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The Doomsday Clock Is Moved Closer To Midnight

Harperdog writes "The Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock from 6 minutes to midnight to 5 minutes to midnight. The Board deliberated on the decision and came to the conclusion based on a variety of events: failure on climate policy, Fukushima, nuclear proliferation, etc. This article is a good explanation of the policy decision. Lawrence Krauss said, 'As we see it, the major challenge at the heart of humanity's survival in the 21st century is how to meet energy needs for economic growth in developing and industrial countries without further damaging the climate, exposing people to loss of health and community, and without risking further spread of nuclear weapons, and in fact setting the stage for global reductions.'"

236 of 313 comments (clear)

  1. Zeno by Sebastopol · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is so stupid. I'm a lefty eco groovy person, but this is just pathetic. Almost as sad as Heston's "From my cold dead hands" battlecry.

    It just puts emphasis on the moonbats on the left, and ammo for Faux News, rather than addressing the issues in a non sensationalist way.

    Sigh.

    --
    https://www.accountkiller.com/removal-requested
    1. Re:Zeno by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      They're just trying to stay relevant. We all forgot about them when the Cold War ended, and they crave attention again.

    2. Re:Zeno by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 5, Insightful

      They're just trying to stay relevant. We all forgot about them when the Cold War ended, and they crave attention again.

      You may have been joking/snarky/whatever, I'm not sure; but in all seriousness - I'd completely forgot about these guys and their "doomsday clock" until I saw this Slashdot story!

      --
      #DeleteChrome
    3. Re:Zeno by Synerg1y · · Score: 2

      I don't think anybody takes it serious, do they?

      Another relic from the cold war...

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

    4. Re:Zeno by tripleevenfall · · Score: 1

      We've all been too busy battling manbearpig to forget about all those nuclear weapons from the 1970s that are supposedly on "hair-triggers"

    5. Re:Zeno by timeOday · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So we can sit here and take turns throwing feces at the idea of a doomsday clock, or we could have an interesting discussion on whether it is possible to meet the world's future energy needs(?) without destroying the environment and/or nuclear proliferation.

    6. Re:Zeno by uberjack · · Score: 1

      I'm curious as to what they'll do when "the Doomsday clock" is at 11:59, and they feel like they need to forward it yet again - without an actual doomsday. This _is_ imbecilic, and you can't get any more tinfoil-hat than this.

    7. Re:Zeno by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I just learned they existed about 3 days ago while watching an episode of Dirty Jobs (doomsday seed vault in Chicago). Frankly, it is pretty ridiculous. I'm sure the people around during the Black Death thought it was the end of times too. And those around for the Hundred Year War, WWI, WWI, the Cold War... I mean, when's the last time we *weren't* on the brink of possible death/doom?

      The mere existence of nukes does not mean there will be nuclear war. If the global economy collapses, it will majorly suck but humanity survived the fall of the Roman, Greek and Ottoman empires. I think we can pull off this one too. I'm not even convinced that the worst-case climate dooms could be the end-all. Life on this planet has survived some pretty gnarly stuff. Maybe it'll never be the same but I'm inclined to believe that life will go on. Maybe not ours but is life really defined by humans?

    8. Re:Zeno by viperidaenz · · Score: 1
      Agreed. The doomsday clock should have nothing to do with climate change. unless of course, in 5 minutes some super volcano is going to errupt and kill everyone.

      The only thing they should be caring about is the fatty (a little ironic considering the food shortage issues North Korea has been facing) in charge of North Korea and those nuclear but jobs in Iran

    9. Re:Zeno by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 1

      Yea, all the NBC/WMD that were made during the cold ware are gone now, right? Lets have a party.

      --
      We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
    10. Re:Zeno by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 4, Funny

      There's no reason we can't do both. I'm certain we can meet our energy needs, but maybe not our energy wants. Now where is that clock... *fling* *splat*

    11. Re:Zeno by Baloroth · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The real problem is that the clock wasn't intended to represent things like climate change. The entire idea was to show how close we were to the world ending tomorrow. Climate change and the like won't end the world tomorrow. The clock really only even makes sense in the context of nuclear war or other dramatic world-changing events (Doomsday). It isn't called the "Doomcentury" clock for good reason.

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    12. Re:Zeno by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Maybe not ours but is life really defined by humans?

      Yep, it really is. I mean, who will be around to define it after we're gone?

      --
      "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
      --- Jerry Garcia
    13. Re:Zeno by mr1911 · · Score: 2

      They're just trying to stay relevant. We all forgot about them when the Cold War ended, and they crave attention again.

      That assumes they were once relevant.

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      Any offense taken to this post is at your sole discretion.
    14. Re:Zeno by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Maybe not ours but is life really defined by humans?

      Yep, it really is. I mean, who will be around to define it after we're gone?

      Eloi and Morlocks, I'd imagine.

    15. Re:Zeno by poetmatt · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why is it part of any political spectrum? what kind of a US centric shitpost is that? I'd say the doomsday clock is significant at doing what it does for the reasons it does, which are not at all political.

      How about the fact that the world is generally on a decline? Economies falling due to greed and corruption, change being stifled, advancing our society via positive means being directly subverted by greed. That isn't part of $political-stance and is a part of that is that being on a decline long enough does equal significant military outcomes of negative effect.

      While it is labeled as doomsday, it is a honest enough indicator of "how's the world doing overall?".

    16. Re:Zeno by Fallingcow · · Score: 2

      I'd say we can consider 11:59 to be reserved for two nuclear powers directly engaging in a (conventional) hot war with one another, or something equally risky in terms of chances of nukes flying. It's not like it only ever moves closer to midnight.

    17. Re:Zeno by Fallingcow · · Score: 2

      Couldn't it be argued that climate change would tend to increase the likelihood of military conflict, and thus the risk of nuclear war? That's what I assumed they meant when I saw that in the summary.

    18. Re:Zeno by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Optimistic story: "Midnight" on the clock doesn't mean the end of the world, it basically means the current "day" of mankind is over. As in total civilization collapse, where if the human species survives it, the continuity of the previous civilization will be lost to it at best, and not even known at all at worst. Thing is, it takes at least decades for a civilization to collapse. Rome took centuries. An all-out nuclear exchange is the only exception I can think of that would do it all in a day, but that scenario looks a lot less likely.

      Story you probably don't want to hear: Put all the methane in the oceans and tundra into the atmosphere over a period of 100 years? Let's imagine what that does to the biomass. Now let's also consider that there's nothing in the chemistry of the earth that really requires that the atmosphere be composed of the percentage of oxygen that it is. The emergence of blue/green bacteria was an evolutionary quirk that caused a planetwide exinction event. Nothing preventing that from happening again if another organism decides to fill the void.

    19. Re:Zeno by BenSchuarmer · · Score: 3, Funny

      That's when Dick Clark goes on TV live from Time Square.

    20. Re:Zeno by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Do you really think that scientists only have a political agenda and no advancements have been done by them? Because that would be hilarious!

      You realize that science is the definition of learning about the truth of this world, and that most of the advancements known to man have been done by science (and so by entrepreneours, industrial engineers, theoretical physicists, and many others), right? A scientists is somebody who does science.

      If a few of them *do* have a political agenda and don't do "real science", or do non-science on the side, then please don't assume that science is about that, and that all scientists do that. Science has given us a lot of knowledge about this world, and I think it is INSULTING to say that "scientists only have a political agenda".
      Well, *maybe* the scientists referenced in this summary do (or maybe not, I don't know), but please do not generalize.

    21. Re:Zeno by DaMattster · · Score: 1

      This is so stupid. I'm a lefty eco groovy person, but this is just pathetic. Almost as sad as Heston's "From my cold dead hands" battlecry.

      It just puts emphasis on the moonbats on the left, and ammo for Faux News, rather than addressing the issues in a non sensationalist way.

      Sigh.

      I prefer the battlecry, "From my cold dead ass!" a la The Matrix.

    22. Re:Zeno by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1

      The mere existence of nukes does not mean there will be nuclear war.

      Sure, but their absence would preclude it. Just sayin'.

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    23. Re:Zeno by pgward · · Score: 1

      It would be far more accurate if they wound the clock back and gave it a defined speed in reaction to climate change. "Given new evidence of climate change, we are winding the Doomsday clock back 2 hours and winding it forward one minute every 6 months."

    24. Re:Zeno by Marc_Hawke · · Score: 1

      Yup...same here. From reading the summary (and only that...yeah me!) I assumed that 'once all the resources run out the war happens.' And Mad Max shows up.

      --
      --Welcome to the Realm of the Hawke--
    25. Re:Zeno by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      That's how I read it as well. Climate change and the stuff going along with it are yet another excuse to cause conflict.

    26. Re:Zeno by Synerg1y · · Score: 2

      You can't compare to Rome because when Rome collapse there was NOBODY to step in, thus the dark ages, I'm sure a few come to mind nowadays if the US collapsed, but a recession doesn't equal a social collapse. I seriously wonder what would happen if the US got nukes launched at it though, I don't think its a scenario anybody has really thought through. We definitely wouldn't want to launch ours back to avoid MAD, I wonder as to the state of US missile defense systems, esp since the 2002 exit from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

    27. Re:Zeno by ubrgeek · · Score: 4, Funny

      Couldn't we use the feces to meet our energy needs?

      --
      Bark less. Wag more.
    28. Re:Zeno by kesuki · · Score: 1

      hey well there's a guy selling built to withstand nuclear bunker apartments -- formerly missile silos from the cold war. i heard he only filled two of 8 units, it may not be what congress gets, but hey it can survive infection and nuclear futures.

    29. Re:Zeno by Baloroth · · Score: 1

      I suppose, eventually. But we aren't, at this moment, even close to the point where climate change would cause that. We might be close to the point where climate change inevitably will, I suppose, but then you would have to say "Doomsday" is the point where that becomes irreversible. And we really don't know enough to be able to say when that happens. If it ever does: the climate is amazingly complex and tends to be self-adjusting in certain ways.

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    30. Re:Zeno by scot4875 · · Score: 2

      If you read the link in his sig, it claims, as basically the only point in their mission statement:

      The American Third Position Party believes that government policy in the United States discriminates against white Americans, the majority population, and that white Americans need their own political party to fight this discrimination.

      Anyone who thinks this is accurate could very easily believe any number of other equally ridiculous things.

      --Jeremy

      --
      Jesus was a liberal
    31. Re:Zeno by timeOday · · Score: 1

      Why must there be no nuclear proliferation? It is one of the safest and cleanest energy source out there, what we need to do is improve upon that technology and run with it, not ban it like retards.

      It seems like we are inching towards conflict with Iran on that very issue, so what is your solution specifically?

