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NASA Says 2010 Tied For Warmest Year On Record

An anonymous reader writes "It may not seem like it, but 2010 has tied 2005 as the warmest year since people have been keeping records, according to data from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. The two years differed by less than 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit. That difference is so small that it puts them in a statistical tie. In the new analysis, the next warmest years are 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007, which are statistically tied for third warmest year. The GISS records begin in 1880." Adds jamie: "This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average — 0.62 +/- 0.07 C above, to be precise. It was the wettest year on record too, according to the Global Historical Climatology Network."

554 comments

  1. Not so frosty piss by SoupGuru · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Let the flamewar begin!

    --
    What doesn't kill you only delays the inevitable
    1. Re:Not so frosty piss by altoz · · Score: 1

      are you implying there will be a war due to global warming?

    2. Re:Not so frosty piss by icebike · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Not much to flame about since I stopped reading TFA as soon as I saw "James Hansen" mentioned as the source.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    3. Re:Not so frosty piss by Pojut · · Score: 0

      Or due to being pissed on by hyper-chilled urine. Take your pick, I'm not sure which one is worse -_-;;

    4. Re:Not so frosty piss by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Interesting
      Agreed...

      The analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea surface temperature and Antarctic research station measurements.

      Since we have more than 1,000 met stations in our state alone it sounds like there's been some cherry-picking going on here.

    5. Re:Not so frosty piss by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      got the memo in 1988 when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created. Global warming was a term used to tell people who didn't care, or know, enough to figure out what climate change meant. I assume some scientist one day just said, "look, just say global warming since things are warming up. They don't care what the fuck it means anyway."

    6. Re:Not so frosty piss by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Where are the sensors for temperature located?

      Are these the same historical locations, year-to-year, over the statistical time-span?

      The devil hides in the details...

      --
      "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
      Never been known to fail..."
    7. Re:Not so frosty piss by jmorris42 · · Score: 1, Troll

      Exactly. Once you get caught brazenly lying your ass off the Fool me twice, shame on me rule kicks in.

      All of these guys get caught over and over cooking data and not only keep their jobs, the media expect us to actually listen to the crooks and liars. Not that the legacy media don't also get caught lying, fabricating evidence, exhibiting outragous biases and pretty much the same litany of sins against the Truth the Warmers are guilty of.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    8. Re:Not so frosty piss by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where are the sensors for temperature located?

      Are these the same historical locations, year-to-year, over the statistical time-span?

      Does it matter?

      If it is a long time-span, they will simply adjust the older data downward.

      If it is a short time-span, they will simply stitch in interpreted data from other stations.

      If there are demonstrable errors that make the reported temperature of the station warmer, they will ignore them.

      If there are demonstrable errors that make the reported temperature of the station colder, they will over-correct.

      If there are external influences that raise the temperature of the station (new blacktop parking lot, jet blast, urban development, AC exhaust, bbq grill), they will say the the effect is minimal or can be ignored.

      None of these are exaggerations and examples can be found throughout the data set.

    9. Re:Not so frosty piss by MrHanky · · Score: 0

      So, which climate change denier hasn't been caught lying yet?

    10. Re:Not so frosty piss by maxwell+demon · · Score: 0

      Citation needed.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    11. Re:Not so frosty piss by GreyFlcn · · Score: 4, Informative

      Actually
      Both Climate Change and Global Warming are unique terms that have specific meanings.

      To put it simply:
      Cause: Global Warming
      Effect: Climate Change
      http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html

      If anything, we should be talking about Global Warming more.
      Because it's amazingly simple when you boil it down to it's bare constuients.

      **"Is it the sun?"** Sometimes but definently not for the past half century.
      http://greyfalcon.net/solar0.png

      **"Are we certain that less and less infrared radiation is exiting out into space, almost entirely in the wavelength we'd expect CO2 and CH4 to block?"**
      Yes
      http://greyfalcon.net/greenhouse

      **Is the rate of warming significant?**
      Yeah, I'd say 100x faster than you'd expect from changes in earth's orbit alone is significant.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bftcWQiZPPg
      http://www.skepticalscience.com/How-to-explain-Milankovitch-cycles-to-a-hostile-Congressman-in-30-seconds.html
      http://greyfalcon.net/climate2
      (^^ I need a better source for this comment)

      **"Do we know that the CO2 is from fossil fuels. i.e. "Manmade CO2"**
      Yes
      http://greyfalcon.net/carbon3
      http://greyfalcon.net/c14
      http://greyfalcon.net/carbon2

      DONE. That's all you need to know.

      With absolute certainty "manmade CO2" is the main cause global warming.

    12. Re:Not so frosty piss by catchblue22 · · Score: 0, Troll

      Exactly. Once you get caught brazenly lying your ass off the Fool me twice, shame on me rule kicks in.

      All of these guys get caught over and over cooking data and not only keep their jobs, the media expect us to actually listen to the crooks and liars.

      So to use you logic, I shouldn't listen to you, since the oft repeated assertions of "data cooking" are erroneous at best, and lies at worst. First off, you don't mention any specific names or incidents. Nor do you give any background information so a poster can judge your assertions. I can only assume you are referring to the "hide the decline" comments in the stolen emails, regarding the substitution of more reliable thermometer data for less reliable tree ring temperature proxy data. It seems that an unfortunately phrased text snippet can outweigh a strong body of rigorous observation and logical argument.

      Posts like yours show a disturbingly casual disregard for any semblance of truth. You are trolling, pure and simple.

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    13. Re:Not so frosty piss by Adult+film+producer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The location of the sensors matters a great deal to the accuracy of the historical record. A sensor located in a city of 5,000 in 1950 is not providing an accurate comparison if that city is now 200,000. And did they move the sensor (which happens frequently) and how do the prevailing winds in combination with the urban heat island effect that sensor now that the city has quadrupled in size?

    14. Re:Not so frosty piss by davester666 · · Score: 1

      I deny your so-call 'fact' based on the fact that today, the temperature was below -20 degrees Celcius all day.

      Obviously, the very idea that there could be something like 'global warming' when there is any spot on Earth this cold is simply ludicrous.

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    15. Re:Not so frosty piss by LongearedBat · · Score: 3, Informative
      Agree with all your points, except your conclusion. From http://www.earthsave.org/globalwarming.htm :

      The focus solely on CO2 is fueled in part by misconceptions. It’s true that human activity produces vastly more CO2 than all other greenhouse gases put together. However, this does not mean it is responsible for most of the earth’s warming. Many other greenhouse gases trap heat far more powerfully than CO2, some of them tens of thousands of times more powerfully. When taking into account various gases’ global warming potential—defined as the amount of actual warming a gas will produce over the next one hundred years—it turns out that gases other than CO2 make up most of the global warming problem.

      Even this overstates the effect of CO2, because the primary sources of these emissions—cars and power plants—also produce aerosols. Aerosols actually have a cooling effect on global temperatures, and the magnitude of this cooling approximately cancels out the warming effect of CO2. The surprising result is that sources of CO2 emissions are having roughly zero effect on global temperatures in the near-term!

      This result is not widely known in the environmental community, due to a fear that polluting industries will use it to excuse their greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the Union of Concerned Scientists had the data reviewed by other climate experts, who affirmed Hansen’s conclusions. However, the organization also cited climate contrarians’ misuse of the data to argue against curbs in CO2. This contrarian spin cannot be justified.

      ...

      By far the most important non-CO2 greenhouse gas is methane, and the number one source of methane worldwide is animal agriculture.

      http://notionscapital.wordpress.com/2010/04/22/earth-day-update-meat-methane-laughing-gas/
      http://timeforchange.org/are-cows-cause-of-global-warming-meat-methane-CO2

      We need to eat less meat and switch to less polluting meats (such as kangaroo).

    16. Re:Not so frosty piss by caerwyn · · Score: 5, Informative

      The issue with this, and the reason why CO2 continues to legitimately get the majority of attention, is that methane's half-life in the atmosphere is much, much, much shorter than CO2. As a result, adjusting methane emissions is less urgent, because the effects of the methane in the atmosphere vanish on much shorter timescales- the CO2 just keeps compounding.

      So, while methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas on, say, a 1-year timescale, the comparison is much more complicated averaged over the duration of the substance's lifetime in the atmosphere.

      --
      The ringing of the division bell has begun... -PF
    17. Re:Not so frosty piss by GreyFlcn · · Score: 2

      Well also it's just a difference in sheer volume.
      http://greyfalcon.net/forcing3.png

      However methane is the big scary beast to look out for. But indirectly.

      Main reason you have people with their hair on fire over all this isn't the gradual increase in temperature because of manmade actions.

      It's because that has the potential to trigger the release of massive natural stockpiles of methane. Which would cause more warming. Then more methane stockpiles. Into a positive feedback death spiral.

      In that way, you could look at CO2 as the fuse for a "Methane Bomb".
      http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=methane+bomb

    18. Re:Not so frosty piss by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

      Also I have no idea what he's talking about with Aerosols. Since that's largely constant.
      http://greyfalcon.net/lean2005.png
      http://greyfalcon.net/volcanic

      Granted, SULFUR content in those aerosols has an influence. However if anything developed countries have drastically been cutting back on sulfur emissions. (5000ppm used to be the standard. Now it's down to less than 15ppm. Some places down to 5ppm in diesel)
      http://greyfalcon.net/forcing.png

      However then again, unmitigated air pollution also produces large quantities of O3 and NO3.

      Also I'd have to check, but I'm pretty sure sulfur molecules don't last very long in the troposphere.

      Where as the CO2 and NO3 produced in parallel lasts for a long time.

      __

      In a strange way, Chinese coal plants are actually keeping the climate cooler than it otherwise would be.

    19. Re:Not so frosty piss by mcvos · · Score: 1

      The effects of methane is well-known and has been for ages. People have been looking for ways to cut methane emissions, but essentially it all boils down to: we need to eat a lot less meat, or we need to find a way to stop animals from farting in the open. The first one is by far preferable as it costs less and has other beneficial effects, but for some reason people keep buying lots of meat.

      Even I started eating meat again after years of vegetarianism.

    20. Re:Not so frosty piss by Joce640k · · Score: 1

      NASA adjusted the historical data to correct for "urban heat islands" a few years ago. No doubt you were in the crowd of ignorant voices who claimed it was "proof" that global warming was a lie.

      Now you're claiming that they're ignoring the errors? Shame on you.

      Pesky facts here

      --
      No sig today...
    21. Re:Not so frosty piss by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "death spiral"

      A bit over dramatic there aren't we? There have been numerous times in our planets history where it has been warmer than this and they somehow got forced into a cooling cycle again.

    22. Re:Not so frosty piss by sunyjim · · Score: 1

      And the issue with your arguments are that the largest volume and by far the most common greenhouse gas is WATER VAPOUR not methane, not CO2 and not Aerosols. Second grass put in a compost pile, and gas put through a cow emit EXACTLY the same amount of Methane. So the argument that agricultural animals cause global warming is easily disproved.

    23. Re:Not so frosty piss by phlinn · · Score: 1

      They also need to know that the claim for the warmest year is based on adjusted temperatures. The USHCN and GHCN both show a warming trend in the adjustments for the past century that is larger than that shown in the raw temperatures. This directly casts suspicions on the extent of warming. The shape of the adjustments as plotted for USHCN is interesting, as it it's very close to a quadratic equation (could be spurious, but excel gave r=.9896) with the low point set in such away as to reduce the high points at 1934 and 1921 to be significantly lower than 1998, instead of just barely higher. I've posted a graph for GHCN before. I think I also posted USHCN data before, but I'm not certain. I added 520 to the adjustments just to put it in the same general area as the temperature data for comparison.

      I calculated this data after it was pointed out that the GHCN adjustments for at least one station added warning, realclimate accused the poster of cherry picking, then chose a supposedly random subset of stations. I was suspicious that they were cherry picking as well, so I went and checked what happened if you used all stations. It wasn't that hard to do, it it was clear that yes, the adjustments add a warming trend, so it would appear that they also cherry picked.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    24. Re:Not so frosty piss by jwhitener · · Score: 1

      The article states that:

      Data published by Dr. James Hansen and others show that CO2 emissions are not the main cause of observed atmospheric warming.

      But makes no reference to any statements by Hansen himself, saying that is the proper way to interpret whatever data is being referred to. Do you happen to have a link to Hansen saying that?

      Hansen said in "Storms of My Grandchildren" (which I am reading now, but found a google link) that methane accounted for half of co2's warming effect. Google Book

    25. Re:Not so frosty piss by jav1231 · · Score: 1

      And when it starts cooling, which many scientists contend is happening now, "climate change" will fit better.

  2. "Since people have been keeping records" by XanC · · Score: 0

    So that's the most recent 1.3% of the time that's passed since the end of the last ice age.

    1. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      We have reliable proxy data for much earlier than 1880.

    2. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Mashiki · · Score: 0

      Yeah and when life was the most abundant on earth, it was between 4-7C warmer and the CO2 was in the 20 times as much as today. Reliable doesn't mean anyone makes sense still.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    3. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So that's the most recent 1.3% of the time that's passed since the end of the last ice age.

      So it's a bit premature; so what? The good news is that it seems to be warming. Soon, we'll be able to grow citrus in more northern climates, grapes in England, and start growing more wheat in Siberia. If this "warming trend" continues, it is great news for everyone.

      The extra warmth means we'll have longer growing seasons, and Earth will be able to support a larger human population. Since more humans means more productivity and more wealth, this increase in warm temperatures will bring with it a new Utopian age.

    4. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by h4rr4r · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And most of the places people like living were under water. See any problems with that?

    5. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DirePickle · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No one is saying or has ever said that higher temperatures and levels of CO2 are bad for life in general. They are bad for how humans currently have their civilizations arranged.

    6. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      Too bad about all that land we will lose to the sea though.

    7. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by sexconker · · Score: 1, Funny

      We have reliable proxy data for much earlier than 1880.

      No we don't.
      Anything taken that far back was using vastly different equipment and methodology.

    8. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by BJ_Covert_Action · · Score: 3, Funny

      Nah, we just need to craft and install cybernetic gills! Hail the return of the age of Atlanteans!

    9. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 1

      12-14,000 years ago, while there were glaciers in the middle of North America, Europe and parts of Asia, the coastlines were 100-300 miles further out and there was a migration path from Asia to North America and likely land routes between what is now Yemen and Ethiopia, as well as many routes between islands in Indonesia.

      Humans lost a ton of land then too and we survived and did well as a species.

      Here in Alaska they are talking about how by 2050 the Mat-Su valley will be prime Hard Winter and Spring Wheat country.

    10. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by dave420 · · Score: 1

      You might want to read what "proxy data" means before posting again.

    11. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The places were most people like living are at or near sea level. That is why there are so many sunken civilizations.

      If the water level was 15 meters higher, guess where people would like to live. I will give you a hint as to how to find out: Figure out what land will be at or near sea level.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    12. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by scdeimos · · Score: 0

      No one is saying or has ever said that higher temperatures and levels of CO2 are bad for life in general.

      Did you miss the environmentalists trumpeting the demise of thousands of species due to global warming?

    13. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by dave420 · · Score: 1

      There were far fewer people, and exactly 0 cities. Sure, humans will survive, but civilisation as we know it certainly won't. It's a lot easier for nomadic folks to just move than it is for modern humans to relocate their stubborn infrastructure. I don't know how you can seriously compare 2011 with 12-14,000 years ago.

    14. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1, Troll

      What makes humans more important than the rest of the ecosystem?

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    15. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by geekoid · · Score: 3, Insightful

      We do.. and we are.
      To behave otherwise is to invite extinction.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    16. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by geckipede · · Score: 1

      Which period are you referring to? Serious question.

    17. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

      Not really.

      Human civilizations only really started forming about 10,000 years ago.

      Which is less than 1 iceage cycle.

      And things weren't dramatically different over atleast the last 8 iceages.

      We'd have to go back billions of years for that.

      Since as is, we're already 1/3rd higher in CO2 than it's been in 8 iceage cycles.
      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5314592.stm

    18. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

      Incidentally, long range climate understanding can't be explained without CO2 either.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5hs4KVeiAU

    19. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, not really. That actually happens all the time, even in modern times.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lost_Villages

      Very unfortunate, but there you have it. People move and get on with life. The world doesn't end.

    20. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by denizb · · Score: 2

      The problem as I understand it is not change of temperature. It's pretty well documented that temperatures have varried on earth since it's existence. Yeah, it's even probably better for life to flourish when it's a little warmer... Think of all the corn you could grow in the antartic for example. And yes, climate change will transform the landscape of the planet and will destroy some habitats and create some new ones. The real issue is that evolution, being a slow thing, life is only able to adapt if the temperature shifts are gradual as well. So the analog of what's going on today is more akin to a cataclysm (3 or 4 C in a few hundred years is as abrupt as it gets on a planet with a life span of several billion years), than a regular fluctuation of temperature that the planet would experience under "normal" circumstances... Without those changes there would have not been such a need for evolution. But we are talking about a revolution. Revolutions are incompatible with evolution, and will lead to the world as we know it to change radically in short period of time. This puts a wrench in my hopes of a Star Trek Next Generation type peaceful, religion, money and war free future for mankind.

    21. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      And millions of species have died in the past. Often due to climate change.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    22. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by mug+funky · · Score: 2

      life != species.

      a lot of species can die, and a lot more can come in their places that are better adapted to CO2.

      so what are we in those two categories? i believe we can adapt, but probably not without a massive "correction" in our population (read: billions may have to be shed from our population in order to reach an equilibrium. our only defense in this situation is better technology. some choose to work on mitigating this, others choose to bury their heads in the sand)

    23. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DirePickle · · Score: 2

      Sorry: A lot of species will go extinct too, yes, as fragile ecosystems disintegrate. This has happened over and over throughout the Earth's history. I tend to like the animals we have, so I think that sucks. But, other animals (usually the ones we think of as nuisances) will surely flourish, and new species would eventually rise again (provided we don't clear-cut and kill everything).

    24. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by nospam007 · · Score: 1

      Since the first humans in America, the Clovis people came from Asia about 11500 years ago, there was nobody in the US to give a shit about temperature 12-14000 years ago.

    25. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      It is also .37% between the time of the earliest known Cro-magnons and now.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    26. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Hmmmm. Life was most abundant? Do you really have measurements of biosphere mass?

      But of course, I know what you think you're talking about. That was in the Carboniferous era when the sun was significantly cooler and high CO2 was necessary to maintain the surface temperature. Not to mention that those levels happened in relative chemical equilibrium. What we're doing is not in equilibrium, hence the acidification of the oceans.

      Do you know what would happen tomorrow if CO2 levels went up by a factor of 20? First everything in the ocean would die due to acidification. Next, temperatures would start rising rapidly. Methane clathrates in the tundra would melt releasing bunches of methane into the air. Temperatures would rise even higher. Ocean temperatures would start rising leading to more methane clathrates in ocean sediments to release methane resulting in more warming. Water in the oceans would evaporate resulting in more warming. Runaway greenhouse? Depends upon who you ask. Destruction of most of the life on the planet in a short time? Undoubtedly.

    27. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      The fact that we are humans. Dolphins would care more about dolphins, of course.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    28. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 1

      Humans lost a ton of land then too and we survived and did well as a species.

      As a species, we survived and did well after the Black Plague, the Thirty Years' War, and the Holocaust, too.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    29. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by randy+of+the+redwood · · Score: 2

      The dolphins will just say 'so long' and thank us for the fish when it gets down to it.

      --
      The sun is the same in a relative way, but you are shorter of breath and one day closer to death
    30. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by MozeeToby · · Score: 1

      Lots and lots of people have said that. You might not agree with them, but that doesn't change the fact that they exist. It's partially their over the top fear mongering that has caused so many, ehem, 'skeptics' to suddenly become skeptical.

    31. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by pspahn · · Score: 3, Interesting

      A brief anecdote from current events. Western North American pine forests are being decimated by pine beetles that are thriving due to rising temperatures. Their historic range has grown because a lack of an adequately lengthy freeze during the winter is allowing them to live longer.

      As a result, forests are turning gray and falling. The ecosystems they support are waning. Without tree coverage, snow melt will happen earlier and be more abrupt. Water typically stored in reservoirs will instead just flow downstream and into the ocean (unless we retrofit reservoirs to handle more capacity). This can also ultimately lead to desertification. It's also worth noting that millions of acres of decomposing trees releases quite a bit of CO2.

      So, while it may be great for specific forms of agriculture in specific areas, there will also undoubtedly be terrible catastrophes caused by rising temperatures, and they have already begun.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    32. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you understand what it actually means for the CO2 to go up by a factor of 20? You're not merely saying for the current levels to be multiplied by 20, you're saying for the current levels to be multiplied by 2^19(524288 times as much as today). Do you realize what that would take? The equation is that every time the CO2 level doubles the average temp can raise by 1.64 degrees or so.. Do you realize how long that will take? We have plenty of time to correct this with technology IF it's even due to us...

    33. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by jmorris42 · · Score: 1

      > People move and get on with life. The world doesn't end.

      Um, no they don't. An hour or so south of where I'm sitting is a town called Cameron, LA. It has been wiped from the map three times in the last century. After the third one did they get on the cluetrain and move inland a few miles? Oh Hell no, Uncle Sugar was there ladling out the cash so they are industriously at work building it back yet again as we speak. The odds of a fourth total wipeout (wipeout as in part of the bank's vault and part of City Hall left standing) before hitting the century mark from number one is way better than fifty-fifty.

      Most of New Orleans is below sea level. Common sense would have dictated taking the opportunity offered by Katrina to relocate some of the more vulnerable sections. Did they? Oh Hell no.

      Go up the Mississippi river and count the towns that flood every decade or so and then count the ones that have finally got the hint and relocated. When river traffic was a town's lifeblood it made sense to take the risk, but nowadays?

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    34. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Um, no. When CO2 goes up by a factor of 20, it's partial pressure goes up by a factor of 20.

    35. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by jmorris42 · · Score: 1

      > Sure, humans will survive, but civilisation as we know it certainly won't.

      Oh bullcrap. We can build a city in a few years and if we had to abandon all of the coastal anthills and start over we would be able to build better ones this time. Most of Europe was flattened during WWII and look how fast they came back. Assuming AGW alarmists are right we would still have decades to calmly and slowly move to higher ground. Decades for farmers to shift their planting patterns.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    36. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 0

      Using your own reasoning, it is perfectly acceptable to kill off other species to keep humans around.

      We are just really clever apes. Who are you to say that we are more important than, say, the really clever octopods who will come after us?

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    37. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by element-o.p. · · Score: 1

      Well, I suppose this only applies to my opinions and perhaps to a small circle of friends around me, but, well, that fact that I am one of the humans makes humans a lot more important, IMHO.

      --
      MCSE? No, sir...I don't do Windows. Yes, I am an idealist. What's your point?
    38. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by dave420 · · Score: 2

      Wow. We can't build a city in a few years and have a seamless transition from one to the other. That is absolute lunacy to suggest. Most of Europe was not flattened, either. I have no idea what world you live in, but it certainly isn't this one.

    39. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 0

      A whole 800,000 years worth of data? Wow, that is a whole .02% of the Earth's history. Why I am sure we can base everything we know and do in regards to the climate on that vast knowledge. Just like we can make decisions about you and your future based on what you have done over the last 4 days.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    40. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      In other words, your own personal opinion. You, and I, are no more valuable than any other clever critter. We are just more clever than the others. This is not about what is best for the Earth, or nature, or other species. It is about what is best for humans, and a limited number of humans at that.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    41. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Given the current fiscal situation in the US, I hardly think relocating all coastal cities is a project they're looking forward to.

    42. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by NemoinSpace · · Score: 1

      take a breath windbag, your hot air alone is starting to make me believe in global warming.

    43. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by c6gunner · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The shit thing is, if the "correction" is disruptive enough, we may never get the chance to rebuild what we have now. There's only so much easily-accessible energy sitting around waiting for us to get it. If we deplete our oil reserves to low enough levels and then suffer a major global cataclysm, our descendants will be permanently stuck living an Amish lifestyle.

      Not that it matters much to us, here and now - I'll be long dead before anything like that happens. But I still feel some responsibility to try and keep our species moving forward.

    44. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by CheerfulMacFanboy · · Score: 1

      Yeah and when life was the most abundant on earth, it was between 4-7C warmer and the CO2 was in the 20 times as much as today.

      And dinosaurs larger much larger than your SUV roamed the lands, and the biggest mammal was a rodent somewhat bigger than your brain. So which role do you wanna play: the dino or the rodent?

      --
      Fandroids hate facts.
    45. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by kevinNCSU · · Score: 4, Insightful

      People have always believed that it's perfectly acceptable to kill off other species to keep humans around. Why do you think the Grizzley bear and wolf populations got so low?

      Who are you to say that we are more important than, say, the really clever octopods who will come after us?

      What a stupid question. I'm more important because I'm me and I want to live, and if that motherfucking octopod thinks he's going to take my place he better bring a whole bunch of bros and some serious weaponry otherwise he's ending up on my plate for dinner. I think a better question is what type of self hating species WOULDN'T do anything and everything in their power to survive? If you feel a deep rooted urge to jump into killer whale's mouths in order to save THEIR species then by all means do so before you spread your genes and hurt ours.

    46. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

      How much data would you prefer?
      How about a couple billion years?

      Although at that range, everything besides CO2 and changes in Orbit don't matter.

      http://greyfalcon.net/climate2

    47. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by element-o.p. · · Score: 1

      In other words, your own personal opinion.

      Well, yes. That is, after all, exactly what I said.

      You, and I, are no more valuable than any other clever critter. We are just more clever than the others.

      Which is just your own opinion. In my opinion, yes -- I, my wife, my daughter, my friends, etc., have a greater value (to me) than other critters on this earth. If you want to put yourself on a level playing field with a cockroach or a slime mold (or even a chimpanzee or dolphin), then knock yourself out. I humbly disagree, but you are certainly entitled to your own opinion.

      This is not about what is best for the Earth, or nature, or other species. It is about what is best for humans, and a limited number of humans at that.

      Well, yes. Since I don't think we have yet devised the destructive potential of a Dark Star-type planet buster bomb, and since the ecosystem even around Chernobyl has shown to be remarkable persistent, I rather doubt that human beings have the capability to "destroy" the earth yet. We may make a bit of a mess of it, but life tends to be remarkably resilient. So, yes, this whole debate is about whether or not we can affect the earth's climate to an extent that we no longer can survive here. That's not exactly news, so I don't really understand what point you are trying to make here.

      --
      MCSE? No, sir...I don't do Windows. Yes, I am an idealist. What's your point?
    48. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by TofuDog · · Score: 1

      Absolutely correct. This is not a localized phenomenon. From the southern CA mountains where I live, the Rockies, British Columbia and more. For a stark example, take a flight out of Anchorage, AK. You are likely to take off towards the south, over the Kenai peninsula. Look down and will you see 2.3 million acres of brown, the largest loss of forest to insects ever recorded in North America. I believe similar outbreaks are affecting Eurasia as well. Biologists who understand the cascading impacts inherent in ecological interactions don't spend much energy questioning the flaws in how weather reporting stations measure temperatures (particularly when results from satellite sensors and ocean buoys are congruent with those from ground stations). Next up: Malaria and/or any of a number of unforeseen consequences that directly impact human welfare.

    49. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by CapOblivious2010 · · Score: 1

      This is not about what is best for the Earth.

      Best for the Earth? What does that even mean? Does the planet itself care about any of this? If it did, it would probably be happy to get all this icky, troublesome "life" stuff off of it!

    50. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Chibi+Merrow · · Score: 1

      You know, my Grandfather lived in Cameron during Audrey. He (finally) listened to my Grandmother and left literally only a couple hours before the storm surge hit. When he went back, all that was left was a slab with two dinner plates on it. He took the hint, they lived in Lafayette for the rest of his life.

      I really think we should establish a time period, wherein if your property gets wiped out by the same natural disaster twice in that period you get your insurance money and then we condemn the property as not fit for permanent habitation, because this is getting ridiculous.

      --
      Maxim: People cannot follow directions.
      Increases in truth directly with the length of time spent explaining them
    51. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by RicktheBrick · · Score: 2

      I think you are too much of a pessimist. There are a lot of way we can use a lot less energy and still maintain our standard of living. For instance I believe with advancement in building techniques we will find that it is cheaper to build underground than it is to build above. This alone will decrease home use of energy by more than half. We will be a lot safer in those home too. If we could build our roads underground too we could easily have automobiles that drive themselves since they would not have to contend with either humans or animals. There is also a lot of new energy production methods that have not yet come to fruit. Fusion is just one. Are you saying that there is no way that we are ever going to solve that. How about space energy? Are we never going to have mirrors in space that beam down energy? Either the invention of a space elevator or a large rail gun could vastly help with that. Than there is fuel from plants. I read a study that states that we could get enough energy by using marginal lands growing certain plants without increasing the cost of food. I agree with that since farm land in my county in Michigan is a small per cent of the total land available. The reason that we have not already solved this problem is that we have not yet reached the point where we absolutely need to. Only when we are about to reach that point will the demand be great enough to put enough manpower into it.

