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Microsoft's XO Laptop Strategy
gbulmash writes "Microsoft is spending a 'non-trivial' amount of money to get Windows XP working on the OLPC project's XO laptop. But why? Despite the conjecture that the Linux-based XO could convince millions of people in the developing world that they don't need Windows and build a huge base of developers for Linux, there still remains the question of how Microsoft would convince owners of XO laptops to buy and install Windows XP over the functional Linux-based OS already on it. It's doubtful that Microsoft could encourage or coerce Negroponte to put XP on the machine, so whose arms will they twist?"
The first is the driving force behind all of Microsoft's actions (and, in fact, almost everyone's): money.
They are developing this so that people can pay an extra $20 to get XP on the OLPC. I assume they will have to drop the regular license price of $90 to something not one half the cost of the laptop. Well, for common sense reasons and also the fact that it destroys the idea of a cheap laptop for kids.
The second idea is that they've finally caved. They finally recognized that releasing an XP shell for free (but not open source) will guaranty their survival because it will allow the poor, the desperate & the cheap to still run windows and possibly alleviate piracy. The idealists like us will still use open source but for practicality purposes many will go along with this. Vista will still cost you an arm and a leg but it will be shinier and flashier and souped up compared to this shell of XP. This will also ensure that the children will grow up accustomed to the broken model of Windows and any development they do will be Win32.
So, I see this as in all likelihood a cross between the two above. They will release Windows XP trimmed down but it will only run if it recognizes the hardware as XO (to prevent you and I from using it to run an MMO only on Windows without the operating system or SVCHost process taking up 30% of my resources). So it's free on OLPCs but still costs fat cat Americans & Europeans moneys. They retain some profit and are seeding themselves into the minds of youths that will be responsible for saving their countries from third world status.
It's the same strategy they used with their "Academic Alliance" software giving to universities & the not so strange donations that Gates oversees when a village in a third world nation receives computers and technical support worth thousands of USD.
Microsoft's interests are their survival and money.
Nicholas Negroponte should be thrilled that Microsoft is already recognizing his success and I wish to send him my gratitude and admiration as so far he has been the only person in this picture with purely good motives. Also all the unnamed developers that have made this possible whether they be employed to do it or not.
Don't get me wrong, it's great that the world's largest software maker is fighting to give more options to people in need. I'm just afraid that they're going to try to maneuver putting their software on instead of the Linux kernel and we'll have to deal with Windows/Internet Explorer's horrible insecurities on a global level.
My work here is dung.
Does it seem to anyone else that it's a dichotomy to put anything Windows on Linux? If I run Linux, it's usually a box I want to stay up and work all the time. This is not Window's thing. The DVD player in my house that freezes, is my XBOX360. The only HD DVD player I know that freezes, is the HD DVD hanging off my XBOX360.
that Microsoft could give away XP and subsidise the price of the laptop.
Sure they'd make a loss, but wouldn't it be worth it just to secure dominance?
Summation 2
Why Microsoft would have any desire to do this is beyond me. They are putting themselves into the shoes of non-MS OS's. As we nerds know, most people are satisfied enough with whatever OS comes with their computer and have no desire to put in the work to change to another system. It's not like this is a high profit region, (in the sense of price per unit) they won't be able to shaft the Africans as well as they have the First World consumers. Plus, wouldn't they need to develop some kind of protocol similar to the XO's mesh in order to allow for communication? Or is that a hardware thing?
Now MS will have to compete against a working, installed OS that is on the laptops, based on their own merit. Since Linux can be free, including Windows will increase the price, and might not be as usable.
Finally we can see if windows success is due in a large part to it being included in most computer purchases.
If I have nothing to hide, don't search me
they will design a stripped down version which they will give away for free! Just to make sure that when these children grow up and are able to spend money, they atleast know that microsoft is a company they can buy products from.
. . . its first piece of malware.
Let's see. Three options.
That's a little tongue-in-cheek, but this can't end too well for them from my. This will also prove that the wee little power of the OLPC (compared to consumer computers in the US, etc) is enough for anyone... or it will run like a dog and turn off large chunks of these "customers" to their software.
Nothing like buying/pirating that "nice Windows that everyone likes" and finding it will run slow and have to handle viruses and all that other stuff.
Could end well, I kinda doubt it. But then I bet they'll be selling/giving out the crippled version that they offer in some countries that only lets you have 3 windows open (or whatever), and not the real thing.
Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
Buy and install? Why would these developing nations have to buy Windows? Microsoft could intend to give it to them for free. Because they're so fluffy and altruistic and gosh-darn-nice of course, there'd be no ulterior motive whatsoever.
Honest.
http://twitter.com/onion2k
Apparently they haven't read this article - how can they expect their OS to run smoothly on a cheap laptop if they can't make it run smoothly on a high-powered desktop?
Note: I know, that's Server 2008, this is XP... My comparison stands.
I'm waiting for a "-1 somepeoplejustshouldn'tgetmodprivileges" meta-moderation.
I guess Microsoft has begun to face reality, pushing XP over Vista.
Slashdot: Playing Favorites Since 1997
By saying they are about to support the XO system, they create doubt about the current XO system and limit supporters. Enough people will wait to see what Microsoft will do, that even if Microsoft doesn't do anything, the support for the Linux XO system will be limited. This is similar to what Microsoft did to Novell Directory Server and other systems. If Microsoft was genuinely interested on a computer on every desk, they would have put out their own XO system a decade ago and would be supporting the current XO project. No, they are interested solely in control.
Here's to losing my Karma Bonus again....
Microsoft is a monopoly, therefore they must spend an inordinate amount of cash and time to leave no stone unturned in their market. Profit or not.
This is a very old and proven method of marketing. A good example of this is still in use today. Crack Dealers. Give your crack away to children, so they become dependant on it. Once they are completely addicted, you have created a demand. Which allows Microsoft to continue business with little fear of anyone thinking any differently then they want. Because no addicted customer is going to revolt against their crack dealer. But they will introduce their friends and family to crack, and continue the cycle.
The most clever thing to do for Microsoft is hand out copies of Windows for free in the third world. If they don't give them for free (or at _very_ low cost), people won't use Windows and get used to GNU/Linux and other free alternatives to Windows. M$ has to decide what they want: No money now, a bigger market share of GNU/Linux and no money later - OR - no money now, Windows in the developing ([insert oblg. joke her]) world and perhaps much money later, when they can afford to buy Windows.
