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China Considering Cuts In Rare-Earth Metal Exports
SillySnake sends in a report from the Telegraph on draft plans in China to restrict exports of rare earths. "Beijing is drawing up plans to prohibit or restrict exports of rare earth metals that are produced only in China and play a vital role in cutting edge technology, from hybrid cars and catalytic converters, to superconductors, and precision-guided weapons. A draft report by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called for a total ban on foreign shipments of terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, thulium, and lutetium. Other metals such as neodymium, europium, cerium, and lanthanum will be restricted to a combined export quota of 35,000 tonnes a year, far below global needs."
Just what the world economy needs. A single-country "cartel" that will cause prices to greatly rise. This should be interesting to watch.
I guess rare-earth metals are the new "oil".
Place nail here >+
Terrorists found in Beijing and Shanghai, U.S. Troops invade.
Maybe they are already finished with those aircraft carriers I saw being built in Dalian last year.
That's ok, we still have plenty of Uranium...
Wanna fight ? Bend over, stick your head up your ass, and fight for air.
I for one Welcome our new, short, communist overlords.
Let's hope that they don't stop dilithium shipments!
Previously seen http://news.slashdot.org/story/09/05/31/022226/China-and-Japan-Covet-the-Same-Rare-Earth-Metals as well as http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/08/defense-geeks-fret-over-rare-earth-metal-supplies/ and http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/08/china-all-your-rare-earth-metals-belong-to-us/
Just what the world economy needs. A single-country "cartel" that will cause prices to greatly rise. This should be interesting to watch.
I guess rare-earth metals are the new "oil".
Some key points you may have missed from the article:
Mr Stephens said China had put global competitors out of business in the early 1990s by flooding the market, leading to the closure of the biggest US rare earth mine at Mountain Pass in California - now being revived by Molycorp Minerals.
So, if this goes through, we merely open the mine in California. I'll feel better about paying a higher price for something if it is created under tighter environmental regulations than what they have in China. Cheap labor and lack of an EPA and potential corrupted officials? Of course they can undercut California!
Secondly a rare metals dealer in Australia said
This isn't about the China holding the world to ransom. They are saying we need these resources to develop our own economy and achieve energy efficiency, so go find your own supplies.
So your analogy is lacking in many ways. We can refine the metals here and China needs them for their own growing demand.
My work here is dung.
China sees that it can strike while the iron is hot. Without declaring war on everyone, at that. All they have to do is restrict trade while the major countries flop around with oil pains and they'll soon be the top country.
Hmm...what doomsday weapon requires mass amounts of rare earth metals?
Look for "Yttrium-free" stickers on all your LED products. None of them will have red LEDs, but who cares, it's yttrium-free.
Try that, and I think you'll find in communist China, it is the authoritarian regime that liberates the people of the aggressor nation.
Geeks should be equally worried about indium, of which China is the main producer. So much for those cheap LCDs...
Yes, I won't be able to buy anymore the neodymium magnets to reduce the fuel consumption of my car...
I think that if they do so they won't mind if we ( as in the other western countries) put prohibitions and restrictions of our own in other product importations. We could revive our cloth, electrodomestic, chemical, (whatever) old industries. It might be a bit expensive at first (mostly for those multinationals ) but then we can be sure of better occupation rates. I's a shame that this is only wishfull thinking...
and finally call China out on it's myriad of violations? The US and Europe seem content over bickering about Airbus and Boeing when in actuality, those two companies' violation(if any) are a real drop in the bucket compared to China's insanely flagrant violations. However, the US is an addict hooked on selling China our debt, instead of oh I don't know, not invading a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 we decided it was a much better idea to sell ourselves lock stock and barrel to the Chinese. This is just the tip of the iceberg.
Monstar L
As much as the world's stock of precious metals is being depleted by pseudoenvironmentalist hybrid drivers there will be alternatives. Remember when we all had to change our automotive refrigerants in the late 1980s and early 1990s? Even after the air conditioners were retooled we still found an alternative compound that works with the old R12 models.
Kriston
Yeah, all this news from the past is boring. I want news from the future dammit! If it happened more than 3 seconds ago it's unimportant to me.
This is why so many of the worlds worst dictators where loved by Moscow and Washington.
As long as the rare raw materials flowed, mass graves where just enemy propaganda.
National Security Study Memorandum 200 (NSSM 200) - April 1974
http://www.population-security.org/28-APP2.html
"It is vital that the effort to develop and strengthen a commitment on the part of the LDC leaders not be seen by them as an industrialized country policy to keep their strength down or to reserve resources for use by the "rich" countries. Development of such a perception could create a serious backlash adverse to the cause of population stability. Thus the U.S. and other "rich" countries should take care that policies they advocate for the LDC's would be acceptable within their own countries. (This may require public debate and affirmation of our intended policies.) The "political" leadership role in developing countries should, of course, be taken whenever possible by their own leaders."
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
Recycling of these metals should be the focus. Getting oil out of tar is feasable at a cost. How high do these prices have to go to make recovering these metals worth it?
Can they restrict the export of the following too? Lead paint(makes kids retarded), melanine(kills cats), drywall(poisons houses), heparin(kills people dead) and keep them for their own internal market?
Or maybe someone could be held accountable.
But how will I level my blacksmithing if they stop posting mats to the auction house? guess I'll have to take up mining :-/
I thought you said "insanely fragrant violations" and I was scratching my head there for a while.
It's NOT me! It's the meds! I'm on 1000mg of Fukitol.
Of course, he meant "insanely fragrant violets". They're a big seller for FTD!
Maybe they're getting tired of exchanging their wealth for our paper. I admire the way China is focused like a laser on their infrastructure and the acquisition of raw materials, while we're busy making up new problems to solve as a way of avoiding the very serious ones we already have. Perhaps if we focused on production, rather than consumption, we might have a little extra wealth to spend on our own decaying infrastructure.
Meant to say "A trade war with China now would likely hurt the U.S. a *LOT* more than China."
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
Sure ... you can live without all those cheap Chinese imports.
Just wait 'til the price of training shoes, TV sets and video consoles goes through the roof.
No sig today...
Tritium is not a rare earth metal.
Both countries have the capacity to annihilate each other and I have difficulty seeing how it would end up differently. I can't see how the US would win a conventional warfare as 350 millions people nation trying to beat into submission a 1.6 billion correctly armed one seems just impossible. Even in the eventuality of a US victory it would be impossible for them to get any kind of control over a territory that big even if they shipped every US citizen over there. Invading China would be a moot point.
Most likely they would end up nuking the crap out of each other and we would all get to play fallout for free. (well.. not all of us.)
