Nebraska Scientists Refuse To Carry Out Climate Change-Denying Study
Lasrick writes "Nebraska researchers say they refuse to be used as political pawns: 'The problem, according to members of the governor-appointed Climate Assessment and Response Committee, is that the bill behind the study specifically calls for the researchers to look at 'cyclical' climate change. In so doing, it completely leaves out human contributions to global warming.'"
How do we keep politics out of this?
Why do we not need a study on cyclical climate change? Recognizing how much of global warming isn't due to humans is also important.
Name one other country with a political party who is so hellbent on reality distortion to do such silly things with tax payer money? Name one other country who will purposedly ally themselves with corporate interests agaisn't the will of the people to do such silly things like publish these studies?
America is turning into the laughing stock of the world. It is truly embarrasing. Conservative Americans might be mad at my post or the suggestions we should all start voting for democrats, but at least they are somewhat sane and do not deny reality.
http://saveie6.com/
without human involvement and they think they aren't being political as well ?
Surely some of the AGW denying researchers like Roy Spencer will take up the invitation. Funny thing about Spencer and his ilk, though. They're quick to take Koch money to attack AGW, but seem reticent to do actual research to back up their frequent public skepticism.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
. . . Scientists refuse to carry out a pedophile-glorifying study for NAMBLA.
In forums all across America, pedophiles complain about "Damn scientists, damn eddekashun, and their political biases."
But only if that skepticism is also applied to one's own ideas.
Vanity makes it easy to be skeptical of others' theories but it's leaving open the possibility that one's own theories could be mistaken that makes one a scientist.
These scientists are misguided, to put it kindly. I don't think they've really thought out their positions.
First, science is science. There is value in studying the natural climatic progressions of the planet.
Most importantly, by refusing they are doing far more to help deniers than they would be by doing the study. Just makes them look like they have something to hide to the typical conspiracy minded denier dolt.
by virtue of leaving out the human impact on earths climate you would be including it. amirite?
here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeYfl45X1wo and here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ge0jhYDcazY are 2 ways falsify the co2 heating effect. go ahead, falsify.
Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
Good lord, what the fuck is wrong with the commenters here? It's for the same reason that biologists wouldn't consent to researching intelligent design as a 'falsifiable alternative' to evolution, without evolution being a part of the study. The study is framed in a way that ignores the overwhelming weight of the evidence and lends credibility to crackpots.
More proof that the AGW movement is a cult. Real scientists would do the investigation o learn more about climate change, not shrink away from it just because it upsets their insular worldview.
I would have a lot more respect for "not wanting to be political pawns" if they had not already chosen a side of the board.
If the existing data used to base the current conclusions were open to all, you might have more independent scientists investigating this too.
Time Bomber the Book coming soon.
So should government fund Young Earth Creationism "Research" / Intelligent Design research?
the point of public funding is that there isn't supposed to be any "paymasters"
You can't selectively investigate one possibility while completely ignoring the other.
That's directly absurd. So directly absurd, it's difficult for me to believe you aren't simply bold-faced lying.
Some variance to climate change we observe is unquestionably due to non-human factors. Charts detailing this over tens of thousands of years can be called up by anyone at will with a google search.
The relative effects of human-created change cannot be evaluated apart from that historical pattern, and there is nothing the least unscientific about this fact, nor the quite-measurable, quite-quantifiable, quite-studyable, quite-scientific sources of change that are not of human origin.
Why do we not need a study on cyclical climate change? Recognizing how much of global warming isn't due to humans is also important.
How are the two not inherently related? Doesn't determining one determine the other? If p is the percentage due to human influence then 1.0 - p is the percentage due to non-human influence.
Nobody is denying the climate is changing, we're questioning whether MANKIND is responsible for it.
These criminal fraudsters (man made global warming alarmists), so-called 'scientists', should all be arrested and tried for defrauding the taxpayer, worthless parasites.
> the study specifically calls for the researchers to look at 'cyclical' climate change
It's almost as if someone has proposed a hypothesis to be either validated or rejected by examination.
Except that it would have to be either demonstrable or falsifiable to be a hypothesis. There's no point to "study" the existence of something someone just pulled out of their ass to try to make a political point, especially when there is every indication that the person defining something as ephemeral as "cyclical climate change" will simply claim the study didn't add enough epicycles.
Recalls Ace of Spades:
"If only there were some. . .natural mechanism by which to explain variations in global temperature.
It would have to be massive, though. On the scale of our own Sun."
The idea that, just because I find the "Anthropogenic Global Climate Warming Change" club is tantamount to a religious cult armed with a computer model means that
I am automatically contending that "climate is constant", is more than a little silly. The idea of nature conservation is as conservative as conservare.
If the last decade of ManBearPiggery has taught anything, it is the imperative to reject categorically all appeals to guilt & fear. Make the argument, put the raw data and the model out there for calm reflection, or understand that you've completely undercut your point.
Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
Politician: We're commissioning a study on biodiversity. But this study strictly focuses on intelligent design, so don't include anything about evolution. After all, we should explore alternative explanations for a prevailing theory.
Biologist: We refuse to participate in your misleading, artificially limited study.
