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Gravity Tractor Could Deflect Asteroids

Hugh Pickens writes "A new study at the Jet Propulsion Labs shows that weak gravitational pull of a "gravity tractor" could deflect an Earth-threatening asteroid if it was deployed when the asteroid was at least one orbit away from potential impact with Earth. First a spacecraft would be crashed directly into the asteroid, similar to the Deep Impact mission that impacted a comet in 2005. This would provide a big change of direction, but in a less controllable fashion that could push the path of the asteroid into a dangerous keyhole. But then a second spacecraft, the gravity tractor, would come into play, hovering about 150 meters away from the asteroid, to exert a gentle gravitational force, changing the asteroid's velocity by only 0.22 microns per second each day. Over a long enough time, that could steer it away from the keyhole. In the simulation, a simple control system kept the spacecraft in position, and a transponder on the asteroid helped monitor its position and thus determine its trajectory more precisely than would be possible otherwise. 'The gravity tractor is a wimp, but it's a precise wimp,' said astronaut Jack Schweickart. 'It can make very small, precise changes in orbit, and that's what you need to avoid a keyhole.'"

372 comments

  1. I hrad that .... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    John Deere got the contract beating out Cat.

  2. If I buy a gravity tractor... by faloi · · Score: 4, Funny

    Do I get a nifty green hat to wear while I'm on it?

    --
    "It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education." -Albert Einstein
    1. Re:If I buy a gravity tractor... by flyingsquid · · Score: 2, Funny

      If it's a John Deere brand gravity tractor, yes you do!

    2. Re:If I buy a gravity tractor... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do I get a nifty green hat to wear while I'm on it?

      The Chinese already have a plan.

      http://web.archive.org/web/20050830003558/http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1163067.cms

  3. If they ever do this... by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I hope their simulations use doubles, not floats!

    1. Re:If they ever do this... by Z_A_Commando · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Actually, I would rather they use a consistent measurement for distance at all times. No more use of meters and feet in the same device!

    2. Re:If they ever do this... by 4D6963 · · Score: 4, Informative

      I hope their simulations use doubles, not floats!

      I know you're joking but for just the speed values if they used time increments in the order of the second then the speed differences would be in the order of e-18, which is too small for a double's mantissa. I'd rather go with long doubles, or better (I think you can achieve something like that by using a number to store the closest representable value and another one to represent the tiny difference from what it should be).

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    3. Re:If they ever do this... by gplus · · Score: 5, Funny

      I agree. They should use furlongs and fathoms.

    4. Re:If they ever do this... by jandrese · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Isn't the whole point of floating point that you store the exponent separately so you don't run into that problem (at least not as fast)?

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    5. Re:If they ever do this... by HairyCanary · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Why do they have to be limited to the precision of built-in data types? If dc can support unlimited precision calculations, the JPL can probably figure out too.

    6. Re:If they ever do this... by Z_A_Commando · · Score: 1

      A fathom is a measure of depth or line length: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fathom#Use_of_the_fathom/. Clever use of alliteration though. :)

    7. Re:If they ever do this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you talking about 64 double precision defined in IEEE 754?

      If you are, then your 11-bit mantissa will be +/- 308 (or 1022 base 2). But even a float (32 bit single precision) should have no problem with a 8 bit mantissa giving a maximum mantissa of +/- 38 (base 10).

    8. Re:If they ever do this... by Tophe · · Score: 4, Funny

      or Smoots :D

    9. Re:If they ever do this... by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yes, but if you add, say, 1.0e0 and 1.0e-18, the result may get rounded down to 1.0e0 (no change) as the real result, 1.000000000000000001, is not distinctly representable in the number of bits available. To avoid losing precision all the bits after the leading '1' (which is assumed) have to fit within the mantissa, which is of finite size. This applies regardless of the exponent, except for the special cases of zero, NaN, and infinity.

      For a problem like this one tends to be better off using fixed-point notation, with a word size large enough to represent both the smallest increment and the largest magnitude you expect to work with. That way you don't run into the case where a small increment may or may not get rounded off depending on the magnitude of the other operand.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    10. Re:If they ever do this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ugg. I just realized that I misused the term 'mantissa.' Sorry, I was stupid. Feel free to slap me if you want.

      In any case, there is no reason to measure the value to 18 digits of precision. You would only do that if you were measuring both of them from the Earth and then giving commands (which would be impossible at a timescale of 1 s unless you built detectors to the precision of those used in quantum electrodynamic or general relativity experiments). In reality, you would have your spacecraft measure the distance and velocity of the asteroid relative to itself. You would then give it its commands as needed.

    11. Re:If they ever do this... by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      Interesting, what's dc?

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    12. Re:If they ever do this... by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Perhaps, but the whole reason floating point is "good enough" most of the time is because most interactions that people care about happen between objects or forces of roughly similar magnitude. In the example you listed above, you're talking about adding an unimaginable amount of force to the equation. In that respect, it's probably alright to discount the wimpy force of the gravity tractor because it's doing effectively nothing anyway (since the force you specified is probably somewhere in the range of turning the moon into a gigantic rocket and using it to propel the asteroid.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    13. Re:If they ever do this... by ByOhTek · · Score: 1

      At that point you get into used significant figures. If they are moving at a relative 1 meter per second, chances are they won't be worrying about a +/- 1e-18, or even +/- 1e-10 variance. Chances are with the timeframes involved, 18 significant figures will be more than sufficient.

      --
      Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
    14. Re:If they ever do this... by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      It has absolutely nothing to do with the exponent (the thing you referred to as mantissa) but actually with the mantissa. A 52-bit mantissa gives you only about 17 significant (decimal) digits.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    15. Re:If they ever do this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Floats are fine, you just need to use 'em properly.

      The idea is you first calculate a coarse trajectory as your initial estimate.

      Then repeat the calculation, but this time treat all your variables as perturbations (1+x) instead of the actual values. This gives you an error term. Now subtract the error term from your estimate, and you'll get a more accurate estimate.

      Now continue repeating the perturbation calculation again, each time computing a new (smaller) perturbed error term, and each time improving your estimate until eventually it convergences.

      Floats are fine for this sort of thing if you have the right algorithm - switching to doubles only gives a few more bits of effective precision, and it's almost never worth the speed penalty.

    16. Re:If they ever do this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      It's the Unix desk calculator. The grandparent means that if an ancient Unix utility can do infinite precision math then the JPL definitely can =)

    17. Re:If they ever do this... by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It's not always insignificant. The problem mainly comes up when you're trying to accumulate something over a large number of iterations. For example, suppose your speed is the 1.0e0 term and the 1.0e-18 is your acceleration. At first it's insignificant, but over a few thousand (or million) cycles the error in the result becomes noticeable.

      You can get around the issue with approaches like the one that this AC mentioned, but that requires additional consideration up front. You have to consider the limitations of the floating-point format when choosing and implementing your formulas rather than just writing them in the most natural style.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    18. Re:If they ever do this... by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      Spoken like someone who's never implemented a N-body simulation (I have).

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    19. Re:If they ever do this... by DogAlmity · · Score: 1

      Nay, they should measure rods to the hog's head!

    20. Re:If they ever do this... by Aazzkkimm · · Score: 1

      "unlimited" isn't really possible. You'll always be limited to the amount of memory available and the amount of time it takes to compute the result.

      That being said, implementing a non-standard data type that has precision FAR beyond the standard ones is relatively easy. (Think high-school level)

      --
      Desire is not an occupation.
    21. Re:If they ever do this... by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Even then you're running into issues of scale. Assuming the the 1.0e-18 is acceleration over a millisecond period, it will take over 317 years to register one thousandth of a percent difference in the velocity. You really have to get out of human scales to get clobbered by lack of precision. That's not to say you should ignore the problem, but in practice the number of times you run into it should be low. Granted, NASA is one of the entities more likely than most to have these sorts of problems, but even then it's not that common.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    22. Re:If they ever do this... by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 1

      Modern machines support long double which gives a machine epsilon of 1e-19 or so. Since this would only be run for a few orbits rather than millions, using a software 128-bit FP library isn't out of the question either. I also believe that some IBM mainframe architectures have 128 bit FP hardware, which is plenty enough accuracy IMO no matter what you're trying to do.

      I've worked on a bit of orbit-simulation stuff - the guys who keep coming up with better symplectic algorithms are frickin geniuses. They've got 4th order integrators like Chin's Algorithm C whose error can compete with 6th to 8th Forrest-Ruth... Neat. Stuff.

    23. Re:If they ever do this... by mollymoo · · Score: 1

      You're adding this to the objects' orbital velocity, which will be of similar magnitude to that of Earth (30km/s), which makes it 23 significant decimal figures, which is 70 bits. They really are worried about a variance that small on a number that large, because those are the magnitudes of the things they are simulating.

      --
      Chernobyl 'not a wildlife haven' - BBC News
    24. Re:If they ever do this... by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 1

      Wut? Using doubles gives you more than twice as many digits of precision as floats (~15.6 vs ~6.9), and for high-accuracy astronomical calculations even that's frankly on the lower end of what'd be nice thanks to roundoff error.

      The first problem with your cunning plan: The tractor is supposed to hover 150 meters from the asteroid, but single-precision epsilon is about 10 kilometers out to Saturn orbit - no algorithm can defeat that.

    25. Re:If they ever do this... by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 1

      Sure, but the minimum separation for single precision floating point, with a 23-bit mantissa, is only about 1.2e-7 given an exponent of zero. That translates to a potential error of over 1000% of the original one-unit speed per day given the same millisecond interval. As the OP said, "I hope their simulations use doubles, not floats!" Doubles, with a 52-bit mantissa, would have an epsilon of about 2.2e-16.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    26. Re:If they ever do this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Spoken like someone who doesn't hold a degree in the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations. (I do)

      Floats are more than adequate for an N-body simulation if you use a perturbation algorithm.

      Why not give it a try and prove me wrong?

    27. Re:If they ever do this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Aye - doubles have twice as many significant bits, but the /effective/ precision in this kind of algorithm isn't that much more.

      Why?

      Because the error is also function of the step-size. And you can't just reduce the stepsize by a factor 10,000 because that would require 10,000x more computation.

      Even if you *could* decrease the step-size by that amount, you'd then have 10,000x more round-off error.

      So you end up in this uncomfortable well where increasing step-size increases approximation error, while decreasing step-size increases roundoff error.

      --------

      With regards your second concern, that's exactly why to use a perturbative algorithm in the first place. Relative to the center-of-mass of the combined tractor-asteroid system, you've got loads of precision.

      (even more if you're prepared to use a rotating co-ordinate system.)

    28. Re:If they ever do this... by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 1

      Bah, the Library of Congress is the accepted standard of measure in the scientific community.

      --
      I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
    29. Re:If they ever do this... by the+99th+penguin · · Score: 1

      That being said, implementing a non-standard data type that has precision FAR beyond the standard ones is relatively easy. (Think high-school level)

      Or just use an existing library like GNU MP Bignum Library:

      GMP is a free library for arbitrary precision arithmetic, operating on signed integers, rational numbers, and floating point numbers. There is no practical limit to the precision except the ones implied by the available memory in the machine GMP runs on. GMP has a rich set of functions, and the functions have a regular interface.

    30. Re:If they ever do this... by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      I think you fail to see the irrationality of your position.

  4. Re:Gravity Tractor = Anna Nicole ? by negRo_slim · · Score: 1

    Or 1/3rd US population ?

    Yes take 1/3rd of the US population and put them on early warning duties. It sounds as this has some pretty hefty notification requirements to be an effective scheme.

    --
    On the Oregon Cost born and raised, On the beach is where I spent most of my days
  5. How about we move this rock instead? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In a sense, you could apply the same approach, except try to modify earth's orbit, which might actually be easier...

    1. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by 4D6963 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In a sense, you could apply the same approach, except try to modify earth's orbit, which might actually be easier...

      You realise of course that the Earth is pretty much a trillion times heavier than a mankind-threatening asteroid, right? And what would you want to modify Earth's orbit for anyways?

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    2. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by Drakin020 · · Score: 1

      For starters, why would you want to change the earth's orbit?

      On top of that, if you change the earth's orbit then you change the impact risks of other asteroids.

      Perhaps if things started getting a tad hot, you could always push the earth a tad away from the sun to cool things off, and likewise when things get a bit cold, but again I'd think that modifying the earth's orbit might not be the best idea.

      --
      The greatest revenge in life is massive success.
    3. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by sm62704 · · Score: 1

      In Larry Niven's A World Out of Time they do indeed move the Earth out to Jupiter's orbit, making it a satellite of that planet.

      It would be a lot easier to move a mountain than an entire world, and moving a world would undoubtedly lead to ecological destruction.

      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    4. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by x1n933k · · Score: 1
      I'd like to modify it to get a little closer to the sun. I'm tired of these cold Quebec winters.

      [J]

    5. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by Spy+der+Mann · · Score: 1

      In a sense, you could apply the same approach, except try to modify earth's orbit, which might actually be easier...

      Didn't I see a low-budget japanese movie about this 20 years ago? Yes, they moved the Earth. With rocket engines. *rolls eyes*

    6. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by deraj123 · · Score: 4, Funny

      We are currently working on this cold issue. However, some have termed this effort "Global Warming" and have decided that it is a bad thing.

    7. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by h4rm0ny · · Score: 1


      I'd like to move it a little bit further away. I'm tired of all this ranting about global warming. Let the polar bears have their little ice floes, and I can get back to reading about something else!

      --

      Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.
    8. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about just build a Titan A.E.

    9. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      You realise of course that the Earth is pretty much a trillion times heavier than a mankind-threatening asteroid, right?

      Says you. You'll be proved wrong when an asteroid the size of Venus crosses our path. Then who'll be so smug? (Me!)

      And what would you want to modify Earth's orbit for anyways?

      To avoid the asteroid, of course.

      Then, we move the orbits of the other 7 (well, 7+, I should say) planets.

      Finally, it will be trivial to move the sun relative to all the planet(oids) to put them all back in their right orbits.

      Oh, and something about Chinese needlesnakes.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    10. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by just_another_sean · · Score: 1

      Oh sure. What could possibly go wrong?

      --
      Creationist Textbook Stickers Declared Unconstitutional by CowboyNeal
    11. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      sure, But I'll need a place to stand, you insensitive clod!

    12. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by kat_skan · · Score: 1

      And what would you want to modify Earth's orbit for anyways?

      Martian: My people worked themselves to extinction converting their planet into a navigatable space vessel, using similar technology tested and proven on another nearby planet.

      Zim: Another planet? Why would you do all that?

      Martian: Because it's cool.

    13. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by phoenixwade · · Score: 1

      I'd like to modify it to get a little closer to the sun. I'm tired of these cold Quebec winters.

      [J]

      I'd like to modify the orbit the other way - make global warming go away...

      Hey, I just had a thought, if we parked Michael Moore just behind the earth, after crashing Al Gore into the earth, just like the "Deep Impact" mission......

      --
      A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
    14. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by phoenixwade · · Score: 1

      For starters, why would you want to change the earth's orbit?

      On top of that, if you change the earth's orbit then you change the impact risks of other asteroids.

      About once a day on /. I want a mod -1 "Whoosh" - Thank you for not crossing the streams.

      --
      A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
    15. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by SBrach · · Score: 1

      You just need a lot of robots and a lot of alcohol.

    16. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by thatskinnyguy · · Score: 1

      Kind-of like the Annihilatrix used on Frisky Dingo. Two words... Global Warming.

      --
      The game.
    17. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by martinw89 · · Score: 1

      Or, you could get thousands of robots in one island and have them all expel gas at the same time. And throw a turtle on the island too; it's important.

    18. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by Bearpaw · · Score: 1
      It's not so much global warming that I object to. (As a New Englander, I wouldn't much mind shorter winters.)

      It's those pesky little potential side effects that worry me a bit, like flooded coastal cities, specie diebacks, crop failures ... that sort of thing. Annoying.

      I mean, I could stay warm during the winter by burning my house piece-by-piece, but that seems a touch short-sighted.

      (You were joking, I know. This is my jokey response.)

    19. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      Reminds me of some show I saw a long long time ago in which a crazy Canuck villain on the loose was out to destroy the Moon so that the Earth's rotational axis would be changed and Canada would enjoy tropical temperatures.

      But you could just wait 50 years for Quebec to become as warm as Florida, or even move to a decent area.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    20. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by I+cant+believe+its+n · · Score: 1

      I mean, I could stay warm during the winter by burning my house piece-by-piece, but that seems a touch short-sighted.

      No, no, it's an ok plan. I'll even help you burn down your house to keep warm.

      I am of course joking as well. I won't really burn down your house as it is generally frowned upon by the general public. (Not your house, but the act of burning houses.)

      --
      She made the willows dance
    21. Re:How about we move this rock instead? by RenderSeven · · Score: 1

      As a New Englander, I wouldn't much mind shorter winters

      Hah! Liar!! Real New Englanders scoff at spring and welcome the snow. The only real danger of global warming is shortening the snowmobile season. (Not the skiing season, which is a silly practice inflicted on us by New Yawkuhs and other Foreigners, performed on imitation snow, as a conspiracy to shorten the hunting season).

  6. Harder... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Harder...harder...too hard!

  7. Armageddon 2 by FlyingSquidStudios · · Score: 5, Funny

    Bruce Willis hovers over an asteroid for two action-packed hours!

    1. Re:Armageddon 2 by DeadManCoding · · Score: 0

      Bruce Willis can't be in the second one, he died in a nuclear blast in the first one! Besides, you'll upset Liv Tyler you insensitive clod!

      --
      "The only constant in the universe is change." - Unknown author
    2. Re:Armageddon 2 by FlyingSquidStudios · · Score: 4, Funny

      You THINK he died, but he actually hid in a refrigerator. He got the tip from his friend Harrison Ford.

    3. Re:Armageddon 2 by Aphoxema · · Score: 1

      He didn't get destroyed, he got mutated and is now Super Gravity Willis.

      --
      "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
    4. Re:Armageddon 2 by MooseMuffin · · Score: 1

      On the bright side, the GP has never seen armageddon. So while you may have corrected him, I think he's winning overall.

    5. Re:Armageddon 2 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      I think a better choice is Chuck Norris. Nothing can destroy him and he can karate kick the object out of its trajectory.

    6. Re:Armageddon 2 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Super Gravity?

      I think you got him confused with Rosie O'Donnell. Easy mistake to make.

    7. Re:Armageddon 2 by Nick+Number · · Score: 1

      He didn't get destroyed, he got mutated and is now Super Gravity Willis.

      Is he constantly orbited by Gary Coleman?

      --
      Promote proofreading. Don't mod up sloppy posts.
    8. Re:Armageddon 2 by just_another_sean · · Score: 1

      You THINK he died, but he actually hid in a refrigerator. He got the tip from his friend Harrison Ford.

