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'Peak Wood' Offers Parallels For Our Time

Harperdog sends in a piece from Miller McCune looking back at the history of mankind's relationship with virgin timber. Again and again, civilizations have faced a condition of "peak wood," and how they handled it (or failed to) illuminates the current situation with regard to oil. The piece ends with a quote from the 19th-century social scientist and communist theorist Friedrich Engels, who is not generally thought of as an environmental seer: "What did the Spanish planters in Cuba, who burned down the forests on the slopes of the mountains and obtained sufficient fertilizer from the ashes for one generation of highly profitable coffee trees, care that the heavy tropical rains later washed away the now unprotected upper stratum of the soil and left only bare rock behind? ... Let us not flatter ourselves on account of our human victories over nature. For each such victory nature takes its revenge on us. Each victory, it is true, in the first place brings about the results we expected, but in the second and third places it has quite different, unforeseen effects which only too often cancel the first."

604 comments

  1. In other words by jhoegl · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Life has unforeseen consequences.

    1. Re:In other words by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 4, Insightful

      only to those too stupid to leap ahead with out thinking.

    2. Re:In other words by MousePotato · · Score: 0

      shit happens?

      wow.

    3. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If someone came up with a grand unified theory, you'd say, "so, the universe functions a certain way. wow."

      and this isn't merely that "shit happens." It's "short-sightedness causes shit that could be prevented from happening."

      An earthquake, a volcano, a hurricane, an asteroid strike...these things are "shit that happens." Deforestation, global warming, pollution...these things are made to happen.

    4. Re:In other words by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      Worse than that: Life has unforseen consequences and game theory demonstrates that, all too frequently, even forseeing a consequence won't stop you walking into it, face-first.

    5. Re:In other words by timeOday · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Or selfish enough to know full well - and do it anyways.

    6. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It doesn't have to, but why should a cynic care?

    7. Re:In other words by Ethanol-fueled · · Score: 0, Troll

      Only humans are arrogant enough to believe that they're "above" the other animals.

      When do you see a monkey choosing cocaine over food in its natural habitat?

    8. Re:In other words by Tuidjy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Actually, rats will push a button that sends an impulse to their pleasure center, and ignore food, sex, etc... Monkeys will easily get addicted to alcohol, some drugs, etc...

      I think that the average human is still less likely that the average rat to die of hunger and bed sores because of an addiction. But now my girlfriend has gone to bed, and I better go play Mount & Blade while she cannot object.

      --
      No good deed goes unpunished...
    9. Re:In other words by tsm_sf · · Score: 1

      Actually, rats will push a button that sends an impulse to their pleasure center, and ignore food, sex, etc...

      His point was that they do that when strapped into wire cages with hardware surgically attached to their skulls. An entirely sensible response to the situation IMO. Nobody has ever observed a rat pushing a cocaine lever in the wild.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    10. Re:In other words by Ethanol-fueled · · Score: 1

      My point exactly.

      Thank you, kind sir.

    11. Re:In other words by somersault · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Gimme a break. That's because there's no such thing as a "cocaine lever" in the wild. If you did have piles of cocaine around (very small ones so it didn't kill them immediately), rats or any other animals would probably get addicted too. As someone else has pointed out, pets can become addicted to alcohol.

      --
      which is totally what she said
    12. Re:In other words by A+Nun+Must+Cow+Herd · · Score: 1

      Thank goodness I'm smart enough to leap ahead without thinking!

    13. Re:In other words by tsm_sf · · Score: 1

      Gimme a break. That's because there's no such thing as a "cocaine lever" in the wild.

      My point.

      If you did have piles of cocaine around (very small ones so it didn't kill them immediately), rats or any other animals would probably get addicted too.

      "would probably" isn't science.

      We're getting a little far afield, but the gist is that this "classic" study is fundamentally flawed since it posits a situation that would not naturally occur. You can't subject an animal to horrific circumstances and then attempt to draw conclusions based on it's use of ameliorative substances that you yourself supply.

      Well, ok, you can, but your thesis adviser should have stepped in a while ago.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    14. Re:In other words by somersault · · Score: 1

      You could just leave bowls of beer and whisky out in a forest and see what happens? :P

      --
      which is totally what she said
    15. Re:In other words by tsm_sf · · Score: 2, Funny

      You could just leave bowls of beer and whisky out in a forest and see what happens? :P

      You end up w/ a bunch of (happily?) drowned gastropods.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    16. Re:In other words by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 4, Interesting

      So what do we do then ? We all know our parents (or "babyboom generation") and their parents are responsible for the really excessive "borrowing" from nature. When they started, world population was less than 1.5 billion people. Worse : those 1.5 billion people lived a lot more efficiently than us (not that they knew, there just wasn't sufficient energy. Nothing makes a man quite so frugal as an empty wallet), so "efficiency" increases, barring getting nuclear fusion plants operational, aren't going to help us get above that 1.5 billion.

      If this is true :

      For each such victory nature takes its revenge on us. Each victory, it is true, in the first place brings about the results we expected, but in the second and third places it has quite different, unforeseen effects which only too often cancel the first.

      Then we're about to lose 3 out of 4 people worldwide to genocide, war or hunger. Including 1 out of 2 Americans. But the countries that would be truly fucked in this case would be Europe and Africa.

      What I don't get is how this can even get discussed ? Surely anything -anything- is preferable to losing the large majority of world population ? Add to that, the "sticky" question : who dies ? We all know how the question of "who dies" is going to be answered, since it's just the same as ever : with wars. If you lose, you get exterminated. If you don't fight, and are lucky enough not to get attacked, you starve to death. Anyone in favor of that ?

      And before anyone says birth control, please remember "birth control" will only have real results in 50 years, and 90 or-so if birth control is done in a sustainable manner (meaning there is both an upper and a lower limit to how many babies we get to have). And even if you do compulsory birth control, who gets to have babies, and what do you do about "over the limit" babies ? Or perhaps more directly : how do you kill "over the limit" babies ?

      Seems to me that unless you want every state world-wide to start it's own holocaust, you'd advocate the solution of funding every man with an idea about power generation. Funding it, not just through academia (who have a somewhat tarnished track record here), but more along the lines of : if a dog comes with a napkin with an idea, give him 1000$ for it and see where it goes.

    17. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      But now my girlfriend has gone to bed, and I better go play Mount & Blade while she cannot object.

      I seriously thought that that was an euphemism to describe your sex life with your gf.

    18. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      But the countries that would be truly fucked in this case would be Europe and Africa.

      Except they aren't countries.

      P.S. why do you leave that space before question mark? It's fucking retarded.

    19. Re:In other words by Random_Goblin · · Score: 4, Interesting

      actually there has already been an experiment that demonstrated the converse rat park

      which appeared to demonstrate that addiction in rats was as much related of their being held in tiny cages, as to the inherent "addictiveness" of opiates

      the funding was withdrawn, and doubt cast as to Alexander's integrity

      one could speculate that it is not popular opinion that the way to reduce drug dependance in humans is to improve their general quality of life, such that they don't feel the need to compulsively take drugs in the first place

    20. Re:In other words by somersault · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I certainly don't believe that there's no choice in addiction, though some people do have much weaker wills than others. That's an interesting study, and I identify heavily with your last sentence. I find it sad that so many people feel they need to resort to heavy drinking to actually "enjoy" a night out. I even find it even more sad that so many people are addicted to sugary junk food. A lot of society today is so dull that people need to entertain themselves with what they ingest rather than what they do.

      --
      which is totally what she said
    21. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      let's not forget that by borrowing excessively from nature as you say, they've given birth to much more people than you think is reasonable. We should all thank them that we are alive!

      Second, you mention birth control. This has been tried before, look at China and the result ...

      As for mentioning Engels in the original post as a communist with a vision on ecology, let's not forget the guy inspired the USSR, and see what they've done to nature, the Aral sea, Chernobyl, and other such things

      http://unimaps.com/aral-sea/aral-pic.gif

    22. Re:In other words by TheLink · · Score: 1

      Morphine numbs pain, so if someone finds life a pain, it's no surprise if they get addicted to morphine.

      But seems to me that if they had the choice many guys would pick "hookers" and "blow" (cocaine), rather than just "blow" :).

      --
    23. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not really the equation. Prosperity == population explosion. Shortages of everything but human beings is the only absolute.

    24. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or those too stupid to realise they are leaping ahead without having thought enough.

      To be honest, you sound as though you could very easily be one of those.

    25. Re:In other words by Hijacked+Public · · Score: 2, Interesting

      No doubt there are plenty of examples of leaping without looking, and leaping while knowing everyone else behind is going to get screwed.

      But there are also a lot of times when the full impact of an act can't be known in any practical way. Nature is extraordinarily complex and many very high order interactions can have serious long term consequences. For instance, farmers are finishing up planting here in the midwest. Once again the guy I lease my farm ground to cannot bring himself to understand why I make him leave 10 yard untilled perimeters around all my fields. To him that is just leaving money in the fields. When 'clean farming' first became popular no one thought that it would wreck the quail population, but it does, unless you purposely leave transitions.

      And if your fencerows are too clean you hurt the rabbit population.

      And with fewer quail and rabbits you have fewer hawks.

      Fewer hawks to prey on, say turkey chicks, means more turkey.

      More turkey attract more larger predators like coyote.

      So I have coyote everywhere because of clean farming. And I left out many dozens of other factors. That natural resources are anything other than inexhaustable is a relatively recent development. For the above, Game Management was published in 1933 and wasn't taken seriously until some time later. As far as widespread application of research based management methods the same time frame applies to forests and waterways and minerals and petroleum and wetlands and etc etc.

      --
      "Sacrifice for the good of The State" - The State
    26. Re:In other words by sleeping143 · · Score: 1

      Or to those so arrogant as to think they've thought of every possible contingency.

    27. Re:In other words by stonewallred · · Score: 1

      "Surely anything -anything- is preferable to losing the large majority of world population?" Why? What value do they have to me? If I don't die, then there is no bad side to losing 3 out out of 4 people in the world. And if I do die, I won't give a damn about it anyway. You seem to be very caught up in the idea that human life has some sanctity or value in an absolute sense. When in fact it does not. Did you stop, and cry and mourn the child who died while your reading this paragraph? If not, then you do not value all human life equally. And if you don't value it equally, then there has to exist a ranking system, where some are worth zero and some are priceless.

    28. Re:In other words by Sique · · Score: 1

      When do you see a monkey choosing cocaine over food in its natural habitat?

      Whenever the source is available. Luckily for them they aren't able to actually extract cocaine from coca plants, otherwise we wouldn't have any monkeys left to serve as a bad analogy.

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*
    29. Re:In other words by JBdH · · Score: 1

      with wars. If you lose, you get exterminated.

      Genocide is almost never the conclusion of a war. If genocide is involved war is mostly a pretext for the Powers That Be to able to start genocide. There was no extermination of Germans, Japanese or Italians at the end of WWII, nor was there at the end of WWI. German (and other) war mongerers had a good shot at exterminating all jews in Europe, but they did not wage a war against them. The genocide was possible because of the 'fog of war' that made it hard for moderate forces in and outside Germany to see what was going on, exactly, and - when they found out - had their hands full on with other business, i.e. fighting a war.

    30. Re:In other words by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 1

      Well if it ever comes to choosing which humans to keep alive and which to kill, I'll make sure to put my vote in for killing you ... because you'd do the same for me.

    31. Re:In other words by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      There are often unforseen consequenses even when you do think ahead. "The best laid plans of mice and men..." There are almost always unseen, unknowable variables.

      Life wouldn't be much fun if it was too predictable.

    32. Re:In other words by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "Nobody has ever observed a rat pushing a cocaine lever in the wild."

      Cocaine levers would have to be put in the wild where the rats would have to compete with Whtney Huston. But in general animals will get stoned anyway they can, fermented fruit routinely sends elephants on village crushing rampages in India, dogs in Queensland get off by licking cane toads, wallabies in Tasmania go tripping on the (legal) opium poppies. Youtube has heaps of examples.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    33. Re:In other words by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      You could just leave bowls of beer and whisky out in a forest and see what happens? :P You end up w/ a bunch of (happily?) drowned gastropods.

      Or a bowl full of cane toads, depending on where you live.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    34. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He did not say "wars" totally unqualified. He said resource wars, like Jared Diamond describes for example. Resource wars, whether native american, mayan, muslim, loads of african versions, hell even the English "empire" has done this one or two times (and no doubt other European countries/empires too) ... the end is always the same

      * men are slaughtered, anyone over 5-6 years max
      * women are slaughtered, anyone who is not a virgin or older than, say, 12-14 years

      If you're a jew, or muslim, this is "prescribed" by God, an accepted part of both halakha and sharia. Moses did this (granted, once), and "the prophet" Mohamed did this (at least a dozen times). The new testament, which is supposed to "mostly" override the pentateuch in Christiantiy seems to contradict this, but I'm sure "creative intepretation" can fix that back to Moses' version if need be. The main difference between these religions on this matter is that islam has many stricter and more precise rules for the division of the loot amongst the jihadi soldiers, and islam is also unique in declaring the conquered women the full property of anyone who gets them - specifically the koran specifies you can kill your slaves, even after torturing them "for fun" (something no other religion ever allowed). Thoraic law specifies that you can "use" slaves for up to 7 years max, and you owe them a sum of money for the forced service (this is similar to the laws of the roman empire)). Since offensive raiding and warfare followed by genocides occurs exactly once in Jewish thoraic history*, and countless times in muslim koranic history, this is perhaps to be expected. "The prophet" directly ordered at least 12 genocides directly "on orders from allah" for various (imagined) offenses, e.g. on families or tribes suspected of leaving islam (but realistically interpreted their only crime was being politically inconvenient at the time).

      * and only twice if you commit the very unfair practice of counting what happened in the new testament

      (and quite frankly, let's not delve into the details, but if you're hoping for buddhism (similar to islam) or hindu warfare (somewhere between Jewish and Christian) to be better, you're out of luck. You have counterexamples, but only 2 really big ones : the medieval European feudal system and Japan's feudal system (which encompassed large parts of China at some points in time))

      This is what happens if you lose a resource war. Given that at least 4 mostly unconnected "civilizations" did this, and these practices were normal during the vast majority of human history, I would even say that there's a really good chance that it is tactically the best move.

      "surely that doesn't happen anymore today !" - you might want to ask the blacks in Darfur. Or the people of Rwanda.

    35. Re:In other words by Ricwot · · Score: 2, Funny

      Maybe he just reads a lot of Milton : that man was all about spaces before punctuation ; and blind.

    36. Re:In other words by aliquis · · Score: 1

      We still pick our crops, ship them somewhere else and fertilize with only nitrogen, phosphor and potassium so .. :D

      Probably have less trees to and where we have them (hey I live in Sweden we've got plenty of trees...) the forests are still not as pristine and usually it end up being all spruce ..

      I assume that will remove other minerals and nutrients from the soil over the time and I don't really get why it's done because I assume one would want to keep the soil as nutrient dense as possible. But whatever ..

      The really retarded though is consuming beef and palm oil products from Brazil and sea food at large.

    37. Re:In other words by aliquis · · Score: 1

      ... I think Swedish sold ethanol is usually from Brazil grown sugar canes or something such to so in that case that's just as stupid.

      Lots of countries burn coal and oil for energy, I'm all for using it for transportation instead since it will be used anyhow and it's way less efficient as is to convert some other sort of energy to something transportable. So better create energy for other areas than transportation by other means and save the fossile fuels and other solid fuel sources for areas where you need to be able to refuel quickly.

    38. Re:In other words by HeckRuler · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that was going all sorts of places until "& blade". The geeky race is doomed.

    39. Re:In other words by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      We all know our parents (or "babyboom generation")

      I'm 58, and there are a lot of slashdotters older than me.

      and their parents are responsible for the really excessive "borrowing" from nature.

      You might want to learn a little history.

    40. Re:In other words by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      I think that the average human is still less likely that the average rat to die of hunger and bed sores because of an addiction.

      Have you seen how skinny most crack whores are?

    41. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You mean like cats that repeatedly go back to drink from pools of anti-freeze (leaked bottles in rarely used garages etc.) despite it's being poisonous to them and causing extreme dehydration, and regardless of the fact that other water sources are abundant?

    42. Re:In other words by keeboo · · Score: 1

      As for mentioning Engels in the original post as a communist with a vision on ecology, let's not forget the guy inspired the USSR, and see what they've done to nature, the Aral sea, Chernobyl, and other such things

      http://unimaps.com/aral-sea/aral-pic.gif

      I may be mistaken, but I don't think that Engels has much to do with that.
      In the case of Chernobyl accident, it was caused by lax security precautions. I don't think it's directly comparable with overexploitation of natural resources.

      But you're right about USSR, there was no care about sustainability. The case of Aral sea is famous, but there are a lot of other impressive examples.

      One of those was the overexploitation of forests in what is today's Belarus.
      I've been told that the tree cutters had such a "who cares" attitude (communism didn't exactly rewarded efficiency) that they cut the trees about 1m above the soil because it was too much work to cut lower.
      Nowadays in Belarus you can see vast plains covered with grass where, few decades ago, were forests.

    43. Re:In other words by paeanblack · · Score: 1

      As for mentioning Engels in the original post as a communist with a vision on ecology, let's not forget the guy inspired the USSR, and see what they've done to nature, the Aral sea, Chernobyl, and other such things

      http://unimaps.com/aral-sea/aral-pic.gif

      We do the same thing in the US. In some years the Colorado River no longer even makes it to the Pacific.
      http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2004/3062/images/fig2.jpg ...and that's not because Lake Mead is holding all the water...
      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/08/photogalleries/wip-week40/images/primary/3_461.jpg

    44. Re:In other words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...smokin' the reefer.

    45. Re:In other words by Toonol · · Score: 1

      only to those too stupid to leap ahead with out thinking.

      No, there are unforeseen consequences that even the smartest, most meticulous, slashdotter can't plan. The world's entire ecosystem, taken as a whole, is chaotic, and the exact results of your actions CAN'T be predicted. Burning an acre of woods may hurt the forest, or it may make it healthier... or perhaps the outcome depends on the number of honeybees in the vicinity that season. We can make educated forecasts, but they're purely statistical.

    46. Re:In other words by arb+phd+slp · · Score: 1

      Well if it ever comes to choosing which humans to keep alive and which to kill, I'll make sure to put my vote in for killing you ... because you'd do the same for me.

      Hey, OeLeWaPpErKe, I'll vote with you if you promise not to vote for me. (Wow. The value of other people is starting to become clearer.)

      --
      There's a perfect xkcd for my sig but I'm too lazy to look it up. sudo someone go find it.
    47. Re:In other words by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 1

      Given how often the river dried up a century ago, this does not seem like anything special. Perhaps they should have built the dam even bigger.

    48. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      I don't see how your reference to history refutes in any way his statement that baby boomers parents heavily exploited nature. Maybe you don't consider grandparents parents? Granted they were not solely responsible for it but hey they did do a good job. And yeah they were my parents too in a broad sense of the word parent.

    49. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      What have "men" got to do with it...

    50. Re:In other words by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      the way to reduce drug dependance in humans is to improve their general quality of life, such that they don't feel the need to compulsively take drugs in the first place

      I'm all for that, but how exactly do you intend to improve their general quality of life? I can tell you that giving them more money won't help at all.....if you give a drunk bum $5, he'll spend it immediately. If you give him $100 he'll find all his friends and spend it immediately. If you give him $2000 he'll spend it by the end of the week. So what exactly is your proposal?

      A lot of people want to help out but they really haven't thought about how to do it.

      --
      Qxe4
    51. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      Brazil grown sugar beets actually. But it is chemically identical with cane sugar.

    52. Re:In other words by Gizzmonic · · Score: 1

      The world's entire ecosystem, taken as a whole, is chaotic, and the exact results of your actions CAN'T be predicted.

      So let's charge ahead and use everything up. We can't know for sure that will be a bad thing, necessarily!

      --
      (-1, Raw and Uncut is the only way to read)
    53. Re:In other words by Omestes · · Score: 1

      Then we're about to lose 3 out of 4 people worldwide to genocide, war or hunger. Including 1 out of 2 Americans. But the countries that would be truly fucked in this case would be Europe and Africa.

      Huh? Could you please explain where you got this data from? Am I missing some sign of the impending apocalypse, did the oceans turn into blood while I was sleeping?

      Yes, things are looking a bit nasty right now. But I have some hope left for us. People are rather ingenious, and get even more so when there is a impending need. Yes, there are too many of us, but this is changing, the population seems to be evening out, and growth is slowing. the two most populous countries in the world are currently experiencing a quality of life boom, which will reduce their growth (as it always does). Africa is still probably doomed, but what else is new.

      Personally, I don't actually know how to reply to the rest of your comment, since the rest is based on the completely unsupported conclusion quoted above. I don't see 1 in 2 Americans dying of genocide, or hunger any time soon, much less 3 in 4 people globally. On what are you basing this? The number of people we need to get rid of to get to pre-Boomer levels? Why would that population be optimal anymore? We've increased efficiency, and increased the effective carrying population of the Earth since then. We probably will increase it further in the foreseeable future. Actually, we could probably healthily maintain our current population indefinably if the West decided to stop over consuming resources a bit, and we decided to start switching to more costly alternatives for energy and food.

      This probably will happen in its own way.

      Sure, there may be a rocky road ahead, but I whole heartedly doubt it is leading over a cliff.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    54. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      Please explain how deforestation, global warming and pollution are not shit that happens. They all happen with or without us to make them happen, deforestation, and pollution are usually the results of a volcanic explosion, but can also be the results of an asteroid strike. Global warming has happened many times before men had any hand in it. If it hadn't we wouldn't be here. We may contribute to any of the disasters you name as "made to happen" but we also are a force of nature, in other words we are shit that keeps happening. Don't forget that a beaver builds a dam for a beavers purposes, we build dams for our purposes which one is not natural?

    55. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      But they will if they can find it. There is nothing a rat will do in captivity that he wouldn't do in the wild if given a chance. The chances just don't happen in the wild. Hell we push that button in our own natural habitat, what makes you think a rat has any better impulse control out of captivity?

    56. Re:In other words by Gizzmonic · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, I find it pathetic that people actually waste their time going out and polluting the environment with their cars, when they could be staying at home watching the walls melt! What's wrong with those people, that they have to seek enjoyment from the filthy, disease-ridden outdoors?

      --
      (-1, Raw and Uncut is the only way to read)
    57. Re:In other words by Omestes · · Score: 1

      And if you don't value it equally, then there has to exist a ranking system, where some are worth zero and some are priceless.

      Nope, everyone is worth pretty much the exact same, just some people think they are better. In the long run how much more are you worth than some poor child in Africa? How big is your contribution to the world? What the hell have you done to be worth any more than any other person on this planet?

      On a draconian level, if it came down to it, I would rather you died than some kid in sub-Saharan Africa. The kid has some chance of developing into something meaningful and useful to the rest of us, whereas you probably are long past your prime, and your attitude pretty much precludes you from ever doing anything important.

      Yes, this comment verges on troll, but it somewhat has to.

      All humans are equally valuable (read this as "very valuable" or "completely worthless", depending on mood). And no, not being thrown to your knees at every moment wracked with paroxysms of sorrow at the thought of tragic deaths elsewhere doesn't change this. You are correct, tragedy outside our small social sphere of perception is largely academic, and somewhat (internally) mythic. This doesn't mean anything, it verges on saying "things that happen that I do not know do not happen". Solipsism. No, I am not currently crying, but that does not mean I am not upset. They are not at close to me as a very small minority of people, and this don't have much psychological effect, but this has nothing to do with the worth of them. You must remember you have as much psychological footprint to them, as they do for you. 99.99999% of the world doesn't care one bit about you as an individual either. Moreso, in a long view, you are basically nothing, as if you never existed.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    58. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      However, I find that I may be a bit premature in my thinking. Rat park did indeed seem to prove the opposite. However, the jury is still out on that one.

    59. Re:In other words by OakDragon · · Score: 1

      Then we're about to lose 3 out of 4 people worldwide to genocide, war or hunger. Including 1 out of 2 Americans. But the countries that would be truly fucked in this case would be Europe and Africa. Huh? Could you please explain where you got this data from? Am I missing some sign of the impending apocalypse, did the oceans turn into blood while I was sleeping?

      2012. They made a movie about what was going to happen. Didn't you see it?

    60. Re:In other words by mr.witherspoone · · Score: 1

      Surely anything -anything- is preferable to losing the large majority of world population ?

      Uhhh why is that again? You've met people right? People suck.

    61. Re:In other words by aliquis · · Score: 1

      As long as they cut down rain-forest to grow them it's a fail, regardless of what it is :)

    62. Re:In other words by epp_b · · Score: 1

      See? This is why NASA cutbacks are a bad idea.

    63. Re:In other words by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      He posits that my generation did the most to exploit nature, which is bullshit. Previous generations didn't do jack for the environment; see the dust bowl link. My grandfather's generation (he was born in 1896) was responsible for that. And ecologies were destroyed in the 18th and 19th centuries by mining and the building of railroads.

      My generation was the first to do anything to restore it. We rabble-rousing hippies got the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act passed; your generation can't imagine how dirty the air and water was previous to that. Drive past a Monsanto plant and the air would literally sear you lungs. I have on my bookshelf an Illinois EPA superfund report of 100,000 55 gallon drums of hazardous waste buried on the banks of the Mississippi river in East St Louis before WWII.

      We're not the ones who dirtied it, we were the ones who cleaned up our parents' and grandparents' messes. Nowdays young neocons badmouth "tree huggers" and "environazis". Mine may be the only generation to give two shgits about the environment.

    64. Re:In other words by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Gimme a break. That's because there's no such thing as a "cocaine lever" in the wild. If you did have piles of cocaine around (very small ones so it didn't kill them immediately), rats or any other animals would probably get addicted too. As someone else has pointed out, pets can become addicted to alcohol.

      Alcohol-stealing monkeys in tourist areas demonstrate just about the same percentages of teetotalers, occasional drinkers, and alcoholics as humans do. From this we can assume (perhaps incorrectly) that similar situations exist vis-a-vis other addictive substances.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    65. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      Yes, I see your point. Since you are only 6 years older than me I guess that means that it's our generation who started to care. But I don't see it coming from our generation now. Half of those neocon morons are ours.

    66. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      Agreed. It's why I won't buy Brazil raised beef products. I bet that sugar beets are grown in a slightly better configuration though as they do yield at least twice the sugar per acre and don't require burning the fields to harvest them.

    67. Re:In other words by MousePotato · · Score: 1

      I don't disagree with your points.

      I do however think you missed mine.

    68. Re:In other words by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      It's only the powerful of our generation who don't care. Money and power are the worst of all narcotics, and blind one to everything else.

      I'm ashamed of the fact that Rush Limbaugh is my age.

    69. Re:In other words by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      :-)

    70. Re:In other words by Magic5Ball · · Score: 1

      "Would probably" is the essence of science.

      We can only observe and measure things that have happened, not things that will happen. Science enables us to organize those observations to draw predictions about things that could happen in the future, and the likelihood of their occurrence given a set of conditions which we may or may not be able to manipulate.

      Half of a a lump of element with a half life will decay into something else in a certain time, but there's no way to determine which half decays.

      Through repeated observation, we know that adding a small amount of alcohol to the bloodstream of several chordates has yielded poor motor coordination in many cases, and that the effect is causal. Without doing the experiment, all we can say is that alcohol has a high, but not 100% probability, that any member of a species of chordate, when alcohol is added to their bloodstream, of experiencing diminished motor control, and we couldn't even say with certainty by how much the control is diminished. Through repeated sampling, you could arrive at an average with high confidence, which would be useful to predict some kind of average impairment for a particular quanta of alcohol, but even then there would be exceptions.

      It is the assertion of direct and unvarying relationships between cause and effect which hasn't been science since we got past the mechanical model of the universe a bit after Newton's time. That type of thinking might not even be a sophisticated way of handling faith. Even the Vatican acknowledges exceptions to such assertions.

      --
      There are 1.1... kinds of people.
    71. Re:In other words by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      I'm ashamed of the fact that Rush Limbaugh is of the same species as me.

  2. I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by eldavojohn · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Engels (as in Marx & Engels) is one of the authors of the Communist Manifesto and largely a lot of the Communist doctrine. To use a quote from him and his research to debate oil usage would be pure suicide on a political realm because your opponent would have an easy time pointing out that a socialist -- possibly one of the earliest socialists -- did research to point out the horrors that Capitalism wrought upon the environment. The resulting suggestion for Cap and Trade or retarding economic growth in the name of environmental consciousness would be taken up by the opposition as the evil socialism from the old enemy of Communist USSR and readily gobbled down by the older American people. Because it's fairly common for the American people to choose to see things in black and white where someone is either 100% wrong or 100% correct. Complete and utter bullshit but that's the logic the summary will invoke and it would be impossible to use this logic in any sort of debate. To further this comparison in the United States at least, you'd do better to just re-research Engels' work looking at Peak Wood instead of trying to quote or cite him.

    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Homburg · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't think there's any point being scared of redbaiting - the US right already thinks climate change legislation is a socialist plot. If you're going to be accused of socialism anyway, you might as well see if there's anything useful to be salvaged from the early socialists.

    2. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Grishnakh · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This is where the expression, "even a broken clock is right twice a day" comes into play. Just because someone had some other ideas that were bad doesn't mean all their ideas are bad. America's founding fathers, who any true American patriot reveres, weren't exactly correct on the slavery issue, after all, but they were very wise about many other things. No one is right 100% of the time; we all have our failings, or certain ideas or principles that aren't correct.

    3. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      I don't think there's any point being scared of redbaiting - the US right already thinks climate change legislation is a socialist plot.

      I thought it was just that not burning coal made Baby Jeebus cry.

      Similarly, most of the Republican Congressmen apparently require despoiling nature in order to stop thinking about underage boys long enough to satisfy their wives - thus, we need to drill in the Arctic. I predict a massive baby boom about 9 months from now, given the massive oil spill in the Gulf. :)

    4. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I don't think there's any point being scared of redbaiting - the US right already thinks climate change legislation is a socialist plot.

      If it's not, then why do all of the major schemes exempt the "developing world"?

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    5. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by cduffy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If it's not, then why do all of the major schemes exempt the "developing world"?

      Because the "developing world" will never buy in. From their perspective, we got where we got by burning our resources; if we don't let them do the same, it's Da Man keeping them down.

      Now, could you explain what motivation the "socialist plotters" have to exclude the developing world? I don't see how the evidence you present supports your conclusion.

    6. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      And how do you know which ideas of your America's founding fathers were right and which were wrong? You're taking the current standards of your place and time as right and wrong which. It's all relative

    7. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 5, Insightful

      From their perspective, we got where we got by burning our resources; if we don't let them do the same, it's Da Man keeping them down.

      So what? They're developing nations. If the rest of the world says so, they have to abide anyway. I say this not because I think that the "world community" should be pressuring sovereign nations on how to conduct their economic business but to prove a point. If it's wrong to force them, it's wrong to force me.

      Now, could you explain what motivation the "socialist plotters" have to exclude the developing world?

      Fair question. Restricting emissions in the industrialized world will have a negative impact on heavy industry, manufacturing is the biggest example. It will immediately result in leading countries not being able to compete on the world market with "developing" countries. The amount of emissions won't be changed by much in the long term because all of the emissions that are coming from currently industrialized nations will in short order end up coming from developing ones. The clear result will be to depress the economies of developed nations while inflating the economies of developing ones, when the outcome is that clearly predictably it's not unreasonable to think it's the intended one.

      China has an enormous capacity for industrial production but somehow China and India were exempt from Kyoto.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    8. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by tsm_sf · · Score: 2, Insightful

      America's founding fathers, who any true American patriot reveres

      I actually just finished sacrificing a goat to Jefferson. May he grant me a thousand blessings.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    9. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This is where the expression, "even a broken clock is right twice a day" comes into play. Just because someone had some other ideas that were bad doesn't mean all their ideas are bad.

      You assume much, young Jedi. And you know what they say about "assume"...

      Everyone looks at Soviet Russia and says, "See? PROOF that Communism is bad!" when in fact the USSR was never a Marxist country. Lenin and crew used Marxist-sounding buzzwords to justify establishing a police state, which was certainly a dictatorship but by no stretch of the imagination could it be thought of as a dictatorship of the proletariat (which Marx himself said was only a temporary state). They also completely ignored Marx' teachings regarding the historical and economic processes by which Socialism and Communism might come about, attempting to force Russia to follow a model that it was (according to Marx) not yet ready for.

      Likewise Mao's China.

      Meanwhile, the socioeconomic evolution of the US is progressing in almost exactly the fashion predicted by Marx and Engels in The Communist Manifesto, which you should really take the time to read and understand (along with some history) before spouting any more nonsense.

      Meanwhile, in several European countries where the rights of the workers were actually taken seriously, and where pseudo-Marxist rhetoric was not merely employed as an excuse to make a grab for power for its own sake by some band of megalomaniacs, Socialism is actually alive and doing pretty well, thanks very much.

      Summary: Marx and Engels were very largely correct, and their characterisation of history as a history of class division and class struggle has largely been bourne out. And anyone who can't look at the world (and especially the USA) today and see that this class division between bourgeoisie and proletariat continues very much as they described is a fool.

      Lenin, Stalin, and Mao, on the other hand, were basically self-serving bastards using Marxist rhetoric to justify their lust for control and prediliction for mass murder. Not to mention the lasting disservice they did the world by polluting the namespace for any serious discussion of the issues raised by Marx and Engels.

      --
      Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
    10. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If it's wrong to force them, it's wrong to force me.

      Except that as a citizen of the West you are currently burning far more fossil fuel than those in the developing world. Energy consumption per capita. You can complain how China is now polluting more than the US, but per person a Chinese citizen uses 47.81 GJ per year, whilst an American uses 327.38 GJ per year. There is a strong link between the amount of energy used and quality of life, so bringing everyone in the world up to Western standards would mean doubling present consumption rates. Whether you think global warming is a problem or not, this is not sustainable. Consumption in the West has got to fall by a significant amount, whilst consumption in the Developing World should rise.

    11. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by matunos · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You're right in terms of the politics, but Slashdot isn't a political lobby. Can we readers not distinguish ideas from a communist that have merit from those that do not?

      After all, Thomas Jefferson was a slave owner and rapist, and Wagner was an anti-semite, but it doesn't stop most of us from selectively enjoying the portion of their contributions that weren't abhorrent.

    12. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by jabithew · · Score: 1

      You could do worse than look at Jared Diamond's Collapse; that has some good stuff regarding peak wood (though he doesn't label it as such).

      ...did research to point out the horrors that Capitalism wrought upon the environment.

      Come to Europe, see the horrors Socialism has wrought on the environment. Look at Easter Island where an ism that no longer exists destroyed the ecosystem. I think, in the spirit of the sentiments expressed in your comment, it would be nice to leave the isms out of this.

      --
      All intents and purposes. Not intensive purposes.
    13. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by jabithew · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There's not much Socialism of a form Marx would recognise in Europe. There's a lot more Social Democracy.

      I also dislike this argument "Oh, but we've never had true Socialism, just every single time someone tried to establish it it led to military dictatorship and starvation". It has a faint ring of no true Scotsman to it.

      --
      All intents and purposes. Not intensive purposes.
    14. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by khallow · · Score: 0

      Everyone looks at Soviet Russia and says, "See? PROOF that Communism is bad!" when in fact the USSR was never a Marxist country. Lenin and crew used Marxist-sounding buzzwords to justify establishing a police state, which was certainly a dictatorship but by no stretch of the imagination could it be thought of as a dictatorship of the proletariat (which Marx himself said was only a temporary state). They also completely ignored Marx' teachings regarding the historical and economic processes by which Socialism and Communism might come about, attempting to force Russia to follow a model that it was (according to Marx) not yet ready for.