Idiot Slashdot Commenters: The biologists are an evolutionist cult! They're... they're building a cathedral! Science isn't just confirming what you know! Real scientists would do the investigation to learn more about intelligent design!
And yes, before, you say it, cyclical climate change is a real phenomenon while intelligent design is not. But the idea is the same. You can't analyze an effect and pretend one of its primary causes just doesn't exist.
So they do not or will not recognize that weather is or can be cyclical. No surprise since on longer time scales than a generation or two of human activity becomes said activity becomes immeasurably minute compared to geological, solar influences and things on a much more macro level. Those "scientists" insisting on including human activity is like a scientist looking at a grain of sand in an ant hill and declaring the whole of the earth is a desert.
My karma is not a Chameleon.
IPCC WG1 Section 7, IIRC. Attribution of climate change.
Already done.
Moreover "cyclic climate change" *by definition* will not "establish baseline change" since it only does a fourier transform of the data, not describe what makes it do that.
In Sweden the radical-feminist ideology has made similar intrusions in the free scientific research. This is not an American-only problem. Watch from ca. 1:39:00 or thereabout. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn3cHsHnUPM The program was made by Swedens state television by a Iraqi-Swedish female journalist and she came close to leading Swedish politicians and feminist lobbyists only because of their overly positive PR stance towards women from third-world countries.
But she is more than willing to be a political pawn for the pro-humans-are-causing-climate-change-fanatics.
She is shallower than a puddle of water in the Sahara.
My karma is not a Chameleon.
Oh? Why not? It's done all the time. People seem to think studies require bias, when in fact you should be trying to avoid it.
No one has RTFA it seems ... (I know, I know, /.)
The scientists are being asked to study the effects of climate change on Nebraska, not climate change itself.
in that context restricting them to studying the effects of cyclical changes only is stupid, and the reason for their protest.
See also the longer article here http://www.omaha.com/article/20131024/NEWS/131029338/1707#state-climate-change-study-may-go-begging-for-scientists
Of course you can. Does smoking cause cancer? That doesn't deny that radiation causes cancer, it just looks at whether smoking causes cancer.
More like they know the human involvement angle is going to be blatantly suppressed.
The "president" of the IPCC is the guy that owns the worlds biggest trading company of "carbon credits".
This claim would be more interesting with a citation. The chair of IPCC is Rajendra K. Pachauri (since 2002). What is the name of the carbon credit trading company he owns?
Conservative Americans might be mad at my post ...
Only because you assume that conservatives are anti-science.
That is a truly foolish thing to do. Voting for a party, being loyal to a party, makes oneself irrelevant. The party you favor can ignore you because they have your vote, the other party can ignore you because they can not get your vote.
... but at least they are somewhat sane and do not deny reality.
You are absolutely wrong. They are believers or deniers of science and reality depending upon the issue. Both parties have core beliefs that are held as articles of faith that can not be disputed.
Methodology is supposed to override objective in science. It doesn't matter whether my hypothesis is that the world is round or flat, in the former case it should be upheld and the latter case it should be invalidated, but in either case science should produce the correct result. What "lends credibility to crackpots" is if scientists are specifically avoiding doing science because of how they feel the results will be cited, because frankly at that point the crackpots are right, there *is* a conspiracy against their views.
When things get complex, multiply by the complex conjugate.
wow
Everyone has an agenda. Government is the most powerful entity in our mixed society. It is (and has amply proven itself to be) capable of corruption, graft, and political pursuit of goals contrary to the interests of those who are taxed to fund it.
Concentration of power is the problem. Politically, big corporations and big government are a difference without a distinction. They both pursue their own agendas in service to the elites who are stakeholders, and then use propaganda to claim otherwise.
"They excluded it because it suits their political goals to reach a certain conclusion, which is about as unscientific as you can get."
Do you have any actual evidence of this, beyond the obvious slant of the Slashdot headline? Do you have an "ignore human factors" citation to offer?
"The word “cyclical” was added to the legislation by State Sen. Beau McCoy, a Republican who represents western Douglas County and is a candidate for governor. McCoy could not be reached late Wednesday.
Last April, during debate on the bill, McCoy said: “I don't subscribe to global warming. I think there are normal, cyclical changes.”"
From this article: http://www.omaha.com/article/20131024/NEWS/131029338/1707#state-climate-change-study-may-go-begging-for-scientists
Method:
1. Collect data on pre-inhabited Nebraska [ say 1CE - 1700 CE - soil samples, tree rings, etc.. ]
2. Take earliest modern measurements [ say 1890 - 1900 ].
3. Superimpose #2 measurements upon #1 curves.
4. Announce expected weather for 1950 - 2050; ignoring actual measurements made during this period.
5. Conclude that the difference between measured, 1950..2013, and expected is human caused.
6. Spend rest of budget on beer + pizza.
It might actually be interesting.....
go ahead, falsify.
Well, since you asked me...
A bit of gas in a small glass container cannot be said to have any direct relationship to the thermodynamics of a global-scale dynamic system, which is subject to rotation, daily heating and cooling, convection, conduction, and other forms of latent heat exchange.