True. And actually this isn't just the case in the USA; there are virtually no new refineries anywhere in the world.
But actually the main hurdle isn't the NIMBY syndrome or over-regulation - it's a simple matter of return on investment. No-one wants to build a refinery because they take a long time to build, and a long time to recoup your investment, and the world's oil supply is known to be running out. Globally, oil-fields are now considered to be at peak production levels; that's to say, it's unlikely that there will ever be more oil being pumped than there is today. So building new refining capacity is a poor investment. Instead, people are just making do with what there is. That's why Iran is now importing refined petroleum from Venezuela.
Makes perfect sense: we won't export "super computers" like the Playstation to China. China had to figure out what they have that we want and then squeeze it. With all the "green" technology relying on electric motors, we need those rare earth magnets. Bravo, China. Bravo.
Do you really expect a country that at least used to charge families for the bullets used to execute family members to act in a humanitarian way?
Someone is making magnates.
I realize you're just being contrary, but China lacks the force projection to threaten the us militarily.
Learn about Photography Basics.
New Balance sources most of their labor from the U.S. (or at least, much of it, I'm not sure how things break down exactly), and while they don't charge $10, they don't exactly charge a fortune either.
Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
NO. I expect them to exact revenge.
--coolio
By Chinese standard, the fact that the US has so much porn is just unheard of. Porn is not only illegal but also considered immoral.
Hold it, I thought only right wing Christian nutjobs wanted to make porn illegal? Are you trying to tell me that the Chinese government is controlled by right wing Christian nut jobs?
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
Wonderful, one more incentive to fund asteroid mining.
...and rare earth magnates at that, since most of us on this planet are not.
The "cue the foo posts in 3, 2, 1..." posts will commence with no subsequent foo posts in 3, 2, 1...
Moves like theese shows a forward thinking that the west has tossed out the window long ago. When we moved our factories abroad we sold our butts for a fast buck and a nice swimming pool for some executives. My country happily ships all resources out instead of processing them and we loose billions in the long run on this, not to mention jobs lost and trade balance.
Keeping important natural resources inside the country and selling them highly processed (in cars, computers etc) gives much better yield than to just sell it abroad and then buy the refined products back. Im must give it to the Chinese, they are shrewd economics but the really dangerous part is that they think ten years longer ahead than most westerners do that only worry about the next quarter at most.
HTTP/1.1 400
I mean, it would be business as usual. :P
Any sufficiently advanced intelligence is indistinguishable from stupidity.
I heard a quote from my time in the military (a long time ago, when the Soviets/Warsaw pact were the big bad enemy).
"China could field an army of 17-30 year old males greater than our population". The conventional wisdom was they lacked the logistics and force projection to deploy any meaningful force against us.
A general told me "True, but if we nuked a million of them a day , we would still have a few years work ahead of us"
Scary!
Oh, you must be one of those self-hating white liberals! Jay Severin is right, you people really are that stupid.
How many colonies has America set up since WWII? How many people has America freed (or attempted to free in the cases of Vietnam and Korea - and yes, I know the Democrats got us involved in Vietnam through engineered situations but let's ignore that since it is irrelevant)? Didn't America free almost an entire continent way back in WWII? Hasn't every conflict America has gotten into in recent years resulted in more liberty for the citizens of the invaded country?
Are Iraq, Kuwait, and Afghanistan now American colonies? Or, was Kuwait freed from aggressors, and were Iraq and Afghanistan freed from oppressive megalomaniac tyrants?
Don't get me wrong; I don't agree with the stated reasons for getting into the (second) Iraq war. If George DUHbya Bush were honest and said "Hussein is a douchebag and needs killin'" in classic Texas style, I'd have supported it. If he had said more eloquently "Hussein is an oppressive tyrant and we need to deal with him preemptively" I'd have supported that. However, Bush lied about WMD. I don't not support the war and not support the troops; I don't support the contrived reasons for getting into it when it was clear as day that there were many very real good reasons to terminate Hussein's regime.
Have you spoken with any troops who have gone there? I have. Several of my friends have done "tours" there. They all say the Iraqis are grateful for what was done.
It may be true that Iraqis are tired of our troops being there, but they're not afraid of dying for voting for the "wrong" candidate in elections any more, or voting the "wrong" way on any issues. If you think that is the result of imperialist tactics, I don't think that any rational discussion can be had with you.
Also, in case you missed it: China has carried out several acts of war against us in the last decade or so, one of those being colliding with and downing one of our EP-3 aircraft that was over international waters. Now, it's true that the EP-3 is a reconnaissance aircraft, but surveying foreign territories is SOP, for China, Russia, and America alike. You don't see us taking down Chinese aircraft, do you. China is an aggressor and why we treat them as most favored trading partner is beyond me.
The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
Maybe this would be a good time to re-arm Japan.
Just because somehting was up and running once doesn't mean it is just sitting there waiting to turn on when we want ti back. Steel isn't a rare earth metal, but Geneva Steel was shut down in Utah and sold to China. We can't just turn it back on, we gave them our business and Geneva couldn't match their prices. Now instead of giving China our business, we sold them the business too.
Now for some irony, before Geneva steel went away they needed to buy new bricks to line their furnace. Only two places in the world made the brick they needed China, and Lehi Block who was just miles up the road from them. Geneva Steel bought brick from China and then complained when they shut down that too many people bought cheap steel from China.
Funny you should list those facts. "The end of the world is coming" fundamentalist Christians point to the same set of facts as partial justification for some of their beliefs about how the battle between good and evil will play out. Everyone who believes there will be a battle of Armageddon agrees that it will be a huge battle. But, depending on who you read, how do you get the 200 million-plus troops for the invasion? The only way to put that many foot soldiers on the battlefield is to get a big commitment from China. China may not be able to project much power very far across the Pacific, but they could start marching westward.
Of course, I get a little tired by people who let such thoughts keep them up at night. But I did find your post interesting in that context.
After all, socialism's ideal is to control the sources of materials and production. China is a growing country and is looking ahead. Why not build a stockpile, since future economic growth will probably depend on that stockpile. They already own the US' debt anyway (the rest exists in the form of IOU's from the Federal Reserve, and any individual foolish enough to buy US treasuries nowadays). No need to play nice anymore.
Expect terms and conditions to be dictated to the world by China in 20 years or so. I expect them to play nice with the Russians/CIS because they share so much land border with them defending it wholly would bankrupt both countries - much like the US and Canada are obliged to be best friends. But the rest of the world? No one has done China any favors in the past century - expect none.
However the Chinese government has shown itself to be hugely oppressive at times, and Chinese people tend to be quite racially intolerant (we are after all the "barbarians"). Perhaps they will be the answer to islamic extremism - a Chinese bullet to the back of the head.
