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Global Warming Could Exceed 1.5C Within Five Years, Report Says (theguardian.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: Global warming could temporarily hit 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time between now and 2023, according to a long-term forecast by the Met Office. Meteorologists said there was a 10% chance of a year in which the average temperature rise exceeds 1.5C, which is the lowest of the two Paris agreement targets set for the end of the century. Until now, the hottest year on record was 2016, when the planet warmed 1.11C above pre-industrial levels, but the long-term trend is upward. In the five-year forecast released on Wednesday, the Met Office highlights the first possibility of a natural El Niño combining with global warming to exceed the 1.5C mark. Climatologists stressed this did not mean the world had broken the Paris agreement 80 years ahead of schedule because international temperature targets are based on 30-year averages. Although it would be an outlier, scientists said the first appearance in their long-term forecasts of such a "temporary excursion" was worrying, particularly for regions that are usually hard hit by extreme weather related to El Nino. This includes western Australia, South America, south and west Africa, and the Indian monsoon belt.

319 comments

  1. What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If it doesn't hit 1.5C in 5 years, can I criticize the prediction. Well no. They did day "maybe." No matter what happens, they get to claim victory. Nothing presented is falsifiable. No matter what you think of global warming, that ain't science.

    1. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Best part is, if you're right, you're still an idiot.

      It's like successfully transporting an infant on the top of a car.

    2. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      You should Google âoestatisticsâ. Itâ(TM)s this science that helps understand probabilities, and the way trends can be reflected by a change in the distributions of outcomes. Really helps to understand topics like this.

    3. Re:What if... by alvinrod · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The real test of any indication of confidence is an actual wager. If they're 10% certain, they should be willing to take bets that offer 9:1 odds or better. Similarly, you should be willing to make that same wager on the other side since you're at least 90% certain that they are wrong. If either of you won't make that wager, then you're not actually as confident as you claim.

      It's the old saying, "Put your money where your mouth is."

    4. Re:What if... by rtb61 · · Score: 2

      It is all down to the great planetary fart. How hundreds of thousands of years of methane hydrates are released and that is down to weather extremes not so much climate. The new weather extremes capable with a warmer climate and that could occur at any time, this upcoming summer, could see a heat peak that would result in the result of a massive amount of methane, methane that has been trapped for hundreds of thousands of years, really quite problematic. Will it occur this summer, well it depends upon weather extremes and not just this planet but also the sun. It looks very likely to occur in the near future, which year in particular, well, insufficient detail but don't worry your empty little head about it. No one is going to do nothing to prevent it and the way things stand now, it will occur and it is very unlikely to not occur within the next decade and is likely to occur any year from here on it.

      Temperatures will also increase the most where it hurts the most, large deposits of land bound ice. No point arguing now, nothing will be done to stop it, nothing will be done to mitigate the impact, nothing will be done except to hide it or lie about it and it will happen, too late to stop it now and the angry mob will be furious afterwards and they will want to hang the climate change denialists, good luck with that.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    5. Re:What if... by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Methane hydrate releases are not because of a single "hot summer". The risk is if the warming continues over a period of 100 years or more the release would be significant. If it was as you described we would all be dead already because there are plenty of "hot summers".

    6. Re:What if... by Ichijo · · Score: 0

      Climate deniers have never been willing to bet against global warming. I wish they would, then I could retire early. It would also be fun to watch them start cutting their own emissions just so they don't lose the bet!

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    7. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Climate deniers

      Except almost nobody denies that the climate changes and is changing. They deny that polar bears are literally in the tropics now and that changing to CFL bulbs will SAVE US ALL from Al Gore's oceanfront property being washed away two decades ago.

    8. Re: What if... by astrofurter · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I must reluctantly admire the faith of a climate fundamentalist who puts his money where his mouth is. May I ask, how have you made a real money bet on climate change?

      Perhaps you bought shares in an engineering company that specializes in building dikes? Or maybe you invested your retirement funds in an inverse ETF that aggressively shorts fossil fuels? Enquiring minds want to know!

    9. Re:What if... by quantaman · · Score: 1

      If it doesn't hit 1.5C in 5 years, can I criticize the prediction. Well no. They did day "maybe." No matter what happens, they get to claim victory. Nothing presented is falsifiable. No matter what you think of global warming, that ain't science.

      No it's not science.

      It's a prediction based on science.

      Assume the theory was that a coin was weighted to land 60% heads. So you flip it 10 times and get 7 heads. Does that prove or disprove the theory? What if you only get 4 heads?

      Now if you flip enough then yes, you do get to do real data. But 10 flips? That's meaningless. If you want to prove or disprove that the coin is biased you don't look at the 10 flips. You look at the person who claimed it averages 60% heads and evaluate the evidence they present.

      Hitting or not hitting 1.5C in 5 years doesn't really show anything wrt global warming, it's the stuff that makes those scientists think 1.5C is probably coming in 5 years that you need to contend with.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    10. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      I deny AGW because there is zero evidence.

      I do not deny there is a climate.

      I do not deny the climate changes.

      Your ad hominem straw man is fail.

      But I am sure that passes for intelligent discourse in your Marxist echo chamber at school in your polisci class taught by an unreformed old school Marxist who never had to work a real job for a single day in his life.

    11. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Meh.

      Assume the theory was that a coin was weighted to land 60% heads. So you flip it 10 times and get 7 heads. Does that prove or disprove the theory? What if you only get 4 heads?

      Disproves the data, obviously. There was a measurement error and the back data needs to be adjusted.

      With global temperature records, that has happened six major times and countless minor times. Of those six, they all were adjusted toward the theoretical model's predictions. Is a 1 in 64 chance sufficient to disprove the model or to disprove the ability to collect reliable evidence?

    12. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is a prediction but not based on science. Science is falsifiable. AGW is not falsifiable. Therefore AGW is not science.

      AGW is politics. There is no science to AGW.

      This is different than climate science which would exist if the so called scientists practicing this voodoo actually practiced science. Unfortunate they do not. They practice politics and the game of getting their next grant. If there is any science going on in the climate faux-science world I have yet to see it and I have looked very hard for it until I realized the leaders of this political movement are liars, have been caught lying numerous times and due to their control of the science journals and the careers of younger and other less politicllly powerful scientists have suppressed and controlled all efforts within the real scienctific community to examine climate scientifically. This would mean following the scientific method. Unfortu7the leaders of this political movement have a vested interest in not doing so and have yet to conduct any real climate science or allow others to do so.

      Hansen and Mann, looking at you.

    13. Re:What if... by h33t+l4x0r · · Score: 2

      I can think of a certain stable genius who thinks it's all a hoax.

    14. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, /tard logic.

      Look, you total PoS, go back 7 years, one in those 7 will have been the hottest on record for up to then. Then do so for the previous 7, same thing. You can repeat the cycle several times over.

      Coldest years on record, not so much. We’re warming, get over it you denialist fucktard.

    15. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Living in Canada, we've got more polar bears then ever before. The numbers are large enough that they're pushing into brown and black bear territories. Oh, and CFL's? You mean those same CFL's that burn out in half the time of a incandescent, but require more raw materials to make. So ... great ... for the environment.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    16. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You may criticize the prediction under one scenario: If the temperature change is = 0C. Then there is no global warming.

    17. Re: What if... by reanjr · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Anyone buying waterfront property is betting against most common models of climate change.

    18. Re:What if... by q_e_t · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What the hell brand of CFL ae you using that fail so quickly? I have literally had one a CFL fail and I was 100% CFL for a decade. Anyway, why would you buy CFLs now as opposed to LEDs? I now have 75% LEDs apart from a couple of small lamps that are rarely on (halogen), on a dimmer circuit that isn't the right type for dimmable LEDs (using halogens) and in the sheds which are using three of the same CFLs I used to have in the house. I have a stock of old CFLs should I ever need to replace one.

    19. Re: What if... by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Record lows in the USA, perhaps. It's very mild in Europe, record highs in Australia. And the record lows in the USA are due to disturbances in the polar vortex which are a predicted consequence of global warming.

    20. Re: What if... by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Of course AGW is falsifiable. For example Hansen in 1988 made projections of what would happen over the next 30 years given various CO2 emissions scenarios, and the climate has changed as projected. That looks like science to me. If you think it's a political movement then the climate scientists I know seem not to have got that memo.

    21. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I will have my victory over you. Your propaganda ensures your doom too. 4-6C by 2100 baby. You thought you had a side. tsk.

      So does my heavy use of air travel, suckers.

      One world. No laws. Externalize the costs. Profit.
      Disaster.

      The Devil

    22. Re:What if... by rastos1 · · Score: 1

      So, please, tell us: what is your prediction? We are eager to find out if your prediction proves to be more accurate.

    23. Re: What if... by vyvepe · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Statistics is not a science. It is not even math.

      Statistics definitely is a branch of math. You are ridiculous. You made me respond even when I do not care much about climate change. But both sides sometimes can spit such a bullshit when talking about it. One side ignores models completely because they are sometimes wrong. The other side misleads about how expensive renewables are.

    24. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      For example Hansen in 1988 made projections of what would happen over the next 30 years given various CO2 emissions scenarios, and the climate has changed as projected.

      List them. All of them. Be specific.

      People remember the few winners and ignore the many, many predictions which are disproven.

    25. Re: What if... by serviscope_minor · · Score: 0

      It's kind of ironic using religious terminology to attack people who think global warming is a thing. Liberally the only reason anyone disbelieves it is because for various reasons, global warming goes against their worldview.

      The absorption and emission spectra of CO2 were measured in the nineteenth century and that was when the greenhouse effect was discovered. The physics of that is absolutely crystal clear and very well settled in this regard. If you really cared you could but a spectrometer and look for yourself, or even make one. Butt you won't because you'd not interested in the science, and you're not a skeptic.

      You could then move your disbelief I to the moor recent work which deals with the much more complex feedback systems of the earth to make actuate predictions. The fact that predictions have been successful won't alter your opinion of them nor does your lack of knowledge of how the models work.

      You also likely believe that following the consensus doesn't make you smart. That's true, but you've forgetting that contrarianism doesn't make your smart either.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    26. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Comparing a claim which is called scientific but cant be disproved against an actual prediction which can.

      Clearly shows you do not believe the "science" either, but have an emotional or political incentive to be seen as believing.

    27. Re:What if... by someoneOtherThanMe · · Score: 1

      Bets don't work like that on an individual scale, because the value of money is highly non-linear. Let's take a coin toss; if I lose, I lose my house, but if I win, i get THREE more houses worth the same money as mine. Although this bet is, statistically, quite heavily in my favour, I would never take it because I really really need the one house I've got, but for more of them (or the money I could sell them for) I don't care quite as much.

    28. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Global warming predicts everything. Lower lows, higher highs, higher lows, lower highs and abnormally normal normals.

    29. Re:What if... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Yes, it is not science.
      Because it is only a single prediction.

      Perhaps if you had read the linked article, you had realized: it is news!

      What is wrong with posting news based on scientific predictions?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    30. Re:What if... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Obviously.

      Their natural summer habitate does not exist anymore, so they migrate.

      So ... great ... for the environment.
      So you don't dispose your light bulbs properly but blame the material for environmental hazards?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    31. Re: What if... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      That is not really true.
      If warming can be limited to about 2C or 3C even, there won't be much sea level rise.

      Sea level rise is a danger if we fail to limit AGW ... because then Greenland or Antarctica might contribute several meters to sea level rises, depending on how warm it gets and how long the warms lasts.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    32. Re:What if... by vague+disclaimer · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In *your part* of Canada. They are moving, because their habitat is being destroyed. By climate change.

    33. Re:What if... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 3, Insightful

      He talks about a "hots summer" that melts perma frost in siberia in a 10km or 100km wide stripe.

      And yes, that could have a catastrophic effect.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    34. Re: What if... by vague+disclaimer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You are called a denier because your reasoning is identical to that of other types of denier. And whining about ad hominem and then banging in about "Marxist echo chamber at school" is pure absence of self-awareness.

    35. Re: What if... by vague+disclaimer · · Score: 2

      Global warming predicts a less stable climate with more severe extremes, so yeah...you point?

    36. Re: What if... by vague+disclaimer · · Score: 1

      Logic does not work how you think it works.

    37. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Literally the only reason anyone disbelieves it is because for various reasons, global warming goes against their worldview.

      The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men (and women) to do nothing.

      -Edmund Burke

      That's pretty much the whole thing. A lot of people who hold their gold stars up showing how good they are are in fact quite willing to blatantly ignore almost any fact when it contradicts with their team's goals.

      Hell, I'm guilty of this behaviour. I've tried to convince people that global warming is real and such at work, but lately I just don't see the point. Even if you exhaust yourself getting agreement on a few points its near impossible to get anyone to vote differently. Plus it just makes working with other people harder that sometimes you literally don't want to know what people think on issues.

