they want. Apparently they have already claimed victory over you. Myself, I refuse to let them win and will always remain free.

    --
    Tesla was a genius. Edison however was a overrated hack who liked to torture puppies.
  135. Re:Correction Requested by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    You asked where I get MY oil- not where we'd get ours if foreign sources were cut off.

    Hey, you're the one proposing it as a viable alternative to foreign oil.

    To keep the bottom 50% of our population from killing the top 2%.

    Yeah right. the bottom 50% of the world population is more concerned with fresh water and something to eat than killing the west.

    I would- it's now possible to solidify a border against *anything* crossing it

    In your delusional fantasies.

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  136. Aging Infastructure by SonicSpike · · Score: 1

    Aging Infrastructure

    August 27, 2007

    The recent and tragic bridge collapse in Minnesota raises many questions in Americans' minds about our aging infrastructure, and what is being done to maintain it. Questions such as: "Was I-35 an isolated accident or are we approaching days when crumbling bridges and bursting pipes will be regular features on the evening news?"

    The poor ratings on the inspection report of that bridge, and similar deficiency findings on as many as 25% of our bridges suggests the latter. Estimates on what it will cost to bring deficiencies in our infrastructure back up to par range from massive to astronomical.

    Billions of tax dollars at all levels of government are devoted to infrastructure, but one problem is that politicians love to cut ribbons. Political capital is gained not from maintaining or repairing our systems, but from building new bridges, new stadiums, and new roads, often of questionable real utility. Seldom is there a ceremony or photo opportunity for repairing or maintaining something already in place.

    As the so-called Highway Trust Fund is set to go bankrupt as early as 2009, private investment firms are gearing up for partnerships, which could be a positive step, if handled sensibly. What we need to avoid are items such as the Trans Texas Corridor (TTC), which is phase 1 of the NAFTA Super Highway . The Spanish firm Cintra is set to take over toll collections after the TTC's completion, however it is unclear that they'll have any obligations for maintenance. The cost is being socialized, while the profit is privatized, effectively making the American people pay for it twice.

    Read the rest here...
    http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2007/tst082707.ht m

    --
    Libertas in infinitum
  137. Ron Paul? by SonicSpike · · Score: 1

    Have you researched Ron Paul? I think you would like his views and voting record.

    --
    Libertas in infinitum
  138. Um... by davidwr · · Score: 1

    Dollar/currency outflow exists from INDIVIDUAL to INDIVIDUAL only. "Countries" are just artificial labels for amalgamations of acting individuals. That's obvious. Your point?

    In fact, examining trade between two individuals within a single artificial border country should suffice to show not just what a misnomer "trade deficit" is, but what an absurd concept it is. Actually, I do this every time I balance my checkbook. However, it doesn't make the news. My trade deficit with the local grocery store is quite one-way, as it is with most of my trading partners. However, my "global trade balance" - the net sum of all the trades I make for goods and services, is currently a surplus. In other words, I am making more than I spend. When I retire, it will be a deficit - I'll be spending more than I make.

    (I've replayed it many times on various internet message boards) You should apply for admission to a doctorate program in economics, and use this as the basis for your dissertation.

    And I have 23 other Noble Prize worthy proofs that derive from this fundamental one in my repertoire. Don't say that two loud. There are 3 kinds of people who say they have Nobel-prize-worthy proofs:
    • Nobel-prize winners
    • People who deserve a Nobel prize
    • People who don't

    The latter is by far the largest category, and the vast majority of them are accurately described as kooks. Unfortunately, people being human, they will tend to pigeon-hole you into the largest possible subgroup of "people who say they have Nobel-prize-worthy proofs" unless you give them a strong reason to think they are wrong. Having a Ph.D. or a book used in university classrooms on your c.v. top the lists of ways to get people to take claims of Nobel-prize-worthiness seriously. Making such a claim on /. is among the best ways to ensure people dismiss not just what you have to say here, but everything you say on the topic, ever.