I think a Microsoft employee has already said this about China: Installed pirated copies of Windows help Microsoft more than installed copies of GNU/Linux.
It's the same in the drug business: you get the first cigaret gratis, and once you are addicted, you gotta pay...
I don't see any point in porting desktop versions of Windows, since few of the applications are going to work anyway. Windows Mobile might make a limited amount of sense, but even there, I'd ask: why bother?
If the OLPC really increases their market share dramatically, and since the OLPC model shifts all marketing a distribution costs onto the country purchasing them, and because all orders are bulk orders in the millions, maybe they could cut the price dramatically. It's all marginal profit to them and a margin of say $20 might be just dandy. It would be a cut feature version to avoid cannibalizing 1sth world nation sales. Maybe they could even open source the low end version and turn the world into their kernel developer.
The other possibility is that they just want a low power system they can embed in the iLoo 2008.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
They know all they need to do is port Bob do and they'll be swimming in it. This is the perfect Bob platform. They'll deny it and it's a secret project, but you know in your heart it's true.
The problem they ran into was translating "Not Allowed" into all those third world languages.
More, what does this say about their commitment to Vista? Why isn't there a push to get a low-footprint version of Vista on the XO laptop? I feel like the whole company could benefit from money being thrown at figuring out how to de-beef that thing anyway, and it would speak more to the company's buy-in of their own OS if they were developing their OS of the future rather than one that's rapidly approaching EOL.
When some African child gets a 419 scam he can just get a couple of his buddies together and walk down teh street to personally kick the guy's ass!
Give a man a fish and you have fed him for today. Teach a man to fish, and he'll say "WHERE'S MY FISH, YOU IDIOT?"
1) What is MS smoking? If they plan to release Windows-XO for free, and ship computers with it, they might have a chance, but when the laptop is functional, and already has an OS - well, remember Netscape on Windows? Doesn't matter if it is better, what is there already, will win (and if it is better, that certainly doesn't hurt). Heck even Firefox, which few who have tried, will claim is worse than IE, hasn't surpassed IE in the windows browser market.
2) What is it with the vaporware tags? MS may not deliver products that match the hype and expectation, but they don't get much into the vaporware arena either. Letdownware might be a better term...
Then they'd fund an underground source (think of how they funded SCO) to develop an easy one-click port from OLPC Linux to Windows, keeping all valuable user files in tact.
Then the underground source would accidentally leak it on the P2P networks, and the rouge pirate underprivileged kids would think they are "sticking it to the man" and getting something real valuable (Windows + Office), when in reality Ballmer is just training a whole new set of young people that they cannot live without Windows.
Shhh don't mention this strategy to them!
People figure out how to get Linux to run on a PS2, because its interesting and opens some possibilities. I'm sure Microsoft would like to find out how to make their OS run on lower-end hardware, even if they don't use XO they could use some other device. They can buy these things for $100 each, put Windows on them, and sell for $150. People would buy it
... and because all orders are bulk orders in the millions, maybe they could cut the price dramatically. See, your problem is that you're thinking like a human being with a heart and soul who cares for his fellow man. Well, we have this thing called 'the internet' and it allows all software to be distributed 'in bulk' to everyone using the internet. I like your explanation and agree that that is how they should look at it. But it's obviously not because they could have treated everyone in the world as 'bulk' when they released their latest piece of MS Office software. Imagine downloading it to the tune of $5. It makes sense because then everyone would use it, everyone would pay the trivial cost and they would make a lot of money.But that's not the case because they know they can make more money. They balance their greed and desire for money with their market dominance. If they go too far one way, they lose ground on the other. Their marketing is so good they don't even worry about whether or not the software is great. Having coded web apps for IE, I can tell you in a heart beat I wish it never existed. Maybe they could even open source the low end version and turn the world into their kernel developer. You must be new here. Great idea, I agree with you but again, money. You and I both know that would improve Windows too much!
Microsoft is putting more money into development of a product that's going to net them less cash than the original product they already dumped millions into. Something funny is going on here and I bet it has to do with them fearing losing world wide dominance on an operating system. Just in numbers! Start adding millions of machines running Linux bought by governments and suddenly your CEO reports can't brag insane digits of market share over Linux. It's probably more fear driven than anything--but the final thing they need to figure out is how they can get money out of this deal.
My work here is dung.
This is even more an issue, as with the free versions of Visual studio, MS is allowing people to learn how to develop for MS platforms for free. MS has always believed strongly in the "we don't sell the OS, we sell the ecosystem" philosophy, and that is what they are trying to do. Help people learn to develop for their products, so they continue to have a growing market for upgrades.
Threat of lawsuit.
:25% of machines you shipped must included Windows." Regardless of the merits, legal process alone could bankrupt Negropointe. Negropointe might just cave to 'make the problem go away.'
I recall a story (thus unverified, but sounded plausible) that IBM once went to SUN and demanded licensing fee for varies patents. When SUN debunked IBM's individual claims, IBM replied "We have many thousands of patents in our portfolio. Do you honestly think we can't find something infringing in our portfolio?" SUN paid up just to make IBM go away.
All Macroshaft has to do is make demands of Negropointe to the tune of
Head explodes!
...there still remains the question of how Microsoft would convince owners of XO laptops to buy and install Windows XP over the functional Linux-based OS already on it. It's doubtful that Microsoft could encourage or coerce Negroponte to put XP on the machine, so whose arms will they twist?" I expect Microsoft will be going after the governments that are buying the XO laptops and then distributing them. It makes for a juicy target as it allows Microsoft to have Windows on the laptops in an entire country. It also has the advantage that it gives Microsoft a good leverage point: they can take a two pronged approach to convincing governments that they should do a mass reinstall of all the laptops with Windows before distributing them.- Microsoft can pitch the whole "Windows is the standard, and you need to prepare your children to compete on the global market", suggesting that anything but Windows is going to cripple the children once they use anything other than the laptops. The usual FUD.
- Microsoft can have side negotiations about bulk deals on Microsoft software for the government. Discounts won't cost MS that much, but they could represent a decent chunk of change to some of the countries that are looking to be involved in this program.