      I don't have any answers, and I worry about apathy. I, myself, will vote for candidates that care, and I'll do what I can to make the house addition I'm building more efficient, but even there, I can't afford to spend money that won't ever be returned, though I can still spend my own time, to an extent at least.

    38. Re: What if... by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      In my area, those landowners refuse to accept managed retreat and are betting that others will cover their losses. They're probably right, unfortunately.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    39. Re:What if... by DamnOregonian · · Score: 2

      The Polar Bears are moving south.
      Weird.
      It must because their population is exploding. Only explanation.

    40. Re:What if... by AmiMoJo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You could have at least read as far as the second sentence in the summary. They said there is a 10% chance of one year being over the 1.5C line.

      And if you dig only slightly further, you can see that their model provides probabilities for a number of scenarios. That's how climate modelling works, and why denier claims that "all models are wrong" are simply nonsense.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    41. Re:What if... by h33t+l4x0r · · Score: 1

      "Polar Bear Population on the Rise" according to new study by the University of Bad Math, Ontario.

    42. Re: What if... by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      I'm waiting for a climate change hedge fund like this one to become available in my area.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    43. Re: What if... by sg_oneill · · Score: 1

      Aaaand the anti-science AC gets the "insightful" nod yet again.....

      Yes. It might be wrong That's how science works. Predictions are made, probabilities are assigned, then we see if it planned out. If it doesn't , the assumptions are examined to find where the fault was, assuming there was a fault, and it wasn't simply statistics being statistics. Then newer predictions are made , taking into account the revised data points.

      Keep in mind climate models have generally been pretty accurate with a slight tendency to underestimate warming. Where they go wrong it's tended to be worse than predicted.

      --
      Excuse the Unicode crap in my posts. That's an apostrophe, and slashdot is busted.
    44. Re: What if... by sg_oneill · · Score: 1

      "The real test of any indication of confidence is an actual wager"

      This is not how science works. It's not a competition.

      --
      Excuse the Unicode crap in my posts. That's an apostrophe, and slashdot is busted.
    45. Re: What if... by sg_oneill · · Score: 1

      Right. But our knowledge of the outcomes involves melt offs over 100s to thousands of years. This rapid meltdown were seeing hints of unprecedented We have no historical record to measure it against. It's new and very very worrying territory. The Permian extinction involved a 4c rise over a thousand or so years leading to a meltdown that then kicked it up another 10c.we could hit 4c within half a century if the most pesistic model settings pan out

      --
      Excuse the Unicode crap in my posts. That's an apostrophe, and slashdot is busted.
    46. Re:What if... by rtb61 · · Score: 2

      I am trying to figure out how your brain works, once it is warm enough the methane hydrates break down, all at once, not in slow motion. It just needs to get warm enough once and it is done, how much is how warm, not how long, taking into account the idea of hours, sure but not years. One really hot summer is all it will take. Look each and every year it gets warm enough to melt winter deposits of methane, what is happening is it is getting warmer than it has been for hundreds of thousands of years, methane that has previously melted, well melted, we are talking stuff that has been deposited over hundreds of thousands of years that never melted because it never got warm enough, now it will get warm enough. We are talking a methane that is deeper into water or further north or deeper underground, it called permafrost for a reason but that reason is disappearing, just like the permafrost and not only will the frozen methane stored for hundreds of thousands of years come out but those little bugs and critters that break down matter and generate methane, will be a whole lot warmer and a whole lot more active, woo hoo, even more methane.

      There is a great documentary talking with people living in the permafrost region, how the weather is like it has never been before, how the region is changing, first they were happy, warmer but then things started to really go wrong, such is life. I could link it but it would be waste of time, clearly you are not interested. PS smart is dumb for the dumb, just the way it is, it's called a lack of understanding and holding to empty beliefs.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    47. Re:What if... by ishmaelflood · · Score: 1

      I've got two houses. I'll take the bet.

    48. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      10% chance of a year in which the average temperature rise exceeds 1.5C

      If that one year will materialize so early, they can make observations and test models against it. It would mean a lot more than 1.5 degrees here near the Arctic over the average temperatures during that particular year if the temporary rise is analogous to the longer term phenomena.

    49. Re: What if... by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      You seem to fail to grasp how the warming will occur across the planet. It wont get much warmer at the equator, the same amount of sunlight more heat trapped. It is the amount of heat trapped overnight that counts and where the wind takes that warm air. Trapped heat will tend to warm those spots the most that get the least sunlight, so the further north the worse the impact. Sea level change is also not uniform not in the least. The closer to the equator the higher sea level rise, the higher the tides in your region, the higher sea level rise at high tide will be in that region, think of it as percentages. So higher seas, mean not just higher tides relative to previous tides but higher again by the percentage of how much seawater was trapped (trapped by a land mass, as the sun and or moon pulling on that water, raising it higher again by the percentage increase of the trapped water at that location).

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    50. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't recommend using CFL's anymore but they last a heck of a lot longer than incandescent. I advise people to use LED bulbs with a CRI of 90+.

    51. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Anyone buying waterfront property is betting against most common models of climate change.

      I used to live in Japan, there was a big earthquake and people were surprised as "that's considered a safe area".
      Local mate of mine pointed out the best place to check is insurance which had id'ed the place as "not so safe".

      So, the corollary is check insurance against water inundation events in coastal areas.
      And keep in mind water table push-up in areas back of the beach, lots will not just wash in the front.

            - R

    52. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They're moving south because the ice they used to live on is melting, and they can't walk on water... so they move to land. With is south.

    53. Re:What if... by DethLok · · Score: 1

      I'm mainly annoyed because of this sentence, admittedly in the summary; "This includes western Australia".

      Because it's Western Australia, capitalised, because it's a state, like New South Wales or Queensland (simmer down, homophobes, simmer down...)

      And regarding the methane hydrates?

      My understanding is that once they reach a critical temperature, to which they are getting closer over time, they turn from solid to liquid and gas as the hydrate decomposes and releases gaseous methane by the megatonne.

      This is generally considered to be a very bad thing.

    54. Re: What if... by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

      I deny AGW because there is zero evidence.

      There is boatloads of evidence.

      --
      Wanna buy a shirt?
      https://www.redbubble.com/people/stealthfinger/shop?asc=u
    55. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      +10C change in prehistoric times are correllated with 99% mortality rate and exinction event lasting thousands/million years. We suspect even a few +C will have dire consequences.

      I guess some time after that scientific papers will be able to prove it happened.

    56. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Predict everything, predict nothing.

    57. Re:What if... by Sique · · Score: 1
      Yes, you could, but not in five years. The year 2024 could be an outlier in both directions. Maybe the global warming is much slower than predicted, but just the year 2024 could be exceptionally warm and be 1.5 C warmer than the average between 1951 and 1980, for instance because of a very strong El Nino. At the same time, both 2023 and 2025 could be quite cold, so the total warming would be less than 1.5 C, though 2024 would indicate otherwise. But still, the prediction would be wrong.

      Or 2024 could be comparatively cold, being somewhat below the 1.5 C above the 1951-1980 average. But both 2023 and 2025 could be exceptionally hot, the hottest years on record or something. Then the prediction holds despite 2024 being less than 1.5 C warmer.

      We had a similar case with the year 1998, which was exceptionally hot, and then you saw all the reports in the following years how global warming has stopped, as the next years were colder than 1998. But since the 2010s, all the following years were again warmer than even 1998, and the "No global warming" people don't quote trends with 1998 or 1997 as starting point anymore.

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*
    58. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um, this is exactly how science works, science rarely can work in absolutes nowadays because we're dealing with massively complex systems, as such everything becomes a probability.

      The summary even clearly states that the current calculations suggest a 10% chance we could break 1.5c in the next 5 years. What's wrong with that? It's a validly calculated probability by any scientific measure.

      If you don't understand science that's fine, but don't pretend because you don't understand probability and it's place in science that it's somehow not science. Your ignorance doesn't in any way detract from the scientific validity of any other study or calculation, your ignorance is completely independent of that, it is it's own distinct problem that only you can resolve. Fudging scientific calculations just to satisfy your ignorance as you're really asking them to do here so you can have a definite yes or no binary answer to whether it will happen? now that really would definitely not be science.

      It's not about claiming victory, it's about doing a scientific study that gives confidence levels in different outcomes. There's a low, but not negligible probability that we'll break 1.5c in the next 5 years. That's a valid scientific statement; if it happens they can, if anything, consider that their model is perhaps underestimating the rate of climate change and it's even worse than they thought. If it doesn't happen, but their higher confidence level predictions do (i.e. > 50%), then there's a reasonable chance their model is accurate. For the mathematically challenged like yourself, they're also saying there's a 90% chance this wont happen.

      Only if their model fails all it's predictions completely can you say the model is a completely failed project, because that's exactly how science works; make predictions and measure their correctness or not.

      The success of their study isn't measured in victory or loss, it's measures in degrees of success dependent on how many of their predictions came true in 5 years time relative to the confidence levels they applied. The 1.5c one really won't factor in to their radar even if this is the one the media has picked up precisely because they believe there's only a 10% chance of that happening, what the scientists will really care about is whether their > 50% predictions were correctly modeled by their model or not.

      P.S. Who are the fucking idiots that modded GP up? We really have not just one dumb AC who doesn't understand percentages and probabilities, but 5 fucking dumb mods who don't as well? Slashdot really is becoming a centre of anti-science where ignoramus who don't even have a basic science education appear to be flocking to bitch about how the world is against them. They don't put two and two together; their lives suck and they're having to bitch all the time precisely because they're the type of uneducated fact defying retards whom the world has no time for in the first place. Success rarely comes for those who don't have at least a modicum of ability to accept facts and who don't even understand junior grade science.

    59. Re: What if... by houghi · · Score: 1

      People will go against the wording, no matter what. If it us 1.49 difference, they will also say that it was not correct.

      Insteaf of abusing language like a 12 year old who discoverd the double entamdre, attack the science.

      I do not care if they day "it will" or "it might". Concentrating on that is the best way to not look at the research.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    60. Re:What if... by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      You mean those same CFL's that burn out in half the time of a incandescent

      Sorry I don't buy chinese shit.

    61. Re:What if... by gtall · · Score: 1

      "control like solar maximums" BS, read the proper science articles and stop spouting right-wingnut "theories".

    62. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ah yes.. proper and government approved science is the only real science!

    63. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > "No matter what you think of global warming, that ain't science."

      No matter what you think about science, it is not about 'scoring' with predictions.
      It is a warning, and it indicates warming is going faster than expected.

    64. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You sound home schooled.

    65. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson challenged

      Is that the serial rapist guy with no published papers in the past two decades? With a measly h-index of 12?

      LOL, that's no scientist.

    66. Re:What if... by squiggleslash · · Score: 1

      Except almost nobody denies that the climate changes and is changing.

      Climate deniers are not people who deny the climate changes, but people who deny the overwhelming evidence that AGW is occurring and who pretend studies like the one this article is quoting are "unscientific" because it has the audacity to assign probabilities to possible outcomes and include some where the probability is less than 50%.

      When the GP talkings about climate deniers refusing to take bets, he's talking about those people, people who claim on one hand that the studies are "unscientific" but on the other refuse to make easy bets that would succeed more frequently than fail if climate scientists were, actually, not scientists.

      --
      You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
    67. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Improper science" is just goofing around

    68. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 0

      What the hell brand of CFL ae you using that fail so quickly?

      Well that's a question on use isn't it? If you use a CFL for 3/hr day as proscribed by the "average lifetime of the CFL" in question, you'll be able to get away with it for 10 years. On the other hand, if it's used say 6 hours a day, it quickly becomes a year or less that the CFL on average will last. The quality of them has also fallen through the floor as governments have offset the cost via rebate programs, leading more often then note failures with the caps.

      LED's are far better I agree, but remember we're talking about CFL's. Though you might not have noticed either that the quality of name brand LED lights has also started to suffer from low quality components. It's kinda like all those 3ft/4ft T5 tubes that were pushed ~10-12 years ago as energy efficient, made with complete shit solid state transformer arrays(from China) that burn out within a couple of years vs the older transformers that oh keep going for decades at a time. Speaking on old, I've got a couple of 3ftx3bulb arrays(T12) that were used for street lights, basically they ran for 10-14hrs/day for 6 months of the year. Short of the bulbs actually dying and becoming impossible to find they're still working strong over 40 years later.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    69. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 0

      Their natural summer habitate does not exist anymore, so they migrate.

      It doesn't? Never been to the sub arctic have you. You must believe that sad story about polar bears floating on ice and starving to death.

      So you don't dispose your light bulbs properly but blame the material for environmental hazards?

