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Pacific Northwest At Risk For Mega-Earthquake
Hugh Pickens writes "Science Daily Headlines reports on research by Oregon State University marine geologist Chris Goldfinger showing that earthquakes of magnitude 8.2 (or higher) have occurred 41 times during the past 10,000 years in the Pacific Northwest. By extrapolation, there is a 37% chance of another major earthquake in the area in the next 50 years that could exceed the power of recent seismic events in Chile and Haiti. If a magnitude-9 quake does strike the Cascadia Subduction Zone, extending from northern Vancouver Island to northern California, the ground could shake for several minutes, highways could be torn to pieces, bridges might collapse, and buildings would be damaged or even crumble. If the epicenter is just offshore, coastal residents could have as little as 15 minutes of warning before a tsunami could strike. 'It is not a question of if a major earthquake will strike,' says Goldfinger, 'it is a matter of when. And the "when" is looking like it may not be that far in the future.'" Read below for more.
The last major earthquake to hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone was in January 1700. Scientists are aware of the impact because of written records from Japan documenting the damage caused by the ensuing tsunami, which crested across the Pacific at about 5 meters (15 feet). Knowledge about what happened in Oregon and Washington is more speculative, but the consensus — gleaned from studies of coastal estuaries, land formations, and river channels — is that the physical alteration to the coast was stunning. The outer coastal regions subsided and drowned coastal marshlands and forests, which were subsequently covered with younger sediments. "Perhaps more striking than the probability numbers is that we ... have already gone longer without an earthquake than 75% of the known times between earthquakes in the last 10,000 years," says Goldfinger. "And 50 years from now, that number will rise to 85 percent."
The last major earthquake to hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone was in January 1700. Scientists are aware of the impact because of written records from Japan documenting the damage caused by the ensuing tsunami, which crested across the Pacific at about 5 meters (15 feet). Knowledge about what happened in Oregon and Washington is more speculative, but the consensus — gleaned from studies of coastal estuaries, land formations, and river channels — is that the physical alteration to the coast was stunning. The outer coastal regions subsided and drowned coastal marshlands and forests, which were subsequently covered with younger sediments. "Perhaps more striking than the probability numbers is that we ... have already gone longer without an earthquake than 75% of the known times between earthquakes in the last 10,000 years," says Goldfinger. "And 50 years from now, that number will rise to 85 percent."
Seriously? A man named Goldfinger is threatening the Pacific Northwest with tidal waves and earthquakes?
Well, at least MI5 will save us...
... why I'm glad I don't live in California.
Hey, Microsoft, arrrreee youuuuu ready to ruuuuuuuummmmbllle!!!!!!!
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By extrapolation
http://xkcd.com/605/
This information is great and all, but now what? Sure, the governments could be responsible and dust off the ol' disaster plans and have more frequent drills, but honestly, the day that the big one (earthquake, or, earthquake plus tidal wave) hits, the situation is going to be FUBAR no matter what people do. Sure, some preparedness will result in minor differences in life loss, etc. but in the grand scheme of things the same net effect will occur: total destruction. Therefore, the government, the people, anyone will do nothing but scoff at the prediction, until it happens, and then will cry "why didn't anyone tell me about this or do anything".
Cheking out Chris Goldfinger's credentials this will be big, they will be rocking as far away as the Caribbean.
Clearly it's BP's fault. Those evil Belgians!
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
If they can hang on 'til the end of 2012, the problem will go away.
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
California may be west of many things, but last time I checked it was on the east side of the Pacific.
There is a lot of preparation that could help. Have dry food. Have water for a few days. Be prepared to move out of the area for a few days until water and electricity are available again.
Unfortunately, those who predict an earthquake don't give much guidance for preparation. It would be useful to know, for example, what an earthquake is likely to do to a wooden house held together by nails.
The subduction zone is off the coast. How would an earthquake there affect Portland, Oregon, which is 80 miles inland?
What bridges would be destroyed in Portland? What buildings?
We need more information. It is useful to prepare.
I've lived south of Seattle for 30 years, and predictions like these have been coming for years and years. I've personally felt 2 earthquakes, and seen dust from Mt. Saint Helens. While this doesn't minimize the likelihood of another big earthquake, I just question the reason this is news - especially on /.
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Its 5m, not 15. But you're right. 5m is not 15 feet - it is precisely 16.4041995 feet.
just because something happened in the past doesn't mean that it will happen again. let's take a hard look at the facts and the numbers, and not be frightened by prophecy. statistics tell the story that you want to tell.