      Likewise Mao's China.

      OTOH, that is a correct summary of real world implementations of Marxism. The only places it was really tried, it quickly degenerated into police states.

      Meanwhile, the socioeconomic evolution of the US is progressing in almost exactly the fashion predicted by Marx and Engels in The Communist Manifesto, which you should really take the time to read and understand (along with some history) before spouting any more nonsense.

      Only if you ignore what's really going on and strain all the analogies you can. The Marxist interpretation is trapped in the 19th Century. Social classes of that time no longer make sense now. Private ownership of capital has been proven time and time again to work. There hasn't been a series of revolutions by the perpetually disaffected.

    15. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Now, could you explain what motivation the "socialist plotters" have to exclude the developing world?

      Same motivation that Democrats have for supporting Motor Voter laws (registering to vote at driver's license offices), supporting driver's licenses for non-documented immigrants, opposing immigration reform and opposing laws requiring people to show identification when voting. Because hopefully it gains them the support of voters, and so what if those voters just happen to be non-documented, non-citizen immigrants who aren't legally entitled to vote that were registered to vote when they got their driver's license with no check of their immigration status.

    16. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      they were not exempt but simply refused to participate. much like the US by the way. forcing manufacturing to restricting its emissions not necessarily a clear depression of of the economy: constant pressure to improve efficiency is the main force to stay ahaid of the competition. without this pressure (in this case: regulations) economy dictates the use of the cheapest way to produce and thereby the competition is simply a cost race that western nations will lose (do you really want to compete with a barefooted construction worker at 14h - 1$/day basis?). Staying ahead of the wave requires constant improvement and it is also not 'clearly predictable' that in short order all the pollution will come from the developing countries. They depend on a market and if this market restricts certain goods due to regulations or absence of buyers they are forced to implement improvements as well. an example for a regulated improvement may be the ban of certain softeners in plastics in the western world forcing the cheapest manufactures in asia out of business or to change their processes and a collapsing market like the one for furniture made from rare woods gives companies an edge with marketing campaings for certified product lines made from plantation woods or wood from sustainable forestation.

      Your arguments however show the typical black/white thinking of many conservatives with their disdain for ecological ideas "if we can not pollute and consume like before we will be depressed and the others will gain". This is not so. The effects are much more complicated and can benefit the western countries.

    17. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Chrisq · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I don't think there's any point being scared of redbaiting - the US right already thinks climate change legislation is a socialist plot.

      If it's not, then why do all of the major schemes exempt the "developing world"?

      LK

      I know that die-hard capitalists will shirk at this word, but basically fairness. Is it really fair to say that an Indian family can't have a refrigerator to keep their food fresh, unless rich Westerners can have an equivalent percentage increase like a bigger SUV, swimming pool, or equivalent?

    18. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So in all "fairness", we should let 3rd world dictators hold onto power and thus lower the standard of living for the rest of us?

    19. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by jandersen · · Score: 1

      ... would be taken up by the opposition as the evil socialism...

      And yet, as your thoughtful response itself illustrates, this mindset is in the process of dying out, even in America. The anti-Communists needed the Cold War and USSR to make their propaganda and indoctrination seem credible. It is also worth remembering that American anti-anything-that-smacks-of-socialism is a fairly new thing, historically, and it has never been much more than twisted words. When you look at the facts on the ground, many, if not most, Americans practice what can only be called socialist ideals: they care about the weak in society, they care about the environment, they want to share their wealth and so on.

    20. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Only if you ignore what's really going on and strain all the analogies you can. The Marxist interpretation is trapped in the 19th Century. Social classes of that time no longer make sense now.

      Really? Ever hear of something called "the widening gap between rich and poor" which even my father, a lifelong Republican, has come to recognise?

      Private ownership of capital has been proven time and time again to work.

      Yes, it's been shown to work quite well... for those who own the capital.

      There hasn't been a series of revolutions by the perpetually disaffected.

      Are you sure about that? Revolutions aren't necessarily all of the Molotov-cocktails-and-barricades variety, you know.

      --
      Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
    21. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Chrisq · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Its not about lowering the standard of living, what the US wants is for equal increases - so if India increases emissions by 10% so should they. A 10% increase in emissions per capita for the USA is nearly 2 metric tons of C02, whereas for India it is just over 0.1 metric tonnes. Also, in India a 10% increase might mean a fridge for fresh food, probably not even one per family. A 10% increase for a US citizen might be a swimming pool, a larger SUV or a new TV in every room. To me this insistence that we should not keep percentage limits that others don't is obscene, when we are talking about what we consider basic necessities.

    22. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by chrb · · Score: 1

      Restricting emissions in the industrialized world will have a negative impact on heavy industry, manufacturing is the biggest example. It will immediately result in leading countries not being able to compete on the world market with "developing" countries.

      Then explain how Germany is the world's second largest exporter, behind only China, despite having some of the world's toughest emissions standards - including the European Union Emission Trading Scheme.

    23. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1
      Mostly by manufacturing in high-tech segments, where local know-how is more important than manufacturing costs. Germany lost just about all of its low-tech industries in the last two decades - the region where I was born used to be big in porcelain and textile industries, now it is a post-industrial wasteland. It's the high-end engineering, especially in the field of production tools, robotics and the like that are driving the German exports. And, naturally, cars.

      I completely agree that our tough ecological standards didn't hurt the local economy significantly. In many fields, they actually led to a streamlining and optimization of production, which, after the initial investment, actually lowered production cost. Additionally, it gave growth to a whole new field of "green technology", which is a sizable part of the economy by now, and which is getting heavily exported.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    24. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Private ownership of capital has been proven time and time again to work.

      And things like the recent economic crash, what's currently going on in the Gulf, the mass extinctions unfolding on around the world, the wholesale destruction of wilderness around the world, the massive overfishing of practically every species of sea creature humans can eat, (the list goes on)... are among the best examples of this are they?

    25. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Wildclaw · · Score: 1

      I also dislike this argument "Oh, but we've never had true Socialism, just every single time someone tried to establish it it led to military dictatorship and starvation". It has a faint ring of no true Scotsman to it.

      Agreed. Just like when you hear someone say "we have never had a real free market".

      In reality, there have been huge successes and huge failures to both socialist and capitalist theories. Now, if only we could pick the good parts out from the bad and learn from out mistakes. But that is probably too much to ask.

    26. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by somersault · · Score: 1

      If it's wrong to force them, it's wrong to force me.

      You have a plentiful supply of energy available - the majority of which already comes from burning resources.

      When these countries are "developed" then they will be able to move onto cleaner forms of energy just as we are trying to do, but it is very hypocritical to expect them just to skip industrialisation altogether and somehow get to where we are without going through that phase. Do you also think it would be a good idea to suddenly shut down all pre-University schools and expect everyone to just jump into their education at undergrad level? While some may do fine with home schooling, any country that tried out that plan would go downhill fast in 20 years time if not earlier.

      --
      which is totally what she said
    27. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>Is it really fair to say that an Indian family can't have a refrigerator to keep their food fresh, unless rich Westerners can have an equivalent percentage

      I'm confused.

      Are you supporting or opposing offshoring with this post?

      'Fairness' is usually just a code word for something rather unfair.

    28. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Rogerborg · · Score: 5, Informative

      explain how Germany is the world's second largest exporter, behind only China

      1. By value, not by tonnage. A BMW costs more than 10 Chinese motorcycles.
      2. China (or Korea or Malaysia) manufactures the components. The pollution happens there. Germany then imports them, pays a man to program a robot to stick them together, and charges a 500% markup on the component price because the end product is Made In Germany.
      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    29. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out

      Oh, I doubt that very much indeed.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    30. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Chrisq · · Score: 1

      I'm confused.

      Are you supporting or opposing offshoring with this post?

      I'm not really doing either, just saying that we shouldn't say that developing countries can only have a 10% increase in their meagre C02 emissions if the West also has a 10% increase in its huge emissions is far from fair.

      'Fairness' is usually just a code word for something rather unfair.

      very often it is. I don't think I'm using it that way by saying that people in developing countries should be able to meet needs that we consider as basic.

    31. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by zippthorne · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You're going to have a lot of trouble getting buy-in from the people you need it from if you're telling them that they're the only ones who are going to take a hit on this thing....

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    32. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it's wrong to force them, it's wrong to force me.

      Haha, that's cute. You know, I'm just getting this mental image of a robber or some other sort of criminal who's being hauled off to jail and who's pointing at other, innocent folks and screaming that if they aren't sent to prison, he can't be, either.

    33. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Dilaudid · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Good point. Marx's wrote that industrial capitalism was in crisis and its end was inevitable, and imminent. He was perplexed by the durability of the capitalist system, which he expected to fall within his own lifetime (he died in 1883). Marx's "theories" have also largely been discredited from a scientific stance, since he does not make falsifiable hypotheses. Where he did make hypotheses, like the fall of capitalism, he was incorrect. Marx and Engels are fashionable names to drop - having made the effort to read and understand their work I estimate their present-day relevance as approximately zero. Keynes appears to have been far more interesting.

      Haha - I Just saw Keynes's comment on "Das Kapital" - he calls it "an obsolete textbook which I know to be not only scientifically erroneous but without interest or application for the modern world."

    34. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you read a bit more the Communist Manifesto, you'll find that Marx argued that child and women labour was good on Socialist systems, but inherently evil on Capitalist systems. You'll also find that Marx wanted to create a giant industry with machines that changed Nature to best serve the regime, and with a simple google search on communist propaganda, you'll find plenty of drawings of machinery and child and women workers. It's not a coincidence that the utopia in 1984 looks like a giant furnace where people have to work all day, Orwell described what he saw on socialist countries, and precisely because he saw the horror with his own eyes, he spent the rest of his life opposing them.

      Claiming that Communists were environment friendly is terrible hypocritical, having that we use now the communist utopia of their machines raging the land as powerful depictions of Hell on Earth.

    35. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by mrogers · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Meanwhile, the socioeconomic evolution of the US is progressing in almost exactly the fashion predicted by Marx and Engels in The Communist Manifesto...

      Sorry, but that's just not true. Up until about 1945, things were looking pretty good for Marx's theories: increasing alienation and exploitation of the urban proletariat, a falling rate of profit, militant mass movements among the working class; but since 1945 we've seen a series of developments in capitalism that Marx failed to predict. That's not so say that Marx was an idiot, or that his methods were wrong - clearly, many of his predictions were correct - but if Marxist economics wants to call itself a science, it needs to accept that some of its predictions were wrong and that its theories need to be revised.

      Here are some of the things a modern Marxist economic theory needs to deal with:

      • Consumer capitalism. Since 1945, American and European workers have played a dual role in the economy: they're not just producers but consumers. The entire world economy is now dependent on the creation of artificial demand through advertising. Production is no longer the only important economic force.
      • The managerial class. There's no longer a clear distinction between capitalists, who own capital goods such as machinery and run businesses, and workers, who sell their labour power to capitalists. There's now a third class: managers, who sell their labour power like workers, but whose job is to run businesses on behalf of capitalists. This renders the traditional struggle between workers and bosses increasingly meaningless in Marxist terms, because it's no longer a struggle between a wage-earning class and a property-owning class: it's a struggle within the wage-earning class.
      • Small investors. The line between capitalists and workers is further blurred by the rise of small investors, who are typically workers in one business and capitalists in another. This doesn't mean, however, that workers now own the means of production: the structure of the stock market is such that one can be just as badly exploited by a million shareholders as by a single shareholder, while simultaneously being responsible for one millionth of someone else's exploitation. This split between worker and capitalist within the individual has grave implications for the idea of class consciousness.
      • Globalisation. Factories haven't ceased to exist: they've just moved abroad. People in advanced industrial countries, who now have the collective political power to challenge capitalism, no longer see its ugly face. They're increasingly employed either in clerical jobs within international businesses, or in service jobs, making life comfortable for other clerical and service employees, as well as capitalists and managers, with whom they share a culture, a language, and a national identity. The idea that these people might side with the foreign proletariat in a revolution against their own neighbours seems increasingly remote.
      • The welfare state. Another factor working against the kind of revolutionary explosion Marx predicted is the mitigation of some of the worst effects of capitalism by the state. This hasn't happened only in European "socialist" countries. Whether you see this as a safety valve instituted by capitalism or a series of hard-won victories by working class movements, the fact remains that between 1900 and 2000, the life of the average worker in the United States became a lot safer.
      • Financialisation. Some capitalists believe they can escape the problem of the falling rate of profit by investing, not in productive industries, but in derivatives of other investments. We've recently seen the kind of economic instability this can cause. The questions now facing us are whether, and how, financial speculation can be controlled, and more broadly, what impact the increasing separation of profit from material production will have in human terms, and in terms of economic analysis.

      None of this should be read

    36. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      Because the developing world does not have any emissions to cut. It's unfair to demand that people should starve just because you yourself has to cut down on the burgers.

    37. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by khallow · · Score: 1

      are among the best examples of this are they?

      Yes, after all you have to come up with a better way in order to disagree.

    38. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by khallow · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Really? Ever hear of something called "the widening gap between rich and poor" which even my father, a lifelong Republican, has come to recognise?

      Yes, doesn't imply the existence of Marx's class system though. Especially given that "poor" is pretty cushy these days in the developed world.

      Yes, it's been shown to work quite well... for those who own the capital.

      And a lot of people own capital, including the "poor".

      Are you sure about that? Revolutions aren't necessarily all of the Molotov-cocktails-and-barricades variety, you know.

      The Marxist kind are.

    39. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by DarkOx · · Score: 0, Troll

      Consumption in the West has got to fall by a significant amount, whilst consumption in the Developing World should rise.

      Why should this be the case? On what do you base you claim that consumption should rise in the developing world? Why should the western world have to give anything up. I can just as easily argue the current situation is our manifest destiny; and I will.

      When it comes down to it me and mine matter much more to me then theirs and them; I am for keeping things as they are.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    40. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by TheLink · · Score: 4, Interesting

      > just every single time someone tried to establish it it led to military dictatorship and starvation

      The reason why that happens is because the Communist Manifesto encourages violence (read it and you'll see it). This is the fatal flaw in their implementation plan.

      When you encourage violence as part of your "overthrowing", you'll have a violent revolution. In a violent revolution, the people capable and willing of exerting the most violence will normally get to the top. Most of the time the people that reach the top aren't benevolent and aren't going to give up their power. The American Revolution is probably a notable exception (perhaps someone who knows about it better can figure out why it ended up OK - but from what I see, the USA was lucky to have good leaders at that point).

      In summary: the popular Communism/Socialism Implementation Plan is easy for Dictators to hijack into starting their own Dictatorships.

      This "design flaw" does look rather obvious to me, but I'm "just an EE" working in an IT line so it's really out of my field of expertise. Thus I'll be happy to see good arguments on why I'm wrong :).

      --
    41. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by hey! · · Score: 1

      So in all "fairness", we should let 3rd world dictators hold onto power and thus lower the standard of living for the rest of us?

      That has to win the prize for the biggest non-sequitur I've ever read on Slashdot... and that's saying something. That's like saying, "Our policies should take into account that this neighborhood is already experiencing more than its share of robbery. THEREFORE we should let the rapists run wild there."

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    42. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Devout_IPUite · · Score: 1

      What the fuck is wrong with you?

    43. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by domatic · · Score: 1

      For the sake of argument, let's say communism is no better or worse than a Western democracy. The Engels quote is still not all that powerful. Planned economies have demonstrated an ability to wreck the environment at least as powerful as the Western economies. The Soviets had areas where anthrax and who knows what else got loose. Imagine driving down the highway when see a sign that says: "Roll up your windows and cross the next 200km as quickly as possible." Weapons programs aside, concern for the environment wasn't a priority in the crash industrialization programs of both the Soviets and the Chinese.

      And, yes, someone is going to reply that the USSR didn't have the true communism. Well, nowhere else did either. Everywhere it was tried descended into dictatorship and then, if they were lucky, into oligarchy.

    44. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Devout_IPUite · · Score: 1

      No, the analogy you picked is wrong. In this model of fairness mentioned it's about getting everyone to a basic level before trying to boost the opulence of the top levels. Removing the dictator who's a murdering psychopath is a higher priority that removing the elected official who likes to sleep with hookers.

    45. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by stonewallred · · Score: 1

      Excuse me, HVAC/R tech here. /wave China still produces, uses and manufactures R-12, and R-22, as do many other nations. We don't because it "damages" the atmosphere. We can't use it HVAC/R systems, even though both are very good refrigerants with very good heat transfer and condensing properties. But the reason the CFCs were "damaging" the atmosphere was not due to HVAC/R use, but due to massive amounts being used a propellants for aerosol cans and as a expander for styrofoam and related materials. But HVAC/R got screwed we had to retool and develop new refrigerants that required new engineering and costs a lot more. And guess what, we did not cause the problem. Contrary to news reports, HVAC/R people want to keep the refrigerant inside the equipment, not in the atmosphere. The AC or cooler won't work if the magic pixie gas is not inside.

    46. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      You can complain how China is now polluting more than the US, but per person a Chinese citizen uses 47.81 GJ per year, whilst an American uses 327.38 GJ per year.

      So they get to keep polluting because they were good at pumping out babies?

      I have an idea - if you're REALLY serious about reducing consumption, how about we start taxing people globally based on how many children they have? Since the industrialized nations generally have birth rates which are below sustainability, I'd be quite happy to "help the environment" in that manner. Why screw with carbon emissions when we can address the issue much more directly?

    47. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by gilleain · · Score: 1

      Well put it like this then : some people are in a lifeboat, and a couple of them (the west) are eating up half the supplies, while the rest have to make do with much smaller amounts. At this rate, all the food will be used up, so something has to change. Is it that

      a) The rations should be shared out equally. Or

      b) The developing nations have the same, but the ones that were eating more have to cut down.

      It's a matter of perspective.

    48. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, communism is eco-friendly? hahahahahahaha

      Maybe if Al Gore was the Dictator-in-chief.

    49. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by mspohr · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Not only did the developed world get where they are by burning their own resources, they have also burned through many of the resources of the developing world through various forms of colonialism (including our current "oil wars" in the middle east).

      The developing world has a right to use their (remaining) resources as they see fit. If the developed world is concerned about damage from use of these resources or wants access to them, they should be ready to pay fairly for the privilege. There are appropriate development paths which include education, health, renewable energy, etc. that could lead to sustainable development but these are not favored because it would cost the rich world in direct development aid and also loss of power to exploit the developing world. An educated, healthy, economically sustainable "third world" is a great threat to the current rich world corporate and military powers so it will not happen.

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    50. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      The problem is, we can either say that AGW is a crisis that requires drastic action or we can say that we need to be fair and allow the developing world to expand its CO2 generation at whatever rate it wants. If AGW is the critical problem that those who propose massive change in the first world claim it is, then we don't have the luxury of being fair.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    51. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by kramerd · · Score: 1

      Also by tonnage.

      The BMW 5 series weighs over 5000 lbs, whereas the average motorcycle weighs around 300. Granted, the german style gold wing motorcycle crashes in around 790, but there aren't that many heavy weight motorcycles in China.

    52. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by lehphyro · · Score: 1

      And consumption is rising in the developing world while you dont descrease yours. That's why it's the END OF THE WORLD! OMG!

    53. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by drsquare · · Score: 1

      People say that about the 'free market' too. Apparently every time capitalists screw someone over, it's the fault of government regulating them too much. Or not enough, or something. And I'm not sure that socialism has ever been tried. The people in the Soviet union had very little control over their means of production, which is what socialism is about.

    54. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Considering that the westerner invented the refrigerator, I think it's fair.

    55. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      First of all, replace "citizen" with "resident". Anyway, for all you know he may lead a "green" lifestyle. I try to use as little energy as possible but I sure as hell don't want to be forced to do it. In any case, I don't think individual households are a major consumer of energy (though it does add up). For example, my college wastes tons of energy because they don't pay for it, the students do.

    56. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Chrisq · · Score: 1

      The problem is, we can either say that AGW is a crisis that requires drastic action or we can say that we need to be fair and allow the developing world to expand its CO2 generation at whatever rate it wants. If AGW is the critical problem that those who propose massive change in the first world claim it is, then we don't have the luxury of being fair.

      The problem is that the USA says that if developing countries aren't forced to have the same percentage caps as them then they will do nothing.

    57. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Chrisq · · Score: 1

      Considering that the westerner invented the refrigerator, I think it's fair.

      Apart from being silly (should only Germans have cars?) the principle of refrigeration was invented by a Persian (modern-day Iran).

      "In the 11th century, the Persian physicist and chemist Ibn Sina (Avicenna) invented the refrigerated coil"

    58. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 1

      And by what mechanism do you intend to enforce that?

      UN? China will veto it.
      NATO? Any catholic or Muslim country (Italy, Poland, Turkey, Greece*, Spain) will block it

      Enforce it with a military? Have European governments tell the US, France, UK and Australians go in and take that population tax by force?

      You'd back economic sanctions against the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Afghanistan, Guatemala and the rest of the Third World? How about on the People's Republic of China, India, or Pakistan? You know...nuclear powers.

      Really this is a tax on Africa, south Asian, Chinese, catholics and Muslims.

      *- Greece isn't Roman Catholic but still considered to be catholic - The Roman Catholic, Eastern Orthodox, and Oriental Orthodox churches believe that their churches are catholic in the sense that they are in continuity with the original universal church founded by the Apostles

    59. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Abcd1234 · · Score: 2, Informative

      It has a faint ring of no true Scotsman [wikipedia.org] to it.

      Except it's not, so... nice try.

      If someone says "some triangles have four sides" and then point to a square, and I say "that's not a triangle, you fucking idiot", that's not a "No True Scotsman" fallacy.

      Similarly, communism is *defined* by the works of Marx. He invented it, ffs! So if someone goes and claims the USSR was an example of communism, and I say "no, that's not communism", that's a valid argument because we *have* a complete definition of what communism is, and the USSR never fit that definition, despite what the red scare mongers would have you believe.

    60. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by random_ID · · Score: 1

      Jefferson wrote an anti-slavery section in the original draft of the Declaration of Independence. I hate when people cite 'founding father' opinions as though they never held conflicting opinions.

    61. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by holmstar · · Score: 1

      I think that the American revolution resulted in a democratic republic because there were separate colonies going into it. The leaders of each colony were VERY interested in maintaining control of their colony, and thus everyone was interested in limiting the power of the central government. I don't know that any of the leaders was all that good. They were really all just working for their own interests. It is only looking back that we see them as being great men.

    62. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "I am for keeping things as they are."

      Hm, so how come we're here then? You know, a world where you can sit on your ass and food is shipped to you from industrial farms by plane? If "things" had been kept as they are, you'd still be hunting and gathering in an animal loincloth, no?

    63. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by holmstar · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sounds like you have an unusual definition of poor. You really think that poor people own property of any note? If so, count yourself lucky, because you have never been poor. Not really.

    64. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It will immediately result in leading countries not being able to compete on the world market with "developing" countries.

      You write that as though the "leading countries" are still able to compete with "developing" countries. Here's a hint: The cost of labor in the developed world is already so high that it's uncompetitive to manufacture there.

      China has an enormous capacity for industrial production but somehow China and India were exempt from Kyoto.

      Except that if labor were .50 an hour in the US, environmental restrictions wouldn't make a difference. The 21st century is no different from the late 19th century in that labor is still the most expensive component of production.

      This idea that somehow any new regulation makes the developed markets any less competitive is a crock. In terms of dollars and cents, it's the high labor cost and the gall that workers in the developed economies have to, like, you know, expect a gradual improvement in their standards of living.

    65. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by phlinn · · Score: 1

      Given the numbers you use, you apparently get this, but I thought it worth highlighting: In the process of raising standard of living elsewhere, resource use would become more efficient as well. Most doomsday scenarios involve taking one variable and increasing it while holding other variables constant. The real world doesn't work that way. The unforseen consequences of an action can be beneficial as well, and in many cases it's not possible to bring someone's standard of living up without improving the efficiency of production.

      On a side note: It's trivially clear that on average, the negative consequences of the set of human actions do not exceed the benefits. Otherwise, we would all already be dead. It's helpful to keep that in mind when reading the quote by Engels.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    66. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      As opposed to most of the signers of Kyoto who said, "we will do x and Y," and then didn't?

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    67. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by operagost · · Score: 1

      The Indian family can have their refrigerator by emigrating to the USA like many other Indian families. We joke about how every 7-Eleven is run by an Indian, but ignore the astounding success of these LEGAL immigrants who broke out of their undeserved low-caste existence to take advantage of the possibilities of our capitalistic society. The answer is not to redistribute our wealth to these flawed nations, but to continue to set an example as a nation where anything is possible.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    68. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by operagost · · Score: 1

      He said "reveres", not "worships", you fool. A pun on "revere" involving a midnight ride would probably been funnier.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    69. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by mpapet · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Especially given that "poor" is pretty cushy these days in the developed world.

      Tin shacks are the new McMansion?
      Starvation the new cleansing regime?
      Chronic illness the new cool way to get that heroin chic look?

      I think you and the idiot(s) who modded you insightful don't have a clue what it's like to have to choose between eating and keeping a roof over your head. One or the other. Not a little of both. Not pay the rent late when you get paid next week. No free money from the Bank of Mom and Dad to hold you over. One or the other.

      I think that kind of decision would change your ridiculous opinion.

      --
      http://www.maxineudall.com/2010/02/should-economists-be-sued-for-malpractice.html
    70. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      > just every single time someone tried to establish it it led to military dictatorship and starvation

      The reason why that happens is because the Communist Manifesto encourages violence (read it and you'll see it). This is the fatal flaw in their implementation plan.

      When you encourage violence as part of your "overthrowing", you'll have a violent revolution. In a violent revolution, the people capable and willing of exerting the most violence will normally get to the top. Most of the time the people that reach the top aren't benevolent and aren't going to give up their power. The American Revolution is probably a notable exception (perhaps someone who knows about it better can figure out why it ended up OK - but from what I see, the USA was lucky to have good leaders at that point).

      In summary: the popular Communism/Socialism Implementation Plan is easy for Dictators to hijack into starting their own Dictatorships.

      This "design flaw" does look rather obvious to me, but I'm "just an EE" working in an IT line so it's really out of my field of expertise. Thus I'll be happy to see good arguments on why I'm wrong :).

      That sounds more or less correct to me. I think many are romantically blinded by the idea of a "popular revolution", which they believe is somehow more likely to come up with a different result than a simple coup. Marx/Engels in particular may have been led to this belief by the relative success of the so-called Bourgeious Revolutions, of which the American Revolution was definitely one.

      The "success" of the American Revolution came over time. Right after the formation of the nation, the US was a minority rule state, with rampant slavery and unbridled ethnic cleansing. But it was slightly more democratic than before. Then slowly, incrementally, it became more successful. Slavery lasted until the 19th century, minority rule lasted until 1920, ethnic cleansing lasted until there were essentially no more Indians to wipe out.

      The American Revolution was "different" because it was incremental, and installed a governing framework that allowed for further incremental changes. Big changes leave big power vacuums for dictators to step in.

      As for the Manifesto in general, it's a common theme in politics that good critiques are followed up with crackpot solutions. This isn't because the people proposing the solutions are particularly deficient, but simply because solutions are frequently hard--if they exist at all. The problem is that people often use the accurateness of the critique as a gauge for the quality of the solution.

    71. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by bsDaemon · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Communism and Capitalism are two sides of the same Materialist historical-dialectic coin. They are the same god damned thing in spirit, basing all measure of the value of human endeavor on material wealth production. That's why they both kind of suck.

    72. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by couchslug · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "the US right already thinks climate change legislation is a socialist plot."

      The proponents of such legislation haven't done a very good job of selling it, or selling the idea of local sacrifice while law-free zones of the world do what they will.

      There is the problem of climate change, and there is the problem of addressing it in ways that are not and are not perceived as "lawfare" against the US.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    73. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      Thank you for proving my point.
      In your worldview, success is a criminal offense to be punished.

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    74. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by couchslug · · Score: 1

      "If the rest of the world says so, they have to abide anyway."

      Good luck with that. Let's outlaw war and hunger while you are at it.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    75. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by operagost · · Score: 1

      Americans want to share their wealth VOLUNTARILY, which has made us the most charitable nation in the world. It's not charity when your government spends other people's money.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    76. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      (do you really want to compete with a barefooted construction worker at 14h - 1$/day basis?)

      Even if I were 20 years old, my answer would still be no. But it's immaterial. Construction is a local endeavor. That $1/day laborer can't work here for that.

      Your arguments however show the typical black/white thinking of many conservatives with their disdain for ecological ideas "if we can not pollute and consume like before we will be depressed and the others will gain".

      You misunderstand my disdain. I think that conservation and recycling are fantastic ideas. I think we should all do it. My problem is with international forces that do not have my best interests at heart pretending that they're forcing something on me for the good of mankind when the clear motive is my destruction.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    77. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by 2obvious4u · · Score: 1

      What does resource management have to do with socialism? Are people really so blind that they can't look past the name Engels and then derive a capitalist viewpoint on resource management?

      I believe cap and trade is a horrible method for managing resources, it creates an artificial market of artificial scarcity. To me a better method would be a direct tax on the resource so that its actual cost would be felt at the consumer level. A gas tax (I know taboo) or a coal tax (another taboo) directly taxes the resource that is already scarce and allows the consumer to feel its actual long term costs. How you invest the revenue from that tax is another debate. I'd lean towards a more efficient infrastructure and electric vehicles. I mean travel and HVAC are the two largest consumers of energy.

    78. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      You stopped reading too soon. I could explain it to you; but if you can't be bothered to comprehend my whole post, I can't be bothered to clue you in.

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    79. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The thing is, the American revolution was not a revolution per se, but rather a trade war which ended in all-out military action. There was no old political order to be overthrown by violent radicals, as the colonies were not supposed to participate in the political life of Britain. The emerging plutocracy of the thirteen states simply decided they would rather have their own country to rule than continue being second rate citizens of a far-away land.

      Compare and contrast this to the situation in France, where it took a lot of head-cutting, a couple major wars and about two hundred years to finally uproot the feudal political system. It's interesting to note that the Jacobins, now synonymous with "radicals" were actually fairly moderate liberals who eventually got overrun by thugs, just as the similarly oriented Kerensky government was in Russia. Any bourgeois revolution is easily hijacked, in truth.

      Communist revolutions, now, are quite another matter entirely. There never was one, outside of a book. Coups d'etat, yes. Revolutions, none, ever. Not even Mao called his actions before he took over China a "revolution" - he spoke of mobile warfare and guerilla warfare and saw himself as a great war leader.

    80. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "the US right already thinks climate change legislation is a socialist plot"

      Yup, because we don't trust lawmakers do come up with fair legislation. We believe it'll be tipped to gouge us more on the traditional oil/coal energy (so the feds get more tax revenue due to mandated increased prices so it's competitive on a subsidy level with so-called green energy) as well as paying off green companies which will back the left, such as GE and NBC (which, interestingly, may have been a socialist plot depending on your viewpoint).

      Note also, that your commentary is also a change--you have to say "legislation" when mentioning climate change. Most conservatives, unlike what the left popularly believes, do believe in climate change, i.e. McCain, who just happened to be elected in the prior presidential election as our big ticket (and to which the right did back)..

      btw, regarding this plot theory of yours, is that a plot by the US left then, to supersede redbaiting with the tactic that those redbaiting are on the right? Now THAT is intelligent discussion that will further your ends. BRAVO!

      There are many reasons we disagree with socialism. More importantly, the current failures of socialism in the US. Most know that FDR had a host of social programs, most which failed or were gutted or ran their course.

      Those social programs that continue to today, like Medicare, Medicaid, etc., often are cited as taxation by the right, and advocated as fair and needed programs by the left. When you lose 15% of your paycheck (such as those who are self-employed) to social programs and it's not perceived as a tax, people have problems with that, regardless what they are. When most of the discussion even today, in modern times, is about these programs, cutting them back to extend benefits, we see this as a failure. Also, 2.2% growth on 15% income revenue is utterly stupid, so that 15% that was lost in the initial year loses on average 2-4% a year in sheer income growth, again thanks to the government's social programs. These things do NOT inspire the right, indeed the US populace in general (given that most elections are one by the independent voters), to look to socialism as a solution.

      Also, the left in the US often back down from their ideals. This is not to say the right doesn't as well. However, when coming from the status quo which is the right (which you will have to acknowledge by default given your claims), the politicians on the left often are perceived as turning around and dumping their agenda or simply don't back their words with longevity. Of course, the right does this, but the nation in general starts from the right of the political spectrum, so to get change, you have to be consistent. Yet politicans on the left sell out, give up, or simply blame the right for their struggles against the status quo, such as you did...well, if you don't back your own programs on a personal level, what hope is there that the people will trust the program long turn when you don't have the staying power to back it? How many liberal politicians simply retired or won't run again in 2010 after a banner year in 2008? If you can't back it when you've got it, how does one expect a program to be there in another 30 years when that politician is beat legitimately, or is dead or ill themselves and can't hold office, or when our current social programs are running out of money? (Personally, I'd shift military spending over, but that still doesn't offset the argument--the socialist program was built to be self-sustaining, and over the long-term, they haven't been, such as social security only working because it takes money from the currently working, with the age numbers moving further younger and younger.)

      Finally, back to the topic of climate change LEGISLATION. The EU, which has carbon credits and all sorts of business, generally simply shifted their economics as well as their pollution to developing nations, mainly Asian. People in the US know this and see it. China, for example, has ridiculously

    81. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      It's not hypocritical at all. We burned coal before we had the ability to make nuclear, wind and solar power plants. The hard work is done. Third world countries can build wind farms and deploy solar panels just like we can. These technological innovations were made while we were burning coal. Oddly enough, it's the environmentalists who are standing in the way of further deployment of cleaner power sources.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    82. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      This idea that somehow any new regulation makes the developed markets any less competitive is a crock. In terms of dollars and cents, it's the high labor cost and the gall that workers in the developed economies have to, like, you know, expect a gradual improvement in their standards of living.

      I call shenanigans. In the Western world, the standard of living has been pretty stagnant for a generation. I make a decent living. I had to get three college degrees to get here. My grandfather had just a high school diploma and he earned enough of a living to buy a house, raise several children and retire at 62. Two of those things are reasonable expectations for me.

      He 1970s and unilateral environmental regulation virtually destroyed American Industry. This is just going to put the final nail in the coffin.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    83. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by phlinn · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But the dictatorial power is an inherent flaw in any attempt to implement Marxism. Ignoring the flaws in the labor theory of value for the sake of argument, here is a simplified explanation why that is.

      In any large enough collection of people, there will be some who don't choose to co-operate. If you don't accept some form of property, than there is no such thing as theft, and them taking enough to live without producing it themselves is legitimate. So someone somewhere has to produce more. But again, with no property, why should anyone produce? If you instead posit collective property, and then say the non-producer can't claim, then they aren't part of that collective ownership, which means you have at best a large oligarchy, which has some level of force to back it up. This still leaves the issue of people producing excess. Who decides what excess is? How do you decide who 'isn't producing enough' and doesn't provide them with the food they need to live? The very concept of making that decision, and the decision to punish failure to produce is inherently coercive, and slowly converts Marxism into some form of authoritarian control.

      To alter your example, if someone says "All triangle have angles which sum to 180 degrees", you can't say "All triangles have a right angle, you fucking idiot" and have your complaint actually make sense. The flaws in communism are inherent, logical consequences of it's premises.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    84. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      And by what mechanism do you intend to enforce that?

      Personally, I suggest plagues for any and all regions (including my own) where the birth rate is higher than the death rate.