    The pertinent economic point is the goods imported are WORTH more than the currency exported, and vice versa, and it's completely artificially misleading to describe a "deficit" for something which occurs across imaginary border lines when the same description is not applied when trade occurs across other imaginary lines within "country" borders. It is artificial. However, your premise that the term isn't used internally simply isn't true. I've seen it used in newspapers and magazines for trade between locales or in and out of a particular locale. Unfortunately, such use is almost always in association with "buy local" campaigns, and they incorrectly say that your local town having a trade deficit with the rest of the world or the nearest big city is a bad thing.

    And it is demonstrably easy to show how politicians, the press, and bloggers, use the term "trade deficit" in a negatively connotative way. That's extremely DANGEROUS, as it influences government policy to turn protectionist, which is extremely STUPID, and causes poverty. Sadly, it is easy to show how politicians etc. use the term in a loaded fashion to push an agenda. Oh wait, I said that already a few posts ago.

    I've succinctly shown only profit wealth derives to all parties from trade. Um, that's not what this discussion is about. This discussion is about the terms "trade deficit" and "trade surplus" to describe cash inflow and outflow from a person, city, nation, or other grouping of people, companies, or other entities with respect to another individual or group or the rest of the world.

    Whether or not trade is profitable to none, one, some, or all parties in a trade is orthogonal to the discussion at hand.

    By the way, I agree that in a fair trade, when all parties are trading with all the facts at their disposal, all parties gain. However, that statement has nothing to do with the terms "trade deficit" and "trade surplus" in their mathematical sense.
    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
    1. Re:Um... by monxrtr · · Score: 0

      That's obvious. Your point?

      There's no such thing as a "trade deficit", Take VIII.

      Actually, I do this every time I balance my checkbook. However, it doesn't make the news. My trade deficit with the local grocery store is quite one-way, as it is with most of my trading partners.

      Why do you trade currency for anything? Are you trying to say you would be better off NOT trading?

      However, my "global trade balance" - the net sum of all the trades I make for goods and services, is currently a surplus.

      And it never is not,by definition of trade, by definition of every either/or choice to switch possession of goods and services, or to not switch possession of goods and services. Simple A versus B, less than versus greater than MATHEMATICS. Yup, since I set myself up for, since it was DESTINY that scientific advancement only occur through this set, everybody who got it wrong can APOLOGIZE for getting it wrong. It would be the gentlemanly scientific thing to do.

      When I retire, it will be a deficit - I'll be spending more than I make.

      Wrong. You'll by definition increase your wealth by "spending".

      You should apply for admission to a doctorate program in economics, and use this as the basis for your dissertation.

      Nah. It'll grate more on the field if I don't do the PhD. I'm a pissed off smarmy mother now. The Elite of the Field had/has their chance to acknowledge perfection and greatness. People generally don't like to be EMBARRASSED; let 'em risk their "Nobel" pride in the arena of ideas. Check my sig; I plan on stripping a lot away. What am I going to do? Give lectures while the professors and doctoral committees take notes while as apprentices rubber stamping the master as apprentices whilst pretending they are the master? Maybe in the CLOSED "qualification" system of yore pre-internet (though Copernicus too succeeded in the face of glorified contemporary slander).

      Don't say that two loud. There are 3 kinds of people who say they have Nobel-prize-worthy proofs:

      * Nobel-prize winners
      * People who deserve a Nobel prize
      * People who don't

      It must really suk to still be alive and have your "Nobel Prize" work proved FALSE. Plus they have to dig up some material every year to keep the streak of yearly awards going don't they? But don't ask people like Paul Samuelson to do papers on the economics of the awarding of yearly scholarship prizes; they don't even know what supply and demand really means, as evidenced by their false prognostications on trade. A fall in esteem of award bodies is synthetically the same to me as hoisting trophies and giving post dinner speeches.