    52. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by budgenator · · Score: 1

      In case you haven't noticed the only US state without snow this week is Florida.
      http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/, I'm sure that'll put a dent in those little beetles.
      you know even Phil Jones says there hasn't been any statistically significant warming for 15 years, and 15 years is half a climatic period.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    53. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by green1 · · Score: 1

      except that this isn't a failure of winter to be cold enough, or long enough, because those criteria have been met in those location despite "global warming" (or at least they haven't been any worse than "pre global warming"). It is instead a failure of forest management, specifically the fact that any time a fire starts in a forest we humans rush to put it out. Forest fires are a necessary and natural part of the forest eco-system. They eliminate problems such as this, and renew the forests, they happen naturally on a reasonably frequent basis.

      In fact the usual solution to pine beetle infestations is forest fires. Done now as controlled burns, but it provides the same role that a traditional forest fire would in eliminating the pest and renewing the forest.

      Not every issue on earth is caused by "global warming", there are many that actually are legitimately caused by humans.

    54. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      While it is a factor, it isn't the sole cause. The Canadian Government issued a ton of grants and a lot of material was published. From people I knew that worked directly on those papers, they said the general problem was global warming and warmer winters coupled with other factors as you have mentioned (forests of the same age, lack of fires, etc.).

      Here is a list of the publications:
      http://mpb.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/archive/projects/completed_e.html

      --
      Interesting.
    55. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by pspahn · · Score: 1

      I'm sure that'll put a dent in those little beetles.

      I sure hope that's sarcasm. It takes a lot more than snow to kill these beetles (if all it took was a little snow, an insect called Mountain Pine Beetle that lives in Canada and the Western US wouldn't be around, would it?). The temperature needs to get down to about -30F for a week or two to kill these things.

      Besides, it's nice and all that snow is in every state except Florida, but the first measurable snow here in Denver didn't occur until after Christmas, and the highs during December were regularly in the 50's and 60's F. Not exactly what I'd call a frigid winter, and in fact this is by far the warmest and driest winter I've ever seen in Colorado.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    56. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by pspahn · · Score: 1

      If warming is not a contributing factor, how can it be explained that this insect's range is growing?

      It is showing up at latitudes lower than previously common. If temperature wasn't a factor, they'd have been here a long time ago.

      The only thing the forest fire and mono-culture has contributed to is the extent of the devastation. Instead of a low percentage of trees being susceptible (because of species diversity, age diversity, etc.) all the trees are susceptible because they all are the same age and species (because of no fires).

      Overall, current MPB outbreaks are caused by both, warming and human determination to stagnate the forest.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    57. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Loki_666 · · Score: 1

      Well, the plants should be happy.

    58. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Isaac-1 · · Score: 1

      After being wiped out twice in the last 5 years, I don't think Cameron is coming back this time, almost all of the long term residents have moved away. The big thing that has driven the nail in its coffin are all the new state coastal building codes (requiring up to 8 feet of fill dirt to be brought in for houses in many locations), the effect is making these new replacement homes cost 5 to 10 times as more than the ones that were wiped off the map (even with government help financing) , and yet would still likely not do enough to keep the new houses standing when the next big storm hits. There will always be some industry there being at the mouth of a river, and there will be basic housing for the industrial workers, maybe even a gas station or two, but don't expect a community and all the little things that come together to make one, for the simple fact that common people can't afford to live there anymore and can't afford to commute from the nearest dry land not subject to these regulations 35 or so miles away down a narrow shoulderless 2 lane highway with water on either side.

    59. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by buback · · Score: 1

      Humans can survive in all of the harshest environments on this planet. Humans will be able to survive long after almost everything else has died.

      I envy those humans! What a live they'll live!

    60. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Isaac-1 · · Score: 1

      Ok, just a few points here, most of the people predicting a rise in sea level claim it will occur on a time scale of many decades or even centuries, with a worst case rise of about 180-200 feet, and many projections call for a fraction of that. For some places like southern Florida this will be very bad, but for many others like the U.S. west coast which has mountains within site of the ocean in many places it will hardly be noticed as the cities slowly crawl inland. Even Manhattan's famed central park is located more than a hundred feet above sea level, and the highest point on the island is at 265 ft.

    61. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We have tree-ring data, whose consistency has been (to put it mildly) unreliable on more recent timescales.

      We have ice-core data, from which any inference about CO2 concentration requires a couple of leaps of faith that haven't been adequately justified IMHO.

    62. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yea, I see a problems with that. Why should I have to change my habbits and pay more for crap because you want to protect your property values?

    63. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by jpapon · · Score: 1

      Given the current fiscal situation in the US, I hardly think relocating all coastal cities is a project they're looking forward to.

      Well it would certainly "Get America Back to Work". Sounds like the perfect Keynesian project to me!

      --
      -- Let us endeavor so to live that when we pass even the undertaker shall be sorry. -- M. Twain
    64. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by mcvos · · Score: 1

      Go up the Mississippi river and count the towns that flood every decade or so and then count the ones that have finally got the hint and relocated. When river traffic was a town's lifeblood it made sense to take the risk, but nowadays?

      I'm not too familiar with the Mississippi or New Orleans, but a lot of trade still happens by river. There can still be very good reasons to live below sea level. The richest parts of Netherland lies below sea level. It has fertile soil, major rivers, important traffic routes, direct access to the sea. It's good living here.

      The big difference with the Mississippi, Bangladesh, Queensland, etc, is that we have decided that we don't want more than one major flood every 10,000 years, and have built massive flood protections all over the place, and we continue investing in it. That makes this economically important area safe to live. It costs money of course, but it's easily worth it. It might not be worth it for small towns on the Mississippi that flood every couple of years, though.

    65. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by mcvos · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately, Keynes isn't as popular as he used to be.

    66. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      The octopods don't have bring an army. They just have to wait for us to die out, like we are going to do.

      Humans are not doing "anything and everything in their power to survive". That would involve killing off or preventing the births of billions of humans instead of letting nature or the climate do it.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    67. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      Yes, a couple of billion. Even 1 billion. Hell half a billion is still significant.

      A couple of hundred or even a couple of hundred thousand years just isn't a significant time frame on geological scales.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    68. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      Then, why do environmentalists claim they are doing all this for the Earth? That is all I hear "Save the planet! Save the Earth!" Bah. It is really "Save me in a manner that doesn't involve me making major changes to my life even thought we really have no idea what we are doing!"

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    69. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      I guess it is a good thing we can get started now and have hundreds of years to deal with it, now isn't it?

      And, I really don't care about the coastal cities and I live in one.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    70. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by aardwolf64 · · Score: 1

      Yes, that's the way to survive... Kill everyone off. :-|

    71. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      life != species.

      a lot of species can die, and a lot more can come in their places that are better adapted to CO2.

      Interesting. Do you have any evidence of new species coming about in the last couple hundred years? New as in new, recent species, not new as in new to be found.

    72. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Grizzley9 · · Score: 1

      The shit thing is, if the "correction" is disruptive enough, we may never get the chance to rebuild what we have now. There's only so much easily-accessible energy sitting around waiting for us to get it. If we deplete our oil reserves to low enough levels and then suffer a major global cataclysm, our descendants will be permanently stuck living an Amish lifestyle.

      Many could argue the Amish-type lifestyle would lead us to better human relations and sense of community among everyone as well as reduce our wasteful use of resources.

      Not that it matters much to us, here and now - I'll be long dead before anything like that happens. But I still feel some responsibility to try and keep our species moving forward.

      Moving forward? To what exactly?

    73. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by DavidTC · · Score: 1

      So, yes, this whole debate is about whether or not we can affect the earth's climate to an extent that we no longer can survive here.

      And even if we're not the most important species on the earth, um, climate change tends to, you know, kill other animals also.

      There's no logical reason that us undoing something we did to the earth, which will kill us and a bunch of other life, could ever be considered us claiming we're 'the most important species'. This is an argument made by total morons who want to look like they're contributing to the conversation.

      We need a list of threads posted somewhere that are automatically redundant. Talking about how we can't really 'destroy' the earth (When of course no one has suggested we can) when talking about climate change would be near the top of that list.

      --
      If corporations are people, aren't stockholders guilty of slavery?
    74. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are being rather specist and frankly this post has incited me to want to kill a crocodile.

    75. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by budgenator · · Score: 1

      OK you said:

      "Their historic range has grown because a lack of an adequately lengthy freeze during the winter is allowing them to live longer. "

      then I said :

      "In case you haven't noticed the only US state without snow this week is Florida.
      http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/ [noaa.gov], I'm sure that'll put a dent in those little beetles."

      and you followed with

      "an insect called Mountain Pine Beetle that lives in Canada and the Western US wouldn't be around, would it?). The temperature needs to get down to about -30F for a week or two to kill these things. "

      now I'm going out on a limb here but if it takes -30F for a while to kill these little suckers, and it has to be that for a week or two, and there range is the forests of western North America from Mexico to central British Columbia. ; in a good sized chunk of their range, the beetles have never been killed due to low temperatures since the last iceage.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    76. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      The beetles have never been killed due to low temperatures since the last iceage

      Which is why the species still exists...?

      Also notice that the ranges of the trees they inhabit are predomimately more northern where they are denser, where the problem is much more widespread (BC, AB, WA, OR). Trees like Ponderosa species live in little islands (where they extend southward to Mexico).

      The range isn't growing southward, but northward (i.e. towards the Canadian boreal forest, which is very dense, mostly pine and would be a huge problem), where it used to be colder, longer - on average.

      (And as we've both seemingly agreed on, there are other factors which I mention previously).

      --
      Interesting.
    77. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Alaska+Jack · · Score: 1

      Same in most of southcentral Alaska. Another commenter references Anchorage. Do you know how often it gets down to -30 in Anchorage? Basically, never.

          - AJ

    78. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by budgenator · · Score: 1

      On a whim I looked up Anchorage's weather and Port Huron MI and your 17 to -4F and we are 14 F right now. 19 degrees of latitude between us and the temperature is about the same. Around here the weather men add "and it's 10 degrees warmer by the water" right now, I bet you get the same.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    79. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Alaska+Jack · · Score: 1

      The climate in Southcentral Alaska is moderated by the Japan Current, a movement of warm water that rotates up from the eastern pacific.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_current

      Don't get me wrong, interior Alaska is a complete bitch in winter. But southcentral isn't really that bad.

      I will say, though, that when it gets down to around zero here, the extra humidity in the ocean air can make it feel a lot colder. Add in a good breeze and it can feel respectably brutal.

          - aj

    80. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 1

      Yeah and when life was the most abundant on earth, it was between 4-7C warmer and the CO2 was in the 20 times as much as today.

      You welcome your new tyrannosauroid overloards, I suspect? Sure, "life" will do fine in 5 million years (unless we put on other pressures). The main problem for humans is the rapid change from a relatively stable state that has persisted through most of human history.

      --

      Stephan

    81. Re:"Since people have been keeping records" by Reservoir+Penguin · · Score: 1

      That's not what he is saying. If through some disruptive event we go back to the pre-industrial age this time there would not be enough easily accessible resources like coal and oil to build up again. It's all used up, so there won't be another opportunity for industrial age for the next billion+ years. Can't jump straight to fusion from fishing and masonry.

      --
      US-UK-Israel: The real Axis of Evil
  3. Decadal count is more important by Amorymeltzer · · Score: 4, Informative

    NASA also put out a piece comparing different findings by different organizations, explaining the differences and why they aren't a big deal. The articles also states that year-to-year measures aren't particularly useful - not only are 2010 and 2005 very close, but the next six are also very similar to each other - but looking at it decade by decade (i.e. a larger sample size) gives far more meaning:

    On that time scale, the three records are unequivocal: the last decade has been the warmest on record. “It’s not particularly important whether 2010, 2005, or 1998 was the hottest year on record,” said Hansen. "It is the underlying trend that is important."

    --
    I live in constant fear of the Coming of the Red Spiders.
    1. Re:Decadal count is more important by operagost · · Score: 0, Troll

      The trend is flat since 1998.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    2. Re:Decadal count is more important by rwa2 · · Score: 2

      Are averages even the best measure?

      Sure, so we're getting more energy from the sun. Which means more heat, which makes air rise, and suck in cold air from the polar regions.

      Thus, we have the polar regions rapidly heating up in not-so-statistically-insignificant terms of 5 - 10 degrees. And record unseasonably cold and hot flashes in the temperate regions in between.

      There must be some measure other than an averaged thermometer readings that is actually meaningful in this context. Insert joke about hospital with a bunch of people with fevers and a bunch of dead people with an average temperature of 96.6F

    3. Re:Decadal count is more important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The trend is flat since 1998.

      And the trend is warming since 2am this morning. What is the significance of 1998? Is there some explanation for what changed (did we successfully end global warming that year and then forgot about it?), or is the "trend" since then just variation in the bigger picture (an upward trend)? On a decade scale, the trend is upward.

    4. Re:Decadal count is more important by Bemopolis · · Score: 1

      And Generalissismo Francisco Franco is still dead. Your point?

      --
      "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
    5. Re:Decadal count is more important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    6. Re:Decadal count is more important by mcmonkey · · Score: 1

      And Generalissismo Francisco Franco is still dead. Your point?

      The point is, it's getting hot in here.

    7. Re:Decadal count is more important by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 5, Informative

      The trend is flat since 1998.

      No it's not. 1998 was an outlier, as anyone with more than half a brain can tell by looking at the data. By definition, trends do not rely on outliers.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    8. Re:Decadal count is more important by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      If you believe Fox News lies.

    9. Re:Decadal count is more important by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2

      How does the last decade compare to the last 10 million decades? That covers the last 2.5% of Terra's history.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    10. Re:Decadal count is more important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We're getting more energy from the sun?... I thought the measurements from satellites since the '80s showed no significant change.

    11. Re:Decadal count is more important by Troed · · Score: 0

      The sun was more active during the latter half of the 20th century than ever before in recorded history

      The sun is currently more quiet than it has been for several hundred years

      Feel free to pick any one of several suggested ways for changes in the sun to affect earth. There are quite a few.

    12. Re:Decadal count is more important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      suggested ways for changes in the sun to affect earth

      is the sun causing global warming?. Short answer: No.

    13. Re:Decadal count is more important by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      CO2 levels are probably the highest they've been in 8 million decades. Does that help?

    14. Re:Decadal count is more important by SDF-7 · · Score: 1

      First I'd heard that Earth is 8 billion years old, much less that CO2 levels were lower than before plant life started liberating the oxygen. (And the time of the dinosaurs, etc.)

    15. Re:Decadal count is more important by spike+hay · · Score: 2

      8 million decades is 80 million years dum-dum. 10^6*10=10^7 (a decade is 10 years). Observe that a billion years is 10^9.

      It's probably not back that far, but almost certainly millions of years (from when the continents weren't where they are now, causing the climate to be different) and certainly we have the highest CO2 in 400,000 years. If you look at a graph of CO2, there are characteristic undulations corresponding to glacial periods and interglacials (CO2 is a strong positive feedback with Milankovich cycles), with a sharp spike starting at the industrial revolution.

      One notable big event about 42 MYA if I recall right was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. A large pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere caused a large spike in temperature. Interestingly, the rate of CO2 release then was vastly slower than what we are doing currently.

      However, it's completely academic whether this current climate change is unprecendented or not. What matters is that it can be very damaging and we are causing it, and can prevent further damage if we want.

      --
      If you don't understand any of my sayings, come to me in private and I shall take you in my German mouth.
    16. Re:Decadal count is more important by SDF-7 · · Score: 1

      Mea culpa. Or -- don't do math just before sleep, it doesn't work out well. Brain switched decades to millenia in there somewhere. I'll accept the dum-dum for that one, certainly -- though an option to mod your own comments "danged stupid, don't look at this" would be nice right now.

      I'd make a comment that more than that matters (does the potential damage outweigh the cost of what's needed to prevent damage, or are we better off just dealing with the damage in a longer scale transition?) -- but given the egregious stupidity above, I should shut up while I'm behind. Thank you for only mocking slightly.

    17. Re:Decadal count is more important by Troed · · Score: 1

      Yes, and that short answer is scientifically unsound since it only takes TSI into account. That's only one of many ways the sun affects the earth, and was the whole reason for my previous post.

    18. Re:Decadal count is more important by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      And, that is a lie. Maybe you should go get some facts before spouting off.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    19. Re:Decadal count is more important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And anyone with a full brain would know that if 1998 is an outlier, so is 2010.

    20. Re:Decadal count is more important by rwa2 · · Score: 1

      Hmm, well, what I meant is that we're getting more energy from the sun because we're not radiating as much of it back into space. That is how greenhouse gases are supposed to work, right? :P

      It would be neat to see some sort of measurement of atmospheric energy, though of course that is harder to come by. But even lacking historical data at altitude and at sea, we'd be looking for regional wind patterns, particularly those that balance warm areas with cold areas. We've seen the polar regions heat up tremendously over the past few decades to compensate for what's going on, which kinda attributes a lot to Earth's ability to self-regulate and buffer changes. But if you remember the way buffer solutions act in Chemistry, once they tip out of equilibrium, they make a pretty rapid adjustment to the temperature / pH they would have been at had there been no buffering effect.

    21. Re:Decadal count is more important by CheerfulMacFanboy · · Score: 1

      Are averages even the best measure?

      Sure, so we're getting more energy from the sun. Which means more heat, which makes air rise, and suck in cold air from the polar regions.

      Thus, we have the polar regions rapidly heating up in not-so-statistically-insignificant terms of 5 - 10 degrees. And record unseasonably cold and hot flashes in the temperate regions in between.

      There must be some measure other than an averaged thermometer readings that is actually meaningful in this context. Insert joke about hospital with a bunch of people with fevers and a bunch of dead people with an average temperature of 96.6F

      Of course the actual measurements are that of the people with fever most have a slightly higher fever than they had x years ago, and the dead people have a much higher temperature than dead people x years ago. Bringing the average temp up compared to x years ago.

      --
      Fandroids hate facts.
    22. Re:Decadal count is more important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You can't just pick any arbitrary number that you like and draw a straight line from then to now. That's not how statistics works.

  4. urbanization by andoman2000 · · Score: 0

    Couldn't have anything to do with the urbanization that occurred between 1880 and 2011 could it?

    1. Re:urbanization by TheEyes · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Couldn't have anything to do with the urbanization that occurred between 1880 and 2011 could it?

      If by "urbanization" you mean "unprecedented emission of greenhouse gases combined with massive deforestation" then yes, that's pretty well supported by theory and observation. If by "urbanization" you mean "the false rumor that the presence of concrete magically makes thermometers in the ocean and in space register higher temperatures" then no, it couldn't

    2. Re:urbanization by andoman2000 · · Score: 0

      No I mean the weather stations in the USA went from being in farm fields to paved parking lots. It increases the recorded heat significantly, if you don't think so go walk on the asphalt barefoot on a 90 degree day.

    3. Re:urbanization by izomiac · · Score: 1

      61,000 square miles of roads and parking lots have been paved in the US. That's 1.6% of the total area, including Alaska, and not counting rooftops and such. Somehow, I suspect that this global trend might have an effect on albedo...

      But I guess that's just magical thinking. Anthropogenic CO2 is solely to blame for climate change, and simply decreasing the rate of CO2 emissions to historic levels (i.e. where pCO2 will still be increasing) will stop the positive feedback loops that caused the cyclic nature of climate in Earth's history.

    4. Re:urbanization by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "the false rumor that the presence of concrete magically makes thermometers in the ocean and in space register higher temperatures" then no, it couldn't

      Not many of either in 1880.

      Is it crazy night here or something?

    5. Re:urbanization by pastafazou · · Score: 1

      Asphalt and asphalt shingles

    6. Re:urbanization by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      In short, no. That doesn't change Earth's albedo nearly as much as you might think, and changing Earth's albedo doesn't affect the temperature by much.

  5. In Cities where records are kept by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Warmest on record where they keep the thermometers over blacktop as well. LOL Where is global warming when we need it. Snow in every state except Florida.

    1. Re:In Cities where records are kept by TheEyes · · Score: 2

      Warmest on record where they keep the thermometers over blacktop as well. LOL Where is global warming when we need it. Snow in every state except Florida.

      And the summer was ridiculously hot, yes. Anyone who thinks that global warming means that temperatures will become uniformly higher, or less chaotic, is either dreaming or trolling.

      Prepare yourself. Global warming actually means stronger hurricanes, drier dry spells, bigger floods, and more chaotic weather all around.

    2. Re:In Cities where records are kept by andoman2000 · · Score: 0

      more snow, your wife/girlfriend's periods will last longer, you might grow fangs, zombies will try to eat your brains, Obama will lower taxes, monster trucks might become solar powered, and you're a dumb ass if you think you can blame every conceivable possibility on global warming.

    3. Re:In Cities where records are kept by shadow349 · · Score: 1

      Global warming actually means stronger hurricanes

      Right, which explains why the Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy index is the lowest in three decades.

      Wait, what?

      Maybe one of these days you warmistas will finally admit that you have no idea how man-made inputs ultimately affect the climate.

    4. Re:In Cities where records are kept by dadelbunts · · Score: 1

      I love these people that ramble on about how its snowing all across the US. That maybe so but here in miami it has been 80 degrees the last week and i dont think we have had more than like 5 days where it was below 40 in the past 2 months. This has been one of the hottest winters that i can remember in the 18+ years living here.

    5. Re:In Cities where records are kept by marcuz · · Score: 1

      Global warming is so last year. Global cooling is the next big thing (with which they'll rob us all) :D But lets see what they'll do - with global cooling it might be hard to rationalize important agenda like water and food scarcity which they desperatly need so they can gain more power wordwide. however - its smart to call it climate change these days...

  6. When earths go bad!!! by emt377 · · Score: 5, Funny

    It gets hot, steamy, wet and wild!!!

    1. Re:When earths go bad!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Like in Brisbane where I am. Hot, muggy, destroyed.

    2. Re:When earths go bad!!! by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      Planetary Action 8: Centripetal Motion
      (All celestial bodies depicted are over 4.5 billion years of age)

      --
      Interesting.
    3. Re:When earths go bad!!! by sourcerror · · Score: 1

      Giant centipedes in my ecosystem? More likely than you think!

  7. Where?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Doesn't seem like that, here in Norway, with our 8 degrees celcius below average in December! How about sending a little of that warmth up north?

    1. Re:Where?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're aware that one of the more worrisome implications of global warming is the reduced salt concentration in the water slowing the Atlantic currents sending equatorial warmth your way, yes?

    2. Re:Where?? by CptNerd · · Score: 1

      Which is supposedly offset by the warmer air, which is causing all permafrost in the Arctic to melt, or at least the Canadian, Siberian, and Alaskan Arctic. Since the Atlantic currents are going to shut down, and stop "sending equatorial warmth", does that mean the glaciers will stop retreating?

      --
      By the taping of my glasses, something geeky this way passes
    3. Re:Where?? by mug+funky · · Score: 1

      Equatorial? in Norway? Slartibartfast would have a fit!

    4. Re:Where?? by pspahn · · Score: 1

      You've come across the reason ice ages follow periods of rapid warming.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    5. Re:Where?? by BlueScreenO'Life · · Score: 1

      December was really cold in places in the Northern Hemisphere and blazing hot in places in the Southern Hemisphere.

    6. Re:Where?? by CptNerd · · Score: 1

      But how can the ice form and last through the summer, when the summers are too warm for ice to form and last now? Especially in Canada and SIberia, where the Atlantic current doesn't flow? If it's too warm for ice to last from season to season, then glaciers can't grow, and so an "ice age" can't happen.

      --
      By the taping of my glasses, something geeky this way passes
    7. Re:Where?? by green1 · · Score: 1

      Regardless of whether "global warming" exists or not, or what causes it, or anything else, I had a wonderful laugh while visiting the Columbia Icefields.

      They have a sign up talking about how the glacier is shrinking, and how this is a horribly bad thing because many people down stream from it rely on the water coming from the glacier. My first thought was "and just how do they expect to get water from it if it DOESN'T shrink??"

    8. Re:Where?? by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      Because if it's shrinking, they mean year after year. As in, you get 1000 m^3 of water the first year when summer comes around and there's melt. The next year, 800 m^3, etc.

      Glad you asked the question and weren't misled by interpreting the language incorrectly.

      --
      Interesting.
    9. Re:Where?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which word of the phrase "global" are you struggling with?

    10. Re:Where?? by green1 · · Score: 1

      the water flow is not shrinking, and they were very definitely NOT talking about the amount of water coming off the glacier.

      Their concern was specifically that people would be ok, until we ran out of ice, and then there would be no more water to flow downstream.

      Problem is, if the glacier was GROWING (or even staying the same) they ALREADY wouldn't have water downstream from it.

      So they are asking for the glacier to stop shrinking, but to keep melting and therefor providing water. You can't have it both ways, that's just not how physics works!

  8. Re:Skimpy data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    it's skimpy data because you're not reading the actual study, you're reading an article that's talking about the study. say what you want about whether there should have been a link to those numbers or if they should have been given, but you can't expect every article that's focusing on a specific point of the study to include every single data point from the study as well. That would be extremely ridiculous. Don't fault an article for not giving you unnecessary details. It's an article about a study, not the study itself. I'm unsure about the actual study, but given that they're comparing recorded data and not extrapolated data, I'm fairly certain your accusations don't hold water.

  9. Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    You think man can destroy the earth? What intoxicating vanity. Let me tell you about our planet. Earth is four-and-a-half-billion-years-old. There's been life on it for nearly that long, 3.8 billion years. Bacteria first; later the first multicellular life, then the complex creatures in the sea, on the land.

    ...

    When oxygen was first produced as a waste product by certain plant cells some three billion years ago, it created a crisis for all other life on earth. Those plants were polluting the environment, exhaling a lethal gas. Earth eventually had an atmosphere incompatible with life. Nevertheless, life on earth took care of itself. In the thinking of the human being a hundred years is a long time.

    A hundred years ago we didn't have cars, airplanes, computers or vaccines. It was a whole different world, but to the earth, a hundred years is nothing. A million years is nothing. This planet lives and breathes on a much vaster scale. We can't imagine its slow and powerful rhythms, and we haven't got the humility to try. We've been residents here for the blink of an eye. If we're gone tomorrow, the earth will not miss us.

    --Michael Crichton, Prologue to Jurassic Park, 1990

    1. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by h4rr4r · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Who gives a shit about that?

      What I care about is are we hurting our own chances of living here?

      Oh and stop quoting that nut case.

    2. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by mibe · · Score: 2

      Man can surely destroy man though.

    3. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by goodmanj · · Score: 2

      This is true. Anyone who tells you anthropogenic climate change means the end of the world is an idiot -- and I say that as a climate scientist.

      However, many people including Crichton go on to conclude that human influence on climate is irrelevant and negligible. This is the logical equivalent of saying that since sticking your hand in a bucket of lye probably won't kill you, it's perfectly safe to go ahead and do it on a regular basis.

    4. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by mswhippingboy · · Score: 1

      He stole this crap from George Carlin http://gospelofreason.com/2007/05/24/george-carlin-the-planet-is-fine.

      The difference that he missed however, was that George was being his (typical) sarcastic self.

      --
      Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
    5. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Aaah yes, noted scientist Professor Dr. Dr. Crichton. Guess what - a large meteor impact doesn't take 100 years, and the Earth sure as fuck would feel that.

    6. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      You think man can destroy the earth? What intoxicating vanity.

      No, but I'd bet you dollars to donuts that man can destroy man.

      BTW, Michael Crichton was an ignorant fool. And that's not speaking ill of the dead. For him, that's a compliment.

    7. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by ZFox · · Score: 1

      When did Carlin say that? The earliest I could find was a stand-up in 1992. Jurassic Park was published 1990.

    8. Re:Prologue to Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton by mswhippingboy · · Score: 1

      First, my comment was tongue-in-cheek - I like Crichton's stuff and seriously doubt he actually stole it.

      From what I can tell, Carlin first performed a shorter version of his "The Planet is fine, the people are f^cked" in 1990, however he expanded it into a full skit for his 1992 HBO special.

      --
      Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
  10. Re:"And it's a tragedy we can't" -- Trenberth by BasilBrush · · Score: 2

    Where is the heat going???! The point is not enough of it *IS* going.

    No detectable change in weather or climate? Where the fuck are you living? Not Australia right now for a start.