Remember kids, if you're not paying for the service, YOU ARE THE PRODUCT THAT IS BEING SOLD.
... if San Andreas was a dead giveaway. In other news, scientists warn that a tornado catastrophe could hit Kansas in the next 10 years...
Way to go, grrrl!
I'm curious what the impact of earthquakes in/around the NW would have on the Yellowstone Caldera.
Granted, it sounds like the earthquakes in the NW are orders of magnitude more frequent (and less catastrophic) than the eruption of the Yellowstone formation, but it seems likely that one might impact the other, being that they're only what, about 700mi apart?
-Styopa
I've lived in British Columbia for 28 years and this is old news. They've been measuring the distance and stress on the plates between Vancouver and Vancouver Island for decades. Most of us are well aware that at any time we could get hit with an earthquake of biblical proportions.
For the rest of the world they are referring to the North Eastern Pacific.
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Really this is news worthy?? Doesn't the world realize that we live on top of a molten core that is a river of rock and that the surface that we live on could be equated to the shell of an egg. Easily cracked and fragile with lots of pressure from below? Why don't we just report pending massive earthquakes and volcanoes "ON THE EARTH" and be done with it?
If it isn't broke, tinker with it till it is!
Ducks and Beavers living together, UTTER CONFUSION!!!!
It the blackhawks after they beat Nashville it got flooded Vancouver is ok for now. But now is SJ next???
Will California become it's own nation after it breaks off from the usa? It if becomes a island?
37%? 37% even? Are you sure it's not 37.367%?
Honestly, guys.
I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
It would be so easy to get a job after the quake.
(similar to the way we use vaccines to create anti-bodies of stronger strains of virii and bacteria?
Oh, seems that maybe its not such a financially sound idea as pointed out here http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002552.html . But can you put a price on human life?
... why I'm sad Washington DC isn't in Washington. :-(
I thought Goldfinger was the one where Bond has to stop the Fort Knox being blown up with a nuclear device.
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
Actually, there was a pretty interesting BBC Horizon show on this a while back. Possibly the origin of the Thunderbird legend in Native American mythology and they traced a likely quake to a Tsunami that caused flooding in Japan according to an existing written record that is well dated. Aside from coastal flooding the question was whether the modern buildings would bend or break. Show left it with, "it'll be an interesting test."
"... you deserve to die in an earthquake."
If you have some answers, why not supply them for everyone to read, rather than talking violence?
First time I visited my friend (he is an earthquake expert) at UBC ten years ago, he told me that they are waiting for their own "Big One" to happen, one day or another.
Since the danger for the area is known, I hope that Vancouver area buildings conform to an appropriate construction code...it is a pity that such a lovely city is living with such a danger hanging over its future.
New Zealand, and its capital, Wellington, in particular, have been known to be under existential threat from earthquakes, tsunamis and what have you for donkey's years. The Kiwis have made enormous strides in reinforced concreting and earthquake-proofing, and now large numbers of large buildings are expected to "survive" any very large earthquakes. What's more, the major Wellington fault line is known to run adjacent and parallel to the largest access road to the city, and steps are being made to improve the state of the "alternate" road slated for use when/if the other one goes underwater. There's plenty you can do on a smaller scale too - ensure water filtration equipment is available in useful places, hard copy guides to survival techniques. Sure, things will be fucked up badly IF the legendary "BIG ONE" hits, but your apathetic attitude would NOT be appreciated by your neighbours if you happened to live "down under".
Really? There could be a huge earthquake capable of swallowing up the Microsoft headquarters into the ground?
Oh please please please please please let there be an earthquake!
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It's unknown if large geological events like this occur according to any central tendency. It may be that the mean time between large earthquakes is not related to the mean. Ultimately we have no idea, the data is not good enough to say. Saying that an earthquake of magnitude X is likely in Y period of time is basically just a guess at this point.
Move elsewhere as soon as you can. I don't think most people realise just how dangerous it is to live in those areas over time.
California is going to break off to go hang with Hawaii.
Alaska can come too.
Looks like I picked a bad time to move to Seattle.
-- Give me ambiguity or give me something else!
The Bible is just big boned
I've got Plissken's surfboard. Believe you me, I'm ready!