    32. Re:Zeno by CapOblivious2010 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I seriously wonder what would happen if the US got nukes launched at it ... (snip)... We definitely wouldn't want to launch ours back to avoid MAD.

      Do you know how MAD works? The whole point is that we are very public about being batshit crazy, and we definitely WOULD launch ours back. Lots of them. So launching a nuke at the US is just a slightly indirect way of committing mass suicide. MAD is insane logic, no question about it - but it's been a big part of keeping the US and USSR from using nukes on each other for over half a century. As insane as it might be, it works.

      There's even a MAD argument AGAINST missile defense - as long as the US can't defeat incoming missiles, we're very unlikely to start a nuclear war. Likewise for Russia or whoever. But if anyone COULD defeat missiles, they wouldn't fear a nuclear war nearly as much, and they might even be tempted to start one. So a workable missile defense arguably makes the overall situation MORE dangerous, not less.

      Now granted, MAD works better when your enemy is a large country who values their lives - it gets a bit iffy when your enemy is a small band of religious wackos who don't much care whether they're dead or alive, as long as they've made their point.

    33. Re:Zeno by jd2112 · · Score: 1

      Yup...same here. From reading the summary (and only that...yeah me!) I assumed that 'once all the resources run out the war happens.' And Mad Max shows up.

      Cool! Perhaps Tina Turner will make a comeback.

      --
      Any insufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology.
    34. Re:Zeno by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 4, Informative

      You need to stop getting your 'science' from B movies. The reason that the Oxygen Catastrophe of the Siderian was able to change the atmosphere and the biosphere was that the cyanobacteria (over thousands of years) kept producing the gas as a product of their metabolism continuously and unopposed. The methane in ice/tundra is ultimately a mostly static value. Even if all of it were released instantly a) it wouldn't account for more than a fraction of a percent of the total atmosphere b) it would be subject to reabsorbtion by all the active environmental forces c) it would not increase further at any higher rate than is already established for lifeforms and geothermal activity that produce methane and d) there is no chance that it would catalyze some kind of methane-based/metabolizing/adapted lifeform because there would not be enough of it. (Among many other reasons.)

      Holy shit people, The Day After Tomorrow is not a documentary, and shame on all the deluded twits modding you up.

      --
      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    35. Re:Zeno by ancientt · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Spitballing here, so I freely acknowledge there are probably many issues I haven't thought through...

      How about we sell lots of safe nuclear generators to Iran? I am interested in nuclear power because it has a tremendous potential for meeting energy demands, but I also acknowledge that creating safe nuclear plants that aren't a precursor to nuclear weapons requires a high level of technical expertise. The US and China and other highly developed countries have the expertise but face a lot of public opinion inertia. Maybe we should try to produce the generators in a box (google Hyperion) and sell them to Iran with built in safety precautions. Alternatively, set up a treaty to develop thorium reactors there, which I believe are hard or impossible to weaponize.

      Either way, we could help them meet their energy goals while protecting the global interest of preventing them from developing weapons. As a side effect, we would get to use the pro-nuclear government there as a safety proving ground for new technologies. They want to take the risks and we need to show that the new technologies are safe and feasible, so we have coinciding interest, which can make a strong bond for peaceful trade.

      --
      B) Eliminate all the stupid users. This is frowned upon by society.
    36. Re:Zeno by Gideon+Wells · · Score: 2

      Something that worries me about what we are doing.

      How much oil/fossil resources have we used? How much of the readily available metal ores have we used? Fossil fuels, in time, could redevelop. But the metals? The coppers, the iron, the rare earth metals wouldn't just magically regenerate over time. We are screwing any like successors to the human race (if we fail) in how easy they can develop their own early metalurgy.

      We might not be the only sentient, science producing species that evolves on this world. We might be the last that has a chance to escaping this world and spreading life.

      --
      by Anonymous Coward: I, for one, welcome the shift from car analogies to pizza analogies. um.. overlords?
    37. Re:Zeno by Nidi62 · · Score: 1

      Couldn't it be argued that climate change would tend to increase the likelihood of military conflict, and thus the risk of nuclear war?

      Even if it did, that scenario is a very long ways away from happening. For climate change to cause military conflict, there would have to be an event that either caused a mass migration or a severe water shortage. The level of climate change needed for an event like this to happen is not going to be occurring any time soon. Unless the Doomsday clock is redefining their minutes to mean decades (and even them I'm being very generous as to the timeframes).

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    38. Re:Zeno by letherial · · Score: 1

      O there will be some alien life that will come by, see our ancient little record keeping method and put together a fraction of what it was to be human. There response will be a slap to there own face, a groan and a shaking of the head, followed by a simple statement "what a dumb fucking species"

    39. Re:Zeno by scubamage · · Score: 1

      As part of the commercialization of space I think mining of space is going to be a source of metals as well as new exo-materials.

    40. Re:Zeno by Abreu · · Score: 2

      Because, in the US, the rightwingers don't believe in science.

      --
      No sig for the moment.
    41. Re:Zeno by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      "I don't think its a scenario anybody has really thought through."

      Yeah, I'm sure that nobody has, even though we've got hundreds of people on the payroll with lots of resources dedicated to planning for scenarios like this that nobody has thought about what might happen in a nuclear attack on the US. I'm sure that they haven't made hundreds of plans based on how the weapons were delivered, how many, and where the missiles came from, and whether we know those things. And sure that the people making those plans would be just as clueless as you as to the state of the US missile defense systems (could only work for a very very limited strike from specific countries, and even then unlikely to work) as you are. And I'm sure none of the response plans include counter-strikes be they immediate, delayed, limited or everything we've got.

      I hope you could hear the sarcasm dripping from that

    42. Re:Zeno by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      What are they supposed to do, wait until climate change has gotten to the point where a world war is going to happen in six months? The point of the clock is to convince people to do something to prevent the destruction of civilization, not to tell them to get ready because it's too late to do anything about it.

      And just because you don't understand climate change doesn't mean that climate scientists don't. Personally, I wouldn't ask you to adjust the temperature on my refrigerator because the complexity might overwhelm you. It's not that had to see where the climate is going and that is has moved well beyond any natural feedback that could produce anything like the prior equilibrium unless we reduce CO2 emissions to a point where we can maintain a stable level.

    43. Re:Zeno by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Now granted, MAD works better when your enemy is a large country who values their lives - it gets a bit iffy when your enemy is a small band of religious wackos who don't much care whether they're dead or alive, as long as they've made their point.

      MAD only works when it's really mutually assured destruction, and said destruction is complete (or nearly so, enough for all practical purposes). You can't have MAD between U.S. and Iran, or between U.S. and DPRK, because those countries couldn't significantly hurt U.S. with what they have - at best they could nuke a city or two (and even then that assumes some efficient delivery vehicle), whereas U.S. can nuke them out of existence entirely.

    44. Re:Zeno by SETIGuy · · Score: 3, Informative

      Depends how we go. Triggering an ice age could leave some descendants of the great apes around, but as a family the great apes have been a pretty dismal failure with only 7 species in 4 genera. I'd be pretty surprised if any survive. Triggering excessive heating might even be worse for large animals. Nuclear exchange followed by nuclear winter would probably get rid of large species. I would guess your best bet is a small burrowing omnivore. Temperatures underground might be moderated with the possibility of better access to fresh water. Once the climate stabilizes for a while we've got half a billion years of viability left in the planet, so something we would consider intelligent might evolve.

      Of course if we trigger a runaway greenhouse, the point is moot. If there are bacteria in mantle rocks or deep crust, they might survive for a while. Once the water is baked out of the mantle and plate tectonics stops, that's all she wrote.

      People who like humans might consider either one to be sad.

    45. Re:Zeno by SgtXaos · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Aside from a few million pounds (?) of it we have shot into space, all the metal that was here is still here. At some point, when the naturally available materials are simply too costly to mine, someone will figure out a good way to mine the landfills and dig those "gone" materials back up.

      --
      -- Don't call me "Sir," I increase entropy for a living!
    46. Re:Zeno by CapOblivious2010 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I think nuking even "just" a city or two (say, NYC + DC) would count as "significantly" hurting the US. If US planners believed that DPRK had a couple of nukes and a delivery mechanism of some sort (ICBM or suitcase, whatever), I think it would SIGNIFICANTLY discourage them from attacking DPRK, especially w/ nukes.

    47. Re:Zeno by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      If it's at 11:59 and they feel the need to move it forward it will be because missiles are in the air. 11:59 is your last chance before doomsday.

      Lets imagine the scenario. The clock got moved to 11:58 because Russia is engaged in a two front war against Europe and the United States in the west and the United States and China in the south and west. It went to 11:59 because the Russian western front is collapsing and Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons if foreign troops step on Russian soil. So why would we need another step forward? General Grosgrave has the hiccups?

    48. Re:Zeno by russotto · · Score: 2

      Climate change is in there because since the fall of the Soviet Union, no-shit world-ending catastrophe just isn't likely. Putin, the Chinese communist leaders, and Obama are all too busy enjoying wealth and power to blow it all up. Same goes for England and France. The lesser nuclear powers don't have what it takes to destroy the world. So to attempt to regains some relevance for the doomsday clock, they threw climate change in there.

    49. Re:Zeno by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The trick is being able to nuke in response even after you are nuked first. If all you have is, say, half a dozen ICBMs, then your enemy just nukes their locations with their first strike, and that's it. Not to mention that a few ICBMs can be shot down quite easily.

      That's why early on sheer numbers were very important for MAD - you had to have enough strategic bombers that at least some would get in the air and get through to enemy's cities; and later on, subs became important as an effectively invincible retaliatory strike mechanism.

    50. Re:Zeno by Jarik+C-Bol · · Score: 1

      well, you know, as far as anyone knows the 'Dead Hand' system in moscow is still operational. If you've forgotten, Dead Hand is the hardened computer system designed to detect any nuclear attack, and return fire, *unless* human intervention tells it not to launch. You get that? if everyone is dead, it fires whatever is left of Russia's nuclear arsenal. sleep well.

      --
      I've decided to Diversify my Holdings. I've divided my cash between my left and right pockets, instead of all in one.
    51. Re:Zeno by Knave75 · · Score: 1

      I think Canada sold some reactors to India that could not be used to create weaponized material. India then promptly used those reactors to make weaponized material.

    52. Re:Zeno by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      No-one knows precisely what "Perimetr" is. Your description of it is one of the more sensationalized ones, but unlikely to be true.

      According to some people who claim to have actually worked with it, it was a system that was meant to automatically give order to launch to crews manning the missile silos, in the event HQ would be destroyed - so it wasn't fully automated. Even then, it wasn't active all the time - rather, it was primed whenever the political events at the moment had significant perceived potential to escalate into a war. Yet others have claimed that the system was contemplated, but never built, precisely because it was perceived as too dangerous.

