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The Coming Decline of 'Made In China'
retroworks writes: Adam Minter documents the move of Chinese steel mills to Africa, and speculates that China's years of incredible rates of economic growth may already be over. This one steel mill's move to Africa, by itself, increases Africa's production by two-thirds. "The officials in Hebei Province who oversee the company may have felt they had no choice. First, they undoubtedly faced political pressure to reduce their environmental impact in China: reducing production of steel, cement and glass -- all highly polluting industries, especially in developing countries -- will have a direct impact on Xi Jinping’s pollution goals. (Starting in Hebei will have the added benefit of cleaning up polluted, neighboring Beijing.) Second, Hebei may simply be at a loss as to how to scale back businesses that they recognize have become massively bloated. Officials in China’s construction-related industries clearly have too much capacity and too little demand." It's also possible that these moves will be encouraged by China's transition to clean economy, though that could be a bad thing for pollution in Africa.
And what will all our fine corporate interests do when they run out of wage slaves?
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Poor Africa seems to get the worst of everything, and now more of China's pollution.
"If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
What the fuck are you gonna do in 2015? I don't know, and honestly I really don't give a shit (just asked to be polite). All I know is that you ain't gonna top me!
I'm gonna bang the hottest bitch in the land, an 18-year old formally shy and innocent girl until I taught her a bunch of tricks and now she's a freak, fucking in all sorts of crazy positions, in public, whenever I want, she's there. I know 50% of the people on this site don't have a girlfriend and therefore never get laid, and the other half have a wife and therefore also never get laid, so suck on that, bitches!
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And when I'm not home, I'll be getting back into shape, hitting the gym four times a week and bulking up as well as improving my cardio. Healthy body and big muscles to make the whole neighborhood jealous. All the girls will want me, but that doesn't matter because I've got my arm around the most beautiful girl in the world as I walk down these city streets, secretly in my head laughing at all these stupid fucks working 9-5 jobs and still unable to pay the rent. Or they live rent-free with mommy paying the bills. Muhahahhahahaha!
Oh, also, I get to eat a lot of delicious foods (remember, money doesn't mean shit to me anymore, so I can go to the best restaurants in town and chow down), and because of my working out, all those calories will be turned into raw muscle, so the more I eat, the stronger I get. So that means hitting the all-you-can-eat buffet a few times a week, maybe during my long ass lunch breaks. Long as I want, motherfuckers, I'm still getting paid. Fuck yeah! Damn it feels good to be a gangsta!
But now on to the sad part of this post. With my new job, girl, and plain awesomeness I'm not going to have any time to post on Slashdot. Yes, I, the famous poster know as Anonymous Coward, am leaving Slashdot for good. I know I'm this site's most prolific commenter, but unfortunately my new life will force me to quit posting here and start actually doing something meaningful with my life. So, with all due respect to the wonderful people I've argued with and trolled over the years, I must say goodbye. May you all remember me by this glorious post. Best wishes for 2015.
Sincerely,
AC
Haven't you heard? Manufacturing is coming back to America, bigtime. It's just coming back automated. Relatively few jobs are coming back with the manufacturing.
Hate to sound like a luddite, but what's a person to do for a job? Farming is automated, manufacturing is automated, even service industry jobs are becoming automated (self checkout at grocery stores, robotic stocking, brick and mortar retail dying out in favor of Amazon). Driving/shipping jobs are going to be automated.
And there just isn't much economic demand for lots of engineers and scientists and artists--a few of each can serve the entire planet and thus everyone who labors is trying to "supply" a few jobs with little demand for labor. And we can't all just doctor/nurse and sue each other. I don't see us making money entertaining each other either, there have to be people who can afford and pay for entertainment. Wages are going to crash, then what?
-PM
Second, Hebei may simply be at a loss as to how to scale back businesses that they recognize have become massively bloated.
Simple: do nothing. Laissez faire is the appropriate strategy for something that isn't actually a problem. It's interesting how the instinct to meddle overcomes all residual common sense.
Americans won't stand for "slave wages" in Africa. They would boycott anything "made in Africa" because they'd fear the workers are slaves.
"Population control" makes for great sound bites, but in general governments in first world nations can NEVER promote population control. Why? Because the existing entitlement, social, and wealth-transfer programs depend on tax revenues from the very taxpayers that population control would reduce. Unless you're advocating genocide of existing humans, PC is short for "birth control" which would drop number of tax PAYERS at the low end of the age spectrum while leaving untouched the number of tax CONSUMERS at the high end. No politician will be willing to sacrifice their career for that.