      That instills enforcement right into the community, which of course does not want a plague.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    85. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by jbengt · · Score: 1

      Don't confuse allowing developing countries to increase energy use and pollution above their current levels with allowing them to increase their energy use and pollution above the levels that the developed world would be required to reduce to.

    86. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      Everyone looks at Soviet Russia and says, "See? PROOF that Communism is bad!" when in fact the USSR was never a Marxist country. Lenin and crew used Marxist-sounding buzzwords to justify establishing a police state, which was certainly a dictatorship but by no stretch of the imagination could it be thought of as a dictatorship of the proletariat (which Marx himself said was only a temporary state). They also completely ignored Marx' teachings regarding the historical and economic processes by which Socialism and Communism might come about, attempting to force Russia to follow a model that it was (according to Marx) not yet ready for.

      Can you clarify what in the early Soviet policies (under Lenin) wasn't Marxist? It did actually establish real and working dictatorship of the proletariat through council democracy where workers got a larger share of representation (and bourgeois was excluded entirely), you know. It wasn't a dictatorship in a classic sense - sure, it did suppress its political opponents, which is pretty inevitable in "class warfare" if you ask me, but it did have the actual support and backing of the class (proletariat) that it claimed to represent.

      Mao's China is very different because Mao focused his efforts on peasants rather than workers - at that point, he definitely departed the realm of Marxism.

    87. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Rockoon · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      A gas tax (I know taboo) or a coal tax (another taboo) directly taxes the resource that is already scarce and allows the consumer to feel its actual long term costs.

      You seem to have gotten the idea that we shouldnt use this stuff, that we should in fact instill financial penalties for using it.

      Nothing has benefited mankind more than fossil fuels, and nothing has hurt mankind more than poverty. You don't (or at least didn't) know it, but you are an evil person. You recommend that we harm mankind, and for what?

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    88. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      But the dictatorial power is an inherent flaw in any attempt to implement Marxism.

      I don't care. I never addressed any flaws in Marxism, and they're entirely beside the point of the current discussion. Nice attempt to derail it, though.

      The claim was that saying "that ain't communism because it doesn't match Marx's definition" is an invocation of the No True Scotsman fallacy. I'm stating that's an incorrect application of that fallacy. That's all.

      Debate Marx's vision all you want. Enjoy your wanking. But flawed or not, the simply fact is the USSR, China, and other nations *never implemented communism*. Period.

    89. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Dragoness+Eclectic · · Score: 1

      essentially no more Indians to wipe out.

      The native American nations are poverty-stricken, woefully under-educated, had their religions, languages and cultures oppressed for generations, and their citizens are generally treated as third-class citizens, but I suspect there are more of them now than there were in 1776.

      --
      ---dragoness
    90. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Gizzmonic · · Score: 1

      The 1970s and unilateral environmental regulation virtually destroyed American Industry. This is just going to put the final nail in the coffin.

      Yeah, disco and the Clean Air Act destroyed us! Except, we're still the most industrialized nation on the planet. The elimination of the manufacturing sector was done willingly, in order to save a few bucks. Your communist buddies in China thank you for it.

      --
      (-1, Raw and Uncut is the only way to read)
    91. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by jabithew · · Score: 1

      because the Communist Manifesto encourages violence (read it and you'll see it)

      I have. The point you raise is the reason the west European Socialists eventually turned into Social Democrats, refuting the doctrine of Revolution.

      --
      All intents and purposes. Not intensive purposes.
    92. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Dragoness+Eclectic · · Score: 1

      When you look at the facts on the ground, many, if not most, Americans practice what can only be called socialist ideals: they care about the weak in society, they care about the environment, they want to share their wealth and so on.

      Those were Christian ideals long before Socialism was thought of, and the United States was mostly colonized by Christian sects running from persecution. So, it's a long tradition here.

      --
      ---dragoness
    93. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yet you still use socialist tools to express that socialism and capitalism sucks. I love it when people saw off the branch they're sitting on.

    94. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Obviously, moral standards change over the years. This is unavoidable.

      My point is that you shouldn't completely ignore the writings/sayings of a person just because they said some things which you don't agree with, even if they're things you completely oppose (like communism, in the parent's example, or slavery in mine). You have to pick and choose the things you want to agree with, and which ones you want to ignore. It's no different than talking to a friend; you're not going to agree with him 100% on everything, but there may be many things you trust his advice on. You might think his advice on dating is excellent, while his political viewpoints are ridiculous, for instance. Many famous historical people are the same: they had some really great ideas about certain things (like governance, in my example), and some not-so-great ideas about others (like human rights for people from Africa). And their views that you don't agree with are frequently understandable, as those people are a product of their times--back then, in that culture, slavery was accepted (although in reality, many founding fathers didn't really like it that much, some even wanted to abolish it, but in the end they decided to tolerate it in order to forge a Union).

    95. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      To be fair, most Warsaw Pact countries met their targets because the morons that wrote Kyoto set CO2 levels at precollapse of the USSR

    96. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about this then: Socialism is a square triangle. Efforts to bring about a square triangle only leads to squares. Socialist try to defend socialism by claiming that no square triangle has ever been achieved. It's because it's impossible you twit.

    97. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      On a side note: It's trivially clear that on average, the negative consequences of the set of human actions do not exceed the benefits. Otherwise, we would all already be dead. It's helpful to keep that in mind when reading the quote by Engels.

      I would contend that the correct interpretation is thus. The negative consequences of the set of human actions do not exceed the benefits plus the available buffer. The argument of Engels et al, is that we are rapidly expending our available buffer. It is currently unclear how to model events after the buffer is used up. Basic possibilities include; a stable equilibrium, a limit cycle or a catastrophic event following.

    98. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      essentially no more Indians to wipe out.

      The native American nations are poverty-stricken, woefully under-educated, had their religions, languages and cultures oppressed for generations, and their citizens are generally treated as third-class citizens, but I suspect there are more of them now than there were in 1776.

      Actually this exact claim was made by Rush Limbaugh and thoroughly debunked afterwards, you can Google it if you like. I do agree the remaining population has stabilized and even increased in the last decades, but the precipitous drop did in fact happen.

    99. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      How about this then...

      No, how about this: Rather than being a jackass, you simply admit you're wrong (ie, that it's *not* an example of the No True Scotsman fallacy), instead of trying to change the subject.

      But I suppose that's asking too much...

    100. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by jafac · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm sure that the Easter Island native who cut down the LAST TREE on Easter Island jealously fought for his God Given Right to cut that tree down. It was HIS tree damn it. Who the hell had any right to tell him he could not cut that tree down? Besides. He also had the last axe.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    101. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I don't believe I ever implied that the Founding Fathers were of one mind. They had many differing opinions, most notable being the arguments between the Federalists and the Anti-Federalists (one of whom was Jefferson). Likewise, they didn't all believe the same way on slavery either. I thought it was fairly common knowledge that the Northern colonies didn't like slavery, and the Southern ones depended on it for their economy, and the reason it was allowed in the end was to keep the South in the union so they could fight the British. Aren't they teaching American history in schools these days, or do they just teach about George Washington and the apple tree?

    102. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by jafac · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think the reason the American Revolution didn't end up as badly as it could have, is because the commanders of the Continental Army were trained and educated former British Officers, who were trusted by the peasants, because they knew how to fight the occupying Red Coats. And the peasants knew that, implicitly. They acted as a rather civilizing force, and that's largely why US law is based on British "Common Law" - even if our governmental structure is not based on the British hybrid royal/parlimentary system.

      Now - on the OTHER side - there are numerous accounts of extreme brutality by British troops, on the rebelling colonials. Extrajudicial executions, rapes, property seizures, etc. All the typical mistakes that imperial powers make while they're arrogantly failing at "winning hearts and minds" because they're in a "we can win by force" mindset.

      True: Democracy, as implemented in 1776, was designed to prevent subversion. Loyal Torries had faith in the Crown, and the Magna Carta, and perhaps also feared British power. But they were blinding themselves the the fact that their fellow colonists were being subject to arbitrary abuses, contrary to the letter and spirit of the Magna Carta - (just as modern Americans have blinded themselves, post 9/11. . . ).

      NO Document, or system of law can protect against Psychological Denial.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    103. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Gizzmonic · · Score: 1

      And yet the government is still by far the largest giver to charitable causes, and the rich contribute the lowest amount per capita.

      --
      (-1, Raw and Uncut is the only way to read)
    104. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by EllisDees · · Score: 1

      >Really? Ever hear of something called "the widening gap between rich and poor" which even my father, a lifelong Republican, has come to recognise?

      Yes, the gap between the rich and poor is widening. This is not caused by the poor losing ground, but by the rich getting stupidly rich. Ask yourself, how many countries have fat homeless people?

      --
      -- Give me ambiguity or give me something else!
    105. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by poopdeville · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but R-12 isn't recollected at dump time. Refrigerators are not easily recyclable. So they are just crushed, release CFCs.

      --
      After all, I am strangely colored.
    106. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by phlinn · · Score: 1

      You know, that's exactly like saying because their line segments had width, and at a microscopic scale were a bit jagged instead of straight(damn that real world), they didn't actually create a triangle. While technically true, that sort of argument is at least similar to a No True Scotsman fallacy. They have to reach for places where reality diverged from their theory, and harp on them as distinguishing rather than accepting that for all intents and purposes, those nations did implement communism in the only way it can in fact be implemented.

      If you have a theory about spherical cows of uniform density, you can't complain that it's not your fault real cows aren't spherical or of uniform density.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    107. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not whoever you think I am as I've made no statement about any scotsmen. I'm just someone who took issue with your opinions.
      .

    108. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 1

      A plague? What are you G-d from the Torah? Hemorrhoids aren't going to lower the birth rate.

      Or are you talking about bioweapons? Because we are back to the enforcement mechanism, who is deploying these and deciding when to do this?

      This is still a punishment on blacks, asians, catholics and muslims. Its a Stormfront wet dream.

    109. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      While technically true, that sort of argument is at least similar to a No True Scotsman fallacy.

      No, it's not at all the same. Period.

      The fact is the USSR never instituted communism. It instituted *something*, but that something wasn't communism. There's no room for argument, here, as the definition of "communism" is well defined, and it's Marx's definition (since he invented it). You may not like that, but those are the facts, plain and simple.

      Is actual communism achievable? Probably not, no. Which is probably why it's never actually existed anywhere.

    110. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      I never stated an opinion. I stated a simple fact: that saying "the USSR is not an example of communism" is *not* an invocation of the No True Scotsman fallacy.

      The rest you seem to have invented out of whole cloth so you could have something to argue with.

    111. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      Marx and Engels were at some pains to not give a complete definition of what communism is. They gave some broad outlines -- as in, control of the means of production by the associated producers, and from each according to their abilities, to each according to their needs -- but generally argued it wasn't their place, nor that of any political theorists, to define what communism was, because communism would be defined by the associated producers once they were in a position to decide how they really wanted to organize things. They did argue, after all, that there's a dialectical relation between ideology and material circumstances, with material circumstances leading the dance as it were, so it's absurd to produce an ideology in advance of the material basis for that ideology.

      That said, I think it was pretty clear that, from the little that M&E said communism would be, or for that matter what Lenin said communism would be, that the USSR, PRC, etc., moved away from communism, not towards it. A dictatorship by an elite, focusing on rapid industrialization and capital accumulation at the expense of all other considerations, is a form of capitalism.

      However, I do think that a lot of socialists tend towards the "No True Scotsman" fallacy, in that they tend to spend less time then they ought on thinking through what went wrong in places where, after all, a lot of people spent sweat and blood in what they believed to be a socialist system moving towards communism.

    112. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      So how exactly would you measure human endeavor then? Since we haven't invented free energy and replicators yet, there's a definite monetary cost to every human being: food, shelter, etc. Those things all cost money in some way (i.e., either you buy food so you can survive, or you buy land and grow your own food on it), so you have to do something to generate money so that you can buy the tools for your continued existence. So ultimately, humans need some sort of economic system so that they can continue to survive in something called a "society" (since there's way too many of us now to go back to hunter-gatherer lifestyles). At one extreme, there's a system where private property is fundamental, and everyone is basically out for themselves, and people join into groups called "corporations". At the other extreme, there's a system where there's no private property, and everything is owned and managed by the singular government. Most modern societies exist somewhere between these extremes, though usually closer to the capitalist side.

      What do you propose as an alternative? Anarchy?

    113. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I don't think this is quite right; George Washington, after all, is probably the most famous Founding Father, but he never led any colony government. He was a military general who volunteered for duty when the Revolution happened, and then he was elected President of the nation. He never started out as a governor. Also, he basically quit after his second term, refusing to run for re-election, as he believed no one should hold that office indefinitely.

      Looking through Wikipedia, there's 7 primary Founding Fathers: Franklin, Washington, Adams, Jefferson, John Jay, Madison, and Hamilton. Of these, only Jefferson and Jay were governors. Madison, considered the primary author of the Constitution, and who devised the 3-branch form of government, was only a member of the Virginia legislature before his great works. From Wikipedia:

      "Madison returned to the Virginia state legislature at the close of the war. He soon grew alarmed at the fragility of the Articles of Confederation, particularly the divisiveness of state governments, and strongly advocated a new constitution. At the Philadelphia Convention in 1787, Madison's draft of the Virginia Plan and his revolutionary three-branch federal system became the basis for the American Constitution of today. Though Madison was a shy man, he was one of the more outspoken members of the Continental Congress. He envisioned a strong federal government that could overrule actions of the states when they were deemed mistaken; later in life he came to admire the US Supreme Court as it started filling that role."

      This doesn't sound like the actions of someone only looking out for his own (or his State's) interests, but rather of someone trying to build a new nation from many different States that had many different interests and factions. That, to me, sounds like a great man, totally unlike the self-serving, corrupt and inept fools we have running our government these days.

      Why we can't have people like this running our government today, I'm not really sure. I think it has something to do with the effects of the mass media, and the poor state of public education. Also, back in the early days, only male landowners were allowed to vote; this changed with Jackson's administration, and it seems like things have been going downhill ever since. I think the founders may have had the right idea by keeping non-wealthy people from voting: it had the effect of keeping out everyone who was uneducated, and I think they're the ones mostly to blame for bad government policies, and our progression into an idiocracy.

    114. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by sjames · · Score: 1

      Only if you mean no true Scotsman would be born and raised in Israel.

      The no true Scotsman fallacy requires that there be no good argument as to why the counterexample is not in fact a member of the class. In the case of China and the USSR, there are many good reasons why they are not to be regarded as actual Communist countries.

    115. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      But it does show that Kdawson is dogmatic fool that we all think he is.

      I am all for cap but not cap and trade but only if every nation does it.
      Let me explain why.
      China and India are not going to restrict carbon in any way for the foreseeable future. If the other nations start restricting carbon all it will do is shift wealth and carbon output to China and India
      The end result will be no decrease in carbon output and in fact a probable increase in carbon output since both India and China are going to go whole hog with Coal because it is cheap and they have it while the western nations are shifting to Natural Gas which while not still produces CO2 produces a lot less than Coal, Nuclear, Solar, and Wind.
      All cap and trade will do is shift wealth and probably increase carbon emissions.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    116. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      This is still a punishment on blacks, asians, catholics and muslims. Its a Stormfront wet dream.

      Don't forget latinos. I suppose you could lump most of them in with the Catholics, but most European Catholics(the ones that are left) aren't quite as prolific reproducers as the latinos.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    117. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by losfromla · · Score: 1
      Let me fix that for you:

      On a side note: It's nominally clear that on average, the negative consequences of the set of human actions have not in the past catastrophically exceed the benefits. Otherwise, we would all already be dead. It's helpful to keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future performance .

      --
      Only I can judge you.
    118. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Nick+Ives · · Score: 1

      which was certainly a dictatorship but by no stretch of the imagination could it be thought of as a dictatorship of the proletariat (which Marx himself said was only a temporary state).

      Dictatorship of the proletariat is one of the more misunderstood Marxist slogans. To put it in context, Marx and Engels described the current situation as a dictatorship of the bourgeois.

      Even with our limited democracy, with its elections every 4 or 5 years and our limited rights to protest, we still have a society that's governed according to the needs and desires of the ruling class. The idea is that a dictatorship of the proletariat will come about as a result of a working class revolution. This "dictatorship" would use the current, bourgeois tools of government to dismantle the capitalist state and reconfigure it according to the needs of workers.

      --
      Nick
    119. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Nick+Ives · · Score: 1

      Marx wouldn't recognise Social Democracy? Funny how the First and Second Internationals used the term to describe its ideas and the German Social-Democratic party was part of the Second International.

      Social Democracy split from Bolshevik Communism with the formation of the Third International. Social Democracy is just reformism, it's supported by people who think that it's possible to achieve Socialism without a revolutionary break or that the job of of politics is to maintain a degree of "fairness" in the Capitalist class system.

      --
      Nick
    120. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by hrimhari · · Score: 1

      Interesting point. Human population growth is an important number to consider when talking about resource consumption and pollution. In the other hand, one would have a hard time defending population control in a "free world".

      --
      http://dilbert.com/2010-12-13
    121. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by juicegg · · Score: 1

      As far as I see it communism (lowercase) is a movement and a form of society that abolishes (exchange) value. Actual existing Communism (USSR being best example) most certainly did not abolish valuing human endeavors in proportion to material things - workers were paid wages and exchanged that money for a portion of the products they produced. The Communist state did everything it could to accumulate this exchangeable material wealth (capital) in forms that would allow it to stand up and challenge the better accumulated capitalist rival states. Stuff like infrastructure, industry, etc. You could say the Communist countries had some deformed sort of capitalism with the state as a single buyer/seller. It worked fairly well (in terms of capital accumulation, not in life quality for workers) for USSR's early development, but it couldn't keep up with free market capitalism in the end.

    122. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Likewise, is "true" capitalism possible? Has it ever been "tried" in sufficient size and length of time? To what results?

      Anyway, I am amazed at the how stupid the market is, and inefficient! Look at how we treat our oceans. Look how long it takes to ban a chemical. Is there really no better headset for the iphone than the plain whites? There must be a better system, because this obviously ain't it. Read the news for proof.

    123. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Nick+Ives · · Score: 1

      This renders the traditional struggle between workers and bosses increasingly meaningless in Marxist terms, because it's no longer a struggle between a wage-earning class and a property-owning class: it's a struggle within the wage-earning class.

      Those managers, at least up to a certain level, are still working class (they sell their labour in return for a wage) and we'll still need them after the revolution. The fact that they are on our side of the class divide means we need to build solidarity with them as the so called "managerial class" have the skills needed to organise large numbers of people in productive enterprise.

      This split between worker and capitalist within the individual has grave implications for the idea of class consciousness.

      This is a form of false conciousness and needs to be defeated through education. That's not newspeak for totalitarian brainwashing btw, I simply mean pointing out how being involved in exploitation is ultimately self defeating.

      I mean, the Merrill Lynchs of the world are still doing OK even though the market is tanking. Here in the UK, the 1,000 richest people are 30% richer than last year! Small investors and small businesspeople will almost always get screwed under Capitalism.

      Globalisation

      Socialism can only have a world historical existence. The Bolsheviks were quite clear that their revolution would only succeed if supported by revolutions in more developed countries. This insight was written out of history by Stalin and his idea of Socialism in one country, but we know where that went - a monstrous, bureaucratic class system of another kind.

      Because the whole world is now interconnected, any attempt at a revolution would have to be global. Even new attempts to form Trade Unions in disorganised industries in developing countries would, in my view, have to involve global coordination. The Flint sit-down strikes were successful because the UAW activists were able to target the factories where the car chassis were being manufactured. Those factories represented a bottleneck in the production process and so were a prime target. Any attempt to unionise the global car industry today would have to involve simultaneous action at several factories around the globe. The process of doing that is the process that will build international working class solidarity of the kind needed to eventually overthrow Capitalism.

      Financialisation.

      This, to me, shows how useless modern Capitalism has become. Money for billionaires is, in the words of Bernie Ecclestone, a way of keeping score. This "financialisation" is just a form of gambling and like any casino, the house always wins.

      If Marxist economics is a science, it must learn from its mistakes. To fight exploitation with 19th century economics would be as inappropriate as to fight cancer with 19th century biology.

      I agree wholeheartedly. Engels always called Marx's ideas scientific socialism and so open, honest debate is vital to any understanding of real Socialism.

      --
      Nick
    124. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by tsm_sf · · Score: 1

      Actually, his "any true patriot" line really deserved a dick-sucking joke. What kind of asshole says something like that?

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    125. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      Don't confuse allowing developing countries to increase energy use and pollution above their current levels with allowing them to increase their energy use and pollution above the levels that the developed world would be required to reduce to.

      So, how are you planning on stopping them from doing so? It's not like there's going to be a binding Treaty that controls that sort of thing, unless the "developing world" chooses to sign such a Treaty.

      And I've not heard word one to suggest that any of the "developing countries" have any intention of signing such a Treaty, now or at any time in the future....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    126. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      (perhaps someone who knows about it better can figure out why it ended up OK - but from what I see, the USA was lucky to have good leaders at that point).

      It ended up okay because George Washington refused to lead the Army in taking over the government after the Revolution.

      And, even more importantly, convinced his officers not to do it on their own.

      See "Society of the Cincinnati" for more information.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    127. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by couchslug · · Score: 1

      "When you encourage violence as part of your "overthrowing", you'll have a violent revolution. "

      Of course. Since that variety of Revolution must take from all to redistribute wealth, it means that in practice that opponents must be killed.
      One cannot do capitalist things under Communism, and to ensure they are not done requires Stalin or Mao.

      That is why there is violent resistance to Communism. It inevitably turns bad, so the reasonable thing to do is kill all the Communists one can catch.
      Francisco Franco saved Spain because enough people "got" this idea in time.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    128. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by OrangeCatholic · · Score: 1

      >but from what I see, the USA was lucky to have good leaders at that point).

      It's not that uncommon to have good leaders. There's probably been many enlightened revolutions with good leaders at the helm.

      What was uncommon in our case is that they were the best in the world.

    129. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      mrogers: one of the best, most well written posts I've seen anywhere.

      What is it doing on Slashdot?

    130. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      Before I can dispute you, I'm going to need to ask you to define "most industrialized nation on the planet".

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    131. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by TheLink · · Score: 1

      > I think the founders may have had the right idea by keeping non-wealthy people from voting
      > it had the effect of keeping out everyone who was uneducated

      I'm not confident that in these times the "wealthy decent gentlemen" will outnumber the wealthy parasites/sociopaths.

      --
    132. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by aiht · · Score: 1

      Do I? I didn't realise there were rules saying that I have to agree with the state of anything I can't fix.
      Silly me.

    133. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by khallow · · Score: 1

      Tin shacks are the new McMansion?
      Starvation the new cleansing regime?
      Chronic illness the new cool way to get that heroin chic look?

      What does that have to do with poverty in the developed world?

    134. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by khallow · · Score: 1

      Do I? I didn't realise there were rules saying that I have to agree with the state of anything I can't fix?

      It's just empirical logic. The default answer to your original concerns is "Can't do better. Man up." In order for that answer to change, you need to indicate a possible better approach that we could try instead.

    135. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I disagree. Remember, even in the 1700s it was limited to landowners. These days, lots of people own land: that includes everyone who owns a home (even if they have an outstanding mortgage). Probably around half the middle class owns a home still, even after all the foreclosures. Land ownership isn't something restricted to wealthy men any more.

      Another way to limit voting, since a lot of people don't own land due to lack of necessity (such as all the wealthy or middle-class people living in expensive Manhattan apartments), would be to restrict it by education level. For instance, anyone who hasn't graduated high school has no business voting. Anyone who doesn't like that can get their GED; if you're too stupid or lazy to get a GED, you again don't have any business voting.

    136. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Heh, China already has a policy limiting the number of children a family can have, and in most cases it is one child per family, unless both parents were only children, in which case they are allowed two. When is the west going to implement a policy like this?

      Face it, we can't force developing nations like China and India to do what we say because there are already a hell of a lot more of them, than us; 1.3 billion Chinese, 1 billion Indians and both China and India have nukes. Therefore developed nations have to make an agreement to cut emissions amongst themselves and stick to it, then when we've shown them we're making an effort to fix the mess we created, we at least will have a good position to negotiate what they will do to help solve this problem.

    137. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by TheLink · · Score: 1

      If the good refuse to lead, the best leaders in the world might still be no good :).

      --
    138. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Risen888 · · Score: 1

      Dang, I'd mod you up if I hadn't commented already. That's spot on.

      --
      Hey, I finally got my first freak! Took you long enough!
    139. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by Risen888 · · Score: 1

      All revolutions are violent.

      --
      Hey, I finally got my first freak! Took you long enough!
    140. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by khallow · · Score: 1

      Sounds like you have an unusual definition of poor. You really think that poor people own property of any note? If so, count yourself lucky, because you have never been poor. Not really.

      We're talking about developed world poor, not the poor saps that work just to keep from starving to death. They do have property of value, starting with themselves and their children.

    141. Re:I Hate to Be the One to Point This Out by mrogers · · Score: 1
      I think you're correct that workers need to persuade managers that, as wage-earners, they share the same class interests. I haven't seen anyone on the left doing that, however; union disputes are invariably between workers and managers, rather than workers and owners. There are good reasons for that: managers are identifiable, physically present and somewhat accountable, whereas shareholders are anonymous, absent and untouchable. But as good as the reasons may be, there's no denying that class conflict and workplace conflict are parting ways.

      This is a form of false conciousness and needs to be defeated through education. That's not newspeak for totalitarian brainwashing btw, I simply mean pointing out how being involved in exploitation is ultimately self defeating.

      I mean, the Merrill Lynchs of the world are still doing OK even though the market is tanking. Here in the UK, the 1,000 richest people are 30% richer than last year! Small investors and small businesspeople will almost always get screwed under Capitalism.

      To be clear, I was talking about small investors in large businesses, such as people with their pensions invested in the stock market, rather than investors in small businesses. You're quite right that investing in small firms is a loser's game, but if Merrill Lynch is doing well, so are its shareholders - and that means they have a genuine conflict of interest when it comes to the question of working class emancipation. It's not simply a matter of false consciousness - they may realise where their class interests lie, but their class interests, like their individual interests, are divided.

  3. We are predators by assemblerex · · Score: 1

    by design; we do not conserve, we consume.
    Changing to cultivation is a relatively new thing, and we're really novices at it given things like the dust bowl were only 75 years ago.

    1. Re:We are predators by grcumb · · Score: 4, Insightful

      by design; we do not conserve, we consume.

      Tens of millions of Farmville players would like to disagree.

      Okay, seriously: As near as anyone can tell, organised human society became possible with the rise of agrarian societies, so stewardship and resource management are rather central to the human condition.

      --
      Crumb's Corollary: Never bring a knife to a bun fight.
    2. Re:We are predators by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, a farm industry based on massive use of fertilizers, weed killers, petroleum to make the machines work, etc. is a great example of "stewardship". To say nothing of the feedlots and other massively industrialized aspects of modern food production. We have kind of overshot balance I think.

    3. Re:We are predators by tsm_sf · · Score: 1

      As near as anyone can tell, organised human society became possible with the rise of agrarian societies

      There's actually a pretty good argument for the manufacture of alcohol as one of the key motivations behind agriculture. Hunt/gather provides a better diet with a great deal less effort.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    4. Re:We are predators by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not that consumption is bad - it is just that it is necessary in order to produce.

      With time (technology), we get better at producing more while consuming less - population notwithstanding.

    5. Re:We are predators by NickFortune · · Score: 1

      There's actually a pretty good argument for the manufacture of alcohol as one of the key motivations behind agriculture. Hunt/gather provides a better diet with a great deal less effort.

      Possibly, but unless I'm missing something, it can't support a large static population. The hunter/gatherer approach surely needs small tribal units that can move on when an area is depleted. It'd be hard to build a city on that basis, and without cities it's hard to see how larger collaborative projects could be sustained.

      Which isn't to say you're wrong about alcohol being the driver behind agriculture. Just that the GP is correct to say that agriculture was the enabler for modern large scale organised society.

      --
      Don't let THEM immanentize the Eschaton!
    6. Re:We are predators by assemblerex · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If you mean the rise of slash and burn and then chemical / biotech centric farming,you'd be straight on. We're still far from the rosy picture you're trying to present of us being stewards.

    7. Re:We are predators by tsm_sf · · Score: 1

      It seems like you've got the cart before the horse here a bit. I don't see how you'd have a large static population before you'd have serious and intensive agriculture.

      The hunter/gatherer approach surely needs small tribal units that can move on when an area is depleted. It'd be hard to build a city on that basis, and without cities it's hard to see how larger collaborative projects could be sustained.

      Possibly, but you need to quantify what you consider a 'small tribal unit' and an 'area' (I'm not being pedantic, I swear =)

      For example, in the pacific northwest we had fairly large societies built on netting runs of salmon down one river. We have evidence of continual habitation along one stretch of the Columbia dating back eleven thousand years (sorry literal biblicists =/), and these would definitely be considered hunter/gatherer. They didn't, sadly, collaborate on microbrews, but did leave evidence of a cohesive society spanning millennium. The point being that these folks were basically camped on an unlimited resource node (in the popular parlance) without a need for much mobility.

      The topic you bring up here is fascinating (ok, at least to an anthropologist) and is far from hashed out.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    8. Re:We are predators by NickFortune · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It seems like you've got the cart before the horse here a bit. I don't see how you'd have a large static population before you'd have serious and intensive agriculture.

      That's what I'm saying - agriculture is a necessary precursor to city building.

      --
      Don't let THEM immanentize the Eschaton!
    9. Re:We are predators by NickFortune · · Score: 1

      Hit "Submit" when I meant "Preview" (that's my story, and I'm sticking to it :)

      Possibly, but you need to quantify what you consider a 'small tribal unit' and an 'area' (I'm not being pedantic, I swear =)

      Fair enough. I'm arguing from half-assed bits and pieces gleaned from role-playing supplements and other similarly unreliable sources, so I'm not going to try and put figures to that. I mean it seems fairly clear that ancient Babylon (assuming wikipedia's figure of upwards of 200,000 inhabitants wasn't going to be supportable by hunt/gather. I have no idea what might make a reasonable lower limit, however.

      The point being that these folks were basically camped on an unlimited resource node (in the popular parlance) without a need for much mobility.

      I suppose the thing I find interesting is population density rather than mobility per se. It seems to me that you need to have a fairly large number of people in one place to support enough non-producers that they could get together and start discussing blue sky projects like architecture or mathematics.

      That said, I'm not sure how well that stands up to close inspection. Do medieval monasteries disprove the case? Possibly not, since they needed a large organised society to get them founded. The druids on Anglesey? Would we even know if there had been a group of scholarly hunter/gatherers?

      --
      Don't let THEM immanentize the Eschaton!
    10. Re:We are predators by pinkushun · · Score: 1

      If only half of farmville players had real emotions, appreciation and experiences with farming and/or tending gardens.

    11. Re:We are predators by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Temporay cities: Wether it's bears or cavemen, animals will gather in unusuall numbers at certain natrual events such as salmon running up stream or certain plants in fruit. It's thought that the site where wheat was domesticated in Turkey 10+Kya was a place where tribes would gather once a year to feed on the natural wheat plains. In other words there was already a yearly inter-tribal "festival" going for millenia before some proto-geek worked out how to plant seeds and get a better crop next year.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    12. Re:We are predators by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Hunter/gather tribes are usually less than a couple of hundred uncles, aunts, cousins, etc, but they have extremely complex inter-tribal networks that allow them to share territory when nature turns on a regular feast. The site in Turkey where wheat was domesticated has it's own "stone henge", not as impressive but it's at least 5ky older than the Druids.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  4. Collapse by Jared Diamond by slagheap · · Score: 5, Informative

    The book Collapse by Jared Diamond (who also wrote "Guns, Germs, and Steel") covers several historical cases of societies that collapsed. Deforestation is the main trigger that comes up in most of the stories. He also makes parallels to our current relationship with oil.

    --
    First against the wall when the revolution comes
    1. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by rtyhurst · · Score: 2, Funny

      I get "peak wood" looking at Natalie Portman.

    2. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by inKubus · · Score: 1

      I also recommend The Golden Spruce by John Valliant, which recounts the history of forestry while examining the life of a specific, one in a billion tree--an albino spruce tree known as the "Golden Spruce". It's extremely interesting to me that the middle east was once a forest and is now a desert. And much of the Mediterranean and Europe and now there's not much left. Obviously some can be made to grow back, but so much valuable soil has been lost to the sea from deforestation.

      --
      Cool! Amazing Toys.
    3. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by Ultracrepidarian · · Score: 1

      I'll recommend "Entropy" by Jeremy Rifkin. Although I don't buy all his conclusions, he gives us much to think about. For one, he points out on of the problems of the free market is that future generations do not get to bid on non-replaceable resources. It pains me to think of the mess our generation is leaving for our children and grandchildren.

    4. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by TeXMaster · · Score: 2, Funny

      I get "peak wood" looking at Natalie Portman.

      I doubt she classifies as _virgin_ timber, however.

      --
      "I'm never quite so stupid as when I'm being smart" (Linus van Pelt)
    5. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by SgtChaireBourne · · Score: 1

      Obviously some can be made to grow back, but so much valuable soil has been lost to the sea from deforestation.

      More has been lost to urban and suburban sprawl, having been scraped away and replaced with asphalt. Land is not just tiles on a map. There are small areas where it is very easy to grow crops and other areas nearby where expenditure immense effort and resources still won't give as good a yield.

      Collapse is a very well written book with very strongly supporting evidence and observations. In my travels in other parts of the world, I came to a similar conclusion as Jared Diamond. It's not fiction and not for the faint of heart.

      --
      Beta is broken and the link to classic doesn't work. Stop wasting our time or there won't be anybody left here.
    6. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by pinkushun · · Score: 1

      Meh... not enough piercings... ;P

    7. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      More has been lost to urban and suburban sprawl, having been scraped away and replaced with asphalt. Land is not just tiles on a map. There are small areas where it is very easy to grow crops and other areas nearby where expenditure immense effort and resources still won't give as good a yield.

      Actually, most of it wasn't scraped away, it just had a city dropped on top of it. The soil is more or less dead now due to anaerobic conditions, but it is mostly still there. Unfortunately, it won't really grow crops any more even if you uncover it; not like it would before. Even in games where land is just tiles on a map, however, much of this is true. Many types of terrain are poor producers of food.

      However, it has repeatedly been shown that intensive no-till agriculture can produce more food per acre than so-caled "Green Revolution" agriculture. And it can be done on terraced hills, since you don't need machinery. You do need more manpower, but more people need to go back into that industry until robotics can fill the gaps, anyway. People wanted out of farm work because it was unrewarding. First you had slavery deprecating the value of paid farm labor, then it was machinery. Today we have illegal immigrant labor that can be abused in lieu of slavery, and the machines are still running around creating hardpan and spraying chemicals that kill soil. If we accept the true prices of food when it shows up in the supermarket, we can level the playing field to the point where honestly efficient producers of food can be competitive.

      Unfortunately, regulation is trending away from the natural, with recent requirements to actually destroy wild lands adjacent to fields in an apparent attempt to prevent food contamination. If a deer walks through a field, you are supposed to eradicate the field, to prevent any risk of contamination from feces! Eliminating these wildlands means that beneficial animals and insects have nowhere to live, meaning that still more synthetic pesticides and fertilizers must be used. This has got to stop before we destroy our land utterly.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    8. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by careysub · · Score: 1

      The book Collapse by Jared Diamond (who also wrote "Guns, Germs, and Steel") covers several historical cases of societies that collapsed. Deforestation is the main trigger that comes up in most of the stories. He also makes parallels to our current relationship with oil.