    53. Re:Zeno by MechaStreisand · · Score: 1

      Or, you could have a radar system that can detect the incoming warheads with several minutes of warning time AND long-range missiles that can launch in that timeframe. The US has both. I'm pretty sure Iran has neither, though, so... I guess you're right.

      --
      Disclaimer: IANAL. This post is, however, legal advice, and creates an attorney-client relationship.
    54. Re:Zeno by SlowGenius · · Score: 2

      Logical; my inner pyro tells me that there will *always* be sh*t to burn.

      --
      Listen to what I say, not what I mean...
    55. Re:Zeno by camperdave · · Score: 1

      There's even a MAD argument AGAINST missile defense - as long as the US can't defeat incoming missiles, we're very unlikely to start a nuclear war. Likewise for Russia or whoever. But if anyone COULD defeat missiles, they wouldn't fear a nuclear war nearly as much, and they might even be tempted to start one. So a workable missile defense arguably makes the overall situation MORE dangerous, not less.

      Yes, and that is why many people opposed Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" program.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    56. Re:Zeno by jandrese · · Score: 1

      The only other time I've thought about them in the past 20 years is when I read and then saw the Watchmen.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    57. Re:Zeno by ksemlerK · · Score: 1

      The DPRK or Iran may not be able to completely destroy the USA, but they could do significant damage our infrastructure by using as few as two nuclear weapons to blow a critical wound to the USA in the form of an electromagnetic pulse. All that would be necessarily to do so would be a medium-range missile that shoots the payload 50 miles above the surface of the earth along both the northeast and southwest coasts. Most of the economic engine of the USA would grind to a halt. The damage done would cost trillions of dollars, many years, and millions of lives.

      High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and High Power Microwave (HPM) Devices: Threat Assessments

    58. Re:Zeno by jackbird · · Score: 1

      No concern over India and Pakistan? Since, you know, they're both nuclear-armed states that share a border and have been in a state of not-as-cold-as-you-might-like war for the past 60 or so years?

    59. Re:Zeno by cavePrisoner · · Score: 1

      The clock is intended to measure trends over years, not individual events. The clock didn't move in response to the Cuban missile crisis. It happened too fast.

    60. Re:Zeno by Ihmhi · · Score: 1

      I watched Watchmen more than a few times. I thought the doomsday clock was an over-the-top, made-up example of how nutty we were during the Cold War.

      Apparently truth really is stranger than fiction.

    61. Re:Zeno by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The methane in ice/tundra is ultimately a mostly static value. Even if all of it were released instantly a) it wouldn't account for more than a fraction of a percent of the total atmosphere

      The current concentration of methane in the atmosphere is about 2 parts per million, and it's a significant greenhouse gas. If you took all the methane locked in methane ice clathrates and put it in the atmosphere, then yes, it wouldn't account for more than a fraction of a percent of the total atmosphere - but it would still cause a massive change in the Earth's climate.

      This is one of the low-probability high-impact scenarios from global warming: the temperature increases, clathrates melt, methane escapes and increases the temperature further. It may have been the mechanism behind the Permian extinction. Further reading.

    62. Re:Zeno by viperidaenz · · Score: 1

      my point was supposed to be climate change has nothing to do with the doomsday clock. Its produced by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist not The Sensationalist Climate Change Committee

    63. Re:Zeno by Lord_Breetai · · Score: 1

      Couldn't we use the feces to meet our energy needs?

      Sure, we can process it to extract methane like in "Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome".

      --
      "You are only young once, but you can be immature forever." -www.animemusicvideos.org
    64. Re:Zeno by MobyTurbo · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Iran was offered safe nuclear power, i.e. that Russia or some other neutral country would do the producing of the fuel. Negotiators many times offered that as the main condition to lifting of sanctions in exchange for them stopping producing the stuff that's refine-able into nuclear weapons. Iran said no, we have to for "national pride" make it ourselves. Either they have a heck of a lot of national pride over making Uranium-235 of a grade better than what's needed for power reactors, or they are trying to acquire nukes. I suspect the latter.

    65. Re:Zeno by rainer_d · · Score: 3, Informative
      Consensus is that DPRK/Iran may (!) have enough material to build a single nuclear bomb (if at all) in the near future.
      AFAIK, neither nation has ICBMs - as such, the device would have to be used as in a conventional bombing attack: delivered and brought to explosion on-site.

      It would be very effective in killing as many people as possible in one swoop - but ultimately lead to an even more brutal strike-back.

      In a way, this is some sort of MAD.
      KJU and MA know this - they have to appear just crazy enough to let us think they could do it - but without actually painting themselves into a corner in such a way that they have no other option.
      It's much more complicated and much more dangerous than the game US and USSR used to play. It's a bit like the Cuban Missile crisis - but performed twice a year...

      But moving the Doomsday clock one minute is OK IMO. That DPRK/Iran theater is just a distraction from the economic problems we have.

      --
      Windows 2000 - from the guys who brought us edlin
    66. Re:Zeno by khallow · · Score: 1
      The most obvious rebuttal to this is why didn't we have huge methane spikes at the end of the ice ages?

      This is one of the low-probability high-impact scenarios from global warming: the temperature increases, clathrates melt, methane escapes and increases the temperature further.

      If you have low-probability, high-impact scenarios, then you need to do more research until either those scenarios are backed by evidence (in effect becoming high-probability, high-impact scenarios) or aren't backed by evidence (in effect the probability drops below a certain threshold and gets ignored).

    67. Re:Zeno by fyngyrz · · Score: 1

      And to be completely honest, Iran is not religiously more extreme than Saudi Arabia, or Israeli orthodox jews or US evangelists.

      lol.... you know, that is not reassuring...

      But hey, no, wait, this is a patriotic matter! I'd put our batshit-crazy, snake-waving, babble-talking, crystal-gazing, pyramid-storing, sweat-lodge having, primal screaming, colloidal silver drinkin' UFO, jebus, Jospeh Smith, Allah, and L Ron Hubbard worshiping kooks up against the furrin Muslims any day when it comes to crazy. Oh, we got crazy. In god we trustith, brudda. One nation, under god (get off, you're crushin' my cigarettes!) You ever hear about the sights for high powered rifles our soldiers were carrying in Iraq? Let me help ya out.

      So even our companies are batshit crazy. So if that's a key ingredient for dropping nukes on Iran if they launch or otherwise deliver a nuke to our Sacred Shores... no worries, mate, they're toast. Well, boiling radioactive glass, but you know what I mean.

      --
      I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    68. Re:Zeno by Alioth · · Score: 1

      When the Iranians were asked this: "Well, Russia has offered you the fuel, why not just use it instead of doing your own (controversial) enrichment?" To which they responded, "Well, would you want to be dependent on Russia for your energy needs?"

      This is a very good point. Russia has demonstrated time and time again that it has absolutely no qualms about cutting off energy to a region for political reasons. Russia didn't care that it was *also* cutting off western European countries with whom it did not have an issue to punish an eastern European country that didn't want to pay a huge increase in price for gas. Russia simply is not a reliable supplier.

    69. Re:Zeno by MobyTurbo · · Score: 1

      You haven't explained why they need to produce material that's enriched beyond what's needed for nuclear power production, and in excess of what's needed for domestic medical needs as they've also claimed it's for. It's clear they're trying to obtain nuclear weapons.

    70. Re:Zeno by vikingpower · · Score: 1

      The problem is that it takes a shitload of shit to generate power to throw shit at... oh, wait.

      --
      Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
    71. Re:Zeno by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Nuking DC? OK, so we'd lose our government.

      I thought the idea was to HURT us?

    72. Re:Zeno by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      The mole people. Duh!

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    73. Re:Zeno by nharmon · · Score: 1

      ...says the person with a signature claiming that Jesus was a liberal.

    74. Re:Zeno by CastrTroy · · Score: 1

      Yes, but they couldn't nuke DPRK out of existence, without causing some serious problems in parts of South Korea, China, Japan, and a few other countries. Even Russia shares a small border with DPRK, and I don't think they'd be very fond of a few towns, no matter how small, being turned into radioactive wastelands.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    75. Re:Zeno by Xest · · Score: 1

      I don't really understand what the problem is, they basically act as a measure of likelihood of doomsday occuring due to large scale, like nuclear, human conflict.

      They seem quite warranted in this latest change, I mean, even if global warming is natural, not man made, and there's nothing we can do about it, the fact remains that things like increased drought leads to greater potential for conflict, that increased population means greater competition for resources which again, leads to greater potential for conflict. There's also greater political unrest than ever due to the financial crisis, which again can create turmoil - look how destabilised Syria is right now relative to the solid dictatorship it was only 5 years back.

      There's also nuclear weapons in more countries than ever before now, and in regions with more complex politics than ever before. There's also more covert nuclear programmes than ever before (Syria's which Israel bombed, Iran's etc.).

      As such, when there's a proliferation of WMDs, into regions with more complex politics where there's greater potential for conflict in general globally, what's wrong with recognising that? That's all they're doing.

      It doesn't bother me, nor do I care, if it happens it happens and that's how I've always thought whatever the situation, I'm not one to worry about these things, but what's so wrong with people who want to provide a simple to understand measure of the stability of the human race in terms of potential for war doing so? It's a measure of the current world's political situation and the likelihood of war stemming from that, they're not saying you should bolt your doors and hide in your cellar or anything like that so what's the problem? The issues they pose are very real, and personally I think we'll get through them, but it doesn't mean these people should be slagged off for daring to remind us what they are, and inform those who aren't aware of what the state of play is right now.

    76. Re:Zeno by Xest · · Score: 1

      "Consensus is that DPRK/Iran may (!) have enough material to build a single nuclear bomb (if at all) in the near future."

      You know North Korea has detonated 2 nukes in the last 6 years right? Whilst I agree the stockpiles NK has are low enough to not be too big a deal, we're well past the "may" stage with them, we know they can, and they likely wouldn't detonate the only two they have, or at least not without having the capability to trivially make more:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_North_Korean_nuclear_test

      You're right that neither nation has ICBMs but North Korea's missile tests have demonstrated with mixed success at least some ability to launch something that could probably hit the US west coast and so of course Hawaii, or alternatively anywhere in Japan or South Korea.

      Iran is a different story, you're right that it's much less of a threat right now, but it's definitely the biggest potential threat in some years to come. The problem is it's enrichment capacity is being increased on an industrial scale, and it's "space" programme is moving full steam ahead. The issue with Iran therefore is not so much whether it's dangerous in this respect right now, it's not, but that it's pouring so many resources into the technology that once it's built one, that building a stockpile of tens of the things wont be much of a stretch.