PS: I am not Chinese.
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
Maybe we could re-arm the Soviet Union while we're at it.
Or, maybe we could all just admit that you said a dumb thing.
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
This distinctly reminds me of an old joke.
A man walks into a Chinese restaurant and sees the owner reading the paper and smiling. He asks what he's happy about and he points to the front page of the paper which says "100000 Chinese killed in combat!" with "10000 Japanese killed". The man is confused as to why such a stunning loss would be cause for happiness. The Chinese man replies "At this rate, there soon won't be any Japanese left!".
China is BIG. They've got roughly 1/5 of the world's people. They've got more people than the EU, the US, Japan, and even Russia all put together.
upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
If only China *really* were the sole source of these minerals on Earth this would make a perfect business case to finally launch a moon or asteroid mining operation... Given of course that these bodies contain said minerals...
--frank[at]unternet.org
Treat them as an aggressor and there will be war and millions (of Americans, even!) might die. Treat them as a trading partner and there will be trade and millions will have manufactured goods (that they wouldn't otherwise). Not exactly a difficult decision...
The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
Japan is doing pretty well at rearming on its own - http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htnavai/articles/20090904.aspx
If he's the Walrus then can I be a penguin please?
Nope.
It will get more expensive, but we still have significant oil reserves
Rare metals, who knows. If it gets down to national survival, there's a buhzillion acres in federal land (parks and etc) that are currently off limits to mining, but that could change fast.
And we are just scratching the surface on R&D with biofuels. Corn (any cheap sugars) ethanol and soybean (and many other crops) biodiesel are mere first gen efforts, they work right now but are resource and cash expensive. Once next gen gets rolling, like with engineered algae and waste biomass conversion and so on, which could be combined with solar and wind power to run the conversion facilities, we could have liquid transportation fuels for a long time, indefinitely really, as long as we also keep working on better efficiencies and get a lot of the commuter cars running on electricity, and save the liquid fuels more for long haul trucking and ag machinery and aircraft uses etc..
Movies, education - it all adds our value to the world, and helps usually to beneficially influence those who come to live here and study. Kicking out thousands of CHinese students is like getting rid of thousands of allies.
..........FULL STOP.
China is now refusing to export a number of rare earth elements. These are ones that are currently expensive to get elsewhere. In addition, they HAVE put caps on other ones. But that is not the real problem.
The real issue is that they are running around BUYING UP all the mines in the free world. Basically, they are trying hard to make a monopoly of this. The place to watch is Australia, Canada, and America. America has the largest active RE mines and China made a bid for these last year(US gov said no). They currently are trying to buy 2 start-up mines in Australia. Finally, IIRC, they DID buy a Canadian producer (though I do not recall where mines were located).
The other day I commented about how we should be mining space, to which a fool responded that it was not practical. At that time, I pointed out that long-term countries would try to limit access to various elements/minerals. Sure enough, that day was when I found out about China thinking of limiting REM. The problem is that when items are taken off the market, it means that you limit countries capabilities. That tends to make wars happen. Imagine if another GWB gets into office in say about 2 years and REM is expensive to the west. GWB would go to war over this because CHina is building up their military and will want to stop it before they get too strong. Keep in mind that China is positioning themselves for a first strike, not for a defensive position. If we want to avoid stupid wars, we MUST get into space and locate new elements/minerals esp. REMs. They are the foundation of militaries as well as electrical systems. All of our future motors and many of the advanced electronic boards depend on these.
China is not about playing fair. They are very much in a cold war with the west, whether we like it or now. If we want to prevent a hot war, we will have to prevent them from limiting our access to resources (either by war or by finding new cheap mines) and will have to bring back manufacturing.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Revenge? It's not revenge. It's their resources, they can CHOOSE to sell it to us, or they can CHOOSE to hoard it for their own use, or they can CHOOSE to turn it into a life sized replica of the pyramids just because they can. That's the nature of it being THEIRS.
Looking at the history of things like rubber, tea, diamonds and oil, it would seem that we are not aware that we have no God given right to the resources of others, no matter how much we tell ourselves we need it for our survival. Has UK/US historical foreign policy gotten that far into the public mindset that we now get all angsty and self-righteous whenever some country decides that they need their resources more than we need their resources? Seriously people, if we're going to think this way and then acquiesce to the military being used to go fetch those resources and destroy the other country in the process, then lets at least not act all surprised when they get fed up and fly planes into our buildings.
I hate printers.
With the sudden shift in TV and monitor designs to using LCD panels rather than CRTs, old glass TVs and monitors are being junked by the tonne. There's rare earths in them thar CRTs! The cathode coatings and the phosphors themselves are full of 'em.
OK, so only a small amount per CRT, but it all adds up when you've got millions being dumped. In the EU this is probably made easier because the rules concerning disposal of electronic goods are fairly well defined, in some countries you might have to start digging up landfills.
This is a no-brainer... it's because they could totally kick our ass if push came to shove.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
The ones in there are the ones that China is limiting to increase the price. The ones that we want (that china has not prevented from being sold), are NOT in our landfills. They are in fairly new use on permanent magnet motors as well as high-end circuitry's. In addition, these require MINUTE amounts on these (the world uses several tons a year on a few of these, but are hard to obtain).
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Because W wanted support and funding for his Iraqi invasion and occupation. Basically W traded our future for his oil.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
What DOES America export?
Things I can think of: Microsoft, Hollywood-stuff, Weapons, McDonalds, patents, death of popstars, hmmm...
Come to think of it, it's been ages since I've seen "Made in America" anywhere except on TV.
If you quote this signature there'll be 72 copies of Windows ME waiting for you in Heaven.
Oh, you must be one of those overly defensive knee-jerk militarists.
Sheesh,way to go off on a tangent. All I said was, China isn't the kind of place the US can just waltz into and "liberate". They're not exactly defenseless. What your baseless assumptions about my political agenda or your rants about China's aggression have to do with it is beyond me. The fact remains, currently any military conflict between China and USA or allied countries would be far too costly for both parties to be worth it, both in terms of military losses and in terms of economic ramifications. And that, I suspect, is also why your country isn't taking an aggressive approach to Chinese transgressions.
Your one of the few that pointed out that there are vast rare earth sources outside of China - one of the largest being in California.
A Shadeless room is a brighter room.
Fine, this will just push us into that Turbidium mining project on Mars a few years sooner.
Lurking in the desert
Another big source of uncommon metals is sub-Saharan Africa - for example, something like 80% of the world's supply of either Cobalt or Coltan comes from mines in the Congo. And China has been making big inroads into that region too, in terms of international aid and trade.