There. Falsified. Have a nice day.
So should government fund Young Earth Creationism "Research" / Intelligent Design research?
If it would actually serve to prove them wrong, then yes, they probably should. I don't see why some people have such trouble with this concept.
Except that it would have to be either demonstrable or falsifiable to be a hypothesis. There's no point to "study" the existence of something someone just pulled out of their ass to try to make a political point
Um... sorry. But cyclical climate events are KNOWN to exist. This isn't some harebrained theory somebody "pulled out of their ass". They are known and legitimate phenomena that are great subjects for further research.
There are known solar cycles for example. There are known cycles in the Gulf Stream, there is ENSO, etc., etc...
You simply can't properly understand anthropogenic warming (if such truly exists), without understanding these known cycles as well. It isn't possible.
So they won't study answer a scientific question which was asked and which they were paid to answer unless they also get to answer a different question. As if eliminating some of the variables from a scientific inquiry were a legitimate method of inquiry. They are not refusing to political pawns. They are acting as political operatives in that they are putting their politics above answering a legitimate scientific question.
Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
The description of the project: An attempt to explain the current period of warming without considering human contributions sounds like a repeat of the Koch brothers funded project "Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature" (BEST).
I'll let the founder of BEST, Richard Muller, summarize their findings:
"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."
Richard Muller
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Your point does not follow from your last sentence. In any case...
Sure, in some cases you can have enough control to allow for a more selective approach. When you're talking about a system where you can't guarantee the independence of the small portion you're examining, you're inviting misinterpretations that would've been avoided by keeping the rest of the system in mind.
Actually, Salon is quoting this article
http://www.omaha.com/article/20131024/NEWS/131029338/1707#state-climate-change-study-may-go-begging-for-scientists
CM www.cometenergysystems.com Blog: http://caribbeanrenewable.blogspot.com/
Wait a minute -- I thought all those climate scientists were just echoing the party line to keep getting rich on grant money?
Lacking <sarcasm> tags,
The IPCC creates reports based on the scientific studies of Climatologists.
These reports include both natural and human contributions to climate change.
The IPCC could not have come to the conclusion that human activity is partly responsible for the current period of warming if they hadn't looked at natural contributions.
NASA's Earth Observatory has a great article on the topic:
"Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar variability and volcanic aerosols since 1750—omitting observed increases in greenhouse gases—are able to fit the observations of global temperatures only up until about 1950. After that point, the decadal trend in global surface warming cannot be explained without including the contribution of the greenhouse gases added by humans."
Source (emphasis mine).
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There are known solar cycles for example. There are known cycles in the Gulf Stream, there is ENSO, etc., etc...
And if the study finds conclusions that the legislature doesn't like, that simply means that the study didn't focus on the right cycles, or enough cycles, or the right combination of cycles. And the study will just have to keep going until the data suits the "hypothesis."
I am not addressing the details of how to perform such a study. I am merely arguing against the notion that narrowing the scope to only the non-human influences, q, somehow denies the human influences, p. Knowing the percentage of one gives us the other, p = 1.0 - q.
There seems to be politics on both sides. Yes, a crackpot narrowed the scope of the study. However the statements from the scientists seem to go beyond that. The impression they give is that if it had been narrowed for non-crackpot reasons it would still somehow be wrong. It seems that they feel it harmful to their careers to participate in a climate change study that does not support a particular narrative. They fear that not including human influences somehow puts them into the same camp as those who deny human influences in the eyes of politicians and political activists.
Not including is different than denying. Its sad to see science politicized. Lets scientists do science. Narrow, broad, focused, all-inlusive, whatever.
No they should not, because such things do not meet the criteria of a scientific hypothesis.
Horseshit. "Young Earth ideology is false" is a perfectly valid, verifiable null hypothesis, quite suitable for study. People can study it scientifically and have done so. Further, reproducing the results of others is a valuable scientific undertaking.
They are PERIODIC. Not cyclic. A cycle restarts from its original location to repeat the cycle again.
You are playing semantic games. I am pretty sure the average reader understood what was meant.
So what would this "study" bring up? That you can do a fourier transform on a dataset vs time and come up with a lot of sin curve frequencies and amplitude? That's 19thC. We already passed that 120 years ago. You, however, seem to be stuck two centuries ago.
So... you would support more study of the anthropogenic component of climate variability, but not the periodic components? Even though currently, separating the AGW signal from the periodic noise is already so difficult that there is debate about whether it even exists?
Why would that be? And do you somehow think that isn't a political stance?
Technological civilisation rises,
which eventually causes climate change,
which eventually causes technological civilisation to crumble,
which eventually allows the climate to recover,
which eventually allows technological civilisation to rise again,
etc.
There's your cycle. Study that.
And if the study finds conclusions that the legislature doesn't like, that simply means that the study didn't focus on the right cycles, or enough cycles, or the right combination of cycles. And the study will just have to keep going until the data suits the "hypothesis."
Says who? TFA doesn't say that. The article that was TFA's source doesn't say anything that would lead to that conclusion.
I think this whole situation is a gigantic example of "the pot calling the kettle black."