      Think you missed the part of the materials required for the manufacture. Making a incandescent bulb is trivial enough that anyone who passed grade 9 science should be able to do it in their garage.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    70. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 0, Troll

      In *your part* of Canada. They are moving, because their habitat is being destroyed. By climate change.

      Oh that explains the 50% rise in the population over the last couple of decades then. Boy, sure glad we know it's climate change that's encouraged them to have increased litter sizes and population growth.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    71. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      The Polar Bears are moving south.
      Weird.
      It must because their population is exploding. Only explanation.

      Well, what happens when a population increases in size and then further discovers easier hunting grounds? Plenty of research on that topic among various predator species.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    72. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 2

      "Polar Bear Population on the Rise" according to new study by the University of Bad Math, Ontario.

      And to think, that article is over 6 years old~ And the numbers are still increasing...and they've actually increased the kill quotas a couple of times for inuits because they've become a problem.

      It's like people believe whatever bullshit is fed to them, and take it for gospel truth.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    73. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Sorry I don't buy chinese shit.

      So you're buying american made, packed with chinese shit then? You should crack open a CFL or LED bulb one of these days then go look at the MTBF on the various components. Boy will you be surprised when you discover the diodes are as cheap as they come with a MTBF of 250 hours. And even at that high rate of failure a company that advertises "10 year life" can send you a replacement and it still is profitable enough for them.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    74. Re:What if... by sycodon · · Score: 0

      I had regular Florescent light bulbs (straight kind) in my garage, always on, for at least 5 years, 24/7...same tubes. If I recall the ballast actually failed and I just got new tubes when I got the new fixture.

      I put one of these spiral CFL bulb in my front porch light....left it on 24/7. Dead within the month.

      I believe it was a Phillips.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    75. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 2, Informative

      They're moving south because the ice they used to live on is melting, and they can't walk on water... so they move to land. With is south.

      Boy are you gonna be surprised when you discover that Polar Bear Provincial Park, isn't really ice but tundra. By the way, good luck visiting there it requires special access these days. Avoid the winter, and be in good health. It's fly-in only. Also don't piss off the people in Peawanuck they're pretty nice.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    76. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually the Polar bears are pushing into the black and grizzly bear territories because of the sea ice disappearing earlier, and re-forming later. The population across North America's arctic has been fairly stable. Seems that an apex carnivore has a burning desire to eat, and the only options is moving south into the other bears territories. Seeing the cross breeds is interesting. I anxiously await the first polar-black bear cross. A grey bear I guess.

    77. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Didnâ(TM)t you get the news?
      LED bulbs have replaced Fluorescent, they are brighter, even more energy efficient and will outlast you. you will die before they burn out.

    78. Re: What if... by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Re: What if... (Score:-1)
      by Anonymous Coward on 02-07-19 6:03 (#58083510)
      I have a statistics PhD.

      [citation needed]

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    79. Re: What if... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      You seem to fail to grasp how the warming will occur across the planet.
      How do you come to that idea?

      You are quite right, nevertheless a moderate increase to +3C or +4C will not melt much ice ... hence: except Bangladesh, Florida and Pacific islands, there won't happen much.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    80. Re:What if... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      And you miss the part of light bulbs being manufactored in factories, that usually have strict environmental rules and closed production cycles with now waste ...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    81. Re:What if... by splashd · · Score: 1

      If I return label for label--"Climate Alarmists" perpetuate the false argument that "deniers" think that climate is static. Ridiculous. The dichotomy centers around whether man is a primary factor in affecting climate in causing global warming. I freely admit I'm skeptical on this supposition, because there is no sound science to support it. In that, if one makes the claim, one should have strong evidence that isolates the cause and effect in the form of historical proof, or within a high fidelity model inclusive of relevant variables.

      Instead, we rely on coarse models of a small change of one of thousands of factors that influence climate, that have yet to be shown to reflect reality as it unfolds.

      That's not good science, so I remain, not in denial, but skeptical

      --
      technical whipping boy, Occam's Strop (think about it...)
    82. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What we do know is that Climate Scientists don't understand statistics since they are always being corrected by the Skeptics who point out their math errors.

    83. Re:What if... by sycodon · · Score: 0

      LOL!

      Some asshat thinks I was Trolling Phillips I guess.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    84. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is true in the west. That remains false in china.

    85. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A rare day on slashdot. Posting AC for shy of 20 years and modpoints used to come easily with good posts.

      Since I have been given due care, I must say that I do believe in global warming and humanity is at least part of the cause. I do not believe in the specific amounts, and never ever believe predictions are scientific. Several science degrees, like many here have, train us to treat all predictions as unscientific until proven and never science if not disprovable.

      Countless global warming predictions have come and gone disproven with narry a peep save for a blurb in the journal article about how models are not scientifically disprovable. That is garbage science and is misleading everyone who does not have the time or education to read journals.

      Plan for the future. Do not predict it. Do not treat future expectations as present results.

      Anyone who claims to be able to do the latter with science who is not the first trillionaire and benevolent, or otherwise, dictator of the planet is a liar and a charlatan at best. And there are many who claim to know the future as fact with science.

    86. Re: What if... by WindBourne · · Score: 2

      No, LEDs do not outlast us. I changed my entire house to LEDs over 5 years ago. I've had at least 7 go out. To be fair, LEDs are a LOT better than the CFLs and uses 50% of the electricity. However, I've also had a GE LED start a fire. Thankfully, I was in kitchen at time and turned off and then used an extinguisher on it. Of course, I called GE, and they said send them the bulb and they would tell me which Chinese company made it so that I could take a lawsuit to china. NOT impressed.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    87. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it doesn't hit 1.5C in 5 years, can I criticize the prediction.

      Jesus! Really?? If it hits 1.499999999C in that time, but not over, I guarantee you we will hear from you guys non-fucking-stop about how the climate scientist are WRONG! It's how you guys roll.

      If you didn't criticize it I would send the cops to your house to do a welfare check.

    88. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You need to go back and do more research, you're wrong, the IPCC reports can't be more clear about what happens at +2C and its includes a lot of melting and flooding. +3 or 4C will be globally devastating.

    89. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dude, you're a whiny poor person from Toronto, you've made it clear before yourself. Don't pretend you have any idea about the rest of your country. You couldn't afford to travel North if you wanted to because your spend all your time on Slashdot spreading nonsense rather than sorting your pathetic life the fuck out.

      I'm not Canadian but I HAVE been to not just Northern Canada, and Greenland, and Svalbard, and I can say with absolute certainty that yes the ice cover has drastically decreased, and yes, polar bears are suffering and dying as a result, and yes it's pushing them south into ever greater contact with humans and other species.

      You can have your opinions, but your lies are never going to work, because some of us really have seen these things with our own eyes, and your lies are never going to beat real actual experience and first hand knowledge.

    90. Re:What if... by DamnOregonian · · Score: 1

      Well, what happens when their habitat is literally disappearing?
      Which is actually a verifiable fact, unlike the speculation that they have discovered, and I quote, "easier hunting grounds"
      Plenty of research about that topic too, unless you consider it a hoax because it clashes with some weird ass fucking neurosis you have.

    91. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The political movement isn't that climate change is happening. It's that we need socialism to fix it.
      Need I point out exactly how screwed up the soviet union was in terms of the environment.

    92. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The permian extinction wasn't caused by warming. It was caused by a shit ton of giant volcanoes over an area bigger than Texas called the Siberian Traps spewing out poison and lava.
      Really, really nice try though.

    93. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Eocene thermal maximum was likely caused by melting methane clathrates. Temperatures increased by 12-15C and it was 25C at the arctic.
      In spite of the doom mongering, there was increased global biodiversity rather than a mass extinction.

      There was probably, though, giant storms and a shit ton of epic floods.

      We need a bunch more Dutch engineers to build dykes. Just in case.

    94. Re:What if... by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Well that's a question on use isn't it? If you use a CFL for 3/hr day as proscribed by the "average lifetime of the CFL" in question, you'll be able to get away with it for 10 years. On the other hand, if it's used say 6 hours a day, it quickly becomes a year or less that the CFL on average will last.

      And that's still far longer than a standard incandescent, so your original post was nonsense, with a particular agenda not supported by evidence.

    95. Re:What if... by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Sometimes there can be manufacturing faults out the starting gate, but once past that they should be fine. The only CFL I had fail was a daylight temperature. They are relatively expensive so I bought the cheapest one I can find and it lasted a couple of weeks as it probably had a manufacturing fault. The rest I've had were mostly name brands, and some the energy company sent me for free, and were all fine. Whether they have survived being in a box in a cold shed for 5 years I don't know, but I haven't had another one fail to need to replace one to test that, but then the ones lighting the shed are CFLs that have been there as long and are fine and probably more exposed to extremes of temperature. They get used pretty much every day, although not for all that long as I tend to spend time in the house rather than the shed.

    96. Re:What if... by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Saying that there has been the occasional instance I've forgotten about the shed and left them on for days at a time. I try to avoid that, of course.

    97. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I have a statistics PhD.

      That is statistically unlikely.

    98. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What we do know is that Climate Scientists don't understand statistics since they are always being corrected by the Skeptics who point out their math errors.

      Nope. There are occasional errors, like in all fields. The word "always" now puts the burden of proof on you to show how every single study is mathematically flawed. Good luck with that.

    99. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      And that's still far longer than a standard incandescent,

      Standard incandescent, well lets see. I've got a few left that are rated for 40,000 hours and aren't heavy-duty rated. Let's not forget either that the modern CFL and LED bulbs are far more sensitive to voltages then an incandescent as well, note your place from the transformer. Then calculate your drop-off and MTBF for the internal components. Incandescents are easy, if it's +5-10(120v), they last 10% less. -5-10v it's 10% longer. They're also not susceptible to line noise issues, which also cause component failures in electronics. If you live anywhere that's had it's grid updated in the last 10 years you'll probably start seeing more line noise, you can thank those shit-core transformer windings from China.

      so your original post was nonsense, with a particular agenda not supported by evidence.

      Nonsense? You mean what it says right off the box of the most popular brands. Not forgetting the environmental impact of the materials required to make it. On the other hand, a double coil tungsten element is simple to make and the element material itself was collected as slag-off from regular mining.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    100. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      And you miss the part of light bulbs being manufactored in factories, that usually have strict environmental rules and closed production cycles with now waste ...

      And how much of what component is made in the west these days? I can't tell if you're ignorant, or simply ignorant of the general supply chain when something is made. Pull apart that LED bulb next to you. Let me know when you get finished reading "made in china" on everything from the PCB to the IC to the LED array strip. You may need to look up individual part numbers based off stamping if it's not a strip and instead individual LED's soldiered in.

      When you get done, go look up the places in China where they were made. Then look up the assembly point(s). Because here's what you'll see. 90% of the components and pre-manufacturing not made in the west with those environmental rules and closed production cycles on waste. The final assembly, such as taking the fully assmbled PCB with components on board and enclosing them into a shell and socketing surface? Maybe in the west. Bonus points if you test the soldier and instead of finding tin, you find 50/50 lead/tin despite the no Pb label.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    101. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Dude, you're a whiny poor person from Toronto, you've made it clear before yourself. Don't pretend you have any idea about the rest of your country. You couldn't afford to travel North if you wanted to because your spend all your time on Slashdot spreading nonsense rather than sorting your pathetic life the fuck out.

      Well, look at that. Not only are you a special kind of idiot, but one that can't even get things straight. Give you a bonus point if you can figure out where I've worked in the far north, I've said that one too. Give you a hint, it's cold and not in Alberta, Saskatchewan or Ontario.

      I'm not Canadian but I HAVE been to not just Northern Canada, and Greenland, and Svalbard, and I can say with absolute certainty that yes the ice cover has drastically decreased, and yes, polar bears are suffering and dying as a result, and yes it's pushing them south into ever greater contact with humans and other species.

      So which is it? The fact that counts, electronic tagging and trackers, and setting up and recording numbers through migration paths showing that the numbers are increasing. And that primary diet animals are also on an increase. Or that the studies done on it, and the fact that they show the opposite of what you just said is a lie.

      You can have your opinions, but your lies are never going to work, because some of us really have seen these things with our own eyes, and your lies are never going to beat real actual experience and first hand knowledge.

      I'm sure you did. So how much was the loaf of bread and milk? And why is mock chicken popular in Northern Canada. By the way, what's the difference between beaver tails and beaver tails?

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    102. Re:What if... by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2

      Well, look at that. Not only are you a special kind of idiot, but one that can't even get things straight. Give you a bonus point if you can figure out where I've worked in the far north, I've said that one too. Give you a hint, it's cold and not in Alberta, Saskatchewan or Ontario.