      I agree with you that moving the doomsday clock is a sensible move though, and I think this is only a minor reason as to why - I think the civil unrest from New York, to London, to Tripoli, to Damascus caused by the financial crisis, the arab spring, and the potential for more frequent destructive weather patterns (droughts, hurricanes, etc.) are reasons enough that the inherent instability these issues cause increases risks. On a more positive note though, this turbulence caused by these events also has massive scope for positive improvement too - removal of brutal dictators, politicians being forced in general to listen more to the populace and so on.

    77. Re:Zeno by Xest · · Score: 1

      Because Iran actually wants nuclear weapons, not nuclear power.

      Russia has already been involved with helping develop their civilian nuclear plant (which was originally started by Germany), the problem is they wont let anyone else near their other underground nuclear facilities, hence why the IAEA has announced it's concerns that it hasn't been given access to check what it needs to check to confirm Iran is only interested in civilian nuclear power.

      We could call their bluff and offer to sell them civilian tech, but then they'd simply use the excuse that America is sending unstable plants to them to try and blow them up, or alternatively accept the deal and still continue covert enrichment in secret facilities to build nuclear weapons anyway.

    78. Re:Zeno by hypergreatthing · · Score: 1

      Having nukes isn't just a way to just produce power. It's a way to guarantee safety of your borders. No sane country will invade another if it will guarantee massive destruction. With all the posturing of war between the US and Iran, having a nuclear deterrence will definitely be a game changer.

    79. Re:Zeno by Bootsy+Collins · · Score: 1

      Well, they were certainly relevant from 1943-1945, when they were working in Los Alamos, Hanford and Oak Ridge and developed the atomic bomb.

    80. Re:Zeno by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      I would guess your best bet is a small burrowing omnivore

      So if you're living in your mother's basement, you survive? WooHoo! Geeks rule! The meek inherit the earth.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    81. Re:Zeno by monzie · · Score: 1

      Canada sold a dual purpose reactor called CIRUS to India. But here are some of my points'
      1. India is definitely not Iran ( Disclaimer: I am an Indian )
      2. India clearly demarcates the nuclear reactors which are dual-purpose and those which are used for civilain purposes only. The civilian reactors are under the IAEA supervision. This was the famous (and controversial) Indo-US nuclear deal
      Please get your facts right before putting India and Iran in the same sentence.

    82. Re:Zeno by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      The idea that we might run out of iron is just silly. Copper is used in electrics (replaceable with aluminum), pipes (replaceable with plastic), brasses and bronzes (most applications have superior replacements), and alloying additions for other metals. We'll adjust. Rare earths are too large a subject to cover here, but most of them have not been a subject of massive searches.

      There isn't much attention to the 70% of the surface under water. We've got a long way to go.

      --
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    83. Re:Zeno by bckrispi · · Score: 1

      The mere existence of nukes does not mean there will be nuclear war. If the global economy collapses, it will majorly suck but humanity survived the fall of the Roman, Greek and Ottoman empires. I think we can pull off this one too. I'm not even convinced that the worst-case climate dooms could be the end-all. Life on this planet has survived some pretty gnarly stuff. Maybe it'll never be the same but I'm inclined to believe that life will go on. Maybe not ours but is life really defined by humans?

      Yes, even in the event of a nuclear holocaust, some humans will survive. Ironically, they will be the same bastards who started WW3 in the first place. :(

      --
      Xenon, where's my money? -Borno
    84. Re:Zeno by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      Well, they can always move it back a minute if Obama gets re-elected. Maybe give him another Peace Prize while we're at it? :)

    85. Re:Zeno by Carewolf · · Score: 1

      Consensus is that DPRK/Iran may (!) have enough material to build a single nuclear bomb (if at all) in the near future.

      Consensus? It is fact that North Korea has already had nuclear tests. They not only have enough nuclear material, they have actual bombs. They also have long range missiles, but has not yet demonstrated intercontinental missile capability (I think so far they have overshoot Hawaii, and could probably hit Alaska as well).

      Iran is still working on distilling bomb-material, though of course, officially for their nuclear power plants.
       

    86. Re:Zeno by treeves · · Score: 1

      I don't think he was saying we'd run out of iron itself, but that we'd be energy-limited, therefore unable to refine any iron ore or recycle any more iron/steel.

      --
      ...the future crusty old bastards are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
    87. Re:Zeno by rainer_d · · Score: 1
      For lack of other evidence, I'm going to assume that they (North Korea) blow-up their stuff once they have enough of it.
      I'm sure that if either DPRK/Iran had a whole arsenal full of them, they'd be willing to show them.
      The chances that this is not true are very remote.
      It's a bluff - and everybody knows it. But everybody also knows that you can't call their bluff.
      You have to give them a chance to keep their face.
      KYU just wants to keep running the country like a mobster family business - and receive international recognition for that at the same time.
      MA, among other things, is probably prepping Iran with the tools for a post-american, post-petroleum future that you can get a glimpse at by looking into the current Iraq "situation" and watching old Mad Max films (if you can tell them apart).
      Hint: it's not about oil.

      It's water.

      MA is a loonatic and the scum of the earth - but he's also smart.
      When it's time to bargain over the water-supply for his country, he knows he will need - in the words of President Truman - "a big hammer".

      --
      Windows 2000 - from the guys who brought us edlin
    88. Re:Zeno by Jarik+C-Bol · · Score: 1

      i think the point is, With so many divergent claims, no one really knows. Which can either lend peace of mind, or the reverse, depending how you look at it.

      --
      I've decided to Diversify my Holdings. I've divided my cash between my left and right pockets, instead of all in one.
    89. Re:Zeno by ancientt · · Score: 1

      Doesn't Israel have them? Oh, you specified sane.

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      B) Eliminate all the stupid users. This is frowned upon by society.
    90. Re:Zeno by darkpixel2k · · Score: 1

      Do you know how MAD works?

      Yeah--it's pretty much Dr. Claw and his cat trying to wreak havoc on the world using an ineptly trained group of henchmen. Last time I checked they were pretty ineffectual thanks to Penny and Brain.

      --
      There's no place like ::1 (I've completed my transition to IPv6)
    91. Re:Zeno by Knave75 · · Score: 1
      From your own linked wikipedia article:

      although Canada stipulated, and the U.S. supply contract for the heavy water explicitly specified, that it only be used for peaceful purposes. Nonetheless, CIRUS has produced some of India's initial weapon plutonium stockpile,[3] as well as the plutonium for India's 1974 Pokhran-I (Codename Smiling Buddha) nuclear test, the country's first nuclear test.

      My point stands. India was sold a reactor for "peaceful" purposes, and made weapons. I suspect that Iran would do the same.

      Please get your facts right before putting India and Iran in the same sentence.

      Which fact did I get wrong?

    92. Re:Zeno by Knave75 · · Score: 1

      Doesn't Israel have them? Oh, you specified sane.

      If your implication is that the only democratic country in the region is not sane, then your standards are, to be honest, extremely high.

    93. Re:Zeno by ancientt · · Score: 1

      The actual implication intended is that the countries in the Middle East are, as a group, not sane. I don't think that having nuclear weapons has made Israel's borders safe.

      --
      B) Eliminate all the stupid users. This is frowned upon by society.
    94. Re:Zeno by Knave75 · · Score: 1

      Not yet, but I imagine that, when Iran actually gets nukes, they will think twice about wiping out Israel (at least from a missile launched from within their borders). That provides a certain measure of security to Israel.

      Israel, on the other hand, has had nukes for a few decades now and hasn't done anything stupid... so far so good.

  2. The answer is clear and obvious by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    Pixie dust.

    --
    Deleted
  3. Listen to us. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    We have a doomsday clock.

    1. Re:Listen to us. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      And you are not afraid to use it?

    2. Re:Listen to us. by Machtyn · · Score: 1

      My question is, when the rockets are flying and the nukes are landing, are we going to be hunkered down in our own Vault 13, looking up the Doomsday clock to see if it actually reached midnight?

  4. Eventually by mpeskett · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Sooner or later they're going to box themselves into a corner - they only have so many discrete 1-minute steps they can take before they find that the world is more fucked up than they thought possible, but somehow still carrying on.

    Then what? Leave it at 1-minute to midnight, or edge ever closer in smaller and smaller increments?

    1. Re:Eventually by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      "Today, the Doomsday Clock moved from 11:59:59.98 to 11:59:59.99, signaling that once again, scientists have proved that there are no simple metaphors that can't be abused beyond the point of utility."

    2. Re:Eventually by ArsonSmith · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "A symbolic clock is as emotionally reassuring as a picture of oxygen to a drowning man." -Dr. Manhattan

      --
      Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
    3. Re:Eventually by Chuq · · Score: 5, Informative

      You are aware that sometimes the clock moves AWAY from midnight?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Doomsday_Clock_graph.svg

      --
      - Chuq
    4. Re:Eventually by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This is what happened to (neo-)Malthusianism. Every generation since Malthus has predicted disaster at some invented threshold, and over and over these thresholds are surpassed. Humanity is immeasurably adaptable, precisely because when the crunch comes previously impossible things are made possible by that adaptability.

      I think that this move is particularly disingenuous and calls into question the group's whole integrity considering that the real, global effect of Fukushima has been nation after nation scaling back and drawing down nuclear power. I personally think it's retarded, but nonetheless it should be counted as one the most major changes in direction in the nuclear power industry in a generation, and this group thinks it has the opposite effect? There's just no pleasing some people, obviously.

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      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    5. Re:Eventually by bughunter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well perhaps the clock metaphor isn't doing them service anymore if the majority of reactions are to the metaphor than the message.

      Ultimately the point is, "we're going to pollute ourselves into the stone age." If that bit is being lost because the clock metaphor is becoming trite, then perhaps they should look for a new analogy.

      This being slashdot, I think you know what I'm driving at...

      --
      I can see the fnords!
    6. Re:Eventually by mpeskett · · Score: 1

      Just my pessimism showing through there. I know it goes both ways but I assume it's going to get closer to armageddon more often that it gets further away.

    7. Re:Eventually by artfulshrapnel · · Score: 1

      The actual name of this clock is "Zeno's Doom-o-Meter".

      You get closer and closer to "doomsday" without ever actually reaching it. (If you do reach it? The clock explodes and the point is moot.)

      Seriously, who came up with this method of measuring "doom"? The thing from the Futurama movie made more sense....

    8. Re:Eventually by mpeskett · · Score: 2

      This being slashdot, I think you know what I'm driving at...

      I believe I do. Car analogy time! That's what you were driving at, right?

      So the group of nuclear scientists should instead be adjusting the AC on the car of civilisation, to represent whether nuclear tensions have cooled off or heated up.

      Because of course if you turn the heater up too high, chances are you'll get all irritable, fly off the handle at some idiot who doesn't know how to drive, and launch an ICBM strike against that asshole who keeps tailgating you.

