Google Funding the Next Big One?
wdavies writes "According to this New York Times article, Google is funding a controversial deep drill geothermal project north of San Francisco. Apparently the company, AltaRock, omitted to disclose that the same deep drilling caused a major quake in Basel, Switzerland when it was last used. Given the notorious geological instability of the Northern Californian coast, this strikes me as kind of dumb — and given the known likelihood of this technique producing earthquakes, somewhat EVIL."
Also the article says it's "nearly the same" drilling technology as the one that caused the quake in Basel while the summary says it's the same. It seems it's not the same though. The article goes on to say:
Officials at AltaRock, with offices in Sausalito, Calif., and Seattle, insist that the company has learned the lessons of Basel and that its own studies indicate the project can be carried out safely. James T. Turner, AltaRock's senior vice president for operations, said the company had applied for roughly 20 patents on ways to improve the method.
I don't know about Basel but I'm certain these guys know they would face serious legal/criminal action if they didn't know for sure it was safe.
My work here is dung.
It seems to me that the only thing a large drill may do is release the pressure that's building up. It's not going to "cause" an earthquake per se, it's going to release one before it happens natually, which will likely be less intense than if it had been allowed to build up pressure in the first place.
Is going to happen sometime in the future regardless of what we do (baring some major advances in geological technology and the ability to control earth quakes which from a geek perspective would be pretty damn cool, but I'm not holding my breath).
Plate tectonics causes quakes! Sometimes, however, drilling *releases* stress, triggering quakes that were already going to happen, the drilling just throws the straw on the camel's back, so to speak.
In fact, technologies like this could be useful in doing controlled release of earthquakes, such that you can pick the time it can occur so people are ready for it.
And just how do they know that the drilling caused the quake?
Probability of a major earthquake if google does not drill: 1
If there is a quake, at least it will release some tension now rather than a year from now when it will be greater.
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
It should be possible to avoid the Big One and instead have a lot of small quakes at predictable places and times.
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Sounds like a cheaper way to end the housing crisis in California.
Does this mean google is now a super-evil corporation(TM). Will we have James Bond types trying to bring it down? (disclaimer: not enough sleep, lack of coffee and to much TV are my excuses)
Deja Moo: The feeling you've heard this bullsh*t before.
The heaviest quake was a 3.4 on the richter scale. That's not major. California had one of this magnitude just this week.
"omitted to disclose" doesn't even make sense. It's either "omitted" or "did not disclose". What exactly are they trying to say?
Apparently (it's hard to say for sure, since all the stories I found were kinda sensationalist) the project in Basel caused a magnitude 3.4 quake.
That's an extremely small earthquake.
Big trucks going a construction site also rumble and shake the ground when the go past. People bitch, but it's not considered a reason to stop construction projects (except perhaps in very exceptional circumstances).
Frankly the furor seems to be more the "OMG they're doing something we don't understand which doesn't involve overeating and reality television! Stop them!" sort than it does a well-grounded and considered opposition.
We live, as we dream -- alone....
This is a really interesting idea, the kind of stuff that makes for thoughtful sci-fi and even more thought in real life. What if we could tell the Big One was coming in the next decade but had the technology to loose its destruction at a time of our choosing?
How would such a thing be done? How would you convince the populace and governing bodies that it was necessary? How could you make absolutely sure it was necessary?
How would insurers decide to react? Where would everyone go? What about those refuse to leave? Are there temporary measures that could improve structural stability for 24 hours? What about people who couldn't afford them?
What are the potentials for abuse? How would the specifics of the release be affected by politics? If there were a way to control where the greatest damage would occur, how would it be chosen? Who would choose? Would the people in the way have a say? What kind of legal liability would those involved at different levels have?
A controlled quake release could save thousands, even tens of thousands of lives. But once there's an element of human control to unexpected disaster, all bets are off as to how our civilization deals with the responsibility.
Your mind is clear / The things that you fear / Will fade with how much you / Believe what you hear
The allure of limitless energy from beneath the surface of the earth is enticing, but we have such short memories. Do nobody behind this project remember the ill-fated British INFERNO project from the 70s?