      I'm not Canadian but I HAVE been to not just Northern Canada, and Greenland, and Svalbard, and I can say with absolute certainty that yes the ice cover has drastically decreased, and yes, polar bears are suffering and dying as a result, and yes it's pushing them south into ever greater contact with humans and other species.

      So which is it? The fact that counts, electronic tagging and trackers, and setting up and recording numbers through migration paths showing that the numbers are increasing. And that primary diet animals are also on an increase. Or that the studies done on it, and the fact that they show the opposite of what you just said is a lie.

      You can have your opinions, but your lies are never going to work, because some of us really have seen these things with our own eyes, and your lies are never going to beat real actual experience and first hand knowledge.

      I'm sure you did. So how much was the loaf of bread and milk? And why is mock chicken popular in Northern Canada. By the way, what's the difference between beaver tails and beaver tails?

      Moreover populations that are predator-prey, which is almost all of them, follow cyclic patterns as prey explodes, then predators, who eat them down, then start starving themselves.

      You can't just look at a few years here and there and compare it to another random segment from a previous cycle.

      Thank differential equations for showing this. Stable populations are the lie.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    103. Re:What if... by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      Having said this, it isn't per se an argument against the bear evidence for gw, just that you need to be careful.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    104. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So to be clear, your saying that POLAR bears are not being impacted by climate change, because you are seeing them more often in NON-polar zones?

      Shit, your going to love the proportionate decrease in tropical zone diseases as they move into formerly temperate climates.

    105. Re: What if... by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Educate yourself. We're not really sure about an event that happened 250 million years ago with a few possible causes including impact events, volcanoes, methane hydrates etc. Likely a combination, especially as it seems to have possibly happened in a few pulses.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    106. Re:What if... by vague+disclaimer · · Score: 1

      Huh? https://arcticwwf.org/species/... and huh? https://polarbearsinternationa... Fact check, Blenkinsop, fact check.

    107. Re: What if... by syn3rg · · Score: 1

      +1 Funny
      I wish I had mod points.

      --
      The contents of this message have been doubly encrypted by ROT13
    108. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > You may criticize the prediction under one scenario: If the temperature change is = 0C. +/- 0.46C Then there is no global warming.

      Fixed it for you.... Here's my response
      https://www.jstor.org/stable/p...

    109. Re:What if... by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Their natural summer habitate does not exist anymore, so they migrate.

      It doesn't?

      Here's an image that compares sea ice average prior between 1979 and 2000 to sea ice in 2007: https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov... . It's been worse since 2007. Polar bears rely on sea ice to efficiently catch their seal prey. The polar bear's main prey, the ringed seal, relies on sea ice, too—for giving birth to and raising their pups.

    110. Re: What if... by syn3rg · · Score: 1

      I predict that it will be warmer or not tomorrow.

      --
      The contents of this message have been doubly encrypted by ROT13
    111. Re:What if... by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      A skeptic opens his mouth only to ask questions. I see no questions in your post.

      No, you're not a skeptic. You've already made your choice.
       

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    112. Re:What if... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      I live in Europe.

      Made in China is usually "imported from China" ... as in Gallic or Ginger.

      Why would we import LED ... or what was the other light bulb ? ... when we can do it for the same price here?

      Europe is not the "country" that outsourced all of its industries to China ... go figure.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    113. Re:What if... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      Except almost nobody denies that the climate changes and is changing.

      Which is the point. Fewer and fewer people are denying that the climate is warming. That's as expected - it's getting harder to deny and not look like a fool.

      But historically, it was common practice: had your average denier made a bet 10-15 years ago, they would have lost that bet. Because all of the historical predictions made by deniers have been wrong. The fact that they have retreated from the indefensible to a position they hope to defend (but won't) doesn't make their position sensible.

    114. Re: What if... by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      Please don't insult good honest educated folk. Homeshcool doesn't have a special ed dept.

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    115. Re:What if... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      It is all down to the great planetary fart. How hundreds of thousands of years of methane hydrates are released and that is down to weather extremes not so much climate.

      What happened to the warming that should have occurred because the concentration of CO2 has risen from 280ppm to 410ppm ?

    116. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      3C warming will mean a significant sea level rise. That's a temperature roughly equal to the Eemian warm period before the last ice age, when sea levels were 20-30ft higher than today. That would submerge a lot of large coastal cities and destroy a significant amount of agricultural land (former seafloor is great for farming, less so when it becomes seafloor again). It will take a while for the ice to melt - during the Eemian, sea level "only" rose at a rate of 8ft/century at the most, although this would already require us to evacuate Florida in a few decades. The CO2 levels and temperatures are rising much faster than the natural cycle, thanks to human activity, so things like sea level rise could also happen faster this time. For example, instead of gradually melting, the Greenland glaciers could destabilize and slide into the ocean at a rate much faster than the flow of meltwater.

    117. Re: What if... by DamnOregonian · · Score: 1

      I definitely understand that there are manufacturing defects, and that I may just be immensely lucky- but I switched my house out to LEDs 4 years ago, and have not had a single failure. Not one. It's been fucking awesome. Adjustable color temp as well.
      Now they were expensive as hell, but I was literally burning through a couple dozen incandescents a year.

    118. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People remember the few winners and ignore the many, many predictions which are disproven.

      So... you're going to take the "losers" and somehow use that to prove that the "winners" were incorrect also?
      How is that supposed to work?

    119. Re: What if... by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Like a group that basically has no peer- reviewed papers and is funded by fossil fuel companies?

    120. Re:What if... by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      So you're buying american made, packed with chinese shit then?

      No I buy Dutch designed well made chinese products. The "shit" part of the sentence is not a given.

      You should crack open a CFL or LED bulb one of these days then go look at the MTBF on the various components.

      I have. The general quality of products I buy is quite high. The driving circuits are decoupled from heat generating elements. The components are well above average rating including 105C capacitors rather than those general 85C home depot pieces of garbage. The board has proper safety gaps on the line side, and SMT components are nicely assembled compared to what often looks like a homemade shit-job.

      Boy will you be surprised when you discover the diodes are as cheap as they come with a MTBF of 250 hours.

      I would be very surprised if anything I bought had a MTBF of 250 hours given most of the now very old bulbs in my house have been running for easily 20x that length. Incidentally good luck finding a diode with any kind of data from a vendor that shows MTBF of 250 hours. Making up random shit doesn't help your case.

      Stop buying garbage and you won't have to live with garbage.

    121. Re: What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Rich people buying ocean front property don't really care if the house washes away in 20-30 years. They will enjoy the beach now and go to one of their other houses when the waves roll in, if they still even still own the property.

    122. Re:What if... by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Standard incandescent, well lets see. I've got a few left that are rated for 40,000 hours and aren't heavy-duty rated.

      The typical lifetime of an incandescent is under 2000. 40,000 is more like the lifetime of an LED. Stop making stuff up

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incandescent_light_bulb

      Incandescent bulbs typically have short lifetimes compared with other types of lighting; around 1,000 hours for home light bulbs versus typically 10,000 hours for compact fluorescents and 30,000 hours for lighting LEDs.

    123. Re: What if... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Same thing. I will say that we had 1/2 CFL and 1/2 Incandescent. Oddly, it was the CFLs that burned out so fast.

      Then we had put in a 10KW solar system and I wanted to bank electricity for the EV we were going to buy, as well as cut our CO2. Now, losing 1 / year, not a big deal since I bought these with a 10 year warranty. After GE and Lights of America fast burnouts, I bought Cree only (and several Phillips). 5 years ago, these were $10. Now, they are down to $5.00. I am just amazed that not everybody ppl has switched to LEDs.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    124. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Moreover populations that are predator-prey, which is almost all of them, follow cyclic patterns as prey explodes, then predators, who eat them down, then start starving themselves.

      You can't just look at a few years here and there and compare it to another random segment from a previous cycle.

      Thank differential equations for showing this. Stable populations are the lie.

      So 50-80 years of data showing a population increase isn't enough? Keeping in mind that prey populations for the polar bears are increasing. Not only do we have longer term counts of bears dating back 200 years or so, we've got far longer "on the ground" counts dating back over multiple generations.

      The prey populations were increasing even back during that ass-cold period in the 1970's, humans were a factor because industry and settlement itself meant that prey had more feeding locations. It's a similar case with the increase in deer in Ontario and Michigan, it the tag counts are the same but populations have gone up 40% in cases. That's a lot of deer.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    125. Re:What if... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      It's been worse since 2007. Polar bears rely on sea ice to efficiently catch their seal prey. The polar bear's main prey, the ringed seal, relies on sea ice, tooâ"for giving birth to and raising their pups.

      It has been? So why are we suddenly concerned with higher then normal seal populations and their direct impact on fish. Right, seal populations are increasing, and the primary fish diet is increasing enough so that harder limits on fishing quotas have been put in place as well as to not impact them. Enough so that the government had to use a treaty obligation in order to stop the 'natives' from using their territorial right of unlimited fishing.

      By the way ever seen what happens when a polar bear chases down a moose? You should go watch it happen.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    126. Re:What if... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe try Google if you have questions about what destroyed the Atlantic cod fishery?

    127. Re: What if... by reanjr · · Score: 1

      Rich people get rich by making sound financial decisions. Like not buying houses in future flood plains.

  2. When it doesn't happen in 5 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Nobody will remember the wrong prediction. And so it continues...

    1. Re:When it doesn't happen in 5 years by green1 · · Score: 1

      At this point when it comes to climate predictions we all remember lots and lots of wrong predictions, but very few people remember any correct ones. And what ones do happen to be correct, tend to be contained in a flood of ones that weren't.

      The climate is changing. But to constantly put out predictions that prove inaccurate (and alarmist) does a severe disservice to that cause. It also doesn't help that every single adjustment to past data is to move it towards predicted models, and away from actual measurements. It used to be that measurements were taken to establish the accuracy of models. Now models are made to establish the accuracy of actual measurements.

      Too much politics interfering with the science.

  3. Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp data by Crashmarik · · Score: 3, Informative

    A Critical Review of Global Surface Temperature Data Products
    The overall conclusion of this report is that there are serious quality problems in the surface temperature data sets that call into question whether the global temperature history, especially over land, can be considered both continuous and precise. Users should be aware of these limitations, especially in policy-sensitive applications.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p...

    Or free from extraneous influence

    ABSTRACT: Monthly surface temperature records from 1979 to 2000 were obtained from 218 indi-vidual stations in 93 countries and a linear trend coefficient determined for each site. This vector oftrends was regressed on measures of local climate, as well as indicators of local economic activity(income, gross domestic product [GDP] growth rates, coal use) and data quality. The spatial patternof trends is shown to be significantly correlated with non-climatic factors, including economic activ-ity and sociopolitical characteristics of the region. The analysis is then repeated on the correspondingIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gridded data, and very similar correlationsappear, despite previous attempts to remove non-climatic effects. The socioeconomic effects in thedata are shown to add up to a net warming bias, although more precise estimation of its magnitudewill require further research.

    https://www.int-res.com/articl...

  4. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Here's why people have stopped caring about "global warming"/"climate change" : https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

    Check the dates.

  5. No AI winter for meteorologists by AHuxley · · Score: 4, Funny

    Gets hot? Global warming as predicted.
    Gets cold? Climate change as predicted.

    --
    Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
    1. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, let us know when the globe starts getting colder. We'll wait.

    2. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What's an Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE)?

    3. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by quantaman · · Score: 2

      Gets hot? Global warming as predicted.

      Gets cold? Climate change as predicted.

      When did it get cold?

      Just because you're individually cold doesn't mean the planet is colder.

      That's the whole point of the polar vortex, it's isn't the planet getting colder, it's cold air from the pole coming down and your nice warm air going somewhere else.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    4. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It’s probably fair to say the utterly worthless /. “skeptic” shills will be nowhere to be found once that occurrs, which will likely to be in our lifetime.

      If it were up to me, I’d serve them to Lord Donald the Paper Zillionaire Hutt as chicken mcbuttnuggets.

    5. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You guys need a nice big wall to stop all that foreign cold air coming in and scaring your nice warm air away.

    6. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Gets cold?

      It hasn't gotten cold.

    7. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Climates change due to global warming. Nobody even claims it will get colder (except locally), the long-term trend clearly is warming.

    8. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by hey! · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, the temperature swings *are exactly* what the models were predicting even some twenty years ago: not just uniformly warmer *weather* but extreme local weather events.

      If you look at maps of *global* temperature anomaly you can see why. Globally most places are warmer, but the greater energy in the atmosphere is causing warm air to intrude northward. Since air (or ocean for that matter) mixes *very* slowly on a global scale, that means the cold Arctic air doesn't just disappear, it gets displaced southward.