      Comparing the content of the article with Diamond's account reveals the weakness of the article. None of his striking examples of actual societal collapses triggered by deforestation are even mentioned in the article, which goes for a soft "literary" approach to the issue.

      And a more cogent treatment would show how closely earlier periods of industrially driven deforestation truly parallel "peak oil" and how it forced the move to coal in the 18th century in Britain and France. Both nations had essentially converted all their forests into charcoal to make steel and drive steam engines, which had the same utilization curve collapse now appearing for oil.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    9. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by bware · · Score: 1

      People wanted out of farm work because it was unrewarding.

      Spoken like someone who's never actually worked on a farm.

      People wanted (and still want) out of farm work because it's backbreaking labor. It was hard when I was 18, I can't imagine doing it at age 60, though my father, and his father, and his father before did. Even with machinery, it's hard physical work. There's a reason why farmers don't live as long as an office worker, and a reason why life expectancies went up as labor moved off the farm. And there's a reason why farming is one of the most dangerous professions, and why you see lots of missing fingers and limbs in those communities.

      more people need to go back into that industry

      You first.

    10. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      In short, you were doing it wrong. You were not only using the most suitable technology available at the time, but in general we still aren't. The fact that you are saying "even with machinery" means you totally miss the point. The machinery let you "efficiently" (meaning, with energy stored in sequestered carbon feedstocks) carry out the same old inefficient processes. But today we have ways to get more food per acre out of less land. These methods are incompatible with typical farm machinery, which is why they aren't functional for mass agribusiness. That's okay, because that's an industry that destroys farmland.

      As for the backbreaking part, I've moved tons of soil with shovel and wheelbarrow each of the last three years (including this one) and I often find it more rewarding than the time I spend punching keys. YMMV I guess.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    11. Re:Collapse by Jared Diamond by bware · · Score: 1

      I assumed because you said that more people will be needed to do it, that it would involve manual labor. If there's some method of planting, tilling, weeding, irrigating, and harvesting that doesn't involve 1) machines or 2) backbreaking labor, please send me a link and I'll educate myself.

      I often find it more rewarding than the time I spend punching keys. YMMV I guess.

      Maybe because you choose to, and it's not you and your families livelihood? Perhaps because you don't have to do it sunup to sundown, six days a week, in weather good or bad, whether you want to or not? If it's raining or snowing or 110 in the shade, you get to say, "Eh, not today"? Or I'll take a three hour lunch break and come back when it's cool? Maybe you don't, but you could.

      Me, I couldn't get an education and find a desk to sit behind fast enough. But then I started farming when I was big enough to pick up a hoe. My mileage definitely varied.

  5. Comparing apples and oranges by Enigma2175 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Comparing timber to oil is not a valid analogy because timber is a renewable resource. We can plant more and within enough time for it to be economical there is more timber. For oil to be a renewable resource we are going to have to bury a lot of organic material for a long time.

    --

    Enigma

    1. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 3, Insightful

      it is only renewable if it is used in such a manor.

      One just needs to look at Easter Island to see how "renewable" trees were to the natives.

    2. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not so renewable that it can't run out...

    3. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by bersl2 · · Score: 2, Informative

      In that the societies mentioned were consuming much faster than the resource could renew itself, I think it to be a valid comparison. Nothing mentioned in the article involved replanting of trees, to my knowledge, but maybe someone knows differently.

    4. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by blackraven14250 · · Score: 1

      Very true, but I think the point was that it at least has the potential to be easily and quickly renewable, whereas oil does not over a reasonable time frame.

    5. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by TrevorB · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Almost, but not quite. We use wood as if it were non-renewable. Certainly it will grow back if replanted and properly cultivated, but the "peak" principle of a limited resource still holds.

      Add to this that as a species we desperately need land for food cultivation. We don't have enough right now, even with advanced farming techniques, to feed everyone. Not all harvested forests are replanted.

      At some point we'll be able to harvest less wood than the year previous. Eventually it will go down and hopefully plateau. It won't be the same shape peak, but it will peak nonetheless.

    6. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      And? it is a stupid point.

    7. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Martin+Blank · · Score: 3, Informative

      Forests in the US have been increasing for almost the past 60 years. More wood is grown than harvested by a ratio of 3:1, and significant acreage has been returned to forests, in part because more responsible timber farms have been created over the decades. We may have at one time reached peak wood, but usage and growth patterns changed, and that is no longer the case.

      Other nations may have problems with their forests, but the US is not one that does.

      --
      You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
    8. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Grishnakh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The problem is that our economies work on much shorter timescales than trees. If we destroy all the forests, our economies collapse and people starve or relocate. Sure, a couple of generations later the forests may regrow, but that's a lifetime or more to humans. Worse, forests only regrow if you put a lot of effort into planting them properly. Left to their own devices, they don't; a few trees may regrow, but it takes millenia for a whole forest to regrow from a few trees by natural reproduction. Humans have only started replanting forests within the last century at best, and then mainly for business purposes (timber harvesting), using fast-growing trees.

    9. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by blackraven14250 · · Score: 1

      No, it's not. You had a point in saying it's only renewable if it's planned properly, but renewable over the lifetime of trees is much different than renewable over the lifetime of oil. You just can't make new oil in a sustainable way and at a useful pace, whereas with trees it's both possible and relatively easy to do on a short time scale.

    10. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by starfishsystems · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yes, exactly.

      There was no option for the natives of Easter Island to plant new forests, once the last tree had been felled. There was no potential renewability for them. They couldn't even build seaworthy craft to go in search of seedlings. In a word, they were FUCKED. And they did it to themselves.

      So every historical and archaeological record that bears on how we handle the extremes of resource management is instructive, insofar as it tells us about our patterns of past successes and mistakes.

      We live with a finite set of resources at the bottom of a massive gravity well isolated by millions of miles of hard vacuum from anything else at all. We are consuming many of those resources at an unsustainable rate. If we don't want to end up like the people of Easter Island, we'd better not take any of it for granted.

      --
      Parity: What to do when the weekend comes.
    11. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We consume forests faster than they can grow. Only the cheapest pines can keep up with us and even then trophy home developments are consuming logging lands in the US.

    12. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by erice · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Easily, sure. Quickly? I think not. In a time when businesses operate quarter to quarter, it takes decades to grow a tree and a century or more for the most valuable hardwoods. Old growth trees are still being cut. Why do you think this is?

    13. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, but virgin timber (aka Old Growth forest) is not renewable, at least in our lifetimes. Maybe after >500 years. So while more renewable than coal or oil, it is an effectively non-renewable resource. Good thing we don't depend on virgin oak trees for sailing ship masts anymore, or for making Ships of the Line, for that matter. Or English yew, for our longbow corps. Too bad Lebanon Cedars are practically gone. Read the story of the guy over there who takes clay & soil and makes balls with cedar tree seeds in them, and johnny appleseed style, just throws them out wherever? The clay and soil bind the seeds, protecting them long enough in the harsh terrain, to give some of the seeds a fighting chance of maybe sprouting and starting a new tree. Hopefully in a generation or few, they'll start to repopulate the hills etc. and make that area a little more livable (if only the cockhats on all sides would stop being assholes)...
      Now what to do about Haiti? Look at it compared to its next door neighbors. You can tell where the border between the two countries is from satellite photos, the deforestation in Haiti (for cooking and charcoal) is so extensive...

      Other lessons learned the hard way...the industrialist who in the 70's made a wood pulp processing plant, floated it up the Amazon to a huge tract of cleared jungle he had planted in some hybrid eucalyptus trees, with the mad hope of making a go of making wood pulp cheaper than even British Columbia (at the time)... I remember reading about it in National Geographic as a kid... I think he eventually succumbed to the same jungle soil degradation. First crop of pulp trees worked OK, but after that, soil was shot and eroded off, just like every other slash-and-burn agricultural plot in Amazonia.

    14. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by gothzilla · · Score: 5, Interesting

      That is set to reverse. The price of wood has dropped so low here in the south that many timber companies can't afford to stay in business and the huge plots of land they grew trees on are in danger of being sold. If that happens, they will most likely be cleared for development or cattle and will never again grow forests.

      I live in an area surrounded by forests that are planted and cleared for use by lumber companies and paper mills. We fear the closing of lumber companies because it will mean our forests will start shrinking.

      The really sad part about it, is the huge number of enviro-nutbags that want lumber companies out of business in a completely backwards effort to "save the forests."

      I really want to get a tshirt that says "Save the trees! Use more paper!"

    15. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by ozmanjusri · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Comparing timber to oil is not a valid analogy because timber is a renewable resource.

      Then think energy, not oil.

      The oil we're using with such wild abandon is valuable to us because it is comprised of densely stored solar energy from millions of years ago.

      That's not a lot different from using lumber stored in forests, and when the stored item runs out, we're reduced to using the much less dense renewable versions.

      It's not impossible, but it does take more effort than simply collecting the stored versions.

      --
      "I've got more toys than Teruhisa Kitahara."
    16. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by watookal · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Sure, WOOD is renewable, but FORESTS are not.

      What I mean is that man cannot create the complex ecosystems that exists in a forest. And we are more dependent on these ecosystems than most people realise. Reference: "The Revenge Of Gaia" by James Lovelock. It's a really good book.

    17. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, using it to build manors is probably not very sustainable.

    18. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Jah-Wren+Ryel · · Score: 1

      In a word, they were FUCKED. And they did it to themselves.

      It seems be a lot more complicated than the over-simplified stories that are commonly told. For example, it looks like climate change - the "little ice age" - had as much to do with the deforestation as anything else. Also there are reports of trees on the island long past the initial population collapse.

      --
      When information is power, privacy is freedom.
    19. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by dasdrewid · · Score: 1

      Bio-fuels seem like a pretty good parallel for replanting, much more so than "bury[ing] a lot of organic material".

      It's resource-intensive (you ever seen a tree farm?). It takes a good deal of time to get to the point of replacing the original (a 100 year old pine might be six or seven feet across, a ten year old might not even be a foot. "within enough time for it to be economical" seems to be a pretty loose statement..) The most environmentally friendly substitution is pretty much boutique service (I'm thinking of hunters who "preen" the forest to provide clear space for deer in comparison to local companies that do fryer oil recycling).

      Also, you skip over places where deforestation due to logging has had such a severe, permanent change on the landscape that it is no longer possible to grow trees in that place. The story in the summary would be a good example. If you are not in an area (or time-period) of easy transportation, then timber could, very easily, not be a renewable resource, certainly not within an economical time. And those places and time-periods are what we are comparing to oil.

      So...no, these aren't apples and oranges. They're a lot more similar than that even, which is impressive, since both of them are timber. :)

      --
      No trespassing. Violators will be shot. Survivors will be shot again.
    20. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by zwei2stein · · Score: 1

      There are more examples of this: in Collapse by Jared Diamond, such examples are for Iceland (deforestation & soil degradation, only reason it did not die out was proximity of europe) and Greenland (where farmers simply killed their soil by overgrazing and made wrong choice of meat producing animals).

      It is also path Australia is currently heading to (salinized worthless soil).

      Curiously eough, there is story of small island that is so far completelly renewable: natives figured out that perfect population is 1007 people and they keep it that way.

      --
      -- Technology for the sake of technology is as pathetic as eschewing technology because it's technology.
    21. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by B1oodAnge1 · · Score: 1

      Last Sunday I drove all day on logging roads through forests with up to 3 generations of tree stumps clearly visible. Trees are a renewable resource. Period. Decades and even centuries are still nothing compared to the amount of time it would take to "renew" oil.

      Old growth trees are being cut because they still exist, and we are using them while we are waiting for other trees to become the 'new' old growth.

      --
      RUGBYRUGBYRUGBY
    22. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And so are you comparing apples to oranges, because you refer to mono-culture, with isn't anything like nature.

      You sound like a company man forester.

      Full of one sided misinformation.

    23. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      for heavens sake

      Other countries have problems with their forrests because rich countries are saving (and expanding their forrests (good) and buying wood from, well, OTHER COUNTRIES!

      I'm rich and want wood
      I'm poor and I have wood

      figure out what is about to happen

      Shit - Slashdot is becoming more like digg every day

    24. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I live in a region that was founded on a seemingly endless forest. The depression set in here early when they cut the last of the virgin forest on the mid twenties. Now the cuts get replanted, and I'm told they can be harvested every 35 years. But if you look at an area that's been cut, you see the original stumps 8 feet across, then the next group about 24 inches across, then the freshly cut ones maybe 10" across and smaller. From the air, you can see the entire region, from Oregon north into British Columbia looking like a plucked chicken. They would love to get their hands on the remaining 9% or less of virgin forest that lies within the Parks, but I say if they are renewable, make do with the 91% you have already stripped.

    25. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Ultracrepidarian · · Score: 1

      It looks like you've read Rifkin. Our capitalism is based on unlimited growth which worked well while we still had a frontier. It's gone. I can remember when the sea was going to feed us. Now we are told to eat fish, but not too much because of the danger of mercury.

    26. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Ultracrepidarian · · Score: 1

      Not in my area.

    27. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lumber companies do not behave the same way in all parts of the country. In the south, they grow trees on plantations that would otherwise be farmland. In the West, they cut down forests that would never be farmed because they are in mountainous areas and on poor soil.

      If the lumber companies went out of business, it would be a good thing for Western forests, but maybe not for Southern forests. Since there are a lot more environmental activists in the West than the South, you can expect them to be more anxious to promote causes that would help in the West. They're not wrong in their prescriptions, though.

    28. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Please do not confuse tree farms with forests. Tree farms are a monoculture with each individual planted pretty close to the same distance from the next, all at the same time, all the same size, typically on land that was clearcut, stripped of all the slash and preexisting vegetation, and left to regrow only until the trees are the right size for the process to be repeated. And each time the land loses some of its fertility and resources, so the farm takes a bit longer to grow back, with diversity slowly being eroded from the region, and leaving the unnatural stands of genetically closely related individuals vulnerable to disease and insects. The balance of life that exists in a healthy forest is thrown out of whack in a tree farm where the limited ecological niches cause a boom in one species at the expense of diversity in others.

      It sounds like you're surrounded by tree farms. They superficially resemble forests in that they have stands of trees, but that's about where the comparison ends. In the same sense, pastures aren't prairies, even though both have grass. Fish farms aren't wild salmon runs, even though both have fish. In each case there is serious damage to the ecology.

    29. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Darkman,+Walkin+Dude · · Score: 1

      We live with a finite set of resources at the bottom of a massive gravity well isolated by millions of miles of hard vacuum from anything else at all. We are consuming many of those resources at an unsustainable rate. If we don't want to end up like the people of Easter Island, we'd better not take any of it for granted.

      Its a good point, but at the end of the day we are still drowning in resources, and are likely to remain so even if developing countries reach a developed country standard of living. Yes, oil will run out, but it won't drop off a cliff - oil companies have a very good idea of how much is left in remaining fields. It will peter out slowly and other resources will come onstream. Take a good look for example at the European supergrid concept, which postulate most or all of European energy use coming from renewable resources. There is no reason why the US or Africa, China or India could not follow suit in a similar fashion.

      There is already more than enough food to supply the world's population several times over, starvation is a political issue, and as for mineral resources we've barely tapped into the barest skin of the crust. Ultimately we shouldn't have to though, since there are more easily accessible asteroid resources with trillions of tons of whatever minerals we need just floating around out there; by the time we need them, we'll easily be able to reach them.

    30. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Darkman,+Walkin+Dude · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Add to this that as a species we desperately need land for food cultivation. We don't have enough right now, even with advanced farming techniques, to feed everyone.

      This is utter nonsense. There is enough food for everyone, people in developing countries are starving because their dictators are diverting that food to fuel their petty armies.

    31. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by value_added · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I live in an area surrounded by forests that are planted and cleared for use by lumber companies and paper mills. We fear the closing of lumber companies because it will mean our forests will start shrinking... The really sad part about it, is the huge number of enviro-nutbags that want lumber companies out of business in a completely backwards effort to "save the forests."

      I'd suggest every time you feel an urge to assert an absolute of some sort, you take a few seconds and reconsider.

      The "forests" your favourite lumber company has planted (so full of form and colour from afar), is a forest only in the loosest definition of one. I'd suggest "a collection of trees". The enviro-nutbags have a point, one that's easily recognised by someone who's been in a forest, or otherwise knows what the term "monoculture" means and what its implications are.

    32. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by mu22le · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Comparing timber to oil is not a valid analogy because timber is a renewable resource.

      To be pedantic, petroleum *is* a renewable resource, only on a time-scale much larger than the human life span :)

    33. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      So you can build your crappy "rustic looking" furniture and moth-proof closets. Also shingles. And some other fashionable wood products.

      They're not chopping down "old growth" to make paper.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    34. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by EvilAlphonso · · Score: 1

      Old growth trees are still cut because they are actually of far better quality for woodworking and are therefore worth more money. Fast grown wood has many problems: softer, coarser grain and less stable.

    35. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry mate, Diamond's version of Easter Island is probably wrong. Read the wikipedia article. His books are also extremely boring, in my humble opinion.

    36. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by cptdondo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I guess I'm one of those "nutbags" who hikes regularly through some of those replanted forests. There's a lot of difference between a healthy forest composed of a variety of trees, and a monoculture stand of genetically selected fast growing softwoods.

      One supports a variety of life and is a pleasant experience with animals and the sound of birds; the other is a wasteland with mostly insects to keep you company.

      Taking out a large sitka spruce that may be 600 years old and replanting three seedlings is not an equivalence.

      If our forests are "growing" why is the timber industry pushing to get at the few remaining stands of old growth forest? Just harvest the three trees you planted last harvest season. After all, that's 3 times the trees you will find in the old growth forest.

    37. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait, surely there's some kind of Law of Conservation of Food that kicks in here...

      Does a child soldier forced into an army *really* eat that much more than a child playing in the street?

    38. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To be pedantic yet also correct, renewable means replaceable by new growth to the extent of being inexhaustible; we cannot grow new petroleum prior to using up current petroleum, therefore it is not renewable, but rather depletable (because our use of petroleum is not required to outpace growth, its just very likely to, especially if we keep dumping it into the ocean).

      In fact, the very definition of non-renewable most often cites petroleum as the shining example.

    39. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by ErikZ · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It would be great if it were that honest.

      Some dictators starve their populace on purpose to receive foreign aid.

      --
      Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
    40. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by plurgid · · Score: 1

      Damn straight there's a difference.
      I too grew up in paper company territory. You could always tell when you'd wandered into a replanted "forrest" ... the trees are planted on a grid. It's quite eerie at first, before you realize how it happened that all the trees line up.

    41. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by careysub · · Score: 1

      Forests in the US have been increasing for almost the past 60 years. More wood is grown than harvested by a ratio of 3:1, and significant acreage has been returned to forests, in part because more responsible timber farms have been created over the decades. We may have at one time reached peak wood, but usage and growth patterns changed, and that is no longer the case.

      Other nations may have problems with their forests, but the US is not one that does.

      A better researched and written article would have made the parallel between peak wood and peak oil more explicit and exact. Peak wood hit all of the industrializing nations of the West during the 18th or 19th century due to its consumption for fuel. The areas close to the iron works and major cities in France and Britain were stripped bare of trees by 1750 or so. Coal, and then oil, replaced wood because energy demand could not be satisfied by wood. This is not only still true today, it is far more true now than ever. Tree harvesting today is not for fuel except in poor countries which cannot afford oil-based fuels and are now experiencing the same deforestation-for-fuel calamity. Bio-energy to replace oil cannot be based on burning trees (for the most part) because their energy productivity per acre is too low.

      In the 19th century the more densely settled East of the United States lost half of its forests from this cause. Fortunately the U.S. retained vast forests in the West where it was much less densely settled. http://forestry.about.com/library/bl_us_forest_acre_trend.htm .

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    42. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by netsavior · · Score: 1

      1 single McDonalds franchise throws away more food calories each day than many towns need. And that is not counting the food they serve, much of which gets thrown away.

      Calories are calories, but not all of them are consumed

    43. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by HeckRuler · · Score: 1

      Aye, as a midwestener, let me stress his point.

      The vast majority of the food grown in Iowa is feed corn. Rather then let our cows eat grass, we feed them corn, because it makes them fatter and tastier. We have so much food we feed our food food. This makes economical sense, as beef is worth a lot more per pound then corn, but if there was anything like a famine going down, we could shift to sweet corn and let the cows eat grass/hay/brains. Remember, the biggest threat to USA farmers and the food supply is there being too much food on the market, the price bottoming out, and all the farmers go broke. So then next year no one plants, and then we all starve. Oh alright, then we call have to pay more then $0.30 for a weeks worth of bread.

    44. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is plenty of business in sustainable forestry. There are even exchange traded funds to track them eg WOOD.L

    45. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by cekander · · Score: 1

      Different indeed, but it's not either or. We need both. There's something to be said for growing forests to sustain our wood needs while leaving the mature forest ecosystems alone. Both have their place, and are complementary.

      To draw a parallel, while we cannot plant oil, we can use other complementary renewables. Just like we fought for the awareness that brought about these monoculture forests, we are in a fight for the awareness to bring about more renewables. It's really the same fight.

      Of importance, is the fact that people never really stopped using timber. And although we use less for the same size house (early houses were predominantly all wood), more is being used than ever before. And I'll wager the same applies to energy needs. Sure our gadgets will use less energy and become more efficient, but overall we will use MORE energy. It's a pipe-dream to think that well stop by our own good-will to save the planet.

    46. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did you read the OP's post or just the title? They mentioned that.

    47. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Dragoness+Eclectic · · Score: 1

      Because pulpwood for paper-making and hardwood for structural timbers and cabinetry are two different animals. Er, plants. Pulpwood is fast-growing, soft woods like slash pine or cottonwood, and can be easily farmed--and it is. The major paper companies own huge tracts of land in the Deep South that are pine farms. Paper is a renewable resource; it's the sustainable choice of "paper or plastic?"

      Quality hardwoods take much longer to grow. Even water oak, which is a mediocre hardwood, takes 30 years to grow a decent tree. That's why were still cutting the original reserve of old-growth timber nature laid up for us.

      --
      ---dragoness
    48. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      it is only renewable if it is used in such a manor.

      You're right, it takes a lot of timber to build one of those babies!

      Of course, it matters what manner you use the timber; it's a renewable fuel if you burn it for heat or use it in a stirling engine (you could run an electric generator with a wood burning stirling engine), it's good for building manors and other, smaller dwellings, but if you're just burning forests down for farmland you're not a good steward of the land.

      (Now watch, I'm sure I made an equally stupid mistake; feel free to ridicule me =)

    49. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Tekfactory · · Score: 1

      Some lumber plants down in Georgia are making wood pellets to sell to European Coal plants as "renewable" fuels under cap and trade rules and actually get carbon credits for using them.

      Some economists predict that US timber companies will not bother selling these pellets to Europe when US cap and trade rules go into effect.

      As to you and the poster below this talking about forests vs tree farms, we need to do more sustainable harvesting in real forests, and encourage more diversity in tree farms. As old growth forests left completely alone add more CO2 to the air through decomposition, than they take in with new growth, and they unattended they also become a wildfire risk.

      Consequently for the birds and animals habitats, golf courses in Georgia and other drought areas have had to take the lead in water conservation techniques, and as an industry have added more wildlife habitat than other sectors of the economy.

    50. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by ahodgson · · Score: 1

      The biggest threat to US farmers is that eventually some politician might have enough balls to scrap the ridiculous corn subsidies. The reason you feed food to food is because the US government borrows tens of billions of dollars a year to pay farmers to grow corn that no one needs.

    51. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by jafac · · Score: 1

      Actually, the vacuum's not THAT hard. Kind of soft, really. You should come up and try it.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    52. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hahah, read Wikipedia over Jared Diamond? Diamond is too boring for you? Wow, you're really going to hate high school.

    53. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Add to this that as a species we desperately need land for food cultivation. We don't have enough right now, even with advanced farming techniques, to feed everyone.

      Actually, that's not true. The only reason people go hungry is politics.

    54. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      A good example is the American Prarie. At one time Illinois was forest, and the prehistoric natives burned them down. The forests became filled with prarie grassses. There are still lots of trees here, but most of the prarie grasses have gone away, replaced by corn, soybeans, and other modern agricultural species.

      The entire state of Missouri was deforested for timber and firewood in the 18th and 19th centuries, and was replanted by the WPA during the Great Depression.

    55. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Another point I forgot to add is that sometimes, you can't regrow the forest, because the forest prevents erosion. The article mentions this, in a point about Cuba where a forest was burned, and then the soil eroded away, leaving only rock. You can't regrow a forest on rocks, and it takes millenia to regenerate topsoil.

      A good case study in this is the island of Hispaniola, where on one side, the nation of Haiti has cut down all their trees, and the erosion has not only destroyed the soil quality, but the runoff has destroyed all the coral reefs offshore. The place is an economic disaster and people are starving (and were before the recent earthquake struck). On the other side, the Dominican Republic preserved their forests, and as a result, they have a strong tourist economy and people have a decent quality of life, far far better than their neighbors in Haiti. The division is so remarkable you can easily see the countries' border on Google Maps: DR is the green side, Haiti is the brown side.

    56. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by SatanicPuppy · · Score: 1

      Wood was everywhere 100 years ago. They used it for everything, and in quantities that we can hardly imagine. Plywood? Who needs that crap when you have unlimited high quality hardwood boards?

      When it became scarce, people sought alternatives with a level of inventiveness and imagination that is hard to conceive, to the point where we are surrounded every day with wood substitutes, and hardly even notice.

      People use up easy resources, then move on to more complex ones as the complex resources become more economical. It's just supply and demand.

      --
      ad logicam Claiming a proposition is false because it was presented as the conclusion of a fallacious argument.
    57. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by Lunzo · · Score: 1

      Actually Gunns are doing exactly that in Tasmania, Australia. And people think you're some fringe nutjob greenie if you point out the stupidity and waste of it.

    58. Re:Comparing apples and oranges by HeckRuler · · Score: 1

      Right. Surplus production in case of emergency.

      Food is one of those resources that's part of "national security". Cut off the farms we don't need, and if we ever need them we're SOL. It's just throwing money away, but a smidge better then having the military piss it away.
      That's why I'm all for ethanol as it would be an alternative use for farmland so there wouldn't be excess supply and we could eliminate the food subsidies.

  6. Lessons? by ImABanker · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "What lessons from the multiple experiences of Peak Wood can today’s society learn for addressing global peak oil?" - On the surface it would seem that the lesson is that eventually a new resource will come along that made all the worrying about the dwindling resource irrelevant.

    1. Re:Lessons? by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Mod parent up. The fact that we've had predictions of doom in the past that we've survived is actually a fairly good reason for optimism when it comes to challenges of the future.

    2. Re:Lessons? by zwei2stein · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, because every single time our ass is in danger, miracle/breaktrough will happen. Right.

      In related news, Easter Island had quite a lot of success with "new resource will come along that made all the worrying about the dwindling resource irrelevant." strategy.

      --
      -- Technology for the sake of technology is as pathetic as eschewing technology because it's technology.
    3. Re:Lessons? by ImABanker · · Score: 1

      My point is simply that TFA has doomsday scenarios that in older times people speculated would result from a complete loss of fuel (ie wood), and asks us to draw a comparison to oil. For the examples TFA gives (Easter Island is not one of them), all of the worrying came to naught thanks to technological progress. There are many examples of the harm caused by natural resource depletion, but this article fails utterly to mention them. Not saying it always works out, but it sure did for all the examples and fears (loss of fuel) given.

    4. Re:Lessons? by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Name one time when our ass was in danger in the past when we didn't survive :)

      Now name all the times when humans have predicted the end of the world, either by fire, brimstone, flood, hand of god, or environmental disaster.

      Who's got the better batting average? :)

    5. Re:Lessons? by zwei2stein · · Score: 1

      Ah, survival eh? Well, I guess if survival is enough for you, goof for you! What exactly do you consider survival anyway? at least one human left? You are guanrateed that. :)

      I already mentioned Easter Island. Yeah, they did survive.

      When was last time you are food exported from Fertile Crescent? Well, pretty much nothing grows there nowadays. Funny thing, soil. Compeletelly depleted, pretty much worthless and one of poorest areas in world. Those most powerfull contries of world sure survived intact.

      Also, Greenland colony says hi, they has no problem for thousand years and were doing just five 500 yeats ago when they overgrazed what little grass they had. (they died out btw)

      Henderson Island inhabiants actually did not suvive depletion of their reneweble resources.

      Ever heard of Anasazi?

      Wonder how come Mayans evacuated their cities? They were kinda hungry...

      Hint: Haiti is one of poorest countris in world while Dominican Republic prospers. Haiti cut down all forests and let soil erode. Dominican republic didn't.

      You might also be interested in Rwanda Genocide and food production link.

        was not exactly great time either. Five years of broken agriculture were enough to have 50 million death consequence. USSR had similar thing to happen too.

      There is simply levels of "survival" unacceptable. It is not typical doomsday and unlike doomsday stuff it actually happened, we have eough examples in history to know that damaged enviroment impairs food production. Impaired food production leads to ... well ... it is not exactly pretty.

      Yeah, I am agriculture geek. Rarest of kind.

      --
      -- Technology for the sake of technology is as pathetic as eschewing technology because it's technology.
    6. Re:Lessons? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's a pretty big gamble, though. Got anything equivalent to oil in mind?

    7. Re:Lessons? by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      There is [sic] simply levels of "survival" [that are] unacceptable. It is not typical doomsday and unlike doomsday stuff it actually happened, we have eough examples in history to know that damaged enviroment impairs food production.

      The question is humanity, not individual pockets of agriculture or cultures or civilizations. The fact of the matter is that the environment changes, and we adapt. To assert that the world is going to end, en masse, for the vast bulk of humanity is simply unjustified. You might as well claim "my great-great-great-grandpa died! my great-great-grandma died! We're all gonna die, oh noes!". As far as natural selection is concerned, easter island, greenland, henderson island, et al just don't count. They're pruned branches of the evolutionary tree (assuming they didn't migrate away before simply succumbing to starvation).

      Of course, the whole question of food production brings up an interesting twist -> CO2 concentrations greatly increase food crop yields. Should we be using more natural petroleum products to increase food yields to support more humans?

      My personal problem, though, is my firm belief that agriculture was the beginning of the downfall of human health, and I wonder if we could develop a system that could reliably sustain all of humanity on a primarily fat and protein diet, rather than on obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer causing carbohydrates.

  7. Interesting article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Yes, I did read it.

    The parallels to the lust of wood with the lust of oil seem to be fairly well made in the whole ravaging thing.

    But what I found to be the most unfortunate part of oil vs. trees is that in the past we could always go out and explore because the world wasn't completely explored. Nowadays, we know where most? oil reserves are so the old idea of "Well we're running out, let's go find some more!" doesn't work at all.

    Looking at the way we've been treating oil so far, it really seems like people are still stuck in that mindset. Folks just recently seemed to realize that when we're out of oil we're out of oil. And that's probably what hurt us the most in the present day. The article speaks of unforeseen consequences, but we seem to be ignoring the simple, foreseeable consequence of having no oil.

    Well, hope solar, nuclear, and all of that turns out well. Wouldn't want to go back to pre-industrial times due to lack of energy.

    1. Re:Interesting article by Grishnakh · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It doesn't work quite like that. There's lots of oil reserves that haven't been discovered, and also some that have, but are not cost-effective to exploit. As the price of oil increases, those reserves will be exploited. Tar sands are one example of this: they require a lot of energy to process and refine (unlike light sweet crude), so it's not as profitable as better-quality oil.

      Of course, if the price of oil triples, making many of these reserves profitable enough to exploit, that price alone is going to cause other problems, probably causing people to seek out other sources of energy.

      And also, this doesn't take into account the environmental cost, as we're seeing with the BP disaster. And aside from the incalculable environmental cost, the cleanup has a giant cost too, which is going to figure into companies' plans as a giant risk.

    2. Re:Interesting article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's lots of oil reserves that haven't been discovered

      I...what? How do you know this?

      also some that have, but are not cost-effective to exploit.

      Ah, well this one makes sense.

      Also, yes I was ignoring the environmental cost. The article covers that quite well. All I was going into was the idea that in the past people could trick themselves into thinking they had a limitless resource by saying "There will always be more beyond the horizon" so they felt fine using all they had. Nowadays, such a thing is...doable, but a bit harder. Saying there's a lot of oil undiscovered, though, would be part of it, yes. Unless you can prove there's lots of undiscovered oil, which is kind of hard without actually discovering them making them no longer undiscovered oil, you're just giving into wishful thinking.

      And no, past performance is not quite a good indicator here. If we found a trillion gallons of oil this year, that does not mean we'll find another trillion next year. It could just mean we've found it all.

    3. Re:Interesting article by CyprusBlue113 · · Score: 1

      No they won't, because the price doesn't matter at all once it takes more energy to extract than is released. It could be a billion dollars an ounce and it still wouldn't be cost effective.

      --
      a handful of selfish greedy people are no match for millions of selfish, greedy people -u4ya
    4. Re:Interesting article by tempest69 · · Score: 1
      This is kinda a myth.. There is plenty of oil. However it becomes more expensive to retrieve than the energy it can produce. Now many people see that as oil that were not going to exploit, as it isn't a net energy gain anymore.

      When it comes to that point, were still going to find and use oil anyway. It means that we are going to need to use other primary sources of power, but too much infrastructure will still be oil based, so we wont stop just because it's an energy sink. We will just use nuclear power to drill and pump oil to a fleet of a few billion cars as the third world becomes affluent. This isn't a gloat, as the ramifications sadden me, but it is the scenario that keeps playing out in my head. If we cant get moving on a more reasonable source of power, we will have more cars than ever on the roads in 100 years, burning petrol. Gas will be expensive, but how would you live if gas were $11/Gallon or 2.5/liter ? In a city, sure- more time taking the bus. What about living in rural Montana? You're just going to take the cost of living.

      By no means am I saying that we have infinite oil, but I am saying that were going to pump/mine another 10-100x of what we have already extracted; barring cataclysm of course.

      Storm

    5. Re:Interesting article by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      Oil is also used as a basis for many different chemicals, not just for energy.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    6. Re:Interesting article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      You cannot switch from a petroleum based economy to something smarter and renewable overnight. The pain and expense of that transition, if not acted upon preemptively, will be immense as petroleum prices skyrocket and there's not a damned thing you can do about it for 10, 20, 30, or 50 years; the investment in the old sources of energy are just too staggeringly expensive to replace quickly. If you wait until you're feeling pain from the prices, it's too late.

      To be clear, no one expects oil to "run out," rather merely to become so expensive that it ruins the economies that depend on its consumption. In this sense it's much cheaper to tax petroleum consumption heavily to fund and promote alternatives than to try to keep the prices low, even if only developed countries are willing to impose those taxes on themselves, because this will leave the economies that do tax it heavily much better positioned when the inevitable strikes. Unfortunately our economic, political, and social structures don't reward strategies that maximize long-term benefit; we usually choose to operate with a greedy algorithm that optimizes benefits in the short term, even though it may lead to ruin in the long term. (Read about The Tragedy of the Commons for an understanding of just part of the problem.)

      Developing economies have a historic opportunity. Now before they're tightly wedded to petroleum, they could choose to pursue a path that grants them independence from it, but they won't. In the meantime many in the developed world complain that it's unfair to us for the developing nations to set themselves on the same path to long term economic ruin that we would take only half hearted steps to avoid.

      Frankly, I think it's hopeless. There will be lots of suffering and hardship, and then in the future when we find ourselves doing it afresh with some other resource, no one will remember or care how we walked to ruin down the same greedy path of short term profit the last time. And the story will repeat itself, yet again, like it has done so many times throughout history.