When I lived in Vancouver, B.C. in the 1980s these "super-quake" stories about the northwest were common, and just as full of lurid and horrible details of destruction. It's not that I think the stories are incorrect so much as they serve no purpose other than to feed the human hunger for new and overwhelming things to fear.
I've lived in Los Angeles since I left Vancouver and been faced with the same cycle of destruction predictions and they serve no useful purpose. They are not instructive. They just terrify people to no real end. How are people supposed to respond to a supposedly impending natural disaster that spells utter destruction? Should we abandon every part of the U.S. that has been under "super-quake" warning for the last 100 years? So there goes the entire west coast? What about the New Madrid fault? Ok, we'll clear out the midwest from top to bottom. Hmm, isn't there a big fault in the northeast that threatens Quebec and New York? Then everyone can move to the southeast. Where they'll all get killed by hurricanes.
The morons and hippies, on the other hand...
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Thank God I don't live in Seattle!
As a native to the Pacific Northwest, this is something you are constantly aware of. Every time there is a major earthquake or tsunami, the local news posts stories about how the "Big one" is due to hit in the next 50 years. Every time a volcanic eruption becomes major news, we get reports about how Mount Rainer is going to erupt and bury my hometown. I was born a year after our last major volcanic eruption, so you could say that this has been something I have been aware of my entire life.
More interesting than when the big one is going to hit is how well we are setup to handle it when it does. I was in a building rated only for a 7.0 Ricter magnitude quake during our last major quake (which measured 6.8), and there were major fears that the building was going to collapse either during or just after the quake. Luckily for me, it weathered the quake with only minor damage.
However, after the Chile quake last year, I heard a report from our local NPR affiliate comparing the infrastructure of the NW with the infrastructure of Chile (our buildings are built to roughly the same standards, and are around the same age), and mentioning that the state governments up here were taking interest in learning from the lessons of that quake to prepare better for our next big quake.
'It is not a question of if a major earthquake will strike,' says Goldfinger, 'it is a matter of when.'
When do we have a question of if?
In other news, the sky is BLUE! OMG, it's BLUE!!!!!!!!
Why the heck we have to have this sort of crap in the news after every tiny little tremor is beyond me. Yeah, the Pacific Northwest (where I live) is one of several areas in the world where major earthquakes happen every so often, geologically speaking. There's also a nice juicy volcano just waiting to blow its top. ZOMG, what next? Tornados? Oh wait ... that happens every so often also.
Someone wake me when we have a real disaster.
You know the thing about UDP jokes? I don't care if you get it or not.
Microsoft
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
On the bright side, Seattle will still have the frothiest lattes . . .
I hate to say it, but... This is truly old news. It is NOT a study, but a rehash. Watching the chain of volcanoes in the Pacific North-West has been something scientists have been aware of for many years. They have known that St. Helen's explosion, was just a step, and Hood and Ranier were the ones to watch. (When they go, the quake is soon, inevitable. The 'BIG' one.) Better still, that doesn't mean there will not be other 'BIG' ones. Giving credit to 'studying' reports of many years, is saying 'I have concluded' rather than, 'it is common knowledge in this field, that...' Me? I am not a 'Scientist' in this field... (or any other...) But, I have known this information for many years. Of course, that is because I have not ignored the problem, nor am I looking for a distraction. Things will happen. Yellowstone will blow... The shelf will fall off the Big Island of Hawaii, and a Tsunami will be created. A Meteor will hit the earth. Not news. Things we should be aware of, and should be brought up from time to time. But, not news. Of course, I have heard a rumor that hurricanes and tornadoes will happen... withing the next few years... but don't quote me.
With an earthquake, though, you may end up in the hole yourself. With tornados and hurricanes there is usually some forewarnings so you can batten down and then get outta there. Depending on the flooding it can be rather sudden, but it tends to be more destructive-to-property than fatal, unless you live in New Orleans.
Of course, with an earthquake on a coastline you can get a triple whammy. Earthquake causes tidal-wave/hurricane which causes flooding...
Well the creationists/birthers/tea party people like to think that Hawaii is not part of the USA, just because Obama was born there :-)
Every 5 years, this is a major story in the Vancouver newspapers. Now I've moved away and I'm still going to see the same story every 5 years on Slashdot. Thanks intarwebs! NOT!
In between, I can expect some more killer bees stories.
So all they have to do is PROVE the cop didn't pick them up based on the color of their skin? That should be no problem. And racial profiling is actually the least of the issues here. Go out for a run and leave your wallet behind? You might have just earned yourself a trip uptown.