You cannot demonstrate that the entire Universe (let alone the Earth) was not created exactly as is just ten minutes ago. There is not a single piece of evidence that could falsity that hypothesis.
You cannot demonstrate that the entire Universe (let alone the Earth) was not created exactly as is just ten minutes ago. There is not a single piece of evidence that could falsity that hypothesis.
And you say I am the one who has no clue? Really? Apparently you don't understand the difference between evidence and proof.
There is quite a lot of evidence that the Earth was not created 6,000 years (or 10 minutes) ago, which would be accepted by most reasonable people. No proof, to be sure, but there is ample evidence.
Radioactive decay, for instance, is evidence. The fossil record is evidence. Geologic strata are evidence. Plate tectonics is evidence.
Can I prove it wasn't created 10 minutes ago? No. But the idea that some creator put all those things in place just to mess with our heads is rather outrageous, and is not accepted by most reasonable people.
Regardless, your ridiculous conflation of evidence and proof is evidence that you don't know much about evidence.
That couldn't be less true if it tried. A PhD/post-doc spent outputting useless intentionally-crippled research is not the basis of a successful career.
Find one. I hear Nebraska has some money to spend.
Python coder | PyQt Applications | Writer
The majority disagreeing with you |= a conspiracy.
The scientists are free to study what they like (in so far as permitted by their funding). This is a deliberately scuppered study on the effects of climate change on Nebraska. By ignoring the elephant in the room the results become next to useless, even dangerous. Since scientific careers are built on usefulness of research taking this on = ~ 3yr of career down the pan for nothing. "They should study it anyway! Scientific curiosity! Every angle!" Yes, and they should also study whether there are fairies on the moon and whether the solution to this whole climate change thing is copper bracelets or setting fire to icebergs. Nobody has checked that right?! Right!
There are an infinite amount of things to study. Scientists have to use their judgement, based on evidence and experience to determine the validity of a line of investigation.
I guess you'll just buckle down and write that report?
*fudged to fit the analogy. Feel free to replace with "you can spend the next 3 years upgrading our network to block everything (except Chinese hackers). If it doesn't solve the problem you're fired!"
Python coder | PyQt Applications | Writer
That's not the problem, the problem is that they were being tasked with a *wink* independent *wink* study that is definitely not *wink* supposed to benefit climate change deniers *wink*.
And if they did this study and published results that didn't support the ideas of 'cyclical' climate change, would they be fired? Would the study be censored? why shouldn't they consider an alternative view and possibly (probably) disprove it?
Sounds to me like the "scientists" are playing "politics".
If you want news from today, you have to come back tomorrow.
And you say I am the one who has no clue? Really?
Yes. And now you're posting this long stream of bullshit to reinforce and prove it. That's great though. The more people are exposed to your unhinged ranting the faster you'll be recognized as a loon to be ignored or mocked.
Can I prove it wasn't created 10 minutes ago? No.
Exactly. No one can. Therefore it is not a valid hypothesis. A hypothesis must be falsifiable. It doesn't have to be falsifiable by you right now. A condition simply has to exist in which it could be. It is a very simple concept, yet tauntingly out of your grasp.
I was kind of hoping a grade school science class explanation would be simple enough for you.
I wonder how many of those scientists are greenpeace, siera club or WWF
Wait! What does the World Wrestling Federation have to do with climate change?
Have gnu, will travel.
They teach us that good science involves both trying to prove theories as well as trying to disprove them. Both are equally important. Both should be applied to climate change theories. Unfortunately, one of those approaches is not politically acceptable, and that is bad no matter what you believe.
...that their study won't exclude natural climate change?
I mean, this just doesn't make sense from any other perspective - if they believe that they'll be vindicated, they'll do a bunch of studies on cyclical climate change, and find that modern climate excludes all cycles, and therefore must be driven by some "factor X".
What they really should do is this - insist that any study on climate change start off with a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement. At that point it won't matter what political bent the scientists have, it'll simply stand or fall on its merits instead of on the basis of publicity, politics and press releases.
Says who? TFA doesn't say that.
It also doesn't not say that. When asked for clarification what exactly "cyclical" meant in the bill, everyone with any authority avoided touching that question with a ten-foot pole, saying nothing more to the scientists beyond "Look at the floor debate," where the word "cyclical" was added by someone who first wanted to eliminate the study outright.
Nobody is saying anything. Everybody is making a point of not saying anything. And even if Han had knocked out those shield generators Lando would at least be detecting something...
You study whether there are period inputs into global temperature, identify the most prominent, if any, and report what you find be it good, bad, or ugly. Are they seriously saying *every* study that examines inputs besides man-made warming is biased and political? This sounds like a much more slanted perspective than "please take my money to consider other inputs as well."
Corporations are saying, "We're powerful and wealthy enough so we can use governments to our advantage!"
Government is still plenty big and powerful enough so corporate entities can't ignore it. Rather, corporations simply buy some govt. collusion so a preferred status is granted.
That's the "rub" with the whole system. Government is supposed to play the role of the impartial referee in the game of "Capitalism". But instead, the most successful "teams" keep paying them off.
I see from today's stories ... according to slashmind, the biggest problem is the Koch brothers and climate change "deniers".