      Sitting on one spot on the planet, you get *extreme* swings of temperature. I plotted the temperature swing at my house; it went down thirty five degrees C in *five hours*. Then after a couple days it rocketed up forty degrees overnight. Over in Chicago they had a *seventy degree* temperature swing over four days. If you're just thinking about your *local* weather, it seems mysterious. If you look at what's happening *globally* it's quite simple and straightforward.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    9. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My area has indeed had record cold temps and more extended sub-freezing temps in the last few years than we ever used to get. For the first 4 years after building my house in 2011 I never had a concern of pipes freezing. The last three have forced me to leave water running for weeks at a time to ensure the pipes don't freeze. As a kid in this area, there were plenty of winters where it barely dropped below 50 all winter long. Not having ground cold enough for snow to stick for years at a stretch was so common that my school let us out one day for a small flurry so kids could play in it.
       
      In the last 3 years we have had plenty of snow sticking, and snow days have been used for their intended purpose. My city had to purchase equipment to brine the roads and do more pre-emptive ice and snow work that they never felt a need to my entire life in this area.

    10. Re:No AI winter for meteorologists by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      It is, however, a fair criticism on the political apoplexy that develops after every severe event, hot or cold.

      Any such event only has meaning in terms of long term trends, which, even in the worst cases, are not particularly out of line.

      This is about warming which relates to sea rise over a few centuries, and from what I am told 90% will be thermal expansion not melting ice.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
  6. Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who gives a fuck about climate change?

    1. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by AHuxley · · Score: 1

      The people who polar bear related jobs.

      --
      Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
    2. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Tesla owners.

    3. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Look up “having a clue”.

    4. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      People who live on a planet where food production is related to climate? They might care.

    5. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by Cederic · · Score: 1

      Well, it is nice that I wont have to move to Southern Europe for a nice sunny retirement.

    6. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by SlaveToTheGrind · · Score: 1

      No.

      They're getting paid when you click on this shit.

      Thanks for playing.

    7. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      People with kids. Or more than 30 years to live.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    8. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by green1 · · Score: 1

      Many studies show that a warming climate will increase available land for growing crops, specifically in the northern hemisphere. They also indicate that a warmer climate is likely to equate to longer growing seasons in those areas.

      So yes, I suppose people wanting more food production should care about it...

    9. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by green1 · · Score: 1

      Some people own Teslas because they like the tech, not because they're trying to make some social/political statement.

    10. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Not everyone lives in the Northern Hemisphere, let alone anywhere that will benefit. Many studies show an overall reduction in capacity to produce food.

    11. Re:Is Slashdot being paid to post this shit? by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      A very important point to consider is that weeds would undergo the same acceleration of cycle as cultivated crops, and would also benefit from carbonaceous fertilization. most weeds are C3 plants, they are likely to compete even more than now against C4 crops such as corn

      In the areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished.

      ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) will affect monsoon patterns more intensely in the future as climate change warms up the ocean's water. Crops that lie on the equatorial belt or under the tropical Walker circulation, such as rice, will be affected by varying monsoon patterns and more unpredictable weather. Scheduled planting and harvesting based on weather patterns will become less effective.

      The US Global Change Research Program (2009) assessed the literature on the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the United States, finding that many crops will benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and low levels of warming, but that higher levels of warming will negatively affect growth and yields; that extreme weather events will likely reduce crop yields; that weeds, diseases and insect pests will benefit from warming, and will require additional pest and weed control; and that increasing CO2 concentrations will reduce the land's ability to supply adequate livestock feed, while increased heat, disease, and weather extremes will likely reduce livestock productivity.[73]

  7. 2018 4th warmest year on record by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's pretty clear, I'm sure even you can see a trend in this graph:
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/06/climate/fourth-hottest-year.html

    1. Re:2018 4th warmest year on record by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Whoosh.

    2. Re:2018 4th warmest year on record by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Nothing goes over my head. I'd catch it!"

    3. Re: 2018 4th warmest year on record by q_e_t · · Score: 2

      That's not how statistics work

      In the series 0,1,2,3,4,3,4,5,4,6,5,7,8,9,8

      if you said it was a trend downwards because the last two numbers are 9 then 8 you would likely be wrong. And of course there are a few places in that sequence where the numbers reduce. When applied to climate some say "cooling", even though the average in some window (say 5 numbers in the above) keeps going up.

    4. Re: 2018 4th warmest year on record by h33t+l4x0r · · Score: 0

      It's a sample size error, in other words. Like how I can say "Supreme Court Justices are 65x more likely to be alleged rapists than Mexican illegals".

  8. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by 110010001000 · · Score: 3, Informative

    "Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP, said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control."

    Written in 1989. We are too late already. I hope Musk gets his stainless steel rocket ready soon. I heard it fell over in the wind, but I am sure it will be up to the task of getting us off this planet.

  9. Warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who cares. Nobody, that's who.

    If anybody actually cared about this, then humans wouldn't be on the verge of extinction.

    Well, good riddance to bad rubbish. Stop pretending, it really doesn't suit you.

  10. Learn what EXPOMENTIAL means, humanity! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It means between the apocalypse and halfway being there lies just one cycle.
    It means 10 years of 7% growth result in a *doubling*!

    It means if you think now you should start doing something, you're already seconds from ramming into the wall.

    Global politics and exponential worsening ... there couldn't be a worse combination.

  11. Just great.... a typo in the freaking title! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is there a doctor here? I need a bullet pulled out of my foot. A tank shell, to be precise.

    --.--

    P.S.: I forgot: The main cause of extinction, including human, can be observed in the rest of this /. comment section. It'll be fun seeing them go down against nature.

  12. Average temperatures can be misleading by rossdee · · Score: 4, Informative

    If you ask people around here if they are worried about a 2 to 3 degree F temperature increase, they would say they'd welcome it, especially at this time of year.
    Last week it hit -35F (actual temperature, not wind chill)

    Of course ots not as simple as that, climate change means preciptation patterns change and extreme weather events (floods, droughts and storms) become more common.

    In recorded and prerecorded history the climate/weather problem that has killed the most people is drought.

    1. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Subtropical desert areas are expected to expand poleward as the climate changes.

    2. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by quantaman · · Score: 2

      If you ask people around here if they are worried about a 2 to 3 degree F temperature increase, they would say they'd welcome it, especially at this time of year.
      Last week it hit -35F (actual temperature, not wind chill)

      Of course ots not as simple as that, climate change means preciptation patterns change and extreme weather events (floods, droughts and storms) become more common.

      In recorded and prerecorded history the climate/weather problem that has killed the most people is drought.

      I'm up in Alberta. We love to complain about the cold... but you learn how to dress and its fine. The problem this winter isn't the cold snaps (-34C a couple days ago), it's the warm snaps. A couple days of +5C in the middle of January sounds lovely, until the weather drops the next week and the streets and sidewalks turn into skating rinks.

      Global warming also sucks because our economy runs on oil. We can keep pumping the oil the next 5 years, probably 10. But in 20 years? 40? Sooner or later it's going to undeniably start hitting the fan and our oil isn't going to have many buyers.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    3. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      No, it is floods.
      From a drought you can "run away", from a flood not so much.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    4. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      You can only run so far, 'til you meet someone with a bigger gun who is already there and not too eager to share what's left of his arable land.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    5. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Always be a need for plastics.

    6. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by Scroatzilla · · Score: 1

      >> prerecorded history
      Citation needed.

    7. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But they aren't. They are actually greening.

    8. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Obviously, hence our "problems" with migration.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    9. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      "just ate a big sandwich and now I'm stuffed! So much for global hunger!"

      [ credit: not me ]

    10. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by green1 · · Score: 2

      You obviously haven't been in Alberta long.
      I've been here my whole life, and the -34c in winter is normal. the +5c in winter is also normal. That's Alberta weather for you. If anything is unusual this winter it's not the temperatures, it's the slightly lower amount of precipitation, but even that happens some winters, and has for decades. The temperatures this winter are well within the normal range for Alberta (and sure, there may have been a record broken here or there for a specific day, but if the same temperature had happened a few days earlier or later it probably wouldn't have broken the record.) Alberta just has lots of variability in winter, it's the predominant wind currents from the west, combined with the mountains to the west that allows this all to happen in this way.

    11. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by quantaman · · Score: 1

      You obviously haven't been in Alberta long.
      I've been here my whole life, and the -34c in winter is normal.

      Same here, and -34 is a lot less normal than it used to be.

      the +5c in winter is also normal.

      And a bit more normal, and a bit longer than usual.

      The temperatures this winter are well within the normal range for Alberta (and sure, there may have been a record broken here or there for a specific day, but if the same temperature had happened a few days earlier or later it probably wouldn't have broken the record.)

      It's not the temperatures, but the average is definitely warmer. When I was younger long stretches from -15 to -25 were considered pretty typical, now people start treating it like a bit cold snap. And it's not just my imagination, Edmonton is averaging 3C warmer in the winter.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    12. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by DarthVain · · Score: 1

      Pretty much Ontario right now... A weeks worth of -30 followed by a weekend worth of +5, and then the usual -10 to -15 and everything is fucked.

      I was looking at the fog last night like it was Stephen King's Mist as I knew what it was going to do by the next morning, cover everything in a thin layer of water which will instantly freeze by the next morning.

      Also makes applying salt rather pointless as it just washes away...

    13. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by green1 · · Score: 1

      It's too bad your source uses "adjusted" numbers and refuses to use actual measurements.

    14. Re:Average temperatures can be misleading by quantaman · · Score: 1

      It's too bad your source uses "adjusted" numbers and refuses to use actual measurements.

      Why? So some economist can look at the raw data, see noise, and declare it's all nonsense?

      I'm sure actual researchers who know how to process climate data know where to get the original data. I don't know what the point of making a misleading and less useful version of the data slightly easier to get is.

      --
      I stole this Sig
  13. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seems to me he was absolutely right. Humans have clearly demonstrated they are unable to control their greenhouse emissions.

  14. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    McKitrick is an economist; no surprise he thinks global warming is due to economic factors. That first paper wasn't even published, it's purely an opinion piece. And the second paper completely ignores all the correlating lines of evidence from oceanic and satellite data, temperature proxies, etc etc.

  15. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by 110010001000 · · Score: 3, Informative

    That isn't what he was saying. He was saying that in ten years (1999) it would be too late to solve the greenhouse effect and after that the greenhouse effect is out of human control. So according to him (and the experts) it is too late to do anything about it. We had the chance 20 years ago, but it too late now.

  16. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    According to the UN it can all be fixed by sending hundreds of millions to poorer countries.

  17. Silly humans by AndyKron · · Score: 2

    Silly humans think they have a choice in what they do.

  18. Are you sure haven't already reached 1.5C? by Layzej · · Score: 2

    It's really not clear that we haven't already warmed more than 1.5C above pre-industiral. Just look at the Berkley record which goes farther back than others and includes confidence intervals. It's possible we're much closer to 2C above pre-industiral.

    1. Re:Are you sure haven't already reached 1.5C? by GLMDesigns · · Score: 2

      You do realize there was a little Ice Age at the end of the 17th C. So you're comparing the trough of a wave with a crest.

      Why don't you compare crest to crest and do it over a realistic period of time - let's say 120 million years. Why 120 million years? Because that was when proto-mammals first appeared. The environment had been acceptable for mammals for millions of years before that.

      Oh you think that's too long a range? How doing your chart from about 80 million years ago (when mammals appeared on the scene). You will see that CO2 and temperature has fluctuated wildly over that time AND ... that change in CO2 was not a leading indicator for temperature changes.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    2. Re:Are you sure haven't already reached 1.5C? by Layzej · · Score: 2

      You do realize there was a little Ice Age at the end of the 17th C. So you're comparing the trough of a wave with a crest.

      The LIA had ended by the second half of the 18thC when the Berkley temperature analysis starts. So there is no trough included in this graph.

      Here's a longer term view if you like. Notice the 6000-8000 year trend back into an ice age that was dramatically reversed during the industrial revolution.

    3. Re:Are you sure haven't already reached 1.5C? by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      The woodfortrees site is an awesome resource.

      The other one makes me very skeptical.

      If temperatures are rising due to human CO2 production then, at earliest, the rise in temperatures should start at the beginning of the 20th C. The steam engine - the real cause for increased fossil fuel consumption wasn't developed until the end of the 18th C. If you're going to be particular about the phrasing - the first steam engine was developed in the late 17th C, but it wasn't until Watt's improvements, mainly the flywheel, that the steam engine came onto it's own. And, it wasn't until the early 19thC that high-pressure engines were developed.

      Until this point - early 19thC - mechanized power, and the use of fossil fuels, was, for all practical purposes, the same as in classical times.