      Having a Ph.D. or a book used in university classrooms on your c.v. top the lists of ways to get people to take claims of Nobel-prize-worthiness seriously.

      That's the pinnacle of truth? We're in the age of the internet now. I seriously doubt any professor of "esteem" likes to retreat. What was I supposed to put on my "C.V." anyways when at undergrad level I was declaring their "macro" economic theories were bullshit? How about I just whip it out, and those with basic mathematical and epistemological deduction skills can laugh at those who were wrong?

      Making such a claim on /. is among the best ways to ensure people dismiss not just what you have to say here, but everything you say on the topic, ever.

      Maybe that's why I found it beneficial to upgrade it from a "claim" to a PROOF? With little greater than and less than signs. I did keep my mouth shut for a while until I was *sure* I was right. Now it doesn't matter where it was first displayed, sans official academic journal. More and more people will point out and PROVE step by step, that there is no such thing as a "trade deficit".

      It is artificial. However, your premise t

      --
      "From DNA to P2P, we are all Copycats now. Go Go Copycat Power! Copycat Powers activate! Form of, a Copycat." --monxrtr
  139. Political economics by SonicSpike · · Score: 1

    You should check out some economic papers written by Ron Paul who is running for President:
    http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul-arch.html

    You'll find them interesting I'm sure.

    --
    Libertas in infinitum
  140. Re:Correction Requested by myster0n · · Score: 1

    No, actually, it means that any idea or design owned by a manufacturer in one country is a patent that can't be enforced in another. It's not THAT hard to reverse engineer stuff. Actually, it is, when, as you suggested in another post, nobody travels outside the US and the internet is blocked off at the borders, AND you don't import anything. In fact, in your model you wouldn't even KNOW of the new idea or design. The US could just as well be in another galaxy. In some cases this shouldn't matter much, in other cases it could literally mean life or death.
    --
    Nobody believes the official spokesman, but everybody trusts an unidentified source. -- Ron Nesen
  141. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    No they aren't. They're fat.

    Fat is actually a form of malnutrition; it means that you're not eating regularly and you're not eating healthy. The principle cause of not eating healthy in the United States is that nutrition has become a selling point- healthy foods are therefore more expensive.

    Any most of the truly homeless are either mentally ill or simply unwilling to exist in society, they aren't relevant to the discussion.

    So everybody who took a subprime loan is mentally ill.

    No, their job is to abide by the laws of the country/state and serve their shareholders.

    And since taxpayer money is used to create those laws, those laws should support the taxpayer.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  142. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Hey, you're the one proposing it as a viable alternative to foreign oil.

    It's one of many. Another good one is using e-coli to digest cellulose into gasoline. There are many other synthetics available with the wealth of natural resources we have in the United States- it just takes imagination and a willingness to do what is right regardless of profit, something that no capitalist today has.

    Yeah right. the bottom 50% of the world population is more concerned with fresh water and something to eat than killing the west.

    Who cares about the world? I'm talking about the United States, where the bottom 50% have guns.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  143. Re:Correction Requested by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    Who cares about the world? I'm talking about the United States, where the bottom 50% have guns.

    Wait, we have to stop innovating and maintaining our position so our poor don't shoot our rich? That makes no sense.

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  144. Re:Correction Requested by Magada · · Score: 1

    Are you suggesting that the US could not feed their population? Preposterous.

    --
    Something bad is coming when people are suddenly anxious to tell the truth.
  145. Re:Correction Requested by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    What kind of loser needs to sell to the third worlders with a market like that here at home?
    So if it's not the USA it's the third world? Maybe you should draw a venn diagram or and try to work out where Japan, Britain, Germany etc should go.
    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  146. Re:Correction Requested by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Just as well George Washington didn't rely on magic, or you'd all be speaking English. Er, wait...

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  147. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Wait, we have to stop innovating and maintaining our position so our poor don't shoot our rich? That makes no sense.