      Humanity is depressingly predictable.

    7. Re:Interesting article by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Extracting oil from tar sands IS cleanup....

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    8. Re:Interesting article by Beezlebub33 · · Score: 1

      Frankly, I think it's hopeless. There will be lots of suffering and hardship, and then in the future when we find ourselves doing it afresh with some other resource, no one will remember or care how we walked to ruin down the same greedy path of short term profit the last time. And the story will repeat itself, yet again, like it has done so many times throughout history.

      Humanity is depressingly predictable.

      While I share some of your concerns, I am not as pessimistic as you. Primarily, this is because I think that it largely depends on the speed of the changes involved and the distance to the alternatives to oil-based economies.

      First, the time frame for declining oil stocks, and hence higher prices, to destroy the economy is (I think) on the period of decades, not years. There is a lot of 'play' in the amount of oil that is economically viable to pull out as the price increases. A doubling in the price of oil will vastly increase the size of the available stocks, and provide another decade or two of oil.

      Second, the alternatives are considerably more expensive than oil right now, but if the doubling proposed above occurs, then the alternatives become viable. check out this Wired article about the alternatives and when they become viable. In the U.S., we have access to ridiculous amounts of coal, for example, which can be converted to liquid fuels. It's not as cheap as pumping it out of the ground, but as oil becomes more expensive, it will become economically feasible, and at costs that will not destroy the economy. Alternatives such as concentrating solar, wind, and geothermal are similarly much more expensive than oil, but as the price rises they become viable.

      The time-frame involved in converting from oil-based to the alternatives is, again, on the order of decades. So, the whole thing works in terms of transitioning from one form of energy to another when it becomes necessary and will (I hope!) not cause serious shocks to the economy.

      Frankly, I am far more concerned about the effect on the environment and climate change due to fossil fuel based economies, and the fact that we can transition from oil to coal / shale / tar sands means that we are still screwed. But, it won't be because of the price of energy. And the U.S. is screwed economically because we spend too much, don't save enough, and don't tax enough. But, again, it won't be because of the price of energy.

      --
      The more people I meet, the better I like my dog.
    9. Re:Interesting article by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      What are you talking about? Tar sands and other sources do not require more energy to extract than is produced in usable petroleum products, not even close. The only problem with them (aside from any environmental ones) is that they require more energy and money to extract and refine than other sources of oil, so they're not as profitable. But as the more convenient/profitable sources of oil dry up, and as prices rise, it becomes worthwhile to extract these not-as-good sources.

    10. Re:Interesting article by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I should also add, you seem to have confused oil with nuclear fusion. That's the place where more energy has to be put in than can be gotten out (at the moment).

    11. Re:Interesting article by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      There's lots of oil reserves that haven't been discovered

      I...what? How do you know this?

      Don't be a pedant. Ask any geologist; there's likely lots of deposits that haven't been found yet, in places like the Arctic Ocean, in very deep waters, in northern Canada, etc. Most of these places haven't been explored yet because it's just too much trouble, or the technology doesn't exist. The main reason we have this current disaster in the GOM is because they were drilling in deep water, which is relatively new. Look at all the other oil rigs in the Gulf; they're near the shore. There's a reason there aren't any oil rigs in the middle of the Caribbean: it's too deep and too far away (remember, they have to transport people and supplies there by helicopters, which have a limited range, perhaps 3-400 nautical miles). Who knows what kind of deposits exist in other deep-water locations. The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans cover most of the planet; who knows what lies underneath? It's pretty silly to assume that we've already discovered everything that exists, when we haven't searched most of the planet yet.

      (Of course, I'm not saying it's a good idea to drill in the middle of the Atlantic; we obviously can't even handle a well 1 mile underwater in the Caribbean.)

      Most likely, there's all kinds of oil underground that we haven't found, or simply can't get to right now. But it doesn't matter; all that matters is what we CAN get to feasibly and economically, and the environmental effects of doing so. Giant oil deposits under the Pacific are useless and irrelevant if we can't safely extract them.

    12. Re:Interesting article by jbengt · · Score: 1

      The problem is not that we're going to immediately run out of oil when we reach peak oil. Peak oil is defined as the point at which we start pumping oil out of the ground faster than we're finding new reserves. We may have passed that point recently, but it is a poorly defined point, since rising prices increases the reserves that are "proven" (to be economically viable) while at the same time stimulating both production and exploration. At peak oil we'd still have plenty of time to start switching to more renewable sources of energy, but the price of oil is going to be wildly unstable and generally rising.

    13. Re:Interesting article by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Don't forget, other forms of energy are slowly becoming more efficient. The main problem with solar has been its inefficiency. However, newer technology has been improving its efficiency, so you can get more watts per dollar of solar equipment. It may not be too long before it reaches the point where it's very economical to use it for buildings: lots of commercial buildings have huge, flat rooftops that do nothing, and would be great locations for solar panels to generate some or all of their own power. When you think about how much rooftop space is available in a whole city (especially a typical American city full of single-story strip malls), it's staggering. Even better, environmentalists would never complain about this, unlike the idea of covering huge swaths of the desert with solar panels, plus the distribution losses would be nil as most of the power would be consumed on-site.

      If electric cars become viable (which seriously would only require one large advance in battery technology), this would completely change the economics of oil, as electric cars would use a small fraction of the power of gas-driven cars, and the power can be generated by any land-based source--oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, solar, etc.

  8. Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by dwarmstr · · Score: 2, Informative

    Please stop using "Peak" when referring to non-oil resources. Wood is renewable. The production of wood can be sustained, or can be engineered to increase over time, depending on management resource. You can't do that with a finite resource like oil. And don't use the term for mineral resources either. You can almost always find another deposit, with a slightly lesser yield than the one you just mined. That continues until you are mining the ocean for elements. It's a matter of how economic the resource is to mine. Oil is none of that. You can't find 0.5ppm oil in some soil somewhere like you can with gold or uranium or neodymium or whatever fearmongering element you wish to be afraid about.

    1. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      You can't find 0.5ppm oil in some soil somewhere like you can with gold or uranium or neodymium or whatever fearmongering element you wish to be afraid about.

      Clearly you don't live along the gulf coast.

    2. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Your point sounds more plausible than it is: Biological resources(wood, fish, etc.) are in principle renewable. That is, there exists one or more courses of actions that allows a steady yield in the very long term, or even increased yields. However, in practice, if a human population cannot adhere to one of those courses of action, they will deplete the biological resource(sometimes just to the point where it is no longer economically relevant, sometimes to the point where the remaining population is no longer self-sustaining, and becomes permanently extinct). In fisheries management, for instance, it is a simple point of fact that we have hit, and passed, "peak" yield for dozens of wild species. Same goes for really nice big chunks of hardwood. We have plenty of structural steel, and crappy pulp-pine; but anything that took 200 years to grow is getting thin on the ground.

      Since, (barring extinct species with no DNA on file), one can always, at least in theory, restore a population back to its old levels, or above, and exceed the "peak", we can refer to it as a "local maximum" if you wish.

      As for oil, it is actually pretty similar to other minerals. In many respects actually more convenient. Oil is, basically, a very convenient source of energy, and hydrocarbons in chemically convenient configurations. The entire planet is absolutely covered with at least one, often both, of those, just in less economic forms. Solar, wind, tidal, plants, worms, poor people, etc. The problem isn't that we are going to run out of energy, or run out of hydrocarbons; but that we will run out of convenient energy and hydrocarbons. This is pretty much exactly the same game as other minerals, where the problem isn't running out; but having applications that used to be viable being priced out.

      "Scarcity" rarely means that there is literally no more of something. It just means that some people can't afford it. More scarce means that more people can't afford it. That's the problem. Supply isn't a binary thing "oil exists = all is well" or "neodymium has disappeared = apocalypse". Supply is a matter of degree. If the cost of the cheapest watt goes from X to X+1, the scope of activity that you can afford just shrank. If the cost of a gram of the element you need goes from Y to Y+1, the same.(worse, since most flavors of mineral extraction require energy, when the cheapest watt goes from X to X+1, the cost of every mineral will increase).

    3. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Except that peak refers to production, not reserves. Yes, trees continually replenish themselves (as some argue oil does). However, the cheap trees are gone, and (like fish stocks) the cost of increasing production is extremely high. The fewer trees there are, the less rapidly you can grow more to increase production.

      "Peak" is an entirely appropriate term to apply to oil production, timber production, fish production, whale oil production, coal production, natural gas production, and any number of other natural resources that are being harvested at faster than their replenishment rate (at a viable price).

      Just because some morons say that there's no such thing as peak oil because there's plenty of oil left sitting around in fields impossible to exploit doesn't mean that we should all change our terminology.

    4. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Grishnakh · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No, it's exactly the same, at least the comparison of mineral and oil deposits. There's lots of oil deposits that are too costly to exploit at the moment, but will become profitable as oil prices rise. It's the same with metals mining, where it's starting to become profitable to mine the ocean floor. There's all kinds of resources that aren't exploited because they're too costly.

      Wood really is the same; sure, you can regrow it, but it takes a LOT of time to do so, and it takes investment. Forests don't just grow by themselves; it takes millenia without any disturbances for a few trees to reproduce into a forest. To regrow a whole forest in a generation or two requires a fair amount of work by humans (cultivating seedlings, and planting them) which costs money. It also takes up land that can be used for other things, like agriculture. So if you overharvest you run out of wood until a new forest grows 30 years later.

      And yes, you can find oil in soil. It's called tar sands and oil shale.

    5. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by starfishsystems · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Nonsense. You can find oil almost anywhere. It's a byproduct of biomass. You probably have at least a litre of it in your kitchen in one form or another. So the argument that "peak" is a term to be reserved for non-renewable resources means that it should not be applied to oil either.

      In fact, the notion of peak production has to do with sustainability: that is, the relative rates of production and consumption. Resource exhaustion is another topic entirely.

      --
      Parity: What to do when the weekend comes.
    6. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by dwarmstr · · Score: 2, Funny

      I would be happy with your suggestion of using the term "local maximum" instead of "peak". Biological resources are renewable. Oil is not, and once you've used the resource, it's gone. You can't recycle burned petroleum like many metals. You can't regrow it like a southern pine plantation.

    7. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by ThrowAwaySociety · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So, you're saying we're going to brick the planet?

    8. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by dwarmstr · · Score: 2, Informative

      Oil in Peak oil refers to petroleum. I don't have a liter of petroleum in my kitchen.

    9. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by CyprusBlue113 · · Score: 1

      No, because again, price is irrelevant when it takes X or more units of Y to extract X units of Y from something.

      --
      a handful of selfish greedy people are no match for millions of selfish, greedy people -u4ya
    10. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Hadlock · · Score: 1

      It's worth pointing out that there's something like twice as many trees today in North America as there was at the beginning of last century, and at that time we were doing our damnedest to cut all of them down ASAP. Conservation and planting timber as a crop didn't really take hold until the 1930's.
       
      There are a couple spots in Washington State where they clearcut a particularly steep chunk of a hill that are now bare rock. They're better about doing that sort of things these days. Those areas might not grow back quickly on an island, but within 100 years in WA state I'm sure they will. If it weren't for the visitor's center you'd never know Mt St Helens had blown it's top in 1980 today, or hell even in 1995 when I visited it. Ecosystems bounce back if you don't pave over them.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    11. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      That's why the concept of "peak" as opposed to "oops, we're out."

      Oil is very much like the minerals you talk about - as the price goes up we find more oil that is worth extracting. The oil sands of Canada and Venezuela are now worth mining and there is more than three times as much oil there as there is in all the world's known reserves of liquid oil combined. We haven't even gotten to 1/6 of the proven oil reserves on the planet yet, never mind getting close to exhausting them.

      The point of peak oil or peak anything else is that as you use up the easy to get reserves it gets harder and harder to produce. At some point you're producing as fast as you can and, as production gets harder and harder, your production drops off from there. The concept is applicable, at least in principle, to pretty much any resource. Once you've used up the forests and have to start planting your own, production is more difficult. Once you've used up all the iron ore sitting on the surface you have to start digging, etc.

    12. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by oiron · · Score: 1

      If you have any vegetable oil, it can substitute Diesel fuel...

    13. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      It's worth pointing out that there's something like twice as many trees today in North America as there was at the beginning of last century, and at that time we were doing our damnedest to cut all of them down ASAP. Conservation and planting timber as a crop didn't really take hold until the 1930's.

      Twice as many trees does not equal twice as much forest, though. A forest is a complete bioregion with activity above, below, and on the surface. Birds, understory, mycelium... A collection of crappy, spindly trees intended to be cut down in big chunks repeatedly is not a forest.

      There are a couple spots in Washington State where they clearcut a particularly steep chunk of a hill that are now bare rock. They're better about doing that sort of things these days.

      Yes, much better: most of the clear-cutting now occurs in BLM land, where almost nobody goes, and where nobody cares because it's not in anyone's back yard.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    14. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Note, however, that necessity is the mother of invention. If people can't get cheap oil anymore they'll find a way to replace the need for oil with things that are cheaper than oil. We're doing it now. Electric cars are making a break because oil is getting more expensive than batteries and electricity. Large ships are experimenting with huge kites to reduce the amount of fuel they need to burn. I don't know anyone who burns oil for heat anymore, most people use natural gas since it's cheaper and more convenient. As the price of oil goes up, people will figure out how to replace it.

    15. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by HeckRuler · · Score: 1

      ah yes, the ol' "They burn gasoline to produce gasoline, so it's silly" argument.
      But technically you're right. If it takes a gallon of gas to make a half-gallon of gas, then the system is broke. But that scenario is nowhere near correct in explaining the process of extracting oil from tar sands. It's more expensive, but it doesn't consume more oil then it makes. The expense is paid into resources that are something other then oil. Like electricity, or man-hours, or fighting off grizzlies.
      And even if the truck of gasoline had to burn 3/4th of it's payload to get it to timbuktu, if they'll pay enough for the product in target location, then it makes economical sense to get it there.

    16. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by GargamelSpaceman · · Score: 1

      There's lots of oil deposits that are too costly to exploit at the moment, but will become profitable as oil prices rise.

      There is debate as to whether prices for oil will actually rise as much as one might first expect. When the economy tanks, so does the price of oil. Though I think the current economic mess was inevitable even without resource constraints, the high price of oil may have been like a pin to an inflating baloon.

      Another scenario would be if as uses for oil become priced out, PEOPLE become priced out. Why is it that people earn what they earn? Why do they have the standard of living they do? Continuing industrial civilization for fewer people allows industrial civilization to continue nonetheless at a smaller scale. If high energy prices and limited oil make aluminum too costly to use in soda cans and plastic too costly to use in soda bottles ( at their current price ) then rather than stopping all soda bottling, the manufacturers are forced to raise the price even if that means they will be bottling less soda. Less soda IS demanded at the new higher price. Some Soda bottlers lose their jobs. The unemployment depresses wages, yet soda bottling continues and higher priced soda continues to be available at the higher price. Maybe this is slow enough that nobody actually loses their jobs, but nobody gets a raise either to keep up with inflation.

      So more tap water gets drunk and less soda. That seems like a good thing. How long until the price of clean tap water gets out of reach for everyone? The point is that less soda is a small example of the scope of modern convenience shrinking. It will shrink to match the available resources.

      Slowly the comparative advantage the developing world has in terms of labor disappears. Why develop the developing world to use resources that just aren't there?

      Modern technological civilization continues on for an ever decreasing few until renewable energy sources can grow faster than nonrenewable use shrinks ( if renewables can ever feasibly form the basis of a technological society which I think they can ). ( this future world might look much like a solar/wind powered Charles Dickens novel ).

      At some point when we're all slaves of the machine, a mad scientist invents Cybermen and Doctor Who appears to save the day.

      --
      ...
    17. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      If oil prices don't rise, then those resources won't be exploited. But I don't see how oil prices wouldn't rise, along with everything else: inflation is a mostly-inescapable phenomenon. Of course, inflation would cause the cost of extraction to rise too so I guess that would mostly balance out.

      However, I think your analysis is completely missing the effect of improving and new technologies. Cellphones, for instance, have revolutionized communications, particularly in the developing world where they don't have the decades-old investment in landline infrastructure, and they've basically leapfrogged the 1st world nations by deploying cellular everywhere and not wasting any money on landlines.

      New technologies will also change many other more mundane things, like how liquids are bottled, and reducing the cost of such things. It'll also reduce the cost of clean tap water, as it's been doing for decades. Reverse osmosis is a relatively new technology (developed in WWII) that's made it possible to create clean drinking water from many sources where this was infeasible before.

    18. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Exactly, it's all about how much profit you make at the end. No matter what you do, it's going to take energy to produce energy. It's inescapable. Even solar panels require energy: you have to expend energy to create silicon wafers, build fabs, and fabricate the solar cells, and then build inverters, and then transport the equipment to a site and install it. Then, after it's running, some of the power generated must be used to power the inverter electronics. There's no free lunch.

      It's the same with oil extraction; it requires energy, of some type. Frequently, they simply burn the oil to get energy. As long as they get enough money in the end to pay for all the costs and generate a profit, it's worthwhile (and if this is more profit than they get for extracting oil from someplace else that's accessible). If not, then they don't do it, and wait for prices to rise or extraction technologies to improve.

      My understanding about tar sands is that they require more energy to refine because they're a very heavy form of petroleum.

    19. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by jbengt · · Score: 1

      Please stop using "Peak" when referring to non-oil resources. Wood is renewable.

      At the point at which trees are being harvested faster than they're growing back, you've reached "peak wood", regardless of whether it's a renewable resource or not.

    20. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by jbengt · · Score: 1

      In fact, the notion of peak production has to do with sustainability: that is, the relative rates of production and consumption.

      Perhaps pedantically, for oil, what you consider "consumption" can be called production, and discovery of new reserves is, in your terms, the "production". Peak oil is when the increase in proven reserves no longer makes up for the rate of depletion of the reserves.

    21. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by GargamelSpaceman · · Score: 1

      If oil prices don't rise, then those resources won't be exploited

      True. If for instance Mr. Fusion were invented, then there would be no need, however technological civilization is dependent on energy. Barring Mr. Fusion, the price of energy will rise relative to other factors sufficiently to guarantee that extraction takes place, however this might be by the price of everything including energy falling with energy prices falling slower than other prices. I am not saying this will or won't be what happens, just that you can't count on energy prices rising. You probably CAN count on the purchasing power of a unit of energy rising over the long term however, at least until renewables have replaced declining nonrenewables.

      As for cellphones and reverse osmosis, cellphones mean that development is cheaper than it was with landlines, and reverse osmosis converts energy into fresh water. It does not generally imply affordable water in a regime of declining energy.

      --
      ...
    22. Re:Please don't use "peak" with regard to non-oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only after being cleaned and de-watered. And then heated to ~180F (iirc) before it hits your fuel pump. And don't forget the switchover valve for running on diesel until warmed up and to purge out the veg oil before shutting down. Or, you could skip one or more of those things and slowly destroy your motor.

  9. they didn't mention rapa nui (easter island) by circletimessquare · · Score: 1

    which is the best story of what happens when human overpopulate and use up all the resources (civilization collapse is the result)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Easter_Island#Pre-European_society

    According to legends recorded by the missionaries in the 1860s, the island originally had a very clear class system, with an ariki, king, wielding absolute god-like power ever since Hotu Matua had arrived on the island. The most visible element in the culture was production of massive moai that were part of the ancestral worship. With a strictly unified appearance, moai were erected along most of the coastline, indicating a homogeneous culture and centralized governance. In addition to the royal family, the island's habitation consisted of priests, soldiers and commoners. The last king, along with his family, died as a slave in the 1860s in the Peruvian mines.[citation needed] Long before that, the king had become a mere symbolic figure, remaining respected and untouchable, but having nominal authority.

    For unknown reasons, a coup by military leaders called matatoa had brought a new cult based around a previously unexceptional god Make-make. In the cult of the birdman (Rapanui: tangata manu), a competition was established in which every year a representative of each clan, chosen by the leaders, would swim across shark-infested waters to Motu Nui, a nearby islet, to search for the season's first egg laid by a manutara (sooty tern). The first swimmer to return with an egg and successfully climb back up the cliff to Orongo would be named "Birdman of the year" and secure control over distribution of the island's resources for his clan for the year. The tradition was still in existence at the time of first contact by Europeans. It ended in 1867. The militant birdman cult was largely to blame for the island's misery of the late 18th and 19th centuries. Each year's winner and his supporters short-sightedly pillaged the island after the victory. With the island's ecosystem fading, destruction of crops quickly resulted in famine, sickness and death.[citation needed]

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  10. Arguably, the timber examples are even less by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Heartening than they appear. Oil, unless you subscribe to one of the abiotic origins/provided by Jesus to empower the American Way of Life(tm) theories, is in more or less fixed supply. The exact number varies based on the price and the available technology, which dictate exactly how crazy the techniques are that you are willing to use to get at the stuff; but it is more or less fixed. You can't have "sustainable" oil production by making sure only to harvest adult oil and restore any juvenile oil you accidentally catch back to its natural habitat.

    Forests, on the other hand, are a population, not a mineral resource. If you are willing to forgo some short-term profit, you can generate modest returns more or less in perpetuity. If you aren't, you'll find yourself with a fancy new lunar resort. Anyone who destroys a biological resource isn't, as with a mineral resource, simply reaching the inevitable sooner rather than later, they are effectively pawning an annuity for pennies on the dollar.

    With oil, the only real questions are 1). "Will we invest some of the convenient energy and chemicals in finding another source of the same before the first runs out?" and 2."How far will we go, in terms of sacrificing other resources(ie. drilling in the middle of highly productive fisheries or digging up large chunks of canada and boiling it down for tar) in order to secure that one?" There is no question of whether or not we will be "sustainable"; because, for mineral resources, there is no such thing, only a question of how fast you want to dig up the supply you have.

    1. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Eskarel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Oil is not a mineral resource, it is organic not mineral, there is not a finite supply, and it is renewable. A sustainable oil industry is theoretically possible, though of course largely impractical.

      Theoretically new oil is being created all the time and will continue to be created for the rest of eternity. The rub of course is that we've used up the majority of the oil created in the last billion years or so in the last century, so our rate of use is quite a bit faster than the rate of resupply.

    2. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Legalize Hemp and you get huge amounts of hemp oil and plastics from hemp oil.

      Until we legalize Hemp, we are not really being serious.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    3. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oooh, let's boil Canada!

    4. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      I for one actively look forward to the hemp process disasters.

    5. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by khallow · · Score: 2, Informative

      Oil, unless you subscribe to one of the abiotic origins/provided by Jesus to empower the American Way of Life(tm) theories, is in more or less fixed supply.

      Some of the theories are pretty crazy. For example, the Brazilians are under this bizarre mass delusion that they're using around 25% renewable oil in their cars.

    6. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are forgetting something. About 80% of every barrel is for fuel. The other part is use for other things. Plastics/polymers/glues/paints/light weight materials for better cars/etc. So even if by some 'magic' tomorrow we are do not need that energy. Will will still be drilling like crazy as we need that other 20%.

      Given that they must have that other 20% what do you think they would do with the other 80%? If they cant sell it they will just simply burn it. If you do not believe me look up what the oil guys used to do with gasoline in the early 1900's before the car. Or until the mid 70s what they did with the natural gas.

    7. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      WTH?

      HEMP produces massive amounts of oil, on poor soil, fiber for paper, etc. etc.

      If it were not for the failing drug war and the Hearst pulp industries demonization back in the 20's, we would be using hemp today.

      There is no way this was flamebait. It's a legitimate solution to this problem.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    8. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Until we legalize Hemp, we are not really being serious.

      You can use algae for the same thing, and you can grow it on seawater, and adding zero food. Hemp is not like this. It will deplete the soil, given the chance. But you can actually use the waste water and solids from the algae process to reclaim desert. Topsoil-based fuels are entirely wrongheaded.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    9. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Now that is an interesting proposition.
      Got any good links to start at?
      I'd like to know more.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    10. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "highly productive fisheries"? I've got some other bad news for you.

    11. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Well, we've gone into it here before, I don't have the references I want immediately handy. There's some guy who's already pitching saltwater aquaculture for food plants (yeah I was puzzled also) with wastewater dumped into the desert to assist the water table, and he's actually bought up a bunch of land. And of course, the classic reference for biodiesel-from-algae is A Look Back at the U.S. Department of Energy's Aquatic Species Program: Biodiesel from Algae (many download links are available; top PDF-link google result for the title is usually the official one) which broadly covers the many and varied reasons to grow algae in open raceway ponds using seawater.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    12. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Thanks. Reading it now.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    13. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Thanks,

      I dug into this a bit and it is going to be challenging to get straight information.

      The optimistic sources say the oil is $2 a gallon and can be refined for $1 a gallon into fuel and plastics.
      The pessimistic sources (but of them is wikipedia which for all the heat it gets is usually reasonably truthy) say the fuel is about $800/barrel ($20ish a gallon.)

      However, a lot of this is the processing cost and it seems to me that would drop over time.

      Hemp fuel and plastic appears to be less expensive currently with the technology going back as far as Henry Ford.
      It appears to be about $5 a gallon for fuel.

      ---

      Both hemp and algae as solutions run into the underlying problem. If you grow enough of it, both of them ultimately consume resources. If we are doing things for 9 billion people, it is going to be hard on the planet period.

      It seems to me that algae is the better long term solution-- but eventually, the human population is going to lock up all the phosphorus and other trace minerals. The larger the population, the sooner that happens.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    14. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      It seems to me that algae is the better long term solution-- but eventually, the human population is going to lock up all the phosphorus and other trace minerals. The larger the population, the sooner that happens.

      you get phosphorous by composting poop. this produces some of the highest-quality compost possible and all but eliminates the need for sewers. mass "composting" is possible in the form of Advanced Integrated Wastewater Pond Systems (AIWPS) through the use of existing sewer systems, and producing methane and algae.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    15. Re:Arguably, the timber examples are even less by OrangeCatholic · · Score: 1

      >If you are willing to forgo some short-term profit, you can generate modest returns more or less in perpetuity.

      Not quite true. If you are in the middle of a naval war, and your ships are built with 100-year-old timbers, the strength of your navy is directly related to the size of your forest.

      Forestry seems sustainable now. And we've learned to use faster-growing trees for many applications. Once upon a time, a warship made of pine (as opposed to oak) was considered dangerously lightweight.

  11. Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0, Troll

    It's also quite possible that petroleum products do not come from buried organic material, but are created as methane is synthesized deep beneath the earth's surface, and it combines into more complex hydrocarbons as it percolates up. The Russians have been working this theory, very successfully, for decades. "Fossil" fuels may not really be made out of fossils at all.

    1. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 3, Informative

      Or, someone could read about the idea and see it is considered bunk.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

    2. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And it was just a matter of time before one of these clowns emerged with their "non-arganic organic oil".... :(

    3. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      If you're going to call something bunk, try to cite a reputable resource.

    4. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Why is is it that every time there's a weird theory floating around, someone comes up and says "The Russians did it/are using it, so it must be true", without there ever being a shred of evidence for the Russians either having used or done it?

      Is it because it is so far away, or because some people can see it from their houses?

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    5. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oil and natural gas contain helium. If oil and natural gas are just liquified dinosaurs, then where does the helium come from?

    6. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      From alpha decay of radioactive isotopes, same as most helium?

    7. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Q: Is methane organic?

      Q: How is it that various moons in the solar system have methane atmospheres?

      Were there dinosaurs and buried plant life out on the moons of Jupiter long, long ago?

    8. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Methane atmospheres on other moons and planets, and "organic" molecules found in comets and other extra-terrestrial bodies seems to provide us at least some concrete examples of hydrocarbons without the prior presence of life. Asserting that this theory is bunk seems a bit of a stretch.

      I know they've synthesized hydrocarbons using non-organic materials in a laboratory...has anyone ever compressed a dead fish or tree and created petroleum in a lab? I'd be very interested if anyone has a citation for that.

    9. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      How many radioactive isotopes should we find in a dead dinosaur, on average?

    10. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Apparently it was Saturn's moon, Titan, that was observed to have hundreds of times more hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves on earth:

      http://www.esa.int/esaSC/SEMCSUUHJCF_index_0.html

      Strange, considering the dearth of biological life forms there.

    11. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 2, Informative

      Not sure where you got your quote from, but it wasn't from the link you gave, and the entire site doesn't hold a single reference to Yukos. Not completely surprising, because it is the webpage for International Continental Scientific Drilling Program - nothing to do with Yukos. Not to mention that drilling a super-deep well has nothing to do with whether the drill probe found an economically viable field.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    12. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or in the case of the parent, don't cite one at all.

    13. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      How about C14 for a start?

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    14. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Well, even for economically viable fields, the evidence is quite clear that natural petroleum is of abiotic origin:

      http://www.gasresources.net/DisposalBioClaims.htm

      Taking just one example from the line of argument, the discovery of biological remnants in oil deposits is used as an assertion that the oil itself is of biotic origin. But if, in fact, the "unconverted" remnants (be they spores, leaves, bones) are such proof, by what mechanism did they avoid conversion? One would expect that if they were subjected to the same pressures and temperatures, they'd be converted as well.

      The alternative explanation is that they are contaminants, not markers of origin.

      Seriously, can you find me a single laboratory experiment that was able to apply pressure and temperature to a dead animal, and create petroleum?

    15. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      http://www.gasresources.net/DisposalBioClaims.htm

      "C14 results from a high-energy reaction of the nitrogen nucleus, N14, with a high-energy cosmic ray particle."

      How many of those particles should we find, as a percentage, of any given biological mass? 1%? .0001%? Does that account for the quantities of He found accompanying natural petroleum deposits?

    16. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by mOdQuArK! · · Score: 2, Informative

      Look up thermal depolymerisation - changing organic waste into long-chain hydrocarbons can be done using fairly straightforward refinery processes (cycles of controlled changes in pressure & temperature). It's a fairly artificially-accelerated process (since we don't have millions of years to wait for the oil to come out), but it does show how patterns of changes in pressure & temperature can create long-chain hydrocarbons from basic organic waste.

    17. Re: Abiogenic Petroleum by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      "Fossil" fuels may not really be made out of fossils at all.

      Yeah, that's what the dinosaurs want you to think.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    18. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Zinho · · Score: 2, Informative

      How many of those particles should we find, as a percentage, of any given biological mass? 1%? .0001%? Does that account for the quantities of He found accompanying natural petroleum deposits?

      Probably not. There's no need for the oil source to be the same as the Helium source. The most likely source of all the helium in a petroleum deposit is the radioactive material in the rocks in and below the deposit's formation. For example, the amount of Americium found in your smoke detector creates 30,000 alpha particles per second, a kilogram of Uranium ore produces 25,000,000 per second (scroll down a bit to see the activity rates table in the linked reference). Since alpha particles are equivalent to ionized Helium nuclei, ore and mineral deposits that generate alpha particles are basically Helium sources. The Helium migrates upwards until it's trapped by the same formation that prevents the upwards migration of underground hydrocarbons.

      --
      "Space Exploration is not endless circles in low earth orbit." -Buzz Aldrin
    19. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by jo_ham · · Score: 1

      Methane is CH4, so by chemist's definition, it is organic.

      But that word doesn't necessarily mean what you think it means.

    20. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by compro01 · · Score: 1

      has anyone ever compressed a dead fish or tree and created petroleum in a lab? I'd be very interested if anyone has a citation for that.

      Not just in a lab, it's been done on a commercial scale.

      http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb/fsb_archive/2005/02/01/8250633/index.htm

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    21. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Abiotic petroleum is not a good argument for using petroleum, though. Especially if you're a carbon-worrier: if the oil comes from deep within the earth, that means its carbon was never in the biosphere to begin with. It also doesn't bode well for renewability, since it suggests even longer timescales to produce.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    22. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cold War cultural hangover.

    23. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by TheLink · · Score: 1

      For the topic at hand ("Peak Wood"/"Peak Oil") it doesn't really matter if there's actually abiogenic petroleum.

      What matters is how fast that petroleum is created, and how fast we are consuming it. So far the evidence is the rate of consumption is far higher than the rate of production, otherwise the wells won't be running dry, and it wouldn't be harder and harder to find new places to drill.

      --
    24. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Nimey · · Score: 1

      Alpha decay of radioactive isotopes, such as uranium - an alpha particle is identical to a helium-4 nucleus. The helium's trapped in the same sort of impermeable rock that traps oil and natural gas.

      --
      Hail Eris, full of mischief...

      E pluribus sanguinem
    25. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I was trying to make the same point -> comparing timber to oil is a valid analogy when talking about "peaks", because they are both renewable resources with capacity constraints. I think the real question, though, is when will we "peak", and what will that do to civilization. Far out enough, our prospects look pretty good (after all, we survived the wood "peaks" of the past).

      If anything, the "peak" question is a Rorschach test -> pessimists will see it as impending doom because ancient civilizations went through collapses, optimists will see it as hope for the future because humanity survived those collapses.

    26. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Actually, abiotic petroleum relieves a lot of the pressure of the doomsayers simply because of vast scale of natural petroleum compared to the predicted biomass for "fossil" fuel. People thought the 70s, 80s and 90s were going to be "peak" oil, and a lot of people lost their shirts betting on ever increasing petroleum prices. My rough guess is that "peak" scares are ways of increasing petroleum profits.

      Insofar as carbon-worriers, they've got a lot more to learn about a) the benefits of a warm world and b) the negative feedback effects of water vapor.

      I think in the end, natural petroleum gives us a good hundred, maybe two hundred years of cheap energy to get on the ball with nuclear and fusion (and yes, one day we'll even run out of hydrogen, as abundant as it is). I'll be as supportive of "green" tech as the next guy as soon as it becomes commercially viable on its own without government subsidies or anti-competitive taxes placed on its competitors.

    27. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

      Looks like a bit more than simply pressurization -> the analog to buried dead fish and trees seems a bit faint. The steps listed out by CWT:

      1) high temp and pressurized, mixed with water;
      2) lowering of the temp and pressure, flashing off water and minerals;
      3) again high temp and pressurized;
      4) lowering of the temp and pressure, then centrifuge to separate water.

      It seems like if this was the genesis of "fossil" fuels, we'd be able to make some predictions as to what kind of markers we'd see in natural petroleum deposits. Not sure if anyone has really taken a look at that.

      It also notes that this process only breaks down longer molecular chains into smaller ones, which wouldn't explain longer chained natural petroleum, unless you also buy into the fact that mantle zone methane could percolate up and condense into longer chains in an abiotic fashion. Granted, a lot of folk out there don't have a problem with the theory of *some* abiotic oil, they simply assert that it is in scant, non-commercially viable quantities.

      Thank you for the reference, CWT looks like it's doing some really interesting work!

    28. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Exactly -> it's quite possible to have organic molecules with an abiotic origin. Organic != of biotic origin.

    29. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Sounds a lot like the argument abiotic oil theorists make about "biological" markers in natural petroleum -> it's contamination, not part of the genesis of the material.

      My bet is that both abiotic oil and biotic oil are possible, but abiotic oil probably has a greater natural regeneration rate, and a longer timescale upon which it has operated (maybe +1 billion years). In any case, predictions of doom generally trigger my false-apocalypse alarm -> it seems like a common human activity to predict the imminent end of the world, religion or no religion.

    30. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Yeah, someone gave the link to CWT's Thermal Conversion Process in another comment -> very interesting stuff, but it looks like it has some complexity that might not reflect in the deposits of natural petroleum we commonly find.

      That being said, this is probably more an argument about proportion than absolutes -> even the sharpest critics of abiotic oil don't deny that it could happen, they simply assert that it does not happen nearly as often as biotic oil (and vice versa).