The fact of the matter is that the Arizona legislature just gave the police the authority and more importantly, the responsibility, to try to make a determination whether someone might be an illegal alien, even though there's no earthly way to detect someone's immigration status by looking at them. Unless, of course, you somehow happen to notice that the "suspect" is swarthy and has a Hispanic accent. Think you've been discriminated against? You get to prove it based on what's going on in the head of the guy arresting you. Good luck with that.
In fact, my understanding is that a lot of Arizona police hate this law, because it puts them in a no-win situation. They're REQUIRED to make a determination of whether someone with whom they have some kind of interaction is a potential undocumented immigrant, PROHIBITED from using any racial characteristic, and not given any other plausible method of making such a determination. So their choices are: 1) blow off enforcement of the law (which some departments have already announced they plan to do) or 2) check people more or less at random. Either way, this law is a big fat mess.
One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
There is a graph showing the increase in earthquake activity based on the actual data since 1973. http://www.believenot.com/
Being funny and being a troll aren't mutually exclusive. In fact, attempting to be funny is often the #1 motivation for trolling.
I like the Wikipedia's definition of troll: someone who posts "inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community." Bringing up "America is becoming socialist" rhetoric in a discussion thread about earthquakes and other natural disasters meets all of the above criteria -- even though it's clearly a joke. (Whether it's actually funny or not is a matter of taste and level of irritation with certain political talking points or with changing topics to politics in general.)
If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
is what we Canadians call it... eh :P
Building codes could be revised to reflect the reality of 3-4 minutes of shaking as opposed to the 20-40 second California earthquakes that are used as design cases today. After 50 years of that, the region would be much better prepared and much loss of life and disruption would be avoided.
Isn't their some kind of mountain that can be formed from this kind of tectonic activity?
California may be west of many things, but last time I checked it was on the east side of the Pacific.
You seem to be unaware of the difference between "the Pacific Northwest" and "the Northwest Pacific."
If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
i guess only Americans would understand that...
For the rest of the world they are referring to the North Eastern Pacific.
Well, I guess if English isn't your first language, you might not realize that adjectives typically come before the words they modify instead of after, so you might not realize that "Northwest" refers to something other than the word preceding it.
Really, I'd blame one's ESL teachers rather than Americocentrism. Also, I'd blame your native language teachers for not stressing the importance of learning the meaning of new words and phrases from context, such as all the references to relevant U.S. states on an American news site. Being Slashdot, I guess we can forgive not reading the article, but not reading the summary is just sad.
If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
"AFK, tornado."
Wow. This is a marvel of unintelligible nonsense. You are to be congratulated, sir.
Comment of the year
As others have pointed out, we in the area have been on alert for this forever. Nothing would be better than having it happen so we can put it in our past. It will be dealt with and then remembered nostalgically - we're in full-blown "remember Mt. St. Helens" anniversary mode right now.
Depending on faults, there is a very good possibility of Tsunamis within Puget Sound:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/pacnw/activefaults/sfz/
Never understimate the power of human stupidity -Lazarus Long
Not true. If the epicenter is off the coast (as the summary suggests), then the nearby coast is at grave risk. This specific coast is a risk.
For more information: http://www.hulu.com/watch/135843/how-the-earth-was-made-tsunami
And yes, this is old news. (But it is scary.)
I won't join Slashcott. OTOH, If Beta goes live, I just won't be back until it's fixed. Sorry Dice.
Really now, there's really just Sean Connery isn't there? Or at least I hope you're not counting Roger Moore....
Bill Stewart
New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
Isn't the "Pacific Northwest", ie, the northwest portion of the pacific ocean actually Japan/Russia? California and it's quite clearly geography fearing population (generalization) is actually on the east side of the pacific.
Panic over!
Glad I moved to Boulder, Colorado (From Western Washington). Now as long as Yellowstone stays put, I'm fine.
Patent: from Latin patere, to be open
Quote: "Actually, you have to actively hide from that sort of information if you don't want it. There is a tremendous amount of information and assistance on structural and non-structural pre-quake mitigation. Google is your friend."
If you have the information, why not supply it, instead of giving a link to a web site with no information, and saying "Google is your friend"?
Those who know about earthquakes seem only interested in building their own importance. It's all, "Be afraid, be very afraid."
To ask again: What is an earthquake is likely to do to a wooden house held together by nails? Most houses in Portland were built before 1940.