There are times that being an officially godless commie state comes in handy, really. US shows up and says "we'll give you aid money as long as you don't promote safe sex, and oh, sorry, our business community is a little too nervous to really trade with you." China shows up and just says "look, we want to do business; you have resources we need."
Unsurprisingly, African governments are talking more to China these days.
Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
Also, in case you missed it: China has carried out several acts of war against us in the last decade or so, one of those being colliding with and downing one of our EP-3 aircraft that was over international waters.
If it is an incident like the blocking of some US marine vessel then not sure who is correct. In that case the US sais their vessel was in international waters, China said it was their waters. That because China was lookign at an international agreement that the US didn't sign. So both were right, in a way.
Also Chinas army as it stands is primarily defensive (except forces aimed at Taiwan). They don't even have an aircraft carrier yet. Now compare that to the US army. Chinese military bases can be found all over China, US military bases are all over the world. Oh and have a look at the number of wars they were in - or better, the number they started in the last couple decades. I wouldn't see China as more aggressive than the USA at all.
Now, it's true that the EP-3 is a reconnaissance aircraft, but surveying foreign territories is SOP, for China, Russia, and America alike. You don't see us taking down Chinese aircraft, do you. China is an aggressor and why we treat them as most favored trading partner is beyond me.
I have also not yet heard about Chinese military aircraft flying missions in or near US air space. Save Alaska they may not even have the capacity to do so in a substantial manner.
Ever since the Korean war, "liberation" has proven increasingly difficult. Many of these countries we try to "liberate" don't understand or relate to democracy and western values and we haven't figured out how to make them "get it". Plus, it gives the US a reputation for interference. We created the problem in Iran by propping up a greedy dictator, for example. And, Saddam acted as a counter-balance to Iran, as bad as he was. In his absence, Iran's influence has grown. Our record of meddling is poor. There's as many failures as successes. Let's try NOT meddling for a few decades and see if things are better or the same. We shouldn't meddle unless there is a CLEAR advantage of meddling.
As far as China, they wouldn't have so much money for their military if we simply didn't run a giant trade deficit with them. Tariffs are not evil, they reduce imbalance-caused bubbles, for one; and encourage more purchasing on their part. (And it wouldn't trigger a "trade war" because they don't buy enough from us to have real counter-leverage. It's like a VW Beetle trying to play Chicken with a Hummer.)
Table-ized A.I.
I TRUST that you are kidding about tariffs, yes? They do not work. The issue is that China was given MFN and into WTO by promising to open their borders and to free their money. All good. Problem is that China has not LIVED up to their word. They still have barriers up and most of all, the money is not traded freely. It is in a "basket" that is controlled by their gov. In addition, they allow pollution (co2 and other ) to be emitted in large amounts to give an even larger boost to low costs. Our energy bill is going to be a disaster and will encourage China,India,Mexico, etc to pollute more to take more jobs.
So, here is my solution:
If we do the above, then there will be no real need for free trade acts. What is really needed is to make certain that we avoid exceptions. There are a number of countries that we allow to have one-way trade with us and do little to nothing to help those countries.
If the above is done by the west, it would bring up conditions all over the world. EU has talked about doing Free Trade agreements with Latin America, but they want to use it to push better conditions for the citizens. I have to say that it is not a bad idea, but I think the above is even better.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Uh, baby girls. Male babies are favored because carrying on the family last name is very important in their tradition.
Table-ized A.I.
Dude, what are you talking about? Who is "we"? Last I knew, Sony was a Japanese company. Is "we" referring to Japan?
I remembered this story from 2003 about the U.S. more or less outsourcing missile guidance systems to China. Given that we are letting the Chinese buy and relocate our manufacturing capacity there, and given the amount of computer products we ship there to be "recycled"; I have a hard time believing there are any significant trade restrictions with China. Perhaps you can supply some references? How does Lenovo manage to manufacture Thinkpads and PCs without a steady supply of Intel CPUs?
The story I recall regarding Playstation "supercomputers" involved them being imported into Iraq pre-invasion.
Not really, nor is it a manufactured shortage, but it is another shot in their ongoing half-assed trade war. I say half-assed becasue while there is a definite nationalistic bent to this, China is also trying to develop it's own industries.
So, China started out dumping rare earths on the global market (find your own darn citations you needy buggers), but as they see their own internal demand ramping up, they are going to divert more of their production to their own use. Of course some of that internal use will be for exportable products. Remember that they are making big investments in battery technology. I expect they plan on having an electric car that will need the rare earths currently going into Prius motors. Expect that car to be a big export item. And it will be aimed directly at hybrids and electrics and priced low enough that their competitors will have to sell at a loss to compete on price - at least until China needs them for internal consumption.
Before China started dumping (look up your own darn citations) rare earths on the world market, the US was the major producer worldwide. The US firms that used to supply the vast majority of our needs (from our own resources) have shut down most of their production. It is very hard to compete with the combination of slave labor and non-existent safety and environmental regulations. It was a series of environmental violations given as the reason for the shutdown of one of the biggest US mines, but it may have really been related to a ability to see the handwriting on the wall regarding Chinese imports as well.
You either believe in rational thought or you don't
Yes because Muslim fundamentalists love the porn, that's why they make their women wear no clothes when they go outside.
“When goods cannot cross borders, armies will.” — Frédéric Bastiat (1801–1850)
Very well said. It didn't take a genius to see that the WMD talk in the run up the war was just propaganda. Anyone who fell for the propaganda as the true reason for the war is exactly as stupid as GWB wanted them to be.
I tried to find a paper I read in the 90's, but can't find it online anymore. It was written by 4 Chinese generals as basically they're version of "A Project for a New American Century". It laid out exactly how China should compete with and conquer the United States in the long term. Most notably it stressed asymmetric warfare on all fronts.
As I see China buying up our economy, restricting our access to necessary resources, propping up anti-America regimes in Venezuala, Iran, Sudan..... I can't help but think that the paper has been implemented and the war has already started. The Chinese leadership is much, much smarter than the American populace.
>> The Chinese leadership is much, much smarter than the American populace.
you don't set a very high bar. Americans as a group are incredibly willfully ignorant and shortsighted. Electing a willfully ignorant president, twice, is but one example. Pulling children out of PUBLIC schools so they don't get brainwashed by a speech made by the President of the United States is another. Not building nuclear power plants due to irrational fear of radiation is another. Not recognizing that taxes and spending actually have to balance in the long term. Not insisting politicians deal with the structural imbalances of Medicare and Social Security early to minimize the pain.
There are many more examples...