      A graph on this site - https://ourworldindata.org/fos... - clearly shows that the rise of fossil fuel use (ie CO2 production) only really started by the beginning of the 20th C. And, since CO2 is the cause of global warming (according to AGW proponents), then any rise in temperature before the 20th C was not caused by fossil fuel consumption.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    4. Re:Are you sure haven't already reached 1.5C? by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Natural variability no doubt dominated early on. That is no longer the case. Here is the atomospheric CO2 and delta forcing between each 50 year period. (DeltaF=5.35ln(C/C0)Wm^-2)

      1750: 277 ppm CO2 to start

      1800: 280 ppm / deltaF=0.06 Wm^-2

      1850: 284 ppm / deltaF=0.08 Wm^-2

      1900: 295 ppm / deltaF=0.20 Wm^-2

      1950: 312 ppm / deltaF=0.30 Wm^-2

      2000: 369 ppm / deltaF=0.90 Wm^-2

      2014: 397 ppm / deltaF=0.39 Wm^-2

      You can see that between 2000 and 2014 we've had a greater forcing than between 1900 and 1950. (source = ftp://data.iac.ethz.ch/CMIP6/i...)

    5. Re:Are you sure haven't already reached 1.5C? by Layzej · · Score: 1

      This image charts global mean temperature vs. GHG forcing. You can see that forcing was still small, but already rising by 1900. Natural variability dominates the early part of the chart. That natural variability is largely cyclical though and nets to about 0C over the full period.

  19. China and India by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    People often strawman the China\India argument implying people are against action to prevent increased temperatures. They do this because they are arrogant little pricks that get off defending their Chinese iPhone making overlords.
    Tell China and India to get their shit together. Stop buying their garbage.

  20. Re:What if... they can predict the weather? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Interesting

    I live in a desert, and meteorologists still manage to get the weather reports wrong. So I'll take any long term forecasts for the globe with a mountain of salt.

  21. Re: Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp da by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Let me know when you don't believe whining about a snowball is a better show of science.

  22. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by quantaman · · Score: 1, Troll

    A Critical Review of Global Surface Temperature Data Products
    The overall conclusion of this report is that there are serious quality problems in the surface temperature data sets that call into question whether the global temperature history, especially over land, can be considered both continuous and precise. Users should be aware of these limitations, especially in policy-sensitive applications.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p...

    Or free from extraneous influence

    Well lets forget those decades of research by thousands of climate scientists.

    You found an unpublished paper by an economist!!

    Clearly he must have found a bunch of issues that the climate scientists weren't aware of and had no idea how to correct for!

    ABSTRACT: Monthly surface temperature records from 1979 to 2000 were obtained from 218 indi-vidual stations in 93 countries and a linear trend coefficient determined for each site. This vector oftrends was regressed on measures of local climate, as well as indicators of local economic activity(income, gross domestic product [GDP] growth rates, coal use) and data quality. The spatial patternof trends is shown to be significantly correlated with non-climatic factors, including economic activ-ity and sociopolitical characteristics of the region. The analysis is then repeated on the correspondingIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gridded data, and very similar correlationsappear, despite previous attempts to remove non-climatic effects. The socioeconomic effects in thedata are shown to add up to a net warming bias, although more precise estimation of its magnitudewill require further research.

    https://www.int-res.com/articl...

    Ohhh! This time he found a small (now defunct) journal and a co-author who is one of the few climate scientists who is a skeptic! (and incidentally is funded primarily by oil companies).

    That totally proves that the planet isn't warming and that all those other signals like drought, shrinking glaciers, shifting plant growth patterns, ocean temperatures, etc, etc, are somehow misleading.

    --
    I stole this Sig
  23. Re: Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp da by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bill gates and Soros will adopt all stupid sand n1ggers and bring them home to take over your shitty job.

  24. Global warming BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    WOLF!

    1. Re:Global warming BS by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      You do know how the story ends, right?

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    2. Re:Global warming BS by green1 · · Score: 1

      The problem is, how do you figure out which one of thousands upon thousands of BS predictions will actually be correct? We're getting awful tired of the wrong ones.

      Apparently these "scientists" didn't learn anything from the story either.

  25. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Crashmarik · · Score: 1, Interesting

    You found an unpublished paper by an economist!!

    Yeah that would be the same guy who showed the hockey stick was B.S. while thousands climate scientists were pushing it like the second coming

    https://www.technologyreview.c...

    But thank you for the Ad Hominem and the appeal to authority. Did you want to make it any clearer you don't have the intellectual horsepower to discuss the topic on your own ?

  26. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Brett+Buck · · Score: 1

    Well, will everybody shut the hell up about it, then?

  27. "Could" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Notice how they always use vague weasel words?

    "May"

    "Could"

    "Might"

    Yeah, well, the average temperature could be 1.5C colder in 5 years - and they'd still blame it on climate change.

    1. Re:"Could" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Welcome to Reality - we don't deal in absolutes here. That's why we give confidence values, like "10% likely".

    2. Re:"Could" by q_e_t · · Score: 1

      Those aren't weasel words, but because those are the standard language of science since nothing is ever absolutely proved beyond doubt. Even if you think something will happen 99.9999% of the time, you use 'highly likely', specify the probability, and error bars.

    3. Re:"Could" by green1 · · Score: 1

      How loudly would you proclaim your prediction if there was a 90% chance you'd be wrong?

  28. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html

    You were saying...

  29. Dang liberals aren't helping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    With all these so-called "witchhunts" we can expect liberal bonfires polluting the air.

    1. Re:Dang liberals aren't helping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Liberals are lighting beacons, while "conservatives" blows smoke. I have little doubt which is more helpful.

    2. Re:Dang liberals aren't helping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What a total fucking joke. Show me one thing a liberal has built or done?

  30. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That you bring up the hockey stick graph like the replican talking point it is, showsyou have zero clue. It’s a nonissue, trying to correct data and was never hidden.

    I wish I could say much ado about nothing, but people like you want to misinform and FUD on a very much important issue, whether out of ignorance, political or financial gain.

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm

  31. The trend itself was pre-industrial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    According to records, glacial recession began before the industrial era, as did the polar icecap changes as observed by British Royal Navy ships. However since 2000 there has been effectively zero warming despite record CO2 output. Warming and indusrial activity are almost completely unrelated.

    1. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by DamnOregonian · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry, but that's just physically impossible, period, all stop.
      The absorption spectrum of CO2 is well known. You don't even need to do an experiment to show that the system will warm as the CO2 increases.
      How much, atmospherically, is up for debate- serious debate given the sheer complexity of all the heat sinks this planet has. But to deny that industrial output will lead to a warming planet is unspeakably stupid. I hope you aren't allowed to breed.

    2. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by r2kordmaa · · Score: 1

      Are you claiming Earth is so special that laws of thermodynamics don't apply?

    3. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, you do need to do an experiment. As it turns out, the effect of increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is not linear.
      The first 100ppm or so do have a large effect (versus 0ppm), but much beyond where we are now (~400ppm), it becomes negligible.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/20...

    4. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by green1 · · Score: 1

      Why do an actual experiment when you have computer models? If you find data that disagrees, it's the data that must be wrong, never the model.

    5. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by DamnOregonian · · Score: 1

      Its linearity was never in debate. The core physical principle was, and that is simply: Anything in the atmosphere that impedes the transmission of long-wave radiation back out to space *will* warm our atmosphere. Period. All stop.

    6. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by DamnOregonian · · Score: 1

      Let us devise an experiment. You shall put a steel ball in an opaque container, shake it around a bit, and then put another ball in it. Shake it around some more, and then dump out the balls and count them.
      If there are 2, then the laws of physics hold, and increased CO2 causes a decrease in output thermal radiative flux.
      If there are 1, you've either got a quantum black hole in there, you only put one in to begin with, you can't count, or there's a fucking hole in the box.
      None of those things changes the core law that 1+1 simply fucking equals 2.
      As I said, *how much* it warms can be debated (and modeled) but modeling whether or not it will will never be done, because nobody who made it past highshool questions the core physics that make that obvious.

      I'm forced to conclude that you did not make it past high school, or even pay very good attention while you were there.

    7. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by green1 · · Score: 1

      Interesting that you are putting words in my mouth. I never said it wasn't warming. But no favours are done by exaggerating it for sensationalist stories, and when actual measurements are changed to fit models, instead of the other way around, a LOT of credibility is lost.

      If we were talking science instead of religion, it would be possible to have an intelligent discussion on the subject, however in the alarmist religion, even questioning the tiniest detail in a sensationalized press release gets you instantly labelled a "denier" instead of simply someone who wants high quality science on a very important topic.

      To go back to your analogy, we put 2 steel balls in the opaque container, shook it, and then counted the balls that came out. There were still only 2, but the model said there should be 3 now, so we told everyone that there were 3 even though only 2 were actually present. There were still 2 steel balls, it was important that there were 2 steel balls, but because we lied to the world and claimed 3, many people decided that we must be lying about the whole thing and refused to admit that there was even a single ball. We then blamed them for questioning our authority instead of admitting that we exaggerated our results for political gain.

    8. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by DamnOregonian · · Score: 1

      No, chief.
      Nobody made a model saying there were 3. They modeled how long it would take them to stop moving, or how long it would take them to fall out.
      That's the correct analogy here. And that is the level of stupidity involved with denial based upon the fact that the models are of questionable quality.
      The models could be 100% wrong, and they would keep trying to fix them, because the core physics says *the planet must be collecting thermal energy somewhere*

      If less than 2 balls come out of that container, you try to figure out where you fucked up your experiment, not invent new physics to make it possible for things to disappear into the void.

    9. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by green1 · · Score: 1

      The models could be 100% wrong, and they would keep trying to fix them, because the core physics says *the planet must be collecting thermal energy somewhere*

      Except the models ARE wrong, that much has been proven repeatedly. But instead of trying to fix them, they try to fix the data that proves them wrong. It's not science, it's religion.

      Unfortunately far too many "scientists" are trying to invent new physics rather than admit their computer model is wrong.

      In fact your entire post is exactly the opposite of what we keep seeing. When scientific models disagree with reality, the correct answer is never to assume reality is wrong and adjust the measurements, the correct answer is ALWAYS to adjust the model to match reality.

      Instead we see models that are provably wrong because they don't match reality being touted as absolute truth.

    10. Re:The trend itself was pre-industrial by DamnOregonian · · Score: 1

      Again, no.
      The models aren't wrong in the way you're characterizing them. You're wrong in the way you're characterizing them.
      The models are misjudging the amount of warming, you're trying to invent a magical way for there to be no warming where there physically must be (and there is, just different levels from what models predict)
      I can't figure out if you're stupid, or maliciously trying to mislead.

  32. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by quantaman · · Score: 1, Troll

    You found an unpublished paper by an economist!!

    Yeah that would be the same guy who showed the hockey stick was B.S. while thousands climate scientists were pushing it like the second coming

    https://www.technologyreview.c...

    So 20+ years ago a researcher published a graph (that got a lot of publicity), and the underlying math had some minor statistical errors that didn't actually affect the result much. And methods without the flaws have consistently produced similar graphs since.

    Therefore no global warming!

    Can we try "appeal to the completely irrelevant"?

    But thank you for the Ad Hominem and the appeal to authority.

    So you misunderstand how "Ad Hominem" work. You can criticize the person's expertise or character when it's relevant to their argument.

    COMPLETELY screw up "appeal to authority". It's appealing to an authority in an unrelated field that is the problem. For instance, appealing to the authority of a climate scientist about climate scientist, you're doing it right. Appealing to the authority of an economist on climate scientist... now you're straying towards "appeal to authority".

    Now how do you follow up your complete ignorance of logical fallacies?

    Did you want to make it any clearer you don't have the intellectual horsepower to discuss the topic on your own ?

    LOL

    --
    I stole this Sig
  33. 1.5 Coulomb by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Are you sure you don't mean degrees C rather than just C?

  34. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by sysrammer · · Score: 2

    Agree or disagree, it's a little sad when a post quoting about something directly pertaining to TFA gets modded as "flamebait".

    Humans are buggy.

    --
    His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
  35. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by q_e_t · · Score: 1

    And when the quality issues were fully examined by the BEST study and Cowtan and Way it became apparent that it tended to underestimate the rate of warming.

  36. coming solar minimum. by subie · · Score: 0

    I couldn't find it anywhere but it is 230am. Does anyone know if their research includes the coming solar minimum around 2020?

  37. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Kokuyo · · Score: 2

    Frankly, I'm just sick of the dude. I caught myself wanting to downmod him without even having read his posts.

    He sucks at marketing his points in a major way.

  38. The sky is falling! The sky is falling! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Maybe it's time to look at actual implementation of ENGINEERING SOLUTIONS instead of screaming "wolf" in an endless and useless fashion.

    You know, do something with an actual, achievable, PRODUCTIVE OUTCOME!