    31. Re:Abiogenic Petroleum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Very successfully"? I think not.

      Ah, you mean "working on the theory...." not actually finding real evidence for such kookiness.

  12. Peak Oil is Peak Wood by istartedi · · Score: 1

    Before oil, there was a lot of clearcutting in the eastern US. A USA awash in oil can afford something like Shenandoah National Park and the Blueridge Parkway, with oil-fueled cars loaded with sightseers. If we don't manage to form a proper energy policy, the forest that we have "saved up" there will start to look like what it was in the 19th century: fuel for locomotives.

    Of course, that probably won't happen until we blast the top off every mountain in West Virginia to get cola.

    --
    For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
    1. Re:Peak Oil is Peak Wood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Of course, that probably won't happen until we blast the top off
      every mountain in West Virginia to get cola.

      Do we actually need to blast? Couldn't we just tell the locals there's free meth hidden 200 feet underground and let nature take its course?

    2. Re:Peak Oil is Peak Wood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      cola?

  13. Easter Island by starfishsystems · · Score: 1

    Roland Wright speaks eloquently of another tragedy of the commons involving timber. This one took place on Easter Island, and it is a stark reminder to us all of what may come from presuming that our resources are infinite or necessarily renewable.

    Easter Island is barren now. It was once heavily forested. But, as Wright recounts, "The people who felled the last tree could see it was the last, could know with complete certainty that there would never be another. And they felled it anyway."

    http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1285440/posts

    --
    Parity: What to do when the weekend comes.
    1. Re:Easter Island by Beelzebud · · Score: 1

      My god, the comments at that site are amazingly retarded.

    2. Re:Easter Island by chx1975 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      As Jared Diamond says in Collapse that's not true! There were smaller and smaller trees re-growing and the island being covered by great trees were just a distant memory. It did not happen like 'dense forest -- all big trees felled - - barren' but rather gradually and slowly.

  14. Stockmarket by sourcerror · · Score: 1

    I hope the stockmarket will price oil properly when we reach the peak. I mean, there's too much money in stake for not doing so. When we'll have higher than 100$/barrel oil for an extended period without hope for it to become cheaper, that will enable green technologies.

    1. Re:Stockmarket by gothzilla · · Score: 1, Insightful

      It won't enable green tech. It will just make expensive sources of energy relatively cheap. It will also devastate the poor when it happens too. We have to use whatever energy is the cheapest and most abundant. Not doing so is a death sentence to people who don't make that much money.

      Green tech will take off when someone figures out a way to create energy that's more plentiful and cheaper than oil, coal, or gas. Until then it's simply not viable. Our current "green" tech can't even survive on it's own without subsidies. It's nothing more than the stuff of fantasies.

      Look around you. I bet you can't find a single thing that was not made with nor shipped with oil. Green tech will never completely replace oil. It's one of the most useful resources we've ever found. It won't be replaced until we invent star trek replicators.

    2. Re:Stockmarket by Black+Gold+Alchemist · · Score: 1

      Oil can be replaced by green tech. First, one could use wind turbines to synthesize oil. Wind turbines are quite cheap, even without subsides - they just produce most electricity when no one is using any. That sounds like a great time to make fuel and plastic. Second, you could do the same thing with nuclear powerplants. Third, one can use arrays of mirrors to heat up trash and produce oil.

      --
      Responsibility is an addiction
      Virtue is a temptation
      Community is a cartel
    3. Re:Stockmarket by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It won't enable green tech. It will just make expensive sources of energy relatively cheap. It will also devastate the poor when it happens too. We have to use whatever energy is the cheapest and most abundant. Not doing so is a death sentence to people who don't make that much money.

      Green tech will take off when someone figures out a way to create energy that's more plentiful and cheaper than oil, coal, or gas. Until then they're simply not viable. Our current "green" tech can't even survive on it's own without subsidies. It's nothing more than the stuff of fantasies.

      Look around you. I bet you can't find a single thing that was not made with nor shipped with oil. Green tech will never completely replace oil. It's one of the most useful resources we've ever found. It won't be replaced until we invent star trek replicators.

      Automobiles will take off whan someone figures out a way to create them that's more plentiful and cheaper than horse-drawn carriages. Until then it's simply not viable. Our current automobiles can't even survive on their own without someone running in front with a flag. They nothing more than the stuff of fantasies.

      Look around you. I bet you can't find a single thing that was not transported by a horse-drawn vehicle. Automobiles will never completely replace horses. They're one of the most useful things we've ever found. It won't be replaced until we invent Mr. Wells' Time Machine.

      Now get off my lawn!

    4. Re:Stockmarket by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As someone who's owned a horse, they are far more work and trouble than a car, and can be more expensive to maintain sometimes. Your analogy fails to make sense.

  15. There have been lots of peaks by d1r3lnd · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Peak Whale Oil, for example. Of course, the rising cost of whale oil led to the development of new technologies and new sources of energy - like kerosene.

    There are many, many, many examples of people pointing out the impossibility of then-present trends continuing. Of course, if trends can't continue, they won't.

    If you want an American patriot as an example instead of Engels (communism! gasp, shock, horror) take a look at Gifford Pinchot. An early leader of the Conservation movement, first Chief of the US Forest Service, quite a guy. Peak timber, peak ore, peak coal - he wrote about 'em all, back in the day.

    While it's well and good to be aware of these things, and the market tends to reward those who make some smart bets on that basis - human beings have always found ways to satisfy their wants. Some are more sustainable than others, but necessity is the mother of invention, and sustainability/entropy is really only a concern when faced with a finite "universe." Technology is the key that gets us out of that box, and if we have to consume resources in order to make new ones available to us, well - such is, has been, and will be life.

    1. Re: There have been lots of peaks by Black+Parrot · · Score: 2, Funny

      Peak Whale Oil, for example.

      Should we be worrying about peak porn?

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    2. Re:There have been lots of peaks by oodaloop · · Score: 1

      Technology is the key that gets us out of that box

      Name one technology that has not created more problems than it solved.

      --
      Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
    3. Re: There have been lots of peaks by d34dluk3 · · Score: 1

      Peak Whale Oil, for example.

      Should we be worrying about peak porn?

      No, it's a renewable resource.

      In fact, slutty chicks per capita, a crucial benchmark of porn creation ability, has increased significantly over the last 20 years.

    4. Re:There have been lots of peaks by babblefrog · · Score: 1

      Pretty much all of them, otherwise we would be poorer than our ancestors. Why would anybody use a technology that actually makes them worse off than they were before?

    5. Re:There have been lots of peaks by oodaloop · · Score: 1

      Really? Agriculture led to mass deforestation, slavery, and alcohol and drugs. Mass production led to even more deforestation and pollution. Some individuals do better while many more suffer from the secondary effects. All these problems of global warming, oil consumption, over-population, pollution, etc are CAUSED by technology. And you think this has made us all better off?

      --
      Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
    6. Re: There have been lots of peaks by JustABlitheringIdiot · · Score: 1

      Should we be worrying about peak porn?

      Not as long as there is still peak wood...

    7. Re:There have been lots of peaks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Get off the computer and kill yourself. It's the only solution.

    8. Re:There have been lots of peaks by d1r3lnd · · Score: 1

      Yes, agriculture can lead to mass deforestation - unless a society industrializes, and thereby reduces the pressures that strip timber from the land for heating and cooking fuel. Again, INDUSTRIALIZATION reduced the economic returns of slavery to the point where it was no longer viable. It is widely suspected that "alcohol and drugs" (the former is also the latter, by the way) existed in pre-agricultural times, although there is obviously no written history to support this claim (WRITING being another one of those wacky technological benefits). Even so, I'd say your claim that alcohol and drugs are unmitigated evils is debatable, at the very least.

      Climate change / ecological damage happened even prior to the development of modern economies; you won't find giant ground sloths or mastodons roaming North America - they were hunted to extinction thousands of years before Europe discovered the New World.

      Over-population is a claim about the carrying-capacity of the world, and technology raises the carrying capacity, so again, I really must disagree.

      Hunter gatherer / subsistence farmer societies are not without impact. And no, they were for damn sure not better off than we are now. It's nice that you have the leisure time to daydream about the noble savage, but understand that had you been born at that level of technology, you'd more likely than not be dead several times over before reaching your current age, let alone doing so with your level of nutrition and relative dearth of crippling childhood diseases.

      Yes, technology HAS made us better off. Indeed, I will go further than that - it is the most powerful, if not ONLY, way of doing so.

    9. Re:There have been lots of peaks by oodaloop · · Score: 1

      Yes, agriculture can lead to mass deforestation - unless a society industrializes, and thereby reduces the pressures that strip timber from the land for heating and cooking fuel.

      And instead strips timber from the land for making houses, lawn furniture, patios, paper products, and all the other mass produced items we consume on a daily basis.

      Climate change / ecological damage happened even prior to the development of modern economies; you won't find giant ground sloths or mastodons roaming North America - they were hunted to extinction thousands of years before Europe discovered the New World.

      ...using the technological advancement of bows and arrows to kill, fire to cook, salting to preserve meat, etc. As our technological achievements, however meager by modern standards, grew, so did our destruction of the environment.

      Over-population is a claim about the carrying-capacity of the world, and technology raises the carrying capacity

      And greatly increased our ability to consume, pollute, and destroy. My only point is that technology is not the purely benevolent savior some make it out to be, and that it holds the ability to be our undoing.

      Hunter gatherer / subsistence farmer societies are not without impact. And no, they were for damn sure not better off than we are now.

      No, but the world was much better off. We've bettered our individual human lives at the expense of the planet and future generations. Hooray for televisions, running water, and air conditioning! Too bad there won't be any food for my grandkids.

      --
      Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
  16. Cut the "it is renewable" crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Timber is only reneweable in a generic sense. Firstly as many example abund, if you destroy an ecological strata or whole system, it is hard to recover or never recover. So by cutting a VARIETY of wood for timber, and replacing by a monoculture of some timber easy usable by the industry. I won't again cite all the danger of monoculture and the destruction of a whole strata ecological stratta. But fact is that you lost all that diverse sort of wood and plant and replaced by a single one. OK , you say, but there is still some wood stuff available. That is misisng the point that in some part of the world, even that is LOST. Topsoil get washed because there is no suffisent rooting to hold it on, top soil get poorer, forest are destroyed to make place for other culture, and in some place water/climate is getting scarce/harsh enough that that renwable wood isn't renewed. Sure it ain't always the case, but wood is only renweable if top soil are taken care of, and only if you dismiss the diversity of wood essence as being essential. So only with a very short sighted view on the problem.

    1. Re:Cut the "it is renewable" crap by timmarhy · · Score: 1

      they have been doing timber farms for 50 years or more now. you don't know what your talking about

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    2. Re:Cut the "it is renewable" crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      they have been doing timber farms for 50 years or more now. you don't know what your talking about

      Pine? Sure, you can argue that they're substitutable goods, but frankly I'd rather have a fiberboard table with plastic veneer from ikea than a shitty pine table.

      Maybe in 20 more years we can start to talk about the people who made investments in Mahogany farms, but given modern America's fascination with next quarter's report I doubt more than a handful of people managed to secure investments that would require nearly a century to start producing returns.

  17. You're right. It's the floor. by weston · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Comparing timber to oil is not a valid analogy because timber is a renewable resource.

    True. The question is -- if we tend not to do well with even renewable resources, how well are we likely to do with exhaustibles... at least, without some greater discipline than we've got now?

    1. Re:You're right. It's the floor. by 2obvious4u · · Score: 1

      Oil is a renewable resource, just not in your lifetime.

  18. ahahahahahaha by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    *gasp*
    ahahahahahaha...
    haha..
    *sigh*

    It's way too late for that. The "stockmarket" now consists primarily of middle-class idiots gambling with their retirement savings, backed by consumer protection agencies and politicians ready to go on TV and cry about "speculation" and "obscene profits" every time another crotchling pops out that can't get cheap loans to buy a gas-guzzling car and all sorts of foreign plastic crap and a house it can't afford and a college education it will barely comprehend and healthcare to maintain it's fat oreo-stuffing ass and a pension funded by debts passed onto whatever crotchlings it produces during it's sad, miserable, subsidized role in the neverending ponzi scheme of fraudulent stupidity that is American capitalism.

    You'd be better off playing russian roulette with a Deringer than betting on the stock market to price anything properly in such a retarded environment.

  19. One thing that history has taught us is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    that history never teaches us anything and we are doomed to repeat it.

  20. Many societies have failed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    human beings have always found ways to satisfy their wants

    This suffers from selection bias. Many people failed to satisfy their needs. They died. History is the story of the people who survived. It would be more correct to say that some human beings have always found ways to satisfy their needs. The ability of modern society to adapt for a few hundred years may not be indicative of much. There have been plenty of examples of societies that collapsed. Jared Diamond's book provides examples both ancient and modern.

    As to technology, in his book The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter argues that it too suffers from diminishing marginal returns:

    It is not that R&D cannot potentially solve the problems of industrialism. The difficulty is that to do so will require an increasing share of GNP. The principle of infinite substitutability depends on energy and technology. With diminishing returns to investment in scientific research, how can economic growth be sustained? The answer is that to sustain growth resources will have to be allocated from other sectors of the economy into science and engineering. The result will likely be at least a temporary decline in the standard of living . . .

    Technological innovation and increasing productivity can forestall declining marginal returns only so long. A new energy subsidy will at some point be essential.

    Oil is energy condensed from millions of years of sunshine into a convenient storage format. Can we find a new energy subsidy comparable to it? I don't know. Even the best motivations and technology are no guarantee that our particular society can avoid wrenching change or collapse.

    Geof (anon as I spent mod points)

    1. Re:Many societies have failed by khallow · · Score: 1
      So why should I care what Joseph Tainter thinks?

      With diminishing returns to investment in scientific research

      Hasn't happened yet and that appears to be a fundamental precept of his argument. The thing people need to remember here is that there are other forces at work diminishing the return on investment for science. For example, the massive use of government funds worldwide, which by definition, allocates funds for political reasons (which often have nothing to do with practical or scientific goals).

  21. Have to laugh (bitterly) by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Any time these conversations come up, the only real solution (reducing the population to about 2 billion) is ignored by everyone.

    Which means, we really are not going to solve the problem before it blows up in our face.

    Reduce the population to 2 billion and the earth becomes verdant and rich within 50 years.

    It's possible to peacefully reduce the population to 3 billion in 50 years. Just stop saving people who have more than 1 child per 2 parents and stop providing tax incentives for second children.

    But it's not going to happen. We are going to 9 and probably 11 billion people with all the hell that results from that.
    By my current math, it happens a little while after I die.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    1. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Reduce the population to 2 billion and the earth becomes verdant and rich within 50 years.

      Probably not, it would just mean that the nations that didn't control their population would control the nations that did.

    2. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by metacell · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The main problem is not the growing population, but rather the growing demands of a small segment of the population.

    3. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by giorgist · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Amm ... a society with one child per family may not be sustainable. You are making the same mistake everybody that thinks that there is an obvious solution.
      Imagine in a few generations a single great grandchild will have to support his parents and their parents and considering life expectancy ... maybe some of his great grand parents.

      That would be 6-10 people plus him/her self.

      To add to that, it is western society that desperately needs more youth. Third world countries are having population problems.

      Finally the earth has ample resources to go on if only we where fair and efficient. Australia can support 200 million on the coast alone. 2 billion if you green the desert. You can green the deset if you have energy. You can get clean energy from nuclear fuel. This at the cost of the natural environment, but then the aboriginees changed that ahead of us as well.

      The above is oversimplifying it, but the solution will find us do not worry. We will probably damadge the environment before we do so ... but what's another expensive lesson between enemies (I mean cohabitants of this planet) ?

      PS: I may be guilty of what I accuse you ...

    4. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is that really what you see happening? Impoverished hordes from overpopulated nations overpowering and controlling the sparsely-populated, resource-rich countries? From everything you know of technology and income disparity and military history, you think that's a realistic outcome?

    5. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by timmarhy · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      i like your idea of 2 billion people - you jump off a cliff to start us off ok? after all you say it's the only solution, therefore you must be willing to make the sacrifice.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    6. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Any time these conversations come up, the only real solution (reducing the population to about 2 billion) is ignored by everyone.

      Which means, we really are not going to solve the problem before it blows up in our face.

      Reduce the population to 2 billion and the earth becomes verdant and rich within 50 years.

      It's possible to peacefully reduce the population to 3 billion in 50 years. Just stop saving people who have more than 1 child per 2 parents and stop providing tax incentives for second children.

      But it's not going to happen. We are going to 9 and probably 11 billion people with all the hell that results from that.
      By my current math, it happens a little while after I die.

      while i agree that we are too many, the only way to reduce world population to 2-3 biliions in 50 years is nukes; We're almost 7 billions, not almost 4...
      plus, china population is rising, and they already do what you proposed.

      and this makes me laugh: your "peaceful" solution is: "stop saving people" ? do you realize what would happen if hospitals refuse to cure parents with more than 1 child?

      i've always heard people thinking they're good politicians, good economists... but you are the top, man!

    7. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Probably not, it would just mean that the nations that didn't control their population would control the nations that did.

      Exactly. Just like Africa is totally dominating the world economy right now.

      Population growth as a strategy for dominance worked a lot better some centuries ago. Knowledge, weapons, machinery and resources is much more important.

    8. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Ultracrepidarian · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Odds are pretty good that a major pandemic will prove to be the solution. I'm convinced that the collective intelligence of the viral and bacterial comunnities exceeds that of our species.

    9. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by magloca · · Score: 1

      while i agree that we are too many, the only way to reduce world population to 2-3 biliions in 50 years is nukes; We're almost 7 billions, not almost 4...

      Well... I agree that the only reasonable conclusion is that there are just too fucking many of us. If we don't bring the population down ourselves, somehow (as, of course, we won't), the system will self-regulate and do it for us, somehow (most likely in some way we won't much care for, like a cataclysmic natural disaster or a global pandemic).

      An interesting question is how we could possibly bring the population down in a reasonably palatable way. Massive emigration to colonies in space? We just don't have the technology for that. Birth control? As someone else said, this would pretty soon cause enormous social problems with growing numbers of elderly relying on shrinking numbers of younger people for support (a very mild version of this problem can already be seen in countries like Japan). Something else? If so, what?

    10. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Reduce the population to 2 billion and the earth becomes verdant and rich within 50 years. It's possible to peacefully reduce the population to 3 billion in 50 years.

      Yes, people will die, in the next 50 years. Billions of them. And it's not going to be pretty; as you point out, we'll still have a billion too many people 50 years from now if we go the peaceful way. Read up on survival techniques- you'll be needing them.

    11. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Impeesa · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Odds are pretty good that a major pandemic will prove to be the solution. I'm convinced that the collective intelligence of the viral and bacterial comunnities exceeds that of our species.

      Actually, if that happened, they'd have proved themselves equal, at best. Shortly after, the viral and bacterial communities would be having discussions on "peak human."

    12. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Darkman,+Walkin+Dude · · Score: 1

      Any time these conversations come up, the only real solution (reducing the population to about 2 billion) is ignored by everyone.

      When you figure out why, you'll be getting somewhere...

    13. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're the one who should have more than 1 child. Third world countries are the ones the stop the population growth.

    14. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's possible to peacefully reduce the population to 3 billion in 50 years. Just stop saving people who have more than 1 child per 2 parents and stop providing tax incentives for second children.

      Alternatively, promote gay sex! Us gay guys and gals are saving the planet by not indulging in sexual pollution! You know it makes sense! :-)

    15. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      -1 dumb thinking

      Obviously you don't know the diference between reducing population on the long term by reducing birth thus not killing anyone and reducing population now by killing people.

    16. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Growing population means growing of small segments of it, and in fact, this small segment is not small at all if you count the growth of countries like china and india, and other developing nations.

      Demand grows because population grows.

      All humans want to grow their demands, so population has to shrink to be able to suply those growing demands. The oposite is mantaining population growth but shrinking demands... many billions can live in this world if we all reduce our demands to a bowl of rice a day.

    17. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      Careful, you are treading on dangerous ground. Population expansion not occurring in Western countries, only in Third World nations. The conclusion you are leading up to is highly offensive racism.

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    18. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by argStyopa · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      OK, then I nominate you for one of the first targets for 'culling'. Have you reproduced? If not, then we can probably just permanently sterilize you. If you have kids, we'll have to eliminate them too.

      Oh wait, you have a problem with that? Hm, I wonder why your 'logical' solution isn't pursued?

      (Here's a tip: the bulk of population growth and childbearing isn't chasing tax breaks. Hell, even in the US the highest per capita population growth is in population segments that don't even PAY taxes. Sheesh.)

      --
      -Styopa
    19. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Imagine in a few generations a single great grandchild will have to support his parents and their parents and considering life expectancy ... maybe some of his great grand parents.

      This is wrong. The parents should be able to support themselves, and considering that the average health during "old age" is going up considerably, the grand-parents should still be able to support themselves, too.

      Which leaves us with seven people (1+2+4) supporting eight (great-grand parents).

      On a bigger scale, what you need to look at is life expectancy, the amount of time people spend working and the relationship between them.
      What nobody has dared to say is that if we, as a people, life longer we need to work longer. If our education takes more and more time, we need to work longer.

      No more retirement at 60 or 65.

      However, most voters in the western democracies are nearing retirement or are already retired and don't want to work anymore. Therefore, changes here are political suicide - which is one of the reasons why we will see a true economic collapse in the very near future.

      The young will have to live through these sins of our fathers - and being young, I do not cherish the thought.

    20. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by nine-times · · Score: 1

      Instead of trying to force people to have fewer kids, we could focus in building up cities. They're more efficient and they seem to naturally discourage people from having kids.

      Or I've also heard that population growth levels off when infant mortality drops. So in one sense, thought it's counter-intuitive, if you want to slow population growth or reverse it, you might want to provide better health care.

    21. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the world consisted of only Western caucasians, then the world would not have a "population problem" since we tend to have either stable populations or declining populations (hence the financial incentive to breed in Europe which is being abused by non-Western and mostly non-caucasian people).

      It's the more "primitive" cultures that are a problem since they have access to our life preserving and enhancing technology (IE longer lives, better access to cheap food) but their culture still values popping out kids like there is no tomorrow.

      BTW, I live in one of those countries so see the effect on a daily basis.

    22. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by chrb · · Score: 1

      You can get clean energy from nuclear fuel.

      Which is not sustainable either.

    23. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by KillaBeave · · Score: 1

      There's quite a big issue with your idea unless you want to go all Logan's Run on people (at say 55 instead of 30). When you are old, if you and all those in your generation had 1 child there would be 2x as many old retired people living off the backs of the young. If your children only have one child and you and your spouse haven't died yet ... there will be 4x as many old people living off the backs of their children and grand-children.

      It's a hard and ugly problem, but in a discussion that revolves around the "law of unforeseen consequences" to suggest such actions without considering the long term effects is ... well ... nearly a slashdot meme all it's own :)

    24. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, right.

      Reduce the population to 2 billion... because the several billions of starving and poor people of the world who are using up the resources.

      It would be unsustainable to have 6 billion people living as Americans live, but face it: you could live a great life with much less than you do.

    25. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Thomasje · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Amm ... a society with one child per family may not be sustainable. You are making the same mistake everybody that thinks that there is an obvious solution. Imagine in a few generations a single great grandchild will have to support his parents and their parents and considering life expectancy ... maybe some of his great grand parents.

      No, you, sir, are making the mistake everyone makes. In game theory, it's called the Horizon Effect: where you fail to make the move that produces the best long-term result, because you aren't looking far enough ahead to see the disaster that will ensue if you keep on minimizing short-term losses.

      Yes, lowering birthrates will mean that the generation that decided to have only one child per couple will have fewer children and grandchildren to take care of them. *Not* lowering birthrates leads to a world where natural resources are so depleted that your large number of grandchildren will have nothing to support you with.

      We're already collectively screwed; the longer we stay in denial about this, the worse the pain will be when starvation forces population growth to zero or less.

    26. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or China.

    27. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      I and my ex had one child. We are reducing the population by 50% in one generation.

      If everyone did that for two generations, we would drop to 2 billion and then people could average 2 children per family for the rest of time.

      There is no reason to give families $5,000 per year per child when overpopulation is a root cause of many problems.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    28. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by d34dluk3 · · Score: 1

      This is just FUD. As GP pointed out, the resources are available. We just don't have our backs against the wall yet. When that happens, nuclear will be unavoidable. Not to mention some of the promising advances in renewable energy that are happening right now.

      People have been saying that the sky is falling since at least the time of Christ. No, actually, it's not.

    29. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      The "young taking care of the elderly" is a one generation problem.

      If you are at 7 billion and you half the replacement rate, you are at 3.5 billion in 40 years and 1.75 billion in 60 years. Hence the 50 year mark.

      As for retirement, we are going to have forced, massive retirement sooner than later.

      Robots are very close to being ready to take manual labor jobs in 1st (and maybe even 2nd) world countries.

      You are not going to have shelf stockers in the 1st world in 20 years.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    30. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      I figured out why years ago. It's the same reason people bought houses they couldn't afford.

      Live for today, for tomorrow we may die.

      ---

      It took me a while but I finally realized a major role of managers (like military leaders) is to be hardass.
      Either all 100 can lose their jobs (or die), or 2 people can be ordered to work on a holiday, or laid off, (or die.)

      It is very hard to fire someone, or order them to work on a holiday, or to stay on the job when their wife is sick, etc. Yet someone must give that order.
      Otherwise everyone suffers.

      The longer we delay, the worse the order given will have to be. At some point, they may very well release bio-engineered weapons on the population (heaven's to betsy- reminiscent of star trek now that I think of it) because they avoided making easier (but still hard) choices 50 years previously.

      We are KILLING the oceans. Fishing populations are collapsing. We are using up all of the easy to reach resources. Most of the people being born will never make any difference to the world.

      At LEAST as a start, stop incenting more babies.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    31. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Obviously, we are not going to be able to retire as young as the baby boomers (of whom I'm technically part of by a year or two).

      The flip side is, there won't be enough jobs so we are looking at providing some kind of minimal assistance or else massive civil unrest (which will lead to warehousing people in prisons if they are not killed so why not give them public housing and food).

      It is a very hard and ugly problem. It resolves after I die. No way I make it another 25 years, much less 50.

      Old people can take care of themselves quite well unless they get sick and unless they were unlucky or unwise financially. My grandmother lived alone until she was 86.

      By reducing the birth rate (no tax incentives, stop sending free food to people who are reproducing beyond their area's carrying capacity, provide birth control, provide investments to those areas which are behaving sanely), we avoid much more hideous actions and decisions later.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    32. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Any time these conversations come up, the only real solution (reducing the population to about 2 billion) is ignored by everyone.

      Earth's carrying capacity is "typically" judged to be somewhere between 500M (assuming a wasteful lifestyle) or over 10B (assuming an efficient one.) If we focused more on efficiency, carbon neutrality and the like, we could probably sustain all of the people on the planet without too much trouble. As long as the focus is on profit, your 2B estimate is probably generous. But changing human nature to be more efficient is surely no harder than changing it to not fuck? In fact, I suspect it's substantially easier.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    33. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And as I always reply to proponents of this measure, I suggest you lead by example.

    34. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by ahodgson · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yeah, they may all starve to death or kill each other because of excess population, but let's not offend anyone to prevent it.

    35. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      At least have the balls to post with an id since you are proud to steer us into disaster by doing nothing.

      And you didn't read the post anyway. Nothing is going to be done. It's going to get extremely ugly.

      And I'll probably be about 10 years dead at that point.

      But hence the (bitterly).

      I can see we are doomed, I can see there are solutions which are really quite mild at this point, and I can see assholes like you are going to run us right over the cliff.

      The problem is things have been nice long enough that most people have no clue just how bad things can get. It's all science fantasy to them. But the fact is multiple civilizations have gone extinct from this behavior. Multiple non-human species have gone extinct.

      Now- if you have a BETTER solution- please post that instead of this "uh huh, huh, huh, well you go furst!" bullshit. It wasn't clever 15 years ago. It's increasingly stupid today as these problems loom ever clearer on the horizon.

      Until you address the basic problem, everything you do will just make things more oppressive and more fragile until being human is nearly unbearable.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    36. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by jafac · · Score: 1

      How are you going to convince the existing 6 billion people to do that?
      Violence?

      Your current math is wrong. The hell is here now. Every person who has to "sacrifice" is going to ask, "why me, and not this other person?" Most will resist violently. Which is fine, because only a few of them have access to small-arms. Fewer to heavy-arms. And fewer, to WMD; figuring, the more of "those people over there, (different nationality, tribe, race, religion), I can kill now, the less I'll have to sacrifice."

      PS. This kind of thinking has pretty much been behind the drive for most conflicts for the past 1000 years.

      PPS. Once the immediate "threat" of resource-scarcity is taken out of our face - (and I mean, like, starvation), we'll resume our previous rate of reproduction and resource consumption, or increase it.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    37. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by metacell · · Score: 1

      A small portion of the world's population is using most of its natural resources. It is only that small portion who needs to lower their demands.

      Also remember that it is not a zero-sum game; with better technology we can get more use out of the same amount of natural resources. So far, we've used technology to increase the standard of living while consuming even more natural resources, but if we have to, we can learn to use technology to be more efficient instead.

    38. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If my means are actually better than my parents with less overall scarcity of employment and money having more value, taking care of them and all four grandparents would not be a problem. So the point is? (In reality, the current trend is that the labor market is too crowded. Education has failed to help because of the scarcity and steep competition. Finding work let alone an income that can support myself is difficult. Let alone any other family. And moving back with the parents ends up a better option than being completely homeless. And as nice as it may seem to have a kid, what's the point when the situation doesn't honestly look like it's going to get any better in the future?)

      Improvements in technology have been seriously neglected in the arguement. It can pick up the slack in most cases. Factories used to take 50 workers to make something. Automation has changed that. Now they can take 1 guy servicing 50 robots, and accomplish the same productivity. Sure, you might not be able to automate the service industry that takes care of old people to the same degree, but even then on average the old farts are in better health and more able to take care of themselves because of improvements in medical knowledge and technology. Technology can improve the abundance of goods, while it in itself usually doesn't need to consume anything. (Of course some people would argue about energy, but if you use renewables in that case that's less of a problem. Also manufacture decent products with recycling in mind and as the long term end-of-life goal, and material resources are less of a probem too.)

      There is no real need to have more than 2 kids if sustainability is the goal. If you actually want to have the resources more abundant per person in future generations, having 1 or even 0 kids isn't that bad a goal. That would ensure demand would never outpace supply. Now if you want a future with the majority of people living crowded and cramped conditions begging for whatever shit job they can get, then go ahead and have 10 kids. Ensure to remind them that big familys are great so they can remember and think about it while waiting in the unemployment line or charity soup kitchen.

      There really is potential for everybody to have plenty and live comfortably without working too hard if you balance things out and manage resources. The problem in human society is that it really doesn't take more than a few greedy fucks that want to be on top and have everything to themselves to ensure that scarcity is made the case for everyone else. There is also a flip-side variant of that power-trip mindset that breaks and ruins things. They don't take much at all for themselves yet are equally as bad. Instead of wanting it all for themselves, they don't want anybody to have anything at all.

    39. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lowering birthrates on a local basis (before a critical point anyway) may not even be a sound strategy in a world where land can be taken by force, since regions without such limits will eventually have the numbers necessary to take the resources they want by force from those without such large numbers.

      Controlled population may only work in a scenario where you wait until you're nearly at critical yourself, such that you still have sufficient force to keep those with greater numbers in their own (now-desolate) lands.

      It's a pretty awful scenario.

      Unless of course you can somehow get everyone in the world to agree to the same plan.

    40. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      I think we solve the viral problem in under 50 years.

      I think using that same technology to create a doomsday virus is much more likely than a naturally occurring plague.

      Pretty soon, we'll be able to develop cures for diseases before they kill a few thousands of people (maybe hundreds of thousands in a really extreme event). That's not enough to keep our population in check.

      This relates to the problem tho of, "it gets easier and easier for one crazy idiot to kill a whole lot of people."

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    41. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Between your "we don't have our backs to the wall yet" and GGP's "the solution will find us do not worry", I'm having a hard time feeling reassured.

      Australia can support 200 million or even 2 billion people? Fuck, they're having a hard time with water shortages while there's barely 20 million people there. I'd love to see the plans for building the nuclear-powered water desalination plants that would fix the water problem to the point where they could support a 100-fold population increase.

      Just because there have been lots of doomsday predictions in the past that haven't come true, doesn't mean that we aren't in trouble now. This isn't about some mythical Armageddon, this is about the world running out of sources of clean water, farmland, fishing grounds, metals, and energy. Nuclear and solar power will help offset what we'll lose in terms of oil in the near future, but it won't replace all the other stuff that's running out simply because there's too many people trying to eat from the same trough.

    42. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "In a world where land can be taken by force" -- that's *our* world, right?

      I'm pretty happy that the people in Europe *don't* seem to think that out-breeding Africa or India is the way forward. This is not just the idealist in me speaking -- if things get ugly, a country with a lower population density will be able to devote more resources to armaments than a country that's over-populated to the point of starvation. You don't win a modern war with millions of desperate, starving soldiers; you win a modern war with lots of guns and bombs.

      What's awful about this scenario is the countries that are already desperately poor, that think even *more* population growth will somehow make things better.

    43. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Finally the earth has ample resources to go on if only we where fair and efficient. Australia can support 200 million on the coast alone. 2 billion if you green the desert. You can green the deset if you have energy. You can get clean energy from nuclear fuel. This at the cost of the natural environment, but then the aboriginees changed that ahead of us as well.

      Pfffft. You have got to be kidding, 200m on the coast? Are you aware of the small fact that we have very little water here. There was once a major river which flowed in between the states of NSW and Victoria, it is now a trickle due to the irrigation needs of the farmers who grow unsustainable (for Australian conditions) crops. We have a major issue with over irrigation causing the water table to rise and the salts in said water poisoning the land.
      We have Sydney (capital of NSW and largest city in AU with a population of ~6m if I remember correctly) who have now got permanent water restrictions which means that water cannot be used for watering gardens (with the exception of using drip systems or holding a house and only on certain times/days), hoses cannot be used to wash vehicles, concrete etc without a permit.

      And that is all with only 21m people in the entire country. Putting ten times the population in just the coastal areas will just completely fuck up the entire continent.

    44. Re:Have to laugh (bitterly) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Reduce the population to 2 billion and the earth becomes verdant and rich within 50 years.

      That is, unless those 2 billion consume on average thrice as much as we do now, per capita. And indeed that is what will happen if our current cancerous (i.e., growth-obsessed) economic system were to remain in place beside your proposed population decline. Eventually they'd exceed our current aggregate consumption.

      Population decline by itself is not the solution. Economic restructuring is the primary component of the solution, along with reduced consumption, increased efficiency, advanced technology, and yes, some degree of population decline, though I'd argue that should be gradual and long-term (that is, if we have any say in the matter; certain natural constraints may force the issue).

  22. We are predators? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not sure that describes the situation quite so well, since herbivores would consume every resource they had access to if something didn't cull their population.

  23. Check it out by 7-Vodka · · Score: 1

    That's what she said!

    --

    Liberty.

  24. con and trade by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Cap and trade is 100% the invention of the banker gangster money manipulation and massive skimming types like enron and goldman sachs. Do some research and actually trace the origins back. They have the left wing totally faked out over this and their other successful attempts to hijack the environmental movement, along with half the right wing. The other half of the right wing actually knows this so they aren't faked out over this massive scam. You've been used and don't even realize it. You are "in the pockets" of wall street. You can use this real data to counter any of that other nonsense you are thinking.

    1. Re:con and trade by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do some research

      Danger Will Robinson, Danger!