    9. Re:Eventually by timeOday · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Malthusian catastrophe is:

      Hong Kong residents living in cages

      China's One Child policy, and millions waiting for days in swamped transportation arteries for a shot at seeing their families once per year.

      The downfall of multiple governments triggered by rising food prices

      The German quest for lebensraum from 1939-1945.

      Now, you could argue those are all matters of resource allocation, rather than shortages per se. But what I see in the world is that as resources become scarce, they are distributed less equitably, not more.

    10. Re:Eventually by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Any scenario in which the US is destablized could result in nukes raining down somewhere.

      And there are always biological weapons which potentially have the power to destroy us by accident.

    11. Re:Eventually by Hentes · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Which is exactly not the behaviour you would expect from a clock. The metaphor is flawed.

    12. Re:Eventually by ModernGeek · · Score: 1

      It can move to after midnight, at which point the world ends up being a truly terrible place. Once the world is at peace again, it can move back to before midnight.

      --
      Sig: I stole this sig.
    13. Re:Eventually by 32771 · · Score: 1

      Well sometimes like during the cuban missile crisis, it could have all been over at 7 minutes to midnight.

      I liked their reasons much better:

      "It is five minutes to midnight. Two years ago, it appeared that world leaders might address the truly global threats that we face. In many cases, that trend has not continued or been reversed. For that reason, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is moving the clock hand one minute closer to midnight, back to its time in 2007."

      At some time in the future the world might look like as if we don't have much to lose through nuclear war. Do people have given up caring about that possibility all of a sudden?

      --
      Je me souviens.
    14. Re:Eventually by SleazyRidr · · Score: 1

      One one hand I agree with you, sure the world may have looked pretty bad in 1947, but starting it at 5 to didn't really leave them much room for if the situation got worse.

      On the other hand, it all depends on what you mean by "carrying on." The world "carried on" through 1939-1945, but that'd probably be at midnight on the clock.

    15. Re:Eventually by mrbester · · Score: 1

      First thing I thought of on seeing "Doomsday Clock" in the headline was Watchmen; didn't know it still existed.

      --
      "Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
    16. Re:Eventually by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      "Doomsday Yardstick" doesn't exactly have the same ring to it.

    17. Re:Eventually by Gnavpot · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You are aware that sometimes the clock moves AWAY from midnight?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Doomsday_Clock_graph.svg
       

      Interesting graph. It shows that the world was a safer place in the early sixties when the Cuban Missile Crisis almost started World War III.

      How many simultaneous nuclear power plant failures would it take to end the world in the same way a WW III would have done?

      What is the probability of all those failures happening now vs. the probability of a WW III happening in 1962?

    18. Re:Eventually by necrogram · · Score: 2

      Now we just need Doc Manhattan to start shredding the riff from Iron Maiden's "Two Minutes to Midnight" while riding a bomb down and i think we'll have all the pop culture references covered

    19. Re:Eventually by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 3, Interesting

      HK generally speaking has fairly high standard of living, and the exceptions that exist are the same sort of exceptions that exist everywhere, just with a different culture spin (I don't see anybody whining about the Japanese pod hotels... just doesn't have the same dramatic impact of cages). Density is so high there because everybody wants it. There's plenty of empty space in the world, but people don't want to be in empty space. They want culture and amenities, and will go to great lengths to stack themselves on top of those.

      Fertility rate has seen massive drops in almost every nation over the last several decades, so China's draconian measures are redundant to the world norm.

      Blaming Arab Spring on food prices is utter nonsense. All the nations "afflicted" with these revolutions had one thing in common: single-party dictatorships in power for decades. People were not fighting over the price of rice, they were fighting because these states had imprisoned and killed their family members. That's what's happening in Syria right now. The most generous way this could be bent to your perspective is that it was the government response to popular discontent about economic issues that catalyzed these revolutions. But where these economic issues have afflicted states with more open governments revolutions have not occurred. It is the combination of poor government and poor economic conditions, not economic conditions alone, that result in these events.

      The German situation was entirely political and doctrinal. Germany had in fact completely rectified its post-WWI economic issues before the opening of WWII. The whole German population could have lived in comfort and peace if it weren't for the political motives of Hitler and the rest of NSDAP leadership. (This is leaving out the more or less imminent thread presented by Stalin, where there is generally a consensus among historians that if Hitler hadn't started the war, Stalin would have in his stead.)

      So yes, none of these constitute Malthusian catastrophe, especially since none have impacted more than a nation here or there (WWII I don't even count for the reason above.)

      --
      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    20. Re:Eventually by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Think of it this way, if there are a few more nuclear accidents, then someone will close the rest of the plans. Thus, accelerating the energy crisis. And the culmination of the energy crisis is possibly (likely?) nuclear war. Not that another 3-mile island will destroy the planet, but that another 3 of them could get so much electrical generation shut down that war would be the only way to guarantee sufficient power, fulfilling the prophecy of the clock.

    21. Re:Eventually by djmurdoch · · Score: 5, Informative

      Re Fukushima: If you read the statement you'd see that they find the problem arising from Fukushima is that it caused a reduction in the amount of nuclear power being used, leading to increased reliance on burning fossil fuels.

      They'd like safer reactor designs, so more people use nuclear power.

      So what's that about integrity? You complain about them, without reading what they wrote?

    22. Re:Eventually by timeOday · · Score: 1

      People were not fighting over the price of rice, they were fighting because these states had imprisoned and killed their family members.

      No. People are fat and happy so long as their rice bowl is full. When it's not, you always see civil turmoil. Only then does the majority start noticing how "evil" their government is. No rule is 100%, but that rule is pretty close.

    23. Re:Eventually by Kittenman · · Score: 1

      This is what happened to (neo-)Malthusianism. Every generation since Malthus has predicted disaster at some invented threshold, and over and over these thresholds are surpassed.

      That's obviously because the thresholds were incorrectly defined. I've a project manager who works on the same principles.

      --
      "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes" - Winston Churchill
    24. Re:Eventually by genghisjahn · · Score: 1

      Once it goes past midnight and nothing happens...we're good again for 12 hours right?

      --
      Sorry about the mess.
    25. Re:Eventually by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 2

      And when the rice bowl is empty, if the government is nonetheless "good", there is no revolution because the existing framework remains useful to overcoming the economic difficulty. Look up 'necessary but not sufficient'. One or the other is stable even though they are bad, both conditions are usually necessary to bring about violent change.

      The unaddressed aspect in this is that these must necessarily be temporary problems brought about by logistical failings, otherwise no amount of government overturning would solve them. The very fact that states can and do rebuild themselves from periods of economic hardship indicates that there is no significant underlying problem, just bad and inefficient organization and governance which can be, and has been, ameliorated with proper measures after the fact.

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    26. Re:Eventually by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 1

      None of which had the scientific method. The Mayans specifically would still be around if they knew anything about crop rotation.

      Roman decline was primarily political and socio-cultural, with seasonal economic hardships helping but not underlying the decline (every ancient civilization had seasonal economic hardships).

      Christ, the Aztecs? Really? So is the analogy you're going for here that aliens from space are going to show up and kick our ass, and that will fulfill Malthusian theory?

      The Easter Islanders had very thin margins and no technology nor any method for its advancement. They were essentially a handful of stone age tribesmen in the middle of nowhere with nothing to use and no knowledge of what to do about it. They couldn't adapt because they had nothing to adapt with, economically or intellectually.

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      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    27. Re:Eventually by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 1

      That would be in complete denial of trends in energy production then, because most of the plans for these replacements are based on clean, renewable sources, if for no other reason then it makes the bill easier to sell the eco-cultist public. While fossil fuel-based energy will still be used to keep up with growth, it remains undeniable that green energy sources make up a higher percentage of energy production every year.

      --
      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    28. Re:Eventually by kesuki · · Score: 1

      "There's plenty of empty space in the world, but people don't want to be in empty space."

      wrong wrong wrong. where i live open space is a preference. they didn't want to live in big cities here. not everyone wants to be here who is here, but in general it's the type of mentality that big cities are full of greedy backward thinkers that narrow down living to the hours spent in come cage built by greedy land owners to make expensive houses for workers in big cities with long commutes.

      and i totally know why people get here and then try to bring the city with them, computers and tvs aren't always what the people living here care about. and i know very well that people living in big cities are not happier, and many wish they could just escape the grinding mill that is big city life.

      personally as long as I've got a computer and satellite link (and necessities) I'm good.

    29. Re:Eventually by LordKronos · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Which is exactly not the behaviour you would expect from a clock. The metaphor is flawed.

      Flawed? Please, I'll take their clock any day. So it moves backward on average 1-2 times per decade. Big deal. My clock has to do it once per year.

    30. Re:Eventually by Jiro · · Score: 1

      Alan Moore actually swiped the clock in Watchmen from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which was a bit more prominent in the 1980's than it is now.

    31. Re:Eventually by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Most of the plans are
      -talking about renewables for PR purpose
      -building coal plants everywhere with as little publicity as possible

    32. Re:Eventually by O('_')O_Bush · · Score: 1

      Why? They can just wiggle it back and forth (and around) for as much publicity as they want.

      --
      while(1) attack(People.Sandy);
    33. Re:Eventually by radtea · · Score: 2

      It shows that the world was a safer place in the early sixties when the Cuban Missile Crisis almost started World War III.

      Sure, because there was a charismatic Democrat in the White House. The "Bulletin of the Chemists" is a purely political organization that has always pushed a moderate Leftist agenda. As political lobbying organizations go they are relatively benign, but they should be recognized for exactly what they are: a group of moderate lefties who figured they could avoid defending their policies on their merits if instead they distracted everyone by "OMG we're all gonna die if you don't follow my plan" rhetoric.

      Much of the "climate change" debate is carried on by the same kind of cowards: people who don't have the guts to stand up and say, "Money is more important to me than polar bears so I don't give a shit what happens to them" so they argue "Climate change doesn't exist and if it does it isn't anthropogenic and won't harm the polar bears." Cowardice, pure and simple.

      How many simultaneous nuclear power plant failures would it take to end the world in the same way a WW III would have done?

      The same as the number of coal plant failures or hydro-electric plant failures required to end the world in the same way WW III would have done, obviously.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    34. Re:Eventually by radtea · · Score: 1

      Every generation since Malthus has predicted disaster at some invented threshold, and over and over these thresholds are surpassed.

      Actually every generation before Malthus had that too, although their disasters tended to be more of the "second coming" or similar kind. It varied with which particular raving lunatic was popular in a given society, with followers of Jesus favouring different kinds of apocalypse than followers of Mohammed.

      Malthusian catastrophism is just a secularization of the physical aspects of Abrahamic apocalysm in the same way Marxist revolutionary doctrine is a secularization of the social aspects.
       

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    35. Re:Eventually by radtea · · Score: 1

      So the group of nuclear scientists...