Ignoring the fact that the Soviet Union went out of business almost 20 years ago, keep in mind that they were one of the largest weapons manufacturers around, and when they fell, just about anything not nailed, tied, & welded down got sold.
Except for their cars. Nobody wanted their cars except for some weird collectors.
Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
Until about 10 years ago, there were many magnesium manufacturers around the world, including one in my home town of Porsgrunn (in Norway).
When China decided that light metals was a crucial market for them, they started a bunch of very low-tech/high-pollusion magnesium smelters, and many/most Western competitors folded.
In the latest (for the year 1998) SFT (Norwegian EPA) regulations for the Porsgrunn factory (in norwegian), the limit on some pollutants was set to maximum 1 gram/year, I suspect the Chinese smelters are many orders of magnitude above this level.
Terje
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"
"I miss the days of over-engineered machines built of inferior materials." ... "Funny thing is, they still work. Like new."
:(
Sadly thank the Gillette razor manufacturer for creating the tread with their idea of the disposable blades, just over a hundred years ago. Since then ever more products have been designed to wear out and fail. Its the whole concept of planned obsolescence which is a big marketing tactic. (So much for conserving and using earth resources responsibly. These companies are far more (self-)interested in profit). Its disturbing how much thought goes into planned obsolescence, e.g.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence
Here's an eye opening discussion about the idea of "Ending the Depression Through Planned Obsolescence" back in 1932.
https://www.adbusters.org/blogs/blackspot_blog/consumer_society_made_break.html
Its a tactical move by companies. No wonder we have such problems now with everyone consuming earth's resources after decades of companies behaving like this.
But I don't know how it'll ever be stopped. For decades everyone has been led to believe in the idea of getting things ever cheaper, but that quietly assumes the product will fail sooner and so need replacing sooner and so in the long run, it'll end up working out more expensive. But then everyone has been also led to believe almost everything is out of fashion and so needs to be replaced regularly. While thats true of some things (especially technology due to improvements) it doesn't apply to everything we buy.
Another problem is it costs more to produce something well rather than cheaply. So the cheap companies win and the well produced product companies end up going out of business. So we are rushing towards a world that produces ever more cheap rubbish that keeps needing to be thrown away and each time its thrown away someone profits from replacing what was thrown away. So we have ever growing rubbish mountains all around the world, which is also causing ever more environmental damage.
There are 10 kinds of people in the world... those who understand binary and those who don't.
Are you only counting the ones where American directly intervened, or are you including the ones where the war was fought through the CIA?
Are belongs to us!
I hear ignorance speaking. China is definitely moving into the 21st century. Their arms may not yet be equal to everything the west has, but they are catching up.
But, more importantly, China can suffer losses at a 100 to 1 ratio, and win against any competitor. If it came to war, the west would either form a coalition, or lose. Oh yeah, we could go nuclear - but so can they. Warring with China isn't something that you want to see happen. It wouldn't be a walk in the park.
Perhaps most people are unaware that China has been involved in all the wars in Asia over the decades? Mostly indirectly - supplying "advisors", technical advice and training, putting observers on the ground, and offering moral and political support.
N. Korea still stands as a thorn in the west's side.
There is no longer a "South" Vietnam.
Discounting China's ability to fight, based on the poor quality of outdated hardware is foolish and dangerous.
More, China isn't looking for a conventional war, any more than we are. "Assassin's Mace" is a plan to gain world domination via assymetrical warfare. The restrictions on strategic resources is part of that plan, just as the flooding (devaluing) of the market in past years was part of that plan.
Go ahead, mock the "sleeping giant", if you will. It only exposes your ignorance.
"Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
Yes, but how many of our aircraft carriers did the Soviets sink?
The suggestion that we should re-arm Japan is pretty stupid. Go ask anybody's grandpa how dumb that idea is.
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
Everyone in power always wants to make everything illegal since telling other people what to do is what power is.
Is China your daddy? And, umm, sorry to ruin the China love fest, but China has 1.3 Billion people. The US population is 300 million. More of a 4-1 ratio. Would I bet agaisnt them if the US invaded? Hell no, cause I never get involved in a land war in Asia But could the United States lay a beat down on China, mongul style? Hell yes. Our military is superior on every front except numbers. And if it came down to a Nuclear showdown, I don't know how many weapons they could get to the United States, but it would be more a question of how many could they get off before the United States reduced them to rare-earth elements. Now Am I saying a military solution is the answer? No. But the United States isn't some limp-dicked European Nationa either.
See http://www.bis.doc.gov/licensing/exportingbasics.htm
As usual, the Chinese are stealing ideas from us (government interference in free enterprise, that is).
Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
buuuullllll sheeet.
The USA has been forcing Canada to export bottled water and other natural resources for years. It isn't fair, but it what it is. Now that china is standing against the USA, of course americans are going to cry. They're on the receiving end and don't like taking it in the rear.
"Is China your daddy?"
Most definitely NOT.
Our military is superior - yes. But, the balance is changing. I stated that. Look at just the Navy. 50 years ago, China's navy wasn't even a sad joke. Today? They have hardware and crew to man that hardware in the Indian Ocean, patrolling for pirates.
As for the limp dick comment - well, let's put politics and morality aside, and examine only military conquests. After the US subdued the technologically disadvantaged native tribes, what conquests can we show that compare with Germany's performance in the early part of WW2? Limp dicks, indeed.
I'm an American, and a veteran, but I don't subscribe to the ethnocentric arrogance that so many of us seem to love.
Put a beatdown on China? Uh-huh, possibly. A 200 year old culture can beatdown a 5000 year old culture - it happens every couple of decades, right? There is much more to warfare than just putting troops and hardware into the field, assuming they are used to best advantage.
"Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
I'd say you missed the boat. Japan is already re-armed. Other than the US and a handful of NATO members they have the most powerful Navy and Air Force in the World. They could become a nuclear power almost overnight if they made the decision to do so. The only thing Japan is lacking is the political will to flex it's military muscle to protect/advance it's national interests.
I don't know why you are worried about them. A lot of their weapons systems and military technology came from us. This means that we know what the capabilities of their systems are and they rely on us for spare parts/technical assistance. The major issue with Japan openly using her military power is that it would scare the crap out of the Chinese and Koreans and likely lead to an Asian arms race. She isn't a threat to the United States though.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Well, in regards to Germany's WWII performance compared to the United States, you can take a lot of ground when you use deception and modern hardware against a foe. Lets not forget, Poland threw mounted Calvary against tanks. Not much of a contest. More or less, if we picked our battles(and not just militarily, economically and politically as well), we could beat the crap out of China. If we did not, we could lose badly. And while I am wary of playing hardball with China, I see it as an eventuality at this point. China wants to rule the world. If they would only taker their place as an ally, an equal, everything would be fine.