  25. heh, he said "peak wood" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    As I get older, I wish I could get peak wood more often.

    1. Re:heh, he said "peak wood" by kiwijapan · · Score: 3, Funny

      For some reason reading the words "virgin timber" and "peak wood" makes me want to break out in song.... "Ohhhh... He's a lumberjack, and he's okay. He sleeps all night and he works all day. "

  26. Mod parent up by Chrisq · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This is exactly what is happening. As well as exploiting third-world workers in sweat shops we are knowingly exploiting future generations.

    1. Re:Mod parent up by ultranova · · Score: 2, Insightful

      As well as exploiting third-world workers in sweat shops we are knowingly exploiting future generations.

      Who's this "we" you're talking about? I am not exploiting anyone; it's the corporate overlords who are abusing both first- and third-world workers and future generations to increase their profits.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    2. Re:Mod parent up by siloko · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I am not exploiting anyone;

      So I guess you're a fruitarian, living in a self-built log cabin on public land utilising only sustainable, natural, locally sourced products and self-generated power. O is that a computer you're posting from . . . ?

      We in the west can't help but be exploiters by dint of our wealth . . .

    3. Re:Mod parent up by shentino · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exploitation by itself is not a problem.

      Even wild animals "exploit" nature. Hunting and foraging both take away resources, and animals breathe out CO2 all the time.

      Ever seen a beaver dam?

      Nature was designed to be exploited, within reason, since she has mechanisms for restoration and recovery.

      The problem comes when we exploit too much and hamper recovery efforts.

      Similiar to how you start having cash flow problems when you raid revenue-generating capital.

    4. Re:Mod parent up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I live in a cave and my computer is made from metals that I've extracted and smelted myself. Electricity comes from the stream outside my cave and I burn bat guano for heat & light.
      I win.

    5. Re:Mod parent up by Sique · · Score: 1

      Do you feed the bats to create enough guano to keep the source sustainable? What do you feed to the bats? Is the source of your bat fodder sustainable?

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*
    6. Re:Mod parent up by camg188 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "For each such victory nature takes its revenge on us."

      That quote reveals much about the author. Much like the "exploitation of nature" comments above.

      The anthropomorphism of "nature" and placing in it an adversarial role with humans is very... Disneyesque.
      And much like Creationism, it is a not a good vector from which to deal with management of natural resources and legislation.

    7. Re:Mod parent up by mcgrew · · Score: 3, Interesting

      No, ultranova is right. Those in control do the exploiting. We, the powerless, don't exploit anybody and most of us are exploited ourselves, just not as badly as the poor sods in the overseas sweatshops. Just because I buy a product from an exploititive company, particularly when that's the only option, doesn't make me an exploiter.

      Stop making excuses for evil people.

    8. Re:Mod parent up by siloko · · Score: 1

      Just because I buy a product from an exploitative company, particularly when that's the only option, doesn't make me an exploiter.

      You could of course not buy the product. I know any kind of self-sacrifice is anathema nowadays but my original point remains; unless you are Robinson Crusoe sans Friday you are going to be exploiting someone. If you think my post was an apologia for exploitative capitalism (aka 'evil people') then that probably says more about you than me ;)

    9. Re:Mod parent up by FredFredrickson · · Score: 1

      Well said, couldn't agree more.

      Such a thought-terminating position to take, anthropomorphizing nature, to caution others not to venture where it isn't safe. Completely disregards the very idea that we do need to find an equilibrium, and that one may actually exist. Who will be looking if we spend our time cowering because nature is a god with a temper?

      --
      Belief? Hope? Preference?The Existential Vortex
    10. Re:Mod parent up by aliquis · · Score: 1

      Stop it. We aren't exploiting them, we are developing them.

      They work in the sweatshops because they earn more money that way. Companies employ them in the sweatshops because they cost less money than some other people.

      If you demand the same salaries for them they wouldn't get any jobs or companies in their area. And if they don't choose to work in the sweatshops but stay off in rural areas as farmers they will have to live on a lot less and be way poorer.

      Countries in Asia or eastern Europe and such which get foreign industries develop, get richer and catch up.

      Countries in Africa or other areas which don't get foreign investments stay poor.

      Sure it "would be nice" if they got the same salaries and education and living conditions within a day but they won't. More companies and more productivity is a huge gain for them, not a disadvantage or issue.

    11. Re:Mod parent up by aliquis · · Score: 1

      If one don't like it there's always the option to do something on your own ..

    12. Re:Mod parent up by drsquare · · Score: 1

      This is exactly what is happening. As well as exploiting third-world workers in sweat shops we are knowingly exploiting future generations.

      Exploiting third-world workers by allowing them to get better jobs than slaving in the fields, and allowing them to build an economy...

    13. Re:Mod parent up by Ash+Vince · · Score: 0

      Just because I buy a product from an exploititive company, particularly when that's the only option, doesn't make me an exploiter.

      I think that entirely depends on the product. If it is an absolute essential then you are right but if it is a product you could quite easily have done without, then surely you should have done without if you actually cared enough about the person who was exploited in the production of the product.

      A great many of the things today that we cannot think of doing without were once considered luxuries. I think a pretty good test is to work out if it was sustainable for every member of the entire worlds population to have the product. If not, it is clearly a luxury since we in the west will always have to deprive someone else in order to ensure we have it.

      --
      I dont read /. to RTFA, I read /. to offend people in ignorance.
    14. Re:Mod parent up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah. So basically petroleum refining, aluminum, and semiconductors are totally cool. Earth is cool with that because "she" already imagined it and has the "mechanisms" for "restoration" and "recovery". The quotes are to highlight your absurdity. Shouldn't you be studying up on your homeopathy or getting in tune with the spirit of nature? Don't forget the incense!

    15. Re:Mod parent up by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Exploiting third-world workers by allowing them to get better jobs than slaving in the fields, and allowing them to build an economy...

      ...and then when those workers ask for too much money, destroy that economy by moving to the next third-world country.

    16. Re:Mod parent up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      last time I checked, bats feed themselves

    17. Re:Mod parent up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe the laws of thermodynamics make it clear that nature was not designed to be exploited lest you lead to the heat death sooner.

    18. Re:Mod parent up by IndustrialComplex · · Score: 1

      The anthropomorphism of "nature" and placing in it an adversarial role with humans is very... Disneyesque.
      And much like Creationism, it is a not a good vector from which to deal with management of natural resources and legislation.

      Anthropomorphising nature however, is sometimes the most illustrative (how disneyesque itself) way of explaining the reality to someone and expressing potential consequences.

      For example: Nature doesn't have any legs, nor does it care if I built a house in a flood plain along the Mississippi River. But I can think of no more succinct and apt way to describe the potential consequences than saying, 'Nature is going to kick my ass'.

      --
      Out of modpoints but really liked a post? 1BDkF6TtmmeZ3yqXbz9yhdYVqRYnwFoXDj
    19. Re:Mod parent up by mcgrew · · Score: 2, Insightful

      A great many of the things today that we cannot think of doing without were once considered luxuries.

      EVERYTHING but food was once considered a luxury. Sanitation, indoor plumbing, electricity, telephones, transportation... but the fact is you can't make a living or even stay alive in today's world without those things.

    20. Re:Mod parent up by losfromla · · Score: 1

      Bats eat insects, something on the order of, their weight in insects daily, or something like that. Insects are a fairly self-renewable resource and probably the most likely to survive (individual types may die out) as a group.

      --
      Only I can judge you.
    21. Re:Mod parent up by losfromla · · Score: 1

      Better jobs slaving 12-18 hours a day with 2 5 minute breaks and 15 minutes for lunch time? Yeah, so much better than the seasonal type of work involved in being a sustenance farmer. Sure, it's backbreaking for a few weeks a year but the rest of the time, it's not all bad. Fresh air, clean food, exercise, wide open land. vs Stale air, very cold or hot, cramped conditions, sexual abuse... Yeah, being a serf on someone else's land is not good, but trading in your freedom and land for slaving in a factory? Why? So you can afford a TV to watch vacuous entertainment? I don't see it as progress.

      --
      Only I can judge you.
    22. Re:Mod parent up by sbeckstead · · Score: 1

      Simple he didn't say where his bathroom was and that will surely draw insects, bingo bat guano. Come on people use a little imagination, I want to know what he burnt in the smelter.

    23. Re:Mod parent up by esocid · · Score: 1

      Yes, exploitation is an ecological process, but with humans, it carries a different connotation. There is no check to our exploitation, and it will be the end of us. Other populations have cycles, but our societies require a certain number of trained/intelligent people to continue to operate. Lack of food and fresh water will crash our population long before war does. Fresh water will especially become a commodity.

      --
      Absolute power corrupts absolutely. indymedia
    24. Re:Mod parent up by Shotgun · · Score: 1

      No, ultranova is right. Those in control do the exploiting. We, the powerless, don't exploit anybody and most of us are exploited ourselves, just not as badly as the poor sods in the overseas sweatshops. Just because I buy a product from an exploititive company, particularly when that's the only option, doesn't make me an exploiter.

      Stop making excuses for evil people.

      Stop making excuses for yourself. The whole "I am powerless" mantra is simply pathetic. Isn't it nice how your powerlessness releases you from any responsibility?

      If the poor wankers in the third world countries can't stand to work in the sweatshops, let them return to working at scratching out a living with subsistence farming. For those that choose to stay, I will buy the cheap products that produce as of means of supporting THEIR choice.

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    25. Re:Mod parent up by Shotgun · · Score: 1

      You obviously have not ever had to live as a sustenance farmer. Neither have I, but my father did. Do you think food is the ONLY thing they have to work hard for? What do they do for shelter? clothing? heat? All that can be accomplished in only a few weeks out of the year, and the rest of the time they get to roam around like they're in some Disney movie? If you had a clue, would you recognize it?

      They work hard to buy a TV, you say. But why would they work to buy the TV, unless they were going to have time to watch it?

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    26. Re:Mod parent up by lewiscr · · Score: 1
      That's why he proposed an alternate test:

      I think a pretty good test is to work out if it was sustainable for every member of the entire worlds population to have the product.

      The counter examples you cite are sustainable for the entire world. Some (indoor plumbing, sanitation) are possible, if we cared enough to do it. Some (transportation, electricity) are sustainable, but not to the extent that Americans enjoy them.

    27. Re:Mod parent up by yndrd1984 · · Score: 1

      Fresh air, clean food, exercise, wide open land.
      Fresh air, small amounts of a single staple food mixed with rat droppings, back-breaking labor throughout the growing season, and the tiny plot of land that you must abuse to feed your family.

      Stale air, very cold or hot, cramped conditions, sexual abuse
      Right, because nobody was ever raped in the fields, or died of exposure, heat stroke, animal attacks, drowning, ...

      Why? So you can afford a TV to watch vacuous entertainment?
      So they can send their kids to school, buy a sewing machine and start their own business, eat a more balanced diet, ...

      I don't see it as progress.
      Then you're not looking. It certainly has a lot of downsides, but there doesn't seem to be any other way to develop the kind of society that can afford to waste time romanticizing the short, hellish life that our ancestors spent the last two centuries trying to escape.

    28. Re:Mod parent up by mcgrew · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      The whole "I am powerless" mantra is simply pathetic.

      If you're not powerless then why isn't Bob Barr President (or whoever you favor)? You're simply fooling yourself. Bill Gates isn't powerless, Barack Obama isn't powerless, but YOU are powerless and since you can't realize that fact, you're pathetically blind to reality as well.

    29. Re:Mod parent up by arcite · · Score: 1
      Ever have an ant infestation? First one finds a crum. Then he tells his friend. About ten minutes later there is a conga line of hundreds coming out of that tiny little hole in the wall you didn't knew you had. Later...the queen ants start parading out, and the workers squeeze hundreds of eggs though that tiny little hole. They bring in specks of dirt and begin building. Building little caves of mud, one speck of dirt at a time...to house those precious eggs. It goes on.

      Then one day your couch falls apart because the ants ate their way through it and millions of baby ants crawl out and proceed to eat their way through your linux book collection.

      That's like us humans upon this Earth.

    30. Re:Mod parent up by omfgnosis · · Score: 1

      Anthropomorphism of nature isn't necessarily taken from a premise first of blind reverence, it may also be a rhetorical device to underscore an observed extant adversarial relationship*, which needn't be and which might be overcome.

      That is how the passage in question reads, and considering the source it should be obvious: the early (Marxist) Communist theorists operated from a premise first of blind reverence for *industrialism* (and indeed, capitalism), as a necessary precondition to an advanced communist society. Their theory incorporated a view of much earlier societies as "primitive communist" which they derided for their lack of wealth but otherwise stood as examples of egalitarianism.

      With their actual theories in mind, the passage seems more of a self-critique or a challenge to their own assumptions about the fruits of vaster and more complete manipulation of the nonhuman world.

      Your reaction is possibly from a position of ignorance of this context, but it seems to be a knee-jerk reaction nonetheless. The truth of the problem doesn't depend on anthropomorphism of nature, but simply observing the consequences of overuse of the nonhuman world. Using anthropomorphism of nature is a relatively simple lens through which to view the problem, and it swims in a sea of countless metaphors and rhetorical devices that none of us struggles to comprehend without rejecting the thoughts behind them outright. In short, it's important to not get lost in flourish.

      * And it's not as if this relationship is only dreamt up by opponents of mass exploitation of the natural world. "We need everything that's out there. We don't log to a 10-inch top, or an 8-inch top, or a 6-inch top. We log to infinity. Because we need it all. It's ours. It's out there, and we need it all. Now." - Harry Merlo, Louisiana Pacific, CEO

    31. Re:Mod parent up by Risen888 · · Score: 1

      Certainly those in power are the "exploiters in chief," but you (and I) enable and endorse that exploitation every day with every dollar we spend.

      Just because I buy a product from an exploititive company, particularly when that's the only option, doesn't make me an exploiter.

      I would like to hear a more thorough defense of that position. Please note that I'm not trying to dismiss you out of hand, nor am I trying to be at all holier-than-thou. Far from it. But I'm not convinced.

      --
      Hey, I finally got my first freak! Took you long enough!
    32. Re:Mod parent up by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Certainly those in power are the "exploiters in chief," but you (and I) enable and endorse that exploitation every day with every dollar we spend.

      But how are we to spend those dollars? We can't refrain from eating, or wearing clothes, or using a computer or phone. All of those things are produed using exploited labor, and we are completely powerless to stop the exploitation. Excusing that exploitation by saying "well, grow your own food" is a cop-out and nothing more. It only makes the situation worse.

      All I can to to try and stop it is to speak out against it.

    33. Re:Mod parent up by Risen888 · · Score: 1

      You certainly have a choice in what you eat (and what you wear, to a much lesser extent), probably now more than ever before in recent memory. How much you exploit or abuse the labor that produces your food, the animals that provide it, and the land it's grown on is in your hands. To be fair, financial constraints do dictate these choices to some extent and one of the most-heard (and most fair) criticisms of the sustainable food movement is that it's priced in such a way as to make it a luxury that the exploited classes themselves cannot afford.

      Clothes ditto, to a lesser extent. However, unlike food, used clothes are everywhere. I personally have purchased maybe one "actually really new" article of clothing in this calendar year, and I've bought almost an entire new wardrobe this year. And I'm looking damn sharp too, thank you. And unlike some sustainable food, this is something that everyone can afford to do.

      Electronics... gah. I know. I wrestle with this. I sell PCs and I know that I personally contribute to all kinds of terrible regimes and labor practices, and it's kept me up nights. And it doesn't look much better when you start to break it down:

      Precious metals: Exploitative mining practices, mostly in African nations. Rapes the land.

      Boards and the manufacturing process in general: Real bad. Pacific Rim sweatshop labor. 12 year old girls. Environmental catastrophe. Sending money overseas to regimes that are not our friends.

      Assembly: Mostly ditto the above, but here you do have some more options. There are several makes that do assembly in the states and pay their workers a living wage. A few of them are even union shops if that sort of thing matters to you. Ditto on peripherals.

      The bottom line on electronics is that you cannot buy an American made computer, and even if you could, the raw materials are coming from some pretty terrible places. I try to do the best I can not just for myself, but for my customers. "Made In America" sells pretty well, and lots of folks are willing to pony up an extra fifty bucks for it.

      To summarize: You have choices. Most of them are not perfect, some are better than others. If you throw up your hands and say "I can't make a difference," then it's not evil exploitative corporations taking away your choices. It's you.

      --
      Hey, I finally got my first freak! Took you long enough!
    34. Re:Mod parent up by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      I get most of my clothing at garage sales, but I hardly ever wear anything but jeans and t-shirts. I used to garden when I had a big lawn, and the netbook I bought a couple of months ago is the first whole computer I've bought in 20 years.

      But speaking out against expoitation dosn't hurt, and may actually help. I'm not going to kid myself that I have any real power, though.

    35. Re:Mod parent up by Chosen+Reject · · Score: 1

      There is no check to our exploitation

      Seems like that statement is incongruous with the following:

      and it will be the end of us.

      require a certain number of trained/intelligent people to continue to operate

      Lack of food and fresh water will crash our population

      --
      Stop Global Warming!
      Just say no to irreversible processes!
  27. You're all missing the point by syousef · · Score: 4, Funny

    The point is this article has the phrase 'Peak Wood' right there in the title, and no one has scored above 3 with a joke about erections as far as I can tell. What the hell happened to slashdot?

    --
    These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    1. Re:You're all missing the point by dkleinsc · · Score: 4, Funny

      They didn't want to call attention to their virgin timber, obviously.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
  28. A bit radical maybe by bytesex · · Score: 1

    So essentially, mountains are the problem. I say level (some of) them. Use the rock to elevate the valleys, so you end up with huge (slightly curved, higher altitude) basins that will be fertile and won't wash away. Of course, you shouldn't be doing this to all mountains, because we like the fact that clean water runs down them and we can use the potential energy of high-up water for the generation of electricity.

    --
    Religion is what happens when nature strikes and groupthink goes wrong.
  29. Well here's the thing by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    While it is somewhat true to say that the USSR was never a true communism, that is more or less the same as the "No true Scotsman" fallacy. You are right in that it didn't function precisely how it should on paper. However, it is in fact how all communisms implemented in the real world have ended up.

    The reason is because communism does not take real people in to account. Real people are lazy and greedy. There are exceptions to this in various circumstances and for various people but over all, yo find this is true. As such, any economic/social system has to take this in to account. If you give everyone free choice to do whatever they want, and have all their needs met, well then many will choose to do nothing.

    The only solution in a communist system is to force people to do what is needed. You tell them "You must work or the state punishes you." Then, to make them work hard you tell them "You must meet these quotas or the state punishes you." Net effect? Low personal liberty, low motivation, and the perfect environment for a police state to grow in. The government has to be involved in everything since the state owns everything and has to keep tabs on people. In that controlling environment, a dictatorship/police state is easy to grow.

    So sorry, communism may sound nice on paper but it has never worked in the real world on a large scale. As such, without evidence to the contrary, I'd say it is pretty safe to say it won't work. Capitalism, at least when subject to some regulation and control, works. It allows for societies with high individual liberties and where most people have their needs met. It's not perfect, but no endeavor involving humans will ever be.

    Also if you really think that social class per Marx exists in America today, it tells me you spend far too much time absorbed in a philosophy you want to be true, and not enough time examining the evidence. The biggest difference is that there is complete class mobility. Nobody tells you that you are limited to the class in which you are born. Doesn't mean you can move up the economic ladder with ease, but it does mean you can. There are countless examples. This is far different from the system of nobility you saw in places like Czarist Russia where if you were born a noble, you were one and could more or less do nothing to lose it, and if you were born a peasant, you could never rise above that. In the US people can move up and down depending on what they do in their life. You can go from living on welfare to super rich, and indeed it has happened.

    Another difference is that there is not a "rich/poor" divide. For sure there are rich people, who can have a kind of life normal people cannot, and there are poor people, who lack basic necessities. However most people are neither, they are somewhere in the middle. They have their needs met, have some autonomy and independence, but still work for a living. The middle class is where most of America is. You can also further divide that middle class in terms of how stable someone is in it, how many assets they have and so on. It is not a bourgeoisie / proletariat divide.

    Finally there is the simple issue of definitions of rich, middle, and poor. What they talked about when they talked about poor was abject poverty, lacking in even the barest essentials. That is exceedingly rare in the US. Our poor are not, by the standards of much of the world and history. They do not have everything we consider essential, and they must rely on help, but they are not attempting to live through subsistence farming (which happens in much of the world).

    To me, it sounds like you've spent far too much time reading philosophy and not enough time looking at the world, and its people. Communism is a neat idea, but it is not a better system.

    1. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The biggest difference is that there is complete class mobility. Nobody tells you that you are limited to the class in which you are born.

      Uh huh...

      Doesn't mean you can move up the economic ladder with ease, but it does mean you can.

      Ah, here it comes. "Of course the more privileged can get better jobs more easily but that doesn't mean the system is somehow unfair, AMERICAN DREAM WITH US OR AGAINST US GODLESS COMMIES!!11 Err, I mean TURRRRRISTS!!! HATE US FOR OUR FREEDOM!!1" (sorry about the caps, just trying to accentuate how this comes off sounding like to a non-american)

    2. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The biggest difference is that there is complete class mobility. Nobody tells you that you are limited to the class in which you are born. Doesn't mean you can move up the economic ladder with ease, but it does mean you can. There are countless examples. This is far different from the system of nobility you saw in places like Czarist Russia where if you were born a noble, you were one and could more or less do nothing to lose it, and if you were born a peasant, you could never rise above that.

      The "countless" examples you speak of are very, very few, in actuality (if only even because the number of rich and super-rich people is so small to begin with). Your assertion that class mobility was inexistent in pre-revolutionary Russia is patently untrue. There are countless examples in Russian history of boyars being created from peasant families (mostly those that got rich or provided some valuable military service to a czar).

      Another difference is that there is not a "rich/poor" divide. For sure there are rich people, who can have a kind of life normal people cannot, and there are poor people, who lack basic necessities. However most people are neither, they are somewhere in the middle.

      The economic "ladder" you speak of is not a ladder. Wealth distribution follows a Pareto law in most places (certainly in the US).

      I find it hilarious, by the way, that you acknowledge the existence of distinct groups of super-rich, rich and poor respectively, all while denying that the class divide is real.

    3. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To me it seems that you have not spent enough time reading and instead have formed your opinions based only on short term evidence. Obviously a social class exists that controls the means of production, which is the monetary system. People must work 40 hour day weeks or become destitute; the amount of independence that the majority have from this system is very, very limited. In the end they will run out of room for growth because the planet can not support unlimited growth and everyone will become destitute losing their homes; as they have been made asset-less by the upper classes. The upper-class will then confiscate their homes and they will be pretty much out on the street, begging for some help to feed them. This is going on right now for a small minority, but imagine what things will be like in the near future if it's like that for everyone? Do you think you might then support a return to the good ol days of subsistence and some sort of anarchy? Perhaps. Time will tell.

    4. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Your comment is informative and insightful, but I cannot believe the extent to which an obviously educated person in denial about a very obvious class divide in the US.

      Taken a look at the names of graduates of Harvard, Yale and Princeton lately? Notice quite a few "III" or "IV" or "XXXXIV"s after many of the names? Throwing a bone to the odd bright, underprivileged kid from the ghetto does not constitute class mobility.

      After immigrating for a period to the US from a country where education was public and merit-based, and interacting with some of the privileged HYP classes, I began to realize that much of the "education" that takes place at such elite schools is in the realm of learning the ropes of cronyism. Your chances of later landing that job at a big {investment bank, hedge fund, consultancy} is much more closely related to how amusing your exploits at a particular fraternity were than any "talent" you may have. There will always be nerds from MIT or abroad to do the actual hard work while you collect your bonuses.

      True class mobility will not exist until elite education institutions in the US are as easily accessible to the lower and upper classes, based purely on merit.

      (Side note: I should throw out an an honorable mention for the various military academies, probably the only bastion of educational meritocracy that exists among top tier schools. Too bad you have to actually serve your country while your HYP counterparts 'summer' in the Hamptons)

    5. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That or nobody has developed a solution or system to solve the problem of classes. Socialism still has the potential to work just like capitalism still has the potential to work- it hasn't yet proven itself either. Capitalism is very young. People might be greedy but that doesn't mean you can't make different systems work. The thing is even shit works for a time. The trick is making that shit work longer. How do you make communism work longer? How do you make communism work better? Maybe a tad bit of capitalism is the answer. Maybe a tad bit of socialism makes capitalism work better. Sometimes things aren't black and white. You have to take real people into account as you have clearly pointed out. But to dismiss it outright just because all tried forms have failed thus far is just utter bull shit. You haven't given it a chance. Socialist systems probably need some innovative mechanisms to move them forward to encourage people. That failing is something that nobody has YET found a solution for in any system YET to be implemented. The weak turn toward capitalism because it is easy. The weak toward toward communism because it is easy. The hard part is getting communism right. We know capitalism doesn't work for the people. Communism in its current forms crumbles. Whoever leads the next dictatorship communist revolution needs to work out what it'll take and implement the changes.

    6. Re:Well here's the thing by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      The middle class is where most of America is. You can also further divide that middle class in terms of how stable someone is in it, how many assets they have and so on. It is not a bourgeoisie / proletariat divide.

      I take it you haven't been seeing what's going on with the middle class in the US in the last 30 years or so. They're becoming just like the lower classes, because real wages have dropped and fixed expenses have increased to the point where the average American has a negative savings rate. What's happening is that the middle class is slowly but surely being erased.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    7. Re:Well here's the thing by iter8 · · Score: 2, Informative

      I know you were talking about communism, not socialism, but at least according to some measures there's more social mobility in socialist Norway than in the capitalist US. BBC News.

    8. Re:Well here's the thing by Zumbs · · Score: 1

      However, it is in fact how all communisms implemented in the real world have ended up.

      It should be noted, however, that where Marx envisioned that Communism would be implemented by a working class revolution in the advanced economies, only one "Communist" revolution comes close to have been lead by the working class: Russia 1917. At the time Russia were an overwhelmingly agrarian society - if memory serves the industrial proletariat consisted of 2-4 % of the entire population. The ensuing civil war against the nobility, digruntled peasants and foreign invaders left the industrial proletariat decimated and industry collapsed. Pretty much all other "Communist" revolutions were either lead by a peasant based army (China) or a middle class guerrilla (Cuba - note that the Cuban revolution weren't declared Communist until 2 years after the actual revolution).

      My point? Pointing at those nations and concluding that Communism does not work is somewhat similar to putting a dog in the water, make it mate with another dog, note that the offspring did not develop fins and conclude that Darwinian evolution does not work. There is no direct empirical evidence to support your claims that Communism equals Totalitarianism. Similarly, there is no direct empirical evidence to support the claim that Communism does not equal Totalitarianism.

      Also if you really think that social class per Marx exists in America today, it tells me you spend far too much time absorbed in a philosophy you want to be true, and not enough time examining the evidence. The biggest difference is that there is complete class mobility.

      Marx divided the classes due to their relationship to production. Those who controlled production (Capitalists, nobility, etc) and those who did not (workers, peasants, etc). Do you seriously think that everyone has an equal control over production? And complete class mobility? Do you seriously believe that? As far as I know, all serious inquires into the subject show that people from privileged backgrounds have a much better chances of ending up in a privileged position than those from common or even poor backgrounds and vice versa. Regardless of their ability (yes, some studies have actually investigated that as well). It is not impossible to change class, but an important part of what makes Capitalism highly dynamic, which were noted by Marx in his analysis of the Capitalist system.

      --
      The truth may be out there, but lies are inside your head
    9. Re:Well here's the thing by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Except, of course, the small scale farming communes that operate on a communist system at the local level. I guess if we just ignore that part of the real world, your post is spot on.

      Believe it or not, there are still people in the world who have not swallowed the "greed is good" mantra.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    10. Re:Well here's the thing by Zumbs · · Score: 2, Informative

      Norway is not Socialist. It is Social Democratic, that is, the economic and political system can be summarized by the popular catch phrase Capitalism with a human face.

      --
      The truth may be out there, but lies are inside your head
    11. Re:Well here's the thing by Pentagram · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The only solution in a communist system is to force people to do what is needed. You tell them "You must work or the state punishes you." Then, to make them work hard you tell them "You must meet these quotas or the state punishes you." Net effect? Low personal liberty, low motivation, and the perfect environment for a police state to grow in.

      I think you have it backwards. People are compelled to work in capitalist societies, not communist ones: i.e., you have to work or you don't eat. Most civilised countries have a welfare safety net (i.e. they are a little bit communist) so it is more like you have to work or you don't get any toys.

      What you are saying is that many "communist" states have not really been communist but have taken aspects of capitalist societies.

      The USSR managed to take many of the worst features of communism and capitalism.

    12. Re:Well here's the thing by drsquare · · Score: 1

      However, it is in fact how all communisms implemented in the real world have ended up.

      Communism has been tried in less than a dozen countries, and Marxism in zero. Capitalism has been tried in thousands of countries throughout history and most of them have caused nothing but misery for the vast majority of the population. In fact, it was the threat of Communism that forced capitalists into improving the living standards of the workers.

      The reason is because communism does not take real people in to account. Real people are lazy and greedy.

      Ironically, that's also why capitalism doesn't work. Capitalists greedily suck up all the wealth, then lazily sit around watching that capital grow by itself whilst everyone else does the work. It's no wonder that every capitalist country needs vast amounts of regulations, redistribution, welfare, public services, economic stimulus and bailouts. If capitalism worked, none of these things would be necessary.

    13. Re:Well here's the thing by Kismet · · Score: 1

      "The government has to be involved in everything since the state owns everything"

      A nice summary of Communism. Now, change "The government" to "Business" and "state" to "corporation" and you have a nice summary of monopoly Capitalism. The two systems are only different sides of the same coin. You just change who owns most of the capital; a handful of rich and powerful people in either case.

    14. Re:Well here's the thing by iter8 · · Score: 1

      You're right. The US isn't really completely capitalist either. It's a matter of degree.

    15. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Another high school libertarian typing from the basement of his parents 3000sq suburban home. No thanks you ignorant apologist. There is not a rich/poor divide? There are 70mil people and their dependents (The underclass) that are diseased, hold no assets, and forever lack the economic freedom to do anything about it or even plan past one paycheck. Class mobility does not exist in any meaningful way. You are confused by the perception of class mobility, a likely problem occurring from a view from the top. I imagine this confusion is one of the many problems resulting from the brainwashing you received in your suburban school cirriculum.

    16. Re:Well here's the thing by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 1

      There are groups of different wealth levels in the United States, but you can move between them.

      Look at me for instance, I'm from a lower-middle-class family (wheat farmers/Indian Reservation, trailer houses), I'm marrying a "rich girl" whose parents are wealthy, not super-rich but lower-upper-class (multi-million dollar homes, boats, vacation houses, etc).

      So here it is very possible to move from class to class, in your example of how there was social mobility in Russia, that mobility depended on the good graces of the royalty, in the US you don't need a by-your-leave from anyone, good fortune and the right things happening.

    17. Re:Well here's the thing by misexistentialist · · Score: 1

      I doubt you can really use the USA as a successful example of capitalism. Our means of production are owned by the Chinese socialist government! Our prosperity is more the result of empire than of investment. And while the general standard of living has increased, there are still classes. Everyone pretends to be middle-class, but while the rich quietly fly above in private jets the poor are locked up in prisons.

    18. Re:Well here's the thing by Fnkmaster · · Score: 1

      Correct, I was going to point that out, but he did say "on a large scale" so he was correct too. The reason for this, I suspect, is that a combination of social/cultural homogeneity and strong community bonds are required to overcome the natural human tendencies toward greed and power-mongering.

      Additionally, as another poster suggested, the communities that practice some form of communism on a local level were not formed by the sort of violent revolution of the proletariat that Marx advocated, they peacefully self-segregated from mainstream society. Violent revolution often seems to result in the most violent and cruel gaining power for themselves.

      It seems that once you get to some critical size or scale of communities, combined with some critical level of heterogeneity of interests and goals, people revert back to acting in the interest of themselves, their families and their social sub-units. Which makes communism impractical.

      Even European-style socialism seems to work best in homogeneous cultures. A country like the US that has so many citizens perceiving each other as "the others" rather than "one of us" inherently seems to have much less social trust between citizens, and that makes it much harder to adopt socialist-style programs.

    19. Re:Well here's the thing by operagost · · Score: 1

      Capitalists greedily suck up all the wealth, then lazily sit around watching that capital grow by itself whilst everyone else does the work.

      I'm sorry that this is your experience, but I assure you that I have known many small and medium sized businessmen, and they are far from lazy. No one can start a business by being lazy. Execs? Maybe a few of them fooled people into thinking they are competent leaders. But they're acting like employees, not capitalists.

      It's no wonder that every capitalist country needs vast amounts of regulations, redistribution, welfare, public services, economic stimulus and bailouts. If capitalism worked, none of these things would be necessary.

      Frankly, the laziest people I see are the politicians, who never started their own business, spent very little time working in the private sector (if at all), but somehow think they can tell people how to run theirs. They're the ones who impose byzantine regulations on industry, promise largess to every possible special interest, foster a "victimhood" culture among minorities, and then when the welfare state fails blame it on capitalism when natural capitalism simply can't exist in this environment. When GSEs like Fannie and Freddie are holding BILLIONS in bad loans, how is that a failure of capitalism? When Barney Frank knew this back in 2003 but claimed that "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not facing any kind of financial crisis" and opposed reform, how is that a failure of capitalism? When Sen. Dodd got a sweet loan from Countrywide even as it was cooking its books to hide the red ink, how is that a failure of capitalism? When oil companies undergo great environmental and human risk to drill miles under the ocean because the government says they can't drill on land, how is that a failure of capitalism?

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    20. Re:Well here's the thing by phlinn · · Score: 1

      This is where proper definition of terms becomes important. People are only compelled to work in capitalist societies if you redefine compulsion to include "Letting nature take it's course" instead of "Do this or I will hurt you". The confusion between inaction and negative action underlies your argument, and every other "Free markets are exploitive!" argument ever produced. It is also wrong. Not helping someone who is about to die is not the same thing as killing someone yourself.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    21. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I find it hilarious, by the way, that you acknowledge the existence of distinct groups of super-rich, rich and poor respectively, all while denying that the class divide is real.

      And that's the crux of it, I think: that in Russia, the nobility chose became a boyar and who remained a peasant. In America there are tangible divides based solely on the varying socioeconomic stations held by the people, but to change someone's rank on the ladder all they need is more or less money, not an edict from some regulatory body that dictates a person's social stature.

    22. Re:Well here's the thing by 2obvious4u · · Score: 1

      Your comment is informative and insightful, but I cannot believe the extent to which an obviously educated person in denial about a very obvious class divide in the US.

      FYI - Your full of shit and blind. There are separate classes in the US but there is no divide. People are in the class they are in because they choose to be there. All that it takes to move from one class to another in the US is hard work. The minimum requirement is enough math to be able to balance a checkbook. So far these have all been general statements, now for proof.

      Where to start. I'll start with this past weekend. Ever heard the term "Mc Mansion"? Just this weekend I went to a wedding, the house that it was at was one of these Mc Mansions. The guy who owned it started out mopping the floors at a McD's. He became a fry cook, then got into the entrepreneurs program with McD's. A $60,000 loan and he had his first McD's. From there he grew his business and now has about 16 McD's and has his own "Mc Mansion" and is firmly in the upper middle to upper class. Complete mobility.