      Chemists, not nuclear scientists. I have no idea why anyone thinks "atomic scientists" have anything to do with nuclear physics, although it seems like the people behind this have successfully confused the general public for a long time.

      Perhaps they chose a misleading and dishonest name because they are misleading and dishonest people.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    36. Re:Eventually by sorak · · Score: 1

      You are aware that sometimes the clock moves AWAY from midnight?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Doomsday_Clock_graph.svg

      Yes, at the end of daylight savings time.

    37. Re:Eventually by Bootsy+Collins · · Score: 1

      You don't think it could be because a large fraction of the scientists that founded the magazine *were* atomic scientists, in the sense that they were significant figures at Los Alamos, Hanford and Oak Ridge from 1943-1945?

    38. Re:Eventually by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      It's not about creating more, but controlling the supply.

    39. Re:Eventually by Lunzo · · Score: 1

      I wish I had mod points for that post.

    40. Re:Eventually by Carewolf · · Score: 1

      Sure, because there was a charismatic Democrat in the White House. The "Bulletin of the Chemists" is a purely political organization that has always pushed a moderate Leftist agenda

      Interesting theory, but how do you explain that they considered the world safer under George Bush Senior, but rapidly deteriorating under Bill Clinton? The first could be a lucky coincidence with the fall of the wall and the USSR (revolutions in nuclear-capable nations are always such a safe situation), but then again not, and please explain 1992-2000?

    41. Re:Eventually by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The growth in renewable energy around the world has been about as fast as it can be without a WW II type effort to increase it. It will take another 20-30 years to build it out so it's the dominant energy source.

  5. Nothing Scientific about it by poifull · · Score: 2

    This is purely a fear mongering political protest.

    1. Re:Nothing Scientific about it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      >This is purely a fear mongering political protest.

      So, I gather the world is not going to hell in a hand basket?

      Go back to sleep and wake up to another beautiful day of shopping and consuming like all that would not bring about a day when it would be like there's no tomorrow.

      That's such a relief! I was worried there for a while.

      Everything is fine.

    2. Re:Nothing Scientific about it by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      Politics is no place for nuclear weapons policy! :)

      (I mean like, you're right, but you're expressing an opprobrium that is totally unjustified. Some dudes say nukes aren't a problem, some dudes do, some dudes sell bomb shelters and iodine tablets, some dudes draw pictures of clocks. Nuclear power is intensively political, and the BAS doesn't really make any pretensions to scientific proof. That's why they're "concerned" in the first place.)

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    3. Re:Nothing Scientific about it by Trepidity · · Score: 1

      I don't think they ever claimed that the number of minutes on the Doomsday Clock was a scientifically calculated probability or anything. Even back in 1947, it was intended as a symbolic statement. The only thing that's arguably changed is that it's outlived its usefulness and is no longer an effective statement in the way it used to be.

    4. Re:Nothing Scientific about it by g0bshiTe · · Score: 2

      I disagree and think it's just as relevant. If it promotes discussion then it serves it's purpose to remind us of what may be.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    5. Re:Nothing Scientific about it by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      no, more and more people are having a better life, life expectancy is getting longer. also, there is no shortage of resources in the world, and that which is "consumed" is still here, it does not fly off into space. get real.

  6. so close! by quaketripp · · Score: 5, Funny

    A few more minutes and we can start playing "2 minutes to midnight" by Iron Maiden!

    1. Re:so close! by Beardo+the+Bearded · · Score: 2

      Fuck that waiting, I'm going to play it right...

      now.

      --

      ---
      ECHELON is a government program to find words like bomb, jihad, plutonium, assassinate, and anarchy.
    2. Re:so close! by greg1104 · · Score: 1
    3. Re:so close! by Livius · · Score: 1

      Followed closely by "Minute to Midnight" by Roman Grey...

    4. Re:so close! by bckrispi · · Score: 1

      I'm sure you know this :) but the song itself was inspired by the Doomsday Clock. We reached "Two minutes to midnight" when both the US and USSR had successfully detonated the H-Bomb.

      --
      Xenon, where's my money? -Borno
  7. What about US planes and ballistic missiles? by tp1024 · · Score: 1, Troll

    The US wants to be able to attack any place on earth within 60min. It wants to be able to prevent any other country from retailiation. Space and air supremacy is the stated policy of the USA, basically world domination.

    Why doesn't that figure on the clock? Oh, right.

    1. Re:What about US planes and ballistic missiles? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      Yes, I'm sure the US wants world domination. This is why every country in the world salutes an American flag and celebrates the 4th of Ju... oh wait. The US is the only country that does that. It must mean the US isn't bent on world domination. If so, I'm sure it would have happened by now.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    2. Re:What about US planes and ballistic missiles? by mark-t · · Score: 1

      I am personally of the opinion that the only reason it hasn't happened by now is that they are outnumbered by the rest of the world by more than an order of magnitude, and they aren't so stupid as to think that going nuclear would actually have any sort of long term benefit.

    3. Re:What about US planes and ballistic missiles? by mark-t · · Score: 1

      Wow... touched a nerve, did I? There's plenty of reason to suspect what I mentioned above, especially in light of events that have occurred since the turn of this century... although I realize it's hardly proof.

    4. Re:What about US planes and ballistic missiles? by Eponymous+Hero · · Score: 1

      "Our overriding purpose, from the beginning right through to the present day, has been world domination - that is, to build and maintain the capacity to coerce everybody else on the planet: nonviolently, if possible; and violently, if necessary. But the purpose of our foreign policy of domination is not just to make the rest of the world jump through hoops; the purpose is to facilitate our exploitation of resources." -- Ramsay Clark, former US Attorney General

      i'm willing to bet he knows quite a bit more about it than you do.

      --
      insensitive clod overlords obligatory xkcd car analogy russian reversals whoosh pedant fanbois ftfy in 3...2...1..PROFIT
    5. Re:What about US planes and ballistic missiles? by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      It isn't about the U.S., it's about mega-corporations and the western banking cartel. they already dominate the world, and have governments including the US in their pocket. You'll notice as we went from "conservative" to "more liberal" government in the USA that really the mega-corporate agenda is still being followed. The Left/Right Conservative/Liberal Democrat/Republican dichotomy is just a distraction for the masses.

    6. Re:What about US planes and ballistic missiles? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Oh, the US empire is much more subtle than that.

  8. uh huh by shentino · · Score: 1, Offtopic

    Yeah yeah right right.

    Nice way to distract everyone from SOPA isn't it?

  9. 5 Minutes to midnight by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    is that GMT, UT, EST or what?

    1. Re:5 Minutes to midnight by Osgeld · · Score: 2

      BST

    2. Re:5 Minutes to midnight by newcastlejon · · Score: 1

      BST

      More like BS, methinks.

      --
      If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
  10. pre-RTFA Reactions by bughunter · · Score: 2

    'As we see it, the major challenge at the heart of humanity's survival in the 21st century is how to meet energy needs for economic growth in developing and industrial countries without further damaging the climate, exposing people to loss of health and community, and without risking further spread of nuclear weapons, and in fact setting the stage for global reductions.'

    I've held a very similar opinion for many, many years (as have many others, I'm certain). After reading this quote, I had two immediate reactions, one hopeful and one cynical:

    1. I'd like to think that safe, clean fusion power is just around the corner. I've become less convinced of this over the years but am still holding out hope. Can anything else provide the power levels and the energy densities required to sustain a technological urban society's advancement on the Kardashev scale?

    2. And we wonder where all the interstellar civilizations are. All signs are pointing to a factor in the Drake Equation that minimizes the number of civilizations that last long enough to achieve starfaring status. Sadly, it appears more and more that this factor approaches zero...

    --
    I can see the fnords!
    1. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by lobiusmoop · · Score: 2

      I'm more inclined to say that this implicit assumption of 'infinite growth' is more part of the problem than anything else. Endless growth is the paradigm of the cancer cell, and not a good model for civilization.

      --
      "I bless every day that I continue to live, for every day is pure profit."
    2. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by bughunter · · Score: 1

      The "implicit assumption" here is the goal of surviving as a technological species long enough so that we eventually are able to overcome the limits of this single planet and put down roots elsewhere. This appears more and more to require that we steward our environment carefully so that we don't kill or enfeeble ourselves before that happens. Perhaps that's a good thing -- before we can colonize another planet, we first have to learn how not to kill or enfeeble ourselves while living on this one.

      Even if we fail, this time, we won't go extinct... we'll just have to start over again. Perhaps it will be single-celled organisms, mollusks, or cockroaches that are given the next chance. But life will have another chance to propagate... perhaps to other planets.

      "Cancer cells" don't behave that way.

      --
      I can see the fnords!
    3. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by davidbofinger · · Score: 1

      The "implicit assumption" here is the goal of surviving as a technological species long enough so that we eventually are able to overcome the limits of this single planet and put down roots elsewhere.

      This won't stop us worrying. When we've colonised the galaxy we'll stop worrying about threats to single planets and start worrying about threats to the galaxy as a whole.

    4. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by Sabriel · · Score: 1

      The sun is a safe, clean fusion power source. Our species already has the technological capability sufficient to harness it for becoming a Type I, perhaps even (eventually) Type II, civilisation on the Kardashev scale. What our species so far lacks is the sociological capability to overcome our fractious instincts and irrational elements. So we remain stuck at the bottom, Type 0, wasting trillions of resource-units fighting over diminishing deposits of liquefacted fossil-corpses instead of executing an efficient transition of our civilisation from a hydrocarbon economy to a solar fusion economy.

      Instead quite likely billions of people will die as we lurch from one near-exinction event to the next, before we finally stagger into a sustainable architecture. That is, assuming we don't actually go extinct from a gloves-off biological war. This will be more difficult to avoid than a gloves-off nuclear war, because nukes are relatively expensive and decay rather than being relatively cheap, self-replicating and self-mutating.

      Hmm. That came out rather more depressing than I intended. Still, hopefully the scary pictures will provide motivation for those in charge. :p

    5. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by rdebath · · Score: 1

      Getting anywhere near a Type I civilisation using just solar power would devastate the environment. Doing it with just Earth based collectors wouldn't be reasonable; after all it's definition is (more or less) covering the entire surface of the world with solar cells. So you're talking about space borne solar power with beamed power back to the Earth. (It's very unreasonable to consider any significant portion of the population will move off this world to live in rabbit hutches elsewhere in the solar system.) The only beam based tools we have can't work at high power densities; they become cutting tools, so you still have to cover large areas with power collectors. Luckily this time you may be able to use the poles; but the environmental impact is still huge and will be destructive if you can't find some way to stop heat leakage.

      But that's just the technical problem, you then have the political problem of 10 petawatts of laser energy pointed at your voters, or as the opposition will put it 10,000 terawatt frickin laser cannons.

