Slashdot Mirror
Scientist Forced To Remove Earthquake Prediction
Hugh Pickens writes to mention that Italian scientist Giampaolo Giuliani, a researcher at the National Physical Laboratory of Gran Sasso, recently gave warning about an earthquake that was to happen on March 29th of this year near L'Aquilla. Based on radon gas emissions and a series of observed tremors he tried to convince residents to evacuate, drawing much criticism from the city's mayor and others. Giuliani was forced to take down warnings he had posted on the internet. The researcher had said that a 'disastrous' earthquake would strike on March 29, but when it didn't, Guido Bertolaso, head of Italy's Civil Protection Agency, last week officially denounced Giuliani in court for false alarm. 'These imbeciles enjoy spreading false news,' Bertalaso was quoted as saying. 'Everyone knows that you can't predict earthquakes.' Giuliani, it turns out, was partially right. A much smaller seismic shift struck on the day he said it would, with the truly disastrous one arriving just one week later. 'Someone owes me an apology,' said Giuliani, who is also a resident of L'Aquila. 'The situation here is dramatic. I am devastated, but also angry.'"
sucks to be in italy! glad i'm several hundred km north of you!
suckers!
The boy who cried wolf was eventually proven right too. Living to demand an apology is too good for this guy.
The research put forward by Giuliani is from the 1980s and 1990s and was found to be completely unusable as a predictor. People make predictions of quakes all the time and some of those will be correct just by chance, which is likely the case here. Furthermore, finding correlation with radon does not mean it can be used as a predictor. You cannot evacuate cities for long periods just to find out that it was a false alarm.
That is heard quite often: "even with science, you can't..."
You know, some day we just might. Maybe not today, maybe never, but please, when someone who knows more than you about a certain topic warns you, listen!
Free beer is never free as in speech. Free speech is always free as in beer.
He has a higher accuracy rates than psychics AND the Vatican, yet none of them were blamed for not having reported it.
That's what you get for putting your neck out. If he had reported "due to global warming, an earthquake is coming...", then he would currently be regarded as an international hero.
I'm a satanic clam.
the government force you to take down posts on the internet? I know little of the Italian legal system, but even if he was pretending to be an expert, wouldn't that fall under some form of freedom of speech? We have pseudo-experts on /. all the time, wouldn't this fall under a similar "just ignore him" sentiment?
My immediate reaction is to say, "Ha! Science, bitches: It works!" and laugh at the officials who denounced the prediction. However, the very fact that the prediction was *so* precise, saying that the devastation would strike on a certain day, seems particularly irresponsible.
My thoughts go to those hurt in this incident. As the official says, though, it's not a habit to plan for stuff like this---perhaps it should become so.
Does anyone have data on how many truly false predictions have been made? Because one out of X might not be enough to condemn the politicos and glorify the scientist. Clearly these things do need to be managed carefully.
Web2.0: I love when people Flickr my cuil and digg my boingboing until my google is reddit and I start to yahoo
This is almost as ironic as when Bobby Jindal (governor of Louisiana and one-time preznitial hopeful) mocked funds for volcano monitoring in the federal budget, and a week later an Alaskan (monitored) volcano blew up, with an orderly response since the eruption had been predicted for some time. Attention politicians: science is not negotiable. It's part of that reality thing not on your side.
Remain calm! All is well!
That seems like a pretty good improvement in earthquake prediction. If this guy can consistantly predict earthquakes with a +/- of one week, I'd say he's doing something right, and should be listened to. But he has to do it consistantly. One out of one is a good start.
Halitosis - (n.) Halle Berry's Camel Toe.
It is quite easy to predict that an earthquake will happen. However, what is the accuracy to the where, when, and intensity? If you do not have enough accuracy then you just create panic. The article says that Giuliani was partially right! So what? A broken watch is right twice a day, that does not make it a scientist.