      He is Hard to Kill!

      Oh wait, that's Steven Seagal. Well anyway, it escapes me now but I know there is something hard about killing Bruce Willis.

      --
      Creationist Textbook Stickers Declared Unconstitutional by CowboyNeal
    9. Re:Armageddon 2 by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      He dies hard.

    10. Re:Armageddon 2 by just_another_sean · · Score: 1

      He dies hard.

      As the GP am I allowed to say whoosh! here or is someone else supposed to do that?

      --
      Creationist Textbook Stickers Declared Unconstitutional by CowboyNeal
    11. Re:Armageddon 2 by tor528 · · Score: 1

      He's unbreakable

      --
      If I think something is funny, I will probably mod it +1 Insightful. "It's funny because it's true."
    12. Re:Armageddon 2 by Bearpaw · · Score: 1

      Cole sees him.

    13. Re:Armageddon 2 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who needs a gravity tractor when have Chuck Norris?

    14. Re:Armageddon 2 by I+cant+believe+its+n · · Score: 1

      No, the judges of slashdot can be quite grim on the premature "whooser".

      I think the general idea is to only whoosh the deserving.

      --
      She made the willows dance
  8. Man.. by drewsup · · Score: 0

    Can you imagine how much the tires go for on a gravity tracter? Those things have gotta be be Ginormous!

  9. Preliminary testing. by kwabbles · · Score: 5, Funny

    Will be done by holding monthly Gravity Tractor Pulls at the local fairgrounds, with free beer.

    --
    Just disrupt the deflector shield with a tachyon burst.
    1. Re:Preliminary testing. by pauljlucas · · Score: 4, Funny

      Will be done by holding monthly Gravity Tractor Pulls at the local fairgrounds, with free beer.

      But it'll take a while until all testing is completed because they'd only do testing on Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

      --
      If you reply, do so only to what I explicitly wrote. If I didn't write it, don't assume or infer it.
    2. Re:Preliminary testing. by Dmala · · Score: 1

      Too bad Art Arfons passed away, they could have brought him in as a consultant. He'd been building rocket-powered tractors since the '70s.

    3. Re:Preliminary testing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You will pay for the whole seat but you will only need the EDGE! (dont worry the gravity from the tractor will keep you in it)

    4. Re:Preliminary testing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Remember, you buy the whole seat, but you only need the edgggggge!

  10. Units units units by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    0.22 microns per second per day?

    What kind of lame units are those?

    How about 2.5 x 10-12 m/s^2

    1. Re:Units units units by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about (the average Slashdotter waist size) / (the time it takes for somebody to bring up "40 rods to the hogshead")^2? Those are units that everybody can understand.

  11. Sounds overly complex by sunking2 · · Score: 1

    If the first spacecraft moves it significantly why not just keep throwing those at it. If you are planning on moving this thing by the micron then the first can't be all that innacurate because you'd never be able to nudge out any drastic error. Just keep throwing the firt at it until we're OK.

    1. Re:Sounds overly complex by oyenstikker · · Score: 2

      Wouldn't it be easier (and more effective) to have something land on it once, latch on, and fire rocket boosters to move it rather than to drive next to it for a long time?

      --
      The masses are the crack whores of religion.
    2. Re:Sounds overly complex by zippthorne · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You are presuming that landing is possible. The object in question might be a loosly-conglomerated gravitationally bound pile of rocks and dust.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    3. Re:Sounds overly complex by Chyeld · · Score: 1

      Because it'd be highly unlikely that the asteroid is a perfect sphere. And since it's likely to be some weirdly shaped object with a wildly offset center of gravity, thowing things at it isn't a particularly effective means of control. Especially if you only have a limited number of things to throw at it.

      At best, you hit it spot on and it moves the direction you want.

      More than likely, you hit it off center and instead of budging it you've just caused it to pinwheel. Which has the added effect of causing it to act like a gyroscope and resist further alterations to it's vector. The more things you throw at it, the more likely the second option occurs rather than the first.

      A gravity tractor on the other hand, works regardless of the shape of the asteroid.

    4. Re:Sounds overly complex by ag3ntugly · · Score: 0

      Or, have a craft land, and use an ion thruster, which would require much less fuel than a rocket, but would be enough to push it off course if you had time.

      --
      i have a roll of electrical tape.
    5. Re:Sounds overly complex by Chyeld · · Score: 2, Informative

      Even if the asteroid is solid, and there is some 'miracle' way of anchoring the rocket to the asteroid: Landing and pushing requires the assumption that the center of gravity and the shape of the asteroid is such that you can position the rocket push in a productive manner and not just cause the rock to pinwheel or split in two.

    6. Re:Sounds overly complex by Convector · · Score: 1

      Or throw something even bigger at it. Like say, the entire Earth. That thing's huge. That would definitely knock the asteroid off course.

    7. Re:Sounds overly complex by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Arthur C. Clarke's book, "The Hammer of God," deals with this very concept. It's fiction, of course, but with a large enough rocket, it could work. As in the book, rotation of the asteroid could prevent the rocket from firing when it has come off axis or turns from the intended vector -- to that end, I suppose the "formation flight" operation proposed in the OP eliminates this problem.

    8. Re:Sounds overly complex by zippthorne · · Score: 2, Interesting

      True, however in the case of a gravity tug, your maximum useful thrust is limited by the gravitational interaction, which is limited by how close you can get. Landing takes one of the variables away, and trades it for the ones you mentioned. If it's solid, your maximum effective thrust can be very high, even if you can only use it a shorter percent of the time.

      In specific cases, landers probably would be more effective. But gravity tugs are a much better general solution, and mass-production favors general solutions.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    9. Re:Sounds overly complex by hostyle · · Score: 0

      You'll end up just rotating the asteroid.

      --
      Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
    10. Re:Sounds overly complex by vlm · · Score: 1

      A gravity tractor on the other hand, works regardless of the shape of the asteroid.

      If it's not perfectly round, gravity gradient stabilization will make the asteroid (and/or tractor) rotate anyway, until the pointy ends point at each other, more or less. And without tidal forces to damp the rotation, it'll probably keep spinning once it starts. Admittedly it won't rotate very fast.

      See the wikipedia entry:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_gradient

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    11. Re:Sounds overly complex by Arthur+B. · · Score: 1

      Who needs an ion thruster when you can have a mass drive... just accelerate bits of the asteroids.

      --
      \u262D = \u5350
    12. Re:Sounds overly complex by oyenstikker · · Score: 1

      Mass-production!? Gonna start selling them at Wal-mart?

      --
      The masses are the crack whores of religion.
    13. Re:Sounds overly complex by g0dsp33d · · Score: 1

      Its loosely bound, sounds like a good test of a fairly large bomb, preferably not nuclear unless we're sure it won't rain back down on us.

      If its a solid, then I'm wondering how effective a tractor beam will be, I'm guessing if we're worried about the asteroid and noticed it in time to do something, it will be 10^xxx the mass of the craft we send at a minimum. The beam will enact equal forces on both, and if they collide it will somewhat cancel any benefit its had. If it doesn't I can't imagine it will have much effect at all and will need tons of energy.

      Might as well teach people to tuck and cover again.

      --
      lol: You see no door there!
    14. Re:Sounds overly complex by Crispy+Critters · · Score: 1

      And assuming that it is not already spinning so fast that a controlled landing is impossible. That seems like a bigger problem. I suspect that pinwheeling is not as big a deal as you think. Even if your thrust if off-center and starts the thing spinning, it is still going to exert a force accelerating the rock. Further thrust can be in timed spurts synchronized with the rotation. It is hard to imagine that these direct thrusts (even in small spurts) would have less effect than the gravity tractor.

    15. Re:Sounds overly complex by blincoln · · Score: 1

      I had an idea like this a year or so ago, except I was thinking that the two pieces should actually be connected (via a really, really strong cable), and the end furthest from the asteroid should be sent into the gravity wells of large objects to alter the course of the asteroid.

      IE:

      1 - "Harpoon" vehicle embeds itself into the asteroid, or throws a big net around it.

      2 - "Bolo" vehicle waits until a planet or moon is within range and then heads toward it.

      3 - The gravity of the planet pulls on the asteroid via the cable, swinging it to a new course (and causing the entire assembly to spin like a baton).

      --
      "...always new atoms but always doing the same dance, remembering what the dance was yesterday." -Richard Feynman
    16. Re:Sounds overly complex by MoeDrippins · · Score: 1

      *IF* you could direct the thrust precisely at the center of mass, maybe; otherwise you just spin it.

      Too, I would suspect (but have no idea, really), that pretty much all heavenly bodies are already spinning. So you have to "time" the thrust to coordinate with the spin of the body (and/or, direct the thrust to counteract the natural spin until it's not spinning any more, but this seems more difficult than the problem this is solving).

      And, landing the sucker and then attaching to a spinning body is probably non-trivial too.

      I'm no expert, so I'm probably way off base on all this.

      --
      Before you design for reuse, make sure to design it for use.
    17. Re:Sounds overly complex by ag3ntugly · · Score: 0

      uhhh, an ion thruster IS a mass driver... -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_driver#Spacecraft-based_mass_drivers

      And to build one that would move an asteroid, the craft would have to much nearly as heavy as the asteroid or the force would move the craft a great distance and the asteroid very little. The asteroid would need to be composed mostly of iron I should think too or the electromagnets wouldn't do much.

      --
      i have a roll of electrical tape.
    18. Re:Sounds overly complex by bob_herrick · · Score: 1

      1. Find threatening asteriod
      2. Obtain Harpoon and Bolo
      3. Obtain a really, really, really, really, really long piece of cable
      4. ???
      5. Wait for it, wait for it: PROFIT!

    19. Re:Sounds overly complex by Ken+Erfourth · · Score: 1

      Why land a spacecraft on it at all? Put a couple of particle beams on the poles of the Moon, and use them to push any asteroids into safe orbits.

      Tune the beam so it is slightly greater then the diameter of the asteroid, and you get rid of the problem of spinning, or dealing with spin. Just push it with a stream of charged particles, it can rotate if it wants to. Its orbit will still change in response to force applied in a particular direction and since we're talking about microns of change, you don't need to send that much power through a vacuum--we're trying to shift it, not vaporize it.

      Since the Particle Beams wouldn't have to be that powerful, that would help allay fears of the Moon Space Weapon being seized by terra'ists and used to fry our precious bodily fluids.

      Would go along nicely with polar Moon bases for Lunar telescope installations, since the infrastructure could do double duty, and the particle beams would hardly, if ever, be used, so they would interfere with observations. Next step: Profit!

      --
      Fundamentalism is a crime against humanity
    20. Re:Sounds overly complex by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Mass production, so you can have a stockpile of the things. You don't want to have to design and build the probe when you need it. And since you don't know how much you're going to need, a lot of identical units is both more flexible and more robust than a single monster tug.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    21. Re:Sounds overly complex by Jhan · · Score: 1

      What the guy meant was to take a big-ass ion thruster, or any another kind of mass driver (for instance a linear accelerator) and mount it to the asteriod.

      Then use the asteriod for mass.

      That way you won't have to transport (most of) the reaction mass from Earth and can make the power plant larger at the same total weight.

      --

      I choose to remain celibate, like my father and his father before him.

    22. Re:Sounds overly complex by ag3ntugly · · Score: 0

      the reaction mass for a craft with an ion thruster is a bottle of compressed xenon gas or the like, which weighs much MUCH less than the tons of steel and concrete and magnets required to build a linear accelerator on or around the asteroid. I doubt there are any concrete batch plants anywhere near Apophis...

      --
      i have a roll of electrical tape.
  12. and now ... by nategoose · · Score: 1

    Que the space rednecks.

    1. Re:and now ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      After they've lined up, what then?

    2. Re:and now ... by sm62704 · · Score: 1

      "'m a space cowboy, bet you weren't ready for that! I'm a space cowboy, you know, you know where it's at, yeah yeah yeah yeah." -Steve Miller

      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    3. Re:and now ... by lilomar · · Score: 1

      "Some people call me a space cowboy. Some call me the gangster of love. Some people call me Maurice. Cause I speak of the properties of love." - Also Steve Miller

      --
      The creator of this post (Jacob Smith) hereby releases it, and all of his other posts, into the public domain.
    4. Re:and now ... by Nick+Number · · Score: 2, Informative

      Cause I speak of the properties of love.

      Pompatus.

      --
      Promote proofreading. Don't mod up sloppy posts.
    5. Re:and now ... by lilomar · · Score: 1

      Curses! Foiled again!

      I guess I'll have to kiss this guy.

      --
      The creator of this post (Jacob Smith) hereby releases it, and all of his other posts, into the public domain.
    6. Re:and now ... by Nick+Number · · Score: 1

      To be fair, "properties" makes more sense.

      Come to think of it, "porpoises" or "platypus" would make more sense than what he actually wrote. We can take it as a given that the "midnight toker" part wasn't an exaggeration.

      --
      Promote proofreading. Don't mod up sloppy posts.
  13. Keyhole - Is that a standard term? by fotoguzzi · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Could someone with the proper knowledge submit a Wikipedia article for keyhole? The word is used in the summary three times and seven times in tfa. I guess the term is here to stay.

    Thank you.

    --
    Their they're doing there hair.
    1. Re:Keyhole - Is that a standard term? by lurking_giant · · Score: 3, Informative
  14. Darn by corychristison · · Score: 2, Funny

    ... and I thought it would be more like this.

    1. Re:Darn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Yeah, but should we trust "showboat mathematics" when the fate of the Earth is at stake?

    2. Re:Darn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Like a 404 - Not Found ?

    3. Re:Darn by corychristison · · Score: 1

      I think slashdot killed it...

      It's the Bad Ass Gravity Pump from Futurama.. Episode Time Keeps on Slippin'.

    4. Re:Darn by uberjack · · Score: 1

      That's just razzmatazz. Gravitons and graviolis are key

  15. Coaxing vs Pushing by flaming+error · · Score: 3, Insightful

    How is gently pulling the asteroid with a weak gravity string more efficient than just landing the same "tractor" on the asteroid and pushing it gently but directly?

    1. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Dr.+Eggman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      maintaining an object near the asteroid would require less energy than actively pushing it away. Not to mention the possibility of asteroids that aren't solid enough to support something on its surface pushing it.

      --
      Demented But Determined.
    2. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Zocalo · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The tractor possesses mass, and therefore has a constant gravitational effect upon the asteroid (and visa versa) and the only fuel it needs to expend are the minuscule amounts necessary to keep it tracking the asteroid. The simulation shows that, given enough time, the cumulative effect of the gravitational tug can exceed that of expending all of the energy carried by the probe, whether kinetic (impact) or potential (engine burn). It's kind of like an ion engine; it's slower at first but over time it's going to leave a traditional chemical based rocket eating its space dust.

      --
      UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
    3. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      On top of that the asteroid can spin and if you want to push it in just one direction you have narrow windows.

    4. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would say its easier to make adjustments if you're not on the surface pushing directly. Simply change the position you're holding over the asteroid and change the direction of pull.

      Also if you land and push directly you'd have to push directly through the CG or you're going to start to spin the thing. The gravity tractor on the other hand always pulls on the CG.

    5. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by MyLongNickName · · Score: 3, Interesting

      expending all of the energy carried by the probe

      You have to obey the laws of physics. There is no way you will expend less energy holding your position than using all of your fuel to build up speed and crash into the sucker.

      In fact, if there is any elasticity in the collision, it it far more efficient to crash. And this does not take into account the fuel you will waste simply by having to angle your exhaust to not hit the asteroid.

      Now, the down sides to crashing are that you cannot accurately know just how much you will move the meteorite. You cannot make midcourse adjustments as you learn more about its trajectory, and as you mention, not all asteroids will be landable. Soft surface or rocky surace, and you will have wasted the lander.

      --
      See my journal for slashdot ID's by year. Mine created in 2005. http://slashdot.org/journal/289875/slashdot-ids-by-year
    6. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's much easier to pull than push when you need it to go in a certain direction. Note that when pulling by gravity, it doesn't matter which way the asteroid is pointing.

      If you were to try to push the asteroid while attached to it, you'd much more likely just spin the thing.

    7. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Facegarden · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure that's true.... It seems to me that if the two objects are just hangin out in space, any force exerted, gravitational or otherwise, would require energy from the tractor craft to maintain. If there is a constant pull between the tractor and the asteroid, that should take just as much energy to maintain as pulling it with a cable would (or pushing it, which isn't as good for the analogy, but more realistic).

      Remember, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, even if it's something spooky like gravity.
      -Taylor

      --
      Worldwide Military budgets: $2100 billion. Worldwide Space Exploration budgets: $38 billion. Really, world? Really?
    8. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by MyLongNickName · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The simulation shows that, given enough time, the cumulative effect of the gravitational tug can exceed that of expending all of the energy carried by the probe,

      So, basically, you are somehow getting more energy out of the system than you put in. This is basically the definition of a perpetual motion machine.

      Ion engines give better long-term acceleration than chemical engines because they can spit the exhaust out faster, not because there is some magical reason that slow acceleration is more efficient than fast acceleration.

      Ramming the ship into the asteroid is more efficient, but has the problem of potentially busting up chunks of the asteroid, imprecise measurements, and the inability to monitor and make adjustments as the asteroid is moved.

      --
      See my journal for slashdot ID's by year. Mine created in 2005. http://slashdot.org/journal/289875/slashdot-ids-by-year
    9. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by LSD-OBS · · Score: 1

      Thank you for saving me the time of having to remind people of Newton's Second. I'm fairly amazed that this isn't by now completely obvious to people.

      --
      Today's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why. -- Hunter S. Thompson
    10. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by CastrTroy · · Score: 1

      I imagine it's much easier to stay a certain distance from the asteroid and maintain altitude then to land on the asteroid and risk crashing, or something getting damaged in the process. If you stay above the asteroid, you don't have to worry about finding a suitable landing location.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    11. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by LSD-OBS · · Score: 1

      Whoops, retract that, I had this figured out last week at the pub -- it's because of the objects's spin that you need to use a gravitational tether. Damn you, alcohol-impaired hippocampus!

      --
      Today's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why. -- Hunter S. Thompson
    12. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Ummite · · Score: 1

      I was exactly asking myself a similar question. My main concern was if the tractor has a gravitational impact on the asteroid, the same apply for the asteroid to the tractor, and they should collide. So the tractor has to repulse itself from the asteroid. Probably if the tractor is far enough from the asteroid, any propulsor would eject matter behind the asteroid, so the force used to keep away from the asteroid would not repulse back the asteroid on the path it should not go. But, why this energy is lower than the energy that could be used if the tractor is landed on the opposite side and "pushed" the asteroid away, I really don't know. Probably the fact that landing such tractor is a lot more risky than simply being on a parallel path.