That makes for an easy point of attack, and allow Microsoft to subvert the XO laptop scheme quite effectively. Essentially they just go straight to the middleman with a combination of FUD and bribes, with the result that many of the laptops end uyp training the kids in Windows.Craft Beer Programming T-shirts
Tables turned? lol
The new joke is not running linux on your toaster, but windows...
Can it be that Microsoft is trying to figure out if the solution is infringing on any of their patents and that they then are able to kill the whole project unless they are to provide the OS.
If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
I think it's about perceived value. Most people don't value what they didn't pay for. It's free, so it's not worth much, right? This is the reason why I won't give my child any money for college. Not a penny. I'm going to make them pay their own way, out of their trust funds and other incomes. If I paid for it and gave them a free education, they wouldn't value it at all.
Same with Linux. It came with the computer, and it's free anyway. Microsoft is going to make a HUGE amount of money selling XP to people who want something they paid for. It's a perception that it's better because Microsoft can make money from it.
Right, I know all the objections, and most of them are wrong or irrelevant. That's because you can hop on the Internets and fill my computer full of arguments about freedom and open software and stuff. But, you can't as easily hop on the Internets and do the same thing to a kid in Niger, can you? It'll take you a couple years to educate these kids, and in that two years (or 4 or 6) before you can tell the rest of the world about your great free software, Microsoft will make billions selling them something they already have.
No weapon in the arsenals of the world is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men.-Ronald Reagan
Why would Microsoft bother spending time and money to adapt an OS they're about to ditch? They have already promised to stop selling XP next year, and there is no way the XO laptop, or the next version to come after it, will have the horsepower to run the superbloat of Vista.
Unless they are conceding that XP will be around longer than they would like...
Better to
This is speculation on my part, but I'm guessing that in part this is flanking maneuver.
Since there has been a computer industry, the most important place to keep an eye on is what I call "the high end of the low end". that's the place where computers are being stretched into new applications they didn't address before. First comes the killer application, then comes the figuring out how to steal application domains from the mid range.
Any place that is going to have these devices already has all the conventional laptops and desktops it can support. These devices are creating a new class of low end devices, which leaves the machines currently running windows in the mid-range: the abode of dinosaurs.
Some day Microsoft may face a government in a place that has millions of these devices in the hands of the populace, that may consider it a reasonable idea to migrate away from Windows because of that. Instead, Microsoft can make them a proposition: we'll cut you a deal on Windows for the OLPC so you can "upgrade" them to a real operating system. You will bring all those people on this toy operating system into parity with the rest of the world, which makes you a hero. And you get to do those major IT projects you are considering in Visual Studio 2010 instead of having to learn Python.
The exact details of what they have in mind may be quite different; it may even be that they don't really have anything specific in mind. But Microsoft is a company that believe is technology; thus they take the possibility of OLPC's having a transformative effect on societies seriously. The possibility that OLPC can change the rules of the game. On the off chance it does, then the money spent to port Windows to the device will be a small price to pay to have a hand in the game. If it doesn't, they still take away knowledge about porting their platform to more resource constrained devices, so if anybody makes a splash in that area, they'll be prepared with an answer.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
Considering the millions TV advertising costs and it's only reaching people already familiar with their brand for 10-20seconds, this is pretty good value for MS.
Personally I'm not a fan of the OLPC's approach of using a version of linux that lacks compatibility with most other versions. It seems the key benefit is that most programs are essentially scripted (in Python iirc). I can't see the vast majority of school kids getting to grip with the language, especially if they've had limited access to PCs so far in their lives, I would've thought compatibility with the vast library of Linux programs would be more important.
I has to be installed at the factory for no extra cost.
...what are they up to?
Even so, I don't see how it would benefit anybody:
a) Windows simply doesn't have the security models in place to not need a complete reinstall every month or so.
b) Windows isn't designed for eight year olds to use. The XO has an application model which matches the target users.
c) No "popular Windows apps" are going to fit in the XO's flash memory, Windows + a couple of bundled crapplets is going to be far less useful than XO's current software.
So
I think it's just that they must be seen to have a strategy - no matter what it turns out to be. They've assigned somebody to the job and are busy releasing empty press articles.
I only hope they don't cause actual harm to the project. The OOXML fiasco has clearly shown that Microsoft isn't above palm-greasing and the political systems in XO's target countries are an easy target for people with ready money.
No sig today...
Proof of concept. Perhaps one or more groups got the go ahead to pursue a light weight OS that is more portable than current offerings (CE, Xp, and Vista). Showing it to work on the OLPC would be just great for press time.
This would be the precusror to more Windows named systems with a new common core. Not his first generation attempt but aiming more at the types of devices which MS expects to take off in the upcoming nations of the world.
Personally I think the OLPC is a waste of money, more should be dedicated to infrastructure and cheap communication... (as in, cell phone access to stuff relevant to those who need it, reserve computers for classroom presentation to students.. not something to haul home and evetuanlly see on the side of the road)
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
I know a few people working on the XO laptop and here's why Linux will not be replaced on it. They have taken the Linkux kernel and stripped it down so much for use with the machine. The drivers are fine-tuned to work specifically with the laptop and nothing more. They do this to squeeze maximum performance out of the really modest hardware in the XO. Will Microsoft let them tweak the XP kernel for this? I doubt it. They need to do this to save power, disk space, and for speed. Until Microsoft sees why Linux was chosen (it wasn't for the price), they will be utterly confused, and when they do see why and understand it, they will either release XP as open source (not going to happen), or realize they are not in the same business.
is stealing from microsoft.
the world's users are theirs. period. that's just the way it is.
any computing device without windows is just taking from them what is rightfully theirs.
just ask em
reminds me of the ol ITRON from Japan. a paragraph or two from a Linux News article (http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/31855.html):
"Impact Deferred
The TRON Project is not new; in fact, it was poised to its mark more than a decade ago, in Japan's PC industry, but the U.S. government intervened. In 1989, Japanese electronics giant Matsushita introduced a BTRON PC, a machine that stunned the industry with its advanced capabilities. The BTRON PC had an 80286 Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) The HP ProLiant DL380 G5 Server with Systems Insight Manager (SIM). Latest News about Intel chip running at 8 MHz and a mere 2 MB of memory, but it could display moving video in color in a separate window. Also, it had a dual-booting system that could run both the BTRON OS and MS-DOS.