      Next, my own family. My great grandfather got stuck in the US just as WWI broke out, he was on a German merchant ship and they wouldn't let him leave port. He immigrated to Chicago. During the great depression they helped out another family during hard times. Much like the current market downturn property prices plummeted. The family my great grandfather helped out managed to purchase a large part of what is now downtown Chicago. Fast forward 40 years, my father is trying to pay for medschool, that same family that my great grandfather helped during the great depression now has an opportunity to repay the favor. They pay for part of my fathers schooling. He still had to work for the schooling and get loans on the side, another 15 years pass and he finally pays of those loans and bought into a private practice, he now owns about 6 doctors offices. He is firmly in the upper middle to upper class. His family growing up, a pastor for a Dad who lived on the church property, about as poor as you can get.

      Then there is me, you would think with an upper/upper middle class family that I'd be in the upper class as well; well I'm not. I'm too lazy. I'm firmly in the middle class and have no ambition for moving up, I just have enough drive to keep me from moving down.

      True class mobility will not exist until elite education institutions in the US are as easily accessible to the lower and upper classes, based purely on merit.

      Merit is enough to get you in, however those with connections still need merit, just not as much. What you and everyone else doesn't realize is how much work is actually involved in merit. I know how much work it would take to move up in class, and I choose not to do it, because I'm happy where I am and not willing to put in the extra work. What you don't realize is that there are lots of people happy to be in the lower class and could easily move up with little to no effort, but they choose not to.

      Also the tech industry is full of rags to riches stories, hell even Wal-Mart is a rags to riches story. What it takes to succeed is drive, nothing more. It is just that most of the population lacks drive; you can't blame that on an economic system. That same lack of drive is why communism fails, people usually choose the easiest path, without a reward for choosing a harder path, even less people will take it.

    23. Re:Well here's the thing by 2obvious4u · · Score: 1

      You don't understand capital do you? There is more than enough of it to go around. If you want to join that elite group, you need to start investing in that capital instead of selling it off for toys. Buy stock, buy properties, start a business mowing lawns. Invest and grow your business, buy a lot, build a simple storage shed, hire employees expand. All it takes is hard work, all you gotta do is work harder than the next guy. It really isn't that complicated, it just takes effort. Grow, invest. Just don't live above your means, save and invest everything you can. Start with a used lawnmower, the first day you'll have the thing payed for. No reason to upgrade it, live in the ghetto paying $100 a month until you've grown your business. You'll be pulling in several hundred by yourself in a week, but since you're living on the cheap you can reinvest every cent on your business. Yes it will be hard (which is why so few people do it), but it'll pay off in the long run. Saved up enough for a new car? Buy a reliable used for a 4th the price and invest the other 3/4 back into your business. Hire more people, buy more inventory. Turn what you make into more capital. It is really easy to build capital. Just don't buy toys. Yeah I know that xbox is nice, so are those new LEDLCD HD TV's, but that gives your capital to that handful of rich and powerful. The reason they have it is because you choose to give it to them. You're happy with the life they provide for you. So stop your bitching about the monster you created and start taking your capital back.

    24. Re:Well here's the thing by Kismet · · Score: 1

      I like what you said and I think it's largely true.

      Notice that I called out "monopoly" capitalism, which is the kind that happens when you don't believe that there is "enough" capital to go around. When Darwinism takes over (competition instead of cooperation), then we tend to hoard things and make people into capital too. When people become instruments of capital rather than owning their own productive property, then you have businesses that act as mini states, as we now see is the way of things in America.

      So, why don't people just "take their capital back"?

    25. Re:Well here's the thing by jafac · · Score: 1

      I think it's also a gross fallacy to say that ALL PEOPLE ARE LAZY AND GREEDY.

      That's bullshit.

      And has been proven largely false: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc&feature=autofb

      That's not to say that Communism or Socialism is the answer either.
      But look around you. People are *not* coin-operated. If they were, the Capitalist Paradise that the Republicans tried to create in the past 10 years - look, they had complete freedom to do so - complete 100% pure freedom; nobody tried to stop them, and nobody could have - and it did not work.

      When there's a boot-heel on your throat, it doesn't matter if it's a Right boot-heel, or a Left boot-heel.

      The world seems to work that way when you walk out of your Psychology 101 class. But when you take Psych 102 (and ++), you realize that real human behavior and motivation is more complicated than the "reward-punishment" model suggests. On an individual scale, and on a mass-scale.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    26. Re:Well here's the thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      America 1900 != America 2010

      Care to share a single number to support your claims? Rags-to-riches stories can and do occur everywhere. US exceptionalism is a myth: actual numbers do not support it. Of major Western countries, only the UK is shown to have lower economic mobility than the US.

      "Your" oh-so-close to seeing the truth though:

      Merit is enough to get you in, however those with connections still need merit, just not as much. What you and everyone else doesn't realize is how much work is actually involved in merit.

      Just because you work hard does not mean that your work is worth anything. Yale-graduate George Bush worked quite hard at drilling dry holes in the ground during his "business" days. HYP graduates all get worked over nicely for their 6-7 figure salaries at the hedge funds, consultancies, etc., jobs which people who did not enter those institutions will never have any chance to get. One of the great things about America is that most everyone works quite hard. Except some work 70 hr weeks to barely support a family. Others work 70 hr weeks to pay for their/their mistress' $2000 handbags.

      There are undoubtedly opportunities to improve your situation in the US and I am not saying it is a 13th century feudalistic state. But in comparison to european countries that have had large-scale social change forced upon them by the ruinous wars, America today looks much more like pre-war Europe than even Europe itself.

    27. Re:Well here's the thing by Pentagram · · Score: 1

      That's just sophistry. From a pragmatic point of view, most people have no choice about having to work in a capitalist society.

      You can argue the various merits of different political/economic systems, but people are effectively forced to work in almost all of them.

    28. Re:Well here's the thing by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Capitalists greedily suck up all the wealth, then lazily sit around watching that capital grow by itself whilst everyone else does the work. It's no wonder that every capitalist country needs vast amounts of regulations, redistribution, welfare, public services, economic stimulus and bailouts. If capitalism worked, none of these things would be necessary.

      Not quite right.

      The reason bailouts have been necessary is because there was either no or ineffectual regulation. The bank bailouts and mortgage meltdown were precisely because the Glass-Stegal Act enacted after the Depression was overturned in 2000 by Clinton, thus removing some important regulation in the financial industry.

      If the government had done its job correctly as a regulator, all that would never have happened.

      Welfare isn't necessary at all. It's just a bone thrown to the poor by self-serving politicians to get themselves votes, and has terrible side-effects, such as the near-total destruction of the family in that socioeconomic group.

      Public services are necessary in any government or economy. What public services are you talking about anyway? Things like public roads? That's a product of pragmatism. Having only privately-owned roads would be completely unworkable in practice because real estate is a very limited resource and has a fixed location. Or things like publicly-run water and sewer? Same thing (well, it's either that or a government-overseen and regulated monopoly); it's not feasible to have 100 different sewer pipes running to everyone's house. For things like these, government has a valid role in providing and managing public infrastructure that society needs to function. Or are you talking about court systems? These are necessary in any government or economy, or else you have anarchy.

      Economic stimulus isn't really needed either, it's another thing to get politicians votes, and usually ends up transferring public tax dollars to poorly-run companies. It's better to just let the free market work.

      I also don't see how redistribution is needed.

      Regulations and public services are the only things in your list that are really needed. The latter because the physical world places constraints on us, such as making it infeasible to run 100 different sewer lines and water lines and power lines to every building, or worse 100 different private roads. The former because free-market capitalism naturally turns into monopolies and oligopolies if there's no check and balance system, due to economic inertia and economies of scale, so government's role is to ensure a level playing field for all competitors in the economy. As long as it does this properly, the economy runs fairly smoothly, and far more efficiently than one where a micromanaging government runs everything.

    29. Re:Well here's the thing by 2obvious4u · · Score: 1

      Just because less than .001% of douche bags get a silver spoon ride through Yale doesn't negate class mobility. Also the political class, which might actually be the only walled class in the US is actually hard to get into, but economic mobility is one hundred percent based on how much effort you are willing to put into it.

      Working 70 hours a week at McD's and Walmart does not a millionaire make. If that same person was willing to live on Ramen and PB&J and not buy TV's, XBOX's, etc and only spend 30-40 hours on the one job and the other 30-40 hours at night school, that person would have upward mobility. Hell even going to a technical school would give you upward mobility compared to fast food. A lot of the fast food chains even offer education, management training, and entrepreneurship through franchising. You can't blame people lack of effort and point to statistics showing lack of effort and claim there isn't mobility, because it isn't true. Stupidity and culture do no negate mobility, it does however show apathy. Also your 1900 != 2010 totally misses the fact that 2 of the 3 stories were from after 1970 and culminated in the 1990's to 2000's. So if mobility ended in the last 10 years I must have missed it. There is opportunity everywhere, just most people are to lazy to take advantage of it. That or they are content with the toys they have.

    30. Re:Well here's the thing by phlinn · · Score: 1

      "People [need] to work in [the real world]" Fixed that for you. It's not the system that mean people have to work to make a living. It's a basic part of existence. The presence of other people does not absolve anyone of responsibility for their own well being. I disagree with your definition of force. Life requires actions be taken to sustain it or it ends. If you aren't taking the actions yourself, someone else is. The fact that those actions must be taken in order to live is not force. Force implies some sort of action, not inaction.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
  30. And for trees to be renewable by SmallFurryCreature · · Score: 1

    For trees to be renewable you have to replant them. Waiting for a forest to regrow on its own, especially if the soil has been washed away is going to take a while, they are still waiting for the Sahara to regrow its forests.

    Peak wood is not an unknown issue, there was a real problem at one time with finding the right trees for constructing sailing ships. Ever needing to be bigger you needed good long solid trees for the keel and especially the masts. And such trees take a long time to grow, longer then it takes to cut them down for the next armada.

    And don't think that peak oil is just a matter of cars. We can work around petrol, but plastic? All those electric cars got tons of plastics in them, and that requires oil as well.

    --

    MMO Quests are like orgasms:

    You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.

    1. Re:And for trees to be renewable by ultranova · · Score: 1

      For trees to be renewable you have to replant them. Waiting for a forest to regrow on its own, especially if the soil has been washed away is going to take a while, they are still waiting for the Sahara to regrow its forests.

      Sahara will regrow its forests when the next Ice Age will cause climate patterns to shift and restore rains there.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

  31. Ob by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    It's not as if it grows on trees.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  32. Coca-Cola CAN be used as a gasoline replacement. by denzacar · · Score: 1

    After all - it is all just carbon atoms.
    The only problem is that the catalyst necessary for the reaction is rather expensive.
    There are also trademark and patent issues, so right now only it is only used on the Coca-Cola trademarked racing track.

    Now... When we DO run out of oil, and if we DO find a natural source of cola that MIGHT bring the costs down enough for the whole thing to be economically viable.
    Also, by then, most patents on the Coca-Cola car should run out.

    --
    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
  33. you know what makes the best paper ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    check our the paper in your nearest bible. find out what kind of paper it is. this plant is far more productive and needs less water, fertiliser, and chemicals. higher quality too. what we really need is hardwoods, and the more beautiful and precious woods _are_ being plundered and not replaced. they will be gone. why cant we plan far enough ahead to figure out a way of generating the entire ecosystem and environment needed to produce river mahogany. there where many rivers in eastern Australia lined with rose mahogany, you wont find a single tree anymore. they're all gone, and the banks are filled in with arid excuses for what used to be present. the rivers too are polluted and eutriphicated, in places blue green algy can make it unsafe to swim or drink.

    rainforests are complex and beautiful envonments, we should be studying and reproducing them. yes, their species can take 100 years to grow, but we should be terraforming them back. instead we have vast clear felled planes, unused, not even for the cattle the original land clearer's forsaw. how many cattle did they want anyway, why clear fell to the horizon, its just madness. now its all gone, all what used to be the most beautiful rainforest's with their fauna and rivers, waterfalls, replaced with parched eroding grass. in a bad summer the grass will go brown and the landscape looks dead. the only animals completely depend on their farmers providing feed and water. lambs should be in lush pastures not eating soy in a dusty outback. we've got to stop the madness or we'll be lining up for soylent green

  34. I disagree with doing the research again by captainpanic · · Score: 1

    Engels (as in Marx & Engels) is one of the authors of the Communist Manifesto and largely a lot of the Communist doctrine. To use a quote from him and his research to debate oil usage would be pure suicide on a political realm because your opponent would have an easy time pointing out that a socialist -- possibly one of the earliest socialists -- did research to point out the horrors that Capitalism wrought upon the environment. The resulting suggestion for Cap and Trade or retarding economic growth in the name of environmental consciousness would be taken up by the opposition as the evil socialism from the old enemy of Communist USSR and readily gobbled down by the older American people. Because it's fairly common for the American people to choose to see things in black and white where someone is either 100% wrong or 100% correct. Complete and utter bullshit but that's the logic the summary will invoke and it would be impossible to use this logic in any sort of debate. To further this comparison in the United States at least, you'd do better to just re-research Engels' work looking at Peak Wood instead of trying to quote or cite him.

    If you fight our current system of depletion and debts, you will meet an opposition that will call you a socialist or a commie no matter what... You also will have to fight arguments which are not real arguments against your points, but merely statements meant to discredit you in person... Calling you a communist is a pretty good one.

    You may as well just keep your references in tact and pretend to know a little history. If you plan to change the public opinion with facts, at least do it properly.

    If you plan to do it any other way, I would propose a different strategy altogether. Scaremongering, attacking your opposition, oneliners and lies are the way to go then. Not a new objective research.

  35. Peak Wood and blue pills by Aceticon · · Score: 1

    Somehow those two concepts just poped-up linked in my mind.

  36. Frrrrrp by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Just because methane can be made from enchiladas doesn't mean it can only be made from enchiladas.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    1. Re:Frrrrrp by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Perhaps the argument needs to be framed more specifically, since your statement goes both ways (even if one assumes some petroleum came from fossils, it does not follow that all petroleum comes from fossils).

      I guess the question really should be, what kind of predictions can we make about natural petroleum that would indicate either its biotic or abiotic origin, what kind of ratio exists between biotic and abiotic deposits, and for abiotic petroleum, what is the world-wide rate of regeneration.

      In any case, nobody seriously asserts that organic molecules must come from biotic sources -> trolling by calling it "non-organic organic oil" is missing the point and ignoring the proof. Good arguments may be made that abiotic oil is scant, or just as limited in regeneration as biotic oil, but simply stating that you can't get something "organic" from something "non-organic" is a false assertion.

  37. He said "Wood". Hehehehe. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He said "Wood". Hehehehe.

  38. A: because it breaks the flow of a message by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Q: Why is starting a comment in the Subject: line incredibly irritating?

    --
    Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    1. Re:A: because it breaks the flow of a message by tophermeyer · · Score: 1

      Thank you. Thank you so much.

    2. Re:A: because it breaks the flow of a message by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      Point taken(but shouldn't you leave worring about message flow to TCP?)

    3. Re:A: because it breaks the flow of a message by noidentity · · Score: 1
      But I know that my readers are just DYING to read whatever I have to say, so I can start my subject line with a cliffhanger sentence without problem. Besides, what the hell is a subject line for anyway? When I'm in a library, I just want to read the first sentences of the books. I don't care what they're about. Subject lines are hard, let's go shopping!

      (translation: in full agreement with you)

    4. Re:A: because it breaks the flow of a message by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It flows quite well, if your title is appended by "..." and your post begins with a lower-case letter. Therefore I see your point.

  39. Not just Easter Island either by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Not just Easter Island either. Scotland USED to have quite a dense pine forest until it was cleared for farming by humans. That meant the soil got poorer and now many places are UNABLE to support trees where there used to be loads of them.

  40. My wood is peeking right now. by outsider007 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Out of my underpants. Thanks and good night.

    --
    If you mod me down the terrorists will have won
    1. Re:My wood is peeking right now. by ZosX · · Score: 1

      I always hit peak wood in the morning.

  41. Wood vs. Oil - Bad Analogy by EmagGeek · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You can plant trees and reap the timber in just a few decades. You can plan to create new oil, but the process takes 50 million years. There's a slight difference in practicality between the two.

    We've become exceedingly good at forest management (except in California where they're so concerned about saving the poor underbrush that they'd rather burn down the entire forest, along with San Diego, than properly manage their forests). Timber is a renewable resource, whereas we are pretty sure oil is not.

    We can manage timber to avoid "peak wood," but we cannot manage oil to avoid "peak oil," if such a thing exists.

    1. Re:Wood vs. Oil - Bad Analogy by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

      You can manufacture biofuels, and it doesn't take decades to do so. The black gunk we pull from the ground has to be heavily processed before it can be used to fuel your card, make plastics or lubricate an engine. The same applies to plants that we convert into ethanol or extract vegetable fats from and manipulate chemically into useful fuel, plastics or lubricants.

      There are chemical differences, and differences in processes and differences of how you obtain the material. but in many situations the two products are interchangeable and serve identical functions. It's like the difference between potatoes and rice, both are starchy staples that are relatively easy and inexpensive to grow. they can be made into similar types of flour. if we had a collapse of rice production, we could likely eat potatoes and vice versa. I believe if we had a collapse of the petroleum industry we could use biofuels. Obviously in both scenarios the transition would take time and be extremely costly. But if we were forced to use biofuels I think the processing for biofuels would become cheaper, and we would eventually approach the issue in a way where we aren't using mostly animal and human foodstocks for biofuels. (such as the corn energy economy that some are pushing)

      --
      “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
    2. Re:Wood vs. Oil - Bad Analogy by ErikZ · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "You can plan to create new oil, but the process takes 50 million years."

      Why would it take that long? How inefficient is your oil production plant?

      Hydrocarbons is still the best way to move energy around. And the molecule is basically carbon and hydrogen. No crazy elements needed. Why not make our own?

      The reason this hasn't been looked into, is because it's far cheaper to mine it out of the ground or extract it from coal and shale. Assuming those processes become impossibly expensive, then making our own using production plants powered by renewable energy, or even nuclear, is a distinct possibility.

      --
      Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
    3. Re:Wood vs. Oil - Bad Analogy by DerekLyons · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You can plant trees and reap the timber in just a few decades.

      Well, yes and no.
       

      We've become exceedingly good at forest management (except in California where they're so concerned about saving the poor underbrush that they'd rather burn down the entire forest, along with San Diego, than properly manage their forests). Timber is a renewable resource

      The mistake you're making is treating all timber the same. The timber that 'peaked' in the 19th century (and is now nearly vanished) took centuries to grow. The timber we harvest every few decades today, well it took only a few decades to grow.
       
      The differences between the woods are immense. Wood from virgin forests (as opposed to modern managed farms) is extremely dense, with many more growth rings per inch. Wood from such forests, both hardwoods and softwoods, are much stronger and longer lasting. (Even taking into account selection bias, this is the key reason we still see wooden structures from decades and centuries ago still standing.) Not to mention the wood varieties that take centuries to grow in the forest aren't available from managed tree farms at any price.
       
      This mattered a great deal back then, when wood filled so many niches that steel, concrete, and plastic fill today.
       
      So yes, it's a valid analogy. Don't be mislead by how we take poor quality wood as the norm today.

    4. Re:Wood vs. Oil - Bad Analogy by mpapet · · Score: 1

      except in California where they're so concerned about saving the poor underbrush that they'd rather burn down the entire forest

      There's no truth in your summary.

      Where was the money to fund planned burns? How did the plants get there? The forest agencies ask for the funds and remind the purse holders of the consequences of putting off the burns and actively manage open space. The purse holders say "No." and then every 10 years there's an epic burn that the media turns into a media spectacle and we pay top dollar for another fire fighting crises. This little drama plays out everywhere in the West.

      --
      http://www.maxineudall.com/2010/02/should-economists-be-sued-for-malpractice.html
    5. Re:Wood vs. Oil - Bad Analogy by Xgamer4 · · Score: 1

      "

      The reason this hasn't been looked into, is because it's far cheaper to mine it out of the ground or extract it from coal and shale. Assuming those processes become impossibly expensive, then making our own using production plants powered by renewable energy, or even nuclear, is a distinct possibility.

      If I had to guess, the reason we're not looking into it is because the law of conservation of energy would smack anyone who tried. If you're expending energy to make energy, at best you'll break even. For all practical purposes, you'll probably have something like a 3:1 or 4:1 ratio of energy expended to energy created, if not something far worse.

    6. Re:Wood vs. Oil - Bad Analogy by ErikZ · · Score: 1

      Correct.

      This is not a method to create energy. It's a method of storing and transferring energy, think of oil as a battery. No one who uses batteries expects 100% efficiency.

      --
      Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
  42. Marx got it wrong. The people don't care by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "...Socialism is actually alive and doing pretty well, thanks very much." you say, while ignoring the fact that in almost every country where socialist policies have been implemented the 'progress' is being rolled back as you typed. Sarkozy in France, Fredrik Reinfeldt in Sweden, not to mention the whole of eastern Europe where the one time nominally socialist states have been turned into mostly capitalist countries. The tide is away from democracy, not towards it, and the proletariat are doing nothing about it except whine.

    I am afraid the world is not heading towards the socialist ideal you appear to admire, but instead is heading back towards it's natural state of equilibrium: that is, society run by a minority political class, where the bulk of the population has very little say in how it's done.

    The sad truth is, that the vast majority of people are not driven people and they will accept the political system which is imposed on them so long as they have a roof over their head, enough to eat, and can watch crap on television. They are lazy, cheating, selfish, moaners, and they will not lift a hand to change things and they will end up with the political system they deserve.

  43. Unintended Consequences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm not pro-oil, anti-oil. I don't have an energy axe to grind. But I would point out this: unintended consequences are not confined to activities that "exploit" of the natural environment. When dealing with complex systems, even high minded starts can wind up with bad endings. Consider wind energy. Is there an environmental impact to wind farms? What if they are used on a much larger scale than they are today? Isn't it possible that pulling energy out of air patterns could have unintended and possibly (very) negative consequences. Apocryphal or not, the butterfly effect's seminal (nominative) example certainly implies that wind farms have a strong capacity to change weather patterns. The polar ice caps are melting and endangering the thermohaline circulation. Similarly, one could imagine a small decrease in the energy of the Southern Oscillation (the atmospheric counterpart of El Nino) having global weather consequences.

    My point is not that we should stop striving for cleaner, more renewable energy sources - of course of course we should and we must. But we need to be tread carefully as we step into the future.

  44. or, as Blue Öyster Cult put it, by fishtorte · · Score: 1

    "History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man."

  45. it's all relative by je+ne+sais+quoi · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The issue is not the term "peak" I believe, the issue is the definition of renewable. We think of things like wood as renewable resources, but if you overuse a renewable resource, you can indeed collapse the population. We saw with whale oil in the 19th century, its production peaked in 1845. The reason for this was that whale populations had collapsed, and to this day they have not quite recovered for many (most?) of the species that were hunted. There was also that petroleum oil thing for which they started to drill.

    The point is that whether a resource is renewable or not is a relative term. It's relative to the rate at which you are consuming it and the rate at which it is replenished. Petroleum oil, on a geologic time scale, is renewable. On a human time scale it is not. Whales were being consumed much faster than they were reproducing, so the resource became non-renewable (each year there were fewer and fewer whales). Wood is the same way, you see it again and again in ancient societies, that the ability to sustain themselves is dependent on availability of wood. Once the population gets too big and consumes all the wood in easy transport distance, the civilization is finished.

    Do you see any hope that the U.S. can transition itself off of petroleum oil? I have my doubts, but I have no doubt that sometime in the first half of the next century oil production will stop increasing, if it hasn't already. Here's hoping for massive wind farms, solar arrays and good batteries (and nuclear).

    --
    Gentlemen! You can't fight in here, this is the war room!
  46. Oh Hell yeah.... by Vesuvias · · Score: 1

    The entire planet is absolutely covered with at least one, often both, of those, just in less economic forms. Solar, wind, tidal, plants, worms, poor people, etc.

    Wait a second. You can harvest poor people to fuel my Hummer? My opinion of the viability of Green Technologies has just changed. Starting my soylent green corporation tommorrow!!!

  47. Using ellipses... by postermmxvicom · · Score: 0

    ...makes it far more readable. I don't know what everyone's grievance is about this practice. I say, if it is *such* a problem, allow posters to post without a title and just show the first few words as the title until the comment is expanded.

    This is a *discussion* board after all. I don't preface every thought I have with a title when discussing things in real life, why should I here?

    --
    One last thing: Sometimes I wonder; "Is that someone's signature? Or do they type that at the end of each post?"
  48. ARM by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "And even if you do compulsory birth control, who gets to have babies, and what do you do about "over the limit" babies ? "

    ARM has three functions: they hunt organleggers, they monitor world technology, and they enforce the Fertility Laws. With a population of eighteen billion, enforcing the Fertility Laws is important -- but no one wants to join a mother hunt. When the press and authorities start screaming for more action, anyone not involved in a case will be pounding the streets hunting for illegal parents,...

    Larry Niven

  49. Fiddling while Rome burns by sean.peters · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A couple of things here:

    • This attitude that no one can do anything until everyone is ready to do something is killing us. We need to stop wasting time worrying about what the Chinese are doing and get our own house in order. Then we'd at least have some moral authority behind us when we push for their change.
    • The idea that getting our economy switched over to renewable power sources is somehow going to devastate it is ridiculous. There is a ton of money in manufacturing, installing, operating, and maintaining things like windmills, solar thermal, solar PE, and nuclear plants. And at least the installing, operating, and maintaining part can't be off-shored. And we could also stop sending dollars by the supertanker load to Saudi Arabia. And we could avoid all kinds of costs like, oh, say, the entire Gulf coast fishing and tourism industry being canceled. And we could get rid of a lot of pollution costs. And we could stop getting miners killed in Appalachia, etc, etc.

    Every day we delay fixing our energy problems, the consequences get worse. But hey, at least ExxonMobil, et al, are making a lot of money, so there's that.

    1. Re:Fiddling while Rome burns by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      There is a ton of money in manufacturing, installing, operating, and maintaining things like windmills, solar thermal, solar PE, and nuclear plants.

      This sounds disturbingly like the Broken Window Falacy - replacing a bunch of stuff that works just fine until you broke it (by declaring it evil!1!) and claiming that the jobs so created are "economic growth".

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    2. Re:Fiddling while Rome burns by sean.peters · · Score: 1

      This sounds disturbingly like the Broken Window Falacy - replacing a bunch of stuff that works just fine until you broke it (by declaring it evil!1!) and claiming that the jobs so created are "economic growth".

      Except, of course, that it doesn't "work just fine". It (meaning our current energy system) pollutes the hell out of the atmosphere, results in massive oil spills, and involves sending vast quantities of money to a group of folks who don't necessarily have our best interests at heart. This isn't a matter of "declaring" something to be evil. The fact that it's evil is objectively true.

  50. Speaking of hating to point things out by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    Private ownership of capital has been proven time and time again to work.

    This is probably not the best time in history to be pointing out the wonders of capitalism. Between global financial meltdown, widening income inequality, and environmental devastation, capitalism has not exactly been covering itself in glory lately.

    1. Re:Speaking of hating to point things out by khallow · · Score: 1

      This is probably not the best time in history to be pointing out the wonders of capitalism. Between global financial meltdown, widening income inequality, and environmental devastation, capitalism has not exactly been covering itself in glory lately.

      Come up with a better system then. I don't consider the above problems significant. There are already corrective capitalist processes that can handle these things. In particular, if you screw up a capital-related activity due to gross or criminal negligence or malice, you should lose your capital. That little fix would solve most such problems.

    2. Re:Speaking of hating to point things out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe it's time to give Distributism a chance?

    3. Re:Speaking of hating to point things out by khallow · · Score: 1

      Not a bad idea. It's worth noting that many corporations practice some form of this via employee stock purchase plans and dividend reinvestment plans (incremental investment plans generally run by the corporation to allow small investors a relatively cheap way to acquire a bit of the business). There always was an attempt by the Bush administration to convert roughly a quarter of the US Social Security fund to ownership of stocks which always would have had similar effects. The only concern I'd have is that too broad ownership could result in an ineffective or incompetent group of owners. For example, a lot of current publicly traded corporations are run by executives with meager amounts of ownership. The real power is in the bureaucracy not in the stock holders.

  51. You can plant more trees by Teufelsmuhle · · Score: 1

    You can't plant more oil.

  52. Evidence to the Contrary by mpapet · · Score: 1

    So sorry, communism may sound nice on paper but it has never worked in the real world on a large scale.

    Maybe you should check in on REI? Bunch of communists and their outdoor equipment. How about Employee Owned Companies? Dirty communist organizations fail all the time. (SAIC anyone?)
    How about **many** organized religions. Many Budhists, Christian organizations practice communist living.
    How about Farm Cooperatives? Those crazy farmers have ruined us all with their shared processing/sales facilities...

    US people can move up and down depending on what they do in their life.
    Maybe after WW2, but not anymore. How would they do this?

    Access to higher education has been cut off by shifting the cost of tuition onto the students. Public education is universally derided in the U.S. and therefore resource starved.

    Innovation has been constrained by intellectual property law.

    Real wages have only gone down for the bottom 50% over the last generation.

    Another difference is that there is not a "rich/poor" divide.
    Distribution of wages and assets is fundamental to a stable economy and social system. Pretending it doesn't exist harms the political and social fabric of a country.

    Our poor are not, by the standards of much of the world and history.
    Lack of basic medical care? check.
    Lack of food? check http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/FoodSecurity/food_frequency.htm
    Lack of housing? check http://www.misd.net/homeless/statistics.htm http://www.hcd.ca.gov/hpd/homeless0508.pdf I won't bore you with other states, but all 50 have the same issues.

    Wait, I know, these are damned lies and statistics designed to steal your Tax dollars right?

    You have no awareness of the consequences of your views. None. Please, just accept you are horribly misguided and go volunteer at a homeless shelter or a children's hospital.

    --
    http://www.maxineudall.com/2010/02/should-economists-be-sued-for-malpractice.html
  53. This is sort of a ridiculous comment by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    Sure, over the course of geologic time, oil is a renewable resource. Unfortunately, our lifespans (and, in fact, the lifetime of all of human civilization so far) are considerably shorter than the period required to form any significant quantity of oil. So practically speaking, there is a finite supply of oil. This entire line of argument has been rehashed about a billion times already both on Slashdot and elsewhere - so what's the purpose of your comment?

    1. Re:This is sort of a ridiculous comment by Eskarel · · Score: 1

      My point was more that it's not a mineral resource.

      If it was a mineral resource we could just recycle what we already have. There might only be a certain amount of iron in the world, but it doesn't go away when we make something out of it, it's still there, and we can reuse it if we need to, there's certainly a maximum amount of it, but we'll never "run out".

      Oil on the other hand is an organic compound, with all the baggage which comes along with that. There is no maximum amount, but you can't reuse it either, once you've burnt it it's not oil anymore and you have to wait for more to get produced. Yes because the renewal rate of oil is really slow we can't control its rate of renewal very well, but treating it like it's a mineral resource like iron or gold isn't correct and will lead to faulting thinking.

  54. clean farming? by Dragoness+Eclectic · · Score: 1

    Once again the guy I lease my farm ground to cannot bring himself to understand why I make him leave 10 yard untilled perimeters around all my fields. To him that is just leaving money in the fields.

    Send him over to your local USDA Soil & Water Conservation District office. There's one in every U.S. county not paved over with city. They'll explain it to him.

    I hadn't thought about it in terms of game management, though I can see where that is significant. It's also a very important, cheap way to improve soil conservation. You don't clear to the edge of your streams for the same reason--leave a belt of forest along the stream banks.

    Here's the money part that your thick friend might get: good topsoil that washes off your land has to be replaced, and/or you have to use more of expensive agricultural chemicals like fertilizers to make up for the loss.

    --
    ---dragoness
  55. Prosperity by CopterHawk · · Score: 1

    Environmentalism is a byproduct of prosperity. If people were living at a sustenance level they would not care about the environment at all. There is a nearly direct coloration between prosperity and economic freedom. A more socialist type system (less economic freedom) will tend to lead to less prosperity which will eventually lead to less concern for environmental stewardship. A balance must be found as regulation is certainly needed to keep the BPs of the world under control, but sway to far the other direction and you end up with far worse.

  56. Solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    CAROUSEL!

  57. Peak Wood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Nature does not take "revenge,' only people do that. 'Nature' is a collective noun for a complex system. Giving it emotions and positioning people in an adversarial way is meaningless. We need to pay better attention to the things we do within a complex system. The Spanish of that era also allowed Grandees to ride their horses into church. Glance at your iPad to notice that our understanding of how things work has improved. We are still learning but the direction is clear.

  58. Ecology was fundamental to Marx's theory by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

    Soil depletion was a critical economic and political problem in Marx's day, and influenced Marx and Engels significantly. They understood nature as cyclical processes, and the relation between culture and environment as dialectical processes. Changes in one changed the other, as parts of a larger whole.

    One of the best accounts of materialist thought, on this very subject, and one of the best books I've ever read, is Marx's Ecology: Materialism and Nature, by John Bellamy Foster.

  59. Be openly socialist and don't fear redbaiting by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

    One of the major problems with socialists in the US is that most are so afraid of redbaiting that they won't admit they're socialists, and use elaborate workarounds to present socialist ideas. This cowardice gets us nowhere. It's really rather absurd, when in the US we rarely have more to fear than harsh criticism -- as opposed to imprisonment, brutality, and death that socialist activists often face elsewhere. And hiding makes it look like there are fewer socialists around than there really are.

    As far as redbaiting goes -- yeah, people will denounce your socialist ideas. But, as is well known, people will denounce the socialist ideas of people who are not socialists at all. Moderate liberals are denounced as socialists. Moderate conservatives who endorse an occasional moderate political reform are denounced as socialists. And what do those denouncements amount to? A public announcement to conservatives that they don't like you. Big deal. It may cost you the Rotary Club endorsement, but that's it. Why worry about it?

    So, yes, Marx and Engels were concerned about ecology. They were also concerned with labor organizing, universal suffrage, and abolishing slavery. They had more to say on those subjects than they did on Five Year Plans. Maybe it would actually help our discussions if we neither sanctified M&E nor demonized them, but actually referred to them as the insightful and interesting, if imperfect, thinkers and activists they were. Maybe mentioning some of the political issues they actually worked on and wrote about would help clarify both those issues and how they may be interrelated.

    It was the perception that a lot of good causes were taken up by socialists that led to my being a socialist.

    Really, it'd be nice if we opened up the popular political debate, in such a way that it actually referred to the actual political questions in our atomized individual heads, instead of the absurdly narrow and constrained political discourse we're stuck with.

  60. just came back from china by ProfBooty · · Score: 1

    The poor in the western world really do have it well considered what the poor have in china. Plus the gap between rich and poor is vastly greater than in the west as well.

    This coupled with an additude that its their own fault for being poor doesn't help either.

    --
    Bring back the old version of slashdot.
  61. Sawfish and Cannabis? by IonOtter · · Score: 1

    Apparently this fellow hasn't heard of the Sawfish?

    The Sawfish is powered by electric motors, sports eight video camera eyes as well as sonar, and uses “biodegradable and vegetable oil-based hydraulic fluids.” Triton estimates that British Colombia alone has five billion board feet of salvageable lumber submerged underwater and that the number could exceed 100 billion board feet worldwide. The estimated value of these some odd 300 million submerged trees is $50 billion. (From Treehugger)

    Also, commercial grade cannabis-the kind that doesn't get you high when you smoke it-can provide 42% of our current lumber needs by eliminating the need to use lumber for paper products. Not to mention the other commercial products you get from it, such as clothing, food and solvents for use in paints, thinners and other industrial processes. To top it all off, you get several crops per season, rather than one crop per every two decades.

    So anyone saying "peak lumber" should just paste a cutout of Glenn Beck on their face and call it done.

    --
    [End Of Line]