    13. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Cornflake917 · · Score: 1

      You have to obey the laws of physics. There is no way you will expend less energy holding your position than using all of your fuel to build up speed and crash into the sucker.

      I think the GP means that it takes less energy to maintain position above an asteroid then to attach it to an asteroid and then have some sort of propulsion system push it off it's original course.

    14. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      Spin.

      Most asteroids spin, and thus using a thruster will, in the long run, be negated by the spin of the asteroid. Unless the thrusters are timed to coincide with the spin, etc -- and that's assuming there are no problems with landing (well, attaching, really) to the asteroid.

      Using gravity would, almost definitely, be more precise than trying to use thrusters -- and so we could avoid the possibility of massive failure (by, say, kicking the asteroid into a different keyhole, or by causing the asteroid to break apart).

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    15. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by caywen · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Doesn't the tractor have to expend energy to maintain a fixed distance from the asteroid? Also, wouldn't the tractor gain more benefit from maintaining as small a distance from the asteroid as possible to maximize its gravitation effect? In that case, the amount of energy it would have to expend would be proportional to inverse distance squared to maintain that distance, right? Is that really less energy than landing on the thing and using one of those ion propulsion engines? Or, perhaps the benefit is in the logistics. Perhaps landing safely on the thing is much harder than maintaining a fixed distance. If that's the case, I would get it. Sorry, I didn't do any real math, this is just a from the hip question.

    16. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At the end, if you have the asteroid in a specific place going a specific speed, there is an exact amount of energy you had to use. There are no free lunches.

    17. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Bemopolis · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Another problem with direct impact vs. hovering is that the collision might not take place at the center of mass of the asteroid. Thus, some of the impact energy would be wasted adding or subtracting spin of the asteroid, which would not affect its trajectory. Additionally, some asteroids are more rockpile than solid rock. Hovering avoids the first problem and obviates the second.

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    18. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by MythoBeast · · Score: 1

      This is not true. The small object near the asteroid would be pulled towards the asteroid. The energy required to keep the small object away from the asteroid would be mathematically identical to the deflection energy imparted onto the asteroid. This is the first law of thermodynamics at work.

      The only advantage that you get is that you don't have to expend energy to stop the asteroid from spinning so you have a stable platform to thrust from. The disadvantage is that you have to move the secondary object near the asteroid and make the secondary object stop spinning before it's usable. If the object is any meaningful distance from the asteroid you're wasting quite a bit of effort getting it there.

      --
      Wake up - the future is arriving faster than you think.
    19. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You've forgotten that you have to expend fuel to avoid being pulled into contact with the asteroid. The amount of movement (under ideal conditions) is the same. The tug method has the advantage that it works with piles of gravel just as well as a hunk of iron, and oblong asteroids just as well as spherical ones.

    20. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Crispy+Critters · · Score: 1

      So, basically, you are somehow getting more energy out of the system than you put in. This is basically the definition of a perpetual motion machine.

      Not necessarily, because both are affected by other bodies. You could position the tug slightly closer or farther from the sun than the rock, and the difference in gravitational force would cause them to tend to move apart. (The center of gravity of the tug+rock system would accelerate as appropriate for its distance from the sun, which would be slightly different than the distance of the rock alone.)

      If they were in flat space outside the solar system, I would agree with you.

    21. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by mollymoo · · Score: 1

      So, basically, you are somehow getting more energy out of the system than you put in.

      The system in question is the solar system, not just the probe and asteroid. You can steal energy by changing the orbits of other bodies, it's common practice. Cassini, for example, changed the orbits of Venus and Earth to help it get to Saturn. The changes to the orbits of Venus and Earth were of course immeasurably small, so it does look rather like a "free lunch".

      --
      Chernobyl 'not a wildlife haven' - BBC News
    22. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except you are trying to change the orbit and don't need to change the energy of the orbit. If you can use your probe to steal energy from the asteroid on one part of the orbit and return it on a different part, you've changed the orbit without using energy. Of course you'll need some to move from stealing to returning positions, but not much.

    23. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by MyLongNickName · · Score: 1

      And how does this relate to the conversation in question? We are talking about whether it is more efficient to use a probe to "gravitationally tug" at another object in space versus slamming into it versus landing and pushing. Within the context of these three options, I doubt either of them are going to redirect the asteroid to Venus for the slingshot effect. And if you are, then ANY of these three methods could do so.

      --
      See my journal for slashdot ID's by year. Mine created in 2005. http://slashdot.org/journal/289875/slashdot-ids-by-year
    24. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by AlecC · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The asteroid is almost certainly spinning to some extent, and not about an axis that you wnat to push on. For a "one big thump" impact that doesn't matter, but for a steady push you would have to kill the rotation, which would probably take much more energy. The gravity tractor hangs just out of the reach of any flailing "mountains" and pulls in a constant direction.

      Th falling apart problem probably wouldn't matter for the tiny impulse suggested, but would for the "one bigh thump", whose consequences would be extremely unpredictable. By contrast, the gravity tractor is pretty precise to start with, and the longer it runs the better we know the asteroids mass and the prciser it becomes.

      This is not new news - I first heard it about a year ago. But the idea is getting critical oversight, and standing up to it, which is promising. But basically, when I heard this idea, I stopped panicing about asteroids. If we get three years warning, we can fix it. It may take Apollo-scale expenditure, but it can be done. Actually, my estimate would be lower - range $10-40 billion. Which has to be a hell of a sight better cost/benefit ration than the Iraq war.

      --
      Consciousness is an illusion caused by an excess of self consciousness.
    25. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Macman408 · · Score: 1

      You can't just land and push because it would be very difficult to push it in the right direction. You'd have to push through the center of gravity to get it to move in a straight line (rather than just making it spin). Plus, the asteroid almost certainly is already spinning, so there's not a constant location one can put a thruster and have it be pushing in the right direction. Plus, according to an article linked to from TFA, the asteroid might be little more than a pile of rubble, meaning that attaching to it (and pushing it as a whole) would be difficult.

      What I'd be interested to know is how this plan avoids negative effects from the gravity tractor: for example, to hold it a constant distance from the asteroid, the satellite would have to be using propellant. The propellant would have to be sent - you guessed it - in the direction of the asteroid. Then, the propellant hits the asteroid, and pushes it in the direction we DON'T want it to go. The net effect would probably not completely cancel out the satellite's effect, as some of the propellant would spread out and miss the asteroid, and some would change its spin - but when you're talking 0.22 microns per second, you probably want to get as much of that as possible... One could avoid this by spraying propellant out in a cone (with a large dead spot in the middle), but then you're using a lot more propellant.

    26. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

      The tractor possesses mass, and therefore has a constant gravitational effect upon the asteroid (and visa versa) and the only fuel it needs to expend are the minuscule amounts necessary to keep it tracking the asteroid.

      That bolded bit there is the truly important part, and the part that I don't understand. Gravity will pull the two together, unless there is something holding them apart. The only thing to do this with (aside from a large piece of metal, which might prove problematic) would be the fuel onboard, which would have to provide thrust opposite the direction of the gravitational force.

      Last I knew, we didn't have much onboard space vehicles that could be used to pull them, so this one will have to provide a net thrust towards the asteroid, to keep itself away. Of course, if there is any interaction by this thrust with the asteroid, it will start to counter the effect of the gravity. So now, as another poster pointed out, you have to waste fuel by shooting it out at angles around the craft so that the net cancels out the parallel movement, and the perpendicular amount adds up to equal the gravity, all without hitting the asteroid.

      I truly fail to see why using that same fuel to push it would not be far more efficient, and far less complicated. I think that we're pretty well skilled in pushing things in space. It's done all the time.

      Of course, if there is a high rate of rotation this might not be easy, but we're also good at slamming things into other things.

      I really don't understand why an overly complicated and rather unique and untried solution would be favored over the alternatives.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    27. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by avandesande · · Score: 1

      Not to mention that crashing will require less fuel because the sooner you push the asteroid the more time it has to move out of the keyhole. It will require less sudden push than a small push over a period of time.

      --
      love is just extroverted narcissism
    28. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by mollymoo · · Score: 1

      In the tugging and smashing and pushing options there will be gravitational interactions with other bodies. I wasn't suggesting a space-probe-style close flyby as an alternative to those three options, merely pointing that such energy exchange happens. You seem to think any difference in the end result between tugging, smashing and pushing would represent free energy or perpetual motion, which completely ignores energy exchange with other bodies through gravitational interactions. Those interactions will not be identical in the tugging, smashing and pushing scenarios and nor will the final outcome.

      --
      Chernobyl 'not a wildlife haven' - BBC News
    29. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by anorlunda · · Score: 1

      There are even more differences. To use a gravity tug, or to orbit the object, or to land on the object, or to harpoon it, all require use of fuel to match the object's position and velocity vector. The probe needs to accelerate to get to the object and then to decelerate or perhaps even reverse direction to match velocity with the object.

      A collision does not need to waste fuel for that purpose, and the savings could be used to transfer more kinetic energy change to the object. However, for maximum effect a collision must hit from a direction normal to the path of the asteroid. Depending on the particulars, it may or may not take a lot of fuel to maneuver in from the normal direction.

      If the gravity tug is attractive, I suspect it is because it could use a low thrust engine over a period of years to more efficiently convert fuel mass to K.E. than a high thrust engine could. Otherwise, a collision approach would sound optimal.

    30. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Thing+1 · · Score: 1

      The tug method has the advantage that it works with piles of gravel just as well as a hunk of iron, and oblong asteroids just as well as spherical ones.

      And rotating asteroids just as well as non-rotating ones. (I.e., were we to attach and thrust, we would either have to slow the rotation, or only fire when we're "under" the asteroid.)

      --
      I feel fantastic, and I'm still alive.
    31. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by MikeUW · · Score: 1

      What if the asteroid is rotating...maybe very fast...maybe on multiple axes? Isn't quite so simple then I don't think.

    32. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by Provocateur · · Score: 1

      Can it have the words

      'Yippee Ka yay Moth** ****er'

      painted in big bold letters on the sides?

      It *could* make NASA more, like, hip or something.

      --
      WARNING: Smartphones have side effects--most of them undocumented.
    33. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      And if we were to nuke it, we might get different results depending on what orientation it was in.

    34. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by captainpanic · · Score: 1

      Doesn't hovering near an asteroid mean that you point your exhaust towards that piece of rock? While you attract it by your massive gravity pull (caused by your one ton of mass), you push it away with your exhaust gases that crash into the asteroid. I think we need to install an international committee to investigate the procedures and then install a subcommittee to discuss whether the standard laws of physics are allowed to obstruct the original plan. We might have to sue Newton.

    35. Re:Coaxing vs Pushing by mathtick · · Score: 1

      Isn't the point that the coaxing can be dynamically controlled and thus allows for greater precision?

      The 'keyhole' that they are talking about must actually be in phase-space (position-velocity coords, not just 'space'-space). The earth-collision trajectories and the accesible non-collision trajectories are probably close together in phase space. The initial collision is somewhat unpredictable so there's a risk of making things worse ... plus secondary collision adjustments are going to be quite hard since the object has moved in an unpredictable way and the path that you picked a few years ago may be way off. Cleverly matching the asteroids post-collision trajectory seems like the most robust thing to do.

      Those are just my quick guesses as to what's going on.

  16. nukes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    and what do we do when they mess up the calculations and we turn a near miss into an impact.

    For a backup plan please use nukes.

    1. Re:nukes by eclectro · · Score: 1

      I agree. As a backup plan, we need to be ready to ram a nuke in the keyhole.

      --
      Take the cheese to sickbay, the doctor should see it as soon as possible - B'Elanna Torres, "Learning Curve"
    2. Re:nukes by 1729 · · Score: 1

      Nukes are better suited for the primary plan:

      https://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/343984.pdf

      However, simply blowing up the asteroid at the last minute (Armageddon-style) won't help much.

    3. Re:nukes by halsver · · Score: 1

      Would one or more nuclear explosions affect the orbit of a dinosaur-killer very much? Steering by explosion if you will.

      --
      Roughly half my comments are never submitted. You may be reading the better half...
    4. Re:nukes by 1729 · · Score: 1

      Would one or more nuclear explosions affect the orbit of a dinosaur-killer very much? Steering by explosion if you will.

      Yup, that's the idea. If the asteroid is detected early enough, the orbit doesn't even need to be altered dramatically to avoid a collision. It might be sufficient to simply to use energy from the blast to heat one hemisphere of an asteroid, which will result in a change in velocity.

    5. Re:nukes by hostyle · · Score: 0

      If it doesn't have a sexual reference, Hollywood will never make a movie out of it.

      --
      Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
    6. Re:nukes by g0dsp33d · · Score: 1

      What if we use our entire arsenal in the last 50 miles or so to create an explosive cushion between the earth and the asteroid?

      --
      lol: You see no door there!
    7. Re:nukes by steveo777 · · Score: 1

      Then in stead of a large rock hitting us we just get a large puddle of radio-active rock splashing us.

      The earlier the better. Waiting for the last minute to exhaust a supply of nukes on one final hurrah should be just that. A last ditch effort to save this planet.

      --
      This sig isn't original enough, it's time to come up with something witty...
  17. that's what you need to avoid a keyhole by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    or to hit one.

  18. Um, dumb question time by smooth+wombat · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If all they're trying to do is move the orbit of the asteroid by a fraction or a millimeter per second, wouldn't it be easier to just, you know, harpoon the asteroid and use ion engines to gently pull on it rather than trying to keep a second spacecraft hovering over the non-smoking crater of the first spacecraft? Or, if harpooning isn't viable (cue 'Whalers on the Moon'), just have the spacecraft rest on the asteroid's surface and, using ion engines again, push on the thing.

    Can someone more well versed in orbital mechanics and the motion of bodies in space please provide some information as to why these are not viable options.

    --
    We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
    1. Re:Um, dumb question time by Colonel+Korn · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If all they're trying to do is move the orbit of the asteroid by a fraction or a millimeter per second, wouldn't it be easier to just, you know, harpoon the asteroid and use ion engines to gently pull on it rather than trying to keep a second spacecraft hovering over the non-smoking crater of the first spacecraft? Or, if harpooning isn't viable (cue 'Whalers on the Moon'), just have the spacecraft rest on the asteroid's surface and, using ion engines again, push on the thing.

      Can someone more well versed in orbital mechanics and the motion of bodies in space please provide some information as to why these are not viable options.

      Orbital mechanics aren't the problem with your suggestion. Consider getting a craft to gently land on an asteroid. That's probably equivalent in difficulty to having a craft maintain its position 150 meters from the asteroid, as suggested in TFA. Already the lander has had about as much complexity as the "hoverer."

      Now consider that the object must pull or push the asteroid along a very specific and consistent trajectory to safely move it out of danger. Remember that the asteroid is certainly spinning about two axes, so an object stuck to the surface would not be able to simply face in one direction and push. The craft hanging out 150 meters from the asteroid ignores the spinning and does its job, while the craft on the surface of the asteroid has to either push really hard every once in awhile, when its trajectory happens to be lined up well, or it has to constantly push and angle its exhaust while continuously calculating the correct direction to maneuver the spinning object correctly. Or it could cease the asteroid's rotation, which itself is a difficult problem.

      --
      "I zero-index my hamsters" - Willtor (147206)
    2. Re:Um, dumb question time by the_other_chewey · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Or, if harpooning isn't viable (cue 'Whalers on the Moon'), just have the spacecraft rest on the asteroid's surface and, using ion engines again, push on the thing.

      One word: Rotation.

      If you put an engine on the asteroid, you cannot use it about half of the time (very roughly, probably way less)
      because it would be pushing in the wrong direction.
      Hovering decouples your applied force from the rotational movements of the asteroid, so as long as you manage
      to hold your position on the right side of the asteroid, the force is applied constantly.

      So a gravity tractor can apply the same delta-v faster than a "ground based" solution.

    3. Re:Um, dumb question time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree with you, however they better make sure the surface of the asteroid relative to the asteroid doesn't vary by more than a couple hundred meters - it would suck to have a "mountain" on that asteroid swat the hoverer as the mountain swung by.

    4. Re:Um, dumb question time by verbamour · · Score: 2, Funny

      It's not orbital mechanics, but asteroid mechanics that come into play. An asteroid may be a loose gravel pile, so an engine placed on the surface may dig in, or even push all the way through. Gravity traction is a very low-stress way to impart momentum.

      I'm not a rocket scientist, but my hot girlfriend's little sister is...

    5. Re:Um, dumb question time by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      harpoon the asteroid

      And the last time any member of the human race has harpooned something in space was precisely when?

      We have the technology to meet up with and orbit an asteroid. Harpoons might have to come later. This is rocket science after all.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    6. Re:Um, dumb question time by hostyle · · Score: 0

      I'm not well versed in it, but does a rocket fired on earth significantly alter the earths orbit / trajectory? No. It depends on the size of (and force exerted by) the ship relative to the asteroid, but if its shuttle sized or close (ie. easy to get out of our atmosphere and fly through space) I don't think it'll be able to strap on and do much pushing of any worth (bar perhaps rotating the asteroid on its axis).

      --
      Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
    7. Re:Um, dumb question time by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Harpooning a pile of gravel is fairly easy. Subsequently pulling on the harpoon generally doesn't have the effect you'd like.

    8. Re:Um, dumb question time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      IOW: Your "girlfriend's" little hot sister?

    9. Re:Um, dumb question time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Asteroids tumble, you don't really know what they are made of.

      I think a better solution would be building up the probe's momentum with ion engines, and after a period transfer it to the asteroid. Probably easiest way to do that would be to shoot at it.

      Another way would be to have a ion stream directed at the asteroid (far as i know, they can be quite precise) and another in the opposite direction to balance the probe.

      I agree with their ideea of small impulse long time, but there are better ways of doing it then just gravity. After all, the energy must come from somwehere - probably from the positioning engines - and there are much better transfer methods then just gravity.

    10. Re:Um, dumb question time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Winner! Congratulations on actually knowing a bit about the subject matter.

    11. Re:Um, dumb question time by verbamour · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that too...

    12. Re:Um, dumb question time by Idarubicin · · Score: 1
      Briefly, neither harpooning nor landing (followed by continuous thrust) work if the asteroid is rotating at all. A cable gets all twisted and the lander might only be pointed in the right direction for a small fraction of the asteroid's rotation period.

      Both of those solutions also assume that the asteriod's surface has sufficient mechanical strength to hold a harpoon or a thrusting lander. What do you do if there's an icy crust that breaks up when you harpoon or land? What if you land in a crater at a funny angle? What if your craft sinks out of radio contact with its ground station? What if there's appreciable outgassing as the asteroid warms near the sun, and your lander or harpoon gets blown off?