When the Japanese government announced it would install BTRON PC in Japanese schools, the U.S. government objected. It called the Japanese initiative "actual and potential market intervention" and threatened the move with sanctions. The Japanese, dependent on the U.S. export market, quickly dropped the plan. The U.S. government later withdrew its threat, but the damage had already been done. Nearly all Japanese companies involved in TRON-related activities had canceled their projects."
This is a little different situation, so what will Microsoft do now in order to seize the issue?
There's no "middlemen" in the XO supply chain the XO project could simply refuse to allow Windows on the machines.
Would Microsoft's PR people be able to cope with the bad publicity that would bring them? I doubt it. They'd be caving after a couple of weeks when the developed world revolts against them (which I certainly would).
No sig today...
1. There is an internal push by Microsoft to acquire 100 startups asap. Certainly there is a halo effect (no pun intended) in the company to "be a part of" other startups. This is an interesting startup.
2. Despite the common perception on Slashdot, a lot of relevant Microsoft employees are smart, interesting, caring people who might just find getting their OS to work on this platform a tantallizing challenge.
3. The work performed can be used down the road for similar devices. So, even if Windows XP doesn't materialize on OLPC, they can show off how it can be done for other, similar, vendors. (Isn't the Acer research program and a number of other companies' research programs indicating that they are investigating computers in this price bracket with similar features?)
4. The Gates' foundation has had a HUGE impact on third world countries in many, many areas. We already know that the OLPC turned down Apple OS X because it proprietary components -- so no way will Windows XP be a default. But if Gates' foundation purchased the devices themselves (in quantities of many millions), installed Windows XP "OLPC Edition" and gave them away... it would be an interesting combination of altruism and self-servicing. Too many arguments on both sides to list them for this article.
It's doubtful that Microsoft could encourage or coerce Negroponte to put XP on the machine, so whose arms will they twist?"
Governments'. Corrupt governments' arms. Ones that crave money, fame, and other gratification from relationships with large (generally corrupt) companies.
Previously: "Linux... Toward the Sunrise..." Now: "Linux... Toward the-- No, now, part of Every Sunrise"
The main reason a lot of people have Windows is to play games.
I don't think anyone's going to mod an XO with a Geforce 7600, so what's the point?
"I'm not a fan of the OLPC's approach of using a version of linux that lacks compatibility with most other versions."
You just don't get it.
The idea behind the XO isn't to be able to run "standard" applications. The idea is to create a whole new ecosystem based around the needs of eight year old children.
The principle points addressed by the XO are communication (instant messaging) and replacement of paper school books.
No sig today...
I know this runs counter to the "et tu billy" culture that has developed around here but it is worth mentioning that Bill Gates is a philanthropist at heart. He has given away an estimated 29 billion USD since the year 2000. His influence at Microsoft is still considerable even if he doesn't have the fancy title on his office he once did. Maybe Gates thinks he can create some useful software and give it away for free. I doubt Microsoft can compete with an already mature and free Linux product in this market but I support the competition. We shouldn't be so fast to judge.
Microsoft has to be seen to have a strategy, even if it's a hollow one.
No sig today...
The software that MS will provide will, by necessity, be hardware-specific to the XO platform.
You almost have to do that, as there's no hard drive (you'll need a flash file system instead)
and minimal RAM, and a non-standard display. As a matter of fact, XO doesn't look anything like the
platform MS is used to running on.
The OS Microsoft finally provides may look like XP to the user,
but I suspect it's going to be more like a highly modified WinCE inside.
They'll give the OS away...after all, it will only run on the XO...and advertise how
they're helping to educate the developing world's children -- the Microsoft way.
And the reason they're going to all this effort?
I think MS sees this as a strategic move. OLPC potentially delivers a pretty
large number of young eyeballs. It would be a *very* Bad Thing for their
first exposure to computers to involve a friendly penguin wearing the label "Linux".
Much better for future MS sales that they see the Windows logo.
Seems to me that the thinking would go something like this: "Why do those Red Hat guys want their OS on that cheap laptop? They must have a long-range plan to make money from it at some point, otherwise they wouldn't be involved. We need to get Windows on there too, we'll figure out how to monetize it later."
This is exactly what OLPC needs. Before getting too excited about it, read up on OLPC. Not only does it fail to address real educational concerns, the interface is sufficiently proprietary that these kids aren't going to learn how to use a standard GUI.
Kudos to Microsoft for supporting this platform, and hopefully Classmate PC will be able to bridge this gap with a real system. Certainly the OLPC business model is exciting and I think given the opportunity to buy a student this kind of computer would be something better for students and teachers to work with.
If Microsoft finds some way to put XP on those laptops (through governments, giveaways or otherwise), I would like to see the computer world's reaction.
The XO is designed with both hardware and software specially built for each other. I would bet that even if MS could make XP run on it, it would take ages to make all the hardware features work (mesh, changing resolution display, etc).
But the real question is: How would people react. They *know* that XP runs worse on those laptops, and that Microsoft's only intent is to make the used to Windows. Would the world really let that happen? EU would surely react to such a monopoly behavior.
I just hope that Microsoft doesn't succeed here. XO is one of the long term chances that Linux have to make a real hog at Microsoft's desktop dominance. With the source code function, the XO would also make an army of competent programmers that could help destroy the MS monopoly.
Everybody seems to be assuming that Microsoft can buy up all the machines and this isn't the case. This isn't off-the-shelf hardware and XO could easily refuse to sell.
How long would Microsoft's famous PR people be able to spin their destroying the charitable XO project? Not very long...
Nope. The XO isn't a "problem" which can be solved by throwing chairs around.
No sig today...
MS is trying to get XP on OLPC is an effort to modify XP to run on the future cheap version of the ultra mobile device, such as Asus eeePC or classmate PC. Those are the next hot seller in the PC market. If they can get XP to run on the OLPC, then MS can just modify the XP and call it something else to enter the cheap ultra mobile market. They figure if people sees their familiar OS on the new ultra cheap PC then they are more likely to buy it and MS can just make easy money.
The purpose of writing is to inflate weak ideas, obscure poor reasoning, and inhibit clarity....Calvin
Looking ate OLPC specifications http://wiki.laptop.org/go/Hardware_specification
I'd say that Microsoft will have the very hard task of running windows XP on these computers.