  11. Also by Barrinmw · · Score: 1

    It was the wettest year on record. There you have it folks, Global Warming is an answer to our Fresh Water needs.

    1. Re:Also by Monkeedude1212 · · Score: 1

      Just like Master Chief is the answer to all the Floods.

    2. Re:Also by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It was the wettest year on record. There you have it folks, Global Warming is an answer to our Fresh Water needs.

      Unless you're drowning in it.

    3. Re:Also by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      It was the wettest year on record.

      Yeah, that's why we had all the snow that had the deniers on full volume. Some people don't seem to understand that more snow in the winter might merely mean "wetter" rather than "colder".

      Ironic that it was a record-warm year, after all the shills talking about how the weather disproved global warming.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    4. Re:Also by Barrinmw · · Score: 1

      I am just hoping that global warming will allow our earth to sustain a larger population via more fresh water and more crops.

    5. Re:Also by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      I am just hoping that global warming will allow our earth to sustain a larger population via more fresh water and more crops.

      I think they're expecting more rain in some places and less in others.

      The US intelligence community identifies the dislocations resulting from climate change as one of the top security threats for this century.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    6. Re:Also by Barrinmw · · Score: 1

      I dunno, Canada has lots of land that isn't being used.

    7. Re:Also by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And NASA also mentioned one of their top priorities is Muslim relations. Do you see how politics keeps getting interjected into supposedly non-political arenas?

  12. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Spad · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Your house is not the world. Sometimes it snows over your house, but that doesn't mean it's snowing over my house. It might even be sunny over my house.

    Frankly you'd have to be a special kind of stupid to claim that global temperature averages aren't on the increase. That it's all our fault and we're all going to die? I'm still waiting to be convinced.

  13. Re:Utter utter rubbish by BasilBrush · · Score: 0

    Luckily few people without some kind of vested interest in this believes a word of this any more.
    Frankly you'd have to be a special kind of stupid to after so many years and no evidence whatsoever.

    You'd have to be an absolute fucking imbecile to say there is no evidence whatsoever.

  14. Yeah, but... by W0lfRaven · · Score: 4, Informative

    Here's the temperature plotted over the last 32 years http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/06/global-temperature-trend-upate not as dramatic as you might think.

    1. Re:Yeah, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And if you extrapolate out a bit you can see why it's so friggin cold right now. The temperatures have started dropping.

      That's not to say it won't go back up but for the moment that explains the current cold sweeping the northern hemisphere.

    2. Re:Yeah, but... by Kenja · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Looks pretty dramatic and alarming to me, about a +0.4c average increase across the time frame.

      --

      "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
    3. Re:Yeah, but... by St.Creed · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Type "global warming" into Wolfram Alpha and limit the graphic to 100 years, 50 years and 10 years. You get an increase of 0.7C, 1.44C and somewhere between -0.8 and +0.6C. Depending on your starting point, the trend may be misleading. The one with a range of 500 years and 100 years are pretty alarming though.

      Also, people massively tend to underestimate the amount of energy to warm up an entire planetary atmosphere by this amount. 0.4C looks small, until you calculate the amount of energy necessary to heat up an *entire planet*. It's like a massive juggernaut - once it rolls, it's going to take a lot to stop it.

      --
      Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)
    4. Re:Yeah, but... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      That is hugely dramatic. Seriously, learn to understand.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    5. Re:Yeah, but... by digsbo · · Score: 1

      If it's a long term trend that will continue, yes. If it's a short term trend that may soon reverse, no.

    6. Re:Yeah, but... by alexhs · · Score: 1

      Also, people massively tend to underestimate the amount of energy to warm up an entire planetary atmosphere by this amount. 0.4C looks small, until you calculate the amount of energy necessary to heat up an *entire planet*.

      While I agree with the remaining of your post, I'm not convinced by this. The night removes many degrees from the atmosphere. Do not underestimate the massive amount of energy provided by the sun ;-) . I would rather point to oceans storing that energy... And the Wikipedia seems to agree :

      The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing.

      --
      I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of killer sig, which this margin is too narrow to contain.
    7. Re:Yeah, but... by pspahn · · Score: 1

      Sure hasn't been cold in Denver. I wore shorts and sandals for most of November and December. Seems like it was in the 60's (and even 70's) until right after Christmas.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    8. Re:Yeah, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The key, as always, is reference. In the seventies they were talking about the great global cooling. The start point of the data is 1979. It is entirely possible that the data starts at a relatively cool year, in a relatively cool period, and progresses from there. The same can be said, some would say obviously, about all global temperature data, especially since the records started being kept as the Earth slowly recovered from a tiny ice age.

      Even if that is not true, maybe reason.com chose that year as a start point because it showed the least change. Or the most. If you are reading slashdot, you should be able to do the high-school statistics that all these stupid graphs are based on. That includes the 'big time' climate dudes, who just take a large amount of temperature data and play with it. If you could get said data in an excel file, you too could come up with running averages graphs. The point of educating people is to de-mystify the showy crap shady people use to get you to believe what they want, typically for the gain of themselves personally or at the least their little ideology.

    9. Re:Yeah, but... by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      Do you have any idea the shear amount of energy it takes to raise the planet wide temperature by .4C? It makes a CAT5 hurricane look like a gnat fart.

      That amount of temperature increase over that short of a time period IS dramatic.

      --
      ~X~
    10. Re:Yeah, but... by _xen · · Score: 1

      Here's the temperature plotted over the last 32 years

      Why 32 years? If you want it to look less dramatic still just use the last 15, or even better 13, years.

      Whatever you do, DO NOT let anyone see a plot for the entire instrumental record. It will just scare them! Remember information is harmful to ordinary people. And as far as those proxy reconstructions that go back thousands and tens of thousands of years ... we must do everything in our power to discredit them, no matter what the cost!

    11. Re:Yeah, but... by Twanfox · · Score: 2

      Personally, I'd be concerned with what happens when all the permafrost and polar ice/glaciers melt. Have you seen the temperature graph of a glass of melting ice water? While everything is frozen, the temp rises with the energy input. When you hit the melting point, the temperature rises very little for the energy input, as all that energy is going into phase changing ice into water. Once that ice is all melted, though, the temperature rise returns to mirror that of the pre-melting glass, quickly matching the energy input.

      So.. we have lots of ice, less as years go by. We have slowly rising temps per year on average. What happens after we lose all that ice? 2-3 degree rises per year? Sounds a bit more disturbing that way.

    12. Re:Yeah, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would be nice to see this graph beside a plot of the total volume of exposed worldwide concrete.

    13. Re:Yeah, but... by St.Creed · · Score: 1

      Good point, and you're right.

      However, warming up the oceans sounds even worse to me. Heating up air would probably require less energy than heating up large masses of water, considering the density of both. So if the oceans warm up, it means even more energy than I thought is entering the system. That can't be good.

      --
      Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)
    14. Re:Yeah, but... by St.Creed · · Score: 2

      If you want disturbing, consider the melting of subsurface methane-ice concentrates. Methane is an excellent greenhouse gas, and a lot of methane is stored in ice. Once that melts, you could have a situation where more and more methane gets into the air, leading to more and more ice melting, until we run out of ice. But by then, we could be in a huge amount of trouble in a very short timeperiod, and not much you can do about it either.

      Prevention is half the cure for some ills, but in this case it could well be the entirety of the cure.

      --
      Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)
    15. Re:Yeah, but... by KhabaLox · · Score: 1

      not as dramatic as you might think.

      Only because of the scale of the y-axis.

      --
      Ceci n'est pas un sig.
  15. Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 1, Insightful
    Have any of you noticed that every year they use a different set of reporting stations to "show" that it's the hottest year? That means that comparing the numbers from one year with those from another is exactly like comparing apples and oranges. There's no way you can get any meaningful information out of what they're doing. It's not good science, it's not even good pseudo-science, but it's good propaganda and, I'm beginning to believe, that's all this whole thing is about: propaganda by zealots who are determined to make converts whether the facts support their position or not.

    Mods, before you mod me down simply because you don't like what I have to say, consider this: I have a friend with, among other things, a Masters in Statistical Inference. I ran this idea past him, recently, and he agreed. I'm not just throwing mud, or trying to confuse the issue, I'm pointing out a legitimate flaw in their methodology.

    --
    Good, inexpensive web hosting
    1. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by RightwingNutjob · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I don't have a master's in statistical inference, just a plain old BS in engineering. And even I can tell that all of this "warmest year on record" business is just people getting worked up about short timescale noise in a signal with periodicity on the order of 400? 11,000? 400,000? years.

      Maybe it is the warmest year on record. So what? Keep records for long enough and you'll wind up with a coldest year too.

    2. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by MobyDisk · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Have any of you noticed that every year they use a different set of reporting stations to "show" that it's the hottest year?

      I haven't noticed that. It isn't mentioned in the article. All it says is:

      The analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world...

      You make it sound like they chose the 5 hottest stations. Logically, they should take some statistical function of all the stations. It seems really unlikely that they are cherry picking stations to produce a result. NASA is a research organization.

      P.S. If you get modded down, it will be because you made an outlandish accusation that NASA is falsifying evidence, with no evidence of your own. If what you say is true, that would be quite a scandal. I'd love to see someone point out what stations they are using and ask them why they are doing it that way.

    3. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by TheSeventh · · Score: 2

      So, are you saying the polar ice caps aren't melting? And how do reporting stations matter when satellites are measuring the temperature? Earth gets warmer, ice caps melt, coastal areas flood. After this does it matter what caused it? Or should we maybe worry about what can be done about it?

      --
      Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
    4. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a simpler observation that sea ice and glaciers -- which integrate temperature change and precipitation change over a far longer timescale -- have retreated world-wide on average for many years. As the article points out, interpreting the exact differences year-to-year is hard from temperature data, and the issues you've listed are part of the challenge of measuring it precisely, but the long-term trend is freaking obvious. There is no particular scientific value in recognizing a "record year", but average it over a decade and the pattern from the temperatures are also obvious.

      It's not simply the quirks of statistics if profound physical changes are actually seen on the ground, and they are.

    5. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 1, Insightful

      No, I'm not. I'm saying that I suspect the methodology of this study. I'm also not, by any means, convinced that a warmer climate wouldn't be a Good Thing in and of itself and I'm a tad skeptical about claims of sea level rising that much. (Note: I'm not saying they won't, just that I'm dubious.) Of course, I'm not only not a climate scientist, I don't play one on TV, Slashdot or anywhere else for that matter, so feel free to ignore my opinion if you want to.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    6. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by wytcld · · Score: 2

      every year they use a different set of reporting stations to "show" that it's the hottest year

      Since you present no evidence, and state neither who "they" are or what the "different sets of reporting stations" are or what publications you found from "them" that list these different sets of reporting stations I can tentatively conclude that you are either paranoid or a liar. I have a friend with a Doctorate in Psychology I ran this by, and she agreed.

      When you state that "every year" they "'show' that it's the hottest year," that flies against the fact that the climate scientists I follow don't make the claim each year that it's the hottest year. So again, if you aren't going to document strong claims like this, don't make them.

      --
      "with their freedom lost all virtue lose" - Milton
    7. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Pharmboy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Maybe it is the warmest year on record. So what? Keep records for long enough and you'll wind up with a coldest year too.

      That is the point that gets me. I don't doubt that dumping CO2 into the atmosphere raised the temp a little, but history is flooded with examples of rising temps, lower temps, higher CO2, lower CO2, and I don't quite see how what we are doing rises above being background noise, in the larger picture.

      That said, I do like cars that pollute less, developing better technologies that use less energy or pollute less, but not because of global warming. I just like to breath, drink water, fish, and want to have a national energy policy that isn't dependent on people half way around the globe. If were were making decisions based on those issues, it would make more sense as those are issues we can all agree on and benefit from, and don't require drastic, job killing measures, nor as heated of a debate.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    8. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 1

      Have any of you noticed that every year they use a different set of reporting stations to "show" that it's the hottest year?

      Perhaps if that were actually happening, we'd have noticed it. Since that's not what's happening, the only people who have "noticed" it are la-la-la-I-can't-hear-you crowd like you who will happily "notice" anything that confirms their existing biases, even if they have to make it up.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    9. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by geekoid · · Score: 1

      "I don't have a master's in statistical inference,"

      and yet, it didn't stop you from spouting off your ignorance.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    10. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by dave420 · · Score: 3, Informative

      No, they're talking about the thousands of years of proxy data that's available, that shows a significant increase in global temperatures in the last 100-200 years, with last year being tied with 2005 as the hottest. BS indeed.

    11. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by RightwingNutjob · · Score: 1

      But if you look at the tens of thousands of years of proxy data that's also available, suddenly it's not the warmest.

      Too many unknown unknowns to make firm conclusions about any superlatives.

    12. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by DeadCatX2 · · Score: 2

      Have any of you noticed that every year they use a different set of reporting stations to "show" that it's the hottest year?

      [citation needed]

      --
      :(){ :|:& };:
    13. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can you point me to this evidence? Thanks.

    14. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      My friend with the Masters also has a Doctorate in Psychology and another Doctorate in Poly Sci. He doesn't think I'm either a liar or paranoid. He's also asked these "climate scientists" for a layman's explanation of how they come up with these things and all they say is, "You wouldn't understand." Frankly, I think the reason that they won't explain isn't because he wouldn't understand, but because he would. YMMV, and probably does.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    15. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      but history is flooded with examples of rising temps, lower temps, higher CO2, lower CO2, and I don't quite see how what we are doing rises above being background noise, in the larger picture.

      Except, of course, that it's not. In case you're too busy to click and read, it's an article that explains that CO2 levels are substantially higher now than any point in the last 800,000 years. Typically the largest increases were around 30 ppm/1000 years. In the 17 years prior to that article in 2006, CO2 had risen 30 ppm.

      But by all means, let's continue to ignore these things and wait until we're absolutely certain before we go off and improve our planet and (if you're in the US) reduce our dependency on foreign oil and other such drastic, uncomfortable measures.

    16. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by mug+funky · · Score: 1

      just a correction - melting ice caps wont be the big problem with sea levels (water is denser than ice...), but the associated thermal expansion of the ocean is a problem, with the melting ice-caps just contributing to habitat loss and dramatic news footage.

    17. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by RightwingNutjob · · Score: 1

      Here's something I dug up after 5 minutes worth of googling and clicking: http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/temperature/ (search for "Note this timeline is not to scale" to get to a representative figure, out of one of James Hansen's papers, no less :-P). It's not the same as global temperatures talked about in TFA, but to my admittedly untrained eye, the hump representing the recent temperature rise correlates with a similar hump in Hansen's figure, and the magnitudes of the other features (ie steps, dips) in the time history look bigger and noiser than the current rise.

    18. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by jmorris42 · · Score: 0

      > NASA is a research organization.

      NASA is also an organization that continued to employ James Hansen after he was outted as a lying liar who lies a lot. Lies a lot about Global Warming in particular and is cited in the very article this slashdot thread is arguing about. NASA utterly depends on Congress for it's funding and the winning play is to go along with the "Settled Science". NASA is also an agency in search of a reason to exist, seeing as how they are pretty much out of the space business after the shuttle goes to the Smithsonian later this year.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    19. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Pharmboy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And except that before the industrial revolution, it was also at a plateau for centuries, at almost the highest level for at least 400,000 years, before the industrial revolution, so perhaps something besides Buicks was causing it for the many centuries before 1800. Yes it took off after the IR, but why was it so much higher before then, when human populations were rather sparse? That is the point that people like YOU keep ignoring. There is an issue, but the cause/effect is NOT as cut and dry as you would like to make it.

      People like ME are saying, yes, lets cut emissions, lets cut CO2, but in a measured, progressive but sustainable way that might even provide jobs, and there are reasons and justifications for it even if you don't believe the science. People like you TWIST the words of conservationists, who want the same thing you want but in a more reasonable way. We aren't saying to not make changes, we are saying to meet in the middle with serious, ongoing changes with a wider base of benefit, and instead you jump on a soap box and tell everyone that either we agree with your ideas, or we just want to shit on the planet. It is no wonder that people tell environmentalists to fuck off when you are so arrogant. No wonder you post as AC. I'm not ashamed of what I know, or believe.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    20. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by jmorris42 · · Score: 1

      > and glaciers ... have retreated world-wide on average for many years.

      Yes they have. And dumped out ancient settlements and cavemen as they retreated. Which I take to mean that those glaciers were smaller than they are now during the fairly short time humans (and close relations) have been wandering around. Thus I reason that they will probably be larger eventually.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    21. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      Lying liars are the worst kind :P

      --
      Interesting.
    22. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Trogre · · Score: 1

      Citation please.

      I'm not throwing mud either, I just see nothing to back up your claim that a different set of reporting stations is used every year.

      --
      "Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
    23. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Coastal areas flood only if the south polar icecap melts. The northern icecap is already displacing water levels so melting it will make no difference.

    24. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Obfuscant · · Score: 1
      And how do reporting stations matter when satellites are measuring the temperature?

      A quick nit: satellites do not measure the temperature. They are one of those "proxy data" sources people keep talking about as how we know the temperature 100,000 years ago.

      It wasn't but ten years ago or so that someone figured out that all the satellite data was wrong because they made an incorrect assumption about some relevant process and all the numbers were changed. Knowing this kind of thing happens makes one hesitant to go chicken little about any of the numbers from proxy sources.

    25. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...and if you read the text from your cite:

      "Note this timeline is not to scale! According to this study, after warming up 0.2 C per year for the last 3 decades, the Earth is now the hottest it's been in the last 12,000 years:

              James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David W. Lea, and Martin Medina-Elizade, Global temperature change, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 103 (2006), 14288-14293.

      The current temperature matches the "Holocene maximum", a warm period about 12,000 years ago, right before the last ice age. If the temperature goes up another 1C, it'll be the hottest it's been in the last 1.35 million years! "

      Hottest it's been in the last 12,000 years. And if it goes up a bit more it'll be hotter than it's been in 1.35 million years. I think you've undermined your own argument with your own cite!

    26. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by cain · · Score: 1

      Trollers gonna troll.

    27. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At this moment? The arctic is getting bigger by the day.
      In general though, the Antarctic has been above "average" for years now, where as the arctic has been below.

    28. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Not really. The last time there was a claim of the hottest year was in 2005. Not every year. Maybe the claim was made back then because it was true?

    29. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      NASA is also an organization that continued to employ James Hansen after he was outted as a lying liar who lies a lot.

      You're unemployed then?

    30. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Jerry Pournelle isn't exactly objective or willing to use reason if the answer doesn't conform with his philosophy.

    31. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by RightwingNutjob · · Score: 1

      No, I didn't. My claim was that the magnitude of the current spike is less than feature sizes observed previously, and is smaller than the noise in those features. My subsequent conjecture is that the current rise is therefor noise.

    32. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by cain · · Score: 1

      People like "YOU" are very rare, if indeed really exist. The vast, vast majority of global warming deniers do not want a sustainable, progressive approach. And to claim that the argument is against people like "YOU", when you know that the vast, vast majority of global warming deniers are not like "YOU" is disingenuous. And you know it.

    33. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      I've known him personally for about 30 years now. He's always seemed to be as objective about things (other than politics) as he can manage. Of course, you're entitled to your own opinion of him.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    34. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Pharmboy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm not a global warming denier. I'm someone who thinks the globe is warming, but we don't know how much of it is man made. Likely much, maybe most, maybe less than half. But it doesn't matter if we can meet half way and make some of the changes while we debate, the changes that will improve life even if global warming was a myth: better fuel economy means less reliance on Arab countries and less pollution.

      I think you will find many, many outdoor types agree with me. I'm not Johnny Huntalot, I just fish regularly and I am outdoors a lot. I also live in a county with no manufacturing, few humans, and yet we fail EPA every month from pollution from areas 90 miles from here in two different directions. (between Charlotte and Greensboro/Winston-Salem, NC) If you bother to ask, and don't ask in framing the question around global warming, you will find that most people like the idea of reducing pollution and dependence on Arab oil. Over half the nation has consumption warnings on fish from our lakes due to years of dumping PCBs in the water, for instance.

      Many people who enjoy the outdoors, live in the south and are either Republican or Libertarian (like myself) or otherwise conservative at least fiscally, would agree with half the points if you don't make it a debate about global warming. There are reasons to doubt the motives on some people on both sides of the debate. The smart money avoids the debate and simply focuses on things we all already agree on. You keep harping about "global warming", you tune out half the people who would agree on half the ideas you would like to see implemented. Does it matter if people disagree on the reasons, if they agree with you on at least some of the methods?

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    35. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SETIGuy · · Score: 2

      Yes it took off after the IR, but why was it so much higher before then [grida.no], when human populations were rather sparse?

      Some was the natural slow increase for the interglacial period. Some was deforestation, both natural and artifical. It releases CO2 and prevents absorption of CO2. Humans burning forests to clear the way for croplands. Formation and expansion of the Sahara. Transformation of the Middle East from temperate lands to a desert. Nobody is saying all climate change is man made. We're just really good at doing it quickly.

    36. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Is his opinion on climate change a political one?

    37. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by ZigiSamblak · · Score: 1

      Have any of you noticed that every year they use a different set of reporting stations to "show" that it's the hottest year?

      Yes, I have noticed a lot of "the hottest" and "the wettest" years recently, isn't that the whole point of all the fuss?

      In the new analysis, the next warmest years are 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007, which are statistically tied for third warmest year.

    38. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Xyrus · · Score: 2

      If you think they're manipulating ground station data through selection, then ignore the ground stations and just look at the satellite data, which is showing the same warming trend.

      "I have a friend...."

      Speaking of bad science. Look, if you can demonstrate in a clearly well thought out manner that their science is completely wrong and bullshit, then write a paper about it and get it published in a peer reviewed journal. Seriously. But you better have rock solid impenetrable arguments or it'll be ripped to shreds before it hits the presses. You would think that with so many glaring holes that people seem to be able to see in climate research, that someone would have been able to put forth a paper that tore the climate science community a new one with relative ease.

      But the best that has been managed so far are correcting some relatively minor issues. Some have tried to put forth papers based on your premise and have summarily been laughed at due to the poor quality of the papers.

      If you can summarily disprove the conclusions of the science and that there really is no warming, for fuck's sake put together a paper and do it. You will win a Nobel, you'll silence the ignorant masses who equate their backyard thermometer to the global energy balance, and you'll save billions to trillions of dollars that would have otherwise been wasted trying to come up with ways to prepare for and battle a crisis that doesn't exist.

      Until you can produce that in reviewed/validated way, I'm going to side with the current body of scientific research. That has a lot more weight than some random slashdot poster who "has a friend".

      --
      ~X~
    39. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There was an article in www.theregister.co.uk awhile back that delved into the methodology used by NASA to compute global temperature averages, researching in detail why NASA showed warming while two other different sets of data (Europe and U-Alabama) showed slight cooling trends.

      Bottom line was that NASA was cherry-picking its data points. I'm too lazy to go look up the article again, but it was a hell of a lot more in-depth than most articles on global warming I've seen.

    40. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your whole problem is that you believe statistics can be called a science.

    41. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by green1 · · Score: 1

      Is ANYONE's opinion on climate change NOT a political one?

      Considering we have no working climate models, no explanations for why things happen, no working predictions, no reproducible results, and MUCH political clout weighing in, it is difficult to believe that there is such a thing as a non-political opinion on what is purely a political issue.

    42. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      NASA is a research organization.

      Holy Fuck you are niave. NASA is a politically financed research organization.

      There are ALOT of strings attached to that money.

    43. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Disingenous. Where did you learn that word, talk-like-a-dick school?

    44. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      You can analyze it yourself. It's just the NASA GISS data. They use a particular averaging function to compute an estimated global average temperature, and they use the same function every year.

    45. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      reduce our dependency on foreign oil and other such drastic, uncomfortable measures.

      Every president, democrat or republican, since Carter has talked about reducing dependency on foreign oil. It's one of those things that is easier to say than do. And we are doing it: little-by-little we've started to move towards electric cars. They aren't quite ready to replace traditional cars, but they're getting closer.

      We've also tried things that have failed, like ethanol. But it seems reasonable to believe that soon we'll be able to escape our oil dependency. Of course, if you listen to James Hansen, it'll already be too late. Let's hope he's wrong.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    46. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      I'm a tad skeptical about claims of sea level rising that much.

      The last IPCC report estimated that oceans will continue to rise at around 3mm a year, mainly because that's how fast they've been rising. It seems like a reasonable assumption.

      Since then, other scientists have tried to find ways that the oceans might rise more quickly; for example, maybe warmer weather could lubricate and speed the fall of glaciers from Greenland into the ocean. It's fairly speculative, though.

      Note that 3mm a year will be around 2.5 feet after a century. Note also that geological changes are faster than the rise of the oceans. Continents move faster, significantly so, than global warming is raising the oceans.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    47. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      Further; electric cars are a great start, but not enough to eliminate foreign oil dependency. The Americans will then also need electric tanks, electric planes, electric oil and gas and coal plants, and electric petrochemicals, plastics. I'm sure that oil has other uses.

      --
      Interesting.
    48. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Fortunately all we have to do is get our oil usage far enough below domestic production that we don't have to go to foreign providers. I haven't looked at the numbers to see if switching to electric cars would do that.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    49. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      (d'accord)

      (Stereotyping): But wait, are there electric armour-plated Escalades with gun racks?

      --
      Interesting.
    50. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by kf6auf · · Score: 2

      The CO2 plateau is so narrow on a geologic scale that it isn't often discussed. The apparent plateau you see on the right of the page you mentioned is in fact only a few pixels wide on the left and occurs naturally every 100,000 years. This link is somewhat more readable. I hope you don't view this as me ignoring the cause/effect so I'm going to be redundant: I think that the effect is historically normal, and the cause is the same historical cause of the last three jumps from 200 to 280 ppm, though I don't know exactly what that is.

      What we've seen in the last 200 year has been an increase from 280 to 370 ppm, more than enough to end a glacial maximum, not to mention the other greenhouse gases like methane. Furthermore, the hockey stick graph is only a 1 dimensional picture. Scientists now have climate models with huge numbers of parameters; I've yet to see one that doesn't predict global warming in the next century due primarily to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution.

      Most environmentalists are trying to make some progress and would be ok with half the progress they think the world needs, as a step in the right direction. The oil and coal lobby is fighting against all compromise, because for them compromising is losing.

      Since global warming is a negative externality of CO2 emissions, the free market will operate best if this cost is internalized -- so I advocate a gradually increasing CO2 tax so as not to shock the economy but to make it clear that the price of fossil fuels will go up. The entire proceeds can be spent on domestic research, solar panels for government buildings from domestic manufacturers, or even giving the proceeds back to the people in the form of tax credits.

      Someday, a CO2 tax or cap and trade will happen. Global warming can only be denied for so long. Not too mention, someday we'll run out of fossil fuels (not literally, the prices will start spiking). Long-term smart money is in clean energy.

    51. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Eivind · · Score: 1

      apart from the ice which is currently stored on dry land, and that would, if melted, run into the ocean, you're right. If FLOATING ice melts, the water-level does not change.

      But if ice on say Greenland, melts and runs into the sea, it does affect things. But yes, termal expansion is going to matter more.

    52. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      He's said any number of times on his website that before we spend trillions of dollars on remedies that might not work it might be a good idea to spend a few million on learning more about what's actually happening. He's also said that in any case, running an open-ended experiment on pumping CO2 into the atmosphere probably isn't a good idea. You tell me: is that political or not?

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    53. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 0
      ...and get it published in a peer reviewed journal.

      Yes. After all, we all know that the AGW crowd would never, under any circumstances manipulate the peer review process to prevent contrarian articles from being accepted.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    54. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      I'm sure they do. However, I have my doubts about whether or not they apply it to exactly the same set of stations every year.

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      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    55. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by MightyDrunken · · Score: 1

      Also note that the last IPCC estimate did not include the effect of melting glaciers and ice caps as they felt the predictions were not accurate enough. The next IPCC report is bound to include them so expect that estimate to be dramatically higher than the one before.

    56. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Pharmboy · · Score: 1

      I think the problem is that all politicians want to create a 20 year tax system that doesn't start until they get out of office. Or do nothing. I have always advocated a tax like you are talking about, small to start and grows over time in a way that businesses can plan for. You take 100% of that money and subsidize alternative fuel. You make it a self sustaining system. This would mean that Exxon can get the same money they paid in taxes BACK, if they start developing solar, wind and other renewables. I would be more interested in a tax that isn't just CO2 based, but based on pollution and the source, favoring local sources of oil for example. Total picture of *reasonable* subsidizing according to CO2, overall pollution, and national security.