      The gravity tractor works regardless of what the asteroid is made of, how it tumbles, and what shape it has.

      --
      ~Idarubicin
    13. Re:Um, dumb question time by I+cant+believe+its+n · · Score: 1

      And the last time any member of the human race has harpooned something in space was precisely when?

      I believe you are refering to Armstrongs "Moby-Dick" incident.

      --
      She made the willows dance
    14. Re:Um, dumb question time by ArsonSmith · · Score: 1

      one word, Pole.

      place them at the pole. Speed up the asteroid or slow it down. Deflect it another way. If we're talking the micro gravity of a space craft hovering next to it then the change really doesn't have to be that much, and it doesn't even really have to be in a specific direction. If one moving object is on a collision course with another moving object then a change in almost any direction will avoid that collision.

      --
      Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
    15. Re:Um, dumb question time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Another problem: the surface of the asteroid isn't all that solid. We're all used to firmly-packed ground on Earth, where it's got all this gravity to keep it that way, but an asteroid is a sack of rocks held together only by a very tenuous gravitational field.

    16. Re:Um, dumb question time by p3d0 · · Score: 1

      Small bodies often don't orbit around a single stable axis. Check out Hyperion for instance.

      --
      Patrick Doyle
      I mod down every jackass who puts his moderation policy in his sig. Oh, wait a sec....
    17. Re:Um, dumb question time by mlush · · Score: 1

      'the_other_chewey' has an excellent point about rotation being a problem in landing a ship on the asteroid. I'd also suggest that the asteroid may be too fragile to take the strain of being pushed on one single point and could break up. The gravity tug provides a gentle even pull on the whole asteroid so would work on all types of asteroid without prior knowledge of its structure.

  19. Keyhole? by Sockatume · · Score: 1

    I'm glad I already read this story and understand the metaphor, because the summary is rather unintentionally surreal otherwise.

    --
    No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    1. Re:Keyhole? by pilgrim23 · · Score: 1

      Keyhole was the code name of the KH series of spy satellites.

      As to the concept itself: what of the Enviornmental Impact statement (if it hits)? What of its carbon footprint (If it hits)?

      Also, as I recall, the last body that could have posed an issue was discovered on its way AWAY from Earth after its close encounter. There are so many of these in orbits never before tracked that our first clue of a problem may be after a rock lands where India used to be...

      --
      - Minutus cantorum, minutus balorum, minutus carborata descendum pantorum.
    2. Re:Keyhole? by courteaudotbiz · · Score: 1

      after a rock lands where India used to be...

      Why do you specify India? Is that your secret dream to eliminate all those ISPs and Linksys call centers?

  20. How does this scale? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As I understand it, they used a hypothetical asteroid measuring ~140 meters in diameter. The Apophis asteroid measures ~1000 ft in diameter. As I understand it the mass scales as well so, outside of launching something exponentially heavier, how does this solution scale?

    Not that I don't believe in NASA, I am actually applying for a job at JPL this fall.

  21. Confirmation? by Wiarumas · · Score: 1

    From TFA: "...it would exert a gentle gravitational force, changing the asteroid's velocity by only 0.22 microns per second each day. But over a long enough time, that could steer it away from the keyhole..."

    So... would there be confirmation that this plan is working when attempting it? Honestly, with a miniscule (and possibly undetectable) amount of 0.22 microns and such a large amount at stake (olbiteration), I would want to know if Plan A is working and if Plan B should start.

    --
    I will bend like a reed in the wind.
    1. Re:Confirmation? by cnettel · · Score: 1

      What are you expecting, really? We will know if the ship is in place, we will know if its thrusters are firing. We can trust Newtonian mechanics. In addition, with suitable equipment on the asteroid, it would actually be doable to get micron-level laser distance measurements. (A firing thruster would upset it quite a bit, eh, to say the least, but over a month or so it should be possible to see the trend.)

  22. How to not get splattered by Jhan · · Score: 2, Interesting

    TFA spells it out very nicely. Get there one orbit early (a year or a little longer) then gently tug. Of course that's for a small asteroid, for a dinosaur killer maybe five years. If you wait until the object is a few weeks away you are toast. Cindered toast. The entire "nuclear might" of the planet launched at the intruder will do diddley squat, Bruce Willis or no Bruce Willis. That's why NEAR should get lots more funding.

    --

    I choose to remain celibate, like my father and his father before him.

    1. Re:How to not get splattered by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      That's why NEAR should get lots more funding.

      Maybe I'm not up on my acronyms, but if they point is to discover asteroids years in advance so that we have time to change their course before we are obliterated, wouldn't it make more sense to be funding FAR?

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
  23. OT: Orbit@Home is now NASA-funded by Burz · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Its probably a good time to remind people that the distributed computing project to search for dangerous NEOs is soon to get under way. Test workunits have already been sent out and the news is that they ran very well.

    1. Re:OT: Orbit@Home is now NASA-funded by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Test workunits have already been sent out and the news is that they ran very well.

      Wait - what? Isn't the definition of running well for this system that they find dangerous NEOs? How is that a good thing?

    2. Re:OT: Orbit@Home is now NASA-funded by jb.cancer · · Score: 1

      Its probably a good time to remind people that the distributed computing project to search for dangerous NEOs is soon to get under way.

      But isn't the 6th Neo supposed to save us once and for all?

  24. pint sized by rubycodez · · Score: 1

    That's a very small asteroid they're modeling, wake me up when they can do something about the mile-wide ones

    a few megatons TNT of impact energy won't do much on most of the earth's surface, likely hit nothing important

  25. I hate to accuse JPL of forgetting something... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 0

    but apparently they did.

    In order for the "gravitational tractor" (GT) to keep pulling the object out of its current path, the GT would have to be ejecting reaction mass toward the object it was supposed to be pulling... thus pushing it away. Unless it was MUCH larger than the object it is supposed to be pulling, in which case it could eject mass to either side. Which seems unlikely.

    Perhaps there is some small angle it can thrust at that does not impact the object while still pulling it away... but that seems like an even more unlikely balancing act.

    1. Re:I hate to accuse JPL of forgetting something... by trongey · · Score: 4, Informative

      Who modded the parent "insightful". The answer is pretty simple, and is even illustrated in the article. The picture shows a craft with three thrusters all angled away from the asteroid. The resulting thrust is a vector normal to the target. Sure, it sacrifices efficiency, but it works.

      --
      You never really know how close to the edge you can go until you fall off.
    2. Re:I hate to accuse JPL of forgetting something... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Two propulsion engines at an angle of say 15 degrees, each pointing 7.5 degrees away from the asteroid. You do lose some fuel efficiency that way, but at least this problem does not occur.

      As simple as that.

      And landing or harpooning is usually not an option, because asteroids tend to:
      1) rotate
      2) break apart during transit through our solar system (especially if they pass by close to the outer planets)

    3. Re:I hate to accuse JPL of forgetting something... by ag3ntugly · · Score: 0

      If it has several small thrusters, each pointing out not directly at the object, but say at 45 degree angles to the object in a conical sort of fashion, each applying the same force, with the tractor at the point and the object inside the cone, the forces applied by the thrusters (my physics teacher would be proud that i remembered all this business about vectors) will add up to an overall force on the tractor directly away from the object, while not applying an opposing force on the object.

      --
      i have a roll of electrical tape.
    4. Re:I hate to accuse JPL of forgetting something... by Wavebreak · · Score: 1

      The scenario you're describing is so mind-numbingly trivial to avoid that even I could do the math involved.

      --
      Nobody expects the British Columbia Human Rights Tribunal.
    5. Re:I hate to accuse JPL of forgetting something... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The image with the article seems to suggest three ion engines all angled away from the asteroid.

    6. Re:I hate to accuse JPL of forgetting something... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unless I missed your point, you missed TFA's point. The tractor 'pulls' via gravitational attraction - gravity. No thrust necessary.

      Maybe it will need thrust occasionally to readjust itself? But why would it have to eject mass toward the asteroid to move away from it?

            tractor
              /
          \/ *asteroid
      away

      imagine in 3d.....

  26. You stand at the bridge of space travel... by CFBMoo1 · · Score: 1

    What is your name?

    Joe Q. Scientist.

    What is your mission?

    To capture an asteroid.

    What units of measure were used in the mission?

    English... no metric!

    *KABOOM!*

    --
    ~~ Behold the flying cow with a rail gun! ~~
  27. Bah. Just Nuke It. by aquatone282 · · Score: 1

    I wanna watch from my front yard at night while drinking cold beer with my neighbors.

    --
    What?
  28. Dupe by Thelasko · · Score: 3, Informative
    --
    One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
  29. Bad idea by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

    Next thing you know, bugs from Klendathu will throw rocks at us too.

  30. Obligatory Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy quote by Yvan256 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Barman: Do you really think the world's about to end?
    Ford: Yes, in just over 3 minutes and 5 seconds.
    Barman: Well, isn't there anything we can do?
    Ford: No. Nothing.
    Barman: I thought we were supposed to lie down, put a paper bag over our head or something...?
    Ford: Yes, if you like.
    Barman: Will that help?
    Ford: No. Excuse me, I've got to go.
    Barman: Ah, well. Last orders please!

  31. Screw the asteroids tracking systems by Yvan256 · · Score: 3, Funny

    We should be watching to see if the dolphins leave the Earth by their own means.

    1. Re:Screw the asteroids tracking systems by Farmer+Tim · · Score: 1

      We should be watching to see if the dolphins leave the Earth by their own means.

      Because if they don't it will prove that they're just big, dumb cute fish*. Or were, in 5...4...3...

      *Yes, I know they're not fish.

      --
      Blank until /. makes another boneheaded UI decision.
    2. Re:Screw the asteroids tracking systems by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's no good - by the time they leave, it'll be too late.

      Besides, we'd only think they were trying to jump through a hoop anyway.

    3. Re:Screw the asteroids tracking systems by garompeta · · Score: 1

      Save the Cheerleader, save the world!

  32. I've got another way by Sodki · · Score: 1

    It can make very small, precise changes in orbit, and that's what you need to avoid a keyhole. Actually, to avoid a keyhole, you just have to get drunk.

  33. Sounds like... by acedotcom · · Score: 0

    Armageddon 2: Space Farmers

    --
    they say it is often more relevant then the comment above, all we know is its called the Sig!
  34. Hypothetical Question by arizwebfoot · · Score: 1

    So . . . the tractor pulls the asteroid into a new orbit, causing it to slam into another asteroid of equal size, causing them to to split into eight equally large pieces for whose trajectory is now altered to collide with the earth.

    Time to buy a lot of shares at the Tractor Supply Store.

    --
    Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.
    1. Re:Hypothetical Question by BlackSnake112 · · Score: 1

      Better idea. pull the asteroid into a near Earth orbit. Then mine it for useful materials. When mined out,, "pull" it into a Jupiter or Sun crossing orbit. Pull next asteroid into near Earth orbit.

      Now to tell which asteroids have stuff we want in them. Think of the global warming when Jupiter becomes the second start in our solar system after enough mass (the asteroids) is dumped into it for ignition.

  35. Re:Bah. Just Nuke It. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ah Nukes, the redneck answer to all questions regarding earth crossing asteroids AND rouge terrorists/nation states.

  36. Opportunity to Weaponize by garnkelflax · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If it can be guided away from the keyhole, could it not also be guided towards? I think this presents a wonderful opportunity for extortion. If I only had the resources I would shave my head, get a cool chair, and become adept at holding my pinky to the corner of my mouth in an evil fashion.

    1. Re:Opportunity to Weaponize by maxume · · Score: 1

      Only worth it if you enjoy life in the mountainous caves of Pakistan.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    2. Re:Opportunity to Weaponize by Bearpaw · · Score: 1

      Or dividing your time between Number One Observatory Circle and Mount Weather in Virginia ...

  37. Microns... by tjstork · · Score: 1

    A micron is a unit of length, not velocity. Do they mean microns per second?

    --
    This is my sig.
    1. Re:Microns... by jagdish · · Score: 1
      From the summary:

      changing the asteroid's velocity by only 0.22 microns per second each day

    2. Re:Microns... by scorp1us · · Score: 0, Troll

      only 0.22 microns per second each day

      It helps to read all the words.

      This would equate to 1.9cm a day, which is a lot, when you factor in that the earliest adjustments result in the widest changes. It is also worthy to note that by delaying or hastening the asteroid a mere 5 minutes would take a global killer to a near miss.

      --
      Slashdot's rate-of-post filter: Preventing you from posting too many great ideas at once.
    3. Re:Microns... by Urkki · · Score: 1

      0.22 microns per second per day, which in more familiar units is
      2.5462963 * 10^-12 m / s^2 .

  38. Exhaust is not a pencil beam. by zippthorne · · Score: 1

    And depending on the distance (though further away poses problems for the gravity-part) the object can subtend a small portion of the exhaust "pattern."

    Further, directly above is not the only option. Halo orbits of a single body require constant thrust to maintain, which is actually quite ideal for the situation at hand: allowing the gravity tug to get closer to the center of mass (cos(phi)/r^2 is better than 1/r^2 when you can have a smaller r) and keep the body out of the way of the preferred thrust direction.

    --
    Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  39. Tell me more! by Technopaladin · · Score: 1

    hated the movie
    But the book was good. I am a 15 second bomb, I am 14 second Bomb...

    1. Re:Tell me more! by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      From what I heard, the director hated the book so the movie turned out as a somewhat serious parody. That's why things are so exaggerated in the movie and is one of the main reason why so many people hate it.

      Once you know that, IMHO it's a great sci-fi/action movie with over-the-top characters and situations.

  40. Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Gravity Tractor? You know I love these sky high fantasy ideas to deflect asteroids as much as anyone else but shouldn't we be concentrating on what is real? If an asteroid does threaten Earth in the next few years we will use nuclear demolitions on it. We will not use a gravity tractor, laser beams, or giant snow balls. Nor will we attach plasma engines or mass drivers to it. We will use nuclear demolitions because that is, simply, all we have.

    We will not send a robot to do it nor will we send some type of futuristic space ship driven by plasma/ion engines. It will be a manned ship with old style chemical rockets right out of the '60. Why? Because we have over 60 years experience with them and they will get the job done. We'll send men and not a robot because the mission is to important to have place in the hands on questionable technology. A robot breaks down and the mission is over. With men at least you have some hope they can fix it. Yes, it will probably be one way but the pilots will know that. They will go anyway.

    Yes, we will break it up in to smaller pieces because that is best. Don't give me that shotgun crap about it scattering the damage over a wider area. We will think of that and cover it. If we let a huge honking rock ride in the atmosphere will not even slow it down. It will punch through it like it isn't even there. Worse is it will punch through the crust to the mantel causing shockwaves all around the planet.

    We wont' use one nuke. We will blowup the big one then we will blow up the smaller ones into smaller pieces. We will do this until the chunks are small enough that the atmosphere will handle. With smaller chunks there is more surface area for the atmosphere to work on. Most importantly the smaller chunks will not "crack the crust" as one fat ass one would.

    --

    Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    1. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by smoker2 · · Score: 1

      You forgot :
      "And no, I am not an astro physicist !"

    2. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by 1729 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Gravity Tractor? You know I love these sky high fantasy ideas to deflect asteroids as much as anyone else but shouldn't we be concentrating on what is real? If an asteroid does threaten Earth in the next few years we will use nuclear demolitions on it. We will not use a gravity tractor, laser beams, or giant snow balls. Nor will we attach plasma engines or mass drivers to it. We will use nuclear demolitions because that is, simply, all we have.

      [...]

      We wont' use one nuke. We will blowup the big one then we will blow up the smaller ones into smaller pieces. We will do this until the chunks are small enough that the atmosphere will handle. With smaller chunks there is more surface area for the atmosphere to work on. Most importantly the smaller chunks will not "crack the crust" as one fat ass one would.

      Blowing up an asteroid isn't necessary, and with only a couple of years' notice, it isn't very effective, either. For details, see:

      https://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/343984.pdf

      Nuclear explosives are a good tool for this job, just not in the way that you think they are.

    3. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by cnettel · · Score: 1

      You realize that no human has been beyond LEO (more or less) for over 30 years? We DO have the technology to whip up something similar to Deep Impact, or Rosetta, or Deep Space 1, rather quickly. And, frankly, that's all it takes. A reprogrammed ICBM might also makes sense, but a manned mission does not.

      We have lots of ICBMs to expend if the first one fails, and the biggest concern with that approach (ignoring the "many small, but still huge" chunks one, which is quite important) is still the risk for failure during launch or soon after liftoff. A manned mission won't solve that aspect.

    4. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      You realize that no human has been beyond LEO (more or less) for over 30 years? ... We have lots of ICBMs to expend

      Don't take this the wrong way but that first comment sounds like an excuse to me. My repose is "so." Even if we had never been beyond LEO we would go because we have no choice. The results of not going are total end of everything. We'll go and we'll send manned ships. Several manned ships. And we'll do it because there is no other choice.

      ICBMS won't work. They are ballistic weapons. They don't have the steering jets that would require them to change course in space. That old '70 movie where they used them is bullshit.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    5. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Not completely but I know enough to know the difference between a rifle slug and a light scattering of small buckshot from a distance.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    6. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Were you a writer on Armageddon? That stuff will play in Hollywood, but it doesn't work so well in real life.

    7. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Yeah, was expecting an answer like that. Okay, wise ass, what is your plan? Pull a solar sail out of your ass or a gravity tug, or a mass driver. You can't because they don't exist.

      And you missed the whole point of my comment. We can't use fantastic technology like this because we can't. We don't know how. We have theories but that is all they are. We have nukes and rockets, and that is it. We don't know anything about attaching solar sails to rocks in space. An granted, we don't know much about blowing them up with nukes. But we know more about the latter than the former.

      That movie maybe Hollywood BS right now but its closer to reality than solar sales and gravity tugs.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    8. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 1

      For the record, if you're worried about reliability, robots still beat out humans. We've never sent humans that far before and for the same cost, we could build and send many robots to do the job. Even with a 50% failure rate, it would probably still be cheaper and faster to go with the robots. And robots can be fixed (many have been) and not every human-mission failure can be recovered (see: Columbia and Challenger, for example). The reason that human missions have a better statistical record is not because the people aboard can fix all the problems as much as because we spend WAY more money and time on human mission than robots making more certain that problems don't kill our astronauts. In a pinch situation, that would go out the window anyway.

      And don't dismiss the shotgun effect if you don't understand it. That many smaller bodies entering our atmosphere, even if they burn up, would deposit their kinetic energy-turned-thermal into the air leaving Earth under a atmospheric broiler. This effect (with the debris being lofted from the ground rather than directly entering from space) is probably what did a substantial chunk of the damage in other impact events (including the K-T) based on available evidence.