Entitlement / social / wealth-transfer programs are completely dependent upon ever-increasing population. It's baked into the system. You won't get any sort of "population control" until you first unravel the entitlement programs. Can't wait to hear your plans for making THAT happen....
Developed countries don't need to promote population control - it happens by itself. Every developed nation except for the United States (which has large amounts of immigration) has a declining birth rate. And, yes, it is a problem for retirement schemes.
One would hope that industrialization and wealth moves into China's interior, a large third world country in itself.
Nice rant Hannity.
But the first world is not where the high growth rates are.
India Egypt turkey Pakistan ect.
China not so much.
Japan in decline.
So try again.
Americans won't stand for "slave wages" in Africa. They would boycott anything "made in Africa" because they'd fear the workers are slaves.
Hahahahahahahaha... OMG, ROFLMAO, either the sarcasm is dripping off that or you're insanely stupid.
consumerism = 1;
for h in (country)
while (country != this->country && country->government(corrupt()))
poverty() || break "country fail"
while consumerism
produce(rand(good))
poverty() || break "country fail"
do
do
Good people go to bed earlier.
Developed countries don't need to promote population control - it happens by itself
For now, yes. But that's only temporary. After a few generations, any genes that promote big families will get more successful, and experience a higher growth rate.
Americans won't stand for "slave wages" in Africa.
Most Americans are unconcerned about the working conditions of the people who make their products. Even those who express concern are often using it as a cover to push for protectionist policies that hurt the very people they claim to be helping.
They would boycott anything "made in Africa" because they'd fear the workers are slaves.
Most bonded labor (slavery) occurs in agriculture. Manufacturing jobs almost always result in a huge improvement over rural poverty. Such a boycott would be harmful and counterproductive.
Building a factory in most African countries is far too risky. Even if the wages were zero, you can't make a long term profit if the government nationalizes your factory. It's also not worth building anything in places where the government might decide to tax away or otherwise take the profits. Moving production to Africa won't be a trend until honest government prevails in Africa.
No mention that, for lack of a viable alternative to power cargo ships, peak oil = end of globalization?
Correct, except for the part about the US. Not sure why you're misinformed about that. It's been declining for six years now, and is at an all-time low.
Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
Americans won't stand for "slave wages" in Africa.
Most Americans are unconcerned about the working conditions of the people who make their products. Even those who express concern are often using it as a cover to push for protectionist policies that hurt the very people they claim to be helping.
They would boycott anything "made in Africa" because they'd fear the workers are slaves.
Most bonded labor (slavery) occurs in agriculture. Manufacturing jobs almost always result in a huge improvement over rural poverty. Such a boycott would be harmful and counterproductive.
Butbutbut Mike Daisey told me a story about the *saddest* thing that happened to this chinese guy who worked in an iPhone factory once...
could be a bad thing for pollution in Africa.
Nope, that shit will just blow across the atlantic to the USA. We'll be fine in Africa, thanks!
Yeah! Americans won't stand for slave like labor conditions which is why the iPhone bombed in the US market after working conditions at Foxconn were revealed. Yup! The iPhone is completely dead in the US!!!
...
- You are a complete idiot.
Or option B
After a few generations, any genes that promote big families will get more successful, and experience a higher growth rate.
Unless, of course, that doesn't actually happen.
It's not really about genes, it's about education and economics. As women become more educated, they start to take control of their own reproduction, and that inevitably means lower birth rates. And as for economics, in undeveloped countries, a large number of kids is economically advantageous, as they serve as a work force for whatever business the family is engaged in. In developed nations, large numbers of children is typically an economic drain (since you're more likely to work for someone else as an employee), not a financial advantage, so there's pressure to have fewer children.
My mother and father both came from families of five children each. That generation had considerably fewer children themselves - around three on average. Children from those families (my generation) had fewer still, averaging about two. So, within my own extended family, I've seen the exact same trend that we're seeing nationally. As such, anecdotally, I'd have to disagree with your prediction, as I've seen evidence to the contrary across three generations now.
Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
You can dream, but that's how evolution has happened for the past few billions of years, and that's how its going to continue.
Developed countries don't need to promote population control - it happens by itself
For now, yes. But that's only temporary. After a few generations, any genes that promote big families will get more successful, and experience a higher growth rate.