Did he give a time range or just a specific day? The mayor might have had the information badly digested for him by his minions, in which case it's a case of miscommunication. If he claimed to the day as the article suggests then it's his fault, he should have been more careful.
Also how often do they get false predictions? (broken clock right twice a day etc....)
Everyone knows you can't predict earthquakes!
And global warming too!
So, hah!
Somebody stick this chucklefuck in a room with Bobby 'We Don't Need No Stinkin' Volcanologists' Jindal. These two tools were clearly made for each other.
If indeed, it is "impossible to predict earthquakes, it seems to me that getting a minor quake on-the-day of prediction, and the major quake hitting a week later is pretty much as good as could possibly have been expected.
Now if all he did was guess, it'd be a whole different ball-game, but as far as I remember, doing this "science" thingy involves recognising a problem, taking measurements, postulating a theory to fit those measurements, and (sadly, in this case) testing that theory against further predictions it made. Seems like he followed the rule-book on that one...
Part of the problem, of course, is that people (including, one might say *especially*, elected officals) aren't good at assessing risk. They consider risk to be the consequences of an event, whereas really it's the consequences of an event multiplied by the probability of that event. It's why we look out for "global killer" meteorites, even though they are incredibly unlikely. The risk inherent in such a strike makes it worthwhile to keep putting in the effort at detecting them. It's easiest to illustrate when the fate of the whole world lies in balance, but the principle remains the same even for localised disasters such as this one...
So often, it comes down to better education being the key to good decision-making. Why is it that we let people who only want to run for power take on the mantle of power over us ? I recall a Sci-Fi story where on election, all a (wo)man's worldly goods were forcibly sold, and the cash amount held in trust. Once the successor appeared, the departing official was given access to his/her trust fund again - the implication being that you had to do well by everyone else before you could do well for yourself. I'm not suggesting this is workable, but perhaps an element of personal stake might be a useful thing for a politician to have... Perhaps then they'd listen to the scientist, and not just go on gut instinct...
Simon.
Physicists get Hadrons!
this man can pretty much go to any city on the planet right now, make an excitable announcement, and cause a mass exdodus
that's a rather interesting gift
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
you cant be right once and be believed,
you have to be right twice.
i look forward to any future seismic prediction technology.
complete with references.
of which this event will most likely be a hard data point.
Suppose the earthquake's precise location and time were known -- what then? Would there have been any way to spread out the total damage either over a larger time interval or over a greater radial distance?
We can somewhat control fires: we have a preventative measure -- public education and we have a cure -- firefighters. We can somewhat control floods: we have levees. We can't control tornadoes very well, though perhaps with some cloud seeding, we might be able to in the future.
But how does society mitigate the effects of earthquakes, especially in areas with very ancient architecture?
How dare you be inaccurate in your warning about the timing of a natural disaster? You caused me to be outraged and dismissive on record in the media! Now people think I'm a douchebag, and it's all your fault!
Must be a European thing. I'm sure nothing like that could ever happen here in the good ol' US of A.
'These imbeciles enjoy spreading false news,' Bertalaso was quoted as saying. 'Everyone knows that you can't predict the release of Duke Nukem Forever.'
It's pretty clear that no one owes this guy an apology (from the article)
Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after Giuliani predicted the quake was about to strike.
Yes, he predicted that a major earthquake would happen. But he didn't predict when with enough certainty or accuracy to make his prediction useful.
[Enzo Boschi, the head of Italy's National Geophysics Institute] said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes. "We have earthquakes, but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes."
It breaks my pluginses, my precious!
If he was legally compelled to fall silent in his warnings, whoever silenced him should be jailed for involuntary manslaughter or at least criminal negligence causing death. There should be equal consequences both for yelling "fire!" when there is none, and for yelling "no fire!" when there is.
A government is a body of people notably ungoverned - AC
/wink.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
Unusual readings from the planet Krypton were denounced as fear-mongering sensationalism.
