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Elon Musk Takes a Fatalistic View Toward AI (youtube.com)
Elon Musk sat down with California comedian Joe Rogan on Thursday evening for a 2 1/2-hour podcast [YouTube video] that touched upon everything from flamethrowers and artificial intelligence to the end of the universe. Talking about AI, a subject Musk has long been very vocal about, he said artificial intelligence could turn out to be terrible or it could end up being great, but one thing that is certain is that it will be beyond human's control. From a report: "You kind of have to be optimistic about the future. There's no point in being pessimistic," said the head of Tesla and SpaceX. "I rather be optimistic and wrong, than pessimistic and right. [...] It's not necessarily bad, but it's going to be outside of human control. It's going to be very tempting to use AI as a weapon, said Musk. "It will be used as a weapon. The on ramp to serious AI will be more humans using it against eachother. That will be the danger."
Musk says he has tried to convince people to slow down where AI is concerned and regulate it, but nobody listened. "The way that regulation works is slow. Usually there will be some new technology that will cause damage or death, there will be an outcry, there will be an investigation," said the Tesla CEO. "Years will pass, there will be some insight committee, then rule making and oversight and eventually regulations. This all takes many years. This is the normal course of things." Musk used the example that it took ten years for seatbelts to become required, even though the number of deaths were obvious. He says this time frame doesn't work for AI. "We can't wait ten years to the point where something is dangerous to do something about AI. It will be too late," said Musk.
Musk says he has tried to convince people to slow down where AI is concerned and regulate it, but nobody listened. "The way that regulation works is slow. Usually there will be some new technology that will cause damage or death, there will be an outcry, there will be an investigation," said the Tesla CEO. "Years will pass, there will be some insight committee, then rule making and oversight and eventually regulations. This all takes many years. This is the normal course of things." Musk used the example that it took ten years for seatbelts to become required, even though the number of deaths were obvious. He says this time frame doesn't work for AI. "We can't wait ten years to the point where something is dangerous to do something about AI. It will be too late," said Musk.
Alternative headline: Joker and Joe Rogan sit down for cerebral masturbation.
Quite seriously, don't get me wrong, but wake me when we ever come up with something we call AI that deserves the name. Just because we know what intelligence is doesn't mean we have any idea how to do it.
Everyone knows what a saxophone is. If someone points at a saxophone, you'll be able to say that yes, this is a saxophone. But tasked with drawing one, completely, with all the valves and holes and everything in place, usually it would take someone who actually builds such things to do it right.
Our problem is that nobody has built intelligence yet, so there ain't anyone to ask. Yes, we all know what intelligence is like. We can point to it if we see it. But building one is a completely different beast.
And so far, we failed miserably at it.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
and other notable "influencers", because AI will be too busy fighting the "Grey Goo" predicted by Bill Joy and other notable "Influences"
*** Suerte a todos y Feliz dia!
But he's a billionaire so it's called "eccentric". Sort of like Elizabeth Holmes and her fraud.
Corporatism != Free Market
According to terminator 2, judgement day should have been in 1997 so we're actually way behind schedule...
But he's a billionaire so it's called "eccentric". Sort of like Elizabeth Holmes and her fraud.
And he apparently smoked pot during the interview...
The newswires are all ablaze right now about Musk smoking pot in public(*), noting that the stock is down 5% in pre-market trading, and sure enough the stock is down 16 points today.
I admit that seems pretty stupid on his part.
(*) Which is apparently legal in the time and place where he did it, but still...
I'm not sure everyone shares the "eccentric" view. Tesla stock is down 6% (roughly $20) this morning after the interview aired last night.
If you think that intelligence is based in material objects (no spirits and ghosts etc.) and if you think that evolution is a natural and unstoppable process "built into" any "materialistic", physical universe, than the conclusion can only be: Humans are just one step on the ladder of biological evolution, and very probably the last biological one. The next step will be "artificial" intelligence, evolving itself faster than we ever could, designing its material basis according to its needs (e.g., being a submarine, a space ship, a robot for different worlds out there to survive under conditions no human could ever survive etc.). It would not have to start to learn from the beginning, it would not have to carry its "biossphere" around with itself, it would be able to use any kind of energy source, not just "eatable" stuff etc. Why should modern humans be anything different than any earlier species in the evolution like Homo erectus or Neanderthals?
He also calls people who help rescue children from caves "child rapists" on Twitter. I wouldn't listen to this guy. He is like the Trump of the tech world.