      The only reasonable way we know of to get to Type I levels is local fusion power, environmental damage does occur but it's limited to local areas where it can be repaired. The only problem is we don't have controllable fusion. But things are looking good, the plasma based methods will work eventually but we don't have the ability to sufficiently limit the search for the right detailed design so it's mostly trial and error. There are a few other methods too, sneaky low energy methods that have a low chance of ever working and various other, more promising, methods of confining small amounts of fuel at very high energies (laser, inertial, electrostatic and probably others I've missed) .

      So yes we may have the technological capability to get to Type I right now, but only if you have a spare Earth to give us, otherwise we need fusion.

    6. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by Sabriel · · Score: 1

      I was thinking most of the power usage going towards space-based industry across the solar system (e.g. melting down asteroids). As you say, that much power (from any source) being confined to Earth alone would have quite an impact - I'm reminded of Niven's Puppeteers, who had to move their covered-in-city planet away from its sun to manage the additional heat.

      Politics and lasers... hmm, yes, I'm going to go with whoever it was said (something like): the summary of the summary is that... people are a problem. :/

    7. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      ... after all it's definition is (more or less) covering the entire surface of the world with solar cells.

      The Sun puts more energy on the surface of the Earth in less than 12 hours than humans currently use in a year. We're not anywhere close to having to cover the whole planet or even the whole land surface of the planet with solar cells. A few years ago someone calculated how much area would have to be covered by solar cells to supply all of our power and it was about 40x40 (miles or kilometers, I don't remember which). That's pretty small to me.

    8. Re:pre-RTFA Reactions by rdebath · · Score: 1

      If you could collect the entire incident energy of the sun over that area (say by being in orbit) you may be right, one or two thousand square miles doesn't sound unreasonable. But most of that energy is absorbed or reflected by the atmosphere before it hits ground level and of that only a small percentage of the remainder will be collected by any current or near future collector.

      Based on that, current energy consumption (of about 20 Terawatts) needs closer to quarter of a million square miles of solar panels as has been calculated here.

      The area actually needed is huge, but it is possible for current power and some future growth. You will notice, however, that the prediction on that page doesn't go even one human lifetime into the future, let alone the time periods that "renewables" are supposed to last.

      If you want really long term there are two choices; fission and fusion. Fission of U-238 can be done now and known reserves are estimated to last of the order of 4 billion years, which is longer than the Earth will remain habitable without serious air conditioning. Before then they'll have to have solved the fusion problems else everyone gets a really good suntan.

  11. News for nerds? by kwerle · · Score: 1

    I was going to ask:
    How is this "News for nerds - stuff that matters?"

    But it looks like /. dropped that tagline. And a good thing, too, since this is just crap.

    1. Re:News for nerds? by forkfail · · Score: 1

      Maybe because the clock is run by nerd types? One of the few truly public venues where nerds get to tell the rest of the world how badly they're screwing things up...

      --
      Check your premises.
    2. Re:News for nerds? by mark-t · · Score: 1

      I can still see the tagline on the slashdot home page. What are you talking about?

    3. Re:News for nerds? by kwerle · · Score: 1

      I realized, belatedly, that it is still in the title. Used to be prominent in the page - as I recall.

  12. Mission creep by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    I have it on authority, that next year's doomsday criteria will include sasquatch sightings.

  13. Iran.... by stanlyb · · Score: 2

    They forgot to mention the coming war with Iran. Like it or not, for reason or without, it is coming.

    1. Re:Iran.... by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      "coming war"? Aren't we *still* at war? After all, we did violently overthrow a legally elected ruler to set up a brutal dictator, again in retaliation for treating oil companies "unfairly.". And things have gone downhill since then.

    2. Re:Iran.... by Motard · · Score: 1

      There's pretty much no chance of that happening in the near term. The worst case scenario is that they already have nukes and can stage a 12th Imam Nuclear Tantrum when threatened from within. Rather than MAD, this would likely result in MAID (Mutually Assured Iranian Destruction).

      Any open war between Iran and the west would begin with the complete annihilation of Iranian airpower, command and control capabilities (see: Iraq), along with the destruction of any asset that could be used to threaten the Strait of Hormuz..

      After that, there'd be little need put boots on the ground (apart from humanitarian reasons perhaps). Iran is surrounded by countries with varying degrees of western support.

      They're rattling sabers because that's pretty much all they can do.

    3. Re:Iran.... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Invading Iran would be an even bigger mistake than invading Iraq was. You think the federal deficit it bad now?

  14. Sounds like... by Caerdwyn · · Score: 1

    Sounds like someone needs their pet social experiment to be funded.

    --
    Everybody gets what the majority deserves.
  15. Safe for a century and a half by nman64 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    So, a doomsday clock that started at 11:53 in 1947 is now at 11:55... based upon that rate of advancement (2 minutes per 65 years, obviously ignoring any other adjustments), we should be safe for over a century and a half. I've heard far more alarming predictions than that. Nothing to see here.

    1. Re:Safe for a century and a half by syousef · · Score: 5, Funny

      So, a doomsday clock that started at 11:53 in 1947 is now at 11:55... based upon that rate of advancement (2 minutes per 65 years, obviously ignoring any other adjustments), we should be safe for over a century and a half. I've heard far more alarming predictions than that. Nothing to see here.

      Personally I find it very alarming that a group of nuclear scientists can't even make a clock that doesn't work at a consistent rate. Perhaps what they need is to invent an atomic clock ;-)

      --
      These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    2. Re:Safe for a century and a half by L4t3r4lu5 · · Score: 1

      So, a doomsday clock that started at 11:53 in 1947 is now at 11:55... based upon that rate of advancement (2 minutes per 65 years, obviously ignoring any other adjustments), we should be safe for over a century and a half. I've heard far more alarming predictions than that. Nothing to see here.

      They're saving the final 4 minutes for 23.56, 23.57, 23.58, and 23.59 December 20th.

      --
      Finally had enough. Come see us over at https://soylentnews.org/
    3. Re:Safe for a century and a half by radtea · · Score: 1

      Personally I find it very alarming that a group of nuclear scientists can't even make a clock that doesn't work at a consistent rate.

      I find it very alarming that anyone thinks nuclear scientists are in any way involved in this group.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    4. Re:Safe for a century and a half by Lunzo · · Score: 1

      The parent post isn't interesting, it's ignorant. The clock moves forward and backwards based on how likely the world is to blow everyone away with M.A.D. It's been closer to midnight e.g. during the Cuban missile crisis and much further from midnight e.g. the fall of the Soviet Union.

  16. Well, they're right. by forkfail · · Score: 1

    We managed not to incinerate ourselves (yet) in nuclear fire, but we sure do seem to be doing a heck of a job of destroying the ecosystem that we are a part of, soiling our nests, devouring our resources like locust on steroids, and generally acting with all the foresight of bacteria in a sealed Petri dish.

    --
    Check your premises.
    1. Re:Well, they're right. by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Assuming that you ignore the fact that 'the environment' in Western nations is vastly better off than it was in 1947. We don't get thousands of people dying in a London smog these days, for example.

    2. Re:Well, they're right. by Beardo+the+Bearded · · Score: 1

      Maybe Prometheus' Challenge had nothing to do with atomics. Maybe all along it's been how we can stop ourselves from roasting the planet to a cinder.

      --

      ---
      ECHELON is a government program to find words like bomb, jihad, plutonium, assassinate, and anarchy.
    3. Re:Well, they're right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Assuming that you ignore the fact that 'the environment' in Western nations is vastly better off than it was in 1947. We don't get thousands of people dying in a London smog these days, for example.

      That's in part because the west has exported its manufacturing of consumer goods (and therefore exported its pollution and environmental degradation) to "developing nations" that have lower wages and fewer environmental regulations. Cheap goods for us = smog for China.

    4. Re:Well, they're right. by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Heat death of the universe is inevitable. The only question is "when?" And apparently, that's a few minutes from now.

  17. Unaware by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

    I was unaware that the clock was used for anything other than how close we were to nuclear war.

    --
    I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    1. Re:Unaware by pushing-robot · · Score: 1

      It also monitors exploding psionic squid.

      --
      How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
    2. Re:Unaware by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      What said in the article convinces you otherwise?

    3. Re:Unaware by radtea · · Score: 1

      I was unaware that the clock was used for anything other than how close we were to nuclear war.

      I was unaware the clock was used for anything but political commentary by a bunch of gutless moderate lefties on the current state of US policy. I've got nothing against the left (if I were an American I'd be considered very far left, which makes me a moderate liberal democrat in the rest of the world) but I do have something against cowardice, and from their misleading and dishonest name to their distracting and irrelevant tactics the "Bulletin of the Chemists" deserves some kind of prize for cowardice in political discourse. They have a definite political agenda but they attempt to hide it behind a purportedly objective measure of risk of nuclear war, which is in fact nothing but their subjective response to current American policy and has no objective basis whatsoever.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    4. Re:Unaware by bckrispi · · Score: 1

      You are aware of what causes war, right? If a nation runs out of resources, or worse, food and water, they will often send their armies in to take these resources from a neighbor. This isn't some theory from "gutless moderate lefties". This is a fact backed up by thousands of years of recorded history. Now, instead of nations of a few hundred-thousand armed with bronze weapons, we have nations of billions armed with nukes. Economic instability sets the tempo of the march to war. You want to roll the dice to see what happens when China no longer has oil to feed its growth?

      --
      Xenon, where's my money? -Borno
  18. Re:Energy Correction is easy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Technology is not the issue, its those who get in the way is where the problem is.

    Yes quite, but not in the way you suggest.
    The issue is people like you spouting this sort of claptrap until the point comes where people are shouting "where's my damn jetpack?!" instead of getting some real work done to improve our species' lot.

  19. I will laugh... by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    When the clock strikes midnight and nothing happens....

    1. Re:I will laugh... by mark-t · · Score: 1

      The doomsday clock is not to be interpreted as predictor of the end of the world. It is an reflection of how realistically close we are to global thermonuclear war When the clock "strikes midnight" it will be because a war has already escalated to that level.

    2. Re:I will laugh... by compro01 · · Score: 1

      The clock does not constantly move forward. it gets set backwards occasionally. It was at 11:43 in 1991 when they were feeling real optimistic about the cold war having ended, though it's marched forward fairly steadily since then except for moving back a minute in 2010.

      Basically, it's an indicator of whether we (in a global sense) are acting stupidly or not.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
  20. Re:Energy Correction is easy. by Beardo+the+Bearded · · Score: 1

    Fucking Carnot cycle, how does it work?

    --

    ---
    ECHELON is a government program to find words like bomb, jihad, plutonium, assassinate, and anarchy.
  21. Professional pessimists by mveloso · · Score: 1

    If they had sex with a supermodel they'd be complaining that it ruined their sex life forever.