Meanwhile, the Slashdot savior turned a recession into a depression, created a real surveillance state, and took over the biggest economic sector in the US (literally during an Orwellian "shutdown").
You aren't as smart as you think you are. You are "denying" the reality that is unfolding all around you. Good luck with that. Keep throwing stones at the approved targets; you'll have plenty of time without jobs or anything to distract you.
And now you're posting this long stream of bullshit to reinforce and prove it. That's great though. The more people are exposed to your unhinged ranting the faster you'll be recognized as a loon to be ignored or mocked.
Excuse me? I'm not the one who confused evidence with proof. They are not the same things. You wrote "there is no evidence", which is 100% false.
A hypothesis must be falsifiable. It doesn't have to be falsifiable by you right now. A condition simply has to exist in which it could be.
True, but you are still getting your standards of "proof" confused. Nearly all of the scientific evidence points to the conclusion that the idea of a young earth is false. There is far more evidence for an old Earth than there is for the Higgs Boson or even the Standard Model.
No, that's not absolute "proof". But it's still a scientific "fact", to the extent that science shows us the existence of facts, which is not absolute. You are simply demonstrating your ignorance of science.
Because NOTHING is ever "proven". Things can only be disproven. This is a fundamental feature of the way science works. Instead, we go by the preponderance of the evidence. When the evidence is overwhelming, we accept it as fact, even though it was never "proved". Nobody has been able to PROVE the existence of gravity, for fuck's sake. It just fits our current understanding and the preponderance of the evidence.
It's not like some politicians are trying to force scientists to ignore what they think it relevant information now, isn't it? /sarc
AND, if you dispute my claim that nobody has been able to prove gravity, I'll just turn it around to your own argument and say that what looks like gravity is really just some "creator" fucking with your head.
You can't have it both ways, man. Your "grade school" interpretation is only good for just that... grade school.
Right. And it also didn't NOT say that white is black, or that pink smells itchy. You can attempt to justify any argument whatsoever with a statement like that. Sheesh.
This is inherently a political issue. One faction wanted to study one aspect of "climate change". Another faction changed it to require study of another aspect of climate change. But either way, it's still study of climate change. You don't seem to like the politics of it. Too bad. That's the way Congresses work.
So... for political reasons Nebraska's government wants a study which assesses only that portion of climate change which has resulted / is resulting from non-human factors. They aren't asking for a directed finding. They won't suppress the resulting report. They just insist on knowing what's happening on the climate change front that *isn't* human-caused.
'Cause, you know, the earth endured massive climate change for millions of years before humans evolved. It'd be hubris to think that human activity is solely responsible for current climate change patterns. As politicians consider how to respond, it'd be nice to be able to separate the factors under human control from the factors which are not.
And no climate change scientist will research this. Am I the only one who has a problem with the scientists' behavior here? This is scientists playing politician. Scientists should play scientist instead -- they're far better at it.
Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
Excuse me? I'm not the one who confused evidence with proof. They are not the same things. You wrote "there is no evidence", which is 100% false.
You are fundamentally confused about the topic at hand. I said there is no evidence that could falsify the hypothesis, which is true. There is plenty of evidence that, taken together makes the hypothesis incredibly unlikely, but that's not good enough and that's not the point. You've moved right past the hypothesis into testing. That's not how a hypothesis works. They must always be phrase in a falsifiable manner. We're still working on the first step, don't jumo ahead.
True, but you are still getting your standards of "proof" confused.
Umm, no. Standards of proof are irrelevant to anything I'm saying. I will explain this simply. When a hypothesis is formed, it must be formed in such a way there some circumstance could theoretically come to pass that would demonstrate it as false. "There is no other life in the universe" is a valid hypothesis. Finding other life would falsify it. "There is other life in the universe" is not a falsifiable hypothesis because you could never prove that no life existed anywhere in any form.
I'd bet he as thinking of Al Gore. After all, isn't he the leader of the worldwide conspiracy? {wink}{wink}
Now you're confusing the phenomenon of gravity with the Theory of Gravity. Gravity (the phenomenon) undeniably exists. It can be observed. The Theory of Gravity is based on falsifiable statements that could, some day no matter how incredibly unlikely, be demonstrated incorrect. Saying that "gravity is a creator fucking with us" is not valid because it could never be demonstrated to be incorrect.
What preventing the researchers from focussing on 'cyclic change' and discovering (and publishing that) "clearly that is not what is going on here" (if that is actually, provably the case).
Visit CryptoGnome in his home.
You are fundamentally confused about the topic at hand.
Laughable. "There is no evidence" is a very clear statement. If there was a misunderstanding, it sure as hell wasn't on my end.
I said there is no evidence that could falsify the hypothesis, which is true.
And I explained that your standard of evidence is complete horseshit, which is also true.
There is plenty of evidence that, taken together makes the hypothesis incredibly unlikely, but that's not good enough and that's not the point.
Yes, it is the point. You want PROOF. There is none. Get fucking used to it. Case in point:
Standards of proof are irrelevant to anything I'm saying.