      Also, where did you get the idea that a consolidated asteroid would punch through to the mantle? I suppose a *really* big impact might do it, but it'd be unusually huge to make that kind of dent. I'm skeptical that anything that big would notice our nukes (or a gravity tractor) anyway. In that case, we're already boned.

    9. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      But apparently not enough to know the difference between Tsar Bomba and a MIRV warhead.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    10. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      That is why we would send several teams on separate ships. It's that eggs in the one basket thing again. You know that really bad movie with Bruce Willis in it that people like to drag up about shit like this? Remember what happened in the end? Something fucked up. If you send robots, even hundreds of them, and you encounter something that they are not prepared / designed for then its game over. With manned missions you have a second chance. There is always that chance that someone who is on the spot maybe able to fix the problem. With robots you don't' have that chance.

      I fully understand the shotgun effect. The damage would be tremendous but it would be manageable. Even if you had 30 or 40 chunks that did make it to the surface and blow holes in the crust a mile wide that would be bad but not end of the world bad. We have a chance of surviving that. Maybe not as a civilization but as a species.

      I'm thinking dinosaur killer when I say punched through to the mantle because that is what that one did. It rang the planet like a bell. That would very likely kills us as a species.

      If there is a dinosaur killer out there coming at us most likely we are boned but the nuke and blasting it to rubble is still the only option if we can't deflect it. And if we can deflect it, it will be with nukes because once again, its all we got.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    11. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Translation+Error · · Score: 1

      We will use nuclear demolitions because that is, simply, all we have.

      And that is all we'll ever have if we don't consider better means and work toward making them a reality.

      --
      When someone says, "Any fool can see ..." they're usually exactly right.
    12. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Tim+C · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Gravity Tractor? You know I love these sky high fantasy ideas to deflect asteroids as much as anyone else but shouldn't we be concentrating on what is real?

      And how exactly do we turn those sky high fantasy ideas into reality, other than by concentrating on them?

      We already have teams looking at doing as you suggest, what do we lose by having other teams look at other ideas? More people working on the same thing won't necessarily make it happen any faster or better. People here of all places should understand that.

    13. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by jdigriz · · Score: 3, Informative

      A gravity tractor is not a sky-high fantasy idea. It's simply giving a name to the fact that all objects attract each other at least a little. They're hovering a little spacecraft near the asteroid and then moving it away under low-power. The asteroid follows slowly due to the laws of physics, not because the ship carries a star-trek tractor beam. Yes, in the future we will send men to explore non-threatening asteroids. But currently we don't even have manned ships built that can get beyond low earth orbit. So no, the odds are we won't be sending men to do it, except perhaps as a backup. A small robot "tug" like this one is the only option other than nuking it with ICBMs until we have longer-range craft built.

    14. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Wrong'o buck'o. I gave a very good description of the Tzar Bomb and MIRV warheads several weeks ago. Feel free to look it up. And that is Tzar, not Tsar, I made that mistake before.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    15. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by AlecC · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't think you know what a "Gravity Tractor" is. It is about 20 tons (min) of rock. We have that. It is put close to the asteroid in the direction we want to pull it, and good ol' Newtonian gravity is allowed exert traction (mMG/d^2). Then thrusters on the lump of rock thrust to get rid of the "equal and opposite" reaction pulling the lump onto the asteroid. So, like the classic donkey with a carrot on a string, the asteroid is gently lead away from the collision with earth.

      This is *much* safer than nukes, and *much* lower technology. We can do. No. For mere money.

      --
      Consciousness is an illusion caused by an excess of self consciousness.
    16. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      An I completely agree with you. We can have people working on two plans but lets put priority where it's due. But lets not just dismiss the nuclear demolition / deflection plan out of hand because we don't like it. Because a gravity tug or solar sails sounds better. Nukes are still the best option on the table and until something better comes along we need to go with what we know.

      Keep researching solar sails and gravity tugs but for the foreseeable future it's nukes or nothing.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    17. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I know exactly what a gravity tug is. I suggested that we use one a few posts back to move a moon from Jupiter to Venus. So, yeah I know what is and how it works. I also know this, we don't have the experience to make it work. And we don't have time to learn.

      You say this is "much safer" like nukes are a bad thing? Actually the nuclear option is much safer because with out present level of understanding it is the best thing that will work. Hell, it's the only thing. Are you opposed to using nukes because they have that word nuclear in them?

      We would not just start lobbing nuclear bombs at a target and hoping one of them works. We would send a highly trained team out there to ether demolish it into manageable chunks or change is course with nuclear demolitions, with a carefully thought up plan.

      You know why all this solar sail and gravity tug plan came up? or why the nuclear option has been pretty much shunned? Because some hippie scientist didn't like the idea of using nukes in space, if forget his name, not even to save the planet.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    18. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by R2.0 · · Score: 1

      "Not completely but I know enough to know the difference between a rifle slug and a light scattering of small buckshot from a distance."

      More like "a rifle slug and a full load of 000 buck at 10'" Because the nuclear explosions you propose will not blow an asteroid into such small bits and scatter them so widely that most will miss.

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    19. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 1

      There is always that chance that someone who is on the spot maybe able to fix the problem. With robots you don't' have that chance.

      Read up on the history of unmanned spaceflight and then get back to us on this point. Practically every mission that NASA has flown has had an unexpected failure. Most have been recovered from the ground by the clever engineers. And not every failure on a manned mission can be recovered: anything that happens too fast or requiring tools that they don't have aboard means that they're lost. There's nothing at all magical about having people on board; they can help recover from failures a bit better than robots can, but they also create a lot more ways for things to go wrong. And in the end, they're far more expensive to launch, even if you ignore safety concerns, since such missions are inherently a lot heavier.

      You're arguments for a manned mission just don't hold up.

      I fully understand the shotgun effect. The damage would be tremendous but it would be manageable.

      No you don't and no it wouldn't be. You didn't even read what I wrote: the K-T event managed to incinerate half the planet with the debris that was thrown up as secondary impactors. That's after a lot of energy was dissipated locally at the impact site. It'd be worse if you put that energy straight into the atmosphere.

      I'm thinking dinosaur killer when I say punched through to the mantle because that is what that one did. It rang the planet like a bell. That would very likely kills us as a species.

      The Earth rings like a bell after every major earthquake. I'm not even sure that you're right that the Chixulub event punched clear to the mantle; got a source? Even if it did, so what? It might trigger some supervolcanism (I know of no evidence of this with Chixulub), but that's hardly the be-all and end-all of ways that impacts kill you.

      If there is a dinosaur killer out there coming at us most likely we are boned but the nuke and blasting it to rubble is still the only option if we can't deflect it.

      That argument is fallacious on two grounds: a) that deflection is impossible and b) that blasting is superior to taking the hit from an intact body. The second is probably (based upon numerous studies) not true and the former is dubious as well.

    20. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      "Don't give me that shotgun crap"? It's simple physics. Even if you somehow reduce the astroid to a monomolecular dust, that cloud of dust is still dumping the same kinetic energy into the planet's atmosphere. It's like an airburst versus a ground explosion for a nuke. Thermally, you're no better off than when you started. What you want is for the asteroid's payload of kinetic energy to not hit the planet at all.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    21. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by R2.0 · · Score: 1

      "We can't use fantastic technology like this because we can't. We don't know how. We have theories but that is all they are. We have nukes and rockets, and that is it."

      Do you have any idea what a "gravity tug" or "gravity tractor" is? I have the primary component of one in my back yard - a big fuckin' rock. Use the mass of the rock to change the course of the larger mass of the asteroid. Newtons law care of high school physics.

      As for "we don't know how" and "theories", guess what? We've never blown up an asteroid using nukes either. It's ALL theory. Except for the fact that we know EXACTLY how gravity affects objects - we've been watching it's effects for thousands of years, probably hundreds of thousands.

      You bare the guy who sits in teh back of the movie yelling "That's impossible - it just doesn't work that way!" aren't you?

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    22. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by R2.0 · · Score: 1

      "I'm thinking dinosaur killer when I say punched through to the mantle because that is what that one did. It rang the planet like a bell. That would very likely kills us as a species."

      Well, one good thing about that is it would take care of the "ignorant blowhards on the Internet problem". Might even be worth it.

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    23. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Wrong again. Lets see if the model clears it up. Take a piece of plywood and place it in front of a watermelon. The plywood is the atmosphere and the watermelon is the Earth. Now shoot one from 20 feet away with a shotgun loaded with rat shot and one with a 30.06.

      Now what is the effect? Of course you have to balance the load in each so that the shotgun is carrying the same energy as the rifle bullet but with the shotgun the energy is scattered over a wider area of effect. The plywood/atmosphere will stop a good bit of it and parts that get through will have lost much of their energy from passing.

      What did the rifle bullet do to the watermellon? What was the effect of the plywood on it? Sure your going to have heat effect from the dust and that is bad, but that is manageable. The rifle slug is end game. You don't manage that. You don't survive it.

      By the way, the smaller the particles, the higher up in the atmosphere they will explode. Better have them up there than on the ground.

      Next!

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    24. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by noidentity · · Score: 1

      We wont' use one nuke. We will blowup the big one then we will blow up the smaller ones into smaller pieces. We will do this until the chunks are small enough that the atmosphere will handle.

      I swear I have a sense of deja vu when reading this...

    25. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 1

      Do you have any idea what a "gravity tug" or "gravity tractor" is? I have the primary component of one in my back yard - a big fuckin' rock. Use the mass of the rock to change the course of the larger mass of the asteroid. Newtons law care of high school physics.

      Wow! You must have a big honking back yard. I'm reasonably sure none of the rocks in my yard would have any effect on any asteroid big enough to worry about.

      And getting a rock that large into space and in just the right place to have the desired effect is at least as theoretical as blowing it up with a nuke.

      --
      Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
    26. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      And where to you plan to get this big honking rock from? Launch it? Move it from deep space?

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    27. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      You are aware that when one must resort to personal attacks in a debate one has lost the debate right?

      My statement still stands, Nukes are what we will use because it is all we have for the moment. And if you don't like it, tough.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    28. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by SiliconEntity · · Score: 1

      I don't think you know what a "Gravity Tractor" is. It is about 20 tons (min) of rock. We have that.

      I'm afraid you are the one who doesn't know what the Gravity Tractor is that this article is talking about. It's not 20 tons of rock, according to TFA it is a one-ton spacecraft, similar to many others which are already scattered about the solar system. And it's a good thing, because contrary to what you say, we certainly don't have "20 tons (min) of rock" that we can cost effectively get into orbit and push all the way out to an asteroid.

      A one ton spacecraft may not sound like much against a 500 foot asteroid of solid rock, but as the article says, it only changes velocity by 0.22 microns per second every day. Yet that adds up and over the course of a year or two, you can nudge the asteroid into a safer path.

    29. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      No. For starters, no asteroid in existence is going to make the earth shatter like a watermelon, so the threat you're hypothesising against doesn't exist. For follow-up, you're overlooking the threats which do exist, one of which I explicitly stated in my comment, namely dumping a collosal (potentially multi-gigaton) amount of energy into the earth's atmosphere. It doesn't matter whether the debris burns up (in your words "explodes") 1cm above the surface or 1km above the surface, it's still reaching us. So nothing about your reasoning makes sense.

      A better analogy on this basis might be shooting at a human being. Being shot with a rifle is bad for you in the sense that a particular local area is damaged and there may be seconary global damage. Being shot with a shotgun is bad for you in the sense that the shot can dump its energy into you, and without even having to break the skin, cause your internal organs to rupture.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    30. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by CFTM · · Score: 1

      Your little thought experiment seems a bit hackneyed to me; you're not addressing any of the issues of scale and in this circumstance I believe they are quite important. Let's say that all of your suppositions are correct and that the nuclear warheads will split the asteroid into sufficiently small pieces so that most are either incinerated by the atmosphere or a handful of impacts that do damage in localized area but are not felt across the planet. Let's also say that 80% of the asteroid is diverted; there's still a huge amount of kinetic energy that is converted into thermal energy and the GP's point is that this thermal energy is believed to have been instrumental to K-T type impacts becoming extinction level events. Thermodynamics can be a bear...

      The other issue of scale you are not addressing is the speed at which this asteroid is traveling at. Astronomical compared to a pellet or a bullet and that astronomical number implies an enormous amount of energy. To me your model is seeming less viable by the second.

      I don't think that "next" was merited just yet...

    31. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Not going to bother to quote all that just going to answer it.

      And almost every manned mission that has had a failure that didn't destroy the ship out right has had a man in place to do what need to me done. I give you Apollo 11 and Apollo 13.

      When the lander was running low on fuel mission control was ready to abort. Niel Armstrong saw a place to land in the last second and landed there. On Apollo 13 most of the work was done on the ground but it was men in craft that made it work. None of those would have been possible if there where robots and not men there.

      My argument for manned missions holds up on the arguments alone.

      Shotgun effect is already covered I feel no need to keep hashing it.

      Lets keep this simple. Earthquake; bicycle bell. small bell, small hammer. KT event, 10 mile rock; Big Honking Bell, Big Honking Hammer. Earthquake, manageable. KT event not manageable.

      Deflection is best but if you can't deflect it in one piece then you blow it into smaller chunks that you can deflect. And also what you can't deflect you lesson some more damage because they are all not going to hit at the same time.

      You really need to think your arguments through before you respond. They are really good arguments but have to many holes in them.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    32. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 1

      I'm not even going to bother counter-arguing you since you don't actually even think about what anyone here is saying.

      You really need to think your arguments through before you respond. They are really good arguments but have to many holes in them.

      Mostly the "holes" appear to be that they, like the facts of the case, seem to disagree with your pre-conceived notions.

      You clearly have no idea of how impacts or spacecraft missions really operate, yet you're pontificating here and stoutly refusing to actually respond to the counter-arguments. Please stop it, you're turning an otherwise useful discussion into morass of misinformation.

    33. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      I don't think that "next" was merited just yet...

      That is good because that means we are still thinking. I had another though just a few moments ago. See how this sounds.

      We have the big honking rock. Deflecting it is not an option because of size. But we can blow it into smaller manageable chunks. Those chunks we can deflect. Now my question what is easier, blowing big ass rock into smaller chunks or just deflecting the big ass one?

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    34. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      I think what they're proposing is a fuel tank with some solar panels and an ion engine on it. We have those. We've launched several, and they've proven to be very reliable.

      You are aware that we have never sent a human to the distances we're talking about, right? Nor for the amount of time we'd be talking about. We also don't have any nuclear missiles that can go that far, or are capable of tracking such an object. Also, several studies have indicated that nuking the average asteroid would be worse than pointless.

      You're the one who's talking about fantasy technology.

    35. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      So, you believe we don't have the experience to send out and control an inert object with rocket boosters on it, but we do have the experience needed to make an interplanetary manned nuclear demolition mission on an asteroid? Seriously? The only untested requirements for a gravity tractor (reach and orbit asteroid) are prerequisites for the manned mission!

      Plus you've got to somehow figure out how to cut up rocks in a predictable fashion using nuclear weapons, for which there is no experience on Earth, let alone in space. Plus all of the problems of a manned interstellar mission. Plus all the problems of landing on an asteroid.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    36. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by 1729 · · Score: 1

      Also, several studies have indicated that nuking the average asteroid would be worse than pointless.

      Which studies are you referring to? Here's one that claims the opposite:

      http://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/343984.pdf

    37. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      Well, you've got a choice between one large deflecting mission, with one gravity tug, against one object on a known orbit, or dozens to hundreds of deflecting missions, each with their own tug, for dozens to hundreds of fragments whose paths we won't know until days to weeks to months after the nuke has gone off.

      I'm going to have to opt for simplicity on this one.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    38. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by garompeta · · Score: 1
      You are so technical with your terminology that really makes me wonder how much of your knowledge comes from sci-fi inspired by "common sense" (or should I say "vulgar sense") or from high school physics class.

      That alone makes this debate exasperating and useless. No matter how many scientific explanations you get here you will try to defend your "position" in this debate.

      "Next?", what is this? The MMA? Wrestling? Astrophysics deathmatch?

      You don't have enough knowledge of even basic physics to discuss this topic, and you are not even willing to reason with its laws since you ignore them.

      Have a good day man.

    39. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by ArsonSmith · · Score: 1

      In Soviet star wars space ship tractors small moon.

      --
      Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
    40. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      The second paragraph of the abstract says those results are only approximate, and vary considerably with the composition of the asteroid. There are also some suggestions that report you linked to was politically motivated, in an effort to get nukes into space.

      One of the main advantages of the gravity tug approach is that it works the same way no matter the composition or shape of the body you want to move.

      Here's the link to the abstract for the (close to original) Nature paper on the subject: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v393/n6684/pdf/393437a0.pdf

    41. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      Yes, the world's opposed to nuclear intervention against asteroids because of the words of one scientist whose name even you can't remember. That sounds about right.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    42. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by R2.0 · · Score: 1

      This is /. - Debate doesn't happen here. If it did, you would have taken the time to discover what they are talking about. Since you did not, you are by definition ignorant on the topic. Since, you have chosen to ignore those who have provided you on the correct definition of a gravity tractor and continued to hold to your misguided definition, you are a blowhard.

      It stopped being a debate when you refused to acknowledge your incorrect assumptions. After that, it's an open field. And really, how hard is it to say "Nevermind; should have RTFA'd"?

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    43. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, we will break it up in to smaller pieces because that is best. Don't give me that shotgun crap about it scattering the damage over a wider area. We will think of that and cover it.

      We will think of it and cover it by not doing something so damn foolish in the first place. I agree with much of your post - about nuclear warheads on chemical rockets being the most likely option if we detected an asteroid right now. (A manned mission is less likely - life support is heavy. Instead, launch three unmanned missions for the same effort. One of them is bound to work.)

      But there's a better way of using nukes. Detonate them at a distance. The upper layer of the asteroid vapourises, and pushes the rest off course.

    44. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      And you bring what to the table? Didn't think so.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    45. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Right, and your an expert how? Get real dumb ass, this is a discussion board not a physics class. You bitch but you don't say much. Please explain the wholes and what makes your argument better? You talk robots and fail to realize that is a dead end plan. Something goes wrong, your dead.

      And I'm not going to respond to every when there is nothing more to say. You also need to think about that I started the discussion. If you have nothing worth saying then move along, its not worth your time and its certainly not worth mine.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    46. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by 1729 · · Score: 1

      Plus you've got to somehow figure out how to cut up rocks in a predictable fashion using nuclear weapons, for which there is no experience on Earth, let alone in space. Plus all of the problems of a manned interstellar mission. Plus all the problems of landing on an asteroid.