    All you're doing is contributing to subject matter fatigue.

  39. Is it even possible for you US-Americans ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    ... to NOT reduce literally everything to money?

    Even psychopaths are horrified by your cultural mindset.

    1. Re:Is it even possible for you US-Americans ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't worry, America will never top the tens of millions you've robbed and massacred in your colonies, your legacy is safe and history will not forget you.

  40. Re: Alkyl Nitrites: captcha I kid you not is AROMA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does the rounding error matter if I blend 0.17 mol of each of the three alcohols?

  41. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Ad hominem: you served jail time for "insert your crime", hence your argument must be wrong.
    Appeal to Authority: he is a professor (about greek history) and you are mechanics, so his few about climate change must be right, and you are wrong.

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  42. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's certainly too late to prevent it completely, as it's been having observable effects for a decade or two now. The CO2 we've emitted over the last 30 years will be affecting us for another century or so. It's never too late to avoid further effects though.

    It sounds like you're interpreting his words to mean we'd hit a runaway greenhouse effect by 2000. Back then that was a possibility, but was far from certain. These days, research suggests that's pretty unlikely - unless we pump another 200-300 ppm into the atmosphere, then all bets are off again.

  43. Re:What if... they can predict the weather? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Weather isn't climate.

    And you're a moron if you think your local weather is particularly relevant on the global scale or that any relevant conclusions can be made from looking at your little local data point and that alone. It's like trying to predict the temperature in your house by looking at the temperature in the oven. Fucking tool.

  44. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Cederic · · Score: 1

    Well lets forget those decades of research by thousands of climate scientists.

    How much of that research is based on 'adjusted' data sets? Who is using the actual underlying raw data, and using it properly?

    One frustration isn't whether there's global climate change or not, it's that all of the noise is coming from people that wouldn't know how to run an honest regression model if the future of the planet depended on it. Which is, lets face it, fucking ironic.

    Another frustration is that people always act as though global warming is somehow bad. I like the sun, I like deserts and I like extreme weather events, so things are going just fine for me.

    Another frustration is the sheer dishonesty of people on this topic. "We have to save the planet" or "People might die" or the old classic, "Think of my children". No, the planet will be perfectly fucking fine for quite some time irrespective of whatever the fuck humans do, your children will be fine whatever the weather and if you really care about the human race then acknowledge that the planet can't support the population it's going to have (and will eventually be eaten by the sun) so fuck global warming and invest properly in space exploration and colonisation.

    You found an unpublished paper by an economist!!

    Economists, with all their flaws, idiocies and demonstrable wrongness still somehow manage to retain greater credibility than climate scientists. That's pretty fucking damning.

  45. Re: Alkyl Nitrites: captcha I kid you not is AROMA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not really. The miscibility is different for different alcohols, so the reaction might be faster for one alcohol than another. With the HONO decomposing and forming gas, there is less opportunity for the esterification to happen but not much. If you make too much excess HONO, you end up with lousy yield for whatever reasons. i.e. don't go far past 1:1.2 for the alcohol:HONO ratio.

  46. Re: In before the dishonest Republican incel denia by DethLok · · Score: 1

    I'm not even sure to whom you are replying, but damn you, I smiled when I read your post :)

  47. the more the predictions fail, the worse they get by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At what point will it suddenly change into a different "theory", denying it was ever different than the new thing?
    Will we witness a bug purge of academia from people who will still believe in AGW?

  48. LOL - sure, we believe you... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    More lies from the alarmists. They are getting desperate now. Their models have been wrong EVERY TIME so far.

    www.climatedepot.com
    www.wattsupwiththat.com

    1. Re:LOL - sure, we believe you... by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      It's like loading your gun with 5 blanks and a live round.

      In other words, it's all shits and giggles 'til it's right ONCE.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    2. Re:LOL - sure, we believe you... by green1 · · Score: 1

      When your gun has tens of thousands of rounds, even if one of them finally does turn out to be live, russian roulette stops being so risky, and people lose interest awful quick.

      There are far more things we could be worrying about, with science that makes far more accurate predictions. It's a shame so much money is going to this instead of places that could make a real difference in quality of life on this planet.

    3. Re:LOL - sure, we believe you... by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      Like what?

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  49. Re: What if... they can predict the weather? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's like predicting that your mighty stove will make a pot of tepid water boil, and ignoring a factual observation of ice cubes being formed because they are "local". Others may conclude that your stove is not up to par.

  50. always the same denier trick why 2004 ? by aepervius · · Score: 2

    I mean, why so old when other sources show that by 2007 mcintre et al was disputed as being flawed, AND in the itnerim time many more models confirmed the hockey stick shape ? Why indeed show only something from 15 years ago ? The reader may decide if this was intentional. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    --
    C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
    visit randi.org
    1. Re:always the same denier trick why 2004 ? by BCGlorfindel · · Score: 2

      I mean, why so old when other sources show that by 2007 mcintre et al was disputed as being flawed, AND in the itnerim time many more models confirmed the hockey stick shape ? Why indeed show only something from 15 years ago ? The reader may decide if this was intentional. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      Convenient to leave out Mann's biggest trick. His original hockey stick graph displayed to disparate datasets. His proxy reconstruction of old temperatures, and superimposed on that was the instrumental record. This created the shocking effect of the graph abruptly surging away after 1900. Everyone then made a big deal about that coinciding with CO2 emissions, but much less attention was directed to that also coinciding with the change in datasets...

      You are correct that more recent studies have more or less recreated Mann's results. Many have improved on his work in a very important way by including graphs showing uncertainties more clearly. In those the noise dwarfs the signal, so again without the instrumental record, there is no sudden and abrupt 'hockey stick' shape within the proxy reconstruction. For that, you still need the subtle trick of adding instrumental data onto the end.

      The newest review of the literature I can find right now(I'm being lazy) is in Reviews of GeoPhysics on AGUpub, "Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature
      reconstructions of the past two millennia".

      Here's some of their notes and conclusions making more or less the same observations as my summary:
      "Regardless of the many seemingly contradicting results regarding, e.g., regularization methods, and regardless of other technical issues, underestimation of low-frequency variability is a serious concern and that reconstruction methods in particular have problems reconstructing temperatures that are outside the range of the calibration interval. The main reason seems to be a feature of direct regression and CPS methods which under general assumptions can be shown to be biased toward zero."

      "We saw that the different reconstructions agree on the general form of the low-frequency variability but that they disagree on the amplitude; the centennial-scale amplitude (i.e., the temperature difference between the warm eleventh century and the cold seventeenth century),in particular, varies from 0.14 to 1.3C

      Around page 25 they have this to say in comparing reconstructions to instrumental records:
      "It is obvious that the noise is considerable and that the signal TTis not easily seen in P. In particular, for
      c=0.40 and c=0.25 the trend in the twentieth century is practically lost in the noise. It is clearly not a simple
      task to extract the signal from the noisy series—almost like making eggs from scrambled eggs—although
      temporal or spatial averaging may reduce the noise."

      In other tree ring reconstruction reviews(I can't find it right now but I've not spend much time either) the authors note that bad sensitivity to high temperatures (like the current period), is a known issue particular to tree rings and handling of that problem is a big and current research area.

      So the overall summary being, there are a lot of unknowns, the hockey stick only 'works' if you are a bit dishonest on your graph, and when we say the current warming is unprecedented over the last millenia plus it is with a host of caveats and uncertainties that you need to read the full papers to see, and the uncertainties aren't nothing.

  51. Global Warming is the average temp for 1 year now? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Have all the good scientists quit and been replaced by teenage bloggers?

  52. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He already went back on that article. Turns out, the calculations were right after all:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sme8WQ4Wb5w

  53. Money is toxic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Money is toxic... You need to get rid of all of your money right now, or it'll poison you in 20 years. Just sent it over to me... You wouldn't want to be one of those idiots transporting your baby on top of the car would you?

    1. Re:Money is toxic by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      I really wish I could mod this up.

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
  54. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by religionofpeas · · Score: 2

    How much of that research is based on 'adjusted' data sets? Who is using the actual underlying raw data, and using it properly?

    Using it properly means that you have to adjust for various errors. Simple example: instead of using a wooden bucket and thermometer to measure sea temperature, ships now continuously measure temperature at inlet of cooling water. While both methods are fine, there is a small offset between the two, so if you want to use both in same graph, you need to adjust one or the other.

    The raw data is still available for download, as well papers describing the methods for adjusting. If you want to propose a better adjustment method, go ahead.

  55. It could . . . by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    . . . but that doesn't mean it will. It's called an observation, which is inert. Your panicked emotions are yours alone, and not a particularly good frame of mind from which to be exploring potential solutions.

  56. Re: What if... they can predict the weather? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    More likely they are concluding that you're a retard since, judging from the formation of ice cubes, you're apparently looking in the freezer rather than on the stove, while thinking it's relevant somehow.

  57. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    Reductio ad absurdum? Already?

    But entertain us, provide an example of this bullshit being even in the same ballpark as reality.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  58. No way we'll exceed 1.5c in 5 years by ilikethings · · Score: 1

    That's a violation of Lorentz invariance! I'm literally angry with rage.

  59. Woosh by mr.mctibbs · · Score: 1

    Another shining example to add to the AC's reputation for wit.

  60. It's all our fault! by biggaijin · · Score: 0

    If we had begun paying higher taxes and sent a lot of money to third-world countries like the Paris Accords wanted us to do, then all of this would not be happening, right?

  61. Alarm Alarm Alarm! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Stop lying!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgxgkRmsF2g

  62. Hysteria by argStyopa · · Score: 2

    https://www.nola.com/expo/news...

    This woman claims she "had to" destroy a home due to sea-level rise from climate change, because "she couldn't sell it, even after reducing the price 11 times".

    She bought the house just over 20 years ago. Sea level has risen 3" since then (at the most generous calculation). 3" makes this 80 year old home "unsellable"? Really?

    Then check this:
    https://blog.luxurysimplified....
    which links to this GIS map https://www.luxurysimplified.c...

    From that review, "...or fun, move to the "Historic Maps" layer and add the layer reflecting the map of 1680. The areas that are susceptible to flooding are exactly those that used to be marsh or creek. ..."

    Don't build your house in a creek bed and then complain that it floods. Complain to the builder/seller that they didn't disclose your house is where water should be.

    --
    -Styopa
  63. Mutual of Omaha's wild kindom presents! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    While cruising the Florida Everglades in air boats looking for nature drama our film producers chanced to stumble upon a polar bear. Not normally seen in these parts due to their preference for snow and ice, climate change is drawing them further south every year on their annual migration to the lemming herd feeding grounds in the southern keys. This is a rare opportunity to witness this majestic beast going about it's business, living as nature intended.

    Oh oh! Looks like there's a hungry alligator that's not about to give up it's meal! This could mean trouble!

  64. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by greythax · · Score: 2

    That was written by this guy. Respectfully, you might want to check your sources more carefully from now on.

  65. Hells yeah I'm freezing my butt off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Setting fire to railroad tracks needs to come to an end now.

  66. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Climate change policy is about how we redistribute the world’s wealth.

    --Ottmar Edenhoffer

    The leading global expert on climate change policy, working for the IPCC, who produced the reports which informed the Paris Agreement drafting committee has been quite outspoken about the actual impact and goals of climate change research.

    But one has to be clear: we are effectively redistributing world wealth through climate policy. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy.

    First Source.

    Entertained yet? Is the leading expert on climate change policy who has been employed or advised nearly every major committee or conference enough to constitute "even in the same ballpark as reality?"

  67. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The other point is this:
    For each X of increased temperature there is a DOUBLING of C02 required.
    That means it's literally impossible for there to be a runaway greenhouse effect without infinite c02.
    We will run out of stuff to burn before we get anywhere near 4 or 5 doublings of the quantity of carbon dioxide

    For reference: we're at 450 right now.
    1x doubling is 900
    2x is 1800
    3x is 3600
    4x is 7200
    5x is 14400

    Those numbers are starting to get astronomically big,.

  68. You Disingenuous Lying Piece Of Shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fuck right off you disingenuous, lying, piece of shit.

    CFLs fail often and fail fast! I've had dozens of failures over the years.

    I stopped buy CFLs a several years back due to their terrible performance. Instead I opted to pay EVEN FUCKING MORE for LEDs and the failure rate on those may well be on par with the CFL failure rate, at thrice the cost. Light emitting diodes may last for a very long time, but the drivers necessary for them to work in bulbs burn out in no fucking time.

    So, fuck right off you lying disingenuous piece of shit.

    1. Re: You Disingenuous Lying Piece Of Shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The calm, well cited nature of the parent posts writing makes me believe him, as does the long history of honest and fair posting associated with his user id.