For the record:
* The whole sequence started out with Musk asking, "Is that a joint?" Just like your average hardcore pothead who doesn't know what a joint looks like, right?
* After a reminder that it's legal in California, Musk hesitantly takes it, examines it, then takes a tiny puff, then shakes his head no.
* Comments start filling up the Youtube thread from actual pot smokers complaining:
OZGUN ST-PIERRE: Dudeeee wtf he didn’t inhale
tg300050 he didnt inhale
Samuel Gobrecht +OZGUN ST-PIERRE some people just dont like how it makes them feel
Obviously he doesn't know how to smoke
NO T H O T S NOOOO ****ING WAY
Geo Hurtado Inhale!!!!
* Topic changes back to cars.
* Later, topic changes back to pot. The conversation is, to quote:
OMG, pillory him!
They carry weapons and they know if you've been bad or good. Not everybody's good, but everyone tries.
Can someone please explain to me why artificial intelligence is supposedly somehow any more terrifying than natural intelligence already is when the latter is applied to nefarious ends, and why it should ever be assumed that any general purpose AI would be somehow likely to have an agenda that we would actually consider to be corrupt or wrong?
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
Sometimes things like seatbelts come along and a company installs them in their cars. Some industris will self regulate to keep the government out of it.
That didn't happen in the auto industry. Seatbelts were not standard equipment until they were mandated by the government. Same with airbags.
In an interesting twist, I grew up in the country. My brother got in a horrible car accident in the winter with no seatbelt. You know what. If he were buckled in, he would have probably frozen to death. Instead, he was able to exit the car and walk to a nearby house.
Assuming that story is true it is merely the exception that proves the rule. Seatbelts are proven to save lives and it is a rare accident indeed where not using one would be the safer option. There is a chance you might survive without it but the probabilities overwhelmingly do not favor that outcome. The evidence for this is overwhelming.
As an example, air bags are required by law for the driver and passenger. However, there are no laws for side air bags.
That's true but it became unnecessary because regulation mandating airbags along with other means resulted in competition among manufacturers to make the safest car.
And I'll be frank about something else growing up in snow country. RWD and AWD are not better in the snow.
Well I grew up in "snow country" and still live there and your argument is demonstrably false regarding AWD. AWD and 4WD demonstrably help accelerate a car in poor conditions. It provides no value at constant speed driving or while slowing. All other things being equal, AWD or 4WD will outperform FWD or RWD in the snow. There is a reason rally cars racing always use some form of AWD or 4WD. If it didn't work they wouldn't use it.
Ever car in the ditch is an SUV and all the FWD vehicles merrily travel by.
This is a steaming hot fabrication and probably some wishful thinking on your part.
AWD is great for getting going from a dead stop but once you hit 5 mph, you're better off with FWD because it pulls the car in the direction the vehicle is pointed.
Again a false statement. You clearly have no idea how AWD system work. (top tip - most are primarily FWD most of the time and they only engage the extra wheels when needed - which you cannot do in a FWD car) AWD helps with accelerating the car at any speed when traction is not available to some of the drive wheels. If you really need better traction in the snow however the best investment you can make is a set of snow tires or snow chains.
And there is no fish tialing if those front wheels loose traction. Real wheel loose traction and SMASH.
It is trivial to fishtail a FWD car in the snow though it is easier to do in most RWD cars. The primary reason FWD cars tend to do ok with inexperienced drivers in the snow is because the weight of the engine is over top the wheels and the cars are designed to understeer. But a good set of snow tires will make a RWD car outperform a FWD car lacking them in most cases.
I can't believe you are still defending your hero. He called a guy a "child rapist" and has completely gone off the rails. You are like the Trump spokespeople. Good thing I shorted this stock, right?
LOL, after all this time you've been insisting you didn't short the stock, now you're saying you did?
Did you cover? I bought this morning at 256,11. Up nearly 5% as of now.
They carry weapons and they know if you've been bad or good. Not everybody's good, but everyone tries.
I'm being sarcastic. That is the problem with you: you believe everything you read on the Internet. I am not shorting any stock and am not long or short Tesla. The only reason I am even interested in the topic is I don't understand the hero worship of Musk. But you nutjobs keep defending his indefensible behavior (calling a guy a "child rapist" on Twitter. Really????). You are like a Trump supporter.