      Once again, using nuclear explosives to divert an asteroid does NOT mean blowing them apart. A little (thermal) nudge is sufficient:

      http://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/343984.pdf

    47. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      Of course, and pound for pound it's hard to think of a better gadget for nudging rocks about, but that's not what this guy is suggesting. He has stated time and again that we must blow asteroids into little bits. I'm not sure why.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    48. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Okay, lets readdress the gravity tug issue again. Lets assume you have a 10 mile wide rock, solid rock, where are you going to get the mass to deflect it in given time? How do you plan to move such mass?

      Simplicity is best when it is an option. A gravity tug is an elegant concept given enough time. But what if you don't have the time? You have to deal with the extra complexity of moving enough mass to have an effect.

      A nuclear option may not the best option but it's the only option we have right now, this second. If there is rock 10 year out there is simply no way we'll have solar sails or gravity tugs or anything else ready. With a nuclear and a manned mission we might have a chance.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    49. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      And of course your inaccurate rant and refusal to accept people's responses to it have brightened up this story immensely.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    50. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by 1729 · · Score: 1

      Of course, and pound for pound it's hard to think of a better gadget for nudging rocks about, but that's not what this guy is suggesting. He has stated time and again that we must blow asteroids into little bits. I'm not sure why.

      Ahh, okay, gotcha.

    51. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      "where are you going to get the mass to deflect it in given time?"

      That depends on how much time you need. On a long enough timeline, you could use a gram. On a shorter timeline, you could chip off part of the asteroid, or corall something from its neighbourhood. As the article explains, a one tonne payload, well within our means, could be enough to deflect the asteroid in a single year.

      A manned nuclear mission is simply not an option. We cannot execute a manned interplanetary mission at this time, period. We do not know how to use nuclear weapons to demolish asteroids in a controlled fashion, period. Even excusing these, demolishing an asteroid in itself does not necessarily achieve anything.

      Hitting an asteroid with a nuclear weapon from a conventional rocket to deflect it off-course? That might be an option, perhaps as an alternative to the first-stage kinetic payload described in the article. The Bruce Willis scenario is not feasable.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    52. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      That too is a very good plan but how fast can it be made ready? Do you want to take a chance with a relatively new technology? Even if it has a good track record. We have had 60 years of experience with blowing crap up with nukes and we have a hell of lot of them.

      You also know that for a lot of those studies there is one that says just the opposite. That right there shows me that a manned mission is the only way to go. A manned mission would be a lot more flexible than a robot mission. We've never seen humans out that far but that doesn't change anything. We are talking civilization ending event here, if not species. We can't trust that to a machine.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    53. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      We'll I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree. Given time anything is possible but in time frames I'm thinking of I see no other option.

      Besides we wouldn't send Bruce Willis anyway. It's Lee Majors or nobody... well maybe Shawn Connery. .. or AeroSmith...that would work.. How about Harrison Ford?

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    54. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Actually what happened is the thread more or less got high jacked by what seems to be the anti nuclear crowed.

      The real intent of the thread is gravity tugs, solar sails, other "out of reach" technologies are not ready to be used. We have more experience with nuclear weapons that any of that technology. For some reason some people got the idea that we would blow the threat up aka Bruce Willis with one huge honking bomb.

      My statement is simple. We would send a team to the threat, or several teams, of highly trained astronauts and cosmonauts that would use nuclear charges to ether deflect or blast it into smaller pieces.

      The shot gun affect is a known possibility. We would be prepared for that. We would not simply blow the thing to hell and hope for the best.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    55. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      And your any better? You seem to refuse to read anything I say or even come up with a reasonable rebuttal.

      Here what do you bring to the table?

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    56. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      Okay, my bad I see what you bring to the table.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    57. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 1

      So wait, you're telling me that despite the fact that NASA is so talented they can retroactively program a space probe from hundreds of millions of miles away to swing by Uranus and Neptune when they weren't even on the original itinerary _and_ take better pictures than originally possible when it got there, and despite the fact that they could land a space probe so gently on an asteroid that it wasn't damaged, that they would have to send a team of men up there, something which probably isn't even technologically feasible for the next 20 years, compared to figuring out some orbital mechanics (albeit with a significantly larger payload) that they've been doing successfully for decades?

      I could hardly be more incredulous if you suggested stretching a giant net between satellites at opposite LaGrange points to simply bounce the thing away when it got too close.

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    58. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Damn, you type a lot.

    59. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      We have no experience blowing asteroids up with nukes. We're pretty familiar with how gravity works, and we're pretty good at building space probes, particularly the ones that don't have to land on anything.

      Let's go back to your plan: build a never-before created spaceship to carry a human crew on a mission farther from the planet than anyone else has ever gone, who will have to stay in space longer than anyone has ever done before, to rendezvous with an asteroid (never been done with a manned mission), land on it (never been done), drill into it (never been done) and blow it up with a nuke (as you point out, nobody knows what that will do).

      Now the alternative: build a space probe with an ion engine (been done multiple times), have it rendezvous with an asteroid (been there, done that), and hold station near it for a period of time. I'm not sure we've precisely done that last bit with an asteroid, but we've come pretty close.

      So which one do you think will take longer to put together again?

      As for reliability, I'd much rather send a been-there-done-that robot probe (or six or seven, for redundancy) than a manned mission that's beyond anything we've ever attempted before. Schweickart (you know, the Apollo astronaut, who's actually been out there), would also prefer to bet that way.

    60. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      by Lord Apathy (584315) on Monday August 04, @04:23PM

      You are aware that when one must resort to personal attacks in a debate one has lost the debate right?

      by Lord Apathy (584315) on Monday August 04, @07:25PM

      Get real dumb ass

    61. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not 20 tons of rock, according to TFA it is a one-ton spacecraft, similar to many others which are already scattered about the solar system. And it's a good thing, because contrary to what you say, we certainly don't have "20 tons (min) of rock" that we can cost effectively get into orbit and push all the way out to an asteroid.

      If you're dealing with with a potential planet killer asteroid impact then cost effectiveness hasn't got the slightest fucking bearing on the solution.

      "Golly gee, we could do that, but it wouldn't be cost effective so we'll just let that big honking asteroid slam into our planet instead."

      See how stupid cost effectiveness sounds?

      Another point, 20 tons of anything can be put into orbit pretty damned quickly, especially if you're on a crash program because you've got a killer asteroid looming over your head.

    62. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by garompeta · · Score: 1
      Ok, lets see...
      What you propose with nuclear bombs is not stupid.
      What you think is shared by some scientists.

      But there are other alternatives to it, and considering that we are not in an imminent danger there is more than enough time to research and develop better alternatives.

      We will discover dangerous asteroids hundred or tens of years before its impact. We know the possibilities of how often a devastating asteroid comes to Earth, and we are keeping track of all the potential Objects that may take a dangerous route towards our planet.
      There is a program called Near Earth Object Program from NASA and JPL, and its automated asteroid monitoring system "Sentry" is tracking the trajectory of all the potentially risky asteroids over the next 100 years. There is another effort from Italy NeoDyS, which uses another methodology to track asteroids with Impact Risk to the Earth.
      Another project it is orbit@home, which uses the concept of distributed computing already used on SETI@home, which tries to use the help of idle cpu power of every user in the internet to process the information gathered.
      And of course the NASA main competition, the ESA has its own NEO monitoring. In the worst case scenario we will be alerted one year before its impact, but it is more probable that we will get a trajectory confirmed tens of years before its impact.
      Therefore there is still hope.

      There are basically two strategies in the case of a oncoming asteroid:
      To destroy it or deflect/delay it.
      The methodology and its strategy will depend on how much time we have, its trajectory, the mass and its composition, shape, its density, its porosity, the velocity and its rotation.

      Your proposal of destroying it with a nuclear blast is one of the possibilities contemplated but it is not actually very welcomed, since its fracture would imply more complications. It can be used most mass is vaporized. If instead large amount of fragments still continues its journey and impacts at a high velocity, it will still have devastating effects on Earth.
      That is why it is most often proposed the detonation of nuclear weapons for deflecting effects.
      Other proposals of destruction are the usage of focused Solar energy to vaporize it or deflect it by estimulating the rotation of it by amplifying the Yarkovsky effect hopefully making it deviate from its orbit.
      Others propose the usage of Kinetic Impact, deflecting it by an impact modifying its momentum. The NASA supports this (although they are more inclined on using nukes by now saying that it is the most affordable and cost efficient) but the ESA (European Space Agency) claims that Kinetic impact is the most efficient method and they are already ready with a whole mission called Don Quijote (no kidding, their two spacecrafts are called Sancho and Hidalgo, the first being the scout that analyzes the asteroid, and the second being the impactor).
      Others are favoring the usage of rockets on the surface to propel the asteroid out of its orbit. And of course the ones cheering for the gravital tractor which is an elegant solution since it doesn't matter neither the composition of the asteroid nor its rotation, but it is expensive, it requires more research and when deployed it requires many years of "tractoring" the asteroid to divert it to a safe trajectory, so a very early detection of the threat is a must in this case.

      As always, the usage of any of these methods depend on the scenario and the needed strategy and resources available.

    63. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't think you understood the article.

    64. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      I'm happy to let it lie, I think you've followed my argument and you're just not buying it, which is fair enough.

      (Clearly we would have to send Brian May.)

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    65. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Clearly you've got a clue, unlike that Lord Apathy twat.

      I'm thinking dinosaur killer when I say punched through to the mantle because that is what that one did. It rang the planet like a bell. That would very likely kills us as a species.

      The Earth rings like a bell after every major earthquake.

      And after every minor earthquake, and after every gnat's footfall, but at amplitude is too low to detect. It was in Seismology 1.0.1 (or at least, it was in my Earth Physics classes. (BTW, unlike Lord Apathy, I am a geologist. My professional affiliation is FGS, if you're interested.)

      I'm not even sure that you're right that the Chixulub event punched clear to the mantle; got a source?

      I rather doubt that he'd have a source, or at least, not a source of repute. Ball park figures : Chixulub is about 150km in diameter ; diameter/ depth for complex craters is around 10/ 1 ; so depth of the early crater (once the transitional shuffling is over and done with) was in the order of 15km. Typical depth to Moho on typical continental crust is about 30-35km. (There used to be a geological map server at Cornell.edu, which could generate a map of depth-to-Moho over arbitrary regions of the Earth's surface. It seems to have gone now. [SADNESS] )

      Even if it did, so what? It might trigger some supervolcanism (I know of no evidence of this with Chixulub), but that's hardly the be-all and end-all of ways that impacts kill you.

      People have repeatedly and confusedly claimed the the eruption of the Deccan Traps antipodially to the Chixulub impact may indicate a causal relationship. This has never gained strong credence within the profession because the events leading up to the eruption of a hotspot (generation of a core-surface hot point, initiation of thermal upwelling) must have started at a minimum 10s of millions of years prior to the impact, and from the stratigraphic record of other hotspots (I drill oilfields whose location and reservoir properties are increasingly seen as affected by the Iceland hotspot ; this really is something I get paid to understand and argue about, with tens of millions of dollars in exploration budgets in the balance), the duration of regional uplifting preceeds eruption of first basalts by hundreds of thousands of years. There is a superficial appeal to the idea of a "contre-coup" fracture consequent on the impact, but the idea simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
      Bloody Vista has shat it's TCP stack twice while I've been editing this, and I have to travel to an oil rig tomorrow morning, so I don't have time to work further on this. If you're interested, reply and I'll pick it up once I'm into the swing of my 20-hour workday.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    66. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 1

      I rather doubt that he'd have a source, or at least, not a source of repute. Ball park figures : Chixulub is about 150km in diameter ; diameter/ depth for complex craters is around 10/ 1 ; so depth of the early crater (once the transitional shuffling is over and done with) was in the order of 15km. Typical depth to Moho on typical continental crust is about 30-35km. (There used to be a geological map server at Cornell.edu, which could generate a map of depth-to-Moho over arbitrary regions of the Earth's surface. It seems to have gone now. [SADNESS] )

      Yeah, that's what I was figuring more or less. (My estimate for the lithosphere thickness was "a few tens of km", but I agree with the 10:1 as a planetary scientist.) Seemed close to my best guess, but not clearly through or not-through.

      I have this vague recollection of *some* impact being thought to have triggered super-volcanism, but that could be feverish imaginations.

    67. Re:Nice, but lets keep it real. by bloodninja · · Score: 1

      Right, and your an expert how?

      Go research who CheshireCatCO is. I think terms like 'planetary scientist', 'NASA', and 'Cassini' come to mind.

      --
      Lock the wife and the dog in the boot of the car.
      Return one hour later.
      Who's happy to see you?
  41. An oversight... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    on my part. I am usually careful to read articles before I comment about them. :o)

    Even so, I am not fully convinced by the illustration as presented. While it may not be a 100% accurate depiction, this is still throwing mass toward the "towed" object. Keep in mind that outside the nozzle, gas tends to expand outwards. It seems to me (as I mentioned) that to negate this effect, you would have to aim the reaction mass even more to the side, which would make the whole thing even more inefficient.

    If they believe this would still work, then fine. I was not arguing against the idea as a whole, just pointing out a difficulty.

    1. Re:An oversight... by Urkki · · Score: 1

      Note that efficiency would not be a desgin goal, it would be a design limitation. Ie. you would not really care for or optimize for efficiency, you would optimize for providing maximal tugging force for the duration of the mission with available technology. Ie. if you could increase the force by lowering efficiency (putting the thrusters in even greater angle), then who cares about efficiency.

      If critical (like avoiding end of civilization as we know it), a single tug could be operational for a very short time, and then we'd just launch new tugs to replace the spent onces as often as is needed.

      If fate of humanity depended on it, I bet we could ramp up production and start launching a rocket per day very fast. I mean "do you want to do everything you can to help this effort for a few years, or do you want that all you love will disapper in a firestorm in a few years" is kind of motivational question ;-)

    2. Re:An oversight... by Ihlosi · · Score: 1

      If fate of humanity depended on it, I bet we could ramp up production and start launching a rocket per day very fast. I mean "do you want to do everything you can to help this effort for a few years, or do you want that all you love will disapper in a firestorm in a few years" is kind of motivational question ;-)

      You're being very optimistic. I would assume that your proposal will have to struggle with lots and lots of opposition from religious whackos ($DEITY will protect us / it's all $DEITY's will / it's gonna be the end of the world and that's exactly what we want, because we're gonna meet $DEITY then), people who will scream about how this will destroy the economy, people who will scream about how this will destroy the environment, incoming-asteroid deniers, conspiracy nutjobs, people who want to see more data before they're going to do anything at all, people who want to keep the government(s) out of this and let the invisible hand of the market solve the problem, people who will claim that this isn't a man-made problem and that we shouldn't do anything about it, people who will assert that other planets get hit by rocks and they're doing just fine, etc, etc.

    3. Re:An oversight... by Urkki · · Score: 1

      Nah, there wouldn't be a lot of oppostion. There might be very loud opposition from a very small minority in a few countries (I think we're both thinking of the same country here...). But that would not really matter, because in general, the people who are really in power want to stay alive, and they're not stupid enough to fall for some doomsday cult thing. I mean, comparing to global warming, if you're rich that might even make you richer. But everybody being killed by a big asteroid is very bad for *all* business.

      And for an effort like this (launching a rocket per day), there would need to be multiple rocket manufacturing and launch facilites all around the world. If, against all the odds, the wackos managed to bomb one, or overthrow one participating government, it still would not stop the rest of us form trying to save humanity.

  42. Compensated summation by DrYak · · Score: 4, Informative

    (I think you can achieve something like that by using a number to store the closest representable value and another one to represent the tiny difference from what it should be).

    Yup. It's the Kahan summation algorithm. It works as you describe it and it used to compensate the error that happens when doing very big sums of very small numbers (exactly the situation in the gravity tractor's problem)

    --
    "Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
    1. Re:Compensated summation by PaganRitual · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yup. It's the Kahan summation algorithm. It works as you describe it and it used to compensate the error that happens when doing very big sums of very small numbers

      Ah yes. It's a very useful algorithm, although you only touch on the second stage of dealing with the error, which is the usage of the algorithm in compensating for the error.

      There is a first, less commonly mentioned stage that the algorithm helps with, which is dealing with the frustration on encountering the error in the first place.

      You can yell out KAHAAAAAAAAAAAN.

      Okay, I'm done.

  43. I challenge that. It is anything but trivial. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    You have to keep a large mass close enough -- but not touching -- another mass to gravitationally "tow" it away from its existing trajectory... and away from a gravity well. This is a very delicate balancing act. Even a miniscule error will bollix the whole works.

    In addition to that, you have to keep from pushing reaction mass AT the object you are towing. As another poster mentioned, at a minimum this will decrease the efficiency of the operation by a great deal, which makes the balance even more precarious.

    If you can do that math, then let's see it please. Otherwise, please lose the sarcasm.

    1. Re:I challenge that. It is anything but trivial. by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      You have to keep a large mass close enough -- but not touching -- another mass to gravitationally "tow" it away from its existing trajectory... and away from a gravity well. This is a very delicate balancing act. Even a miniscule error will bollix the whole works.

      The math is simple. The force is equal to m1 times m2 times the gravitational constant divided by the distance squared. The math of what needs to be done and what forces would be needed could be done on a napkin in crayon in 30 seconds.

      In addition to that, you have to keep from pushing reaction mass AT the object you are towing.

      Wow, you make something incredibly easy sound hard. Have to jets at 90 degrees to each other, with the mid-point pointed at what you want to move away from. Done. Took me less than 5 seconds to fix this impossible problem.

      If you can do that math, then let's see it please.

      What math? The math to determine the force you need? That's covered above. Give me the masses of the two objects and the desired distance, and I'll spew out the force between them. Or, for the last one, give me the force you want, and I'll give you the force (per thruster) to achieve it. I'd explain the math you, but since this is so hard for you and it requires that you have some passing understanding of sines and cosines and such, I wouldn't want to confuse you.

      Otherwise, please lose the sarcasm.

      The math of what needs to be done is increadibly simple. I covered it in elementary school. I could have solved this problem in the 4th grade. That you are claiming it is hard to do the math is a joke that should only be met with sarcasm. Yes, the implementation of it is hard, but the math of taking two bodies in an empty universe and moving one through gravity is simple. Doing it when you have to contend with solar winds, uneven surfaces on a rotating body, an unknown and possibly changing mass, a mass with discharges that could change the direction independently, and such is a different matter. But calculating "it'd take XX force, meaning 2 (or 3 or 7 or whatever) jets pointed in direction Y with ZZZ force each" is incredibly easy. Well, unless you take me up on the 7 jets. Just because the word problem is confusing to you doesn't mean the math to solve it isn't easy.

  44. Action and reaction, man by Moraelin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Actually, there is no free meal there. If you exert a force F on the asteroid, you get -F exerted upon the tractor. (Imagine a cute little vector mark above the F, to be completely true.) There is no known way to escape that.