The gene that promotes small families (also known as Greed) is way stronger than any "large family" gene that might emerge. No, we don't want to hear about the Mike Judge documentary on evolution that you watched.
but in general governments in first world nations can NEVER promote population control. Why?
Because it's not a problem with first world nations.
I remember Made in Mexico.
No One cared. Then it changes to Made in china. Everyone bitched.
Now no one cares.
Made is Africa, Everyone bitch, Now!
You can dream, but that's how evolution has happened for the past few billions of years, and that's how its going to continue.
Point to the previous species that has genetic engineering.
It's not really about genes, it's about education and economics
It's about both. And as soon as the environment is stable, the genes will develop to take advantage of it. Some of my friends have zero children. They are helping to keep the average down, but all of that behavior will go extinct in a single generation. I also know some families with 4 or 5 kids. Their population will grow bigger. It's very basic application of exponential functions. I'm surprised so many people have a problem with this.
I've seen evidence to the contrary across three generations now.
That's because the environment kept changing.
The gene that promotes small families (also known as Greed) is way stronger than any "large family" gene that might emerge
You can have both. Have a few children, and abandon them at a church. Somebody will take care of them, while you can pursue your greed.
Point to the previous species that has genetic engineering.
So we'll force people to be genetically engineered ? If you can pull it off, that can work.
Not to mention that the US birth rate has been running near or below the replacement birth rate for decades.
The bigger question is how will the Chinese Government react to the shrinking economy, the loss of jobs and a large idle agitated population.
This phenomena is not unique to human populations - you even see this in bacteria. Once they fill up the perti dish they are growing on, they don't overflow, they stop multiplying and the population reaches an equilibrium.
So we'll force people to be genetically engineered ? If you can pull it off, that can work.
Force people to be healthier? Smarter? Stronger? They'll be standing in line.
What happens to the CCP?
How will they maintain control when the economic party is over?
They already are tenuous in their control of China, regardless of what western media portrays.
I'm sure they are looking over their shoulders constantly and trying to figure out how to keep a Billion people from revolting...
We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
Moving to Africa, to escape the "high wages" of China.
Well... if its really going to be like that then:
The very few jobs will go to the smartest & the most socially-connected people. The rest will either starve or have to move to developing countries where these is a market for human labor.
Except the changes here aren't primarily genetic, and no, evolution has not always preferred big families. Big families are a good way to get over carrying capacity, which can result in everybody dying. In fact, some species are capable of performing abortions if offspring would be a nuisance at this point.
This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
It won't say "Made in Africa," which is a continent and not a country.
It would say "Made in Ghana," or Nigeria, or Mozambique, or Sudan. And most Americans don't even know those countries are African unless a news outlet points it out for them.
So no, I don't think anyone will notice nor care.
They're only seeing "high growth rates" because they're starting from rock bottom, and just now getting to where Western nations were two centuries ago.
When you produced 1 ton of rice last year, and manage to produce 2 tons of rice this year, you have what looks like a "high growth rate", although in absolute terms it's atrocious. Yet when a more advanced nation produces 1.3 billion tons of rice last year, and 1.8 billion tons this year, the growth rate isn't as large, but in absolute terms the additional 500,000,000 tons crush your measy 1 ton of "growth".
Not to mention the health care situation in undeveloped countries. In America, a baby born today has an excellent chance of reaching adulthood. In a developing country, that chance can be greatly reduced. If your baby only has a 1 in 10 chance of reaching adulthood, you need to have 10 kids just to make sure you have one surviving descendant. Improving health care in these countries eliminates the need for huge families.
Unfortunately, this need has become entrenched in religion - like many other things which were good ideas at the time. So it might take awhile for the "don't need huge families" to translate into "don't actually have huge families."
My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
Haven't you heard? Manufacturing is coming back to America, bigtime. It's just coming back automated. Relatively few jobs are coming back with the manufacturing.
Hate to break it to you but manufacturing never left America. Ever. It's a popular meme to claim that the USA doesn't make anything anymore but it is not and never was ever true. The US manufacturing sector, by itself today if it were a country, would be one of the ten largest economies in the world by GDP. The only country with a manufacturing sector of similar size is China and by dollar value they are roughly the same size to within a percentage point or two. And China has only caught up in the last few years despite having 5X the population. China does a lot of the labor intensive manufacturing and the US does a lot of the capital intensive manufacturing. That proportion will change over time as wages change in both the US and China as well as in other places.