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I'm shocked at how good people feel about this, and how much license many of the commenters are willing to give to this venture even if it is known to possible trigger a significant seismic event. What if this were being funded by Exxon instead of KP + Google? I doubt people would be as dismissive of the risks involved. also, filing for patents on improving the process is the whole point of funding something like this, not building a single power station, but gaining the know-how and experience necessary to scale it and the IP protections necessary to prevent others firms from exploiting the knowledge gained. That's just _at best_ spin; because clearly, if something is patented it has to be safer.
This sounds like one of those really bad disaster movies of the 70's starring Charlton Heston. Oh wait... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0071455/
I think this is will be skynet's first strike against mankind.
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I would rather have a number of small quakes rather than one large one. If this results in pressure being gradually released from a fault zone, I would consider it an asset, not a liability.
"To those who are overly cautious, everything is impossible. "
any crazy ideas on how to harness energy of triggered quakes? mine: carve a large pattern around the area to direct the quake at a giant pendulum which will then swing the gays straight... and the straights gay. for science!
was drilling in La La Land. They should have drilled in Montana, the Dakotas, anywhere where people are semi-reasonable about things. This project will be stopped, bet on it. It will join the power line that was stopped from connecting a large solar farm to San Diego, the LNG seaports that were stopped from being built anywhere along the left coast and wound up in Mexico, the area where they refused to build powerplants for about 10 years and not only caused themselves rolling blackouts but made their competitive position in the electricity market so weak that Enron could easiy butt-F them, as well as their being one of 5 states with diesel fuel standards so stringent that it is impossible for anyone to import or build a diesel car clean enough to be sold there, and on and on. California as a political entity is non-viable, it's just taking a while to totally collapse...
Steve, is that you?
Crack In The World... with physics that makes "Mission To Mars" look plausible. ^_^
Someone check to see if Google has been buying up useless desert land in Arizona and Nevada!
Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
"Caused?"
I defy you to prove that.
The forces involved in an earthquake are so far beyond what man can control or cause that it is not even funny.
Dog is my co-pilot.
Oh, lighten up. Everyone's sick of waiting.
It's not evil at all. They are secretly buying up land in Nevada and Arizona and hoping that the entire state of California will drop into the ocean. Then they will own the western coast, build a new silicon valley, and set up massive off-shore server farms driven by wave power. From there it's a small leap to world dominance! Evil? I think not... just Genius! Just don't tell Superman or he'll spin the earth backwards until the Internet is back to Mosaic and Excite.
Play me online? Well you know that I'll beat you. If I ever meet you I'll "/sbin/shutdown -h now" you. -Weird Al, kinda.
Geothermal energy is bar-none, the cleanest, cheapest energy there is. We should be tapping Yellowstone for energy.
"Today, Google made Earth-shattering news when..."
Table-ized A.I.
injecting high pressure water CAN trigger them. And make them much worse. And yes, this is about injecting water to be heated. With that said, I suspect that they have done their homework and figured things out. The venture in EU was a disaster, because the company did not do their homework and literally hit a known fault.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
If something sound dangerous this sure is it. The best way to acquire more energy is use less of it. Playing with the forces of nature is dangerous. If it caused problems in one place it will cause problems in California. I doubt it will cause the big one, but I can see it causing small shock waves that will be disruptive, destructive, and ultimately cost more resources and energy than it replaces. I also worry for the people who would be working there if a geothermal event were to occur such as a small volcano would they be able to escape before it killed them
To err is to be human, to really screw up takes a computer and a human.
This thing is probably worse than some rootkits.
Who cares about an earthquake? Some little Eichmanns might get hurt. The atmosphere won't be harmed at all. Nothing evil about it.
Think Green!
...they'll unlease an inferno!
That's a good point...
"essentially creating a steam explosion several miles underground in under conditions that probably have more unknowns than knowns, all in an area with known levels of significant instability seems like a prospect deserving of extreme scrutiny."
Let's try the experiment and scrutinize the results.
-- Terry
ARIZONA BAY!!!! SWEET!!
Google is combining forces with Hulu. "An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy!" Google rationalizes their participation on the grounds that there's too much information in the world to efficiently search, so by eliminating one rich source of data (California), they can reduce the amount of information they need to index and thus keep their search results more relevant, which they consider a good thing.
Long? What do you mean the signature at the bottom of every comment I post on Slashdot is too lo
NIMBY NIMBY NIMBY NIMBY! We like green power, just not in our back yard...