Hahahaha! This is the most hilarious thing you've written yet. In ALL of science, there is a level of evidence that a reasonable person would accept as indicating truth, even though it is not "proof".
When a hypothesis is formed, it must be formed in such a way there some circumstance could theoretically come to pass that would demonstrate it as false.
No shit, Sherlock. And it only takes one counter-example to disprove a hypothesis. However, you are begging the question... you will only accept absolutes as "proof". Therefore you are insisting on a level of "proof" that does not exist in science.
What you are doing here is a particular kind of logical fallacy known as "shifting the goalposts". You originally wrote "there is no evidence", but now you're demanding "proof". I have already explained why this is nonsense but you're blathering on, as though you hadn't made that mistake.
Is this some sort of performance art piece? Like you're making a political statement about how ignorant "Jane Q Public" is in science and critical thinking? If so, bravo.
except that pretty much all the predictions made in the 80s and 90s are coming true...earlier than predicted. There is no 'debate' about man made climate change. it's real and it's happening. Keep screaming though, it helps rational people identify you as crazy.
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
There is not a single piece of evidence that could falsity that hypothesis.
You know what? I concede this argument, because I went back to refer to your original comments, and I had mis-read what you wrote (quoted above). I had it in my head that you had written "There is not a single piece of evidence to that effect."
:(
Mea culpa. Misunderstanding. You are correct that there is nothing that can disprove the hypothesis of a "young earth". I had simply not read your comment correctly, and thought you were claiming something you did not, in fact, claim.
The "president" of the IPCC is the guy that owns the worlds biggest trading company of "carbon credits".
I'd trust a study funded by a carbon credits trading company about as much as I would trust a weight loss company that sells food.
If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
You don't seem to like the politics of it.
A politician who first tried to get the broad study shut down entirely managed to instead add a qualifier where there was none before (i.e. not "this vs. that" but "all vs. some"), hamstringing the project by basing it on a faulty premise (that "cyclical" change merits such a large impact study) and a loaded question (presupposing that there is no other significant source of climate change impacting the state).
You're right, it is politics and I don't like how it's played out. But more importantly it's also a horrible hypothesis.
So, this is really just an example of what we all (should have) learned when taught logic:
False premises lead to whatever conclusion you want.
In order for the statement "If only cyclical changes influence climate, then the effect on the climate of Nebraska will be ________," to even be worth asking, there has to be a good reason to assume that only cyclical changes influence climate, or a good reason not to assume other influences.
A politician who first tried to get the broad study shut down entirely managed to instead add a qualifier where there was none before (i.e. not "this vs. that" but "all vs. some"), hamstringing the project by basing it on a faulty premise (that "cyclical" change merits such a large impact study) and a loaded question (presupposing that there is no other significant source of climate change impacting the state).
You are demonstrating your bias by arguing that one part of the science merits study but another part does not.
Do you realize that the "cyclical" (as one person mentioned, the proper word is probably "periodic") factors in climate science are so strong, and the AGW factors so weak, that it is still a matter of debate whether the latter even exists?
BOTH are valid subjects of study, and by studying one, you are going to shed light on the other. Your choice of which to support is entirely political, not scientific. Because if you understood the science, you would be supporting further study of the periodic factors that influence climate.
Sorry, man, but like others here you're trying to have it both ways. You can't understand the one without the other, and by fighting the study of the one, you are trying to lessen our understanding of the other. It simply won't wash.
Ah, hell. Tonight is my night for mis-reading what other people wrote.
What you stated above is not unreasonable, except for the part about the faulty premise. It is not faulty at all. if we don't understand one, we will never understand the other. It's that simple.
Hmmm, which prediction in the 80s and 90s included record Antarctic ice cover and a stalled temperature for 17 years?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
You have stated your hypothesis. Now go do the work to provide empirical evidence for it.
The headline is a mendacious lie. They were asked to look at cyclical climate change, caused by massive natural drivers including volcanoes, the solar cycle, etc, all well-documented phenomena, to see if recent data could be explained without the anthropogenic fantasy. They refused because such a study would refute all the neo-Malthusian, nonsense, regularly refuted since Malthus first proposed it, and reveal the true believers for the fools and charlatans I think they are. It would also stop the deliberate economic destruction being fomented by the evil cabal of those who hate the US and those who want to live the "small is beautiful" pathetic fallacy. David Sternlight, PhD
It's impossible to scientifically prove them wrong because they presuppose an intelligent being that has started/guided the evolution of life on Earth. The supernatural is outside the purview of science.
Further, reproducing the results of others is a valuable scientific undertaking.
At some point reproducing the results of others becomes a waste of resources on an already well studied area. Besides, building on the results of others (rather than simply repeating them) is a validation of the results (or could cause them to be reexamined if you get unexpected results). That's the way science advances.
Sad day indeed when politics try to dictate scientific truth. My thumps up for scientist that refuses to be puppet and sell the truth.
There's more data available over this thing we call the internet than you could analyze in a lifetime. There are links to some of the major data sets and climate model code on this page. The IPCC lists references to all of the work it uses to make its conclusions. All it takes is a few clicks of the mouse to start looking at the data.
I am sure there are many grad students / post docs willing to take on this research.