You are correct that the relatively proportion of jobs in certain types of manufacturing is going to fall similar to how it did for farming. But this is not a doomsday scenario. It means that labor pool is now available to do something else that previously was not possible. If we all still had to work on a farm then the internet would probably have never come about. If you use people to do what a robot can do, then you are necessarily wasting resources by not utilizing people to their fullest capability.
Hate to sound like a luddite, but what's a person to do for a job?
The exact same question has been asked at the start of every technology advancement and the answer is the same as it has always been. Something different. Probably something you are having a hard time even imagining right now. As an example you're complaining that we shouldn't have accounting software because it took labor and thus jobs out of accounting. Would you seriously argue that computers have eliminated jobs because we need fewer secretaries now? It's an absurd argument because it presumes that the amount of economically valuable work out there is fixed and not growing or growing too slowly.
Farming is automated, manufacturing is automated, even service industry jobs are becoming automated
Umm, there is PLENTY of valuable work that cannot be economically automated. I run a manufacturing company that does assembly work. There is NO automation that can economically replace what we do and none likely within my working lifetime. Not because the technology doesn't exist but because humans are more flexible and economic in plenty of circumstances. Automation is useful but the limits on it are economic rather than technical in most cases. If you need a small quantity of something produced, it is difficult or even impossible to economically automate that in most cases. Same with creative work. Same with complicated work. For automation to replace all people you will have to develop a robot or other automation that is as capable as a person AND less costly. We are no where close to that occurring.
Wages may not be inflated like they've gotten in the US in the last 50 years but that doesn't mean there won't be any work anymore. It just will be different than it was and some places (like the US) may experience a reversion to the mean on wages. I know that uncertainty is scary but the notion that automation is going to eliminate all jobs is just ridiculous.
Africa's that place where all the poor people live, right?
You are assuming that genetics and economic/educated decisions are the same. They are not. Just because a person came from a large family does not mean they will automatically procreate in large numbers. Primal urges are checked quite effectively with birth control, allowing a couple to decide how when and how many when it comes to children. Rather different than the "evolved amoeba" model you proffer.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Easy thing to say when you aren't the guy working 16 hours without a break making over-priced iShinies.
Yet, if you actually ask factory workers in poor countries what they want, one of their biggest desires is for LONGER HOURS. Many of them are rural migrants, often women, separated from their spouses and children. Their focus is on making as much money as possible, in the shortest time, so they can go back to their home village. They are not interested in TVs in the break room, spacious dormitories, or other things that YOU may think are important. Stop projecting your values and priorities onto people that you know nothing about.
Instead of looking at factory workers as unthinking drones, that need first-world do-gooders to decide what is best for them, perhaps you should consider what they have to say, about their own lives:
Do campaigns for “ethical supply chains” help workers?
The voices of China's workers
You're arguments are ridiculous. Give it up.
We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
It would be a start for many people in Africa to draw a wage, any wage, rather than live as subsistence farmers. Yup, I've spent some time in Africa, I've seen how people live there, and the fact that its not at all like the begging adverts you see for charities on TV. The fact that its not a crisis for these people, its a way of life that is near to impossible for most to drag themselves out of. That's what makes it worse than those begging adverts.
If Americans wanted to help the Third World out, they could eliminate their agricultural subsidies. That would lift most of Africa out of poverty in a single year.
This one steel mill's move to Africa, by itself, increases Africa's production by two-thirds.
That's an interesting statistic. Africa produces about 16M tonnes of steel per year; presumably mostly or entirely for local consumption. The single biggest producer might be Arcelor Mittel South Africa, which produces about 6.5M tonnes per year.
According to TFA, this one plant will produce 5M tonnes per year. I'd wager Africa doesn't need much more steel for its own use. So either the Chinese plan to ship all that steel somewhere else, or they plan to flood the African market and drive the local producers out of business.
The Elite China has no soft corner for their own brethren from the interior. They would happily out source and drive the wages down even further if they could get a few more yuans. Exactly like our US corporate titans who would out off shore everything to increase their income, and keep the income off shore to reduce taxes. Neither of them have a shred of kindness to rest of their own countrymen. It is them who are looking for low wages across the globe. They are as shortsighted as the oil men who triggered the Iraq war in 2003 hoping to lock in the Iraq oil for themselves. They may be able to start something, but they may not be able to control it very well.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Easy to say when you are, if the alternatives are starving on the street or working similar hours in a field for lower wages. Just because the jobs suck doesn't mean that they're not better than the available alternatives. The problem is that this used to be a stepping stone to a modern economy and is now just a stage when a country is exploited by companies that can easily move to the next target.