    It does in a country that is slowly slipping from a first world, three class system with high class mobility to a third world two class feudalism with no class mobility. Also, note, we don't need to "stop innovating"- we need to just have a different goal for our innovation, a rising tide that floats all boats instead of a Tsunami that blows away the town but floats your personal house to the highest mountain.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  148. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    So if it's not the USA it's the third world? Maybe you should draw a venn diagram or and try to work out where Japan, Britain, Germany etc should go.

    They're becoming third world nations quickly, we've already ruined their economies with foreign trade.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  149. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Just as well George Washington didn't rely on magic, or you'd all be speaking English. Er, wait...

    Actually, in a way, he relied on exactly the same sort of magic- historians now know he funded his campaigns on a whiskey business producing around 5000 gallons of distilled spirits every year. The only difference between genetically engineered e-coli making gasoline out of cellulose and yeast making alcohol out of corn mash is the genetics of the microorganisms- other than that it's precisely the same process.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  150. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    And yet- our government calls it a national security risk when a Chinese company tries to buy a Canadian company....something we shouldn't care about because we shouldn't be buying military kit from either.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  151. Re:Correction Requested by pnewhook · · Score: 1

    Then don't vote republican. They're the reason the terrorists want to keep attacking the US anyway due to their colossally moronic foreign policies.

    --
    Tesla was a genius. Edison however was a overrated hack who liked to torture puppies.
  152. Re:Correction Requested by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    No, you simpleton, the difference is that one is a proven working process and the other is a pie-in-the-sky daydream.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  153. Re:Correction Requested by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    But what about after all the fat bastards have been cannibalised?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  154. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    Then don't vote republican. They're the reason the terrorists want to keep attacking the US anyway due to their colossally moronic foreign policies.

    You mean Carter was a Republican? Or did you forget the support for the Shah of Iran which started all the mess between Shia and Sunni again?

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  155. Re:Correction Requested by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

    No, you simpleton, the difference is that one is a proven working process and the other is a pie-in-the-sky daydream.

    They're just methods of building hydrocarbon chains. The basic technology is 4000 years old- it's only that just now we understand and ARE ABLE TO MANIPULATE IT.

    --
    SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
  156. Re:Correction Requested by pnewhook · · Score: 1

    You mean Carter was a Republican? Or did you forget the support for the Shah of Iran which started all the mess between Shia and Sunni again?

    Read your history..

    The American support for the Shaw was well established long before Carter became president. In fact, when Carter was in power, the Shaw was (unfortunately) on his way out - leaving the country in January 1979 (Carter elected in 1977).

    The US liked the Shaw because he supported the modernization of Iran with education and feedom reforms. However the Islamists did not like the changes which eventually had him overthrown. Yes the Shaw was brutal in some of his repression strategies, but he understood the dangers of allowing the religious fundamentalism to exist and grow in power.

    After the Shaw left, we now have a fundamentalist regime bent on the destruction of the 'great Satan' USA. Then of couse, Regan gave arms to the Iranians, then decided that was a bad idea and gave the Saddam Hussein and Iraqis more arms to fight the arms given to Iran. And don't forget the arming and training of the Taliban in Afghanistan against the 'evil' soviets.

    So, todays big touble spots: Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, all trained and supplied by US Republican foreign policy.

    And go back a little further even. The Shaw dictatorship was put into place by the US government when the CIA overthrew the democratically elected Iranian government in 1953 because the US/Britain wanted to retain power of (can you guess??) the countrys oil. Eisenhower, a Republican, was in power at this time and authorized the overthrow. This was the original catalyst for the future Iranian problems.

    So I maintain my original premise - if you want personal security, stop voting in these moronic warmongering Republicans who do nothing but drive the country into ruin and piss off the rest of the world in the process.

    --
    Tesla was a genius. Edison however was a overrated hack who liked to torture puppies.