If XP is slow as hell on a 512Mb RAM Pentium III 600Mhz computer, what would it be on a AMD Geode 433 Mhz 256Mb RAM.
Maybe M$ wanted to say Windows Mobile 5 instead ?
That would be the various ministers of education and/or commerce or any other official in the various countries that the OLPC folks would like to import who have veto power over the project. And it won't be an arm twist, it will be a fully stocked offshore bank account.
After a time, when these countries administrations discover the fraud, these (now former) officials will have to make a run for the border and find some way to move their ill-gotten gains. We will all be receiving e-mails from them, offering us a cut of the funds if we can assist them in such a transfer by kindly sending them our bank account numbers.
Have gnu, will travel.
I read that story on the wire this morning, and noticed how it implies that "Linux" is just a "competitor" to Microsoft, as if it were just some other company providing the same type of product, but with slightly different features.
At no point does the article discuss the nature of Linux, nor the inherent advantages (and disadvantages, since it's "objective" news) of open-source.
While techies are at least familiar with the concepts of FLOSS, there's still a long way to go to get the mainstream to understand it. This article is a reminder of that.
- RG>
Hey pal, this isn't a pleasantforest, so don't waste my time with pleasantries!
"Who's arm will they twist"
They will twist and shout and bribe government officials to put a "real" OS on the systems they hand out
However: the XO comes with a bundled OS: Linux. Hmmmm, to be consistent should I not argue that the consumer should be able to choose what OS they want on their XO ?
The above is a matter of principle, not which is better or whatever.
I still don't know what I should think .... help please!
it's great that the world's largest software maker is fighting to give more options to people in need
Yep! That's their mission!
In other news, Global Warming benefits public health! according to White House flack.
you had me at #!
That's been the very successful (and arguably appropriate) strategy all along. Empower administrators who have to manage/control/procure all these devices. Lock them into the Microsoft Way. Have them invest $$$ into Tech Support, servers, back office software, etc. To Microsoft's credit, they do provide this stuff to schools at reduced price, and to Microsoft's credit, they do provide solutions to problems that large scale system administrators/CIOs have to face.
But that marketing model still feels like a pusher hooking new addicts to me at times, particularly when I see schools investing $$ into replacing an existing Apple infrastructure with a Microsoft infrastructure, "because that's what the IT people are familiar with." That's a case of the flea wagging the dog.
35 years ago (ugh, I had to say that...) I was lucky in the early days of 'student access' to play with a variety of machines, from a TOPS 10 terminal to programmable desktop calculators (this is pre-PC) It's had a major positive impact, exposure to 'more than one way to do it' is a key aspect of education, I think.
dave
More likely because a key factor in the Windows+Office+IE monopoly is its ubiquity. Remember: it's only a "de facto standard" or "industry standard" if, indeed, pretty much everyone and their grandma is inofficially accepting it as a standard, and when your program/format/whatever is subconsciously synonimous with the whole category.
.doc or .xls format.) So it becomes the de-facto format of communication, and everyone is supposed to be able to read and write it flawlessly. If you're the guy who can't read format Y, you're as much an oddball as if you were the local luddite without a phone.
.xls files." It's that kind of things tha
The way it works is like this: (very nearly) everyone uses product X (where X can be Excel, Word, whatever) with its proprietary format Y. At home, at work, etc. The effects are, in no particular order:
1. That it's taken for granted that almost everyone already knows how to work with X, but you might need to train them to use the competitors' equivalent. This is a very big factor when corporations decide to standardize on something. And, at least subconsciously, it's then a factor in what people use at home. You've already used or seen X used at work, so there's no point in wasting your time learning something else instead.
2. Because of 1, knowing how to use program X suddenly is a "skill" you might need at work. You know chances are overwhelming that, unless you're a linux admin or such, the PC at your next job will have X installed on it, and you'll be expected to know how to use it. It might even be an explicit requirement in the job ad. (Remember: training them is expensive, so you might as well hire those who already have the skills you want.)
So the maths already becomes screwed up. If product X costs, say, 500$, it already paid for itself with interest if having that skill saves you even a month of looking for a new job. Or if it lets you move to a job that pays as little as 50$ a month more than your current one, it paid for itself in 10 months flat. "But some other equivalent is free" just lost a lot of appeal in that context.
3. Because "everyone" has program X, thus they "all" can (and do) use its proprietary format Y. (See the recent linked story about even most OOo users saving in
And especially for a company, "we don't do Y files" is a big no-no. It doesn't take more than one contract lost with a big customer because you told him you don't want to install Word, to make a bigger loss than buying a retail copy of it for every computer.
This is somewhat easier to get around, since nowadays OOo does a decent job of reading _most_ office files. But, still, the more it gets taken for granted, the more you're expected to be a 100% flawless emulation, down to the 65536 bug. And it gets pointed as a show-stopper if one guy's spreadsheet uses some obscure old function or macro that you don't emulate 100% accurately.
4. Even more importantly, well, you can't have a monopoly on interchangeable separate pieces. That kind of a market can be attacked one product at a time. You want every product to depend on every other product. You want people to say, "yeah, Linux is nice, but does it run the latest version of Word?" and the like.
But to cut this long rant shorter, again, it all boils down to ubiquity. It boils down to the next manager doing any purchasing thinking "naah, _everyone_ knows how to use Windows and Word, but we'd need to retrain everyone if we installed Linux and OOo."
And in that aspect, raising a whole bloody generation of Indians and Chinese on Linux and OOo, is probably something that scares the seven shades of shit out of MS. It's the kind of thing that could lead to "nah, if we're offshoring there and/or importing workers from there anyway, we'd Linux and OOo are for free and we'd need to retrain them for Windows and MS Office." Or worse yet, to realizing, "hmm, everyone there uses ODF, don't they? I guess it would cost us more to force them to accept
A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
that the next biggest market is that from the developing nation. Because the hardware hasn't here to for been available at a cost effective price, no platform has existed for them to put their software. Because someone is solving the hardware problem, they now have a platform from which to run Windows...98. I would laugh to see Vista run on one of those machines.
We're all hypocrites. We all have hidden parts, it's the contrast between them that make us more a hypocrite than others
Given the fact that this thing contains 1GB of Flash memory, how will XP run? Given the existence of Linux and other apps, the only option I can see is if the user is forced to format & replace the OS. I can't see any way they could coexist unless MS includes a replacement 2GB+ drive...