Meanwhile, back in reality, Tesla is on a roll. They now make over half the world's EV battery capacity. Model 3 margins were positive in Q2 even without AWD and P, which are high-margin options. And despite the hype about "6000 per week", Tesla's actual production goal for this quarter is 50-55k, which is 4k per week average, which they're well on track for.
But on the other hand, the CEO took a half-arsed puff on a joint when offered, shook his head no, and talked about how he doesn't like pot because it hinders productivity. So I guess there's a balance, right?
They carry weapons and they know if you've been bad or good. Not everybody's good, but everyone tries.
The new CFO suddenly leaving was the real news. His statement as to why he was leaving was your typical not-wanting-to-burn-bridges-but-I-need-to-get-the-fuck-out-of-here public statement.
I've seen the financials, and just what's been released publicly would scare the shit out of me if I were the CFO. I can only imagine what the internal books look like.
*Yes, companies BS the SEC ALL the time. They don't have the resources to investigate the tens of thousands of public companies.
**Auditor statements are great fertilizer.
If you really want a better picture of who Elon is, you might start with the article Wired magazine did on him in their U.K. edition recently. They interviewed a number of people who knew him in the past and worked around him. From that. it's clear to me the guy was/is a total workaholic who views sleep as the enemy. With regard to SpaceX, a rocket scientist they interviewed said when he first met Elon, the guy came off as very intelligent and interested in doing something with rockets, but had no real concrete knowledge of the science or engineering that goes into building one. Several years later (maybe 5 or 7?), he caught up with Elon again and by then, Elon had mastered all sorts of relevant knowledge and could legitimately be called an expert in that field.
When he decides he wants to pursue an interest, he goes all out to make it happen.
People like this tend to eventually crack under the pressure, giving themselves health problems and whatnot. It's not a lifestyle I recommend to anyone, but I think certain personality types can't help but live this way. For them, there's no other option that makes them feel accomplished.
That whole thing about him calling the diver a child rapist was blown a bit out of proportion, vs the Elon Musk we see interacting with people every day. As I read things, it was probably typed in an angry outburst because that diver was a harsh critic of Elon's attempt and money spent to devise a possible solution to rescue the trapped kids with the submarine tube he engineered. (If you cared enough about an emergency situation to pull a bunch of your people off of projects they were doing for your company, and dumped millions of dollars into trying to offer a possible solution -- wouldn't YOU be pissed off that some guy trashed your efforts as foolish, basically calling you a clueless idiot for meddling in something he knew nothing about?) And from some of the photos, that diver DID have a creepy look to him.
Bears repeating.
They carry weapons and they know if you've been bad or good. Not everybody's good, but everyone tries.
No, you're lying.
Hopefully some day you'll learn the difference.
They carry weapons and they know if you've been bad or good. Not everybody's good, but everyone tries.
Then why was he so vapid and high for the rest of the time? Is that how he normally is? I've never listened to the clown at any length, but I did see a bit of the shitshow yesterday after people were laughing about it. The dude was high out of his mind or just out of his mind.
Right. I am lying. I am totally shorting Tesla. I have made millions off of it recently and am posting this from my mansion in Saudia Arabia. And I did it all by posting in free forums on the Internet. You found me out! What I don't understand about people like you: why WOULD you buy more stock at 256? Do you really think it is worth the risk? It just seems psychotic to me.
... if the AI will be a pedo? Musk is skilled in detecting those things I hear.
And the only thing the Independent deemed newsworthy was Elon Musk taking a single hit from a joint proffered by Rogan.
Elon Musk smokes cannabis during interview with Joe Rogan, before imagining what it's like to be a horse
Who is this Al guy?
I listened to the interview and I gotta say, I've seen many people exhibit the same behavior/characteristics after having a severe lack of sleep. I work in an industry where sometimes people will only get an hour or two of sleep a day, for a few days straight. It is very bizarre listening to someone who is normally super intelligent and eloquent jump on a conference call and ramble incoherently. Most of us recognize it immediately (since it's happened to us) and jump in to continue the conversation but the person isn't even aware they're not making sense.
Speak to them afterwards and they feel they were completely lucid in their opinion but you still tell them, "No guy, you were mixing up your words and kept drifting topic to topic"
He's already admitted he's working long hours. It'd be nice if he got a break from the very people who probably identify with working crappy conditions and long hours.