Particularly brain dead politicians. Wasn't it also a local Italian prosecutor that decided the best way of dealing with a video of some kids bullying another one, was to sue Google?
I'm not saying Italy has a monopoly on boneheaded politico's but their particular brand of antics seem to stick on my mind.
Has anyone recorded earthquake prediction measurements and compared them? I would be curious to know which ones have been closest to the mark and on what frequency? I suspect different measurements are likely to be right some of the time, but not all the time, because the seismic triggers may vary from region to region.
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
This reminds me of a program I saw on the science channel, which predicts a major earthquake in Istanbul due to a series of quakes before it (it was something like 'earthquake storm'). Perhaps they could use this guy's methodology to try and estimate a time of impact?
"Our goal each year should be to increase the number of goals we set for ourselves!"
Suppose the earthquake's precise location and time were known -- what then? Would there have been any way to spread out the total damage either over a larger time interval or over a greater radial distance?
We can somewhat control fires: we have a preventative measure -- public education and we have a cure -- firefighters. We can somewhat control floods: we have levees. We can't control tornadoes very well, though perhaps with some cloud seeding, we might be able to in the future.
But how does society mitigate the effects of earthquakes, especially in areas with very ancient architecture?
i don't know, but maybe there's a way to put giant springs that absorb any translational motion and spread that out over time after the earthquake has already struck. i think any solution you may be looking for in this particular situation will have to be some sort of hack. you can't have it both ways -- have old buildings and expect modern protection.
Giuliani Mad!!!
Remember the Prophet units in the Empire Earth games? In ancient times they started out as religious shamans. But once you played up to modern times they were nutjobs wearing "The End Is Near!" sandwich boards. They could cause earthquakes.
"I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
The people who got the warning removed should pay for the earthquake damage.
Since people died, they should also be charged with homocide.
It sounds like the guy kinda went about it the wrong way. He should have just had a note or a webpage up with his current data and predictions with chance of an event happening on any given day. Folks would treat it sort of like a weather forecast.
Heck, when it comes to weather, we like to look at the live radar maps and make our own decisions. Hey it's going to be raining for the next hour or two... ;) We aren't quiet there for earthquakes, yet.
"Italy earthquake leaves 130 dead and scores more trapped under rubble" http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/06/italy-earthquake-victims I'd say being off by a week or so in this case isn't bad science at all.
I shouldn't be making jokes at a time like this. I'm sorry. Please mod my previous comment down. Thank you.
Science demands more than a single data point of "within a week". He needs to get more data points so we determine whether he was just lucky or whether his predictions have some real value.
If you throw out predictions left and right, well sooner or later you may get lucky. That doesn't mean you are actually any good at predicting. The predictive value of a model doesn't come from getting a single answer right or near right, it comes from accurately modeling reality. That means having a track record of predicting events, and not making predictions when there are no events.
As an extreme example I could make a computer program that predicts a major earthquake every single day. You input a day, it says "Major quake will happen." Well, that program would occasionally be right. Any time an earthquake happened I could claim my software predicted it. However that wouldn't me meaningful, in the face of the massive number of false positives, the thousands upon thousands of days where it was wrong.
So ya, I need to see some real data that shows that his software had a reasonable prediction rate, not just that he happened to get lucky this time.
Hi from Italy. In retrospect it wasn't science but a rather effective guess (I don't know how lucky, and if he can actually repeat it with the same precision; it's not my job) based on empiric hints. Now, I think that the authorities did well when they decided NOT to base their actions - or instigate terror - on that "prediction" (it would be absurd: block every activity and move a lot of people for days just for a guess). But it is really irritating to me seeing how this person was rather roughly scolded and sued; it seems he did his best with the tools he had at hand, knowing they are not "established truth", knowing he was risking his reputation; even if he was (or would have been) wrong, it takes lots of courage. Usually, italian official instituctions and italians don't mix well, there's frequently a lot of mistrust. Guess why.