  69. IPCC based on 10,000's of papers by DogDude · · Score: 2

    You clearly don't understand how science works. The IPCC reports are based on TENS OF THOUSANDS of studies. So for you to point at one or two (or even a dozen) papers and say, "those don't work, so it's all fake" tells me that you either don't understand science, or you're intentionally trying to make shit up.

    --
    I don't respond to AC's.
    1. Re:IPCC based on 10,000's of papers by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Yeah I guess so. I mean there was all that work done on the photo electric effect, Brownian Motion, black body radiation, the shape of benzene, what constituted organic chemistry (hint it has nothing to do with life), Shape of the universe, origin of the universe well you get the drift. Thousands and Thousands and Thousands of papers and studies. Hell the proton and the neutron used to be fundamental particles and neutrinos massless, and until a few years ago the earth had only 7 continents. OOPS missed a continent there.

      But one thing I do know, is if you go back and retroactively adjust your data to make it fit, that's not science that's fraud. As a friend of mine who works in pharma pointed out, "If he did that to data a few months old he would be in jail". Go figure.

      Oh P.S. wasn't it scientific consensus that light traveled through the Luminous Aether ? Just if you are going to go for broke on being an idiot by lecturing people on things you obviously know nothing about.

    2. Re:IPCC based on 10,000's of papers by DogDude · · Score: 1

      So, then, this whole "retroactively adjusting data to make it fit" thing that you claim to have found... that's in all 9,200 papers the 831 members of the IPCC reviewed in the latest report? It is, right? You're not calling me an idiot for finding a supposed problem in 0.0001% of the studies and then calling it all "fake news", right?

      --
      I don't respond to AC's.
  70. It's a range the Green New Deal can fix by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's fairly simple to cut your individual emissions to about 1/10th of what they were. I personally cut mine to 1/20th, by some fairly simple measures. And, bizarrely, almost all of the actions taken SAVED ME MONEY.

    Things like buying some solar panels in bulk (my house was built in 2000, so it can support solar panels and the electrical has to be able to deal with it. Replacing an old gas furnace with a more efficient two-phase one (the old one only had instant on full blast fans), replacing lightbulbs everywhere (dramatic drop from that, my new LEDs even include external floods that are way brighter than the old incandescent ones, but use 1/6th the energy, trick is to buy them in bulk when they have sales and replace from the ones left on the most to the ones used the least), new fridge/stove/washer/dryer (pro tip: buy the most efficient one, even if you don't get a discount from your utility, surprised how much that saved.

    We can rapidly remove all tax exemptions, deductions, and exclusions for all fossil fuel infrastructure. It's about 90 percent of the DOE budget. And create jobs - solar and wind combine very well for a good power curve, and they create a lot of local jobs and income stream for farmers and ranchers. Just covering irrigation canals with solar panels reduces evaporation and reduces salt impact on your crops.

    We fought both the Nazis and Japan in WW II. We can easily do this.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
    1. Re:It's a range the Green New Deal can fix by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I rent, I can't do any of this.

    2. Re:It's a range the Green New Deal can fix by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

      Yes, you can. Most of the people I know who rent replace their lightbulbs with LEDs, since they pay utilities. Then when they move they put back the incandescent or CFL bulbs that used to be there, if they're expensive LEDs. The average LED 60 watt equiv runs around 80 to 99 cents on sale, so those get left behind.

      --
      -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
    3. Re:It's a range the Green New Deal can fix by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      *My* problem with all these "green jobs" is that since there's apparently going to be so many more people on the power companies' payrolls, electricity prices are going to skyrocket.

      Seriously, where's that money for all these "high paying jobs" going to come from?

    4. Re:It's a range the Green New Deal can fix by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

      Evidence shows that doesn't occur. Since renewable energy is so much cheaper compared to fossil fuel technologies, your basic costs are repair from fires floods and quakes, same as any electrical infrastructure. Wind has turbine blade replacement, as does tidal, but solar is basically pop in the tri inverter and the powerwall equivalent and it takes care of itself. The capital costs and the labor for installation are the largest components, with the maintenance being fairly low.

      (sources: UW CEI)

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      -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  71. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by slashdot_commentator · · Score: 1

    Leave it to a denialist to distort the statements that people say.

    This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy, with problems such as forest dying or ozone hole.

    He's merely differentiating using the free market to regulate gov't mandated carbon release restrictions from environmental issues. Reducing global warming with economic policy doesn't fix forests dying or ozone holes.

    This may be a useful article to illustrate what the Duplicitious Coward is trying to do.

    --
    There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, General Electric, and Exxon
  72. Re:What if... they can predict the weather? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Please remember "Weather isn't climate." when pointing to "record high temps", "New hurricanes", and "Record cold Winter" As those are weather as well.

    Chaos theory is described as a butterfly flaps its wings in China and there is a hurricane in Florida. As such, the climate is a chaotic system.

  73. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No. I'll take a man's actual words from an actual interview to determine what they said instead of some silly blog or your revisionist additions and willful ignoring of the rest of what was provably said.

  74. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm with the professor on this one, let them lead by example and stop using air conditioning in government office buildings.

  75. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    (and the experts)

    That's weird, because "The Experts" say otherwise.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqejXs7XgsU

    Oh, you meant to say your lying exerts.

    If you believe it's too late to do anything about it, then why are you bothering to write anything? Why are people still buying ocean front property? Why are people bothering to get a college degree? Why are people planning for retirement? Why are people getting married and having children? Yep life goes on in spite of the science mafia and leftist lies. Besides Al Gore said we would all be under water by 2013. Glub Glub. Nasa and Noa are doctoring the data every day to make the fake hockey stick - or didn't you know that. You can find pictures from 50 years ago and compare them with today and yep, no discernible difference in sea levels. Keep falling for their alarmism - that's how they get their money, hey even send them all your money if you feel you have to but leave my wallet alone. Yes, we deny your bs. Look at the book the grapes of wrath which talks about how hot was in the 30's and then wonder why we are saying it's hotter today. Nope the climate is not getting hotter, you're being lied to.

  76. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

    Yeah that would be the same guy who showed the hockey stick was B.S. while thousands climate scientists were pushing it like the second coming

    And he was wrong then, what makes you think he is right this time?

  77. OMG!1! Climate change! by TheGoodNamesWereGone · · Score: 0

    ... And the only solution is for Americans to freeze to death in the dark on public transit on their way to the tax offices to hand over their wealth for redistribution!

  78. Deniers Buried by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Until their are no more deniers. Look now you can have a consensus on your lies.

  79. So where is your money? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Kit up and put it in escrow, kid. Easy to bet someone else's money, isn't it? Not so easy to bet your own. Especially since you're getting 1-9 odds against you.

  80. Lie. Lots deny the climate changes. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They insist that it hasn't lasted even 10,000 years. Others deny the climate IS changing. Others deny that AGW can cause climate change (denying climate change too)

    You're a moron.

  81. You do realise the LIA was long before industrial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So it is meaningless for you to bullshit about that. Moreover,if we were coming out of an ice age, how come it's warmer than the MWP? Can't be coming out of an ice age when were already warmer than when you claim it was roasty-toasty, can we?

    Oh, and I'd like to see your proof that we were not out of a the LIA by 1850, plz.

  82. He just did. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hansen's 1988 paper. Go look it up 100% all in there.

  83. Re:the more the predictions fail, the worse they g by green1 · · Score: 1

    Already happened. Global warming is never talked about anymore. But currently all the money is in promoting AGW. You literally CANNOT be published unless you follow the doctrine. It's religion. Not science.

  84. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by slashdot_commentator · · Score: 1

    Its not my revisionist additions, its the OPs removal of words in a sentence, to distort the meaning. I took the trouble to get a translation of the webpage, and then read the interview.

    --
    There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, General Electric, and Exxon
  85. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You replaced a period with a comma, changing the meaning of the sentence. Then ignored this, which refutes your revision:

    But one has to be clear: we are effectively redistributing world wealth through climate policy. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy.

    Yeah, you are charging others with what you are guilty of and double down with ad hominem.

  86. neither is economics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And since we're bitching about stuff that is not math or science, neither is anything in Economics. Oh sure, you use math to add and subtract actual amounts of money, but you cannot make laws based in economics. At best you can make some predictions, but then that's statistics which is also not math or science. There is no "law" of supply and demand. Sometimes it doesn't work because anything in economics requires the perfectly nebulous "reasonable person" which no standard person exists to calibrate against. There's just no such thing since "reasonable" is a subjective measure. Economics and stats both can also be gamed. You cannot game Newton's Laws or the Laws of Thermodynamics. Let me know when we can avoid Conservation of Energy, Lenz Laws. But your money? Your stats? Let me know then answer you want and I'll make it happen. I've worked in a calibration lab my whole life. I can make the best pressure transducer fail and make the junkiest one pass like new. Thermometers are even easier.

    Why do you think the idiom "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" exists?

  87. You are straight disgusting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    EWW!!!!!!! EWWW EWWW EWW!!!! You do NOT kiss a whore on the mouth. You already have a good idea where it's been, you nasty fuck.

  88. if you measure things enough, you can control them by js290 · · Score: 1

    The particular brand of stupidity on display also points to another signal vanity of our time: the conviction that if you measure things enough, you can control them. http://bit.ly/1B1VhBx

    --
    "Tempers are wearing thin. Let's just hope some robot doesn't kill everybody." --Bender
  89. Promices Promices Promices by I+will+be+back · · Score: 1

    It's so cold in the winter and I'm still waiting for promised Global Warming ;(

  90. Re:the more the predictions fail, the worse they g by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

    Global warming is never talked

    Oh christ not this again. Global warming is happening and yes it is talked about. Guess what it causes: climage cha...

    But currently all the money is in promoting AGW.

    wait what? OK that's new. Do you know what the GW stands for in AGW? I'll give you a clue, it's something about warming globes.

    you literally CANNOT be published unless you follow the doctrine. It's religion. Not science.

    Much like you can't get published unless you follow the doctrine of globe Earth. Globe-earthism isn't science it's RELIGION. The earth is FLAT! WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!!!

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
  91. Re:In before the dishonest Republican incel denial by sysrammer · · Score: 1

    Yeah. Hard to love the message while hating the messenger. I sort of found myself in a situation like that at work. I had to start sneaking in ideas via alternate methods than direct communication. It sort of worked. Slowly.

    --
    His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
  92. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    Dude one of these somebody has to have a good explanation for why it's legitimate to adjust a particular from a century ago that was the warmest and would still be the warmest without applying that same adjustment over at least a wide swath of the data set if not the whole thing. The whole point of the GHCN is to have a consistent methodology over time.

  93. Re:Yeah let me know when revisions don't swamp dat by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    should read particular year.

  94. It "could" go up 1.5C? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What is the track record of these predictions being accurate?

  95. Worst case scenario on climate change! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The US Government's National Climate Assessment just came out with a report saying the worst case scenario for global climate change means the US has a 10% GDP decline over 80 years. Let's disregard the fact that an 80 year prediction is ludicrous and just take them on face value. If the worst case scenario is the US takes a 10% GDP hit over 80 years, then this is not a big problem. If someone told you that if the US had made different decisions 80 years ago, the GDP would be 10% higher, would you even notice? (Which is probably a true statement anyway.)

  96. So that's why you hate China by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Or alternatively, you hate China so that's why you made up a bullshit anecdote.

  97. Still don't know how science works ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    Let me know when they start making predictions that are actually accurate.

    Oh you didn't understand that's how science works did you ?

    1. Re:Still don't know how science works ? by DogDude · · Score: 1

      Ok, buddy. The world's scientist are wrong, and you're right. Thanks for that explanation.

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      I don't respond to AC's.
    2. Re:Still don't know how science works ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Ok, buddy. The world's scientist are wrong, and you're right. Thanks for that explanation.

      LOL yes that's because it's just me saying that "science works by making falsifiable predictions"

    3. Re:Still don't know how science works ? by DogDude · · Score: 1

      Yeah, dude. You got it all figured out, You outsmarted those thousands and thousands of dumb scientists. They were all trying to lie to you, but YOU figured out the TRUTH! Good for you!

      --
      I don't respond to AC's.
    4. Re:Still don't know how science works ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Yeah, dude. You got it all figured out, You outsmarted those thousands and thousands of dumb scientists.

      Sorry I didn't realize you were a religious fanatic. I should have known when you clearly had no idea what you are talking about.

      Feel free to continue thinking science works by consensus and because people agree things are so they are.

  98. Sun Spot Cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why are all the high temperature predictions made when we expect the next sunspot cycle to hit maximum. There were these same predictions for 2000, 2011, 2023? My dates are approximate, and don't exactly match the actual sunspot cycle.

    I am not saying that global warming is not happening, but why does all the hype happen when the sun is at this point in the solar cycle?