      As for caps, I"m not sure if that will ever happen, or even be necessary. If 30 years from now, solar, wind and nuclear are cheaper than oil, a cap wouldn't be needed. Some forms of CO2 may never be avoided. Gas plants are the best source of electricity to meet peek electrical demand during parts of the day. Like hydroelectric, they can be turned on and off with a switch, unlike nuclear or coal.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    57. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The American Statistical Society gives the theory of AGW its imprimatur.

      They wouldn't do that unless if the theory was statistically sound.

      http://www.amstat.org/about/pressreleases/climatechange.pdf

    58. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The "amount" of CO2 and the "rate" at which it is increasing currently in the atmosphere is meaningless without solving f(CO2) = Temperature. The earth has been both colder and warmer then it currently is ... in fact, at its coldest point the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was at a record high according to ice samples. That is a big monkey wrench.

      Also, what is this obsession with 30 year trends? It sounds like end point data manipulation to me.

    59. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      So do it yourself. It's publicly-available data.

    60. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Arlet · · Score: 3, Informative

      That means that comparing the numbers from one year with those from another is exactly like comparing apples and oranges

      No, stations within 1000 km distance are actually very closely correlated in their temperature.

      http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/1987/Hansen_Lebedeff.html

    61. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Arlet · · Score: 2

      Melting ice is a good indication that it is really getting warmer, and that it's not just a bunch of measurement errors/cherry picking.

    62. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes but 800,000 years is the blink of an eye in geological timescale. In the more distant past CO2 was almost 20 times as high and yet there is still life here on Earth.

    63. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by AlterEager · · Score: 1

      ...and get it published in a peer reviewed journal.

      Yes. After all, we all know that the AGW crowd would never, under any circumstances manipulate the peer review process to prevent contrarian articles from being accepted.

      Yes we do.

      Or are you trying to be sarcastic here? Making a silly reference to some stolen e-mail?

      Which was about a paper that was published?.

      Even though the paper was utter crap?

    64. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      It's an article that explains that CO2 levels are substantially higher now than any point in the last 800,000 years

      But temperatures aren't, which pretty much blows your attempt at showing something unusual is going on right out of the window.

    65. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by cain · · Score: 1

      Yup.

    66. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Arlet · · Score: 1

      The temperatures need another century to catch up. There's plenty of inertia in the large volume of water in our oceans.

    67. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by sunyjim · · Score: 1

      "Earth gets warmer, ice caps melt, coastal areas flood." I think what you meant to say was Sunspots cycle of the sun causes earth to heat up slightly, chicken little psudo-scientists get huge grants telling the people paying them what they want to hear. Politicians use studies to push their economic agenda Anyway the cycle goes; Earth gets warmer, some ice melts, more clouds form from evaporation, earth cools. Ice starts forming again. We never end up with Waterworld, or the day after tomorrow. That's Hollywood not reality

    68. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by BergZ · · Score: 1

      You make those accusations but there have been 3 independent investigations into the integrity of Climatologists (as a result of the so-called 'Climategate') later and still there is no evidence of scientific malpractice.

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    69. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nice try, but you need to at least learn how to read and interpret data and not repeat garbage from WUWT, Micheals, Singer, Christy, Limbaugh and Beck. The same set of stations are used for each of the datasets (GISS, NOAA, UKMet, RSS, UAH), Individual datasets may use different stations(GISS versus UKMet is the classic example), but any one dataset use the same set of stations from year to year. If that weren't the case why are idiots like Watts and Singer claiming that the warming at any one station is due to the Urban Heat Island effect. You cann't have it both ways. You cann't claim global warming is due to a stations increased heat island and then say the station was removed.

      Yes you are throwing mud and creating propaganda. Climatology is based on sound science, Fourier first described the physics behind global warming, the Air Force documented the exact effects in the 1950's

    70. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      Ah. Playing the conspiracy card. That right there ends any meaningful discussion about the subject. I might as well try to convince a Birther that Obama is an American citizen.

      --
      ~X~
    71. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Further; electric cars are a great start, but not enough to eliminate foreign oil dependency.

      And all the short-stroking over "zero emission" electric vehicles seems to utterly ignore the fact that all electric cars do is move where the power is generated. If the power that flows into the batteries of your electric care comes from coal-fired power plants, you're just shifting CO2 emissions from your tailpipe to a smokestack, and the increased demand for electrical power is going to require building a lot of new power generation facilities. Nuclear power plants are politically unfeasible, solar power plants are location-dependent enough that power companies aren't falling over each other trying to build them, new hydroelectric power is opposed by the uber-green 'Friends of the [insert obscure fish you never heard of before the dam was proposed]' claiming it will ruin their habitat, wind power requires large tracts of turbines and the resultant NIMBYism from people who don't want them in their backyard (plus the environmentalists claiming collapse of bird populations from strikes by the turbine blades)... leaving coal- and oil-fired plants, which are protested because of greenhouse-gas emissions.

    72. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Exactly, and given that the heat capacity of the oceans is 1000x the heat capacity of the atmosphere, it seems to me that the relationship between the two is ocean -> atmosphere, not atmosphere -> ocean. So I conclude then, given your comment on thermal inertia, that the temperature rise we're seeing today was deposited into the ocean by the Sun approximately 100 years ago and is therefore ****-all to do with man-made Co2.

    73. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Not true at all. Most of us understand rational arguments. For example, if there were no climate scientists and politicians stood up and all agreed that we needed to cut our use of oil and gas for energy security and because it's harming us to send so much of our wealth to despotic countries in return for oil, we'd all applaud (indeed I made this very point to my MP). The problem with the fossil fuel problem as "hysteria" is that (1) it shows contempt for the intelligence of the average man in the street, (2) it undermines public confidence in the scientific method and science in general and (3) it advances the cause non-liberals who see liberal democracy as a block on solving environmental problems and who openly call for totalitarianism (Plato's "rule by disinterested philosopher Kings"), in a kind of eco-fascist utopia. The latter is truly frightening, by the way.

    74. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by CheerfulMacFanboy · · Score: 1

      And except that before the industrial revolution, it was also at a plateau for centuries, at almost the highest level for at least 400,000 years, before the industrial revolution, so perhaps something besides Buicks was causing it for the many centuries before 1800.

      So your argument is that "something" kept the CO2 Levels at plateau for centuries and then raised it almost directly proportional to the fossil fuels burned - but that "it" actually has nothing to do with burning fossil fuels, but is in fact something generations of scientists (and "skeptics") have simply been too stupid to identify.

      --
      Fandroids hate facts.
    75. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Arlet · · Score: 1

      it seems to me that the relationship between the two is ocean -> atmosphere, not atmosphere -> ocean

      Since there's no magical heat source at the bottom of the ocean, this is nonsense. The sun heats the earth at the surface, so that temperature of the atmosphere will start to warm up immediately. The oceans will catch up later, and as they do, the atmosphere will warm up some more.

      the temperature rise we're seeing today was deposited into the ocean by the Sun approximately 100 years ago

      Physically impossible. There's no way the sun is going to heat up the oceans first, and even if it did, it wouldn't take 100 years for the atmosphere to respond to the change. Also, the Sun's output has been remarkably constant over the past period.

    76. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by TheSeventh · · Score: 1

      I'm going to go off-topic just for fun about the birthers.

      Their claim: almost 50 years ago, an American woman and a Kenyan man had a son. Although he was a US citizen by birth, regardless of where he was born, because his mother was born and raised American, they smuggled him to Hawaii, obtained a certificate of live birth, and put notices in the two local papers about his birth, and why? So that he could be a "natural-born" citizen. The only difference being that this half-black individual could be president one day, and this all happened only a few years after he wouldn't have been forced to sit at the back of the bus, or use a different bathroom or water fountain.

      Yeah, seems completely plausible to me. And besides, how could you not reward all of that foresight?

      --
      Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
    77. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Since there's no magical heat source at the bottom of the ocean

      Are you seriously suggesting El Nino, La Nina, the AMO and AO are all caused by the atmosphere?

      Physically impossible. There's no way the sun is going to heat up the oceans first

      Who said the Sun heats up the oceans first? It heats up the oceans and the oceans release heat to the atmosphere. What do you think Earth's temperature would be without the latent heat storage of all of those trillions of tons of water?

      Also, the Sun's output has been remarkably constant over the past period.

      It certainly hasn't, unless you're just measuring incoming radiation. You have to measure cosmic ray flux, magnetic flux and a whole lot of other things too. Solar and the PDO correlate far better with temperature than CO2 does.

    78. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Arlet · · Score: 1

      Are you seriously suggesting El Nino, La Nina, the AMO and AO are all caused by the atmosphere?

      No, I didn't suggest that. Those are just temporary fluctuations in the ocean/atmosphere heat flux. I was talking about the total energy in the ocean, which pretty much all comes from the atmosphere.

      Who said the Sun heats up the oceans first? It heats up the oceans and the oceans release heat to the atmosphere.

      Sun heats up atmosphere, atmosphere warms up oceans, and oceans put some of that heat back into atmosphere. In order for the oceans to warm up, the atmosphere must already be warmer than before. So, there's no way you can explain sudden warming from the atmosphere by ocean heat.

      Solar and the PDO correlate far better with temperature than CO2 does.

      No they don't, but feel free to add a link to a credible source to prove your point.

    79. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      I was talking about the total energy in the ocean, which pretty much all comes from the atmosphere.

      What rubbish! When you get sunburn, is that caused by the heat of the atmosphere, or is it caused by the radiation from the sun falling directly onto your skin?

      No they don't, but feel free to add a link to a credible source to prove your point.

      Credible source.

    80. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "reduce our dependency on foreign oil and other such drastic, uncomfortable measures."

      I believe global warming is happening. However, I hate this argument.

      Nothing uncomfortable about it. It's that people don't want to change. For crying out loud, I've got like 6 wood burners in my area polluting the shit out of my neighborhood's air that no one wants to regulate, but people like you cry about diesel?

      The point greenies and enviros don't get is that in your zealotry, you've forgotten about fairness. The one argument that is fair is the oil subsidies issue, which is big. Everything else, no one really gives a shit about because it's a stupid argument. If we didn't get our oil from overseas, we'd be burning more coal and going nuclear, and those 2 things you also complain about despite being, on the whole, a lot less polluting than liquid hydrocarbons.

      Whenever you tie in a side issue, it just aggravates the situation. I don't care about foreign oil. It's a significant issue, I get that, I care about it, but it has nothing to do with our carbon emission and pollution crap. In fact, the eye seems more off the ball about CO2 pollution than sources of pollution in general, which is a massive shift to me, and also an indication this is politically not practically driven.

      After all, wood burning is still quite legal. It's largely considered by some greenies as good, since it's more likely to be closed cycle (grow, burn, grow, burn). Yet it's polluting as hell, screws up your lungs with particle emissions, leads to many heart failures and deaths, has been tied to cancer and blood shearing events. Many forests where the wood come from are private and it's not regrown. But hey, in recent years, you see environmentalists push coal (since it's "clean" burning once going) and wood pellet stoves (usually wood dust pressed waste). I'll take cheap fuel oil over those any day for air health, and burnt diesel-like fuels aren't that good for the environment either.

      If you're shit is so good, and you care, put your money where your mouth is. As it is, it's hard enough buying green energy from the supplier, so instead of hand wringing, form a damn special interest group or a PAC and get some shit done. Start outlawing polluting shit before you go after CO2 and more people will consider it a fair process.

    81. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Arlet · · Score: 1

      Why does your 'credible' source use local US temperature graphs instead of global ones ?

    82. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      So, just because the email was stolen, you think that we shouldn't pay any attention to it? Do you apply the same standards to the Pentagon Papers, or to almost everything going up on Wikileaks?

      --
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    83. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Sorry friend, you've been mislead. Melting ice caps and glaciers are addressed in section 10.7 of the IPCC report.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    84. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Is that not a big enough sample for you? There are more weather stations in the US than there are in the rest of the world combined.

    85. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Arlet · · Score: 1

      US is only 2% of the world, so no, that's not a big enough sample. Weather station density is irrelevant.

    86. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Are you suggesting that the correlation between temperature and the well-mixed gas CO2 doesn't hold in the US, but does everywhere else?

    87. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by rarespotted · · Score: 1

      When people start talking about reliance or dependence on Arab countries for oil, it makes me wonder how many people actually know where the US get's its oil from. The U.S. Energy Information Administration keeps track of this.

    88. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd like to add to your list that we will run out of oil some day. No debating that one. I think peak has happened but even if it is in 50 years, work needs to be done now.

      That said, I do like cars that pollute less, developing better technologies that use less energy or pollute less, but not because of global warming. I just like to breath, drink water, fish, and want to have a national energy policy that isn't dependent on people half way around the globe. If were were making decisions based on those issues, it would make more sense as those are issues we can all agree on and benefit from, and don't require drastic, job killing measures, nor as heated of a debate.

    89. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Considering we have no working climate models, no explanations for why things happen, no working predictions, no reproducible results

      Now that's a political opinion! It's also totally false.

    90. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Yes, because the idea that we don't understand what's happening is patently false. Right now there's a pretty big list of ways high atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be bad. Not all of them will happen, but regardless the costs will be enormous. There is no corresponding list of how high atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be good.

    91. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by jwhitener · · Score: 1

      I half agree with you. I've attempted to talk to conservative relatives about global warming, and gotten no where.

      But when I talk to conservatives about reliance on foreign oil, the answer is always 'drill locally baby drill'. If global warming is real, then staying on oil, be it locally produced or foreign, isn't going to help us.

      When I talk to them about pollution, I usually get responses along the lines of: "Yeah, it would be nicer if cars were cleaner. But that will just happen over time, the free market will make it happen in its own time, no need to regulate or force it."

      I do not have much hope that I can change their minds, giving the obvious bias of their favorite news source

    92. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Pharmboy · · Score: 1

      Not all people who call themselves conservative watch Fox News, or even call themselves Republicans. Not all conservatives are both fiscally and socially conservative either.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    93. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by jwhitener · · Score: 1

      Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that they do. I should have worded it to make clear that I was talking about the circle of conservatives that I am around.

    94. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by CheerfulMacFanboy · · Score: 1

      Tell him to go here.

      --
      Fandroids hate facts.
    95. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      People like "YOU" are very rare, if indeed really exist. The vast, vast majority of global warming deniers do not want a sustainable, progressive approach.

      You're wrong. We're quite common, in fact. Or do you have actual data to back up your "vast, vast majority" claim (rather than "the circle of republicans I know"/"what i've seen on TV")? And part of the reason you seem to not notice us is as Pharmboy put it: "instead you jump on a soap box and tell everyone that either we agree with your ideas, or we just want to shit on the planet". The same mentality (unsurprisingly) applies to "sane" fans of small government and fiscal responsibility, who you immediately assume love rich megamillionaires, hate the poor, idolize Palin, eat babies, etc etc... I bet you'd be surprised to find out that a decent chunk of libertarians support universal healthcare or social safety nets at the state level? Because we're all supposed to be nutso anarchists, right? The world just isn't that black and white, nor is it that polarized -- and too much of debate is mired in assumptions and misinformation.

    96. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      Another thing to consider is that crude oil is a mixture which we seperate out. Then we crack some heavier fractions to make lighter fractions and in the process produce alkenes (hydrocarbons with a double bond) that are used to make plastics.

      There is some flexibility. If you do less cracking then you get more heavy products and less light products but you also get less plastics.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
    97. Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by AlterEager · · Score: 1
      Zero points for reading comprehension. (Like most people who blather on about the stolen e-mails).

      What paper were they talking about in the "redefine peer review" e-mail?

      What happened to that paper - oh, it was published.

      Why were they annoyed that it was going to be published? Because it was utter crap.

      So their "manipulation" of the peer review process was to critisize the publication of a crap paper. Wow, some conspiracy.

  16. where are the error bars and raw data ? by cinnamon+colbert · · Score: 4, Insightful

    without some idea of the error in the measurments, hard to tell what a change of x deg F means

    1. Re:where are the error bars and raw data ? by goodmanj · · Score: 5, Informative

      The actual data this press release is based on is here.

      Versions of this data released to the media generally don't include error bars, though they should. But the methodology is the same as Hansen's 2006 paper:

      "Estimated 2-sigma error (95% confidence) in comparing nearby years of global temperature (Fig. 1A), such as 1998 and 2005, decreases from 0.1C at the beginning of the 20th century to 0.05C in recent decades (4)."

      Thus, the data errors are just a little smaller than the year-to-year variations, but are far, far smaller than the century-long trend. Which is why Hansen stresses that it doesn't really matter exactly which year is the hottest on record: what matters is how this decade stacks up to the rest of the 20th century.

    2. Re:where are the error bars and raw data ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      AM I on slashdot ? a polite, well written informative response..thank you - one barnstar for you !!

    3. Re:where are the error bars and raw data ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      AM I on slashdot ? a polite, well written informative response..thank you - one barnstar for you !!

      But since this is /., no positive moderation, because no-one with mod points has read that far down.

    4. Re:where are the error bars and raw data ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In 1985 there were 6000 US weather stations reporting. Now there are slightly less than 1000. Most of the "missing" stations were higher latitude or higher altitude. I wonder why that happened? Also, 70% of the US sensors are +/- 1 degree F while the other 30% are +/- 1/2 degree F. Assuming that the remainder of the world's temperature sensors are almost as good, how do you get accuracies of one hundredth of a degree? And the entire century's temperature increase is substantially less than the error band. How does this prove an immanent crisis?

  17. Re:Skimpy data by Sonny+Yatsen · · Score: 1

    I keep seeing people saying that temperatures have not risen since 1998, but nobody ever cites any real data to back up that assertion. Care to step up?

    --
    My postings are informational and does not constitute legal advice. Act on it at your risk.
  18. Re:Skimpy data by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

    I think your tinfoil hat is on too tight.

  19. Let's All Be Careful with Our Units by Wowlapalooza · · Score: 1

    Summary is wrong: the difference was actually 0.018 degrees Rankine, not Fahrenheit.

    Sheesh, don't these article-summary writers know anything about Science...?

    1. Re:Let's All Be Careful with Our Units by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are joking, right? The difference is the same on either scale. It is valid to use either scale when talking about a difference.

    2. Re:Let's All Be Careful with Our Units by T+Murphy · · Score: 1

      Wait, the difference between Rankine and Fahrenheit is 459.67 degrees. That makes it a difference of 459.688 degrees... sounds to me like the earth ending in 2012 is a bit optimistic.

  20. Re:Utter utter rubbish by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 2

    Humans have had an undeniable impact on the global environment -- there is really no point in questioning that anymore. As for dying, well, nobody is claiming that our doom is near at hand, just that things are going to get a lot different and that we should be prepared for it, and perhaps taking steps to slow or halt the rate at which we emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We are already over the edge; it is a question of whether or not we want to worsen things for ourselves (or at least make things change more significantly than they are already destined to change).

    --
    Palm trees and 8
  21. Re:Utter utter rubbish by TheSeventh · · Score: 2

    Whether it's our fault or not, greenhouse-gas caused or not, doesn't matter as much. The more important question is, can we do something about it before even bigger catastrophes occur?

    When people say, "global warming is a myth", they can't prove it with any certainty, but they would still choose to do nothing. If they're wrong, Millions or Billions of people die.

    If we choose to do what we can to try and keep it from getting worse, and in the end all the climate scientists were wrong, what are the consequences? We spent more money than we had to?

    To me it's kind of like car insurance, you pay money and hope the worst doesn't happen.

    --
    Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
  22. So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by mark-t · · Score: 1

    ... and somehow people who are all up in arms about global warming think that this is representative of what the earth's climate is actually like?

    Do these people have any idea how old the Earth actually is?

    1. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by dave420 · · Score: 1

      We have more information than just manual record keeping. Far more. Orders of magnitude more. Clearly you're new to this.

    2. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by geekoid · · Score: 0

      Yes they do. And in fact they no more about this shit then you do.
      So either post good data or STFU.

      You people outside the specialty who, for some reason, feel you should be consulted drive me up a fucking wall. Hell, your 'concerns' ahve been answered many times, but you can't even be bothered to understand that?

      You just a smatterer.

      --
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    3. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by mark-t · · Score: 1

      "Hell, your 'concerns' ahve been answered many times"

      Cite references please. To the best of my understanding, they have not been. That is, how can such a sampling of temperatures over such a small period of time hope to accurately model the climate of a planet that has existed for many millions of years? I know that you can often obtain a statistically meaningful result for a hypothesis based on a relatively small sample, but I'm pretty sure that the minimum sample size should have to be much greater than a thousandth of a percent before it's going to be statistically significant with a high degree of confidence.

    4. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by mark-t · · Score: 1

      Could you elaborate on that please?

    5. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Look up "proxy data".

    6. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by kaffiene · · Score: 1

      I imagine that NASA have a fair idea about that

    7. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by mark-t · · Score: 1

      Thank you. While that makes more sense... it still seems limited to the periods that we've actually researched though.

    8. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      Perhaps you can appreciate that the way we know that there are things like N-year glacial cycles is that people studied temperature proxies that go back some kN years (k>1). Vostok goes back 400 kyr. Sediment measurements go back some 5 million years.

    9. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by Arlet · · Score: 2

      A climate model is nothing more than a pure physical model of the earth. All you need to produce a graph from 1900 to 2010 is to plug in the initial conditions, and all external influences from 1900 onwards (solar output, atmospheric composition, volcanic eruptions). The model calculates what happens next. Temperatures are not plugged in the model, so please explain why you need a bigger sample.

    10. Re:So we've been keeping records for 130 years... by BergZ · · Score: 1

      The proxy data, in the form of antarctic ice cores, goes back over 400,000 years.
      Admittedly we would love to have millions of years worth of data and from around the world, but that is (as far as we know) just not possible.
      The best we have is proxy data for climate, which isn't perfect, then again, fossils are only proxy data for dinosaurs.

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  23. Re:Utter utter rubbish by lp_bugman · · Score: 1

    You might want read this link:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/4436934/Snow-is-consistent-with-global-warming-say-scientists.html

    In short: Do not confuse weather with climate change. weather is a short term event. like this winter. climate is the global trend over a long period of time.

    On the good side. scientists are expecting big changes to happen within our life time. So you should see with your own eyes if you were correct or wrong. Hint: Rising seas, famine and large human migrations.

    --
    BSD licensed software can't be stolen....
  24. Re:Utter utter rubbish by XanC · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "Money" is just a medium here; it's a matter of where it makes sense to focus our efforts and resources. You're endorsing misallocation on an unprecedented scale.

  25. Global Warming a hoax? by mswhippingboy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Thank God man-made global warming was proven to be a hoax. Just imagine what the world might have looked like now if those conspiring scientists had been telling the truth. No doubt Nasa would be telling us that this year is now the hottest since humans began keeping records. The weather satellites would show that even when heat from the sun significantly dipped earlier this year, the world still got hotter. Russia's vast forests would be burning to the ground in the fiercest drought they have ever seen, turning the air black in Moscow, killing 15,000 people, and forcing foreign embassies to evacuate. Because warm air holds more water vapour, the world's storms would be hugely increasing in intensity and violence – drowning one fifth of Pakistan, and causing giant mudslides in China.

    The world's ice sheets would be sloughing off massive melting chunks four times the size of Manhattan. The cost of bread would be soaring across the world as heat shrivelled the wheat crops. The increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would be fizzing into the oceans, making them more acidic and so killing 40 per cent of the phytoplankton that make up the irreplaceable base of the oceanic food chain.

    Oh, wait.....

    --
    Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
    1. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by H0p313ss · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The problem is that by the time we have enough evidence to convince everybody that there is a problem it will be far, far too late to do anything about it.

      You have to remember that we live in a world where most people still believe in the supernatural, where people in power still consider prayer to be of value and where people still go around killing each other because they disagree about invisible beings with superpowers.

      Trying to convince everyone is a pointless waste of effort. We need to find ways of making people WANT change irrespective of personal religious or political beliefs. If every naysayer on the planet actually WANTED the most fuel efficient vehicles, or light bulbs, if the NIMBYs actually WANTED wind farms in the neighborhood because they saw the advantages then we could actually move forward instead of getting stuck arguing over issues while the world slowly burns.

      --
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    2. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      Please provide background data from reputable scientific sourcesfor each and every statement you have above.

      Then, explain why current research on Antarctica shows that the ice sheets have come and gone repeatedly over the last million years.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    3. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by mswhippingboy · · Score: 1
      --
      Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
    4. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 0

      What's the matter, asshat? Can't support your own statements? Yeah, thought so. Now, STFU and go back to eating the shit they put in front of you instead of actually learning anything, dumbass.

      Actually, I am betting you are a snot-nosed, know-it-all teenager who should be doing homework instead of trying to act intelligent and failing miserably.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    5. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by mswhippingboy · · Score: 1
      Sorry. I don't take orders from the likes of imbeciles like yourself. I don't owe you a damn thing. There is more than ample evidence to support climate change and no amount of additional evidence will convince the likes of you. I've seen your prior posts and they tell me all I need to know about you.

      Oh, and by the way, my grandkids will get a kick out of "I am betting you are a snot-nosed, know-it-all teenager who should be doing homework". That's the best insult I've gotten in years!

      --
      Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
    6. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Want, hell. Why don't you just make them do what you want? You seem to know what is best for them.

    7. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by H0p313ss · · Score: 1

      Want, hell. Why don't you just make them do what you want? You seem to know what is best for them.

      Well of course I think I do, we all do. The difference is that the smartest people in the world happen to agree with me. :)

      --
      XML is a known as a key material required to create SMD: Software of Mass Destruction
    8. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by mswhippingboy · · Score: 1

      Want, hell. Why don't you just make them do what you want? You seem to know what is best for them.

      Well of course I think I do, we all do. The difference is that the smartest people in the world happen to agree with me. :)

      It's like I tell people all the time, "Think about it. Do you you really think I'd take the time to argue with you if you were right?"

      --
      Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
    9. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by H0p313ss · · Score: 1

      Want, hell. Why don't you just make them do what you want? You seem to know what is best for them.

      Well of course I think I do, we all do. The difference is that the smartest people in the world happen to agree with me. :)

      It's like I tell people all the time, "Think about it. Do you you really think I'd take the time to argue with you if you were right?"

      And the other option would be to agree with someone like George Bush, I mean WTF kind of option is that?

      --
      XML is a known as a key material required to create SMD: Software of Mass Destruction
    10. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Whoooaaaa, tiger.

      The warming-storm thing has been pretty well debunked, I'd say, but here:

      According to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, "Reliable data ... since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased."
      via crosswalk.com/1285118/

      I'd hope that most of us can agree its a little silly to blame natural disasters, that by all accounts have been happening for, oh, ever, on anthropogenic global warming.

      Same with ice sheets, which are not stable but in fact change all.. the.. time.

      and food, aka wheat, aka plants, aka phytoplankton, all BENEFIT from increased CO2. Yeap, reach back to biology 101 and that whole plants use CO2 and sunlight to make energy thing. The reason the Dinos had such awesome foliage? You guessed it, more CO2.
      I am having trouble embedding links, but via sciencedaily.com and geocraft.com. google phytoplankton and CO2 for the first and climate during the carboniferous period for the second.

      I am going to create a gizmo that magically offsets your carbon footprint by aligning your ions with your chi and attaching all the bad energy and carbons to a thin paper sheet (refills just .99!!) If you carry it on you all day you will be able to look other hippies in the eyes at drum circles! Explaining science is too much work.

    11. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem is that by the time we have enough evidence to convince everybody that there is a problem it will be far, far too late to do anything about it.

      Do you have any evidence to support this?

      You have to remember that we live in a world where most people still believe in the supernatural, where people in power still consider prayer to be of value and where people still go around killing each other because they disagree about invisible beings with superpowers.

      Most people? Again, your evidence? Also, can you prove that belief in a 'higher power' of any form disallows a person from being able to use scientific method to resolve issues or disallows them from understanding solid scientific data?

      Trying to convince everyone is a pointless waste of effort. We need to find ways of making people WANT change irrespective of personal religious or political beliefs. If every naysayer on the planet actually WANTED the most fuel efficient vehicles, or light bulbs, if the NIMBYs actually WANTED wind farms in the neighborhood because they saw the advantages then we could actually move forward instead of getting stuck arguing over issues while the world slowly burns.

      Simply put, you can't *make* people want anything. You can present the evidence and let people decide, or you can try coercing them into seeing things your way. If you're so hell-bent on making people see things your way, you're no better than the religious institutions or politicians.
      Just because somebody doesn't agree with you doesn't mean that they don't want the same things (cheaper power, pollution-reduced vehicles, etc.).

    12. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by jpapon · · Score: 1
      It's already too late IMHO.

      I just don't see how people can possibly doubt that burning up millions of years of stored atmosphere in a couple centuries will produce a massive shock to the planet. Don't they realize that the vast majority of a plant's mass comes from the atmosphere? And that the vast majority of the planet's fossil fuels comes from dead plant matter that has accumulated over the eons?