Publishing stuff that ignores the elephant in the room wouldn't help their careers.
Those who claim existing studies include significant cyclical components are simply ill informed. One went so far as to challenge"cite even one" or words to that effect. Very well then, a widely respected Midwestern professor attacked the latest IPCC report as ignoring the solar cycle, which he asserted could explain much attributed to anthropogenic climate change. This is doubly odd since in 2007 the IPCC thought the opposite. For a critical discussion of this point see the deservedly sarcastic critique at http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/
falsified ? it looks like the average temperature has raised : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html
and the global sealevel has raised : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level,_1870-2008_(US_EPA).png
(i am posting links to REAL Data here btw)
Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
My hard drive is systematically corrupt, and will always act towards cronism. The word you want actually refers to rule by old ladies, CRONEISM.
Correct Horse Battery Staple: 72 bits of entropy. Enter "Correct H" into google. When it generates the phrase, that's
I don't understand the difficulty. If you have to study creationism as a "'falsifiable alternative", then study it, and falsify it. Oh, so the crackpots won't give you any more grants after producing a result they don't like? So what - you were going to turn down their grant money anyway.
Salon isn't considered a credible source, but I can't figure out why. Usually the fact trail behind their articles is there if you look. Sure there's a lot of lunatic ranting and all; but what part is actually untrue?
There's an article on Salon about "warrior cops", with the SWAT team being used to run all kinds of basic shit. Checking your liquor license? SWAT team raid. One guy got shot hosting a gambling game with friends in his basement, $50 in the pot... it's like a $25 fine in his state, he's had the cops knock on his door like a dozen times and fine him and break up his parties. This time the SWAT team showed up and he got shot and died. The back story was right there in the salon article--he's been told a hell of a lot of times by the police to not do this--but that doesn't really explain why a fucking paramilitary force was sent to his house.
That's what I've come to expect from Salon: politically charged raving with all the 'i's dotted and 't's crossed. I'm still trying to figure out why people don't find Salon to be a high-quality editorial source (it's not really news). Seems on par with WSJ and Chicago Times (?.. I forget if it was CT, I remember Chicago did have a higher-end editorial piece I found very readable like WSJ). Rolling Stone has a few gems but mostly bores me with content.
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We should do k to EUROPE?
Yeah, those big governments in places like Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal have been stellar examples of responsible and capable government. Perhaps you should take your own advice about the news.
Big intrusive government that actually works well in Europe has been the exception not the rule.
The temperature predictions perhaps? The faster glacier movement in Antarctica and everywhere else? The predictions that Glacier National Park would be wildly misnamed in less than a generation?
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
A few years ago, Kansas sued Nebraska, whose 100,000 plus wells left some Kansas towns with zero water, especially near the Republican River (named after a Pawnee subtribe of Indians known as the Republicans). A Nebraska agricultural economist investigated, publishing a research paper that revealed over several years that Nebraska's increasing wells decreased water before it reached Nebraska. With his defense ruined, the Nebraska attorney general denounced the economist to his department head in Lincoln, Nebraska. The attorney general valued loyalty to himself more than honesty to truth, while the economist valued loyalty to honesty.
The temperature predictions would be sufficient. Which prediction made in the 80s and 90s related to a stalled global temperature for the entire 21st century, so far?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Since the language of the law (page 3) requires the task force to plan for "unintended consequences of climate adaptation and mitigation," the study should be completed as requested, and the effect of human activity against the baseline ebb and flow of regional climate should be included on the chart as an "unintended consequence."
this one? By none other than Mr. Hansen who is wonderfully derided by the deniers.
And you know what? It even shows a shallowing of the temperate rise during your so called 'stalled global temp' growth. So yes he predicted something quite similar to what we're seeing.
There may be a short term slowing of temperature rise going on...but you're still flatly ignoring the rapid increase in the previous 30 years, just blindly assuming it won't resume going up. Scientists don't claim to know everything, but decades of consistent pattern followed by a few years of slightly less than predicted results don't change the overall situation.
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
That's different, you're talking about an abstract case.
Can you take a person who has lung cancer and say: "Smoking definitely caused this. There is no way in hell that this was caused by radiation exposure or other some other thing." Of course not. And that's a question that is better understood than the intricacies of climate change.
Besides, let me illustrate why your reasoning is flawed with an analogy - let's assume that smoking is inevitable (cyclical climate change) but radiation isn't (climate change due to human actions).
If you look only at smoking, you'll see that 100% of cancer cases happened after smoking - you've learned nothing, since smoke is inevitable in our scenario. If you stick to this line of investigation, you'll quickly find scientific evidence that smoking does cause cancer.If no other possibilities are allowed, you might conclude that all cases of cancer were caused by smoking. This is nonsense.
However, if you don't ignore the other possibilities, you'll notice that they too can cause cancer.
By focusing on a single possibility that does contribute to the problem, but is not the only cause, you have now reached an implicit false conclusion that cancer is caused by smoking only - the matter is treated as understood. Meanwhile, radiation is still causing cancer.