  22. I hate this negativism by Igarden2 · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Gloom and frickin doom. I wish they'd stuff that stupid clock where the sun don't shine. I'm sick of all this fear mongering. Why don't they do something to help people for once?
    There, I feel better now.

    --
    Normally I ascribe all life to intelligent design, but in your case I'll make an exception.
  23. Stupid PR by Bogtha · · Score: 1

    Fukushima might have been a disaster, but it's not something that can cause the end of the world. What's the point in including it?

    --
    Bogtha Bogtha Bogtha
  24. Politics in Science by v(*_*)vvvv · · Score: 2, Insightful

    There is nothing scientific about this clock, and most scientists would surely admit it. It is political and is meant to sway public opinion. So what we have here are either a) fake scientists, b) real scientists shooting themselves in the foot, or c) politicians.

    The whole point of the scientific method is to be grounded on evidence and be void of any political, social, or even personal biases. I have nothing against this silly clock, but as long as science lends its name to garbage such as this, science will always have a hard time in politics claiming itself to be scientific.

  25. Great! by vinayg18 · · Score: 1

    When this article makes the rounds on Associated Press, it should really help disperse the 2012 apocalypse bullshit.

    1. Re:Great! by DaMattster · · Score: 1

      When this article makes the rounds on Associated Press, it should really help disperse the 2012 apocalypse bullshit.

      Trust me the apocalypse topic just will not die .... especially this year.

  26. Re:And no one gave a shit by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

    This is probably one of the most irrelevant groups around.

    I vote for MADD. They got the drinking limit lowered to the point where talking on a phone is less safe than driving drunk, and are still out there, pushing hard like if they declared victory, everyone would drink to that, then drive home. SADD is sadly more relevant, as they are more a social organization than PAC bent on absolute Prohibition (apparently nobody told them that was tried before).

  27. Oblig. by Wraithlyn · · Score: 4, Funny

    The whole point of a doomsday clock... is LOST if you keep it a secret!

    WHY DIDN'T YOU TELL THE WORLD, EH?

    --
    "Mind, as manifested by the capacity to make choices, is to some extent present in every electron." -Freeman Dyson
  28. North Korea / iran are the real nuke risks by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 1

    Iran more then north korea

    1. Re:North Korea / iran are the real nuke risks by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      You are so barking up the wrong tree there. When Kim Jong-il died people cried in the streets and flogged themselves. The was because that when Kim Il-sung died who did not grieve hard enough or publicly enough were arrested, tortured and in some cases executed. We have no idea what's in Kim Jong-un's brain and who is feeding him what information. Does he think his father and grandfather were gods? Does he think he's a god? Does he care if his people are killed? North Korea makes Iran look sane in comparison.

      And that's before you mention that North Korea has the bomb and Iran doesn't. And Iran has had demonstrations against its leaders. Nobody in North Korea would dare.

    2. Re:North Korea / iran are the real nuke risks by Cimexus · · Score: 2

      Agreed. Iran isn't friendly to the West, but it's an advanced country where many (not all) have a pretty decent quality of life and enjoy far more freedoms than those in NK. Iranian people know something about the outside world and is free to travel to (most) other countries. And it seems many do - bumped into quite a lot of Iranians around the place while travelling (particularly in Asia and Europe) and they seem articulate and well-educated.

      Compare that to NK where most cannot travel and you are fed, literally from birth, a constant stream of misinformation along the lines of "other countries are evil/trying to destroy us, and those that aren't live in terrible poverty far worse than what we have here in North Korea".

      Plus the Iranian leaders are at least vaguely rational human beings. I think North Korea is far more likely to do something crazy and irrational that would result in war than Iran is.

  29. Reasons for War with Iran ... a Primer by Kittenman · · Score: 1

    Reasons:

    a) One large US army in Iraq

    b) One large US army in Afghanistan

    c) Elections coming close

    --
    "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes" - Winston Churchill
  30. We live in precarious times by abelb · · Score: 2

    With Pakistan shuffling their nukes around in un-armoured minimally guarded vans, North Korea continuing to develop its nuclear facilities and Iran apparently hell bent on getting the bomb I'm more surprised they didn't move the needle sooner.

  31. 2 Minutes to Midnight by whipnet · · Score: 1

    Iron Maiden pops to mind every time I hear about the doomsday clock. *

  32. Eventually...they will be RIGHT! by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

    Then they'll say, "You can't say we didn't warn you!" Oh but wait, they won't be here to gloat, will they?

    ANY (analog) clock with stopped hands is right twice a day!

  33. I just wanna know... by bratwiz · · Score: 1

    I just wanna know, after we blow ourselves to kingdom come and hideously irradiate the planet and cook it with greenhouse gases and stuff...

    Who's gonna wind the Doomsday clock??

  34. MAD by SirGarlon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Now granted, MAD works better when your enemy is a large country who values their lives - it gets a bit iffy when your enemy is a small band of religious wackos who don't much care whether they're dead or alive, as long as they've made their point.

    Just to recap, "MAD" stands for "Mutually Assured Destruction." If the enemy is a small band of religious wackos they can't get enough nukes to destroy a major country. One city, sure; ten cities, maybe; destroy the country, no way. So they can do some damage but not destroy their target. Likewise they are hard to locate and easy to disperse. You'd be surprised how useless nukes are against a moving enemy whom you can't locate to within a few miles' radius. So the whole MAD strategy becomes irrelevant. Neither side can destroy the other but they can nuke each other ... maybe multiple times. This is why nuclear proliferation is scary: it changes the stable MAD scenario to an unstable one where there is no deterrent to small-scale nuclear exchange.

    --
    [Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
  35. MAD works? by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    Careening from crisis to crisis does not seem like something that works. It has not crashed yet, but it will. Disarmament is what works.

    1. Re:MAD works? by CapOblivious2010 · · Score: 1

      Careening from crisis to crisis does not seem like something that works. It has not crashed yet, but it will. Disarmament is what works.

      Interesting... you take something that has worked (or at least not failed) for many decades and assure us it will fail... and you take something that's never even been tried, and assure us it will work. There's a word for beliefs which are completely independent of evidence: Faith

  36. Why Fukushima? by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    I was curious about this so I listened to the press conference. They are saying that Fukushima shows that the global nuclear power industry is vulnerable to the worst run nuclear plants. Basically they are afraid that Fukushima will slow the growth of nuclear power which they (mistakenly) think would help with global warming. http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center%2FLibrary%2FE09-01_NuclearPowerClimateFixOrFolly

  37. In other news... by Cant+use+a+slash+wtf · · Score: 1

    Bullshit meter has gone through the roof!

  38. Clock should have been reset with fall of USSR by Karmashock · · Score: 1

    I don't mind them setting it forward for various reasons but if we're to pretend it has any relation to reality then they need to set the clock WAY back before they start moving it forward.

    We are not that close to global thermonuclear war. We're just not. Maybe we'll have a little engagement with Iran... maybe they'll even pop a SINGLE nuke off and we'll respond by annihilating them. But that isn't the doomsday clock. It has to be global war for it to be doomsday and Iran doesn't have that power.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    1. Re:Clock should have been reset with fall of USSR by bckrispi · · Score: 1

      Do the math: Every year, there is a certain probability that a world with nuclear weapons will use them. Given enough time, nuclear war becomes a statistical certainty.

      --
      Xenon, where's my money? -Borno
    2. Re:Clock should have been reset with fall of USSR by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      ... you say do the math like we could actually calculate that...

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
  39. Catastrophic? by EskimoJoe · · Score: 1

    Again, who says climate change is catastrophic? More people die due to cold weather than warm weather. More polar bears die due to hunting than drown at sea. The reactionist, look at me groups need to get a grip and read "Cool It" by Bjorn Lomborg.

    --
    Get your Kicks on Route 66
  40. Meaningless by miltonw · · Score: 1

    Of course, the "Doomsday Clock" is completely meaningless, based as it is on a few peoples' opinions, it does have a use. When hand-waving and foot stomping don't convince people to do what you think they should do, try panicking them.

  41. Re:Energy Correction is easy. by rubycodez · · Score: 1

    Get a clue, pal. It takes at least 50% (and usually more like 100% on industrial scale) more energy to split water than you get back by burning the product gases. There are thus n no "water powered cars", just scams. And chumps and suckers who believe them, such as you.

    There is "free energy" in the world, it comes from the Sun. The biosphere has been running off of it for billions of years. But until we perfect our biological engineering skills, we'll be needing more concentrated energy sources that cost money to build and to feed.

  42. Re:Zeno, or what did you do in the war Daddy? by Phoghat · · Score: 1

    I seriously wonder what would happen if the US got nukes launched at it though

    Buy my book coming out on Amazon next month to find out. (Hint:most countries in South America become Super Powers)

    --
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
  43. Yes by phorm · · Score: 1

    To some extent, the answer is yes. I doubt we'd have many poo-powered data-centers, but things (stoves, heaters, etc) that would use natural gas can use methane-burners:
        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16203507

    There are tests in using treated sewage for biofuel in vehicles or small power plants
        http://futureoftech.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/11/7349762-poop-fuels-hydrogen-cars
        http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5335635/ns/us_news-environment/t/poop-power-sewage-turned-electricity/

    IMHO, it makes sense. More people = more energy needs = more waste. If we can find a way to reconstitute our waste into something useful, then the two scale together somewhat usefully.

    1. Re:Yes by ubrgeek · · Score: 1

      Phorm, you really take the fun out of making poop posts :)

      --
      Bark less. Wag more.
    2. Re:Yes by phorm · · Score: 1

      Ahhh, but think about how much fun you could have if such technology comes to fruition.

      "But dear, I need to eat this extra bean burrito to offset our energy costs"

  44. Yawn. by Hasai · · Score: 2

    Throughout history, the most accurate depiction of human civilization is that of a man running for his life, with a pack of ravening wolves snapping at his heels. So; what else is new?

    --

    Regards;

    Hasai

  45. Re:Energy Correction is easy. by 3seas · · Score: 1

    Sure you don't want to focus on an even smaller piece of the puzzle, like maybe the mount screw used to mount the fuel cell inside the car?

    Perhaps you need to do more searching on "free energy", "zero point energy", "new energy" devices?

    and the Carnot cycle... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnot_cycle

  46. As we see it... misses the irony by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    "As we see it, the major challenge at the heart of humanity's survival in the 21st century is how to meet energy needs for economic growth in developing and industrial countries without further damaging the climate, exposing people to loss of health and community, and without risking further spread of nuclear weapons, and in fact setting the stage for global reductions."

    As my sig suggests, there may be something more deeply important psychologically underlying that challenge: "The biggest challenge of the 21st century is the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those thinking in terms of scarcity."

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.