      So the planet spent millions of years storing all this atmosphere underground, and here we come in one fell swoop and burn it in a couple hundred. How could that NOT have a significant effect on the atmosphere?

      --
      -- Let us endeavor so to live that when we pass even the undertaker shall be sorry. -- M. Twain
    13. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      In other words, you can't support your statements and are regurgitating the propaganda you have heard, probably from groups like ELF.

      Well, if you are so concerned about the environment and believe that people are the problem, there is a simple solution. Go kill your friends, your family, your neighbors, and then yourself.

      Save the planet and improve the gene pool at the same time.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    14. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      at the risk of trolling; we need to make people WANT democracy. WANT to believe in God.

      The problem is that there are many more trends in this world, and those who believe something seem to WANT others to agree no matter the cost. We tried to fix this by making this thing called Science so we could reproduce results and make things verifiable. Then at least, due to the fact that any intellectual process is based on some sort of reason and logic; most people conforming to standard 'reason' could agree without without any forceful persuasion.

      If our science can't convince and you have to resort to other means then you maybe want to start doubting if you aren't simply on a crusade. Because a goal never justifies the means. Fervor doesn't justify being wrong. The stream of information about global warming is one of the muddiest in history, how about cleaning the thing up so our science will do the 'want' part for you.

      I agree with any attempt at clean, fuel efficiency, reducing pollution; but I do not discuss with a gun down my throat.

    15. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by marcuz · · Score: 1

      Your reasoning is very weak. I have some evidence that the world will be a better place if you deposit a couple of thousands to my banking account. Do it as soon as possible, the world might be doomed if you don't. - I hope you get my point. So - turn of your TV and start to think for yourself, you'll see how this world works. Global warming is a meme developed by the wealthy to make them even more wealthy - but what's more important: powerful.

    16. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by inthealpine · · Score: 2

      You might want to start by not insulting the majority of the population that is spiritual.
      It's like saying:

      "Hey, I think you're a fucking idiot for praying to an entity that doesn't exist. I also blame you for it being so hot right now. Now I know you don't believe any of this, but If you could fork over 20% of the money you have for the next few decades that would be great."

      Something tells me you wont get a great response.

      --
      "In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash"
    17. Re:Global Warming a hoax? by H0p313ss · · Score: 1

      You might want to start by not insulting the majority of the population that is spiritual.

      Au contraire. The majority of the population who is spiritual can bite me.


      Come mothers and fathers
      Throughout the land
      And don't criticize
      What you can't understand
      Your sons and your daughters
      Are beyond your command
      Your old road is rapidly agin'.
      Please get out of the new one
      If you can't lend your hand
      For the times they are a-changin'.

      --
      XML is a known as a key material required to create SMD: Software of Mass Destruction
  26. Re:Skimpy data by XanC · · Score: 1

    I keep seeing people saying that temperatures have not risen since 1998, but nobody ever cites any real data to back up that assertion. Care to step up?

    http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/06/global-temperature-trend-upate

  27. Solar Activity... by sdguero · · Score: 1

    Depending which cycle you believe, 2010 was also predicted (I dont' think official numbers are out yet) to be a peak year in solar activity for not only this decade, but for the last 80 years. No matter which model you believe, the sun runs on an 11 year cycle, and we are at the peak of the current cycle right now. As I recall, that was a motivating factor for getting some of the more recent satellites up into orbit that have been monitoring the sun's activity the last few years.

    Pretty cool insight into Solar Variation:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

    1. Re:Solar Activity... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You couldn't be more wrong.

  28. Hanson gets it done. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    NOAA said "tied". Japan said "second highest". UAH says "tied" with 1998.

    That's not what the media wants. When you need a really good headline you go to Hanson. He never hesitates to hand-wave statistical error and say "hottest" on cue.

    1. Re:Hanson gets it done. by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

      The headline writer in TFA said 2010 was the warmest on record, not James Hansen. He said that it was equal top. The second paragraph in your first article states that the NOAA agrees with NASA's results, that the surface temperature for 2010 was tied with 2005.

      The second article shows that the delta of the temperatures was the second highest (meaning the change in temperature not absolute temperature). That measures something different than NOAA and NASA.

      Your third article shows that the lower atmosphere was tied with 1998. Once again, that is measuring something different than NOAA and NASA, and therefore does not conflict with their findings.

  29. Re:Skimpy data by neonv · · Score: 2

    The data from NASA is located here http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20110112/.

    The global average temperature went down from 2005 to 2008. It has gone up from 2008 to 2010. The nature of the data over the last hundred years shows an upward trend.

    There are important questions that I wish everyone would consider when reading this. They are,

    Is the cause is man made? (Consider volcanoes as a major CO2 source, sun energy output, etc)

    Is the change significant?

    Is the change preventable? (this is related to environmental factors that we have little control over, such as sun energy output)

    What major sources of energy can we make available to replace oil and coal? One way or another, we have to answer this question eventually. Remember that we use close to the energy that the sun delivers to the Earth, so the combination of solar, hydro, bio fuel, and other sun energy sources will not be enough.

    These questions are rarely answered, and will lead to a solution better than just using electric cars (which don't solve any problems since most power plants use coal).

  30. Re:"And it's a tragedy we can't" -- Trenberth by Score+Whore · · Score: 1

    Weather and climate are not the same thing. It's stupid to even bring them up in the same sentence.

  31. And yet... Curiously Cold and Wet in So, Cal. by eepok · · Score: 1

    I dare say we didn't have a proper summer... and may indeed be having a proper winter.

    1. Re:And yet... Curiously Cold and Wet in So, Cal. by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Curiously? Not at all. Global climate != weather in SoCal.

    2. Re:And yet... Curiously Cold and Wet in So, Cal. by liquiddark · · Score: 1

      Turns out SoCal isn't the whole world. I know, I was just as shocked as you are.

    3. Re:And yet... Curiously Cold and Wet in So, Cal. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What is this "global climate" you're talking about? What is the physical phenomenon behind the "average global temperature"?

    4. Re:And yet... Curiously Cold and Wet in So, Cal. by nzwasp · · Score: 1

      I dare say we didn't have a proper summer... and may indeed be having a proper winter.

      I was wondering how they come up with these facts, up in Calgary its been freezing all year, the radio stations even tout it as the city summer forgot! So far winter has been a tonne of snow, wind and freezing temperatures

  32. Re:Utter utter rubbish by sexconker · · Score: 1

    Beavers have had an undeniable impact on the global environment -- there is really no point in questioning that anymore. As for dying, well, nobody is claiming that our doom is near at hand, just that things are going to get a lot different and that we should be prepared for it, and perhaps taking steps to slow or halt the rate at which we beaver about. We are already over the edge; it is a question of whether or not we want to worsen things for ourselves (or at least make things change more significantly than they are already destined to change).

    Also, bees, termites, algae, wrens, jellyfish, rats, trees, etc.

  33. Re:Skimpy data by Score+Whore · · Score: 1

    How about this from the NOAA?

    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100915_globalstats.html

    Hansen is known for tweaking the data, anything that comes out of his mouth is suspect.

  34. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Seumas · · Score: 1

    But . . . But . . . drudgereport keeps pointing out stories all year long about how it's the coldest on record for a particular city here and there or how it's really cold today and how there's going to be snow tomorrow and, therefore, the weather this month proves a pattern over the last half million years and disproves all theories asserting otherwise!

  35. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Monkeedude1212 · · Score: 1

    None of them have had as profound an effect as human beings.

  36. Please stay up to date... by Obfuscant · · Score: 0, Troll
    Everyone who has been using the term "global warming" is out of date. Passe. Please keep up with the latest developments.

    It's is now "global climate change". That way it doesn't matter if the planet is getting warmer or colder. As long as it is changing the "global climate change" proponents will be correct. Sort of like betting on both black and red on the roulette table. You only lose if 0 (or 00) comes up.

    Thank you for your attention. You may now return to the "yes it is/no it isn't/its fucking cold out/weather is not climate you moron" flame war.

    1. Re:Please stay up to date... by geekoid · · Score: 3, Informative

      Stop spreading that FUD.

      It's called GLobal climate change becasuse even thougn it's gett hotter, the world still has cycles.

      Stupid people assume if the climate gets warmer, then there won't be and snow anywhere.
      Or the 'It's false because it's snowed more this year.' In fact they fall prey to the same type of illogical thinking deniers do.

      The world is getting hotter, and because of the increase in energy, weather is getting more radical. And not the good radical like King Radical, either.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:Please stay up to date... by mug+funky · · Score: 1

      actually, both terms have been used to represent specific things since the beginning of the debate back in the 70s.

      global warming means (you guessed it!), the simple increase in global average temperature.

      climate change means the associated change in all aspects of global weather due to the increased global average temperature. you can think of it as just "what happens when you change the balance of gases in the atmosphere", where global warming is just a small aspect of that effect.

      the media has been using these two terms interchangably, much to the chagrin of sane and insane people alike.

    3. Re:Please stay up to date... by Obfuscant · · Score: 1

      So I'll count you in the "weather is not climate you moron" flamer contingent then, shall I?

    4. Re:Please stay up to date... by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

      Actually
      Both Climate Change and Global Warming are unique terms that have specific meanings.

      To put it simply:
      Cause: Global Warming
      Effect: Climate Change
      http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html

      If anything, we should be talking about Global Warming more.
      Because it's amazingly simple when you boil it down to it's bare constuients.

      **"Is it the sun?"** Sometimes but definently not for the past half century.
      http://greyfalcon.net/solar0.png

      **"Are we certain that less and less infrared radiation is exiting out into space, almost entirely in the wavelength we'd expect CO2 and CH4 to block?"**
      Yes
      http://greyfalcon.net/greenhouse

      **Is the rate of warming significant?**
      Yeah, I'd say 100x faster than you'd expect from changes in earth's orbit alone is significant.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bftcWQiZPPg
      http://www.skepticalscience.com/How-to-explain-Milankovitch-cycles-to-a-hostile-Congressman-in-30-seconds.html
      http://greyfalcon.net/climate2
      (^^ I need a better source for this comment)

      **"Do we know that the CO2 is from fossil fuels. i.e. "Manmade CO2"**
      Yes
      http://greyfalcon.net/carbon3
      http://greyfalcon.net/c14
      http://greyfalcon.net/carbon2

      DONE. That's all you need to know.

      With absolute "manmade CO2" is the main cause global warming.

    5. Re:Please stay up to date... by marcuz · · Score: 1

      People use words as they see fit. Global warming meme is falling apart so they need to be smart and talk climate change now. The point is they want to profit from it. Earth is getting hotter because the sun is hotter - it has nothing to do with CO2, that's just fabricated nonsense. We are just being fuck*d so we willingly give up our wealth.

  37. ice caps-Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Antarctic ice is high, over the 30 year average. Up north, the trend is down, but the total is about constant for over 30 years.

    The sea level has been rising for hundreds of years, and the rate is NOT accelerating.

    The hottest year game is of little use, the hottest year (until Hansen starting adjusting the old data down) was in the 1930s.

    I can supply urls for all this, or you can dig a bit, there is no catastrophic climate change, just mother nature doing what she has been doing for millions of years.

    1. Re:ice caps-Re:Lies, damned lies and statistics by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      The hottest year game is of little use, the hottest year (until Hansen starting adjusting the old data down) was in the 1930s.

      Another common denialist claim. Try something that hasn't been debunked. 1934 was the hottest year in the United States. I know a lot of Americans don't know it, but the US is much smaller than the world. It's only like 2% of it. You really need to try to include the rest of the world in your analysis.

  38. No problem by overshoot · · Score: 1

    Yeah and when life was the most abundant on earth, it was between 4-7C warmer and the CO2 was in the 20 times as much as today.

    Agreed, life will adapt. Even we can probably adjust to hotter climates in a few hundred thousand years if the cull rate is high enough (but of course not too high.) Of course, there's a limit to how hot mammals can tolerate and still produce viable sperm but evolution has done wonders in the past.

    --
    Lacking <sarcasm> tags, /. substitutes moderation as "Troll."
    1. Re:No problem by Isaac-1 · · Score: 1

      Why adapt, engineer, take your pick, we either engineer ourselves to fit into the climate, or we engineer the climate to fit ourselves. We have been doing it for thousands of years, diverting rivers for irrigation, clearing land to grow crops, this really is no different.

  39. The crux of the matter by amightywind · · Score: 0

    Well that does it. Please government, double my taxes! Send the extra to the scientific elites. They know what's best for me.

    (Frankly, I don't give a piss about the climate as long as I have gas for my Chevy Tahoe!)

    --
    an ill wind that blows no good
    1. Re:The crux of the matter by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

      Because everyone knows that Orwellian conspiracy theories trump physics, in how we understand reality.

  40. NASA Gets Busted All The Time by chromozone · · Score: 3, Informative

    NASA, GISS and James Hansen have been busted before (by amateurs) for being wrong several times :

    Deja Vu All Over Again: Blogger Again Finds Error in NASA Climate Data

    NASA'S Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is one of the world's primary sources for climate data. GISS issues regular updates on world temperatures based on their analysis of temperature readings from thousands of monitoring stations over the globe.

    GISS’ most recent data release originally reported last October as being extraordinarily warm-- a full 0.78C above normal. This would have made it the warmest October on record; a huge increase over the previous month's data.

    Those results set off alarm bells with Steve McIntyre and his gang of Baker Street irregulars at Climateaudit.org. They noted that NASA's data didn't agree at all with the satellite temperature record, which showed October to be very mild, continuing the same trend of slight cooling that has persisted since 1998. So they dug a little deeper.

    An alert reader on McIntyre's blog revealed that there was a very large problem. Looking at the actual readings from individual stations in Russia showed a curious anomaly. The locations had all been assigned the exact temperatures from a month earlier-- the much warmer month of September. Russia cools very rapidly in the fall months, so recycling the data from the earlier month had led to a massive temperature increase.

    A few locations in Ireland were also found to be using September data..

    Steve McIntyre informed GISS (run by Hansen) of the error by email. According to McIntyre, there was no response, but within "about an hour", GISS pulled down the erroneous data, citing a "mishap" and pointing the finger of blame upstream to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)."

    http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13410&red=y#366381

    NOAA has been singled out for calling 2010 the warmest year using faulty data

    NOAA’s Jan-Jun 2010 Warmest Ever: Missing Data, False Impressions

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/17/noaas-jan-jun-2010-warmest-ever-missing-data-false-impressions/

    1. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      readings from individual stations in Russia showed a curious anomaly. The locations had all been assigned the exact temperatures from a month earlier-- the much warmer month of September.

      That was two years ago, it was not NASA who made the mistake and it was quickly corrected. Why are you trying to mislead readers about this?

    2. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by Hellsbells · · Score: 1

      Thankfully we have these plucky bloggers with hearts of gold, keeping an eye on all those eggheads in their ivory towers - Scientists are always trying to mislead us with their "theories" and "models".

      I also read a blog the other day asserting that global warming was caused by Aliens with some relationship to Hitler.

      Me - I'd rather listen to NASA, The National Academy of Sciences, and all the other major Scientific institutions of the world, than some blogger. Sure research organizations publish papers and documents containing mistakes; that's the nature of science.

      "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the “body of fact” that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy. Within the business we recognise that a controversy exists. However, with the general public the consensus is that cigarettes are in some way harmful to the health. If we are successful in establishing a controversy at the public level, then there is an opportunity to put across the real facts about smoking and health. Doubt is also the limit of our “product”. Unfortunately, we cannot take a position directly opposing the anti-cigarette forces and say that cigarettes are a contributor to good health. No information that we have supports such a claim."

    3. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by Xyrus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Actually, data errors are NOAA's fault as they're the ones providing the raw data. The mistakes usually get corrected on their own when the records are reviewed (such as when the hurricane season gets reviewed at the end of the season). Most errors may not get discovered for awhile, as they are not used to make a sensationalized public release.

      But McIntyre and Watts like to play the conspiracy card, and either encourage (or at the very least don't discourage or correct) erroneous data/conclusions of their own or that of their participants. Every single mistake is vindication for them and their audience. It's all the proof they need to mischaracterize the thousands of climate scientists in the world as evil, money-grubbing, fascist socialist bastards bent on world domination.

      Basically they do the same thing the IDers do to the theory of evolution, only with less Jesus. Every now and again they discover an error, which is good because it makes the science that much better. But they have yet to do anything meaningful in discrediting the current body of climate science. The papers I know about authored by McIntyre on the subject have been ripped to shreds. Their collective postulations about weather stations was thoroughly debunked (though, of course, they continues to deny it). Most of their other arguments that I've seen in the climate community have been torn apart piece by piece by experts in the field.

      It's possible to be a skeptic without being an asshole. I work with a few skeptics. We have interesting conversations ranging from analytical methods to atmospheric dynamics. But the only time McIntyre and Watts are brought up is when we either want to laugh or when we want to point out how NOT to do something.

      --
      ~X~
    4. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by zm · · Score: 2

      In addition to that, it is the oceans that are supposed to keep all the accumulated heat. But according to the best available measurements (the ARGO probes), it is just not showing up: http://judithcurry.com/2011/01/07/wheres-the-missing-heat/
      I guess the old adage applies: If the facts do not conform to the theory, they must be disposed of.

      --
      Sig ?
    5. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 2

      >>Their collective postulations about weather stations was thoroughly debunked

      Postulations are just a theory. ;)

      But seriously, the temperature station project was worthwhile, and various (real) papers have credited Watts for his work. He *guessed* that fixing problems with the weather stations would disprove global warming, and was wrong, but that doesn't mean that the work that he and a bunch of volunteers did was meaningless. It's always better to have empirical data on things than trying to heuristically guess 'em from looking at data.

      In other words, he both contributed something of value, and his hypothesis was wrong. Not uncommon in science.

    6. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>In addition to that, it is the oceans that are supposed to keep all the accumulated heat. But according to the best available measurements (the ARGO probes), it is just not showing up

      They don't keep all the accumulated heat. The heat inertia effect is closer to 50%.

      But I'm not sure why you're saying that oceans aren't warming -
      http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100121_globalstats.html

    7. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I try to encourage people to be skeptical of political motivations(IE: funding). Arguing the science itself is best left to scientists since most of us have no direct access to the raw evidence nor the means by which it is taken. This isn't to say that we should shut our eyes to the evidence, but when there are opposing scientific claims being made, the only means by which we can determine which is more likely to be true(or closer to being true) is to simply follow the money in order to follow the motive.

      I accept that GISS, NOAA, IPCC and several other agencies have suggesting an increase in global temperature. I accept that CO2 has a logarithmic relationship to temperature(shown via more rigorously controlled experimentation as opposed to most of climate study which is more of a social science, meaning many uncontrolled variables, no reproducibility and so on). I accept that global climate change does happen(at one point earth did not exist, which means that neither did its climate. Now it does, so QED). I accept that humans are creating lots of CO2 and such.

      But I also accept that the actors involved in making conclusions about these things are being paid to find specific results, and that further funding is directly related to what conclusions they make. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/climate_money.pdf

      Of course, if I were to suggest the solar centric model of our systems orbit was receiving more funding than the ptolemaic system as justification of being skeptical of the evidence that our system orbits the sun, I'd be dismissed. The reason I think I am justified in raising political arguments for the issue of climate science is because as opposed to some other less funded competing scientific conclusions, unpaid volunteers(like McIntyre) are exposing fundamental problems with the conclusions of people with millions of dollars of backing.

    8. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      I can agree with that. However, a scientist, when wrong, will either go back and change his hypothesis to correct it OR realize that there's really no way to fix it and throw it out.

      Watts maintains that he is still right in the face of evidence that shows he is wrong. And like any good (bad) blogger trying to generate site hits spins every single weather story into an attack against climate science or additional "proof" of some massive world-wide conspiracy.

      If he wants to be skeptic and provide legitimate research (like the weather stations) that's great. It only makes for better science. But making claims of a giant conspiracy and refusing to acknowledge when he's been proven wrong really doesn't help constructive discussion on the subject. In fact, it really just makes him one more loud asshole on the net.

      --
      ~X~
    9. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by jwhitener · · Score: 1

      I wish there was a +5 MIS-informative automatically assigned whenever someone linked to or described anything found on climateaudit.org.

      Have they found some errors in enormous data sets from time to time? Yeah. Does it fundamentally change the picture that most climate scientists present? Nope.

    10. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      I can agree with that. However, a scientist, when wrong, will either go back and change his hypothesis to correct it OR realize that there's really no way to fix it and throw it out.

      Watts maintains that he is still right in the face of evidence that shows he is wrong. And like any good (bad) blogger trying to generate site hits spins every single weather story into an attack against climate science or additional "proof" of some massive world-wide conspiracy.

      If he wants to be skeptic and provide legitimate research (like the weather stations) that's great. It only makes for better science. But making claims of a giant conspiracy and refusing to acknowledge when he's been proven wrong really doesn't help constructive discussion on the subject. In fact, it really just makes him one more loud asshole on the net.

      I don't really disagree with anything you say, except both Watts and the Mc's have occasionally made actual contributions and been cited in the literature.

      If Climategate taught us anything, it's that the whole conspiracy theory about AGW is wrong. Except for the parts where Phil Jones was conspiring to hide the data from the skeptics, I suppose.

    11. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      They don't keep all the accumulated heat. The heat inertia effect is closer to 50%.

      Actually...

      “The oceans are absorbing more than 80 percent of the heat from global warming,” he says. “If you aren’t measuring heat content in the upper ocean, you aren’t measuring global warming.” [Dr. Josh Willis]

      Josh's estimate is plausible because:

      • Oceans cover 71% of the Earth's surface.
      • Water's specific heat is over four times greater than that of rock.
      • Water stores heat using the heat transfer mechanisms present in rock plus convection.
      • Water is more transparent than rock so visible light warms more than just the very top layer.

      But I'm not sure why you're saying that oceans aren't warming.

      Nice link, but he's probably referring to a (resolved) problem with the Argo data that's discussed in that same article:

      “So the new Argo data were too cold, and the older XBT data were too warm, and together, they made it seem like the ocean had cooled,” says Willis.

    12. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      Quick back of the envelope calculation:
      The radiative forcing since 1750 is around 2.26 W/M^2. With a climate sensitivity of 0.8C/(W/M^2) that should mean an increase of +1.8C, but we've had an increase of +0.8C, which means the oceans have absorbed roughly (1-(0.8/1.8)) = 55% of the heat imbalance.

      That's a gross simplification and assumes that the numbers are right, but I think it's a reasonable ballpark figure. Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

    13. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      I thought zm was saying that the oceans were supposed to be keeping all of the accumulated heat due to radiative forcings rather than the land or the atmosphere. This is a slight exaggeration, but only by 25% at most. That's all I meant. Obviously, we're talking about different things so I'm forced to print a retraction for that irrelevant comment of mine.

    14. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      The AGW community ... refuse to look at green technologies like nuclear because they’re ignorant. ... [ShakaUVM]

      Already discussed, but note that nuclear plants do generate small amounts of CO2 due to current enrichment and mining methods, as well as the curing of concrete containment domes. Averaged over the projected life of the reactors, this CO2 is only a few percent of the emissions from an equivalently powerful coal plant. Pebble bed reactors might be capable of safe operation without containment domes, but that unfortunate incident in Germany makes it unlikely that they'll be built that way for a while. Nuclear power is our best hope of maintaining a prosperous civilization. Please don't oversell it by making claims it can't live up to yet.

      ... It is possible to reduce our CO2 by 50%, maily because we can attack the problem in a centralized way at the power plant level. 0 CO2 emission is simply not on the table, but the fact that climatologists think it is doable is yet another bit of evidence for the fact that being good at science doesn’t make you good at policy. [ShakaUVM]

      Dr. Knutti's emissions graph makes it clear that he's examining a scenario in which CO2 emissions only drop to half of 2010 values by ~2030, and a quarter of 2010 values by ~2070. That doesn't seem too different from the Lieberman-McCain "Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007" which seemed doable.

      Because much of the CO2 emitted by nuclear plants is emitted in a pulse as the concrete dome cures, any nuclear plants built in the next few decades won't be emitting CO2 past ~2070 (unless we still haven't perfected mining and enrichment in the next ~60 years.) As you say, centralized power plants are easiest to upgrade, but we've got ~60 years to perfect electric cars in order to hit Knutti's target. They certainly can't universally replace gasoline vehicles in time (especially in developing countries) but biofuels can be produced carbon-neutrally (albeit inefficiently at present) in a centralized fashion. Distributing biofuels just like gasoline will avoid the need to make and sell billions of electric cars by 2100. Even if that fails, I'd be astonished if ~60 years isn't enough time for humanity to devise and implement a carbon sequestration program capable of making up the difference.

      In fact, the only way the human race could possibly fail to tackle climate change would be if there were legions of crackpots arguing that climate "scientists" are actually just deceitful, shady, laughably dishonest, perverting, badly reeking, dogmatic, anti-scientific, idiotic, disingenuous, scurrilous, nefarious, damned, indefensibly guilty, laughably wrong, fundamentally rotten, self-discrediting, fraudulent, bullshitting partisan hacks with something to hide who do bad things, don't fucking know

    15. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>Already discussed, but note that nuclear plants do generate small amounts of CO2 due to current enrichment and mining methods, as well as the curing of concrete containment dome

      Sure. And people driving to work and breathing at the plant generate CO2, too. It's still no excuse for AGW protestors to chain themselves to a nuclear power plant in protest, though, as the amounts are insignificant.

      >>Dr. Knutti's emissions graph makes it clear that he's examining a scenario in which CO2 emissions only drop to half of 2010 values by ~2030

      There's lots of greens calling for zero CO2 emissions. Since you work in the field, I'm sure you're aware of them.

      As far as science vs. policy goes, I absolutely agree with you that science and policy are two different ballgames, but people confuse the two: denying science because they don't like the policy, or pretending that because they know science, they are suited to crafting policy. Hansen's latest statements are illustrative: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/17/china-style-dictatorship-of-climatologists/

      That said, he discovered the facts pointed him toward nuclear as a green solution, so he's not all bad.

      >>I've already mentioned that albedo geoengineering "solutions" like stratospheric aerosol injection wouldn't address ocean acidification, so I don't see why you think they'd be effective.

      Those are two different issues. It seems like it would be quite cheap and effective at reducing global temperatures (if they're found to be a problem), while not addressing the ocean acidification problem, which is another problem. Since you have /. search on tap, you should be able to find a quote from me on here that says basically this.

      >>In reality, none of the geophysicists I've met at conferences have advocated solutions that will kill people or destroy the economy

      Not outright, no. But the suggestions to move to 100% renewable would triple our current energy prices, or more. I care not a whit for your estimates of cap-and-trade - I'm talking about looking at what the price is we pay for power now, vs. what we'd pay with 100% renewable, and the impact would be quite devastating.

      I'm currently modifying my position on the issue, though. While the levelized cost of large-scale solar is around 4x the cost of natural gas production, Small-scale solar is only about 2x as expensive, and avoids a lot of the land use, transmission line and lawsuit issues that can make large-scale plants unattractive to investors.

      >>CBO estimates that households in the lowest income quintile would see an average net benefit of about $40

      Be very, very careful with your estimates. Poor families get subsidized power. Here in California, the high tier pricing has been shooting through the roof (it's up to 50c/kWH now) while baseline usage has remained flat at around 8c for the last decade or so. The PUC has been allowing PG&E to blow rates through the roof as long as they keep them low for the poor. Likewise, your estimate of only a 10% increase in cost for the rich is either wrong, or is representative of very little change being made on the CO2 front. You can look at kilowatt hour prices for renewables vs. coal and NG, and derive these numbers yourself.

      Kyoto is irreparably flawed, as anyone knows, and basically would constitute a money transfer to Eastern Europe (being paid to have the USSR collapse on their heads).

      Final point - nuclear is such an attractive technology (both from an economics and CO2 perspective) that they were banned from earning carbon credits, since they would be too effective. Nothing more needs to be said about the stupidity of our CO2 overlords, or the viability of nukes.