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
Does horizontal gene transfer count? Bacteria have been swapping genes for billions of years, and via viruses, this has and is happening with other kingdoms of life as well.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
tbh though, do we really want to outsource our food production? That's a fairly serious strategic element. Sure, the economic costs of keeping it all local are they, but it might be worth it.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Fully agreed.
/sick to work. Now, in a world in which retirement plans have been "mutualized" among all the society, you do not have to worry about that and actually your best ROI is by having no children (ie. no expense) but receiving the benefits. Thus, the logical consequence of the current state of affairs is an ever declining birth rate.
In an economy-driven world, economy will dictate birth rates.
Further to your point (children being an economic drain vs. a source of income) in the early XXth century, children _were_ your retirement plan. With many children you made sure that one or more of them had the means and the willingness to take care of you once you were too old
In any case, the next big step in birth rate reduction will be regulation. You can already see "think of the children" laws being passed in nanny-state countries where parents can be (and are being) sued and prosecuted for educating and disciplining their children in perfectly reasonable ways.
Thus, with children becoming more and more an economic drain and a legal liability on top of that, you will see birth rates moving further down in developed and top tier developing countries.
So Africa is located near Detroit?
The problem is that this used to be a stepping stone
Factory wages in China are rising by 10-20% per year. That is far faster than wages grew in the west during our industrial revolution. So a factory jobs is not only still a stepping stone to a better life, but more so than ever before. They are going from rural poverty to a middle class life in a single generation.
just a stage when a country is exploited by companies that can easily move to the next target.
Because Mozambique has the same supply chain efficiency and infrastructure as Guangzhou? Sure. Good luck with that.
"Entrenched in religion"? Not so much in the US, really.
According to recent census data, the number of households with four or more children is about two percent. Since eighty-three percent of Americans identify themselves as Christians. Catholics are 22 percent of that Christian group. Another four percent identify as various others, and the rest no religion). If religious people were more prone to having large families, it wouldn't make sense that our birth rate is still so low.
Though some denominations (most notably Catholicism, and not surprisingly, the Amish) have official doctrines opposed to contraception, most of the popular Christian denominations officially support family planning. Many Catholics in the US ignore this anyhow, and there's a lot of official opposition to that teaching.
In other words, in practice, religion is probably not much of a factor.
Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
I expect they don't feel they can ask for more money per hour. They're left with only one option to earn more, which is to labor more.
This is what happens when there are a lot of jobs that don't require a whole lot of skill, or require skills that the employer can teach to nearly anyone, fairly quickly. All workers are replaceable, and there is no benefit to individually trying to make gains because one will just be let go. That's why unions came into being, because if everyone or nearly everyone was involved, then it's a lot harder for the employer to fire that vast a portion of the workforce without putting themselves out of business.
I'm not going to deny that unions have their problems too, but labor strife as business came into direct conflict with organized labor is why we have safer workplaces in the United States and overtime when exceeding forty hours for most physical labor jobs.
China is going through what the United States went through 80-150 years ago, and they're going through what the United States started going through heavily in the late eighties and nineties when outsourcing overseas started becoming commonplace. That's a tough spot.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
If we look at examples of other countries with declining birth rates, we see that governments get a bit nervous when birth rates decline too much, and so you start to see more official support and benefits for having children. So, we may see a reduction to some extent, but after a while, society and/or the economy will start encouraging and supporting larger families in some other ways. As one example, in a negative population growth country, buying a home should be more affordable on average due to decreased demand. So, even if birth rates continue to drop for a while, I think they'll probably eventually bounce back to sustainable levels once those factors offset some of the negative pressure to have larger families.
Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
Correct, except for the part about the US. Not sure why you're misinformed about that.
The GP phrased it a little funny. What was meant is that developed nations have a declining population growth rate, except for the US, where the population growth rate hasn't fallen because of ongoing immigration, despite the decline in birth rates. Sloppy phrasing.
Also, first generation immigrants continue having larger families, which keeps the birth rate up higher than it might otherwise have been. Japan is an example of what a developed nation with essentially no immigration looks like: Average children per woman of 1.4, a long way below the 1.88 of the US.