Cause we will be screwed by LHC loooonnnggg before
He can't walk, but he can fly
Steven E. Koonin, the under secretary for science at the Energy Department, said the earthquake issue was new to him, but added, "We're committed to doing things in a factual and rigorous way, and if there is a problem, we will attend to it."
I have zero understanding of the technology being used here, nor of what might constitute rigorous risk identification, monitoring and response. The article doesn't help much in that it appears to focuses on the polar - people who assert little or manageable risk(s) and on the other end those who think just about anything (bad) could happen.
At the risk of trivializing something complex that I know jack shit about, I'll note I can't tell whether Mr. Koonin's comment is indicative of solid forethought and comprehensive contingency planning or a talking point meant to reassure listeners with no actual content behind it. An informative article might have detailed some of the problems that have been considered and the monitor/identify/respond/mitigate work that should now stand behind those scenarios.
I despise this sort of sensational drivel that whips people up while giving them near zero content to build some understanding on which to stand. It leaves you wondering whether you should a) have faith that people putting millions of dollars into a complex project using a less than mature technology do indeed have a clue and are professionals who do their homework (c.f. this example that was supposed to create a black hole and suck the Earth into it but didn't (yet anyway) ) or b) be convinced that greedy money-grubbing fsckheads with no ethics and bereft of a single ounce of humanity are at it again.
Seems to me that the people who insure these sorts of projects are likely thinking about this sort of shit a lot. Sure enough, using a tool available even to journalists , it turns out that "As no standards have been established for this kind of insurance yet, the co-operation between project developer and insurer is of major importance. The clear definition of scenarios, best- and worst-cases, measures and procedures is crucial in order to produce a reliable and transparent policy. Both the stimulation concept and the layout of the test program for the certification of results should be specified in advance and form part of the insurance policy" [link left as an exercise for the interested reader].
How about some follow-up by The Gray Lady on what this actually means?
I'll admit being long-winded here, but I honestly have no intent to troll. That this article is accepted for print at a international newspaper of record is just beyond me. Where the hell is the science? Where is the investigative reporting?
[17] Leary, T., White, C., Wood, P. R., Bhabha, W. D., and Wirth, N. Lambda calculus considered harmful. In Proceedings
The Big One sponsored by mysterious billionaires? http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090264/
I'm sure the Dharma Initiative did something like this in the 70's.. Didn't it set off a nuke or something?
The Machines who control the Matrix have started drilling. We are doomed.
Thing is, there's high probability that a 3.x earthwuake will happen in the drilling area around the time of the drilling, whether they drill or not, and most certainly people wouldn't even notice. Unless, of course, seismologists will especially listen to that moment and say the drilling caused the quakes, which they won't be able to prove, since such quakes are so common it's not even news.
:P :D: It's terrifying [...] What's happening to all these rocks that they're busting into a million pieces?
Fear of quakes should not justify dropping the idea of using drilled geotermics, it's stupid.
Unless you ask common people for advice
I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I can think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
Yes, google is now evil, they're finding projects that use RFC 3514 -- the Evil Bit.
Well, the evil drill bit anyway.
If you want to see some really great informative graphics look at the what is presented along with the article: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/06/23/us/Geothermal.html
I'm amazed to see such well presented, interesting and informative 3D and 2D graphics in a "mainstream" (non-technical) periodical. Take a look!
Anyway, back to the topic. The article also said that advanced geothermal power could produce "as much as 60,000 TIMES the nationâ(TM)s annual energy usage!" (Emphasis mine).
Doesn't anyone else find this utterly remarkable? Again, (looking at the spiffy graphics) the power looks widely dispersed GEOgraphically (ha ha) and other than these minor (and yes 3-4 magnitude is minor) quake issues shouldn't be a problem. This could EASILY and COMPLETELY solve our energy problems? Repeat: 60,000 TIMES! (not 60,000 percent which also wouldn't be bad). Even if only 1% of that amount was economically recoverable that's still 600 TIMES! So what am I missing here? (Sorry about the hyperventilating, lots of coffee).
I mean in California who's going to notice another earth quake?
Just because the technique causes tremors doesn't mean it's going to cause the next big one they get quakes all the time in CA anything this technique causes probably wont even interrupt dinner
This just smacks of more tabloid science like all that bull about the LHC
Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.