    16. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      ... Depending on how puckish I’m feeling, climatology could or could not be a “science”. Science is defined by empirical observations, hypothesis generation, testing, and hypothesis confirmation or falsification. Climatology doesn’t meet up to this full set of requirements to be science, so it, like a lot of other fields, fall somewhere in the middle of the science divide. ... [ShakaUVM]

      The last time you brought up this subject, I linked this similar exchange:

      ... Take the Big Bang. That takes a lot of faith to believe in a theory that has yet to actually be attempted - have we managed to run another big bang? ... [Brontosaurus]

      That's not the way science works. In science, observations are compared to predictions, which are then used to modify the theory to make new predictions. There's no fundamental distinction between science performed in a lab like chemistry and science performed through telescopes like cosmology. (Or any other discipline like paleontology, forensic science or paleoclimatology, for that matter.) [Dumb Scientist]

      But I actually like coby's version better:

      In my experience, this claim is supported by the notion that wrt to earth's climate you can not run any controlled experiments and thereby falsify any hypotheses. No complete ocean-atmosphere system in the lab = impossibility of scientific experimentation = not a science. I think the only effective and direct rebuttal of that is listing all the other sciences that whomever is making this argument would have to likewise reject. Cosmology, astonomy, geology, evolutionary biology to get started, I'm sure the list would be very long. It is unlikely that you are arguing with a serious philosopher so they are not likely to like the direction their own argument logically takes them. [coby]

      What's the root cause of this confusion?

      Unique events can and do all the time (it's a consequence of the probabilistic nature of the universe). A unique event is simply one that we haven't observed before or since. Science can't deal with unique events, which are often the most interesting things to us. All scientific studies are uncertain to different degrees; as you stated, studies in physics are probably pretty reliable. ... [ShakaUVM]

      Singular events. Science can't handle singular events very well, or not at all. ... It is fundamentally useless for knowledge about anything which cannot be reproduced ... The scientific method certainly doesn't deserve the religion-like attitude of worship Popper and many people on here seem to give it. [ShakaUVM]

      Here's a good example of coby's point: despite the fact that cosmic inflation was a unique, singular event, your comments suggest that you aren't applying your definition of

    17. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>Yeah, right. Because no one in the climate sciences has heard about Cross validation. And btw, if a model predicts the 1930's accurately and these years were not part of the sample set, that is pretty good cross validation in my book. [Someone]

      Cross validation is an important tool. You have to get your model to work with existing data, first. But the real test of a model is when compared against the real world. It's absurdly easy to match a sample set of data, either by faking it, or by setting one's parameters in a certain way, which is why all such claims of the forms "95% accurate on the sample data" are immediately discounted by anyone in the computer science community. I wrote one of the first statistical spam filters, more complex than the Bayesian filters that you'll see in almost every person's computer these days. We didn't announce our accuracy on our sample data set of spam (it was quite high), but rather how much accuracy it had going forward. All models (climate and otherwise) have to be analyzed in terms of their predictive value, not how much accuracy they get on a sample data set.

      You'd think that intelligent people would realize this, but apparently they didn't have professors with the same standards of enforcing rigor as mine did.

      >>Sadly, you kept digging:
      >>... People who say that scientists have to CREATE MULTIPLE EARTHS in order to convince them aren't really skeptics. ... [Dumb Scientist]

      Just so you know, RC.org agrees with the general statement that not having a second Earth to run experiments on is a difficulty with climatology.

      >>Here's a good example of coby's point: despite the fact that cosmic inflation was a unique, singular event, your comments suggest that you aren't applying your definition of "science" consistently

      Not at all. Science can't (and doesn't) deal with singular events very well. Testing of hypotheses is the gold standard of science. In fields like geology, where you don't have a spare Earth to test with, you encounter this problem all the time. Someone will say Yosemite valley is formed by sinking, another by erosion by rivers, another by glaciers. You can't get a satisfying answer when all the hypotheses are supported by the data in one form or another. In some cases, you get lucky and discover evidence for one theory or another (scrape marks on rocks, moraines, etc.), and sometimes you don't. So people will build models and try to argue about it using these secondary sources.

      So if it will make you feel better, we could say these sorts of fields (cosmology, climatology, geology, etc.) follow the silver standard of science - empirical observation, theory formation, and trying to come up with secondary sources to confirm or falsify the theories. But don't pretend they are as rigorous as being able to lab test a theory as in chemistry or physics.

    18. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      Oh, and I do consider transient effects to be valid experiments "going forward". I'm not convinced they show evidence the way you think they do, as the 9/11 airline shutdown (reducing contrails) was reported to have the opposite effect predicted by climate models. I could be wrong though, I think I read that in Super Freakonomics, which isn't very rigorous.

      Likewise, there have been a number of very public predictions made in the past about how bad the environment will be in the future (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager), which have tended to be proven false. I wouldn't be surprised if Al Gore is proven just as wrong with his "draw a straight line" prediction for temperatures in the future, using the 1960-1990 line as basis for extrapolation.

      Finally, I've thought a bit more about that question of if photons of light have inertia. While they do have momentum, I am more convinced now that they don't have inertia. One can define inertia as the resistance of mass to changes in velocity, right? The root cause of this classic Newtonian mechanic is the interaction of objects with the Higgs field, right? That's what grants particles inertia. But photons do not interact with the Higgs field, so they don't have inertia.

    19. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      ... the paradox that I mention is this: even if we have no global warming, the +0C result is within the band of error bars, so this counts as verification of the prediction. But a +5C change counts as invalidating the prediction. ... [ShakaUVM]

      If for some reason you decide to smooth the GCM output and sensor data at only 10 years, the error bars will be large. That's why professional climatologists usually smooth data and model output using ~20 year averages. [Dumb Scientist]

      If you'd like to engage in a gedankenexperiment, consider if predictions after 20 years had error bars from +0C to +10C. (Error bars themselves are fuzzy things, but I digress.) The same paradox applies to the notions of falsification and verification. No change verifies AGW, but a massive +20C change falsifies AGW (technically, the current-best-guess-AGW theory). [ShakaUVM]

      Huh? You quoted me and repeated "20 years" as though your statement was a response to mine. But you're talking about waiting "after 20 years" and implying that we need to perform gedankenexperiments rather than just reading the peer-reviewed literature? I haven't ever been talking about waiting 20 years. This whole time I've been talking about the applied smoothing. There's no waiting, no "after 20 years". So there's no need to make up numbers. In fact, I've already shown you the actual dependence of the error bars on the applied smoothing (or trend length- same idea.) Sadly, this isn't the first time you've ignored this point:

      ... short term trends are not useful (a point I've made repeatedly). But you can see that the longer temperature trends are going to start being useful ... [Gavin Schmidt]

      So multiple scientists have already tried to tell you that longer temperature trends have smaller error bars than shorter trends, but you're still blissfully fantasizing that the opposite is true. According to #6, you get another 5 points for using a thought experiment that contradicts the results of a widely accepted real experiment.

      Clearly, we need to review the difference between an empirical climate model and a dynamical climate model.

      An empirical climate model:

      1. Incorporates past temperature data into its sample data set, and predicts temperatures without requiring one to specify radiative forcings as the IPCC emission scenarios do.
      2. Is guaranteed to perform well over the sample data set; the real test would come with new data. Thus anyone claiming accuracy over the sample data would be laughed out of any scientific conference.

      A dynamical climate model:

      1. Doesn't incorporate past temperature data into its sample data set, instead the model describes the laws of physics.
      2. As a result, the model requires input in the form of estimated and projected radiative forcing histories which are specified in the IPCC emission scenarios.
      3. Thus, a dynamical model predicts the climate's response to changes in forcings like the sun's brightness, CO2 levels, etc. One example prediction of modern GCM's is the value of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, which has units of (degrees C) / (doubling CO2 concentration).
    20. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Second, you mentioned the “0.3C per decade” prediction from emission Scenario A, but you’ve repeatedly ignored Scenario B which Hansen himself called “more plausible” in 1988. [Dumb Scientist]

      That’s great, but I’m not talking about Hansen88, but AR1, which focuses on Scenario A. It’s possible this was done to scare politicians into action, but when one reads it, the +0.3C increase appears to be the best guess. [ShakaUVM]

      No, what you and Michaels are doing isn't "great" in any sense of the word. Again, by "summarizing" the IPCC AR1 WG1 report as though it only gave one scenario, you pulled a "Pat Michaels".

      As I've explained ad nauseum, the dynamical nature of climate models means that evaluating a GCM ensemble requires comparing projected forcings to the actual forcings. In other words, each scenario is an "if-then" statement: "If greenhouse gas concentrations rise at rate X, then temperatures will rise at rate Y." You and Michaels not only chopped off the first part of that sentence, you both presented it as the only scenario... which "coincidentally" makes it seem like scientists are discrediting themselves by making bad predictions.

      The correct approach is to open the AR1 to the Annex on page 333, and examine the rates of CO2 rise given in the top-left of figure A.3. Scenario "A" (BaU in that plot) only applies if CO2 levels exceed 400ppm by 2010, which hasn't happened. The top right graph also shows that methane rises to over 2000ppm in that scenario by 2010, and once again that hasn't happened either.

      Just like in Hansen88, AR1's scenario B is the closest match to the actual forcings. That's not really surprising, considering that Hansen was a contributing author for sections 6 and 8, table 2.2 on p52 repeatedly references Hansen88's radiative forcings and corrects a typo on p9360 of Hansen88, and chapter 3 repeatedly references Hansen88. Unsurprisingly, the emissions scenarios used in both studies seem very similar.

      I thought you'd be able to learn something from the eerie parallels between your mistake and Michaels's, but apparently I was wrong. Again.

      Unlike many other scientists, I don't think Michaels is lying because his "rebuttal" seems to indicate that he's trying to draw conclusions based entirely on each scenario's legend, and that he doesn't understand the difference between dynamical and empirical models. If he thinks that climate models are empirical, it makes sense that he wouldn't understand the reason for making three different projections. In that case

    21. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Couldn't get Falsifiability through the filter.

    22. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>For instance, suppose someone claimed that "p=hf". It's not necessary to open a textbook to debunk that claim because the left hand side has units of momentum, and the right hand side has units of "h" divided by time

      Yeah, yeah. It's E=hf, momentum is merely proportional to hf (p = hf/c). In physics, relations are the most important things to remember. In this case, momentum is proportional to frequency (times some constant - you're just quibbling over the constant).

      >>I never understood why some scientists say that philosophers of science don't understand science

      If you're going to reference a post by mine, you should probably pick out what you're disagreeing with.

      As I said in the post you're responding to here, if the temperature results moving forward can't falsify science, then climatology isn't science. This is not a flippant or trivial statement. At a certain level, science requires testable predictions to be made. If predictions have too large a range of results, they're less useful. I was pointing out the oddity that nearly no warming would be considered verification of the models (because it was included in the range of predictions), but a too hot prediction would falsify it (for being outside the range of predictions).

      There's an important difference between directly testing individual parameters (such as the change in longwave radiation reflected, based on change of CO2 levels), which are often lab testable, and the predictions of a complex model which much necessarily abstract details away, and may or may not be accurate at making predictions. (This includes both your empirical and dynamic models above.) Forward testing of the models is the only valid form of testing, and this includes dynamic models.

      If you've ever seen the games that people have played with regression models to get them to fit their data, you'll understand why. There's literally an infinite number of ways of fitting an estimator to a dataset, and while performing validation of a model by running variations in the input and comparing them against historic outputs is important and indispensable step, I won't allow you to get away with bullshit on this. I could build a dynamic model that matched the historic record precisely, and have absolutely no predictive value. That's my point.

      I am NOT saying that these models are bad. You tend to overreact to my statements, so I'm making this explicitly clear - I (generally) believe the same things you do. I've done work with Scripps before, and have seen the work that go into these things. But I've also done enough work debugging models to accept their accuracy on faith, and accuracy over historical datasets is not sufficient proof of accuracy into the future. It is a necessary but not sufficient condition.

    23. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Do you have any reputable citations showing professional climatologists engaging in groupthink or responding badly to reasoned criticism? I ask because, once again, your description of the climatology community sounds like a description of a cult... [Dumb Scientist]

      You mean like how they circled the wagons around Phil Jones, even when actual bad behavior on his part was discovered? For example: [ShakaUVM]

      “This has some similarity to the CRU email theft, where precious little was discovered from among thousands of emails, but a few sentences were plucked out of context, deliberately misinterpreted (like “hide the decline”) and then hyped into “Climategate”.” [RealClimate]

      Presumably you meant to say that scientists in general are circling wagons and responding badly to reasoned criticism.

      Or you can just read the editor’s comments left in the response sections of RC.org. Just skimming through that above article, here’s an interplay between Pielke and Stefan. [ShakaUVM]

      Coincidentally, Pielke Jr. had similar things to say about that interplay. That's the interplay where he asked a bunch of 'questions' like "Was it appropriate for the IPCC to make stuff up about my views?". Then Stefan replied:

      Clearly there are different views on this, which is why we called this graph "debatable". But let's keep things in perspective: we're discussing Supplementary Material and a response to one of those 90,000 review comments now, not even the report itself. You've been working hard to scandalize your personal quibbles with IPCC here - how consistent is this with your self-proclaimed role as "honest broker"? Stefan

      That link leads to an in-depth comment, and neither seem to constitute "responding badly to reasoned criticism." In fact, it's not clear that Pielke's rant counts as "reasoned criticism" in the first place. As far as I can tell, he's got

    24. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Couldn't get Climategate through the filter.

    25. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Finally got this comment through the filter after removing MANY of the links.

      In a field where all you really have are climate data and computer models, refusing to share them with the world is akin to a physicist claiming that he’s invented Cold Fusion, but refusing to show exactly how (except perhaps to a couple of his friends). Gavin of course defended him saying that while maybe THEIR data wasn’t available, HIS data was available, and so that made it all better. (Which it didn’t – it rather just highlighted their shady behavior). ... [ShakaUVM]

      Gavin wasn't just saying that other data was available, he was saying that CRU doesn't do any primary data collection:

      ... Claims that data has been destroyed or lost are untrue. Claims that there is no access to the raw temperature data are untrue. There is nothing in any of the CRU archives that is particularly special or noteworthy and that isn't mostly available to anyone already via NOAA. ... [Gavin Schmidt]

      ... If you want the very original hand-written records from individual stations, ask the National Met. Service in the relevant country, not the people who collate the homogenised records for use in tracking climate change. [Gavin Schmidt]

      The raw data is in the custody of the met services who originated it. CRU is just a collation, not a temperature measuring organisation. [Gavin Schmidt]

      No data has been destroyed, the original files and numbers are with the national weather services that provided them. Removing a copy of a original file because it is not useful for my purposes is not 'deleting data' [Gavin Schmidt]

      The raw data is the GHCN data (v2.mean.Z) (publicly available, as has been the case for decades). [Gavin Schmidt]

      Unsurprisingly, that's also what the reviews said:

      The Unit does virtually no primary data acquisition but has used data from published archives and has collaborated with people who have collected data. ... [Oxburgh panel, p2]

      The CRU dataset, which forms the land surface component of the HadCRUT global temperature record, was compiled with the aim of comprehensiveness. The majority of the data in it are derived from the same freely-available raw data sets used by NOAA and NASA. ... [UK House of Commons Inquiry, p13]

      Any independent researcher may freely obtain the primary station data. It is impossible for a third party to withhold access to the data. ... Regarding data availability, there is no basis for the allegations that CRU prevented access to raw data. It was impossible for them to have done so. [Muir Russell Review, p48,53]

      Somehow, you managed to twist the fact that it was impossible for CRU to prevent access to the raw data into a

    26. Re:NASA Gets Busted All The Time by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      So Phil Jones wrote "a badly phrased reply in an email that was probably written in frustrated haste", but I'm a bully for noting how he used legally questionable tactics to dodge FOIA requests?

      You post these things defending Jones, but those were from the point of view that Climategate was about scientists lying to the public, which I've emphatically said was not the case. If I wanted to put link diarrhea all over my posts, like you, this would be the perfect opportunity to do so, but given as how you've read everything I've written, you're probably well aware that I do not think Climategate was about fake scientific data or that Jones was being dishonest, scientificially, at all. The true scandal was all about him dodging FOIA requests, which (again, link diarrhea elided) he was correctly held accountable for by the boards of inquiry.

      You make it sound like they found him completely innocent.

      Thanks for reminding me about the combined data series, I'd forgotten about that. I wouldn't say it was fraud (it was combining best knowledge from two different time series), but it was a trick out of Lies, damned lies, and statistics. And yes, I "accused" RC.org of tricks from that book, because they used them.

      Also, thanks for finding the response from me. When I'd gone back to check, back in the day, they hadn't responded.

  41. Re:Utter utter rubbish by TheSeventh · · Score: 1

    I'm not endorsing anything except that action needs to be taken. But if you look at the reasons why people don't want to take ANY action, it mostly comes down to having to spend more money (better filtration systems, less air/water pollution, cleaner but more expensive power plants, etc.)

    --
    Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
  42. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Score+Whore · · Score: 1

    If we choose to do what we can to try and keep it from getting worse, and in the end all the climate scientists were wrong, what are the consequences? We spent more money than we had to?

    This is exactly right. If we swamp the world economy by the amount demanded by the AGWers then the impact on the third world from that will result in millions dying. Under no scenarios will billions die (other than the usual get old and die that everyone does.)

  43. Re:Skimpy data by dave420 · · Score: 1

    It's a lot easier to effect carbon-capture in power stations than it is to do so in cars. Regardless of whether it's man or nature that's heating the Earth, clearly it's in our best interests, and the interests of future generations, to try to do all we can at minimising it. We can't stop volcanoes from erupting, but we sure as hell can curb our emissions as a species.

  44. Re:Utter utter rubbish by geekoid · · Score: 1

    Worse then stupid. A liar and spreader of misinformation based on ignorance. I would rather deal with stupid then deal with people who not only insist on being ignorant, but insistent on making everyone ignorant.

    It's a special kind of evil.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  45. So 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009... by ShavedOrangutan · · Score: 1

    Global Cooling!!!

    --
    Godaddy is a scam and a ripoff.
  46. What would you say... by deesine · · Score: 1

    is the dollar per degree of temperature effectiveness given the state of green tech? Really, how many trillions do we have to spend to affect each .1 degree K?

    Shouldn't be too hard to calculate, given that this is science we are talking about, right?

    --
    damaged by dogma
    1. Re:What would you say... by DavidTC · · Score: 1

      Um, no, that's engineering. Or research and development. Whatever you want to call it.

      'Inventing new stuff' is not a science.

      --
      If corporations are people, aren't stockholders guilty of slavery?
  47. Re:"And it's a tragedy we can't" -- Trenberth by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

    Well here for instance is a bit of understanding for that.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDTUuckNHgc

    You have to look at the global TOTAL amount of heat. Rather than just "It's cold near me, therefore it must be cold everywhere"

  48. Re:Skimpy data by imroy · · Score: 1

    ...temperatures have not risen since 1998.

    Simply wrong.

  49. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    when we know that this is a lie, and temperatures have not risen since 1998.

    You've been claiming this for years even though it's been shown to be bullshit the entire time. Why don't you just post it again a little later. The more you post it the truer it becomes, right?

  50. Has anyone commented on this? by xrz1138 · · Score: 1

    I heard that CO2 level have been dropping for a very, very long time and look to continue to decline as carbon is sequestered at the bottom of the ocean. I ask because this is not my area of expertise, and I was hoping that someone who is more of an authority might be able to comment. The researcher whose perspective I am parroting here used Hawaii as an example, pointing out how the massive rainfall and runoff causes carbon to be washed deep into the ocean. It was enough to cause one to wonder about the future of plants! LOL! This might all be more junk science, but I thought that it was ironic. Ah well, let's have some pie.

    1. Re:Has anyone commented on this? by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      I think you've been misinformed, or are confusing the workings of the Carbonate Silicate cycle with CO2 levels.

      Heres a plot of half a million years of CO2 levels

  51. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    That looks like an upwards trend since 1979 to me. You can also see seasonal variations in it which means it's not well averaged you should ignore anything less than a couple years in duration. That 13 month moving average should be replaced with a 36 month moving average.

  52. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    What, you mean the page that says "2010 tied with 2005 for hottest year on record"? That seems to agree entirely with TFA.

  53. Of course it's going to be the wettest by tyrione · · Score: 1

    The Polar Ice packs are breaking apart and that formerly collected and frozen moisture bound in Salt and more is being recycled into the Atmosphere and Global Heat Redistribution is running amuck in it's extremes [beyond acceptable tolerance ranges of historic data] and thus one day you have floods and massive snow storms followed by massive drought in areas that normally have none of these behaviors.

  54. I'd like to talk to you by Boawk · · Score: 1

    about how you can accept Jesus into your life. oops, wrong thread. I'd like to talk to you about the (reality|deceptiveness) of climate change. Funny how both raise the hackles the same way. Why is that?

    1. Re:I'd like to talk to you by Arker · · Score: 1

      Because global warmists and fundamentalist "creation science" shills use exactly the same thought processes, and recruitment tactics.

      --
      =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
      Friends don't let friends enable ecmascript.
  55. News for nerds... I don't think so by Enter+the+Shoggoth · · Score: 2

    I keep seeing people saying that temperatures have not risen since 1998, but nobody ever cites any real data to back up that assertion. Care to step up?

    http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/06/global-temperature-trend-upate

    Both sides of this debate _outside_ of the scientific community are disturbingly simplistic. On the one hand we've got the chicken littles who blame _every_ major weather event on global warming. The flooding here in Australia is point-in-case - we are in the grip of a very strong La Nina event, climatologists might argue that it is particularly strong because of an underlying warming trend but the floods themselves are due solely to La Nina. On the other hand we have the "temperatures haven't risen since 1998 crowd", well the graph provided here shows a clear upward _trend_ in temperatures since 2000 and when you take into account the local minima and maxima (Mt. Pinatubo and El Nino) there is an obvious upwards trend over the whole graph. Come on people, this is basic high school math.

    News for nerds... I don't think so.

    --
    Andy Warhol got it right / Everybody gets the limelight
    Andy Warhol got it wrong / Fifteen minutes is too long.
  56. Sunspots are at an all-time low, as I understand by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Regardless, don't live at or especially below, sea level and it won't be a problem.

    And Global Warming means less people will freeze and there will be more places that plants can grow.

    More plants=more veggies=more food=less starvation (assuming that dictators feed their subjects...but I digress)

  57. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Artraze · · Score: 1

    > ... before even bigger catastrophes occur?

    Bigger than what, exactly? Given that all the gloom and doom predictions haven't come true, I don't see where one could even argue that any of the big weather things that have happened are related to GW. And once you consider major historical events, there's nothing there.

    > If they're wrong, Millions or Billions of people die.

    Whoa there... Millions or billions, really? That's three orders of magnitude there, and a significant three at that. "Millions" (about 2) die every _month_, and billions? There are only 7 billion people on the planet, so that would be pretty much the apocalypse I guess.

    And while I'm calling you on this vague emotional threat, what's the time scale here exactly? Is there just going to be a giant tidal wave that kills everyone instantly, or is it going to happen over the next hundred years? Which brings me to my real point:

    > Whether it's our fault or not, greenhouse-gas caused or not, doesn't matter as much. The more
    > important question is, can we do something about it...

    O rly? Paraphrased: It doesn't matter what is happening or why, we just have to stop it.

    How, exactly, do you propose we stop it then, if it doesn't matter what's causing it? I mean, are you proposing that we install giant air conditioners, or are you really just spouting BS and hope that some people will support draconian actions taken in the name of stopping it? It's "think of the children" all over again, it seems.

    So, here's a thought. How about we actually approach this like a real problem, and not just some vague cause to fight for. The problem is complicated: For one, the world getting hotter _isn't_ a problem; it's the effects of it that are.

    And then, you have to evaluate the effectiveness of your solution. If human created green house gases are contributing 10% of the warming effect, and the ocean levels will rise 1 m in 100 years, is humanity cutting emissions by half (which would be rather devastating), worth prolonging the 1m rise by 5 years? Answer: no

    And this is why I have global warming: There is no real analysis. It's just this "don't ask why, but if you don't agree with me billions will die" crap over and over. And every time I look at the figures, even the worst case ones (though based in reality), I just can't help but find it to be anything but a minor detail that can be solved in due time.

  58. Re:Utter utter rubbish by liquiddark · · Score: 1

    Have you maybe read the huge reams of scientific research that have been published over the course of the last fifty years or so on the topic? That's a pretty good way to get convinced.

  59. No, it couldn't by DeadCatX2 · · Score: 2

    http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf

    Page 244

    (warning: the pdf is 24 MB, so it takes a significant amount of time to download)

    Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban-related trend is an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time-scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999). This result could partly be attributed to the omission from the gridded data set of a small number of sites (1%) with clear urban-related warming trends. In a worldwide set of about 270 stations, Parker (2004, 2006) noted that warming trends in night minimum temperatures over the period 1950 to 2000 were not enhanced on calm nights, which would be the time most likely to be affected by urban warming. Thus, the global land warming trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing urbanisation (Parker, 2006). ... Accordingly, this assessment adds the same level of urban warming uncertainty as in the TAR: 0.006C per decade since 1900 for land, and 0.002C per decade since 1900 for blended land with ocean, as ocean UHI is zero.

    --
    :(){ :|:& };:
    1. Re:No, it couldn't by andoman2000 · · Score: 0

      I'm still calling BS on this, pavement holds heat and the thermodynamics of it are simple if you'd like me to do all of the calcs for you. It's been proven time and time again that these people twist data to conform to whatever they want, and if you'd like proof look at the ethanol scandal, that even lord gore has admitted to.

    2. Re:No, it couldn't by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      You missed something in your last sentence.

      --
      Interesting.
    3. Re:No, it couldn't by DeadCatX2 · · Score: 1

      Go ahead, call BS.

      In fact, why don't you publish a paper? And get it peer-reviewed? Then, you can become famous for showing that climate scientists are getting it all wrong.

      Although I must admit there is a certain irony in using "pavement holds heat" as part of an argument against global warming.

      --
      :(){ :|:& };:
  60. What Other Conditions Affect Local Collection Data by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 1
    --
    "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
    Never been known to fail..."
  61. Re:Utter utter rubbish by englishknnigits · · Score: 1

    You are confusing "Humans have had an undeniable impact on the global environment" with "global temperature averages [are] on the increase...[and] it's all our fault". It's like saying we know that people are killing plants by walking on them so we can safely assume that massive deforestation is due to people walking on plants. It completely ignores magnitude and uses a general concept of "we have an effect on the environment" to infer a claim "we cause all/most current global warming".

  62. Re:Skimpy data by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

    By all means.

    That's UAH. That's not ground temperature data. That's atmosphere temperature data.

    1998 in particular had a rather strong El Nino that year. And aside from having a large impact on ground temperature data, it had a huge effect on atmospheric temperature.

    Despite that, El Nino events only last a fews months at a time. So trying to drag them out into some decades long "trend" would be the height of naivety or malevolence.

    And considering the author of that graph is trying to make it look as flat as possible, seems they are trying to be "intentionally misleading" to me.

    _

    Or I guess one might be talking about the slight difference between GISS and HadCRU for that year. (But that's not the case this year)

  63. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 2

    Is the cause is man made? (Consider volcanoes as a major CO2 source, sun energy output, etc)

    Yes. That it is predominantly man made has been conclusively shown.

    Is the change significant?

    Yes it is, and will be getting even more significant as time progresses.

    Is the change preventable? (this is related to environmental factors that we have little control over, such as sun energy output)

    Theoretically, yes. It is even economically feasible to do so. But I highly doubt that humanity has the collective brains to do anything about it. So no, the future changes will not be prevented. When things get bad enough, humanity will start doing stupid and dangerous things to try to repair the damage.

    What major sources of energy can we make available to replace oil and coal? One way or another, we have to answer this question eventually. Remember that we use close to the energy that the sun delivers to the Earth, so the combination of solar, hydro, bio fuel, and other sun energy sources will not be enough.

    What? Someone is giving you bad information. Incoming solar radiation (correcting for cloud losses) is 2.8 Million exajoules per year. Current human consumption is 484 exajoules per year, or about 0.017% of the solar input. So solar, wind, wave, hydroelectric, geothermal, bio, and nuclear will be fine.

  64. Re:Utter utter rubbish by pilgrim23 · · Score: 1

    Well since humans are not natural, did not evolve here, were placed her by a (fill in myth du jours), it is only proper that we slaughter a zillion of us, then place the rest in peasantry under the Climate Lords. Excuse me...is that a glacier bearing down on the eco green house?

    --
    - Minutus cantorum, minutus balorum, minutus carborata descendum pantorum.
  65. have they moved the monitoring stations yet by night_flyer · · Score: 1

    or are they still taking reading off of stations that are too close to AC vents, blacktop parking lots or similar things that would alter the temperature readings?

    http://en.wordpress.com/tag/weather_stations/

    --


    Thanks to file sharing, I purchase more CDs
    Thanks to the RIAA, I buy them used...
    1. Re:have they moved the monitoring stations yet by blueg3 · · Score: 2

      You can actually remove every weather station that has been claimed to be faulty for the above reason without significantly changing your results.

    2. Re:have they moved the monitoring stations yet by Arlet · · Score: 2

      If you look at the maps, you'll notice most of the recent warming was not near those areas.