Windows 3.1x calc: 3.11 - 3.10 = 0.00
Is it still true that the XO laptops will acquired by governments in large lots (500,000+)? If so, MS doesn't have to convince a bazillion individuals to pay the MS tax on their XO, they just have to convince the government in question to pay the tax. Would Negroponte agree to have an MS OS installed? He might if orders for 10 million units came in with the condition that barebones XP be installed. How could MS convince these governments to pay? By donating software/hardware/etc. to the developing government, something the OLPC program can't do.
I wouldn't be surprised if they worked out a "pay over time" licensing fee ($5 per year per PC for 5 years, or whatever). In year 1 the developing country can either pay 100 million for 1 million laptops, or they can pay 105 million for the same laptops with a different operating system AND they get some free hardware and software to help run the government. Of course, in year 2 they have to pay another 5 million in fees and whatever else for upgrades and/or support contracts, etc. on the "free" hardware and software, but that's a whole year away. If things get bad they can just ask for a little more in international aid. I'm sure Microsoft would put in a good word for them.
Even at significantly reduced prices selling software is like printing money because the incremental cost is so low. The OLPC program has the potential to reach millions of young users. Developing countries develop and young users grow up. Microsoft would be stupid not to try to reach these potential customers.
DD
"Can I finish? Can I finish?
Question: "so whose arms will they twist?"
Answer: the governments of countries in South America, Asia, Africa, and elsewhere that will be buying the machines.
Well, perhaps Microsoft is planning on going to the governments that buy the OLPC and mentioning that Microsoft holds over 200 patents that Linux is violating, and if they would like to protect their computer investment and not have to face a lawsuit costing millions, they should get a license for Windows and solve all their problems in one blow -- their OLPC laptops will still work, they will be in zero danger of messy lawsuits, and their children will grow up skilled in the software of modern business instead of a UI they will never see anywhere else?
It's a great and inevitable move for Microsoft -- if you buy into their vision.
Whether it's great for anyone else, well, I dunno, but Microsoft is just there to worry about Microsoft, not anyone else.
When people boot up the laptop they aren't going to see "Linux" they are going to see the GUI which happens to look very childish http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugar_(GUI) (as the target audience is children) but the typical computer user only sees the GUI and thinks how simple it is rather then using a "true operating system" such as XP, not to mention how people generally have no clue what Linux is or thinking of it solely as a server OS (I had one guy after I said that I used Linux ask me why I needed a server at home) and because Linux always seems to be "intigrated" into the hardware, most people don't know that its there, just as if you would ask someone who has a cell phone what operating system it was running they would shrug (Unless it was a Palm, Blackberry or iPhone) because people think of it as "just a phone" just like a TiVo is "just a video recorder" it is this that is hurting Linux adoption as people don't know what runs Linux, and when you show a typical American parent if you want a laptop running Linux (But all they see is a very simple GUI) or Windows which they know as an Operating system. And I bet that for the third world countries, they would just have Linux running and just download a copy of Windows to put on there.
There is no "disagree" moderation, and troll, flamebait and overrated are not valid substitutes
Is the writing on the wall? I imagine the OLPC PC scared the bejibbers out of Microsoft. What happens when ordinary people (people who only want a computer to surf the web and check their email) start to realize that for what they need a computer for, they don't need to spend a ton of money?
The price of hardware keeps falling, not just computer hardware. The 25 inch TV set (sans remote, mind you) I bought in 1978 cost me $600, and that was when my wife would take $25 to the grocery store and come home with four big paper bags (not today's wimpy little plastic sacks) full of groceries, enough food to last us both a couple of weeks. A gallon of gasoline was about sixty cents. A TV like that is less than $200 today, and has stereo sound, a flat screen, and a remote control.
What's Microsoft going to do when you can get an OLPC or equivalent for fifteen bucks?
-mcgrew
mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
kind of ass-backwards logic, but it's not the least logical argument they've ever used to support their monopoly position.
(1.21 gigawatts) / (88 miles per hour) = 30 757 874 newtons
No, no, no.
It will be _donated_ for tax-write offs and other baited incentives. Imagine: a limitless supply of $0.50 disks that command a $90 (or more - remember this is custom SW) value. Sure it'll be crippled, but it will be more than enough for zealots to continue clinging to the idea of MS's Good Side.
Why just have your cake when you can eat it too?
i believe MS will make a version of XP than can run on this laptop, then say it costs X number of dollars. Since most people that will be using this laptop will not be able to afford XP at any price above 0, MS will turn a blind eye towards full scale piracy of this version of XP to spread its use. Get'em hooked for free, just like a crack dealer, then try and charge'em up the ass when they move to a "regular" laptop somewhere down the road.
"the interface is sufficiently proprietary that these kids aren't going to learn how to use a standard GUI"
.. :)
..
How is it proprietary, it runs on Redhat, anyone can write to the specs. The interface specs are published here, so anyone can write to it, how does that make it proprietary. How does the OLPC not have a real operating system. It runs a striped down version of Red Hat linux on the Sugar OS">OLPC Human Interface.
As for a standard GUI, once kids have used a GUI then they can quickly adapt to the 'industry standard', by standard I assume you mean the Microsoft GUI, the one you have to go on £700 courses to figure out
'Kudos to Microsoft for supporting this platform', Microsoft don't want to support the platform, it want to kill it as it would mean less XP licenses sold
Re:Exactly what OLPC needs - a real operating system
davecb5620@gmail.com
Have any of you linux genius people even attempted to install the (sugar) development code for this??? Then you'd would know why they're circling...
Well, that sums it up.. ha!
Really, Microsoft shouldn't try this. The way I'm sure they see it, it exposes more people to Windows, period.
But the way I think everyone else will see it.. if they see it at all.. they'll pay for Windows XP for XO, and then wonder why it's so stripped down and shitty compared to regular Windows XP. They'll wonder why it isn't as functional as the software the machine came with for free (not necessarily because Linux is better -- it is -- but more because the XO distro was custom-designed for the XO.) I really think if this is someone's first exposure to Microsoft it may well lower people's opinion of them rather than raise it.
What they SHOULD do if they even want to try it is to port over Windows CE -- it's meant to be small, and rather than being shohorned onto this machine would find it quite spacious. But, see above -- people will wonder why it's limited compared to what's on there for free.