When you see a person say that they have been calling for regulation, but then create a company that takes advantage of a lack of same regulation, the bullshit meter should be going off.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
Which is precisely why I lol'd when I read Musk claim he has been calling for regulation.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
You're a total asshole.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
There's one known, indisputable method to create intelligence. But if you don't have infinite resources, it's probably infeasible. Really simple, though. Just gotta play a slightly expanded version of Conway's Game of Life in every possible configuration. Helps if you can do it in omni-parallel with some savvy compression algorithms.
I retract that.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
Read "Armada" by Ernest Cline.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Irony? Yea, it's like goldy and bronzy, only it's made of iron!
Oh my mistake. He did it in email, not twitter. He did post on Twitter a question of "why hasn't he sued me yet"? That is essentially doubling down on his pedophile remarks. Why kind of psychopath says something, APOLOGIZES FOR IT, then says it again??? "Off the record" is meaningless. If you say it, it is on the record. Or don't say it at all.
And also, the reason he left wasn't "illegal shit", but because Tesla didn't like his privatization ideas and ignored him (he was hired to help with the privatization)
He should have listened to at least one earnings call before accepting the job. Namely, he appears to have misunderstood going private as a means for fundraising. Tesla has repeatedly (endlessly) said - to the endless disbelief of shorts - that it has no interest in fundraising with dilution, and that it only plans to fund further capital expenses through profit and debt. So when there's things like:
No duh he was ignored. Privatization wasn't a means, it was the goal. In order to eliminate shorts, and thus the financial incentive to FUD the stock, as well as the need to focus on quarterly earnings rushes and instead stay focused on long-term strategy.
They carry weapons and they know if you've been bad or good. Not everybody's good, but everyone tries.
I watched the whole interview, I enjoyed it. I admit I don't really know anything about Musk, he didn't really come off to me as "weird", I just thought he was either eccentric or maybe just parsing his words knowing that it could affect his stocks. I thought the "pot smoking" could be a dumb choice for Elon considering how volatile the stock market can be, but he's an adult and can do whatever he wants. I have seen many Joe Rogan podcasts and usually find them to be very entertaining, Joe is always talking about weed though. For me it's kinda like a vegetarian - yeah that's super for you but I don't need to hear about it every 3 seconds.
You must gather your party before venturing forth.
Think about it: why would you, if you were running a company, give a crap about "shorts"? Does Apple care or Amazon care about "shorts"? No, they don't. They don't affect your business IN ANY WAY. The only companies that cared about "shorts" are companies like Enron. And now we know why they were so concerned. THey don't like people asking hard questions.
Do they make a profit yet? Still paying people $17,000 per car to take them?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
QUIET! Next thing you know, Rei will jump on our Dogecoin explosion we're organizing...
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Tesla is on a roll, yeah... Just like China was "on a roll" during the Great Leap Forward. It is rolling alright, straight down the hill and into bankruptcy.
Just like with the older, more expensive models, Tesla shills keep the narrative that Tesla is "demand constrained".
At the same time, we know that production number, after that famous last week in June, is down at around 4k cars a week for "model 3", RAMP-UP or no RAMP-UP. Despite this stubborn fact that production has stalled at this low number, the wait times are, reportedly, decreasing. Not only that, we know that the "buffer" parking lots Tesla has are overflowing with unwanted, dead cars. We know there is almost invisible shipping activity where one would be expecting it to roll 24x7 non-stop due to "PENT-UP DEMAND". We know that service centers are full of newly bought cars waiting for service for manufacturing defects. We know Tesla suppliers are either failing because of unpaid bills, or taking measures to get what they are due in court.
These things together point at only one thing. Tesla will hit large losses again in the next few quarters, that much is obvious, even excluding the write-offs and the warranty service charges.
Given the multitude of complaints about handling the deliveries, one can also expect Tesla's administrative costs will also be up, and, very likely, and as is typical for the company, the increase will be larger than the increase in sales numbers.
Thus, everything included, Tesla will hit the same "record losses" it hits every time.
These expectations are obvious in the way smart money values Tesla bonds. Tesla stock is, despite the 100 dollar fall, not really representative of the desperate situation, because there funds can still control the price while feeding the believers. Once there is enough stock out of control, though, it will fall to almost zero, and stay there until the bankruptcy, when the bond payments hit in January.
There are only three things that are amazing in this sad saga. The reckless irresponsibility of the board of directors, the passive attitude of the authorities on this scam, and the idiocy of the stock holders.