Here's quote from a USAToday article.
Pezzopane, the provincial president, said residents may have been lulled into complacency because so many smaller quakes had jolted the area, including two or three earlier in the night.
"Considering what happened, a bit more concern, more attention might have saved lives," she said.
National officials insisted no quake can ever be predicted and that no evacuation could have been ordered on the basis of the recent jolts.
"There is no possibility of making any predictions on earthquakes. This is a fact in the world's scientific community," Civil protection chief Guido Bertolaso told reporters
Talk about saving face...
They're not completely wrong - there currently is no scientifically acceptable method of predicting earthquakes that is time-tested, but at the very least, they could give some credit to Giuliani for seemingly predicting this earthquake, and offer him a full apology for calling him an imbecile.
Best "String" Ever!
There's a guy in the Bay Area who claims he can predict earthquakes with high accuracy and offers up the fact that he has predicted every recent large earthquake. But as one scientist commented (borrowing from somewhere, I believe) that, "indeed, he has predicted 150 of the last 8 earthquakes."
Based on what we know so-far, he predicted a destructive quake on March 29. This did not happen. Prediction failed.
But there was another earthquake that day. Big deal - isn't that what "seismically active" means?
Just looking at the current Northern California map I see over 170 quakes listed. And that's only the last 7 days where this predicted event was 9 days before the quake. I'm not surprised there was a "smaller" quake that day. There are usually quite a few every day.
As to the charge of "silenced", I'll wait and see what that really means. If he was ordered to destroy scientific publications with his claims or cease his research discussions it's one thing. If they declined to once-again drive vans with bullhorns around town having falsely reported an imminent quake just a month earlier, it's another thing entirely. It will probably end up being somewhere between those extremes.
Radon emission changes have preceded earthquakes. But they have also "preceded" non-quakes. And quakes have been preceded by the lack of change in radon as well. Hardly a reliable predictor, so far.
One should not lambaste officials without looking at the scientist's track-record. I have yet to see a single item suggesting that he had a serious track-record of predicting with any reasonable level of accuracy the time, place and magnitude of an event as well as "safe" periods.
I think it would have been more responsible to just lay out the facts. There is evidence that certain events we are monitoring (radon, ground-water changes, full/new-moon, ...) tend to precede an earthquake. We feel the risk is higher than normal. Please be sure you are as prepared as possible with the usual recommended supplies of food, water, tools, etc. and consider training if you haven't done-so in the past.
~~~~~~~
"You are not remembered for doing what is expected of you." - Atul Chitnis
Yes, he predicted this earthquake. Being +/- 1 week is pretty decent. But as others have said, it could've been a lucky shot. If you can make multiple predictions like this you'll gain credibility towards future predictions and people will start listening.
I do agree too, he predicted the quake on the 29th. It didn't come. How long are people supposed to stay away? If he'd been 2 weeks off, or a month, would people still be upset at the politicians? Had he made other predictions in the past that proved untrue?
There are too many questions without answers at this point. It could've been a lucky guess.
Guess somebody is owed an apology see this http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/04/06/20090406ItalyQuake06-ON.html
This is a critical component to any good disaster movie from the 70s.
- Towering Inferno: Building developer refuses to cancel dedication party after bad wiring is found and fire starts.
- Jaws: Town mayor refuses to close beach after attack from big shark.
Come to think of it, Tommy Lee Jones's and Pierce Brosnan's Volcano movies were the same deal...
let me tell you as a citizen, i would go to kick that mayor in the face.
Read radical news here
sounds funny, but insightful in reality.
Read radical news here
your analogy sucks major tit. and i mean MAJOR.
Read radical news here
for, if they had taken them seriously, instead of MORONICALLY shitting him in a court, and did some extra research of their own, they may have concluded that it could be good to evacuate, OR at least take measures. now 100.000 people homeless, there are only 2000 tents.