Well, current estimates of military strength beg to differ.
I once read that their military has one gun for every eight "fighting" troops currently. While I doubt this is true, looking at the numbers the CIA gives for their army it appears unlikely that the US would be outgunned, even if the US would be out-manned.
However, their nukes will certainly annihilate us even as ours annihilate them, so war really isn't a viable proposition.
The US consumes 20.8 million barrels of oil per day.
The Bakken Formation holds 3.65 billion barrels of oil.
That's a little over 3.5 years worth. Nothing to sneeze at, but not a panacea.
With the first link, the chain is forged.
News flash, the Chinese government serves the interests of the Chinese people, not yours. The governments of other countries around the world exist to serve and protect their own people, not to serve and protect American interests. It seems that most American have forgotten that and expect every government to be an American shill. We refuse to be your shill.
Speaking of capitalism and free trade, you're all for it when you are crushing nascent industries in underdeveloped regions like Africa to ensure that your industries will have free reign to sell stuff there, but when a country like us can actually compete with you, or possibly even out-compete you, you cry foul and demand protectionism. Free trade is only good when America gets the advantage, it seems.
Speaking of corrupt and autocratic governments, your government is nowhere near clean of corruption, and you have never shown any compunction to support autocratic and corrupt governments when they serve your interests; I don't think I need to bring up all the Cold War examples but if you want an example of today, look no further than the PLO Palestinian authority government and Karzai's Afghan government.
American imperialism and hypocrisy is on full display in this thread.
Problem is, we aren't fighting, let alone choosing our battles. China's export industry is expanding throughout Africa and Asia at exponential rates, while our exports shrink. Worse, American corporations are actively exporting technology and jobs to China. IBM, among others, are moving out of the country.
The corporate world has largely abandoned the United States, and many of those who have abandoned us have thrown in with China.
There IS a war, of sorts, and China appears to be winning it.
Our military might may outclass China's, but military muscle is useless without logistics. All of the world's greatest military leaders have been masters logistics. Poor logistics killed the German army on the eastern front, remember? Most people claim that the Russian winter killed that army, but in fact, it was the lack of logistics. If humans on one side of the war survived the winter, then the humans on the other side of the war could have survived - had they planned ahead, and provided the shelter, clothing, and food required to survive such an environment.
"when you use deception" and "I am wary of playing hardball with China". I assure you, China is playing hardball, and we are being deceived.
"Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
Who said I was worried about them? Are you saying that it would be smart to re-arm Japan?
Because if you're arguing that, then I'll point that Japan is already re-armed. Other than the US and a handful of NATO members they have the most powerful Navy and Air Force in the World. They could become a nuclear power almost overnight if they made the decision to do so. The only thing Japan is lacking is the political will to flex it's military muscle to protect/advance it's national interests.
My point stands. No matter which way you approach the issue, it's stupid to re-arm Japan.
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
No, I'm saying it's stupid to argue about the wisdom of "re-arming" them when we've already done so. Unless they obtained the Aegis combat system, F-15, F-16, M-16, M-1, Patriot, etc all on their own. In which case we should sue them for patent infringement ;)
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Meh, not really. If it came to full-scale nuclear war, most of China's population is near the coasts. We could take out their entire industrial infrastructure in half an hour with SLBMs. They are also somewhat reliant on hydro power in many locations, and dams wouldn't last long in all-out war.
A few million soldiers do no good at all if you can't feed, fuel, or clothe them.
Cool tidbit - the Three Gorges Dam holds back enough water that the filling of the reservoir actually caused small earthquakes from the shifting of the Earth's crust to accommodate the weight. Breach the dam, and all that weight moves quickly - a nuclear war could actually cause fairly serious earthquakes in the region.
Learn about Photography Basics.
At current recovery rates and tech level, yes, but that will get better, there's more there, and they are still finding big fields elsewhere, like the recent big gulf discovery..and who knows what they have squirreled away in the arctic, either known about and kept secret, or still to be found.
Combined with more efficient vehicles,(a LOT more efficient, it's possible today with bog standard today's tech, every place BUT the US has a much wider choice of better mileage vehicles) and electric vehicles, and using what petroleum we have in blends with advanced biofuels, we could get by on a reduced petroleum supply load for even longer.
And telecommuting, a few tens of billion in better data infrastructure could eliminate the need for hundreds of billions worth in commuting costs and pollution., which is cheaper and easier, transporting some electrons, or millions of meat sacks in heavy steel boxes twice a day?
Giant office towers that are there just so folks can sit in front of a computer screen are *rather wasteful*, when folks can stay home and sit in front of a computer screen. All that commuting and having to keep those huge buildings running, proly 3/4ths wasted right there just because a lot of these companies haven't had the right incentive (that would be clubs to the head to get them to wake up) and cut loose from the Ebenezer Scrooge and Bob Cratchitt 1700s mentality of the necessity of BEING at the office all the time, and make better use of the tech we have now and enter the 21st century. Plus think of the sheer millions of man hours that could be saved not riding in a car or bus or train or even a dang bicycle back and forth and back and forth and back and forth to work.
We can go a long ways to dropping petroleum (and coal and natgas and..) demand without sacrificing any cool modern way of life, just by doing things smarter instead oif perpetuating obsolete tech because a few already rich people can skim so much profit from it. Heck, we could probably get by with very few new powerplants if they adjusted building codes (and mortgage loan approvals) to require a lot more insulation. The bulk of our electricity use is heating and cooling, and I know that this demand/requirement level can be dropped drastically, I used to be in that biz for a while, retrofitting for more energy efficiency.
You can read a scosh about it here, superinsulation. It's amazing, you got to see it to believe it almost. You can get some serious savings by just *using* tech that has already been developed decades ago. It ain't sexy for wallstreet skimmers and gamblers that much, so it isn't pushed "in the market" as it could be, or for academic wanking research, but it IS possible. No new nuthin needs to be invented or funded by vulture capitalists or needs "government studies". Just double or triple our generic 50s and 60s level insulation that exists in millions of homes and buildings, along with a few other tweaks like better windows and doors and so on, and you'd be surprised how that works out for the electric bill.
Easy enough done with a simple one page legislative bill and decent and credible sized tax credits, extended for some years. It could create a million new and actually *useful* jobs and save hundreds of billions in energy costs and dramatically reduce air pollution. But no one big company could get a monopoly on it, not a lot of patents to troll with, etc, so it ain't pushed, and dang sure the energy companies don't push it, cuts directly into the ole bottom line there. Lip service at best, they push what I would term 1/4 ass efforts, not even half assed. And they call that "good cents". I call it deliberate misdirection and marketing propaganda.