Well heck, i have to admit that if they cause the next big one, and it is as big as the headline said... At least they do evil in a really grand way, not the sloppy: 'oh we forgot to fix critical bug x last year....' , but destroy one of worlds biggest cities to shut out some minor competition... well got my respect :-)
If you don't like my sig then don't read it.
doesn't it look like some old James Bond movie ?
The world belongs to those who get up early. - I'm far from being the king of Earth then
The 3.4 they had in Basel looks to be just another daily occurrence in those parts.
Did you not bother to even look at the post you're replying to? There's a little detail about the epicenter being considerably shallower than "natural" quakes and much more energy being transferred to the surface.
I don't see how funding this research would be considered "evil". From the article it seems that the company has learned from the past mistakes and are at doing things differently, as long as the earthquakes are minimal and harmless the benefits will be worth it. Now if there was a good chance that it would be a disaster then sure I'd say it was not the brightest move for Google or anyone else to pitch in on the project, but that doesn't seem to be the case.
As for voting, in America if it isn't a republican or democrat you are out of luck.
And this will remain the case as long as we have a single-vote, winner-take-all system. WIth something more like approval voting, people would be able to vote Libertarian and still vote for a candidate who has a chance of winning...which means that a Libertarian candidate might actually stand a chance of winning.
So support election system reform if you want to really make your voice heard.
Dan Aris
Fun. Free. Online. RPG. BattleMaster.
Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this
Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks...
If I have seen further it is by stealing the Intellectual Property of giants.
ah yeas - http://www.jamesbondwiki.com/page/Max+Zorin
step 1: cause a quake in California
step 2: ????
step 3: PROFIT!!
May I remind you that Iceland has been doing that for a while. ;)
Japan also started with no eQuake
Has for Basel, Geothermal Explorer Ltd. are still in business and still drilling in Basel... The NYT is not well known for it's scientific rigorousness.
you might enjoy this paper Characterisation of the Basel 1 enhanced geothermal system
It tells you everything about the process what actually happened (i.e. they followed a plan which included microseismic maximum threshold), thta the drilling by itself has absolutely nothing to do with the mini-eQuake (ML of 3.4 was the maximum reached and it's pretty minor. There are probably 50,000+ eQuake like that every year on the planet) and this 2006 geothermal well has been successfully stimulated, is active and still used as a test plot...
"...if they didn't know for sure it was safe"
There is no way they can know the complete soil mechanics in 3D in a deep drilling process. It's not like predicting the path of a billiard ball or something. Unless... of course! They're going to use Google Earth(TM) to map it out!
I saw the movie twice; the giant drilling rig goes in right next to the Golden Gate Bridge.
Your shitty, overpriced state is bankrupt, and you're dragging the rest of us down with you. Even now, that dick Henry Waxman wants to increase the price of energy for every household by $3800 per year according to the CBO. You think the rest of us can't see carbon trading for the shell game that it is? Get a clue: buying indulgences doesn't actually reduce pollution. It just passes the buck on to the customer, a.k.a. the middle class.
Why is your fucking state broke? You live in a virtual gold mine of talent and natural resources, yet your leaders can't accomplish the most basic executive function of creating and sticking to a budget. Are you all idiots? People are feeling overtaxed and fleeing for states with friendlier tax codes and more fiscal restraint like Texas, yet still the only solution your leaders can come up with is to raise taxes, and finally, FINALLY to cut some entitlements. God forbid some fat welfare mammy with 4 kids and no job doesn't get her free money! I'm tired of your state shitting on the rest of us. You got yourself into this mess, now you dig yourself out. Stop robbing the taxpayers in the other 49 states.
We have been running oil well drills in to the earth, and sucking out all the juice, water, geothermal, whatever for years. No one has questioned seriously if oil well drilling causes earth quakes. Now that we are drilling for geothermal there is this totally myth being pushed all over that geothermal causes earthquakes.
It just so happens that the best geothermal locations also happen to be near the most active seismic locations. Stands to reason that once in a while when drilling there are going to be earthquakes in the area, not that geothermal causes earthquakes.
How is this science, or even logical?
GET A CLUE PEOPLE!!!
Living in Chile
The hot dry rock technology is still being developed. The injection wells mentioned in the graphic (at the Geysers) are injecting to enhance the existing aquifer, rather than creating the fractures needed to heat the water.
Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
1 - Write a story involving Google
2 - Find a way to include the word EVIL
3 - Blog it, post it, spam it, be sure to put up Google Adwords advertising
4 - Profit!