Read radical news here
le idiot. 100.000 people homeless now, and there are only 2000 tents. you deserve a kick in the face.
Read radical news here
I predict that there will be an earthquake some time in the next couple months near your house. Go ahead and pack up your shit and move out for awhile. You aren't? Well why not? I mean just because I don't have a track record, doesn't mean I won't be right.
Same situation here. So the guy got a prediction sort of right (off by a week). Ok that means nothing. You don't start trusting predictive models until they are proven accurate over a period of time. This means correctly predicting when an event happens, and not predicting one when there's not. It has to be good at BOTH things. If you get something that almost always predicts the events, but does do by simply predicting events all the time, it is useless.
One data point isn't proof. In science, we don't prove things true, we demonstrate them to be not false. That is an important distinction. What that means is a single test doesn't prove that you are right beyond any doubt, it means that it shows there is less reason to doubt you are right. As more and more tests are done, there is less and less reason to believe you might be wrong.
So you show me a model that has correctly predicted 100 earthquakes to within a week, with only 2 false positives, and I'll say it is data to hang you hat on. That thing calls quake, you'd better get the fuck out. You show me a model that has correctly predicted 3 quakes to within a week and only 1 false positive, I'll say you've got something interesting but need more research before I'm sold. Show me something that has correctly predicted a single quake with no false positives, I say I need more data points. You show me something that has predicted 1 quake right, and has 100 false positives, I'll say it's shit.
So which is it here? Does the guy have a good track record, or is this his first data point? If it is the first correct prediction then listening to it is just as valid as listening to my prediction.
Type "radon earthquake" into google.
where the good guy find proofs an imminent disaster but nobody listen to him. That area was under an "earthquake storm" since december. http://tinyurl.com/cn47cf so putting him in the right context you can see he's predictions were quite inaccurate. Also, did he used official channels to publish his data? no, he just phoned sulmona mayor and told him his city would have been erased on 29th march which... didn't happen.
Why we need gov to gurantee our life? Why we are not allowed to make our own decision on our life? Why we can not get the information to make these decisions? Why the gov say is always correct?
I do not see any reason we share the same idea on the plannet. Why giving out a false prediction is crime? We should not make the news a trust worthy source of information, that is against the nature against the society. We need to teach our citizen that all news could be false.
We need responsible citizen not ants.
The next time he makes a prediction locally, regardless of government acceptance or official response, people will listen. This isn't a good situation for him at all. Now if he makes a prediction he is bearing all the liability for problems that may occur (economic losses, panic, etc) if he is wrong. The best case is for the government to recognize that, although radon isn't a universal predictor of earthquake activity, perhaps it IS an indicator in that particular region. Thus if he sees the same behavior that preceded this last quake, the government, in an official capacity, can take proper measures. I don't think having everyone evacuate is a reasonable response, because the time frames are too nebulous. Those living in older residences, prone to extensive earthquake damage, could perhaps stay with friends or family temporarily. That is the type of reasonable recommendation a government can make, opposed to the automatic panic and exodus his next prediction will cause.
So the real question is has he taken the government's reaction as a personal slight, thus prompting him to use his new-found influence and fame next time around to operate above the government? This does present an interesting moral situation, especially due to the extensive negative repercussion he could face next time around if he is wrong.
Better known as 318230.
Italian men are vain, arrogant, posturing, bully control freaks (OCD), which is why they get laid so much and is the only reason I could find that there are 2 to 3 times as many slurs against italians than any other nationality.
The guy method DID confirm other earthquakes in the past , (2001, Turkey one, 2002 another italian one etc. read the full history in italian) his method based on radon detections does give a quite good approximation, given that he did it as a personal side project etc. I do say that one week is very good approx. You can put major critical activities on hold for couple of weeks, the game will surely worth the candle. Italy needs to be forced into legality by EU. For its own good.
In other news many still deny global warming despite what these so-called 'scientists' are telling us.