    If you always stay X metres in front of the asteroid, then effectively you can treat the whole system as one body. You're not just accelerating the asteroid (with mass m1), you're also equally accelerating the tractor (let's call its mass m2) with the same acceleration, or they'll collide or drift apart. So effectively you're accelerating the sum of their masses, m=m1+m2.

    The force to do that is still F=m*a, or F=(m1+m2)*a. There is no free lunch. You're still accelerating the same m1+m2, and if done at the same a, you must apply the same force F. I.e., if the same rocket engine is used, you get to burn the same amount of fuel, regardless of whether they're physically in contact or weakly pulled by gravity. Using gravity there just puts a (very low) upper bound on F.

    But wait, that was assuming the ideal case, where you magically apply _exactly_ the amount of force to stay always at X metres drom the asteroid. Reality is much less ideal. Such a tractor would probably have to fire rocket engines back and forth, just to stay anywhere near the prescribed distance. I.e., it would use extra fuel for positioning and maneuvering, whereas a lander with a big jet pointed "upwards" would have no such worries.

    Just about the only reason I see there, is if you have to essentially rotate the system, to execute some complex maneuver with the asteroids (over aeons, mind you.) Then it's probably less waste to just move the tractor around the asteroid, than to rotate the asteroid with your thruster embedded in it.

    Still, I'm kind of at a loss as to when or why you'd need that, or have the luxury of enough time for such infinitesimal accelerations to do the job. More realistically, you'd just want the asteroid's orbit changed enough that it doesn't collide with Earth. And you'll likely not have that awfully much time. So you just want to push it out of the way, hard enough to make a difference, but not hard enough for it to shatter into a MIRV of death and destruction. Probably the safest bet being to push it upwards or downwards, in regard to Earth's orbit, so it becomes a lot more inclined than the orbit which threatened to collide. You have a lot more margin for error in the calculation there. You don't need to rotate and maneuver it accurately, you just want it out of the way.

    So basically while I'll agree that their method could work, I'm kinda at a loss as to why would you want to do it that way.

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    1. Re:Action and reaction, man by Mattsson · · Score: 3, Insightful

      or have the luxury of enough time for such infinitesimal accelerations to do the job.

      The article said that they'd use one probe to crash into the asteroid to make it miss the Earth, then use a second one to use gravitation over a very long period of time to make sure that the new orbit won't cross Earth orbit later.

      One possible reason why they wouldn't want to land it and then push it in order to fine tune the new orbit, which would take the exact same amount of fuel, is that they might have to change the thrust vector at a later date.
      This is hard to do with something standing in a certain place on the asteroid.
      Something keeping position a bit to the side is easier to move to a new position.
      And if the asteroid is spinning, which is not entirely unlikely, anything situated on it would have a hard time exerting a force at an exact vector relative to the orbit.

      --
      /.Mattsson - My native language is not English, so please don't whine over linguistic errors. (That's lame anyway...)
    2. Re:Action and reaction, man by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      I guess the gravitational interaction between the tractor and the rock, derangedly complex as their motions would become in the long run, is more predictable than the conditions on the rock itself for mounting engines. Inefficient, but with fewer unknowns. Although I suppose if you wanted a sufficiently massive gravity tractor you'd probably have to mount engines on an asteroid or some other garbage you'd picked up out there anyway.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    3. Re:Action and reaction, man by Samy+Merchi · · Score: 1

      "But wait, that was assuming the ideal case, where you magically apply _exactly_ the amount of force to stay always at X metres drom the asteroid. Reality is much less ideal. Such a tractor would probably have to fire rocket engines back and forth, just to stay anywhere near the prescribed distance. I.e., it would use extra fuel for positioning and maneuvering, whereas a lander with a big jet pointed "upwards" would have no such worries."

      This would indeed be a problem if you had rocket engines. And if you built an orbiter with rocket propulsion, then I agree, it makes more sense to do it as an impactor than a long-term orbiter/gravity tug.

      However, if one wants to go with the long-term orbiter/gravity tug, then I would assume ion thrusters are the chosen method of propulsion. I mean seriously, you can't do anything long-term with rocket engines. Ion thrusters are the propulsion of choice for anything long term.

      Ion thrusters would have no problem (and in fact would be very efficient used in this manner) applying a minute constant force for years, using very little fuel. So you wouldn't be constantly firing rockets on and off, you could have the ion thruster constantly on.

  45. Keyhole? by bistromath007 · · Score: 1

    I think when a skyscraper-sized chunk of iron is going to smash into the Earth we have much better things to worry about than any cosmic peeping toms who might be living on it. :|

  46. Different approach by moteyalpha · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It seems that if you wanted to change it's course by a continuous amount, that simply increasing it's mass by pushing other material into it's field would make the sun do the work. Just a random thought.

    1. Re:Different approach by Idarubicin · · Score: 1

      It seems that if you wanted to change it's course by a continuous amount, that simply increasing it's mass by pushing other material into it's field would make the sun do the work. Just a random thought.

      Nope. The acceleration felt by an object in a gravitational field is going to be essentially independent of mass. As you increase the mass of the object, the gravitational force on it will increase, but so will the force required to accelerate the larger combined object. Consequently, the (now-slightly-heavier) asteroid will follow the same course.

      --
      ~Idarubicin
  47. band name by dirvish · · Score: 1

    "Gravity Tractor" would be a great band name.

  48. WIMP by kipman725 · · Score: 1

    "The gravity tractor is a wimp" ah so they found those weakly interacting massive particals!

  49. This is a job for ... by l0ungeb0y · · Score: 1

    the Astronaut Farmer

  50. Spindizzy time? by argent · · Score: 1

    Which has the added effect of causing it to act like a gyroscope and resist further alterations to it's vector.

    I don't think rotational and linear momentum are coupled in the way that you seem to imply they are, otherwise it would be a lot easier to build an inertialess drive.

  51. Re:Bah. Just Nuke It. by g0dsp33d · · Score: 1

    Don't forget small game hunting!

    --
    lol: You see no door there!
  52. So very old by belg4mit · · Score: 1
    --
    Were that I say, pancakes?
  53. Suckers! by g0dsp33d · · Score: 2, Funny

    I just got a patent on giant space traffic signs to divert and manage traffic flow. More effective and it does not get stuck in space mud. Plus I can't get sued if my product fails! hahaha I'll be rich.

    --
    lol: You see no door there!
  54. why gravity? by ILuvRamen · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Why use one of the weakest forces in existence to move it? You'd probably get the same amount of thrust by attaching a dozen black cat bottle rockets to it. Gravity is pathetic! If I've got a paperclip sitting on a desk, the entire earth is pulling at it and yet one little 1 ounce magnet could pick it up. Refrigerator magnet 1, earth 0. They could strap a tiny, low yield rocket to the asteroid and blast it away waaaaaaay faster and more effectively. The whole gravity thing is so weak and dependent on the distance between the asteroid and the weighted spacecraft that it has a high chance of not working or at least not working enough.

    --
    Google's Super Secret Search Algorithm: SELECT @search_results FROM internet WHERE @search_results = 'good'
    1. Re:why gravity? by cowscows · · Score: 1

      The great thing about gravity is that it's basically free. You don't have to carry any fuel to power your gravity, you don't have to worry about it running out, and you don't have to worry about it malfunctioning and not working once it gets there.

      The trade-off is that it takes a longer time to work, but if you've put your plan into effect early enough then that's not really a big deal. If time isn't an issue and the end result is the same either way, then why not go with the simplest solution? Putting a rocket on an asteroid and actively thrusting against it is very complicated for a number of reasons that other commenters on this article have already described.

      This isn't the most useful analogy, but say I was moving out of my apartment and I had 100 lbs of stuff that needed to get loaded into my car. The fastest way might be to just throw all that crap into a big box and haul it down the stairs and into the driveway. But even though it'll take me longer, I'd probably prefer to pack it into a few smaller boxes and make five or six trips down to the car. It's not as quick, but it's easier, and there's much less of a chance of either a box or my back giving out.

      --

      One time I threw a brick at a duck.

    2. Re:why gravity? by ILuvRamen · · Score: 1

      you have to use fuel to adjust your distance from the asteroid to keep it somewhat constant. In fact, the manuevering thrusters needed to do this could move the asteroid a heck of a lot faster if the craft would just park and fire the manuevering thrusters in one direction nonstop.

      --
      Google's Super Secret Search Algorithm: SELECT @search_results FROM internet WHERE @search_results = 'good'
    3. Re:why gravity? by cowscows · · Score: 1

      You can't just park on an asteroid and fire the thrusters nonstop, because asteroids are generally tumbling as they move through space. Imagine a rocket attached to a sphere that's rotating along one axis. If you want to move in a given direction perpendicular to that axis, you can only fire the rocket at most half of the time, or else on the other half of the rotation you'll be pushing the sphere back in the wrong direction. And to make things even harder asteroids are usually rotating along multiple-axis, making the timing of rocket firings very complicated. Much more complicated than the tiny adjustments that would be needed to keep the craft at a given distance from the asteroid. The hard part would be getting the craft into the proper position to begin with, but that's certainly not any harder than getting the craft in position to make a soft landing.

      --

      One time I threw a brick at a duck.

    4. Re:why gravity? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have never fully understood that argument (yes, I know that is a fault of mine).
      A 28.35g magnet can easily pick up a clip, but won't uplift a weight many times greater than its own, how should be this last case considered? magnet 0 gravity 10E6? Remember that gravity is additive and given enought mass no magnet could resist. Try to pick up a 1 Kg with your magnet and then tell me that Gravity is pathetic.
      So, a better expression of your thoughts (if any) could be:
      Given a very small mass you need a very powerful gravitational field to apply to it the same acceleration caused by a 28.35g magnet but given a big enought mass no magnetic force could hope to apply the same acceleration. It has a whole new meaning said this way.

      Remember black holes.

    5. Re:why gravity? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Gravity is pathetic! If I've got a paperclip sitting on a desk, the entire earth is pulling at it and yet one little 1 ounce magnet could pick it up. Refrigerator magnet 1, earth 0.

      I can't believe this was posted by a human being... probably one with a brain-stem. The fact that it is currently modded "interesting" is appalling.

    6. Re:why gravity? by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

      Why can't you believe this? The OP is correct - gravity is a _tiny_ force when compared with magnetism or any of the other nuclear forces. The first table table in this article states that the weak nuclear force is 10^25 times as strong as gravity, and the electromagnetic force (which is also a 1/r^2 force) is 10^36 times as strong!

      36 orders of magnitude is the same as comparing a proton in a carbon atom to the Milky Way Galaxy.

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
  55. F*&@ it,.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just lob a used FORD at it.

  56. Curling with asteroids by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sounds like they should hire one of the broom guys from a curling team.

  57. Well.. by JackassJedi · · Score: 1

    It's just a confession of not knowing how to build a tractor beam!

    --
    Power corrupts the few, while weakness corrupts the many.
  58. Yes, it pulls gravitationally... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    ... but it order to do that, it must keep itself moving ever so slowly away from the object's trajectory. So it must push itself away from that path by some means, which with today's technology means throwing mass in that direction. Which means rocket engines of some sort.

    1. Re:Yes, it pulls gravitationally... by Samy+Merchi · · Score: 1

      Actually, probably ion thrusters.

      A solar sail is an interesting idea for this sort of stuff, too.

  59. Why is this useful? by david.given · · Score: 2, Informative

    If you place your massy spacecraft near an asteroid and let go, the two will mutually attract each other and eventually collide. The centre of gravity of the system won't change.

    So, in order for this to work at all, you need a manouevering system on the spacecraft in order to maintain its separation from the asteroid.

    The thing is, though, that from a pure orbital mechanics point of view, this is absolutely equivalent to simply mounting the spacecraft's thrusters on the asteroid itself. In fact, using the gravitational tractor is probably going to be rather less efficient, because the geometry of the system is such that you have to fire your thrusters towards the asteroid --- and a certain amount of your thruster exhaust is going to bounce off the asteroid's surface, imparting momentum in the wrong direction to the asteroid.

    The only things I can think of that the gravity tractor does for you that direct acceleration doesn't is:

    • With the gravity tractor, you don't have to manipulate the asteroid in any way; this may make the engineering considerations easier, as you don't have to worry about the rock collapsing under your rocket's thrust, etc;
    • The gravity tractor operates on the entire mass of the asteroid, rather than applying thrust to one point and relying on the asteroid's integrity to distribute the thrust. This avoids embarassing situations where the asteroid simply disintegrates rather than accelerating, or leaving stuff behind.

    But, given the type of accelerations we're talking about --- which will be the same regardless what technique you're using --- I wouldn't imagine that either of these would be a problem in practice. So, what makes the gravity tractor so much better than just using rockets? Indeed, what makes it better than alternative approaches like spraying the asteroid with aluminium powder (which raises the albedo, causing increased photon pressure, which alters the orbit over time)?

    1. Re:Why is this useful? by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 1

      Asteroids are highly irregular bodies and often loosely packed. Applying thrusters to the side of one would be a logistical nightmare since you want to push straight at the center of mass (otherwise you're wasting thrust to spin the asteroid) and because you're not sure you won't just bury the spacecraft as you push into a rubble pile.

      A gravitational system circumvents those issues.

    2. Re:Why is this useful? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your points are correct; now follow through on the thought experiment.

      The gravity tractor method doesn't require anything special to deal with asteroids of varying shape, composition, hardness, uneven balance, etc. You don't need to worry about smacking a thruster onto the surface at the wrong spot, or damaging said thruster, or said thruster sinking into ice/gravel/whatever. We don't need to learn anything new about asteroids to gravity tractor one.

      Secondly, and not less importantly!: though you'd technically be using the same amount of energy either way (assuming absolute perfect execution of the ground pushing method), there IS a big win doing it the slow way; you can use much more efficient ion drives instead of chemical rockets, and you can partly power those with solar panels or nuclear batteries or whatever. This DOES skew things in your favor (better numbers plugged into the 'ol rocket fuel equations) in the long run.

  60. Naah... merge the movies. by denzacar · · Score: 1

    Actually, "The Astronaut Farmer" would be more suited for sequel here.

    They could even re-edit the first Astronaut Farmer movie to match its Billy Bob Thornton with the Armageddon one.
    Make it so that Bruce Willis' character is actually Armageddon Bruce's twin brother.

    Only to make it bigger... have those two halfs of the asteroid from the Armageddon break into two halfs each, and back on their course to Earth.
    FOUR MOTHERFUCKIN ASTEROIDS!!!
    Call it "The Astronaut Farmer 2 - Four Riders of the Apocalypse".
    Have Ben (Affleck), Billy Bob and 2nd Bruce (get it - Plan B) stopping one 'steroid each - with one left over to obliterate France. Again.

    I'm not sayin' that it would get anywhere close to topping off The Dark Knight...
    But it could probably take out Finding Nemo.

    --
    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
    1. Re:Naah... merge the movies. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cant we just fling them all at Mars?
      You know, fatten and warm the little brother up a bit.

      Advantages if done right:
      Assuming we did this every few months for the next 100 years
      * More gravity = it can handle a bit more atmosphere
      * Can divert the orbit a bit closer to our sun to warm it up
      * Tilt it a bit like the earth
      * If that's done right, we could try and get it into an exact 365.25 day / 24hour rotation about 4 months behind in the orbit - leaving room for venus of course
      * Can slow down the day by 28mins
      * Possibly increase the amount of water on the planet
      * Warm it up a bit

      During all this, then we can seed it with a billion samples of every microbe known to exist and hope that some find a niche. Those that do, we seed more of.

      Then we can all move to mars!

  61. Too many uncertainties with lander/impactor by Morgaine · · Score: 1

    The other techniques have so many uncertainties that it's simply too dangerous to rely on them. We have only one chance to get it right, and that's all.

    Landing is fraught with uncertainties (composition, center of gravity, even existence of surface, material rigidity, locking onto surface under such tiny gravity, stability under thrust) and difficulties (rock spinning, danger and ambiguity in landing, thrust vector issues).

    Crashing is likewise fraught with uncertainties (center of gravity, composition) and difficulties (waste of kinetic energy of the impactor by conversion into heat and spin, accuracy of high-speed impactor).

    In contrast, the gravity tractor method is continuously adaptive and acts on all the material in the rock simultaneously, so it's immune to all the above issues. What's more, ion engines are extremely fuel-efficient, so long-term station keeping just off the rock isn't a massively hard problem.

    Given just one shot at this, I would much rather trust the life of the planet to the gravity tractor approach. There's less to go wrong.

    I'd send several tractors though, not just one. We simply can't afford to fail.

    --
    "The question of whether machines can think is no more interesting than [] whether submarines can swim" - Dijkstra
  62. stating the obvious by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Gravity Tractor Could Deflect Asteroids
    Teleporters Could Decrease Travel Time
    Shield Could Provide More Protection
    Photon Torpedos Could Increase Firepower
    Clean Energy Source Could Reduce CO2

  63. Re:How about we move this rock instead? NO!NO! by davidsyes · · Score: 2, Funny

    How about we launch 'accelotrons" to generate wormholes around the threatening asteroids and cometary matter. Just send them off... POOF! GONE. (Well, until beings from Klixator Prime and other places come knocking on our door with cease and desist orders due to all OUR life-extinguishing heavenly bodies create junk yards in other worlds...)

    --
    Previously: "Linux... Toward the Sunrise..." Now: "Linux... Toward the-- No, now, part of Every Sunrise"
  64. Pinky, I think our plan has a fatal flaw by s_p_oneil · · Score: 1

    Ok, the only known ways to accelerate in space are:
    1) To eject matter from the object in the opposite direction (preferably at very high speed).
    2) To get a push (or pull) from other matter.

    To keep the tractor at the right distance from the asteroid (i.e. to keep it pulling), it would have to keep accelerating away from the asteroid. The matter ejected from the tractor would hit the asteroid, pushing it back on course and negating the pull of the tractor. I suppose you could eject the matter in a spray all around so it passes around the asteroid, but that would waste fuel and would mean keeping the craft at a pretty good distance from the asteroid, and the force of gravity decreases by distance squared (that's probably why the craft looks the way it does in the article, a dumbbell shape with much of the weight at one and and thrusters at the other). It's still not very elegant, and it's very expensive to send heavy craft into deep space to rendezvous with an asteroid.

    It seems like it would be better to land a small light craft (or a number of them) with an ion engine on the asteroid's surface. Simply land, point the solar panels and ion engine straight up (or at an angle if necessary), and let it fire. Landing may be difficult if the asteroid is spinning too quickly, but scientists have used craft designed to crash land before. It should work as long as they can land and manage to hang on, even if the ion engines have to be fired intermittently to keep thrusting in the right direction. It should be cheaper than trying to send a big heavy lump of a ship to catch an asteroid, and it should provide a much better thrust-to-weight ratio.