      Here you can play with the data:

      http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

      For instance, if you choose Jan-Dec 2010, you'll see that Europe was on the cool side, the USA was only slight warmer, and that there are big red areas where nobody lives.

    3. Re:have they moved the monitoring stations yet by Grizzley9 · · Score: 1

      You can actually remove every weather station that has been claimed to be faulty for the above reason without significantly changing your results.

      [citation needed]

  66. Re:Skimpy data by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

    Would you mind cutting it out with those science-free strawman arguments?

    And I know exactly where you got them from, since that volcano bit is unique to that science-free documentrary.

    Cliffnotes debunk
    http://greyfalcon.net/swindle3

    Cross referenced list debunk
    http://greyfalcon.net/climate

    Line by line debunk (If you are some sort of sadist for detail)
    http://greyfalcon.net/swindle

  67. Time for a reality check by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The Earth, dear old Terra, is around 4 billion years old. That is about 114,000 times older than modern humans. If one were to scale that time to an average human lifetime, modern humans have been around for the last 5 days of the Terra's life.

    People looking at the last 100, 1,000 or even 100,000 years of climate aren't looking at a statistically significant sample of data. When one gets a statistically significant amount of data, one sees that we are living in a remarkably stable period and for most Terra's history, there have been massive climate changes.

    What people are really saying is that they want things to continue on in a way favorable for themselves. The simple fact is that while climate change might kill off a lot of species including humans, but it won't end all life, let alone destroy the Earth.

    There will life here again. It just won't be you and that pisses you off. This entire thing is about the over-sized collective ego of the human race.

    --
    There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    1. Re:Time for a reality check by tyrione · · Score: 1

      The Earth will survive long after we've died off. The climate will adapt. It's not about whether the Earth will survive. It's our survival and the current biological life on the planet that is in question.

    2. Re:Time for a reality check by element-o.p. · · Score: 2

      Meh. Considering that I tend to be particularly attached to the human race -- and especially attached to a few of it's six or seven billion members -- then I'd tend to agree with those who say that anything likely to kill off all, or even a sizable portion, of the human race is a Pretty Bad Thing. YMMV.

      --
      MCSE? No, sir...I don't do Windows. Yes, I am an idealist. What's your point?
    3. Re:Time for a reality check by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People looking at the last 100, 1,000 or even 100,000 years of climate aren't looking at a statistically significant sample of data.

      "Statistically significant" doesn't mean that your sample is a particular proportion of the total population, so your argument here is bunk. To reach statistical significance, you just need a large enough sample that the combined error across your sample is smaller than what you're trying to measure.

    4. Re:Time for a reality check by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Earth is sick and is running a fever trying to kill off the human infestation.
      Just Kidding. Tim S.

    5. Re:Time for a reality check by blueg3 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Aside from your incorrect comments about statistical significance and the insinuation that scientists aren't fully aware that they're studying a system with a very long history...

      Yes, nobody thinks we'll push the world into a state that is entirely anathema to it. It's simply that we're pushing the world into a state different from that we find particularly convenient and have come to depend on. Considering that it is humans that like the climatological state and also humans changing it, I don't think you can call it particularly egotistical.

    6. Re:Time for a reality check by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      What people are really saying is that they want things to continue on in a way favorable for themselves. The simple fact is that while climate change might kill off a lot of species including humans

      Strangely, this is somehow all I really care about.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    7. Re:Time for a reality check by buback · · Score: 1

      You are totally ridiculous.
      for a large portion of the last 4 billion years earth was a large molten rock. At that time scale, we live in a rather changeable time as far as climate goes.

      And, frankly, in a couple hundred years i don't expect humans to have much interest in earth anymore, or in biological bodies. but i would like to leave earth suitable for the dolphins or gorillas or lizardmen who will supplant us as dominant species.

    8. Re:Time for a reality check by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cool. You don't care. Fine.
      Just shut the fuck up and get the fuck out of my way, while I do everything in my power to make sure _your_ kids survive.

      You wimp.

      - Anonymous "Coward"

    9. Re:Time for a reality check by mr_gorkajuice · · Score: 2

      "Don't worry! It's only YOU and everyone you care about that's going to die! It's not the fishes, the bears and the wolfes! Don't worry!"

    10. Re:Time for a reality check by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      Actually, it is most people, many animals including bears and wolves, and many fishes.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    11. Re:Time for a reality check by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Then stop talking like it. And, your so-called scientists are NOT looking at the very long history. They are looking at a short bit of history and making pronouncements they claim to be fact which it is not.

      No, I am not going to worship at the alter of the religion of climate change. I want real science, not pseudoscience.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    12. Re:Time for a reality check by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2

      If you care about that, then you should be working to reduce the human population by at least half.

      But, I don't see you or anyone doing that.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    13. Re:Time for a reality check by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      No, it wasn't. Go read a book and learn something.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    14. Re:Time for a reality check by DavidTC · · Score: 1

      The joke is, they're probably going to die too. Massive changes like this wipe out huge sections of life.

      Sure, some life make it, and that life eventually re-expands to cover the world, including evolving into new species if needed.

      But that doesn't change the fact it's not only people at risk. In fact, it's not really 'people' at risk at all. We are so adaptable, we already live in so many niches and have so many different supplies of food, that it's pretty damn good odds we'll make it through this.

      Sadly, we'll make it thought this like other life will...by having 80% of us die off, and the other 20% eventually adapting and filling back up the earth.

      I don't like that plan.

      I, and the rest of the US, shouldn't like that plan for entirely selfish reasons...the US is pretty homogeneous in food and diet and midrange in climate and a lot of stuff is balanced on the knife's edge. The US is going to one of the worse hard hit by any variations.

      Hell, apparently we now get repeated snowstorms here in Georgia, which has totally blown up our universe. We can't deal with snow! What's going to happen when the US has snap cold wipe out corn or something?

      --
      If corporations are people, aren't stockholders guilty of slavery?
    15. Re:Time for a reality check by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Ya, actually, I'm not convinced your idea (that the human population needs to be cut in half to be sustainable) is any good. Apparently most other people aren't either, or nobody according to your assessment.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    16. Re:Time for a reality check by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      You have real science. Read the IPCC report. They are using a very long bit of history with proxy data.

      Also, if you're going to repeat tired phrases like "worship at the altar of the religion of climate change", at least get it right.

      As I've said elsewhere, why do you think the Hadean Eon (or even much of the Precambian) matters to current climate? Most geologists estimate the temperature was 230 C. Which, you must love saying, was the hottest year on record :P

      --
      Interesting.
  68. Re:Utter utter rubbish by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

    Hippie eukaryote lover! We should never believe you!

    --
    Interesting.
  69. Re:Utter utter rubbish by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

    Maybe the whole strategy of explaining was wrong. Instead of telling the scientific facts, they should have claimed: "God doesn't want us to burn so much fossil fuel. If we don't stop, He will send us a new flood." Make up an "explanation" from the bible. Find a charismatic person to tell that, and you might get enough followers to make a difference. :-)

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  70. old by gomatt · · Score: 2

    the earth is 4,500,000,000 years old. We have only been keeping track for 100 years of that, or 0.00000002% of the time! Warmest year on record, please....... who cares, just live and wonder why. damn....

    1. Re:old by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      The warmest year was obviously during the Hadean Eon. However, it is also obviously not relevant. At all.

      --
      Interesting.
    2. Re:old by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My car didn't start this morning. I was really miffed and just about to call service, when I realised that at one point in its history, my car didn't even have an engine. My car's immobility is thus nothing unusual or out of the ordinary and requires no special attention.

  71. We're screwed by scurvyj · · Score: 0

    I don't think we can get rid of all the idiots in our governments in time to save ourselves.

    And I used to NOT be a doomsayer, I was sure we'd get through this.

    But we are watching a (an almost beautifully classic) chaotic system do what chaotic systems - those with strange attractors - do.

    Temperature rise, acidic oceans, warm oceans powering giant storms, upset ocean currents causing droughts here and floods/freezes there, melting sea ice introducing more liquid water into the system, melting land ice slowly raising ocean levels - these are all parameters. In a chaotic system, one never knows when the right (wrong) parameter will be pushed just that bit too far and the system will jump to a new stable attractor. One we probably won't like.

    1. Re:We're screwed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One we probably won't like.

      Anthropologists and geologists have credible evidence that climate has severely tripped up our species multiple times. Your birth did not somehow obviate the possibility. Don't like it? Find a 'better' planet; Al Gore can't 'fix' it no matter what he thinks or you believe.

      Global warming anxiety is an indulgence of the wealthy.

  72. Re:Skimpy data by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

    For instance

    Atmospheric temperature records
    http://greyfalcon.net/rsstemps2.png

    Surface temperature records
    http://greyfalcon.net/globaltemps.png

    All the temperature records compared.
    http://greyfalcon.net/forcing2.png

    But I guess if you want to play games with surface temperatures. HadCRU said 1998 was warmer than 2005, by the tiniest fraction. GISS said 2005 was warmer than 1998 by the tiniest fraction.

    Either way, 2010 is basically tied for the hottest it's ever been this past iceage.

  73. Re:Utter utter rubbish by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

    Everyone says that being more green or what have you would utterly destroy the world economy, sending us into a terrible depression, sky afire, cats and dogs getting along; have you seen any numbers... you know, anywhere, from any side?

    The most reasonable I've heard is 1% of global wealth spent on environmental activities (mostly shouldered by wealth countries, so (0.01 / 0.90) * national GDP for wealthy countries). I'm no economist, but if 1% of the world's wealth suddenly vanished, would the economy spiral downward and destroy modern civilization?

    Example. Compare the U.S. Iraq War (Operation Enduring Freedom), estimated at $1.9 trillion (admittedly, over several years), compared to the current estimate of world GDP, ~$58 trillion.

    --
    Interesting.
  74. Sounds good to me. by mosb1000 · · Score: 1

    I like warm weather. I like water. Sounds like a win-win situation.

    1. Re:Sounds good to me. by eriqk · · Score: 1

      I like warm weather. I like water. Sounds like a win-win situation.

      Sure. Then again, maybe not.

  75. Re:Skimpy data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wow. It takes balls to post a link whose primary support is a statement from the UK MET Office.

    Yeah, they're really trustworthy.

  76. Measurement error by arbie · · Score: 2

    No doubt its been getting warmer for the past 200 years. But, as an engineer, I question our ability to measure average global surface temperature to +/- 0.07 C. Such a measurement system would be an amazing engineering accomplishment. I don't question that the temperature anomaly for 2010 was 0.62, what I question is the asserted measurement error of +/- 0.07. I would accept a number of something like 0.62 +/- 0.50 with only a bit of skepticism. At +/- 0.25 my BS detector goes off. At +/-0.07 my rolling-on-the-floor-laughing-that-people-could-be-so-gullible reaction takes over.

    1. Re:Measurement error by maxwell+demon · · Score: 2

      They were averaging over many measurement values. Maybe you read up about error propagation again and consider what happens for an average of about 1000 values.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    2. Re:Measurement error by night_flyer · · Score: 1

      some of which were placed next to AC vents, blacktop parking lots and other heat reflecting items

      --


      Thanks to file sharing, I purchase more CDs
      Thanks to the RIAA, I buy them used...
    3. Re:Measurement error by arbie · · Score: 1

      The errors in the individual measurements are not normally distributed because of UHI bias. And, Michael Mann, of all people, is now arguing that the temperature record is a *non-stationary* process (that's how he's now justifying his defective end-point padding)! So, if you accept that as true, then OLS regression is misspecified. Sorry, your grade school statistics won't work here. The error bars are immense.

    4. Re:Measurement error by TofuDog · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure the satellite sensors and ocean buoys that say the same thing were not next to the AC vent or parking lots. Do you you suppose your source might be choosing anecdotal examples?

    5. Re:Measurement error by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      And of course you know that none of them were placed in locations that would cause them to measure a lower temperature.

    6. Re:Measurement error by Arlet · · Score: 1

      Note that we aren't measuring (absolute) global surface temperature at all. What NASA is measuring is the temperature anomaly. The anomaly is the difference between the actual temperature, and the average of 1951-1980 for that same station. These anomalies are measured independently for each measuring station. The next step is to average all the anomalies, and this reduces the error quite a bit. The reason is that the anomalies for stations hundreds of miles apart are very well correlated, even though their absolute temperature could differ by tens of degrees.

    7. Re:Measurement error by arbie · · Score: 1

      The Common Anomalies Method (CAM) requires that only those base stations that were present during the common base period be used when averaging the anomalies. Since this would be overly restrictive, the common practice at GISTemp is to apply manual estimated TOBS and MMTS adjustments as a way of artificially extending the series or infilling missing data. The method that GISTemp uses for making these adjustments is opaque and not adequately disclosed. But in all cases, such adjustments reintroduce (and perhaps amplify) errors that CAM was supposed to eliminate. Its Kabuki theater designed to create the appearance of science. Face it, there is no magically method for taking an ad hoc network of uncalibrated, poorly sited thermometers (whose location is constantly changing) of differing and changing technologies whose data was collected by random, untrained people at random and uncontrolled time of day and convert that into a global anomaly series capable of discerning temperature differences of 0.07C.

    8. Re:Measurement error by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      and consider what happens for an average of about 1000 values.
      All depends on the TYPE of error. IIRC if it's an unweighted average and the errors are random unocorrelated and normally distributed you reduce your error by a factor of 1000.

      But if those conditions don't hold it could be much higher! Afaict many people learn basic error analysis but forget about or ignore the underlying assumptions.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
  77. Re:"And it's a tragedy we can't" -- Trenberth by shermo · · Score: 1

    Yeah anyone who does that must be stupid!

    --
    Insanity: voting in the same two parties over and over again and expecting different results
  78. Re:Skimpy data by Score+Whore · · Score: 1

    I may be confused, but the page that I linked to does have the string "2005" anywhere on it. The title is "NOAA: 2010 Tied with 1998 as Warmest Global Temperature on Record".

    Regardless, my response was to provide a source that says 1998 is as hot as it's been (which is debatable since Hansen keeps manually adjusting the data until it supports his narrative.)

    Now, where on the page I linked to does it say anything about 2005? My guess is you're arguing in bad faith.

  79. periodicity? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I only live 80 years, so I don't really care about 400, 11,000, or 400,000. It's getting warmer. It's affecting things. This is bad.

    You're saying that it will eventually swing back to cold... in a few hundred to thousand years. Well, I guess I'll just wait it out then....

    Look, everyone... We all have "that friend who says X". Ya know what? People form their opinions first, then find data to support it. Meanwhile, it's getting warmer. This is rather undeniable.

  80. Re:Skimpy data by Score+Whore · · Score: 1

    ...does not have the string "2005"...

  81. Re:Utter utter rubbish by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    That's not how our effect on global warming was determined, so you building a straw man. I believe that the latest CO2 balance calculations indicate that we are responsible for at least 80% of the change in CO2 since preindustrial times is man made. (Although I'm not finding it on line right now, maybe because my subscription to Science has expired.) Analysis of recent data indicates higher percentages in the 20th century. So we're causing the CO2 increase. The CO2 increase is causing the warming. Ergo, we're causing the warming.

  82. Rejoice the Ice Age has ended! by enterprisearchitect · · Score: 0

    Oh wait. I guess we said it ended sooner.. Well, at least we can celebrate for our ancestors that had to suffered through the coldest years, not recorded with a thermometer. At least we will have more drinking water, thank you evaporation.

  83. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Frankly you'd have to be a special kind of stupid to claim that global temperature averages aren't on the increase.

    It is about scale and perspective. Statements like yours indicate a lack of such. See here.

  84. Ice Age Averted! by Rinnon · · Score: 1

    Seriously, aren't we overdue for an Ice Age? Maybe we've indirectly saved ourselves from thousands of years of frozen tundra!

  85. Alternate scenario by Alaska+Jack · · Score: 1

    This is one scenario. Here's another.

    1. pine beetles (highly specialized insects that prey on one species of tree) attack pine trees (to be more accurate, they attack the species of conifer that they specialize in).

    2. Many pine trees die

    3. Another species of tree moves in to take their place. The ecosystem adjusts.

        - aj

    1. Re:Alternate scenario by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      "...ponderosa, lodgepole, Scotch and limber pine trees"

      I live near some of these areas. Driving through the mountains doesn't look like some trees are dead. It looks like a forest fire (from wiki; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Yoho_National_Park_of_Canada.jpg, and some places look much worse), or they're all red (under extreme stress and will die soon).

      --
      Interesting.
    2. Re:Alternate scenario by pspahn · · Score: 5, Informative

      Sure, that's totally fair in an ideal world; however, the forests have developed a mono-culture because of all the fire suppression that has been going on for decades.

      The forests were already over-crowded and unhealthy. The current pine beetle outbreak (which mostly affects lodgepole pines, but can also hit pinon, and a few others) is so devastating because of this.

      In the past, outbreaks would be limited by a hard freeze in the winter which killed all the beetles and limited their range. Also, naturally healthy and diverse forests limited the scope of devastation. Today we have forests that are composed almost entirely of a single species in many places and the trees are all roughly the same age and present a similar amount of susceptibility.

      Once the beetles have taken every last tree, the ability for the forest to replenish itself will be hindered by the fact that there is very little other plant life around to protect the soil. Unprotected soil leads to more violent snow melt runoff, erosion, water contamination, etc. The forest will have a much more difficult time replenishing itself.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    3. Re:Alternate scenario by pspahn · · Score: 1

      I meant to say lodgepole and ponderosa, not pinon. Pinon are affected, but at least around here, the pinon tend to be pretty sturdy and live in healthier environments where they aren't prematurely stressed from stuff like overcrowding. Same with bristlecone.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    4. Re:Alternate scenario by feepness · · Score: 1

      Sure, that's totally fair in an ideal world; however, the forests have developed a mono-culture because of all the fire suppression that has been going on for decades.

      So, because of our short-sighted status-quo environmental management, we need to engage in status-quo environmental management?

    5. Re:Alternate scenario by DavidTC · · Score: 1

      Yes, and millions of humans have no water to drink for decades while that happens. And no water to grow crops.

      Stop pointing out obvious shit. We know climate change won't destroy the planet, you morons who think you're so clever pointing that out.

      It's just going to kill us

      --
      If corporations are people, aren't stockholders guilty of slavery?
  86. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    Sorry, I meant to post 1998, but other than that it is in full agreement with TFA. The 1998 had a strong El Nino event, so atmospheric temperatures are higher in this data than in the NASA data. So you could say 2010 is tied with 2005 and 1998. In any rate the trend has definitely been upward since 1998.

  87. The sun is not getting cooler by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The sun did not dramatically decrease the amount of heat it sends toward the earth. The sun's heat output is remarkably constant. What has been happening is a lack of sunspots. Because that corresponds with a change in the sun's magnetic field, the amount of gamma rays reaching the earth has changed. That, in turn, changes the clouds which influences the earth's temperature. It is complicated but Piers Corbyn has pointed out that the conditions now wrt to the sun's activity and the phase of the moon are the same as they were 132 years ago and the weather is remarkably similar.

    Something has been happening with the sun and it might (or might not) be influencing the earth's climate, but the sun isn't significantly cooler.

  88. Re:Utter utter rubbish by SETIGuy · · Score: 2

    Well it's pretty clear that wealthy people are normal human beings and wouldn't spend a dollar to save the life of someone they don't know or, even worse, someone who hasn't been born yet. Money and who has it, that's all the argument has ever been about.

  89. OMG by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    WE'RE GONNA ALL DIE!!!!111 WAH!

    Vote Democrat to stop global warming...

  90. Re:Utter utter rubbish by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    Yep, a very special kind of stupid. And then they post graphs they don't even understand.

  91. In other words... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Please, Mister Obama, give us back our budget."

  92. Re:What Other Conditions Affect Local Collection D by GreyFlcn · · Score: 1

    Strange how all those temperature records, despite very slight variations, are all in agreement.
    http://greyfalcon.net/forcing2.png

    Almost as if there was only 1 version of reality. (Or some worldwide CONSPIRACY!!!1)
    http://greyfalcon.net/ideology.png

  93. Re:Utter utter rubbish by lp_bugman · · Score: 1

    If/when this happens surely few prophets will pop out; denouncing our evil ways and enforcing a less technological age...

    --
    BSD licensed software can't be stolen....
  94. The climate change won't directly kill people. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But when people start migrating to new places to avoid the rising waters, or to find new farm land because their old farm land is now a desert, what do you think the people already living there are going to do?

    There will be wars and genocide that make WW1 and WW2 look tame.

  95. Oy vey! by Arker · · Score: 4, Informative

    I can only assume you are referring to the "hide the decline" comments in the stolen emails, regarding the substitution of more reliable thermometer data for less reliable tree ring temperature proxy data. It seems that an unfortunately phrased text snippet can outweigh a strong body of rigorous observation and logical argument.

    That's an extremely dishonest way to describe it. You make it sound like they threw out the less reliable data set and kept the good one, wow! what a great idea huh?!?!

    In fact they used that tree ring data without caveat for most of the chart, then silently omitted it near the end of the sequence, substituting data from the other set only for those years where the data from the first set didnt fit their hypothesis. Then they labeled the chart so it looked like a single, reliable data set produced the whole sequence, and presented it to the world as such.

    Posts like yours show a disturbingly casual disregard for any semblance of truth.

    I find this line deliciously ironic. Perhaps you are not acquainted with the phenomenon of psychological projection?

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    1. Re:Oy vey! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      You make it sound like they threw out the less reliable data set and kept the good one

      Well yes that's in fact what they did. The problem is deciding how much of the less reliable data to throw out. Upon discovering that a (small) number of trees displayed anomalous results in the 1960s, they could have i) decided there was something wrong (eg. chemical treatment) with these particular trees and excluded these trees only. ii) decide that a small number of anomalous trees invalidated dendrochronology and throw out all tree-ring data or iii) excluded that data from the years which included the anomalous tree ring data given that the instrumental record rendered it unnecessary anyway. The first would have been cherry picking and the second deliberately blinding oneself. Sensibly they chose the last option.

      In fact they used that tree ring data without caveat for most of the chart, then silently omitted it near the end of the sequence

      That is an outright LIE. There is nothing silent or secret about this. The problem encountered and the method used to deal with it was discussed in the original 1998 Mann et al. paper in Nature.

      Now I don't think that you are suffering from projection. You are simply easily duped.

    2. Re:Oy vey! by Iburnaga · · Score: 1

      I hate to be the one to say this but citation needed.

      --
      iburnaga.blogspot.com
    3. Re:Oy vey! by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

      Well yes that's in fact what they did. The problem is deciding how much of the less reliable data to throw out. Upon discovering that a (small) number of trees displayed anomalous results in the 1960s, they could have i) decided there was something wrong (eg. chemical treatment) with these particular trees and excluded these trees only. ii) decide that a small number of anomalous trees invalidated dendrochronology and throw out all tree-ring data or iii) excluded that data from the years which included the anomalous tree ring data given that the instrumental record rendered it unnecessary anyway. The first would have been cherry picking and the second deliberately blinding oneself. Sensibly they chose the last option.

      That this post has a zero score and its parent is marked as score 5 seems to indicate the perversity of the moderation here. It seems that it is good enough here to appear to be correct, to speak with a tone of righteous indignation, without actually giving a valid argument. Black is white and 2+2=5. The above quotation hits the nail on the head. If your goal is to reconstruct temperatures, then it makes sense to use the best data available; if a few tree ring measurements show a temperature decline while a widespread calibrated temperature monitoring system says temperatures rose, I'll take the thermometer measurements. Shame on Arker (91948) for being either willfully ignorant, logically impaired, or extremely gullible.

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    4. Re:Oy vey! by Arker · · Score: 1, Insightful

      they could have i) decided there was something wrong (eg. chemical treatment) with these particular trees and excluded these trees only. ii) decide that a small number of anomalous trees invalidated dendrochronology and throw out all tree-ring data or iii) excluded that data from the years which included the anomalous tree ring data given that the instrumental record rendered it unnecessary anyway.

      For religious functionaries, sure, the options would be something like that. Just 'decide' what dogma is correct, throw out whatever doesnt fit, and go with it - that's what priests do.

      Science, however, doesnt work like that. If you start by arbitrarily picking out 3 hypothesis (from the essentially infinite number possible) and then proceed to simply 'decide' which one to go with, you absolutely are not doing science.

      Your "i)" - Chemical treatments result in anomalous readings for specific samples? That's a testable hypothesis. Go test it. Dont just 'decide' you like it without proof. Don't just "hide" the data because you "decided" in your head that it had to be that. You go get the data and you test your hypothesis and you dont jump to any conclusions without testing it.

      Your "ii)" - This is patent nonsense. Dendrochronology is in no danger here - only the mass of additional assumptions that were piled on top of it in order to use tree-ring sequences as temperature proxies. Clearly somewhere in those assumptions there is some error. Your "i)" is one possibility, but not the only one by any means.

      Whenever you invent a new instrument the first thing you have to do is, check it for accuracy. And not just in a perfunctory manner, but thoroughly. And with the instrument in question (using tree-ring records as a proxy for real temperatures) it's immediately apparent that the data can be analysed in two sets. The vast majority of it is very, very difficult to check for accuracy, for lack of a more reliable record from those times to compare it to. Only at the very late end of these sequences is there another source of data which is arguably reliable enough to serve as a validation of the technique. Ok, fine, validate it against those figures, it's less than ideal but once we see it matches there, we at least have some reason to presume it accurate all the way back. Only when it's checked it doesnt validate against that data after all!

      And their response is your "iii)" - just throw out the data that doesnt fit the hypothesis. "The instrumental data rendered it unecessary anyway." Unecessary for what? For scaring the bejesus out of the population and rallying political support for the measures these so-called researchers support? Well, sure. But if the goal instead were to actually generate valid scientific data then that part of the sequence is not "unecessary" in fact it's crucial, it's the most important part!

      You can keep spinning like a top till you get dizzy and fall down, the fact remains that when these people ran into data that didnt fit their conclusion, their response was to "hide" it, not to investigate. Their credibility as scientists died the moment that came out. It's truly sad that so many of us these days are so scientifically illiterate that people continue to pay any attention to their pronouncements.

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    5. Re:Oy vey! by AlterEager · · Score: 1

      In fact they used that tree ring data without caveat for most of the chart, then silently omitted it near the end of the sequence, substituting data from the other set only for those years where the data from the first set didnt fit their hypothesis. Then they labeled the chart so it looked like a single, reliable data set produced the whole sequence, and presented it to the world as such.

      Which chart would that be? Where was it published?

    6. Re:Oy vey! by srmalloy · · Score: 1

      For religious functionaries, sure, the options would be something like that. Just 'decide' what dogma is correct, throw out whatever doesnt fit, and go with it - that's what priests do.

      With the way the issue has turned into a religious war, I'm reminded of an old Gahan Wilson cartoon of a man brought before an inquisition, parodying the original caption as "You are charged with preaching wrongful, pernicious, and misleading doctrine about global climate change." (the original was 'weight loss')

    7. Re:Oy vey! by phlinn · · Score: 1

      Option 2 would have been the intellectually honest option. When you repeat an experiment (i.e. get more data) and it contradicts the first, you don't assume the first was correct just because it's inconvenient to throw out all the conclusions you based on it in the first place.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    8. Re:Oy vey! by Arker · · Score: 1

      I am honestly horrified by the degree to which 'scientism' (by which I mean religious awe of those identified as 'scientists' and unquestioning faith in whatever doctrine they promulgate) seems to be crowding out even the most fundamental sorts of scientific thinking, to the degree that when you say 'science' the listener very often does not have any appropriate associations for the word at all. There is no real concept of scientific method, experimentalism, rigorous hypothesis testing - none of that registers at all on many people. Instead when you say science they equate this with having the same sort of blind, unquestioning faith in what someone wearing a lab coat says that an earlier generation would have shown to the opinions of the guy with the funny hat and reversed collar. They dont understand you at all when you point out that most people who wear those white coats arent scientists, but technicians - they imagine the difference to be something like the difference between a priest and a bishop. They havent caught up to the 21st century, or the 20th, or the 19th... they simply continue the same old stone age thinking with reverence transferred to a new and improved priesthood.

      However flattering it is for the guys wearing the lab coats, they, at least, should know better, and have a duty to understand that this is nonsense and to correct it. Too often they seem instead to become accustomed to it and really start acting, and thinking, like a priesthood instead. But real science doesnt happen within the confines of orthodoxy, and cannot exist in the realm of dogma. Skepticism is the root of all scientific knowledge, not faith. I really worry that we as a collective whole are sliding backwards into a new dark age as a result.

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    9. Re:Oy vey! by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

      Good points on the psychological implications of the word science.