I think it will be evident that the benefits VASTLY OUTWEIGH the risks. California has to start producing more of its own power sometime.
Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
Not that I like Google a bit, but this is all a red herring. Drilling does not cause quakes. It just advances the occurrence of quakes waiting to happen, reducing their potential strenght. It is not a coincidence that the quake in Basil occurred in the same place as a devastating quake 650 years before. Drilling released part of the accumulated energy since, in the form of a smaller quake. If the energy had not been released, in a few hundred years another devastating quake might have taken place. And even if the drills in northern CA cause another quake, it is exactly the same thing: a quake in the area is bound to happen, releasing the energy early will simply reduce the energy of the quake. A hundred minor quakes are much better than a single big one. Just as with forest fires, we will learn that with time.
There is risk to funding this drilling. There is greater risk of global instability if we remain addicted to foreign oil consumption and greenhouse gas emitting energy sources. The path we are on today creates endless war in the middle east, getting chummy with tyrants, and global warming.
the traditional carbon and oil energy sources that this would replace are known to be dangerous. As long as the state is correctly regulating this I think it's GOOD, not EVIL.
The articles seem to state specifically that the drilling in Europe caused the earthquake. Almost without a doubt that is just a conjecture. The problem in California is that if the drilling takes a year or two, there is bound to be some kind of quake, and the drilling will get the blame. On the other hand, the value of deep well geothermal is so great that it would be worth a minor quake to get it.
Inside every complex program is a simple solution trying to get out.
"Yours is a drill that will pierce the heavens!" "Who the Hell do you think we are?" Can't hear about drilling without thinking about Gurren Lagann. ;)
No Grasshopper, this is James-Bond-villain evil. Not just any Bond villain, Christopher-Walken's-worst-performance-ever evil! I love Walken, but the evil in this plot really made me hate him. Or maybe it was just the sucky script. Roger Moore didn't help much either.
Never let a lack of data get in the way of a good rant.
I wouldn't worry too much about the effect of a small hole on such a large system, last night a deep drill into the active volcano Krafla (last eruption was in 1984) froze up at 2104 meters when the drill got stuck in molten rock. If nothing happens when you drill into a magma chamber of an active volcano then I don't worry about what happens when you drill miles and miles away from a fault-line.
.
Don't worry the internet will still be running, just when one does happen in NoCal, the data will just go through a pipe in Ft. Meade Md.
This is way too much like that dumb Bond movie. First, they get their own NASA airfield for their own private jet. Then they base a Zeppelin there, cruising over the Golden Gate Bridge, no less. Now, a geothermal drilling project? They're definitely on script.
Who plays Grace Jones?
I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied, California. Learn to swim.
This remind me a old movie with Luke Perry. A military funded project aiming to drill down earth crust to harvest energy disturb the north america continental plate and it start to move down under the pacific plate. All kind of stuff happens then. They end up going drilling under the crust to place nukes to "replace" the crust. This movie was realy bad. It's sad, Luke Perry was nice in Beverly Hills lol.
The plan is to cause a catastrophic rift that would sever California from the rest of North America. The resulting island would then be completely annexed by Google, forming the country of "Google" which would remain in beta for several years.
Ha! You Californians are on to our plan!!! We were going to solve the housing problem and state budget problems all at once, by having your idiotic, morally and financially bankrupt state fall harmlessly into the sea.
It would be worth it alone to get rid of the cast of The Hills.
Consider California a failed experiment and move on!
You are all missing the point:
There still would have been an earthquake if they didn't drill, it just would happen later when enough energy has built up, so the earthquake would be even larger. The energy builds up because the continental plates move against each other and some parts get stuck.
Hey don't blame me, IANAB
With Christopher Walken-A View to a Kill
Wouldn't it make more sense for Google to fund a drilling site near Redmond, Washington :-) ?
- David A. Wheeler (see my Secure Programming HOWTO)
I've just made the real estate investment of your dreams ;)
Yeah, and if a fly lands on a 747 it will go down in flames! Where do people come up with these stories?
They WANT the small quakes to happen, they are hoping to use this to relieve the pressure over the main fault !!!!!!
When it's working 1000 3.4 mag. farts a day !
I hope all that shaking and banging doesn't get the Devil all pissed off !!!!!!