You want to see what really could be accomplished today, with both housing and transportation, check out some of the designs at the solar decathlon competition.
Cue the hissy fit from a bunch of undereducated yanks about how they have a RIGHT goddammit, to buy anything they want from anybody, and if those little yellow fuckers won't sell, well we'll just go over there and take it from them. But the free market is still our God. Not quite so free is it ?
So, you're saying that we should not re-arm Japan. That's what I'm saying too. So why are we disagreeing?
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
While I agree with you in general, the China that we might be in a war with does not have a 5000 year old culture. More like a 60 years old - and I suspect that their youngsters would be no more thrilled about such a conflict than ours - less so since they are on average more intelligent (look it up if ya want a citation) and even more aware of the just how corrupt their own government is.
You either believe in rational thought or you don't
Maybe you'll have to buy finished goods. Like neodymium crowbars. Then improve them a little.
China obviously intends to go nuclear. Their current generation of warheads that they are building are neutrons, not normal hydrogen bombs. The have a new ICBM that they have been trying to keep quiet; the DF-41. It will (does?) carry 10 MIRV and will be both vehicle and sub launched. They currently have 10 boomers with apparently more in the works, but are trying hard to hide them. That is why they built their new island which is a sub base and why they are fighting against the west monitoring even the edge of their 200 mile border. They do not want the rest of the world to know what is coming. Finally, they have been working towards taking out sats with simple anti-sat tech, but have been quietly working on lasers. The lasers are expected to be part of their many new manned space stations.
Worse of all, their focus is on first strike, not defensive. When USSR and the west were in a cold war, neither side was focused on first strike, but strictly on Defensive. reagan did few things right, but he did have it right about dealing with USSR (and vice-versa); Trust, but verify. In doing that, it allows both sides to build up common ground. China is not interested in that. They are strictly gearing up for a nuclear war against the west. And we almost appear to be helping them by not holding CHina to 2 way trade and free money exchange. Add to that the insane invasion/occupation that the neo-cons did of Iraq, while ignoring the real issue of AQ (which could and should have been solved in the first year or two). Unless we change our way, China will soon feel that they can win a nuclear war. I spent my childhood being under desks, with my father ready to fly fatmen into the middle of Russia, and later, my young adulthood researching the USSR's biological weapons as well as working on defenses against them (they had some pretty "interesting" items). Back in the 60's, I was concerned esp. when my dad was gone for a week in late oct. 1962 (found out later that he was on end of runway ready and fueled to go). But it was obvious by mid/late 70's, that USSR was going to go under. Now, I look at CHina and KNOW that they are gearing up to do what all of us in the 60's did not want. The next decade will be interesting. Hopefully, this does not come to be.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
I'd love to see you try to take a hambone away from a pit bull...
Karma is for whores
One could easily argue that by disconnecting the world from their primary source for these materials would follow along the same lines. Simply put, nothing good can come from China stopping trade on these goods.
What day is it? Could you please tell me?
Well, in regards to Germany's WWII performance compared to the United States, you can take a lot of ground when you use deception and modern hardware against a foe.
Amazing. You say that China is basically not a threat, yet, you acknowledge that deception and modern hardware works wonders. Lets see; How modern is China's military? Most is not. OTH, they are working hard on their nuke and space forces to modernize them. And they are building neutrons as well as launchers (mobile land, fixed land, aircraft, and sub) at a rate never seen. Hmmmm. Not a threat?
BTW, 1956 has it right. Germany invaded to cause WWI and yes, they were HORRIBLE. As in quick and fast. Germany has had many campaigns over the milliniums. Obviously, Russia, Britain, France, Italy (rome), Nederlands, Spain, Portugal, etc have had their fair number of military mights as told by the large number of colonies that they all had. Limp-dicked indeed.
But I think that many ppl agree with you assesment of CHina. Far too many are hoping that it is not true, but too much evidence that says otherwise.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
"Oh yeah, we could go nuclear - but so can they."
Not really. The US has long had the unofficial policy of first strike capability while taking minimal return-fire damage. See this peer-reviewed article in a major journal: Lieber, Keir A.; Press, Daryl G. The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy. Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006, Vol. 85 Issue 2
"Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
China has at least 400 nuclear warheads, and missiles perfectly capably of striking anywhere in the world. That's plenty to destroy the world as we know it many times over. The Western world isn't really in a much better position than it was with the USSR during the cold war. Taking their resources by force means taking over their land, and you better believe that would be a nuclear showdown...
Where we are in a vastly better position is that unlike the Soviet Union, most of China's growth is based on exports of goods to Western countries (often manufactured by Western countries in Chinese factories). I think it's pretty clear they are just playing poker on the international stage like everyone else. They have no interest in anyone calling their bluff...
Hello all you steel workers who shop in Wal-Mart! China has been buying America's (and everyone else's) resources as fast as the money classes of those countries will sell them. They've been buying because they always knew there would be a shortage in the future, which would allow them to either corner the market or possess industrial resources everyone else had run out of.
The above comment, I submit is evidence that PMF is a troll who just doesn't get it; seems he can't distinguish 'we shouldn't' from 'that's a stupid statement, its' already been done, so you can't say 'we shouldn't''; perhaps the username 'Profane MuthaFucka (574406)' is also good evidence.
/.: mod them down into obscurity.
Remember one of the utmost of important rules: DON'T FEED THE TROLLS. Remember another one appropriate to
And p.s., in the event Japan were not already re-armed, whether re-arming them would be a stupid idea or not is all a matter of perspective when considering the world situation.
Moving on...
Intelligent idiots are we. | Evil men do not understand justice.
I love your comment, but there's one difficulty: China has one of the youngest cultures on the Earth: its cultural inheritors are not the mainland communist Chinese, who's founders pushed all to destroy their own culture. Furthermore, there is not a 'Chinese' culture, there are hundreds of separate peoples and cultures in China.
That said, never underestimate the power of nationalistic myth-making, and its potent obliteration of facts. Furthermore, never underestimate it for the U.S. either: the U.S. was the target(and continuees to be) of Marxist thought and politicking; the West has its own long and venerable culture--more continuitous and thoughtful, in fact, than any Asian country could ever dream of: even before the communists, the ancient "Chinese" cultures long ago actually ceased to exist. Asia never removed itself from a, or subjugated its, superstitious mindset: where Asia today is starting to thrive is where it has taken-up Western development and institutions (brought by Westerners before the revolutions); where the West is declining is where its own venerable institutions are either faltering, or are supplanted by counterfeits making pretense of being in its tradition: like it or not, we're all Western now; and like it or not, we're all under the same ideological threats--the same 'terrorism' of the mind by zealots of modernist and reductionist philosophical bents.