Back to the matter at hand, if you focus on a single factor that may cause climate change and ignore the others, you'll reach the conclusion is caused by that factor, period. While not strictly untrue, it is incomplete. It's essentially a political trick to get favorable "science" by restricting it to the issues that are convenient for whoever is in charge.
The raw data is just as available as the processed data. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/#Climate_data_raw
Because they have to ignore 'cyclical climate change' to practice 'real' science?
I fail to see how the inclusion of 'cyclical climate change' in the study makes for flawed science - are these scientists 'cyclical climate change' deniers? It sounds like they are afraid that a study including 'cyclical climate change' would disprove heir own hand-selected outcome for their climate study...
Seems to me any reasonable scientist could incorporate almost anything into their study, and all they need to do is either prove or disprove the effect of the required factors (in this case 'cyclical climate change' - if it isn't a factor, prove it isn't, if you're afraid you can't, then YOU are the problem, not the folks requiring the inclusion of 'cyclic climate change').
Ken
This proposed study was not scientific. They would have been nuts to accept it. How can you study one thing in a vacuum? Even worse - how can you make up something, then ask people to study it and only it? That's not science. It's positions like yours which are junk - you've ignored what's actually happened because you like the sound of what you think has happened enough to get upset and righteous.
This article contains actual measured temperatures, and show the pause. Your link shows nice, continuous upward curves. In other words - your refutation is not what you think it is.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
10 million words wasted on a non-story out of Omaha, which BTW is 70 miles from my keyboard.
The purpose of this bill is helping to figure out how to grow corn, and thus sustain the state's economy, in the face of "cyclical" weather events such as this year's drought. It has nothing to do with the left vs right "global warming" nonsense. People are motivated first and foremost by their wallets. Nebraska's wallet is filled by corn sales. The liberals (very few Democrats) in the Unicameral wanted a study about "humans ruining the climate". The conservatives, all the Rebublicans and most of the Democrats, simply want to keep the corn industry healthy. Which is why the word "cyclical" was added, to keep the study on point. This story didn't come out of California folks, where the liberals want to shut down all power plants but still demand their lights stay on. This is Nebraska, filled with conservative farmers. Most Democrats in Nebraska are conservatives, not liberals. This is one of the "fly over" states filled with "bumpkins", remember?
They don't give a rip about climate change. They just want to keep the corn growing. Again, a non-story ginned up by the "man is destroying the earth" religion of the far left environmentalist whackos.
Or perhaps a direct quote:
They only underestimated the observed trend by about 30%
or
easily beating naive predictions of no-change or a linear continuation of trends
Yeah, nothing to see here..at...all.....
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
and, you may not quite grasp this. Upward 'curves' become vertical and that is very very very bad.
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people
In the scheme of things, the human component to GW is hardly worth noting. When you consider the human contribution is .00054%, most science would call that statistically insignificant. The Climate is changing - as it always has. Live with it. If you think you can change that, then you are suffering illusions of grandeur. The Global Warming movement was nothing more than an attempt to create a global currency based on carbon. It failed. Live with it. The era of carbon based fuels will eventually pass. When you look an TIME on the Andex charts, you can see that the age of oil is but a sliver. And CO2 (plant food) is mostly affected by the rise or fall in ocean temperatures. Maurice Strong, George Soros, Agenda 21 --> You're all going nowhere.
You should learn the difference between a trend and noise. Your cherry picked 17 years is noise.
Noise is by definition unpredictable. The trend is predictable. And the trend WAS predicted correctly as being upwards.
Climate is weather over a LONG period of time. 30 years being the usual minimum. 17 years is not a climate trend. It's noise.
You of course will never accept this because your beliefs are political, not scientific.
So, scientists refuse to conduct research that might call into question their own previous findings and presumptions? What if "scientists" refused to conduct any studies or research into weather systems because the research could be used to overturn their own beliefs that the weather is controlled by the gods?
I'm sorry, I just don't agree; it's a complex issue and every angle needs to be explored, if nothing else than to quantify the effect of natural vs. unnatural causes. To refuse to do research because it concentrates only on the natural side of climate change seems, well, unscientific. This shows just how bad it is for society as a whole that science is as politicized as it is; scientists are now refusing to conduct research that goes against the community consensus.
why is that so bad? What happens if they drop all human variables from the models and discover that the change would not be nearly as severe as is now claimed? Wouldn't that bolster the theory that they're so adamant on protecting that they won't even do research that doesn't involve it?
Like, what if a politician said "i don't believe in dark matter. do a study and demonstrate what the universe would be like if there wasn't any dark matter in it". Would scientists simply refuse to even broach the subject? Of course, dark matter is not at all politicized, so they wouldn't be afraid of their names appearing on a study that disputes that, even if the result of it is that dark matter must exist of the universe to behave as it does...
Helps identify people like you as illiterate and innumerate.
There is no 'debate' about man made climate change.
I can clearly see you and your ilk try to shut debate down
Government should be safe, legal, and rare. Decisions should be made by individuals whenever possible and practicable, not representative bodies.
If you limit the scope of government, you maximize the freedom of individuals.
When it's been debated and found true? Sure. Just because you don't like the outcome of the settled argument doesn't mean we have to continue to grant you a forum.
People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people