    1. Re:Pinky, I think our plan has a fatal flaw by tinkerton · · Score: 1

      The matter ejected from the tractor would hit the asteroid, pushing it back on course and negating the pull of the tractor.
      you can put the engines on a long long stick. The advantage of the ship is you control the structure, you can pull on it without it breaking. With pulling a blob, you have to take care you just don't pull off a bit. With pushing, you just push a hole in it and it starts to get wobbly as well.

      Just the same, if you had a large bag to put the asteroid in, and then you pull on the bag with a long rope, it would work too :) The task is "how to anchor your cable". The bag is a way to fill that in. Pulling with gravity is another way to replace the bag+cable. More hightech "anchor for cable" ideas are a set of devices that burrow through the asteroid creating a strong spiderweb that you can pull on.

      When using gravity to pull, obviously it's smarter to mine the asteroid for mass instead of bringing it with you. You also would like to use the asteroid's mass to have something to eject from your engines.

    2. Re:Pinky, I think our plan has a fatal flaw by s_p_oneil · · Score: 1

      A long stick? For an asteroid more than 1km in diameter? That's a pretty long stick to try to send into space. The bag would be unthinkable. Even if you could manage to send a bag that big up there, if the asteroid is spinning the bag would get ripped to shreds and anything tethered to a rope would be flung off into space (the mass of the asteroid would be enormous compared to anything we can send up there). It would be better to try a "grappling gun" approach, but even that would have problems with a spinning asteroid.

      So far the only ideas I've heard that make sense to me are the tractor method they described or the "land an engine on it" method I described. Their idea is easier to implement without problems (i.e. it doesn't require landing on uncertain surfaces), but it may not provide enough of a push. I could be way off, but I imagine the pull of gravity between bodies that small (and at that distance) is significantly less than the thrust of one ion engine, and my idea would use several (which would help if a percentage of the engines had problems landing/firing).

    3. Re:Pinky, I think our plan has a fatal flaw by tinkerton · · Score: 1

      You're right that I assumed that the asteroid wouldn't be rotating. I mean, who reads the article.
      Let's try an off the cuff upper limit for the rotation: take a radius 10.000 smaller than the earth, so over one km, then the escape velocity would be 100 times smaller(square root), of the order of 10cm/s. So stopping the asteroid from rotating would be similar in effort to accelerating it to a few cm/s, in the worst case (fastest spinning).

      But(still stubbornly refusing to do any calculations), the article mentions accelerations of 0.22 microns per day during several years as being enough for 'the purpose'(and that would be valid whatever the size of the asteroid). An engine that provides this acceleration would have to spend a million seconds or a few months to stop the asteroid from rotating. A year is a few million seconds. The smaller the asteroid the cheaper it becomes to stop the thing from rotating first.

      Does rotation mean you have to give up on the idea of "the bag". Probably, but not in principle. The idea of the bag is the most naive image i could think of for anchoring in a pile of rubble or a waterball. A net bag around it is the first idea that arises. It would be lighter than a solar sail. Another idea would be a kind of web anchored inside part of the asteroid(you can't pull away a big piece of the asteroid anyway, because of gravity).

      I can imagine pulling on the bag in the same way as you think of pushing on the asteroid. Even, if you tighten up the bag enough, the device would be on the surface too. You can pull on the bag sideways as well so you can slow down rotation or to accelerate the asteroid, or both at the same time. Both with pulling and pushing the engines wouldn't be able to run in a constant fashion, and they create wobbles, waves , and deformations. You'd need smart engines that adapt all the time. An engine that pushes may even have to crawl out the hole it creates. Imagine pushing a waterball. Gravity is much better in that respect. I like the gravity idea.

      About the long stick: it could be a cable actually :) You can use it for the gravity tractor too if the tractor is too close to the asteroid. The engine would be at the far end of the cable while the energy plant, and any other balast you want to take from the asteroid, would be near the asteroid. In terms of strengh it's a lot easier than a space elevator. On the other hand with a gravity tractor it would be easier to scoop up mass from the asteroid so you become heavier and can move further away from it.

      The more powerful the engines the more mass you need as well. You shouldn't be bringing all that mass with you.

    4. Re:Pinky, I think our plan has a fatal flaw by tinkerton · · Score: 1

      oh dammit. I used an escape velocity of 10m/s instead of 10km/s for earth. That means the momentum in rotation is much bigger than the momentum needed for deviating the trajectory.

  65. Re:Bah. Just Nuke It. by BlackSnake112 · · Score: 1

    Ah Nukes, the redneck answer to all questions regarding earth crossing asteroids AND rouge terrorists/nation states.

    And those cold winter nights....

  66. Another use for such a device .... by tkjtkj · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The 'Gravity Tractor' device was discussed somewhere on or off the net as it might relate to 'saving the earth'. As i recall, the topic was about the ultimate demise of our Sun .. in 5 billion years or so .. The process of the Sun's destruction will include its diameter expanding .. the Sun's surface approaching Earth's orbit. LONG before that, of course, the heat would sterilize our world. The proposal was to navigate a large asteroid to 'lead the earth' in its orbit around the Sun.. accellerating Earth to a higher orbit, adding millions of years of biology to continue to exist. I seem to recall that such an asteroid would need 64,000 years to accomplish its goal. At the time, i concluded that this would represent an engineering project of the largest possible scale .. In the meantime, our highways and bridges would continue to fail, of course.

    --
    "There are 11 kinds of people: those who know binary, those who don't, and those who could not care less!"
  67. Your momma's so fat... by electricbern · · Score: 1

    ...they can shoot her to space to deflect an asteroid.

    --
    alias possession='chmod 666 satan && ls /dev > il && tail daemon.log'
  68. We think rather highly of ourselves by Mrrrrrrr · · Score: 1

    I wonder if anyone has thought about the difficulty of knowing precisely where an asteroid will strike as much as a year or more in advance to allow one of these "feather tickle" gravity tractors to have time to do its work. Two concepts: - Measurement error - Rounding error I suspect our ability to accurately forecast (i.e. measure) the exact path of an asteroid (and therefore the needed correction) is nowhere good enough for this. For a more realistic scenario, I suggest everyone go re-read Niven & Pournelle's "Lucifer's Hammer". "Ten million to one against ... million to one against ... ten thousand to one against..."

    1. Re:We think rather highly of ourselves by garompeta · · Score: 2, Informative

      I suggest you to check NASA's program for tracking asteroids: NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID TRACKING (NEAT). http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/neat.html

    2. Re:We think rather highly of ourselves by Mrrrrrrr · · Score: 1

      It isn't news that NASA has such a program. Will any of them claim to be able to determine a year (or more) in advance the position and exact flight path of an object to determine precisely whether or not it will strike earth?

    3. Re:We think rather highly of ourselves by garompeta · · Score: 1
      Did you even bother on reading the site?
      The Sentry monitoring system tracks asteroids that has a potential impact trajectory to Earth over the next 100 years.
      There are more programs like that, such as NEODyS and distributed computing like orbit@home.

      Just a detail the asteroid 1950DA trajectory is known to be very close to Earth on March 16 2880.

      Recheck the page I gave you before and care to browse it thoroughly since it will answer more of your questions.
      By the way i will leave you the site of NEODyS: http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main

    4. Re:We think rather highly of ourselves by Mrrrrrrr · · Score: 1

      No, I didn't. I just scanned it. A "potential impact trajectory" is far different than knowing that something will, for certain, dead center us and that we can apply a fraction of a ounce of tugboat force for the next 18 months to steer it off by a fraction of a degree. Exactly how much certainty do you think they would attach to the projected trajectory of something some 872 years out. Space isn't empty. Calculating it to endless decimal points doesn't help when there are a whole host of unknown variables (gravity of other objects, particles and matter in space, em effects, etc.)

    5. Re:We think rather highly of ourselves by garompeta · · Score: 1
      Again, read it. The methodology and its predictability is fully explained. I won't bother explaining to someone who doesn't bother to read and research a little bit even when I give them the two reliable sources with FAQs.

      (I am a little pissed, just a bit)

  69. "Long enough time" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    If you do the math, the shift is about 1.3 km during the first year. In ten years, the shift is 130 km, and in a hundred, 13000 km (~ one earth diameter). So we need to detect the rock a century before the impact, make a very precise calculation of its trajectory and park the rocket next to the asteroid for the whole duration possibly replacing or refueling it many times over.

  70. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  71. When can we test it? by seanonymous · · Score: 2, Funny

    It will be much easier to colonize the moon if we move it a bit closer.

  72. That's not an answer. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    You make nice word problems, but you solved none of them. The problem has been described... it involves thrusting enough to KEEP the towed object SUFFICIENTLY within the influence of gravity, WHILE pulling it away from its original trajectory.

    In order to "do that math", you need to have a plausible trajectory, the masses of the objects, the thrust (direction, mass, velocity, expansion charasteristics, etc.) of the engines, not to mention all the other variables... you also have to GET the vehicle there in the first place, and you need formulae to control the thrusts. For the purposes of this exercise, we can assume that the tow vehicle uses three thrusters as shown in the illustration of TFA.

    So, sorry, but a few words about calculating the gravity between a couple of bodies won't do it. The problem is VASTLY more complex than that. And if you CAN do that math, then LET'S SEE IT!!! Not just a few snide words about a tiny part of the overall problem that is, indeed, pretty trivial. So... if it is so damned easy, then let's see you do it. That was my challenge, and you have not even scratched the surface. In fact, you have actually done nothing at all to back up your words.

    The word problems are anything but "confusing" to me. I am simply waiting for you to put your money where your very large mouth is.

    1. Re:That's not an answer. by Urkki · · Score: 1

      Sounds like you're assuming the thrusters would be of a constant force and not controllable, that the tug would have to be put to precisely correct position and then stay there passively?

      Active control of suitable thrusters to maintain correct position would not be hard. Knowing exact position in relation to the asteroid would not be hard (simple radar). It would not require complex math and equation solving in the tug. It would just be "we're in this position, we should be two centimeters in that direction, change thrust accordingly, wait a millisecond for next radar reading, repeat".

      Complex and high-precision orbit calculations are only required when you want to get to a distant planet with minimal course corrections on the way, and then "only" to save fuel. Here the tug is spewing out propellant constantly, so actively adjusting the position on millisecond intervals doesn't cost anything extra.

    2. Re:That's not an answer. by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Perhaps there is some small angle it can thrust at that does not impact the object while still pulling it away... but that seems like an even more unlikely balancing act.

      The answer to your impossible question is two thrusters at 90 degrees to each other, both 45 degrees from the object. There are many correct answers, and that is one of them. The math involved is exceedingly simple.

      The problem has been described... it involves thrusting enough to KEEP the towed object SUFFICIENTLY within the influence of gravity, WHILE pulling it away from its original trajectory.

      Yes, I understand, but you obviously don't.

      The word problems are anything but "confusing" to me.

      I disagree. You seem to think they are exceedingly difficult, so you obviously don't understand. f=m1*m1*G/d^2. That's all you need to know for the force to pull it.

      In order to "do that math", you need to have a plausible trajectory, the masses of the objects, the thrust (direction, mass, velocity, expansion charasteristics, etc.) of the engines, not to mention all the other variables...

      No, you don't. I don't need the trajectory. Why? Because physics is relative. I need to pull the object to the side. No one specified how much. The masses are irrelevant to the math. They are variables, like all the others.

      I think I see it now. You know math, but not physics. You are attacking this like an algebra problem, not a physics problem. The answer isn't a number. The answer won't be the same if two different people do it. But, there is more than one right answer, and none of them are numbers. I gave you the equation for force, that's sufficient. It is the correct and accurate answer of the force you exert on the object. If you have two thrusters at 45 degrees to the object so your thrust doesn't impact it, then do the trig. The exact answer to your question is n thrusters at the same angle (theta) from the object exerting thrust equal to a force of (m1*m2*G/d^2)/(n*cos(theta)). That is the exact answer, with a crapload of assumptions. I understand your point in that you can assume some of the thrust hits the object, that gravity wells nearby may affect it, that aliens could land on it and push it the other way, whatever. Anything like that would have to be worked out *after* the problem and solution are both figured out. For the example given, I have expressed the exact answer in easy mathematica terms.

      So... if it is so damned easy, then let's see you do it. That was my challenge, and you have not even scratched the surface.

      You have the exact answer now. And now I'll sit back and wait for your complaints that I didn't take the solar wind into account... Do you know how to do physics? Even when the "big boys" do it, they don't solve it mathematically. Why? Because math can't account for unknown variables. You build in feedback loops. You have sensors that measure the distance to the object and change the thrust as needed. You take variables into account by moving the objects closer together or farther apart to change the forces between them. And every time they do, every feedback loop, every bit of math done, is the equation I gave (well, except if they want to turn the direction of force, in which case the jets will be firing unequally, but that isn't in the stated problem either). The math is exceedingly simple, and done for you. The execution is hard, and relies on many things other than just math.

  73. Rocket Surgeons by RpiMatty · · Score: 0

    Since when did /. have so many damn rocket surgeons?

    I guess we all read that spaceX launch article the other day, and are now qualified to design rockets and plan for doomsday scenarios.

  74. ST:TNG and Q by ThwartedEfforts · · Score: 1

    Someone's been watching too much Star Trek.

  75. Freeman Dyson's proposal by tinkerton · · Score: 2, Insightful

    In one of his books Dyson warns against the idea of blowing up approaching asteroids and proposes mass drivers that push the asteroid into a new orbit over extended periods, possibly years. Factors I can think of from the top of my head:

    - a mass driver needs mass, which it gets from the asteroid. So you don't have to sling huge masses towards the asteroids.
    - anchoring the mass drivers can be a problem if the asteroid is brittle. Bigger asteroids may be stronger but you also have to push harder.
    - you can have many mass drivers
    - the more time you have the better.

    So the special thing about a gravity tractor is that it's a reliable way to attach a mass driver to any type of asteroid. The tractor still needs mass drivers and it needs a lot of mass to build up the gravity. If you see the asteroid as a "soft waterball" that is hard to push, you could consider the tractor as an empty box with . It flies over, fills itself with parts of the asteroid and starts pulling.

  76. Instead of that.... by 10Ghz · · Score: 1

    How about changing the gravitational constant of the universe, therefore making the asteroid lighter and easier to move? And don't you start telling me how "changing the gravitational constant of the universe is beyond our capabilities." or some other crap like that!

    --
    Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
  77. Yes, except an asteroid can be spinning by Interfacer · · Score: 1

    In which case a surface mounted thruster is useless.
    It'll make the asteroid corkscrew along its trajectory but it won't deflect it to a large degree (depending on thrust and rotation).

    Whereas a mass hovering next to the asteroid pulls continuously to the same direction.

    And it is an order of magnitude easier to just hover nearby, vs landing on an unknown surface without damaging the equipment, anchoring and deploying the thrusters and making sure you land in a place where the thrusters can have an effect without sinking, falling over or breaking up the asteroid.

    The chances of success on the hover method are likely more than an order of magnitude better than the landing + thrust method.

    1. Re:Yes, except an asteroid can be spinning by iivel · · Score: 1

      Couldn't you use a combined approach? Hover nearby with an ion engine providing thrust towards the asteroid while another engine (ion, laser, I don't care) attempts to push away from it? This way you have direct pressure against the body without having to land. I'd assume overcoming the gravitational attraction with a balanced engine system would be considerably easier / faster than having to maintain orbital position with the asteroid without directing thrust towards it.

  78. gravity tractor eh? by Gearoid_Murphy · · Score: 1

    If NASA can call a rock a gravity tractor, then I'm calling my chair a hovercraft and calling my pentium 4 hal

    --
    prepare the survey weasels.
  79. That's still not an answer. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    I did not assume that the thrusters would be operating continuously. Quite the opposite.

    Be that as it may, you have kept asserting how easy it would be for you to calculate these factors, yet you have not -- even once -- actually made any calculations. I would have accepted some reasonable assumptions regarding mass, trajectory, etc... but now I am just laughing.

    1. Re:That's still not an answer. by Urkki · · Score: 1

      Calculate *what* trajectory?

      If you're talking about trajectory of the tug, I imagine the calculation would be pretty much like calculations done in a Harrier jet fighter when it's hovering... Not very difficult, I imagine.

      If you're talking about the trajectory of the tug-asteroid complex, then it could use even the same software that was used to determine that asteroid is going to hit Earth in the first place, just adding the tug to the calculations. Not to mention that current orbit, position, velocity and mass of the asteroid would be very precisely known, because the tug would help in measuring those.

      I'm not really sure what calculations you are after... Do you mean simply calculating that the tug would actually change the orbit of the asteroid? Well, that acceleration is already given in the summary for an asteroid of some mass, isn't it. So for some rough practical values, just do

        delta v = time * acceleration given

      or

        delta position = 0.5 * acceleration given * time^2

      or whatever.

    2. Re:That's still not an answer. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      This is too funny. Did you read the part about "I would accept some reasonable assumptions about trajectory"?

      You continue to refer to very minor parts of the whole as though they were the whole.

      I will let you off the hook. I was not trying to be pedantic; but I thought you were.

    3. Re:That's still not an answer. by Urkki · · Score: 1

      You keep evading. What trajectory are you talking about? Just clearly specify what trajectory you are talking about, and we'll see which of us is misunderstanding...

      I suspect it's you, but maybe you'll prove otherwise.

    4. Re:That's still not an answer. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I have stated twice that you could assume any reasonable trajectory. So it's not me who is misunderstanding. But the point is moot... I have no further interest in this conversation.

    5. Re:That's still not an answer. by Urkki · · Score: 1

      I assumed the tug hovering over the asteroid (as that's what it would do). With hovering, there's a feedback algorithm from location sensors to thrusters. As far as I understand English (not my native language), "trajectory" doesn't cover hovering, so there isn't any trajectory, reasonable or unreasonable.

      So it seems the misunderstanding is on you, or then it's misscommunication about the meaning of word "trajectory". Which is why I asked you to clarify what you mean by trajectory, which you failed to do, which in Internet conversations usually means you don't actually know... But let's drop this, then.

    6. Re:That's still not an answer. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      The tractor has to tow the object in question "away from its current trajectory". That is the whole point of it being there in the first place! As for current trajectory, I then said you could assume any reasonable trajectory for that to be. But there must BE one...

      Since those are the only contexts in which I mentioned trajectory, I do not see where there could be a misunderstanding.

    7. Re:That's still not an answer. by Urkki · · Score: 1

      Then I believe something like these proposed Apophis missions might be what you are after?

      On that page there is also a detailed description of Apophis orbit, both as pure numbers and as a layman explanation.

      Sure it is rocket science, but really, it's just undergrad student level of rocket science...