Sigh.
Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself. -- Leo Tolstoy
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/04/06/italy.quake/index.html
Well, you should believe the scientists when they say something based on facts
Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
Translated: "I am not a douchebag, insensitive American"
I listen to both RIAA and non-RIAA stuff if I like the music, tangential business/politics nonwithstanding.
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/4/20090406/twl-italie-seisme-expert-bd5ae06_2.html
[[...
Il y a environ un mois, des camionnettes équipées de haut-parleurs avaient sillonné L'Aquila, ville de 68.000 habitants à 100 km à l'est de Rome, en demandant aux résidents d'évacuer leur logement.
Cette mesure avait provoqué la colère du maire de la cité et une plainte avait été déposée auprès de la police pour "diffusion d'informations alarmistes". Gioacchino Giuliani avait été contraint de retirer de son site internet les résultats de ses recherches.
"Il y a maintenant des gens qui devraient me faire des excuses et auront sur la conscience ce qui s'est passé", a déclaré Giuliani.
Les premières secousses telluriques avaient été ressenties à la mi-janvier dans la cité médiévale et elles avaient continué à se produire à intervalles réguliers.
La protection civile italienne avait organisé le 31 mars à L'Aquila une réunion de la commission des risques majeurs, groupe de scientifiques spécialisés dans les catastrophes naturelles, afin de rassurer la population. ...]]
Translation:
[[...
Approximately a month ago, vans equipped with loudspeakers were driven through L'Aquila, town of 68.000 inhabitants, located 100 km East from Rome, asking the residents to evacuate their housing. This measurement had caused the anger of the mayor of the city and a complaint had been lodged with the police force for "alarmist broadcasting". Gioacchino Giuliani had been constrained to withdraw from its Internet site the results of its research.
" There are now people who should make me excuses and will have on the conscience what has happened" , Giuliani declared. The first earth tremors had been felt in mid-January in the medieval city and they had continued to occur with regular intervals.
Italian civil protection had organized on March 31 in L'Aquila a meeting of the commission of the major risks, groups scientists specialized in the natural disasters, in order to reassure the population. ...]]
There is, at the moment, no way to accurately predict an earthquake. This is NOT correct. What is correct is this "There is, at the moment, no way to accurately predict an earthquake WITHIN THE LIMITS NEEDED FOR A SOCIETY TO COST EFFECTIVLY REACT TO A PREDICTION".
Put more simply, I can 100% accurately predict that an earthquake is going to hit. Give or take a hundred years. Tokyo for instance WILL be struck with in the next millenium.
That however is going to be a bit to wide a margin for an evacuation. Sure, you could argue that people shouldn't live in danger zones, but so much of the world is. We could, if we had the will, move ourselves. Make for instance the areas under sea level in Holland farmland and go and live on the high areas (well, above sea level anyway) that are currently farm land. We could, but who would want to? Live out in the untamed wilderness of Gelderland and move out of the big city metropolis of Amsterdam (pop > 750.000).
This guy claims to have predicted an earthquake. He didn't. Not with enough accuracy anyway. You can't just evacuate a city for a week. As harsh as it may sound, the few people who died this time just ain't worth the cost. Oh sure, if you say that you will be denounced as a cold and heartless person but JUST you try and raise the taxes to pay for evactuations of a couple of weeks around every disaster warning. Then you will see just how willing the average voter is to pay for saving lives.
What would be far more sensible is indeed to take the long view, but rather then evacuate, simply build better buildings. If you know an earthquake is likely in the next 100 years, build buildings that can withstand them and reinforce the ones you got. That works. Reliably and you know what? Better buildings are good even if the ground isn't shaking as they won't just collapse with a gas explosion or because of tunneling.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Nope.
You are talking about the Government man. The Big Boys.
Politicians and Governments don't apologize: EVER.