Does horizontal gene transfer count?
No, though it is as close as it gets in the natural world. Notice that bacteria don't have a problem with overpopulation. They just die-off when there's not enough food available. There's always survivors to carry on and die-offs don't have much effect beyond the local environment. Humans can have die-offs that affect the entire globe and possibly drive humanity and many other species to extinction.
After a few generations, any genes or memes that promote big families will get more successful, and experience a higher growth rate.
FTFY
tbh though, do we really want to outsource our food production?
You have that backwards. The west over produces food, and dumps the surpluses onto third world countries at subsidized prices. This helps urban people, who tend to be better off, but hurts poor rural farmers, who cannot compete with western mechanization, yet have no alternative markets.
Free trade in agriculture will mean that America/Europe can focus on crops that benefit from high levels of mechanization, like corn and soybeans, while poor countries can focus on labor intensive crops like strawberries and mangoes. Everybody wins. This has already happened with agricultural trade between America and Mexico, helping farmers and consumers on both sides of the border. It could happen in Africa as well.
I agree with your statements and understand this line of thought. However, it does nothing to raise living conditions, and its pretty short term thinking.
Having lived in central America and Mexico for sometime, I can tell you I see this line of thinking in action, and guess what happens? Nothing, absolutely nothing changes to improve the living conditions. Generations live as slaves for half a year and live off wages made for the other half. Its a half-assed, pass the buck along way of thinking. It almost guarantees no one will ever amount to anything other then being a "worker drone".
You got everything right but ignored the fact that they ask for longer hours because they are paid peanuts. Since asking for a raise will get them sacked, all that is left for them to do is to enslave themselves to the enthroned employers.
Maybe they are better off working in a factory than in agriculture, but we shouldn't pretend we give them the freedom to decide for themselves what is best for them when we are pretty much holding a knife to their throats.
Here is the catch, they employ a smaller amount of people, much, much smaller than they used to.
This is correct to a point. Manufacturing in the US is largely capital intensive these days. It's not unlike what happened in farming 50-100 years ago. More productive with a smaller percent of the workforce. Used to be you could graduate from high school and go work on an assembly line with no training at all and make a decent wage. This had a lot to do with the US being the only major economy left standing after WWII. As Europe recovered and Japan and Asia came on line, the available global work force supply increased and US wages for labor intensive work got out of whack with prevailing wages elsewhere. US manufacturing wages are experiencing a reversion to the mean because now they have to compete against places like China and India with MUCH lower average wages and bigger populations in need of work. We've had close to a 1/3 of the global workforce sitting on the sidelines until the last 25 years or so.
I have a friend who is a machinist. He can make anything out of metal. He tells me it is hard to find people who have the ability to do what they need at his company. Surprising? Not really.
It's not hard to find people that do such work. I have to do it all the time for my job. They just may not be in the US for the wages his company can pay. Offer a high enough wage and I guarantee you'll find someone but that probably isn't possible. I have the same problem. I can get good people but they are hard to find for what I can pay them while remaining competitive. Skilled labor like the fellow you describe can be expensive and for labor intensive work those jobs have often migrated overseas. Many of those formerly employed in that line of work migrate to other work or retire. New workers train for other things because there are attractive alternatives and perceived competition.
High labor costs = labor intensive work moves where labor is cheap, i.e. frequently not in the US. People like that aren't hard to find not because they don't exist but rather because the wages they demand in the US are economically uncompetitive. I can find guys in China or India or Mexico who are just as skilled (or near as makes no difference) and cost 1/2 to 1/5 the price per hour. Why would companies train people to do that work when they can get it done overseas for far less money?
The problem is that the types of employment, the skill levels required, have vastly outpaced the American education systems ability to generate competent workers to work in those jobs
The american education (meaning schools) system NEVER really trained people for jobs like being a machinist. Virtually all of that training aside from a tiny bit of vocational training has been on-the-job training by companies. And that is fine - most real training for real jobs is on the job training. I've met very few programmers who were ready to go straight out of college in the real world. Same with engineers, nurses or any other profession. The reason we have trouble getting workers in those fields is because of cost and perceived opportunity, and less because of a deficient training system. (not to say the training system couldn't be greatly improved like you point out - it certainly could) Companies tend to outsource labor intensive jobs when they can so they aren't perceived (rightly or wrongly) as secure by incoming or displaced workers. Unfortunately jobs like machinsts also aren't considered glamorous in our culture. We tend to look down our noses at people who work with machines for a living. Sad and wrong but it happens.