      I'd like to make a point on another word, "skepticism". Healthy skepticism is good, encourages critical thinking. Unbridled skepticism bordering on conspiracy of everything around you leads to paranoia and delusion, not scientific knowledge.

      Somehow, like most things in life, the truth is in the middle. :)

      --
      Interesting.
    10. Re:Oy vey! by Arker · · Score: 1

      The main problem with all the conspiracy theorists is they arent skeptical enough, of their own theories that is.

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    11. Re:Oy vey! by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      Well yes that's in fact what they did. The problem is deciding how much of the less reliable data to throw out.
      The real problem is decisions on what is an isn't anomalous make it very easy to cherry pick data to show the result you want by only going after problems if they work against your hypothesis and very difficult for an outsider to tell if that was indeed the motivation for selecting what problems to go after.

      And afaict trying to estimate an average temperature of the earth for some particular time in the past is full of descisions on what data to reject as anomolous and of the remaining data how to apply weighting.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
  96. Except, 10 years ago by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the same "climatologists" predicted that snow will become extremely rare and children would need to be taught about it so that they understand its cultural importance, all those old pictures of people skiing, skating, etc.:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

    "Climate scientists" and journalists who listen to them must be "stupid people".

    And I clearly remember when it was called "Global Warming", not "Global Climate Change", thank you very much :)

  97. Re:Utter utter rubbish by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    Under no scenarios will billions die

    On the contrary. There are scenarios where everyone and everything dies. Usually they involve an unknown or underestimated reservoir of greenhouse gases (usually methane) being released due to melting permafrost or undersea ices resulting in a runaway greenhouse effect. The oceans boil and the solar system gets a Venus look alike.

    It's very unlikely, of course, or someone would be yelling about it. But it would be a great time to say "I told you so" to all the denialists.

  98. I. Don't. Care. by blindseer · · Score: 1

    I just don't care what year is the warmest, coldest, wettest or driest. I'm tired of hearing about what the problem is and am now craving for people to talk about what we are going to do about it. Most of the time the "solutions" involve taxing me more so that the government can give that money to someone else. How about some real solutions.

    First, the climate will change. The sea levels will rise and fall, ice will freeze and thaw. We need to develop the means to deal with that. It might be as simple as NOT doing something. Just don't rebuild in the part of the city that keeps getting flooded. Turn it into a park, a swamp, a cranberry bog, whatever. Just don't be stupid in city planning.

    Next we need to come up with real solutions for not burning so much foreign oil. I personally think all this global warming rhetoric is a steaming pile of bullshit. What I can agree on is the need to become energy independent out of a need to grow our economy and avoid getting entangled in foreign matters that should not involve us.

    If we are going to stop pumping so much CO2 into the air then we need to focus on the energy sources that are low in CO2. The energy sources in order of least CO2 output to highest are:

    - Hydro-electric
    - Nuclear
    - Geothermal
    - Wind
    - Natural gas
    - Solar (PV or thermal)
    - Other fossil fuels

    We've already dammed all the rivers worth a dam. Geothermal is very sensitive to location and cannot be useful everywhere. Iceland is full of good spots, the American Midwest is not so much. Nuclear reactors can be built just about anywhere and are safe, powerful, and reliable. New designs produce next to nothing for waste and can run off cheap thorium.

    Wind and solar are not reliable, are expensive, and not really all that low on the CO2 output compared to other sources. They are also very sensitive to location. There is a lot of wind in the American Midwest and a lot of sun in the American Southwest, which is good for Chicago and Dallas but not so much for New York or Miami. With such long power lines there would be much lost in just the transmission lines. The materials for efficient wind and solar power requires highly refined materials such as silicon and aluminum which means a lot of energy in the front end to gain it back later. That means plenty of CO2 expelled to produce these energy sources. The CO2 output for the energy produced might be improved in time but RIGHT NOW nuclear power really outshines them all.

    Some sources claim that even natural gas beat out solar power for CO2/energy ratio. Some claim it is a parity. Solar might beat out natural gas in CO2 produced but the cost of solar power is somewhere around double that of natural gas. Another great thing about natural gas is that we, in the USA, have plenty of it. We don't need anyone's permission to get it, we just need to go get it.

    All the problems here are political. The government needs to do their damned job at let Americans produce power here so we aren't shipping our jobs and dollars to countries that don't like us so much. I don't give a fuck about global warming. I'm tired of hearing about global warming. We need people to shut up about global warming and start working on solutions.

    --
    I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    1. Re:I. Don't. Care. by pweidema · · Score: 1

      Solar might beat out natural gas in CO2 produced but the cost of solar power is somewhere around double that of natural gas. Another great thing about natural gas is that we, in the USA, have plenty of it. We don't need anyone's permission to get it, we just need to go get it.

      Much of the natural gas is only accessible through hydrofracking. A concern for us in the Marcellus Shale area is how that process will impact our water (see the movie Gasland).

  99. Let me see if I have this correct. by p51d007 · · Score: 0

    This tied as the warmest since records have been kept. 130 years worth of records, and the earth is approximately 4.54 billion years old, which is about NOTHING compared to the age of the earth. Couple that with stories of retreating ice melts revealing abandoned settlements which means it was WARMER then, than now. This man made global warming is nothing but a bunch of hogwash.

  100. Re:Skimpy data by imroy · · Score: 1

    Wow, it takes shit for brains to ignore the evidence from multiple sources, miss the point of the video (Carter "found" the trend using a horribly naive and wrong method) and then focus on one source to post a link to the well-known denialist web site "wattsupwiththat".

  101. Re:Skimpy data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You've been claiming this for years ...

    Like since 1998?

  102. Re:Utter utter rubbish by BooRolla · · Score: 1

    You're endorsing misallocation on an unprecedented scale

    I'd still argue that the pyramids have that beat

  103. Re:Skimpy data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He's probably just reading Professor Phil Jones ...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-global-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html

  104. Re:Utter utter rubbish by cavebison · · Score: 1

    We are all going to die. Over 50 million people die each year.

    That's catastrophic by any measure. Something must be done.

  105. 130 years is a wisp of time to the Earth by jebblue · · Score: 0

    The fact that we have kept records since 1880 might seem like a long time to us but to the earth 130 years is like maybe 1 second to us.

  106. Re:"And it's a tragedy we can't" -- Trenberth by BasilBrush · · Score: 1

    Ouch, that bullet in your foot must hurt!

  107. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Moridin42 · · Score: 1

    Yeah.. I guess. If car insurance cost billions of dollars a day and there was a good chance that the insurance carrier wouldn't pay out in the event of an accident. (Oh wait, the second part is true)

    Retooling the entire planet's infrastructure won't be cheap, isn't guaranteed to prevent a catastrophe (and a catastrophe isn't even guaranteed to occur), and while we only "spent more money that we had to" we're consuming funds and resources that could've been applied to other human endeavors. Like health care, so people don't die of disease. Or energy efficiency so that people who currently can't afford electrical infrastructure may be able to afford power so that they don't freeze to death in winter or heat stroke in summer. Or maybe we spend some money on cleaning up manufacturing processes (or just spending it on proper post-manufacture disposal of waste) so that they don't require so many nasty toxic chemicals which get dumped into waterways and seep into aquifers, poisoning people.

    But yeah, you're right. Its only money.

    --
    I don't expect morality, equality, consistency, or justice from the law. I expect only legality.
  108. Re:Utter utter rubbish by trickyD1ck · · Score: 1

    If we choose to do what we can to try and keep it from getting worse, and in the end all the climate scientists were wrong, what are the consequences? We spent more money than we had to?

    Let's destroy the world economy and the Western civilization just in case!

  109. The problem is... by TheSync · · Score: 1

    The problem is that we have about as much chance at getting developing countries to reduce GHG emissions as we do of making them "democracies" - or stopping them from producing illegal drugs.

  110. Re:"And it's a tragedy we can't" -- Trenberth by Muros · · Score: 1

    Weather and climate are not the same thing. It's stupid to even bring them up in the same sentence.

    No they are not the same. However you obviously don't understand what the distinction is.

  111. What do you suggest, then? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What do you suggest, then? We manage with "average incomes increase" and "average health" too. So why is it OK when sampling a large number (but still a small subset) of humans but not when doing so for temperatures?

  112. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Temperatures have been rising since the peak of the last ice age, ~12,500 years ago.

  113. Re:Skimpy data by marcuz · · Score: 1

    It has been conclusively shown that global warming is manmade by proved-to-be-corrupted scietific entity called EPA. They intentionally reported wrong numbersv and they are supported by large corporations and governements. The result is that taxpayers are being robbed massively and the big corporations profit hugely!

  114. Notice the tredn by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

    Funny how the 2 warmest years followed by the next 5 warmest years are all within the last 10 years or so....global warming DOES EXIST, and whether because of all the methane from cows, or the cars people drive, or the hairspray...or even natural occurrence in the earth's climate system, it is here, and we now have to start realizing we need to figure out how to deal or live with it..

  115. Solar - Obama - Bush - Stimulus by inthealpine · · Score: 1

    I'm going to try to inject as little politics into this as I can.
    If there are 80,000,000 single family homes in the US, wouldn't it have been a far better use of that non-sense stimulus money (if it was to be spent at all) to buy a net metered solar system for all those homes? The US spent 1.2 T dollars on nothing. If you re-routed existing solar related federal funds to this program as well the feasibility gets even better. This would have created 'green' 'high tech' jobs while which makes everyone happy. This would have cut our 400,000,000,000 dollar oil trade deficit over time since energy demands would decline and domestic sources would make up more of a percentage of what we use. This would also please the global warming crowd by reducing C02 over time. Conservative minded people would not like the money being spent at all, but if it were to be spent this would be the most palatable (you could also tie in some opening of oil fields in currently locked out places to sweeten the deal). If people are still uncertain about the math, we spent 5.xx T in the past 2 years total so it's not like there isn't a piggy bank, but I think the stimulus and related funds would be enough.

    Any thoughts?

    --
    "In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash"
  116. Nothing will change even with reporting this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The fact is, that everybody is looking to America to change our behaviours and supposedly, lead the way for others esp. China. There is zero chance of that happening. The reason is that Cap/Trade will not work here and will be economic suicide. Worse, it would actually INCREASE CO2, not lower it. The reason is that other 3rd world nations will try to grab business by developing like CHina does. That will lead to increased emissions, not lower.

    In addition, the goal of dropping emissions PER CAPITA has to be one of the worst measures possible. That approach actually encourages more ppl per nation, not less. Instead, we need to limit the emissions on a per sq km basis. The amount of land is fixed in size, so, that takes into account environment, ppl, economy, etc. Basically, it allows a gov. to handle things directly.

    With that in mind, there is a minimal number of solutions. Probably the best is for nations to tax goods based on where they come from and the emissions from those locations. And it has to include both local and imported goods. If America starts doing that, it will force ALL nations to seriously look at controlling their emissions. The reason is that America is the largest buyer of goods.

    Few other solutions have the possibility of getting all nations on-board, helping 3rd world nations (nearly all have the lowest emissions on a per sq km basis), and keeping it low regardless of their economy.

    windbourne

  117. Citation needed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Citation needed because Otzi was not at home when he froze and the settlements in the north settle down in the tundra when it melts, to be frozen underneath the permafrost when it forms.

    Neither case show human habitation was overtaken by glaciers which are now melting.

  118. Re:Skimpy data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Regardless of whether it's man or nature that's heating the Earth, clearly it's in our best interests, and the interests of future generations, to try to do all we can at minimising it.

    Does 'do all we can' include the obvious front-loaded solution of reducing emissions by reducing the number of emitters? An active program of preemptively reducing CO2 emissions by 'aggressive' population reduction not only eliminates the CO2 emissions that would have been produced in support of their lifestyle, but their metabolic CO2 emissions as well.

  119. and in other news by Gonzodoggy · · Score: 1

    And, in other news, there's snow on the ground in 49 of 50 states. Florida being the exception

  120. don't confuse human CO2 contribution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And yet, human CO2 contribution accounts for about 1% of global CO2 content.

    You're telling me that humans are responsible for raising the CO2 levels to the highest level in 800,000 years?

    Why don't we tackle real pollution that poisons everything from fish in the water to birds in the air, and let's start addressing the destruction of the environment, before we start addressing CO2...

  121. If we're going to go with impossibilities ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I deny your "fact" on the basis that average temperature only makes sense for systems in thermal equilibrium. It may have meaning for systems not in thermal equilibrium, but it cannot be measured, no matter how advanced the technology used to attempt it.

    The earth, does it really need to be said, is not in thermal equilibrium. It only has an average temperature in theory, but not in practice.

    (the problem with non-equilibrium measurements is that they're always skipping parts of the system measured. Take the example of "how long is Britain's coastline". You might think this has a simple answer. But measure with a 1m ruler, and you get less than a tenth of the value when measured with a 0.5m stick. Measure before the tides comes in and Britain is almost 5% larger, ... With more accureate measurement, the athmosphere's measured "average" temperature may grow, or shrink, and dramatically so)

    Global warming is a best-guess based on a LOT of assumptions, several of which are known to be wrong, like for example the basic statement that global (or local) temperatures can be reasoned about using statistics, even when it is known, since the 1950's that they don't obey the law of large numbers (if you measure the temperature +- 1 degree, then +- 0.5, then 0.25 and so on you do NOT get a converging series. Highly counterintuitive ... but known for a long while. Whoops ... so please any time you use any form of summarization, know that you are wrong. Global warming is a concept that cannot, not even in theory, be measured. Average temperature - likewise).

    The only thing that is statistically somewhat approaching reasonable is the claim that, historically CO2 and Temperature increases are very likely linked. It is not reasonable, given the available theories, to assume either that this is still the case today, or that this trend will continue into the future.

    Science does not have the answer to the question "how will chaotic system *x* behave ?", because that's impossible. We do not know this now, and we have proof that we will *never* know it. In 3500 A.D. they will STILL not be able to predict the climate, nor in 35000 A.D. We do NOT know what will happen to the climate, we only know what has happened historically, and we know that there can be no theory allows you to extrapolate the history of any chaotic system into the future.

    But don't let the fact that you're wrongly interpreting basic mathematics, making claims *much* grander than what can possibly be considered reasonable, ignoring a LOT of problems, stand in the way of calling others dumb, okay ?

    1. Re:If we're going to go with impossibilities ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This guy, see I like this this guy.

  122. A graph that puts things in perspective by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr_Rev_png

    pretty scary.

  123. Re:Utter utter rubbish by TheSeventh · · Score: 1
    Is the only way you can try to win an argument by changing what I said? Seeing as how you did it multiple times, I'm guessing yes.

    Bigger Catastrophes, hmm, let's see . . . More and bigger hurricanes? More flooding like what is going on in Brazil and Australia, and what happened in China last year. Even more massive amounts of snow dropped on Atlanta, New York, Washington D.C., until people are buried alive in it? Yeah, more of those.

    O rly? Paraphrased: It doesn't matter what is happening or why, we just have to stop it.

    Where did I say it doesn't matter what is happening, and I never said we have to stop it. It doesn't matter as much what is causing the Earth to warm up, but we need to do something about it. Should that "something" be move all coastal areas further inland, evacuate all islands smaller than Ireland, and find a better way to deal with all the floods and hurricanes that will continue to increase? I'm guessing there might be better solutions, including ones that don't involve ONLY reducing CO2.

    The problem is complicated: For one, the world getting hotter _isn't_ a problem; it's the effects of it that are.

    So we should treat the symptoms, and ignore the cause?

    And then, you have to evaluate the effectiveness of your solution.

    I never suggested a solution, I'm saying we look for some solutions and implement them, instead of fighting over whether it's happening or not.

    And this is why I have global warming: There is no real analysis. It's just this "don't ask why, but if you don't agree with me billions will die" crap over and over. And every time I look at the figures, even the worst case ones (though based in reality), I just can't help but find it to be anything but a minor detail that can be solved in due time.

    I don't know why you have global warming. But since climate change is gradual, how long do you think countermeasures will take? And as to it being a "minor detail" that can be solved in due time, it's much more difficult to solve a problem if people say it doesn't exist, and therefore fight all measures to counteract it.

    So, are you just being stupid, or a jackass?

    --
    Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
  124. Re:Utter utter rubbish by TheSeventh · · Score: 1

    Why do you assume I suggested something to spend the money on? I said we do what we can.

    Maybe we get the coal plants to stop polluting as much. Maybe we find ways to remove methane from the atmosphere, and prevent more of it from being released to begin with. I don't really have the all the solutions, and never said I did. But instead of fighting over whether Global Warming is happening, or whether it's mostly man-made causes, or only 20%, we do what we can.

    --
    Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
  125. Global Pressure? by edfardos · · Score: 1

    Is anyone monitoring the global barometric pressure? Everyone who goes to college, including Democrats, typically learns that pressure and temperature are effectively the same thing. Anyone have the stats? preferably overlaid on temperature statistics? --edfardos

  126. 1 of 4 by sycodon · · Score: 1

    I believe that Hansen's is the ONLY one of the 3 or 4 tracking studies that shows this.

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
  127. Re:Utter utter rubbish by TheSeventh · · Score: 1

    The how about we don't spend as much as "the AGWers" demand? How about we look for other solutions?

    I haven't seen any proof that removing as much CO2 from the atmosphere as possible will have any effect, and while it wouldn't hurt to do so, there are probably better things to do.

    What percentage of the population, do you think, live in coastal areas? More than 15%? You know, those coastal areas that are prone to flooding, and hurricanes, and massive storms that kill people? And then what about all those people that live in dry, arid areas, without much water? Higher temperatures can't be good for droughts, could it?

    --
    Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
  128. GW may not be a hoax, but AGW = bait and switch by argStyopa · · Score: 1

    Thanks for proving me right. When I saw the header, I bet my coworker a cup of coffee that someone in 10 posts or less would try to use this data to attack 'deniers'.

    You DO understand that the debate really centers on ANTHROPOGENIC global warming, right?

    And GW != AGW, not by a long shot.

    By the way, could you please point to a period in time when the climate DIDN'T change? Because I can point to several where it was significantly warmer than it is now...in fact, the vast majority of Earth's history. We're kind of in a cool-weather slump, so I challenge your implied assertion that this is abnormal for anything but modern man's conception of what the climate "should be".

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:GW may not be a hoax, but AGW = bait and switch by mswhippingboy · · Score: 1

      Congratulations, the fact that you concede GW (anthropogenic or naturally occuring) is real puts you far above most GW deniers who simply look out the window and see snow and conclude that GW is a hoax. As to whether AGW is real or not, there really is no significant debate (among people who actually know a bit about what their discussing).

      The last figures I saw, 97% of recognized scientists in this field agree that AGW is real. Of the top 100 scientists (as determined by their peers as well as the number of papers published in scientific journals), only 3.0% questioned the impact of anthropization. Of the top 200, the figure was about 2.5% and of the top 500 it was 3.0%. 97% by any measure is a pretty sound majority opinion.

      However, I'm sure that none of this has any sway on your opinion, but if you are a thinking person, consider the following. I'd be interested in which of the following points you disagree with, and if you don't disagree with them, how you can hold the opinion you do?

      You learned in basic chemistry that the process of burning hydrocarbons (oil, coal) produces CO2 which is released into the atmosphere. This is not conjecture, this is fact and I'm not aware of any debate about this from credible sources.

      CO2 (along with methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and water vapor) is a green house gas (GHG). GHGs absorb heat generated by the sun. This heat is then re-radiated in all directions, some of this energy is re-radiated back to the surface of the planet and lower atmosphere. As a result, the surface and lower atmosphere are warmer than they would have been without the effect of the GHG. I know of no credible scientists that deny the effect of GHG and know it as factually as it can be determined, to be the reason the earth is not a giant ball of ice (Snowball Earth).

      We all learned in grade school that (green) plants take in CO2 during photosynthesis and produce Oxygen as a waste product. Respiration by plants (including plankton) provides the most important check on proliferation of CO2 we have. However, since the late 1800's, over 50% of the worlds forests have been cleared. Perhaps even more significant is that phytoplankton (most significant source for removing CO2), instead of increasing in number in response to increased CO2, begin to die off because of the increased acidification caused by the diffusion of CO2 into the water, lowering pH levels to the point that the phytoplankton are unable to take up the disolved iron, a key nutrient required for their growth.

      A lot has been learned in the last 100 years or so about weather patterns. We know that one of the largest factors in producing violent and/or extreme weather patterns is the amount of energy (in the form of heat) a weather system contains.

      I could go on and on, but then, this is /. and my intent is not to write a term paper.

      If you concede that the green house effect is real and you concede that man made activity has increased the amount of GHGs produced, I don't see how you cannot conclude that anthropization is conributing to the green house effect. You may be on somewhat firmer ground to argue the "degree" to which anthropization is affecting GW and the resultant natural effects, but to deny it has any affect is incomprehensible to me.

      Can I "prove" that AGW caused any of the disasters I point out? No. On the other hand, can you prove it didn't? If you can't prove it, and you concede that too much GW = bad, less GW = good, then why not try to do what can be done to diminish it's impact?

      --
      Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
    2. Re:GW may not be a hoax, but AGW = bait and switch by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      Actually, I appreciate your reply - I enjoy engaging anyone in a solid, non ad-hominem discussion about genuine questions I have regarding GW.

      I'd suspect that your initial compliment is either overstatement or strawman. For every glassy-eyed denier that looks out and says "heh, no global warming because lookit all the snow!", I'll point to ten frothing believers who look at the warming data since 1998* (or 1980, or 1960) as the incontrovertible Truth of global warming.

      *whups! Actually, global temps have gone down since 1998. http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2008/040408_cools_off.htm

      First, to your points: while perhaps 20 years ago your "97%" number may have been convincing, I no longer accept that a) really any source is objective (there is no news media that doesn't seem to have a bias one way or another) and even accepting that 97% as accurate, b) scientists are human too, subject to peer pressure, and are just as subject to herd-mentality as anyone else.

      Second, no debate at all on the production of CO2, obviously.

      Third, agreed on the premise of GHG as incontestable. However, I would raise a caveat that CO2 is the key bogeyman; let's be clear that water vapor is staggeringly overwhelming in its influence in the system.

      Fourth, violent and extreme weather patterns: not sure that's a convincing line of argument as we're getting into weather not climate, but in terms of hurricanes (for example) the recent few seasons have been amazingly QUIET.

      My debate about GW is mnay-fold, some may seem superficial to you but these go into my overall impression:
      1) I utterly don't care about the last 10, 20 or even 50 years. That's not climate, and no worthwhile conclusions can be drawn from that period. A 5- or 10- or even 50-year trend can be the result of any number of short-term system inputs to the point that it's indistinguishable from static.
      2) My initial exposure to the issue was An Inconvenient Truth, which was so riddled with gross errors of fact, convenient misstatements, begged questions, and histrionic narcissism that I admit my first impression was, and continues to be, negative.
      3) "global warming" has now been replaced by "global climate change"...a telling 'adjustment' of language that smacks of retconning.
      4) most importantly, look in the paleoclimate data.http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/datalist.html as well as the charted aggregate values on wiki,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png (which I wish wasn't log-scaled'd in the x-axis, as I think it would show the results more naturally, as the current format overemphasizes the significance of recent values). Yes, temps are climbing. But why is today's rise somehow different intrinsically than that 5000 years ago? 7500? 100ky? Several times historically temps peaked VERY quickly, too. I find it unlikely that a circumstance that has repeated itself many times historically is THIS TIME due to humans. I just don't believe it. For that matter, the bulk of earth's history has been SIGNIFICANTLY warmer than now. If we're arguing what is "normal", the current cooling period might simply be over.
      5) I'm not sure it's worth dissecting all the FUD that's been tossed around about climate change, but here's a few: Corals dying? Really? How does that reconcile with the fact that it's been both MUCH warmer and MUCH more CO2 historically, and they are one of the oldest lifeforms on earth. Sea level rising? Personally, I don't care - no human city was sited based on survivability over long timespans. All human contructs have an ultimate survivability of 0% once you extend the time frame out far enough. To suggest that humans in the prehistoric area plopped down settlements that were particularly convenient and thus grow the largest are somehow sacrosanct from wind, weather, and any number of other natural processes is basically absurd.
      6) finally, regarding the basic credibility of the AGW prop

      --
      -Styopa
  129. Re:Utter utter rubbish by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

    Obviously installing scrubbers in a coal plant, or changing legislation for car emissions, or putting up a wind farm, or researching battery technologies, upgrading electrical infrastructure, rebates for locally grown food/greenhouses, green-houses, reducing water use, recycling e-waste properly, reclaiming tailing ponds, etc. will destroy the economy.

    Nothing can be done! The only obvious solution is to OBLITERATE EVERYTHING!

    I realize you see everyone else around you as an extremist. However, as others have eloquently pointed out, why not start somewhere and work to improve. Like middle ground, like every argument everywhere at any time. How many things that are complex are simply yes/no?

    --
    Interesting.
  130. Re:Skimpy data by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

    How many pro-AGW people have you heard on ; radio, TV, internet forums, blogs, magazines, journals, mail correspondence, e-mail, ... Twitter?, ...
    advocate genocide as a viable solution? There are some environmentalists who advocate having a shrinking population would be a good thing (say gradual reduction through natural means down to 1 billion, or 3 or 5 or whatever), but how many actually say; grab your rifle and shoot your neighbour. Drink some locally grown organic yam juice to celebrate?

    Compare; how many people who aren't pro-AGW, or deniers, or anti-AGW, or contrarians, or libertarians, or free-thinkers (or whatever group you/they/whoever wishes to associate with; rather than get into a semantic war) attribute this "solution" to the first group?

    --
    Interesting.
  131. Re:Skimpy data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "The more you post it the truer it becomes, right?"

          And how is your argument different? The pro Global Warming Climate Change Agenda and its proponents continue to practice masturbatory science and when called for the psuedo science it is, the researchers simply massage the data set to fit their conclusion and true believers like you continue to make excuses for them.

          The very idea that the human race could affect a planetary ecosystem would mean we would have to conclude we are in possession of technology that could express energy equivalents that equal natural forces. If that would be true, you would be living in a far different world right now. We would be conquering the stars and beyond, mayeb to infinit Buzz Lighttard!

    Dream the fuck on!

  132. Re:Skimpy data by SilverEyes · · Score: 1

    Why do you post as AC, surely someone with such strong views about the "pro Global Warming Climate Change Agena", masturbation, the human race and Buzz Lighttard would like to attract followers?

    --
    Interesting.
  133. Re:Skimpy data by spiralx · · Score: 1

    Your last link goes to a 404 page BTW.

  134. Re:Utter utter rubbish by Moridin42 · · Score: 1

    Well.. firstly.. I didn't assume you suggested something to spend the money on. Nor did I assume, or state, that you had all the solutions.

    You said "we do what we can" ... which I am saying "costs money" ..

    If we spend money doing what we can and didn't need to .. what follows is what I said before. Spending more money than you need to on a problem causes a whole host of other problems that can and do degrade the quality and/or length of human lives. I am not unaware of the tradeoffs. You seem to have not even considered them.

    I wouldn't have thought that I would need to explain the downsides of wasteful spending, or as you so eloquently called it spending "more money than we had to" ..

    --
    I don't expect morality, equality, consistency, or justice from the law. I expect only legality.
  135. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    The very idea that the human race could affect a planetary ecosystem would mean we would have to conclude we are in possession of technology that could express energy equivalents that equal natural forces.

    We don't have technologies that express the energy equivalents of natural forces. What we do have is the ability to reduce the efficiency of infrared radiation by the earth by a small amount. When you multiply that small amount by the energy of sunlight reach the earth and accumulate it over many years it becomes a very large amount.

    In essence your argument is that because a nuclear explosion is much larger than the energy in a 9V battery, you can't trigger a nuclear bomb with a 9V battery. Which is both wrong and idiotic.

  136. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    It has been conclusively shown that global warming is manmade by proved-to-be-corrupted scietific entity called EPA.

    A plain and simple lie. The EPA doesn't do that sort of work. Where do you get this crap?

  137. Re:Skimpy data by marcuz · · Score: 1

    Sorry, I meant IPCC not EPA. But they are the same bunch. IPCC receives money from big corps who like global warming, even oil companies - do not get mistaken, people behind the corporations seek global governance and increased power, its not about short term profits. Global warming meme is an important theme they need to push on us because it is then easy to advocate food and water scarcity memes which they can of course solve by global governance. Just take a look at all the help the western world is sending to the poor countries - it doesn't help - the power is just spread through mercantilistic paractisies based on fiat money. Another thing about IPCC is the climategate scandal - you get the idea how does one manufacture data because unfortunataly we are heading probably for som 10 years of global cooling and it doesn't fit their plan.

  138. Re:Skimpy data by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    "Climategate" was a non-scandal. Totally manufactured by the right wing media. You should choose more trustworthy sources.