In fact i would not be surprised if the Government now charged him with involuntary slaughter for NOT bringing the early warning notice to the Government's attention.
Yes, i know this is completelty asinine, and the logic in it will assplode your head, but that is how Governments' react when faced with potential truth and the fact that they were wrong.
In fact, if this guy were in USA, he would be investigated by the Secret Service, FBI and local OSHA branch for various violations:
a) Violating the state secrets act, which was applied retroactively to panic warnings.
b) Professional misconduct by not following "rules" and "procedure" to warn the Government through proper channels and instead opting for creating sensations on a public media unauthorisedly and illegally.
c) Creating panic with a view to spreading eco-terrorism (this one is from the local council and county)
d) Civil Disobedience of not obeying government rules governing state employees.
e) Spreading falsehoods (completely discounting the fact that he was right), with a view to creating panic in public and war-profiteering.
f) Declared "person of interest" by the FBI and the local Sherriff for "causing" earthquakes by predicting them.
Hell, if i were District Attorney, i would make more charges against this professor than this list, and make them stick.
And i would plead with the judge to send him to prison for 10 years at least.
After all, if i fail AND i apologize to this professor, the Governer and Mayor is liable to be sued for deliberate manslaughter and be forced to resign...Is that what the people want at this hour of agony???
Easy way is to shut this guy down completely. (Just like they sued and sentenced the college boy who outbid oil companies in Utah).
"Doing what i can, with what i have." ~ Burt Gummer
That's how scientific progress works. The real geniuses are usually thought of as imbeciles.
Of course, the imbeciles are also thought of as imbeciles, and it's often hard to differentiate the two. :3
I thought that adding some local view would add some colour, so here's my 2âc
There's been some back and forth on the national papers about this earthquake prediction, liberally mixed with rumors about stray dogs wailing, etc etc. I fully expect this to continue, since basic scientific method is not the order of the day here.
As much as I think that further research by the guy in question will be valuable, the history of earthquake prediction has been rather dismal, insofar as many times over, after a quake, it's been relatively easy to find some scientist having predicted it, while the actual "before the fact " experience has materially changed in the ability to foresee what ( we do have seismic maps, etc.), but not the when.
"If a boss demands loyalty, give him integrity. But if he demands integrity, give him loyalty." (John Boyd, 1927-1997)
I heard the inteview with this alleged "scientist" and he's a total lunatic
he's not even a scientist: he calls himself a "technician" that needs support from scientits to bring forward his researches
the area is subject to continuos minor quakes since months and he's predicting quakes every other day
Actually he predicted the earthquake to happen in Sulmona, some 50km away. So, if people had actually evacuated, they could well have been in L'Aquila a week later.
What is left out of this story (and most others on the Internet) is a key part of this guy's prediction methodology: the phases of Venus http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2009/04/06/2009-04-06_italian_scientist_warned_of_deadly_laqui-1.html .
I could buy emissions of radon gas providing insight into the timing of earthquakes, but I have trouble understanding how the phases of Venus have anything to do with when an earthquake will occur.
It seems like most of the news reports on it have the same problem, so to keep the story an "OMG, this guy predicted it and the evil bureaucrats covered it up," they left that part out.
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
Regardless of what your tea leaves say, he was only a week off
You only need 365 predictions per year to hit the exact date. Would the correct one be a genius or just lucky?
A 1 week margin means a prediction covers 7 days on both sides. That's 15 days. You can cover a full year that way with 24 people making one prediction each.
Which is probably a smaller number of people than there are earthquake researchers in Italy.
I lost my sig.
Cognizant of the failings of rusting rebar, engineers have devised alternatives to the usual unfinished tempered steel rebar, including stainless steel and new polymer fiber possibilities. More here. Though more expensive, using these other options can improve the lifetime of the structure by avoiding the deterioration in the surrounding concrete caused by expanding rust.
Cheers,
"What in the name of Fats Waller is that?"
"A four-foot prune."