I know several families that in previous generations had lots of kids, including my own.
With only one exception, all those families have had 0, 1, or 2 children in their latest generations. That one family has an above-average income, so they can afford that many children.
Actually, growing up in a large family is one of the best incentives not to inflict such discomforts on one's children.
It's not like there's a "big family" gene, any more that there's a "homosexual" gene.
Is there a "heterosexual" gene?
I guarantee it's the African slave labor that the Americans will have a tizzy about, because they actively support the rest while feeling bad that their ancestors once owned black slaves.
Manufacturing and production is going to continue to move to the lowest cost labor market. That's just how the bottom line works. The real trick is finding out how to make boatloads of cash off of that fact.
It doesn't really matter to me as long as it doesn't become a strategic issue.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Excluding immigration, US birth rates are already below replacement rate.
The only reason population in the US is increasing is the illegals....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
Interesting point, in the 1930s the US almost passed through a 30 hour work week law. The House passed it but the Senate voted against it. Or vice versa.
Another ignorant Westerner projecting her own values on a foreign society. Being paid "peanuts" in Western currency is actually quite a lot in Chinese yuan. It's certainly more than they could make back on the farm. Maybe we should actually talk to these people instead of assuming that we can hold opinions on their behalf?
Workers are mobile and they know it. Wages are up across the board in China, and not going down anytime soon. The workers will move across the street to a new factory at the drop of a hat. "We are holding a knife to their throats"? WTF? Are we in Bizarro World? Have you even been to China, or talked to a single worker? Who is "we"?
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
For education and economics, 1000 years is a long time. At current rates of change, a very long time.
For Human genetic evolution, 1000 years is barely long enough to be noticed.
We will have worked out how to live sustainably on this planet, or how to expand to the stars, or all died off before human genetic changes of the kind you are talking about are a population growth issue.
T
Laws are horrible moral guides, moral guides make even worse laws.
they are paid peanuts.
A typical factory wage in Shenzhen is about 2500 Yuan per month. The direct exchange rate for that is about $300, but the PPP is more like $1000, because basics like food, rent and transportation are far less expensive. In a two income household, that is about equivalent to $24k in purchasing power. That is not rich, but certainly is not "peanuts". It is a decent middle class income.
Yes, from THEIR perspective, Chinese factory workers may feel as if they are improving their lot. Does that mean that those Chinese workers are not getting the shaft, even though people who are (or could) do their job in other countries would get paid a lot more? Lets face it, labor is tied to local conditions - are we to say"it's OK for a Chinese factory worker" to work in what we could consider to be inhumane conditions for a pittance (compared to what we would make) just because they feel "good" about it?
What "good" does it do ANYONE to work 14-16 hour days, 7 days per week, whilst leaving one's family behind for the better part of a working year? It really rankles when people start justifying what the wealthy and connected classes in ANY culture can do to justify paying the labor quotient in their businesses as little as possible. It's still, basically "screw the worker; I will get as much out of them as I can, for as little as possible". Instead of justifying this, call it what it is - exploitation of those with less relative power.
Incidentally, why should the yuan be considered less valuable than a dollar? I understand the supply and demand variables of foreign exchange, but isn't it convenient to have a monetary system that - based on currency values - makes one hour's work in one country only worth a fraction of that same hour's work in another country. How very convenient for developed nations,
Incidentally, I'm a tried-and-true capitalist. It's possible to treat workers fairly and make a profit. I see less and less of that these days - all around the world.
Don't worry about your stinking retirements! The very hard working, surprisingly ethical, very attractive, very tolerant Catholic Mexican-American's are picking up the slack at 10 kids per couple, on average, and actually beating immigration numbers. Don't worry, racists! Its a good thing. I can not fucking wait for them to take elective power in the United States and for racism to finally be dead dead dead.
The Admin and the Engineer
> "it's OK for a Chinese factory worker" to work in what we could consider to be inhumane conditions
I work for a multinational, and when I go into one of our JV plants, they're mostly indistinguishable from conditions in our Canadian, US, and Mexican plants. The only real differences are the prevailing wages and social security system which is not typically considered part of the wage, and in China, it's a huge additional cost because it's not just retirement social security but things like housing, etc.
They don't work much overtime, as our production and sales are predictable. Instead there are multiple shifts (more jobs for more people).