And I'm not trying to be dramatic, or over-serious, or alarmist: I try to appreciate these things for their qualities, strengths and weaknesses, opinions, etc., but make no bones about the necessity of human maintenance--intervention--of its treasured developments: they don't endure on their own due to intrinsic value, because they're human, not above human.
Intelligent idiots are we. | Evil men do not understand justice.
OK, you get it. You may step aside while I fuck with the stupid people. Especially the ones who want to argue that we should re-RE-arm Japan.
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
(dislaimer: I am both a commercial farmer, a long time private organic gardener-since the 50s-, and also a long time alternate energy enthusiast and experimenter and user-since the 60s-, that's why I chime in on these topics and threads. I am not a software programmer, so I don't comment there much...although I do read some of those threads for funzies and to see if a little of that knowledge can slop over easy.. I do not profess to be the ultimate expert, I learn new stuff every single day, but I have more than a passing level of knowledge on these various subjects I comment on here..else I wouldn't, there wouldn't be any point to it.)
*Some* of that waste ag biomatter is plowed in, but a lot of it is ground up now and used for inexpensive and barely functional alleged "nutritional" bulk roughage in animal feed. They DON'T plow it under in a lot of cases because it is a tradeoff, they found they have less diseases that way, and if you go two years in a row with your big commercial crop and it gets wiped out from diseases and/or pests, etc, sorry, you are now in debt and seriously bankrupt and ain't gonna be farmin no mo.
Right now on this farm, I mean this experiment starts next week with the next flock "right now", we are using a form of really cheap to get waste biomass-sunflower seed hulls- that normally just get more or less tossed into animal feed just to get rid of them or dumped on hillsides for erosion control or something- in an authorized by our upstream company experiment to replace/augment some normally much more expensive and getting harder to get wood shavings we use for absorbent bedding in the poultry houses. It could just as easily go into making ethanol when they get that rough cellulose enzymes and bioreactive agents tech down better (said research going on in dozens of labs right now). Then it very well could be put to fuel use instead, as it would be worth more for that.
Really big farms (such as where we sourced those hulls from) now have gone to "no till", they rarely if ever plow anymore, at most they use a very little fast surface cultivation, and a lot of them don't even do that, they just spray various chemicals and fertilizers and rotate crops. Plant, spray, harvest, do it again. And that's in transition as well, ag industry evolves as it needs to. Now some of the newer tech I like, some I don't, but it is way too varied to comment on in a single thread, and this will be long enough as it is.
Biofuel tech is exploding, it is going in several different directions right now, and a lot of it is quite promising, so I will have to just 100% disagree with your dismissal of biofuels for the future, just to get that out of the way.
Biofuels are quite practical solar fusion power.
These biofuels and solar PV and solar thermal are the ONLY forms of practical fusion power we have now, or are *likely* to have in the next buncha decades given the status of the results of the last several decades on man made fusion power, like with magnetic and plasma and laser whatever gee whizz sci fi containment bubbles and so on.
As such, they really are our best hope right now for developing affordable-enough and sustainable and carbon neutral liquid transportation fuels that can be introduced easily full strength or in blends into our already existing and extremely expensive to replace right now liquid fuel based entire "transportation stack"
. So that's why I disagree with you so much. They *are* working so far, and it shows more promise, and just thousands of dedicated scientists and technicians are working on it to get it better, and it will continue to get better because of that.
Here's an example right now where it is going good and expanding, jatropha seed oil for biodiesel in India. It's just a fast growing weed, it grows readily in scrub land they have there in abundance where you really can't grow anything with any food value, especially if you can't irrigate, yet it thri
I understand and we do that with composted manure here (chicken litter), huge mass quantities of it. We have a dedicated custom spreader truck for that. This is what we do on our both our pastures and our hayfields. I also use some in my personal garden. I also understand about the petrochemicals, and I agree with you long term it's nuts, but short term it is what we have. I support people buying more locally and more sustainable from organic farmers.
I am way more in favor of biochar production and getting that down into the soil to develop tilth though. It lasts longer (centuries quite literally), remains stable longer, works better, etc than just cultivation, although I am in favor of light surface cultivation, for seasonal weed control, with the crops that you can do that with during the season, row crops. Freaking wheat, stuff like that, I have no idea how to do that, never investigated how organic wheat guys keep weeds under control...have to find out because I am cluless there. I tried to grow a little, just for a hoot, it greew quite well, but man it gets weedy fast, then when it comes to harvest you get way too much weeds mixed in with it to make it worthwhile to separate.
Anyway, just for soil tilth, the biochar as the next "green revolution step" is what I would like to see done with all that huge cubic miles of wood and brush that burns up all the time out west. It also helps better than anything else to help maintain soil moisture, another critical aspect out there and most every place else. They can do *small controlled burns* after harvest to improve the soil and kill off diseases and repleish those things that need to burn to reproduce, and also allow continuous rotating thinning with the goat herds, just expand that practice as well, it's already being done.
As to energy, have to disagree on this topic as pertains to nuclear fission. I am in favor of nuclear energy-fusion, but not fission, except for a very few really restricted niche applications (submarines, spacecraft, etc). Fission has too many unsolvable problems and is a leading source of some really bad geopolitical tensions that could, and quite very well *might*, lead to global war, which then could..well..you know. Just ain't worth it to me to chance that..
I also like our practical nuclear fusion conversion tech, because it scales from massive baseload sized all the way down to joe homeowner size, and he can OWN his own means of production, get it *paid off*, not be in thrall and servitude forever and two days to BIG Corrupt Co., and have both future economic security along with future production security, that can't be mucked around wuth by forces outside his control.
To that end, I have started true "investing" in my own sources, we now have both solar PV and a small wind genny. The genny is currently not being used, but I retain it as an emergency backup. Where we lived previously it was practical, higher elevation in the mountains, but were we are now solar PV is where it is at. That and we use sustainable biofuel, our home heating is primarily wood now, where previously it was a combo of electric and propane. I have to do maintenance all the time, fix fences, clean the creek, etc, where falling trees and branches break stuff or could interfere with the cross creek barricade fence thing I made to keep the beefers in and not wandering around the neighbors yards eating their flowers and stuff (happened before..most embarrassing and hard to get them back in), so I thought might as well use the stuff as long as I have to cut big amounts of it all the time. Works quite well, and is very comfortable and cozy and I do not have to rely on some local energy monopoly for my supply, plus frees up loads of cash. win/win/win for me and is carbon neutral, plus nice healthy exercise with a lot of "resistance training" HAHAH! Big tree trunk chunks get pretty hea