1) release it to bit torrent, accidentally - what up-and-coming teenager isn't going to want to dabble in the OS that runs on 90+% of desktops on major businesses around the world? Might as well bone up and get some free experience.
2) there may be a perceived demand of integration between these laptops and the governments purchasing them.
If you can run Windows XP on the OLPC, adults will be able to use them. Especially if windows can debrick stolen OLPCs.
This means that they can be stolen and resold, thereby destroying the program.
It's not that scary. Remember when Apple had the education market? It didn't translate into business dominance.
It's designed to torpedo contracts for XO's. Microsoft buys legislators who control the project and can legitimately say "but it's XP compatible." Bingo. IF the deal is done, it's done with Microsoft's OS because they've paid enough legislators off to have the project change direction. End of XO's Linux story and the XO people will be generally powerless to stop them.
Let's say for a minute that Microsoft is an option for the XO. Sure a small percentage will actually buy the license but the rest will steal it like it is done in many developing countries. Microsoft will never make good on locking-out pirated product in developing nations. They can't and they know it.
http://www.maxineudall.com/2010/02/should-economists-be-sued-for-malpractice.html
Yes. But imagine a cheap / "free" Windows on every XO -- when access to the Internet becomes more and more readily available:
;)
"That's no Storm Worm..."
Thing to understand is the order of desirability for Microsoft, from most to least:
1. People pay full price for Windows and use only MS software for all their needs.
2. People pay full price for Windows but use non-MS software (FOSS or other proprietary) with it.
3. People pay a reduced price for Windows, but are still dependent entirely upon the Windows ecosystem.
4. People pirate Windows, but are still dependent entirely upon the Windows ecosystem.
5. People pay the Microsoft tax for new PCs but use only non-MS software.
6. People buy hardware from vendors that have no dealings with MS, and use non-MS software.
They are trying to head off #6 (the least desirable for them) by offering #3. They gain significantly from this. Windows is relatively worthless if it's no longer where most (pure % wise) of the desktop software development happens. They need all these 3rd world children to grow up believing that Windows == computing. Likewise if that doesn't happen, the future no longer belongs to MS.
It's doubtful that Microsoft could encourage or coerce Negroponte to put XP on the machine, so whose arms will they twist?
Why is it doubtful? And why the loaded term coerce?
Let's come back to economic reality and suppose that Microsoft gets XP working on XO (nontrivial but not difficult) and offers a pretty good user experience—perhaps even "better" than the Linux experience (for some definition of "better" that you and I may not agree with, but someone will)? Now let's presuppose that Microsoft gives XP to OLPC for free.
Now the question is, how can Negroponte reasonably say no?
If it is free, and "better", what about the children?
Very simple - assuming OLPC can really produce and sell 1M units per annum ...
1. Spend a little money to trim and mod XP and perhaps Office. These are software that are already developed and sitting on their HDD doing nothing anyway.
2. Develop a mechanism to lock the software to run only on OLPC.
3. Set the price of this "OLPC edition" to something like $10 for OS ONLY and $20 for OS + Productivity bundle, or something along this line.
Bottom line: People pay you $10M a year to promote your products to a very targeted group of prospects.
Assuming M$ spent about $10M to make XP & Office to work on OLPC, the ROI is 12 months and after that M$ starts making serious cash while educating those kids to use their products - this is a very good deal if you ask me.
...on the biggest gift they can get: a free, open, 100% hackable and 100% connected system covering the whole world. With no security at all...
Thank you Microsoft.
This is borderline trolling here, it's obvious and well known why Microsoft wants XP on any such computing device, it's the same reason that everyone here is thrilled that it's running Linux... gaining mindset. If you learn on platform X, work with platform X, you will very likely stick with platform X. It's very simple.
Why bother selling it? Why not give it away? Let's get real, if they sell XP for the OLPC for some token amount, people will complain about it; if they give it away, people will complain about it. However, at least by selling it, nobody can charge them with trying to use their extraordinary financial capability to try to overpower a competing platform. Nobody can complain that MS is directly disregarding their shareholders.
MS has a vested interest in getting their products introduced anywhere that potential users are. It's the same interest that most in the Linux commmunity have in getting Linux introduced anywhere that potential users are. This is very transparent and obvious.
It'll be XP Crippled, and only work on these wacky laptops, but there is going to be too many of these things being given to too many kids for MS to even consider letting Linux get that about of mindshare.
And they aren't going to aim at Negroponte to pre-install this instead of Linux. They will aim at convincing the governments where these laptops will eventually be shipped to, to get the government to demand that MS's software be installed so they can interoperate with the government's newly installed MS server software.
They can't let a generation of children, eager to learn to use computers to get a better life, learn how to use and program something other than Microsoft, and to know that the majority of computers around them can run something other than Microsoft software and run well.
Just like heroin, the first hit is free, but you pay dearly for the rest of your life. And you life sucks once you take that hit.
Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
that they can get MS bloatware working on the OLPC.
Imagine trying to start MS Office Accounting 2007. It installs SQL-Server as a service just so it can run. That brings my boot time to something like 4 minutes on my 1 GB memory, Pentium-M machine. My machine thrashes just booting! I'm sure the rest of MS Office is just as bloated.
Trying to run my copy of XP in a virtual machine under linux makes the machine thrash for 15 minutes before settling down to running REALLY slowly. They're attempting the impossible, no worries.
I think the better idea is Microsoft to subsidize xp home as decreasing the price. thus mr. bill will succeed in customer retention. Windows do not have any chance against linux.
________________________________________________________
travel more. see world hotels at http://dot-hotel.com/
Thank you for pointing this out...people still keep bleating out the "pusher" myth like it was anything other than Joe Friday-era propaganda.
If you disagree, go out and ask any person you might know who has had *any* experience with illegal drugs and ask them how many times a drug dealer has made any effort to seek them (or any other customer) out. The answer will invariably be "Never". There's a reason why Lou Reed wrote a song called "I'm Waiting for My Man" and not "My Man is Waiting for Me". Drugs sell themselves, and no dealer needs to "push" anyone into wanting to purchase them.