Google- and Apple-style transportation is free. Lunch is free (and quite good). Families are together at night and weekends.
While there are property bubbles in some of the famous big cities, one can still temporarily purchase a home in much of China are very low cost compared to say, middle America. Food is cheap. Consumers goods are cheap. Health care is cheap.
Life is good for these people.
--Jim (me)
Also, there are 39 countries with a higher net migration rate than the US.
claptrap, it's not genes, it's education and opportunity.
Cheap storage VM.
Unfortunately that kind of population control also tends to clip from the top reducing the number of children from the most socio-economically productive and promoting the breeding of unthinking idiots who do not care who looks after the spawn they produce, they don't even care whether they get pregnant nor at what their age children manage to achieve the same drunken action (PS alcohol during conception and earliest stages of pregnancy is a very, very bad idea). Oh yeah, 'Planned Parenthood' is the enemy of America, uh huh, the mind truly does boggle some times when it comes to the psuedo Christian right in America.
Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
You're basically assuming that Chinese culture is (or at least "ought to be") the same as that of the West. Most of these workers are migrants. That means they work a lot of hours in a short time period and then go back home afterwards with the intention that they'll have made more working a few months at the factory than they would have made all year in their local farming community.
I recommend watching this:
https://www.ted.com/talks/lesl...
Really you aren't speaking for their best interests. You think you are, but you aren't. If you told all of them what you just said here, they'd probably think you're a self righteous stuck up bourgeois asshole.
I decided to read TFA. (Yes, heresy, I know.)
I wonder how much this will actually benefit Africa as a whole. It looks to benefit just South Africa.
Politics, corruption, human rights, infrastructure. Well, the weather is pretty nice in places, and they do have some water. They could totally turn it around in a few years if they wanted to.
Ever heard of the "fair trade" label? All we have to do is throw them a few pennies above the free market/slave labour price, slap a "fair trade" label on their produce & problem solved.
What country are you talking about? South Africa?
Has to be:
Our president believes that having a shower after sex will prevent him from getting HIV and is unable to read numbers with more than 5 digits (seriously, check youtube).
president+zuma+aids+shower
-AC
You have a curious definition of "middle class" there. $24k, really?
That's why unions came into being...
The problem with China is that they already have a union. They're "communist" after all. So there's a union already, and you're already a member of it and you better do as they say or else. As a matter of fact it's often touted as an advantage by Chinese manufacturers; "As the labour force is already unionised, with no competing unions, there are no risks for labour disputes aso."...
So the road for Chinese workers is longer and harder since they need functioning civil liberties first. Then they can organise proper unions.
Stefan Axelsson
The iPhone in China is priced at about $1000, which is about $250 higher than in the US. At the same time, an average Chinese factory worker earns $1.36 per hour, i.e. about $220 per month, which is about 16 times less than in the US. This may be about double than what they would get at the family farm, and the wadges are rising rapidly, but they still have a long way to go before they can afford the commodities they are producing (notice how I'm not talking about golden cars here, but about stuff people in the "western world" throw away every couple of years). So don't pretend you are some kind of benefactor, because you actually aren't.
And BTW, "we" are all those responsible for this situation, since I'm typing this in a high-end phone, but the least I can do is show some acknowledgment and respect for those that produced it.
Their focus is on making as much money as possible in the shortest time, so they can go back to their home village.
So why not pay them more per hour? They are asking for longer hours because they know that asking for more money per hour is pointless.
fuck you, you neoliberal shill.
Yes because Africa was a shining beacon of wealth and progress prior to the subsidies.
OK, then explain why Germany, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, France and Spain no longer are at replacement birthrate?
Explain why the US is only there because of immigrant populations.
The Chinese one child policy was the result of overpopulation destroying their economy through the agricultural demand on too many children. The resulting reduction of population has helped to feed the economy and the growth of an educated populace. You are just plain wrong and probably misunderstand evolution.
I deliberately didn't include Russia, which is just the saddest example of low replacement rate (less than 2, maybe near 1.5 children per couple now) because the problems are social: abortion is the preferred birth control method and the effect of cheap Vodka on the death rate and health problems with FAS babies and unhealthy parents. It is really bad right now.
Subversion of spatial scale luxury decoration ideas.
I just got a comment from slashdot telling me that you foe'd me. Care to tell me why? I couldn't easily find any discussions we were both present in (prior to this one with my asking you this question).
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.