The "pusher" myth derives from the cognitive dissonance experienced when middle American parents find out their kids have become "caught up" in drugs, and need to see little Johnny or Janie as a unwitting victim of all the other "druggie scumbags" than as (heaven forfend) willing participants, hence they must have been "pushed". /off-topic rant
Momentarily, the need for the construction of new light will no longer exist.
Perhaps they will make another lite version tied to these laptops, give it away free so they can get more people hooked enough to want to upgrade to the 'real' thing.
Even if they dont upgrade today, it gets them Microsoft the market and 'trains' the next generation to prefer windows when they become adults and start making decisions. Much as piracy actually helped them in the beginning. Microsoft thinks long term.. decades into the future
There is a lot to be said about market saturation, at any cost.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
That emulates OS, not all specific HW, so there may be (is?) a way for WinXP to distinguish from real HW, especially from XO HW. For example, VMWare will NOT run inside another VMWare VM.
I don't think the price for a *legal* copy of Windows is 'below $1' anywhere in the world. And piracy studies usually take numbers out of thin air1. I don't know much about the third world, but I lived in Mexico; even 10 years ago, most of the business software was legal; of course, people pirated everything for their home machines.
:)
1 With the air coming from their behinds
After the government buys the machines, XO can't do a thing about them. And I think MS PR guys could find several ways to spin it so it looks good (assuming that people in US and Europe give a hoot about the countries these machines are going to :)
Reality comes in different flavors.
You might want to take a look at Microsoft's Q1 returns:
Microsoft's client unit, which includes the Vista operating system released to consumers in January, posted $4.1 billion (Euro 2.8 billion) in revenue for the quarter. That's a 24 percent increase from the same period a year earlier.
Demand for Vista was especially encouraging in "emerging markets" such as Russia and China, Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell said during a conference call with analysts. In addition, demand for premium, and more expensive versions of Vista was better than expected. Microsoft shares hit six-year high on earnings report
Each of the company's five business divisions showed double-digit revenue growth. That was particularly important in the Client Div., the group where Microsoft counts Windows sales. There, revenue jumped 25%, to $4.1 billion, an astonishing gain for a mature market. Microsoft estimates that PC sales grew 14% to 16% in the quarter. The larger revenue gains came as consumers went for the pricier, premium version of Windows Vista. Microsoft Results Turn Heads
Someone out there - or 88 million someones - bought a copy of Vista, 28 million of them in the last two months. This brought $4.14 billion in revenue in the quarter, making the Vista doom mongers look a tad silly. Sales of high-end Vista SKUs were the most popular.
Office 2K7 sales were up 20 percent to $4.11 billion, while Halo 3 and the Xbox 360 generated a profit of $165 million in the quarter with 1.8 million Xbox 360 consoles sold. Vista helps Microsoft's quarterly profits rise 23 per cent
Microsoft would have to give away Office too, because Linux has Office alternatives that are incredibly powerful, useful, and free. But if MS gives the way the store like that, why would anybody buy the regular Windows and Office? And how long could MS survive on such a starvation diet?
Ok who's the first to write a nasty virus for these os?
But... the future refused to change.
I was just wondering if anybody realized that the guys who setup OLPC are themselves hoping to make lots of money?
How you say? Well for one they have tons of free advertising, and two they managed to position themselves to sell directly to 3rd world governments.
But but how can get expect to get rich running a nonprofit? Simple, their nonprofit needs to make sure it never makes money like an evil corporation would, but there is nothing that says it cannot pay its employees really really well, so if you setup the OLPC organization you could end up making a salary of say $500,000 for all of the hard work you do, the organization makes no profit or maybe even losses a bit of money, but you are rolling in it.
Respect the Constitution
I once went to a presentation by OLUG (Ottawa Linux Users Group) and they talked about the OCPL and even showed us one of the laptops and how it works. It's actually quite different then most laptops, and has a number of features that are really cool and some that I don't think XP can support by principle. The most important feature they pressed was the idea of Open Source, and being able to modify any component of the laptop (including any application, or even the OS). So basically, the laptop features a button that activates the 'Developer' view for the current program/feature being used. It then allows the user to modify this code and commit it, and thereby promoting the idea of open source development. The code will be stored using some sort of revision system so the user can go back and forth through their changes. Given that this idea is so important to the whole purpose of OLPC, and that XP will not offer source code, I can't see Microsoft being successful in this goal. If they're currently just working on getting XP to run on the hardware, its a complete waste of time, since theres a lot of other things they need to implement as well. One other really cool feature was the LCD screen that came with the laptop. When in normal lighting, you have a normal LCD screen, but when you go outside into the sun, a different lighting utility comes into use (I forget what its called), but its perfectly readable in bright sunlight, but is in only black and white.
Does Microsoft really think that people in the developing world are going to buy copies of XP in some distant future? Not on $2/day.
"I wish to God these calculations would have been made by steam." -Charles Babbage
I'd buy a dozen Windows licenses to run in Xen virtual machines at $5. I'd buy forty licenses if it were (really) open source at $80.
Instead I run Linux. Where is the profit? When I was in college, cs students could buy XP at $10. It was too much for too little then for me, and it still is.
Where is the profit? It is in the masses who need Windows and don't think $300 is too much. It's hard to blame MS for the tunnel vision of the masses.
B) Eliminate all the stupid users. This is frowned upon by society.
That is the main problem here. The developers of the project really should have thought about this before hand and used a different architecture MS can't convert an OS or applications to easily whereas GNU\Linux can, an arch such as RISC. I guess hind sight is 20/20.
They can "not sell any more machines" to the offenders.
No sig today...
The hardware in OLPC can be used as a typewriter or adding machine in a business, like most PC's. It's hard to convince a country that has hardly any PC's in the first place that all the PC's should go to an education experiment. Parents want their kids to learn Excel. So the governments say to OLPC, we'll take it if it comes with Windows. Microsoft is going to get $3 per OLPC, that's why they're working on a Windows for it.
Apple offered OS X for free, right after Mac OS X shipped for Intel architecture. So don't feel bad for Linux or the OLPC software developers. Microsoft is the standard in typewriters and adding machines.
You are so right !
The problem is that people love what they already got, so once the developping countries are hooked to a free MS-OS it will be very hard to get them off the bad habit . .
And that is when the money grabbing will start, when they need a 'real' computer they will have to buy the non-free MS-OS, and they will be eager to pay for it, just because they think that is what you need to get a computer running !!. .
Regards Drz.